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Opening Day cannot get here fast enough.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Im going to be really mad if Snider doesn't get the LF job. I can't deal with Eric Thames and his popcorn muscles.
- 31,946
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- Aug 2, 2006
Im going to be really mad if Snider doesn't get the LF job. I can't deal with Eric Thames and his popcorn muscles.
- 10,371
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- Jan 3, 2011
Matt Bush strikes again.
- 10,371
- 653
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2011
Matt Bush strikes again.
Smoak underrated by Safeco.
Meaningless spring stats: The Yan Gomes example.
To get a better read on the backstop we have to look to his minor league career, as well as his scouting report. The problem with Gomes, who was drafted out of division II Barry University in the 10th round in ’09, is not his raw ability as much as it is in his approach. His mentality at the plate is what I like to call ‘hack-tastic.’ In his first full season in pro ball in ’10 he walked just 12 times in 259 at-bats. On the plus side he more than doubled that in 2011 at double-A (hitting just .250) but it remains to be seen if the approach sticks.
He’s a free-swinging player whose overall offensive ceiling is limited by his over-aggressive nature, which prevents him from working himself into hitter’s counts and getting better pitches to drive. One of the reasons that spring training stats are more or less useless is that players like Gomes often appear late in games against other minor league players and pitchers – or appear in split squad games which, again, feature a lot of minor league players. As well, big league pitchers are often “working on things
Spoiler [+]
Along with its 162-game schedule, lack of a clock, and structure as a series of one-on-one player matchups, baseball's embrace of nonstandardized stadiums sets it apart from the other major American team sports. The dimensions of the outfield and foul territory vary by ballpark, making it difficult to evaluate players' statistics. To determine how good a given player is, we need to separate his performance from the effects of his park.
Some of the players ranked between 301 and 350 on ESPN's top 500 list have seen their superficial statistics significantly boosted or burdened by their ballparks. For example, Justin Smoak's (No. 316) first full season in the majors looks disappointing no matter what adjustments you make, but his line appears slightly worse because he spent so much time in spacious Safeco Field. Without adjusting for Safeco's effects, Smoak's True Average (TAv) was a league-average .260. Accounting for the impact of his park -- using component park factors tailored to Smoak instead of generic ones applicable to the average left-handed hitter -- adds six points to that figure. Had he never left Texas, a launching pad for lefties, his statistics would have seemed more impressive, and he might have placed higher on the ESPN 500 without any actual change in underlying talent.
Most fans are familiar with the game's more extreme offensive environments -- Coors Field remains a hitter's heaven, Petco Park is where power goes to die -- but there are stories like Smoak's all across baseball. Here are other hitters and pitchers who are probably being underrated or overrated based on how their ballpark affected them in 2011. (Note: Players are listed with their 2011 teams. Some may be on different clubs this season.):
[h3]Hitters helped by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .315, Adjusted TAv: .293)
Gonzalez is the poster boy for the Coors Field effect. During his three seasons in Colorado, Gonzalez has hit .347/.404/.653 at home and a pedestrian .271/.325/.452 on the road, with more than two-thirds of his home runs coming in Coors. While Gonzalez's value might melt away if he ever put on another uniform, he's not really a mile-high mirage, since most hitters can't exploit Coors like he can.
Seth Smith, Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .293, Adjusted: .274)
Smith placed 11 spots below Smoak at number 327 on the top 500 list, but it's unlikely that he would have ranked so high had he not been hitting in Denver's thin air. He won't get the same helping hand from his ballpark this season: The PECOTA projection system says that pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum will lower his TAv by roughly five points, bringing him down to a more pedestrian .273.
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (Unadjusted TAv: .312, Adjusted: .297)
The Ballpark in Arlington is the best place in baseball to hit home runs, and lefties receive the biggest boost of all thanks to the shallow fences in right field and right-center. Sure enough, Hamilton has hit 61 of his 99 home runs as a Ranger at home, which might make teams think twice before making an offer when he hits the free agent market later this year.
[h3]Hitters hurt by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireTorii Hunter's power numbers aren't helped by the Big A.
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels (Unadjusted TAv: .271, Adjusted: .285)
In the AL, only Kauffman Stadium is stingier than Angel Stadium when it comes to allowing the long ball, which makes Hunter's string of four consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons in Anaheim all the more impressive.
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (Unadjusted TAv: .234, Adjusted: .247)
Ichiro's dramatic decline last season wasn't an illusion, but he didn't quite sink to the depths that his unadjusted stats might suggest. Even more so than Smoak, he suffered from playing in Safeco.
Casey Kotchman, Tampa Bay Rays (Unadjusted TAv: .290, Adjusted: .300)
Kotchman singled in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances last season, the sixth-highest rate in the AL. Considering singles were scarcer in Tropicana Field than in any other ballpark in baseball, his surprisingly successful season may have been even more successful than we thought.
[h3]Pitchers helped by their parks[/h3]
Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (Unadjusted TAv against: .266, Adjusted .291)
The Padres' plan when they signed Harang a year ago was simple: Put a fly ball pitcher who'd fallen on hard times in Petco Park, then watch those flies die in the outfield. The plan worked to perfection, as Harang recorded his lowest home run rate since 2005 and a career-low ERA. Dodger Stadium suppresses homers almost as much as Petco, so Harang may survive the move to LA mostly intact.
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (Unadjusted TAv against: .259, Adjusted: .279)
As if teams needed another reason to avoid Oswalt besides his balky back, the 34-year-old's ballpark may have made him look a bit better than he was. In some circles, Citizens Bank Park retains a reputation as a home run park, but the stats no longer support it. The Phillies' stadium had the sixth-lowest home run factor in the league last season, which helps explain how Oswalt recorded his best home run rate since 2007. No wonder he's still looking for work.
[h3]Pitchers hurt by their parks[/h3]
Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (Unadjusted TAv against: .288, Adjusted: .274)
Wakefield retired over the winter, but if he'd gone on the Petco plan instead, he might have extended his career even further. Wakefield allowed doubles to 6.6 percent of the batters he faced, the highest rate of any pitcher with at least 120 innings pitched. The park that inflates the rate of doubles allowed more than any other? Fenway.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (Unadjusted TAv against: .267, Adjusted: .254)
Rogers Centre had the AL's third highest park factor for homers and inflated doubles and triples almost as much. That's bad news for a fly ball prone pitcher like Morrow.
Alexi Ogando, Rangers (Unadjusted: .239, Adjusted: .259)
The home run park factor that was such good news for Hamilton works the other way for Ogando and the rest of his Ranger rotation-mates. Although Ogando has handled the hitter's park well thus far, he'd still be better off almost anywhere other than Arlington.
Some of the players ranked between 301 and 350 on ESPN's top 500 list have seen their superficial statistics significantly boosted or burdened by their ballparks. For example, Justin Smoak's (No. 316) first full season in the majors looks disappointing no matter what adjustments you make, but his line appears slightly worse because he spent so much time in spacious Safeco Field. Without adjusting for Safeco's effects, Smoak's True Average (TAv) was a league-average .260. Accounting for the impact of his park -- using component park factors tailored to Smoak instead of generic ones applicable to the average left-handed hitter -- adds six points to that figure. Had he never left Texas, a launching pad for lefties, his statistics would have seemed more impressive, and he might have placed higher on the ESPN 500 without any actual change in underlying talent.
Most fans are familiar with the game's more extreme offensive environments -- Coors Field remains a hitter's heaven, Petco Park is where power goes to die -- but there are stories like Smoak's all across baseball. Here are other hitters and pitchers who are probably being underrated or overrated based on how their ballpark affected them in 2011. (Note: Players are listed with their 2011 teams. Some may be on different clubs this season.):
[h3]Hitters helped by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .315, Adjusted TAv: .293)
Gonzalez is the poster boy for the Coors Field effect. During his three seasons in Colorado, Gonzalez has hit .347/.404/.653 at home and a pedestrian .271/.325/.452 on the road, with more than two-thirds of his home runs coming in Coors. While Gonzalez's value might melt away if he ever put on another uniform, he's not really a mile-high mirage, since most hitters can't exploit Coors like he can.
Seth Smith, Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .293, Adjusted: .274)
Smith placed 11 spots below Smoak at number 327 on the top 500 list, but it's unlikely that he would have ranked so high had he not been hitting in Denver's thin air. He won't get the same helping hand from his ballpark this season: The PECOTA projection system says that pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum will lower his TAv by roughly five points, bringing him down to a more pedestrian .273.
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (Unadjusted TAv: .312, Adjusted: .297)
The Ballpark in Arlington is the best place in baseball to hit home runs, and lefties receive the biggest boost of all thanks to the shallow fences in right field and right-center. Sure enough, Hamilton has hit 61 of his 99 home runs as a Ranger at home, which might make teams think twice before making an offer when he hits the free agent market later this year.
[h3]Hitters hurt by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireTorii Hunter's power numbers aren't helped by the Big A.
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels (Unadjusted TAv: .271, Adjusted: .285)
In the AL, only Kauffman Stadium is stingier than Angel Stadium when it comes to allowing the long ball, which makes Hunter's string of four consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons in Anaheim all the more impressive.
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (Unadjusted TAv: .234, Adjusted: .247)
Ichiro's dramatic decline last season wasn't an illusion, but he didn't quite sink to the depths that his unadjusted stats might suggest. Even more so than Smoak, he suffered from playing in Safeco.
Casey Kotchman, Tampa Bay Rays (Unadjusted TAv: .290, Adjusted: .300)
Kotchman singled in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances last season, the sixth-highest rate in the AL. Considering singles were scarcer in Tropicana Field than in any other ballpark in baseball, his surprisingly successful season may have been even more successful than we thought.
[h3]Pitchers helped by their parks[/h3]
Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (Unadjusted TAv against: .266, Adjusted .291)
The Padres' plan when they signed Harang a year ago was simple: Put a fly ball pitcher who'd fallen on hard times in Petco Park, then watch those flies die in the outfield. The plan worked to perfection, as Harang recorded his lowest home run rate since 2005 and a career-low ERA. Dodger Stadium suppresses homers almost as much as Petco, so Harang may survive the move to LA mostly intact.
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (Unadjusted TAv against: .259, Adjusted: .279)
As if teams needed another reason to avoid Oswalt besides his balky back, the 34-year-old's ballpark may have made him look a bit better than he was. In some circles, Citizens Bank Park retains a reputation as a home run park, but the stats no longer support it. The Phillies' stadium had the sixth-lowest home run factor in the league last season, which helps explain how Oswalt recorded his best home run rate since 2007. No wonder he's still looking for work.
[h3]Pitchers hurt by their parks[/h3]
Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (Unadjusted TAv against: .288, Adjusted: .274)
Wakefield retired over the winter, but if he'd gone on the Petco plan instead, he might have extended his career even further. Wakefield allowed doubles to 6.6 percent of the batters he faced, the highest rate of any pitcher with at least 120 innings pitched. The park that inflates the rate of doubles allowed more than any other? Fenway.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (Unadjusted TAv against: .267, Adjusted: .254)
Rogers Centre had the AL's third highest park factor for homers and inflated doubles and triples almost as much. That's bad news for a fly ball prone pitcher like Morrow.
Alexi Ogando, Rangers (Unadjusted: .239, Adjusted: .259)
The home run park factor that was such good news for Hamilton works the other way for Ogando and the rest of his Ranger rotation-mates. Although Ogando has handled the hitter's park well thus far, he'd still be better off almost anywhere other than Arlington.
Meaningless spring stats: The Yan Gomes example.
Spoiler [+]
Every year it happens in spring training: A previously unknown (by the general fan population and mainstream media) minor league player posts dazzling statistics in spring training and everyone starts singing the praises of said player.
This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.
This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.
To get a better read on the backstop we have to look to his minor league career, as well as his scouting report. The problem with Gomes, who was drafted out of division II Barry University in the 10th round in ’09, is not his raw ability as much as it is in his approach. His mentality at the plate is what I like to call ‘hack-tastic.’ In his first full season in pro ball in ’10 he walked just 12 times in 259 at-bats. On the plus side he more than doubled that in 2011 at double-A (hitting just .250) but it remains to be seen if the approach sticks.
He’s a free-swinging player whose overall offensive ceiling is limited by his over-aggressive nature, which prevents him from working himself into hitter’s counts and getting better pitches to drive. One of the reasons that spring training stats are more or less useless is that players like Gomes often appear late in games against other minor league players and pitchers – or appear in split squad games which, again, feature a lot of minor league players. As well, big league pitchers are often “working on things
Smoak underrated by Safeco.
Meaningless spring stats: The Yan Gomes example.
To get a better read on the backstop we have to look to his minor league career, as well as his scouting report. The problem with Gomes, who was drafted out of division II Barry University in the 10th round in ’09, is not his raw ability as much as it is in his approach. His mentality at the plate is what I like to call ‘hack-tastic.’ In his first full season in pro ball in ’10 he walked just 12 times in 259 at-bats. On the plus side he more than doubled that in 2011 at double-A (hitting just .250) but it remains to be seen if the approach sticks.
He’s a free-swinging player whose overall offensive ceiling is limited by his over-aggressive nature, which prevents him from working himself into hitter’s counts and getting better pitches to drive. One of the reasons that spring training stats are more or less useless is that players like Gomes often appear late in games against other minor league players and pitchers – or appear in split squad games which, again, feature a lot of minor league players. As well, big league pitchers are often “working on things
Spoiler [+]
Along with its 162-game schedule, lack of a clock, and structure as a series of one-on-one player matchups, baseball's embrace of nonstandardized stadiums sets it apart from the other major American team sports. The dimensions of the outfield and foul territory vary by ballpark, making it difficult to evaluate players' statistics. To determine how good a given player is, we need to separate his performance from the effects of his park.
Some of the players ranked between 301 and 350 on ESPN's top 500 list have seen their superficial statistics significantly boosted or burdened by their ballparks. For example, Justin Smoak's (No. 316) first full season in the majors looks disappointing no matter what adjustments you make, but his line appears slightly worse because he spent so much time in spacious Safeco Field. Without adjusting for Safeco's effects, Smoak's True Average (TAv) was a league-average .260. Accounting for the impact of his park -- using component park factors tailored to Smoak instead of generic ones applicable to the average left-handed hitter -- adds six points to that figure. Had he never left Texas, a launching pad for lefties, his statistics would have seemed more impressive, and he might have placed higher on the ESPN 500 without any actual change in underlying talent.
Most fans are familiar with the game's more extreme offensive environments -- Coors Field remains a hitter's heaven, Petco Park is where power goes to die -- but there are stories like Smoak's all across baseball. Here are other hitters and pitchers who are probably being underrated or overrated based on how their ballpark affected them in 2011. (Note: Players are listed with their 2011 teams. Some may be on different clubs this season.):
[h3]Hitters helped by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .315, Adjusted TAv: .293)
Gonzalez is the poster boy for the Coors Field effect. During his three seasons in Colorado, Gonzalez has hit .347/.404/.653 at home and a pedestrian .271/.325/.452 on the road, with more than two-thirds of his home runs coming in Coors. While Gonzalez's value might melt away if he ever put on another uniform, he's not really a mile-high mirage, since most hitters can't exploit Coors like he can.
Seth Smith, Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .293, Adjusted: .274)
Smith placed 11 spots below Smoak at number 327 on the top 500 list, but it's unlikely that he would have ranked so high had he not been hitting in Denver's thin air. He won't get the same helping hand from his ballpark this season: The PECOTA projection system says that pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum will lower his TAv by roughly five points, bringing him down to a more pedestrian .273.
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (Unadjusted TAv: .312, Adjusted: .297)
The Ballpark in Arlington is the best place in baseball to hit home runs, and lefties receive the biggest boost of all thanks to the shallow fences in right field and right-center. Sure enough, Hamilton has hit 61 of his 99 home runs as a Ranger at home, which might make teams think twice before making an offer when he hits the free agent market later this year.
[h3]Hitters hurt by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireTorii Hunter's power numbers aren't helped by the Big A.
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels (Unadjusted TAv: .271, Adjusted: .285)
In the AL, only Kauffman Stadium is stingier than Angel Stadium when it comes to allowing the long ball, which makes Hunter's string of four consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons in Anaheim all the more impressive.
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (Unadjusted TAv: .234, Adjusted: .247)
Ichiro's dramatic decline last season wasn't an illusion, but he didn't quite sink to the depths that his unadjusted stats might suggest. Even more so than Smoak, he suffered from playing in Safeco.
Casey Kotchman, Tampa Bay Rays (Unadjusted TAv: .290, Adjusted: .300)
Kotchman singled in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances last season, the sixth-highest rate in the AL. Considering singles were scarcer in Tropicana Field than in any other ballpark in baseball, his surprisingly successful season may have been even more successful than we thought.
[h3]Pitchers helped by their parks[/h3]
Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (Unadjusted TAv against: .266, Adjusted .291)
The Padres' plan when they signed Harang a year ago was simple: Put a fly ball pitcher who'd fallen on hard times in Petco Park, then watch those flies die in the outfield. The plan worked to perfection, as Harang recorded his lowest home run rate since 2005 and a career-low ERA. Dodger Stadium suppresses homers almost as much as Petco, so Harang may survive the move to LA mostly intact.
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (Unadjusted TAv against: .259, Adjusted: .279)
As if teams needed another reason to avoid Oswalt besides his balky back, the 34-year-old's ballpark may have made him look a bit better than he was. In some circles, Citizens Bank Park retains a reputation as a home run park, but the stats no longer support it. The Phillies' stadium had the sixth-lowest home run factor in the league last season, which helps explain how Oswalt recorded his best home run rate since 2007. No wonder he's still looking for work.
[h3]Pitchers hurt by their parks[/h3]
Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (Unadjusted TAv against: .288, Adjusted: .274)
Wakefield retired over the winter, but if he'd gone on the Petco plan instead, he might have extended his career even further. Wakefield allowed doubles to 6.6 percent of the batters he faced, the highest rate of any pitcher with at least 120 innings pitched. The park that inflates the rate of doubles allowed more than any other? Fenway.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (Unadjusted TAv against: .267, Adjusted: .254)
Rogers Centre had the AL's third highest park factor for homers and inflated doubles and triples almost as much. That's bad news for a fly ball prone pitcher like Morrow.
Alexi Ogando, Rangers (Unadjusted: .239, Adjusted: .259)
The home run park factor that was such good news for Hamilton works the other way for Ogando and the rest of his Ranger rotation-mates. Although Ogando has handled the hitter's park well thus far, he'd still be better off almost anywhere other than Arlington.
Some of the players ranked between 301 and 350 on ESPN's top 500 list have seen their superficial statistics significantly boosted or burdened by their ballparks. For example, Justin Smoak's (No. 316) first full season in the majors looks disappointing no matter what adjustments you make, but his line appears slightly worse because he spent so much time in spacious Safeco Field. Without adjusting for Safeco's effects, Smoak's True Average (TAv) was a league-average .260. Accounting for the impact of his park -- using component park factors tailored to Smoak instead of generic ones applicable to the average left-handed hitter -- adds six points to that figure. Had he never left Texas, a launching pad for lefties, his statistics would have seemed more impressive, and he might have placed higher on the ESPN 500 without any actual change in underlying talent.
Most fans are familiar with the game's more extreme offensive environments -- Coors Field remains a hitter's heaven, Petco Park is where power goes to die -- but there are stories like Smoak's all across baseball. Here are other hitters and pitchers who are probably being underrated or overrated based on how their ballpark affected them in 2011. (Note: Players are listed with their 2011 teams. Some may be on different clubs this season.):
[h3]Hitters helped by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .315, Adjusted TAv: .293)
Gonzalez is the poster boy for the Coors Field effect. During his three seasons in Colorado, Gonzalez has hit .347/.404/.653 at home and a pedestrian .271/.325/.452 on the road, with more than two-thirds of his home runs coming in Coors. While Gonzalez's value might melt away if he ever put on another uniform, he's not really a mile-high mirage, since most hitters can't exploit Coors like he can.
Seth Smith, Rockies (Unadjusted TAv: .293, Adjusted: .274)
Smith placed 11 spots below Smoak at number 327 on the top 500 list, but it's unlikely that he would have ranked so high had he not been hitting in Denver's thin air. He won't get the same helping hand from his ballpark this season: The PECOTA projection system says that pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum will lower his TAv by roughly five points, bringing him down to a more pedestrian .273.
Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers (Unadjusted TAv: .312, Adjusted: .297)
The Ballpark in Arlington is the best place in baseball to hit home runs, and lefties receive the biggest boost of all thanks to the shallow fences in right field and right-center. Sure enough, Hamilton has hit 61 of his 99 home runs as a Ranger at home, which might make teams think twice before making an offer when he hits the free agent market later this year.
[h3]Hitters hurt by their parks (min. 500 PA)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Kelvin Kuo/US PresswireTorii Hunter's power numbers aren't helped by the Big A.
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles Angels (Unadjusted TAv: .271, Adjusted: .285)
In the AL, only Kauffman Stadium is stingier than Angel Stadium when it comes to allowing the long ball, which makes Hunter's string of four consecutive 20-plus-homer seasons in Anaheim all the more impressive.
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (Unadjusted TAv: .234, Adjusted: .247)
Ichiro's dramatic decline last season wasn't an illusion, but he didn't quite sink to the depths that his unadjusted stats might suggest. Even more so than Smoak, he suffered from playing in Safeco.
Casey Kotchman, Tampa Bay Rays (Unadjusted TAv: .290, Adjusted: .300)
Kotchman singled in 20.8 percent of his plate appearances last season, the sixth-highest rate in the AL. Considering singles were scarcer in Tropicana Field than in any other ballpark in baseball, his surprisingly successful season may have been even more successful than we thought.
[h3]Pitchers helped by their parks[/h3]
Aaron Harang, San Diego Padres (Unadjusted TAv against: .266, Adjusted .291)
The Padres' plan when they signed Harang a year ago was simple: Put a fly ball pitcher who'd fallen on hard times in Petco Park, then watch those flies die in the outfield. The plan worked to perfection, as Harang recorded his lowest home run rate since 2005 and a career-low ERA. Dodger Stadium suppresses homers almost as much as Petco, so Harang may survive the move to LA mostly intact.
Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies (Unadjusted TAv against: .259, Adjusted: .279)
As if teams needed another reason to avoid Oswalt besides his balky back, the 34-year-old's ballpark may have made him look a bit better than he was. In some circles, Citizens Bank Park retains a reputation as a home run park, but the stats no longer support it. The Phillies' stadium had the sixth-lowest home run factor in the league last season, which helps explain how Oswalt recorded his best home run rate since 2007. No wonder he's still looking for work.
[h3]Pitchers hurt by their parks[/h3]
Tim Wakefield, Boston Red Sox (Unadjusted TAv against: .288, Adjusted: .274)
Wakefield retired over the winter, but if he'd gone on the Petco plan instead, he might have extended his career even further. Wakefield allowed doubles to 6.6 percent of the batters he faced, the highest rate of any pitcher with at least 120 innings pitched. The park that inflates the rate of doubles allowed more than any other? Fenway.
Brandon Morrow, Toronto Blue Jays (Unadjusted TAv against: .267, Adjusted: .254)
Rogers Centre had the AL's third highest park factor for homers and inflated doubles and triples almost as much. That's bad news for a fly ball prone pitcher like Morrow.
Alexi Ogando, Rangers (Unadjusted: .239, Adjusted: .259)
The home run park factor that was such good news for Hamilton works the other way for Ogando and the rest of his Ranger rotation-mates. Although Ogando has handled the hitter's park well thus far, he'd still be better off almost anywhere other than Arlington.
Meaningless spring stats: The Yan Gomes example.
Spoiler [+]
Every year it happens in spring training: A previously unknown (by the general fan population and mainstream media) minor league player posts dazzling statistics in spring training and everyone starts singing the praises of said player.
This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.
This year it happens to be catcher Yan Gomes, 24, in the Toronto Blue Jays’ spring camp. After Tuesday’s game he was hitting .474 with a slugging percentage of .842 in 19 at-bats. A very impressive performance but this is also a very small-sample size. Check out the Twitter love for Gomes as fans interact with Toronto sports radio personality Mike Wilner.
To get a better read on the backstop we have to look to his minor league career, as well as his scouting report. The problem with Gomes, who was drafted out of division II Barry University in the 10th round in ’09, is not his raw ability as much as it is in his approach. His mentality at the plate is what I like to call ‘hack-tastic.’ In his first full season in pro ball in ’10 he walked just 12 times in 259 at-bats. On the plus side he more than doubled that in 2011 at double-A (hitting just .250) but it remains to be seen if the approach sticks.
He’s a free-swinging player whose overall offensive ceiling is limited by his over-aggressive nature, which prevents him from working himself into hitter’s counts and getting better pitches to drive. One of the reasons that spring training stats are more or less useless is that players like Gomes often appear late in games against other minor league players and pitchers – or appear in split squad games which, again, feature a lot of minor league players. As well, big league pitchers are often “working on things
xxpizzo23
Banned
- 114
- 10
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2011
Im hoping the Phillies offense can come around this season esp with the injuries we have to deal with, seems like theres gonna be alot of 1-2 run games if the pitching can stay consistent. I NEED ANOTHER PARADE IN PHILLY 08 was amazing going down broad st. Its not looking to good for utley and our INF right now, but for some reason i think the will find a way around it, hopefully.
xxpizzo23
Banned
- 114
- 10
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2011
Im hoping the Phillies offense can come around this season esp with the injuries we have to deal with, seems like theres gonna be alot of 1-2 run games if the pitching can stay consistent. I NEED ANOTHER PARADE IN PHILLY 08 was amazing going down broad st. Its not looking to good for utley and our INF right now, but for some reason i think the will find a way around it, hopefully.
Will Strasburg be the same?
Fantasy breakout bats.
Machado holds his own with big leaguers.
Steal sleepers for 2012.
Casting the first ballot for Chipper.
Greg Holland: KC's closer of the future.
Matt Bush arrested for DUI.
Spoiler [+]
[h1]Will Strasburg be the same?[/h1][h3]A look at recent Tommy John surgery survivors can help us find the answer[/h3]
Updated: March 23, 2012, 10:16 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | FanGraphs
AP Photo/Jacquelyn MartinStephen Strasburg's 1.50 ERA in 24 innings late last season was certainly encouraging.
Before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John surgery, Stephen Strasburg was pitching at a level few men have been able to match, striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings in 12 big league starts in 2010. Strasburg is nearly 19 months removed from surgery, and the Washington Nationals are hopeful that their ace will be able to match his previous dominance and establish himself as one of the National League's best starting pitchers.
Is that a realistic goal for a pitcher in his first season after returning from elbow surgery? A look at recent history will help us find the answer.
To find out what we can expect from Strasburg, I looked at six other starting pitchers who are Tommy John survivors and measured their performance in their first two years after surgery against their performance in the season preceding the surgery.
While we would generally like to have a larger sample to draw from, we also have to be cognizant of the fact that medical technology has advanced in this area, and going too far back into history could introduce cases where the rehabilitation procedures were not very similar to what Strasburg went through. We also want to pick younger pitchers so as to not introduce age-related decline into the results. For these reasons, we've limited ourselves to just starting pitchers who had Tommy John surgery in the past 10 years and were under the age of 30 at the time.
For each pitcher, we'll list his innings-pitched total as well as his FIP-, which is an index metric that scales a pitcher's FIP to league average in that season: 100 is league average, and just like ERA, higher is worse.
[h3]Adam Eaton, 2002[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 116 IP, 111 FIP-
First season back (2003): 183 IP, 101 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 199 IP, 106 FIP-
Like Strasburg, Eaton was at an early point in his career when he needed elbow surgery. He returned to the mound in his age-25 season and performed better than he had prior to the surgery; in fact, his first year back was the best season of his career. He regressed slightly in Year 2, and then lingering arm problems derailed his 2006 season. His career went downhill quickly after that.
[h3]Chris Carpenter, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 216 IP, 101 FIP-
First season back (2004): 182 IP, 89 FIP-
Second season back (2005): 242 IP, 69 FIP-
Carpenter is the poster child for how successful one can be after having Tommy John surgery. Injuries cost him most of 2002 and all of 2003, but when he returned to the mound at age 29, he was back to performing at a level equal to his career best up to that point, and better than he had performed in his last healthy season prior to the injury. He would go on to have the best year of his career in his second season back and remain a dominant -- if not always healthy -- starter for most of the last decade.
[h3]A.J. Burnett, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2002): 204 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2004): 120 IP, 75 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 209 IP, 75 FIP-
After a breakout season as a 25-year-old, Burnett went under the knife and missed nearly all of the 2003 season. He returned in June 2004 and looked like he hadn't missed a beat, performing just as well in his first season back as he had before surgery. He sustained that excellence in Year 2 and showed that he could once again handle a full season's workload. Despite some subsequent inconsistency, Burnett has remained one of the more durable starters in baseball ever since.
[h3]Francisco Liriano, 2006[/h3]
Last healthy season (2006): 121 IP, 58 FIP-
First season back (200
: 76 IP, 91 FIP-
Second season back (2009): 136 IP, 112 FIP-
Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006, putting up the kind of season that matched what Strasburg did as a rookie, but persisting arm problems cut his season short and forced him to miss the entire 2007 campaign. When he returned in 2008, his velocity was down significantly, and the Twins had him spend the first few months of the season in the minors. When they called him up, he showed that he could still get hitters out, but he was nothing close to the dominant ace he'd been before. He regressed even further back in his second season after surgery, and while he was excellent in 2010, he took a big step back last season.
[h3]Chris Capuano, 2008[/h3]
Last healthy season (2007): 150 IP, 100 FIP-
First season back (2010): 66 IP, 107 FIP-
Second season back (2011): 186 IP, 108 FIP-
This was actually a second go-round for Capuano, who also had an elbow ligament replaced when he was in the minor leagues in 2002. While the average time frame for recovery from Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months, Capuano ended up missing all of the 2008 and '09 seasons due to his injury, and he had to pitch his way back to the big leagues in 2010. Once he landed a job back in a major league rotation, he was only slightly worse than he had been in 2007. Last year, he was able to handle a full starter's workload and was rewarded with a two-year contract from the Dodgers this winter.
[h3]Ben Sheets, 2009[/h3]
Last healthy season (200: 198 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2010): 119 IP, 117 FIP-
Second season back: Out of baseball
And now, for the cautionary tale. Sheets was one of the premier pitchers in baseball early in his career, and even while he battled health problems from 2006 to 2008, he remained excellent when he was on the mound. His elbow finally gave out after the 2008 season, and he spent 2009 in rehab after surgery. The success of prior Tommy John recoveries gave the A's enough confidence to sign him to a $10 million contract for 2010, but he simply wasn't the same pitcher he was before the surgery, and his elbow gave out again in July of that year. Barring an unforeseen comeback, Sheets' career appears to be over.
The results for these six pitchers should be mostly encouraging for Strasburg. While Sheets and Liriano weren't able to match their prior form, both had extensive injury issues even before they underwent Tommy John surgery. The successful returns of Carpenter, Burnett, Capuano and Eaton all suggest that the time spent on the sidelines doesn't necessarily result in a lesser pitcher, even in the first year back on the mound. Strasburg is unlikely to repeat his 2010 performance for the simple reason that no pitcher could be expected to be that good for any sustained period of time, but recent performances by Tommy John survivors suggest that Strasburg could be expected to be among the best pitchers in the game this year.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Updated: March 23, 2012, 10:16 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | FanGraphs
Before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John surgery, Stephen Strasburg was pitching at a level few men have been able to match, striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings in 12 big league starts in 2010. Strasburg is nearly 19 months removed from surgery, and the Washington Nationals are hopeful that their ace will be able to match his previous dominance and establish himself as one of the National League's best starting pitchers.
Is that a realistic goal for a pitcher in his first season after returning from elbow surgery? A look at recent history will help us find the answer.
To find out what we can expect from Strasburg, I looked at six other starting pitchers who are Tommy John survivors and measured their performance in their first two years after surgery against their performance in the season preceding the surgery.
While we would generally like to have a larger sample to draw from, we also have to be cognizant of the fact that medical technology has advanced in this area, and going too far back into history could introduce cases where the rehabilitation procedures were not very similar to what Strasburg went through. We also want to pick younger pitchers so as to not introduce age-related decline into the results. For these reasons, we've limited ourselves to just starting pitchers who had Tommy John surgery in the past 10 years and were under the age of 30 at the time.
For each pitcher, we'll list his innings-pitched total as well as his FIP-, which is an index metric that scales a pitcher's FIP to league average in that season: 100 is league average, and just like ERA, higher is worse.
[h3]Adam Eaton, 2002[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 116 IP, 111 FIP-
First season back (2003): 183 IP, 101 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 199 IP, 106 FIP-
Like Strasburg, Eaton was at an early point in his career when he needed elbow surgery. He returned to the mound in his age-25 season and performed better than he had prior to the surgery; in fact, his first year back was the best season of his career. He regressed slightly in Year 2, and then lingering arm problems derailed his 2006 season. His career went downhill quickly after that.
[h3]Chris Carpenter, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 216 IP, 101 FIP-
First season back (2004): 182 IP, 89 FIP-
Second season back (2005): 242 IP, 69 FIP-
Carpenter is the poster child for how successful one can be after having Tommy John surgery. Injuries cost him most of 2002 and all of 2003, but when he returned to the mound at age 29, he was back to performing at a level equal to his career best up to that point, and better than he had performed in his last healthy season prior to the injury. He would go on to have the best year of his career in his second season back and remain a dominant -- if not always healthy -- starter for most of the last decade.
[h3]A.J. Burnett, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2002): 204 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2004): 120 IP, 75 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 209 IP, 75 FIP-
After a breakout season as a 25-year-old, Burnett went under the knife and missed nearly all of the 2003 season. He returned in June 2004 and looked like he hadn't missed a beat, performing just as well in his first season back as he had before surgery. He sustained that excellence in Year 2 and showed that he could once again handle a full season's workload. Despite some subsequent inconsistency, Burnett has remained one of the more durable starters in baseball ever since.
[h3]Francisco Liriano, 2006[/h3]
Last healthy season (2006): 121 IP, 58 FIP-
First season back (200
: 76 IP, 91 FIP-Second season back (2009): 136 IP, 112 FIP-
Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006, putting up the kind of season that matched what Strasburg did as a rookie, but persisting arm problems cut his season short and forced him to miss the entire 2007 campaign. When he returned in 2008, his velocity was down significantly, and the Twins had him spend the first few months of the season in the minors. When they called him up, he showed that he could still get hitters out, but he was nothing close to the dominant ace he'd been before. He regressed even further back in his second season after surgery, and while he was excellent in 2010, he took a big step back last season.
[h3]Chris Capuano, 2008[/h3]
Last healthy season (2007): 150 IP, 100 FIP-
First season back (2010): 66 IP, 107 FIP-
Second season back (2011): 186 IP, 108 FIP-
This was actually a second go-round for Capuano, who also had an elbow ligament replaced when he was in the minor leagues in 2002. While the average time frame for recovery from Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months, Capuano ended up missing all of the 2008 and '09 seasons due to his injury, and he had to pitch his way back to the big leagues in 2010. Once he landed a job back in a major league rotation, he was only slightly worse than he had been in 2007. Last year, he was able to handle a full starter's workload and was rewarded with a two-year contract from the Dodgers this winter.
[h3]Ben Sheets, 2009[/h3]
Last healthy season (200
: 198 IP, 79 FIP-First season back (2010): 119 IP, 117 FIP-
Second season back: Out of baseball
And now, for the cautionary tale. Sheets was one of the premier pitchers in baseball early in his career, and even while he battled health problems from 2006 to 2008, he remained excellent when he was on the mound. His elbow finally gave out after the 2008 season, and he spent 2009 in rehab after surgery. The success of prior Tommy John recoveries gave the A's enough confidence to sign him to a $10 million contract for 2010, but he simply wasn't the same pitcher he was before the surgery, and his elbow gave out again in July of that year. Barring an unforeseen comeback, Sheets' career appears to be over.
The results for these six pitchers should be mostly encouraging for Strasburg. While Sheets and Liriano weren't able to match their prior form, both had extensive injury issues even before they underwent Tommy John surgery. The successful returns of Carpenter, Burnett, Capuano and Eaton all suggest that the time spent on the sidelines doesn't necessarily result in a lesser pitcher, even in the first year back on the mound. Strasburg is unlikely to repeat his 2010 performance for the simple reason that no pitcher could be expected to be that good for any sustained period of time, but recent performances by Tommy John survivors suggest that Strasburg could be expected to be among the best pitchers in the game this year.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Fantasy breakout bats.
Spoiler [+]
[h1]Fantasy breakout hitters[/h1][h3]A new formula predicts big things for Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie and Jay Bruce[/h3]
Updated: February 24, 2012, 9:20 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
AP Photo/Getty Images/Getty ImagesBrett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer and Jay Bruce are projected for fantasy greatness in 2012.
These projections also appear in the March 5 issue of ESPN The Magazine.
Computerized projections have come a long way in the last 15 years. With the constant march forward of technology, the models for projecting players are able to do a lot more than they could in the early days of sabermetrics.
While basic midpoint projections are very useful when applied correctly, fantasy players need more than that. After all, competing in your fantasy league isn't just an exercise in overall accuracy of evaluating players, but taking better calculated risks than the other guys.
To get an idea of the fantasy players with the biggest short-term upsides in 2012, we asked the ZiPS projection system to evaluate which players in each 5x5 fantasy category have the best odds of beating their established levels of play by a certain amount. (For players who spent time in the minors, we used minor league translations.)
For example, ZiPS says Evan Longoria has a 43 percent chance of beating his two-year home run average (27) by at least 10 jacks.
For breakout pitchers, click here.
[h4]Home runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 10 homers to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td]27[/td][td]43%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td]19[/td][td]39%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]30[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]21[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]17[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]22[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Montero[/td][td]20[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]19[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pedro Alvarez[/td][td]17[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Stanton[/td][td]36[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Home runs[/h3]
Despite already being one of the best players in baseball, ZiPS sees Longoria as having a big homer season or two in him. Still not 27 years old until after the 2012 season, Longoria still has the opportunity to develop more power, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Given Brett Lawrie's age, the odds that his 2011 power will represent a real step forward are quite high. A 29-year-old going from 8 total home runs to 27 total, despite playing harder levels, would be a reason for more skepticism, but in a 22-year-old, it's more likely a real improvement. Just don't expect Lawrie to hit .353 going forward as he did in Triple-A.
Like Lawrie, Eric Hosmer is also not done developing and has the potential to continue to improve his home run count.
You're probably surprised to see both Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton on this list. The former because he's been so terrible, and the latter because he's already one of the league's best home run hitters. Let's address them separately.
We all know Alvarez has been a big disappointment, but the power potential is still there. Besides, he could hit 30 homers in a full season of playing time and still be a liability in other facets of the game.
As for Stanton, his power is historically impressive given his age, and he's one of the few players in baseball with a real shot at hitting 50 home runs in a season. Of course, much of this depends on how the Marlins' new park plays.
[h4]RBIs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 20 RBIs to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]84[/td][td]34%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]67[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]87[/td][td]28%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]75[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]76[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]79[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td]79[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td]74[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mat Gamel[/td][td]72[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Domonic Brown[/td][td]52[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]RBIs[/h3]
For a player with Jay Bruce's isolated power (slugging-batting average) in a friendly park and on a team that finished in the top two in runs scored the last two seasons, his RBI totals, especially in 2010 when he had 70, are surprisingly on the low side. Given that he's still young enough (he turns 25 in April) to develop even more power, there's still significant upside in his RBI totals.
As you'll notice, Billy Butler, Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all appear in the top 10 for this category. The Royals' pitching isn't competitive yet, but an improving offense with more help on the horizon gives several of the young hitters on the team good shots at improving their RBI totals. Besides, most fantasy owners don't care all that much about the Royals' rotation.
As for Domonic Brown, ZiPS still likes him and projects a nice performance if he actually gets on the field. However, it's still unclear how much the Phillies like him, and he certainly won't knock in 60-plus runs if he ends up spending most of the year backing up Juan Pierre.
[h4]Batting average[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 30 points of BA to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].293[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td].305[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norichika Aoki[/td][td].298[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td]15%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Starlin Castro[/td][td].309[/td][td]13%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td].297[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td].273[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].283[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td].272[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].272[/td][td]7%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Batting average[/h3]
Yes, Hosmer appears on yet another list. He hit .293 as a 21-year-old rookie, and his low strikeout numbers and normal batting average on balls in play (.315) suggest there's nothing fluky about his ability to hit .300. In a lucky BABIP year, Hosmer's likely to be somewhere in the competition for the batting title. As you probably know, 21-year-old hitters who can be offensive pluses while playing first base tend to have bright futures.
Despite a career-low .244 batting average in 2011, Longoria's contact numbers didn't decline at all. In fact, Longoria's ability to expand his strike zone has improved, his 65 percent contact rate for balls outside the strike zone was his career-best, and his low .239 BABIP stands out like a sore thumb and is a good bet to normalize this year.
You may not know much about Jose Altuve, but he hit .327 across five minor league seasons. Though he's listed at 5-foot-7 (and some say he's shorter than that), Altuve has a knack for squaring up the ball, and could be one of the most valuable fantasy second basemen in 2012.
[h4]Runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 runs scored to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Asdrubal Cabrera[/td][td]63[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Heyward[/td][td]67[/td][td]35%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td]69[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]80[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]76[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Bourn[/td][td]89[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]58[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Zimmerman[/td][td]69[/td][td]17%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Troy Tulowitzki[/td][td]85[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td]52[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Runs[/h3]
Yunel Escobar has only scored 137 runs over the last two years despite a .353 OBP while playing for quality teams. With the Blue Jays' power-hitting lineup, Escobar's run totals should see marked improvement. And if guys like Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider can scratch their potential, watch out.
What's most amazing about Michael Bourn averaging 89 runs over the last two seasons is that he did most of that damage while hitting in a miserable Astros lineup. This strongly suggests that he could score even more for a major league offense. Bourn can find his own way to second easily, and Atlanta's superior table-clearers could get Bourn over the 100-run mark for the first time in his career.
Asdrubal Cabrera's two-year run totals were brought down a bit by injury in 2010, so expect him to be much more in line with his 2011 mark of 87. And if Shin-Soo Choo recaptures his 2010 form and Lonnie Chisenhall develops as expected, Cabrera could hit triple digits.
[h4]Stolen bases[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 steals to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td]36[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angel Pagan[/td][td]35[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carl Crawford[/td][td]33[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nyjer Morgan[/td][td]24[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Denard Span[/td][td]16[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][td]18[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Brantley[/td][td]19[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erick Aybar[/td][td]26[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew McCutchen[/td][td]28[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Young[/td][td]25[/td][td]8%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Stolen bases[/h3]
Amazingly, Jennings stole more bases in 67 games with the Rays last year (20) than he did in 89 games for Triple-A Durham (17). Fact is, the Rays are an aggressive team, and Jennings will continue to get the green light. That means that 50 to 60 stolen bases wouldn't shock anybody.
A healthier Carl Crawford recovering from a .289 OBP would do a lot to improve Crawford's paltry 18 stolen bases from 2011. He's unlikely to steal 60, and the Red Sox aren't as steal-happy as the Rays, but the team doesn't pull back the reins on its faster players. As bad as his 2011 season was, it's not as if Crawford is 35 years old. Expect a rebound.
Angel Pagan's projection depends on playing time, but it appears he will be the every-day center fielder for the Giants. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of pop in its lineup, so base stealing should be encouraged as that club will need to create runs. Pagan, who has swiped more than 30 bags in each of the last two seasons, should benefit.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Updated: February 24, 2012, 9:20 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
These projections also appear in the March 5 issue of ESPN The Magazine.
Computerized projections have come a long way in the last 15 years. With the constant march forward of technology, the models for projecting players are able to do a lot more than they could in the early days of sabermetrics.
While basic midpoint projections are very useful when applied correctly, fantasy players need more than that. After all, competing in your fantasy league isn't just an exercise in overall accuracy of evaluating players, but taking better calculated risks than the other guys.
To get an idea of the fantasy players with the biggest short-term upsides in 2012, we asked the ZiPS projection system to evaluate which players in each 5x5 fantasy category have the best odds of beating their established levels of play by a certain amount. (For players who spent time in the minors, we used minor league translations.)
For example, ZiPS says Evan Longoria has a 43 percent chance of beating his two-year home run average (27) by at least 10 jacks.
For breakout pitchers, click here.
[h4]Home runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 10 homers to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td]27[/td][td]43%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td]19[/td][td]39%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]30[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]21[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]17[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]22[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Montero[/td][td]20[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]19[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pedro Alvarez[/td][td]17[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Stanton[/td][td]36[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Home runs[/h3]
Despite already being one of the best players in baseball, ZiPS sees Longoria as having a big homer season or two in him. Still not 27 years old until after the 2012 season, Longoria still has the opportunity to develop more power, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Given Brett Lawrie's age, the odds that his 2011 power will represent a real step forward are quite high. A 29-year-old going from 8 total home runs to 27 total, despite playing harder levels, would be a reason for more skepticism, but in a 22-year-old, it's more likely a real improvement. Just don't expect Lawrie to hit .353 going forward as he did in Triple-A.
Like Lawrie, Eric Hosmer is also not done developing and has the potential to continue to improve his home run count.
You're probably surprised to see both Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton on this list. The former because he's been so terrible, and the latter because he's already one of the league's best home run hitters. Let's address them separately.
We all know Alvarez has been a big disappointment, but the power potential is still there. Besides, he could hit 30 homers in a full season of playing time and still be a liability in other facets of the game.
As for Stanton, his power is historically impressive given his age, and he's one of the few players in baseball with a real shot at hitting 50 home runs in a season. Of course, much of this depends on how the Marlins' new park plays.
[h4]RBIs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 20 RBIs to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]84[/td][td]34%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]67[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]87[/td][td]28%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]75[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]76[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]79[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td]79[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td]74[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mat Gamel[/td][td]72[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Domonic Brown[/td][td]52[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]RBIs[/h3]
For a player with Jay Bruce's isolated power (slugging-batting average) in a friendly park and on a team that finished in the top two in runs scored the last two seasons, his RBI totals, especially in 2010 when he had 70, are surprisingly on the low side. Given that he's still young enough (he turns 25 in April) to develop even more power, there's still significant upside in his RBI totals.
As you'll notice, Billy Butler, Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all appear in the top 10 for this category. The Royals' pitching isn't competitive yet, but an improving offense with more help on the horizon gives several of the young hitters on the team good shots at improving their RBI totals. Besides, most fantasy owners don't care all that much about the Royals' rotation.
As for Domonic Brown, ZiPS still likes him and projects a nice performance if he actually gets on the field. However, it's still unclear how much the Phillies like him, and he certainly won't knock in 60-plus runs if he ends up spending most of the year backing up Juan Pierre.
[h4]Batting average[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 30 points of BA to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].293[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td].305[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norichika Aoki[/td][td].298[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td]15%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Starlin Castro[/td][td].309[/td][td]13%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td].297[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td].273[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].283[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td].272[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].272[/td][td]7%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Batting average[/h3]
Yes, Hosmer appears on yet another list. He hit .293 as a 21-year-old rookie, and his low strikeout numbers and normal batting average on balls in play (.315) suggest there's nothing fluky about his ability to hit .300. In a lucky BABIP year, Hosmer's likely to be somewhere in the competition for the batting title. As you probably know, 21-year-old hitters who can be offensive pluses while playing first base tend to have bright futures.
Despite a career-low .244 batting average in 2011, Longoria's contact numbers didn't decline at all. In fact, Longoria's ability to expand his strike zone has improved, his 65 percent contact rate for balls outside the strike zone was his career-best, and his low .239 BABIP stands out like a sore thumb and is a good bet to normalize this year.
You may not know much about Jose Altuve, but he hit .327 across five minor league seasons. Though he's listed at 5-foot-7 (and some say he's shorter than that), Altuve has a knack for squaring up the ball, and could be one of the most valuable fantasy second basemen in 2012.
[h4]Runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 runs scored to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Asdrubal Cabrera[/td][td]63[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Heyward[/td][td]67[/td][td]35%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td]69[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]80[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]76[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Bourn[/td][td]89[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]58[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Zimmerman[/td][td]69[/td][td]17%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Troy Tulowitzki[/td][td]85[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td]52[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Runs[/h3]
Yunel Escobar has only scored 137 runs over the last two years despite a .353 OBP while playing for quality teams. With the Blue Jays' power-hitting lineup, Escobar's run totals should see marked improvement. And if guys like Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider can scratch their potential, watch out.
What's most amazing about Michael Bourn averaging 89 runs over the last two seasons is that he did most of that damage while hitting in a miserable Astros lineup. This strongly suggests that he could score even more for a major league offense. Bourn can find his own way to second easily, and Atlanta's superior table-clearers could get Bourn over the 100-run mark for the first time in his career.
Asdrubal Cabrera's two-year run totals were brought down a bit by injury in 2010, so expect him to be much more in line with his 2011 mark of 87. And if Shin-Soo Choo recaptures his 2010 form and Lonnie Chisenhall develops as expected, Cabrera could hit triple digits.
[h4]Stolen bases[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 steals to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td]36[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angel Pagan[/td][td]35[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carl Crawford[/td][td]33[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nyjer Morgan[/td][td]24[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Denard Span[/td][td]16[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][td]18[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Brantley[/td][td]19[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erick Aybar[/td][td]26[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew McCutchen[/td][td]28[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Young[/td][td]25[/td][td]8%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Stolen bases[/h3]
Amazingly, Jennings stole more bases in 67 games with the Rays last year (20) than he did in 89 games for Triple-A Durham (17). Fact is, the Rays are an aggressive team, and Jennings will continue to get the green light. That means that 50 to 60 stolen bases wouldn't shock anybody.
A healthier Carl Crawford recovering from a .289 OBP would do a lot to improve Crawford's paltry 18 stolen bases from 2011. He's unlikely to steal 60, and the Red Sox aren't as steal-happy as the Rays, but the team doesn't pull back the reins on its faster players. As bad as his 2011 season was, it's not as if Crawford is 35 years old. Expect a rebound.
Angel Pagan's projection depends on playing time, but it appears he will be the every-day center fielder for the Giants. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of pop in its lineup, so base stealing should be encouraged as that club will need to create runs. Pagan, who has swiped more than 30 bags in each of the last two seasons, should benefit.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Machado holds his own with big leaguers.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Machado holds his own with big leaguers
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:49
PM ET
Some notes from spring training games I hit earlier this week.
• Tsuyoshi Wada was the lower-profile of the two major Baltimore Orioles signings from Japan, the other being Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, who also pitched in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. (We won't even talk about the O's follies in Korea.) Wada's stuff is very light for a starter in the American League East, with no above-average pitch and a repertoire that will require him to go heavy on off-speed and hope to be precise with his command.
His fastball was 87-89 with little life, but he mixed in a cutter, a splitter, and a change (with the latter two possibly the same pitch). The delivery is exaggerated as we see from most NPB starters, and there is some deception both from the funk in the delivery and the way he hides the ball, but that trick usually won't get you through the league more than once unless you have stuff, and Wada doesn't.
• Orioles top prospect Manny Machado (No. 4 on my top 100) played in that same game, a split-squad game against the Atlanta Braves, and fit in surprisingly well despite his youth and inexperience, only looking bad in an at-bat against a sidearming right-hander. He also made a play at short that many big league shortstops don't make, going to his right for a tough grounder and throwing a strike to first.
• I'd hoped to see Jason Heyward or Andrelton Simmons for Atlanta, but neither played; Tyler Pastornicky was at short and he was clearly pressing at the plate with some very defensive swings. Mike Minor started for Atlanta and touched 95 mph, pitching at above-average with a changeup that showed plus and his usual command, all of which was too much for a Baltimore lineup that bordered on the hilarious.
• Back over to the Cactus League, Neftali Feliz left his start against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday early with mild shoulder stiffness that was evident early in his outing, as his arm, usually quite loose, wasn't free and easy as it usually is. He was still 92-95 and threw a few plus changeups around 85, although the pitch flattened out into a BP fastball up around 88.
He had no feel for his curveball at 79-81, getting on the side of it, leaving it up like a bad backup slider. I've advocated letting Feliz start for some time now, but even assuming the shoulder stiffness is a non-issue, he'll need to get on top of that breaking ball more consistently for him to be able to turn over a lineup three times.
• The Cubs threw reliever Alberto Cabrera, who has one of the most electric fastballs I've seen from a prospect in a long time -- but doesn't have much else. That fastball was 95-97 for two innings with plus-plus sinking life, and he was around the plate with it a lot more than you'd expect given its movement. His changeup was dead-straight and very hittable, while the slider is short but not sharp; one of those two pitches has to come along this year for him to be a viable bullpen option, but he can probably go further than most relievers with one pitch because of its velocity and life.
• Chicago's Rule 5 pick, right-hander Lendy Castillo, also showed a good arm, 90-93 hard to his arm side with some feel for a slider in the low 80s, but he's pretty raw overall and lost his command after four or five batters, walking in a run in the process.
• First baseman Anthony Rizzo (No. 36 on my top 100) played in that game as well, taking some good at-bats, one of which ended in a line drive single to the left-center gap off a 92 mph fastball from left-hander Michael Kirkman, significant in that and inability to lefties is the major hole in Rizzo's game right now. He's got his hands out from his body more than I'd like to see, as it might give him trouble covering the inner half, but the swing works once he gets his hands started and the approach remains a strength.
• On the minor league side on Wednesday, Cubs shortstop prospect Javier Baez, No. 95 on my top 100 and their first pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, showed unbelievable power with a big home run to the opposite field at Fitch Park where he didn't even fully square the ball up, only to have it take off when it left his bat. Baez later showed his youth and rawness on a three-pitch strikeout where he had already started his two-strike swing before the pitcher had released the ball.
• The same game featured Cuban outfielder Yasiel Balaguert, who the Cubs signed in December for about $350,000. He's got a young face but a somewhat mature body without much room left to fill out (except in the wrong way). The swing is pretty solid, with good weight transfer and some hip rotation to create loft; his back side goes a little soft and I didn't see him get the head of the bat down at all, as he seemed to want the ball up so he could drive it. He has bat speed and strength, but is a fringy to average runner who has to stay in right field. He's not an elite prospect but one worth watching because of the potential to hit.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:49
PM ET
Some notes from spring training games I hit earlier this week.
• Tsuyoshi Wada was the lower-profile of the two major Baltimore Orioles signings from Japan, the other being Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, who also pitched in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. (We won't even talk about the O's follies in Korea.) Wada's stuff is very light for a starter in the American League East, with no above-average pitch and a repertoire that will require him to go heavy on off-speed and hope to be precise with his command.
His fastball was 87-89 with little life, but he mixed in a cutter, a splitter, and a change (with the latter two possibly the same pitch). The delivery is exaggerated as we see from most NPB starters, and there is some deception both from the funk in the delivery and the way he hides the ball, but that trick usually won't get you through the league more than once unless you have stuff, and Wada doesn't.
• Orioles top prospect Manny Machado (No. 4 on my top 100) played in that same game, a split-squad game against the Atlanta Braves, and fit in surprisingly well despite his youth and inexperience, only looking bad in an at-bat against a sidearming right-hander. He also made a play at short that many big league shortstops don't make, going to his right for a tough grounder and throwing a strike to first.
• I'd hoped to see Jason Heyward or Andrelton Simmons for Atlanta, but neither played; Tyler Pastornicky was at short and he was clearly pressing at the plate with some very defensive swings. Mike Minor started for Atlanta and touched 95 mph, pitching at above-average with a changeup that showed plus and his usual command, all of which was too much for a Baltimore lineup that bordered on the hilarious.
• Back over to the Cactus League, Neftali Feliz left his start against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday early with mild shoulder stiffness that was evident early in his outing, as his arm, usually quite loose, wasn't free and easy as it usually is. He was still 92-95 and threw a few plus changeups around 85, although the pitch flattened out into a BP fastball up around 88.
He had no feel for his curveball at 79-81, getting on the side of it, leaving it up like a bad backup slider. I've advocated letting Feliz start for some time now, but even assuming the shoulder stiffness is a non-issue, he'll need to get on top of that breaking ball more consistently for him to be able to turn over a lineup three times.
• The Cubs threw reliever Alberto Cabrera, who has one of the most electric fastballs I've seen from a prospect in a long time -- but doesn't have much else. That fastball was 95-97 for two innings with plus-plus sinking life, and he was around the plate with it a lot more than you'd expect given its movement. His changeup was dead-straight and very hittable, while the slider is short but not sharp; one of those two pitches has to come along this year for him to be a viable bullpen option, but he can probably go further than most relievers with one pitch because of its velocity and life.
• Chicago's Rule 5 pick, right-hander Lendy Castillo, also showed a good arm, 90-93 hard to his arm side with some feel for a slider in the low 80s, but he's pretty raw overall and lost his command after four or five batters, walking in a run in the process.
• First baseman Anthony Rizzo (No. 36 on my top 100) played in that game as well, taking some good at-bats, one of which ended in a line drive single to the left-center gap off a 92 mph fastball from left-hander Michael Kirkman, significant in that and inability to lefties is the major hole in Rizzo's game right now. He's got his hands out from his body more than I'd like to see, as it might give him trouble covering the inner half, but the swing works once he gets his hands started and the approach remains a strength.
• On the minor league side on Wednesday, Cubs shortstop prospect Javier Baez, No. 95 on my top 100 and their first pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, showed unbelievable power with a big home run to the opposite field at Fitch Park where he didn't even fully square the ball up, only to have it take off when it left his bat. Baez later showed his youth and rawness on a three-pitch strikeout where he had already started his two-strike swing before the pitcher had released the ball.
• The same game featured Cuban outfielder Yasiel Balaguert, who the Cubs signed in December for about $350,000. He's got a young face but a somewhat mature body without much room left to fill out (except in the wrong way). The swing is pretty solid, with good weight transfer and some hip rotation to create loft; his back side goes a little soft and I didn't see him get the head of the bat down at all, as he seemed to want the ball up so he could drive it. He has bat speed and strength, but is a fringy to average runner who has to stay in right field. He's not an elite prospect but one worth watching because of the potential to hit.
Steal sleepers for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Steals sleepers for 2012
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:16
PM ET
The player who led the champion http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/st-louis-cardinals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/stl/st-louis-cardinals')">St. Louis Cardinals in stolen bases a year ago is going to do so again in 2012, making him an interesting sleeper for that fantasy category.
Do you know whom I'm talking about? Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6437" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ryan Theriot, who played 132 games and stole a sad four bases in 10 attempts. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4243/rafael-furcal">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4243/rafael-furcal')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4243" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Furcal, who is a shell of his former self and barely runs anymore. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4946" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nick Punto. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5940/matt-holliday">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5940/matt-holliday')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5940" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Holliday; he attempted three steals all year. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29691" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jon Jay, who was caught seven of 13 times. And not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Albert Pujols.
This will be the fourth big league season for utility infielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30027/tyler-greene">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30027/tyler-greene')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30027" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Greene, and it will be his best. Sure, that's not saying much since the guy has a .218 career batting average in parts of three seasons and I'm not saying Greene is going to become the next http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2668" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Kent or anything, but the guy has some pop and certainly can run. Last season, Greene stole a team-high 11 bases despite getting barely 100 at-bats (13 Cardinals with more ABs). In fact, Greene has yet to be caught stealing in 16 attempts in the majors, and it's not a fluke.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyTyler Greene was a perfect 11-for-11 in steal attempts for the Cardinals in 2011.
What he has yet to earn is an opportunity to play more, but it's coming. Well past prospect status at age 28, Greene has big league stats that look nothing like what he has accomplished in the minors. Perhaps he'll never hit enough to keep a regular job, but I don't assume that based on just three seasons of fill-in work. In 2011, over a mere 66 games for Triple-A Memphis, the righty-hitting Greene swatted 14 home runs and stole 19 bases in 21 attempts. His OPS was 1.001. He totaled 31 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 2008 and '09.
Getting to repeat seasons as a Memphis Redbird helps and he doesn't draw many walks, so batting average could be a problem. But I wouldn't be shocked if Greene seizes the chance, reaches double digits in home runs and steals 20 bases this year for the Cardinals. You know who seems to agree with me? Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.
"One of the things myself, Mike [Matheny] and the major league staff thought was intriguing was giving Tyler Greene an opportunity to take this position," Mozeliak told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "His athleticism and what he brings to the table as far as speed and power … it's a unique skill set. [That] set is something that traditionally we haven't had in our lineup."
While spring numbers aren't to be trusted, it is telling that Greene leads the team in at-bats. The Cardinals seem to want him playing so they can get a good look at him. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6307/skip-schumaker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/6307/skip-schumaker')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6307" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Skip Schumaker is hurt, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30475/daniel-descalso">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30475/daniel-descalso')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30475" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Daniel Descalso is pretty uninspiring. Greene has five extra-base hits, one of them a home run, and four stolen bases in five attempts. He might even project as a top-of-the-lineup option thanks to his speed. I wanted Greene in my LABR NL auction a few weeks ago, but when the bidding hit $5 -- that's a lot in an NL-only format for a player who wasn't guaranteed playing time -- I had to drop out. I now wish I had kept going.
I wouldn't draft Greene in a 10-team mixed standard league, but watch him in deeper formats or if you're desperate for stolen bases. Below is a list of 20 other players not among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts and owned in fewer than 5 percent of leagues who are capable of stealing 20-plus bases:
[h3]Outfielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireOnly one player (Michael Bourn) has stolen more bases than Rajai Davis over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28545" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rajai Davis, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays: Both http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Travis Snider and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Thames have hit well this spring, but Davis will make the team. He has averaged 42 steals (in only 121 games) over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29683/alex-presley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29683/alex-presley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29683" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Presley, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/pit/pittsburgh-pirates')">Pittsburgh Pirates: Unlike Davis, Presley likely will start. He doesn't have quite as much speed, but he did steal 22 bases in 87 Triple-A games in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29224/will-venable">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29224/will-venable')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29224" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Will Venable, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/sd/san-diego-padres')">San Diego Padres: Not really a sleeper anymore, but he has 55 steals over the past two seasons and is line for plenty of playing time.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29759" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Young Jr., http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies: Yes, he's on this list seemingly every year. He's the NL version of Davis, not really a good player but very fast and not needing a ton of at-bats to steal 20 bases. Note that he does not have second-base eligibility in most league setups.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29262/jason-bourgeois">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/29262/jason-bourgeois')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29262" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Bourgeois, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/kc/kansas-city-royals')">Kansas City Royals: Also outfield only, but I don't think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29416" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Lorenzo Cain is going to flop, so don't look for Bourgeois to play a lot.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4486" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Juan Pierre, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...hi/philadelphia-phillies')">Philadelphia Phillies: Will likely play more than he should, and that means chances to run.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5089/andres-torres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5089/andres-torres')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5089" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andres Torres, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets: Terrific bounce-back option. He's leading off, and the Mets will run plenty.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28762/carlos-gomez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28762/carlos-gomez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28762" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Gomez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers: Speaking of the Mets, remember when Gomez was going to be a star? Now he's waiting for http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28885" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nyjer Morgan to fail, which is quite possible.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28971/jordan-schafer">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/28971/jordan-schafer')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28971" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jordan Schafer, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/hou/houston-astros')">Houston Astros: Well, he's going to play. I actually like him more than most. Seems to me he has been a bit unlucky health-wise, but he can run a bit.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30267/craig-gentry">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30267/craig-gentry')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30267" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Craig Gentry, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers: He can run a lot, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Leonys Martin isn't ready, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30014/julio-borbon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30014/julio-borbon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30014" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Julio Borbon isn't anything special. Gentry was a perfect 18-for-18 in steals last year in 133 big league at-bats.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29367/jose-constanza">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29367/jose-constanza')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29367" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Constanza, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves: He's fast and a potential beneficiary when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jones">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3006/chipper-jones')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3006" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chipper Jones sits and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6513" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Martin Prado moves to third base.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4727" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Endy Chavez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles: It seems ridiculous, but it appears he'll be Buck Showalter's leadoff hitter. Perhaps we should leave it at that.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30485/collin-cowgill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30485/collin-cowgill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30485" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Collin Cowgill, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics: Monster numbers at Triple-A Reno last season, though you can disregard his .354 batting average. The speed is legit, however, and he has a brighter future than http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28661/gregor-blanco">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28661/gregor-blanco')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28661" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gregor Blanco, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants: He's leading everyone with nine stolen bases this spring and is coming off an MVP season in the Venezuelan winter league. It likely will result in a roster spot, and if/when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6488" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Angel Pagan gets hurt …
[h3]Infielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesEduardo Nunez finished third on the Yankees with 22 steals in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30290/eduardo-nunez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30290/eduardo-nunez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30290" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eduardo Nunez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees: The heir apparent to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3246" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Jeter stole 22 bases in limited work last season. Don't be surprised to see more DH work for Jeter and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3115/alex-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3115" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Rodriguez.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28575/alexi-casilla">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28575/alexi-casilla')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28575" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alexi Casilla, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins: Has the second-base job and the ability to swipe a base per week. He might even hit second in the lineup.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Pastornicky, Braves: He'll likely beat out raw Andrelton Simmons for the shortstop job and steal 20 bases. Won't help you much elsewhere, though.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29670/freddy-galvis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29670/freddy-galvis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29670" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Freddy Galvis, Phillies: The backup to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5383" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase Utley and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4258" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jimmy Rollins stole 23 bases in the minors last season, and unfortunately, he's likely to play a lot. I guess it's good for Freddy.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d'arnaud')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30676" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase d'Arnaud, Pirates: Stole 12 bases in 48 games for the big club, and let's just say http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5798" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clint Barmes isn't the most durable fellow.
Billy Hamilton, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/cin/cincinnati-reds')">Cincinnati Reds: This is the guy who stole 103 bases in the minors last year. He's not ready offensively or defensively for the bigs, but if http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30466" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Cozart isn't either, Hamilton could be on the fast track.
Finally, here's a reminder that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, while starting their respective seasons in the minors, do run. Trout should run a lot. Harper is fast enough to steal 20 bases as well if given enough playing time.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:16
PM ET
The player who led the champion http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/st-louis-cardinals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/stl/st-louis-cardinals')">St. Louis Cardinals in stolen bases a year ago is going to do so again in 2012, making him an interesting sleeper for that fantasy category.
Do you know whom I'm talking about? Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6437" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ryan Theriot, who played 132 games and stole a sad four bases in 10 attempts. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4243/rafael-furcal">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4243/rafael-furcal')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4243" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Furcal, who is a shell of his former self and barely runs anymore. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4946" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nick Punto. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5940/matt-holliday">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5940/matt-holliday')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5940" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Holliday; he attempted three steals all year. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29691" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jon Jay, who was caught seven of 13 times. And not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Albert Pujols.
This will be the fourth big league season for utility infielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30027/tyler-greene">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30027/tyler-greene')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30027" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Greene, and it will be his best. Sure, that's not saying much since the guy has a .218 career batting average in parts of three seasons and I'm not saying Greene is going to become the next http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2668" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Kent or anything, but the guy has some pop and certainly can run. Last season, Greene stole a team-high 11 bases despite getting barely 100 at-bats (13 Cardinals with more ABs). In fact, Greene has yet to be caught stealing in 16 attempts in the majors, and it's not a fluke.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyTyler Greene was a perfect 11-for-11 in steal attempts for the Cardinals in 2011.What he has yet to earn is an opportunity to play more, but it's coming. Well past prospect status at age 28, Greene has big league stats that look nothing like what he has accomplished in the minors. Perhaps he'll never hit enough to keep a regular job, but I don't assume that based on just three seasons of fill-in work. In 2011, over a mere 66 games for Triple-A Memphis, the righty-hitting Greene swatted 14 home runs and stole 19 bases in 21 attempts. His OPS was 1.001. He totaled 31 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 2008 and '09.
Getting to repeat seasons as a Memphis Redbird helps and he doesn't draw many walks, so batting average could be a problem. But I wouldn't be shocked if Greene seizes the chance, reaches double digits in home runs and steals 20 bases this year for the Cardinals. You know who seems to agree with me? Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.
"One of the things myself, Mike [Matheny] and the major league staff thought was intriguing was giving Tyler Greene an opportunity to take this position," Mozeliak told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "His athleticism and what he brings to the table as far as speed and power … it's a unique skill set. [That] set is something that traditionally we haven't had in our lineup."
While spring numbers aren't to be trusted, it is telling that Greene leads the team in at-bats. The Cardinals seem to want him playing so they can get a good look at him. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6307/skip-schumaker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/6307/skip-schumaker')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6307" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Skip Schumaker is hurt, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30475/daniel-descalso">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30475/daniel-descalso')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30475" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Daniel Descalso is pretty uninspiring. Greene has five extra-base hits, one of them a home run, and four stolen bases in five attempts. He might even project as a top-of-the-lineup option thanks to his speed. I wanted Greene in my LABR NL auction a few weeks ago, but when the bidding hit $5 -- that's a lot in an NL-only format for a player who wasn't guaranteed playing time -- I had to drop out. I now wish I had kept going.
I wouldn't draft Greene in a 10-team mixed standard league, but watch him in deeper formats or if you're desperate for stolen bases. Below is a list of 20 other players not among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts and owned in fewer than 5 percent of leagues who are capable of stealing 20-plus bases:
[h3]Outfielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireOnly one player (Michael Bourn) has stolen more bases than Rajai Davis over the past three seasons.http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28545" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rajai Davis, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays: Both http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Travis Snider and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Thames have hit well this spring, but Davis will make the team. He has averaged 42 steals (in only 121 games) over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29683/alex-presley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29683/alex-presley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29683" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Presley, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/pit/pittsburgh-pirates')">Pittsburgh Pirates: Unlike Davis, Presley likely will start. He doesn't have quite as much speed, but he did steal 22 bases in 87 Triple-A games in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29224/will-venable">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29224/will-venable')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29224" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Will Venable, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/sd/san-diego-padres')">San Diego Padres: Not really a sleeper anymore, but he has 55 steals over the past two seasons and is line for plenty of playing time.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29759" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Young Jr., http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies: Yes, he's on this list seemingly every year. He's the NL version of Davis, not really a good player but very fast and not needing a ton of at-bats to steal 20 bases. Note that he does not have second-base eligibility in most league setups.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29262/jason-bourgeois">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/29262/jason-bourgeois')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29262" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Bourgeois, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/kc/kansas-city-royals')">Kansas City Royals: Also outfield only, but I don't think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29416" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Lorenzo Cain is going to flop, so don't look for Bourgeois to play a lot.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4486" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Juan Pierre, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...hi/philadelphia-phillies')">Philadelphia Phillies: Will likely play more than he should, and that means chances to run.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5089/andres-torres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5089/andres-torres')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5089" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andres Torres, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets: Terrific bounce-back option. He's leading off, and the Mets will run plenty.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28762/carlos-gomez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28762/carlos-gomez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28762" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Gomez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers: Speaking of the Mets, remember when Gomez was going to be a star? Now he's waiting for http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28885" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nyjer Morgan to fail, which is quite possible.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28971/jordan-schafer">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/28971/jordan-schafer')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28971" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jordan Schafer, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/hou/houston-astros')">Houston Astros: Well, he's going to play. I actually like him more than most. Seems to me he has been a bit unlucky health-wise, but he can run a bit.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30267/craig-gentry">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30267/craig-gentry')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30267" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Craig Gentry, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers: He can run a lot, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Leonys Martin isn't ready, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30014/julio-borbon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30014/julio-borbon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30014" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Julio Borbon isn't anything special. Gentry was a perfect 18-for-18 in steals last year in 133 big league at-bats.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29367/jose-constanza">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29367/jose-constanza')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29367" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Constanza, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves: He's fast and a potential beneficiary when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jones">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3006/chipper-jones')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3006" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chipper Jones sits and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6513" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Martin Prado moves to third base.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4727" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Endy Chavez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles: It seems ridiculous, but it appears he'll be Buck Showalter's leadoff hitter. Perhaps we should leave it at that.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30485/collin-cowgill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30485/collin-cowgill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30485" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Collin Cowgill, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics: Monster numbers at Triple-A Reno last season, though you can disregard his .354 batting average. The speed is legit, however, and he has a brighter future than http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28661/gregor-blanco">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28661/gregor-blanco')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28661" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gregor Blanco, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants: He's leading everyone with nine stolen bases this spring and is coming off an MVP season in the Venezuelan winter league. It likely will result in a roster spot, and if/when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6488" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Angel Pagan gets hurt …
[h3]Infielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesEduardo Nunez finished third on the Yankees with 22 steals in 2011.http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30290/eduardo-nunez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30290/eduardo-nunez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30290" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eduardo Nunez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees: The heir apparent to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3246" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Jeter stole 22 bases in limited work last season. Don't be surprised to see more DH work for Jeter and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3115/alex-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3115" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Rodriguez.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28575/alexi-casilla">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28575/alexi-casilla')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28575" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alexi Casilla, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins: Has the second-base job and the ability to swipe a base per week. He might even hit second in the lineup.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Pastornicky, Braves: He'll likely beat out raw Andrelton Simmons for the shortstop job and steal 20 bases. Won't help you much elsewhere, though.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29670/freddy-galvis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29670/freddy-galvis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29670" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Freddy Galvis, Phillies: The backup to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5383" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase Utley and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4258" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jimmy Rollins stole 23 bases in the minors last season, and unfortunately, he's likely to play a lot. I guess it's good for Freddy.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d'arnaud')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30676" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase d'Arnaud, Pirates: Stole 12 bases in 48 games for the big club, and let's just say http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5798" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clint Barmes isn't the most durable fellow.
Billy Hamilton, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/cin/cincinnati-reds')">Cincinnati Reds: This is the guy who stole 103 bases in the minors last year. He's not ready offensively or defensively for the bigs, but if http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30466" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Cozart isn't either, Hamilton could be on the fast track.
Finally, here's a reminder that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, while starting their respective seasons in the minors, do run. Trout should run a lot. Harper is fast enough to steal 20 bases as well if given enough playing time.
Casting the first ballot for Chipper.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Casting the first ballot for Chipper
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
9:31
AM ET
Patrick Smith/Getty ImagesChipper Jones will retire as one of the best third basemen in the history of baseball.
FT. MYERS, Fla. -- The topic was milestones and Chipper Jones was asked the other day if there was any number -- any statistical standard -- that he still wanted. He has 454 homers, 2,615 hits, 1,561 runs scored and 1,561 RBIs.
Jones stood up from his locker in the visitors' clubhouse at the Tigers' camp, and he began walking toward the door, carrying two bats.
Over his shoulder, he answered that yeah, he could theoretically stick around and hit the 46 homers he needs to reach 500 for his career. But his tone was dismissive, and he steered the conversation into something he is more interested in now, at age 39: Watching his kids play sports.
We know now that the day before, he had told Atlanta Braves general manager Frank Wren that he intends to retire after this season. Jones still feels he can be a productive hitter, but he is wary of the questions about his future, and the nagging injuries that have limited him to 221 games in the last two seasons aren't going away.
Assuming that Jones doesn't change his mind, his name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in December 2017, and he is an easy first-ballot selection. A no-brainer. To not vote for him, in fact, would be inexcusable.
His career résumé is spotless.
Big numbers? Check.
One of the greatest ever at his position? Check. Among third basemen, he'd be ranked somewhere with Mike Schmidt and George Brett.
A period of dominance in his career, when he's among the best players in his league? Check. He won the MVP in 1999 and was in the top 11 in the MVP voting in seven consecutive seasons.
Team success? Check. The guy lived in the playoffs at the outset of his career and clubbed 23 homers in his rookie season when the Braves won the World Series. Jones has 412 plate appearances in his career in the playoffs and Fall Classic.
PED clearance? Check. In a time of shifting and loose Hall of Fame standards, a huge block of writers won't vote for anyone suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs, and Jones -- like Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter -- has gone through his career without whispers following him.
Jones has served the sport extraordinarily well, in how he has played and how he has carried himself.
Chipper wants to work with the team after he retires, writes David O'Brien. He wanted to get this over with.
After talking with Jones the other day, I walked away convinced that some day he will be a hitting coach in the big leagues. He loves talking about hitting and problem-solving with a swing, in the same way that Tony Gwynn does.
A rival pitcher says Jones is an easy Hall of Famer. With Chipper retiring, New York Mets pitchers are catching a break, writes Benjamin Hoffman.
[h4]Chipper Jones[/h4]
Where Chipper Jones ranks all time among switch hitters (minimum 1,000 games played).
[table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Jones[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].304[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]OBP[/td][td].402[/td][td]4th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slug pct[/td][td].533[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]HR[/td][td]454[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]5th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Games played[/td][td]2,387[/td][td]10th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Total bases[/td][td]4,579[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][/table]
From ESPN Stats and Info, more on Jones:
• Selected by the Braves first overall in 1990 draft
• 1999 National League MVP
• 1995 World Series champion
• Seven-time All-Star (1996-98, 2000-01, 2008, 2011)
• Two-time Silver Slugger (1999-2000)
• Among active players, only Jones and Derek Jeter have played at least 2,300 games while playing for only one team
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jeff Moorad stepped down, and the Padres' front office is in a state of flux, again, as Tim Sullivan writes. Moorad won't have an office at Petco Park.
The number of owner/CEO/GM changes for San Diego in the past five years is closing in on double-digits.
• Kendrys Morales was in a major league game for the first time in 664 days on Thursday, and he had a couple of hits. Pretty cool. For Morales, watching others play was painful, writes Bill Plunkett. From Bill's story:
• The catching market has been completely reset by Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million deal, at the worst possible time for the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona wants to re-sign Miguel Montero and Texas wants to lock up Mike Napoli, but now the asking price for both players has climbed; both are eligible for free agency in the fall, when the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs and other teams will be looking for catching, and catching is scarce.
• Raul Ibanez stood at the railing Thursday evening and talked about how much he liked watching Adrian Gonzalez take batting practice, because everything in the first baseman's swing is steady, consistent, smooth. "He's not rushed," said Ibanez.
Right now, scouts say, Ibanez is caught between being too slow and starting too fast, and he's working through the timing in his swing. Ibanez is 39 years old, going on 40 in June, and his bat speed is not where it used to be. In order to catch up with fastballs, he needs to get his bat started quicker.
But in doing that -- in starting too quickly -- a hitter can essentially lock up his hands and his swing can actually be slower. Jason Heyward is much younger than Ibanez, and he's dealing with a similar issue: Because he's so quick to start in his swing, in a rush of movement, he sometimes loses the fluidity and consistency of movement through the swing.
Ibanez is looking for what Gonzalez has: timing. In recent days, scouts had indicated that Ibanez is slowly improving, and because the New York Yankees watched Marcus Thames and Andruw Jones struggle the last two springs, they aren't really that fazed by Ibanez's ugly spring numbers. Ibanez will be part of the team on Opening Day.
But the timing was not there for Ibanez on Thursday. He grounded out in his first two at-bats and struck out in his third at-bat, lowering his spring average to .054. He's 2-for-37.
Ibanez has not been a hit, writes Dan Martin.
• Carl Crawford feels that the way his left wrist is being taped before he swings a bat helps because of the support it provides. As he hits off a tee, the tape just makes the top-hand movement in his swing more comfortable. But Crawford runs away from projecting any timetable for a return. "That's how I got into this problem in the first place," said Crawford, who had a setback earlier in camp as he pushed himself.
Crawford's approach now is to show up each day and do what he's asked to do by the Boston staff, rather than look ahead and work toward a date in his mind when he'll be back in the lineup. The bottom line is that the Red Sox have no idea when Crawford will play again.
Crawford is looking toward Jacoby Ellsbury for inspiration, writes John Tomase.
• Bobby Valentine mentioned to reporters on Thursday that a possible return for Daisuke Matsuzaka by June 1 is "mapped out." By all accounts, Matsuzaka looks stronger and more fit.
• If you are a Chicago White Sox fan and thought your squad threw to first base a lot last year, you're right. From the Elias Sports Bureau, the most pickoff attempts in 2011:
White Sox: 897
Padres: 890
Dodgers: 889
Athletics: 856
Royals: 853
Yankees: 833
Rangers: 818
Braves: 803
Diamondbacks: 789
Marlins: 771
• Valentine was irked by how the Yankees-Red Sox game ended. He got a big headline on the Boston Globe website for that.
• Wandy Rodriguez is having a rough spring.
• The Washington Nationals are being riddled with injuries, and Michael Morse hasn't played in the field.
• Ryan Madson has apparently had a setback, as John Fay writes.
• Adam Dunn clubbed a couple of homers. This offseason, he made structural changes in his swing, lowering his hands.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Pastornicky had a really, really good day in his battle to be the Braves' shortstop.
2. Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik are fighting for a spot with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Charlie Manuel made a case for Pierre.
3. Danny Worth is battling Brandon Inge for a roster spot, as Lynn Henning writes.
4. Drew Smyly had a really good day in his fight to be the No. 5 starter for the Detroit Tigers.
5. Injuries are impacting the Cleveland left field competition.
6. Randy Wells is competing for the No. 5 spot in the Cubs' rotation.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Mariners left for Seattle with 30 players. The Oakland Athletics got their wish to play in Japan, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Jeremy Guthrie is the Rockies' Opening Day starter.
3. Erik Bedard is getting the ball on Opening Day.
4. The Dodgers cut a reliever.
5. Some newcomers arrived in the Royals' camp.
6. Freddy Garcia would have to approve a trade before June 16, but he wants to pitch, as David Waldstein writes.
Brian Cashman was on the field before the Boston-New York exhibition Thursday, and generally, he steered around questions about the rotation. But he had high praise for Phil Hughes. "If Phil Hughes is healthy, I know what type of pitcher he is," Cashman said. "He's still one of the young guns, for me, in the game."
Here's the thing: Hughes has shown he had a high ceiling, making the All-Star team in 2010. And he struggled enough last year to diminish his current trade value; no team would give the Yankees a boatload of prospects for Hughes right after the right-hander's struggles for most of 2011.
And right now, the Yankees would ask for a boatload. There isn't much quality pitching available on the open market, and there is no reason for the Yankees to rush Hughes out the door. They can set a high price and sit back and wait for some other team to say yes, and there's really no downside for them if they need to shift Hughes to the bullpen to make that happen. By midseason, the Yankees could have a bullpen of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Hughes.
In all likelihood, Hughes isn't going anywhere.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. With Reid Brignac likely out at the start of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are adjusting.
2. Ryan Howard is making progress.
3. The Padres are getting hammered by injuries, writes Bill Center.
4. Neftali Feliz's shoulder tightness is typical. It's very possible Feliz will start the year in the minors.
5. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher is confident his elbow issues are behind him, writes Eduardo Encina.
6. David Wright felt good in batting practice.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Lincecum threw against some minor leaguers, writes Henry Schulman.
2. The San Francisco Giants had a rough day at the plate.
3. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
4. Gio Gonzalez had a bad day but smiled at the end of it, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Cliff Lee threw the ball well.
6. Jaime Garcia had a strong start.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
9:31
AM ET
FT. MYERS, Fla. -- The topic was milestones and Chipper Jones was asked the other day if there was any number -- any statistical standard -- that he still wanted. He has 454 homers, 2,615 hits, 1,561 runs scored and 1,561 RBIs.
Jones stood up from his locker in the visitors' clubhouse at the Tigers' camp, and he began walking toward the door, carrying two bats.
Over his shoulder, he answered that yeah, he could theoretically stick around and hit the 46 homers he needs to reach 500 for his career. But his tone was dismissive, and he steered the conversation into something he is more interested in now, at age 39: Watching his kids play sports.
We know now that the day before, he had told Atlanta Braves general manager Frank Wren that he intends to retire after this season. Jones still feels he can be a productive hitter, but he is wary of the questions about his future, and the nagging injuries that have limited him to 221 games in the last two seasons aren't going away.
Assuming that Jones doesn't change his mind, his name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in December 2017, and he is an easy first-ballot selection. A no-brainer. To not vote for him, in fact, would be inexcusable.
His career résumé is spotless.
Big numbers? Check.
One of the greatest ever at his position? Check. Among third basemen, he'd be ranked somewhere with Mike Schmidt and George Brett.
A period of dominance in his career, when he's among the best players in his league? Check. He won the MVP in 1999 and was in the top 11 in the MVP voting in seven consecutive seasons.
Team success? Check. The guy lived in the playoffs at the outset of his career and clubbed 23 homers in his rookie season when the Braves won the World Series. Jones has 412 plate appearances in his career in the playoffs and Fall Classic.
PED clearance? Check. In a time of shifting and loose Hall of Fame standards, a huge block of writers won't vote for anyone suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs, and Jones -- like Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter -- has gone through his career without whispers following him.
Jones has served the sport extraordinarily well, in how he has played and how he has carried himself.
Chipper wants to work with the team after he retires, writes David O'Brien. He wanted to get this over with.
After talking with Jones the other day, I walked away convinced that some day he will be a hitting coach in the big leagues. He loves talking about hitting and problem-solving with a swing, in the same way that Tony Gwynn does.
A rival pitcher says Jones is an easy Hall of Famer. With Chipper retiring, New York Mets pitchers are catching a break, writes Benjamin Hoffman.
[h4]Chipper Jones[/h4]
Where Chipper Jones ranks all time among switch hitters (minimum 1,000 games played).
[table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Jones[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].304[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]OBP[/td][td].402[/td][td]4th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slug pct[/td][td].533[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]HR[/td][td]454[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]5th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Games played[/td][td]2,387[/td][td]10th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Total bases[/td][td]4,579[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][/table]
From ESPN Stats and Info, more on Jones:
• Selected by the Braves first overall in 1990 draft
• 1999 National League MVP
• 1995 World Series champion
• Seven-time All-Star (1996-98, 2000-01, 2008, 2011)
• Two-time Silver Slugger (1999-2000)
• Among active players, only Jones and Derek Jeter have played at least 2,300 games while playing for only one team
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jeff Moorad stepped down, and the Padres' front office is in a state of flux, again, as Tim Sullivan writes. Moorad won't have an office at Petco Park.
The number of owner/CEO/GM changes for San Diego in the past five years is closing in on double-digits.
• Kendrys Morales was in a major league game for the first time in 664 days on Thursday, and he had a couple of hits. Pretty cool. For Morales, watching others play was painful, writes Bill Plunkett. From Bill's story:
- Morales had played in minor league camp games three times leading up to Thursday, going from first base to home on a teammate's triple in one of those games. His ankle passed a similar test Thursday. After his first single, Morales went to third base on Bobby Abreu's double down the left-field line, arriving safely -- in more ways than one -- with a slide.
- "Everybody was waiting for me to come back and be in a major league game and I did that today," Morales said Thursday. "I'm thinking now it will be smooth sailing."
• The catching market has been completely reset by Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million deal, at the worst possible time for the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona wants to re-sign Miguel Montero and Texas wants to lock up Mike Napoli, but now the asking price for both players has climbed; both are eligible for free agency in the fall, when the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs and other teams will be looking for catching, and catching is scarce.
• Raul Ibanez stood at the railing Thursday evening and talked about how much he liked watching Adrian Gonzalez take batting practice, because everything in the first baseman's swing is steady, consistent, smooth. "He's not rushed," said Ibanez.
Right now, scouts say, Ibanez is caught between being too slow and starting too fast, and he's working through the timing in his swing. Ibanez is 39 years old, going on 40 in June, and his bat speed is not where it used to be. In order to catch up with fastballs, he needs to get his bat started quicker.
But in doing that -- in starting too quickly -- a hitter can essentially lock up his hands and his swing can actually be slower. Jason Heyward is much younger than Ibanez, and he's dealing with a similar issue: Because he's so quick to start in his swing, in a rush of movement, he sometimes loses the fluidity and consistency of movement through the swing.
Ibanez is looking for what Gonzalez has: timing. In recent days, scouts had indicated that Ibanez is slowly improving, and because the New York Yankees watched Marcus Thames and Andruw Jones struggle the last two springs, they aren't really that fazed by Ibanez's ugly spring numbers. Ibanez will be part of the team on Opening Day.
But the timing was not there for Ibanez on Thursday. He grounded out in his first two at-bats and struck out in his third at-bat, lowering his spring average to .054. He's 2-for-37.
Ibanez has not been a hit, writes Dan Martin.
• Carl Crawford feels that the way his left wrist is being taped before he swings a bat helps because of the support it provides. As he hits off a tee, the tape just makes the top-hand movement in his swing more comfortable. But Crawford runs away from projecting any timetable for a return. "That's how I got into this problem in the first place," said Crawford, who had a setback earlier in camp as he pushed himself.
Crawford's approach now is to show up each day and do what he's asked to do by the Boston staff, rather than look ahead and work toward a date in his mind when he'll be back in the lineup. The bottom line is that the Red Sox have no idea when Crawford will play again.
Crawford is looking toward Jacoby Ellsbury for inspiration, writes John Tomase.
• Bobby Valentine mentioned to reporters on Thursday that a possible return for Daisuke Matsuzaka by June 1 is "mapped out." By all accounts, Matsuzaka looks stronger and more fit.
• If you are a Chicago White Sox fan and thought your squad threw to first base a lot last year, you're right. From the Elias Sports Bureau, the most pickoff attempts in 2011:
White Sox: 897
Padres: 890
Dodgers: 889
Athletics: 856
Royals: 853
Yankees: 833
Rangers: 818
Braves: 803
Diamondbacks: 789
Marlins: 771
• Valentine was irked by how the Yankees-Red Sox game ended. He got a big headline on the Boston Globe website for that.
• Wandy Rodriguez is having a rough spring.
• The Washington Nationals are being riddled with injuries, and Michael Morse hasn't played in the field.
• Ryan Madson has apparently had a setback, as John Fay writes.
• Adam Dunn clubbed a couple of homers. This offseason, he made structural changes in his swing, lowering his hands.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Pastornicky had a really, really good day in his battle to be the Braves' shortstop.
2. Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik are fighting for a spot with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Charlie Manuel made a case for Pierre.
3. Danny Worth is battling Brandon Inge for a roster spot, as Lynn Henning writes.
4. Drew Smyly had a really good day in his fight to be the No. 5 starter for the Detroit Tigers.
5. Injuries are impacting the Cleveland left field competition.
6. Randy Wells is competing for the No. 5 spot in the Cubs' rotation.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Mariners left for Seattle with 30 players. The Oakland Athletics got their wish to play in Japan, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Jeremy Guthrie is the Rockies' Opening Day starter.
3. Erik Bedard is getting the ball on Opening Day.
4. The Dodgers cut a reliever.
5. Some newcomers arrived in the Royals' camp.
6. Freddy Garcia would have to approve a trade before June 16, but he wants to pitch, as David Waldstein writes.
Brian Cashman was on the field before the Boston-New York exhibition Thursday, and generally, he steered around questions about the rotation. But he had high praise for Phil Hughes. "If Phil Hughes is healthy, I know what type of pitcher he is," Cashman said. "He's still one of the young guns, for me, in the game."
Here's the thing: Hughes has shown he had a high ceiling, making the All-Star team in 2010. And he struggled enough last year to diminish his current trade value; no team would give the Yankees a boatload of prospects for Hughes right after the right-hander's struggles for most of 2011.
And right now, the Yankees would ask for a boatload. There isn't much quality pitching available on the open market, and there is no reason for the Yankees to rush Hughes out the door. They can set a high price and sit back and wait for some other team to say yes, and there's really no downside for them if they need to shift Hughes to the bullpen to make that happen. By midseason, the Yankees could have a bullpen of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Hughes.
In all likelihood, Hughes isn't going anywhere.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. With Reid Brignac likely out at the start of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are adjusting.
2. Ryan Howard is making progress.
3. The Padres are getting hammered by injuries, writes Bill Center.
4. Neftali Feliz's shoulder tightness is typical. It's very possible Feliz will start the year in the minors.
5. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher is confident his elbow issues are behind him, writes Eduardo Encina.
6. David Wright felt good in batting practice.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Lincecum threw against some minor leaguers, writes Henry Schulman.
2. The San Francisco Giants had a rough day at the plate.
3. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
4. Gio Gonzalez had a bad day but smiled at the end of it, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Cliff Lee threw the ball well.
6. Jaime Garcia had a strong start.
Greg Holland: KC's closer of the future.
Spoiler [+]
On the heels of news that Joakim Soria will need Tommy John surgery, the Royals’ bullpen is a state of flux. Luckily, unlike most bullpens around the majors, the Royals have excellent options to fill the role. Jonathan Broxton may be the frontrunner for the job, given his history as a stud with the Dodgers. But the closer of the future is already in the Royals’ bullpen, and even if he doesn’t become the closer of the present, Greg Holland is already making hitters take notice.
Holland combines a blazing fastball (95 MPH average velocity) with that vicious slider with excellent results. In 78.2 major league innings, Holland has struck out 97 batters against just 27 walks. Last season, it was 74 strikeouts to 19 walks. He induced more ground balls than fly balls. Only Jonathan Papelbon earned more swings and misses than Holland’s 16.6% ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA — all under 2.70, all except xFIP under 2.30. Hell, he even picked up five wins.
It would be understandable if the Royals went to Jonathan Broxton over Holland in the closer’s role to start the season. Ostensibly, the Royals see Broxton as a reclamation project they can use to build trade value over the course of the season, and there’s not a better place for a reliever to do that than as the closer. And let’s not forget, when Broxton’s on, he’s every bit as good as what Holland showed last year. From 2007-2009 Broxton recorded 301 strikeouts to just 81 walks in 227 innings, posting an ERA- of 68 as he earned the closership in Los Angeles.
Still, Broxton is on a one-year deal, and his time in Kansas City is nothing more than a transition phase — to a playoff team if he succeeds or to retirement (forced or otherwise) if injury problems and ineffectiveness continue to bite. Greg Holland’s time in the Kansas City bullpen spotlight is coming, and current circumstances suggest it will be sooner rather than later.
Holland combines a blazing fastball (95 MPH average velocity) with that vicious slider with excellent results. In 78.2 major league innings, Holland has struck out 97 batters against just 27 walks. Last season, it was 74 strikeouts to 19 walks. He induced more ground balls than fly balls. Only Jonathan Papelbon earned more swings and misses than Holland’s 16.6% ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA — all under 2.70, all except xFIP under 2.30. Hell, he even picked up five wins.
It would be understandable if the Royals went to Jonathan Broxton over Holland in the closer’s role to start the season. Ostensibly, the Royals see Broxton as a reclamation project they can use to build trade value over the course of the season, and there’s not a better place for a reliever to do that than as the closer. And let’s not forget, when Broxton’s on, he’s every bit as good as what Holland showed last year. From 2007-2009 Broxton recorded 301 strikeouts to just 81 walks in 227 innings, posting an ERA- of 68 as he earned the closership in Los Angeles.
Still, Broxton is on a one-year deal, and his time in Kansas City is nothing more than a transition phase — to a playoff team if he succeeds or to retirement (forced or otherwise) if injury problems and ineffectiveness continue to bite. Greg Holland’s time in the Kansas City bullpen spotlight is coming, and current circumstances suggest it will be sooner rather than later.
Matt Bush arrested for DUI.
Spoiler [+]
Matt Bush screwed up. Again. According to Roger Mooney, the former first overall draft pick was arrested Thursday night for DUI. As if that weren’t bad enough, Bush is also responsible for a hit and run in which he seriously injured a 72-year-old motorist and fled the scene before he was picked up by law enforcement.
Bush had already been trying to rehabilitate his image following a night club brawl in 2004 and an alleged assault in 2009. After washing out with the San Diego Padres, Bush, now 26-years-old, was attempting to comeback as a reliever with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Considering the severity of this incident, it doesn’t seem appropriate to bring up Bush’s baseball history. Unfortunately, it’s part of the reason he was still in the game. Bush did not produce as a hitter in the minors and this comeback was a last chance to prove himself in the majors. Due to his live right arm, the Rays decided to take a chance on Bush despite his past legal issues. While an organization is always going to be tempted by talent, character is also a factor in which players deserve contracts. That’s not to say the Rays completely ignored Bush’s past, but they also knew the risks involved in bringing a player with his history into the organization.
In the end, though, talent often wins out, and people you wouldn’t want marrying into your family continue to get chances as long as teams think they can help them win baseball games. Milton Bradley was known for his off the field issues, but played on eight different teams due to his baseball skills. Elijah Dukes was a more serious case, but still received multiple chances based on his potential. Delmon Young once threw a bat at an umpire, but the Rays stuck by him due to his prospect status – at least, until they realized he was not very good and traded him to Minnesota. More recently, Alex White was arrested for an “extreme DUI
Bush had already been trying to rehabilitate his image following a night club brawl in 2004 and an alleged assault in 2009. After washing out with the San Diego Padres, Bush, now 26-years-old, was attempting to comeback as a reliever with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Considering the severity of this incident, it doesn’t seem appropriate to bring up Bush’s baseball history. Unfortunately, it’s part of the reason he was still in the game. Bush did not produce as a hitter in the minors and this comeback was a last chance to prove himself in the majors. Due to his live right arm, the Rays decided to take a chance on Bush despite his past legal issues. While an organization is always going to be tempted by talent, character is also a factor in which players deserve contracts. That’s not to say the Rays completely ignored Bush’s past, but they also knew the risks involved in bringing a player with his history into the organization.
In the end, though, talent often wins out, and people you wouldn’t want marrying into your family continue to get chances as long as teams think they can help them win baseball games. Milton Bradley was known for his off the field issues, but played on eight different teams due to his baseball skills. Elijah Dukes was a more serious case, but still received multiple chances based on his potential. Delmon Young once threw a bat at an umpire, but the Rays stuck by him due to his prospect status – at least, until they realized he was not very good and traded him to Minnesota. More recently, Alex White was arrested for an “extreme DUI
Will Strasburg be the same?
Fantasy breakout bats.
Machado holds his own with big leaguers.
Steal sleepers for 2012.
Casting the first ballot for Chipper.
Greg Holland: KC's closer of the future.
Matt Bush arrested for DUI.
Spoiler [+]
[h1]Will Strasburg be the same?[/h1][h3]A look at recent Tommy John surgery survivors can help us find the answer[/h3]
Updated: March 23, 2012, 10:16 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | FanGraphs
AP Photo/Jacquelyn MartinStephen Strasburg's 1.50 ERA in 24 innings late last season was certainly encouraging.
Before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John surgery, Stephen Strasburg was pitching at a level few men have been able to match, striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings in 12 big league starts in 2010. Strasburg is nearly 19 months removed from surgery, and the Washington Nationals are hopeful that their ace will be able to match his previous dominance and establish himself as one of the National League's best starting pitchers.
Is that a realistic goal for a pitcher in his first season after returning from elbow surgery? A look at recent history will help us find the answer.
To find out what we can expect from Strasburg, I looked at six other starting pitchers who are Tommy John survivors and measured their performance in their first two years after surgery against their performance in the season preceding the surgery.
While we would generally like to have a larger sample to draw from, we also have to be cognizant of the fact that medical technology has advanced in this area, and going too far back into history could introduce cases where the rehabilitation procedures were not very similar to what Strasburg went through. We also want to pick younger pitchers so as to not introduce age-related decline into the results. For these reasons, we've limited ourselves to just starting pitchers who had Tommy John surgery in the past 10 years and were under the age of 30 at the time.
For each pitcher, we'll list his innings-pitched total as well as his FIP-, which is an index metric that scales a pitcher's FIP to league average in that season: 100 is league average, and just like ERA, higher is worse.
[h3]Adam Eaton, 2002[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 116 IP, 111 FIP-
First season back (2003): 183 IP, 101 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 199 IP, 106 FIP-
Like Strasburg, Eaton was at an early point in his career when he needed elbow surgery. He returned to the mound in his age-25 season and performed better than he had prior to the surgery; in fact, his first year back was the best season of his career. He regressed slightly in Year 2, and then lingering arm problems derailed his 2006 season. His career went downhill quickly after that.
[h3]Chris Carpenter, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 216 IP, 101 FIP-
First season back (2004): 182 IP, 89 FIP-
Second season back (2005): 242 IP, 69 FIP-
Carpenter is the poster child for how successful one can be after having Tommy John surgery. Injuries cost him most of 2002 and all of 2003, but when he returned to the mound at age 29, he was back to performing at a level equal to his career best up to that point, and better than he had performed in his last healthy season prior to the injury. He would go on to have the best year of his career in his second season back and remain a dominant -- if not always healthy -- starter for most of the last decade.
[h3]A.J. Burnett, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2002): 204 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2004): 120 IP, 75 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 209 IP, 75 FIP-
After a breakout season as a 25-year-old, Burnett went under the knife and missed nearly all of the 2003 season. He returned in June 2004 and looked like he hadn't missed a beat, performing just as well in his first season back as he had before surgery. He sustained that excellence in Year 2 and showed that he could once again handle a full season's workload. Despite some subsequent inconsistency, Burnett has remained one of the more durable starters in baseball ever since.
[h3]Francisco Liriano, 2006[/h3]
Last healthy season (2006): 121 IP, 58 FIP-
First season back (200: 76 IP, 91 FIP-
Second season back (2009): 136 IP, 112 FIP-
Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006, putting up the kind of season that matched what Strasburg did as a rookie, but persisting arm problems cut his season short and forced him to miss the entire 2007 campaign. When he returned in 2008, his velocity was down significantly, and the Twins had him spend the first few months of the season in the minors. When they called him up, he showed that he could still get hitters out, but he was nothing close to the dominant ace he'd been before. He regressed even further back in his second season after surgery, and while he was excellent in 2010, he took a big step back last season.
[h3]Chris Capuano, 2008[/h3]
Last healthy season (2007): 150 IP, 100 FIP-
First season back (2010): 66 IP, 107 FIP-
Second season back (2011): 186 IP, 108 FIP-
This was actually a second go-round for Capuano, who also had an elbow ligament replaced when he was in the minor leagues in 2002. While the average time frame for recovery from Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months, Capuano ended up missing all of the 2008 and '09 seasons due to his injury, and he had to pitch his way back to the big leagues in 2010. Once he landed a job back in a major league rotation, he was only slightly worse than he had been in 2007. Last year, he was able to handle a full starter's workload and was rewarded with a two-year contract from the Dodgers this winter.
[h3]Ben Sheets, 2009[/h3]
Last healthy season (200: 198 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2010): 119 IP, 117 FIP-
Second season back: Out of baseball
And now, for the cautionary tale. Sheets was one of the premier pitchers in baseball early in his career, and even while he battled health problems from 2006 to 2008, he remained excellent when he was on the mound. His elbow finally gave out after the 2008 season, and he spent 2009 in rehab after surgery. The success of prior Tommy John recoveries gave the A's enough confidence to sign him to a $10 million contract for 2010, but he simply wasn't the same pitcher he was before the surgery, and his elbow gave out again in July of that year. Barring an unforeseen comeback, Sheets' career appears to be over.
The results for these six pitchers should be mostly encouraging for Strasburg. While Sheets and Liriano weren't able to match their prior form, both had extensive injury issues even before they underwent Tommy John surgery. The successful returns of Carpenter, Burnett, Capuano and Eaton all suggest that the time spent on the sidelines doesn't necessarily result in a lesser pitcher, even in the first year back on the mound. Strasburg is unlikely to repeat his 2010 performance for the simple reason that no pitcher could be expected to be that good for any sustained period of time, but recent performances by Tommy John survivors suggest that Strasburg could be expected to be among the best pitchers in the game this year.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Updated: March 23, 2012, 10:16 AM ET
By Dave Cameron | FanGraphs
Before suffering a torn ulnar collateral ligament that required Tommy John surgery, Stephen Strasburg was pitching at a level few men have been able to match, striking out 12.2 batters per nine innings in 12 big league starts in 2010. Strasburg is nearly 19 months removed from surgery, and the Washington Nationals are hopeful that their ace will be able to match his previous dominance and establish himself as one of the National League's best starting pitchers.
Is that a realistic goal for a pitcher in his first season after returning from elbow surgery? A look at recent history will help us find the answer.
To find out what we can expect from Strasburg, I looked at six other starting pitchers who are Tommy John survivors and measured their performance in their first two years after surgery against their performance in the season preceding the surgery.
While we would generally like to have a larger sample to draw from, we also have to be cognizant of the fact that medical technology has advanced in this area, and going too far back into history could introduce cases where the rehabilitation procedures were not very similar to what Strasburg went through. We also want to pick younger pitchers so as to not introduce age-related decline into the results. For these reasons, we've limited ourselves to just starting pitchers who had Tommy John surgery in the past 10 years and were under the age of 30 at the time.
For each pitcher, we'll list his innings-pitched total as well as his FIP-, which is an index metric that scales a pitcher's FIP to league average in that season: 100 is league average, and just like ERA, higher is worse.
[h3]Adam Eaton, 2002[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 116 IP, 111 FIP-
First season back (2003): 183 IP, 101 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 199 IP, 106 FIP-
Like Strasburg, Eaton was at an early point in his career when he needed elbow surgery. He returned to the mound in his age-25 season and performed better than he had prior to the surgery; in fact, his first year back was the best season of his career. He regressed slightly in Year 2, and then lingering arm problems derailed his 2006 season. His career went downhill quickly after that.
[h3]Chris Carpenter, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2001): 216 IP, 101 FIP-
First season back (2004): 182 IP, 89 FIP-
Second season back (2005): 242 IP, 69 FIP-
Carpenter is the poster child for how successful one can be after having Tommy John surgery. Injuries cost him most of 2002 and all of 2003, but when he returned to the mound at age 29, he was back to performing at a level equal to his career best up to that point, and better than he had performed in his last healthy season prior to the injury. He would go on to have the best year of his career in his second season back and remain a dominant -- if not always healthy -- starter for most of the last decade.
[h3]A.J. Burnett, 2003[/h3]
Last healthy season (2002): 204 IP, 79 FIP-
First season back (2004): 120 IP, 75 FIP-
Second season back (2004): 209 IP, 75 FIP-
After a breakout season as a 25-year-old, Burnett went under the knife and missed nearly all of the 2003 season. He returned in June 2004 and looked like he hadn't missed a beat, performing just as well in his first season back as he had before surgery. He sustained that excellence in Year 2 and showed that he could once again handle a full season's workload. Despite some subsequent inconsistency, Burnett has remained one of the more durable starters in baseball ever since.
[h3]Francisco Liriano, 2006[/h3]
Last healthy season (2006): 121 IP, 58 FIP-
First season back (200
: 76 IP, 91 FIP-Second season back (2009): 136 IP, 112 FIP-
Liriano burst onto the scene in 2006, putting up the kind of season that matched what Strasburg did as a rookie, but persisting arm problems cut his season short and forced him to miss the entire 2007 campaign. When he returned in 2008, his velocity was down significantly, and the Twins had him spend the first few months of the season in the minors. When they called him up, he showed that he could still get hitters out, but he was nothing close to the dominant ace he'd been before. He regressed even further back in his second season after surgery, and while he was excellent in 2010, he took a big step back last season.
[h3]Chris Capuano, 2008[/h3]
Last healthy season (2007): 150 IP, 100 FIP-
First season back (2010): 66 IP, 107 FIP-
Second season back (2011): 186 IP, 108 FIP-
This was actually a second go-round for Capuano, who also had an elbow ligament replaced when he was in the minor leagues in 2002. While the average time frame for recovery from Tommy John surgery is 12-18 months, Capuano ended up missing all of the 2008 and '09 seasons due to his injury, and he had to pitch his way back to the big leagues in 2010. Once he landed a job back in a major league rotation, he was only slightly worse than he had been in 2007. Last year, he was able to handle a full starter's workload and was rewarded with a two-year contract from the Dodgers this winter.
[h3]Ben Sheets, 2009[/h3]
Last healthy season (200
: 198 IP, 79 FIP-First season back (2010): 119 IP, 117 FIP-
Second season back: Out of baseball
And now, for the cautionary tale. Sheets was one of the premier pitchers in baseball early in his career, and even while he battled health problems from 2006 to 2008, he remained excellent when he was on the mound. His elbow finally gave out after the 2008 season, and he spent 2009 in rehab after surgery. The success of prior Tommy John recoveries gave the A's enough confidence to sign him to a $10 million contract for 2010, but he simply wasn't the same pitcher he was before the surgery, and his elbow gave out again in July of that year. Barring an unforeseen comeback, Sheets' career appears to be over.
The results for these six pitchers should be mostly encouraging for Strasburg. While Sheets and Liriano weren't able to match their prior form, both had extensive injury issues even before they underwent Tommy John surgery. The successful returns of Carpenter, Burnett, Capuano and Eaton all suggest that the time spent on the sidelines doesn't necessarily result in a lesser pitcher, even in the first year back on the mound. Strasburg is unlikely to repeat his 2010 performance for the simple reason that no pitcher could be expected to be that good for any sustained period of time, but recent performances by Tommy John survivors suggest that Strasburg could be expected to be among the best pitchers in the game this year.
Dave Cameron covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He is the managing editor of FanGraphs, where he has worked since 2008, and he began covering baseball since he founded USSMariner.com in 2003. He has written for the Wall Street Journal since 2009. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Fantasy breakout bats.
Spoiler [+]
[h1]Fantasy breakout hitters[/h1][h3]A new formula predicts big things for Eric Hosmer, Brett Lawrie and Jay Bruce[/h3]
Updated: February 24, 2012, 9:20 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
AP Photo/Getty Images/Getty ImagesBrett Lawrie, Eric Hosmer and Jay Bruce are projected for fantasy greatness in 2012.
These projections also appear in the March 5 issue of ESPN The Magazine.
Computerized projections have come a long way in the last 15 years. With the constant march forward of technology, the models for projecting players are able to do a lot more than they could in the early days of sabermetrics.
While basic midpoint projections are very useful when applied correctly, fantasy players need more than that. After all, competing in your fantasy league isn't just an exercise in overall accuracy of evaluating players, but taking better calculated risks than the other guys.
To get an idea of the fantasy players with the biggest short-term upsides in 2012, we asked the ZiPS projection system to evaluate which players in each 5x5 fantasy category have the best odds of beating their established levels of play by a certain amount. (For players who spent time in the minors, we used minor league translations.)
For example, ZiPS says Evan Longoria has a 43 percent chance of beating his two-year home run average (27) by at least 10 jacks.
For breakout pitchers, click here.
[h4]Home runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 10 homers to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td]27[/td][td]43%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td]19[/td][td]39%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]30[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]21[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]17[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]22[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Montero[/td][td]20[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]19[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pedro Alvarez[/td][td]17[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Stanton[/td][td]36[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Home runs[/h3]
Despite already being one of the best players in baseball, ZiPS sees Longoria as having a big homer season or two in him. Still not 27 years old until after the 2012 season, Longoria still has the opportunity to develop more power, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Given Brett Lawrie's age, the odds that his 2011 power will represent a real step forward are quite high. A 29-year-old going from 8 total home runs to 27 total, despite playing harder levels, would be a reason for more skepticism, but in a 22-year-old, it's more likely a real improvement. Just don't expect Lawrie to hit .353 going forward as he did in Triple-A.
Like Lawrie, Eric Hosmer is also not done developing and has the potential to continue to improve his home run count.
You're probably surprised to see both Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton on this list. The former because he's been so terrible, and the latter because he's already one of the league's best home run hitters. Let's address them separately.
We all know Alvarez has been a big disappointment, but the power potential is still there. Besides, he could hit 30 homers in a full season of playing time and still be a liability in other facets of the game.
As for Stanton, his power is historically impressive given his age, and he's one of the few players in baseball with a real shot at hitting 50 home runs in a season. Of course, much of this depends on how the Marlins' new park plays.
[h4]RBIs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 20 RBIs to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]84[/td][td]34%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]67[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]87[/td][td]28%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]75[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]76[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]79[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td]79[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td]74[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mat Gamel[/td][td]72[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Domonic Brown[/td][td]52[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]RBIs[/h3]
For a player with Jay Bruce's isolated power (slugging-batting average) in a friendly park and on a team that finished in the top two in runs scored the last two seasons, his RBI totals, especially in 2010 when he had 70, are surprisingly on the low side. Given that he's still young enough (he turns 25 in April) to develop even more power, there's still significant upside in his RBI totals.
As you'll notice, Billy Butler, Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all appear in the top 10 for this category. The Royals' pitching isn't competitive yet, but an improving offense with more help on the horizon gives several of the young hitters on the team good shots at improving their RBI totals. Besides, most fantasy owners don't care all that much about the Royals' rotation.
As for Domonic Brown, ZiPS still likes him and projects a nice performance if he actually gets on the field. However, it's still unclear how much the Phillies like him, and he certainly won't knock in 60-plus runs if he ends up spending most of the year backing up Juan Pierre.
[h4]Batting average[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 30 points of BA to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].293[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td].305[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norichika Aoki[/td][td].298[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td]15%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Starlin Castro[/td][td].309[/td][td]13%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td].297[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td].273[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].283[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td].272[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].272[/td][td]7%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Batting average[/h3]
Yes, Hosmer appears on yet another list. He hit .293 as a 21-year-old rookie, and his low strikeout numbers and normal batting average on balls in play (.315) suggest there's nothing fluky about his ability to hit .300. In a lucky BABIP year, Hosmer's likely to be somewhere in the competition for the batting title. As you probably know, 21-year-old hitters who can be offensive pluses while playing first base tend to have bright futures.
Despite a career-low .244 batting average in 2011, Longoria's contact numbers didn't decline at all. In fact, Longoria's ability to expand his strike zone has improved, his 65 percent contact rate for balls outside the strike zone was his career-best, and his low .239 BABIP stands out like a sore thumb and is a good bet to normalize this year.
You may not know much about Jose Altuve, but he hit .327 across five minor league seasons. Though he's listed at 5-foot-7 (and some say he's shorter than that), Altuve has a knack for squaring up the ball, and could be one of the most valuable fantasy second basemen in 2012.
[h4]Runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 runs scored to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Asdrubal Cabrera[/td][td]63[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Heyward[/td][td]67[/td][td]35%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td]69[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]80[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]76[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Bourn[/td][td]89[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]58[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Zimmerman[/td][td]69[/td][td]17%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Troy Tulowitzki[/td][td]85[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td]52[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Runs[/h3]
Yunel Escobar has only scored 137 runs over the last two years despite a .353 OBP while playing for quality teams. With the Blue Jays' power-hitting lineup, Escobar's run totals should see marked improvement. And if guys like Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider can scratch their potential, watch out.
What's most amazing about Michael Bourn averaging 89 runs over the last two seasons is that he did most of that damage while hitting in a miserable Astros lineup. This strongly suggests that he could score even more for a major league offense. Bourn can find his own way to second easily, and Atlanta's superior table-clearers could get Bourn over the 100-run mark for the first time in his career.
Asdrubal Cabrera's two-year run totals were brought down a bit by injury in 2010, so expect him to be much more in line with his 2011 mark of 87. And if Shin-Soo Choo recaptures his 2010 form and Lonnie Chisenhall develops as expected, Cabrera could hit triple digits.
[h4]Stolen bases[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 steals to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td]36[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angel Pagan[/td][td]35[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carl Crawford[/td][td]33[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nyjer Morgan[/td][td]24[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Denard Span[/td][td]16[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][td]18[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Brantley[/td][td]19[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erick Aybar[/td][td]26[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew McCutchen[/td][td]28[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Young[/td][td]25[/td][td]8%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Stolen bases[/h3]
Amazingly, Jennings stole more bases in 67 games with the Rays last year (20) than he did in 89 games for Triple-A Durham (17). Fact is, the Rays are an aggressive team, and Jennings will continue to get the green light. That means that 50 to 60 stolen bases wouldn't shock anybody.
A healthier Carl Crawford recovering from a .289 OBP would do a lot to improve Crawford's paltry 18 stolen bases from 2011. He's unlikely to steal 60, and the Red Sox aren't as steal-happy as the Rays, but the team doesn't pull back the reins on its faster players. As bad as his 2011 season was, it's not as if Crawford is 35 years old. Expect a rebound.
Angel Pagan's projection depends on playing time, but it appears he will be the every-day center fielder for the Giants. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of pop in its lineup, so base stealing should be encouraged as that club will need to create runs. Pagan, who has swiped more than 30 bags in each of the last two seasons, should benefit.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Updated: February 24, 2012, 9:20 AM ET
By Dan Szymborski | Baseball Think Factory
These projections also appear in the March 5 issue of ESPN The Magazine.
Computerized projections have come a long way in the last 15 years. With the constant march forward of technology, the models for projecting players are able to do a lot more than they could in the early days of sabermetrics.
While basic midpoint projections are very useful when applied correctly, fantasy players need more than that. After all, competing in your fantasy league isn't just an exercise in overall accuracy of evaluating players, but taking better calculated risks than the other guys.
To get an idea of the fantasy players with the biggest short-term upsides in 2012, we asked the ZiPS projection system to evaluate which players in each 5x5 fantasy category have the best odds of beating their established levels of play by a certain amount. (For players who spent time in the minors, we used minor league translations.)
For example, ZiPS says Evan Longoria has a 43 percent chance of beating his two-year home run average (27) by at least 10 jacks.
For breakout pitchers, click here.
[h4]Home runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 10 homers to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td]27[/td][td]43%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td]19[/td][td]39%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]30[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]21[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]17[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]22[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesus Montero[/td][td]20[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]19[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pedro Alvarez[/td][td]17[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Stanton[/td][td]36[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Home runs[/h3]
Despite already being one of the best players in baseball, ZiPS sees Longoria as having a big homer season or two in him. Still not 27 years old until after the 2012 season, Longoria still has the opportunity to develop more power, which is a scary thought for the rest of the league.
Given Brett Lawrie's age, the odds that his 2011 power will represent a real step forward are quite high. A 29-year-old going from 8 total home runs to 27 total, despite playing harder levels, would be a reason for more skepticism, but in a 22-year-old, it's more likely a real improvement. Just don't expect Lawrie to hit .353 going forward as he did in Triple-A.
Like Lawrie, Eric Hosmer is also not done developing and has the potential to continue to improve his home run count.
You're probably surprised to see both Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton on this list. The former because he's been so terrible, and the latter because he's already one of the league's best home run hitters. Let's address them separately.
We all know Alvarez has been a big disappointment, but the power potential is still there. Besides, he could hit 30 homers in a full season of playing time and still be a liability in other facets of the game.
As for Stanton, his power is historically impressive given his age, and he's one of the few players in baseball with a real shot at hitting 50 home runs in a season. Of course, much of this depends on how the Marlins' new park plays.
[h4]RBIs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 20 RBIs to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jay Bruce[/td][td]84[/td][td]34%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]67[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]87[/td][td]28%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td]75[/td][td]25%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Adam Jones[/td][td]76[/td][td]23%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td]79[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Moustakas[/td][td]79[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.P. Arencibia[/td][td]74[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mat Gamel[/td][td]72[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Domonic Brown[/td][td]52[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]RBIs[/h3]
For a player with Jay Bruce's isolated power (slugging-batting average) in a friendly park and on a team that finished in the top two in runs scored the last two seasons, his RBI totals, especially in 2010 when he had 70, are surprisingly on the low side. Given that he's still young enough (he turns 25 in April) to develop even more power, there's still significant upside in his RBI totals.
As you'll notice, Billy Butler, Hosmer and Mike Moustakas all appear in the top 10 for this category. The Royals' pitching isn't competitive yet, but an improving offense with more help on the horizon gives several of the young hitters on the team good shots at improving their RBI totals. Besides, most fantasy owners don't care all that much about the Royals' rotation.
As for Domonic Brown, ZiPS still likes him and projects a nice performance if he actually gets on the field. However, it's still unclear how much the Phillies like him, and he certainly won't knock in 60-plus runs if he ends up spending most of the year backing up Juan Pierre.
[h4]Batting average[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add at least 30 points of BA to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td][td].293[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td].305[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Norichika Aoki[/td][td].298[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jose Altuve[/td][td].292[/td][td]15%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Starlin Castro[/td][td].309[/td][td]13%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td].297[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td].273[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Freddie Freeman[/td][td].283[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Evan Longoria[/td][td].272[/td][td]9%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Lawrie[/td][td].272[/td][td]7%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Batting average[/h3]
Yes, Hosmer appears on yet another list. He hit .293 as a 21-year-old rookie, and his low strikeout numbers and normal batting average on balls in play (.315) suggest there's nothing fluky about his ability to hit .300. In a lucky BABIP year, Hosmer's likely to be somewhere in the competition for the batting title. As you probably know, 21-year-old hitters who can be offensive pluses while playing first base tend to have bright futures.
Despite a career-low .244 batting average in 2011, Longoria's contact numbers didn't decline at all. In fact, Longoria's ability to expand his strike zone has improved, his 65 percent contact rate for balls outside the strike zone was his career-best, and his low .239 BABIP stands out like a sore thumb and is a good bet to normalize this year.
You may not know much about Jose Altuve, but he hit .327 across five minor league seasons. Though he's listed at 5-foot-7 (and some say he's shorter than that), Altuve has a knack for squaring up the ball, and could be one of the most valuable fantasy second basemen in 2012.
[h4]Runs[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 runs scored to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Asdrubal Cabrera[/td][td]63[/td][td]40%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Heyward[/td][td]67[/td][td]35%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yunel Escobar[/td][td]69[/td][td]30%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Colby Rasmus[/td][td]80[/td][td]26%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Billy Butler[/td][td]76[/td][td]24%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Bourn[/td][td]89[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Pablo Sandoval[/td][td]58[/td][td]18%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Zimmerman[/td][td]69[/td][td]17%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Troy Tulowitzki[/td][td]85[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jon Jay[/td][td]52[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Runs[/h3]
Yunel Escobar has only scored 137 runs over the last two years despite a .353 OBP while playing for quality teams. With the Blue Jays' power-hitting lineup, Escobar's run totals should see marked improvement. And if guys like Colby Rasmus and Travis Snider can scratch their potential, watch out.
What's most amazing about Michael Bourn averaging 89 runs over the last two seasons is that he did most of that damage while hitting in a miserable Astros lineup. This strongly suggests that he could score even more for a major league offense. Bourn can find his own way to second easily, and Atlanta's superior table-clearers could get Bourn over the 100-run mark for the first time in his career.
Asdrubal Cabrera's two-year run totals were brought down a bit by injury in 2010, so expect him to be much more in line with his 2011 mark of 87. And if Shin-Soo Choo recaptures his 2010 form and Lonnie Chisenhall develops as expected, Cabrera could hit triple digits.
[h4]Stolen bases[/h4]
These players are the best bets to add 10 steals to their two-year average.
[table][tr][th=""]PLAYER[/th][th=""]2-YEAR AVG.[/th][th=""]BREAKOUT ODDS[/th][/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td][td]36[/td][td]22%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Angel Pagan[/td][td]35[/td][td]20%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carl Crawford[/td][td]33[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Nyjer Morgan[/td][td]24[/td][td]19%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Denard Span[/td][td]16[/td][td]16%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alcides Escobar[/td][td]18[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Michael Brantley[/td][td]19[/td][td]14%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erick Aybar[/td][td]26[/td][td]12%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Andrew McCutchen[/td][td]28[/td][td]11%[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Young[/td][td]25[/td][td]8%[/td][/tr][/table]
[h3]Stolen bases[/h3]
Amazingly, Jennings stole more bases in 67 games with the Rays last year (20) than he did in 89 games for Triple-A Durham (17). Fact is, the Rays are an aggressive team, and Jennings will continue to get the green light. That means that 50 to 60 stolen bases wouldn't shock anybody.
A healthier Carl Crawford recovering from a .289 OBP would do a lot to improve Crawford's paltry 18 stolen bases from 2011. He's unlikely to steal 60, and the Red Sox aren't as steal-happy as the Rays, but the team doesn't pull back the reins on its faster players. As bad as his 2011 season was, it's not as if Crawford is 35 years old. Expect a rebound.
Angel Pagan's projection depends on playing time, but it appears he will be the every-day center fielder for the Giants. San Francisco doesn't have a ton of pop in its lineup, so base stealing should be encouraged as that club will need to create runs. Pagan, who has swiped more than 30 bags in each of the last two seasons, should benefit.
Dan Szymborski covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has written about the sport since 2001 for the Baseball Think Factory, where he is an editor. He is also the developer of the ZiPS Projection system. You can find his ESPN archives here and follow him on Twitter here.
Machado holds his own with big leaguers.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Machado holds his own with big leaguers
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:49
PM ET
Some notes from spring training games I hit earlier this week.
• Tsuyoshi Wada was the lower-profile of the two major Baltimore Orioles signings from Japan, the other being Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, who also pitched in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. (We won't even talk about the O's follies in Korea.) Wada's stuff is very light for a starter in the American League East, with no above-average pitch and a repertoire that will require him to go heavy on off-speed and hope to be precise with his command.
His fastball was 87-89 with little life, but he mixed in a cutter, a splitter, and a change (with the latter two possibly the same pitch). The delivery is exaggerated as we see from most NPB starters, and there is some deception both from the funk in the delivery and the way he hides the ball, but that trick usually won't get you through the league more than once unless you have stuff, and Wada doesn't.
• Orioles top prospect Manny Machado (No. 4 on my top 100) played in that same game, a split-squad game against the Atlanta Braves, and fit in surprisingly well despite his youth and inexperience, only looking bad in an at-bat against a sidearming right-hander. He also made a play at short that many big league shortstops don't make, going to his right for a tough grounder and throwing a strike to first.
• I'd hoped to see Jason Heyward or Andrelton Simmons for Atlanta, but neither played; Tyler Pastornicky was at short and he was clearly pressing at the plate with some very defensive swings. Mike Minor started for Atlanta and touched 95 mph, pitching at above-average with a changeup that showed plus and his usual command, all of which was too much for a Baltimore lineup that bordered on the hilarious.
• Back over to the Cactus League, Neftali Feliz left his start against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday early with mild shoulder stiffness that was evident early in his outing, as his arm, usually quite loose, wasn't free and easy as it usually is. He was still 92-95 and threw a few plus changeups around 85, although the pitch flattened out into a BP fastball up around 88.
He had no feel for his curveball at 79-81, getting on the side of it, leaving it up like a bad backup slider. I've advocated letting Feliz start for some time now, but even assuming the shoulder stiffness is a non-issue, he'll need to get on top of that breaking ball more consistently for him to be able to turn over a lineup three times.
• The Cubs threw reliever Alberto Cabrera, who has one of the most electric fastballs I've seen from a prospect in a long time -- but doesn't have much else. That fastball was 95-97 for two innings with plus-plus sinking life, and he was around the plate with it a lot more than you'd expect given its movement. His changeup was dead-straight and very hittable, while the slider is short but not sharp; one of those two pitches has to come along this year for him to be a viable bullpen option, but he can probably go further than most relievers with one pitch because of its velocity and life.
• Chicago's Rule 5 pick, right-hander Lendy Castillo, also showed a good arm, 90-93 hard to his arm side with some feel for a slider in the low 80s, but he's pretty raw overall and lost his command after four or five batters, walking in a run in the process.
• First baseman Anthony Rizzo (No. 36 on my top 100) played in that game as well, taking some good at-bats, one of which ended in a line drive single to the left-center gap off a 92 mph fastball from left-hander Michael Kirkman, significant in that and inability to lefties is the major hole in Rizzo's game right now. He's got his hands out from his body more than I'd like to see, as it might give him trouble covering the inner half, but the swing works once he gets his hands started and the approach remains a strength.
• On the minor league side on Wednesday, Cubs shortstop prospect Javier Baez, No. 95 on my top 100 and their first pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, showed unbelievable power with a big home run to the opposite field at Fitch Park where he didn't even fully square the ball up, only to have it take off when it left his bat. Baez later showed his youth and rawness on a three-pitch strikeout where he had already started his two-strike swing before the pitcher had released the ball.
• The same game featured Cuban outfielder Yasiel Balaguert, who the Cubs signed in December for about $350,000. He's got a young face but a somewhat mature body without much room left to fill out (except in the wrong way). The swing is pretty solid, with good weight transfer and some hip rotation to create loft; his back side goes a little soft and I didn't see him get the head of the bat down at all, as he seemed to want the ball up so he could drive it. He has bat speed and strength, but is a fringy to average runner who has to stay in right field. He's not an elite prospect but one worth watching because of the potential to hit.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:49
PM ET
Some notes from spring training games I hit earlier this week.
• Tsuyoshi Wada was the lower-profile of the two major Baltimore Orioles signings from Japan, the other being Taiwanese starter Chen Wei-Yin, who also pitched in Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball. (We won't even talk about the O's follies in Korea.) Wada's stuff is very light for a starter in the American League East, with no above-average pitch and a repertoire that will require him to go heavy on off-speed and hope to be precise with his command.
His fastball was 87-89 with little life, but he mixed in a cutter, a splitter, and a change (with the latter two possibly the same pitch). The delivery is exaggerated as we see from most NPB starters, and there is some deception both from the funk in the delivery and the way he hides the ball, but that trick usually won't get you through the league more than once unless you have stuff, and Wada doesn't.
• Orioles top prospect Manny Machado (No. 4 on my top 100) played in that same game, a split-squad game against the Atlanta Braves, and fit in surprisingly well despite his youth and inexperience, only looking bad in an at-bat against a sidearming right-hander. He also made a play at short that many big league shortstops don't make, going to his right for a tough grounder and throwing a strike to first.
• I'd hoped to see Jason Heyward or Andrelton Simmons for Atlanta, but neither played; Tyler Pastornicky was at short and he was clearly pressing at the plate with some very defensive swings. Mike Minor started for Atlanta and touched 95 mph, pitching at above-average with a changeup that showed plus and his usual command, all of which was too much for a Baltimore lineup that bordered on the hilarious.
• Back over to the Cactus League, Neftali Feliz left his start against the Chicago Cubs on Tuesday early with mild shoulder stiffness that was evident early in his outing, as his arm, usually quite loose, wasn't free and easy as it usually is. He was still 92-95 and threw a few plus changeups around 85, although the pitch flattened out into a BP fastball up around 88.
He had no feel for his curveball at 79-81, getting on the side of it, leaving it up like a bad backup slider. I've advocated letting Feliz start for some time now, but even assuming the shoulder stiffness is a non-issue, he'll need to get on top of that breaking ball more consistently for him to be able to turn over a lineup three times.
• The Cubs threw reliever Alberto Cabrera, who has one of the most electric fastballs I've seen from a prospect in a long time -- but doesn't have much else. That fastball was 95-97 for two innings with plus-plus sinking life, and he was around the plate with it a lot more than you'd expect given its movement. His changeup was dead-straight and very hittable, while the slider is short but not sharp; one of those two pitches has to come along this year for him to be a viable bullpen option, but he can probably go further than most relievers with one pitch because of its velocity and life.
• Chicago's Rule 5 pick, right-hander Lendy Castillo, also showed a good arm, 90-93 hard to his arm side with some feel for a slider in the low 80s, but he's pretty raw overall and lost his command after four or five batters, walking in a run in the process.
• First baseman Anthony Rizzo (No. 36 on my top 100) played in that game as well, taking some good at-bats, one of which ended in a line drive single to the left-center gap off a 92 mph fastball from left-hander Michael Kirkman, significant in that and inability to lefties is the major hole in Rizzo's game right now. He's got his hands out from his body more than I'd like to see, as it might give him trouble covering the inner half, but the swing works once he gets his hands started and the approach remains a strength.
• On the minor league side on Wednesday, Cubs shortstop prospect Javier Baez, No. 95 on my top 100 and their first pick in the 2011 Rule 4 draft, showed unbelievable power with a big home run to the opposite field at Fitch Park where he didn't even fully square the ball up, only to have it take off when it left his bat. Baez later showed his youth and rawness on a three-pitch strikeout where he had already started his two-strike swing before the pitcher had released the ball.
• The same game featured Cuban outfielder Yasiel Balaguert, who the Cubs signed in December for about $350,000. He's got a young face but a somewhat mature body without much room left to fill out (except in the wrong way). The swing is pretty solid, with good weight transfer and some hip rotation to create loft; his back side goes a little soft and I didn't see him get the head of the bat down at all, as he seemed to want the ball up so he could drive it. He has bat speed and strength, but is a fringy to average runner who has to stay in right field. He's not an elite prospect but one worth watching because of the potential to hit.
Steal sleepers for 2012.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Steals sleepers for 2012
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:16
PM ET
The player who led the champion http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/st-louis-cardinals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/stl/st-louis-cardinals')">St. Louis Cardinals in stolen bases a year ago is going to do so again in 2012, making him an interesting sleeper for that fantasy category.
Do you know whom I'm talking about? Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6437" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ryan Theriot, who played 132 games and stole a sad four bases in 10 attempts. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4243/rafael-furcal">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4243/rafael-furcal')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4243" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Furcal, who is a shell of his former self and barely runs anymore. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4946" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nick Punto. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5940/matt-holliday">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5940/matt-holliday')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5940" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Holliday; he attempted three steals all year. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29691" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jon Jay, who was caught seven of 13 times. And not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Albert Pujols.
This will be the fourth big league season for utility infielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30027/tyler-greene">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30027/tyler-greene')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30027" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Greene, and it will be his best. Sure, that's not saying much since the guy has a .218 career batting average in parts of three seasons and I'm not saying Greene is going to become the next http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2668" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Kent or anything, but the guy has some pop and certainly can run. Last season, Greene stole a team-high 11 bases despite getting barely 100 at-bats (13 Cardinals with more ABs). In fact, Greene has yet to be caught stealing in 16 attempts in the majors, and it's not a fluke.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyTyler Greene was a perfect 11-for-11 in steal attempts for the Cardinals in 2011.
What he has yet to earn is an opportunity to play more, but it's coming. Well past prospect status at age 28, Greene has big league stats that look nothing like what he has accomplished in the minors. Perhaps he'll never hit enough to keep a regular job, but I don't assume that based on just three seasons of fill-in work. In 2011, over a mere 66 games for Triple-A Memphis, the righty-hitting Greene swatted 14 home runs and stole 19 bases in 21 attempts. His OPS was 1.001. He totaled 31 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 2008 and '09.
Getting to repeat seasons as a Memphis Redbird helps and he doesn't draw many walks, so batting average could be a problem. But I wouldn't be shocked if Greene seizes the chance, reaches double digits in home runs and steals 20 bases this year for the Cardinals. You know who seems to agree with me? Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.
"One of the things myself, Mike [Matheny] and the major league staff thought was intriguing was giving Tyler Greene an opportunity to take this position," Mozeliak told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "His athleticism and what he brings to the table as far as speed and power … it's a unique skill set. [That] set is something that traditionally we haven't had in our lineup."
While spring numbers aren't to be trusted, it is telling that Greene leads the team in at-bats. The Cardinals seem to want him playing so they can get a good look at him. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6307/skip-schumaker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/6307/skip-schumaker')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6307" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Skip Schumaker is hurt, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30475/daniel-descalso">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30475/daniel-descalso')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30475" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Daniel Descalso is pretty uninspiring. Greene has five extra-base hits, one of them a home run, and four stolen bases in five attempts. He might even project as a top-of-the-lineup option thanks to his speed. I wanted Greene in my LABR NL auction a few weeks ago, but when the bidding hit $5 -- that's a lot in an NL-only format for a player who wasn't guaranteed playing time -- I had to drop out. I now wish I had kept going.
I wouldn't draft Greene in a 10-team mixed standard league, but watch him in deeper formats or if you're desperate for stolen bases. Below is a list of 20 other players not among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts and owned in fewer than 5 percent of leagues who are capable of stealing 20-plus bases:
[h3]Outfielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireOnly one player (Michael Bourn) has stolen more bases than Rajai Davis over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28545" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rajai Davis, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays: Both http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Travis Snider and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Thames have hit well this spring, but Davis will make the team. He has averaged 42 steals (in only 121 games) over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29683/alex-presley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29683/alex-presley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29683" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Presley, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/pit/pittsburgh-pirates')">Pittsburgh Pirates: Unlike Davis, Presley likely will start. He doesn't have quite as much speed, but he did steal 22 bases in 87 Triple-A games in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29224/will-venable">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29224/will-venable')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29224" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Will Venable, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/sd/san-diego-padres')">San Diego Padres: Not really a sleeper anymore, but he has 55 steals over the past two seasons and is line for plenty of playing time.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29759" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Young Jr., http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies: Yes, he's on this list seemingly every year. He's the NL version of Davis, not really a good player but very fast and not needing a ton of at-bats to steal 20 bases. Note that he does not have second-base eligibility in most league setups.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29262/jason-bourgeois">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/29262/jason-bourgeois')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29262" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Bourgeois, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/kc/kansas-city-royals')">Kansas City Royals: Also outfield only, but I don't think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29416" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Lorenzo Cain is going to flop, so don't look for Bourgeois to play a lot.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4486" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Juan Pierre, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...hi/philadelphia-phillies')">Philadelphia Phillies: Will likely play more than he should, and that means chances to run.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5089/andres-torres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5089/andres-torres')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5089" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andres Torres, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets: Terrific bounce-back option. He's leading off, and the Mets will run plenty.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28762/carlos-gomez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28762/carlos-gomez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28762" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Gomez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers: Speaking of the Mets, remember when Gomez was going to be a star? Now he's waiting for http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28885" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nyjer Morgan to fail, which is quite possible.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28971/jordan-schafer">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/28971/jordan-schafer')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28971" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jordan Schafer, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/hou/houston-astros')">Houston Astros: Well, he's going to play. I actually like him more than most. Seems to me he has been a bit unlucky health-wise, but he can run a bit.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30267/craig-gentry">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30267/craig-gentry')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30267" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Craig Gentry, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers: He can run a lot, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Leonys Martin isn't ready, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30014/julio-borbon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30014/julio-borbon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30014" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Julio Borbon isn't anything special. Gentry was a perfect 18-for-18 in steals last year in 133 big league at-bats.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29367/jose-constanza">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29367/jose-constanza')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29367" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Constanza, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves: He's fast and a potential beneficiary when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jones">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3006/chipper-jones')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3006" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chipper Jones sits and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6513" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Martin Prado moves to third base.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4727" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Endy Chavez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles: It seems ridiculous, but it appears he'll be Buck Showalter's leadoff hitter. Perhaps we should leave it at that.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30485/collin-cowgill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30485/collin-cowgill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30485" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Collin Cowgill, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics: Monster numbers at Triple-A Reno last season, though you can disregard his .354 batting average. The speed is legit, however, and he has a brighter future than http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28661/gregor-blanco">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28661/gregor-blanco')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28661" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gregor Blanco, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants: He's leading everyone with nine stolen bases this spring and is coming off an MVP season in the Venezuelan winter league. It likely will result in a roster spot, and if/when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6488" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Angel Pagan gets hurt …
[h3]Infielders[/h3]
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Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesEduardo Nunez finished third on the Yankees with 22 steals in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30290/eduardo-nunez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30290/eduardo-nunez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30290" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eduardo Nunez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees: The heir apparent to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3246" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Jeter stole 22 bases in limited work last season. Don't be surprised to see more DH work for Jeter and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3115/alex-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3115" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Rodriguez.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28575/alexi-casilla">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28575/alexi-casilla')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28575" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alexi Casilla, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins: Has the second-base job and the ability to swipe a base per week. He might even hit second in the lineup.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Pastornicky, Braves: He'll likely beat out raw Andrelton Simmons for the shortstop job and steal 20 bases. Won't help you much elsewhere, though.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29670/freddy-galvis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29670/freddy-galvis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29670" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Freddy Galvis, Phillies: The backup to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5383" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase Utley and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4258" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jimmy Rollins stole 23 bases in the minors last season, and unfortunately, he's likely to play a lot. I guess it's good for Freddy.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d'arnaud')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30676" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase d'Arnaud, Pirates: Stole 12 bases in 48 games for the big club, and let's just say http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5798" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clint Barmes isn't the most durable fellow.
Billy Hamilton, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/cin/cincinnati-reds')">Cincinnati Reds: This is the guy who stole 103 bases in the minors last year. He's not ready offensively or defensively for the bigs, but if http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30466" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Cozart isn't either, Hamilton could be on the fast track.
Finally, here's a reminder that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, while starting their respective seasons in the minors, do run. Trout should run a lot. Harper is fast enough to steal 20 bases as well if given enough playing time.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
3:16
PM ET
The player who led the champion http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/stl/st-louis-cardinals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/stl/st-louis-cardinals')">St. Louis Cardinals in stolen bases a year ago is going to do so again in 2012, making him an interesting sleeper for that fantasy category.
Do you know whom I'm talking about? Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6437/ryan-theriot')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6437" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ryan Theriot, who played 132 games and stole a sad four bases in 10 attempts. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4243/rafael-furcal">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4243/rafael-furcal')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4243" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rafael Furcal, who is a shell of his former self and barely runs anymore. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4946/nick-punto')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4946" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nick Punto. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5940/matt-holliday">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5940/matt-holliday')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5940" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Holliday; he attempted three steals all year. Not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29691/jon-jay')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29691" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jon Jay, who was caught seven of 13 times. And not http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Albert Pujols.
This will be the fourth big league season for utility infielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30027/tyler-greene">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30027/tyler-greene')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30027" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Greene, and it will be his best. Sure, that's not saying much since the guy has a .218 career batting average in parts of three seasons and I'm not saying Greene is going to become the next http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2668/jeff-kent')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2668" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jeff Kent or anything, but the guy has some pop and certainly can run. Last season, Greene stole a team-high 11 bases despite getting barely 100 at-bats (13 Cardinals with more ABs). In fact, Greene has yet to be caught stealing in 16 attempts in the majors, and it's not a fluke.
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AP Photo/Patrick SemanskyTyler Greene was a perfect 11-for-11 in steal attempts for the Cardinals in 2011.What he has yet to earn is an opportunity to play more, but it's coming. Well past prospect status at age 28, Greene has big league stats that look nothing like what he has accomplished in the minors. Perhaps he'll never hit enough to keep a regular job, but I don't assume that based on just three seasons of fill-in work. In 2011, over a mere 66 games for Triple-A Memphis, the righty-hitting Greene swatted 14 home runs and stole 19 bases in 21 attempts. His OPS was 1.001. He totaled 31 home runs and 51 stolen bases in 2008 and '09.
Getting to repeat seasons as a Memphis Redbird helps and he doesn't draw many walks, so batting average could be a problem. But I wouldn't be shocked if Greene seizes the chance, reaches double digits in home runs and steals 20 bases this year for the Cardinals. You know who seems to agree with me? Cardinals GM John Mozeliak.
"One of the things myself, Mike [Matheny] and the major league staff thought was intriguing was giving Tyler Greene an opportunity to take this position," Mozeliak told the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "His athleticism and what he brings to the table as far as speed and power … it's a unique skill set. [That] set is something that traditionally we haven't had in our lineup."
While spring numbers aren't to be trusted, it is telling that Greene leads the team in at-bats. The Cardinals seem to want him playing so they can get a good look at him. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6307/skip-schumaker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/6307/skip-schumaker')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6307" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Skip Schumaker is hurt, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30475/daniel-descalso">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30475/daniel-descalso')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30475" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Daniel Descalso is pretty uninspiring. Greene has five extra-base hits, one of them a home run, and four stolen bases in five attempts. He might even project as a top-of-the-lineup option thanks to his speed. I wanted Greene in my LABR NL auction a few weeks ago, but when the bidding hit $5 -- that's a lot in an NL-only format for a player who wasn't guaranteed playing time -- I had to drop out. I now wish I had kept going.
I wouldn't draft Greene in a 10-team mixed standard league, but watch him in deeper formats or if you're desperate for stolen bases. Below is a list of 20 other players not among the top 260 in ESPN average live drafts and owned in fewer than 5 percent of leagues who are capable of stealing 20-plus bases:
[h3]Outfielders[/h3]
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Anthony Gruppuso/US PresswireOnly one player (Michael Bourn) has stolen more bases than Rajai Davis over the past three seasons.http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28545/rajai-davis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28545" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rajai Davis, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays: Both http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Travis Snider and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Thames have hit well this spring, but Davis will make the team. He has averaged 42 steals (in only 121 games) over the past three seasons.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29683/alex-presley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29683/alex-presley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29683" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Presley, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/pit/pittsburgh-pirates">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/pit/pittsburgh-pirates')">Pittsburgh Pirates: Unlike Davis, Presley likely will start. He doesn't have quite as much speed, but he did steal 22 bases in 87 Triple-A games in 2011.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29224/will-venable">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29224/will-venable')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29224" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Will Venable, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sd/san-diego-padres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/sd/san-diego-padres')">San Diego Padres: Not really a sleeper anymore, but he has 55 steals over the past two seasons and is line for plenty of playing time.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29759/eric-young')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29759" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eric Young Jr., http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies: Yes, he's on this list seemingly every year. He's the NL version of Davis, not really a good player but very fast and not needing a ton of at-bats to steal 20 bases. Note that he does not have second-base eligibility in most league setups.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29262/jason-bourgeois">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/29262/jason-bourgeois')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29262" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jason Bourgeois, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/kc/kansas-city-royals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/kc/kansas-city-royals')">Kansas City Royals: Also outfield only, but I don't think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29416/lorenzo-cain')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29416" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Lorenzo Cain is going to flop, so don't look for Bourgeois to play a lot.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4486/juan-pierre')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4486" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Juan Pierre, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/phi/philadelphia-phillies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...hi/philadelphia-phillies')">Philadelphia Phillies: Will likely play more than he should, and that means chances to run.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5089/andres-torres">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/5089/andres-torres')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5089" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andres Torres, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets: Terrific bounce-back option. He's leading off, and the Mets will run plenty.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28762/carlos-gomez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28762/carlos-gomez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28762" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Gomez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers: Speaking of the Mets, remember when Gomez was going to be a star? Now he's waiting for http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28885/nyjer-morgan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28885" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Nyjer Morgan to fail, which is quite possible.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28971/jordan-schafer">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/28971/jordan-schafer')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28971" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jordan Schafer, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/hou/houston-astros">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/hou/houston-astros')">Houston Astros: Well, he's going to play. I actually like him more than most. Seems to me he has been a bit unlucky health-wise, but he can run a bit.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30267/craig-gentry">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30267/craig-gentry')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30267" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Craig Gentry, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers: He can run a lot, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Leonys Martin isn't ready, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30014/julio-borbon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30014/julio-borbon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30014" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Julio Borbon isn't anything special. Gentry was a perfect 18-for-18 in steals last year in 133 big league at-bats.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29367/jose-constanza">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29367/jose-constanza')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29367" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Constanza, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves: He's fast and a potential beneficiary when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3006/chipper-jones">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3006/chipper-jones')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3006" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chipper Jones sits and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6513/martin-prado')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6513" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Martin Prado moves to third base.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4727/endy-chavez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4727" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Endy Chavez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles: It seems ridiculous, but it appears he'll be Buck Showalter's leadoff hitter. Perhaps we should leave it at that.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30485/collin-cowgill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30485/collin-cowgill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30485" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Collin Cowgill, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics: Monster numbers at Triple-A Reno last season, though you can disregard his .354 batting average. The speed is legit, however, and he has a brighter future than http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28661/gregor-blanco">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28661/gregor-blanco')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28661" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gregor Blanco, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants: He's leading everyone with nine stolen bases this spring and is coming off an MVP season in the Venezuelan winter league. It likely will result in a roster spot, and if/when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6488/angel-pagan')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6488" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Angel Pagan gets hurt …
[h3]Infielders[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesEduardo Nunez finished third on the Yankees with 22 steals in 2011.http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30290/eduardo-nunez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30290/eduardo-nunez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30290" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Eduardo Nunez, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees: The heir apparent to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3246/derek-jeter')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3246" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Jeter stole 22 bases in limited work last season. Don't be surprised to see more DH work for Jeter and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3115/alex-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3115/alex-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3115" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alex Rodriguez.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28575/alexi-casilla">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28575/alexi-casilla')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28575" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Alexi Casilla, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins: Has the second-base job and the ability to swipe a base per week. He might even hit second in the lineup.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Tyler Pastornicky, Braves: He'll likely beat out raw Andrelton Simmons for the shortstop job and steal 20 bases. Won't help you much elsewhere, though.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29670/freddy-galvis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29670/freddy-galvis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29670" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Freddy Galvis, Phillies: The backup to http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5383/chase-utley')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5383" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase Utley and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4258/jimmy-rollins')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4258" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jimmy Rollins stole 23 bases in the minors last season, and unfortunately, he's likely to play a lot. I guess it's good for Freddy.
http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30676/chase-d'arnaud')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30676" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Chase d'Arnaud, Pirates: Stole 12 bases in 48 games for the big club, and let's just say http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5798/clint-barmes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5798" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Clint Barmes isn't the most durable fellow.
Billy Hamilton, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cin/cincinnati-reds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/cin/cincinnati-reds')">Cincinnati Reds: This is the guy who stole 103 bases in the minors last year. He's not ready offensively or defensively for the bigs, but if http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30466/zack-cozart')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30466" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Zack Cozart isn't either, Hamilton could be on the fast track.
Finally, here's a reminder that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, while starting their respective seasons in the minors, do run. Trout should run a lot. Harper is fast enough to steal 20 bases as well if given enough playing time.
Casting the first ballot for Chipper.
Spoiler [+]
[h3]Casting the first ballot for Chipper
[/h3]
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
9:31
AM ET
Patrick Smith/Getty ImagesChipper Jones will retire as one of the best third basemen in the history of baseball.
FT. MYERS, Fla. -- The topic was milestones and Chipper Jones was asked the other day if there was any number -- any statistical standard -- that he still wanted. He has 454 homers, 2,615 hits, 1,561 runs scored and 1,561 RBIs.
Jones stood up from his locker in the visitors' clubhouse at the Tigers' camp, and he began walking toward the door, carrying two bats.
Over his shoulder, he answered that yeah, he could theoretically stick around and hit the 46 homers he needs to reach 500 for his career. But his tone was dismissive, and he steered the conversation into something he is more interested in now, at age 39: Watching his kids play sports.
We know now that the day before, he had told Atlanta Braves general manager Frank Wren that he intends to retire after this season. Jones still feels he can be a productive hitter, but he is wary of the questions about his future, and the nagging injuries that have limited him to 221 games in the last two seasons aren't going away.
Assuming that Jones doesn't change his mind, his name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in December 2017, and he is an easy first-ballot selection. A no-brainer. To not vote for him, in fact, would be inexcusable.
His career résumé is spotless.
Big numbers? Check.
One of the greatest ever at his position? Check. Among third basemen, he'd be ranked somewhere with Mike Schmidt and George Brett.
A period of dominance in his career, when he's among the best players in his league? Check. He won the MVP in 1999 and was in the top 11 in the MVP voting in seven consecutive seasons.
Team success? Check. The guy lived in the playoffs at the outset of his career and clubbed 23 homers in his rookie season when the Braves won the World Series. Jones has 412 plate appearances in his career in the playoffs and Fall Classic.
PED clearance? Check. In a time of shifting and loose Hall of Fame standards, a huge block of writers won't vote for anyone suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs, and Jones -- like Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter -- has gone through his career without whispers following him.
Jones has served the sport extraordinarily well, in how he has played and how he has carried himself.
Chipper wants to work with the team after he retires, writes David O'Brien. He wanted to get this over with.
After talking with Jones the other day, I walked away convinced that some day he will be a hitting coach in the big leagues. He loves talking about hitting and problem-solving with a swing, in the same way that Tony Gwynn does.
A rival pitcher says Jones is an easy Hall of Famer. With Chipper retiring, New York Mets pitchers are catching a break, writes Benjamin Hoffman.
[h4]Chipper Jones[/h4]
Where Chipper Jones ranks all time among switch hitters (minimum 1,000 games played).
[table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Jones[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].304[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]OBP[/td][td].402[/td][td]4th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slug pct[/td][td].533[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]HR[/td][td]454[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]5th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Games played[/td][td]2,387[/td][td]10th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Total bases[/td][td]4,579[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][/table]
From ESPN Stats and Info, more on Jones:
• Selected by the Braves first overall in 1990 draft
• 1999 National League MVP
• 1995 World Series champion
• Seven-time All-Star (1996-98, 2000-01, 2008, 2011)
• Two-time Silver Slugger (1999-2000)
• Among active players, only Jones and Derek Jeter have played at least 2,300 games while playing for only one team
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jeff Moorad stepped down, and the Padres' front office is in a state of flux, again, as Tim Sullivan writes. Moorad won't have an office at Petco Park.
The number of owner/CEO/GM changes for San Diego in the past five years is closing in on double-digits.
• Kendrys Morales was in a major league game for the first time in 664 days on Thursday, and he had a couple of hits. Pretty cool. For Morales, watching others play was painful, writes Bill Plunkett. From Bill's story:
• The catching market has been completely reset by Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million deal, at the worst possible time for the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona wants to re-sign Miguel Montero and Texas wants to lock up Mike Napoli, but now the asking price for both players has climbed; both are eligible for free agency in the fall, when the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs and other teams will be looking for catching, and catching is scarce.
• Raul Ibanez stood at the railing Thursday evening and talked about how much he liked watching Adrian Gonzalez take batting practice, because everything in the first baseman's swing is steady, consistent, smooth. "He's not rushed," said Ibanez.
Right now, scouts say, Ibanez is caught between being too slow and starting too fast, and he's working through the timing in his swing. Ibanez is 39 years old, going on 40 in June, and his bat speed is not where it used to be. In order to catch up with fastballs, he needs to get his bat started quicker.
But in doing that -- in starting too quickly -- a hitter can essentially lock up his hands and his swing can actually be slower. Jason Heyward is much younger than Ibanez, and he's dealing with a similar issue: Because he's so quick to start in his swing, in a rush of movement, he sometimes loses the fluidity and consistency of movement through the swing.
Ibanez is looking for what Gonzalez has: timing. In recent days, scouts had indicated that Ibanez is slowly improving, and because the New York Yankees watched Marcus Thames and Andruw Jones struggle the last two springs, they aren't really that fazed by Ibanez's ugly spring numbers. Ibanez will be part of the team on Opening Day.
But the timing was not there for Ibanez on Thursday. He grounded out in his first two at-bats and struck out in his third at-bat, lowering his spring average to .054. He's 2-for-37.
Ibanez has not been a hit, writes Dan Martin.
• Carl Crawford feels that the way his left wrist is being taped before he swings a bat helps because of the support it provides. As he hits off a tee, the tape just makes the top-hand movement in his swing more comfortable. But Crawford runs away from projecting any timetable for a return. "That's how I got into this problem in the first place," said Crawford, who had a setback earlier in camp as he pushed himself.
Crawford's approach now is to show up each day and do what he's asked to do by the Boston staff, rather than look ahead and work toward a date in his mind when he'll be back in the lineup. The bottom line is that the Red Sox have no idea when Crawford will play again.
Crawford is looking toward Jacoby Ellsbury for inspiration, writes John Tomase.
• Bobby Valentine mentioned to reporters on Thursday that a possible return for Daisuke Matsuzaka by June 1 is "mapped out." By all accounts, Matsuzaka looks stronger and more fit.
• If you are a Chicago White Sox fan and thought your squad threw to first base a lot last year, you're right. From the Elias Sports Bureau, the most pickoff attempts in 2011:
White Sox: 897
Padres: 890
Dodgers: 889
Athletics: 856
Royals: 853
Yankees: 833
Rangers: 818
Braves: 803
Diamondbacks: 789
Marlins: 771
• Valentine was irked by how the Yankees-Red Sox game ended. He got a big headline on the Boston Globe website for that.
• Wandy Rodriguez is having a rough spring.
• The Washington Nationals are being riddled with injuries, and Michael Morse hasn't played in the field.
• Ryan Madson has apparently had a setback, as John Fay writes.
• Adam Dunn clubbed a couple of homers. This offseason, he made structural changes in his swing, lowering his hands.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Pastornicky had a really, really good day in his battle to be the Braves' shortstop.
2. Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik are fighting for a spot with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Charlie Manuel made a case for Pierre.
3. Danny Worth is battling Brandon Inge for a roster spot, as Lynn Henning writes.
4. Drew Smyly had a really good day in his fight to be the No. 5 starter for the Detroit Tigers.
5. Injuries are impacting the Cleveland left field competition.
6. Randy Wells is competing for the No. 5 spot in the Cubs' rotation.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Mariners left for Seattle with 30 players. The Oakland Athletics got their wish to play in Japan, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Jeremy Guthrie is the Rockies' Opening Day starter.
3. Erik Bedard is getting the ball on Opening Day.
4. The Dodgers cut a reliever.
5. Some newcomers arrived in the Royals' camp.
6. Freddy Garcia would have to approve a trade before June 16, but he wants to pitch, as David Waldstein writes.
Brian Cashman was on the field before the Boston-New York exhibition Thursday, and generally, he steered around questions about the rotation. But he had high praise for Phil Hughes. "If Phil Hughes is healthy, I know what type of pitcher he is," Cashman said. "He's still one of the young guns, for me, in the game."
Here's the thing: Hughes has shown he had a high ceiling, making the All-Star team in 2010. And he struggled enough last year to diminish his current trade value; no team would give the Yankees a boatload of prospects for Hughes right after the right-hander's struggles for most of 2011.
And right now, the Yankees would ask for a boatload. There isn't much quality pitching available on the open market, and there is no reason for the Yankees to rush Hughes out the door. They can set a high price and sit back and wait for some other team to say yes, and there's really no downside for them if they need to shift Hughes to the bullpen to make that happen. By midseason, the Yankees could have a bullpen of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Hughes.
In all likelihood, Hughes isn't going anywhere.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. With Reid Brignac likely out at the start of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are adjusting.
2. Ryan Howard is making progress.
3. The Padres are getting hammered by injuries, writes Bill Center.
4. Neftali Feliz's shoulder tightness is typical. It's very possible Feliz will start the year in the minors.
5. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher is confident his elbow issues are behind him, writes Eduardo Encina.
6. David Wright felt good in batting practice.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Lincecum threw against some minor leaguers, writes Henry Schulman.
2. The San Francisco Giants had a rough day at the plate.
3. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
4. Gio Gonzalez had a bad day but smiled at the end of it, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Cliff Lee threw the ball well.
6. Jaime Garcia had a strong start.
March, 23, 2012
Mar 23
9:31
AM ET
FT. MYERS, Fla. -- The topic was milestones and Chipper Jones was asked the other day if there was any number -- any statistical standard -- that he still wanted. He has 454 homers, 2,615 hits, 1,561 runs scored and 1,561 RBIs.
Jones stood up from his locker in the visitors' clubhouse at the Tigers' camp, and he began walking toward the door, carrying two bats.
Over his shoulder, he answered that yeah, he could theoretically stick around and hit the 46 homers he needs to reach 500 for his career. But his tone was dismissive, and he steered the conversation into something he is more interested in now, at age 39: Watching his kids play sports.
We know now that the day before, he had told Atlanta Braves general manager Frank Wren that he intends to retire after this season. Jones still feels he can be a productive hitter, but he is wary of the questions about his future, and the nagging injuries that have limited him to 221 games in the last two seasons aren't going away.
Assuming that Jones doesn't change his mind, his name will appear on the Hall of Fame ballot in December 2017, and he is an easy first-ballot selection. A no-brainer. To not vote for him, in fact, would be inexcusable.
His career résumé is spotless.
Big numbers? Check.
One of the greatest ever at his position? Check. Among third basemen, he'd be ranked somewhere with Mike Schmidt and George Brett.
A period of dominance in his career, when he's among the best players in his league? Check. He won the MVP in 1999 and was in the top 11 in the MVP voting in seven consecutive seasons.
Team success? Check. The guy lived in the playoffs at the outset of his career and clubbed 23 homers in his rookie season when the Braves won the World Series. Jones has 412 plate appearances in his career in the playoffs and Fall Classic.
PED clearance? Check. In a time of shifting and loose Hall of Fame standards, a huge block of writers won't vote for anyone suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs, and Jones -- like Ken Griffey Jr. and Derek Jeter -- has gone through his career without whispers following him.
Jones has served the sport extraordinarily well, in how he has played and how he has carried himself.
Chipper wants to work with the team after he retires, writes David O'Brien. He wanted to get this over with.
After talking with Jones the other day, I walked away convinced that some day he will be a hitting coach in the big leagues. He loves talking about hitting and problem-solving with a swing, in the same way that Tony Gwynn does.
A rival pitcher says Jones is an easy Hall of Famer. With Chipper retiring, New York Mets pitchers are catching a break, writes Benjamin Hoffman.
[h4]Chipper Jones[/h4]
Where Chipper Jones ranks all time among switch hitters (minimum 1,000 games played).
[table][tr][th=""]Stat[/th][th=""]Jones[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]BA[/td][td].304[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]OBP[/td][td].402[/td][td]4th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Slug pct[/td][td].533[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]HR[/td][td]454[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][tr][td]RBI[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]2nd[/td][/tr][tr][td]Runs[/td][td]1,561[/td][td]5th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Games played[/td][td]2,387[/td][td]10th[/td][/tr][tr][td]Total bases[/td][td]4,579[/td][td]3rd[/td][/tr][/table]
From ESPN Stats and Info, more on Jones:
• Selected by the Braves first overall in 1990 draft
• 1999 National League MVP
• 1995 World Series champion
• Seven-time All-Star (1996-98, 2000-01, 2008, 2011)
• Two-time Silver Slugger (1999-2000)
• Among active players, only Jones and Derek Jeter have played at least 2,300 games while playing for only one team
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jeff Moorad stepped down, and the Padres' front office is in a state of flux, again, as Tim Sullivan writes. Moorad won't have an office at Petco Park.
The number of owner/CEO/GM changes for San Diego in the past five years is closing in on double-digits.
• Kendrys Morales was in a major league game for the first time in 664 days on Thursday, and he had a couple of hits. Pretty cool. For Morales, watching others play was painful, writes Bill Plunkett. From Bill's story:
- Morales had played in minor league camp games three times leading up to Thursday, going from first base to home on a teammate's triple in one of those games. His ankle passed a similar test Thursday. After his first single, Morales went to third base on Bobby Abreu's double down the left-field line, arriving safely -- in more ways than one -- with a slide.
- "Everybody was waiting for me to come back and be in a major league game and I did that today," Morales said Thursday. "I'm thinking now it will be smooth sailing."
• The catching market has been completely reset by Yadier Molina's five-year, $75 million deal, at the worst possible time for the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona wants to re-sign Miguel Montero and Texas wants to lock up Mike Napoli, but now the asking price for both players has climbed; both are eligible for free agency in the fall, when the Los Angeles Angels and Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs and other teams will be looking for catching, and catching is scarce.
• Raul Ibanez stood at the railing Thursday evening and talked about how much he liked watching Adrian Gonzalez take batting practice, because everything in the first baseman's swing is steady, consistent, smooth. "He's not rushed," said Ibanez.
Right now, scouts say, Ibanez is caught between being too slow and starting too fast, and he's working through the timing in his swing. Ibanez is 39 years old, going on 40 in June, and his bat speed is not where it used to be. In order to catch up with fastballs, he needs to get his bat started quicker.
But in doing that -- in starting too quickly -- a hitter can essentially lock up his hands and his swing can actually be slower. Jason Heyward is much younger than Ibanez, and he's dealing with a similar issue: Because he's so quick to start in his swing, in a rush of movement, he sometimes loses the fluidity and consistency of movement through the swing.
Ibanez is looking for what Gonzalez has: timing. In recent days, scouts had indicated that Ibanez is slowly improving, and because the New York Yankees watched Marcus Thames and Andruw Jones struggle the last two springs, they aren't really that fazed by Ibanez's ugly spring numbers. Ibanez will be part of the team on Opening Day.
But the timing was not there for Ibanez on Thursday. He grounded out in his first two at-bats and struck out in his third at-bat, lowering his spring average to .054. He's 2-for-37.
Ibanez has not been a hit, writes Dan Martin.
• Carl Crawford feels that the way his left wrist is being taped before he swings a bat helps because of the support it provides. As he hits off a tee, the tape just makes the top-hand movement in his swing more comfortable. But Crawford runs away from projecting any timetable for a return. "That's how I got into this problem in the first place," said Crawford, who had a setback earlier in camp as he pushed himself.
Crawford's approach now is to show up each day and do what he's asked to do by the Boston staff, rather than look ahead and work toward a date in his mind when he'll be back in the lineup. The bottom line is that the Red Sox have no idea when Crawford will play again.
Crawford is looking toward Jacoby Ellsbury for inspiration, writes John Tomase.
• Bobby Valentine mentioned to reporters on Thursday that a possible return for Daisuke Matsuzaka by June 1 is "mapped out." By all accounts, Matsuzaka looks stronger and more fit.
• If you are a Chicago White Sox fan and thought your squad threw to first base a lot last year, you're right. From the Elias Sports Bureau, the most pickoff attempts in 2011:
White Sox: 897
Padres: 890
Dodgers: 889
Athletics: 856
Royals: 853
Yankees: 833
Rangers: 818
Braves: 803
Diamondbacks: 789
Marlins: 771
• Valentine was irked by how the Yankees-Red Sox game ended. He got a big headline on the Boston Globe website for that.
• Wandy Rodriguez is having a rough spring.
• The Washington Nationals are being riddled with injuries, and Michael Morse hasn't played in the field.
• Ryan Madson has apparently had a setback, as John Fay writes.
• Adam Dunn clubbed a couple of homers. This offseason, he made structural changes in his swing, lowering his hands.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Tyler Pastornicky had a really, really good day in his battle to be the Braves' shortstop.
2. Juan Pierre and Scott Podsednik are fighting for a spot with the Philadelphia Phillies, and Charlie Manuel made a case for Pierre.
3. Danny Worth is battling Brandon Inge for a roster spot, as Lynn Henning writes.
4. Drew Smyly had a really good day in his fight to be the No. 5 starter for the Detroit Tigers.
5. Injuries are impacting the Cleveland left field competition.
6. Randy Wells is competing for the No. 5 spot in the Cubs' rotation.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Mariners left for Seattle with 30 players. The Oakland Athletics got their wish to play in Japan, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Jeremy Guthrie is the Rockies' Opening Day starter.
3. Erik Bedard is getting the ball on Opening Day.
4. The Dodgers cut a reliever.
5. Some newcomers arrived in the Royals' camp.
6. Freddy Garcia would have to approve a trade before June 16, but he wants to pitch, as David Waldstein writes.
Brian Cashman was on the field before the Boston-New York exhibition Thursday, and generally, he steered around questions about the rotation. But he had high praise for Phil Hughes. "If Phil Hughes is healthy, I know what type of pitcher he is," Cashman said. "He's still one of the young guns, for me, in the game."
Here's the thing: Hughes has shown he had a high ceiling, making the All-Star team in 2010. And he struggled enough last year to diminish his current trade value; no team would give the Yankees a boatload of prospects for Hughes right after the right-hander's struggles for most of 2011.
And right now, the Yankees would ask for a boatload. There isn't much quality pitching available on the open market, and there is no reason for the Yankees to rush Hughes out the door. They can set a high price and sit back and wait for some other team to say yes, and there's really no downside for them if they need to shift Hughes to the bullpen to make that happen. By midseason, the Yankees could have a bullpen of Mariano Rivera, David Robertson, Rafael Soriano and Hughes.
In all likelihood, Hughes isn't going anywhere.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. With Reid Brignac likely out at the start of the season, the Tampa Bay Rays are adjusting.
2. Ryan Howard is making progress.
3. The Padres are getting hammered by injuries, writes Bill Center.
4. Neftali Feliz's shoulder tightness is typical. It's very possible Feliz will start the year in the minors.
5. A Baltimore Orioles pitcher is confident his elbow issues are behind him, writes Eduardo Encina.
6. David Wright felt good in batting practice.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Lincecum threw against some minor leaguers, writes Henry Schulman.
2. The San Francisco Giants had a rough day at the plate.
3. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
4. Gio Gonzalez had a bad day but smiled at the end of it, writes Adam Kilgore.
5. Cliff Lee threw the ball well.
6. Jaime Garcia had a strong start.
Greg Holland: KC's closer of the future.
Spoiler [+]
On the heels of news that Joakim Soria will need Tommy John surgery, the Royals’ bullpen is a state of flux. Luckily, unlike most bullpens around the majors, the Royals have excellent options to fill the role. Jonathan Broxton may be the frontrunner for the job, given his history as a stud with the Dodgers. But the closer of the future is already in the Royals’ bullpen, and even if he doesn’t become the closer of the present, Greg Holland is already making hitters take notice.
Holland combines a blazing fastball (95 MPH average velocity) with that vicious slider with excellent results. In 78.2 major league innings, Holland has struck out 97 batters against just 27 walks. Last season, it was 74 strikeouts to 19 walks. He induced more ground balls than fly balls. Only Jonathan Papelbon earned more swings and misses than Holland’s 16.6% ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA — all under 2.70, all except xFIP under 2.30. Hell, he even picked up five wins.
It would be understandable if the Royals went to Jonathan Broxton over Holland in the closer’s role to start the season. Ostensibly, the Royals see Broxton as a reclamation project they can use to build trade value over the course of the season, and there’s not a better place for a reliever to do that than as the closer. And let’s not forget, when Broxton’s on, he’s every bit as good as what Holland showed last year. From 2007-2009 Broxton recorded 301 strikeouts to just 81 walks in 227 innings, posting an ERA- of 68 as he earned the closership in Los Angeles.
Still, Broxton is on a one-year deal, and his time in Kansas City is nothing more than a transition phase — to a playoff team if he succeeds or to retirement (forced or otherwise) if injury problems and ineffectiveness continue to bite. Greg Holland’s time in the Kansas City bullpen spotlight is coming, and current circumstances suggest it will be sooner rather than later.
Holland combines a blazing fastball (95 MPH average velocity) with that vicious slider with excellent results. In 78.2 major league innings, Holland has struck out 97 batters against just 27 walks. Last season, it was 74 strikeouts to 19 walks. He induced more ground balls than fly balls. Only Jonathan Papelbon earned more swings and misses than Holland’s 16.6% ERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, tERA — all under 2.70, all except xFIP under 2.30. Hell, he even picked up five wins.
It would be understandable if the Royals went to Jonathan Broxton over Holland in the closer’s role to start the season. Ostensibly, the Royals see Broxton as a reclamation project they can use to build trade value over the course of the season, and there’s not a better place for a reliever to do that than as the closer. And let’s not forget, when Broxton’s on, he’s every bit as good as what Holland showed last year. From 2007-2009 Broxton recorded 301 strikeouts to just 81 walks in 227 innings, posting an ERA- of 68 as he earned the closership in Los Angeles.
Still, Broxton is on a one-year deal, and his time in Kansas City is nothing more than a transition phase — to a playoff team if he succeeds or to retirement (forced or otherwise) if injury problems and ineffectiveness continue to bite. Greg Holland’s time in the Kansas City bullpen spotlight is coming, and current circumstances suggest it will be sooner rather than later.
Matt Bush arrested for DUI.
Spoiler [+]
Matt Bush screwed up. Again. According to Roger Mooney, the former first overall draft pick was arrested Thursday night for DUI. As if that weren’t bad enough, Bush is also responsible for a hit and run in which he seriously injured a 72-year-old motorist and fled the scene before he was picked up by law enforcement.
Bush had already been trying to rehabilitate his image following a night club brawl in 2004 and an alleged assault in 2009. After washing out with the San Diego Padres, Bush, now 26-years-old, was attempting to comeback as a reliever with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Considering the severity of this incident, it doesn’t seem appropriate to bring up Bush’s baseball history. Unfortunately, it’s part of the reason he was still in the game. Bush did not produce as a hitter in the minors and this comeback was a last chance to prove himself in the majors. Due to his live right arm, the Rays decided to take a chance on Bush despite his past legal issues. While an organization is always going to be tempted by talent, character is also a factor in which players deserve contracts. That’s not to say the Rays completely ignored Bush’s past, but they also knew the risks involved in bringing a player with his history into the organization.
In the end, though, talent often wins out, and people you wouldn’t want marrying into your family continue to get chances as long as teams think they can help them win baseball games. Milton Bradley was known for his off the field issues, but played on eight different teams due to his baseball skills. Elijah Dukes was a more serious case, but still received multiple chances based on his potential. Delmon Young once threw a bat at an umpire, but the Rays stuck by him due to his prospect status – at least, until they realized he was not very good and traded him to Minnesota. More recently, Alex White was arrested for an “extreme DUI
Bush had already been trying to rehabilitate his image following a night club brawl in 2004 and an alleged assault in 2009. After washing out with the San Diego Padres, Bush, now 26-years-old, was attempting to comeback as a reliever with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Considering the severity of this incident, it doesn’t seem appropriate to bring up Bush’s baseball history. Unfortunately, it’s part of the reason he was still in the game. Bush did not produce as a hitter in the minors and this comeback was a last chance to prove himself in the majors. Due to his live right arm, the Rays decided to take a chance on Bush despite his past legal issues. While an organization is always going to be tempted by talent, character is also a factor in which players deserve contracts. That’s not to say the Rays completely ignored Bush’s past, but they also knew the risks involved in bringing a player with his history into the organization.
In the end, though, talent often wins out, and people you wouldn’t want marrying into your family continue to get chances as long as teams think they can help them win baseball games. Milton Bradley was known for his off the field issues, but played on eight different teams due to his baseball skills. Elijah Dukes was a more serious case, but still received multiple chances based on his potential. Delmon Young once threw a bat at an umpire, but the Rays stuck by him due to his prospect status – at least, until they realized he was not very good and traded him to Minnesota. More recently, Alex White was arrested for an “extreme DUI
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spoilers not working pro.
Hopefully Chipper can have an injury free season.
Hopefully Chipper can have an injury free season.
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spoilers not working pro.
Hopefully Chipper can have an injury free season.
Hopefully Chipper can have an injury free season.
dacomeup
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Chipper tore his meniscus while stretching.
How does that even happen?
dacomeup
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Chipper tore his meniscus while stretching.
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Ryan Madson back in Cincy having his arm looked at.. Not looking good.
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Ryan Madson back in Cincy having his arm looked at.. Not looking good.
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Tommy John...
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Tommy John...
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you burned bread bro...........
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you burned bread bro...........
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