OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[johnnyredstorm]

Why is everyone saying the market is going to crash in 2021

Because treasury yields are returning to pre Covid levels, temporary inflation as a result of the economy reopening, and the S&P having a higher P/E ratio that usually leads to a top.

it’s all bull**** because yields can go to 3% and it won’t negatively affect anyone in reality. The inflation fears are bs since were in a deflationary environment thanks to innovation and tech, reflation will go away after The world is temporary,to the s&p can grow into its ratio with strong earnings, and the fed is incredibly accommodative and not tightening. It’s all stupid noise. If you’re u comfortable, take some money off, but overall I’m using the volatility to buy more when I can.

 

[gvhp2223]

Because treasury yields are returning to pre Covid levels, temporary inflation as a result of the economy reopening, and the S&P having a higher P/E ratio that usually leads to a top.

it’s all bull**** because yields can go to 3% and it won’t negatively affect anyone in reality. The inflation fears are bs since were in a deflationary environment thanks to innovation and tech, reflation will go away after The world is temporary,to the s&p can grow into its ratio with strong earnings, and the fed is incredibly accommodative and not tightening. It’s all stupid noise. If you’re u comfortable, take some money off, but overall I’m using the volatility to buy more when I can.

all bull****?

Treasury yields rising is a precursor to nominal interest rates rising. Higher interest rates affect a company's earnings which affects their valuation, which affects the price of their shares.

If Treasury yields rising doesn't have any affect then why have growth/tech stocks been struggling the past few weeks?

 

[CrownRoyalDaddy]

all bull****?

Treasury yields rising is a precursor to nominal interest rates rising. Higher interest rates affect a company's earnings which affects their valuation, which affects the price of their shares.

If Treasury yields rising doesn't have any affect then why have growth/tech stocks been struggling the past few weeks?

I think he is saying the overall market reaction and especially with the tech/growth stocks is BS and just people being scared

 

[JL415]

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I think he is saying the overall market reaction and especially with the tech/growth stocks is BS and just people being scared

Right. Yields returning to 1.75% or 3% isn’t catastrophic, it’s indicative of a healthy economy returning to normal. **** was .50 a year ago. That’s scarier than seeing it rebound. Reality is tech sold off because of the excuse to sell it off. **** was overbought as hell.

also what’s happening isn’t bearish or problematic. It’s a healthy rotation that is leading to the broadening of the bull market which will preserve its potential. Tech will rebound after basing/chopping for a quarter or two.

 

[truss]

they're blatantly inflating the u.s. dollar and so that is 50% of the reason her target is high. once investors refuse to buy treasury bonds unless those bonds are paying 2.5%+, the Fed will just buy more bonds to lower that 2.5% demand which will result in printing more money. This will continue until the dollar is overthrown.

what are contributing factors of events that'd overthrow the dollar?

What's the likelihood that something like that would happen on a 60 year scope?

 

[ballinsam23]

Overthrow the dollar

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Just because of high debt and printing of money to devalue that debt doesn’t mean the dollar is in danger and inflation will be rampant. The dollar number one is pegged to the strongest army in the world that will do everything to maintain its reserve status and two the country is in a deflationary environment thanks to tech and innovation which puts those inflation fears in check and keeps things from getting out of hand.

 

[heyson]

I’m hardly knowledgable at all on these topics, but I got an email that was talking about Bill HR 2290 or the “NEED” act and from what I’ve briefly read it seems as if it’s goal is to replace the federal reserve notes with the “United States Currency”, all for a push to erase outstanding debts. This sentiment seems strong within much of the democrats agenda, and seems to me that this would essentially overthrow the dollar. Can the more knowledgable cats in here please chime in on this please?

 

[gvhp2223]

what are contributing factors of events that'd overthrow the dollar?

What's the likelihood that something like that would happen on a 60 year scope?

The contributing factors are already in place; abusing the fact that your currency is the world's reserve currency by printing crazy amounts of money and buying your own bonds if you need to. At some point, another powerful country will call out your bull**** and this results in a war. The power of the u.s. military is what is stopping other countries from saying f*** the u.s. dollar. Read the article below.

Overthrow the dollar

Try to understand this:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4414285-why-in-the-world-would-you-own-bonds

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Why would a country call you out when they are all operating from the same playbook right now? What benefit would China have to do this or let it happen when they own $1T of our debt?

 

[gvhp2223]

Because if their currency can become the reserve currency then they will have access to unlimited money and that 1T debt will be meaningless.

 

[ICE CITY CF]

So this particular concern ultimately comes to to a very simple outlook question, does one believe that China can or will be able to overtake the US military? Can the Chinese ¥ realistically overtake the USD as the world's primary reserve currency in our lifetime? I don't see it.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Because if their currency can become the reserve currency then they will have access to unlimited money and that 1T debt will be meaningless.

They already have unlimited money and do whatever they want with their currency. The dollar being overthrown is a fun conspiracy that’s rooted in 0 reality.

 

[thekillerj23]

Hoping for a Green week! Lets get it

 

[heyson]

Isn’t there a significant threat to the dollar from agents inside the US aside from foreign powers?

 

[johnnyredstorm]

I mean instead of worrying about the dollar being overthrown or anything like that, if you want to discuss the real inflationary issues ahead, your focus should be on reflation combined with supply shortages. The combination of both of those issues can drive up the prices of items ranging from gas and travel to cars, lumber, home renovations, etc. I'd be more worried about that short term than the obsession over the dollar collapsing.

 

[mplsdunk]

Price of lumber is through the roof now. Soon we’ll all have concrete houses.

 

[frankmatthews]

If the dollar collapses you're gonna have more to worry about than your stock portfolio. Its been right around the corner for the past 20 years.

 

[anderson]

FB been nasty as of late.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Price of lumber is through the roof now. Soon we’ll all have concrete houses.

if it continues it'll get passed onto home builders charging more for buyers while raising prices on top of rising rates. That's more worrisome to me than the hyperinflation boogeyman.

FB is going to change the world if they execute AR/VR correctly. I criticized them for making a watch but after seeing the demo for the CTRL Labs wrist AR sensor, it all makes sense. Could see a huge second wind if they execute. Fully expect Apple to integrate that tech into their watch as well.

 

[iheartboost]

I haven't bought anything in the last week, port looking pretty good as is. I feel like anything new is just gonna **** **** up

 

[jmansmc23]

Week after March Quad Witching is usually down so i bought some cheap .40 hedges that i truly hope expire to zero.

 

[noskey]

Enough of this technical and currency talk. GME earnings tomorrow afternoon. johnnyredstorm you buying today?

 

[iheartboost]

Enough of this technical and currency talk. GME earnings tomorrow afternoon. johnnyredstorm you buying today?