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⭐ OFFICIAL 2020-2021 NBA Off-Season Thread: Olympics begin 7/23; NBA Draft 7/29⭐
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John Hollinger just wrote about the 4-10 seeds in the East today:
Good day. The Knicks are No. 4 in the East … and they’re tied in the loss column with the Bulls, who are in 10th.
That one piece of data is illustrative of the larger trend going on in the conference. Beyond the three teams that have established themselves as the conference’s true contenders (Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Brooklyn), the rest of this conference is a muddled mess, a Gordian knot of averageness.
Nowhere is that more evident than in the truly amazing seven-car pileup between fourth and 10th. Somehow, all seven of those teams have exactly 17 losses as of Monday morning, and it’s a glorious blend of overachievers and underachievers. Do you realize we could have Knicks-Hornets as the 4-5 series in the East? Celtics-Raptors in the play-in tournament? The Bulls prominently involved in May basketball? Right now it feels like anything is possible.
What do we make of this? As we approach the All-Star break and the theoretical midpoint of the season (although postponements mean less than half the schedule is complete), it’s important to remember it’s both early and late right now.
It’s early because most teams have only played about 33 games, meaning that fluky, non-predictive stuff can still have a fairly large impact on teams’ win-loss records. But it’s late because we’re only playing a 72-game season this year, so every game counts more … especially when one loss can move you six places in the standings.
Inevitably, some teams will separate themselves, both for good and bad. But as we head into the break, let’s take stock of our seven-team pileup and the two teams (Atlanta and Washington) with fairly legitimate aspirations of joining them.
As I see it, they fall into three groups:
Group 1: The insurgents
Nobody expected much from these teams coming into the season. Now? They might actually crash the playoff party. At this point, we’re essentially guaranteed to get at least one of the Knicks, Hornets and Bulls in the play-in tournament, and fairly likely to get at least two.
New York: Break up the Knicks! The unlikely fourth East team with a winning record as of today, at a mighty 18-17, New York is shockingly ahead of Boston, Miami and Toronto in the standings. Julius Randle has a strong case for winning the Most Improved Player trophy, Immanuel Quickley seems headed for first-team All-Rookie and Tom Thibodeau will be getting Coach of the Year votes. It’s one of the biggest stories of the first half of the season.
Pardon me, then, as my job requires me to be a bit of a killjoy. As our Seth Partnow recently noted, New York’s second-ranked defense is skating on some thin “ICE! ICE!” Basically, the Knicks have benefited hugely from opponent 3-point shooting variance that is almost certainly luck. Knicks’ opponents are only shooting 32.5 percent on 3s, by far the worst percentage in the league, and New York concedes more of these shots than all but three teams.
Historically, teams have near-zero control over opponent 3-point percentage, and if that number tilts back to the league average, New York’s thus-far elite defense will look a lot more average. That’s an issue because the Knicks have so much trouble scoring themselves: New York is 28th in 2-point percentage and last in 3-point attempts.
As a result, I think it’s highly unlikely the Knicks stay in the fourth position. Nonetheless, they already have banked 18 wins, and so the Knicks have to feel good about making the play-in at the very least. The remaining schedule is somewhat difficult but not insane. If it only takes, say, a dozen more wins to reach the play-in tournament, that seems completely reachable. At the end of the day, even reaching the top 10 in the East would be a major accomplishment given the expectations heading into this season.
Chicago: Of all the teams here, I probably have the most doubts about the Bulls. They’re hanging in at 15-17, with newly minted All-Star Zach LaVine playing every game and dragging the offense to league-average levels more or less by himself. Some other good stories are in there if you search hard enough: Thaddeus Young has enjoyed a renaissance as a small-ball five, Wendell Carter is starting to deliver on his promise and Lauri Markkanen should be back before long.
Alas, a first-half schedule heavy on Orlandos and Sacramentos is about to get much more fearsome. Chicago has three games apiece left against Brooklyn, Miami and Toronto, and two each against Utah, Boston, Denver, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. The Bulls also have more road games than home games and must wedge 38 games into their second half. They’re tied for ninth in the standings right now, but staying in the top 10 will be a challenge.
Charlotte: Of all the interlopers, Charlotte probably has the most reason for excitement. After Sunday’s near-miraculous comeback in Sacramento (they were down eight with 1 minute, 9 seconds left and had just committed a flagrant foul; amazingly, they won in regulation), the Bugs are 16-17 despite playing long stretches without a real center and getting mashed on the glass.
That’s still an issue. Charlotte is just 21st in defense and has benefitted from Jedi free-throw “defense.” (Charlotte opponents are just 73.7 percent from the line this season, including five Sacramento misses in Sunday night’s final minute.)
In other respects, however, they’re gaining steam. LaMelo Ball is averaging 20.1-6.2 -6.7 since his promotion to the starting lineup and seems a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year. Second-year pro P.J. Washington erupted for 42 points on Sunday. Other kids — Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, los hermanos Martin — are coming on too. It’s reasonable to think the post-break Hornets will be a better team than the pre-break Hornets.
Could Charlotte trade for a big and try to make a push for the top six spots? That still seems a bit far-fetched, but expecting this team to land in the play-in tournament is not. Surviving a brutal upcoming schedule will be key. Charlotte’s final 10 games are Charmin-soft, but first comes a trying gauntlet: 13 of the next 18 are on the road, including visits to both L.A. teams, Brooklyn and Milwaukee.
Group 2: The old guard
The other reason the East is a muddle is that some teams we expected to be good mostly haven’t been. Miami, Boston and Toronto were near-unanimous picks to make the playoffs and challenge for top-four seeds heading into the season, but each has underwhelmed thus far.
Miami: Winners of six straight now that it has shaken off a slew of injuries and a difficult early schedule, Miami also has the most favorable schedule of this group in the second half of the season. More importantly, the Heat are in a great position to add talent at the trade deadline if they choose to go that way. Overall, I’d be surprised if they don’t end up either fourth or fifth.
However, it would help if they stop turning the ball over so much. Miami is built more as an offensive team but ranks 24th in that department this year, highlighted by the league’s highest turnover rate and its second-lowest offensive rebound rate. It’s tough to score if you’re not shooting, and between turnovers and not rebounding, the Heat take fewer shots than any other team by a wide margin. Even when they do shoot, Miami’s 3-point shooters have been uncharacteristically ordinary this year; relocating the bubble versions of Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro would help quite a bit.
Toronto: The Raptors have the best resume thus far of any of these teams, even if they’re mired at 17-17 just like everybody else. The Raptors have outscored their opponents by 2.4 points per game and have only played 15 home games. Nonetheless, I’d be more confident in Toronto emerging at the top of this group if I knew what they were doing at the trade deadline. But with a middling record and Kyle Lowry’s free agency staring them in the face, it remains an open question whether the Raptors will make moves to gear up for next season rather than throw more resources into a push for fourth place.
Toronto has gained some momentum of late by abandoning playing a traditional center for long stretches and instead of having OG Anunoby as their “five,” spreading the floor and using their speed to cause havoc on defense. Pascal Siakam, after a slow start, also has relocated some of his mojo. Finally, the remaining schedule is very favorable, with no games left against the Bucks or Sixers and only one West trip.
Boston: Egads. As I noted two weeks ago, the Celtics get brilliant nightly efforts from All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but haven’t had a whole lot of help. The recent resurgence of Kemba Walker helps, but Boston will need to add pieces at the deadline to make a sustained charge. Their secondary pieces just aren’t good enough right now.
Boston needed to pull a rabbit out of a hat to survive against Washington on Sunday night, and even with that win is 17-17 with a point differential barely above water. The scary thing for Boston is not just its average record, but that it has the statistical profile of an average team. We don’t expect a Celtics team to rank 16th in defense, but there they are. Getting Marcus Smart back will help, but Boston’s record so far is mostly on merit.
I still expect the Celtics to emerge, at least somewhat and finish above most of this group. Boston is sitting on a huge trade exception and has all its own picks to use in trades, so midseason upgrades could easily be on the way. That said, it’s an uneasy time in Beantown. After three conference finals trips in four years, landing in, say, sixth isn’t really going to cut it.
Group 3: Whatever
It’s been a bumpy ride for these three teams, who don’t quite fit squarely into either of the first two groups.
Indiana: Losers of three in a row and eight of 11, the Pacers seemed to be cruising toward another mid-tier Eastern Conference playoff berth until recently. Now they’re stuck in a tie for ninth place at 15-17 despite underlying stats that paint a more positive picture.
The Pacers are at a bit of a danger point, actually, with an upcoming 10-game stretch as tough as any team will face all season: Two each against the Nuggets and Heat, plus the Lakers, Nets, Bucks, Suns and Sixers. Eight of them are on the road. Yikes.
That may set them several games below .500 temporarily, but it would still be an upset if they don’t land in the top eight by the time this is over. The Pacers can expect a major offensive boost when T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert return and can likely get a better version of Malcolm Brogdon when he’s not cracking under the strain of being their only threatening perimeter creator. Jeremy Lamb’s re-acclimation as he returns from a torn ACL should also help on this front.
For now, the bigger mystery is why they aren’t better defensively. With an awesome shot-blocker having his best season (Myles Turner), a crazy ball-pressure pest with a league-leading steal rate (T.J. McConnell) and several competent-to-good wings (most notably Justin Holiday), they should be better than 13th in defensive efficiency. Adding Warren and LeVert likely won’t help much at that end either.
Atlanta: The Hawks were supposed to be moving up in the world this season, and the fact they haven’t is generating some pointed questions. Atlanta has lost 11 of its last 16 games, turning up the Heat on coach Lloyd Pierce’s seat, and as our Chris Kirschner noted, the Hawks have lost 11 games this season where they led in the fourth quarter.
Surely, injuries haven’t helped. Bogdan Bogdanovic has only played nine games, while De’Andre Hunter’s breakout season was curtailed by a knee issue after 18. Kris Dunn, signed to add a defensive stopper, hasn’t played at all.
The Hawks’ recent skid corresponds exactly to when Hunter went out, leaving them scraping the barrel for rotation-caliber wing play in his absence. Getting Bogdanovic back should help, especially if he can play backup point guard too. Free-agent additions Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo have bombed, save for one glorious night from Gallinari, while lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu has hardly played.
Atlanta still has enough talent to get into the play-in tournament at the very least. It just hasn’t seemed like a team that’s primed for a charge to get there.
Washington: Left for dead at the bottom of the East, the Wizards have staged a fairly dramatic Lazarus act of late, and despite Sunday’s last-second failure in Boston, they have won seven of their past nine. Fortuitously, Washington’s next seven games are at home, giving the Wizards a decent shot at climbing back into the mix. Less fortuitously, they play Utah, Philadelphia, the Clippers and Milwaukee (twice!) in that stretch.
The Wizards still face the most uphill climb of any team here. They’ve been outscored by 4.2 points per game to date, which is a nice way of saying they have to play a whole lot better to win even half their remaining games, and if Bradley Beal has to miss any time, God bless. As long as Beal and Russell Westbrook can stay upright, however, give these Wizards a puncher’s chance.
That one piece of data is illustrative of the larger trend going on in the conference. Beyond the three teams that have established themselves as the conference’s true contenders (Milwaukee, Philadelphia and Brooklyn), the rest of this conference is a muddled mess, a Gordian knot of averageness.
Nowhere is that more evident than in the truly amazing seven-car pileup between fourth and 10th. Somehow, all seven of those teams have exactly 17 losses as of Monday morning, and it’s a glorious blend of overachievers and underachievers. Do you realize we could have Knicks-Hornets as the 4-5 series in the East? Celtics-Raptors in the play-in tournament? The Bulls prominently involved in May basketball? Right now it feels like anything is possible.
What do we make of this? As we approach the All-Star break and the theoretical midpoint of the season (although postponements mean less than half the schedule is complete), it’s important to remember it’s both early and late right now.
It’s early because most teams have only played about 33 games, meaning that fluky, non-predictive stuff can still have a fairly large impact on teams’ win-loss records. But it’s late because we’re only playing a 72-game season this year, so every game counts more … especially when one loss can move you six places in the standings.
Inevitably, some teams will separate themselves, both for good and bad. But as we head into the break, let’s take stock of our seven-team pileup and the two teams (Atlanta and Washington) with fairly legitimate aspirations of joining them.
As I see it, they fall into three groups:
Group 1: The insurgents
Nobody expected much from these teams coming into the season. Now? They might actually crash the playoff party. At this point, we’re essentially guaranteed to get at least one of the Knicks, Hornets and Bulls in the play-in tournament, and fairly likely to get at least two.
New York: Break up the Knicks! The unlikely fourth East team with a winning record as of today, at a mighty 18-17, New York is shockingly ahead of Boston, Miami and Toronto in the standings. Julius Randle has a strong case for winning the Most Improved Player trophy, Immanuel Quickley seems headed for first-team All-Rookie and Tom Thibodeau will be getting Coach of the Year votes. It’s one of the biggest stories of the first half of the season.
Pardon me, then, as my job requires me to be a bit of a killjoy. As our Seth Partnow recently noted, New York’s second-ranked defense is skating on some thin “ICE! ICE!” Basically, the Knicks have benefited hugely from opponent 3-point shooting variance that is almost certainly luck. Knicks’ opponents are only shooting 32.5 percent on 3s, by far the worst percentage in the league, and New York concedes more of these shots than all but three teams.
Historically, teams have near-zero control over opponent 3-point percentage, and if that number tilts back to the league average, New York’s thus-far elite defense will look a lot more average. That’s an issue because the Knicks have so much trouble scoring themselves: New York is 28th in 2-point percentage and last in 3-point attempts.
As a result, I think it’s highly unlikely the Knicks stay in the fourth position. Nonetheless, they already have banked 18 wins, and so the Knicks have to feel good about making the play-in at the very least. The remaining schedule is somewhat difficult but not insane. If it only takes, say, a dozen more wins to reach the play-in tournament, that seems completely reachable. At the end of the day, even reaching the top 10 in the East would be a major accomplishment given the expectations heading into this season.
Chicago: Of all the teams here, I probably have the most doubts about the Bulls. They’re hanging in at 15-17, with newly minted All-Star Zach LaVine playing every game and dragging the offense to league-average levels more or less by himself. Some other good stories are in there if you search hard enough: Thaddeus Young has enjoyed a renaissance as a small-ball five, Wendell Carter is starting to deliver on his promise and Lauri Markkanen should be back before long.
Alas, a first-half schedule heavy on Orlandos and Sacramentos is about to get much more fearsome. Chicago has three games apiece left against Brooklyn, Miami and Toronto, and two each against Utah, Boston, Denver, Philadelphia and Milwaukee. The Bulls also have more road games than home games and must wedge 38 games into their second half. They’re tied for ninth in the standings right now, but staying in the top 10 will be a challenge.
Charlotte: Of all the interlopers, Charlotte probably has the most reason for excitement. After Sunday’s near-miraculous comeback in Sacramento (they were down eight with 1 minute, 9 seconds left and had just committed a flagrant foul; amazingly, they won in regulation), the Bugs are 16-17 despite playing long stretches without a real center and getting mashed on the glass.
That’s still an issue. Charlotte is just 21st in defense and has benefitted from Jedi free-throw “defense.” (Charlotte opponents are just 73.7 percent from the line this season, including five Sacramento misses in Sunday night’s final minute.)
In other respects, however, they’re gaining steam. LaMelo Ball is averaging 20.1-6.2 -6.7 since his promotion to the starting lineup and seems a shoo-in for Rookie of the Year. Second-year pro P.J. Washington erupted for 42 points on Sunday. Other kids — Malik Monk, Miles Bridges, los hermanos Martin — are coming on too. It’s reasonable to think the post-break Hornets will be a better team than the pre-break Hornets.
Could Charlotte trade for a big and try to make a push for the top six spots? That still seems a bit far-fetched, but expecting this team to land in the play-in tournament is not. Surviving a brutal upcoming schedule will be key. Charlotte’s final 10 games are Charmin-soft, but first comes a trying gauntlet: 13 of the next 18 are on the road, including visits to both L.A. teams, Brooklyn and Milwaukee.
Group 2: The old guard
The other reason the East is a muddle is that some teams we expected to be good mostly haven’t been. Miami, Boston and Toronto were near-unanimous picks to make the playoffs and challenge for top-four seeds heading into the season, but each has underwhelmed thus far.
Miami: Winners of six straight now that it has shaken off a slew of injuries and a difficult early schedule, Miami also has the most favorable schedule of this group in the second half of the season. More importantly, the Heat are in a great position to add talent at the trade deadline if they choose to go that way. Overall, I’d be surprised if they don’t end up either fourth or fifth.
However, it would help if they stop turning the ball over so much. Miami is built more as an offensive team but ranks 24th in that department this year, highlighted by the league’s highest turnover rate and its second-lowest offensive rebound rate. It’s tough to score if you’re not shooting, and between turnovers and not rebounding, the Heat take fewer shots than any other team by a wide margin. Even when they do shoot, Miami’s 3-point shooters have been uncharacteristically ordinary this year; relocating the bubble versions of Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro would help quite a bit.
Toronto: The Raptors have the best resume thus far of any of these teams, even if they’re mired at 17-17 just like everybody else. The Raptors have outscored their opponents by 2.4 points per game and have only played 15 home games. Nonetheless, I’d be more confident in Toronto emerging at the top of this group if I knew what they were doing at the trade deadline. But with a middling record and Kyle Lowry’s free agency staring them in the face, it remains an open question whether the Raptors will make moves to gear up for next season rather than throw more resources into a push for fourth place.
Toronto has gained some momentum of late by abandoning playing a traditional center for long stretches and instead of having OG Anunoby as their “five,” spreading the floor and using their speed to cause havoc on defense. Pascal Siakam, after a slow start, also has relocated some of his mojo. Finally, the remaining schedule is very favorable, with no games left against the Bucks or Sixers and only one West trip.
Boston: Egads. As I noted two weeks ago, the Celtics get brilliant nightly efforts from All-Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown but haven’t had a whole lot of help. The recent resurgence of Kemba Walker helps, but Boston will need to add pieces at the deadline to make a sustained charge. Their secondary pieces just aren’t good enough right now.
Boston needed to pull a rabbit out of a hat to survive against Washington on Sunday night, and even with that win is 17-17 with a point differential barely above water. The scary thing for Boston is not just its average record, but that it has the statistical profile of an average team. We don’t expect a Celtics team to rank 16th in defense, but there they are. Getting Marcus Smart back will help, but Boston’s record so far is mostly on merit.
I still expect the Celtics to emerge, at least somewhat and finish above most of this group. Boston is sitting on a huge trade exception and has all its own picks to use in trades, so midseason upgrades could easily be on the way. That said, it’s an uneasy time in Beantown. After three conference finals trips in four years, landing in, say, sixth isn’t really going to cut it.
Group 3: Whatever
It’s been a bumpy ride for these three teams, who don’t quite fit squarely into either of the first two groups.
Indiana: Losers of three in a row and eight of 11, the Pacers seemed to be cruising toward another mid-tier Eastern Conference playoff berth until recently. Now they’re stuck in a tie for ninth place at 15-17 despite underlying stats that paint a more positive picture.
The Pacers are at a bit of a danger point, actually, with an upcoming 10-game stretch as tough as any team will face all season: Two each against the Nuggets and Heat, plus the Lakers, Nets, Bucks, Suns and Sixers. Eight of them are on the road. Yikes.
That may set them several games below .500 temporarily, but it would still be an upset if they don’t land in the top eight by the time this is over. The Pacers can expect a major offensive boost when T.J. Warren and Caris LeVert return and can likely get a better version of Malcolm Brogdon when he’s not cracking under the strain of being their only threatening perimeter creator. Jeremy Lamb’s re-acclimation as he returns from a torn ACL should also help on this front.
For now, the bigger mystery is why they aren’t better defensively. With an awesome shot-blocker having his best season (Myles Turner), a crazy ball-pressure pest with a league-leading steal rate (T.J. McConnell) and several competent-to-good wings (most notably Justin Holiday), they should be better than 13th in defensive efficiency. Adding Warren and LeVert likely won’t help much at that end either.
Atlanta: The Hawks were supposed to be moving up in the world this season, and the fact they haven’t is generating some pointed questions. Atlanta has lost 11 of its last 16 games, turning up the Heat on coach Lloyd Pierce’s seat, and as our Chris Kirschner noted, the Hawks have lost 11 games this season where they led in the fourth quarter.
Surely, injuries haven’t helped. Bogdan Bogdanovic has only played nine games, while De’Andre Hunter’s breakout season was curtailed by a knee issue after 18. Kris Dunn, signed to add a defensive stopper, hasn’t played at all.
The Hawks’ recent skid corresponds exactly to when Hunter went out, leaving them scraping the barrel for rotation-caliber wing play in his absence. Getting Bogdanovic back should help, especially if he can play backup point guard too. Free-agent additions Danilo Gallinari and Rajon Rondo have bombed, save for one glorious night from Gallinari, while lottery pick Onyeka Okongwu has hardly played.
Atlanta still has enough talent to get into the play-in tournament at the very least. It just hasn’t seemed like a team that’s primed for a charge to get there.
Washington: Left for dead at the bottom of the East, the Wizards have staged a fairly dramatic Lazarus act of late, and despite Sunday’s last-second failure in Boston, they have won seven of their past nine. Fortuitously, Washington’s next seven games are at home, giving the Wizards a decent shot at climbing back into the mix. Less fortuitously, they play Utah, Philadelphia, the Clippers and Milwaukee (twice!) in that stretch.
The Wizards still face the most uphill climb of any team here. They’ve been outscored by 4.2 points per game to date, which is a nice way of saying they have to play a whole lot better to win even half their remaining games, and if Bradley Beal has to miss any time, God bless. As long as Beal and Russell Westbrook can stay upright, however, give these Wizards a puncher’s chance.
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Damn Horford's now the last man standing from those Gator repeat squads, time flies man...
lawdog1
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Wes Johnson was at home on a Sunday afternoon minding his own business, probably hanging out with his kids and ABC decided to relieve probably the most embarrassing moment of his career on a national TV broadcast. Icy cold.
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Was thinking about this the other day.
No one from pre-2003 drafts is active in the NBA.
2003 - LeBron, Melo, Haslem
2004 - Howard, Iguodala, Ariza
2005 - CP3
I feel old.
aepps20
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I missed you very much.
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Melo plays the longest out of this listWas thinking about this the other day.
No one from pre-2003 drafts is active in the NBA.
2003 - LeBron, Melo, Haslem
2004 - Howard, Iguodala, Ariza
2005 - CP3
I feel old.
lawdog1
Supporter
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Was thinking about this the other day.
No one from pre-2003 drafts is active in the NBA.
2003 - LeBron, Melo, Haslem
2004 - Howard, Iguodala, Ariza
2005 - CP3
I feel old.
It gets easier.
antidope
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You don't believe that.
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You are oldWas thinking about this the other day.
No one from pre-2003 drafts is active in the NBA.
2003 - LeBron, Melo, Haslem
2004 - Howard, Iguodala, Ariza
2005 - CP3
I feel old.
storm2006
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Haslem has been playing single minutes per game since 2015-2016. He’s just on this list for completeness.
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Melo has found his footing as a reserve. Lot less wear and tear
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This ***** harden licked his lips at Wes Johnson 
Wes was terrible
Wes was terrible
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storm2006
Supporter
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I think there’s a rule in the basketball universe that the shot has an increased chance of going in and more than likely will. The Basketball Lords don’t want to ruin a great highlight.
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Bron broke Gobert and missed the shot lol doesn’t always work lol
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I think I have seen more misses than makes to be honest.
Sonny Corinthos
formerly joeclear
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Best series going right now
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