OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

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Joined Nov 8, 2013
Helped that I had a lot of realized gains to tax loss harvesting against. Nvta is probably a multibagger but I still don’t understand what they do so I’m going to focus on what I know.
NVTA is gonna be a long term play for me. The use case is growing and societal benefit is there, whether or not the stock price will reflect that is always a question mark. Anecdotally, we use their gene test panels for BRCA testing and they are a huge part of prophylactic cancer screening. We’re still in early innings from my view for genetic testing as more doctors and hospital systems/insurance systems adopt genetic testing for personalized medicine, pregnancy, and cancer surveillance programs.

Or just get in ARKG and ride the genomic wave without the individual concentration.
 
22,687
11,533
Joined Dec 23, 2009
I tried looking up a way to contact robinhood yesterday to find out why they havent sent my cost basis info to TD in the past month, but, theres no way to contact them. At least from the dozens of pages I tried to look up. None. **** Robinhood. **** Vlad. **** citadel.
 
13,756
5,029
Joined May 14, 2002
I tried looking up a way to contact robinhood yesterday to find out why they havent sent my cost basis info to TD in the past month, but, theres no way to contact them. At least from the dozens of pages I tried to look up. None. **** Robinhood. **** Vlad. **** citadel.
I still really like the RH app, it’s so user friendly. But I’ve migrated to Fidelity out of principle.
 
13,756
5,029
Joined May 14, 2002
Whole market is rigged. Pump and dumps are even more obvious now.
I never paid attention to it until this year, really is starting to feel like the entire stock market was created just as a way to keep the wealth in the pockets of the wealthy. With that being said, I still think there’s opportunity for the average joe to make some money in it, but it’s def rigged for the rich.
 
26,055
15,569
Joined Jul 13, 2005
It’s probably why going into a total stock market index fund is really the best option to be rich 10 years down the line.

I just don’t get how a stock can plummet after it kills earrnings. Clearly it’s a good business model that’s making profit. So why is there sell offs before earnings?Clearly insider trading. Then the company does really well during earnings, and there’s even more selling after that? Yea thats why this **** makes no sense to me.
 
22,687
11,533
Joined Dec 23, 2009
It’s probably why going into a total stock market index fund is really the best option to be rich 10 years down the line.

I just don’t get how a stock can plummet after it kills earrnings. Clearly it’s a good business model that’s making profit. So why is there sell offs before earnings?Clearly insider trading. Then the company does really well during earnings, and there’s even more selling after that? Yea thats why this **** makes no sense to me.
Algorithms run millions of calculations within the seconds an ER is released, using machine learning to spot certain phrases, numbers, ratios, etc. Hence you can see a selloff. Sometimes situations happen like PTON this week where there's no guidance issued, so the algorithms cause the fund(s) to selloff thinking theres negative news or whatever. When the analyst call happened and the guidance was processed, we saw the spike. Seeing selloffs isn't usually due to insider trading, that would actually be flagged by the SEC, but by machines working faster than people can and running endless amounts of game theory to determine if it's worth holding, buying, or selling a position before ER. Some companies have seen such a wild run, these AIs will determine it's more probable the earnings are a disappointment or a selling catalyst, so they cut bait to get ahead of everyone else. If ER is good, well, "oh no theres already a selloff, better not buy the falling knife" **** *** machines.

At least that's the general conclusion I've come to over the years. Machines ****in up, people cleaning up.

If the company is solid and nothing's changed your conviction in the company, dont sell it. Obvs you shouldn't be so stubborn to ride the ship as it sinks, but that's where having a 1000 ft view comes in handy when assessing the market overall.
 
4,929
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Joined May 20, 2006
It’s probably why going into a total stock market index fund is really the best option to be rich 10 years down the line.

I just don’t get how a stock can plummet after it kills earrnings. Clearly it’s a good business model that’s making profit. So why is there sell offs before earnings?Clearly insider trading. Then the company does really well during earnings, and there’s even more selling after that? Yea thats why this **** makes no sense to me.

It's always been like this though, earnings have never been a reliable indicator of short term price movement. I feel like when people learn about how the stock market actually works and what makes stocks go up they fall under the impression that a strong company with good earnings potential will invariably go up. But the reality is there is so many other variables that go into price movement on a day to day, week to week or month to month basis than just buying on a valuation that an earnings report provides. Not to mention all this stuff is already WAY over valued by any conventional metric.

Think about it like this, these big institutions and banks have TEAMS of analysts working 50-60+ hours a week doing nothing but researching a company or industry and what their prospects are. They are reading these reports and listening to these calls and pulling out info that the average investor doesnt even know is a thing. This is who you're competing against when you try to play earnings or the valuation game.
 

antidope

Supporter
53,573
38,266
Joined Jan 2, 2012
I never paid attention to it until this year, really is starting to feel like the entire stock market was created just as a way to keep the wealth in the pockets of the wealthy. With that being said, I still think there’s opportunity for the average joe to make some money in it, but it’s def rigged for the rich.
The core of the capital markets is about disenfranchisement. And it's compounded by the government.
 
26,055
15,569
Joined Jul 13, 2005
I've definitely heard of these computers and algorithms looking for key words and price movement to trigger sell offs.

So if we're fighting bots either everyone should be rich just by buying every single dip for every small or mid cap stock or the lower/middle class will forever lose trying to actively trade individual stocks when there are random sell offs during a bear or stagnant market.
 

antidope

Supporter
53,573
38,266
Joined Jan 2, 2012
I've definitely heard of these computers and algorithms looking for key words and price movement to trigger sell offs.

So if we're fighting bots either everyone should be rich just by buying every single dip for every small or mid cap stock or the lower/middle class will forever lose trying to actively trade individual stocks when there are random sell offs during a bear or stagnant market.
To be honest... Yes. Not only for us, but professional active management the same applies.

We're just so suited to be susceptible to behavioral biases, primarily confidence that we all think we can consistently best the market. Not only that I know for me personally I know I am not doing the truly necessary amount of analysis to have a reasonable basis for the names I buy myself. I'm not buying stuff at random, but compared to what really happens on an equity research desk I might as well be.
.to that end it's why my 401k is all indexed. It's my largest pool of assets currently and it will be 100% entrusted to the science. My PA has done way better for now but I know at some point it will revert.

 
26,055
15,569
Joined Jul 13, 2005
For sure. I know the big boys or even people who went to school for this don't beat the market on a consistent basis. Even your random day trader might have a lucky year, but on a larger sample size (5-10 years) nah.

There's only so much research you can do, a whole lot of luck and lack of emotion has to be involved.
 
72,413
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Joined Apr 4, 2008
:nerd: Can you share the goods? My first reaction is to be concerned that I’m missing something... I have a lot of respect for Ophir and his research.
Pm me.

instead of complaining about algos and institutions operating the way they do, as retail were able to use that to create alpha rn let time compound for us.

stocks sell off after earnings because usually they run into the event. Sell the news. Plus they’re forward looking, if they don’t like what they hear, it usually prices in that volatility.

the game isn’t rigged, it just has its rules that psychologically and emotionally are predatory. Your job should be to navigate them and take advantage of the beta to generate life changing returns. Focus on great companies with great fundamentals and take advantage of them being short term underloved.

do you see me *****ing and complaining about Fastly and saying it’s rigged? No, I know what I own, what the timeline is for their business to succeed and I understand the sell off after seeing the stock go from 12-126 last year. And if Fastly hits things the way I think they can, it’s going to make me a ton of money because I was there buying in the trenches and letting time compound for me.

pressure is a privilege and if you can’t stomach the ride, grab an index fund and chill. Watching your account go from up 50% to down 1% and back up again isn’t for everyone.
 
22,687
11,533
Joined Dec 23, 2009
stocks sell off after earnings because usually they run into the event. Sell the news. Plus they’re forward looking, if they don’t like what they hear, it usually prices in that volatility.

.... Focus on great companies with great fundamentals and take advantage of them being short term underloved.
This quoted part is a major, if not the most important, focus for long term investing. Algos are built by people who need to perform in 12 month cycles. We should all be operating on 12 year cycles, or 21 year, or on 40 year horizons. Short term wins are great, and we should take advantage of them (trimming positions for profits, reentering on dips), but we're not needing to show immediate and consistent wins like MMs or funds or the pros. We can take dips, the short term pain, if the companies we invest in are stable and solid. ETSY smashed earnings but said repeat customer volume probably wont equal last year's? SELLOFF. I'll be buying more. ETSY is here to stay and they're undervalued imo at this point. Cant wait to buy and ride.

I dont like machines running the momentum, but it's not always bad. Like JRS said, use their flaws to your advantage.
 
72,413
20,782
Joined Apr 4, 2008
sold my add in snow flat, sold my add in pins flat and sold some pd to lower my allocation. took that money and aped into some ETH to give myself some exposure to track and dca into.
 
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