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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Wow, that is an extremely short sighted view by Rosenthal. Too bad too cuz usually he's a decent writer.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
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GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Because Beane is looking to compete in 2014-2015 and Cespedes will still be under contract. If he does well and we have a new stadium on the way, it's not far fetched that we would try to resign him also. And sure $36 mil is a great deal for a low market team but we still have the 2nd lowest payroll in baseball. We had the money and decided to take the risk. If he is legit, it could be easier to attract another bat also.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
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Because Beane is looking to compete in 2014-2015 and Cespedes will still be under contract. If he does well and we have a new stadium on the way, it's not far fetched that we would try to resign him also. And sure $36 mil is a great deal for a low market team but we still have the 2nd lowest payroll in baseball. We had the money and decided to take the risk. If he is legit, it could be easier to attract another bat also.
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Wow, that is an extremely short sighted view by Rosenthal. Too bad too cuz usually he's a decent writer.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
- 1,768
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Wow, that is an extremely short sighted view by Rosenthal. Too bad too cuz usually he's a decent writer.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
The logic is that attendance is usually a year slow on catching up with performance. That is to say attendance doesn't go up until a year after the team is good. Hence, the team wants to go into their projected new stadium already contending, not start contending the first year they enter. That's why a ton of their prospects are going to be ready this year and next year. So that they enter contending.
In terms of resigning him, the owner Wolff has already stated that he would significantly bump up the Payroll when the new stadium is ready, just like the Marlins this year. So, if Cespedes is worth resigning, he'll throw down the money. If Cespedes leaves, the allure of a new stadium, a contending team, and cash, will be enough to bring in other FA's.
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Take this FWIW:
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Take this FWIW:
Oakland's motive behind the Cespedes deal.
Rumors.
http://[h3]More moves late in spring training?[/h3]
7:29AM ET
[h5]CBA ramifications [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The new baseball season will bring about a whole new set of guidelines. The bases are still 90 feet apart, but the ramifications of the new collective bargaining agreement are still being digested by front offices throughout the game.
Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out one element of the CBA that could result in significant roster movement near the end of the spring training. Most free agents who have played at least six major league seasons and who have signed minor league contracts this offseason must either be put on the big league roster five days before the regular season or be given a $100,000 bonus to go to the minors and the right to opt out of their contract on June 1.
The union insisted on the provision to make sure that a veteran does not get stuck in the minors. Sherman notes that most teams will balk at paying the bonus, resulting in greater player movement in late March. That would explain, for example, why the New York Mets may have been less enthusiastic in their pursuit of Rick Ankiel and will instead wait to see who becomes avialable in the days leading up to Opening Day.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Mets rotation outlook[/h3]
7:01AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets are hoping to get left-handed ace Johan Santana back in 2012, and the southpaw played long toss from 175 feet Monday at Mets camp, tweets Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.
Dan Martin of the New York Post says Santana continues to build up arm strength and will throw off a mound Thursday or Friday.
Santana is still a little behind the other starters in spring training and still isn't likely to start the season on the active roster, but the club is hoping to get him about 25 starts in 2012.
Right-handers Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee, as well as left-hander Jonathon Niese are virtual locks for four of the five rotations spots. If Santana needs longer to get ready, as expected, Chris Schwinden and Chuck James are two candidates that could battle for the No. 5 spot.
Prospect Matt Harvey is likely starting the year in the minors to get more seasoning, but he could make his big-league debut this coming season. Jenrry Mejia is coming off Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to compete for a major league role right away.
Jeurys Familia is an arm likely headed for the bullpen long term.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes' fantasy fortune[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year deal Monday and the Cuban outfielder will begin his career in the states in the American League West. The $36 million is nice, but his home ballpark doesn't help his overall value, and certainly not his fantasy value.
ESPN.com's Eric Karabell writes Monday that Cespedes, while being a difficult projection with which to begin, loses some value in home park:
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Cespedes' home park hurts his value
Spoiler [+]
It's not only casual baseball fans who view the Oakland Athletics offseason as an unsolvable logic maze. Some rival talent evaluators puzzled and puzzled until their puzzlers were sore on Monday night, after word broke that the Athletics had signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million deal.
After all, Oakland traded two good young starting pitchers for prospects -- first Trevor Cahill and then Gio Gonzalez -- reducing their ability to contend with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels in the next couple of seasons. And now the Athletics have paid a premium to Cespedes, giving an unproven outfielder who is older than either Cahill or Gonzalez more money than they've committed to any player in their organization.
But there is common thread to all of it, and you can sum it up with four numbers: 2. 0. 1. 5.
As in the year 2015. Everything the Athletics are doing is being funneled into 2015, or thereabouts.
The earliest they could probably open a new San Jose ballpark, if the Commissioner's Office forces or negotiates with the San Francisco Giants to give up the territorial rights to that city, would be in 2015.
The final year of Cespedes' deal -- when the Athletics probably have the best chance of getting return on their investment -- will be 2015. They can't get elite veteran power hitters to sign with their organization, so they have signed an amateur with big-time power. "To me, what you're paying for is two years of development for him, as he makes his adjustments," said one general manager, "and two years of good production, if he is what they think he is."
The Athletics, who debut in our Future Power Rankings in the bottom third of the 30 teams partly because of their uncertain ballpark situation, have created a wave of prospects that could hit in a big way in 2015.
Jarrod Parker, who Oakland got in the Cahill deal, will probably be in his third or fourth full season by then. Sonny Gray, the right-hander taken in the first round last summer, may follow a similar path. Brad Peacock, who might be the most important piece from the Gio Gonzalez trade, is highly regarded by rival executives. "I think he's got a chance to be a special pitcher," said an NL evaluator on the day the deal was finished.
The Athletics have built similar blueprints in recent seasons only to blow up those plans. A year ago, they appeared to be riding into the future built on Brett Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez and others. But a year ago, they had hope that their ballpark situation would be resolved quickly enough for them to get a new home in 2013 or 2014, and because of the recurring delays, that timetable has been backed up -- and Oakland would've been faced with a situation in which Cahill and Gonzalez and Anderson would be on the verge of free agency in 2015, just as they hope to open their new park.
The reality is that it's very possible that if no hard plans are made for a ballpark and Oakland's stagnant situation continues to rot, the Athletics will again blow up the blueprint and back up the rebuilding timetable. The team really can't follow through until baseball officials follow through with assurances of settling the San Jose situation, one way or another.
Some notes on the Cespedes signing, from Justin Havens and J.B. Kritz of ESPN Stats and Info:
The Miami Marlins were outbid by about 50 percent in annual salary, as it turns out -- they offered $6 million a year for six years, rather than $9 million a year for four years -- and weren't very surprised that they missed out, writes Clark Spencer.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Clayton Kershaw is a 23-year-old with the maturity and wisdom of a 50-year-old.
• The time has come for Hanley Ramirez to impress his teammates, writes Mike Berardino.
• The Cleveland Indians signed Jon Garland to a minor-league deal.
• The Chicago Cubs are the leading bidders for Jorge Soler, writes Dave van Dyck.
• Part of the reason why some executives are leery of Johnny Damon, as Joel Sherman explains here, is that they fret about how he seems to be expanding his strike zone as he draws closer to 3,000 hits.
• Phil Hughes is much more fit, writes Kevin Kernan.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are swinging for a huge television deal, writes Matt Gelb.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Little progress has been made on a Ryan Zimmerman extension, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. Ike Davis says he's good to go.
3. The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees continue to haggle over the A.J. Burnett deal, writes Marc Carig.
4. A Minnesota Twins reliever was sent to Class AAA.
5. Jerry Dipoto is not eager to trade Bobby Abreu, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
6. If the Kansas City Royals added a veteran starter, says Dayton Moore, it would block an in-house candidate.
7. Some Detroit Tigers left-handers are getting an early start, writes Lynn Henning.
8. Roy Oswalt is not on the Reds' radar at the moment.
9. The Baltimore Orioles and Adam Jones have had preliminary extension talks.
10. David Ortiz settled his arbitration case with the Boston Red Sox. He's reached the stage of his career when the Red Sox will probably go year to year with him, and as soon as he shows marked decline in his performance, they'll probably turn the page.
11. Daniel Bard is ready to get cranked up in his effort to move into the rotation.
12. The Toronto Blue Jays signed Casey Janssen.
13. Wade Davis is taking trade rumors in stride, writes Roger Mooney.
14. A reliever is getting another chance with the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
After all, Oakland traded two good young starting pitchers for prospects -- first Trevor Cahill and then Gio Gonzalez -- reducing their ability to contend with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels in the next couple of seasons. And now the Athletics have paid a premium to Cespedes, giving an unproven outfielder who is older than either Cahill or Gonzalez more money than they've committed to any player in their organization.
But there is common thread to all of it, and you can sum it up with four numbers: 2. 0. 1. 5.
As in the year 2015. Everything the Athletics are doing is being funneled into 2015, or thereabouts.
The earliest they could probably open a new San Jose ballpark, if the Commissioner's Office forces or negotiates with the San Francisco Giants to give up the territorial rights to that city, would be in 2015.
The final year of Cespedes' deal -- when the Athletics probably have the best chance of getting return on their investment -- will be 2015. They can't get elite veteran power hitters to sign with their organization, so they have signed an amateur with big-time power. "To me, what you're paying for is two years of development for him, as he makes his adjustments," said one general manager, "and two years of good production, if he is what they think he is."
The Athletics, who debut in our Future Power Rankings in the bottom third of the 30 teams partly because of their uncertain ballpark situation, have created a wave of prospects that could hit in a big way in 2015.
Jarrod Parker, who Oakland got in the Cahill deal, will probably be in his third or fourth full season by then. Sonny Gray, the right-hander taken in the first round last summer, may follow a similar path. Brad Peacock, who might be the most important piece from the Gio Gonzalez trade, is highly regarded by rival executives. "I think he's got a chance to be a special pitcher," said an NL evaluator on the day the deal was finished.
The Athletics have built similar blueprints in recent seasons only to blow up those plans. A year ago, they appeared to be riding into the future built on Brett Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez and others. But a year ago, they had hope that their ballpark situation would be resolved quickly enough for them to get a new home in 2013 or 2014, and because of the recurring delays, that timetable has been backed up -- and Oakland would've been faced with a situation in which Cahill and Gonzalez and Anderson would be on the verge of free agency in 2015, just as they hope to open their new park.
The reality is that it's very possible that if no hard plans are made for a ballpark and Oakland's stagnant situation continues to rot, the Athletics will again blow up the blueprint and back up the rebuilding timetable. The team really can't follow through until baseball officials follow through with assurances of settling the San Jose situation, one way or another.
Some notes on the Cespedes signing, from Justin Havens and J.B. Kritz of ESPN Stats and Info:
- • Cespedes is a 26-year-old outfielder
• He hit .333 BA/.424 OBP/.667 SLG, 33 HR, 99 RBI in 90 games during 2010-11 season
• He was Cuba's starting center fielder in the 2009 World Baseball Classic (.458 BA in six games)
• He went 5-for-35, 1 HR, 0 BB, 10 K in Dominican Winter League
• He'll earn approximately $9 million per season in his four-year, $36M deal, with $6.5 million coming in 2012. That would make him the highest-paid player on the A's next season (about $500,000 more than Coco Crisp).
• Cespedes' $36 million contract represents more than 10 percent of the Athletics' franchise value and more than 50 percent of their opening day payroll last season. Forbes magazine valued the club at $307 million in March 2011.
• For Cespedes to earn his average annual value of about $9 million, he will need to produce somewhere between 1.9 and 2.2 WAR (according to FanGraphs). Some outfielders who fell in that range last season: Crisp, Nick Markakis, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, Seth Smith.
The Miami Marlins were outbid by about 50 percent in annual salary, as it turns out -- they offered $6 million a year for six years, rather than $9 million a year for four years -- and weren't very surprised that they missed out, writes Clark Spencer.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Clayton Kershaw is a 23-year-old with the maturity and wisdom of a 50-year-old.
• The time has come for Hanley Ramirez to impress his teammates, writes Mike Berardino.
• The Cleveland Indians signed Jon Garland to a minor-league deal.
• The Chicago Cubs are the leading bidders for Jorge Soler, writes Dave van Dyck.
• Part of the reason why some executives are leery of Johnny Damon, as Joel Sherman explains here, is that they fret about how he seems to be expanding his strike zone as he draws closer to 3,000 hits.
• Phil Hughes is much more fit, writes Kevin Kernan.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are swinging for a huge television deal, writes Matt Gelb.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Little progress has been made on a Ryan Zimmerman extension, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. Ike Davis says he's good to go.
3. The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees continue to haggle over the A.J. Burnett deal, writes Marc Carig.
4. A Minnesota Twins reliever was sent to Class AAA.
5. Jerry Dipoto is not eager to trade Bobby Abreu, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
6. If the Kansas City Royals added a veteran starter, says Dayton Moore, it would block an in-house candidate.
7. Some Detroit Tigers left-handers are getting an early start, writes Lynn Henning.
8. Roy Oswalt is not on the Reds' radar at the moment.
9. The Baltimore Orioles and Adam Jones have had preliminary extension talks.
10. David Ortiz settled his arbitration case with the Boston Red Sox. He's reached the stage of his career when the Red Sox will probably go year to year with him, and as soon as he shows marked decline in his performance, they'll probably turn the page.
11. Daniel Bard is ready to get cranked up in his effort to move into the rotation.
12. The Toronto Blue Jays signed Casey Janssen.
13. Wade Davis is taking trade rumors in stride, writes Roger Mooney.
14. A reliever is getting another chance with the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Cubs close to Soler deal?[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes may be on his way to Oakland, but the Chicago Cubs may still be on the verge of a deal with a notable Cuban outfielder.
Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune cites reports out of the Dominican Republic that say the Cubs are the favorite to land Soler and are willing to spend $27.5 million over three or four years.
Unlike Cespedes, the 20-year-old Soler hasn't been declared eligible to sign, but Gordon Wittenmyer says that approval might come within days.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Damon's expanding strike zone[/h3]
9:31AM ET
[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]
Johnny Damon's quest for 3,000 hits may be one reason the free agent outfielder is still looking for a job just a few days before the start of spring training.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to three executives who worry that Damon may be expanding his strike zone as he nears 3,000 hits. Damon's batting average dropped 10 points from 2010 to 2011, but his on-base average fell a notable 29 points to .326 from .355.
Damon, still 277 hits from 3,000, has built a reputation as a disciplined hitter, the type that draws attention from pennant-contending clubs.
The 38-year-old Damon admitted to being surprised when the Tampa Bay Rays elected not to re-sign him this winter. Damon has been linked to the Orioles, Athletics and Yankees in recent weeks, but the A's may no longer be interested after landing Yoenis Cespedes.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs eye Ramon Ortiz[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Ramon Ortiz | Cubs [/h5]
The Cubs are interested in offering pitcher Ramon Ortiz a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training camp, says Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Levine notes that Cubs president Theo Epstein wants the pitching staff to go 10 deep in starting pitcher candidates. One option could be the 38-year-old Ortiz, who was with the Cubs last season, splitting time between the big league club and Triple-A Iowa . He was 1-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 22 games with the Cubs.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Oswalt hoping for Texas[/h3]
9:00AM ET
[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]
If the Texas Rangers are to make a deal for free agent Roy Oswalt, GM Jon Daniels hinted over the weekend that the club will have to shed an existing contract. Reds GM Walt Jocketty thinks Oswalt is hoping for just that.
Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer the Reds have had no contact with Oswalt's agents in the last week. "I think he's waiting for Texas to clear money," Jocketty said.
Daniels tells ESPNDallas.com the organization was "a tick over" its payroll budget after agreeing to a deal with Mike Napoli for a reported $9.4 million.
The deal seems signal the end of the club's shopping for big-ticket items on the free-agent market. The Rangers would like to find a home for right-handed reliever Koji Uehara, who will earn $4 million this season, and that could free some cash for Oswalt
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can Nats and Zimmerman agree?[/h3]
8:37AM ET
[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]
The Washington Nationals were believed to be interested in Prince Fielder before the free agent first baseman found a $214 million home with the Detroit Tigers. That would seem to give the Nats some extra discretionary cash, some of which could be spent on an extension with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman, a free agent after the 2013 season, has often stated his desire to spend his entire career in D.C., but there have been no new recent developments regarding a contract extension, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Kilgore says Zimmerman has not changed his stance of making the start of spring training an informal deadline to table contract discussions, so the next few days could be pivotal. If and when the talks heat up, a point of comparison will be the eight-year, $160 million deal given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to Matt Kemp as well as the deals given to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki.
Zimmerman will make $12 million this season and $14 million in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]O's, Jones talk extension [/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Adam Jones | Orioles [/h5]
The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks about a contract extension with Adam Jones, but the more immediate task is to avoid an arbitration hearing with the outfielder scheduled for Friday, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
The 26-year-old Jones, who made $3.25 million in 2011, submitted a $7.4 million salary for next season after hitting .280 with 25 homers and 83 RBI. The Orioles countered with $5 million.
Jones was linked earlier this offseason to a possible blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves that never materialized.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can A's add Cespedes and Manny?[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Rays | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics became a far more compelling team Monday thanks to the deal for Yoenis Cespedes, and the acquisition of the Cuban outfielder apparently won't stall the pursuit of Manny Ramirez.
Even with the addition of Cespedes, Ramirez is "still on the board" in Oakland, a source tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Oakland seems to have emerged as a more plausible landing spot for Ramirez. Phil Rogers wrote last weekend that Ramirez is likely to sign with the A's since general manager Billy Beane almost certainly would try to deal him before the July 31 deadline if he showed he still can drive in runs.
Meanwhile, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette recently said the mercurial slugger wasn't a fit in Baltimore.
Before Ramirez can play for a new team, he will have to serve a 50-game suspension for failing a drug test.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Manny a no-risk option
9:47AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes may be on his way to Oakland, but the Chicago Cubs may still be on the verge of a deal with a notable Cuban outfielder.
Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune cites reports out of the Dominican Republic that say the Cubs are the favorite to land Soler and are willing to spend $27.5 million over three or four years.
Unlike Cespedes, the 20-year-old Soler hasn't been declared eligible to sign, but Gordon Wittenmyer says that approval might come within days.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Damon's expanding strike zone[/h3]
9:31AM ET
[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]
Johnny Damon's quest for 3,000 hits may be one reason the free agent outfielder is still looking for a job just a few days before the start of spring training.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to three executives who worry that Damon may be expanding his strike zone as he nears 3,000 hits. Damon's batting average dropped 10 points from 2010 to 2011, but his on-base average fell a notable 29 points to .326 from .355.
Damon, still 277 hits from 3,000, has built a reputation as a disciplined hitter, the type that draws attention from pennant-contending clubs.
The 38-year-old Damon admitted to being surprised when the Tampa Bay Rays elected not to re-sign him this winter. Damon has been linked to the Orioles, Athletics and Yankees in recent weeks, but the A's may no longer be interested after landing Yoenis Cespedes.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs eye Ramon Ortiz[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Ramon Ortiz | Cubs [/h5]
The Cubs are interested in offering pitcher Ramon Ortiz a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training camp, says Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Levine notes that Cubs president Theo Epstein wants the pitching staff to go 10 deep in starting pitcher candidates. One option could be the 38-year-old Ortiz, who was with the Cubs last season, splitting time between the big league club and Triple-A Iowa . He was 1-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 22 games with the Cubs.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Oswalt hoping for Texas[/h3]
9:00AM ET
[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]
If the Texas Rangers are to make a deal for free agent Roy Oswalt, GM Jon Daniels hinted over the weekend that the club will have to shed an existing contract. Reds GM Walt Jocketty thinks Oswalt is hoping for just that.
Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer the Reds have had no contact with Oswalt's agents in the last week. "I think he's waiting for Texas to clear money," Jocketty said.
Daniels tells ESPNDallas.com the organization was "a tick over" its payroll budget after agreeing to a deal with Mike Napoli for a reported $9.4 million.
The deal seems signal the end of the club's shopping for big-ticket items on the free-agent market. The Rangers would like to find a home for right-handed reliever Koji Uehara, who will earn $4 million this season, and that could free some cash for Oswalt
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can Nats and Zimmerman agree?[/h3]
8:37AM ET
[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]
The Washington Nationals were believed to be interested in Prince Fielder before the free agent first baseman found a $214 million home with the Detroit Tigers. That would seem to give the Nats some extra discretionary cash, some of which could be spent on an extension with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman, a free agent after the 2013 season, has often stated his desire to spend his entire career in D.C., but there have been no new recent developments regarding a contract extension, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Kilgore says Zimmerman has not changed his stance of making the start of spring training an informal deadline to table contract discussions, so the next few days could be pivotal. If and when the talks heat up, a point of comparison will be the eight-year, $160 million deal given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to Matt Kemp as well as the deals given to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki.
Zimmerman will make $12 million this season and $14 million in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]O's, Jones talk extension [/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Adam Jones | Orioles [/h5]
The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks about a contract extension with Adam Jones, but the more immediate task is to avoid an arbitration hearing with the outfielder scheduled for Friday, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
The 26-year-old Jones, who made $3.25 million in 2011, submitted a $7.4 million salary for next season after hitting .280 with 25 homers and 83 RBI. The Orioles countered with $5 million.
Jones was linked earlier this offseason to a possible blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves that never materialized.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can A's add Cespedes and Manny?[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Rays | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics became a far more compelling team Monday thanks to the deal for Yoenis Cespedes, and the acquisition of the Cuban outfielder apparently won't stall the pursuit of Manny Ramirez.
Even with the addition of Cespedes, Ramirez is "still on the board" in Oakland, a source tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Oakland seems to have emerged as a more plausible landing spot for Ramirez. Phil Rogers wrote last weekend that Ramirez is likely to sign with the A's since general manager Billy Beane almost certainly would try to deal him before the July 31 deadline if he showed he still can drive in runs.
Meanwhile, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette recently said the mercurial slugger wasn't a fit in Baltimore.
Before Ramirez can play for a new team, he will have to serve a 50-game suspension for failing a drug test.
- Doug Mittler
Manny a no-risk option
7:29AM ET
[h5]CBA ramifications [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The new baseball season will bring about a whole new set of guidelines. The bases are still 90 feet apart, but the ramifications of the new collective bargaining agreement are still being digested by front offices throughout the game.
Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out one element of the CBA that could result in significant roster movement near the end of the spring training. Most free agents who have played at least six major league seasons and who have signed minor league contracts this offseason must either be put on the big league roster five days before the regular season or be given a $100,000 bonus to go to the minors and the right to opt out of their contract on June 1.
The union insisted on the provision to make sure that a veteran does not get stuck in the minors. Sherman notes that most teams will balk at paying the bonus, resulting in greater player movement in late March. That would explain, for example, why the New York Mets may have been less enthusiastic in their pursuit of Rick Ankiel and will instead wait to see who becomes avialable in the days leading up to Opening Day.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Mets rotation outlook[/h3]
7:01AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets are hoping to get left-handed ace Johan Santana back in 2012, and the southpaw played long toss from 175 feet Monday at Mets camp, tweets Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.
Dan Martin of the New York Post says Santana continues to build up arm strength and will throw off a mound Thursday or Friday.
Santana is still a little behind the other starters in spring training and still isn't likely to start the season on the active roster, but the club is hoping to get him about 25 starts in 2012.
Right-handers Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee, as well as left-hander Jonathon Niese are virtual locks for four of the five rotations spots. If Santana needs longer to get ready, as expected, Chris Schwinden and Chuck James are two candidates that could battle for the No. 5 spot.
Prospect Matt Harvey is likely starting the year in the minors to get more seasoning, but he could make his big-league debut this coming season. Jenrry Mejia is coming off Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to compete for a major league role right away.
Jeurys Familia is an arm likely headed for the bullpen long term.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes' fantasy fortune[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year deal Monday and the Cuban outfielder will begin his career in the states in the American League West. The $36 million is nice, but his home ballpark doesn't help his overall value, and certainly not his fantasy value.
ESPN.com's Eric Karabell writes Monday that Cespedes, while being a difficult projection with which to begin, loses some value in home park:
- Jason A. Churchill
Cespedes' home park hurts his value
Oakland's motive behind the Cespedes deal.
Rumors.
http://[h3]More moves late in spring training?[/h3]
7:29AM ET
[h5]CBA ramifications [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The new baseball season will bring about a whole new set of guidelines. The bases are still 90 feet apart, but the ramifications of the new collective bargaining agreement are still being digested by front offices throughout the game.
Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out one element of the CBA that could result in significant roster movement near the end of the spring training. Most free agents who have played at least six major league seasons and who have signed minor league contracts this offseason must either be put on the big league roster five days before the regular season or be given a $100,000 bonus to go to the minors and the right to opt out of their contract on June 1.
The union insisted on the provision to make sure that a veteran does not get stuck in the minors. Sherman notes that most teams will balk at paying the bonus, resulting in greater player movement in late March. That would explain, for example, why the New York Mets may have been less enthusiastic in their pursuit of Rick Ankiel and will instead wait to see who becomes avialable in the days leading up to Opening Day.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Mets rotation outlook[/h3]
7:01AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets are hoping to get left-handed ace Johan Santana back in 2012, and the southpaw played long toss from 175 feet Monday at Mets camp, tweets Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.
Dan Martin of the New York Post says Santana continues to build up arm strength and will throw off a mound Thursday or Friday.
Santana is still a little behind the other starters in spring training and still isn't likely to start the season on the active roster, but the club is hoping to get him about 25 starts in 2012.
Right-handers Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee, as well as left-hander Jonathon Niese are virtual locks for four of the five rotations spots. If Santana needs longer to get ready, as expected, Chris Schwinden and Chuck James are two candidates that could battle for the No. 5 spot.
Prospect Matt Harvey is likely starting the year in the minors to get more seasoning, but he could make his big-league debut this coming season. Jenrry Mejia is coming off Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to compete for a major league role right away.
Jeurys Familia is an arm likely headed for the bullpen long term.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes' fantasy fortune[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year deal Monday and the Cuban outfielder will begin his career in the states in the American League West. The $36 million is nice, but his home ballpark doesn't help his overall value, and certainly not his fantasy value.
ESPN.com's Eric Karabell writes Monday that Cespedes, while being a difficult projection with which to begin, loses some value in home park:
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Cespedes' home park hurts his value
Spoiler [+]
It's not only casual baseball fans who view the Oakland Athletics offseason as an unsolvable logic maze. Some rival talent evaluators puzzled and puzzled until their puzzlers were sore on Monday night, after word broke that the Athletics had signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million deal.
After all, Oakland traded two good young starting pitchers for prospects -- first Trevor Cahill and then Gio Gonzalez -- reducing their ability to contend with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels in the next couple of seasons. And now the Athletics have paid a premium to Cespedes, giving an unproven outfielder who is older than either Cahill or Gonzalez more money than they've committed to any player in their organization.
But there is common thread to all of it, and you can sum it up with four numbers: 2. 0. 1. 5.
As in the year 2015. Everything the Athletics are doing is being funneled into 2015, or thereabouts.
The earliest they could probably open a new San Jose ballpark, if the Commissioner's Office forces or negotiates with the San Francisco Giants to give up the territorial rights to that city, would be in 2015.
The final year of Cespedes' deal -- when the Athletics probably have the best chance of getting return on their investment -- will be 2015. They can't get elite veteran power hitters to sign with their organization, so they have signed an amateur with big-time power. "To me, what you're paying for is two years of development for him, as he makes his adjustments," said one general manager, "and two years of good production, if he is what they think he is."
The Athletics, who debut in our Future Power Rankings in the bottom third of the 30 teams partly because of their uncertain ballpark situation, have created a wave of prospects that could hit in a big way in 2015.
Jarrod Parker, who Oakland got in the Cahill deal, will probably be in his third or fourth full season by then. Sonny Gray, the right-hander taken in the first round last summer, may follow a similar path. Brad Peacock, who might be the most important piece from the Gio Gonzalez trade, is highly regarded by rival executives. "I think he's got a chance to be a special pitcher," said an NL evaluator on the day the deal was finished.
The Athletics have built similar blueprints in recent seasons only to blow up those plans. A year ago, they appeared to be riding into the future built on Brett Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez and others. But a year ago, they had hope that their ballpark situation would be resolved quickly enough for them to get a new home in 2013 or 2014, and because of the recurring delays, that timetable has been backed up -- and Oakland would've been faced with a situation in which Cahill and Gonzalez and Anderson would be on the verge of free agency in 2015, just as they hope to open their new park.
The reality is that it's very possible that if no hard plans are made for a ballpark and Oakland's stagnant situation continues to rot, the Athletics will again blow up the blueprint and back up the rebuilding timetable. The team really can't follow through until baseball officials follow through with assurances of settling the San Jose situation, one way or another.
Some notes on the Cespedes signing, from Justin Havens and J.B. Kritz of ESPN Stats and Info:
The Miami Marlins were outbid by about 50 percent in annual salary, as it turns out -- they offered $6 million a year for six years, rather than $9 million a year for four years -- and weren't very surprised that they missed out, writes Clark Spencer.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Clayton Kershaw is a 23-year-old with the maturity and wisdom of a 50-year-old.
• The time has come for Hanley Ramirez to impress his teammates, writes Mike Berardino.
• The Cleveland Indians signed Jon Garland to a minor-league deal.
• The Chicago Cubs are the leading bidders for Jorge Soler, writes Dave van Dyck.
• Part of the reason why some executives are leery of Johnny Damon, as Joel Sherman explains here, is that they fret about how he seems to be expanding his strike zone as he draws closer to 3,000 hits.
• Phil Hughes is much more fit, writes Kevin Kernan.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are swinging for a huge television deal, writes Matt Gelb.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Little progress has been made on a Ryan Zimmerman extension, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. Ike Davis says he's good to go.
3. The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees continue to haggle over the A.J. Burnett deal, writes Marc Carig.
4. A Minnesota Twins reliever was sent to Class AAA.
5. Jerry Dipoto is not eager to trade Bobby Abreu, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
6. If the Kansas City Royals added a veteran starter, says Dayton Moore, it would block an in-house candidate.
7. Some Detroit Tigers left-handers are getting an early start, writes Lynn Henning.
8. Roy Oswalt is not on the Reds' radar at the moment.
9. The Baltimore Orioles and Adam Jones have had preliminary extension talks.
10. David Ortiz settled his arbitration case with the Boston Red Sox. He's reached the stage of his career when the Red Sox will probably go year to year with him, and as soon as he shows marked decline in his performance, they'll probably turn the page.
11. Daniel Bard is ready to get cranked up in his effort to move into the rotation.
12. The Toronto Blue Jays signed Casey Janssen.
13. Wade Davis is taking trade rumors in stride, writes Roger Mooney.
14. A reliever is getting another chance with the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
After all, Oakland traded two good young starting pitchers for prospects -- first Trevor Cahill and then Gio Gonzalez -- reducing their ability to contend with the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels in the next couple of seasons. And now the Athletics have paid a premium to Cespedes, giving an unproven outfielder who is older than either Cahill or Gonzalez more money than they've committed to any player in their organization.
But there is common thread to all of it, and you can sum it up with four numbers: 2. 0. 1. 5.
As in the year 2015. Everything the Athletics are doing is being funneled into 2015, or thereabouts.
The earliest they could probably open a new San Jose ballpark, if the Commissioner's Office forces or negotiates with the San Francisco Giants to give up the territorial rights to that city, would be in 2015.
The final year of Cespedes' deal -- when the Athletics probably have the best chance of getting return on their investment -- will be 2015. They can't get elite veteran power hitters to sign with their organization, so they have signed an amateur with big-time power. "To me, what you're paying for is two years of development for him, as he makes his adjustments," said one general manager, "and two years of good production, if he is what they think he is."
The Athletics, who debut in our Future Power Rankings in the bottom third of the 30 teams partly because of their uncertain ballpark situation, have created a wave of prospects that could hit in a big way in 2015.
Jarrod Parker, who Oakland got in the Cahill deal, will probably be in his third or fourth full season by then. Sonny Gray, the right-hander taken in the first round last summer, may follow a similar path. Brad Peacock, who might be the most important piece from the Gio Gonzalez trade, is highly regarded by rival executives. "I think he's got a chance to be a special pitcher," said an NL evaluator on the day the deal was finished.
The Athletics have built similar blueprints in recent seasons only to blow up those plans. A year ago, they appeared to be riding into the future built on Brett Anderson, Cahill, Gonzalez and others. But a year ago, they had hope that their ballpark situation would be resolved quickly enough for them to get a new home in 2013 or 2014, and because of the recurring delays, that timetable has been backed up -- and Oakland would've been faced with a situation in which Cahill and Gonzalez and Anderson would be on the verge of free agency in 2015, just as they hope to open their new park.
The reality is that it's very possible that if no hard plans are made for a ballpark and Oakland's stagnant situation continues to rot, the Athletics will again blow up the blueprint and back up the rebuilding timetable. The team really can't follow through until baseball officials follow through with assurances of settling the San Jose situation, one way or another.
Some notes on the Cespedes signing, from Justin Havens and J.B. Kritz of ESPN Stats and Info:
- • Cespedes is a 26-year-old outfielder
• He hit .333 BA/.424 OBP/.667 SLG, 33 HR, 99 RBI in 90 games during 2010-11 season
• He was Cuba's starting center fielder in the 2009 World Baseball Classic (.458 BA in six games)
• He went 5-for-35, 1 HR, 0 BB, 10 K in Dominican Winter League
• He'll earn approximately $9 million per season in his four-year, $36M deal, with $6.5 million coming in 2012. That would make him the highest-paid player on the A's next season (about $500,000 more than Coco Crisp).
• Cespedes' $36 million contract represents more than 10 percent of the Athletics' franchise value and more than 50 percent of their opening day payroll last season. Forbes magazine valued the club at $307 million in March 2011.
• For Cespedes to earn his average annual value of about $9 million, he will need to produce somewhere between 1.9 and 2.2 WAR (according to FanGraphs). Some outfielders who fell in that range last season: Crisp, Nick Markakis, David DeJesus, Josh Willingham, Seth Smith.
The Miami Marlins were outbid by about 50 percent in annual salary, as it turns out -- they offered $6 million a year for six years, rather than $9 million a year for four years -- and weren't very surprised that they missed out, writes Clark Spencer.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Clayton Kershaw is a 23-year-old with the maturity and wisdom of a 50-year-old.
• The time has come for Hanley Ramirez to impress his teammates, writes Mike Berardino.
• The Cleveland Indians signed Jon Garland to a minor-league deal.
• The Chicago Cubs are the leading bidders for Jorge Soler, writes Dave van Dyck.
• Part of the reason why some executives are leery of Johnny Damon, as Joel Sherman explains here, is that they fret about how he seems to be expanding his strike zone as he draws closer to 3,000 hits.
• Phil Hughes is much more fit, writes Kevin Kernan.
• The Philadelphia Phillies are swinging for a huge television deal, writes Matt Gelb.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Little progress has been made on a Ryan Zimmerman extension, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. Ike Davis says he's good to go.
3. The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Yankees continue to haggle over the A.J. Burnett deal, writes Marc Carig.
4. A Minnesota Twins reliever was sent to Class AAA.
5. Jerry Dipoto is not eager to trade Bobby Abreu, writes Mike DiGiovanna.
6. If the Kansas City Royals added a veteran starter, says Dayton Moore, it would block an in-house candidate.
7. Some Detroit Tigers left-handers are getting an early start, writes Lynn Henning.
8. Roy Oswalt is not on the Reds' radar at the moment.
9. The Baltimore Orioles and Adam Jones have had preliminary extension talks.
10. David Ortiz settled his arbitration case with the Boston Red Sox. He's reached the stage of his career when the Red Sox will probably go year to year with him, and as soon as he shows marked decline in his performance, they'll probably turn the page.
11. Daniel Bard is ready to get cranked up in his effort to move into the rotation.
12. The Toronto Blue Jays signed Casey Janssen.
13. Wade Davis is taking trade rumors in stride, writes Roger Mooney.
14. A reliever is getting another chance with the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Cubs close to Soler deal?[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes may be on his way to Oakland, but the Chicago Cubs may still be on the verge of a deal with a notable Cuban outfielder.
Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune cites reports out of the Dominican Republic that say the Cubs are the favorite to land Soler and are willing to spend $27.5 million over three or four years.
Unlike Cespedes, the 20-year-old Soler hasn't been declared eligible to sign, but Gordon Wittenmyer says that approval might come within days.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Damon's expanding strike zone[/h3]
9:31AM ET
[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]
Johnny Damon's quest for 3,000 hits may be one reason the free agent outfielder is still looking for a job just a few days before the start of spring training.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to three executives who worry that Damon may be expanding his strike zone as he nears 3,000 hits. Damon's batting average dropped 10 points from 2010 to 2011, but his on-base average fell a notable 29 points to .326 from .355.
Damon, still 277 hits from 3,000, has built a reputation as a disciplined hitter, the type that draws attention from pennant-contending clubs.
The 38-year-old Damon admitted to being surprised when the Tampa Bay Rays elected not to re-sign him this winter. Damon has been linked to the Orioles, Athletics and Yankees in recent weeks, but the A's may no longer be interested after landing Yoenis Cespedes.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs eye Ramon Ortiz[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Ramon Ortiz | Cubs [/h5]
The Cubs are interested in offering pitcher Ramon Ortiz a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training camp, says Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Levine notes that Cubs president Theo Epstein wants the pitching staff to go 10 deep in starting pitcher candidates. One option could be the 38-year-old Ortiz, who was with the Cubs last season, splitting time between the big league club and Triple-A Iowa . He was 1-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 22 games with the Cubs.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Oswalt hoping for Texas[/h3]
9:00AM ET
[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]
If the Texas Rangers are to make a deal for free agent Roy Oswalt, GM Jon Daniels hinted over the weekend that the club will have to shed an existing contract. Reds GM Walt Jocketty thinks Oswalt is hoping for just that.
Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer the Reds have had no contact with Oswalt's agents in the last week. "I think he's waiting for Texas to clear money," Jocketty said.
Daniels tells ESPNDallas.com the organization was "a tick over" its payroll budget after agreeing to a deal with Mike Napoli for a reported $9.4 million.
The deal seems signal the end of the club's shopping for big-ticket items on the free-agent market. The Rangers would like to find a home for right-handed reliever Koji Uehara, who will earn $4 million this season, and that could free some cash for Oswalt
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can Nats and Zimmerman agree?[/h3]
8:37AM ET
[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]
The Washington Nationals were believed to be interested in Prince Fielder before the free agent first baseman found a $214 million home with the Detroit Tigers. That would seem to give the Nats some extra discretionary cash, some of which could be spent on an extension with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman, a free agent after the 2013 season, has often stated his desire to spend his entire career in D.C., but there have been no new recent developments regarding a contract extension, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Kilgore says Zimmerman has not changed his stance of making the start of spring training an informal deadline to table contract discussions, so the next few days could be pivotal. If and when the talks heat up, a point of comparison will be the eight-year, $160 million deal given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to Matt Kemp as well as the deals given to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki.
Zimmerman will make $12 million this season and $14 million in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]O's, Jones talk extension [/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Adam Jones | Orioles [/h5]
The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks about a contract extension with Adam Jones, but the more immediate task is to avoid an arbitration hearing with the outfielder scheduled for Friday, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
The 26-year-old Jones, who made $3.25 million in 2011, submitted a $7.4 million salary for next season after hitting .280 with 25 homers and 83 RBI. The Orioles countered with $5 million.
Jones was linked earlier this offseason to a possible blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves that never materialized.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can A's add Cespedes and Manny?[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Rays | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics became a far more compelling team Monday thanks to the deal for Yoenis Cespedes, and the acquisition of the Cuban outfielder apparently won't stall the pursuit of Manny Ramirez.
Even with the addition of Cespedes, Ramirez is "still on the board" in Oakland, a source tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Oakland seems to have emerged as a more plausible landing spot for Ramirez. Phil Rogers wrote last weekend that Ramirez is likely to sign with the A's since general manager Billy Beane almost certainly would try to deal him before the July 31 deadline if he showed he still can drive in runs.
Meanwhile, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette recently said the mercurial slugger wasn't a fit in Baltimore.
Before Ramirez can play for a new team, he will have to serve a 50-game suspension for failing a drug test.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Manny a no-risk option
9:47AM ET
[h5]Chicago Cubs [/h5]
Yoenis Cespedes may be on his way to Oakland, but the Chicago Cubs may still be on the verge of a deal with a notable Cuban outfielder.
Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune cites reports out of the Dominican Republic that say the Cubs are the favorite to land Soler and are willing to spend $27.5 million over three or four years.
Unlike Cespedes, the 20-year-old Soler hasn't been declared eligible to sign, but Gordon Wittenmyer says that approval might come within days.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Damon's expanding strike zone[/h3]
9:31AM ET
[h5]Johnny Damon | Rays [/h5]
Johnny Damon's quest for 3,000 hits may be one reason the free agent outfielder is still looking for a job just a few days before the start of spring training.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post talked to three executives who worry that Damon may be expanding his strike zone as he nears 3,000 hits. Damon's batting average dropped 10 points from 2010 to 2011, but his on-base average fell a notable 29 points to .326 from .355.
Damon, still 277 hits from 3,000, has built a reputation as a disciplined hitter, the type that draws attention from pennant-contending clubs.
The 38-year-old Damon admitted to being surprised when the Tampa Bay Rays elected not to re-sign him this winter. Damon has been linked to the Orioles, Athletics and Yankees in recent weeks, but the A's may no longer be interested after landing Yoenis Cespedes.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Cubs eye Ramon Ortiz[/h3]
9:15AM ET
[h5]Ramon Ortiz | Cubs [/h5]
The Cubs are interested in offering pitcher Ramon Ortiz a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training camp, says Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com.
Levine notes that Cubs president Theo Epstein wants the pitching staff to go 10 deep in starting pitcher candidates. One option could be the 38-year-old Ortiz, who was with the Cubs last season, splitting time between the big league club and Triple-A Iowa . He was 1-2 with a 4.36 ERA in 22 games with the Cubs.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Jocketty: Oswalt hoping for Texas[/h3]
9:00AM ET
[h5]Texas Rangers [/h5]
If the Texas Rangers are to make a deal for free agent Roy Oswalt, GM Jon Daniels hinted over the weekend that the club will have to shed an existing contract. Reds GM Walt Jocketty thinks Oswalt is hoping for just that.
Jocketty tells John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer the Reds have had no contact with Oswalt's agents in the last week. "I think he's waiting for Texas to clear money," Jocketty said.
Daniels tells ESPNDallas.com the organization was "a tick over" its payroll budget after agreeing to a deal with Mike Napoli for a reported $9.4 million.
The deal seems signal the end of the club's shopping for big-ticket items on the free-agent market. The Rangers would like to find a home for right-handed reliever Koji Uehara, who will earn $4 million this season, and that could free some cash for Oswalt
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can Nats and Zimmerman agree?[/h3]
8:37AM ET
[h5]Ryan Zimmerman | Nationals [/h5]
The Washington Nationals were believed to be interested in Prince Fielder before the free agent first baseman found a $214 million home with the Detroit Tigers. That would seem to give the Nats some extra discretionary cash, some of which could be spent on an extension with third baseman Ryan Zimmerman.
Zimmerman, a free agent after the 2013 season, has often stated his desire to spend his entire career in D.C., but there have been no new recent developments regarding a contract extension, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post.
Kilgore says Zimmerman has not changed his stance of making the start of spring training an informal deadline to table contract discussions, so the next few days could be pivotal. If and when the talks heat up, a point of comparison will be the eight-year, $160 million deal given by the Los Angeles Dodgers to Matt Kemp as well as the deals given to Milwaukee's Ryan Braun and the Rockies' Troy Tulowitzki.
Zimmerman will make $12 million this season and $14 million in 2013.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]O's, Jones talk extension [/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Adam Jones | Orioles [/h5]
The Baltimore Orioles have had preliminary talks about a contract extension with Adam Jones, but the more immediate task is to avoid an arbitration hearing with the outfielder scheduled for Friday, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun.
The 26-year-old Jones, who made $3.25 million in 2011, submitted a $7.4 million salary for next season after hitting .280 with 25 homers and 83 RBI. The Orioles countered with $5 million.
Jones was linked earlier this offseason to a possible blockbuster trade with the Atlanta Braves that never materialized.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Can A's add Cespedes and Manny?[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Rays | Interested: Athletics? [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics became a far more compelling team Monday thanks to the deal for Yoenis Cespedes, and the acquisition of the Cuban outfielder apparently won't stall the pursuit of Manny Ramirez.
Even with the addition of Cespedes, Ramirez is "still on the board" in Oakland, a source tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle.
Oakland seems to have emerged as a more plausible landing spot for Ramirez. Phil Rogers wrote last weekend that Ramirez is likely to sign with the A's since general manager Billy Beane almost certainly would try to deal him before the July 31 deadline if he showed he still can drive in runs.
Meanwhile, Orioles general manager Dan Duquette recently said the mercurial slugger wasn't a fit in Baltimore.
Before Ramirez can play for a new team, he will have to serve a 50-game suspension for failing a drug test.
- Doug Mittler
Manny a no-risk option
7:29AM ET
[h5]CBA ramifications [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The new baseball season will bring about a whole new set of guidelines. The bases are still 90 feet apart, but the ramifications of the new collective bargaining agreement are still being digested by front offices throughout the game.
Over the weekend, Joel Sherman of the New York Post pointed out one element of the CBA that could result in significant roster movement near the end of the spring training. Most free agents who have played at least six major league seasons and who have signed minor league contracts this offseason must either be put on the big league roster five days before the regular season or be given a $100,000 bonus to go to the minors and the right to opt out of their contract on June 1.
The union insisted on the provision to make sure that a veteran does not get stuck in the minors. Sherman notes that most teams will balk at paying the bonus, resulting in greater player movement in late March. That would explain, for example, why the New York Mets may have been less enthusiastic in their pursuit of Rick Ankiel and will instead wait to see who becomes avialable in the days leading up to Opening Day.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Mets rotation outlook[/h3]
7:01AM ET
[h5]Johan Santana | Mets [/h5]
The New York Mets are hoping to get left-handed ace Johan Santana back in 2012, and the southpaw played long toss from 175 feet Monday at Mets camp, tweets Brian Costa of the Wall Street Journal.
Dan Martin of the New York Post says Santana continues to build up arm strength and will throw off a mound Thursday or Friday.
Santana is still a little behind the other starters in spring training and still isn't likely to start the season on the active roster, but the club is hoping to get him about 25 starts in 2012.
Right-handers Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee, as well as left-hander Jonathon Niese are virtual locks for four of the five rotations spots. If Santana needs longer to get ready, as expected, Chris Schwinden and Chuck James are two candidates that could battle for the No. 5 spot.
Prospect Matt Harvey is likely starting the year in the minors to get more seasoning, but he could make his big-league debut this coming season. Jenrry Mejia is coming off Tommy John surgery and isn't likely to compete for a major league role right away.
Jeurys Familia is an arm likely headed for the bullpen long term.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Cespedes' fantasy fortune[/h3]
6:54AM ET
[h5]Oakland Athletics [/h5]
The Oakland Athletics signed Yoenis Cespedes to a four-year deal Monday and the Cuban outfielder will begin his career in the states in the American League West. The $36 million is nice, but his home ballpark doesn't help his overall value, and certainly not his fantasy value.
ESPN.com's Eric Karabell writes Monday that Cespedes, while being a difficult projection with which to begin, loses some value in home park:
- Jason A. Churchill
Cespedes' home park hurts his value
ESPN is doing the Future Power Rankings this year. Similar to something they've been doing for the NBA. Pretty interesting concept. Two competent dudes doing it with the help of that clown Jim Bowden.
Future Power Rankings methodology.
Numbers 30-21.
Future Power Rankings methodology.
Spoiler [+]
If you've been reading ESPN Insider's NBA coverage, you know that they've been doing Future Power Rankings for almost three years. We've run with the idea for MLB, but tweaked the process a little bit .
Like the NBA version, we asked our MLB experts, Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney, to rank all 30 franchises, from 1 to 30, in five categories. But because MLB organizations are run a bit differently than NBA clubs (and the leagues operate under different rules), the categories are different. For MLB they are:
Dan SzymborskiThe above pie chart breaks down the weight each category was given in our rankings.
• Majors: Quality of current big league roster
• Minors: Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
• Finances: How much money do they have available to spend?
• Management: Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
• Mobility: Do they have a lot of young, cheap players? Or old, immovable guys?
The average of the panelists' scores for each category are visible in the bar graphs for each team and are rounded to the nearest integer.
To come up with an overall score, we weighted the categories based on importance.
Major and minor league quality are given the most weight, finances and smarts are given 2/3 the weight, and mobility is given 1/3 the weight. So, for example, if everyone voted your team first in majors and minors, it would be worth 30 points, for finances and management that would be worth 20 points, and for mobility it would be 10.
The final scores are given on a scale from 0 to 100, representing a team's percentage of total possible points.
The scores and rankings are designed to reflect how well these clubs are set up for sustained success over the next five years.
Like the NBA version, we asked our MLB experts, Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney, to rank all 30 franchises, from 1 to 30, in five categories. But because MLB organizations are run a bit differently than NBA clubs (and the leagues operate under different rules), the categories are different. For MLB they are:
Dan SzymborskiThe above pie chart breaks down the weight each category was given in our rankings.
• Majors: Quality of current big league roster
• Minors: Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
• Finances: How much money do they have available to spend?
• Management: Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
• Mobility: Do they have a lot of young, cheap players? Or old, immovable guys?
The average of the panelists' scores for each category are visible in the bar graphs for each team and are rounded to the nearest integer.
To come up with an overall score, we weighted the categories based on importance.
Major and minor league quality are given the most weight, finances and smarts are given 2/3 the weight, and mobility is given 1/3 the weight. So, for example, if everyone voted your team first in majors and minors, it would be worth 30 points, for finances and management that would be worth 20 points, and for mobility it would be 10.
The final scores are given on a scale from 0 to 100, representing a team's percentage of total possible points.
The scores and rankings are designed to reflect how well these clubs are set up for sustained success over the next five years.
Numbers 30-21.
Spoiler [+]
If you're a fan of the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubsChicago Cubs, you're familiar with the phrease "Wait 'til next year!" But what about the year after, and the year after that? That's where ESPN Insider comes in.
[h4]CATEGORIES[/h4][table][tr][td]MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster[/td][/tr][tr][td]MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system[/td][/tr][tr][td]FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?[/td][/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff[/td][/tr][tr][td]MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?[/td][/tr][tr][td]For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.[/td][/tr][/table]
While the baseball world gears up for spring training, we've decided to take the long view and asked our three top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in attempt to measure how well each team is set up for the future.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
We will unveil the rankings 10 at a time, from Tuesday through Thursday, starting with the bottom 10 teams. The lower tier is filled with teams you might expect, such as the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles. The Astros might be in the worst shape at the major league level, but at least they've shed some big contracts in recent years. The O's have a bit more money, but they can't seem to develop any pitching. The Bucs? Well, even their lack of bucks can't change the fact that they have only one superstar to show for all of those years drafting in the top five.
So who's No. 30? It's time to find out.
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
[h4]CATEGORIES[/h4][table][tr][td]MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster[/td][/tr][tr][td]MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system[/td][/tr][tr][td]FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?[/td][/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff[/td][/tr][tr][td]MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?[/td][/tr][tr][td]For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.[/td][/tr][/table]
While the baseball world gears up for spring training, we've decided to take the long view and asked our three top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in attempt to measure how well each team is set up for the future.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
We will unveil the rankings 10 at a time, from Tuesday through Thursday, starting with the bottom 10 teams. The lower tier is filled with teams you might expect, such as the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles. The Astros might be in the worst shape at the major league level, but at least they've shed some big contracts in recent years. The O's have a bit more money, but they can't seem to develop any pitching. The Bucs? Well, even their lack of bucks can't change the fact that they have only one superstar to show for all of those years drafting in the top five.
So who's No. 30? It's time to find out.
-
- 21
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 22
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 23
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 24
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 25
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 26
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 27
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 28
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 29
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 30
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
ESPN is doing the Future Power Rankings this year. Similar to something they've been doing for the NBA. Pretty interesting concept. Two competent dudes doing it with the help of that clown Jim Bowden.
Future Power Rankings methodology.
Numbers 30-21.
Future Power Rankings methodology.
Spoiler [+]
If you've been reading ESPN Insider's NBA coverage, you know that they've been doing Future Power Rankings for almost three years. We've run with the idea for MLB, but tweaked the process a little bit .
Like the NBA version, we asked our MLB experts, Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney, to rank all 30 franchises, from 1 to 30, in five categories. But because MLB organizations are run a bit differently than NBA clubs (and the leagues operate under different rules), the categories are different. For MLB they are:
Dan SzymborskiThe above pie chart breaks down the weight each category was given in our rankings.
• Majors: Quality of current big league roster
• Minors: Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
• Finances: How much money do they have available to spend?
• Management: Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
• Mobility: Do they have a lot of young, cheap players? Or old, immovable guys?
The average of the panelists' scores for each category are visible in the bar graphs for each team and are rounded to the nearest integer.
To come up with an overall score, we weighted the categories based on importance.
Major and minor league quality are given the most weight, finances and smarts are given 2/3 the weight, and mobility is given 1/3 the weight. So, for example, if everyone voted your team first in majors and minors, it would be worth 30 points, for finances and management that would be worth 20 points, and for mobility it would be 10.
The final scores are given on a scale from 0 to 100, representing a team's percentage of total possible points.
The scores and rankings are designed to reflect how well these clubs are set up for sustained success over the next five years.
Like the NBA version, we asked our MLB experts, Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney, to rank all 30 franchises, from 1 to 30, in five categories. But because MLB organizations are run a bit differently than NBA clubs (and the leagues operate under different rules), the categories are different. For MLB they are:
Dan SzymborskiThe above pie chart breaks down the weight each category was given in our rankings.
• Majors: Quality of current big league roster
• Minors: Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system
• Finances: How much money do they have available to spend?
• Management: Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff
• Mobility: Do they have a lot of young, cheap players? Or old, immovable guys?
The average of the panelists' scores for each category are visible in the bar graphs for each team and are rounded to the nearest integer.
To come up with an overall score, we weighted the categories based on importance.
Major and minor league quality are given the most weight, finances and smarts are given 2/3 the weight, and mobility is given 1/3 the weight. So, for example, if everyone voted your team first in majors and minors, it would be worth 30 points, for finances and management that would be worth 20 points, and for mobility it would be 10.
The final scores are given on a scale from 0 to 100, representing a team's percentage of total possible points.
The scores and rankings are designed to reflect how well these clubs are set up for sustained success over the next five years.
Numbers 30-21.
Spoiler [+]
If you're a fan of the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubsChicago Cubs, you're familiar with the phrease "Wait 'til next year!" But what about the year after, and the year after that? That's where ESPN Insider comes in.
[h4]CATEGORIES[/h4][table][tr][td]MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster[/td][/tr][tr][td]MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system[/td][/tr][tr][td]FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?[/td][/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff[/td][/tr][tr][td]MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?[/td][/tr][tr][td]For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.[/td][/tr][/table]
While the baseball world gears up for spring training, we've decided to take the long view and asked our three top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in attempt to measure how well each team is set up for the future.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
We will unveil the rankings 10 at a time, from Tuesday through Thursday, starting with the bottom 10 teams. The lower tier is filled with teams you might expect, such as the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles. The Astros might be in the worst shape at the major league level, but at least they've shed some big contracts in recent years. The O's have a bit more money, but they can't seem to develop any pitching. The Bucs? Well, even their lack of bucks can't change the fact that they have only one superstar to show for all of those years drafting in the top five.
So who's No. 30? It's time to find out.
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
[h4]CATEGORIES[/h4][table][tr][td]MAJORS (full weight): Quality of current big league roster[/td][/tr][tr][td]MINORS (full weight): Quality and quantity of prospects in their farm system[/td][/tr][tr][td]FINANCE (2/3 weight): How much money do they have to spend?[/td][/tr][tr][td]MANAGEMENT (2/3 weight): Value and stability of ownership, front office and coaching staff[/td][/tr][tr][td]MOBILITY (1/3 weight): Do they have a lot of young, cheap players, or old immovable guys?[/td][/tr][tr][td]For a full breakdown of the MLB Future Power Rankings methodology, click here.[/td][/tr][/table]
While the baseball world gears up for spring training, we've decided to take the long view and asked our three top baseball analysts -- Jim Bowden, Keith Law and Buster Olney -- to rank all 30 teams in five different categories (see table) in attempt to measure how well each team is set up for the future.
The better your rank in a given category, the more points you get, and the average point scores from the three voters are available in the bar graphs accompanying each team's section, rounded to the nearest integer. We weighted the categories and then gave each team a score on scale of 1 to 100, with the score representing a team's percentage of total possible points. (For a detailed breakdown of the methodology used for the Future Power Rankings, click here.)
We will unveil the rankings 10 at a time, from Tuesday through Thursday, starting with the bottom 10 teams. The lower tier is filled with teams you might expect, such as the Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles. The Astros might be in the worst shape at the major league level, but at least they've shed some big contracts in recent years. The O's have a bit more money, but they can't seem to develop any pitching. The Bucs? Well, even their lack of bucks can't change the fact that they have only one superstar to show for all of those years drafting in the top five.
So who's No. 30? It's time to find out.
-
- 21
LAST SEASON: 96-66 (first place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Despite the departure of Prince Fielder and the pending suspension of Ryan Braun, this club has the pitching depth to contend in the wide open NL Central in 2012. However, things get murky next winter, when both Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum are eligible for free agency.
It's unlikely that Milwaukee can afford to keep both right-handers (or even one), and its farm system, while improving, is still shallow. Throw in the fact that the Brewers get very little offensive production from first base, center field, catcher and shortstop, and this is a team in long-term limbo. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Brewers gave up a lot to get Greinke, so they better find a way to keep him. Extending Greinke is essential to the Brewers' success in the next five years. Currently their lineup is too right-handed, so that will need to be addressed sooner rather than later. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 22
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fifth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Marlins generated a lot of hype this winter with the signings of Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Heath Bell, but the long-term outlook is not completely positive.
While their farm system has recently produced slugger Mike Stanton, there isn't really much more on the horizon. And Josh Johnson, the ace of their staff, has averaged just 119 innings per year since 2006, which leaves their pitching in question. The club should compete for a playoff spot in 2012, but ownership has never shown a commitment to building a sustained winner. Until it does, there will always be reason to be skeptical about the Marlins' future. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With Stanton, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez and Hanley Ramirez, the Marlins are set on the corners. But they need to upgrade at catcher, second base and center field through the draft and international signings. Stanton and Morrison are poised to hit arbitration and free agency around the same time, and the club must manage this situation delicately. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 23
LAST SEASON: 74-88 (third place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The A's uncertain ballpark situation is a cloud that has been hanging over the franchise for years, and they are almost certainly going to be one of the worst teams in baseball in 2012. So why don't they rank lower? Because they fortified their farm system this winter with the trades of Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and have one of the better collections of young arms around.
Further, they have virtually no dead weight on their roster, which means they are well positioned to push forward in the next five years. The AL West will belong to the Angels and Rangers for the next couple of seasons, but the A's (and Mariners) will be lurking in 2014. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With their rebuilding already under way, the A's will probably draft within the top three slots over the next few years; it's crucial they do not miss on those picks. A move to a new stadium in San Jose, will give this financially strapped club a much needed injection of revenue. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 24
LAST SEASON: 72-90 (fourth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
While the Bucs hovered around .500 into August of 2011, their collapse down the stretch showed there is still much work to be done. The team has not been shy about spending lots of money in the draft, but thus far has not produced any impact players other than Andrew McCutchen.
Between Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon, the Pirates could have two top-of-the-rotation starters arriving in the next couple of years, but it's unclear where the runs are going to come from. And so far, Pittsburgh has been unsuccessful in signing McCutchen to a long-term deal, leading to speculation in rival front offices that the Pirates may have to consider moving the All-Star center fielder sometime in the next calendar year. Pittsburgh is headed in the right direction, but the turnaround is taking longer than anticipated. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
It seems like only yesterday that McCutchen was seen as a top prospect. Now the Bucs must decide if they will sign him to a Jay Bruce-like extension (six years, $51 million) or trade him for prospects. If they keep drafting like they have in recent years, their improvement can continue. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 25
LAST SEASON: 63-99 (fifth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
After two straight division titles in 2009 and 2010, things got ugly for the Twins in 2011, who posted their lowest winning percentage since 1995. Injuries have compromised the careers of club cornerstones Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, who are both signed to enormous contracts that will keep them in Minnesota through 2018 and 2013, respectively.
Those deals are almost immovable, which means interim GM Terry Ryan is limited with what else he can so, as those two players will be paid a total of $37 million in each of the next two seasons. If either player is able to recover their MVP form, this ranking will be much higher next year. But without Mauer and Morneau playing at a high level, this team is a few years away. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Twins have always done a nice job of developing reliable mid-rotation starters, but they don't have anyone at or near the major league level who can dominate. Their staff finished last in the AL in strikeouts last year, and Minny can begin the overhaul process by dealing Carl Pavano, Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker for any kind young arms it can find. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 26
LAST SEASON: 77-85 (fourth place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Maybe the most laughable line delivered by any baseball executive over the past decade came from Mets owner Fred Wilpon, who told reporters that the pending Madoff case wouldn't affect the way the team did its baseball business. Except at the time Wilpon said it, he wasn't kidding, because he either couldn't or didn't foresee the way the litigation would wreck the Mets' cash flow.
They didn't bid to keep Jose Reyes in this offseason, and neither did they make any other substantial acquistions. As Adam Rubin of ESPN New York.com reported, the Mets' owners have affected the greatest single-season reduction in payroll in baseball history. The situation cannot get better until there is a resolution in the Madoff case, in whatever direction this takes the Mets -- either to a final accounting of debt that will enable the Wilpons to take their payroll forward, or through the sale of the team. Until that happens, Mets fans will have to wallow in inertia, near the bottom of an extremely competitive NL East. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though it would be an extremely unpopular move, trading David Wright must be a consideration. Problem is, he has a 2013 option on his contract that disappears if he is traded this year. The Mets should hope the new, shorter fences at Citi Field will help Wright's power numbers, and then look to trade him next winter once they have picked up his option and his trade value has increased. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 27
LAST SEASON: 80-82 (second place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This probably seems a bit low for Cleveland, a team that stayed in the AL Central race for much of last season and some see as a darkhorse in 2012. Problem is, that speaks more to their weak division than to the Tribe's overall quality.
Catcher Carlos Santana is set for superstardom and shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera is another fine young player, but the Tribe lacks impact talent at a number of spots on the diamond, doesn't have much talent on the farm that is close to helping, nor does it have the money needed to bring in top free agents. If there was a greater degree of certainty regarding Ubaldo Jimenez' ability to recapture his 2010 form, this club would rank higher, but without that, the Indians are in shaky territory. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
With the exception of last year's draft, the Indians' farm system has gone backward. Having traded two of their top pitching prospects (Drew Pomeranz and Alex White) for Jimenez, they must figure out what has gone wrong for him in order to justify the price they paid. Without Jimenez at top form, they can't compete for a playoff spot. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 28
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Things are shaking up on the South Side, as GM Kenny Williams has finally decided to rebuild. Even though the Sox won 79 games last season, the club let Mark Buehrle leave as a free agent, and traded outfielder Carlos Quentin and closer Sergio Santos for much-needed prospects.
Despite those imports, Chicago still had the lowest farm system score among our voters, and the departure of three key players mean contention is unlikely this year. Fans should be pleased to see the team finally committed to the future, but things could get ugly in the next couple of seasons. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Chicago's rebuild commenced this offseason, as Quentin, Buehrle and Santos are gone. But will they totally commit to a full rebuild and go at it full bore? They should deal Paul Konerko, Adam Dunn and A.J. Pierzynski for whatever they can get, although at this point Konerko is the only one with any real trade value. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 29
LAST SEASON: 56-106 (sixth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
New Astros owner Jim Crane grew up in St. Louis and was a fan of the Cardinals, sometimes caddying as a teenager for members of the Cardinals team. His understanding of the history of that franchise will probably serve he and general manager Jeffrey Luhnow well, because the Astros will follow the same path once blazed by Branch Rickey when he ran the Cardinals in the 1930s. It's all about building the farm system, and according to rival executives, the work that needs is total reconstruction.
Former GM Ed Wade did leave a modest core of prospects for Luhnow to build around, and Wade did the heaviest, ugliest work of stripping down Houston's roster of its most expensive players, such as Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn. Carlos Lee is entering the final year of the six-year, $100 million deal he signed before the 2007 season, and Wandy Rodriguez is the only player signed for 2013. The slate is clean for Crane and Luhnow to build a new Houston tradition, which will probably take years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Astros are building from scratch, and that starts with a complete overhaul and upgrade of the scouting department. In time, that should upgrade the farm system, but signing some mid-level free agents to trade for prospects at the June 31 deadline would accelerate that upgrade. -- Jim Bowden
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- 30
LAST SEASON: 69-93 (fifth place in AL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This will be the 15th season since the Orioles last appeared in the playoffs, but there are few signs that they are moving in the right direction, or that they have established the kind of organizational bedrock needed to build in baseball's toughest division. Dan Duquette has replaced Andy MacPhail as general manager, and the list of what he needs is long: Frontline pitching, more pitching, even more pitching and a wave of position prospects.
It appears the Orioles will get little return from the $20 million they will pay Brian Roberts over the next two seasons, and Adam Jones will be eligible for free agency after the 2012 season. What needs to happen for the Orioles is a complete turnaround from Brian Matusz, who had a disastrous 2011 season, and more development from Zach Britton. Prayers could be useful, too. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
What used to be a Baltimore staple in the 1970s and '80s has been difficult to replicate in recent years. The Orioles' starting pitching staff needs to be rebuilt. Baltimore's No. 1 pick in 2011, Dylan Bundy, offers a good start. The Orioles must continue to develop pitching from within, and even consider trading Adam Jones for arms if necessary. -- Jim Bowden
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Figured the Cards wouldnt be that low......Our farm system is awesome now, and we have pitchers, hitters and stable owners in place.......cards should be top 10, if not top 3-5.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Figured the Cards wouldnt be that low......Our farm system is awesome now, and we have pitchers, hitters and stable owners in place.......cards should be top 10, if not top 3-5.
- 17,523
- 23,265
- Joined
- Nov 11, 2007
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/2/14/2796560/the-ten-worst-swings-of-the-2011-season
That gif of the Happy Gilmore swing in the comment section has me dying.
That gif of the Happy Gilmore swing in the comment section has me dying.
- 17,523
- 23,265
- Joined
- Nov 11, 2007
http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/2/14/2796560/the-ten-worst-swings-of-the-2011-season
That gif of the Happy Gilmore swing in the comment section has me dying.
That gif of the Happy Gilmore swing in the comment section has me dying.
- 1,917
- 10
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2007
Those gifs have me laughing especially the Tim Hudson. Tommy Hanson is changing his delivery this year he owns David Wright.
I've seen more nasty swing and miss pitches by Venters & Kimbrel jeez the Braves pitching is filled with great staff.
I've seen more nasty swing and miss pitches by Venters & Kimbrel jeez the Braves pitching is filled with great staff.
- 1,917
- 10
- Joined
- Jan 22, 2007
Those gifs have me laughing especially the Tim Hudson. Tommy Hanson is changing his delivery this year he owns David Wright.
I've seen more nasty swing and miss pitches by Venters & Kimbrel jeez the Braves pitching is filled with great staff.
I've seen more nasty swing and miss pitches by Venters & Kimbrel jeez the Braves pitching is filled with great staff.
Future Power Rankings: 20-11.
Royals ready for challenge?
Projecting the sophmore class.
Spoiler [+]
[*]
[*]11
Kansas City Royals
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fourth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
For years we've been hearing about how the Royals are on the verge of competing. That time may finally be upon us, and they are the highest-ranked AL Central club on this list. With Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, K.C. has one of the better young lineups around, and young arms such as Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb are almost ready to make a big impact.
While they are never going to be huge free-agent spenders, there aren't any albatrosses on this club, which means GM Dayton Moore can pick his spots to spend to fill holes. Believe it or not, Kansas City is extremely close to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1985. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
After years of rebuilding and painstakingly nurturing the farm system, the Royals have the position players to win within the next five years. But which pitching prospects will emerge? If Montgomery and Lamb don't show ace stuff soon, Moore should package some prospects for a proven top-of-the-rotation starter. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 95-67 (first place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There probably isn't a team in baseball that is a more clear-cut favorite in its division than the Tigers in 2012. After adding Prince Fielder, they should be able to slug their way to another AL Central title. However, despite the presence of Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, there are some questions about this team beyond 2013. Not only is it incredibly top-heavy, but the farm system lacks impact talent beyond right-hander JacobTurner and third baseman Nick Castellanos.
As we learned this winter, owner Mike Ilitch is not afraid to spend to win, and as long as he's around and Cabrera, Fielder and Verlander are in their primes, it's hard to see this club falling out of contention. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
As currently constructed, the Tigers are in position to compete for the next few years, and they need to win now. But they'll have to be willing to trade top minor leaguers when necessary. And it will be necessary, as the infield defense needs plenty of improvement. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There isn't much talent on the North Side right now, but there is still reason to be excited. The Cubs just brought in a group of execs (led by team president Theo Epstein) who helped the Red Sox break their 86-year title drought, and Epstein & Co. have already begun the process of shedding the dead weight on the Cubs' roster.
Based on how well Epstein was able to build a farm system when he was Boston's GM, it's easy to foresee success in Chicago, particularly since the Ricketts family will give him money to spend once the team is ready to compete. Don't expect a miracle in 2012, but this team is already on track for success. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
How do Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer replicate the development machine that produced Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis? Stay the course and don't deviate with free agents until they're ready to win. Fans will need patience. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 80-81 (third place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
It's one thing to get the No. 1 pick in the draft in a year when there's an obvious future All-Star available. It's quite another to get that pick two years in a row and earn the right to take once-in-a-generation players in consecutive seasons. That's what happened to the Nats with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and both appear to be as good as advertised.
If Strasburg can prove he's healthy for a full season after missing most of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Harper builds on his fabulous minor league debut, this team could quickly become a powerhouse. Of the teams outside the top 10, the Nats probably have the best chance of being in the top five of these rankings a year from now. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Manager Davey Johnson is 69 years old and the Nationals should establish an heir apparent. They could follow the Cardinals and White Sox and hire an unproven manager or go get a known commodity such as Terry Francona. They also could groom an up-and-coming onetime minor league skipper, such as Randy Knorr. Whatever they do, it's crucial they bring in someone who has the respect of Strasburg and Harper and can get the most out of them. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 73-89 (fourth place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Reds and Rockies are in a virtual tie in our scoring system, with the former getting a slight edge by decimal points. There are two really good reasons to be excited about Colorado's future: shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Both are just entering their primes, signed at least through 2017, and among the best players in baseball at their respective positions.
Few teams can boast a pair of position cornerstones as good as these two, and they should keep Colorado relevant for the next five years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
He has been the face of the franchise for more than a decade, but Todd Helton is nearing the end of his storied career and his eventual replacement at first base is a concern. Getting power from a power position is crucial for a team playing at Coors Field. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
GM Walt Jocketty deserves some credit. He went into the offseason fully aware of the fact that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were likely leaving the division, and he decided to go for broke, trading a number of prospects to San Diego for Mat Latos, who will anchor Cincy's staff.
But Joey Votto is signed through only 2013, and will almost certainly be too rich for the Reds when he hits free agency, which means their championship window will be short. The upcoming season might be the Reds' best hope for a while, so fans had better enjoy it. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Reds can't afford to let Votto walk as a free agent and only get draft picks in return. They should trade him next offseason for a huge package, which could restock the farm system after emptying it to get Latos and Sean Marshall. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 86-76 (second place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Great pitching can mask a lot of deficiencies, and the Giants have plenty of both. They took a big gamble in July when they traded top prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for pending free agent Carlos Beltran in hopes of a repeat. Beltran was fantastic for San Fran, but the Giants still came up short.
Now they're without their best pitching prospect, Beltran is in St. Louis, Matt Cain is set to be a free agent next winter and Tim Lincecum the year after that. The Giants will contend this year, but they are a club that could see its ranking change significantly in the next year or two if they can't keep their top two starters in town. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though they were able to extend ace Lincecum this offseason for two more years, the Giants still must somehow sign both him and Cain to long-term contracts. Because they have pitching at the big league level they need to focus on drafting developing position players to pair with Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 67-95 (fourth place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Like the A's, the Mariners are well aware that they aren't going to compete with the Rangers and Angels the next couple of years. However, Seattle is very slowly building a future contender.
With Ichiro Suzuki's contract finally set to expire after this season, they have less than $40 million committed for 2013, and even less beyond that. In other words, while young arms such as Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are making their way to the majors, GM Jack Zduriencik should have the cash needed to go shopping for a big-time bat or two to pair with Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Mariners' farm system is loaded with pitching prospects. However, outside of Montero, Ackley and Justin Smoak, they are short of position players and must develop more in their system or trade for more. Acquiring Montero was a step in the right direction. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 82-79 (third place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This ranking is a bit of a leap of faith, as it's assumed throughout the industry that the Dodgers' next owner will come in looking to spend. That new owner will also get the chance to negotiate a new cable deal, which should be one of the richest in the game.
The Dodgers already have Matt Kemp, arguably the best all-around player in baseball, signed through 2019, and Clayton Kershaw, the best young pitcher in the game, whom they are expected to lock up as well. Once the ownership situation is settled, prepare for some moving and shaking at Chavez Ravine. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Clearly the biggest issue facing the Dodgers is the new incoming ownership that faces a multitude of problems, which include improving Dodger Stadium and, more importantly, signing Kershaw to a long-term deal. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place in NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The good news for the Padres is that they have an excellent farm system, which was given a huge injection of talent with the Mat Latos and Mike Adams trades. The bad news is that there isn't much else in terms of big league talent and, almost as importantly, cash.
Expectations are low for 2012, and new GM Josh Byrnes should have more time to turn things around here than he was given in Arizona. But he and his player-development staff must figure out how to turn their plethora of prospects into major league contributors. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Finances continue to be the main issue for the Padres. Their small-market status dictates they rely on a superior farm system and trade players before they hit free agency, like they did with Latos this winter. Pitching and defense should remain their focus in player development, taking advantage of spacious Petco Park. -- Jim Bowden
Kansas City Royals
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fourth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
For years we've been hearing about how the Royals are on the verge of competing. That time may finally be upon us, and they are the highest-ranked AL Central club on this list. With Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, K.C. has one of the better young lineups around, and young arms such as Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb are almost ready to make a big impact.
While they are never going to be huge free-agent spenders, there aren't any albatrosses on this club, which means GM Dayton Moore can pick his spots to spend to fill holes. Believe it or not, Kansas City is extremely close to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1985. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
After years of rebuilding and painstakingly nurturing the farm system, the Royals have the position players to win within the next five years. But which pitching prospects will emerge? If Montgomery and Lamb don't show ace stuff soon, Moore should package some prospects for a proven top-of-the-rotation starter. -- Jim Bowden
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- 12
LAST SEASON: 95-67 (first place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There probably isn't a team in baseball that is a more clear-cut favorite in its division than the Tigers in 2012. After adding Prince Fielder, they should be able to slug their way to another AL Central title. However, despite the presence of Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, there are some questions about this team beyond 2013. Not only is it incredibly top-heavy, but the farm system lacks impact talent beyond right-hander JacobTurner and third baseman Nick Castellanos.
As we learned this winter, owner Mike Ilitch is not afraid to spend to win, and as long as he's around and Cabrera, Fielder and Verlander are in their primes, it's hard to see this club falling out of contention. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
As currently constructed, the Tigers are in position to compete for the next few years, and they need to win now. But they'll have to be willing to trade top minor leaguers when necessary. And it will be necessary, as the infield defense needs plenty of improvement. -- Jim Bowden
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- 13
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There isn't much talent on the North Side right now, but there is still reason to be excited. The Cubs just brought in a group of execs (led by team president Theo Epstein) who helped the Red Sox break their 86-year title drought, and Epstein & Co. have already begun the process of shedding the dead weight on the Cubs' roster.
Based on how well Epstein was able to build a farm system when he was Boston's GM, it's easy to foresee success in Chicago, particularly since the Ricketts family will give him money to spend once the team is ready to compete. Don't expect a miracle in 2012, but this team is already on track for success. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
How do Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer replicate the development machine that produced Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis? Stay the course and don't deviate with free agents until they're ready to win. Fans will need patience. -- Jim Bowden
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- 14
LAST SEASON: 80-81 (third place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
It's one thing to get the No. 1 pick in the draft in a year when there's an obvious future All-Star available. It's quite another to get that pick two years in a row and earn the right to take once-in-a-generation players in consecutive seasons. That's what happened to the Nats with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and both appear to be as good as advertised.
If Strasburg can prove he's healthy for a full season after missing most of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Harper builds on his fabulous minor league debut, this team could quickly become a powerhouse. Of the teams outside the top 10, the Nats probably have the best chance of being in the top five of these rankings a year from now. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Manager Davey Johnson is 69 years old and the Nationals should establish an heir apparent. They could follow the Cardinals and White Sox and hire an unproven manager or go get a known commodity such as Terry Francona. They also could groom an up-and-coming onetime minor league skipper, such as Randy Knorr. Whatever they do, it's crucial they bring in someone who has the respect of Strasburg and Harper and can get the most out of them. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 15
LAST SEASON: 73-89 (fourth place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Reds and Rockies are in a virtual tie in our scoring system, with the former getting a slight edge by decimal points. There are two really good reasons to be excited about Colorado's future: shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Both are just entering their primes, signed at least through 2017, and among the best players in baseball at their respective positions.
Few teams can boast a pair of position cornerstones as good as these two, and they should keep Colorado relevant for the next five years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
He has been the face of the franchise for more than a decade, but Todd Helton is nearing the end of his storied career and his eventual replacement at first base is a concern. Getting power from a power position is crucial for a team playing at Coors Field. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 16
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
GM Walt Jocketty deserves some credit. He went into the offseason fully aware of the fact that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were likely leaving the division, and he decided to go for broke, trading a number of prospects to San Diego for Mat Latos, who will anchor Cincy's staff.
But Joey Votto is signed through only 2013, and will almost certainly be too rich for the Reds when he hits free agency, which means their championship window will be short. The upcoming season might be the Reds' best hope for a while, so fans had better enjoy it. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Reds can't afford to let Votto walk as a free agent and only get draft picks in return. They should trade him next offseason for a huge package, which could restock the farm system after emptying it to get Latos and Sean Marshall. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 17
LAST SEASON: 86-76 (second place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Great pitching can mask a lot of deficiencies, and the Giants have plenty of both. They took a big gamble in July when they traded top prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for pending free agent Carlos Beltran in hopes of a repeat. Beltran was fantastic for San Fran, but the Giants still came up short.
Now they're without their best pitching prospect, Beltran is in St. Louis, Matt Cain is set to be a free agent next winter and Tim Lincecum the year after that. The Giants will contend this year, but they are a club that could see its ranking change significantly in the next year or two if they can't keep their top two starters in town. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though they were able to extend ace Lincecum this offseason for two more years, the Giants still must somehow sign both him and Cain to long-term contracts. Because they have pitching at the big league level they need to focus on drafting developing position players to pair with Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 18
LAST SEASON: 67-95 (fourth place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Like the A's, the Mariners are well aware that they aren't going to compete with the Rangers and Angels the next couple of years. However, Seattle is very slowly building a future contender.
With Ichiro Suzuki's contract finally set to expire after this season, they have less than $40 million committed for 2013, and even less beyond that. In other words, while young arms such as Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are making their way to the majors, GM Jack Zduriencik should have the cash needed to go shopping for a big-time bat or two to pair with Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Mariners' farm system is loaded with pitching prospects. However, outside of Montero, Ackley and Justin Smoak, they are short of position players and must develop more in their system or trade for more. Acquiring Montero was a step in the right direction. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 19
LAST SEASON: 82-79 (third place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This ranking is a bit of a leap of faith, as it's assumed throughout the industry that the Dodgers' next owner will come in looking to spend. That new owner will also get the chance to negotiate a new cable deal, which should be one of the richest in the game.
The Dodgers already have Matt Kemp, arguably the best all-around player in baseball, signed through 2019, and Clayton Kershaw, the best young pitcher in the game, whom they are expected to lock up as well. Once the ownership situation is settled, prepare for some moving and shaking at Chavez Ravine. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Clearly the biggest issue facing the Dodgers is the new incoming ownership that faces a multitude of problems, which include improving Dodger Stadium and, more importantly, signing Kershaw to a long-term deal. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 20
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place in NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The good news for the Padres is that they have an excellent farm system, which was given a huge injection of talent with the Mat Latos and Mike Adams trades. The bad news is that there isn't much else in terms of big league talent and, almost as importantly, cash.
Expectations are low for 2012, and new GM Josh Byrnes should have more time to turn things around here than he was given in Arizona. But he and his player-development staff must figure out how to turn their plethora of prospects into major league contributors. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Finances continue to be the main issue for the Padres. Their small-market status dictates they rely on a superior farm system and trade players before they hit free agency, like they did with Latos this winter. Pitching and defense should remain their focus in player development, taking advantage of spacious Petco Park. -- Jim Bowden
Royals ready for challenge?
Spoiler [+]
The Detroit Tigers were the overwhelming favorites in the American League Central three weeks ago. Then, with the Prince Fielder signing, they upgraded to the point that it clearly makes no sense to pick anyone else in the division.
Meanwhile, a little less than 800 miles to the southwest, the Kansas City Royals are the flavor of the month when it comes to young, low-budget teams doing things the right way. Through a combination of impressive drafts and aggressive work in the international market, the Royals' farm system became the envy of baseball. In 2011, we began to see much of that talent surface at the big league level, and many envision the club having a good shot at its first .500 season since 2003 as part of a progression that would eventually bring the club its first playoff appearance since 1985 -- when less than half of the current team's 40-man roster had been born.
There is no question that the team is improving, as evidenced by its spot in Insider's Future Power Rankings. The fact that the Royals are on the upswing is not up for debate. What's fair game, however, is to question whether they can take that second step and become true playoff contenders. Do they have the goods to do it? And if so, when? People in the industry are divided on both questions.
A quick survey of scouts and team officials generated an average prediction of 78 wins for the team in 2012, but there's not as much confidence as some might expect in Kansas City's ability to make that second, more difficult jump. "There are a lot of reasons to wonder if they're going to bring it all together in the end," one American League official said.
There is little doubt that the club is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut. In 2011, the team was sixth in the American League in runs, and there is every reason to believe things will go up from there, as the projected 2012 lineup is exclusively players either in their prime or still years from it. "They are going to have a beast of a lineup by 2013," one scout said. "Eric Hosmer is going to be an MVP candidate, and I can argue that there are four or five players who will be getting better over the next three years."
The holdup, as it is with most teams, is pitching. "Tell me right now, how are they going to take a big step forward when they are throwing Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen and whatever else sticks to the wall at you?" queried a National League official. "I just don't see it, and I don't see the pieces in the minors to fix it."
This is where the unpredictability and incredible attrition among pitching prospects rears its ugly head. Entering the 2011 season, the Royals had a quartet of left-handed starting pitchers worthy of anybody's top 100 prospect list, but a year later, they're mostly question marks.
• Chris Dwyer: Posted a 5.60 ERA at Double-A as command and control faltered.
• Danny Duffy: Reached the big leagues but had a 5.64 ERA as he struggled with mechanics.
• John Lamb: Tommy John surgery.
• Mike Montgomery: 5.32 ERA at Triple-A; hasn't been really good since the first half of the 2010 season.
Those four were a big part of the answer to the Royals' problems 12 months ago, and now they provide no guarantees. "The trade for Vince Mazzaro didn't work out, they've been forced to sign Bruce Chen to a two-year deal just to have some assurances, they're trying Aaron Crow as a starter when he couldn't do that in the minors, and it just shows how finding pitching is a tough deal," said an American League assistant general manager.
The biggest problem for the Royals just might be a matter of lining up windows. As a small-market club, players will be leaving via free agency, and to perfectly match up final years with prospects reaching their abilities is a daunting task. "Run through this for a second and just step back and think about it," said one team official. "I love their position players, but they're going to get expensive quickly. Alex Gordon leaves in two years and Joakim Soria is gone, and then they lose a guy who could be a workhorse in Hochevar in three years and all of a sudden it's uh-oh time. They have some timelines that aren't matching up right now, and that's what I'd be concerned about."
This is not designed to rain on anyone's parade, and the Royals' best bet between players still developing and players not leaving for greener pastures is the 2014 season. It's easy and fun to root for the Davids of the world as they battle baseball's Goliaths. But teams like the Tampa Bay Rays are still the exception, not the rule, and while there are plenty of futures to dream on, very few of them actually come true. Still, it's a good time to be excited in Kansas City -- just be realistic.
"There is no question that is going to be a challenge for them to become a playoff contender," said one front-office member of a consistently losing club. "But I'll tell you right now, I'd swap places with them in a second."
Meanwhile, a little less than 800 miles to the southwest, the Kansas City Royals are the flavor of the month when it comes to young, low-budget teams doing things the right way. Through a combination of impressive drafts and aggressive work in the international market, the Royals' farm system became the envy of baseball. In 2011, we began to see much of that talent surface at the big league level, and many envision the club having a good shot at its first .500 season since 2003 as part of a progression that would eventually bring the club its first playoff appearance since 1985 -- when less than half of the current team's 40-man roster had been born.
There is no question that the team is improving, as evidenced by its spot in Insider's Future Power Rankings. The fact that the Royals are on the upswing is not up for debate. What's fair game, however, is to question whether they can take that second step and become true playoff contenders. Do they have the goods to do it? And if so, when? People in the industry are divided on both questions.
A quick survey of scouts and team officials generated an average prediction of 78 wins for the team in 2012, but there's not as much confidence as some might expect in Kansas City's ability to make that second, more difficult jump. "There are a lot of reasons to wonder if they're going to bring it all together in the end," one American League official said.
There is little doubt that the club is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut. In 2011, the team was sixth in the American League in runs, and there is every reason to believe things will go up from there, as the projected 2012 lineup is exclusively players either in their prime or still years from it. "They are going to have a beast of a lineup by 2013," one scout said. "Eric Hosmer is going to be an MVP candidate, and I can argue that there are four or five players who will be getting better over the next three years."
The holdup, as it is with most teams, is pitching. "Tell me right now, how are they going to take a big step forward when they are throwing Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen and whatever else sticks to the wall at you?" queried a National League official. "I just don't see it, and I don't see the pieces in the minors to fix it."
This is where the unpredictability and incredible attrition among pitching prospects rears its ugly head. Entering the 2011 season, the Royals had a quartet of left-handed starting pitchers worthy of anybody's top 100 prospect list, but a year later, they're mostly question marks.
• Chris Dwyer: Posted a 5.60 ERA at Double-A as command and control faltered.
• Danny Duffy: Reached the big leagues but had a 5.64 ERA as he struggled with mechanics.
• John Lamb: Tommy John surgery.
• Mike Montgomery: 5.32 ERA at Triple-A; hasn't been really good since the first half of the 2010 season.
Those four were a big part of the answer to the Royals' problems 12 months ago, and now they provide no guarantees. "The trade for Vince Mazzaro didn't work out, they've been forced to sign Bruce Chen to a two-year deal just to have some assurances, they're trying Aaron Crow as a starter when he couldn't do that in the minors, and it just shows how finding pitching is a tough deal," said an American League assistant general manager.
The biggest problem for the Royals just might be a matter of lining up windows. As a small-market club, players will be leaving via free agency, and to perfectly match up final years with prospects reaching their abilities is a daunting task. "Run through this for a second and just step back and think about it," said one team official. "I love their position players, but they're going to get expensive quickly. Alex Gordon leaves in two years and Joakim Soria is gone, and then they lose a guy who could be a workhorse in Hochevar in three years and all of a sudden it's uh-oh time. They have some timelines that aren't matching up right now, and that's what I'd be concerned about."
This is not designed to rain on anyone's parade, and the Royals' best bet between players still developing and players not leaving for greener pastures is the 2014 season. It's easy and fun to root for the Davids of the world as they battle baseball's Goliaths. But teams like the Tampa Bay Rays are still the exception, not the rule, and while there are plenty of futures to dream on, very few of them actually come true. Still, it's a good time to be excited in Kansas City -- just be realistic.
"There is no question that is going to be a challenge for them to become a playoff contender," said one front-office member of a consistently losing club. "But I'll tell you right now, I'd swap places with them in a second."
Projecting the sophmore class.
Spoiler [+]
If you're looking for which team has been dealt the toughest hand in baseball for the 2012 season, you can make a solid case that it's the Toronto Blue Jays. While some teams have a lot less money and some teams have a lot less talent, Toronto finds itself in perhaps the most frustrating position in baseball -- being a merely good team in the same division as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
Since winning the World Series in 1993, the Blue Jays have been a franchise most epitomized by adequacy. With only a single exception among full seasons -- the 2004 team that went 67-94 -- the Jays have been between 74 and 88 wins every single season. That's enough to get you a shot at the division in some places, but Toronto plays in a division in which adequate is rarely good enough.
With Tampa Bay having shown that you can play with the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays took a chance on a new path, promoting former assistant general manager Alex Anthopoulos to the big chair. Anthopoulos, the latest in the new wave of GMs as comfortable in an economics class as a baseball diamond, has spent the last two-and-a-half years aggressively remaking Toronto into a 21st-century franchise.
Not every decision Anthopoulos has made has worked out -- no GM in history will have a record like Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali -- but one acquisition in particular stands out both as a tremendous boon to the future and an example of what Anthopoulos brings to the franchise: The trade that brought in Brett Lawrie from the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum.
Nobody can say Lawrie snuck up on anyone in 2011. While nobody really expected him to slug .580 in his initial stint in the majors, Lawrie's a former first-rounder and was at or near the top of everyone's Brewers prospect list. What made Lawrie such a quality acquisition is that, with his value down because of concerns about his defense and attitude, Anthopoulos looked past it and focused on Lawrie's tremendous upside rather than his shortcomings. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said it best: "I don't focus on what my players can't do well, I try to utilize what they do well."
So what's next for Lawrie? Given his age, just 21 last season, the increase in Lawrie's power is more likely maintained than a similar improvement for an older prospect. The younger the player, the greater the likelihood that gains will be maintained. The ZiPS projection system likes Lawrie in 2012 as much as scouts or anybody who watched him in Toronto last year, projecting a .275/.333/.498 line with 27 homers, 79 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. If Lawrie can continue to do an adequate job at third, he could challenge Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman for fantasy supremacy at the position. In the long-term, ZiPS gives Lawrie solid odds at becoming a 6-WAR player, which is a guy who has the potential to be in the running for the MVP in a career year, and projection systems aren't generally known for overenthusiasm.
Let's take a look at how the rest of last year's top rookies project for this season.
[h3]Sophomore projections[/h3]
Lawrie, of course, isn't the only headliner of 2012's sophomore class. Eric Hosmer in particular has just as much star potential as Lawrie, putting up a .293/.334/.465 line as a 21-year-old rookie. Hosmer isn't likely to ever be an 80-100 walk guy, but he puts the ball in play well enough that he should consistently hit better than .300 with decent power. A batting average on balls in play of only .314 in 2011 suggest there's not a lot of air in his solid rookie numbers.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore hitters[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year hitters for the 2012 season, sorted by runs created per 27 outs.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]RC/27[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].304[/td][td].354[/td][td].474[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]14[/td][td]6.61[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].275[/td][td].333[/td][td].498[/td][td]27[/td][td]79[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.34[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Belt[/td][td].268[/td][td].365[/td][td].462[/td][td]17[/td][td]64[/td][td]12[/td][td]6.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Goldschmidt[/td][td].250[/td][td].340[/td][td].472[/td][td]30[/td][td]92[/td][td]8[/td][td]5.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].279[/td][td].344[/td][td].455[/td][td]21[/td][td]83[/td][td]5[/td][td]5.81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Allen Craig[/td][td].276[/td][td].329[/td][td].454[/td][td]16[/td][td]68[/td][td]4[/td][td]5.68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][td].266[/td][td].338[/td][td].453[/td][td]17[/td][td]55[/td][td]0[/td][td]5.52[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][td].261[/td][td].348[/td][td].410[/td][td]14[/td][td]55[/td][td]11[/td][td]5.30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td].259[/td][td].339[/td][td].392[/td][td]12[/td][td]54[/td][td]38[/td][td]5.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Duda[/td][td].256[/td][td].338[/td][td].431[/td][td]17[/td][td]69[/td][td]1[/td][td]5.26[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td].274[/td][td].316[/td][td].436[/td][td]19[/td][td]81[/td][td]3[/td][td]5.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Kipnis[/td][td].258[/td][td].320[/td][td].420[/td][td]16[/td][td]67[/td][td]13[/td][td]5.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td].326[/td][td].403[/td][td]10[/td][td]66[/td][td]33[/td][td]4.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Guzman[/td][td].266[/td][td].324[/td][td].399[/td][td]11[/td][td]74[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td][td].253[/td][td].295[/td][td].437[/td][td]25[/td][td]91[/td][td]6[/td][td]4.62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lonnie Chisenhall[/td][td].255[/td][td].312[/td][td].404[/td][td]15[/td][td]73[/td][td]2[/td][td]4.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Descalso[/td][td].263[/td][td].328[/td][td].378[/td][td]6[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]4.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jemile Weeks[/td][td].267[/td][td].318[/td][td].374[/td][td]4[/td][td]48[/td][td]21[/td][td]4.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Espinosa[/td][td].229[/td][td].309[/td][td].400[/td][td]20[/td][td]71[/td][td]17[/td][td]4.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td].229[/td][td].281[/td][td].442[/td][td]24[/td][td]80[/td][td]0[/td][td]4.31[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Reddick[/td][td].238[/td][td].289[/td][td].391[/td][td]15[/td][td]47[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][/table]
Very few solid young hitters have had as difficult a path to the majors as Brandon Belt, who has to overcome the dried-up husk of Aubrey Huff's career, Melky Cabrera's likely status as the starting left fielder with Angel Pagan in center, and San Francisco's bizarre fascination with Brett Pill. Paul Goldschmidt plays in a very friendly park, doesn't have a lot of upside, and will always strike out a bit too much, but he has enough power to be a league average starter for a while, and his emergence after hitting .317/.407/.620 in his minor league career gives Arizona what it hoped to have in Juan Miranda.
Jason Heyward had a disappointing, injury-filled sophomore season, but that shouldn't make people wary of Freddie Freeman, as he should be the starting first baseman for the Atlanta Braves for a decade. Allen Craig is at his peak now and won't have a .917 OPS again, but he's still likely to remain a passable starter or an excellent fourth outfielder for years. Wilson Ramos should continue to grow from his 2011 rookie campaign and, at 24, has already made the Minnesota Twins regret the Matt Capps trade.
On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel is no fluke, with a career strikeout rate of 15.4 per nine innings that resembles video game numbers more than actual major league numbers. Brandon Beachy was the least-heralded of Atlanta's young pitchers, but with a 3.12 FIP in the majors to go along with 10 strikeouts a game, he's making the most of a low-90s fastball.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore pitchers[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year pitchers for the 2012 season, sorted by ERA.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB[/th][th=""]K[/th][/tr][tr][td]Craig Kimbrel[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td]2.21[/td][td]73.1[/td][td]39[/td][td]116[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenley Jansen[/td][td]4[/td][td]1[/td][td]2.29[/td][td]63.0[/td][td]31[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Antonio Bastardo[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][td]3.17[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]21[/td][td]59[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fernando Salas[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.21[/td][td]61.2[/td][td]21[/td][td]60[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]8[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.32[/td][td]152.0[/td][td]48[/td][td]166[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.54[/td][td]61.0[/td][td]26[/td][td]66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Melancon[/td][td]5[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.59[/td][td]57.2[/td][td]20[/td][td]48[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][td]11[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.60[/td][td]155.0[/td][td]58[/td][td]115[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alexi Ogando[/td][td]12[/td][td]7[/td][td]3.72[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]50[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rex Brothers[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]65.0[/td][td]39[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.75[/td][td]148.2[/td][td]52[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vance Worley[/td][td]11[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.85[/td][td]168.1[/td][td]57[/td][td]137[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Sale[/td][td]10[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.95[/td][td]152.2[/td][td]75[/td][td]163[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Cobb[/td][td]7[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.98[/td][td]122.0[/td][td]42[/td][td]91[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Collins[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]4.02[/td][td]66.2[/td][td]42[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]62[/td][td]168[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]11[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]157.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]143[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]10[/td][td]9[/td][td]4.15[/td][td]143.0[/td][td]49[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Stutes[/td][td]5[/td][td]5[/td][td]4.25[/td][td]72.0[/td][td]40[/td][td]68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][td]8[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.34[/td][td]120.1[/td][td]82[/td][td]141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td][td]13[/td][td]10[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]60[/td][td]111[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][td]4.70[/td][td]159.0[/td][td]64[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]10[/td][td]12[/td][td]4.85[/td][td]156.0[/td][td]61[/td][td]96[/td][/tr][/table]
Josh Collmenter is a good candidate to have a drop in performance in his second season, with his 2011 peripherals suggesting he pitched more like a 4.00 ERA. ZiPS projects Collmenter to be the worst starter in a possible 2013 rotation that could also include Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Trevor Bauer, but Collmenter should still be better than league average.
Don't be too alarmed by the fairly high ERA projected for Michael Pineda. Pineda's moving to a much more difficult environment to pitch in, both for the park and having to face the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even the Orioles had a league-average offense last year. The Yankees will take those solid, above-average numbers.
If you're looking for one projection to be wrong, it's Aroldis Chapman's, though I'm not sure if it'll be drastically low or terribly high. With his 100 mph fastball and erratic control, I wouldn't be surprised 15 years from now to find Chapman ended up with a similar career to Randy Johnson or Steve Dalkowski.
Since winning the World Series in 1993, the Blue Jays have been a franchise most epitomized by adequacy. With only a single exception among full seasons -- the 2004 team that went 67-94 -- the Jays have been between 74 and 88 wins every single season. That's enough to get you a shot at the division in some places, but Toronto plays in a division in which adequate is rarely good enough.
With Tampa Bay having shown that you can play with the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays took a chance on a new path, promoting former assistant general manager Alex Anthopoulos to the big chair. Anthopoulos, the latest in the new wave of GMs as comfortable in an economics class as a baseball diamond, has spent the last two-and-a-half years aggressively remaking Toronto into a 21st-century franchise.
Not every decision Anthopoulos has made has worked out -- no GM in history will have a record like Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali -- but one acquisition in particular stands out both as a tremendous boon to the future and an example of what Anthopoulos brings to the franchise: The trade that brought in Brett Lawrie from the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum.
Nobody can say Lawrie snuck up on anyone in 2011. While nobody really expected him to slug .580 in his initial stint in the majors, Lawrie's a former first-rounder and was at or near the top of everyone's Brewers prospect list. What made Lawrie such a quality acquisition is that, with his value down because of concerns about his defense and attitude, Anthopoulos looked past it and focused on Lawrie's tremendous upside rather than his shortcomings. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said it best: "I don't focus on what my players can't do well, I try to utilize what they do well."
So what's next for Lawrie? Given his age, just 21 last season, the increase in Lawrie's power is more likely maintained than a similar improvement for an older prospect. The younger the player, the greater the likelihood that gains will be maintained. The ZiPS projection system likes Lawrie in 2012 as much as scouts or anybody who watched him in Toronto last year, projecting a .275/.333/.498 line with 27 homers, 79 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. If Lawrie can continue to do an adequate job at third, he could challenge Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman for fantasy supremacy at the position. In the long-term, ZiPS gives Lawrie solid odds at becoming a 6-WAR player, which is a guy who has the potential to be in the running for the MVP in a career year, and projection systems aren't generally known for overenthusiasm.
Let's take a look at how the rest of last year's top rookies project for this season.
[h3]Sophomore projections[/h3]
Lawrie, of course, isn't the only headliner of 2012's sophomore class. Eric Hosmer in particular has just as much star potential as Lawrie, putting up a .293/.334/.465 line as a 21-year-old rookie. Hosmer isn't likely to ever be an 80-100 walk guy, but he puts the ball in play well enough that he should consistently hit better than .300 with decent power. A batting average on balls in play of only .314 in 2011 suggest there's not a lot of air in his solid rookie numbers.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore hitters[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year hitters for the 2012 season, sorted by runs created per 27 outs.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]RC/27[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].304[/td][td].354[/td][td].474[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]14[/td][td]6.61[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].275[/td][td].333[/td][td].498[/td][td]27[/td][td]79[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.34[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Belt[/td][td].268[/td][td].365[/td][td].462[/td][td]17[/td][td]64[/td][td]12[/td][td]6.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Goldschmidt[/td][td].250[/td][td].340[/td][td].472[/td][td]30[/td][td]92[/td][td]8[/td][td]5.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].279[/td][td].344[/td][td].455[/td][td]21[/td][td]83[/td][td]5[/td][td]5.81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Allen Craig[/td][td].276[/td][td].329[/td][td].454[/td][td]16[/td][td]68[/td][td]4[/td][td]5.68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][td].266[/td][td].338[/td][td].453[/td][td]17[/td][td]55[/td][td]0[/td][td]5.52[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][td].261[/td][td].348[/td][td].410[/td][td]14[/td][td]55[/td][td]11[/td][td]5.30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td].259[/td][td].339[/td][td].392[/td][td]12[/td][td]54[/td][td]38[/td][td]5.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Duda[/td][td].256[/td][td].338[/td][td].431[/td][td]17[/td][td]69[/td][td]1[/td][td]5.26[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td].274[/td][td].316[/td][td].436[/td][td]19[/td][td]81[/td][td]3[/td][td]5.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Kipnis[/td][td].258[/td][td].320[/td][td].420[/td][td]16[/td][td]67[/td][td]13[/td][td]5.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td].326[/td][td].403[/td][td]10[/td][td]66[/td][td]33[/td][td]4.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Guzman[/td][td].266[/td][td].324[/td][td].399[/td][td]11[/td][td]74[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td][td].253[/td][td].295[/td][td].437[/td][td]25[/td][td]91[/td][td]6[/td][td]4.62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lonnie Chisenhall[/td][td].255[/td][td].312[/td][td].404[/td][td]15[/td][td]73[/td][td]2[/td][td]4.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Descalso[/td][td].263[/td][td].328[/td][td].378[/td][td]6[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]4.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jemile Weeks[/td][td].267[/td][td].318[/td][td].374[/td][td]4[/td][td]48[/td][td]21[/td][td]4.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Espinosa[/td][td].229[/td][td].309[/td][td].400[/td][td]20[/td][td]71[/td][td]17[/td][td]4.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td].229[/td][td].281[/td][td].442[/td][td]24[/td][td]80[/td][td]0[/td][td]4.31[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Reddick[/td][td].238[/td][td].289[/td][td].391[/td][td]15[/td][td]47[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][/table]
Very few solid young hitters have had as difficult a path to the majors as Brandon Belt, who has to overcome the dried-up husk of Aubrey Huff's career, Melky Cabrera's likely status as the starting left fielder with Angel Pagan in center, and San Francisco's bizarre fascination with Brett Pill. Paul Goldschmidt plays in a very friendly park, doesn't have a lot of upside, and will always strike out a bit too much, but he has enough power to be a league average starter for a while, and his emergence after hitting .317/.407/.620 in his minor league career gives Arizona what it hoped to have in Juan Miranda.
Jason Heyward had a disappointing, injury-filled sophomore season, but that shouldn't make people wary of Freddie Freeman, as he should be the starting first baseman for the Atlanta Braves for a decade. Allen Craig is at his peak now and won't have a .917 OPS again, but he's still likely to remain a passable starter or an excellent fourth outfielder for years. Wilson Ramos should continue to grow from his 2011 rookie campaign and, at 24, has already made the Minnesota Twins regret the Matt Capps trade.
On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel is no fluke, with a career strikeout rate of 15.4 per nine innings that resembles video game numbers more than actual major league numbers. Brandon Beachy was the least-heralded of Atlanta's young pitchers, but with a 3.12 FIP in the majors to go along with 10 strikeouts a game, he's making the most of a low-90s fastball.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore pitchers[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year pitchers for the 2012 season, sorted by ERA.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB[/th][th=""]K[/th][/tr][tr][td]Craig Kimbrel[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td]2.21[/td][td]73.1[/td][td]39[/td][td]116[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenley Jansen[/td][td]4[/td][td]1[/td][td]2.29[/td][td]63.0[/td][td]31[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Antonio Bastardo[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][td]3.17[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]21[/td][td]59[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fernando Salas[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.21[/td][td]61.2[/td][td]21[/td][td]60[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]8[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.32[/td][td]152.0[/td][td]48[/td][td]166[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.54[/td][td]61.0[/td][td]26[/td][td]66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Melancon[/td][td]5[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.59[/td][td]57.2[/td][td]20[/td][td]48[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][td]11[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.60[/td][td]155.0[/td][td]58[/td][td]115[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alexi Ogando[/td][td]12[/td][td]7[/td][td]3.72[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]50[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rex Brothers[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]65.0[/td][td]39[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.75[/td][td]148.2[/td][td]52[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vance Worley[/td][td]11[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.85[/td][td]168.1[/td][td]57[/td][td]137[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Sale[/td][td]10[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.95[/td][td]152.2[/td][td]75[/td][td]163[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Cobb[/td][td]7[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.98[/td][td]122.0[/td][td]42[/td][td]91[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Collins[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]4.02[/td][td]66.2[/td][td]42[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]62[/td][td]168[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]11[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]157.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]143[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]10[/td][td]9[/td][td]4.15[/td][td]143.0[/td][td]49[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Stutes[/td][td]5[/td][td]5[/td][td]4.25[/td][td]72.0[/td][td]40[/td][td]68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][td]8[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.34[/td][td]120.1[/td][td]82[/td][td]141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td][td]13[/td][td]10[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]60[/td][td]111[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][td]4.70[/td][td]159.0[/td][td]64[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]10[/td][td]12[/td][td]4.85[/td][td]156.0[/td][td]61[/td][td]96[/td][/tr][/table]
Josh Collmenter is a good candidate to have a drop in performance in his second season, with his 2011 peripherals suggesting he pitched more like a 4.00 ERA. ZiPS projects Collmenter to be the worst starter in a possible 2013 rotation that could also include Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Trevor Bauer, but Collmenter should still be better than league average.
Don't be too alarmed by the fairly high ERA projected for Michael Pineda. Pineda's moving to a much more difficult environment to pitch in, both for the park and having to face the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even the Orioles had a league-average offense last year. The Yankees will take those solid, above-average numbers.
If you're looking for one projection to be wrong, it's Aroldis Chapman's, though I'm not sure if it'll be drastically low or terribly high. With his 100 mph fastball and erratic control, I wouldn't be surprised 15 years from now to find Chapman ended up with a similar career to Randy Johnson or Steve Dalkowski.
Future Power Rankings: 20-11.
Royals ready for challenge?
Projecting the sophmore class.
Spoiler [+]
[*]
[*]11
Kansas City Royals
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fourth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
For years we've been hearing about how the Royals are on the verge of competing. That time may finally be upon us, and they are the highest-ranked AL Central club on this list. With Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, K.C. has one of the better young lineups around, and young arms such as Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb are almost ready to make a big impact.
While they are never going to be huge free-agent spenders, there aren't any albatrosses on this club, which means GM Dayton Moore can pick his spots to spend to fill holes. Believe it or not, Kansas City is extremely close to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1985. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
After years of rebuilding and painstakingly nurturing the farm system, the Royals have the position players to win within the next five years. But which pitching prospects will emerge? If Montgomery and Lamb don't show ace stuff soon, Moore should package some prospects for a proven top-of-the-rotation starter. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 95-67 (first place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There probably isn't a team in baseball that is a more clear-cut favorite in its division than the Tigers in 2012. After adding Prince Fielder, they should be able to slug their way to another AL Central title. However, despite the presence of Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, there are some questions about this team beyond 2013. Not only is it incredibly top-heavy, but the farm system lacks impact talent beyond right-hander JacobTurner and third baseman Nick Castellanos.
As we learned this winter, owner Mike Ilitch is not afraid to spend to win, and as long as he's around and Cabrera, Fielder and Verlander are in their primes, it's hard to see this club falling out of contention. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
As currently constructed, the Tigers are in position to compete for the next few years, and they need to win now. But they'll have to be willing to trade top minor leaguers when necessary. And it will be necessary, as the infield defense needs plenty of improvement. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There isn't much talent on the North Side right now, but there is still reason to be excited. The Cubs just brought in a group of execs (led by team president Theo Epstein) who helped the Red Sox break their 86-year title drought, and Epstein & Co. have already begun the process of shedding the dead weight on the Cubs' roster.
Based on how well Epstein was able to build a farm system when he was Boston's GM, it's easy to foresee success in Chicago, particularly since the Ricketts family will give him money to spend once the team is ready to compete. Don't expect a miracle in 2012, but this team is already on track for success. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
How do Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer replicate the development machine that produced Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis? Stay the course and don't deviate with free agents until they're ready to win. Fans will need patience. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 80-81 (third place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
It's one thing to get the No. 1 pick in the draft in a year when there's an obvious future All-Star available. It's quite another to get that pick two years in a row and earn the right to take once-in-a-generation players in consecutive seasons. That's what happened to the Nats with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and both appear to be as good as advertised.
If Strasburg can prove he's healthy for a full season after missing most of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Harper builds on his fabulous minor league debut, this team could quickly become a powerhouse. Of the teams outside the top 10, the Nats probably have the best chance of being in the top five of these rankings a year from now. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Manager Davey Johnson is 69 years old and the Nationals should establish an heir apparent. They could follow the Cardinals and White Sox and hire an unproven manager or go get a known commodity such as Terry Francona. They also could groom an up-and-coming onetime minor league skipper, such as Randy Knorr. Whatever they do, it's crucial they bring in someone who has the respect of Strasburg and Harper and can get the most out of them. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 73-89 (fourth place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Reds and Rockies are in a virtual tie in our scoring system, with the former getting a slight edge by decimal points. There are two really good reasons to be excited about Colorado's future: shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Both are just entering their primes, signed at least through 2017, and among the best players in baseball at their respective positions.
Few teams can boast a pair of position cornerstones as good as these two, and they should keep Colorado relevant for the next five years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
He has been the face of the franchise for more than a decade, but Todd Helton is nearing the end of his storied career and his eventual replacement at first base is a concern. Getting power from a power position is crucial for a team playing at Coors Field. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
GM Walt Jocketty deserves some credit. He went into the offseason fully aware of the fact that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were likely leaving the division, and he decided to go for broke, trading a number of prospects to San Diego for Mat Latos, who will anchor Cincy's staff.
But Joey Votto is signed through only 2013, and will almost certainly be too rich for the Reds when he hits free agency, which means their championship window will be short. The upcoming season might be the Reds' best hope for a while, so fans had better enjoy it. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Reds can't afford to let Votto walk as a free agent and only get draft picks in return. They should trade him next offseason for a huge package, which could restock the farm system after emptying it to get Latos and Sean Marshall. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 86-76 (second place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Great pitching can mask a lot of deficiencies, and the Giants have plenty of both. They took a big gamble in July when they traded top prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for pending free agent Carlos Beltran in hopes of a repeat. Beltran was fantastic for San Fran, but the Giants still came up short.
Now they're without their best pitching prospect, Beltran is in St. Louis, Matt Cain is set to be a free agent next winter and Tim Lincecum the year after that. The Giants will contend this year, but they are a club that could see its ranking change significantly in the next year or two if they can't keep their top two starters in town. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though they were able to extend ace Lincecum this offseason for two more years, the Giants still must somehow sign both him and Cain to long-term contracts. Because they have pitching at the big league level they need to focus on drafting developing position players to pair with Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 67-95 (fourth place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Like the A's, the Mariners are well aware that they aren't going to compete with the Rangers and Angels the next couple of years. However, Seattle is very slowly building a future contender.
With Ichiro Suzuki's contract finally set to expire after this season, they have less than $40 million committed for 2013, and even less beyond that. In other words, while young arms such as Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are making their way to the majors, GM Jack Zduriencik should have the cash needed to go shopping for a big-time bat or two to pair with Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Mariners' farm system is loaded with pitching prospects. However, outside of Montero, Ackley and Justin Smoak, they are short of position players and must develop more in their system or trade for more. Acquiring Montero was a step in the right direction. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 82-79 (third place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This ranking is a bit of a leap of faith, as it's assumed throughout the industry that the Dodgers' next owner will come in looking to spend. That new owner will also get the chance to negotiate a new cable deal, which should be one of the richest in the game.
The Dodgers already have Matt Kemp, arguably the best all-around player in baseball, signed through 2019, and Clayton Kershaw, the best young pitcher in the game, whom they are expected to lock up as well. Once the ownership situation is settled, prepare for some moving and shaking at Chavez Ravine. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Clearly the biggest issue facing the Dodgers is the new incoming ownership that faces a multitude of problems, which include improving Dodger Stadium and, more importantly, signing Kershaw to a long-term deal. -- Jim Bowden
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place in NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The good news for the Padres is that they have an excellent farm system, which was given a huge injection of talent with the Mat Latos and Mike Adams trades. The bad news is that there isn't much else in terms of big league talent and, almost as importantly, cash.
Expectations are low for 2012, and new GM Josh Byrnes should have more time to turn things around here than he was given in Arizona. But he and his player-development staff must figure out how to turn their plethora of prospects into major league contributors. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Finances continue to be the main issue for the Padres. Their small-market status dictates they rely on a superior farm system and trade players before they hit free agency, like they did with Latos this winter. Pitching and defense should remain their focus in player development, taking advantage of spacious Petco Park. -- Jim Bowden
Kansas City Royals
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fourth place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
For years we've been hearing about how the Royals are on the verge of competing. That time may finally be upon us, and they are the highest-ranked AL Central club on this list. With Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler and Alex Gordon, K.C. has one of the better young lineups around, and young arms such as Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb are almost ready to make a big impact.
While they are never going to be huge free-agent spenders, there aren't any albatrosses on this club, which means GM Dayton Moore can pick his spots to spend to fill holes. Believe it or not, Kansas City is extremely close to returning to the playoffs for the first time since 1985. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
After years of rebuilding and painstakingly nurturing the farm system, the Royals have the position players to win within the next five years. But which pitching prospects will emerge? If Montgomery and Lamb don't show ace stuff soon, Moore should package some prospects for a proven top-of-the-rotation starter. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 12
LAST SEASON: 95-67 (first place AL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There probably isn't a team in baseball that is a more clear-cut favorite in its division than the Tigers in 2012. After adding Prince Fielder, they should be able to slug their way to another AL Central title. However, despite the presence of Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, there are some questions about this team beyond 2013. Not only is it incredibly top-heavy, but the farm system lacks impact talent beyond right-hander JacobTurner and third baseman Nick Castellanos.
As we learned this winter, owner Mike Ilitch is not afraid to spend to win, and as long as he's around and Cabrera, Fielder and Verlander are in their primes, it's hard to see this club falling out of contention. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
As currently constructed, the Tigers are in position to compete for the next few years, and they need to win now. But they'll have to be willing to trade top minor leaguers when necessary. And it will be necessary, as the infield defense needs plenty of improvement. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 13
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
There isn't much talent on the North Side right now, but there is still reason to be excited. The Cubs just brought in a group of execs (led by team president Theo Epstein) who helped the Red Sox break their 86-year title drought, and Epstein & Co. have already begun the process of shedding the dead weight on the Cubs' roster.
Based on how well Epstein was able to build a farm system when he was Boston's GM, it's easy to foresee success in Chicago, particularly since the Ricketts family will give him money to spend once the team is ready to compete. Don't expect a miracle in 2012, but this team is already on track for success. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
How do Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer replicate the development machine that produced Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Kevin Youkilis? Stay the course and don't deviate with free agents until they're ready to win. Fans will need patience. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 14
LAST SEASON: 80-81 (third place NL East)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
It's one thing to get the No. 1 pick in the draft in a year when there's an obvious future All-Star available. It's quite another to get that pick two years in a row and earn the right to take once-in-a-generation players in consecutive seasons. That's what happened to the Nats with Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper, and both appear to be as good as advertised.
If Strasburg can prove he's healthy for a full season after missing most of 2011 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and Harper builds on his fabulous minor league debut, this team could quickly become a powerhouse. Of the teams outside the top 10, the Nats probably have the best chance of being in the top five of these rankings a year from now. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Manager Davey Johnson is 69 years old and the Nationals should establish an heir apparent. They could follow the Cardinals and White Sox and hire an unproven manager or go get a known commodity such as Terry Francona. They also could groom an up-and-coming onetime minor league skipper, such as Randy Knorr. Whatever they do, it's crucial they bring in someone who has the respect of Strasburg and Harper and can get the most out of them. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 15
LAST SEASON: 73-89 (fourth place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The Reds and Rockies are in a virtual tie in our scoring system, with the former getting a slight edge by decimal points. There are two really good reasons to be excited about Colorado's future: shortstop Troy Tulowitzki and outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Both are just entering their primes, signed at least through 2017, and among the best players in baseball at their respective positions.
Few teams can boast a pair of position cornerstones as good as these two, and they should keep Colorado relevant for the next five years. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
He has been the face of the franchise for more than a decade, but Todd Helton is nearing the end of his storied career and his eventual replacement at first base is a concern. Getting power from a power position is crucial for a team playing at Coors Field. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 16
LAST SEASON: 79-83 (third place NL Central)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
GM Walt Jocketty deserves some credit. He went into the offseason fully aware of the fact that Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder were likely leaving the division, and he decided to go for broke, trading a number of prospects to San Diego for Mat Latos, who will anchor Cincy's staff.
But Joey Votto is signed through only 2013, and will almost certainly be too rich for the Reds when he hits free agency, which means their championship window will be short. The upcoming season might be the Reds' best hope for a while, so fans had better enjoy it. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Reds can't afford to let Votto walk as a free agent and only get draft picks in return. They should trade him next offseason for a huge package, which could restock the farm system after emptying it to get Latos and Sean Marshall. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 17
LAST SEASON: 86-76 (second place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Great pitching can mask a lot of deficiencies, and the Giants have plenty of both. They took a big gamble in July when they traded top prospect Zack Wheeler to the Mets for pending free agent Carlos Beltran in hopes of a repeat. Beltran was fantastic for San Fran, but the Giants still came up short.
Now they're without their best pitching prospect, Beltran is in St. Louis, Matt Cain is set to be a free agent next winter and Tim Lincecum the year after that. The Giants will contend this year, but they are a club that could see its ranking change significantly in the next year or two if they can't keep their top two starters in town. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Though they were able to extend ace Lincecum this offseason for two more years, the Giants still must somehow sign both him and Cain to long-term contracts. Because they have pitching at the big league level they need to focus on drafting developing position players to pair with Pablo Sandoval, Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 18
LAST SEASON: 67-95 (fourth place AL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
Like the A's, the Mariners are well aware that they aren't going to compete with the Rangers and Angels the next couple of years. However, Seattle is very slowly building a future contender.
With Ichiro Suzuki's contract finally set to expire after this season, they have less than $40 million committed for 2013, and even less beyond that. In other words, while young arms such as Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are making their way to the majors, GM Jack Zduriencik should have the cash needed to go shopping for a big-time bat or two to pair with Dustin Ackley and Jesus Montero. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
The Mariners' farm system is loaded with pitching prospects. However, outside of Montero, Ackley and Justin Smoak, they are short of position players and must develop more in their system or trade for more. Acquiring Montero was a step in the right direction. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 19
LAST SEASON: 82-79 (third place NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
This ranking is a bit of a leap of faith, as it's assumed throughout the industry that the Dodgers' next owner will come in looking to spend. That new owner will also get the chance to negotiate a new cable deal, which should be one of the richest in the game.
The Dodgers already have Matt Kemp, arguably the best all-around player in baseball, signed through 2019, and Clayton Kershaw, the best young pitcher in the game, whom they are expected to lock up as well. Once the ownership situation is settled, prepare for some moving and shaking at Chavez Ravine. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Clearly the biggest issue facing the Dodgers is the new incoming ownership that faces a multitude of problems, which include improving Dodger Stadium and, more importantly, signing Kershaw to a long-term deal. -- Jim Bowden
-
- 20
LAST SEASON: 71-91 (fifth place in NL West)
The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category.
[h3]The lowdown[/h3]
The good news for the Padres is that they have an excellent farm system, which was given a huge injection of talent with the Mat Latos and Mike Adams trades. The bad news is that there isn't much else in terms of big league talent and, almost as importantly, cash.
Expectations are low for 2012, and new GM Josh Byrnes should have more time to turn things around here than he was given in Arizona. But he and his player-development staff must figure out how to turn their plethora of prospects into major league contributors. -- Buster Olney
[h3]The next step[/h3]
Finances continue to be the main issue for the Padres. Their small-market status dictates they rely on a superior farm system and trade players before they hit free agency, like they did with Latos this winter. Pitching and defense should remain their focus in player development, taking advantage of spacious Petco Park. -- Jim Bowden
Royals ready for challenge?
Spoiler [+]
The Detroit Tigers were the overwhelming favorites in the American League Central three weeks ago. Then, with the Prince Fielder signing, they upgraded to the point that it clearly makes no sense to pick anyone else in the division.
Meanwhile, a little less than 800 miles to the southwest, the Kansas City Royals are the flavor of the month when it comes to young, low-budget teams doing things the right way. Through a combination of impressive drafts and aggressive work in the international market, the Royals' farm system became the envy of baseball. In 2011, we began to see much of that talent surface at the big league level, and many envision the club having a good shot at its first .500 season since 2003 as part of a progression that would eventually bring the club its first playoff appearance since 1985 -- when less than half of the current team's 40-man roster had been born.
There is no question that the team is improving, as evidenced by its spot in Insider's Future Power Rankings. The fact that the Royals are on the upswing is not up for debate. What's fair game, however, is to question whether they can take that second step and become true playoff contenders. Do they have the goods to do it? And if so, when? People in the industry are divided on both questions.
A quick survey of scouts and team officials generated an average prediction of 78 wins for the team in 2012, but there's not as much confidence as some might expect in Kansas City's ability to make that second, more difficult jump. "There are a lot of reasons to wonder if they're going to bring it all together in the end," one American League official said.
There is little doubt that the club is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut. In 2011, the team was sixth in the American League in runs, and there is every reason to believe things will go up from there, as the projected 2012 lineup is exclusively players either in their prime or still years from it. "They are going to have a beast of a lineup by 2013," one scout said. "Eric Hosmer is going to be an MVP candidate, and I can argue that there are four or five players who will be getting better over the next three years."
The holdup, as it is with most teams, is pitching. "Tell me right now, how are they going to take a big step forward when they are throwing Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen and whatever else sticks to the wall at you?" queried a National League official. "I just don't see it, and I don't see the pieces in the minors to fix it."
This is where the unpredictability and incredible attrition among pitching prospects rears its ugly head. Entering the 2011 season, the Royals had a quartet of left-handed starting pitchers worthy of anybody's top 100 prospect list, but a year later, they're mostly question marks.
• Chris Dwyer: Posted a 5.60 ERA at Double-A as command and control faltered.
• Danny Duffy: Reached the big leagues but had a 5.64 ERA as he struggled with mechanics.
• John Lamb: Tommy John surgery.
• Mike Montgomery: 5.32 ERA at Triple-A; hasn't been really good since the first half of the 2010 season.
Those four were a big part of the answer to the Royals' problems 12 months ago, and now they provide no guarantees. "The trade for Vince Mazzaro didn't work out, they've been forced to sign Bruce Chen to a two-year deal just to have some assurances, they're trying Aaron Crow as a starter when he couldn't do that in the minors, and it just shows how finding pitching is a tough deal," said an American League assistant general manager.
The biggest problem for the Royals just might be a matter of lining up windows. As a small-market club, players will be leaving via free agency, and to perfectly match up final years with prospects reaching their abilities is a daunting task. "Run through this for a second and just step back and think about it," said one team official. "I love their position players, but they're going to get expensive quickly. Alex Gordon leaves in two years and Joakim Soria is gone, and then they lose a guy who could be a workhorse in Hochevar in three years and all of a sudden it's uh-oh time. They have some timelines that aren't matching up right now, and that's what I'd be concerned about."
This is not designed to rain on anyone's parade, and the Royals' best bet between players still developing and players not leaving for greener pastures is the 2014 season. It's easy and fun to root for the Davids of the world as they battle baseball's Goliaths. But teams like the Tampa Bay Rays are still the exception, not the rule, and while there are plenty of futures to dream on, very few of them actually come true. Still, it's a good time to be excited in Kansas City -- just be realistic.
"There is no question that is going to be a challenge for them to become a playoff contender," said one front-office member of a consistently losing club. "But I'll tell you right now, I'd swap places with them in a second."
Meanwhile, a little less than 800 miles to the southwest, the Kansas City Royals are the flavor of the month when it comes to young, low-budget teams doing things the right way. Through a combination of impressive drafts and aggressive work in the international market, the Royals' farm system became the envy of baseball. In 2011, we began to see much of that talent surface at the big league level, and many envision the club having a good shot at its first .500 season since 2003 as part of a progression that would eventually bring the club its first playoff appearance since 1985 -- when less than half of the current team's 40-man roster had been born.
There is no question that the team is improving, as evidenced by its spot in Insider's Future Power Rankings. The fact that the Royals are on the upswing is not up for debate. What's fair game, however, is to question whether they can take that second step and become true playoff contenders. Do they have the goods to do it? And if so, when? People in the industry are divided on both questions.
A quick survey of scouts and team officials generated an average prediction of 78 wins for the team in 2012, but there's not as much confidence as some might expect in Kansas City's ability to make that second, more difficult jump. "There are a lot of reasons to wonder if they're going to bring it all together in the end," one American League official said.
There is little doubt that the club is going to turn into an offensive juggernaut. In 2011, the team was sixth in the American League in runs, and there is every reason to believe things will go up from there, as the projected 2012 lineup is exclusively players either in their prime or still years from it. "They are going to have a beast of a lineup by 2013," one scout said. "Eric Hosmer is going to be an MVP candidate, and I can argue that there are four or five players who will be getting better over the next three years."
The holdup, as it is with most teams, is pitching. "Tell me right now, how are they going to take a big step forward when they are throwing Luke Hochevar, Jonathan Sanchez, Bruce Chen and whatever else sticks to the wall at you?" queried a National League official. "I just don't see it, and I don't see the pieces in the minors to fix it."
This is where the unpredictability and incredible attrition among pitching prospects rears its ugly head. Entering the 2011 season, the Royals had a quartet of left-handed starting pitchers worthy of anybody's top 100 prospect list, but a year later, they're mostly question marks.
• Chris Dwyer: Posted a 5.60 ERA at Double-A as command and control faltered.
• Danny Duffy: Reached the big leagues but had a 5.64 ERA as he struggled with mechanics.
• John Lamb: Tommy John surgery.
• Mike Montgomery: 5.32 ERA at Triple-A; hasn't been really good since the first half of the 2010 season.
Those four were a big part of the answer to the Royals' problems 12 months ago, and now they provide no guarantees. "The trade for Vince Mazzaro didn't work out, they've been forced to sign Bruce Chen to a two-year deal just to have some assurances, they're trying Aaron Crow as a starter when he couldn't do that in the minors, and it just shows how finding pitching is a tough deal," said an American League assistant general manager.
The biggest problem for the Royals just might be a matter of lining up windows. As a small-market club, players will be leaving via free agency, and to perfectly match up final years with prospects reaching their abilities is a daunting task. "Run through this for a second and just step back and think about it," said one team official. "I love their position players, but they're going to get expensive quickly. Alex Gordon leaves in two years and Joakim Soria is gone, and then they lose a guy who could be a workhorse in Hochevar in three years and all of a sudden it's uh-oh time. They have some timelines that aren't matching up right now, and that's what I'd be concerned about."
This is not designed to rain on anyone's parade, and the Royals' best bet between players still developing and players not leaving for greener pastures is the 2014 season. It's easy and fun to root for the Davids of the world as they battle baseball's Goliaths. But teams like the Tampa Bay Rays are still the exception, not the rule, and while there are plenty of futures to dream on, very few of them actually come true. Still, it's a good time to be excited in Kansas City -- just be realistic.
"There is no question that is going to be a challenge for them to become a playoff contender," said one front-office member of a consistently losing club. "But I'll tell you right now, I'd swap places with them in a second."
Projecting the sophmore class.
Spoiler [+]
If you're looking for which team has been dealt the toughest hand in baseball for the 2012 season, you can make a solid case that it's the Toronto Blue Jays. While some teams have a lot less money and some teams have a lot less talent, Toronto finds itself in perhaps the most frustrating position in baseball -- being a merely good team in the same division as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
Since winning the World Series in 1993, the Blue Jays have been a franchise most epitomized by adequacy. With only a single exception among full seasons -- the 2004 team that went 67-94 -- the Jays have been between 74 and 88 wins every single season. That's enough to get you a shot at the division in some places, but Toronto plays in a division in which adequate is rarely good enough.
With Tampa Bay having shown that you can play with the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays took a chance on a new path, promoting former assistant general manager Alex Anthopoulos to the big chair. Anthopoulos, the latest in the new wave of GMs as comfortable in an economics class as a baseball diamond, has spent the last two-and-a-half years aggressively remaking Toronto into a 21st-century franchise.
Not every decision Anthopoulos has made has worked out -- no GM in history will have a record like Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali -- but one acquisition in particular stands out both as a tremendous boon to the future and an example of what Anthopoulos brings to the franchise: The trade that brought in Brett Lawrie from the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum.
Nobody can say Lawrie snuck up on anyone in 2011. While nobody really expected him to slug .580 in his initial stint in the majors, Lawrie's a former first-rounder and was at or near the top of everyone's Brewers prospect list. What made Lawrie such a quality acquisition is that, with his value down because of concerns about his defense and attitude, Anthopoulos looked past it and focused on Lawrie's tremendous upside rather than his shortcomings. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said it best: "I don't focus on what my players can't do well, I try to utilize what they do well."
So what's next for Lawrie? Given his age, just 21 last season, the increase in Lawrie's power is more likely maintained than a similar improvement for an older prospect. The younger the player, the greater the likelihood that gains will be maintained. The ZiPS projection system likes Lawrie in 2012 as much as scouts or anybody who watched him in Toronto last year, projecting a .275/.333/.498 line with 27 homers, 79 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. If Lawrie can continue to do an adequate job at third, he could challenge Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman for fantasy supremacy at the position. In the long-term, ZiPS gives Lawrie solid odds at becoming a 6-WAR player, which is a guy who has the potential to be in the running for the MVP in a career year, and projection systems aren't generally known for overenthusiasm.
Let's take a look at how the rest of last year's top rookies project for this season.
[h3]Sophomore projections[/h3]
Lawrie, of course, isn't the only headliner of 2012's sophomore class. Eric Hosmer in particular has just as much star potential as Lawrie, putting up a .293/.334/.465 line as a 21-year-old rookie. Hosmer isn't likely to ever be an 80-100 walk guy, but he puts the ball in play well enough that he should consistently hit better than .300 with decent power. A batting average on balls in play of only .314 in 2011 suggest there's not a lot of air in his solid rookie numbers.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore hitters[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year hitters for the 2012 season, sorted by runs created per 27 outs.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]RC/27[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].304[/td][td].354[/td][td].474[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]14[/td][td]6.61[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].275[/td][td].333[/td][td].498[/td][td]27[/td][td]79[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.34[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Belt[/td][td].268[/td][td].365[/td][td].462[/td][td]17[/td][td]64[/td][td]12[/td][td]6.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Goldschmidt[/td][td].250[/td][td].340[/td][td].472[/td][td]30[/td][td]92[/td][td]8[/td][td]5.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].279[/td][td].344[/td][td].455[/td][td]21[/td][td]83[/td][td]5[/td][td]5.81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Allen Craig[/td][td].276[/td][td].329[/td][td].454[/td][td]16[/td][td]68[/td][td]4[/td][td]5.68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][td].266[/td][td].338[/td][td].453[/td][td]17[/td][td]55[/td][td]0[/td][td]5.52[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][td].261[/td][td].348[/td][td].410[/td][td]14[/td][td]55[/td][td]11[/td][td]5.30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td].259[/td][td].339[/td][td].392[/td][td]12[/td][td]54[/td][td]38[/td][td]5.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Duda[/td][td].256[/td][td].338[/td][td].431[/td][td]17[/td][td]69[/td][td]1[/td][td]5.26[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td].274[/td][td].316[/td][td].436[/td][td]19[/td][td]81[/td][td]3[/td][td]5.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Kipnis[/td][td].258[/td][td].320[/td][td].420[/td][td]16[/td][td]67[/td][td]13[/td][td]5.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td].326[/td][td].403[/td][td]10[/td][td]66[/td][td]33[/td][td]4.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Guzman[/td][td].266[/td][td].324[/td][td].399[/td][td]11[/td][td]74[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td][td].253[/td][td].295[/td][td].437[/td][td]25[/td][td]91[/td][td]6[/td][td]4.62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lonnie Chisenhall[/td][td].255[/td][td].312[/td][td].404[/td][td]15[/td][td]73[/td][td]2[/td][td]4.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Descalso[/td][td].263[/td][td].328[/td][td].378[/td][td]6[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]4.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jemile Weeks[/td][td].267[/td][td].318[/td][td].374[/td][td]4[/td][td]48[/td][td]21[/td][td]4.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Espinosa[/td][td].229[/td][td].309[/td][td].400[/td][td]20[/td][td]71[/td][td]17[/td][td]4.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td].229[/td][td].281[/td][td].442[/td][td]24[/td][td]80[/td][td]0[/td][td]4.31[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Reddick[/td][td].238[/td][td].289[/td][td].391[/td][td]15[/td][td]47[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][/table]
Very few solid young hitters have had as difficult a path to the majors as Brandon Belt, who has to overcome the dried-up husk of Aubrey Huff's career, Melky Cabrera's likely status as the starting left fielder with Angel Pagan in center, and San Francisco's bizarre fascination with Brett Pill. Paul Goldschmidt plays in a very friendly park, doesn't have a lot of upside, and will always strike out a bit too much, but he has enough power to be a league average starter for a while, and his emergence after hitting .317/.407/.620 in his minor league career gives Arizona what it hoped to have in Juan Miranda.
Jason Heyward had a disappointing, injury-filled sophomore season, but that shouldn't make people wary of Freddie Freeman, as he should be the starting first baseman for the Atlanta Braves for a decade. Allen Craig is at his peak now and won't have a .917 OPS again, but he's still likely to remain a passable starter or an excellent fourth outfielder for years. Wilson Ramos should continue to grow from his 2011 rookie campaign and, at 24, has already made the Minnesota Twins regret the Matt Capps trade.
On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel is no fluke, with a career strikeout rate of 15.4 per nine innings that resembles video game numbers more than actual major league numbers. Brandon Beachy was the least-heralded of Atlanta's young pitchers, but with a 3.12 FIP in the majors to go along with 10 strikeouts a game, he's making the most of a low-90s fastball.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore pitchers[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year pitchers for the 2012 season, sorted by ERA.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB[/th][th=""]K[/th][/tr][tr][td]Craig Kimbrel[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td]2.21[/td][td]73.1[/td][td]39[/td][td]116[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenley Jansen[/td][td]4[/td][td]1[/td][td]2.29[/td][td]63.0[/td][td]31[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Antonio Bastardo[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][td]3.17[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]21[/td][td]59[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fernando Salas[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.21[/td][td]61.2[/td][td]21[/td][td]60[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]8[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.32[/td][td]152.0[/td][td]48[/td][td]166[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.54[/td][td]61.0[/td][td]26[/td][td]66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Melancon[/td][td]5[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.59[/td][td]57.2[/td][td]20[/td][td]48[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][td]11[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.60[/td][td]155.0[/td][td]58[/td][td]115[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alexi Ogando[/td][td]12[/td][td]7[/td][td]3.72[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]50[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rex Brothers[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]65.0[/td][td]39[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.75[/td][td]148.2[/td][td]52[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vance Worley[/td][td]11[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.85[/td][td]168.1[/td][td]57[/td][td]137[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Sale[/td][td]10[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.95[/td][td]152.2[/td][td]75[/td][td]163[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Cobb[/td][td]7[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.98[/td][td]122.0[/td][td]42[/td][td]91[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Collins[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]4.02[/td][td]66.2[/td][td]42[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]62[/td][td]168[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]11[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]157.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]143[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]10[/td][td]9[/td][td]4.15[/td][td]143.0[/td][td]49[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Stutes[/td][td]5[/td][td]5[/td][td]4.25[/td][td]72.0[/td][td]40[/td][td]68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][td]8[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.34[/td][td]120.1[/td][td]82[/td][td]141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td][td]13[/td][td]10[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]60[/td][td]111[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][td]4.70[/td][td]159.0[/td][td]64[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]10[/td][td]12[/td][td]4.85[/td][td]156.0[/td][td]61[/td][td]96[/td][/tr][/table]
Josh Collmenter is a good candidate to have a drop in performance in his second season, with his 2011 peripherals suggesting he pitched more like a 4.00 ERA. ZiPS projects Collmenter to be the worst starter in a possible 2013 rotation that could also include Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Trevor Bauer, but Collmenter should still be better than league average.
Don't be too alarmed by the fairly high ERA projected for Michael Pineda. Pineda's moving to a much more difficult environment to pitch in, both for the park and having to face the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even the Orioles had a league-average offense last year. The Yankees will take those solid, above-average numbers.
If you're looking for one projection to be wrong, it's Aroldis Chapman's, though I'm not sure if it'll be drastically low or terribly high. With his 100 mph fastball and erratic control, I wouldn't be surprised 15 years from now to find Chapman ended up with a similar career to Randy Johnson or Steve Dalkowski.
Since winning the World Series in 1993, the Blue Jays have been a franchise most epitomized by adequacy. With only a single exception among full seasons -- the 2004 team that went 67-94 -- the Jays have been between 74 and 88 wins every single season. That's enough to get you a shot at the division in some places, but Toronto plays in a division in which adequate is rarely good enough.
With Tampa Bay having shown that you can play with the Red Sox and Yankees, the Blue Jays took a chance on a new path, promoting former assistant general manager Alex Anthopoulos to the big chair. Anthopoulos, the latest in the new wave of GMs as comfortable in an economics class as a baseball diamond, has spent the last two-and-a-half years aggressively remaking Toronto into a 21st-century franchise.
Not every decision Anthopoulos has made has worked out -- no GM in history will have a record like Mike Tyson or Muhammad Ali -- but one acquisition in particular stands out both as a tremendous boon to the future and an example of what Anthopoulos brings to the franchise: The trade that brought in Brett Lawrie from the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Shaun Marcum.
Nobody can say Lawrie snuck up on anyone in 2011. While nobody really expected him to slug .580 in his initial stint in the majors, Lawrie's a former first-rounder and was at or near the top of everyone's Brewers prospect list. What made Lawrie such a quality acquisition is that, with his value down because of concerns about his defense and attitude, Anthopoulos looked past it and focused on Lawrie's tremendous upside rather than his shortcomings. Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver said it best: "I don't focus on what my players can't do well, I try to utilize what they do well."
So what's next for Lawrie? Given his age, just 21 last season, the increase in Lawrie's power is more likely maintained than a similar improvement for an older prospect. The younger the player, the greater the likelihood that gains will be maintained. The ZiPS projection system likes Lawrie in 2012 as much as scouts or anybody who watched him in Toronto last year, projecting a .275/.333/.498 line with 27 homers, 79 RBIs and 24 stolen bases. If Lawrie can continue to do an adequate job at third, he could challenge Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman for fantasy supremacy at the position. In the long-term, ZiPS gives Lawrie solid odds at becoming a 6-WAR player, which is a guy who has the potential to be in the running for the MVP in a career year, and projection systems aren't generally known for overenthusiasm.
Let's take a look at how the rest of last year's top rookies project for this season.
[h3]Sophomore projections[/h3]
Lawrie, of course, isn't the only headliner of 2012's sophomore class. Eric Hosmer in particular has just as much star potential as Lawrie, putting up a .293/.334/.465 line as a 21-year-old rookie. Hosmer isn't likely to ever be an 80-100 walk guy, but he puts the ball in play well enough that he should consistently hit better than .300 with decent power. A batting average on balls in play of only .314 in 2011 suggest there's not a lot of air in his solid rookie numbers.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore hitters[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year hitters for the 2012 season, sorted by runs created per 27 outs.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]BA[/th][th=""]OBP[/th][th=""]SLG[/th][th=""]HR[/th][th=""]RBI[/th][th=""]SB[/th][th=""]RC/27[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].304[/td][td].354[/td][td].474[/td][td]20[/td][td]81[/td][td]14[/td][td]6.61[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].275[/td][td].333[/td][td].498[/td][td]27[/td][td]79[/td][td]24[/td][td]6.34[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Belt[/td][td].268[/td][td].365[/td][td].462[/td][td]17[/td][td]64[/td][td]12[/td][td]6.03[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Goldschmidt[/td][td].250[/td][td].340[/td][td].472[/td][td]30[/td][td]92[/td][td]8[/td][td]5.85[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].279[/td][td].344[/td][td].455[/td][td]21[/td][td]83[/td][td]5[/td][td]5.81[/td][/tr][tr][td]Allen Craig[/td][td].276[/td][td].329[/td][td].454[/td][td]16[/td][td]68[/td][td]4[/td][td]5.68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wilson Ramos[/td][td].266[/td][td].338[/td][td].453[/td][td]17[/td][td]55[/td][td]0[/td][td]5.52[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td][td].261[/td][td].348[/td][td].410[/td][td]14[/td][td]55[/td][td]11[/td][td]5.30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td].259[/td][td].339[/td][td].392[/td][td]12[/td][td]54[/td][td]38[/td][td]5.28[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Duda[/td][td].256[/td][td].338[/td][td].431[/td][td]17[/td][td]69[/td][td]1[/td][td]5.26[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td].274[/td][td].316[/td][td].436[/td][td]19[/td][td]81[/td][td]3[/td][td]5.14[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Kipnis[/td][td].258[/td][td].320[/td][td].420[/td][td]16[/td][td]67[/td][td]13[/td][td]5.07[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td].326[/td][td].403[/td][td]10[/td][td]66[/td][td]33[/td][td]4.86[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Guzman[/td][td].266[/td][td].324[/td][td].399[/td][td]11[/td][td]74[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.74[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td][td].253[/td][td].295[/td][td].437[/td][td]25[/td][td]91[/td][td]6[/td][td]4.62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lonnie Chisenhall[/td][td].255[/td][td].312[/td][td].404[/td][td]15[/td][td]73[/td][td]2[/td][td]4.56[/td][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Descalso[/td][td].263[/td][td].328[/td][td].378[/td][td]6[/td][td]54[/td][td]4[/td][td]4.49[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jemile Weeks[/td][td].267[/td][td].318[/td][td].374[/td][td]4[/td][td]48[/td][td]21[/td][td]4.41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Espinosa[/td][td].229[/td][td].309[/td][td].400[/td][td]20[/td][td]71[/td][td]17[/td][td]4.32[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td].229[/td][td].281[/td][td].442[/td][td]24[/td][td]80[/td][td]0[/td][td]4.31[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Reddick[/td][td].238[/td][td].289[/td][td].391[/td][td]15[/td][td]47[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.90[/td][/tr][/table]
Very few solid young hitters have had as difficult a path to the majors as Brandon Belt, who has to overcome the dried-up husk of Aubrey Huff's career, Melky Cabrera's likely status as the starting left fielder with Angel Pagan in center, and San Francisco's bizarre fascination with Brett Pill. Paul Goldschmidt plays in a very friendly park, doesn't have a lot of upside, and will always strike out a bit too much, but he has enough power to be a league average starter for a while, and his emergence after hitting .317/.407/.620 in his minor league career gives Arizona what it hoped to have in Juan Miranda.
Jason Heyward had a disappointing, injury-filled sophomore season, but that shouldn't make people wary of Freddie Freeman, as he should be the starting first baseman for the Atlanta Braves for a decade. Allen Craig is at his peak now and won't have a .917 OPS again, but he's still likely to remain a passable starter or an excellent fourth outfielder for years. Wilson Ramos should continue to grow from his 2011 rookie campaign and, at 24, has already made the Minnesota Twins regret the Matt Capps trade.
On the pitching side, Craig Kimbrel is no fluke, with a career strikeout rate of 15.4 per nine innings that resembles video game numbers more than actual major league numbers. Brandon Beachy was the least-heralded of Atlanta's young pitchers, but with a 3.12 FIP in the majors to go along with 10 strikeouts a game, he's making the most of a low-90s fastball.
[h4]MLB's best sophomore pitchers[/h4]
Projecting the top second-year pitchers for the 2012 season, sorted by ERA.
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]W[/th][th=""]L[/th][th=""]ERA[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB[/th][th=""]K[/th][/tr][tr][td]Craig Kimbrel[/td][td]6[/td][td]2[/td][td]2.21[/td][td]73.1[/td][td]39[/td][td]116[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kenley Jansen[/td][td]4[/td][td]1[/td][td]2.29[/td][td]63.0[/td][td]31[/td][td]98[/td][/tr][tr][td]Antonio Bastardo[/td][td]4[/td][td]2[/td][td]3.17[/td][td]48.1[/td][td]21[/td][td]59[/td][/tr][tr][td]Fernando Salas[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.21[/td][td]61.2[/td][td]21[/td][td]60[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]8[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.32[/td][td]152.0[/td][td]48[/td][td]166[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.54[/td][td]61.0[/td][td]26[/td][td]66[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mark Melancon[/td][td]5[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.59[/td][td]57.2[/td][td]20[/td][td]48[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td][td]11[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.60[/td][td]155.0[/td][td]58[/td][td]115[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alexi Ogando[/td][td]12[/td][td]7[/td][td]3.72[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]50[/td][td]121[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rex Brothers[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]3.74[/td][td]65.0[/td][td]39[/td][td]79[/td][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.75[/td][td]148.2[/td][td]52[/td][td]127[/td][/tr][tr][td]Vance Worley[/td][td]11[/td][td]9[/td][td]3.85[/td][td]168.1[/td][td]57[/td][td]137[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Sale[/td][td]10[/td][td]8[/td][td]3.95[/td][td]152.2[/td][td]75[/td][td]163[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex Cobb[/td][td]7[/td][td]5[/td][td]3.98[/td][td]122.0[/td][td]42[/td][td]91[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Collins[/td][td]4[/td][td]3[/td][td]4.02[/td][td]66.2[/td][td]42[/td][td]67[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]9[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.04[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]62[/td][td]168[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td][td]11[/td][td]7[/td][td]4.11[/td][td]157.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]143[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]10[/td][td]9[/td][td]4.15[/td][td]143.0[/td][td]49[/td][td]100[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Stutes[/td][td]5[/td][td]5[/td][td]4.25[/td][td]72.0[/td][td]40[/td][td]68[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aroldis Chapman[/td][td]8[/td][td]8[/td][td]4.34[/td][td]120.1[/td][td]82[/td][td]141[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td][td]13[/td][td]10[/td][td]4.44[/td][td]178.1[/td][td]60[/td][td]111[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][td]4.70[/td][td]159.0[/td][td]64[/td][td]122[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]10[/td][td]12[/td][td]4.85[/td][td]156.0[/td][td]61[/td][td]96[/td][/tr][/table]
Josh Collmenter is a good candidate to have a drop in performance in his second season, with his 2011 peripherals suggesting he pitched more like a 4.00 ERA. ZiPS projects Collmenter to be the worst starter in a possible 2013 rotation that could also include Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Trevor Bauer, but Collmenter should still be better than league average.
Don't be too alarmed by the fairly high ERA projected for Michael Pineda. Pineda's moving to a much more difficult environment to pitch in, both for the park and having to face the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Rays. Even the Orioles had a league-average offense last year. The Yankees will take those solid, above-average numbers.
If you're looking for one projection to be wrong, it's Aroldis Chapman's, though I'm not sure if it'll be drastically low or terribly high. With his 100 mph fastball and erratic control, I wouldn't be surprised 15 years from now to find Chapman ended up with a similar career to Randy Johnson or Steve Dalkowski.
Zach Britton still injured, O's revamping pitching philosophy.
Spoiler [+]
Nobody was expecting the Baltimore Orioles to instantly become playoff contenders in 2012, but today’s news out of Birdland is still depressing. According to Jim Duquette, Zach Britton‘s shoulder injury from late last season is “still lingering
Zach Britton still injured, O's revamping pitching philosophy.
Spoiler [+]
Nobody was expecting the Baltimore Orioles to instantly become playoff contenders in 2012, but today’s news out of Birdland is still depressing. According to Jim Duquette, Zach Britton‘s shoulder injury from late last season is “still lingering
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- 22,977
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Cespedes is probably 32
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