Which NBA players are likely to get to 30K points?

[mike23theking]

Before you blurt out the "obvious" answers, take into consideration:

• Health
• Joining another team
• Another scorer joining "your" team
• Retirement
• any other factors...

List of players with a shot:

• Melo ( age 34 ) 25,302
• Durant ( 29 ) 20,715
• Westbrook ( 29 ) 16,957
• Harden ( 28 ) 15,581
• Curry ( 30 ) 14,405

I don't think Melo gets there being on the Thunder. He's dropped WAY below his career average.
KD's current PPG just a bit lower than his career average, but can he stay healthy? KD hasn't played a full season since 13-14.
I'm a little surprised that Curry so low on that list, but he didn't average more than 25ppg until his 7th year in the league. But same question here, can Curry stay healthy?


Assuming all the players listed retire at 36 (also based on their stats last 5 years):

• Harden - 30,381
• KD - 30,315
• Westbrook - 28,357
• Melo - 27,902
• Curry - 26321

Thoughts?

 

[atlsfinest]

Not surprised about Curry at all. He went to college for three years and only played in 26 games in the 11-12 season. He never really plays heavy minutes either.

The only one with a shot is Durant IMO. For you to get to 30k points, it needs to be a perfect storm of:

1. Health
2. 1-and-done player
3. Game that ages well and variety of offensive skills

 

[fac3 tak30v312]

Durant.
Harden.
Devin Booker. If he never gets hurt
Anthony Davis at a 70 games per season clip
[Not including playoffs for any of the players listed]
[Anthony Davis would actually benefit the most from maybe three seasons of deep playoff runs
and sitting at home watching everyone else the other seasons]

To get to 30k you're looking at 15 seasons avg. between 24-30pts a game playing an avg of 70 games per season.
70 games per season gives you 180 games you can miss over a 15 season span, which is two seasons of injury time.
Say you come in the at 19. You can average 24.5 pts over the next 15 years without missing any games puts you at 30k pts
That puts you on the Lebron James Career projection path (as far as scoring goes). Which is something Devin Booker can do
On the other hand the Kobe Bryant Career path is about 70 games per season with a career peak over 30ppg lets say twice for your career with an overall average of 25 pts over 15 years.
That would be the lower bounds of the 30k argument. James Harden and Anthony Davis if he doesn't have a major injury can actually achieve 30k following the Kobe Bryant model.
I think Harden would need two more 30PPG seasons to aide with the natural regression of his game. Anthony Davis simply has to keep his games per season at or around 70 with maybe two or three full seasons to aide with any natural regression later in his career

 

[Bert.]

Westbrook/Curry- NO

Durant and Harden yes if they can keep up high scoring into mid 30's

Melo, no way.

 

[CP1708]

Durant is the easy answer IMO, Harden I think has a chance, but a longer shot at it.

Russ will get to 30K shots before he gets to 30K points I'm guessing.

I def think AD can get there, if he stays healthy enough. He's just under 10K and just turned 25. In theory, he should be MORE productive from 25-30, he could get to 21-22K by that point, and just need 8-9K the final 5-6 years of his career, provided he gets to age 36, healthy, etc.

 

[dman14]

giannis