OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

JNUG mooned, JC

I've had an abundance of free time lately at work, I think im going to dive back in.
 
Added more shorts at close today.

Seems to have been a rally based on buybacks and short term sentiment swing but nothing of substance. Trade tensions have not gotten any better. Headline risk is very high. Stay cautious.
 
Yup, rising unemployment will be the final trigger, still not there yet but we already have had negative revisions to the jobs number for the past 3 months in a row, which is a bad sign.

http://www.mediafire.com/file/5py1d1zrii5rr1a/The_Recession_Playbook.pdf/file

This is by Morgan Stanley, some interesting charts to look at. I'm getting more and more bearish about this market, I don't think rate cuts and QE will do anything to stop the decline.
 
Yup, rising unemployment will be the final trigger, still not there yet but we already have had negative revisions to the jobs number for the past 3 months in a row, which is a bad sign.

http://www.mediafire.com/file/5py1d1zrii5rr1a/The_Recession_Playbook.pdf/file

This is by Morgan Stanley, some interesting charts to look at. I'm getting more and more bearish about this market, I don't think rate cuts and QE will do anything to stop the decline.

Mike Wilson da Goat
 
Rate cuts and QE worked for 10 years. Their power surely has to be waning. What’s trump gonna do with the trade war? Bail out farmers again?
 
I’d prefer not to open a new position in favor of adding to current positions, but the insider buying at ABBV is temping to piggy-back on. Could be a quick 25% return in a few months.
 
10/2 yield spread dropping like a stone, dangerously close to inverting now, seems imminent.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=10Y2YS

fredgraph.png
 
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Looks like within the next 18 months for sure but who knows exactly when, conveniently just in time for the Dems to take back the House next Nov and eat all the blame probably. I will say tho, the yield curve is a little different now than before cause before the Fed didn't have a giant balance sheet of long dated US bonds which drove down their yields but def seems bearish at best.
 
Booming today w/ the tariff delay announcement, imagine the $ being made by the Trump's insiders who have the heads up in advance. Must be nice.
 
this see-saw game is stupid. tarif! delay! germany! working on deal! trump mad so tariff effective immediately!

how do you short the market?
 


Trump begging FED for emergency rate cut. He knows that as the market goes down so do his chances of re-election. He miscalculated very badly, announced China tariffs without realizing how weak the global economy was then had to swiftly back track not even 2 weeks later once stocks fell, exposing how weak his position is to China and Xi.
 
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