The ORLANDO MAGIC Support Group Thread: Very Bright Future Post D12

[CP1708]

The Magic still have another year of cleaning up the mess that was there during the Dwight Howard era. They still owe Arenas over 22 mil, but have recently begun constructing a new Death Star, and one maybe even more powerful than the 09 Finals team.

With the selection of SG Victor Oladipo last night, they now have formed a core of

Nikola Vucevic 22 C
Andrew Nicholson 23 PF
Tobias Harris 20 SF
Victor Oladipo 21 SG
Maurice Harkless 20 SF

All 6-5 and over, the only piece missing is a shiny new PG to run the core. (Rondo available? )


They have some dead weight in Hedo for one more year, Jameer Nelson for one more year (then a team option that they best decline), Baby Davis and Al Harrington for 2 more years, and then they have a possible trade chip in Aaron Affalo who I really like, but he has no real need or fit with this upcoming core.

In a perfect world, the Celtics are real serious about tanking, and flip Rondo for Affalo and any other pieces it takes + a pick or two and make the draft just a complete Celtic party for a couple years and let the Magic start really growing with a still prime Rondo to lead these kids. I know it won't happen, but I can dream.

IF the Magic slow up some of the development of these kids and don't get a Rondo deal, they play like crap again this year, get somewhere in the range of top 4-7 pick, and take a PG and hit the ground running in 2014-15 without the dead weight, a tremendous stash of young talent, and money to try and bring some free agents into the state of Florida.


Discuss


*Note, a special thank you to Kev for this idea, these therapy groups are good for the soul.

 

[kevin cleveland]

You're missing the color coding, though. That's crucial.

 

[freddie black]

I like the Magic if for no other reason than the fact that they have a few local kids on the roster.  Doesn't hurt that they are a fairly talented group either.

 

[CP1708]

I was in a rush man, was at work and we all on vaca next week, they cut us loose early, I didn't get time to go in detail.

I'll clean it up at some point.

 

[pmatic]

Turkoglu and Harrington have non-guaranteed contracts, so they're gone this summer. So that leaves Nelson and Big Baby as the overpaid vets.

 

[CP1708]

Nice!!!!

I vaguely remember hearin that about Al, but not Hedo. I thought Hedo had a player option for this year????

Still, that's awesome.

Draft got decent PG's next year?

 

[big j 33]

They're not going to have to slow up anything... you're off with the 4-7 range when you want the 1-3 range. Barring trade, this team will and should be terrible and in the hunt for Wiggins/Parker/Randle.

If you want to go PG, you have Smart and Harrison.

A couple of those guys (Harkless and Nicholson) are fine young guys, but you enthusiastically kick them to the bench if you land one of the top kids.

I'm excited for next year's draft. Oladipo, Harris, and Vucevic developing, and seeing what you want to do with Afflalo. Then next year get Wiggins or Randle or one of the PGs, and lure a free agent, and the real fun begins.

 

[frshstunna]

The Raptors trying to pick up bledsoe now

 

[big j 33]

Sneaky tanking: Position switch

Victor Oladipo, the point guard.

The Magic have been talking about trying that, starting in summer league.

He was the best shooting guard in college last season. The things he's amazing at are, by and large, shooting guard things. Why would you bring him to the NBA -- only to switch his position? Why mess with success in that way? Isn't that crazy?

Allow me to deepen the mystery even further: The Magic are run by Rob Hennigan, who until a year ago worked for the Thunder, an organization that both wrote the rebuild-through-the-draft playbook, and did this exact thing repeatedly.

Do you remember when no one could figure out why then-Sonics coach P.J. Carlesimo wasted all kinds of time experimenting with 6-9 rookie Kevin Durant -- now the world's finest forward not named LeBron James -- out of position at shooting guard? Durant was never great at it. It was a head-scratcher in real time, and it doesn't make a ton more sense now.

But wait! There's more! Russell Westbrook had never played point guard before the Thunder drafted him. It's the most demanding skill position in the most demanding league in the world, and Westbrook was hardly an instant success. After one summer league game, DraftExpress's Jonathan Givony wrote Westbrook looked "like he was thinking very hard about how to get his team into the offense." He was an instant maestro of the turnover, leading the entire league in two of his first three years. A full 17 games of his rookie year featured five or more turnovers, including one nine-turnover game. Even now, years later, the things Westbrook's best at, it's easy to argue, are mostly shooting guard things -- and he has never finished outside the league's top five in turnovers per season.

So, what's with very strategic teams drafting elite wing players and assigning them, with middling success, to move over one position?

Why do people from the Thunder tree seem to think that's awesome? And is it a trend?

I can see two benefits:
If it works, great. Being big at your position is awesome, if you can keep up with the opposition. You probably don't want a shooting guard like Ray Allen checking point guards, because they will blow by him. Westbrook, Durant and Oladipo on the other hand, all have the physical potential (read: quickness) to potentially hang with smaller guys. And if they can learn the position, it's awesome to be bigger than a lot of opponents. Westbrook is the proof. He's not just insanely fast, but also way too big and strong for most point guards. That edge wouldn't exist to such a degree if he were being guarded by shooting guards. Part of the strategy if that it just might work.
If it doesn't work, it's sneaky tanking. People are quick to praise the Thunder approach, but slow to acknowledge the lynch pin of reaching elite status was not merely getting Durant. It was getting Durant ... and then staying absolutely terrible for two more full seasons while adding Westbrook, James Harden and Serge Ibaka. While Durant was messing around at shooting guard the then-SuperSonics won a cruddy 20 games despite having once-in-a-generation talent on the roster. That was such a bad performance they got an incredibly high draft pick with which they could select Westbrook. Then Westbrook sprayed the ball around the court as if it were buttered, and that's how a roster with two blossoming All-Stars only managed 23 wins, leading to the draft where they added James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Only after that did the team take off, winning 50.

Now that teams have seen how it's done -- don't tank for a star, tank for four -- there's value in getting a great young player and keeping him from being too great right away. Having him play out of position is one of the ways to get that done.

I don't begrudge any team doing what it takes to win in the long-term. This is not a gotcha of the Magic, the Thunder, or anybody else. Instead this is another wake-up call, pointing the league to the absurd things that happen in a league with perverse incentives; where the biggest prizes go to the teams with the most losses.

As a fan, I don't mind watching a player attempt to learn a new position, nor anything about long-term planning. But I'd prefer a league where every season began with every employee of every team doing everything they could to win as much as possible while getting those long-term things done. Instead we start every season with several teams -- especially heading into a great draft like 2014's -- doing far less than they could to win now. Lots of rebuilding teams will keep their cap space unused all year, and in some cases, star rookies who might contribute mightily immediately will be used in position experiments where their bosses are happy to see them succeed, or not.

 

[CP1708]

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Vic, Mo and Tobias, I'm so in here!

 

[CP1708]

Vic, Mo and Tobias, I'm so in here!

This going to be the first thing we ever agreed on?

Or was there somethin we agreed on back in 2007? I can't remember.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i gotta start watching these summer league games. hope my dude harkless takes his game to the next level this year and tobias and vucevic continue developing. magic have a nice little young core.

 

[worldbeefreeg]

This going to be the first thing we ever agreed on?

Or was there somethin we agreed on back in 2007? I can't remember.

Here and there I guess

 

[CP1708]

 

[CP1708]

 

[denni5themenace]

how many picks do they have in the 2014 draft?

 

[CP1708]

how many picks do they have in the 2014 draft?

2014 first round draft pick from Denver
Denver will convey the less favorable of its 2014 1st round pick and New York's 2014 1st round pick to Orlando

Looks like 2, their own, and I would guess Denver's. I don't think Denver will finish ahead of New York.

 

[CP1708]

Andrew Nicholson with 11 and 3 boards on 5 of 6.

Vucevic 2 pts, 1 reb, 1 ast, 2 stls, 1 blk in the first quarter. Kids gonna be Kevin Love lite with his stat lines.

 

[CP1708]

Make that 15, on 7 of 8 shooting now...... another young piece?

Make that 18 on 8 of 9

 

[JD617]

Mother of God. Nicholson can't miss. 

Magic need to keep his minutes down for tanking purposes.

 

[big j 33]

I already counted Nicholson among their young, talented guys with potential. I was high on him last year.

 

[rolltribe41]

Well that got out of hand quickly.. why sit your hot hand in the 3rd??

 

[CP1708]

Well that got out of hand quickly.. why sit your hot hand in the 3rd??

Tank.

Play well, get the bench.

 

[kevin cleveland]

Keeping Nelson and Afflalo around is a clear sign of impending tanking.