OFFICIAL 2016 FANTASY BASEBALL THREAD

Discussion in 'Sports & Training' started by h3at23, Mar 7, 2016.

  1. h3at23

    h3at23

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    LET'S GOOOOO



    Thinking of starting a money yahoo auction league. Need 10-12. Who's in?
     
  2. Mr.Guy

    Mr.Guy formerly timidtebow

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    I'm down
     
  3. h3at23

    h3at23

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    I know it's not Fantasy Football but I'm surprised how dead this thread is.

    I also need like 5 to fill up another league
     
  4. cubanref

    cubanref

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    I'm in
     
  5. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    I'm big on using sabermetrics to draft and decipher whether someone had a fluke season or sustainable one. Fangraphs.com is a clutch way to build a roster. I'm big on high wOBA guys with K% under 25% (I won't discriminate a guy like Stanton, Schwarber, Davis or Bryant however, but I would be careful adding multiple guys who strikeout close to 30% unless I'm in a 5x5 league that doesn't penalize K's) who hit at least 15-20 home runs. The key is making sure a power surge isn't an outlier though so I like to look at hard contact percentages and HR/FB rate. If the guy typically makes hard contact 30% of the time and his HR/FB rate is consistent throughout his career, the power seems real. If there's a sudden jump in HR/FB rate which wasn't meant by an adjustment in FB% (i.e. he typically hit FB's 20% of the time, but he altered his swing to hit them 40% of the time last year) I'd be a little weary. wRC+ is a valuable tool as well to gauge offensive output that I take note of. Pitching wise, I'm looking at FIP, xFIP, FIP- and SIERA to gauge whether a pitcher's ERA is real or based on luck/great defense. I want guys with high K%, BB% under 10% and LOB% in the high 70s. I also look at zone% and contact% to see if they're pitching less in the strikezone year over year or are allowing more contact. If they're allowing more contact, but it's met with a high GB% or GB/FB rate, I'm not too concerned.

    I personally don't see the allure in drafting a catcher before the last few rounds. I rather pass over Buster Posey for a power hitter or power pitcher and go after someone with a high OBP with great value later on (Yasmani Grandal, Blake Swihart potentially, Travis d'Arnaud, Yan Gomes even for his power). I think Jung Ho Kang has great value this year in the back end of a draft. I'd grab him, stash him on the DL for a couple of weeks and just pick up Alicdes Escobar or someone who doesn't strikeout a lot on the waiver wire for the time being. If you have access to an NA spot or two, you gotta stash Tyler Glasnow, Lucas Giolito, Jose Berrios, Alex Reyes, Julio Urias, AJ Reed, Tim Anderson, Josh Bell, Sean Manea, Trea Turner, Jose Peraza, Nomar Mazara or JP Crawford. Those are the few I can see being called up this year, be aware of the rest of the guys on the top 100 list:

    http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects

    I personally, unless it's a 5x5 league (which case I load up on power hitters (preferably high OBP ones), power pitchers, and moneyball guys who gets SBs (Wong, Yelich, Burns)), favor pitching early and getting crafty with offense. I look to draft a great hitter or two early, but overall, I want my team to have 5 No. 1 pitchers and ideally 2 premiere closers, plus one or two more very good closers. Ideal for me would be getting Wade Davis and Kimbrel, and backing them up with two or three of Dave Robertson and Jeurys Familia/Ken Giles/Cody Allen/Trevor Rosenthal/Zach Britton. I want my bench to be full of pitchers unless the settings of my league favors offense.


    Sleepers/value players I'm eying:

    Maikel Franco
    Christian Yelich
    Yung Joc Pederson (thinking bounce back year, K wise, plus he has tremendous SB upside that was repressed big time last year)
    Michael Conforto
    Jung Ho Kang
    Byron Buxton (late)
    Shin Soo Choo (high OBP guy)
    Ben Zobrist
    Lucas Duda
    Randal Grichuk
    Josh Reddick (low K%, decent OBP, good for 20 homers)
    Carlos Santana (high OBP, good for 20 HRs)
    Starlin Castro
    Wil Myers
    Alex Gordon
    Marcus Semien (good for HR's if you miss out on the better SS's)
    Curtis Granderson
    David Peralta
    Ender Inciarte
    Brandon Crawford
    A-Rod and Tex
    Dustin Pedroia
    Eugenio Suarez (like Semien)
    Jonathan Schoop (for pop)
    Steven Matz
    Luis Severino
    Aaron Nola
    Eduardo Rodriguez
    Brandon Finnegan
    Roberto Osuna
    Shelby Miller
    Yordano Ventura
    Joe Ross
    Carlos Carrasco
    Danny Salazar
    Marcus Stroman
    K-Rod (good for SV's as a third or fourth closer late)
    Jake Odorizzi
    Shawn Tolleson (same as K-Rod)
    Pat Corbin
    Carlos Martinez
    Lance McCullers

    Guys I'm avoiding

    Stephen Strasburg
    Charlie Blackmon
    Jose Altuve (just dont see the appeal with him and Blackmon as second rounders)
    Dee Gordon (same w Altuve)
    Jose Fernandez
    Ryan Braun
    CarGo (like Braun, this is someone I rather trade for at the deadline if he's on a bad team)
    Adam Jones (his peripherals label him overrated)
    Carlos Gomez (rather buy low on him during a slump)
    Jon Lester (rather have Cole Hamels at that ADP)
    Johnny Cueto (his elbow concerns me)
    Matt Kemp
    Jacoby Ellsbury
    Hunter Pence (rather just trade for him if he gets banged up than deal with him most likely getting hurt)
    Ben Revere (stupidest thing you can do is draft him for SB's when he's a platoon player with no pop and doesn't draw walks, grab Billy Burns a few rounds later instead)
    Jonathan Lucroy
    Big Papi
    Hanley Ramirez
    Masahiro Tanaka (like Strasburg, Cueto, and Fernandez that elbow scares me too much)
    Jonathan Papelbon (**** him)
    Jose Reyes (aside from sadly being washed up, he's gonna miss at least 50 games. I'd only grab him on the waiver wire and stash him after the draft)
    Jay Bruce (unless it's a 5x5 league and you're desperate for HRs)
    Taijuan Walker (he figures it out, he does it without me)
    Hisashi Iwakuma
    Scott Kazmir (if I draft him, I seriously would consider trading him after the All Star break as he's been shaky second half of the year)
    Brett Gardner (this wrist injury is peculiar, it wouldn't shock me if he played 100 games max this year)
    Corey Dickerson (not my type of player, would rather get Khris Davis a few rounds later)
    Gio Gonzalez (seriously just don't he sucks)
    Evan Gattis (only in a 5x5 for HRs)
    Matt Wieters (no interest in him)
    Panda Bear (just no)
     
    Last edited: Mar 10, 2016
    cubanref, AgentZero and highriser07 like this.
  6. AgentZero

    AgentZero

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    I've got my draft later this afternoon for my categories league. This year they changed AVG to OBP and OPS to SLG for batting categories. They also changed K to K/9, K/BB to IP, and W to QS (quality starts) for pitching categories.

    Anything/anyone I should be on the lookout for with these changes? Any tips I should keep in mind with these new categories?
     
  7. h3at23

    h3at23

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  8. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    started a keeper league last night and drafted

    Yasmani Grandal
    Freddie Freeman
    Ben Zobrist
    Xander Boaegartes
    Kyle Seager
    Mike Trout
    AJ Pollock
    David Peralta
    Yung Joc
    Addison Russell
    Mark Teixera
    Christian Yelich
    Delino Deshields
    Joey Gallo

    Jacob deGrom
    Gerritt Cole
    Chris Archer
    Jeurys Familia
    Dave Robertson
    Masahiro Tanaka
    Luis Severino
    Yordano Ventura
    Lucas Giolito
     
  9. highriser07

    highriser07

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    Predictions for Giolito? I scooped him and put him in my NA spot.
     
  10. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    Him and Julio Urias are the two best pitching prospects in the game. He'll be up in June after the super two bs. Urias who knows but he's been big league ready for over a year now.
     
  11. yvespo3

    yvespo3

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    Pick 2 keepers... Nelson Cruz-Kyle Schwarber-Dee Gordon

    Want to keep Gordon since that's a tough position to get production out off though
     
  12. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    Schwarber and Gordon is fine.
     
  13. tehbest13

    tehbest13

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  14. smoothop1432

    smoothop1432

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    I'd be down. Any Idea of draft date? I'll join but money has to be collected before start of draft. Not trynna deal with any shennigans 
     
  15. h3at23

    h3at23

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  16. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    This thread is too dead
     
  17. diewitsjames

    diewitsjames

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    would it be crazy to take donaldson 2nd pick over goldy/clay/harper? i just hate taking OF/SP/1B early because theres so many players that produce in these spots and 3B seems limited 
     
  18. highriser07

    highriser07

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    You could. But I'd personally rather have Goldy at 2
     
  19. johnnyredstorm

    johnnyredstorm

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    I like Donaldson third or fourth, but second, eh. It's doable, but I like Harper more.
     
  20. macbk

    macbk

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    I get the gripes for rostering two C's but I'm torn on dropping one of Russell Martin or Realmuto. If I dropped one, I would pick up Brandon Moss or Matt Adams to backup Belt at 1B.

    Thoughts?