Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[CP1708]

Kev, you like the pick then? I'm a little nervous about everyone saying he is without a true position. Can't catch full time, a little round for the outfield, and 1b is locked up by Rizzo, so where do we put him?

He kinda fits the DH profile more than anything.




Anyway, Neil Ramirez so far this year:

15 gms
13.1 Inn
6 hits
1 run (on a solo homer by Gordon Beckham)
4 walks
21 K's
.75 WHIP
.68 ERA

 

[CP1708]

For the Chicago Cubs, perhaps as much as any organization, how we evaluate what they did on the first day of the Draft will largely be impacted by what they do on days two and three.

As Luke wrote this morning, and as I followed up on each player, you can easily characterize the Cubs’ first two picks as completely reasonable on their own merits, regardless of slotting and bonus pools. However, in the current draft system, being able to sign players for under their slot value, and saving that money in your bonus pool for use elsewhere can make the later rounds far more interesting, and possibly successful. You’ve got to believe the Cubs are thinking that way today, as they’ve now a huge amount of projected flexibility to make “risky” “tough sign” picks today and tomorrow.

I hope that, by the time tomorrow afternoon rolls around, we see that yesterday’s picks were not only great on their own merit, but were part of a grander plan for the 2014 Draft.

As for today …

The (new) conventional wisdom is that it’s best to grab your Hail Mary types in rounds 11 and beyond, since, if you fail to sign them, you don’t lose any bonus pool space. The problem there, of course, is that every team knows this, and the best “tough signs” are quickly gobbled up before your team might have a chance to grab several of them.

To that end, if the Cubs are serious about getting some high-upside, tough-sign high school players, they may have to grab them today, and roll the dice on losing the pool space. The good news there is that the slots fall off rapidly today, and are well below $300,000 by the time you reach the sixth round. Of course, that’s also the area of the draft where teams are looking to grab college seniors, and save a couple hundred grand per round to use on other picks. Might the Cubs go against the grain, and use that range to get their tough signs? Before other teams have a chance to get them in rounds 11/12/13/14? Not a bad approach from my totally outsider perspective, but we’ll have to see.

I’ll confess that, while I am totally on board with the Cubs’ first two picks, both in terms of the slot approach and the actual talent of the players, seeing so many of the top high school arms fly quickly off the board in the second round made me nervous. Perhaps other teams aren’t as afraid of signability concerns as we once thought. Perhaps fewer of the top high school players will be there in the later rounds for the Cubs to use those draft savings. (Then again, if so many teams are using up their full slots early – as it seems like they are – then which players do fall should be there for the Cubs to grab.)

You see, it’s complicated, man? We can’t really judge the Cubs’ draft performance on Day One until we see what they do on Days Two and Three. And, even then, we don’t really know until we see how/if these guys sign. And, even then, we don’t really know until we see how they perform as pros. And, even then … ok, I’ve gone down the rabbit hole.

I’ll end it there, and say simply: I’m very excited to see how the Cubs approach the day. I don’t think this front office would allow themselves to go cheap just for the sake of saving organizational money (and I really don’t think ownership would demand it – this is where the dollars are best spent right now, and everyone knows it).

As for what top players are still on the board, you can see BA’s thoughts here, MLB.com’s thoughts here, and MLB.com’s list of best available here.

I’ll keep a running update of the Cubs’ picks today here, with immediate reactions/links/scouting/etc. Away we go …

* * *

3rd Round (7: Mark Zagunis, C, Virginia Tech - A righty batter who has come on offensively of late, Zagunis is a junior whom MLB.com describes thusly: “The ACC standout has shown a propensity for putting the ball in play and hitting for average, albeit from a slightly unusual setup. He’s shown some extra-base pop in the past, though not as much in 2014. He runs extremely well for a catcher and has shown that his athleticism plays well in the outfield. His arm is average but on target, and his other skills say he could stay behind the plate full-time. The team that believes he can continue to hit might think he has the chance to be an everyday backstop in the future, and it will draft him accordingly. At the very least, Zagunis’ versatility provides a team with options if catching doesn’t work out.” I’m assuming the Cubs are thinking Zagunis can stick at catcher, given where they’re selecting him. The bat looks good, but not overwhelmingly so.

BP’s take on Zagunis: “Zagunis has a limited track record behind the dish, forcing evaluators to project the skill set. He’s an above-average athlete who moves well and flashes arm strength, though a choppy transfer and release can sap its utility in-game. Offensively, Zagunis has a chance to hit for average with gap-to-gap pop and he runs surprisingly well for his size. He could slot into the third to fifth round and has a fallback as a utility player, with experience in the infield and outfield, if he doesn’t stick at the two spot.”

Zagunis was ranked 111 to BA and 149 to MLB.com, so this is a little higher than he was expected to go. I doubt he’s much of an under slot type, though. Cubs must simply like him right here, and didn’t want to risk that he’d be off the board by the 4th round, especially given the organizational need for catching.

On the year, Zagunis hit .330/.426/.426 with 32 walks and 20 strikeouts. Stole 16 bases in 19 attempts, too, which demonstrates his athleticism for a catcher.

4th Round (109): Carson Sands, LHP, Florida (HS) – And there’s your first high school arm for the Cubs, and Sands is one of the top ones. The 6’3″ 205lbs lefty is ranked 53 by MLB.com, 99 by BP, and 53 by BA. He’s committed to to Florida State, and here’s how MLB.com describes him: “Sands has seen his stock increase this spring. Sands’ rise has been partly attributable to the strength gains he has made over the past year. That led to a jump in his fastball velocity, and he now throws the pitch in the low 90s, regularly touching 94 mph. He also throws a solid 12-to-6 curveball and has a good feel for his changeup. He repeats his delivery well, allowing him to throw strikes with all three of his pitches. Sands’ strong season, size, stuff and projectability have helped push him up Draft boards as more scouts see him pitch.” You can fairly guess that he’s going to require above slot to sign, so there’s at least part of what was going on in those first two picks. Sands easily could have been a second rounder, and Kiley McDaniel guesses he’ll take double slot to sign (slot here is $480,600).

Baseball America had Sands as its fourth best available today, saying: “Sands, a Florida State commit, improved significantly as a senior, showing increased velocity, feel for pitching and two offspeed pitches that show at least average potential. After sitting 90-92 mph and touching 95 down the stretch, he showed reduced velocity in his final appearance of the spring at the Florida high school all-star event in Sebring, at 88-91 mph. ”

5th Round (139): Justin Steele, LHP, Mississippi (HS) – Another southern high school lefty. Steele is ranked 121 by BA, 122 to MLB.com, but 68 to BP. He’s 6’1″ 180lbs, and MLB.com describes him this way: “Steele baffled scouts at the East Coast Professional Showcase last summer, when he ran his fastball into the low 90s but later dipped to the mid-80s. He has done a better job of holding his velocity this spring, working at 88-92 mph and reaching back for 94-95 on occasion. He’s better when he throws with less effort in his delivery and gets more quality life on his heater. Steele’s curveball used to stick out more for its shape than its velocity, but he has boosted it from the upper 60s to the low 70s as a senior. His changeup has some movement, but the Southern Mississippi recruit tips it off by slowing his arm speed and doesn’t trust it much. Though he’s athletic, his lack of size and true command could have him destined for the bullpen.” Perhaps not a clear over slot guy, but maybe slightly. He’s currently a Southern Mississippi commit.

Here’s BP’s take, in part: “Steele had evaluators flocking to the Magnolia State when word got out the projectable lefty was hitting the mid-90s with his fastball earlier this spring. He’s not yet physical enough to maintain that velocity deep into starts, and some question whether he won’t ultimately profile best as a power reliever given his size. Most, however, point to a frame that should add strength and an easy motion that bodes well for future advancement of his offerings and command. His breaking ball is a second potential above-average offering to go with the fastball, which could be a consistent plus offering as he gets stronger. There’s feel for a changeup, but the command and consistency is below average at present.”

Steele is already almost 19, so he’s on the older end for high school draft prospects. All in all, another nice lefty pitching prospect, and sounds about right given the Cubs’ approach so far in the draft.

 

[CP1708]

I'm borrowing this from Pro in the MLB thread.

Rebuilding organizations frequently shop their short-term assets to support the cause. Major League Baseball’s worst team, the Chicago Cubs, are proud employers of Jeff Samardzija and less than proud owners of a .370 winning average. The Shark’s contract will expire at the conclusion of the 2015 season, which should predate the club’s success. While Chicago has the financial ability to extend him, it’s likely he’s traded at the July deadline.

Based on Marc Hulet’s pre-season Top 100, the Cubs’ farm system is stacked. Their 7 prospects were the most of any team (tied with Boston) and 5 of their Cubs’ hitters were ranked within the Top 52. Rumors suggest the Cubs would like to add an arm to their cadre of budding stars.

***
1. The Toronto Blue Jays
Why: The Jays have been linked to Samardzija for weeks and they could use the his help. The Blue Jays rank 19th in RA/G and could use a replacement for J.A. Happ and/or Dustin McGowan. The combination of desperation and a difficult division makes than a likely front-runner.

Aaron Sanchez (Profile)
Level: Double-A Age: 23 Top-15: 1st Top-100: 22nd
Line: 54.1 IP, 4.65 FIP, 7.12 K/9, 6.14 BB/9, 0.33 HR/9 (.270 BABIP)

Summary
Untouchable during the R.A. Dickey trade, his 2014 performance no longer justifies that tag. Sanchez’s primary issue has always been his inability to consistently throw strikes. Sanchez suffers from a common ailment; many top starters battle control issues in the minor leagues, but Sanchez has shown little improvement over the years. The competition for Samardzija, who is relatively inexpensive at $5.35M, may be so tough that Sanchez may not satisfy the Cubs as their keystone piece.

2. The Colorado Rockies
Why: The Rockies’ run prevention has been better than predicted but still ranks near the bottom in baseball, projections aren’t favorable, either. They are nearly 10 games behind the Giants, but the NL Wild Card is wide-open. A half-season trade would be unwise, but with Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in their primes, acquiring Samardzija wouldn’t be crazy.

Eddie Butler (Profile)
Level: MLB Age: 23 Top-15: 1st Top-100: 15th
Line: (Triple-A) 68.1 IP, 3.31 FIP, 5.24 K/9, 2.49 BB/9, 0.39 HR/9 (.269 BABIP)

Summary
Butler had a meteoric rise up the prospect charts before finishing 15th on Hulet’s pre-season rankings. 2014 has been successful enough to earn his Major League debut on Friday, but it isn’t without blemishes. While Butler’s ERA is a sterling 2.49, it’s the product of an unsustainable home run rate. The major cause for concern is how his strikeout rate has plummeted nearly 3 full points. The spectrum of pitching prospects’ initial success is vast. If Butler joins those who have had a poor initial start and can’t fill the Rockies’ need himself, he could be the perfect piece for the Cubs.

3. The Baltimore Orioles
Why: The Orioles trail the Jays by 3 games in the loss column and, like everyone else, are in the thick of the wildcard hunt. Their rotation is filled with league average or starters, so the Shark would easily become their ace.

Dylan Bundy (Profile)
Level: Disabled List (Tommy John) Age: 20 Top-15: 2nd Top-100: 25th
Line: (N/A)

Kevin Gausman (Profile)
Level: MLB/Triple-A Age: 23 Top-15: 2nd Top-100: 25th
Line: (Triple-A) 41.1 IP, 3.48 FIP, 9.15 K/9, 3.70 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9 (.290 BABIP)

Hunter Harvey (Profile)
Level: Single-A Age: 19 Top-15: 5th Top-100: 82nd
Line: 53.2 IP, 3.42 FIP, 10.73 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 0.34 HR/9 (.244 BABIP)

Summary
When Hulet’s mid-season list is published, these three will could feature among the top 10 arms in the minor leagues. Currently, Harvey is receiving the most ink because Bundy is recovering from Tommy John surgery and Gausman’s 2014 MLB spot-start was as poor as his debut. That isn’t to imply Harvey is undeserving of the press, his present poise and command are rare for recent draftee with electric stuff. If the Orioles want Samardzija, they need to deal one of the three. With Bundy recoving and Gausman the most likely to help their 2014 playoff push, my money would on Harvey.

Had no idea Bundy was having Tommy John.

 

[sportsjunkie]

i dont think the cubs farm system ever been this stacked. i just pray Theo and Jed dont lose their job down the road and another guy comes in and rep the benefits of the hard work they put in.

 

[CP1708]

John Manuel ‏@johnmanuelba 5m
Think #Cubs are killing it today. Every player they picked in 1st 7 rounds was in top 200 of BA. If they sign 'em all, big day #mlbdraft

 

[CP1708]

6th Round (169): Dylan Cease, RHP, Georgia (HS) – Hoo boy, here’s another big-time over slot type. Cease is a big-ish righty (6’1″ 170lbs) who was among the hardest throwing high schoolers in the draft. The problem? He hurt is elbow before the draft, is a Vanderbilt commit, and will be very tough to sign. Here’s MLB.com’s take: Cease is one of the hardest throwing high school pitchers in the 2014 Draft class, but he was dealt a significant setback this spring. He suffered an elbow injury that has kept him off the mound since March, leaving his future uncertain. When healthy, Cease throws his fastball from 91-95 mph, topping out at 97 mph. He doesn’t have a physical frame, instead generating his velocity with athleticism and arm speed. There is some effort to his delivery, and the rest of his game may remain inconsistent until he refines it. His mid-70s curveball will range from a below-average to an above-average pitch, and his changeup shows flashes of becoming an effective offering, but he’ll need to throw it more often.”

Cease hasn’t pitched in several months (though he’s reportedly been throwing again lately), and Tommy John surgery remains a possibility according to the MLB.com broadcast crew, so there’s a lot of risk here, even as there is a ton of upside. Cease is ranked 76 to MLB.com, 77 to BA, and 64 to BP. That’s all after the elbow injury, though. Before it, he was a clear first rounder.

It’s confirmed at this point that the Cubs were planning to save funds in the first two rounds to go after top high schoolers later. We suspected as much, and, this morning, I took a guess that the Cubs might start making these picks in the early rounds today (rather than risking waiting until Round 11, as many other teams do). Slot at 6 for the Cubs is $269,500, which is the amount the Cubs would lose from their pool if they can’t sign Cease. That’s a bit to risk, but, given how much they’ve probably saved already, even if they can’t sign Cease, they probably can still have room to sign Steele and Sands. If the Cubs had waited until Round 11 to try and grab Cease, someone else may have already pulled the trigger. I like them taking the chance here.

7th Round (199): James Norwood, RHP, St. Louis U. – A junior righty, Norwood is another guy who is a nice value at this spot, and who might cost above slot to sign. Norwood is the 79th prospect to BA, 121st to BP, and 119 to MLB.com. Here’s the latter entities take: “He figures to go in the first three to five rounds after displaying one of the best fastballs among college starters in this year’s class. Norwood’s fastball has been clocked up to 98 mph, and he usually operates at 91-95 with some sinking and tailing action. He doesn’t miss as many bats as that velocity indicates he should, because he lacks a quality secondary pitch to keep hitters from focusing on his fastball. He probably would be better off working on one breaking ball rather than throwing both a curveball and a hard cutter/slider, and his changeup is still a work in progress. Though he has a strong build, Norwood features enough effort in his delivery to raise questions about his long-term durability as a starter. He’ll remain in the rotation for now, but his ability to refine his secondary offerings will determine his ultimate role.”

Norwood hurt his elbow last year, and that obviously dinged his draft stock this year. Once he wasn’t taken in the first four rounds, I wonder if teams worried that they wouldn’t be able to sign him. The Cubs are in a position to take guys like that, so this is a great pick at this point in the draft.

In 2014, Norwood threw 94 innings, posting a 2.68 ERA, striking out 64 and walking 28.

8th Round (229): Tommy Thorpe, LHP, U. Oregon – A college pitcher is not a surprise here, but it’s not a senior sign type. Thorpe is a junior, and he was Oregon’s top starting pitcher this year. That said, he doesn’t show up on the top prospect lists (and BA goes 500 deep), so there might be an under slot opportunity here. Thorpe was a first team All-Pac 10 guy last year, and he put up a 2.14 ERA over 105 innings this year. He struck out 90 and walked 33. He’s listed at 6’0″ 193lbs, so he’s not a super tall guy, and Jim Callis said on the broadcast that there’s not a ton of velocity there. He just pitches well, and has had college success.

 

[CP1708]

In a 1-0 game, Neil Ramirez comes in, faces two batters, two K's.

 

[sportsjunkie]

The Cubs on a 5 game winning streak.smoking The bullpen is looking good. BLESS YOU BOYS

 

[CP1708]

CHICAGO – The Chicago Cubs have put together a nice five-game winning streak -- Saturday's 5-2 defeat of the Miami Marlins the latest in that string -- and earned their third and fourth series victories of the season in the process. They’re getting strong starting pitching; their young, powerful bullpen arms have delivered impressive performances; and the offense has given the fans some excitement with a pair of walk-off wins.

However, the focus this weekend wasn’t on the suddenly strong play of the big league club. A Cubs organization that is still squarely focused on the future wrapped up 40 rounds of the draft Saturday afternoon, the first 10 of which might turn out being one of the stronger in all of baseball.

Scouting director Jason McLeod seemed pleased with how things turned out.

“It’s been a good couple days for us,” McLeod said. “We’re excited about the guys we were able to draft over these three days. We felt [Friday] we were able to get some high-upside, talented, young high school pitchers mixed in with the college group that we did. I said a couple days ago that we were going to make a run on pitching and certainly we’ve done that.”

The Cubs used eight of the first 10 selections on pitchers and at one point drafted nine consecutive arms. Many expected the run on pitching heading into the draft; the surprise was the selection of Kyle Schwarber, a catcher out of Indiana University, with the fourth overall pick.

It was suggested that the Cubs made the pick with the intention of signing Schwarber under his slot value while targeting a high-upside, over-slot high school arm in the second round. While Schwarber will likely come at a discount, the Cubs were adamant that the pick was made based on talent and not financials. However, they were certainly high on polished high schooler Jack Flaherty, but the Cardinals selected the California right-hander with the 34th pick. Unfazed, the Cubs quickly changed directions and took senior Jake Stinnett out of the University of Maryland with their second-round pick.

Normally in the draft, when a college senior is chosen, it’s assumed that the pick was made so the team could save some money and redistribute those funds toward other selections. However, Stinnett is a rare case.

“He was an athletic kid who was a conversion -- he went into Maryland as a third baseman/pitcher,” McLeod said. “So he doesn’t actually have as many innings under his belt as a lot of college pitchers do. This year was actually his first full season as a starting pitcher and he goes out and leads the ACC in strikeouts, big-time ground-ball rate, throws a lot of strikes. He’s already a physical guy that’s athletic and he’s a younger kid, for a fourth-year player in college, he’s actually at junior-age, he’s only 21. We felt all of those things lead to someone who’s still on the rise as a pitcher.”

[+] EnlargeKyle Schwarber
Larry Goren/Four Seam Images/AP Images
Kyle Schwarber appears headed for a corner-outfield spot when he enters the professional ranks after playing catcher and outfield at Indiana.
Chicago's focus on high-upside high school arms began in the fourth round with the selection of lefty Carson Sands. The Cubs tabbed another lefty in Justin Steele in fifth and right-handed fireballer Dylan Cease in the sixth. All three were rated higher than where they ended up being selected, with Cease possibly the best of the bunch, with a fastball that touches 97 and a solid curveball and changeup.

When picking high school players who fall in the draft due to contract demands, there’s always a concern about whether they’ll end up signing. Not only would failing to sign a player mean a wasted pick, but any player chosen in the first 10 rounds has a specific amount of money tied to his draft position. If such a players goes unsigned, the team loses both the player and its slot money, meaning the club won’t be able to redistribute those funds toward other picks.

“These are kids that were rated very highly and had strong college commitments,” McLeod said. “But, through the due diligence of our scouts -- communication [is important], certainly in this system of the draft, you have a pool of money, you have to work hard to make sure it fits within the parameters. And we did and we feel like we got three talented young players that we think we’ll be able to sign.”

Cease missed most of the season after suffering an elbow injury and opted to have platelet-rich plasma injections rather than surgery. However, McLeod said the team believes he’ll likely have to undergo some surgical procedure, possibly Tommy John, and made the pick with that in mind.

“We also know that coming into the year he was arguably a top-15-type pick in the draft,” McLeod said. “Where we were in that area of the draft, we felt that looking at who we selected, if we use our money wisely it's an opportunity there to hit real big. We know that there's risk, he's a high school right-hander, will probably have to have some sort of procedure on his arm. But to get that kind of talented player in the sixth round, we certainly felt it was worth it.”

McLeod also appeared quite optimistic that the Cubs would be able to sign their 22nd-round pick, Joey Martarano, a third baseman with huge power, who plays football at Boise State.

“We're going to make a good run at him,” McLeod said of Martarano, who is slated to be a redshirt freshman linebacker in the 2014 season. “It's a different situation there in that they don't have baseball at that school, but he is a guy that was well-known on the amateur circuit in high school because he's so strong, physical, right-handed power. That one actually is one that we're going to try. It might be a situation where he plays football still and goes down and plays baseball in the summer.”

The selections of Martarano and Cease, along with the other high school arms, were all made possible by the fact that the Cubs took Schwarber and Stinnett early. However, McLeod reiterated that they didn’t reach for either, particularly Schwarber. McLeod surprised many Thursday when he said the powerful lefty was second on their draft board behind No. 1 overall pick Brady Aiken.

“I’ve always said, beauty is in the eye of the beholder, that certainly holds true in the draft,” McLeod said. “There may have been teams that had Kyle Schwarber 10th or 15th on their list, but, like I said, he was No. 2 on ours. You do your work on the signability, for sure, and what you think a player will sign for, you have those kinds of discussions. But that’s not what’s going to be the determining factor for us on where we’re going to place a guy on the board or if we’ll pick him.”

Despite being pretty athletic for his 240-pound build, it’s likely Schwarber will have to move from behind the plate and into a corner outfield spot, with left field being the probable destination. After selecting Schwarber on Thursday, McLeod admitted that he might move quickly through the system, but cautioned about setting expectations too high.

“I think Kris Bryant has set the bar high and really we need to step back and look at some reality,” McLeod said after Thursday’s first round. “I don’t want people think he’s going to be in double-A, doing what Kris is doing, this time next year. But we do feel, with his profile and the way that he handles himself as a hitter, that he can move pretty quickly.”

Bryant, one of the top prospects in all of baseball, continues to light up the Southern League and went 3-for-3 with a home run, a double and a walk Saturday, bringing his season line up to an eye-popping .353/.460/.701.

Despite their recent winning ways, Jeff Samardzija, who tossed seven strong innings in Saturday’s victory over the Marlins, and the rest of the big league Cubs aren’t bothered that the attention appears to be focused on the kids. In fact, they look forward to the day when guys like Schwarber and Bryant get to Wrigley nearly as much as the fans.

“I think we all know what we have coming in the minor leagues and I think everyone’s excited to show what they have,” Samardzija said. “Then when they start coming, we’re all a part of it. That’s what everyone wants. You don’t want to put all this hard work in and battle to where we’ve been to where we are now with help coming, then not be a part of it. So everybody’s excited and is just ready to keep this going.”

While he took an optimistic tone Saturday, it’d be an upset if Samardzija is around when the kids arrive, as many expect him to be dealt this summer. However, with the likes of Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro producing at a high level, there appears to be some legit talent at the big league level for the kids coming through the system to complement.

And though the Cubs still sit nine games below .500 and near the bottom of the National League, a five-game winning streak and a fruitful draft left many pointing toward a future that could be bright sooner rather than later at Wrigley Field.

 

[CP1708]

CHICAGO -- The goal from the beginning for Theo Epstein and Co. has been to infuse the Cubs' organization with pitching.

The Cubs continued that trend this week in Major League Baseball's First-Year Player Draft, using 10 of their first 12 picks on arms -- many of whom possess high upside.

"We're really excited about the players we were able to draft over these three days, obviously going back to Day 1 on Thursday," Cubs senior vice president of player development and scouting Jason McLeod said Saturday. "We thought yesterday we were able to get some really high-upside, talented high school pitchers mixed in with the college group we did.

"I said here a couple days ago we were going to make a run on pitching, and certainly we've done that and it's continued into today."

The Cubs selected 21 pitchers (17 right-handers, four lefties), seven catchers, six outfielders and six infielders. Twenty-two of the picks were college players, while five were junior college players. Thirteen were high schoolers.

Though the Cubs selected two catchers with their first three picks -- Indiana's Kyle Schwarber fourth overall and Virginia Tech's Mark Zagunis in the third round -- they took pitchers in rounds 4-12.

The top pitcher selected was Maryland right-hander Jake Stinnett (second round), who on Saturday earned the victory over Virginia in the Super Regionals. Stinnett is a physical pitcher who led the ACC in strikeouts this year and is a pitcher McLeod and the Cubs feel is "on the rise."

The Cubs also took a trio of highly-rated high school arms -- left-hander Carson Sands (fourth), lefty Justin Steele (fifth) and righty Dillon Cease (sixth) -- to join a trio of college aces -- St. Louis right-hander James Norwood (seventh), Oregon lefty Tommy Thorpe (eighth) and Arizona righty James Farris (ninth).

The high school trio was highly rated, but fell due to signing concerns. With Zagunis reportedly agreeing to a $615,000 deal, which is under the $714,900 pick value, the Cubs figure to have wiggle room to sign the young trio.

"In this system of the Draft, you have a pool of money and you have to really work hard to make sure it all fits within the parameters ... and we did," said McLeod, who would not confirm the Zagunis deal.

"We got three young players we think we're going to be able to sign."

Cease, a starter at Milton (Ga.) High School, was one of the hardest-throwing high school pitchers in the Draft class. However, this spring, he had an elbow injury -- a partial tear of the UCL -- that kept him off the mound since March. He chose not to have Tommy John surgery, but the injury allowed him to fall to the Cubs.

"We know that there's risks -- he's a high school right-hander that will probably have to have some procedure on his arm -- but to get that kind of talented player in the sixth round, we certainly felt it was worth it," McLeod said.

A few notable late-round picks include:

• 21st-rounder Charles White, Stinnett's teammate at Maryland and a native of Naperville, Ill.

• 22nd-rounder Joey Martarano, a linebacker at Boise State -- which doesn't have a baseball program.

• 23rd-rounder Isiah Gilliam, a young high school outfielder who was recently reclassified to the 2014 Draft class.

• 30th-rounder Michael Cantu, a catcher out of Foy H. Moody (Texas) High School who was ranked as MLB.com's 139th prospect and is committed to Texas.

But the focus, for the third straight Draft, was pitching. And while the Cubs' farm system is healthier in terms of arms, McLeod said pitching is always going to be a key part of the Draft.

"I don't ever feel [like] you have enough depth, but certainly we've hit it hard now in our third Draft and now we're starting to see some of that get to the upper levels," McLeod said. "That's what you hope for, is now you get to a level and you have prospects there, and we feel like we have that right now.

"Of course it's still going to be a focus for us always, and that played out again in this year's Draft drafting pitchers we did."

 

[CP1708]

The Cubs have the fourth overall pick in the 2014 MLB amateur draft, one year after taking Kris Bryant with the second pick. As the Cubs’ 2014 record sits at the bottom of the league, it would appear that another top ten pick will be forthcoming in June of 2015. So that’s good…right? Of course it is…it just means we fans are suffering through another horrendous season. If the Cubs lose 90 games this year…it will be for the fourth straight season! This is a feat they have NEVER accomplished in their history…the worst four year stretch ever! When researching for my book, I was constantly amazed at the futility I uncovered in the teams’ history…like never placing above 5th from 1945 to 1966! Yet, in terms of won-loss record, we are at the nethermost point in the history of the Chicago National League ball club.

Ah, but there is a method to this madness! While Theo, Jed and company may not be directly saying “we are trying to get high draft picks”…even a modest fan recognizes that they have punted the last few seasons. That has left many a Cubs’ fan to question this strategy. Will picks like Albert Almora, picked sixth overall, and Bryant finally lead to sustained success? As Cubs’ fans, we naturally answer… “No!” (Actually, you would use a four letter expletive in front of that “no”.)

The MLB draft is a crapshoot…right? A team is more likely to draft a complete bust as a prospective Hall of Famer. A players’ future ability in baseball is tougher to project than in any other sport. The MLB draft is much different than the NBA or NFL. You have probably heard similar statements over the years, and there is some truth and wisdom to them.

…but it’s changing.

For the Daft Drafts chapter of my book, I researched every single Cub’s draft since the inaugural 1965 edition….and I discovered the Cubs have drafted (wait for it)…you guessed it…badly. Actually “badly” may be too soft, let’s say their draft record as been putrid. (Yeah, that sounds worse!) Just to emphasize this point, here are all top ten picks in Cubs’ history(see how many you remember, and how many you say “Who the hell is that?”): Rick James, Dean Burk, Terry Hughes, Scot Thompson, Brian Rosinski, Herman Segelke, Joe Carter (hey, there’s a good one), Shawon Dunston, Derrick May, Drew Hall, Mike Harkey, Earl Cunningham, Kerry Wood, Corey Patterson, Luis Montanez, Mark Prior (wow, my shoulder actually hurt while I typed that) Ryan Harvey, Josh Vitters, Javier Baez, Albert Almora and Kris Bryant.

Wow…there is a whole lot of nothing in those early years. Here’s the catch though, while the Cubs have historically been awful at drafting (buy my book for more details)…the draft itself has evolved. Most teams draft histories do have their share of busts and WTF’s. It has only been with improved scouting, technology, and research that the draft has now improved for all teams. Therefore, when mistakes are made at the top of the draft, it is now more likely to be a collective mistake. Thus, I state that a top ten pick in 2014 is more valuable than such a pick was just over a decade ago. Can I back these statements up? Well, I will attempt to do so by using the last 25 years of draft history.

Here are players drafted 1-10 from 1990 -2000 who had a career WAR above 10. If you don’t speak Saber, this would essentially be the equivalent to five years as an average MLB player. I am only listing players with a 10+ war…which one would assume a top ten pick would be able to achieve.

1990-Chipper Jones, Mike Lieberthal, Alex Fernandez and Dan Wilson

1991-DiMitri Young and Joey Hamilton

1992-Phil Nevin and Derek Jeter

1993-Alex Rodriguez and Trot Nixon

1994- Dustin Hermanson and Todd Walker

1995-Darin Erstad, Kerry Wood, Todd Helton and Goeff Jenkins

1996-Kris Benson, Mark Kotsay and Eric Chavez

1997-J.D. Drew, Vernon Wells, Troy Glaus, Michael Cuddyer, and Jon Garland

1998-Pat Burrell, Mark Mulder and Carlos Pena

1999-Josh Hamilton, Josh Beckett, Barry Zito and Ben Sheets

2000-Adrian Gonzalez and Rocco Baldelli

Now, here is where I notice a shift…of the players listed from 1990-2000, putting the WAR criteria aside…who would you consider a “franchise” player? I see Hall of Famers Chipper and Jeter, ‘roid King A-Rod, Todd Helton, and Josh Beckett. There may be a couple to quibble about…like Adrian Gonzalez, or Mark Mulder…but that would be eleven drafts which yielded seven to eight great players. Now, let’s look at 2001-2007 using the same WAR criteria.

2001- Joe Mauer, Mark Prior(sigh) and Mark Texiera.

2002-B.J. Upton, Zack Greinke, Prince Fielder and Jeff Francis

2003-Rickie Weeks, Nick Markakis, Paul Maholm and Jon Danks

2004-Justin Verlander

2005-Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki and Andrew McCutcheon

2006- Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw, Tim Lincecum and Max Scherzer

2007- David Price, Matt Wieters and Madison Baumgarner

Of the players above, I would consider Mauer, Texeira, Greinke, Fielder, Verlander, Tulowitzki, McCutcheon, Longoria, Braun (hrrumph!)Kershaw, Lincecum, Scherzer, Price, and Baumgarner as great players. Let’s look at it this way:

CY YOUNG WINNERS DRAFTED WITHIN THE FIRST 10 PICKS FROM 1990-2000:

2002 Barry Zito

CY YOUNG WINNERS DRAFTED WITHIN THE FIRST 10 PICKS FROM 2001-2007:

2008 Tim Lincecum, 2009 Tim Lincecum, 2009 Zack Greinke, 2011 Clayton Kershaw, 2011 Justin Verlander, 2012 David Price, 2013 Clayton Kershaw and 2013 Max Scherzer.

In the American League four of the last five Cy Young award winners were top ten picks, four out of the last six in the National League. Without a doubt, top pitching is now identified more accurately than in previous years. As we continue to examine the drafts, the WAR criteria now becomes useless as many of the players are too young or still “prospects”…yet there are still some impressive names:

2008-Pedro Alvarez, Buster Posey, and Eric Hosmer

2009-Stephen Strasburg and Zack Wheeler

2010-Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Drew Pomeranz

2011-Gerrit Cole

Buster Posey has already won an MVP and has two World Series rings. Strasburg, Wheeler, Pomeranz and Cole are proving to be some of the best young pitchers in the game.

Please don’t misconstrue…I hate that the Cubs are as dreadful as they have been lately. It has become a struggle to even watch the current inclination. Yet if recent trends hold true, Bryant, Baez, Almora and whomever the Cubs select on Thursday night has a much better chance at success than the shameful list of Cubs’ top ten guys that were previously listed.

…yes, a low bar indeed.

So is “tanking” a good thing then? Will it be these high picks that finally make the Cubs perpetual winners? Unfortunately we will have to wait a few more years to find out.

(fill in your own clichéd joke about Cubs fans and their patience)

 

[CP1708]

Both Baez and Bryant homered last night, Bryant's was his 22nd of the year, most in the minors.

His splits as of right now .357/.460/.722 :x

Just absurd.

 

[CP1708]

The MLB Draft is a game of calculated gambling. Teams know the odds are against them, that most of the players they draft will never make the majors. They know that most of the ones that do make the majors will not have an impact there. They know that outside of the top few picks the chances of finding stardom are slim.

But they also know that Mike Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round (and we only go to forty rounds today). They know that Albert Pujols somehow slid to the 13th. They remember that Nolan Ryan came out of the 12th round, that Greg Maddux and Giancarlo Stanton were both a second rounders, that Ryne Sandberg went in the 20th, that Paul Goldschmidt went in the 8th round, and fairly recently that all world outfield Mike Trout somehow fell all the way to the 25th overall pick in the first before being drafted.

The odds are against any team finding one of those great later round picks in any given draft, but it does happen. And it only needs to happen once or twice to completely change the fortunes of a franchise. The draft, in other words, matters a great deal regardless of the long odds.

But because those odds exist, every team is trying to beat them. Every team is looking for that secret formula of scouting and strategy that will allow them to pick the most impact talent and find all those future stars that everyone else missed out on drafting. What is particularly interesting this year is that the strategy the Cubs chose to employ in the draft might just give us a clue as to the kind of team the Cubs are building at the major league level.

Before we get started, though, take a look at all the names. Get familiar with them. The Cubs drafted an impressive array of talent this past weekend, and even though not all will sign, some of these are names you are likely to hear a lot of over the next few years. Fans have every reason to be pretty happy.

There are some trends that emerged from the Cubs drafting this year, trends that I think are well worth surveying. And after that, we’ll dig into what those trends might have to say about the Cubs major league future.

Tall Pitchers

The Cubs drafted eight pitchers who stand 6’4″ or taller. I do not think that height is necessary for success as a starting pitcher, and based on some of their other moves I don’t think the Cubs feel that way either. It is inarguable, though, that tall pitchers do have a few potential advantages. Their height causes the ball to approach the plate on a steeper plane, for example, and that can make their pitches a little harder to track and to hit.

That height is not necessary for success, but unlike a good changeup it isn’t something that the Cubs teach a guy after the fact. A pitcher is tall, or he isn’t. If height can create an edge, and the Cubs want pitchers with all the edges they can get, then the Cubs will need to draft height. And draft height they did, to the tune of a full twenty percent of their picks.

Part Time Pitchers

The Cubs snagged a few collegiate pitchers who began their college careers as part time pitchers and part time players in the field, but who switched to pure pitching later on. As a result, these are pitchers with less wear on their arms and who have more upside to them than you expect from a college pitcher. Those are good things from the Cubs perspective.

The two biggest names who fall into this category are Jake Stinnett (Round 2) and Jordan Brink (Round 11). In both cases it looks like the Cubs found some excellent value.

More Power!

Do you know how to build the most impressive collection of power bats in the entire minor leagues? You concentrate on acquiring and developing power bats. And you don’t stop doing it.

The Cubs, already in possession of the most power-loaded farm system in baseball, drafted a lot more power hitters. Kyle Schwarber (Round 1) was the first of the new crop of sluggers to come off the board, but by the end of the draft he had been joined by such potential power guys as Kevonte Mitchell (Round 13), Joey Martarano (Round 22), Isiah Gilliam (Round 23), and Michael Cantu (Round 30).

Power is another one of those skills that can’t really be taught (although it can be improved to some degree). By loading up on another batch of potential sluggers, the Cubs have shown that they are continuing to remain committed to producing plenty of power from within their organization.

Ground Ball Pitchers

If you were watching video of the pitchers the Cubs drafted this weekend, you may have noticed a lot of sinking fastballs. Not every pitcher had the type of raw stuff that tends to generate grounders, but quite a few of them did. I would go so far as to suggest that the Cubs favored a good natural sink on a fastball over raw velocity. Add in the height factor and we find that the Cubs picked up an array of hurlers who throw ball into the bottom of the strike zone and often at a steeper downhill plane.

The Cubs almost certainly drafted that way in hopes that doing so would yield a higher rate of prospects reaching and succeeding in the majors, but I think their planning went beyond that. After all, the point of the draft is not to just find future major league talent, it is to find future major league for your team.

And that brings me to the matter of interpreting this draft within the context of the Cubs move more generally.

Reading the Draft

When we think of the NFL, we tend to think of systems. A particular coach or coordinator brings to a team his system of offense of defense, and players are acquired (via the draft or other means) who fit into that system. A team that is focused on running the ball is probably more likely to draft some offensive linemen than they are wide receivers, and a team that works to force turnovers will probably favor cornerbacks and safeties over a team whose defensive scheme is more to dominate the line of scrimmage. In the NFL that sort of thinking is par for the course and is a frequent topic of discussion during the draft.

But we don’t think that way in baseball. Most draft picks take four or five years to reach the majors, and in that time there is no telling what the major league team will look like. You can’t draft for the team you have, the thinking goes, so you just draft the best you can get and figure out where they all play later on.

I still agree with that thinking. And yet I am starting to suspect, strongly suspect, that the Cubs may be doing things a little differently. Perhaps because of the ground-up nature of the rebuild the Cubs chose to employ, or perhaps for some other reason, I am sympathetic to an argument that the Cubs are instilling an organizational system approach not too dissimilar from what we are used to seeing in the NFL, and that they are generally acquiring players who will fit into that system.

And the Cubs System, I think, is this:

Instead of going for the more conventional strikeout artists, load your pitching staff with excellent ground ball pitchers.
Support that pitching staff with the best infield defense you can realistically put on the field.

And pack as much power into your line up as you can.
There are some corollaries that emerge from this thinking, and I suspect they are just as important.

Speed on the basepaths is nice if you have it, but don’t go out of your way for it. Power (along with OBP) is the key to scoring runs in this system.
The outfield is a great place to stash good hitters who don’t play good enough infield defense, even if moving said hitter to the outfield hurts his apparent value.
Good infield defenders are sometimes not the best of hitters. When you find a guy who is both, grab him and lock him up (even if you could have found a better hitter at his position instead).

Good ground ball pitchers are often discarded by other teams because of their tendency to have fewer strikeouts and to allow more contact (and therefore more singles). This means you can sometimes build quality pitching staff fairly cheaply.

Not convinced? Well, neither am I to be honest. Not yet. But I wonder. Look what bats the Cubs have acquired via draft or trade in recent season (Olt, Bryant, Rizzo), for example. Look at the ground ball rates on some of the pitchers they have traded for (Hendricks, Arrieta). Look at the Cubs ability to produce some pretty good pitching staffs despite a high turnover rate on that staff year over year. Look at the types of players they are preferring in the draft.

It may very well be that a Cubs Systems is taking shape as we watch, a system that will produce a slugging team that relies on a ground ball-inducing rotation and a strong infield defense to keep their opponents off the board. I almost can’t wait to see if they continue this pattern through the 2014 trade season and into the 2015 draft.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

We're officially no longer the worst team in baseball .....










For the moment

 

[meyer23]

Yes, they are 

So we're clear, I've been and always will be a Cubs fan; they need time tho. 

Edit: to remove plate

 

[sportsjunkie]

nice picture

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Arrieta was dealing out there today...9k, 7 scoreless innings.
Castro smacked his 9th HR, but was subsequently plunked after that...kinda strange how they just ejected Hernandez after that without even warning him, didn't even look intentional to me.

Still hurts to see Ryno on the other side. The whole stupid Sveum project was never going to work, they should've just gave Ryno the chance....would've sold more seats and still give him the chance to grow with a young team.

 

[sportsjunkie]

Kris bryant won the Homerun derby on yesterday.

 

[CP1708]

And this #4 pick Schwarber is hitting like .800 with a couple homers already in Boise.

Baez hit a bomb to straight away center the other night as well.

 

[sportsjunkie]

And this #4 pick Schwarber is hitting like .800 with a couple homers already in Boise.

Baez hit a bomb to straight away center the other night as well.

Kyle had like 8 RBI in 3 games. they way he going. he will be moving up fast. Looks like Theo and Jed made another good pick. The farm system stack with talent. we should get more talent when we trade Jeff. Has the cubs farm system ever been this loaded? i cant recall so.

 

[CP1708]

Never.

Not even remotely close.

 

[proshares]

I'll be damned, a Cubs thread

How many members of the Chicago Cubs' "core four" will/should be in the majors at some point in 2014? How many will/should be in their starting lineup in 2015?

In 2014, none should. Javier Baez or Kris Bryant might be, but there's no good argument for either to be promoted this year.

In 2015, both Baez and Bryant will get there, probably before the All-Star break. Jorge Soler might join them if he can get himself on the field, but he's been hurt nearly all of the past calendar year.

 

[CP1708]

I told you in the MLB thread nobody talks to me in here, you need to pull thru.

I'm so ready to get these Shark and Hammel deals done so I can see what my future looks like even moreso.

 

[CP1708]

****

On the balance, it still remains the likeliest July outcome that Jeff Samardzija is pitching for another team come August. But, I’ve always kept a crack in the door for the possibility of an extension between the Cubs and Samardzija, and GM Jed Hoyer made sure to preserve that crack earlier this year, even as expectations of a trade swirled.

Well, Gordon Wittenmyer is here to offer hope to the true believers among you.

Writing for the Sun-Times, Wittenmyer reports that the Cubs have “quietly” reached out to Jeff Samardzija with a new contract offer. As you’ll recall, Samardzija is under team control through 2015, and the sides previously discussed an extension that was believed to be in the five-year, $55/$60 million range. At the time, that was far lower than what Samardzija was willing to accept, and that was the last we heard about numbers.

How much is the new offer? Wittenmyer can’t say for certain, but he hears that it’s five years and more than $60/$65 million, and at least one source indicated that the $17.5 million average annual value that Homer Bailey got in his extension with the Reds could be what it takes to get Samardzija to agree. I’m not sure Bailey is a perfect comp, on a performance basis, for Samardzija – heading into his extension, Bailey was a year younger, more consistent, and had slightly better peripherals – but I can understand why that’s where Samardzija would be pegging his own value.

The interesting thing about that Bailey extension is that, when Bailey inked it – before the season – it was hard to call it a comp on a dollar-for-dollar basis for Samardzija, because Bailey had just one year of team control left, and Samardzija had two. But, as this season has gone on, the comp starts to become slightly more relevant. That is not only because Samardzija has pitched like a stud this year (further lengthening his track record of Bailey-esque performance, if you want to put it that way), but also because Samardzija is getting closer to free agency.

In that regard, I wonder: if the Cubs are still willing to do a five-year extension on Samardzija, is it actually now longer than the five-year extension they were willing to do previously? In other words, the previous offer would have included 2014 and 2015 – years of team control already – and then three years of free agency (ages 29 through 33). If there is a current five-year offer on the table, perhaps it includes only 2015 and then four years of free agency. The latter would be for Samardzija’s ages 30 through 34 seasons, given the Cubs an “extra” year of control, but also Samardzija an extra year of big-money security in his mid-30s. (I wonder if the recent Justin Verlander struggles (before his huge extension even kicks in) are hanging in the minds of the Cubs and Samardzija.)

That is all to say, this may not simply be the Cubs taking a run at Samardzija with the same basic terms and a touch more money. This could actually be the Cubs, effectively, tacking on another year to their previous offer. That has the potential to be very significant, and could be enough to change Samardzija’s mind (especially when you consider his comments about wanting to be a part of a winner). Throw in a rash of pitcher injuries since the start of the year, the re-emergence of Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo, and a core that does look like it could plausibly compete in 2015 if the Cubs spend some money, and maybe this is all a different conversation than it was a few months ago.

If you were ballparking a reasonable Samardzija extension, using both projected WAR value (4.0 in 2015, and declining 0.5 WAR thereafter; using $6 million per win) and discounting for the 2015 arb year, plus scheduling out some standard backloading, it would probably look something like this:

2015: $9 million (remember, this is an arb-controlled year)
2016: $12 million
2017: $15 million
2018: $18 million
2019: $21 million

That’s a total of $75 million over the five years, which sounds about right as an understandable ceiling for the Cubs. That is not inclusive of any signing bonuses or options, which would likely be a part of the puzzle. (For reference, if Samardzija got Bailey’s $17.5 million AAV over five years, that would be $87.5 million. My guess is there are your bookends for the negotiation process, with the Cubs starting a little lower than $75 million, and the Samardzija camp starting a little higher than $87.5 million. That’s a fairly significant gap to bridge.)

So, do I think this extension business goes somewhere?

I still say probably not, even as I think a reasonable extension is the best outcome for everyone involved. At 29, Samardzija has only a few years of tip-top prime performance ahead of him (which is not to say he might not still be very valuable thereafter, too), and he has said that he doesn’t want to spend those years on a team that won’t be competitive. No one can blame him for feeling that way, and, unless the Cubs are going to do something inadvisably huge in an extension offer, I’m not sure I see Samardzija willing to sign on long-term right now.

I do think, however, based on everything above, that this could all be legitimate. That is to say, I don’t think the Cubs are merely re-approaching Samardzija about an extension to create additional trade leverage (“We still want to keep this guy long-term, so, if you want to acquire him, your offer better be over the top.”). Sure, the appearance of a legitimate extension possibility can help in trade talks, but I think this front office knows that Samardzija can be particularly valuable to this organization – at this point in time – over the next few years. Why not take at least one final, serious shot at re-signing him before proceeding with trade plans?

We’ll see if this goes anywhere beyond this one report. I suspect we’ll hear a touch more about in the coming weeks, but I tend to think trade rumors will remain the predominant Samardzija story line.

No no no no no no, please no. Make the trade, make the trade, trade trade trade.....

 

[sportsjunkie]

we need to trade jeff, Jackson and hammel. Keep loading up on farm talent.