2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Brewers season is already finished. It was gonna be tough enough without Prince, now without Braun for 50, theyll be lucky if they win 70 games.
 
Brewers season is already finished. It was gonna be tough enough without Prince, now without Braun for 50, theyll be lucky if they win 70 games.
 
Originally Posted by 23ska909red02

- 29 championships
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Please don't give that team 2 more additional championships than they already have.
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Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN

Hey Proshares I've been meaning to thank you for continuously posting all the info you do. This is one of the few threads that I even read here anymore.
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Especially the Keith Law ESPN insider

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Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN

Hey Proshares I've been meaning to thank you for continuously posting all the info you do. This is one of the few threads that I even read here anymore.
Click to expand...


Especially the Keith Law ESPN insider

pimp.gif
 
Ramirez helps but Brewers need more.

Spoiler [+]
The Milwaukee Brewers were almost certainly never going to re-sign Prince Fielder because they were so unlikely to be the high bidders on a player who seemed all along to be headed to the highest bidder. In that light, signing Aramis Ramirez to a reported three-year deal, even a somewhat overpriced one, is a reasonable alternative. They'll get back a good chunk of the offense they've lost without Fielder while limiting their downside with a short deal. (I didn't say eliminating their downside, though; they now have Ramirez under contract for his age 34-36 seasons, and he's the type of "old man's skills" player who ages poorly.) But if this is their big move of the offseason, is it really enough to make them contenders in 2012 against the World Series champs and a Reds team that should bounce back after an off year?

Ramirez, who will reportedly get approximately $35 million in the deal, is a slow power hitter with a decent idea of the strike zone who has produced lots of contact albeit with few walks; he's been comfortably above-average on offense in seven of the past eight years, producing high averages and slugging at least .510 in those seasons. He's a pull hitter who's vulnerable to good velocity, something that will probably get worse over the next three years but isn't a serious problem yet, while his defense has fallen off a cliff to the point where he should probably trade in his glove.

If the Brewers' intention is to play Ramirez at third base -- and rumors they might sign Carlos Pena, assuming they still have the cash to do so, would appear to confirm that -- then they are punting defense at that position, to the same extent that they are punting offense at shortstop with the recent signing of Alex Gonzalez. Right now, they're looking at below-average defense at all four corners, with minimal offense at first base (for the position), at shortstop and behind the plate, with a center fielder (Nyjer Morgan) who's a little bad luck on balls in play from hurting the team with his bat, as well. You can compete with a number of flawed players on your roster, but even in a weak division you're going to have a hard time contending like that. They'd be better off pushing Ramirez to first base and playing Taylor Green every day at third, which would at least produce a better defensive alignment without a major loss of offense, and would save them some cash to pay Francisco Rodriguez after their giant mistake in offering him arbitration.

If Milwaukee can dump Rodriguez the way the Atlanta Braves did with Rafael Soriano two years ago -- meaning the Brewers would have to pay a third or so of K-Rod's eventual salary -- they'd have some financial flexibility heading into what should be an all-in season, since three of their five starters are potential free agents after 2012. Right now, they're probably two wins worse off in the short term for replacing Fielder with Ramirez, with that gap growing over the life of the latter's contract, to say nothing of what they might lose if Ryan Braun is out for a third of the season due to a reported PED violation. And it's not clear they could do much better than Green or a Mat Gamel/Casey McGehee platoon if they went back out into the market. It's not a great position for a team coming off its first National League Championship Series appearance in 29 years.

Fielder really stands alone right now among potential impact bats on the market; Ramirez was just a poor man's alternative, but the next-best bats on the market now are guys like Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, starters on bad teams who might be best cast as platoon players on good clubs. This strikes me as a very good time for the Reds to get aggressive, if not in free agency then in trades; Yonder Alonso's value has to be rising as the market for bats thins out, and he's superfluous for Cincinnati with Joey Votto at first base.

10 questions from the winter meetings.

Spoiler [+]
Now that the winter meetings are behind us, here are 10 questions after what transpired in Dallas:

1. In keeping with the spirit of the holiday season, was Albert Pujols an impulse buy for the Los Angeles Angels?

We've all done this kind of thing -- you walk past some glowing, glittering thing as you shop for the holidays, and you see something that looks really great and seems, in that moment, like a really cool purchase. And after the wrapping comes off and the credit card bill arrives, you start thinking to yourself: "Maybe that wasn't such a good thing to get …"

The Angels didn't engage Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, until late on the night of Dec. 6, which means that in the month prior, Pujols could have easily come off the board without a single contact from the Angels, either by re-signing with the St. Louis Cardinals or by signing with the Miami Marlins on Dec. 5 or during the day Dec. 6. (Which could have happened if the Marlins had offered a no-trade clause.)

On top of that, Angels owner Arte Moreno has long established himself as one of baseball's most vocal labor hawks; this is not his usual course of action. In the aftermath of the Pujols signing, some rival executives and players who have heard a Moreno harangue about the spending of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox and the supposed money-lust of the players chuckled. "This is the most outspoken person in the sport about spending," said one GM, with a laugh. "And then he does this."

You could argue that if you are willing to invest $200 million-plus in any player, Pujols wasn't necessarily the best available hitter.

Look, he is one of the greatest players of all time, undoubtedly, but he turns 32 in a month, and there are unquestionably signs of regression, such as his year-by-year on-base percentage: .462 ('08), .443 ('09), .414 ('10), .369 ('11). Or his substantial decline in WAR during the same span: 9.6 ('08), 9.2 ('09), 7.1 ('10), 5.4 ('11).

And here's a subtle number that some evaluators took note of: Pujols' number of assists, which have grown steadily: 97 ('05), 110 ('06), 124 ('07), 135 ('08), 185 ('09), 157 ('10), 177 ('11). Those numbers are being read as a sign of his diminishing range at first base, as he relies more and more on the pitcher to cover first base rather than taking the ball to the bag himself.

Prince Fielder is not the defensive player Pujols is, but if you were going to give out a massive long-term deal, why not go after Fielder, who is four years younger? Pujols is the more marketable player now, a great name for billboards and television ads, but Fielder is just entering the prime of his career and he would probably have come for a package significantly smaller than $250 million.

The Pujols signing feels great right now, and it may well help the Angels in the immediate future, but it's possible that his contract will weigh on them for a five- or six-year period, like that extra serving of mashed potatoes at Christmas dinner.

2. How are the Texas Rangers going to respond to what the Angels did?

Texas is loaded with television money and deep-pocketed ownership and increased attendances, and the club is stacked with talent in the majors and the minors. The Rangers are actually good enough that even if they didn't make a single move the rest of the offseason, having already signed Joe Nathan for their bullpen, they might still go into the spring as favorites in the AL West.

But rival executives around baseball figure they will do something. They are widely expected to be among the biggest bidders for Yu Darvish this week. They have talked with the Oakland Athletics about Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey. They could load up on their bullpen by working out a deal with Ryan Madson.

And then there is Fielder. President Nolan Ryan has said repeatedly that he doesn't see the Rangers being a fit for the first baseman, but all around the majors, Texas is viewed as the most natural option for the slugger, who would fit them in so many ways. Like Pujols, Fielder might be better served signing with an AL team because as he gets older, he could transition into a designated hitter.

Think about the incredible lineup Texas might field with Fielder on board:

2B: Ian Kinsler
CF: Josh Hamilton
DH: Michael Young
1B: Prince Fielder
3B: Adrian Beltre
C: Mike Napoli
RF: Nelson Cruz
LF: David Murphy
SS: Elvis Andrus

Fielder might drive in 140-150 runs a year in that lineup, on that team, and he would likely really enjoy being part of that group, which is similar to the excellent culture that the Milwaukee Brewers developed.

But will the Rangers write the check, as they engage the Angels in an AL West version of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry? We'll see.

3. What's next for the Cardinals?

Smartly, St. Louis put a Plan B in place, as it prepared for the possible departure of Pujols. Lance Berkman moves to first base, and Allen Craig takes over in right field after he recovers from knee surgery.

The Cardinals should have good pitching in a division that isn't exactly overflowing with talent: The Brewers figure to be without Fielder and maybe Ryan Braun for the first third of the year, the Chicago Cubs are rebuilding, the Cincinnati Reds have struggled to find acceptable trades, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still trying to construct a pitching staff good enough to contend and the Houston Astros are starting from the ground up under new general manager Jeff Luhnow.

Pujols may be gone, but don't forget about the Cardinals, writes Hal McCoy.

4. Does Jimmy Rollins have options other than the Philadelphia Phillies?

The San Francisco Giants have indicated that they are finished with their big-ticket spending. Talks between the Brewers and Rollins broke off during the meetings. St. Louis agreed to terms with Rafael Furcal. It's hard to imagine the New York Mets investing in a 33-year-old shortstop. The Atlanta Braves don't appear to be interested.

It's looking more and more like the Phillies will retain Rollins, writes Jeff Janiczek. Casey Feeney asks: Is it time for Rollins and the Phillies to get hitched?

5. What will the Red Sox do?

The bottom line: If they are to stay under the luxury-tax threshold, they don't have much money to spend. So their bullpen reconstruction will have to come through trade -- and they have had extensive talks about Bailey built around a package that would include Josh Reddick, as Peter Gammons has written.

6. What are the A's doing?

The Angels' payroll may well hit $170 million this year and the Rangers are a power, so the Athletics -- who hope they will be able to open a new park in San Jose in three to five years -- determined internally that they probably won't be able to contend in 2012, '13 or '14.

The bottom line is that Trevor Cahill wasn't going to be around in 2015 anyway, and neither is Gonzalez or Bailey -- so Oakland is plowing under its young crop and planting the seeds for the future. It is unpalatable for A's fans, but that's the direction owner Lew Wolff feels he needs to go.

7. Can the Toronto Blue Jays compete with the AL East big boys next season?

They landed a closer, they've got a good lineup and they have some nice young starters.

But the Jays appear to need at least one more veteran starting pitcher, which explains why they've been among the teams talking about Gonzalez.

8. Where is rock bottom for the Mets?

Jose Reyes is gone, and David Wright is going to be gone within a couple of years, at the latest. But right now, it's hard to identify the core the Mets are building around. Who are the foundation pieces? That's still to be determined.

The Mets never wanted Reyes, writes Bob Klapisch.

I don't completely agree with that; I think there was an evolution of thought on Reyes that shifted because of his injuries in the second half of the season. It was as if those hamstring issues confirmed for the Mets that Reyes was a highly paid player who may well spend significant time on the disabled list in the next five seasons, and that scared them away from offering a contract that would have set him up to be the foundation of the franchise.

9. How much patience will the Marlins -- and their fans -- have?

They have a new ballpark, a new manager, new uniforms, new ballplayers. But the great fear within the industry is that Miami has built up expectations so high that a slow start would not play well within the market. Joe Capozzi wrote the other day that even with the makeover, the Marlins' success or failure is still predicated on two players -- Josh Johnson, their oft-injured ace, and Hanley Ramirez, who is coming off the worst season of his career.

So folks around the sport wonder how Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will react if the team struggles, or if the fans' response is initially lukewarm. In theory, the Marlins may have been only a no-trade clause away from signing Pujols -- and ownership could have easily made an exception in Pujols' case, saying that he is a once-in-a-lifetime player.

Their refusal to go that last step makes some in the game wonder whether the Marlins do have contingency plans in the back of their minds as they attempt this makeover.

10. What will Michael Cuddyer do?

The Minnesota Twins want him back, and the Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies want him. If one of the teams doesn't step out with a four-year offer, Cuddyer could be headed back to Minnesota, where he is regarded as the team's emotional core.

The winners of the winter meetings were the Angels and Marlins, writes Phil Rogers.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• History says Braun will have difficulty winning his appeal, writes Tom Haudricourt. His test results were insanely high, reports Teri Thompson, and this will be used in the defense.

Braun is not the first player to come under the scrutiny of the drug-testing program. He has hired a really prominent lawyer.

Braun has always been thought of as one of the good guys, writes Tyler Kepner. Braun was a hot topic at Lambeau Field.

Baseball's feel-good glow has dimmed, writes Larry Fine. Braun shocked his sport, writes Damien Cox. The Braun case shouldn't be a surprise, writes David Neal.

Braun's sparkling image is being put to the test, writes Chris Jenkins.

Baseball is alone in the doping battle, writes Dejan Kovacevic.

Ryan Braun has been great for baseball, and in a perfect baseball world, he wouldn't be in this situation. And if he is completely innocent, as he says, then all this is terrible.

But if Braun is guilty of wrongdoing, then in the big picture for Major League Baseball, a suspension of a major star would be another indication of how far the sport has come in its testing. A decade ago, players could do anything at any time without repercussions -- and a lot of players felt they had to take drugs just to keep up.

From Dejan's column:
  • And it goes to the top, with [Bud] Selig and the players' union recently ratifying a labor pact that includes the first blood tests for HGH in North American pro sports. Players have given urine samples for a decade, but HGH is hard to detect, so they'll now take random blood tests in spring training. The New York Times reported two weeks ago that, by testing roughly 1,200 players per year, MLB will be even more comprehensive than WADA, which tests just 3,425 of its tens of thousands of eligible athletes.
  • The always-outspoken WADA folks used to make a living trashing baseball, but here's what director general David Howman told the Times: "At last, we are in a position where we can say Major League Baseball is taking a leading role. This is something we are concerned about regarding our own testing."
  • Funny, no mention of Roger Goodell, Gary Bettman or David Stern.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information: In 2011, Braun and Fielder combined for 38.4 percent of Milwaukee's total home run output (71 of 185 total homers), the third-highest mark in baseball. Pujols and Berkman combined for 42 percent of St. Louis' homers (68 of 162), and Matt Kemp and Rod Barajas hit 47 percent of all homers (55 of 117) for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Ronnie Paulino will likely be non-tendered today, writes Andy Martino.

2. The Kansas City Royals are facing some tough decisions today.

3. All signs point to slow and steady for the Red Sox decision-makers, writes Michael Silverman. Boston might have to trust its young relievers, writes Brian MacPherson.

4. Felix Pie signed a minor league deal.

5. The Tampa Bay Rays are banking on the potential of Matt Moore, writes Roger Mooney. There is risk for both the Rays and Moore.

Fallout of Ryan Braun's failed test.

Spoiler [+]
Ryan Braun, who tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug and faces a 50-day suspension if the finding is upheld, sent a text to Tom Haudricourt, asserting his innocence. A positive test would be a severe blow, writes Michael Hunt. His positive test is tough to take, writes Troy Renck, and I'll echo some of what Renck has here: Braun is a really good guy and a player who has embraced his role as a leader in the sport.

Three thoughts:

1. Braun is the 2011 NL MVP and there is no precedent for that to be altered, even if he's suspended. The Baseball Writers Association of America has never stripped a winner of an award, including Alex Rodriguez, who has acknowledged using performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, when he won the AL MVP.

But that's a stance completely at odds with the writers' collective stance in the Hall of Fame balloting, in which voters have treated the history of Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, et al, as if it doesn't exist; they've stripped those players of the accomplishments of their entire careers -- and sometimes based on mere suspicion, as in the case of Jeff Bagwell.

Let's take Roger Clemens, for example. If he's not voted into the Hall of Fame, as expected, then on one hand, you would have a significant portion of the BBWAA taking a hard stance against his accomplishments because of suspected PED use -- and on the other hand, the same association would continue to recognize him as a seven-time Cy Young Award winner and a one-time MVP.

A "no" vote on the Hall of Fame question for Barry Bonds and Clemens is essentially meant to expunge the record -- so it's hard to understand why the BBWAA wouldn't take the next logical step of withdrawing its recognition of a player as an award winner. Through its participation in the Hall of Fame voting, the writers' association is effectively invalidating its own awards.

This is just one aspect of the slippery slope created by linking the "no" votes on the Hall of Fame question to proof or suspicion of PED use. (For the record, I've voted for McGwire every year he's been on the ballot, and I'll vote for Clemens and Bonds.)

2. As Braun fights the suspension, he has probably already lost a battle that goes on simultaneously: to clear his name of wrongdoing. For years, fans, media and other players have heard literally dozens of other athletes suspected of PED use proclaim their innocence, from Palmeiro to Marion Jones to Floyd Landis to others, in the face of overwhelming evidence -- and many have acknowledged later that they initially lied.

Even if Braun wins his appeal, the fact is that the positive test will hang on him in the court of public opinion.

3. It's evident from the texts and emails received on Saturday that players are much more vigilant about PED use than they used to be. Years ago, before testing was implemented and before players had a fuller understanding of what occurred during the steroid era, the response of a lot of players was indifference. Their feeling was that even if another player was a user and they didn't approve, they felt that it wasn't really something that had a practical impact on them individually.

Now, more than ever, a lot of players view users as a threat to their livelihood.

And while the report of Braun's testing positive could not have come at a worse time for baseball, which has been riding a wave of success the past three months, there is this: It is an initial sign (under appeal) that the system works and has integrity.

[h4]Ryan Braun[/h4]
Comparing Braun's last two seasons at the plate
[table][tr][th=""]
Stat
[/th][th=""]
2010
[/th][th=""]
2011
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
BA
[/td][td]
.304
[/td][td]
.332
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Slug Pct
[/td][td]
.501
[/td][td]
.597<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
HR
[/td][td]
25
[/td][td]
33
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
PA per HR
[/td][td]
27.4
[/td][td]
19.1
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>> 96-point increase, 5th-largest in MLB[/td][/tr][/table]

From ESPN Stats and Info:

• Braun would be the first MVP to be suspended for violating the MLB PED policy.

Some Braun career highlights:

• Won 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, 2011 NL MVP
• 161 HR in first five seasons; 10th most by a player in his first five seasons
• Four-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Signed five-year, $105 million extension (covering 2016 to 2020) in April 2011 (Braun is owed $36.5 million in base salary from 2012 to 2015, then $105 million from 2016 to 2020).

Next Level:

• Isolated Power measures a player's extra bases gained per at-bat. Braun's Isolated Power increased from .197 in 2010 to .265 in 2011. That was the fifth-largest jump of any player from 2010 to 2011.

Geoff Baker writes that if Braun is suspended, writers should demand a revote.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was introduced by the Los Angeles Angels and got the hearts of the fans racing, writes Bill Shaikin. Southern Cal is buzzing, writes Bill Plaschke.

Pujols wants to talk about only his new team, writes Bill Plunkett.

How ready was he to leave the St. Louis Cardinals? Well, think about it: He agreed to terms with the Angels without a single face-to-face visit with the L.A. brass, or to the Anaheim area, after a decade with the Cardinals. This speaks strongly to the unhappiness Pujols felt about the way the negotiations with St. Louis played out.

For Pujols, it came down to commitment. Here's the full-page ad that Pujols took out.

The signing is as sad as it is sensational, writes Tim Sullivan.

I'll have more on the Pujols decision in Monday's column.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics will continue to make trades, as they plow under their best assets in an effort to have the young talent blossom at about the same time the organization hopes to move into a new ballpark in San Jose in 2014. So in the days and weeks ahead, the Athletics will probably trade Andrew Bailey (the Boston Red Sox appear to be the front-runner) and Gio Gonzalez (the Texas Rangers are in a great position to strike if they are willing to absorb the cost -- a prospect such as pitcher Martin Perez).

Scott Ostler is down on the Oakland leadership.

2. C.J. Wilson was pretty open about the fact that he was disappointed with the Rangers' offer to him. The Rangers are regarded within the industry as the favorites to land Yu Darvish, given all the work of scout A.J. Preller on the pitcher.

3. Ian Kinsler is talking about a new contract with the Rangers.

4. At least four teams have had discussions with the Miami Marlins during this offseason about Hanley Ramirez trade possibilities, although there is zero indication that there has been traction gained in any of the talks. The Marlins possess a player who has demonstrated extraordinary talent in the past, and because of his awful 2011 showing and his rising salary -- he's owed $46 million over the next three years -- his market value couldn't be lower. They wouldn't just give him away. The Marlins' success next season depends on Josh Johnson and Ramirez, writes Joe Capozzi. Agree with him 100 percent.

5. The Philadelphia Phillies are the best fit for Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Ford. With the Milwaukee Brewers and Cardinals out of the running, Rollins is running out of leverage in his negotiations with Philadelphia -- although maybe he intended to go back all along, unless the San Francisco Giants got involved.

6. Neal Huntington hopes his portfolio will pay off.

7. The winter meetings for the Baltimore Orioles were quiet, generally. Looking forward to the visit to Orioles camp in the spring, because they recently added a pitcher with whom I share high school roots (Oliver Drake) and an infielder who went to the same college (Ryan Flaherty).

8. The New York Yankees are patiently waiting for the right deal, writes George King.

9. The Red Sox are prepping Daniel Bard to be a starter, writes Michael Vega. Bobby Valentine met with Red Sox faithful at Fenway Park.

10. The purse strings are getting tighter at Fenway Park, writes Nick Cafardo.

11. The moves made by the Marlins will allow them to compete with the big dogs of the NL East, some analysts believe.

12. The Marlins explained why they are not interested in Prince Fielder.

13. The Chicago Cubs are trying to tailor their roster to Wrigley, writes Paul Sullivan.

14. Octavio Dotel is about to pitch for his 13th team.

15. The Cincinnati Reds can learn from the Cardinals, writes John Fay.

Got this from John Garner, about Cape Cod League alumni:
  • The recent hiring of Bobby Valentine as 45th manager of the Boston Red Sox gives the Cape Cod Baseball League a record eight of its playing alumni currently managing in the major leagues.
  • Valentine, who hit .294 and led the CCBL in runs scored during the summer of 1967 for the Yarmouth Indians, joins new Chicago White Sox manager and 2002 CCBL Hall of Famer Robin Ventura (Hyannis 1987) and St. Louis Cardinals mentor Mike Matheny (Cotuit 1989), who've also been hired during the past offseason.
  • Other current major league managers who played on the Cape include CCBL Hall of Famers Buck Showalter (Hyannis '76) of the Baltimore Orioles and Eric Wedge (Y-D 1988) of the Seattle Mariners, Joe Girardi (Cotuit 1984) of the New York Yankees, Jim Tracy (Chatham 1976) of the Colorado Rockies and John Farrell (Hyannis 1982) of the Toronto Blue Jays, former pitching coach of the Red Sox.
 
Ramirez helps but Brewers need more.

Spoiler [+]
The Milwaukee Brewers were almost certainly never going to re-sign Prince Fielder because they were so unlikely to be the high bidders on a player who seemed all along to be headed to the highest bidder. In that light, signing Aramis Ramirez to a reported three-year deal, even a somewhat overpriced one, is a reasonable alternative. They'll get back a good chunk of the offense they've lost without Fielder while limiting their downside with a short deal. (I didn't say eliminating their downside, though; they now have Ramirez under contract for his age 34-36 seasons, and he's the type of "old man's skills" player who ages poorly.) But if this is their big move of the offseason, is it really enough to make them contenders in 2012 against the World Series champs and a Reds team that should bounce back after an off year?

Ramirez, who will reportedly get approximately $35 million in the deal, is a slow power hitter with a decent idea of the strike zone who has produced lots of contact albeit with few walks; he's been comfortably above-average on offense in seven of the past eight years, producing high averages and slugging at least .510 in those seasons. He's a pull hitter who's vulnerable to good velocity, something that will probably get worse over the next three years but isn't a serious problem yet, while his defense has fallen off a cliff to the point where he should probably trade in his glove.

If the Brewers' intention is to play Ramirez at third base -- and rumors they might sign Carlos Pena, assuming they still have the cash to do so, would appear to confirm that -- then they are punting defense at that position, to the same extent that they are punting offense at shortstop with the recent signing of Alex Gonzalez. Right now, they're looking at below-average defense at all four corners, with minimal offense at first base (for the position), at shortstop and behind the plate, with a center fielder (Nyjer Morgan) who's a little bad luck on balls in play from hurting the team with his bat, as well. You can compete with a number of flawed players on your roster, but even in a weak division you're going to have a hard time contending like that. They'd be better off pushing Ramirez to first base and playing Taylor Green every day at third, which would at least produce a better defensive alignment without a major loss of offense, and would save them some cash to pay Francisco Rodriguez after their giant mistake in offering him arbitration.

If Milwaukee can dump Rodriguez the way the Atlanta Braves did with Rafael Soriano two years ago -- meaning the Brewers would have to pay a third or so of K-Rod's eventual salary -- they'd have some financial flexibility heading into what should be an all-in season, since three of their five starters are potential free agents after 2012. Right now, they're probably two wins worse off in the short term for replacing Fielder with Ramirez, with that gap growing over the life of the latter's contract, to say nothing of what they might lose if Ryan Braun is out for a third of the season due to a reported PED violation. And it's not clear they could do much better than Green or a Mat Gamel/Casey McGehee platoon if they went back out into the market. It's not a great position for a team coming off its first National League Championship Series appearance in 29 years.

Fielder really stands alone right now among potential impact bats on the market; Ramirez was just a poor man's alternative, but the next-best bats on the market now are guys like Michael Cuddyer and Carlos Pena, starters on bad teams who might be best cast as platoon players on good clubs. This strikes me as a very good time for the Reds to get aggressive, if not in free agency then in trades; Yonder Alonso's value has to be rising as the market for bats thins out, and he's superfluous for Cincinnati with Joey Votto at first base.

10 questions from the winter meetings.

Spoiler [+]
Now that the winter meetings are behind us, here are 10 questions after what transpired in Dallas:

1. In keeping with the spirit of the holiday season, was Albert Pujols an impulse buy for the Los Angeles Angels?

We've all done this kind of thing -- you walk past some glowing, glittering thing as you shop for the holidays, and you see something that looks really great and seems, in that moment, like a really cool purchase. And after the wrapping comes off and the credit card bill arrives, you start thinking to yourself: "Maybe that wasn't such a good thing to get …"

The Angels didn't engage Pujols' agent, Dan Lozano, until late on the night of Dec. 6, which means that in the month prior, Pujols could have easily come off the board without a single contact from the Angels, either by re-signing with the St. Louis Cardinals or by signing with the Miami Marlins on Dec. 5 or during the day Dec. 6. (Which could have happened if the Marlins had offered a no-trade clause.)

On top of that, Angels owner Arte Moreno has long established himself as one of baseball's most vocal labor hawks; this is not his usual course of action. In the aftermath of the Pujols signing, some rival executives and players who have heard a Moreno harangue about the spending of the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox and the supposed money-lust of the players chuckled. "This is the most outspoken person in the sport about spending," said one GM, with a laugh. "And then he does this."

You could argue that if you are willing to invest $200 million-plus in any player, Pujols wasn't necessarily the best available hitter.

Look, he is one of the greatest players of all time, undoubtedly, but he turns 32 in a month, and there are unquestionably signs of regression, such as his year-by-year on-base percentage: .462 ('08), .443 ('09), .414 ('10), .369 ('11). Or his substantial decline in WAR during the same span: 9.6 ('08), 9.2 ('09), 7.1 ('10), 5.4 ('11).

And here's a subtle number that some evaluators took note of: Pujols' number of assists, which have grown steadily: 97 ('05), 110 ('06), 124 ('07), 135 ('08), 185 ('09), 157 ('10), 177 ('11). Those numbers are being read as a sign of his diminishing range at first base, as he relies more and more on the pitcher to cover first base rather than taking the ball to the bag himself.

Prince Fielder is not the defensive player Pujols is, but if you were going to give out a massive long-term deal, why not go after Fielder, who is four years younger? Pujols is the more marketable player now, a great name for billboards and television ads, but Fielder is just entering the prime of his career and he would probably have come for a package significantly smaller than $250 million.

The Pujols signing feels great right now, and it may well help the Angels in the immediate future, but it's possible that his contract will weigh on them for a five- or six-year period, like that extra serving of mashed potatoes at Christmas dinner.

2. How are the Texas Rangers going to respond to what the Angels did?

Texas is loaded with television money and deep-pocketed ownership and increased attendances, and the club is stacked with talent in the majors and the minors. The Rangers are actually good enough that even if they didn't make a single move the rest of the offseason, having already signed Joe Nathan for their bullpen, they might still go into the spring as favorites in the AL West.

But rival executives around baseball figure they will do something. They are widely expected to be among the biggest bidders for Yu Darvish this week. They have talked with the Oakland Athletics about Gio Gonzalez and Andrew Bailey. They could load up on their bullpen by working out a deal with Ryan Madson.

And then there is Fielder. President Nolan Ryan has said repeatedly that he doesn't see the Rangers being a fit for the first baseman, but all around the majors, Texas is viewed as the most natural option for the slugger, who would fit them in so many ways. Like Pujols, Fielder might be better served signing with an AL team because as he gets older, he could transition into a designated hitter.

Think about the incredible lineup Texas might field with Fielder on board:

2B: Ian Kinsler
CF: Josh Hamilton
DH: Michael Young
1B: Prince Fielder
3B: Adrian Beltre
C: Mike Napoli
RF: Nelson Cruz
LF: David Murphy
SS: Elvis Andrus

Fielder might drive in 140-150 runs a year in that lineup, on that team, and he would likely really enjoy being part of that group, which is similar to the excellent culture that the Milwaukee Brewers developed.

But will the Rangers write the check, as they engage the Angels in an AL West version of the Red Sox-Yankees rivalry? We'll see.

3. What's next for the Cardinals?

Smartly, St. Louis put a Plan B in place, as it prepared for the possible departure of Pujols. Lance Berkman moves to first base, and Allen Craig takes over in right field after he recovers from knee surgery.

The Cardinals should have good pitching in a division that isn't exactly overflowing with talent: The Brewers figure to be without Fielder and maybe Ryan Braun for the first third of the year, the Chicago Cubs are rebuilding, the Cincinnati Reds have struggled to find acceptable trades, the Pittsburgh Pirates are still trying to construct a pitching staff good enough to contend and the Houston Astros are starting from the ground up under new general manager Jeff Luhnow.

Pujols may be gone, but don't forget about the Cardinals, writes Hal McCoy.

4. Does Jimmy Rollins have options other than the Philadelphia Phillies?

The San Francisco Giants have indicated that they are finished with their big-ticket spending. Talks between the Brewers and Rollins broke off during the meetings. St. Louis agreed to terms with Rafael Furcal. It's hard to imagine the New York Mets investing in a 33-year-old shortstop. The Atlanta Braves don't appear to be interested.

It's looking more and more like the Phillies will retain Rollins, writes Jeff Janiczek. Casey Feeney asks: Is it time for Rollins and the Phillies to get hitched?

5. What will the Red Sox do?

The bottom line: If they are to stay under the luxury-tax threshold, they don't have much money to spend. So their bullpen reconstruction will have to come through trade -- and they have had extensive talks about Bailey built around a package that would include Josh Reddick, as Peter Gammons has written.

6. What are the A's doing?

The Angels' payroll may well hit $170 million this year and the Rangers are a power, so the Athletics -- who hope they will be able to open a new park in San Jose in three to five years -- determined internally that they probably won't be able to contend in 2012, '13 or '14.

The bottom line is that Trevor Cahill wasn't going to be around in 2015 anyway, and neither is Gonzalez or Bailey -- so Oakland is plowing under its young crop and planting the seeds for the future. It is unpalatable for A's fans, but that's the direction owner Lew Wolff feels he needs to go.

7. Can the Toronto Blue Jays compete with the AL East big boys next season?

They landed a closer, they've got a good lineup and they have some nice young starters.

But the Jays appear to need at least one more veteran starting pitcher, which explains why they've been among the teams talking about Gonzalez.

8. Where is rock bottom for the Mets?

Jose Reyes is gone, and David Wright is going to be gone within a couple of years, at the latest. But right now, it's hard to identify the core the Mets are building around. Who are the foundation pieces? That's still to be determined.

The Mets never wanted Reyes, writes Bob Klapisch.

I don't completely agree with that; I think there was an evolution of thought on Reyes that shifted because of his injuries in the second half of the season. It was as if those hamstring issues confirmed for the Mets that Reyes was a highly paid player who may well spend significant time on the disabled list in the next five seasons, and that scared them away from offering a contract that would have set him up to be the foundation of the franchise.

9. How much patience will the Marlins -- and their fans -- have?

They have a new ballpark, a new manager, new uniforms, new ballplayers. But the great fear within the industry is that Miami has built up expectations so high that a slow start would not play well within the market. Joe Capozzi wrote the other day that even with the makeover, the Marlins' success or failure is still predicated on two players -- Josh Johnson, their oft-injured ace, and Hanley Ramirez, who is coming off the worst season of his career.

So folks around the sport wonder how Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will react if the team struggles, or if the fans' response is initially lukewarm. In theory, the Marlins may have been only a no-trade clause away from signing Pujols -- and ownership could have easily made an exception in Pujols' case, saying that he is a once-in-a-lifetime player.

Their refusal to go that last step makes some in the game wonder whether the Marlins do have contingency plans in the back of their minds as they attempt this makeover.

10. What will Michael Cuddyer do?

The Minnesota Twins want him back, and the Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies want him. If one of the teams doesn't step out with a four-year offer, Cuddyer could be headed back to Minnesota, where he is regarded as the team's emotional core.

The winners of the winter meetings were the Angels and Marlins, writes Phil Rogers.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• History says Braun will have difficulty winning his appeal, writes Tom Haudricourt. His test results were insanely high, reports Teri Thompson, and this will be used in the defense.

Braun is not the first player to come under the scrutiny of the drug-testing program. He has hired a really prominent lawyer.

Braun has always been thought of as one of the good guys, writes Tyler Kepner. Braun was a hot topic at Lambeau Field.

Baseball's feel-good glow has dimmed, writes Larry Fine. Braun shocked his sport, writes Damien Cox. The Braun case shouldn't be a surprise, writes David Neal.

Braun's sparkling image is being put to the test, writes Chris Jenkins.

Baseball is alone in the doping battle, writes Dejan Kovacevic.

Ryan Braun has been great for baseball, and in a perfect baseball world, he wouldn't be in this situation. And if he is completely innocent, as he says, then all this is terrible.

But if Braun is guilty of wrongdoing, then in the big picture for Major League Baseball, a suspension of a major star would be another indication of how far the sport has come in its testing. A decade ago, players could do anything at any time without repercussions -- and a lot of players felt they had to take drugs just to keep up.

From Dejan's column:
  • And it goes to the top, with [Bud] Selig and the players' union recently ratifying a labor pact that includes the first blood tests for HGH in North American pro sports. Players have given urine samples for a decade, but HGH is hard to detect, so they'll now take random blood tests in spring training. The New York Times reported two weeks ago that, by testing roughly 1,200 players per year, MLB will be even more comprehensive than WADA, which tests just 3,425 of its tens of thousands of eligible athletes.
  • The always-outspoken WADA folks used to make a living trashing baseball, but here's what director general David Howman told the Times: "At last, we are in a position where we can say Major League Baseball is taking a leading role. This is something we are concerned about regarding our own testing."
  • Funny, no mention of Roger Goodell, Gary Bettman or David Stern.
From Mark Simon of ESPN Stats & Information: In 2011, Braun and Fielder combined for 38.4 percent of Milwaukee's total home run output (71 of 185 total homers), the third-highest mark in baseball. Pujols and Berkman combined for 42 percent of St. Louis' homers (68 of 162), and Matt Kemp and Rod Barajas hit 47 percent of all homers (55 of 117) for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Ronnie Paulino will likely be non-tendered today, writes Andy Martino.

2. The Kansas City Royals are facing some tough decisions today.

3. All signs point to slow and steady for the Red Sox decision-makers, writes Michael Silverman. Boston might have to trust its young relievers, writes Brian MacPherson.

4. Felix Pie signed a minor league deal.

5. The Tampa Bay Rays are banking on the potential of Matt Moore, writes Roger Mooney. There is risk for both the Rays and Moore.

Fallout of Ryan Braun's failed test.

Spoiler [+]
Ryan Braun, who tested positive for a performance-enhancing drug and faces a 50-day suspension if the finding is upheld, sent a text to Tom Haudricourt, asserting his innocence. A positive test would be a severe blow, writes Michael Hunt. His positive test is tough to take, writes Troy Renck, and I'll echo some of what Renck has here: Braun is a really good guy and a player who has embraced his role as a leader in the sport.

Three thoughts:

1. Braun is the 2011 NL MVP and there is no precedent for that to be altered, even if he's suspended. The Baseball Writers Association of America has never stripped a winner of an award, including Alex Rodriguez, who has acknowledged using performance-enhancing drugs in 2003, when he won the AL MVP.

But that's a stance completely at odds with the writers' collective stance in the Hall of Fame balloting, in which voters have treated the history of Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, et al, as if it doesn't exist; they've stripped those players of the accomplishments of their entire careers -- and sometimes based on mere suspicion, as in the case of Jeff Bagwell.

Let's take Roger Clemens, for example. If he's not voted into the Hall of Fame, as expected, then on one hand, you would have a significant portion of the BBWAA taking a hard stance against his accomplishments because of suspected PED use -- and on the other hand, the same association would continue to recognize him as a seven-time Cy Young Award winner and a one-time MVP.

A "no" vote on the Hall of Fame question for Barry Bonds and Clemens is essentially meant to expunge the record -- so it's hard to understand why the BBWAA wouldn't take the next logical step of withdrawing its recognition of a player as an award winner. Through its participation in the Hall of Fame voting, the writers' association is effectively invalidating its own awards.

This is just one aspect of the slippery slope created by linking the "no" votes on the Hall of Fame question to proof or suspicion of PED use. (For the record, I've voted for McGwire every year he's been on the ballot, and I'll vote for Clemens and Bonds.)

2. As Braun fights the suspension, he has probably already lost a battle that goes on simultaneously: to clear his name of wrongdoing. For years, fans, media and other players have heard literally dozens of other athletes suspected of PED use proclaim their innocence, from Palmeiro to Marion Jones to Floyd Landis to others, in the face of overwhelming evidence -- and many have acknowledged later that they initially lied.

Even if Braun wins his appeal, the fact is that the positive test will hang on him in the court of public opinion.

3. It's evident from the texts and emails received on Saturday that players are much more vigilant about PED use than they used to be. Years ago, before testing was implemented and before players had a fuller understanding of what occurred during the steroid era, the response of a lot of players was indifference. Their feeling was that even if another player was a user and they didn't approve, they felt that it wasn't really something that had a practical impact on them individually.

Now, more than ever, a lot of players view users as a threat to their livelihood.

And while the report of Braun's testing positive could not have come at a worse time for baseball, which has been riding a wave of success the past three months, there is this: It is an initial sign (under appeal) that the system works and has integrity.

[h4]Ryan Braun[/h4]
Comparing Braun's last two seasons at the plate
[table][tr][th=""]
Stat
[/th][th=""]
2010
[/th][th=""]
2011
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
BA
[/td][td]
.304
[/td][td]
.332
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Slug Pct
[/td][td]
.501
[/td][td]
.597<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
HR
[/td][td]
25
[/td][td]
33
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
PA per HR
[/td][td]
27.4
[/td][td]
19.1
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>> 96-point increase, 5th-largest in MLB[/td][/tr][/table]

From ESPN Stats and Info:

• Braun would be the first MVP to be suspended for violating the MLB PED policy.

Some Braun career highlights:

• Won 2007 NL Rookie of the Year, 2011 NL MVP
• 161 HR in first five seasons; 10th most by a player in his first five seasons
• Four-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Signed five-year, $105 million extension (covering 2016 to 2020) in April 2011 (Braun is owed $36.5 million in base salary from 2012 to 2015, then $105 million from 2016 to 2020).

Next Level:

• Isolated Power measures a player's extra bases gained per at-bat. Braun's Isolated Power increased from .197 in 2010 to .265 in 2011. That was the fifth-largest jump of any player from 2010 to 2011.

Geoff Baker writes that if Braun is suspended, writers should demand a revote.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was introduced by the Los Angeles Angels and got the hearts of the fans racing, writes Bill Shaikin. Southern Cal is buzzing, writes Bill Plaschke.

Pujols wants to talk about only his new team, writes Bill Plunkett.

How ready was he to leave the St. Louis Cardinals? Well, think about it: He agreed to terms with the Angels without a single face-to-face visit with the L.A. brass, or to the Anaheim area, after a decade with the Cardinals. This speaks strongly to the unhappiness Pujols felt about the way the negotiations with St. Louis played out.

For Pujols, it came down to commitment. Here's the full-page ad that Pujols took out.

The signing is as sad as it is sensational, writes Tim Sullivan.

I'll have more on the Pujols decision in Monday's column.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Oakland Athletics will continue to make trades, as they plow under their best assets in an effort to have the young talent blossom at about the same time the organization hopes to move into a new ballpark in San Jose in 2014. So in the days and weeks ahead, the Athletics will probably trade Andrew Bailey (the Boston Red Sox appear to be the front-runner) and Gio Gonzalez (the Texas Rangers are in a great position to strike if they are willing to absorb the cost -- a prospect such as pitcher Martin Perez).

Scott Ostler is down on the Oakland leadership.

2. C.J. Wilson was pretty open about the fact that he was disappointed with the Rangers' offer to him. The Rangers are regarded within the industry as the favorites to land Yu Darvish, given all the work of scout A.J. Preller on the pitcher.

3. Ian Kinsler is talking about a new contract with the Rangers.

4. At least four teams have had discussions with the Miami Marlins during this offseason about Hanley Ramirez trade possibilities, although there is zero indication that there has been traction gained in any of the talks. The Marlins possess a player who has demonstrated extraordinary talent in the past, and because of his awful 2011 showing and his rising salary -- he's owed $46 million over the next three years -- his market value couldn't be lower. They wouldn't just give him away. The Marlins' success next season depends on Josh Johnson and Ramirez, writes Joe Capozzi. Agree with him 100 percent.

5. The Philadelphia Phillies are the best fit for Jimmy Rollins, writes Bob Ford. With the Milwaukee Brewers and Cardinals out of the running, Rollins is running out of leverage in his negotiations with Philadelphia -- although maybe he intended to go back all along, unless the San Francisco Giants got involved.

6. Neal Huntington hopes his portfolio will pay off.

7. The winter meetings for the Baltimore Orioles were quiet, generally. Looking forward to the visit to Orioles camp in the spring, because they recently added a pitcher with whom I share high school roots (Oliver Drake) and an infielder who went to the same college (Ryan Flaherty).

8. The New York Yankees are patiently waiting for the right deal, writes George King.

9. The Red Sox are prepping Daniel Bard to be a starter, writes Michael Vega. Bobby Valentine met with Red Sox faithful at Fenway Park.

10. The purse strings are getting tighter at Fenway Park, writes Nick Cafardo.

11. The moves made by the Marlins will allow them to compete with the big dogs of the NL East, some analysts believe.

12. The Marlins explained why they are not interested in Prince Fielder.

13. The Chicago Cubs are trying to tailor their roster to Wrigley, writes Paul Sullivan.

14. Octavio Dotel is about to pitch for his 13th team.

15. The Cincinnati Reds can learn from the Cardinals, writes John Fay.

Got this from John Garner, about Cape Cod League alumni:
  • The recent hiring of Bobby Valentine as 45th manager of the Boston Red Sox gives the Cape Cod Baseball League a record eight of its playing alumni currently managing in the major leagues.
  • Valentine, who hit .294 and led the CCBL in runs scored during the summer of 1967 for the Yarmouth Indians, joins new Chicago White Sox manager and 2002 CCBL Hall of Famer Robin Ventura (Hyannis 1987) and St. Louis Cardinals mentor Mike Matheny (Cotuit 1989), who've also been hired during the past offseason.
  • Other current major league managers who played on the Cape include CCBL Hall of Famers Buck Showalter (Hyannis '76) of the Baltimore Orioles and Eric Wedge (Y-D 1988) of the Seattle Mariners, Joe Girardi (Cotuit 1984) of the New York Yankees, Jim Tracy (Chatham 1976) of the Colorado Rockies and John Farrell (Hyannis 1982) of the Toronto Blue Jays, former pitching coach of the Red Sox.
 
Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN

Hey Proshares I've been meaning to thank you for continuously posting all the info you do. 
Click to expand...

pimp.gif


Danny Bard, a starter? Not sure if serious...

Darvish to the Rangers is interesting. There seems to be a aversion to Japanese pitchers considering some of the previous flops, but Darvish's stuff would play anywhere. Can't help but think the Yanks are in on him too. No way they go into ST with their current pitching staff. A trade is probably more likely, though. 
 
Originally Posted by FIRST B0RN

Hey Proshares I've been meaning to thank you for continuously posting all the info you do. 
Click to expand...

pimp.gif


Danny Bard, a starter? Not sure if serious...

Darvish to the Rangers is interesting. There seems to be a aversion to Japanese pitchers considering some of the previous flops, but Darvish's stuff would play anywhere. Can't help but think the Yanks are in on him too. No way they go into ST with their current pitching staff. A trade is probably more likely, though. 
 
I'm looking into getting Albert's full page ad he took out in the Stl Post Dispatch transferred onto some toilet paper.
 
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