- 3,309
- 266
- Joined
- Jun 12, 2006
It hurts to read that whole "Non-Scott Kazmir" article when you're an Angels fan
Follow along with the video below to see how to install our site as a web app on your home screen.
Note: this_feature_currently_requires_accessing_site_using_safari
Brett Lawrie has put in a ton of hard work to transition to third base this spring.
Brett Lawrie's reputation preceded him to the Toronto Blue Jays, and the stories were not good. A prima donna, talent evaluators said. A pain in the rear, they said. Very difficult for the organization, they said. After the Milwaukee Brewers traded Lawrie -- the 16th overall pick in the 2008 draft -- for Shaun Marcum at the winter meetings, you could not go up an escalator without hearing another ugly tale about Lawrie.
Alex Anthopoulos, the general manager of the Blue Jays, has been in his job for about 18 months and already has a reputation among his peers for doing exhaustive research, and presumably he heard the same stories as he prepared to make the trade for the infielder. But the Jays' experience with Lawrie has been excellent, Anthopoulos said on Saturday, and Lawrie has been doing excellent work, since being shifted from second base to third base.
"He's been working his butt off," Anthopoulos said. "All of our coaches are blown away by how quickly he's making adjustments."
The Blue Jays broached the subject of a position change for Lawrie at the time they made the trade for him, given his offensive prowess (at age 20 last season, he hit .285 with eight homers, 16 triples and 30 stolen bases in Double-A) and given the fact it's always easier to find a second baseman than a good third baseman. "I don't care -- I'll play anywhere," Lawrie told Anthopoulos. "Put me wherever you want."
It was a good first sign that Lawrie, a native of British Columbia and a former catcher who turned 21 years old in January, was evolving through his baseball experience, and he has continued that evolution since coming to camp, while learning the new position. "Right now, he's doing everything defensively on his physical ability," Anthopoulos said. "He's got some adjustments to make, but we think that'll come with playing time ... Our scouts think he could be an above-average third baseman defensively, over time."
Lawrie has hit well, batting .360 with two homers, and he is a temptation for the Blue Jays; they could install him at third and leave Jose Bautista in the outfield for good. But Anthopoulos has walked through the various possibilities with Lawrie, including the chance that the Blue Jays could decide to send Lawrie to the minors, where he could learn more about playing third base, where he could refine his defensive skills, where he could have a chance to dominate offensively. "I told him we would be open-minded" about Lawrie making the team, Anthopoulos recalled. "He said, 'Hey, when I'm ready, I'm ready.'"
Lawrie has been sharing a place with two players from whom he can learn, catcher J.P. Arencibia and outfielder Travis Snider -- two players who, like Lawrie, are former top picks who have learned about making adjustments to life as a professional ballplayer.
And so far, Lawrie is apparently making major adjustments with the Blue Jays.
• The Jays have been running like crazy this spring, writes Mike Rutsey.
• Ricky Romero, Toronto's Opening Day starter, got knocked around.
[h3]Updates related to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan[/h3]
1. A couple of former Chicago Cubs who are playing in Japan are OK.
2. Hiroki Kuroda made contact with his brother, who is OK.
3. Kei Igawa was able to track down his family.
4. Takashi Saito is worried about his homeland.
[h3]Bad news for Santana[/h3]
Johan Santana's season is in jeopardy, write Steve Popper and Bob Klapisch; the team thinks it'll be lucky if Santana pitches this year.
My own sources indicate that the Mets have viewed Santana's rehabilitation as a long process, and that if he requires more time, then he won't be rushed back. The Mets have not counted on a lot from Santana this year, given the nature of his surgery.
[h3]More on the Mets[/h3]
Much gloom hovers over the New York Mets organization these days, of course, because of the Madoff situation, because of the uncertain status of Santana, because the team is not likely to contend and because this figures to be a transitional year, given the expected departures in the next eight months of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran (along with Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo).
There is no running from the simple fact that most of the headlines generated around the Mets this year will involve lawyers.
But the new Mets baseball operations regime, led by Sandy Alderson, is assessing the overall talent in the organization, and finding some pieces of hope.
1. There is some optimism that the team will be competitive this year -- if not necessarily playoff caliber -- because of what figures to be a good offense and defense. R.A. Dickey, who came out of nowhere to go 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA last season, is throwing well again this spring, with arguably the hardest knuckleball of any of those who have used it for a primary pitch in recent decades.
2. There is some talent to grow with coming through the minors, if the players continue to develop, from Ruben Tejada (who must prove he can hit to be more than a utility man) to Jordany Valdespin (who must clean up his defense and plate discipline) to second baseman Reese Havens, to their No. 1 pick in 2010, Matt Harvey. The new front office will have to generate a new wave of high-end pitching talent, behind Harvey.
[h3]Talent evaluator observations from around spring training[/h3]
1. Rave reviews continue to pour in about Gio Gonzalez of the Oakland Athletics, who made great improvement last season and seems on the cusp of climbing into the next tier of pitchers. Said one observer: "I think he's figured it out."
2. An evaluator on the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen reconstruction, which is a complete changing of the guard: "I think they have a chance to work it out. [Jake] McGee has closer's stuff; it's just a matter of him commanding his fastball. If he can do that, they'll be able to mix-and-match at the end of games."
3. On the progress and growth of David Price: "He is commanding his fastball inside to right-handed hitters very well. Very aggressive."
4. Brad Lidge, the Philadelphia Phillies' closer, is throwing at 86-87 mph, markedly less than his typical in-season velocity. But keep in mind that a lot of veteran relievers will show pedestrian velocity early in spring training before ramping up the velocity late in camp or at the outset of the season. "There's no reason to push it," Mariano Rivera said earlier this spring. Charlie Manuel says nobody should worry about Lidge.
5. About Desmond Jennings, the Rays' 24-year-old outfield prospect: "He doesn't seem to have a clue at the plate, any kind of real plan. He's got ability, but I'm not seeing a lot of refinement in the way he hits."
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Joe Mauer caught for the first time, in a side session.
2. Joel Zumaya has been shut down for a week, at least.
3. Injuries already have become a factor for the Colorado Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
4. Adrian Beltre is close to returning to games, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Ryan Braun suffered a strain, but says it's not serious.
6. Andrew McCutchen had just a minor wrist irritation; there is greater concern, however, about James McDonald.
7. Dontrelle Willis suffered a freak injury.
8. The Cincinnati Reds are shutting down Johnny Cueto for a couple of days.
9. Forgot to post this yesterday: Grady Sizemore has started doing more running, more cutting, with more of the type of action that he'll need to play in games. He could be a month or so away from being ready to play in the big leagues.
10. David Newhan is trying to come back after a serious surfing injury.
11. Within this notebook, there is word that Joey Devine feels like he's going through a normal spring training progression, despite being shut down after nine pitches during a simulated game.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Ruben Amaro got an extension.
2. The news conference announcing the departure of Chuck Greenberg was very awkward, writes Gil LeBreton. Jon Daniels is navigating through change.
3. Brad Mills is putting together the Astros' lineup, Zachary Levine writes.
4. Baseball has some ownership issues, writes Phil Rogers. Within this piece, there is also speculation that the Phillies might be willing to trade either Cole Hamels or Roy Oswalt to Texas as part of a Michael Young trade. It's hard to imagine that the Phillies would compromise the strength of their starting rotation, which is the backbone of the team right now. We'll see.
5. Marc Carig writes about the different ways that Joe Girardi could structure his lineup.
6. Mike Scioscia will start making cuts.
7. As expected, Bryce Harper was sent to Class A to resume his baseball education.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Baltimore Orioles pitcher Zach Britton had another great outing on Saturday.
2. Michael Morse, who is having a great spring, has become the front-runner to win the Washington Nationals' left-field job, writes Adam Kilgore.
3. Kyle McClellan hasn't won the No. 5 spot yet, says Tony La Russa.
4. Within this piece, there is word that Juan Miranda is the front-runner to be the Arizona Diamondbacks' first baseman.
5. The Cleveland Indians have some competition in their camp for pitching jobs, writes Paul Hoynes. Within that notebook, there is word that Fausto Carmona had another dominating spring performance.
6. Greg Dobbs is hoping he can resurrect his career with the Florida Marlins, Clark Spencer writes.
7. Rich Harden is out of the competition for a spot in the Oakland rotation, Susan Slusser writes.
8. Blake Hawksworth is looking to bite into the role of reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
9. Jason Isringhausen has gone from reckless rookie to sage, writes David Waldstein.
10. Jesus Flores has fallen behind Wilson Ramos in the battle for the No. 2 job in the Nationals' camp.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Carl Pavano has 13 scoreless innings this spring, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. A.J. Burnett has yet to issue a walk.
3. Alex Gordon had another big day for the Kansas City Royals, driving in six runs.
4. Russell Branyan continues to have a great spring for the D-backs, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Felix Hernandez impressed some wide-eyed kids, Larry Stone writes. Meanwhile, Justin Smoak had a good day.
6. Adrian Gonzalez is batting 1.000 after his first game. The one swing brings some relief, writes Ron Borges.
7. Tim Hudson is pleased with his progress, writes David O'Brien.
8. Stop if you've heard this before: Chipper Jones had a good day against the Mets.
9. John Lackey had a nice outing.
10. Josh Johnson has a 10.00 ERA so far this spring, Joe Capozzi writes. Johnson is working on a changeup.
11. Brad Penny had a good outing for the Detroit Tigers.
12. Clayton Richard doesn't want to talk about why his spring debut was delayed, writes Bill Center.
13. Juan Uribe didn't play against the San Francisco Giants, again.
14. Mark Teahen is hitting well. He'd be a nice fit for the Los Angeles Angels, if the two sides could work out a trade.
[h3]A new line of work for Cashman[/h3]
The other day, Brian Cashman answered his phone while waiting to be served at a coffee place, and he mused that whenever he finishes his work as a general manager, he might like to open a coffee place. He is often asked how it was that he worked for the demanding George Steinbrenner so many years, and coffee goes a long way toward explaining that, he joked.
"Cash's Coffee... For The Jolt You Need," he said, mentioning the title and marketing theme of the would-be establishment.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
My question is: do you see the Pirates being a .500 team any time soon? Oh, and I love it when you talk about cows. I live on a dairy farm also.
-- Corey Wilt (Everett, Pa.)
Corey: I'm a sucker for questions from a dairy farmer, but you're asking about baseball, and this means you won't care to get my perspective on Jersey cows or maple syrup production or manure-shoveling. Oh, well.
About the Pirates ... It's evident to folks in other organizations that, overall, the Pittsburgh franchise has markedly more high-end talent than it did when GM Neal Huntington took over. But the hole they were in was so deep that it'll take another two or three years of productive drafting and development before we could say they might be a factor in contending for the NL Central title.
Dayton Moore took over for Allard Baird as the Royals' GM in the summer of 2006 and, after five years of strong work within their reconstruction (which included spending increases in the draft), they are now a couple of years away from seeing a major wave of talent manifest in the big leagues. That gives you some kind of idea of how long rebuilding takes -- and this only has become more challenging because more and more teams are working from the same sophisticated playbook of assessing and collecting players based on skill metrics and value formulas.
Moore assumed control of the Royals in 2006 and has had the patient support of ownership. Huntington took over the Pirates in September of 2007, and time will tell if he gets the same kind of backing from his bosses.
Whether they like it or not, the Baltimore Orioles are stuck in the AL East, so general manager Andy MacPhail's job description is to accumulate enough talent to take down the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, not even mentioning the quality rosters in both Tampa Bay and Toronto. Several years into another rebuilding process, the Orioles have some players who were supposed to be franchise cornerstones, but as of yet they haven't quite lived up to the billing.
The best example is Matt Wieters. He wasn't just supposed to be a good catcher -- he was billed as a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with more power. To date, the only part of that description that has proven accurate is the fact that Wieters does indeed hit from both sides of the plate. His career .266 AVG/.328 OBP/.393 SLG line is simply not what was envisioned when he burst on the scene, and after two years of letdowns, questions are beginning to surface about just what the Orioles have in Wieters.
While he isn't likely to live up to the expectations that were thrust upon him -- no one should be expected to perform at that level, really -- history suggests that Wieters' slow start isn't abnormal. It's simply a truism in baseball that young catchers don't hit.
Over the past 50 years, 70 catchers have accumulated at least 600 plate appearances before the end of their age-24 seasons, giving us a decent sample of players who had at least one full season's worth of playing time in the big leagues by the time they were Wieters' age. As a group, their overall line was .259/.325/.390, nearly a dead ringer for Wieters' performance. Of course, the average is skewed up by the fact that the guys who hit well got more playing time than the guys who hit poorly, so his career .721 OPS actually ranks 23rd on that list, putting him in the top third of all the players in the sample.
While he hasn't made an immediate impact like Mike Piazza and Brian McCann did, there are far more examples of catchers who didn't really show much offense in the big leagues until after they turned 25. Mike Sweeney, Charles Johnson, Craig Biggio and Todd Hundley all hit worse than Wieters did in the majors through the same point of their careers, but still became quality offensive players despite their early struggles.
The similarity in all four breakouts was late developing power, as none of them showed much in the way of driving the ball before turning 25. This is also the skill that is most surprisingly absent from Wieters' performance; he was a prolific power hitter at Georgia Tech as well as during his climb up the minor league ladder, slugging .576 in two minor league seasons. At 6-foot-5 with the build of a first baseman, power should come naturally to Wieters. History suggests that we can't make too many judgments about his relative lack of thump so far, as few catchers develop into big home run threats at an early age.
Perhaps more interesting, however, are the group of good hitting catchers who aren't on the list we mentioned earlier -- they simply weren't good enough to get significant playing time in the big leagues before turning the big 25. Among those who fell outside the scope of our original sample are Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and Chris Hoiles. By WAR (wins above replacement), those are four of the top 12 catchers in the past 20 years, and at the same point in their careers as Wieters is now, they were still trying to convince their organizations that they were worth regular major league playing time.
In fact, if you look at the 10 best hitting catchers since 1990 by wRC+ (an index where 100 is average), the list is dominated by guys who didn't establish themselves as big league stars early in their careers.
[h4]Top Catchers: 1990-2010 (min 1000 PA)[/h4]
WRC+ measures how a player's offensive contribution measures against the league, with 100 representing league average.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank. Player[/th][th=""]WRC+[/th][/tr][tr][td]1. Mike Piazza[/td][td]140[/td][/tr][tr][td]2. Joe Mauer[/td][td]135[/td][/tr][tr][td]3. Jorge Posada[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]4. Darren Daulton[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]5. Mike Stanley[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]6. Mickey Tettleton[/td][td]123[/td][/tr][tr][td]7. Chris Hoiles[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]8. Brian McCann[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]9. Victor Martinez[/td][td]120[/td][/tr][tr][td]10. Mike Napoli[/td][td]118[/td][/tr][tr][td]-- Matt Wieters [/td][td]88[/td][/tr][/table]
Piazza, Mauer, and McCann were great at a young age, but the other seven guys were all late bloomers. In fact, until Mauer and McCann came along, Piazza essentially stood alone with Johnny Bench as examples of modern-day catchers who came into the league and were dominant offensive forces right out of the gate.
Wieters' career path is the historical norm, but unfortunately for the perception of his future, he came along right on the heels of a pair of anomalies. If he had debuted a decade earlier, we would think nothing of his early struggles, as it was just accepted that catchers take longer to figure out how to hit big league pitching. Mauer and McCann raised the bar, and perhaps unfairly so, as they set levels that few catchers in history have been able to live up to.
Patience is almost universally required with young backstops. The fans in Minnesota and Atlanta got a free pass on the learning curve, but what Baltimore is going through is completely normal. Given his pedigree and history of offensive performances, it is far too early to be throwing out your list of Matt Wieters Facts right now. Given another year or two, the hype may not seem so crazy after all.
BRADENTON, Fla. -- The greatest question about the Red Sox, as they enter the 2011 season generally regarded as the best on-paper team in the American League, is about their starting pitching. The last turn through has not been good for this group.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a rough spring, and Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters Sunday about another change Boston will make to Matsuzaka's regimen. In the past, he has had a long-toss session and a bullpen session on the same day, something he did as part of his schedule in Japan, which had an extra day built in. Francona, pitching coach Curt Young and Matsuzaka talked about splitting up the long-toss session and the bullpen session into different days, because there was concern that Matsuzaka couldn't handle as much out of the bullpen work as Boston wanted after throwing long-toss.
The mechanics required to discuss this kind of thing with Matsuzaka -- a translator is called and Matsuzaka is brought into the office and a laborious conversation follows -- is not something Francona likes, because he can't stand the way it feels like Matsuzaka is being reprimanded, when he's not. A change in Jon Lester's regimen would require a 30-second conversation in the outfield.
But the fact is that Matsuzaka, now entering his fifth year with Boston, remains a work in progress.
Curt Young is changing things up with him.
And on Sunday, Josh Beckett took the mound against the Pirates and he never looked fully comfortable, never looked at ease. After throwing his first pitch, Beckett took about 45 seconds to kick and rebuild the hole dug by Pirates right-hander Brad Lincoln, and afterward, he repeatedly asked for new balls, presumably to get a different feel for the seams. Even after he got good results among the first hitters, Beckett slapped at the side of his leg in frustration, clearly feeling that he didn't execute his last pitch as well as he wanted.
He allowed one run the first time through the lineup, but in the midst of his second pass through the batting order, Beckett's day disintegrated, as John Tomase writes. It's spring training and the linescore is washed away and literally meaningless, but Beckett is coming back from the worst season of his career, and everybody in the Red Sox world -- including Beckett -- would probably feel better if he was rolling up zeroes. He's got about three starts left to piece it together.
By the way: Alfredo Aceves, who signed with Boston after the Yankees passed on him because of past back trouble, will start tonight after being stretched out in his regimen by the Red Sox this spring. In Boston's perfect world, the Red Sox wouldn't need him to step into the rotation. But there are concerns about the Red Sox starters this spring.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Late last season, I spoke to someone who has come to know Carlos Zambrano through the years and asked if he thought Big Z's strong second half would carry over to 2011 or if Zambrano's temper would inevitably blow up again. "How the hell do I know?" he said, laughing.
So far, so good: Zambrano has thrown well this spring, and according to Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, Big Z is in better shape and he has his mind together and has his fastball back. Remember those outings last year when Zambrano was clocked at 88-90 mph? Well, so far this spring, he's throwing 92-94.
Look, if the Cubs are going to win, their starting rotation -- which could be pretty good -- will have to be their catapult, and right now, Zambrano and Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells and rotation candidate Andrew Cashner look good.
• One of the most difficult pitches to master, veteran pitchers will tell you, is what is generally known within clubhouses as the "Greg Maddux two-seamer." It's a sinker thrown by a right-handed pitcher near the front hip of the left-handed hitter, a pitch seemingly so far inside that the batter will give up on it -- only to see the ball veer, with late movement, over the inside corner for a strike.
Although Trevor Cahill has one of the best sinking fastballs in the majors, he did not pitch inside much to left-handed hitters much in 2009, before doing that more in 2010, and there are signs he is beginning to get a feel for that Greg Maddux two-seamer. He struck out a handful of hitters looking in his start Sunday, and some of those were with the sinker that ran back over the inside corner to left-handed hitters. It can be a vicious weapon for a pitcher who will mostly live on the opposite side of the plate -- away to left-handed hitters, inside to right-handers -- with his sinker.
• A lot of switch-hitters prefer to take their batting practice strictly in adherence with the side the BP pitcher throws from. In other words, if the pitcher is right-handed, the hitter will always bat left-handed, and the pitcher is left-handed, the hitter will bat right-handed, to keep a consistent look at the ball out of the pitcher's hand.
Jason Varitek, Boston's switch-hitting catcher, takes a different approach. As he took batting practice against a right-handed pitcher Sunday, he flip-flopped round to round, hitting left-handed and then switching over to the right of the plate. He explained afterward that he's always done this, because every ballpark is different, every backdrop is different, and he wants to get a feel from both sides of the plate. And when he takes his turn at batting practice, he can't control whether the pitcher will be right-handed or left-handed. "You take what you can get," he said.
• Observations from some talent evaluators:
1. Jered Weaver looks poised to follow up on his outstanding 2010 season, says one evaluator: "He's throwing the ball great … great command."
2. The greatest challenge that the Mets probably face, beyond the ownership issues, is combating the cloud that hangs over the franchise. "They've got to change that negativity," said one longtime evaluator. He's right. For a month, the stories coming out of the Mets camp have been, in no particular order: Madoff stuff; Oliver Perez's futility; Jose Reyes' likely future with a team other than the Mets; Carlos Beltran's knee problems; Johan Santana's slow rehab. It'll be a battle for them to get out from underneath all of this.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Wandy Rodriguez has some shoulder tendinitis. Not good.
2. Grady Sizemore ran bases and says he could be back in games soon.
3. The Dodgers' Casey Blake has a sore back.
4. Justin Duchscherer is hurting again.
5. David Freese took another good step, writes Rick Hummel.
6. Johan Santana expects to pitch this season, writes Ken Belson, and he says he has not had a setback.
7. Carlos Beltran is still out.
8. The Mariners got good news about Franklin Gutierrez.
9. Zach Duke will miss the next 6 to 8 weeks.
10. Ian Stewart will play in a "B" game today.
11. Dustin McGowan's life as a starting pitcher is over.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Reds signed catcher Ryan Hanigan to a three-year deal that could net him $4.8 million -- a really nice reward for a 30-year-old grinder who reached the big leagues at age 26.
2. The Rangers have yet to back off their request in any deal for Michael Young: They want top prospects in return, and don't want to eat as much of the $48 million still owed to Young over the next three years. Rival executives -- many of whom look at Young as a player who probably has about $6-7 million in value -- say unless the Rangers relent, they think it's unlikely Texas will make a deal. Young will gain 10-and-5 rights in May, and time will tell whether that possibility will have any bearing on the Rangers' asking price.
3. The Royals claimed a pitcher on waivers.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. Over the next 11 days, the D-backs will make a decision on whether Russell Branyan will be their starting first baseman, writes Nick Piecoro. Branyan can opt out of his deal March 25, which means that he will either know he will have a regular job or else he can go look for a spot elsewhere (and by all accounts, he has been killing the ball).
2. Jason Donald's hand is sore, which means Lonnie Chisenhall might get a shot at being the Indians' third baseman, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. Braden Looper will either make the Cubs or go back to his family.
4. The Rockies have issues to address, writes Troy Renck.
5. The Rays are still unsure of the makeup of their bench and their bullpen.
6. The Astros' rotation appears set, other than the potential problem with Wandy Rodriguez.
7. The last spots on the Detroit roster will be a tough call. Casper Wells is hitting well.
8. John Mayberry is proving he belongs.
9. Charlie Morton is making a strong pitch to be a part of the Pittsburgh rotation, writes Ron Musselman.
10. Jake Fox is trying to make an impression on the Orioles, writes Dan Connolly.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Mariano Rivera made his spring debut, writes Ben Shpigel. Freddy Garcia's outing against the Twins wasn't quite as good, writes Mark Feinsand.
2. Ricky Nolasco couldn't find the strike zone, writes Manny Navarro.
3. John Danks looks great, writes Joe Cowley.
4. Chipper Jones continues to look great.
5. Jordan Zimmermann looked great, as Adam Kilgore writes.
6. Hideki Matsui hit his first spring homer.
7. Pablo Sandoval hit a triple, stole a base and continues to look great, as Carl Steward writes.
8. Jonathan Broxton had a good inning.
9. Tim Stauffer became the first San Diego pitcher to stretch out to five innings, as John Maffei writes.
10. B.J. Upton showed some aggressiveness on the bases, writes Marc Topkin.
11. Tommy Hunter struggled again.
12. Jaime Garcia got hammered, but feels he is making progress.
13. Francisco Liriano was better in his start; Joe Nathan got pounded.
UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole showed big league stuff Friday night, throwing six perfect innings before Georgia rallied in the seventh. Cole's performance, coupled with his size, athleticism and delivery, cemented his status as the top college arm in this draft -- and it illuminated many of the reasons he compares favorably to Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals.
Cole came out throwing 92-94 early, mostly two-seamers, with an above-average slider at 86-89 and a plus-plus changeup -- I'm talking Clay Buchholz/Johan Santana good -- at 84-87. He has great arm speed on the changeup and the action on the pitch is somewhere between the fade on a normal changeup and the bore on a lively fastball. He has tremendous confidence in the pitch, running it in on right-handed batters' hands, using it 0-0 or doubling up on it. The slider was also sharp but he wasn't as consistent with it, particularly when trying to backdoor the pitch to left-handed hitters -- Georgia's first hit came on such a pitch, which hung slightly and ended up in the left-center gap.
Cole uses his lower half extremely well with a ton of torque created by the way he rotates his hips and a strong stride toward the plate (although he wasn't always landing cleanly, possibly a function of the mound's condition). He's cleaned up his arm action since he matriculated at UCLA; in high school and even early in his freshman year, his stride was shorter and his arm was very late, to the point where his lower half wasn't helping him generate velocity. He also turns his pitching hand over sooner, which is generally good for reducing stress on the shoulder. Cole's body also looks better, as he's stronger and more physically mature, while still maintaining his athleticism.
Given where Cole is now and where Anthony Rendon (who DH'd again tonight) is, there is absolutely no question in my mind who the No. 1 prospect is for this year's draft. It's Cole, and that was also the unanimous sentiment among scouts with whom I spoke at the game. Cole could easily have pitched in the big leagues with the stuff he showed Friday night.
I think it's reasonable to discuss the comparison of Cole to Strasburg, who was the top college pitcher in the 2009 draft and among the best we've ever seen. Both pitchers are listed at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. Strasburg had more velocity, but not a lot more -- he'd sit 94-98 and touch 100, while Cole worked at 92-98 without touching anything over 98. Both featured above-average breaking balls; Strasburg's was more consistent than what Cole showed Friday. Cole has a far better changeup, and his changeup might even be better than Strasburg's breaking ball was at the time he was drafted.
Both could boast of track records of success, although Cole's came in a better conference, and in Cole's case the velocity was always there dating to high school, as opposed to Strasburg's sudden velocity spike when he got to San Diego State and improved his conditioning. As much as Strasburg was hyped and anticipated, Cole compares pretty favorably to him, and it's going to be hard for any team to pass on him at the top of this year's draft.
In the minds of many, the NL East was clinched on Dec. 15, 2010. That was the day that the Philadelphia Phillies signed Cliff Lee, giving them arguably the best starting rotation in baseball history. Almost immediately, most assumed the Phils would cruise to their fifth straight NL East title.
[h4]Philadelphia story[/h4]
Chase Utley not being ready for the start of the season isn't welcome news to Phils Phans, but the Phillies are a good enough team that they can absorb the loss.
Utley is about six wins a year better than any of the possible replacements (Delwyn Young, Josh Barfield, Pete Orr, Robb Quinlan or Jeff Larish are all 2B/3B possibilities) and -- as long as this isn't a long-term problem -- Philadelphia's still probably the best team in the NL East.
However, if Utley's knee is still an issue in June and Domonic Brown doesn't have a quick recovery, the team's only an unpleasant surprise away from losing its cushion over the Braves.
-- Dan Szymborski
But, as they say, that's why you don't play the games on paper.
A lot has changed since that fateful December day, and given the recent injuries suffered by certain key Phillies -- not to mention some time to regain our perspective -- things aren't looking quite as sunny in Philadelphia. In fact, with the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley's knee tendinitis, not to mention the Phils' right-field situation in light of Jayson Werth's departure and Domonic Brown's broken hand, it's unclear whether the Phillies are even the NL East favorites anymore. That's troubling news for a team that's built to win now, and if you compare the Phillies' roster to that of the Atlanta Braves, it appears Atlanta is poised to regain its chokehold on the division it dominated for much of the past two decades.
Make no mistake, until the severity of Utley's knee injury is known, the Phillies are still the favorites for 2011. According to Baseball Prospectus' projected standings, the Phils will win 91 games and the Braves 87. Of course, Utley has been worth an average of more than six wins above replacement over the past six seasons. And even last year, when a broken thumb cost him almost a third of the season, he was still worth 4.2 WAR. His current backup is Wilson Valdez, essentially the definition of replacement level. A nagging injury to Utley could easily put the Braves over the top. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
With the injury to Brown, the Phillies' lineup is so old that Old Hoss Radbourn could give you a scouting report. OK, maybe not that old, but 29-year-old Ben Francisco is the youngest member of the projected of the Opening Day lineup.
Atlanta isn't young, but it's much younger and features two potential cornerstones, in 22-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman and 20-year-old right fielder Jason Heyward, who posted a .393 OBP last year and is possibly the most valuable young talent in the game. Catcher Brian McCann is just 27 and one of the most consistently excellent players of the game. Speaking of consistent, the Braves shrewdly sold high on Omar Infante after his career year that featured a career-high batting average on balls in play, and used him to acquire second baseman Dan Uggla, who has more than 30 homers in four straight seasons. Atlanta finished fifth in the NL in runs last year, and should be much improved on offense. The Phillies were second in runs, but based on aging will almost surely be less potent.
Obviously, the Phillies have the edge on the rubber, but the Braves' rotation isn't chopped liver, and it will cost -- in total -- only slightly more than the $20 million Roy Halladay is making in 2011. And that's really where the differences between the two teams comes to light. Check out their long-term payroll obligations:
[h4]Philadelphia vs. Atlanta Payroll Obligations (in millions)[/h4][table][tr][th=""]YEAR[/th][th=""]Phillies[/th][th=""]Braves[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]$112.9[/td][td]$62.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]$82.3[/td][td]$14.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]$50[/td][td]$13.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]$50[/td][td]$13.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]$37.5[/td][td]$0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phils have certainly been operating with a larger payroll in recent years, but the difference in long-term commitments is staggering. Philadelphia will be paying Halladay, Utley, Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard each more than $15 million -- in 2013. All of them are excellent players, but all are on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to be worth anything close to their salaries by then. And because of those commitments, it will be difficult for them to afford free agents while also retaining their top young players, such as Cole Hamels.
The Braves' only commitment beyond 2013 is the $13.2 million they owe Uggla in 2014 and 2015. Therefore, they have plenty of money to extend Heyward, Freeman, McCann and promising young right-hander Tommy Hanson should they deem them worthy of long-term commitments.
The one saving grace for the Phillies is their farm system, which Keith Law ranks as the fifth-best in baseball. Unfortunately for them, Law has the Braves' system in the No. 3 spot, and it is led by Julio Teheran, considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in the game.
Because of the Phillies' aforementioned financial commitments, they will need their top prospects, such as Brown, outfielder Jonathan Singleton and right-hander Jarred Cosart, to pan out in order to remain atop the division. The Braves, however, aren't nearly as desperate for their prospects to prosper. With their long-term flexibility, they will be able to supplement their young core of Heyward, McCann and Hanson with free agents when necessary and know that it's likely that some combination of Freeman, Teheran and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino will become impact players.
Should Utley stay healthy and the Phillies win another World Series in the next couple of years, their fans will certainly forgive a couple of lean years down the road. However, Philadelphia is essentially doubling down on the next season or two, and if its core begins to age more rapidly than expected, those expecting to watch an all-time great team are going to be sorely disappointed. And the Braves are in prime position to pounce for both 2011 and beyond.
http://[h3][/h3][h3]Morton still in fifth starter chase[/h3]
10:58AM ET
[h5]Charlie Morton | Pirates [/h5]
Charlie Morton was a human pi on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff last season, absorbing a 2-12 record with a 7.57 ERA. Despite the inflated numbers, Morton is back for more and is making a strong pitch for the fifth starter's job.
GM Neal Huntington tells Ron Musselman of the Post-Gazette that the team still sees potential in Morton, who has a 2.25 ERA in three spring games.
Morton's primary competition is from free agent Scott Olsen, who has been slowed by a hamstring injury this spring. Olsen, scheduled to pitch Monday, will not be earning the job simply on a past body of work.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scales pushing for roster spot[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Bobby Scales had plenty of minor league miles on the odometer when he finally made his big league debut in 2009 at the ripe old age of 31. The veteran infielder may now get the chance to enjoy an Opening Day in a major league uniform.
Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times reports that Scales could be on the verge of pushing Augie Ojeda and Darwin Barney for the Cubs' lone infield bench opening. Scales is hitting a sizzling .438 in Cactus League play, including a three-hit game Saturday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Finding a new home for Young[/h3]
10:23AM ET
[h5]Michael Young | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Cubs would be interested in Young if they could get some financial relief.
The Cubs could use Young at second base, where Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker have been less than overwhelming this spring.
--
UPDATE: Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that a deal between the Texas and the Diamondbacks is not something that should be expected to occur, which comes as no surprise since Young is pricey, 33 years of age and the D-backs are in a rebuilding mode.
--
We mentioned earlier this week that no news is not necessarily good news for the Phillies when it comes to the status of second baseman Chase Utley. The Phillies clearly are concerned about Utley, who was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis in his right knee and has yet to play in a Grapefruit League.
There has been ample speculation that Michael Young, who has become a square peg in a round hole in Texas, would be a logical fit in Philadelphia. Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News admits there are some major financial obstacles, but adds a deal is not farfetched.
The Rangers are looking for pitching help and would love to have Joe Blanton, but his salary is an issue. The Rangers would likely ask for prospects as well. If the Phillies made the move for Young, it also would hinder or prevent their ability to make another major move at midseason.
Our Buster Olney gives his take from the Rangers' perspective:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog...angers drive hard bargain</a></p><blockquote>
http://[h3]Third base issues in LA[/h3]
10:18AM ET
[h5]Casey Blake | Dodgers [/h5]
Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has plans to periodically rest Casey Blake in hopes that the third baseman, who hit just .248 last season, doesn't wear down.
Injuries also could be an issue with the 37-year-old Blake, who is listed as day-to-day with a rib injury, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.
Blake will likely share time with Jamey Carroll, but there might be other options. The Dodgers also could also be scanning the waiver wire for a veteran who might be released later in camp. Luis Castillo should be released by the Mets, but might not be a fit in LA unless the Dodgers put him at second base and move Juan Uribe to third.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Sox look to pocket Cash?[/h3]
9:50AM ET
[h5]Kevin Cash | Rangers [/h5]
The Boston Red Sox are looking to place a major league-ready catcher at Triple-A Pawtucket and might be interested in dealing for Kevin Cash, speculates Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Cash, who has two previous stints with the Red Sox, is a non-roster invitee of the Texas Rangers.
Jason Varitek will begin the season as the backup to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in Boston. Cafardo says there is still doubt as to whether Mark Wagner or Luis Exposito can fill the emergency third-catcher role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Chisenhall closer to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
Top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is a step closer to being the Cleveland Indians' Opening Day third baseman than he was last week, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
Jason Donald is the front-runner, but he continues to be bothered by a bone bruise in his hand. While manager Manny Acta insists that Donald has time to be ready by Opening Day, bone bruises can be tricky, and the Tribe might best be served by giving the injury more time to heal.
Chisenhall has done his part to claim the job, batting .478 (11-for-23) with two homers in 11 Cactus League games. But by keeping Chisenhall in the minors to start the year, the Tribe can control his service time clock and push back his eligibility for arbitration.
If Donald lands on the DL, Acta could turn to temporary solutions such as Luis Valbuena or Jayson Nix.
Chisenhall was ranked No. 39 overall by ESPN Insider's Keith Law this winter. Here's Law's report on the left-handed hitter:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 39: Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
http://[h3]Could Stewart lose his job?[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]Ian Stewart | Rockies [/h5]
It has been a frustrating spring for Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart, who suffered a sprained right knee in the first inning of the first Cactus League game and has not played since.
Stewart is scheduled to play in a B game Monday, but Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports Stewart may not get enough at-bats to be ready by Opening Day. Manager Jim Tracy insists there is no need to rush Stewart, a .256 hitter with 61 RBI last season.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5176Ty Wigginton could make the bulk of the starts at third in Stewart's absence. Renck adds that Wigginton could win the job on a more permanent basis if Stewart's hitting doesn't improve. If Wigginton settles in at third base, that could mean more at-bats in right field for Seth Smith.
If Stewart goes the disabled list, the Rockies will carry an extra position player such as Jordan Pacheco or Eric Young Jr.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Buehrle's future[/h3]
8:32AM ET
[h5]Mark Buehrle | White Sox [/h5]
Ask Mark Buehrle about his future, and the answer can differ about as often as the wind changes direction in Chicago.
The White Sox left-hander hinted in 2009 that he might not be willing to pitch beyond the 2011 season, when his current contract runs out. A few weeks ago, Buehrle changed course and said he wants to pitch beyond 2011 rather than retire.
Is the retirement option back on the table? In a radio interview Wednesday, Buehrle says he needs the right fit in order to continue playing. "I'm not going to just go out there and play for the money or play in a spot that I don't want to be, just to play for a couple years to get some more money," Buehrle told WSCR-AM 670.
Dan McNeil wrote in Sunday's Chicago Tribune that Buehrle has played himself into an enviable position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Morgan's status in D.C.[/h3]
8:25AM ET
[h5]Nyjer Morgan | Nationals [/h5]
With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo hints that the center field competition is a tight, three-horse race between Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel.
Morgan has fallen back to the pack by hitting a mere .172 in Grapefruit League play, but Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports it is unlikely the Nats will release the veteran in a cost-cutting move, similar to what they did with Elijah Dukes last March.
Bernadina and Ankiel also are in the race for the left field job. As of Saturday, Mike Morse appeared to be winning that competition, according to skipper Jim Riggleman.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Santana?[/h3]
7:59AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets left-hander Johan Santana spent part of his 32nd birthday Sunday disputing a report in the Bergen Record that his 2011 season is in jeopardy.
Santana told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that he is experiencing "regular soreness," but says he is steadily recovering from September 14 surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder.
Even if the report is overstated, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reminds us that one fact remains -- neither Santana nor the Mets have a clear timetable as to when the pitcher will return.
The weekend rumors should have no immediate impact on manager Terry Collins, who is formulating his Opening Day roster with Santana out of the picture.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs first base battle[/h3]
7:37AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Diamondbacks' competition at first base remains a three-horse field, even if Juan Miranda has done little to dissuade his status as the morning line favorite.
Miranda was perceived as the favorite over Brandon Allen before the Snakes expanded the competition with the signing of Russell Branyan last month. With three weeks until Opening Day, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says GM Kevin Towers gave no indication that Miranda has fallen behind the others, calling his defense "very, very good."
Miranda is hitting just .241 but has solid plate discipline with eight walks, while Branyan has been tearing the cover off the ball, including his third homer among three hits Saturday to raise his spring average to .467.
Manager Kirk Gibson has stressed the importance of defense, which would play into Miranda's chances.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported Sunday that the D-backs are considering using Branyan as a late inning bat off the bench.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Duke's injury[/h3]
7:27AM ET
[h5]Zach Duke | Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Diamondbacks' crowded rotation race opened up slightly over the weekend with word that left-hander Zach Duke is likely to miss two months with two fractured bones in his pitching hand.
Duke ($4.25 million) and Armando Galarraga ($2.3 million) were penciled in as fourth and fifth starters, due in part to the D-backs' financial commitment. General manager Kevin Towers said Sunday that Duke's job will be filled internally.
Right-hander Aaron Heilman is being a chance to compete for a rotation spot, but at this point, he appears to be behind Barry Enright and Galarraga. Enright, who faded down the stretch in 2010, has looked good this month (2.00 ERA, 1 walk in 9 IP).
Even with his salary, Duke may not be assured of a rotation spot when he returns.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]All is quiet on Pujols front[/h3]
6:55AM ET
[h5]Albert Pujols | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have have a tumultuous offseason, but it appears the media scrutiny around the situation with Albert Pujols has quieted down, perhaps partially due to the news that Adam Wainwright would miss the entire season with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery earlier this month.
Team Pujols put a deadline on contract talks, and that deadline came and went once Pujols reported for spring training. So far, there are no indications that the superstar will back off and negotiate during the season.
We'll likely have to discuss a lot of rumors of other clubs, including the Chicago Cubs, planning their 2011-12 winters around making a play for Pujols via free agency. But we'll also keep in mind that a trade is not 100 percent out of the question, especially if the Cardinals fall out of the race early this summer, despite Pujols' 10-5 rights to veto a trade and his claim that he'll invoke those rights.
Brett Lawrie has put in a ton of hard work to transition to third base this spring.
Brett Lawrie's reputation preceded him to the Toronto Blue Jays, and the stories were not good. A prima donna, talent evaluators said. A pain in the rear, they said. Very difficult for the organization, they said. After the Milwaukee Brewers traded Lawrie -- the 16th overall pick in the 2008 draft -- for Shaun Marcum at the winter meetings, you could not go up an escalator without hearing another ugly tale about Lawrie.
Alex Anthopoulos, the general manager of the Blue Jays, has been in his job for about 18 months and already has a reputation among his peers for doing exhaustive research, and presumably he heard the same stories as he prepared to make the trade for the infielder. But the Jays' experience with Lawrie has been excellent, Anthopoulos said on Saturday, and Lawrie has been doing excellent work, since being shifted from second base to third base.
"He's been working his butt off," Anthopoulos said. "All of our coaches are blown away by how quickly he's making adjustments."
The Blue Jays broached the subject of a position change for Lawrie at the time they made the trade for him, given his offensive prowess (at age 20 last season, he hit .285 with eight homers, 16 triples and 30 stolen bases in Double-A) and given the fact it's always easier to find a second baseman than a good third baseman. "I don't care -- I'll play anywhere," Lawrie told Anthopoulos. "Put me wherever you want."
It was a good first sign that Lawrie, a native of British Columbia and a former catcher who turned 21 years old in January, was evolving through his baseball experience, and he has continued that evolution since coming to camp, while learning the new position. "Right now, he's doing everything defensively on his physical ability," Anthopoulos said. "He's got some adjustments to make, but we think that'll come with playing time ... Our scouts think he could be an above-average third baseman defensively, over time."
Lawrie has hit well, batting .360 with two homers, and he is a temptation for the Blue Jays; they could install him at third and leave Jose Bautista in the outfield for good. But Anthopoulos has walked through the various possibilities with Lawrie, including the chance that the Blue Jays could decide to send Lawrie to the minors, where he could learn more about playing third base, where he could refine his defensive skills, where he could have a chance to dominate offensively. "I told him we would be open-minded" about Lawrie making the team, Anthopoulos recalled. "He said, 'Hey, when I'm ready, I'm ready.'"
Lawrie has been sharing a place with two players from whom he can learn, catcher J.P. Arencibia and outfielder Travis Snider -- two players who, like Lawrie, are former top picks who have learned about making adjustments to life as a professional ballplayer.
And so far, Lawrie is apparently making major adjustments with the Blue Jays.
• The Jays have been running like crazy this spring, writes Mike Rutsey.
• Ricky Romero, Toronto's Opening Day starter, got knocked around.
[h3]Updates related to the earthquake and tsunami in Japan[/h3]
1. A couple of former Chicago Cubs who are playing in Japan are OK.
2. Hiroki Kuroda made contact with his brother, who is OK.
3. Kei Igawa was able to track down his family.
4. Takashi Saito is worried about his homeland.
[h3]Bad news for Santana[/h3]
Johan Santana's season is in jeopardy, write Steve Popper and Bob Klapisch; the team thinks it'll be lucky if Santana pitches this year.
My own sources indicate that the Mets have viewed Santana's rehabilitation as a long process, and that if he requires more time, then he won't be rushed back. The Mets have not counted on a lot from Santana this year, given the nature of his surgery.
[h3]More on the Mets[/h3]
Much gloom hovers over the New York Mets organization these days, of course, because of the Madoff situation, because of the uncertain status of Santana, because the team is not likely to contend and because this figures to be a transitional year, given the expected departures in the next eight months of Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran (along with Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo).
There is no running from the simple fact that most of the headlines generated around the Mets this year will involve lawyers.
But the new Mets baseball operations regime, led by Sandy Alderson, is assessing the overall talent in the organization, and finding some pieces of hope.
1. There is some optimism that the team will be competitive this year -- if not necessarily playoff caliber -- because of what figures to be a good offense and defense. R.A. Dickey, who came out of nowhere to go 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA last season, is throwing well again this spring, with arguably the hardest knuckleball of any of those who have used it for a primary pitch in recent decades.
2. There is some talent to grow with coming through the minors, if the players continue to develop, from Ruben Tejada (who must prove he can hit to be more than a utility man) to Jordany Valdespin (who must clean up his defense and plate discipline) to second baseman Reese Havens, to their No. 1 pick in 2010, Matt Harvey. The new front office will have to generate a new wave of high-end pitching talent, behind Harvey.
[h3]Talent evaluator observations from around spring training[/h3]
1. Rave reviews continue to pour in about Gio Gonzalez of the Oakland Athletics, who made great improvement last season and seems on the cusp of climbing into the next tier of pitchers. Said one observer: "I think he's figured it out."
2. An evaluator on the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen reconstruction, which is a complete changing of the guard: "I think they have a chance to work it out. [Jake] McGee has closer's stuff; it's just a matter of him commanding his fastball. If he can do that, they'll be able to mix-and-match at the end of games."
3. On the progress and growth of David Price: "He is commanding his fastball inside to right-handed hitters very well. Very aggressive."
4. Brad Lidge, the Philadelphia Phillies' closer, is throwing at 86-87 mph, markedly less than his typical in-season velocity. But keep in mind that a lot of veteran relievers will show pedestrian velocity early in spring training before ramping up the velocity late in camp or at the outset of the season. "There's no reason to push it," Mariano Rivera said earlier this spring. Charlie Manuel says nobody should worry about Lidge.
5. About Desmond Jennings, the Rays' 24-year-old outfield prospect: "He doesn't seem to have a clue at the plate, any kind of real plan. He's got ability, but I'm not seeing a lot of refinement in the way he hits."
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Joe Mauer caught for the first time, in a side session.
2. Joel Zumaya has been shut down for a week, at least.
3. Injuries already have become a factor for the Colorado Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
4. Adrian Beltre is close to returning to games, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Ryan Braun suffered a strain, but says it's not serious.
6. Andrew McCutchen had just a minor wrist irritation; there is greater concern, however, about James McDonald.
7. Dontrelle Willis suffered a freak injury.
8. The Cincinnati Reds are shutting down Johnny Cueto for a couple of days.
9. Forgot to post this yesterday: Grady Sizemore has started doing more running, more cutting, with more of the type of action that he'll need to play in games. He could be a month or so away from being ready to play in the big leagues.
10. David Newhan is trying to come back after a serious surfing injury.
11. Within this notebook, there is word that Joey Devine feels like he's going through a normal spring training progression, despite being shut down after nine pitches during a simulated game.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Ruben Amaro got an extension.
2. The news conference announcing the departure of Chuck Greenberg was very awkward, writes Gil LeBreton. Jon Daniels is navigating through change.
3. Brad Mills is putting together the Astros' lineup, Zachary Levine writes.
4. Baseball has some ownership issues, writes Phil Rogers. Within this piece, there is also speculation that the Phillies might be willing to trade either Cole Hamels or Roy Oswalt to Texas as part of a Michael Young trade. It's hard to imagine that the Phillies would compromise the strength of their starting rotation, which is the backbone of the team right now. We'll see.
5. Marc Carig writes about the different ways that Joe Girardi could structure his lineup.
6. Mike Scioscia will start making cuts.
7. As expected, Bryce Harper was sent to Class A to resume his baseball education.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. Baltimore Orioles pitcher Zach Britton had another great outing on Saturday.
2. Michael Morse, who is having a great spring, has become the front-runner to win the Washington Nationals' left-field job, writes Adam Kilgore.
3. Kyle McClellan hasn't won the No. 5 spot yet, says Tony La Russa.
4. Within this piece, there is word that Juan Miranda is the front-runner to be the Arizona Diamondbacks' first baseman.
5. The Cleveland Indians have some competition in their camp for pitching jobs, writes Paul Hoynes. Within that notebook, there is word that Fausto Carmona had another dominating spring performance.
6. Greg Dobbs is hoping he can resurrect his career with the Florida Marlins, Clark Spencer writes.
7. Rich Harden is out of the competition for a spot in the Oakland rotation, Susan Slusser writes.
8. Blake Hawksworth is looking to bite into the role of reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
9. Jason Isringhausen has gone from reckless rookie to sage, writes David Waldstein.
10. Jesus Flores has fallen behind Wilson Ramos in the battle for the No. 2 job in the Nationals' camp.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Carl Pavano has 13 scoreless innings this spring, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. A.J. Burnett has yet to issue a walk.
3. Alex Gordon had another big day for the Kansas City Royals, driving in six runs.
4. Russell Branyan continues to have a great spring for the D-backs, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Felix Hernandez impressed some wide-eyed kids, Larry Stone writes. Meanwhile, Justin Smoak had a good day.
6. Adrian Gonzalez is batting 1.000 after his first game. The one swing brings some relief, writes Ron Borges.
7. Tim Hudson is pleased with his progress, writes David O'Brien.
8. Stop if you've heard this before: Chipper Jones had a good day against the Mets.
9. John Lackey had a nice outing.
10. Josh Johnson has a 10.00 ERA so far this spring, Joe Capozzi writes. Johnson is working on a changeup.
11. Brad Penny had a good outing for the Detroit Tigers.
12. Clayton Richard doesn't want to talk about why his spring debut was delayed, writes Bill Center.
13. Juan Uribe didn't play against the San Francisco Giants, again.
14. Mark Teahen is hitting well. He'd be a nice fit for the Los Angeles Angels, if the two sides could work out a trade.
[h3]A new line of work for Cashman[/h3]
The other day, Brian Cashman answered his phone while waiting to be served at a coffee place, and he mused that whenever he finishes his work as a general manager, he might like to open a coffee place. He is often asked how it was that he worked for the demanding George Steinbrenner so many years, and coffee goes a long way toward explaining that, he joked.
"Cash's Coffee... For The Jolt You Need," he said, mentioning the title and marketing theme of the would-be establishment.
[h3]From the mailbag[/h3]
My question is: do you see the Pirates being a .500 team any time soon? Oh, and I love it when you talk about cows. I live on a dairy farm also.
-- Corey Wilt (Everett, Pa.)
Corey: I'm a sucker for questions from a dairy farmer, but you're asking about baseball, and this means you won't care to get my perspective on Jersey cows or maple syrup production or manure-shoveling. Oh, well.
About the Pirates ... It's evident to folks in other organizations that, overall, the Pittsburgh franchise has markedly more high-end talent than it did when GM Neal Huntington took over. But the hole they were in was so deep that it'll take another two or three years of productive drafting and development before we could say they might be a factor in contending for the NL Central title.
Dayton Moore took over for Allard Baird as the Royals' GM in the summer of 2006 and, after five years of strong work within their reconstruction (which included spending increases in the draft), they are now a couple of years away from seeing a major wave of talent manifest in the big leagues. That gives you some kind of idea of how long rebuilding takes -- and this only has become more challenging because more and more teams are working from the same sophisticated playbook of assessing and collecting players based on skill metrics and value formulas.
Moore assumed control of the Royals in 2006 and has had the patient support of ownership. Huntington took over the Pirates in September of 2007, and time will tell if he gets the same kind of backing from his bosses.
Whether they like it or not, the Baltimore Orioles are stuck in the AL East, so general manager Andy MacPhail's job description is to accumulate enough talent to take down the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox, not even mentioning the quality rosters in both Tampa Bay and Toronto. Several years into another rebuilding process, the Orioles have some players who were supposed to be franchise cornerstones, but as of yet they haven't quite lived up to the billing.
The best example is Matt Wieters. He wasn't just supposed to be a good catcher -- he was billed as a switch-hitting Joe Mauer with more power. To date, the only part of that description that has proven accurate is the fact that Wieters does indeed hit from both sides of the plate. His career .266 AVG/.328 OBP/.393 SLG line is simply not what was envisioned when he burst on the scene, and after two years of letdowns, questions are beginning to surface about just what the Orioles have in Wieters.
While he isn't likely to live up to the expectations that were thrust upon him -- no one should be expected to perform at that level, really -- history suggests that Wieters' slow start isn't abnormal. It's simply a truism in baseball that young catchers don't hit.
Over the past 50 years, 70 catchers have accumulated at least 600 plate appearances before the end of their age-24 seasons, giving us a decent sample of players who had at least one full season's worth of playing time in the big leagues by the time they were Wieters' age. As a group, their overall line was .259/.325/.390, nearly a dead ringer for Wieters' performance. Of course, the average is skewed up by the fact that the guys who hit well got more playing time than the guys who hit poorly, so his career .721 OPS actually ranks 23rd on that list, putting him in the top third of all the players in the sample.
While he hasn't made an immediate impact like Mike Piazza and Brian McCann did, there are far more examples of catchers who didn't really show much offense in the big leagues until after they turned 25. Mike Sweeney, Charles Johnson, Craig Biggio and Todd Hundley all hit worse than Wieters did in the majors through the same point of their careers, but still became quality offensive players despite their early struggles.
The similarity in all four breakouts was late developing power, as none of them showed much in the way of driving the ball before turning 25. This is also the skill that is most surprisingly absent from Wieters' performance; he was a prolific power hitter at Georgia Tech as well as during his climb up the minor league ladder, slugging .576 in two minor league seasons. At 6-foot-5 with the build of a first baseman, power should come naturally to Wieters. History suggests that we can't make too many judgments about his relative lack of thump so far, as few catchers develop into big home run threats at an early age.
Perhaps more interesting, however, are the group of good hitting catchers who aren't on the list we mentioned earlier -- they simply weren't good enough to get significant playing time in the big leagues before turning the big 25. Among those who fell outside the scope of our original sample are Jorge Posada, Victor Martinez, Jason Varitek and Chris Hoiles. By WAR (wins above replacement), those are four of the top 12 catchers in the past 20 years, and at the same point in their careers as Wieters is now, they were still trying to convince their organizations that they were worth regular major league playing time.
In fact, if you look at the 10 best hitting catchers since 1990 by wRC+ (an index where 100 is average), the list is dominated by guys who didn't establish themselves as big league stars early in their careers.
[h4]Top Catchers: 1990-2010 (min 1000 PA)[/h4]
WRC+ measures how a player's offensive contribution measures against the league, with 100 representing league average.
[table][tr][th=""]Rank. Player[/th][th=""]WRC+[/th][/tr][tr][td]1. Mike Piazza[/td][td]140[/td][/tr][tr][td]2. Joe Mauer[/td][td]135[/td][/tr][tr][td]3. Jorge Posada[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]4. Darren Daulton[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]5. Mike Stanley[/td][td]125[/td][/tr][tr][td]6. Mickey Tettleton[/td][td]123[/td][/tr][tr][td]7. Chris Hoiles[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]8. Brian McCann[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]9. Victor Martinez[/td][td]120[/td][/tr][tr][td]10. Mike Napoli[/td][td]118[/td][/tr][tr][td]-- Matt Wieters [/td][td]88[/td][/tr][/table]
Piazza, Mauer, and McCann were great at a young age, but the other seven guys were all late bloomers. In fact, until Mauer and McCann came along, Piazza essentially stood alone with Johnny Bench as examples of modern-day catchers who came into the league and were dominant offensive forces right out of the gate.
Wieters' career path is the historical norm, but unfortunately for the perception of his future, he came along right on the heels of a pair of anomalies. If he had debuted a decade earlier, we would think nothing of his early struggles, as it was just accepted that catchers take longer to figure out how to hit big league pitching. Mauer and McCann raised the bar, and perhaps unfairly so, as they set levels that few catchers in history have been able to live up to.
Patience is almost universally required with young backstops. The fans in Minnesota and Atlanta got a free pass on the learning curve, but what Baltimore is going through is completely normal. Given his pedigree and history of offensive performances, it is far too early to be throwing out your list of Matt Wieters Facts right now. Given another year or two, the hype may not seem so crazy after all.
BRADENTON, Fla. -- The greatest question about the Red Sox, as they enter the 2011 season generally regarded as the best on-paper team in the American League, is about their starting pitching. The last turn through has not been good for this group.
Daisuke Matsuzaka has had a rough spring, and Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters Sunday about another change Boston will make to Matsuzaka's regimen. In the past, he has had a long-toss session and a bullpen session on the same day, something he did as part of his schedule in Japan, which had an extra day built in. Francona, pitching coach Curt Young and Matsuzaka talked about splitting up the long-toss session and the bullpen session into different days, because there was concern that Matsuzaka couldn't handle as much out of the bullpen work as Boston wanted after throwing long-toss.
The mechanics required to discuss this kind of thing with Matsuzaka -- a translator is called and Matsuzaka is brought into the office and a laborious conversation follows -- is not something Francona likes, because he can't stand the way it feels like Matsuzaka is being reprimanded, when he's not. A change in Jon Lester's regimen would require a 30-second conversation in the outfield.
But the fact is that Matsuzaka, now entering his fifth year with Boston, remains a work in progress.
Curt Young is changing things up with him.
And on Sunday, Josh Beckett took the mound against the Pirates and he never looked fully comfortable, never looked at ease. After throwing his first pitch, Beckett took about 45 seconds to kick and rebuild the hole dug by Pirates right-hander Brad Lincoln, and afterward, he repeatedly asked for new balls, presumably to get a different feel for the seams. Even after he got good results among the first hitters, Beckett slapped at the side of his leg in frustration, clearly feeling that he didn't execute his last pitch as well as he wanted.
He allowed one run the first time through the lineup, but in the midst of his second pass through the batting order, Beckett's day disintegrated, as John Tomase writes. It's spring training and the linescore is washed away and literally meaningless, but Beckett is coming back from the worst season of his career, and everybody in the Red Sox world -- including Beckett -- would probably feel better if he was rolling up zeroes. He's got about three starts left to piece it together.
By the way: Alfredo Aceves, who signed with Boston after the Yankees passed on him because of past back trouble, will start tonight after being stretched out in his regimen by the Red Sox this spring. In Boston's perfect world, the Red Sox wouldn't need him to step into the rotation. But there are concerns about the Red Sox starters this spring.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Late last season, I spoke to someone who has come to know Carlos Zambrano through the years and asked if he thought Big Z's strong second half would carry over to 2011 or if Zambrano's temper would inevitably blow up again. "How the hell do I know?" he said, laughing.
So far, so good: Zambrano has thrown well this spring, and according to Cubs general manager Jim Hendry, Big Z is in better shape and he has his mind together and has his fastball back. Remember those outings last year when Zambrano was clocked at 88-90 mph? Well, so far this spring, he's throwing 92-94.
Look, if the Cubs are going to win, their starting rotation -- which could be pretty good -- will have to be their catapult, and right now, Zambrano and Ryan Dempster and Randy Wells and rotation candidate Andrew Cashner look good.
• One of the most difficult pitches to master, veteran pitchers will tell you, is what is generally known within clubhouses as the "Greg Maddux two-seamer." It's a sinker thrown by a right-handed pitcher near the front hip of the left-handed hitter, a pitch seemingly so far inside that the batter will give up on it -- only to see the ball veer, with late movement, over the inside corner for a strike.
Although Trevor Cahill has one of the best sinking fastballs in the majors, he did not pitch inside much to left-handed hitters much in 2009, before doing that more in 2010, and there are signs he is beginning to get a feel for that Greg Maddux two-seamer. He struck out a handful of hitters looking in his start Sunday, and some of those were with the sinker that ran back over the inside corner to left-handed hitters. It can be a vicious weapon for a pitcher who will mostly live on the opposite side of the plate -- away to left-handed hitters, inside to right-handers -- with his sinker.
• A lot of switch-hitters prefer to take their batting practice strictly in adherence with the side the BP pitcher throws from. In other words, if the pitcher is right-handed, the hitter will always bat left-handed, and the pitcher is left-handed, the hitter will bat right-handed, to keep a consistent look at the ball out of the pitcher's hand.
Jason Varitek, Boston's switch-hitting catcher, takes a different approach. As he took batting practice against a right-handed pitcher Sunday, he flip-flopped round to round, hitting left-handed and then switching over to the right of the plate. He explained afterward that he's always done this, because every ballpark is different, every backdrop is different, and he wants to get a feel from both sides of the plate. And when he takes his turn at batting practice, he can't control whether the pitcher will be right-handed or left-handed. "You take what you can get," he said.
• Observations from some talent evaluators:
1. Jered Weaver looks poised to follow up on his outstanding 2010 season, says one evaluator: "He's throwing the ball great … great command."
2. The greatest challenge that the Mets probably face, beyond the ownership issues, is combating the cloud that hangs over the franchise. "They've got to change that negativity," said one longtime evaluator. He's right. For a month, the stories coming out of the Mets camp have been, in no particular order: Madoff stuff; Oliver Perez's futility; Jose Reyes' likely future with a team other than the Mets; Carlos Beltran's knee problems; Johan Santana's slow rehab. It'll be a battle for them to get out from underneath all of this.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Wandy Rodriguez has some shoulder tendinitis. Not good.
2. Grady Sizemore ran bases and says he could be back in games soon.
3. The Dodgers' Casey Blake has a sore back.
4. Justin Duchscherer is hurting again.
5. David Freese took another good step, writes Rick Hummel.
6. Johan Santana expects to pitch this season, writes Ken Belson, and he says he has not had a setback.
7. Carlos Beltran is still out.
8. The Mariners got good news about Franklin Gutierrez.
9. Zach Duke will miss the next 6 to 8 weeks.
10. Ian Stewart will play in a "B" game today.
11. Dustin McGowan's life as a starting pitcher is over.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Reds signed catcher Ryan Hanigan to a three-year deal that could net him $4.8 million -- a really nice reward for a 30-year-old grinder who reached the big leagues at age 26.
2. The Rangers have yet to back off their request in any deal for Michael Young: They want top prospects in return, and don't want to eat as much of the $48 million still owed to Young over the next three years. Rival executives -- many of whom look at Young as a player who probably has about $6-7 million in value -- say unless the Rangers relent, they think it's unlikely Texas will make a deal. Young will gain 10-and-5 rights in May, and time will tell whether that possibility will have any bearing on the Rangers' asking price.
3. The Royals claimed a pitcher on waivers.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. Over the next 11 days, the D-backs will make a decision on whether Russell Branyan will be their starting first baseman, writes Nick Piecoro. Branyan can opt out of his deal March 25, which means that he will either know he will have a regular job or else he can go look for a spot elsewhere (and by all accounts, he has been killing the ball).
2. Jason Donald's hand is sore, which means Lonnie Chisenhall might get a shot at being the Indians' third baseman, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. Braden Looper will either make the Cubs or go back to his family.
4. The Rockies have issues to address, writes Troy Renck.
5. The Rays are still unsure of the makeup of their bench and their bullpen.
6. The Astros' rotation appears set, other than the potential problem with Wandy Rodriguez.
7. The last spots on the Detroit roster will be a tough call. Casper Wells is hitting well.
8. John Mayberry is proving he belongs.
9. Charlie Morton is making a strong pitch to be a part of the Pittsburgh rotation, writes Ron Musselman.
10. Jake Fox is trying to make an impression on the Orioles, writes Dan Connolly.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Mariano Rivera made his spring debut, writes Ben Shpigel. Freddy Garcia's outing against the Twins wasn't quite as good, writes Mark Feinsand.
2. Ricky Nolasco couldn't find the strike zone, writes Manny Navarro.
3. John Danks looks great, writes Joe Cowley.
4. Chipper Jones continues to look great.
5. Jordan Zimmermann looked great, as Adam Kilgore writes.
6. Hideki Matsui hit his first spring homer.
7. Pablo Sandoval hit a triple, stole a base and continues to look great, as Carl Steward writes.
8. Jonathan Broxton had a good inning.
9. Tim Stauffer became the first San Diego pitcher to stretch out to five innings, as John Maffei writes.
10. B.J. Upton showed some aggressiveness on the bases, writes Marc Topkin.
11. Tommy Hunter struggled again.
12. Jaime Garcia got hammered, but feels he is making progress.
13. Francisco Liriano was better in his start; Joe Nathan got pounded.
UCLA right-hander Gerrit Cole showed big league stuff Friday night, throwing six perfect innings before Georgia rallied in the seventh. Cole's performance, coupled with his size, athleticism and delivery, cemented his status as the top college arm in this draft -- and it illuminated many of the reasons he compares favorably to Stephen Strasburg of the Washington Nationals.
Cole came out throwing 92-94 early, mostly two-seamers, with an above-average slider at 86-89 and a plus-plus changeup -- I'm talking Clay Buchholz/Johan Santana good -- at 84-87. He has great arm speed on the changeup and the action on the pitch is somewhere between the fade on a normal changeup and the bore on a lively fastball. He has tremendous confidence in the pitch, running it in on right-handed batters' hands, using it 0-0 or doubling up on it. The slider was also sharp but he wasn't as consistent with it, particularly when trying to backdoor the pitch to left-handed hitters -- Georgia's first hit came on such a pitch, which hung slightly and ended up in the left-center gap.
Cole uses his lower half extremely well with a ton of torque created by the way he rotates his hips and a strong stride toward the plate (although he wasn't always landing cleanly, possibly a function of the mound's condition). He's cleaned up his arm action since he matriculated at UCLA; in high school and even early in his freshman year, his stride was shorter and his arm was very late, to the point where his lower half wasn't helping him generate velocity. He also turns his pitching hand over sooner, which is generally good for reducing stress on the shoulder. Cole's body also looks better, as he's stronger and more physically mature, while still maintaining his athleticism.
Given where Cole is now and where Anthony Rendon (who DH'd again tonight) is, there is absolutely no question in my mind who the No. 1 prospect is for this year's draft. It's Cole, and that was also the unanimous sentiment among scouts with whom I spoke at the game. Cole could easily have pitched in the big leagues with the stuff he showed Friday night.
I think it's reasonable to discuss the comparison of Cole to Strasburg, who was the top college pitcher in the 2009 draft and among the best we've ever seen. Both pitchers are listed at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds. Strasburg had more velocity, but not a lot more -- he'd sit 94-98 and touch 100, while Cole worked at 92-98 without touching anything over 98. Both featured above-average breaking balls; Strasburg's was more consistent than what Cole showed Friday. Cole has a far better changeup, and his changeup might even be better than Strasburg's breaking ball was at the time he was drafted.
Both could boast of track records of success, although Cole's came in a better conference, and in Cole's case the velocity was always there dating to high school, as opposed to Strasburg's sudden velocity spike when he got to San Diego State and improved his conditioning. As much as Strasburg was hyped and anticipated, Cole compares pretty favorably to him, and it's going to be hard for any team to pass on him at the top of this year's draft.
In the minds of many, the NL East was clinched on Dec. 15, 2010. That was the day that the Philadelphia Phillies signed Cliff Lee, giving them arguably the best starting rotation in baseball history. Almost immediately, most assumed the Phils would cruise to their fifth straight NL East title.
[h4]Philadelphia story[/h4]
Chase Utley not being ready for the start of the season isn't welcome news to Phils Phans, but the Phillies are a good enough team that they can absorb the loss.
Utley is about six wins a year better than any of the possible replacements (Delwyn Young, Josh Barfield, Pete Orr, Robb Quinlan or Jeff Larish are all 2B/3B possibilities) and -- as long as this isn't a long-term problem -- Philadelphia's still probably the best team in the NL East.
However, if Utley's knee is still an issue in June and Domonic Brown doesn't have a quick recovery, the team's only an unpleasant surprise away from losing its cushion over the Braves.
-- Dan Szymborski
But, as they say, that's why you don't play the games on paper.
A lot has changed since that fateful December day, and given the recent injuries suffered by certain key Phillies -- not to mention some time to regain our perspective -- things aren't looking quite as sunny in Philadelphia. In fact, with the uncertainty surrounding Chase Utley's knee tendinitis, not to mention the Phils' right-field situation in light of Jayson Werth's departure and Domonic Brown's broken hand, it's unclear whether the Phillies are even the NL East favorites anymore. That's troubling news for a team that's built to win now, and if you compare the Phillies' roster to that of the Atlanta Braves, it appears Atlanta is poised to regain its chokehold on the division it dominated for much of the past two decades.
Make no mistake, until the severity of Utley's knee injury is known, the Phillies are still the favorites for 2011. According to Baseball Prospectus' projected standings, the Phils will win 91 games and the Braves 87. Of course, Utley has been worth an average of more than six wins above replacement over the past six seasons. And even last year, when a broken thumb cost him almost a third of the season, he was still worth 4.2 WAR. His current backup is Wilson Valdez, essentially the definition of replacement level. A nagging injury to Utley could easily put the Braves over the top. And that's just the tip of the iceberg.
With the injury to Brown, the Phillies' lineup is so old that Old Hoss Radbourn could give you a scouting report. OK, maybe not that old, but 29-year-old Ben Francisco is the youngest member of the projected of the Opening Day lineup.
Atlanta isn't young, but it's much younger and features two potential cornerstones, in 22-year-old first baseman Freddie Freeman and 20-year-old right fielder Jason Heyward, who posted a .393 OBP last year and is possibly the most valuable young talent in the game. Catcher Brian McCann is just 27 and one of the most consistently excellent players of the game. Speaking of consistent, the Braves shrewdly sold high on Omar Infante after his career year that featured a career-high batting average on balls in play, and used him to acquire second baseman Dan Uggla, who has more than 30 homers in four straight seasons. Atlanta finished fifth in the NL in runs last year, and should be much improved on offense. The Phillies were second in runs, but based on aging will almost surely be less potent.
Obviously, the Phillies have the edge on the rubber, but the Braves' rotation isn't chopped liver, and it will cost -- in total -- only slightly more than the $20 million Roy Halladay is making in 2011. And that's really where the differences between the two teams comes to light. Check out their long-term payroll obligations:
[h4]Philadelphia vs. Atlanta Payroll Obligations (in millions)[/h4][table][tr][th=""]YEAR[/th][th=""]Phillies[/th][th=""]Braves[/th][/tr][tr][td]2012[/td][td]$112.9[/td][td]$62.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]2013[/td][td]$82.3[/td][td]$14.7[/td][/tr][tr][td]2014[/td][td]$50[/td][td]$13.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2015[/td][td]$50[/td][td]$13.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]2016[/td][td]$37.5[/td][td]$0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phils have certainly been operating with a larger payroll in recent years, but the difference in long-term commitments is staggering. Philadelphia will be paying Halladay, Utley, Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard each more than $15 million -- in 2013. All of them are excellent players, but all are on the wrong side of 30 and unlikely to be worth anything close to their salaries by then. And because of those commitments, it will be difficult for them to afford free agents while also retaining their top young players, such as Cole Hamels.
The Braves' only commitment beyond 2013 is the $13.2 million they owe Uggla in 2014 and 2015. Therefore, they have plenty of money to extend Heyward, Freeman, McCann and promising young right-hander Tommy Hanson should they deem them worthy of long-term commitments.
The one saving grace for the Phillies is their farm system, which Keith Law ranks as the fifth-best in baseball. Unfortunately for them, Law has the Braves' system in the No. 3 spot, and it is led by Julio Teheran, considered by many to be the best pitching prospect in the game.
Because of the Phillies' aforementioned financial commitments, they will need their top prospects, such as Brown, outfielder Jonathan Singleton and right-hander Jarred Cosart, to pan out in order to remain atop the division. The Braves, however, aren't nearly as desperate for their prospects to prosper. With their long-term flexibility, they will be able to supplement their young core of Heyward, McCann and Hanson with free agents when necessary and know that it's likely that some combination of Freeman, Teheran and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino will become impact players.
Should Utley stay healthy and the Phillies win another World Series in the next couple of years, their fans will certainly forgive a couple of lean years down the road. However, Philadelphia is essentially doubling down on the next season or two, and if its core begins to age more rapidly than expected, those expecting to watch an all-time great team are going to be sorely disappointed. And the Braves are in prime position to pounce for both 2011 and beyond.
http://[h3][/h3][h3]Morton still in fifth starter chase[/h3]
10:58AM ET
[h5]Charlie Morton | Pirates [/h5]
Charlie Morton was a human pi on the Pittsburgh Pirates staff last season, absorbing a 2-12 record with a 7.57 ERA. Despite the inflated numbers, Morton is back for more and is making a strong pitch for the fifth starter's job.
GM Neal Huntington tells Ron Musselman of the Post-Gazette that the team still sees potential in Morton, who has a 2.25 ERA in three spring games.
Morton's primary competition is from free agent Scott Olsen, who has been slowed by a hamstring injury this spring. Olsen, scheduled to pitch Monday, will not be earning the job simply on a past body of work.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Scales pushing for roster spot[/h3]
10:35AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Bobby Scales had plenty of minor league miles on the odometer when he finally made his big league debut in 2009 at the ripe old age of 31. The veteran infielder may now get the chance to enjoy an Opening Day in a major league uniform.
Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times reports that Scales could be on the verge of pushing Augie Ojeda and Darwin Barney for the Cubs' lone infield bench opening. Scales is hitting a sizzling .438 in Cactus League play, including a three-hit game Saturday.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Finding a new home for Young[/h3]
10:23AM ET
[h5]Michael Young | Rangers [/h5]
UPDATE: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says the Cubs would be interested in Young if they could get some financial relief.
The Cubs could use Young at second base, where Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker have been less than overwhelming this spring.
--
UPDATE: Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes that a deal between the Texas and the Diamondbacks is not something that should be expected to occur, which comes as no surprise since Young is pricey, 33 years of age and the D-backs are in a rebuilding mode.
--
We mentioned earlier this week that no news is not necessarily good news for the Phillies when it comes to the status of second baseman Chase Utley. The Phillies clearly are concerned about Utley, who was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis in his right knee and has yet to play in a Grapefruit League.
There has been ample speculation that Michael Young, who has become a square peg in a round hole in Texas, would be a logical fit in Philadelphia. Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News admits there are some major financial obstacles, but adds a deal is not farfetched.
The Rangers are looking for pitching help and would love to have Joe Blanton, but his salary is an issue. The Rangers would likely ask for prospects as well. If the Phillies made the move for Young, it also would hinder or prevent their ability to make another major move at midseason.
Our Buster Olney gives his take from the Rangers' perspective:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog...angers drive hard bargain</a></p><blockquote>
http://[h3]Third base issues in LA[/h3]
10:18AM ET
[h5]Casey Blake | Dodgers [/h5]
Dodgers manager Don Mattingly has plans to periodically rest Casey Blake in hopes that the third baseman, who hit just .248 last season, doesn't wear down.
Injuries also could be an issue with the 37-year-old Blake, who is listed as day-to-day with a rib injury, according to MLB.com's Ken Gurnick.
Blake will likely share time with Jamey Carroll, but there might be other options. The Dodgers also could also be scanning the waiver wire for a veteran who might be released later in camp. Luis Castillo should be released by the Mets, but might not be a fit in LA unless the Dodgers put him at second base and move Juan Uribe to third.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Sox look to pocket Cash?[/h3]
9:50AM ET
[h5]Kevin Cash | Rangers [/h5]
The Boston Red Sox are looking to place a major league-ready catcher at Triple-A Pawtucket and might be interested in dealing for Kevin Cash, speculates Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
Cash, who has two previous stints with the Red Sox, is a non-roster invitee of the Texas Rangers.
Jason Varitek will begin the season as the backup to Jarrod Saltalamacchia in Boston. Cafardo says there is still doubt as to whether Mark Wagner or Luis Exposito can fill the emergency third-catcher role.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Chisenhall closer to The Show?[/h3]
9:23AM ET
[h5]Cleveland Indians [/h5]
Top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall is a step closer to being the Cleveland Indians' Opening Day third baseman than he was last week, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
Jason Donald is the front-runner, but he continues to be bothered by a bone bruise in his hand. While manager Manny Acta insists that Donald has time to be ready by Opening Day, bone bruises can be tricky, and the Tribe might best be served by giving the injury more time to heal.
Chisenhall has done his part to claim the job, batting .478 (11-for-23) with two homers in 11 Cactus League games. But by keeping Chisenhall in the minors to start the year, the Tribe can control his service time clock and push back his eligibility for arbitration.
If Donald lands on the DL, Acta could turn to temporary solutions such as Luis Valbuena or Jayson Nix.
Chisenhall was ranked No. 39 overall by ESPN Insider's Keith Law this winter. Here's Law's report on the left-handed hitter:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 39: Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Cleveland Indians
http://[h3]Could Stewart lose his job?[/h3]
8:49AM ET
[h5]Ian Stewart | Rockies [/h5]
It has been a frustrating spring for Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart, who suffered a sprained right knee in the first inning of the first Cactus League game and has not played since.
Stewart is scheduled to play in a B game Monday, but Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports Stewart may not get enough at-bats to be ready by Opening Day. Manager Jim Tracy insists there is no need to rush Stewart, a .256 hitter with 61 RBI last season.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=5176Ty Wigginton could make the bulk of the starts at third in Stewart's absence. Renck adds that Wigginton could win the job on a more permanent basis if Stewart's hitting doesn't improve. If Wigginton settles in at third base, that could mean more at-bats in right field for Seth Smith.
If Stewart goes the disabled list, the Rockies will carry an extra position player such as Jordan Pacheco or Eric Young Jr.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Buehrle's future[/h3]
8:32AM ET
[h5]Mark Buehrle | White Sox [/h5]
Ask Mark Buehrle about his future, and the answer can differ about as often as the wind changes direction in Chicago.
The White Sox left-hander hinted in 2009 that he might not be willing to pitch beyond the 2011 season, when his current contract runs out. A few weeks ago, Buehrle changed course and said he wants to pitch beyond 2011 rather than retire.
Is the retirement option back on the table? In a radio interview Wednesday, Buehrle says he needs the right fit in order to continue playing. "I'm not going to just go out there and play for the money or play in a spot that I don't want to be, just to play for a couple years to get some more money," Buehrle told WSCR-AM 670.
Dan McNeil wrote in Sunday's Chicago Tribune that Buehrle has played himself into an enviable position.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Morgan's status in D.C.[/h3]
8:25AM ET
[h5]Nyjer Morgan | Nationals [/h5]
With less than three weeks to go before Opening Day, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo hints that the center field competition is a tight, three-horse race between Nyjer Morgan, Roger Bernadina and Rick Ankiel.
Morgan has fallen back to the pack by hitting a mere .172 in Grapefruit League play, but Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post reports it is unlikely the Nats will release the veteran in a cost-cutting move, similar to what they did with Elijah Dukes last March.
Bernadina and Ankiel also are in the race for the left field job. As of Saturday, Mike Morse appeared to be winning that competition, according to skipper Jim Riggleman.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Setback for Santana?[/h3]
7:59AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
New York Mets left-hander Johan Santana spent part of his 32nd birthday Sunday disputing a report in the Bergen Record that his 2011 season is in jeopardy.
Santana told Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com that he is experiencing "regular soreness," but says he is steadily recovering from September 14 surgery to repair a torn anterior capsule in his left shoulder.
Even if the report is overstated, Andy Martino of the New York Daily News reminds us that one fact remains -- neither Santana nor the Mets have a clear timetable as to when the pitcher will return.
The weekend rumors should have no immediate impact on manager Terry Collins, who is formulating his Opening Day roster with Santana out of the picture.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]-backs first base battle[/h3]
7:37AM ET
[h5]Arizona Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Diamondbacks' competition at first base remains a three-horse field, even if Juan Miranda has done little to dissuade his status as the morning line favorite.
Miranda was perceived as the favorite over Brandon Allen before the Snakes expanded the competition with the signing of Russell Branyan last month. With three weeks until Opening Day, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic says GM Kevin Towers gave no indication that Miranda has fallen behind the others, calling his defense "very, very good."
Miranda is hitting just .241 but has solid plate discipline with eight walks, while Branyan has been tearing the cover off the ball, including his third homer among three hits Saturday to raise his spring average to .467.
Manager Kirk Gibson has stressed the importance of defense, which would play into Miranda's chances.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported Sunday that the D-backs are considering using Branyan as a late inning bat off the bench.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Duke's injury[/h3]
7:27AM ET
[h5]Zach Duke | Diamondbacks [/h5]
The Diamondbacks' crowded rotation race opened up slightly over the weekend with word that left-hander Zach Duke is likely to miss two months with two fractured bones in his pitching hand.
Duke ($4.25 million) and Armando Galarraga ($2.3 million) were penciled in as fourth and fifth starters, due in part to the D-backs' financial commitment. General manager Kevin Towers said Sunday that Duke's job will be filled internally.
Right-hander Aaron Heilman is being a chance to compete for a rotation spot, but at this point, he appears to be behind Barry Enright and Galarraga. Enright, who faded down the stretch in 2010, has looked good this month (2.00 ERA, 1 walk in 9 IP).
Even with his salary, Duke may not be assured of a rotation spot when he returns.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]All is quiet on Pujols front[/h3]
6:55AM ET
[h5]Albert Pujols | Cardinals [/h5]
The St. Louis Cardinals have have a tumultuous offseason, but it appears the media scrutiny around the situation with Albert Pujols has quieted down, perhaps partially due to the news that Adam Wainwright would miss the entire season with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery earlier this month.
Team Pujols put a deadline on contract talks, and that deadline came and went once Pujols reported for spring training. So far, there are no indications that the superstar will back off and negotiate during the season.
We'll likely have to discuss a lot of rumors of other clubs, including the Chicago Cubs, planning their 2011-12 winters around making a play for Pujols via free agency. But we'll also keep in mind that a trade is not 100 percent out of the question, especially if the Cardinals fall out of the race early this summer, despite Pujols' 10-5 rights to veto a trade and his claim that he'll invoke those rights.
The Minnesota Twins have taken plenty of flak for the mass exodus from their bullpen and their many unproven, younger relievers. But the Twins have a much bigger problem on their hands for 2011, one that could threaten their two-year reign as AL Central champs: a severely diminished defense.
The Twins finished sixth in team ultimate zone rating last season. Developed by Mitchel Lichtman and tracked by FanGraphs, UZR is a stat that measures the number of runs a player saves compared to the average player at his position. It's more reliable on a three-year basis, though, and at times subject to small-sample-size flukes, such as Jason Repko's team-leading performance in just 58 games played.
Random fluctuations aside, the Twins' biggest defensive downgrade this season comes at shortstop, where Alexi Casilla takes over for J.J. Hardy. Per UZR, we see that Hardy ranked among the Twins' best defenders last season. He earned a UZR of 8.1 in 2010, saving just more than eight runs last year as compared to an average defensive shortstop. And this wasn't a one-year fluke. For his career, Hardy has a UZR of 11.0 per 150 games played. Using the sabermetric convention of 10 runs saved equaling one win gained in the standings, that means Hardy is worth one full win more than an average shortstop each year with his glove alone.
Meanwhile, Casilla is a big unknown as a major league shortstop, having played just 41 games at the position in four-plus years as a mostly part-time player in Minnesota. Without a meaningful sample of games, it's tough to make an accurate prediction of Casilla's expected defensive value at short. The scouting reports haven't been glowing, though, and finding a near-elite defensive shortstop like Hardy is tough to do. And it's not as if Casilla will be much of an offensive contributor, as his career line is just .249/.306/.395 in more than 1,000 plate appearances.
New Twins second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes with a better defensive reputation than Casilla's. But he, too, replaces a player coming off a strong defensive season for the Twins' 2010 division-winning squad. Orlando Hudson saved nearly 10 runs more than an average second baseman last year for Minnesota in just 126 games -- down from 2008 and 2009 levels but consistent with longer-term trends and thus likely a pretty accurate reading of his true defensive value to the club. The loss of slick-fielding (though terrible-hitting) utility infielder Nick Punto compounds the issue.
If the Twins' defense was stellar everywhere else, you might not worry that much about their middle-infield uncertainty. But Minnesota's corner-outfield defense ranks among the very worst in baseball. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer cost the team about three wins in their combined time in left and right fields last season, compared to the average player at those positions. That's consistent with those players' career track records, which show butcherish tendencies in the field.
Cuddyer was a far worse defender (and a far inferior hitter) than Justin Morneau when he took over at first base for the concussed slugger this past summer. Morneau has started seeing game action in spring training as he tries to make it back after missing half of last season due to complications stemming from the concussion. If he comes back fully healthy in April, or even May, the Twins could bank a two-way upgrade, with one of Young, Kubel or Cuddyer relegated to DH or the bench when Morneau plays. But Morneau's health remains a major question mark for the Twins with less than three weeks until Opening Day.
We're still learning about the connection between pitching and defense and exactly how much catching the ball means to a team's run prevention. Although stats such as UZR and defensive runs saved above average do a pretty good job of quantifying defensive impact, one factor which can get lost in the calculus is something we can call "cascading."
Here's an example of how cascading can play out: bases loaded, one out, pitcher induces a grounder up the middle. A good shortstop fields the ball, tosses to second for one, on to first, inning-ending double play, crisis averted. A lesser shortstop lets the ball go through. But it's not just the two runs that score that hurt the team on the field; it's also the added strain it places on the pitching staff. The pitcher on the mound still needs two more outs to escape this high-stress situation. If he can't get out of the jam, the manager will have to make a call to the bullpen earlier than he'd like. Now you're getting your lesser middle relievers into the game instead of your better late-inning guys, meaning you're liable to give up more runs. You're also forcing the bullpen to generally work harder, raising the risk that your relievers could wear down as the season goes on, if your defense continues to struggle. The end result can be more runs allowed, more fatigue for your pitchers and even a greater risk of injuries.
In the Twins' case, more grounders could shoot through holes with Hardy and Hudson gone, and line drives and deep flies could land in the gaps, given the team's weak corner-outfield defense. This is important because Twins have a pitch-to-contact staff that finished 10th in the AL in strikeouts in 2010. Minnesota's pitchers need a good defense to thrive. So whether you're a ground-ball-oriented pitcher like Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing, or an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey, you're vulnerable to the team's defensive problems.
Losing four established relief pitchers from last year's squad could dent the Twins' chances, although the return of Joe Nathan and a full season of Matt Capps should help. The White Sox should be better than they were last season, although they still have question marks at multiple positions. But if Minnesota fails to three-peat in 2011, that leaky defense could be the biggest reason.
http://[h3][/h3][h3]Castillo on thin ice?[/h3]
10:51AM ET
[h5]Luis Castillo | Mets [/h5]
We have been hearing for weeks that Luis Castillo was on the ropes with the New York Mets willing to eat the $6 million left on the second baseman's contract.
Adam Rubin of ESPNewYork.com reported Monday night that manager Terry Collins is far from a Castillo supporter and would like to see the infielder jettisoned in order to "limit the drama" around the team. Rubin adds that there is a chance Castillo could end up on the roster because "Collins has bosses too."
The Mets have staged an open competition at second base that includes Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus. None of the candidates have played well enough to claim the job.
Castillo's departure is even more likely if Collins chooses Luis Hernandez as his starter, as reported Tuesday by Mike Puma of the New York Post.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Amaro: payroll is maxed out[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Philadelphia Phillies [/h5]
The Philadelphia Phillies have kept a calm and relatively quiet public face when it comes to Chase Utley, who has yet to appear in a spring game due to patellar tendinitis in his knee.
The club obviously is worrying that it's more than tendinitis, and if it is, they'll have to scramble the infield. Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez are capable at second base, with Valdez the likely candidate to take over for the short term.
There has been ample speculation that the Phillies would look outside the organization, but GM Ruben Amaro insisted once again that isn't happening. In a Monday interview with MLB Network Radio, Amaro said the payroll is maxed out and the team could not take on additional salary in any deal.
"I don't know how many times I can say that publicly -- I have no money to play with," Amaro told host Jim Duquette. "Our payroll is going to be over $160 million or so, and I'm tapped out, my friend. Maxed out."
The name of Michael Young has popped up often, prompting Amaro's disclaimer. Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News admits there are some major financial obstacles, but adds a deal for Young is not farfetched.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Collins wants Hernandez at 2B[/h3]
10:25AM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
New York Mets manager Terry Collins may have settled on Luis Hernandez as his starting second baseman, if only be default.
Mike Puma of the New York Post reports Tuesday that Hernandez will get the job, contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for the infielder.
The 26-year-old Hernandez would a surprise choice since he played in only 17 games for the Mets last year before breaking a toe in September. The Mets have staged an open competition at second base that includes Hernandez, Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus. None of the candidates have had an outstanding spring.
Puma warns that Collins' plan to install Hernandez could hit a snag if the front office insists upon keeping Emaus on the roster.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Second base platoon at Wrigley?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We mentioned Monday in our weekly look at position battles that Blake DeWitt was by no means a lock at second base for the Chicago Cubs.
While DeWitt was billed as the Cubs' second baseman of the future following his acquisition from the Dodgers last summer, manager Mike Quade appears content with a platoon of DeWitt and Jeff Baker, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
DeWitt has done little to help his case, hitting in the .200 range this spring and struggling defensively. Baker has hit .393 this spring and is expected to bat leadoff against southpaw starters.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Maine in the Rockies mix[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]John Maine | Rockies [/h5]
The race for fifth starter in Colorado may not be decided until the final week of camp, and John Maine made it a tighter competition with three encouraging innings Monday in a B game against the Angels.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes that Esmil Rogers remains the slight favorite and homegrown talent Greg Reynolds remains in the mix.
The Rockies are not looking to rush Maine, a former 15-game winner coming off shoulder surgery. Maine could end up playing a prominent role for the Rockies at some point, according to ESPN Insider's weekly look at position battles.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Moskos could be midseason callup[/h3]
9:26AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
Daniel Moskos was among the players sent to minor league camp prospect, but the top prospect could be in the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen sometime this year, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review.
The 24-year-old Moskos spent most of last season at Double-A Altoona, where he went 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA. The Pirates have a shortage of left-handed relievers, so Moskos has a realistic chance of earning a promotion if he can avoid a problem of falling behind in the count.
At this point, Joe Beimel and Brian Burres are the only southpaw relievers likely to make the Opening Day roster.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A-Gone agent to resume talks[/h3]
8:52AM ET
[h5]Adrian Gonzalez | Red Sox [/h5]
After the Boston Red Sox landed Adrian Gonzalez in a blockbuster deal in December, the two sides were unable to complete a long-term contract with the star first baseman.
Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reports that A-Gon's agent, John Boggs, is due to visit the team's camp next week, at which point negotiations on a contract could resume.
The speculation for months had the Red Sox waiting until after Opening Day to formally announce a deal in order to avoid a luxury tax hit. Boggs tells Morosi that no deal is imminent, adding that any agreement is likely after Opening Day than before it.
Gonzalez underwent shoulder surgery over the winter and did not make his Grapefruit League debut until last weekend. The Red Sox could be waiting to see if Gonzalez is completely healthy before making a huge financial commitment.
If Gonzalez were to let his contract expire, he would join a blockbuster crop of free agent first baseman that, for now, includes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Bailey injury[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
Players normally don't make the trip to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews just to say hello. A's closer http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30096Andrew Bailey may be hoping against hope Tuesday when he visits the renowned orthopedic surgeon for an exam on his elbow and forearm.
Bailey, who has a history of elbow trouble, left Monday's outing against the Indians after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. Joe Stiglich of the Mercury News writes that this is a potentially major blow to the Athletics, who have every reason to think they will compete for the AL West crown this season.
The A's may be better equipped to withstand losing their closer than other teams because of the acquisition of http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4731Brian Fuentes. But bullpen depth was a main reason for the club?s optimism, so a serious injury to Bailey would have a major impact.
If Fuentes takes over as closer, that would likely elevate Craig Breslow to the role of lefty set-up man. It also could have GM Billy Beane shopping for relief help.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Warthen still backing Perez[/h3]
7:51AM ET
[h5]Oliver Perez | Mets [/h5]
Oliver Perez is officially out of consideration for the Mets rotation plans and seems to have few supporters left in the organization. One of them is pitching coach Dan Warthen.
Andy Martino of the Daily News writes that several prominent voices in the organization wanted Perez released already, but Warthen has argued that Perez was worth looking at in the bullpen.
Perez, who will earn a hefty $12 million this season, will stick around as long as he can throw strikes. He threw five of seven pitches for strikes in his first bullpen outing and will get another chance Tuesday against the Nationals.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Banuelos headed to minors[/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
Manny Banuelos has been one of the most talked-about players in New York Yankees camp this spring, and the 20-year-old gained some national exposure Monday night when he started against the Red Sox on ESPN2.
Banuelos got the start due to an oblique injury to Sergio Mitre, and pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings. He allowed two hits and walked three, but did work out of bases-loaded jam in the second. Despite the hype, GM Brian Cashman said Banuelos will not break camp with the Yankees.
"Our plan is to finish off his development program, and at some point, if he stays healthy and is very successful, he can push his way into the mix for us in New York," Cashman said.
Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com writes that Banuelos could land in the Bronx this season if the southpaw dominates in Double-A.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pineda in the lead?[/h3]
7:16AM ET
[h5]Luke French | Mariners [/h5]
UPDATE: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reports Tuesday that, in the wake of Robertson's injury, the job is Pineda's to lose. GM Jack Zduriencik wouldn't confirm Pineda's status, but said service-time issues will not stand in the way of any young player making the team if they clearly earn their spot.
--
Left-hander Luke French may be in the lead for the No. 5 spot in the rotation for the Seattle Mariners, considering rookie Michael Pineda's service time and seasoning scenarios, and Nate Robertson's health. The great Ryan Divish of The News Tribune tweets Monday that Robertson will have elbow surgery to remove loose bodies, a procedure that certainly sets him back.
The veteran southpaw was struggling this spring, and French has allowed just one earned run in eight frames, despite yielding 12 hits. He's walked hust one and struck out eight. Right-hander David Pauley is still in the mix, as well, according to Divish.
Pineda, another candidate for the gig, has been hot and cold, but ESPN Insider's Keith Law, who witnessed Pineda's most recent outing, says the right-hander may not be quite ready just yet.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Pineda needs more seasoning
"Pineda showed a big fastball Monday, touching 96 miles per hour a few times and working mostly at 93-95 in his two innings. The pitch probably will play up because the ball appears quite late to hitters even though it's not a classic delivery. Pineda struggled with command and especially with his breaking ball on Monday and threw just one changeup, a pin-straight offering at 88 that would grade out at a 35 if we wanted to go off that one sample. The slider was just very inconsistent; Pineda threw several with good tilt but didn't locate them and got away with a few spinners, including one brutal hanger at 81 that a big league hitter could have jerked out of most parks. He has a few more weeks to make his case to be in the Opening Day rotation, but the two innings he threw on Monday did not show him to be ready for the majors; he'll need more consistency on the slider and to show a much better third pitch."
http://[h3]Borbon running with CF job?[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Julio Borbon | Rangers [/h5]
The Texas Rangers' plans in the outfield include Nelson Cruz in left and Josh Hamilton in right field, a move designed to take some pressure off the American League MVP and keep him healthier, while inserting some athleticism into the lineup. Borbon is 1-for-2 so far this spring.
Not 1-for-2 at the plate, but he is batting .500 in the mind of manager Ron Washington, writes ESPNDallas.com's Tim McMahon. He's hitting, but he's had some problems defensively. "Gotta catch those balls, that's for sure," Washington said.
Borbon, however, says the position of the sun at this time of year in Arizona -- and in that ballpark -- are the culprit, and will not be an issue during the regular season.
He's also hitting .387 with four stolen bases, three extra-base hits and one strikeout in 12 games. It seems Borbon is doing plenty to consider him the surefire starter going forward.
The Minnesota Twins have taken plenty of flak for the mass exodus from their bullpen and their many unproven, younger relievers. But the Twins have a much bigger problem on their hands for 2011, one that could threaten their two-year reign as AL Central champs: a severely diminished defense.
The Twins finished sixth in team ultimate zone rating last season. Developed by Mitchel Lichtman and tracked by FanGraphs, UZR is a stat that measures the number of runs a player saves compared to the average player at his position. It's more reliable on a three-year basis, though, and at times subject to small-sample-size flukes, such as Jason Repko's team-leading performance in just 58 games played.
Random fluctuations aside, the Twins' biggest defensive downgrade this season comes at shortstop, where Alexi Casilla takes over for J.J. Hardy. Per UZR, we see that Hardy ranked among the Twins' best defenders last season. He earned a UZR of 8.1 in 2010, saving just more than eight runs last year as compared to an average defensive shortstop. And this wasn't a one-year fluke. For his career, Hardy has a UZR of 11.0 per 150 games played. Using the sabermetric convention of 10 runs saved equaling one win gained in the standings, that means Hardy is worth one full win more than an average shortstop each year with his glove alone.
Meanwhile, Casilla is a big unknown as a major league shortstop, having played just 41 games at the position in four-plus years as a mostly part-time player in Minnesota. Without a meaningful sample of games, it's tough to make an accurate prediction of Casilla's expected defensive value at short. The scouting reports haven't been glowing, though, and finding a near-elite defensive shortstop like Hardy is tough to do. And it's not as if Casilla will be much of an offensive contributor, as his career line is just .249/.306/.395 in more than 1,000 plate appearances.
New Twins second baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes with a better defensive reputation than Casilla's. But he, too, replaces a player coming off a strong defensive season for the Twins' 2010 division-winning squad. Orlando Hudson saved nearly 10 runs more than an average second baseman last year for Minnesota in just 126 games -- down from 2008 and 2009 levels but consistent with longer-term trends and thus likely a pretty accurate reading of his true defensive value to the club. The loss of slick-fielding (though terrible-hitting) utility infielder Nick Punto compounds the issue.
If the Twins' defense was stellar everywhere else, you might not worry that much about their middle-infield uncertainty. But Minnesota's corner-outfield defense ranks among the very worst in baseball. Delmon Young, Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer cost the team about three wins in their combined time in left and right fields last season, compared to the average player at those positions. That's consistent with those players' career track records, which show butcherish tendencies in the field.
Cuddyer was a far worse defender (and a far inferior hitter) than Justin Morneau when he took over at first base for the concussed slugger this past summer. Morneau has started seeing game action in spring training as he tries to make it back after missing half of last season due to complications stemming from the concussion. If he comes back fully healthy in April, or even May, the Twins could bank a two-way upgrade, with one of Young, Kubel or Cuddyer relegated to DH or the bench when Morneau plays. But Morneau's health remains a major question mark for the Twins with less than three weeks until Opening Day.
We're still learning about the connection between pitching and defense and exactly how much catching the ball means to a team's run prevention. Although stats such as UZR and defensive runs saved above average do a pretty good job of quantifying defensive impact, one factor which can get lost in the calculus is something we can call "cascading."
Here's an example of how cascading can play out: bases loaded, one out, pitcher induces a grounder up the middle. A good shortstop fields the ball, tosses to second for one, on to first, inning-ending double play, crisis averted. A lesser shortstop lets the ball go through. But it's not just the two runs that score that hurt the team on the field; it's also the added strain it places on the pitching staff. The pitcher on the mound still needs two more outs to escape this high-stress situation. If he can't get out of the jam, the manager will have to make a call to the bullpen earlier than he'd like. Now you're getting your lesser middle relievers into the game instead of your better late-inning guys, meaning you're liable to give up more runs. You're also forcing the bullpen to generally work harder, raising the risk that your relievers could wear down as the season goes on, if your defense continues to struggle. The end result can be more runs allowed, more fatigue for your pitchers and even a greater risk of injuries.
In the Twins' case, more grounders could shoot through holes with Hardy and Hudson gone, and line drives and deep flies could land in the gaps, given the team's weak corner-outfield defense. This is important because Twins have a pitch-to-contact staff that finished 10th in the AL in strikeouts in 2010. Minnesota's pitchers need a good defense to thrive. So whether you're a ground-ball-oriented pitcher like Francisco Liriano, Carl Pavano, Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing, or an extreme fly-ball pitcher like Scott Baker or Kevin Slowey, you're vulnerable to the team's defensive problems.
Losing four established relief pitchers from last year's squad could dent the Twins' chances, although the return of Joe Nathan and a full season of Matt Capps should help. The White Sox should be better than they were last season, although they still have question marks at multiple positions. But if Minnesota fails to three-peat in 2011, that leaky defense could be the biggest reason.
http://[h3][/h3][h3]Castillo on thin ice?[/h3]
10:51AM ET
[h5]Luis Castillo | Mets [/h5]
We have been hearing for weeks that Luis Castillo was on the ropes with the New York Mets willing to eat the $6 million left on the second baseman's contract.
Adam Rubin of ESPNewYork.com reported Monday night that manager Terry Collins is far from a Castillo supporter and would like to see the infielder jettisoned in order to "limit the drama" around the team. Rubin adds that there is a chance Castillo could end up on the roster because "Collins has bosses too."
The Mets have staged an open competition at second base that includes Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus. None of the candidates have played well enough to claim the job.
Castillo's departure is even more likely if Collins chooses Luis Hernandez as his starter, as reported Tuesday by Mike Puma of the New York Post.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Amaro: payroll is maxed out[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Philadelphia Phillies [/h5]
The Philadelphia Phillies have kept a calm and relatively quiet public face when it comes to Chase Utley, who has yet to appear in a spring game due to patellar tendinitis in his knee.
The club obviously is worrying that it's more than tendinitis, and if it is, they'll have to scramble the infield. Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez are capable at second base, with Valdez the likely candidate to take over for the short term.
There has been ample speculation that the Phillies would look outside the organization, but GM Ruben Amaro insisted once again that isn't happening. In a Monday interview with MLB Network Radio, Amaro said the payroll is maxed out and the team could not take on additional salary in any deal.
"I don't know how many times I can say that publicly -- I have no money to play with," Amaro told host Jim Duquette. "Our payroll is going to be over $160 million or so, and I'm tapped out, my friend. Maxed out."
The name of Michael Young has popped up often, prompting Amaro's disclaimer. Paul Hagen of the Philadelphia Daily News admits there are some major financial obstacles, but adds a deal for Young is not farfetched.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Collins wants Hernandez at 2B[/h3]
10:25AM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
New York Mets manager Terry Collins may have settled on Luis Hernandez as his starting second baseman, if only be default.
Mike Puma of the New York Post reports Tuesday that Hernandez will get the job, contingent upon Collins convincing the front office to find roster space for the infielder.
The 26-year-old Hernandez would a surprise choice since he played in only 17 games for the Mets last year before breaking a toe in September. The Mets have staged an open competition at second base that includes Hernandez, Luis Castillo, Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner and Rule 5 draft pick Brad Emaus. None of the candidates have had an outstanding spring.
Puma warns that Collins' plan to install Hernandez could hit a snag if the front office insists upon keeping Emaus on the roster.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Second base platoon at Wrigley?[/h3]
10:00AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
We mentioned Monday in our weekly look at position battles that Blake DeWitt was by no means a lock at second base for the Chicago Cubs.
While DeWitt was billed as the Cubs' second baseman of the future following his acquisition from the Dodgers last summer, manager Mike Quade appears content with a platoon of DeWitt and Jeff Baker, reports Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune.
DeWitt has done little to help his case, hitting in the .200 range this spring and struggling defensively. Baker has hit .393 this spring and is expected to bat leadoff against southpaw starters.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Maine in the Rockies mix[/h3]
9:45AM ET
[h5]John Maine | Rockies [/h5]
The race for fifth starter in Colorado may not be decided until the final week of camp, and John Maine made it a tighter competition with three encouraging innings Monday in a B game against the Angels.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes that Esmil Rogers remains the slight favorite and homegrown talent Greg Reynolds remains in the mix.
The Rockies are not looking to rush Maine, a former 15-game winner coming off shoulder surgery. Maine could end up playing a prominent role for the Rockies at some point, according to ESPN Insider's weekly look at position battles.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Moskos could be midseason callup[/h3]
9:26AM ET
[h5]Pittsburgh Pirates [/h5]
Daniel Moskos was among the players sent to minor league camp prospect, but the top prospect could be in the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen sometime this year, reports Rob Biertempfel of the Tribune Review.
The 24-year-old Moskos spent most of last season at Double-A Altoona, where he went 3-1 with a 1.52 ERA. The Pirates have a shortage of left-handed relievers, so Moskos has a realistic chance of earning a promotion if he can avoid a problem of falling behind in the count.
At this point, Joe Beimel and Brian Burres are the only southpaw relievers likely to make the Opening Day roster.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]A-Gone agent to resume talks[/h3]
8:52AM ET
[h5]Adrian Gonzalez | Red Sox [/h5]
After the Boston Red Sox landed Adrian Gonzalez in a blockbuster deal in December, the two sides were unable to complete a long-term contract with the star first baseman.
Jon Morosi of FoxSports.com reports that A-Gon's agent, John Boggs, is due to visit the team's camp next week, at which point negotiations on a contract could resume.
The speculation for months had the Red Sox waiting until after Opening Day to formally announce a deal in order to avoid a luxury tax hit. Boggs tells Morosi that no deal is imminent, adding that any agreement is likely after Opening Day than before it.
Gonzalez underwent shoulder surgery over the winter and did not make his Grapefruit League debut until last weekend. The Red Sox could be waiting to see if Gonzalez is completely healthy before making a huge financial commitment.
If Gonzalez were to let his contract expire, he would join a blockbuster crop of free agent first baseman that, for now, includes Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Impact of Bailey injury[/h3]
8:24AM ET
[h5]Andrew Bailey | Athletics [/h5]
Players normally don't make the trip to Alabama to see Dr. James Andrews just to say hello. A's closer http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=30096Andrew Bailey may be hoping against hope Tuesday when he visits the renowned orthopedic surgeon for an exam on his elbow and forearm.
Bailey, who has a history of elbow trouble, left Monday's outing against the Indians after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. Joe Stiglich of the Mercury News writes that this is a potentially major blow to the Athletics, who have every reason to think they will compete for the AL West crown this season.
The A's may be better equipped to withstand losing their closer than other teams because of the acquisition of http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=4731Brian Fuentes. But bullpen depth was a main reason for the club?s optimism, so a serious injury to Bailey would have a major impact.
If Fuentes takes over as closer, that would likely elevate Craig Breslow to the role of lefty set-up man. It also could have GM Billy Beane shopping for relief help.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Warthen still backing Perez[/h3]
7:51AM ET
[h5]Oliver Perez | Mets [/h5]
Oliver Perez is officially out of consideration for the Mets rotation plans and seems to have few supporters left in the organization. One of them is pitching coach Dan Warthen.
Andy Martino of the Daily News writes that several prominent voices in the organization wanted Perez released already, but Warthen has argued that Perez was worth looking at in the bullpen.
Perez, who will earn a hefty $12 million this season, will stick around as long as he can throw strikes. He threw five of seven pitches for strikes in his first bullpen outing and will get another chance Tuesday against the Nationals.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Banuelos headed to minors[/h3]
7:38AM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
Manny Banuelos has been one of the most talked-about players in New York Yankees camp this spring, and the 20-year-old gained some national exposure Monday night when he started against the Red Sox on ESPN2.
Banuelos got the start due to an oblique injury to Sergio Mitre, and pitched 2 2/3 scoreless innings. He allowed two hits and walked three, but did work out of bases-loaded jam in the second. Despite the hype, GM Brian Cashman said Banuelos will not break camp with the Yankees.
"Our plan is to finish off his development program, and at some point, if he stays healthy and is very successful, he can push his way into the mix for us in New York," Cashman said.
Andrew Marchand of ESPNNewYork.com writes that Banuelos could land in the Bronx this season if the southpaw dominates in Double-A.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Pineda in the lead?[/h3]
7:16AM ET
[h5]Luke French | Mariners [/h5]
UPDATE: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times reports Tuesday that, in the wake of Robertson's injury, the job is Pineda's to lose. GM Jack Zduriencik wouldn't confirm Pineda's status, but said service-time issues will not stand in the way of any young player making the team if they clearly earn their spot.
--
Left-hander Luke French may be in the lead for the No. 5 spot in the rotation for the Seattle Mariners, considering rookie Michael Pineda's service time and seasoning scenarios, and Nate Robertson's health. The great Ryan Divish of The News Tribune tweets Monday that Robertson will have elbow surgery to remove loose bodies, a procedure that certainly sets him back.
The veteran southpaw was struggling this spring, and French has allowed just one earned run in eight frames, despite yielding 12 hits. He's walked hust one and struck out eight. Right-hander David Pauley is still in the mix, as well, according to Divish.
Pineda, another candidate for the gig, has been hot and cold, but ESPN Insider's Keith Law, who witnessed Pineda's most recent outing, says the right-hander may not be quite ready just yet.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Pineda needs more seasoning
"Pineda showed a big fastball Monday, touching 96 miles per hour a few times and working mostly at 93-95 in his two innings. The pitch probably will play up because the ball appears quite late to hitters even though it's not a classic delivery. Pineda struggled with command and especially with his breaking ball on Monday and threw just one changeup, a pin-straight offering at 88 that would grade out at a 35 if we wanted to go off that one sample. The slider was just very inconsistent; Pineda threw several with good tilt but didn't locate them and got away with a few spinners, including one brutal hanger at 81 that a big league hitter could have jerked out of most parks. He has a few more weeks to make his case to be in the Opening Day rotation, but the two innings he threw on Monday did not show him to be ready for the majors; he'll need more consistency on the slider and to show a much better third pitch."
http://[h3]Borbon running with CF job?[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Julio Borbon | Rangers [/h5]
The Texas Rangers' plans in the outfield include Nelson Cruz in left and Josh Hamilton in right field, a move designed to take some pressure off the American League MVP and keep him healthier, while inserting some athleticism into the lineup. Borbon is 1-for-2 so far this spring.
Not 1-for-2 at the plate, but he is batting .500 in the mind of manager Ron Washington, writes ESPNDallas.com's Tim McMahon. He's hitting, but he's had some problems defensively. "Gotta catch those balls, that's for sure," Washington said.
Borbon, however, says the position of the sun at this time of year in Arizona -- and in that ballpark -- are the culprit, and will not be an issue during the regular season.
He's also hitting .387 with four stolen bases, three extra-base hits and one strikeout in 12 games. It seems Borbon is doing plenty to consider him the surefire starter going forward.
"The reality is that this time of year, the prices for upper-tier relievers -- and even the second- and third-tier relievers -- might be 20 or 30 percent higher than late July sticker price. They could call the Padres about Heath Bell, who is very likely to be traded if the Padres drift out of contention this summer. But generally speaking, GMs really can't stand the thought of giving up talent for a stop-gap, and history tells us that relievers are just as likely to struggle as they are to pitch as well as expected."
"The reality is that this time of year, the prices for upper-tier relievers -- and even the second- and third-tier relievers -- might be 20 or 30 percent higher than late July sticker price. They could call the Padres about Heath Bell, who is very likely to be traded if the Padres drift out of contention this summer. But generally speaking, GMs really can't stand the thought of giving up talent for a stop-gap, and history tells us that relievers are just as likely to struggle as they are to pitch as well as expected."
This could be something that sticks with him, and affects him this year. I wouldn't count it out at all. The Braves gotta be trying to get some counseling or something to help him thru it.Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland
If I was in Brian McCann's position, I would probably strongly consider never playing baseball again.
This could be something that sticks with him, and affects him this year. I wouldn't count it out at all. The Braves gotta be trying to get some counseling or something to help him thru it.Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland
If I was in Brian McCann's position, I would probably strongly consider never playing baseball again.
Pun intended?Originally Posted by CP1708
This could be something that sticks with him, and affects him this year. I wouldn't count it out at all. The Braves gotta be trying to get some counseling or something to help him thru it.Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland
If I was in Brian McCann's position, I would probably strongly consider never playing baseball again.
I gotta kick outta Salazar sayin he's just lookin to get back to work though.Those baseball guys don't mess around, it's their job and they love doin it. I give the guy credit for that.