So, an article I wrote is on the Huffington Post

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Joined Mar 30, 2008
http://www.huffingtonpost...-ncaa-tour_b_500421.html

I play poker professionally, but I also spend about 20 hours a week crunching data for Dr. Bob, who is a famous sports bettor. I was bored last night and write up this article for him, and he ended up submitting it to the Huffington Post and they put it on their site.

The article's super simple, and I had to shorten it from like 2600 words to 1100 in order to get it posted, but I'm still pretty happy with it.

Anyway, no purpose to this post other than a shameless brag. Most of you all don't know me, but I used to be like a huge, regular poster here from like 2001 to 2004 (yes NT existed back them), but then I moved to 2+2 when I got serious about poker, and just kind of stayed there.

That's all.
 
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Yeah, I'm still betting CFB. Now currently, obv. Absolutely CRUSHING basketball though, like it's not even funny. Just hit 2,000 bets placed this 09-10 season so far between FB and BB.

Damn, FR3SH, I'm mad I wasn't really here anymore when we wooped on y'all at home.
 

black jesus

Banned
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Joined Oct 6, 2009
honestly don't believe the OP was hittin more college football games then myself....had that %*%+ in a choke hold
 
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Congrats on the article!  But Kansas is going to win despite the pick being overly popular
 

I do respect the logic though
 
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Originally Posted by raw120

thanks galen. what games do you like on thursday?



Our bets for the first round won't come out until tomorrow.

Originally Posted by KT Money

Congrats on the article!  But Kansas is going to win despite the pick being overly popular
 

I do respect the logic though



They're the most likely team to win. But I don't look at sports as binary outcomes of what will or will not happen. There's a distribution of probabilities, just like everything in life. Of course, if youare sure Kansas is going to win, I'd be happy to book even money that they don't


Originally Posted by Black Jesus

honestly don't believe the OP was hittin more college football games then myself....had that %*%+ in a choke hold



I placed over a thousand bets during college football season
 

black jesus

Banned
1,798
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Joined Oct 6, 2009
well i would never make that many plays....its all about a profit not how many plays i can make
.....cause $1000 straight up on a game >>>>> $200 bets on 5 different games and only going 3-2


what was your percentage during college football games?

don't give me that tout bs either
 
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Joined Nov 2, 2000
Interesting article, Galen. But I'm not sure I agree that picking a darkhorse national champion is the best way to win a pool. A non 1-seed has only won the whole thing 5 times in the last 20 years. I prefer to pick a champion that has a reasonably likely chance to win it all, then outpick the competition in the rest of the bracket. The best way to do that is to identify potential cinderallas but don't pick upsets. Instead, use your potential cinderallas and upsets to determine which high seeds are vulnerable to being knocked out early, consequently don't pick these high seeds to advance deep in the tournament. Losing one of your Final Four picks in the Sweet 16 (or one of your Elite 8 picks in 2nd Rd) is hard to recover from. In an average sized office pool (25-80 entries), you basically need to pick the correct champion to win the pool (unless an unpicked darkhorse wins the whole thing), so that's the one pick you absolutely need to get right. If you pick a team that has a 3.7% of winning the whole thing, sure you're very likely to convincingly win your pool when that pick hits... once every 27 years. But the problem is you will have basically no shot of finishing near the top during any of the other 26 years. In my opinion, NCAA bracket picking is about how can I win this year, not how to ensure I will win once in the next 30 years.
 

black jesus

Banned
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Joined Oct 6, 2009
theres isnt a set way on winning a bracket
...it takes some knowledge and straight up luck when you include some unexpected upsets and stuff...
 
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Joined Mar 30, 2008
So, summary of my article:

1. Don't pick Kansas
2. Don't pick Villanova

3. Pick Minnesota, Murray State, ODU, Cal and Washington as first round upsets. Don't pick Siena.



So, you're welcome.
 
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Joined Nov 10, 2007
nice article man, I remember you back in the day when I first started playing poker and you told me about some site where I referred you for a bonus offer (can't remember the site but it had a terrible layout and I think your buddy ran it or something like that? 
) Anyways thats cool your still playing poker, what site you play on now?
 
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