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Good Lord, that was spectacular.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
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Good Lord, that was spectacular.
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Why the Phillies defense is so bad.
Deserving All-Star relievers.
Desperate Marlins.
Spoiler [+]
In the piece I wrote last week about Cliff Lee's struggles, I pointed out that a lot of his problems had to do with the Phillies' poor defense. This led one commenter to write:
"This article seems to forget that the Phillies are the team with the second least amount of errors in baseball. Poor defense? No. Defensive runs saved is a very flawed statistic."
The commenter is correct about the errors. The Philadelphia Phillies have made the third-fewest errors and have the highest fielding percentage in the baseball this season. By this logic, you might be fooled into thinking they're a great defensive team behind their superb pitching staff. But there is so much more to good defense than not making errors.
Errors provide useful information. When the official scorer assigns an error, we know that the fielder has gotten to the ball and either bobbled it, made a bad throw or committed some other miscue on a play that would normally be made successfully. The fielder screwed up, and he should be penalized for it; hence, he is charged with an error.
However, there are well-documented issues with using errors to evaluate fielders. For starters, there is often room for disagreement in the official scorer's ruling. Additionally, errors don't appropriately account for a fielder's range; if a shortstop is a step slow and doesn't reach a ground ball through the hole, he's not likely to be charged with an error, although other shortstops might have made the play.
Many analysts have attempted to accommodate these concerns. For example, Bill James decided to focus on the plays a fielder does make, rather than the plays he does not. Along these lines, he proposed the original range factor formula, which simply counts the number of assists and putouts per nine innings. Players with great range tend to reach more balls and have a higher range factor than others at their position.
While an improvement over Fielding Percentage, range factor still has a few complicating factors. For instance, a shortstop behind a ground-ball pitcher would have more opportunities than a fly-ball pitcher.
Phillies pitchers have induced a ton of ground balls this year. The league batting average on ground balls is .227. The Phillies have allowed a .248 average on grounders, the third-worst in baseball behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. This is a strong indication that Philadelphia infielders are not getting to that many ground balls, and you can't make an error on a ball you don't get to.
Additionally, ground balls are not all equal. Obviously, a hard-hit ball in the hole is a much tougher play than a routine three-hopper right at the shortstop. Additionally, as discussed recently in an article about batting average on balls in play, ground-ball specialists like Trevor Cahill tend to allow a lower batting average than other pitchers on their ground balls. This unevenness is not guaranteed to even out over the course of the season.
That's why Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts plot the location and velocity (hard, medium or soft) of each ground ball over the course of the season. With this information, we can approximate the difficulty of each ball in play (not just ground balls) for each fielder. That's exactly what John Dewan did with the plus/minus system.
Given the location and velocity of the ground balls allowed by the Phillies' pitching staff year, a lineup of average infielders would have made about 627 plays. The Phillies' infield actually made 587 plays, a 40-play difference. Converting 40 outs into hits makes a difference of about 30 runs. Despite their low error total, the Phillies' infield has cost the pitching staff about 40 outs and 30 runs this year. Check out the chart below, which shows the teams with the biggest gap between their infield's ranking in fielding percentage and plus/minus.
[h4]Major differences[/h4]
The following five teams have the largest discrepancy between their infield rankings for fielding percentage and defensive runs saved. The Phillies come up first in one and last in the other.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Fielding Pct[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Plus/Minus[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]0.988[/td][td]1[/td][td]-40[/td][td]30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]27[/td][td]12[/td][td]3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]28[/td][td]-14[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]0.987[/td][td]6[/td][td]-24[/td][td]21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]0.986[/td][td]8[/td][td]-22[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phillies are an excellent team that will very likely win the National League East again. But that doesn't mean they have a good infield defense. In fact, despite what fielding percentage might tell you, they have a poor one.
"This article seems to forget that the Phillies are the team with the second least amount of errors in baseball. Poor defense? No. Defensive runs saved is a very flawed statistic."
The commenter is correct about the errors. The Philadelphia Phillies have made the third-fewest errors and have the highest fielding percentage in the baseball this season. By this logic, you might be fooled into thinking they're a great defensive team behind their superb pitching staff. But there is so much more to good defense than not making errors.
Errors provide useful information. When the official scorer assigns an error, we know that the fielder has gotten to the ball and either bobbled it, made a bad throw or committed some other miscue on a play that would normally be made successfully. The fielder screwed up, and he should be penalized for it; hence, he is charged with an error.
However, there are well-documented issues with using errors to evaluate fielders. For starters, there is often room for disagreement in the official scorer's ruling. Additionally, errors don't appropriately account for a fielder's range; if a shortstop is a step slow and doesn't reach a ground ball through the hole, he's not likely to be charged with an error, although other shortstops might have made the play.
Many analysts have attempted to accommodate these concerns. For example, Bill James decided to focus on the plays a fielder does make, rather than the plays he does not. Along these lines, he proposed the original range factor formula, which simply counts the number of assists and putouts per nine innings. Players with great range tend to reach more balls and have a higher range factor than others at their position.
While an improvement over Fielding Percentage, range factor still has a few complicating factors. For instance, a shortstop behind a ground-ball pitcher would have more opportunities than a fly-ball pitcher.
Phillies pitchers have induced a ton of ground balls this year. The league batting average on ground balls is .227. The Phillies have allowed a .248 average on grounders, the third-worst in baseball behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. This is a strong indication that Philadelphia infielders are not getting to that many ground balls, and you can't make an error on a ball you don't get to.
Additionally, ground balls are not all equal. Obviously, a hard-hit ball in the hole is a much tougher play than a routine three-hopper right at the shortstop. Additionally, as discussed recently in an article about batting average on balls in play, ground-ball specialists like Trevor Cahill tend to allow a lower batting average than other pitchers on their ground balls. This unevenness is not guaranteed to even out over the course of the season.
That's why Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts plot the location and velocity (hard, medium or soft) of each ground ball over the course of the season. With this information, we can approximate the difficulty of each ball in play (not just ground balls) for each fielder. That's exactly what John Dewan did with the plus/minus system.
Given the location and velocity of the ground balls allowed by the Phillies' pitching staff year, a lineup of average infielders would have made about 627 plays. The Phillies' infield actually made 587 plays, a 40-play difference. Converting 40 outs into hits makes a difference of about 30 runs. Despite their low error total, the Phillies' infield has cost the pitching staff about 40 outs and 30 runs this year. Check out the chart below, which shows the teams with the biggest gap between their infield's ranking in fielding percentage and plus/minus.
[h4]Major differences[/h4]
The following five teams have the largest discrepancy between their infield rankings for fielding percentage and defensive runs saved. The Phillies come up first in one and last in the other.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Fielding Pct[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Plus/Minus[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]0.988[/td][td]1[/td][td]-40[/td][td]30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]27[/td][td]12[/td][td]3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]28[/td][td]-14[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]0.987[/td][td]6[/td][td]-24[/td][td]21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]0.986[/td][td]8[/td][td]-22[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phillies are an excellent team that will very likely win the National League East again. But that doesn't mean they have a good infield defense. In fact, despite what fielding percentage might tell you, they have a poor one.
Deserving All-Star relievers.
Spoiler [+]
If the American League has a lead in the ninth inning of the All-Star Game next month, you can be pretty confident that Mariano Rivera will be coming out of the bullpen to get the last three outs. Rivera has become a staple at the event, making the team in 11 of his 16 career seasons, and is pitching well enough this year to justify yet another selection.
However, if the managers and players select the most worthy candidates to fill the other spots dedicated to relief pitchers, Rivera might be the only guy you recognize in that bullpen. If 2010 was the year of the pitcher, 2011 is the year of the unknown reliever. Let's look at four nearly anonymous bullpen arms who have pitched well enough to earn a spot at the Midsummer Classic.
David Pauley, RHP, Seattle Mariners
You could win a lot of bar bets by asking your friends which pitcher leads all American League relievers in both ERA (1.14) and innings pitched (39 1/3). Unless your friends are nerdy Mariners fans, odds are pretty good they won't guess that Pauley is the guy pulling off that trick at the moment. By dramatically cutting his walk rate and inducing a lot of ground balls, Pauley has developed into a solid late-innings option for Eric Wedge after beginning the year penciled into the long-relief role.
Hardly a typical flamethrower, he has used his excellent changeup to keep hitters off balance and has generated ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. He's almost certainly not going to keep pitching as well as he has so far, but for the first several months of the 2011 season, he's been as effective as any reliever in baseball.
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Teammate Jonny Venters has overshadowed almost every other reliever in baseball this year, but O'Flaherty is quietly becoming a vital member of the Braves' bullpen as well. His slider has always allowed him to neutralize left-handed batters, but by relying more heavily on a fastball (70.5 percent of his pitches this year) that he's learned how to command down in the zone, he's become more than just a specialist.
Among left-handed relievers in the NL, only Venters has faced more batters. He might not have the same jaw-dropping stuff, but O'Flaherty has given Fredi Gonzalez a second left-hander who can go full innings while keeping runs off the board, as his 1.38 ERA indicates. That flexibility has allowed the Braves to save George Sherrill for simple left-on-left matchups, giving Atlanta a significant edge in games that come down to a battle of the bullpens. While Venters is a near-lock to represent the National League, O'Flaherty deserves to make the trip as well.
Fernando Salas, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
At FanGraphs, we have two related metrics that help track how well a reliever has done at preserving leads in critical situations -- shutdowns and meltdowns. Cardinals fans who endured the first few weeks of the season will not be surprised to learn that Ryan Franklin is among the league leaders in meltdowns, and his problems led to an emergency search for a new closer in St. Louis. After experimenting with hard-throwers Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez, the Cardinals found a gem in Fernando Salas.
Despite beginning the season in Triple-A, Salas' 15 shutdowns against just two meltdowns gives him one of the best ratios of any reliever in baseball. He's mixed all three of his pitches well, and most importantly, he's kept the ball in the yard; after giving up four home runs in a comparable amount of innings last year, the home run he allowed to Danny Espinosa last night was the first one he has given up all season. Combined with 3.44 strikeouts for every walk, it's easy to see why Salas has been able to be the savior of the Cardinals' bullpen this season.
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals
With Ryan Zimmerman spending a large portion of the first half of the season on the disabled list, there isn't an obvious All-Star representative for the Nationals, though the rules state that they have to send at least one player. However, Clippard wouldn't just be a token choice to fulfill the requirement -- he's actually pitched like an All-Star.
With 51 strikeouts, he's tied with Craig Kimbrel for the National League lead among relievers, but unlike Kimbrel, Clippard does it with soft stuff: 28 percent of his pitches have been changeups this year, and he's not afraid to use it in any count. He throws it at least 20 percent of the time in every count except 3-0 and 0-2. By featuring his changeup so regularly, he's been able to rack up the strikeouts without a power fastball or a big breaking ball. The whiffs have kept his ERA under 2.00 despite being one of the most frequently used pitchers in the National League, and because of his success, the Nationals have a deserving candidate for the All-Star roster, even with their highest-profile players spending time on the DL.
However, if the managers and players select the most worthy candidates to fill the other spots dedicated to relief pitchers, Rivera might be the only guy you recognize in that bullpen. If 2010 was the year of the pitcher, 2011 is the year of the unknown reliever. Let's look at four nearly anonymous bullpen arms who have pitched well enough to earn a spot at the Midsummer Classic.
David Pauley, RHP, Seattle Mariners
You could win a lot of bar bets by asking your friends which pitcher leads all American League relievers in both ERA (1.14) and innings pitched (39 1/3). Unless your friends are nerdy Mariners fans, odds are pretty good they won't guess that Pauley is the guy pulling off that trick at the moment. By dramatically cutting his walk rate and inducing a lot of ground balls, Pauley has developed into a solid late-innings option for Eric Wedge after beginning the year penciled into the long-relief role.
Hardly a typical flamethrower, he has used his excellent changeup to keep hitters off balance and has generated ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. He's almost certainly not going to keep pitching as well as he has so far, but for the first several months of the 2011 season, he's been as effective as any reliever in baseball.
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Teammate Jonny Venters has overshadowed almost every other reliever in baseball this year, but O'Flaherty is quietly becoming a vital member of the Braves' bullpen as well. His slider has always allowed him to neutralize left-handed batters, but by relying more heavily on a fastball (70.5 percent of his pitches this year) that he's learned how to command down in the zone, he's become more than just a specialist.
Among left-handed relievers in the NL, only Venters has faced more batters. He might not have the same jaw-dropping stuff, but O'Flaherty has given Fredi Gonzalez a second left-hander who can go full innings while keeping runs off the board, as his 1.38 ERA indicates. That flexibility has allowed the Braves to save George Sherrill for simple left-on-left matchups, giving Atlanta a significant edge in games that come down to a battle of the bullpens. While Venters is a near-lock to represent the National League, O'Flaherty deserves to make the trip as well.
Fernando Salas, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
At FanGraphs, we have two related metrics that help track how well a reliever has done at preserving leads in critical situations -- shutdowns and meltdowns. Cardinals fans who endured the first few weeks of the season will not be surprised to learn that Ryan Franklin is among the league leaders in meltdowns, and his problems led to an emergency search for a new closer in St. Louis. After experimenting with hard-throwers Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez, the Cardinals found a gem in Fernando Salas.
Despite beginning the season in Triple-A, Salas' 15 shutdowns against just two meltdowns gives him one of the best ratios of any reliever in baseball. He's mixed all three of his pitches well, and most importantly, he's kept the ball in the yard; after giving up four home runs in a comparable amount of innings last year, the home run he allowed to Danny Espinosa last night was the first one he has given up all season. Combined with 3.44 strikeouts for every walk, it's easy to see why Salas has been able to be the savior of the Cardinals' bullpen this season.
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals
With Ryan Zimmerman spending a large portion of the first half of the season on the disabled list, there isn't an obvious All-Star representative for the Nationals, though the rules state that they have to send at least one player. However, Clippard wouldn't just be a token choice to fulfill the requirement -- he's actually pitched like an All-Star.
With 51 strikeouts, he's tied with Craig Kimbrel for the National League lead among relievers, but unlike Kimbrel, Clippard does it with soft stuff: 28 percent of his pitches have been changeups this year, and he's not afraid to use it in any count. He throws it at least 20 percent of the time in every count except 3-0 and 0-2. By featuring his changeup so regularly, he's been able to rack up the strikeouts without a power fastball or a big breaking ball. The whiffs have kept his ERA under 2.00 despite being one of the most frequently used pitchers in the National League, and because of his success, the Nationals have a deserving candidate for the All-Star roster, even with their highest-profile players spending time on the DL.
Desperate Marlins.
Spoiler [+]
Richard Nixon was president when Jack McKeon managed his first game in Major League Baseball during Watergate in 1973, and now, at 80 years old, sources indicate McKeon will become the second-oldest manager in history. The oldest manager ever, Connie Mack, owned the team.
Getty ImagesThey may be excited for a new park, but the Marlins look increasingly desperate.
Logic tells us that this won't work. Logic tells us that this is just the latest impetuosity of Jeffrey Loria, who runs his team very similar to how George Steinbrenner did in the mid-'80s minus the big checks. McKeon's life in baseball has been filled with successes, but as one player said Sunday, you wonder how McKeon will relate to young men who could be his great-grandchildren. This all seems a little crazy.
But we should keep in mind: Loria is in a desperate situation with a whole lot at stake. He has a new ballpark opening next year, and the Marlins want and need to ride some momentum into next spring. Instead, the Marlins are in an historic collapse, with one win in 19 June games; their signature star, Hanley Ramirez, is playing so badly that rival evaluators are beginning to ask the question of whether he will be the same again.
In hiring McKeon, Loria is playing a card that has worked for him before. The Marlins were in a very similar situation in 2003, a young and talented team seemingly drifting out of the race early in the season, then McKeon was hired and suddenly Florida started winning. By the end of the year, Loria was running around the bases at Yankee Stadium, giddily celebrating the Marlins' World Series victory over the Yankees.
Steinbrenner was incredibly superstitious, and when the team was playing badly or faced a big game, he would call Yogi Berra to throw out a game's first pitch, believing that this could change the mojo in favor of the Yankees. For Loria, McKeon has been a lucky charm, and Loria needs him now, even if he realizes that hiring McKeon doesn't represent a long-term plan.
From Elias: the oldest to manage a game in MLB history:
Connie Mack: 87 years, 283 days
Casey Stengel: 74, 359
Jack McKeon: 74, 313
Felipe Alou: 71, 142
Frank Robinson: 71, 31
Bringing back Jack McKeon isn't as crazy as it sounds, writes Mike Berardino.
Edwin Rodriguez shocked the Marlins with his resignation, write Ted Hutton and Juan Rodriguez. The Marlins' slide hasn't been his fault, writes Greg Stoda.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was injured and gave the St. Louis fans quite a scare, writes Bernie Miklasz. What we remember of injuries like his, on plays like this, is the worst: Cliff Floyd had his wrist shattered and his career altered, and Derrek Lee got hurt and never regained his power.
We don't know yet what exactly is wrong with Pujols, so it could be much less serious than Floyd's injury. But I was with a couple of players when they showed a replay of what happened to him, and simultaneously, they said the same thing: "Bottom hand." It was his left hand that was injured, the bottom hand in his swing, the more important hand to what he does.
There's nothing to do now but wait and see what the doctors learn about a player who has a lot at stake this year, as he barrels toward the free agency he wants to test after turning down a Cardinals offer this past winter.
• You can't stop the Mariners; you can only hope to contain them: Jason Vargas shut down the Phillies, and Seattle took two of three from the Phillies. Greg Halman helped Vargas.
• Phil Hughes had a very good first step, reaching 95 mph in his velocity. One of the Yankees' greatest questions about Hughes is how he can maintain his velocity throughout a start, and Hughes' work on Sunday was a really good sign. Hughes felt good, writes Kevin Kernan:
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The other day, the Marlins announced they had demoted Chris Coghlan to the minors. But sources say that in the aftermath of that decision, Coghlan told the Marlins that he has an injured knee, so he has been shifted to the disabled list.
2. The Indians fired their hitting coach, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. The Reds aren't ready to say what's next for Aroldis Chapman.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. A couple of Rangers were treated for dehydration.
2. The Dodgers placed catcher Rod Barajas on the disabled list.
3. Alex Rodriguez says he doesn't have a shoulder strain.
4. It looks as though Bruce Chen will be activated on Tuesday.
5. The Nationals placed Rick Ankiel on the disabled list.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. James Shields continued to make a case as a candidate to start the All-Star Game, dominating the Marlins. From Stats & Info: Tampa Bay starter James Shields made quick work of the Marlins, going 110 pitches, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just one unearned run to notch his fifth complete game already this season. Shields had five complete games in his previous five major league seasons combined.
In two interleague starts this season -- both against the Marlins -- Shields has 23 strikeouts and just one walk. He's among the current pitchers with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in interleague play:
Josh Beckett: 5.40
Felix Hernandez: 5.10
Zack Greinke: 4.48
James Shields: 4.14
Pitchers with five complete games by June 19 since 1998:
James Shields: '11
Roy Halladay: '10, '08, '05
Zack Greinke: '09
Bartolo Colon: '03, '98
Mark Mulder: '03
Randy Johnson: '00
Curt Schilling: '99 (6), '98 (7)
2. Justin Verlander stopped the bleeding for the Tigers. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Verlander shut down the Rockies:
• He finished hitters off: Verlander took 14 hitters to a two-strike count and didn't allow a hit or walk anyone. Only a hit-by-pitch kept him from retiring all 14 hitters. It was his first start this season in which he didn't allow a hit or walk a batter after going to two strikes.
• After throwing his changeup a season-high 32 percent of the time with two strikes during his past start, Verlander threw it a season-low 7 percent of the time on Sunday. Instead, he relied on his fastball and curveball more than usual. Eleven of his 13 outs with two strikes came on those two pitches, including four of his five strikeouts.
• Verlander induced contact more often than usual with two strikes. Rockies hitters put eight of their 13 swings in play with two strikes, the highest percentage (61.5) against Verlander in any of his starts the past three seasons. Only one of those eight balls in play left the infield.
3. The Astros didn't lend any support for Bud Norris.
4. The Braves salvaged the final game of their series against Texas, David O'Brien writes, but they have to start hitting, writes Mark Bradley.
5. Alexi Ogando lost his second straight start.
6. Hiroki Kuroda threw well and got some unexpected help from Dioner Navarro.
7. Landon Powell finished off the Giants, writes John Shea. Trevor Cahill just threw the ball.
8. Cord Phelps was The Man for the Indians.
9. Miguel Cairo rescued the Reds, John Fay writes.
10. The Rockies were dominated.
11. Nick Swisher made the Cubs pay for a decision, Ben Shpigel writes.
12. Jon Niese stumbled against the Angels.
13. The Padres were error-prone and got swept by the Twins -- and now they head into Boston. This feels like a boxing match between a heavyweight and a flyweight, considering the respective lineups.
14. The Red Sox put up a lot of runs again in blowing out Milwaukee. Adrian Gonzalez posted hit No. 1,000.
15. The Twins seemingly never lose these days, and on Sunday, they were led by unheralded players. Drew Butera found the perfect Father's Day gift, writes Jim Souhan.
16. Washington's winning streak ended.
Getty ImagesThey may be excited for a new park, but the Marlins look increasingly desperate.
Logic tells us that this won't work. Logic tells us that this is just the latest impetuosity of Jeffrey Loria, who runs his team very similar to how George Steinbrenner did in the mid-'80s minus the big checks. McKeon's life in baseball has been filled with successes, but as one player said Sunday, you wonder how McKeon will relate to young men who could be his great-grandchildren. This all seems a little crazy.
But we should keep in mind: Loria is in a desperate situation with a whole lot at stake. He has a new ballpark opening next year, and the Marlins want and need to ride some momentum into next spring. Instead, the Marlins are in an historic collapse, with one win in 19 June games; their signature star, Hanley Ramirez, is playing so badly that rival evaluators are beginning to ask the question of whether he will be the same again.
In hiring McKeon, Loria is playing a card that has worked for him before. The Marlins were in a very similar situation in 2003, a young and talented team seemingly drifting out of the race early in the season, then McKeon was hired and suddenly Florida started winning. By the end of the year, Loria was running around the bases at Yankee Stadium, giddily celebrating the Marlins' World Series victory over the Yankees.
Steinbrenner was incredibly superstitious, and when the team was playing badly or faced a big game, he would call Yogi Berra to throw out a game's first pitch, believing that this could change the mojo in favor of the Yankees. For Loria, McKeon has been a lucky charm, and Loria needs him now, even if he realizes that hiring McKeon doesn't represent a long-term plan.
From Elias: the oldest to manage a game in MLB history:
Connie Mack: 87 years, 283 days
Casey Stengel: 74, 359
Jack McKeon: 74, 313
Felipe Alou: 71, 142
Frank Robinson: 71, 31
Bringing back Jack McKeon isn't as crazy as it sounds, writes Mike Berardino.
Edwin Rodriguez shocked the Marlins with his resignation, write Ted Hutton and Juan Rodriguez. The Marlins' slide hasn't been his fault, writes Greg Stoda.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was injured and gave the St. Louis fans quite a scare, writes Bernie Miklasz. What we remember of injuries like his, on plays like this, is the worst: Cliff Floyd had his wrist shattered and his career altered, and Derrek Lee got hurt and never regained his power.
We don't know yet what exactly is wrong with Pujols, so it could be much less serious than Floyd's injury. But I was with a couple of players when they showed a replay of what happened to him, and simultaneously, they said the same thing: "Bottom hand." It was his left hand that was injured, the bottom hand in his swing, the more important hand to what he does.
There's nothing to do now but wait and see what the doctors learn about a player who has a lot at stake this year, as he barrels toward the free agency he wants to test after turning down a Cardinals offer this past winter.
• You can't stop the Mariners; you can only hope to contain them: Jason Vargas shut down the Phillies, and Seattle took two of three from the Phillies. Greg Halman helped Vargas.
• Phil Hughes had a very good first step, reaching 95 mph in his velocity. One of the Yankees' greatest questions about Hughes is how he can maintain his velocity throughout a start, and Hughes' work on Sunday was a really good sign. Hughes felt good, writes Kevin Kernan:
- Hughes, wearing No. 53 instead of his usual 65, hit 95 mph on the radar gun early and was sitting from 90-93 the first three innings. His velocity dropped as low as 87 in the final inning and a third. Hughes has to maintain velocity, but that's why they are called rehab starts.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The other day, the Marlins announced they had demoted Chris Coghlan to the minors. But sources say that in the aftermath of that decision, Coghlan told the Marlins that he has an injured knee, so he has been shifted to the disabled list.
2. The Indians fired their hitting coach, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. The Reds aren't ready to say what's next for Aroldis Chapman.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. A couple of Rangers were treated for dehydration.
2. The Dodgers placed catcher Rod Barajas on the disabled list.
3. Alex Rodriguez says he doesn't have a shoulder strain.
4. It looks as though Bruce Chen will be activated on Tuesday.
5. The Nationals placed Rick Ankiel on the disabled list.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. James Shields continued to make a case as a candidate to start the All-Star Game, dominating the Marlins. From Stats & Info: Tampa Bay starter James Shields made quick work of the Marlins, going 110 pitches, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just one unearned run to notch his fifth complete game already this season. Shields had five complete games in his previous five major league seasons combined.
In two interleague starts this season -- both against the Marlins -- Shields has 23 strikeouts and just one walk. He's among the current pitchers with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in interleague play:
Josh Beckett: 5.40
Felix Hernandez: 5.10
Zack Greinke: 4.48
James Shields: 4.14
Pitchers with five complete games by June 19 since 1998:
James Shields: '11
Roy Halladay: '10, '08, '05
Zack Greinke: '09
Bartolo Colon: '03, '98
Mark Mulder: '03
Randy Johnson: '00
Curt Schilling: '99 (6), '98 (7)
2. Justin Verlander stopped the bleeding for the Tigers. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Verlander shut down the Rockies:
• He finished hitters off: Verlander took 14 hitters to a two-strike count and didn't allow a hit or walk anyone. Only a hit-by-pitch kept him from retiring all 14 hitters. It was his first start this season in which he didn't allow a hit or walk a batter after going to two strikes.
• After throwing his changeup a season-high 32 percent of the time with two strikes during his past start, Verlander threw it a season-low 7 percent of the time on Sunday. Instead, he relied on his fastball and curveball more than usual. Eleven of his 13 outs with two strikes came on those two pitches, including four of his five strikeouts.
• Verlander induced contact more often than usual with two strikes. Rockies hitters put eight of their 13 swings in play with two strikes, the highest percentage (61.5) against Verlander in any of his starts the past three seasons. Only one of those eight balls in play left the infield.
3. The Astros didn't lend any support for Bud Norris.
4. The Braves salvaged the final game of their series against Texas, David O'Brien writes, but they have to start hitting, writes Mark Bradley.
5. Alexi Ogando lost his second straight start.
6. Hiroki Kuroda threw well and got some unexpected help from Dioner Navarro.
7. Landon Powell finished off the Giants, writes John Shea. Trevor Cahill just threw the ball.
8. Cord Phelps was The Man for the Indians.
9. Miguel Cairo rescued the Reds, John Fay writes.
10. The Rockies were dominated.
11. Nick Swisher made the Cubs pay for a decision, Ben Shpigel writes.
12. Jon Niese stumbled against the Angels.
13. The Padres were error-prone and got swept by the Twins -- and now they head into Boston. This feels like a boxing match between a heavyweight and a flyweight, considering the respective lineups.
14. The Red Sox put up a lot of runs again in blowing out Milwaukee. Adrian Gonzalez posted hit No. 1,000.
15. The Twins seemingly never lose these days, and on Sunday, they were led by unheralded players. Drew Butera found the perfect Father's Day gift, writes Jim Souhan.
16. Washington's winning streak ended.
Why the Phillies defense is so bad.
Deserving All-Star relievers.
Desperate Marlins.
Spoiler [+]
In the piece I wrote last week about Cliff Lee's struggles, I pointed out that a lot of his problems had to do with the Phillies' poor defense. This led one commenter to write:
"This article seems to forget that the Phillies are the team with the second least amount of errors in baseball. Poor defense? No. Defensive runs saved is a very flawed statistic."
The commenter is correct about the errors. The Philadelphia Phillies have made the third-fewest errors and have the highest fielding percentage in the baseball this season. By this logic, you might be fooled into thinking they're a great defensive team behind their superb pitching staff. But there is so much more to good defense than not making errors.
Errors provide useful information. When the official scorer assigns an error, we know that the fielder has gotten to the ball and either bobbled it, made a bad throw or committed some other miscue on a play that would normally be made successfully. The fielder screwed up, and he should be penalized for it; hence, he is charged with an error.
However, there are well-documented issues with using errors to evaluate fielders. For starters, there is often room for disagreement in the official scorer's ruling. Additionally, errors don't appropriately account for a fielder's range; if a shortstop is a step slow and doesn't reach a ground ball through the hole, he's not likely to be charged with an error, although other shortstops might have made the play.
Many analysts have attempted to accommodate these concerns. For example, Bill James decided to focus on the plays a fielder does make, rather than the plays he does not. Along these lines, he proposed the original range factor formula, which simply counts the number of assists and putouts per nine innings. Players with great range tend to reach more balls and have a higher range factor than others at their position.
While an improvement over Fielding Percentage, range factor still has a few complicating factors. For instance, a shortstop behind a ground-ball pitcher would have more opportunities than a fly-ball pitcher.
Phillies pitchers have induced a ton of ground balls this year. The league batting average on ground balls is .227. The Phillies have allowed a .248 average on grounders, the third-worst in baseball behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. This is a strong indication that Philadelphia infielders are not getting to that many ground balls, and you can't make an error on a ball you don't get to.
Additionally, ground balls are not all equal. Obviously, a hard-hit ball in the hole is a much tougher play than a routine three-hopper right at the shortstop. Additionally, as discussed recently in an article about batting average on balls in play, ground-ball specialists like Trevor Cahill tend to allow a lower batting average than other pitchers on their ground balls. This unevenness is not guaranteed to even out over the course of the season.
That's why Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts plot the location and velocity (hard, medium or soft) of each ground ball over the course of the season. With this information, we can approximate the difficulty of each ball in play (not just ground balls) for each fielder. That's exactly what John Dewan did with the plus/minus system.
Given the location and velocity of the ground balls allowed by the Phillies' pitching staff year, a lineup of average infielders would have made about 627 plays. The Phillies' infield actually made 587 plays, a 40-play difference. Converting 40 outs into hits makes a difference of about 30 runs. Despite their low error total, the Phillies' infield has cost the pitching staff about 40 outs and 30 runs this year. Check out the chart below, which shows the teams with the biggest gap between their infield's ranking in fielding percentage and plus/minus.
[h4]Major differences[/h4]
The following five teams have the largest discrepancy between their infield rankings for fielding percentage and defensive runs saved. The Phillies come up first in one and last in the other.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Fielding Pct[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Plus/Minus[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]0.988[/td][td]1[/td][td]-40[/td][td]30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]27[/td][td]12[/td][td]3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]28[/td][td]-14[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]0.987[/td][td]6[/td][td]-24[/td][td]21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]0.986[/td][td]8[/td][td]-22[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phillies are an excellent team that will very likely win the National League East again. But that doesn't mean they have a good infield defense. In fact, despite what fielding percentage might tell you, they have a poor one.
"This article seems to forget that the Phillies are the team with the second least amount of errors in baseball. Poor defense? No. Defensive runs saved is a very flawed statistic."
The commenter is correct about the errors. The Philadelphia Phillies have made the third-fewest errors and have the highest fielding percentage in the baseball this season. By this logic, you might be fooled into thinking they're a great defensive team behind their superb pitching staff. But there is so much more to good defense than not making errors.
Errors provide useful information. When the official scorer assigns an error, we know that the fielder has gotten to the ball and either bobbled it, made a bad throw or committed some other miscue on a play that would normally be made successfully. The fielder screwed up, and he should be penalized for it; hence, he is charged with an error.
However, there are well-documented issues with using errors to evaluate fielders. For starters, there is often room for disagreement in the official scorer's ruling. Additionally, errors don't appropriately account for a fielder's range; if a shortstop is a step slow and doesn't reach a ground ball through the hole, he's not likely to be charged with an error, although other shortstops might have made the play.
Many analysts have attempted to accommodate these concerns. For example, Bill James decided to focus on the plays a fielder does make, rather than the plays he does not. Along these lines, he proposed the original range factor formula, which simply counts the number of assists and putouts per nine innings. Players with great range tend to reach more balls and have a higher range factor than others at their position.
While an improvement over Fielding Percentage, range factor still has a few complicating factors. For instance, a shortstop behind a ground-ball pitcher would have more opportunities than a fly-ball pitcher.
Phillies pitchers have induced a ton of ground balls this year. The league batting average on ground balls is .227. The Phillies have allowed a .248 average on grounders, the third-worst in baseball behind the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Chicago Cubs. This is a strong indication that Philadelphia infielders are not getting to that many ground balls, and you can't make an error on a ball you don't get to.
Additionally, ground balls are not all equal. Obviously, a hard-hit ball in the hole is a much tougher play than a routine three-hopper right at the shortstop. Additionally, as discussed recently in an article about batting average on balls in play, ground-ball specialists like Trevor Cahill tend to allow a lower batting average than other pitchers on their ground balls. This unevenness is not guaranteed to even out over the course of the season.
That's why Baseball Info Solutions' video scouts plot the location and velocity (hard, medium or soft) of each ground ball over the course of the season. With this information, we can approximate the difficulty of each ball in play (not just ground balls) for each fielder. That's exactly what John Dewan did with the plus/minus system.
Given the location and velocity of the ground balls allowed by the Phillies' pitching staff year, a lineup of average infielders would have made about 627 plays. The Phillies' infield actually made 587 plays, a 40-play difference. Converting 40 outs into hits makes a difference of about 30 runs. Despite their low error total, the Phillies' infield has cost the pitching staff about 40 outs and 30 runs this year. Check out the chart below, which shows the teams with the biggest gap between their infield's ranking in fielding percentage and plus/minus.
[h4]Major differences[/h4]
The following five teams have the largest discrepancy between their infield rankings for fielding percentage and defensive runs saved. The Phillies come up first in one and last in the other.
[table][tr][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]Fielding Pct[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][th=""]Plus/Minus[/th][th=""]Rank[/th][/tr][tr][td]Phillies[/td][td]0.988[/td][td]1[/td][td]-40[/td][td]30[/td][/tr][tr][td]Rangers[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]27[/td][td]12[/td][td]3[/td][/tr][tr][td]Athletics[/td][td]0.980[/td][td]28[/td][td]-14[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dodgers[/td][td]0.987[/td][td]6[/td][td]-24[/td][td]21[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mets[/td][td]0.986[/td][td]8[/td][td]-22[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]
The Phillies are an excellent team that will very likely win the National League East again. But that doesn't mean they have a good infield defense. In fact, despite what fielding percentage might tell you, they have a poor one.
Deserving All-Star relievers.
Spoiler [+]
If the American League has a lead in the ninth inning of the All-Star Game next month, you can be pretty confident that Mariano Rivera will be coming out of the bullpen to get the last three outs. Rivera has become a staple at the event, making the team in 11 of his 16 career seasons, and is pitching well enough this year to justify yet another selection.
However, if the managers and players select the most worthy candidates to fill the other spots dedicated to relief pitchers, Rivera might be the only guy you recognize in that bullpen. If 2010 was the year of the pitcher, 2011 is the year of the unknown reliever. Let's look at four nearly anonymous bullpen arms who have pitched well enough to earn a spot at the Midsummer Classic.
David Pauley, RHP, Seattle Mariners
You could win a lot of bar bets by asking your friends which pitcher leads all American League relievers in both ERA (1.14) and innings pitched (39 1/3). Unless your friends are nerdy Mariners fans, odds are pretty good they won't guess that Pauley is the guy pulling off that trick at the moment. By dramatically cutting his walk rate and inducing a lot of ground balls, Pauley has developed into a solid late-innings option for Eric Wedge after beginning the year penciled into the long-relief role.
Hardly a typical flamethrower, he has used his excellent changeup to keep hitters off balance and has generated ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. He's almost certainly not going to keep pitching as well as he has so far, but for the first several months of the 2011 season, he's been as effective as any reliever in baseball.
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Teammate Jonny Venters has overshadowed almost every other reliever in baseball this year, but O'Flaherty is quietly becoming a vital member of the Braves' bullpen as well. His slider has always allowed him to neutralize left-handed batters, but by relying more heavily on a fastball (70.5 percent of his pitches this year) that he's learned how to command down in the zone, he's become more than just a specialist.
Among left-handed relievers in the NL, only Venters has faced more batters. He might not have the same jaw-dropping stuff, but O'Flaherty has given Fredi Gonzalez a second left-hander who can go full innings while keeping runs off the board, as his 1.38 ERA indicates. That flexibility has allowed the Braves to save George Sherrill for simple left-on-left matchups, giving Atlanta a significant edge in games that come down to a battle of the bullpens. While Venters is a near-lock to represent the National League, O'Flaherty deserves to make the trip as well.
Fernando Salas, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
At FanGraphs, we have two related metrics that help track how well a reliever has done at preserving leads in critical situations -- shutdowns and meltdowns. Cardinals fans who endured the first few weeks of the season will not be surprised to learn that Ryan Franklin is among the league leaders in meltdowns, and his problems led to an emergency search for a new closer in St. Louis. After experimenting with hard-throwers Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez, the Cardinals found a gem in Fernando Salas.
Despite beginning the season in Triple-A, Salas' 15 shutdowns against just two meltdowns gives him one of the best ratios of any reliever in baseball. He's mixed all three of his pitches well, and most importantly, he's kept the ball in the yard; after giving up four home runs in a comparable amount of innings last year, the home run he allowed to Danny Espinosa last night was the first one he has given up all season. Combined with 3.44 strikeouts for every walk, it's easy to see why Salas has been able to be the savior of the Cardinals' bullpen this season.
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals
With Ryan Zimmerman spending a large portion of the first half of the season on the disabled list, there isn't an obvious All-Star representative for the Nationals, though the rules state that they have to send at least one player. However, Clippard wouldn't just be a token choice to fulfill the requirement -- he's actually pitched like an All-Star.
With 51 strikeouts, he's tied with Craig Kimbrel for the National League lead among relievers, but unlike Kimbrel, Clippard does it with soft stuff: 28 percent of his pitches have been changeups this year, and he's not afraid to use it in any count. He throws it at least 20 percent of the time in every count except 3-0 and 0-2. By featuring his changeup so regularly, he's been able to rack up the strikeouts without a power fastball or a big breaking ball. The whiffs have kept his ERA under 2.00 despite being one of the most frequently used pitchers in the National League, and because of his success, the Nationals have a deserving candidate for the All-Star roster, even with their highest-profile players spending time on the DL.
However, if the managers and players select the most worthy candidates to fill the other spots dedicated to relief pitchers, Rivera might be the only guy you recognize in that bullpen. If 2010 was the year of the pitcher, 2011 is the year of the unknown reliever. Let's look at four nearly anonymous bullpen arms who have pitched well enough to earn a spot at the Midsummer Classic.
David Pauley, RHP, Seattle Mariners
You could win a lot of bar bets by asking your friends which pitcher leads all American League relievers in both ERA (1.14) and innings pitched (39 1/3). Unless your friends are nerdy Mariners fans, odds are pretty good they won't guess that Pauley is the guy pulling off that trick at the moment. By dramatically cutting his walk rate and inducing a lot of ground balls, Pauley has developed into a solid late-innings option for Eric Wedge after beginning the year penciled into the long-relief role.
Hardly a typical flamethrower, he has used his excellent changeup to keep hitters off balance and has generated ground balls more than 50 percent of the time. He's almost certainly not going to keep pitching as well as he has so far, but for the first several months of the 2011 season, he's been as effective as any reliever in baseball.
Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Teammate Jonny Venters has overshadowed almost every other reliever in baseball this year, but O'Flaherty is quietly becoming a vital member of the Braves' bullpen as well. His slider has always allowed him to neutralize left-handed batters, but by relying more heavily on a fastball (70.5 percent of his pitches this year) that he's learned how to command down in the zone, he's become more than just a specialist.
Among left-handed relievers in the NL, only Venters has faced more batters. He might not have the same jaw-dropping stuff, but O'Flaherty has given Fredi Gonzalez a second left-hander who can go full innings while keeping runs off the board, as his 1.38 ERA indicates. That flexibility has allowed the Braves to save George Sherrill for simple left-on-left matchups, giving Atlanta a significant edge in games that come down to a battle of the bullpens. While Venters is a near-lock to represent the National League, O'Flaherty deserves to make the trip as well.
Fernando Salas, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
At FanGraphs, we have two related metrics that help track how well a reliever has done at preserving leads in critical situations -- shutdowns and meltdowns. Cardinals fans who endured the first few weeks of the season will not be surprised to learn that Ryan Franklin is among the league leaders in meltdowns, and his problems led to an emergency search for a new closer in St. Louis. After experimenting with hard-throwers Mitchell Boggs and Eduardo Sanchez, the Cardinals found a gem in Fernando Salas.
Despite beginning the season in Triple-A, Salas' 15 shutdowns against just two meltdowns gives him one of the best ratios of any reliever in baseball. He's mixed all three of his pitches well, and most importantly, he's kept the ball in the yard; after giving up four home runs in a comparable amount of innings last year, the home run he allowed to Danny Espinosa last night was the first one he has given up all season. Combined with 3.44 strikeouts for every walk, it's easy to see why Salas has been able to be the savior of the Cardinals' bullpen this season.
Tyler Clippard, RHP, Washington Nationals
With Ryan Zimmerman spending a large portion of the first half of the season on the disabled list, there isn't an obvious All-Star representative for the Nationals, though the rules state that they have to send at least one player. However, Clippard wouldn't just be a token choice to fulfill the requirement -- he's actually pitched like an All-Star.
With 51 strikeouts, he's tied with Craig Kimbrel for the National League lead among relievers, but unlike Kimbrel, Clippard does it with soft stuff: 28 percent of his pitches have been changeups this year, and he's not afraid to use it in any count. He throws it at least 20 percent of the time in every count except 3-0 and 0-2. By featuring his changeup so regularly, he's been able to rack up the strikeouts without a power fastball or a big breaking ball. The whiffs have kept his ERA under 2.00 despite being one of the most frequently used pitchers in the National League, and because of his success, the Nationals have a deserving candidate for the All-Star roster, even with their highest-profile players spending time on the DL.
Desperate Marlins.
Spoiler [+]
Richard Nixon was president when Jack McKeon managed his first game in Major League Baseball during Watergate in 1973, and now, at 80 years old, sources indicate McKeon will become the second-oldest manager in history. The oldest manager ever, Connie Mack, owned the team.
Getty ImagesThey may be excited for a new park, but the Marlins look increasingly desperate.
Logic tells us that this won't work. Logic tells us that this is just the latest impetuosity of Jeffrey Loria, who runs his team very similar to how George Steinbrenner did in the mid-'80s minus the big checks. McKeon's life in baseball has been filled with successes, but as one player said Sunday, you wonder how McKeon will relate to young men who could be his great-grandchildren. This all seems a little crazy.
But we should keep in mind: Loria is in a desperate situation with a whole lot at stake. He has a new ballpark opening next year, and the Marlins want and need to ride some momentum into next spring. Instead, the Marlins are in an historic collapse, with one win in 19 June games; their signature star, Hanley Ramirez, is playing so badly that rival evaluators are beginning to ask the question of whether he will be the same again.
In hiring McKeon, Loria is playing a card that has worked for him before. The Marlins were in a very similar situation in 2003, a young and talented team seemingly drifting out of the race early in the season, then McKeon was hired and suddenly Florida started winning. By the end of the year, Loria was running around the bases at Yankee Stadium, giddily celebrating the Marlins' World Series victory over the Yankees.
Steinbrenner was incredibly superstitious, and when the team was playing badly or faced a big game, he would call Yogi Berra to throw out a game's first pitch, believing that this could change the mojo in favor of the Yankees. For Loria, McKeon has been a lucky charm, and Loria needs him now, even if he realizes that hiring McKeon doesn't represent a long-term plan.
From Elias: the oldest to manage a game in MLB history:
Connie Mack: 87 years, 283 days
Casey Stengel: 74, 359
Jack McKeon: 74, 313
Felipe Alou: 71, 142
Frank Robinson: 71, 31
Bringing back Jack McKeon isn't as crazy as it sounds, writes Mike Berardino.
Edwin Rodriguez shocked the Marlins with his resignation, write Ted Hutton and Juan Rodriguez. The Marlins' slide hasn't been his fault, writes Greg Stoda.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was injured and gave the St. Louis fans quite a scare, writes Bernie Miklasz. What we remember of injuries like his, on plays like this, is the worst: Cliff Floyd had his wrist shattered and his career altered, and Derrek Lee got hurt and never regained his power.
We don't know yet what exactly is wrong with Pujols, so it could be much less serious than Floyd's injury. But I was with a couple of players when they showed a replay of what happened to him, and simultaneously, they said the same thing: "Bottom hand." It was his left hand that was injured, the bottom hand in his swing, the more important hand to what he does.
There's nothing to do now but wait and see what the doctors learn about a player who has a lot at stake this year, as he barrels toward the free agency he wants to test after turning down a Cardinals offer this past winter.
• You can't stop the Mariners; you can only hope to contain them: Jason Vargas shut down the Phillies, and Seattle took two of three from the Phillies. Greg Halman helped Vargas.
• Phil Hughes had a very good first step, reaching 95 mph in his velocity. One of the Yankees' greatest questions about Hughes is how he can maintain his velocity throughout a start, and Hughes' work on Sunday was a really good sign. Hughes felt good, writes Kevin Kernan:
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The other day, the Marlins announced they had demoted Chris Coghlan to the minors. But sources say that in the aftermath of that decision, Coghlan told the Marlins that he has an injured knee, so he has been shifted to the disabled list.
2. The Indians fired their hitting coach, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. The Reds aren't ready to say what's next for Aroldis Chapman.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. A couple of Rangers were treated for dehydration.
2. The Dodgers placed catcher Rod Barajas on the disabled list.
3. Alex Rodriguez says he doesn't have a shoulder strain.
4. It looks as though Bruce Chen will be activated on Tuesday.
5. The Nationals placed Rick Ankiel on the disabled list.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. James Shields continued to make a case as a candidate to start the All-Star Game, dominating the Marlins. From Stats & Info: Tampa Bay starter James Shields made quick work of the Marlins, going 110 pitches, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just one unearned run to notch his fifth complete game already this season. Shields had five complete games in his previous five major league seasons combined.
In two interleague starts this season -- both against the Marlins -- Shields has 23 strikeouts and just one walk. He's among the current pitchers with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in interleague play:
Josh Beckett: 5.40
Felix Hernandez: 5.10
Zack Greinke: 4.48
James Shields: 4.14
Pitchers with five complete games by June 19 since 1998:
James Shields: '11
Roy Halladay: '10, '08, '05
Zack Greinke: '09
Bartolo Colon: '03, '98
Mark Mulder: '03
Randy Johnson: '00
Curt Schilling: '99 (6), '98 (7)
2. Justin Verlander stopped the bleeding for the Tigers. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Verlander shut down the Rockies:
• He finished hitters off: Verlander took 14 hitters to a two-strike count and didn't allow a hit or walk anyone. Only a hit-by-pitch kept him from retiring all 14 hitters. It was his first start this season in which he didn't allow a hit or walk a batter after going to two strikes.
• After throwing his changeup a season-high 32 percent of the time with two strikes during his past start, Verlander threw it a season-low 7 percent of the time on Sunday. Instead, he relied on his fastball and curveball more than usual. Eleven of his 13 outs with two strikes came on those two pitches, including four of his five strikeouts.
• Verlander induced contact more often than usual with two strikes. Rockies hitters put eight of their 13 swings in play with two strikes, the highest percentage (61.5) against Verlander in any of his starts the past three seasons. Only one of those eight balls in play left the infield.
3. The Astros didn't lend any support for Bud Norris.
4. The Braves salvaged the final game of their series against Texas, David O'Brien writes, but they have to start hitting, writes Mark Bradley.
5. Alexi Ogando lost his second straight start.
6. Hiroki Kuroda threw well and got some unexpected help from Dioner Navarro.
7. Landon Powell finished off the Giants, writes John Shea. Trevor Cahill just threw the ball.
8. Cord Phelps was The Man for the Indians.
9. Miguel Cairo rescued the Reds, John Fay writes.
10. The Rockies were dominated.
11. Nick Swisher made the Cubs pay for a decision, Ben Shpigel writes.
12. Jon Niese stumbled against the Angels.
13. The Padres were error-prone and got swept by the Twins -- and now they head into Boston. This feels like a boxing match between a heavyweight and a flyweight, considering the respective lineups.
14. The Red Sox put up a lot of runs again in blowing out Milwaukee. Adrian Gonzalez posted hit No. 1,000.
15. The Twins seemingly never lose these days, and on Sunday, they were led by unheralded players. Drew Butera found the perfect Father's Day gift, writes Jim Souhan.
16. Washington's winning streak ended.
Getty ImagesThey may be excited for a new park, but the Marlins look increasingly desperate.
Logic tells us that this won't work. Logic tells us that this is just the latest impetuosity of Jeffrey Loria, who runs his team very similar to how George Steinbrenner did in the mid-'80s minus the big checks. McKeon's life in baseball has been filled with successes, but as one player said Sunday, you wonder how McKeon will relate to young men who could be his great-grandchildren. This all seems a little crazy.
But we should keep in mind: Loria is in a desperate situation with a whole lot at stake. He has a new ballpark opening next year, and the Marlins want and need to ride some momentum into next spring. Instead, the Marlins are in an historic collapse, with one win in 19 June games; their signature star, Hanley Ramirez, is playing so badly that rival evaluators are beginning to ask the question of whether he will be the same again.
In hiring McKeon, Loria is playing a card that has worked for him before. The Marlins were in a very similar situation in 2003, a young and talented team seemingly drifting out of the race early in the season, then McKeon was hired and suddenly Florida started winning. By the end of the year, Loria was running around the bases at Yankee Stadium, giddily celebrating the Marlins' World Series victory over the Yankees.
Steinbrenner was incredibly superstitious, and when the team was playing badly or faced a big game, he would call Yogi Berra to throw out a game's first pitch, believing that this could change the mojo in favor of the Yankees. For Loria, McKeon has been a lucky charm, and Loria needs him now, even if he realizes that hiring McKeon doesn't represent a long-term plan.
From Elias: the oldest to manage a game in MLB history:
Connie Mack: 87 years, 283 days
Casey Stengel: 74, 359
Jack McKeon: 74, 313
Felipe Alou: 71, 142
Frank Robinson: 71, 31
Bringing back Jack McKeon isn't as crazy as it sounds, writes Mike Berardino.
Edwin Rodriguez shocked the Marlins with his resignation, write Ted Hutton and Juan Rodriguez. The Marlins' slide hasn't been his fault, writes Greg Stoda.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Albert Pujols was injured and gave the St. Louis fans quite a scare, writes Bernie Miklasz. What we remember of injuries like his, on plays like this, is the worst: Cliff Floyd had his wrist shattered and his career altered, and Derrek Lee got hurt and never regained his power.
We don't know yet what exactly is wrong with Pujols, so it could be much less serious than Floyd's injury. But I was with a couple of players when they showed a replay of what happened to him, and simultaneously, they said the same thing: "Bottom hand." It was his left hand that was injured, the bottom hand in his swing, the more important hand to what he does.
There's nothing to do now but wait and see what the doctors learn about a player who has a lot at stake this year, as he barrels toward the free agency he wants to test after turning down a Cardinals offer this past winter.
• You can't stop the Mariners; you can only hope to contain them: Jason Vargas shut down the Phillies, and Seattle took two of three from the Phillies. Greg Halman helped Vargas.
• Phil Hughes had a very good first step, reaching 95 mph in his velocity. One of the Yankees' greatest questions about Hughes is how he can maintain his velocity throughout a start, and Hughes' work on Sunday was a really good sign. Hughes felt good, writes Kevin Kernan:
- Hughes, wearing No. 53 instead of his usual 65, hit 95 mph on the radar gun early and was sitting from 90-93 the first three innings. His velocity dropped as low as 87 in the final inning and a third. Hughes has to maintain velocity, but that's why they are called rehab starts.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The other day, the Marlins announced they had demoted Chris Coghlan to the minors. But sources say that in the aftermath of that decision, Coghlan told the Marlins that he has an injured knee, so he has been shifted to the disabled list.
2. The Indians fired their hitting coach, writes Paul Hoynes.
3. The Reds aren't ready to say what's next for Aroldis Chapman.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. A couple of Rangers were treated for dehydration.
2. The Dodgers placed catcher Rod Barajas on the disabled list.
3. Alex Rodriguez says he doesn't have a shoulder strain.
4. It looks as though Bruce Chen will be activated on Tuesday.
5. The Nationals placed Rick Ankiel on the disabled list.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. James Shields continued to make a case as a candidate to start the All-Star Game, dominating the Marlins. From Stats & Info: Tampa Bay starter James Shields made quick work of the Marlins, going 110 pitches, recording 10 strikeouts and allowing just one unearned run to notch his fifth complete game already this season. Shields had five complete games in his previous five major league seasons combined.
In two interleague starts this season -- both against the Marlins -- Shields has 23 strikeouts and just one walk. He's among the current pitchers with the best strikeout-to-walk ratio in interleague play:
Josh Beckett: 5.40
Felix Hernandez: 5.10
Zack Greinke: 4.48
James Shields: 4.14
Pitchers with five complete games by June 19 since 1998:
James Shields: '11
Roy Halladay: '10, '08, '05
Zack Greinke: '09
Bartolo Colon: '03, '98
Mark Mulder: '03
Randy Johnson: '00
Curt Schilling: '99 (6), '98 (7)
2. Justin Verlander stopped the bleeding for the Tigers. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Verlander shut down the Rockies:
• He finished hitters off: Verlander took 14 hitters to a two-strike count and didn't allow a hit or walk anyone. Only a hit-by-pitch kept him from retiring all 14 hitters. It was his first start this season in which he didn't allow a hit or walk a batter after going to two strikes.
• After throwing his changeup a season-high 32 percent of the time with two strikes during his past start, Verlander threw it a season-low 7 percent of the time on Sunday. Instead, he relied on his fastball and curveball more than usual. Eleven of his 13 outs with two strikes came on those two pitches, including four of his five strikeouts.
• Verlander induced contact more often than usual with two strikes. Rockies hitters put eight of their 13 swings in play with two strikes, the highest percentage (61.5) against Verlander in any of his starts the past three seasons. Only one of those eight balls in play left the infield.
3. The Astros didn't lend any support for Bud Norris.
4. The Braves salvaged the final game of their series against Texas, David O'Brien writes, but they have to start hitting, writes Mark Bradley.
5. Alexi Ogando lost his second straight start.
6. Hiroki Kuroda threw well and got some unexpected help from Dioner Navarro.
7. Landon Powell finished off the Giants, writes John Shea. Trevor Cahill just threw the ball.
8. Cord Phelps was The Man for the Indians.
9. Miguel Cairo rescued the Reds, John Fay writes.
10. The Rockies were dominated.
11. Nick Swisher made the Cubs pay for a decision, Ben Shpigel writes.
12. Jon Niese stumbled against the Angels.
13. The Padres were error-prone and got swept by the Twins -- and now they head into Boston. This feels like a boxing match between a heavyweight and a flyweight, considering the respective lineups.
14. The Red Sox put up a lot of runs again in blowing out Milwaukee. Adrian Gonzalez posted hit No. 1,000.
15. The Twins seemingly never lose these days, and on Sunday, they were led by unheralded players. Drew Butera found the perfect Father's Day gift, writes Jim Souhan.
16. Washington's winning streak ended.
- 10,371
- 653
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2011
Fractured forearm for Pujols. Out 4-6 weeks.
And
at no Indians relievers being on that list.
And
- 10,371
- 653
- Joined
- Jan 3, 2011
Fractured forearm for Pujols. Out 4-6 weeks.
And
at no Indians relievers being on that list.
And
- 3,486
- 93
- Joined
- Oct 16, 2006
Between this
and that father's day game we won yesterday and that epic Moneyball trailer, I came in here to say that the A's are NOT DONE. Watch out for us in the near future.
We've lost 8 STARTING PITCHERS to the DL, and its only June. We're at our very worst, and we're only 5 games back.
Optimism back on deck, its cookies.
We've lost 8 STARTING PITCHERS to the DL, and its only June. We're at our very worst, and we're only 5 games back.
Optimism back on deck, its cookies.
- 3,486
- 93
- Joined
- Oct 16, 2006
Between this
and that father's day game we won yesterday and that epic Moneyball trailer, I came in here to say that the A's are NOT DONE. Watch out for us in the near future.
We've lost 8 STARTING PITCHERS to the DL, and its only June. We're at our very worst, and we're only 5 games back.
Optimism back on deck, its cookies.
We've lost 8 STARTING PITCHERS to the DL, and its only June. We're at our very worst, and we're only 5 games back.
Optimism back on deck, its cookies.
New Price for Pujols?
Projecting post-injury Albert.
Bumgarner and his record.
Best offseason pick-ups.
Spoiler [+]
So now it appears that Albert Pujols will have about six to eight weeks toward the end of this season to demonstrate that his left wrist is healthy, to show that the primary lever in The Machine will be as powerful as ever. He'll have to show this not only to pitchers, who will pound him inside with fastballs, but also to prospective employers, who Pujols needs to drive up his market value and push the St. Louis Cardinals' bidding.
Getty ImagesWill Albert wince again during free agency?
It's not exactly clear what the Cardinals offered Pujols before he severed contract talks at the start of spring training, whether it was nine years, $189 million or 10 years and $210 million or eight years at $168 million. It was likely something in the range of $21 million a year, and he said no basically because he wants a higher average annual value in his contract.
But Pujols will have difficulty making that happen unless he hits after he comes back. There will be more pressure on Pujols to hit in the final weeks of this season than there has been on any prospective free agent in the history of baseball, some evaluators and executives agreed Monday. It's highly unlikely that any team would make the kind of investment offer that Pujols wants on spec; teams will want to see The Machine as an indestructible force in late August and September, turning on inside fastballs and dismissing them over fences.
"He's a power guy," said one longtime NL evaluator. "This could be a $50 million injury. Maybe more."
What executives and scouts know is it took Cliff Floyd years to regain his power after suffering an injury on a similar play -- reaching into a runner with his glove hand, as a first baseman, and having his hand mashed back into his arm. Floyd never played first base again.
"He went from being potentially a great player to being a pretty good player the rest of his career," said one scout.
The same happened to Derrek Lee, and some evaluators think it was a turning point in his career. "It sapped the finish in his swing," said the same scout.
"Albert's hand-eye coordination is so good that he will still be able to hit when he comes back. The question is, will he hit with power? Will he drive the ball?
"And he will be busted immediately when he comes back. Big-time. If I'm pitching to him and I know he has a bad wrist, I'm going to pound him inside with fastballs until he shows he can hit that pitch. If he doesn't, that's a problem."
I asked some rival evaluators for their take on whether Pujols will be under pressure to perform at the end of this year, and whether the injury has a chance to have a major impact on his free agency.
From a longtime NL executive: "I think the final two months will be critical for Pujols. If his power is compromised, it will be difficult from a scouting and medical perspective to determine if his power will return. I do think wrist injuries can be career-altering. His uneven start [by Pujols' standards] and the monster season by [Prince] Fielder will also complicate his market. In addition, the long [six-plus years] and monstrous [$100m+] contracts often do more harm than good.
"That being said, he is still Albert Pujols ... and everyone is looking for offense in the new pitching-dominated reality. His chances of surpassing $250 million seem remote. More likely, he will end up in the $150m-$200m range."
From a longtime AL evaluator: "Albert Pujols is the Lou Gehrig of our time in terms of durability and production. How others have done after similar injuries is a guide, but not an absolute to determine his future effectiveness. King Albert is the best player in baseball in the prime of his illustrious career. Ultimately he'll get paid handsomely.
"The fact that the two superpowers have Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira playing Albert's primary position will affect his market more than his wrist. Plus the other king -- Miguel Cabrera -- eliminates the Tigers from the bidding as well. Just not a lot of teams have the wiggle room to pay Albert what he's worth ultimately and still field a successful team. I'm a fan of Alex Rodriguez but his contract will ultimately be an albatross that the Yankees will regret. Albert Pujols has earned the right to explore free agency and get market value. However, in this case what he means to the Cardinals and how special that venue is to Albert should inevitably allow both sides to make a deal that works for both sides. It's similar, but probably more lucrative than what the Twins were able to accomplish with Joe Mauer.
"Cliff Floyd's catastrophic injury to his wrist while playing first base didn't affect his production for the bulk of his career (although it gave him a phobia for the rest of his career about playing that particular position). Unfortunately, Cliff suffered a malady of injuries during his long, productive, powerful career. Subsequently, to single one particular injury out would not be correct. Derrek Lee is entering the twilight of his career in regards to age. Hopefully he captures a renaissance at an advanced age and becomes productive again. Ultimately, on the wrong side of 35 there are no guarantees whether he previously hurt his wrist or not."
From an AL evaluator: "It's going to be tough. If it's an issue of the ligaments in particular in the wrist, the strength of them, it could be a year before he's back to normal; in those cases it's typically surgery that I worry about and would give the hitter an extended period of time before I'd expect him to return to his normal production level.
"In this case if it's a break of the forearm and the strength of the wrist itself isn't compromised too much, I would say he'd have a pretty decent shot to return to full strength pretty quickly when he's healed -- but who knows. Either way you cut it, it's not good. I don't think that ultimately it will cost Pujols much this offseason, his body of work is so extensive and so outstanding that as long as he proves he's healthy, even if he doesn't perform up to his standards, he's still going to break the bank."
From an NL evaluator: "There's no doubt in my mind that Orlando Hudson, Floyd and Lee were not the same players after their wrist injuries. All three, in their primes, were very good players capable of making All-Star teams and maybe just short of being franchise-type players. The difference for me is that Pujols is beyond a franchise player and may be the best hitter, in terms of production and performance, to come along since Ted Williams. Put another way, he's a freak and freaks don't respond the way very good players respond. Nothing Pujols has done has been similar to any players from this era, so trying to compare him to others with similar injuries is difficult.
"In terms of the corollary question, I have no doubt Floyd and Lee were affected, as hitters, after their wrist injuries. They lost bat speed and were unable to generate the same power before the injuries. The other unspoken factor with both players is that they were big guys who slowed down as they aged; if the wrist injury had occurred closer to age 25 than age 35 the script may have been different for both players. However, there is no doubt it had a profound effect on both players' careers."
The Cardinals will now search internally for a way to replace Pujols in the lineup, and it isn't necessarily going to be Lance Berkman who steps in at first base. Bryan Burwell asks the question: Can the Cardinals win without Pujols?
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jack McKeon's first order of business was to bench Hanley Ramirez, who showed up late for the first meeting that McKeon oversaw.
It's an interesting decision, because given Ramirez's personality, he could either go into an emotional hole, or maybe it lights a fire under him. Maybe they have nothing to lose, because he's not hitting, anyway. McKeon sent a message immediately, writes Clark Spencer.
McKeon's return helped lighten the mood, writes Mike Berardino. McKeon made a case for himself, as Joe Capozzi writes.
The Marlins lost again; that's 11 straight, and counting.
• In a related story: Ozzie Guillen might bolt the White Sox if he doesn't feel wanted, writes Joe Cowley, who reports that Guillen had a meeting with Jerry Reinsdorf and didn't necessarily like what he was told.
Guillen lives in Miami, of course, in the offseason and has been connected with the Marlins' job in the past.
Some rival executives talked about this potential matchup -- of the impetuous Guillen, who always says exactly what he thinks, and the impetuous Jeffrey Loria, who has had six managers in nine years. "Ozzie would be fired 20 different times by the end of spring training," said one executive.
• Paul Konerko is the yin to Adrian Gonzalez's yang in the early MVP talk in the American League, and he had another nice day on Monday, mashing a three-run homer.
Konerko's numbers, from ESPN Stats & Information: Konerko's home run Monday was his 20th of the season. He passed Frank Thomas for the most 20-home run seasons White Sox history. The most in Sox history:
Paul Konerko: 12
Frank Thomas: 11
Harold Baines: 7
6 Players: 5
With his 385th homer, Konerko passed a White Sox legend on the all-time list. Baines finished his career with 384.
• As expected, Major League Baseball rejected the proposed TV deal that was at the heart of Frank McCourt's divorce settlement.
Now it's time to step aside and let the lawyers go at it, with bare-knuckle legal briefs.
Bud Selig said no because he doesn't trust McCourt, writes Bill Plaschke.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Giants need to create their own trade market.
2. Adrian Gonzalez is ready to move to the outfield for a couple of games to get David Ortiz in the lineup.
3. Phil Rogers makes the case for Rick Hahn to be GM of the White Sox, or the Cubs.
4. The slumping Lyle Overbay was benched.
5. The Blue Jays locked up Yunel Escobar to a two-year deal.
6. Dexter Fowler will continue to stay in Triple-A.
7. Justin Verlander's chances for pitching in the All-Star Game aren't helped by the way the Detroit rotation lines up.
8. Henry Schulman addresses the question of whether Bruce Bochy will fill the All-Star team with Giants.
9. Grant Balfour is looking like an All-Star, writes John Shea. Balfour is among the relievers expected to be available in the trade market, by the way; he'd be a great fit for the Rangers, if Oakland decides to pull up stakes on the 2011 season.
10. The next few weeks are key for Carlos Beltran and the Mets.
11. There is a disconnect between what Jose Reyes is asking for and what the Mets are willing to pay him, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Webb had another tough rehab start, failing to get through an inning.
2. Martin Prado is not ready to come back.
3. Jeremy Guthrie is getting the ball today.
4. Alberto Callaspo is ready to come back.
5. The Brewers got good news on Shaun Marcum.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Hudson did it all.
2. The Red Sox continue to kill the ball, and this time, Adrian Gonzalez's former teammates were the victims. Andrew Miller was solid, writes Bob Ryan. Along the way, the Red Sox had a big inning, as ESPN Stats & Info notes: In the bottom of the seventh, the Red Sox scored their most runs in an inning since 2009, scoring 10 in the seventh inning Monday against the Padres in a 14-5 win. Here's a look at some numbers from that inning:
42:29 - Time from first to last pitch
14 - Batters faced (5-8, 4 BB, 2 HBP)
4 - Padres pitchers used
68 - Pitches thrown (36 strikes, 32 balls)
10 - Runs scored
25 - Swings
1 - Miss
From Elias: The Red Sox scored 10-plus runs for the ninth time in the last 30 games. With the win, Boston moved into a tie with the idle Twins for the highest win percentage this month:
Red Sox: .824 (14-3)
Twins: .824 (14-3)
Yankees: .667 (12-6)
Nationals: .667 (12-6)
3. Carlos Zambrano was The Man for the Cubs.
4. Charlie Morton got pounded.
5. The Rockies rallied in a big way, as Jim Armstrong writes.
6. Ricky Romero called out the Toronto offense after he lost 2-0. This kind of thing almost never turns out well.
7. The Tigers had no answers against Clayton Kershaw. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Kershaw dominated:
• Kershaw went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw 21 sliders in the game, 16 of which came with two strikes. All 12 outs he got on his slider came with two strikes, including a career-best 10 strikeouts (all swinging).
• Tigers hitters couldn't lay off his slider. They swung at 17 of the 21 (81 percent) he threw, including 14 of 16 (87.5 percent) with two strikes. No Kershaw opponent has swung more often at his slider in his career (minimum three sliders).
• Kershaw had good command of his slider, keeping it primarily down in the zone. He threw 10 sliders down in the zone, all with two strikes. Tigers hitters swung at eight of them and missed on seven.
From Elias: Kershaw two-hit the Tigers in a 4-0 win, posting his third career shutout. Kershaw finished his shutout in style by striking out the side in the ninth. The last Dodgers starter to finish a shutout by striking out the side was Sandy Koufax in his perfect game on Sept. 9, 1965, against the Cubs.
8. The Reds didn't generate much offense Monday. Travis Wood recovered, but too late.
9. The Indians couldn't recover after a big inning went against them, as Dennis Manoloff writes.
10. The Angels piled on.
11. Jeff Niemann was back to his old form.
12. The Brewers' interleague woes continue.
13. Ivan Nova was poised, and he won again.
14. The Rangers opened their homestand in style.
Getty ImagesWill Albert wince again during free agency?
It's not exactly clear what the Cardinals offered Pujols before he severed contract talks at the start of spring training, whether it was nine years, $189 million or 10 years and $210 million or eight years at $168 million. It was likely something in the range of $21 million a year, and he said no basically because he wants a higher average annual value in his contract.
But Pujols will have difficulty making that happen unless he hits after he comes back. There will be more pressure on Pujols to hit in the final weeks of this season than there has been on any prospective free agent in the history of baseball, some evaluators and executives agreed Monday. It's highly unlikely that any team would make the kind of investment offer that Pujols wants on spec; teams will want to see The Machine as an indestructible force in late August and September, turning on inside fastballs and dismissing them over fences.
"He's a power guy," said one longtime NL evaluator. "This could be a $50 million injury. Maybe more."
What executives and scouts know is it took Cliff Floyd years to regain his power after suffering an injury on a similar play -- reaching into a runner with his glove hand, as a first baseman, and having his hand mashed back into his arm. Floyd never played first base again.
"He went from being potentially a great player to being a pretty good player the rest of his career," said one scout.
The same happened to Derrek Lee, and some evaluators think it was a turning point in his career. "It sapped the finish in his swing," said the same scout.
"Albert's hand-eye coordination is so good that he will still be able to hit when he comes back. The question is, will he hit with power? Will he drive the ball?
"And he will be busted immediately when he comes back. Big-time. If I'm pitching to him and I know he has a bad wrist, I'm going to pound him inside with fastballs until he shows he can hit that pitch. If he doesn't, that's a problem."
I asked some rival evaluators for their take on whether Pujols will be under pressure to perform at the end of this year, and whether the injury has a chance to have a major impact on his free agency.
From a longtime NL executive: "I think the final two months will be critical for Pujols. If his power is compromised, it will be difficult from a scouting and medical perspective to determine if his power will return. I do think wrist injuries can be career-altering. His uneven start [by Pujols' standards] and the monster season by [Prince] Fielder will also complicate his market. In addition, the long [six-plus years] and monstrous [$100m+] contracts often do more harm than good.
"That being said, he is still Albert Pujols ... and everyone is looking for offense in the new pitching-dominated reality. His chances of surpassing $250 million seem remote. More likely, he will end up in the $150m-$200m range."
From a longtime AL evaluator: "Albert Pujols is the Lou Gehrig of our time in terms of durability and production. How others have done after similar injuries is a guide, but not an absolute to determine his future effectiveness. King Albert is the best player in baseball in the prime of his illustrious career. Ultimately he'll get paid handsomely.
"The fact that the two superpowers have Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira playing Albert's primary position will affect his market more than his wrist. Plus the other king -- Miguel Cabrera -- eliminates the Tigers from the bidding as well. Just not a lot of teams have the wiggle room to pay Albert what he's worth ultimately and still field a successful team. I'm a fan of Alex Rodriguez but his contract will ultimately be an albatross that the Yankees will regret. Albert Pujols has earned the right to explore free agency and get market value. However, in this case what he means to the Cardinals and how special that venue is to Albert should inevitably allow both sides to make a deal that works for both sides. It's similar, but probably more lucrative than what the Twins were able to accomplish with Joe Mauer.
"Cliff Floyd's catastrophic injury to his wrist while playing first base didn't affect his production for the bulk of his career (although it gave him a phobia for the rest of his career about playing that particular position). Unfortunately, Cliff suffered a malady of injuries during his long, productive, powerful career. Subsequently, to single one particular injury out would not be correct. Derrek Lee is entering the twilight of his career in regards to age. Hopefully he captures a renaissance at an advanced age and becomes productive again. Ultimately, on the wrong side of 35 there are no guarantees whether he previously hurt his wrist or not."
From an AL evaluator: "It's going to be tough. If it's an issue of the ligaments in particular in the wrist, the strength of them, it could be a year before he's back to normal; in those cases it's typically surgery that I worry about and would give the hitter an extended period of time before I'd expect him to return to his normal production level.
"In this case if it's a break of the forearm and the strength of the wrist itself isn't compromised too much, I would say he'd have a pretty decent shot to return to full strength pretty quickly when he's healed -- but who knows. Either way you cut it, it's not good. I don't think that ultimately it will cost Pujols much this offseason, his body of work is so extensive and so outstanding that as long as he proves he's healthy, even if he doesn't perform up to his standards, he's still going to break the bank."
From an NL evaluator: "There's no doubt in my mind that Orlando Hudson, Floyd and Lee were not the same players after their wrist injuries. All three, in their primes, were very good players capable of making All-Star teams and maybe just short of being franchise-type players. The difference for me is that Pujols is beyond a franchise player and may be the best hitter, in terms of production and performance, to come along since Ted Williams. Put another way, he's a freak and freaks don't respond the way very good players respond. Nothing Pujols has done has been similar to any players from this era, so trying to compare him to others with similar injuries is difficult.
"In terms of the corollary question, I have no doubt Floyd and Lee were affected, as hitters, after their wrist injuries. They lost bat speed and were unable to generate the same power before the injuries. The other unspoken factor with both players is that they were big guys who slowed down as they aged; if the wrist injury had occurred closer to age 25 than age 35 the script may have been different for both players. However, there is no doubt it had a profound effect on both players' careers."
The Cardinals will now search internally for a way to replace Pujols in the lineup, and it isn't necessarily going to be Lance Berkman who steps in at first base. Bryan Burwell asks the question: Can the Cardinals win without Pujols?
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jack McKeon's first order of business was to bench Hanley Ramirez, who showed up late for the first meeting that McKeon oversaw.
It's an interesting decision, because given Ramirez's personality, he could either go into an emotional hole, or maybe it lights a fire under him. Maybe they have nothing to lose, because he's not hitting, anyway. McKeon sent a message immediately, writes Clark Spencer.
McKeon's return helped lighten the mood, writes Mike Berardino. McKeon made a case for himself, as Joe Capozzi writes.
The Marlins lost again; that's 11 straight, and counting.
• In a related story: Ozzie Guillen might bolt the White Sox if he doesn't feel wanted, writes Joe Cowley, who reports that Guillen had a meeting with Jerry Reinsdorf and didn't necessarily like what he was told.
Guillen lives in Miami, of course, in the offseason and has been connected with the Marlins' job in the past.
Some rival executives talked about this potential matchup -- of the impetuous Guillen, who always says exactly what he thinks, and the impetuous Jeffrey Loria, who has had six managers in nine years. "Ozzie would be fired 20 different times by the end of spring training," said one executive.
• Paul Konerko is the yin to Adrian Gonzalez's yang in the early MVP talk in the American League, and he had another nice day on Monday, mashing a three-run homer.
Konerko's numbers, from ESPN Stats & Information: Konerko's home run Monday was his 20th of the season. He passed Frank Thomas for the most 20-home run seasons White Sox history. The most in Sox history:
Paul Konerko: 12
Frank Thomas: 11
Harold Baines: 7
6 Players: 5
With his 385th homer, Konerko passed a White Sox legend on the all-time list. Baines finished his career with 384.
• As expected, Major League Baseball rejected the proposed TV deal that was at the heart of Frank McCourt's divorce settlement.
Now it's time to step aside and let the lawyers go at it, with bare-knuckle legal briefs.
Bud Selig said no because he doesn't trust McCourt, writes Bill Plaschke.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Giants need to create their own trade market.
2. Adrian Gonzalez is ready to move to the outfield for a couple of games to get David Ortiz in the lineup.
3. Phil Rogers makes the case for Rick Hahn to be GM of the White Sox, or the Cubs.
4. The slumping Lyle Overbay was benched.
5. The Blue Jays locked up Yunel Escobar to a two-year deal.
6. Dexter Fowler will continue to stay in Triple-A.
7. Justin Verlander's chances for pitching in the All-Star Game aren't helped by the way the Detroit rotation lines up.
8. Henry Schulman addresses the question of whether Bruce Bochy will fill the All-Star team with Giants.
9. Grant Balfour is looking like an All-Star, writes John Shea. Balfour is among the relievers expected to be available in the trade market, by the way; he'd be a great fit for the Rangers, if Oakland decides to pull up stakes on the 2011 season.
10. The next few weeks are key for Carlos Beltran and the Mets.
11. There is a disconnect between what Jose Reyes is asking for and what the Mets are willing to pay him, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Webb had another tough rehab start, failing to get through an inning.
2. Martin Prado is not ready to come back.
3. Jeremy Guthrie is getting the ball today.
4. Alberto Callaspo is ready to come back.
5. The Brewers got good news on Shaun Marcum.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Hudson did it all.
2. The Red Sox continue to kill the ball, and this time, Adrian Gonzalez's former teammates were the victims. Andrew Miller was solid, writes Bob Ryan. Along the way, the Red Sox had a big inning, as ESPN Stats & Info notes: In the bottom of the seventh, the Red Sox scored their most runs in an inning since 2009, scoring 10 in the seventh inning Monday against the Padres in a 14-5 win. Here's a look at some numbers from that inning:
42:29 - Time from first to last pitch
14 - Batters faced (5-8, 4 BB, 2 HBP)
4 - Padres pitchers used
68 - Pitches thrown (36 strikes, 32 balls)
10 - Runs scored
25 - Swings
1 - Miss
From Elias: The Red Sox scored 10-plus runs for the ninth time in the last 30 games. With the win, Boston moved into a tie with the idle Twins for the highest win percentage this month:
Red Sox: .824 (14-3)
Twins: .824 (14-3)
Yankees: .667 (12-6)
Nationals: .667 (12-6)
3. Carlos Zambrano was The Man for the Cubs.
4. Charlie Morton got pounded.
5. The Rockies rallied in a big way, as Jim Armstrong writes.
6. Ricky Romero called out the Toronto offense after he lost 2-0. This kind of thing almost never turns out well.
7. The Tigers had no answers against Clayton Kershaw. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Kershaw dominated:
• Kershaw went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw 21 sliders in the game, 16 of which came with two strikes. All 12 outs he got on his slider came with two strikes, including a career-best 10 strikeouts (all swinging).
• Tigers hitters couldn't lay off his slider. They swung at 17 of the 21 (81 percent) he threw, including 14 of 16 (87.5 percent) with two strikes. No Kershaw opponent has swung more often at his slider in his career (minimum three sliders).
• Kershaw had good command of his slider, keeping it primarily down in the zone. He threw 10 sliders down in the zone, all with two strikes. Tigers hitters swung at eight of them and missed on seven.
From Elias: Kershaw two-hit the Tigers in a 4-0 win, posting his third career shutout. Kershaw finished his shutout in style by striking out the side in the ninth. The last Dodgers starter to finish a shutout by striking out the side was Sandy Koufax in his perfect game on Sept. 9, 1965, against the Cubs.
8. The Reds didn't generate much offense Monday. Travis Wood recovered, but too late.
9. The Indians couldn't recover after a big inning went against them, as Dennis Manoloff writes.
10. The Angels piled on.
11. Jeff Niemann was back to his old form.
12. The Brewers' interleague woes continue.
13. Ivan Nova was poised, and he won again.
14. The Rangers opened their homestand in style.
Projecting post-injury Albert.
Spoiler [+]
The St. Louis Cardinals received a bit of unwelcome news this afternoon when it was revealed Albert Pujols will miss up to six weeks with a fractured forearm that was caused by a collision with Wilson Betemit of the Kansas City Royals.
Just how much should the wrist injury affect Pujols' expectations going forward? To try to get an answer for this, I consulted the injury database of Kyle Boddy at Driveline Baseball, which has detailed injury information going back about a decade. I asked the database to find all players with wrist or forearm fractures. Given that Pujols' injury doesn't appear to be severe, I looked only at factures that caused the player to miss between 30 and 90 days.
The good news for Pujols is that minor wrist fractures do not seem to have had a lasting impact on the 18 players that had them in the last decade. The average player that suffered the injury underperformed his ZiPS projected OPS by 22 points upon his return that year, and the next season by 16 points. But considering the error bars for any projection, whether man or machine, and the extremely small sample size, it's not enough to affect the expectation by more than a point or two.
Now injuries and missed time do cause uncertainty, important when a team is considering giving one of the richest contracts in MLB history to a player. So I asked ZiPS to project Pujols twice, once with his rest-of-season projection for 2011 included and once with only half of the rest-of-season projection included (to reflect missed time). Without the injury, Pujols projects to 32 wins above replacement from 2012 to 2017. With the injury, that drops to 30 wins above replacement. The bigger concern that teams will likely have going into the offseason is whether Pujols' relatively disappointing performance -- going from an otherworldly superstar to a merely ordinary superstar -- will merit the $30 million a year that he's believed to be seeking.
Of course, there is more to this injury than its impact on Pujols' bank account. So what about the pennant chase? Assuming Pujols only misses four to six weeks, it's not really enough to drastically change the contours of the NL Central race. While the Cardinals lost Allen Craig to a fracture earlier this week, Lance Berkman is a natural choice to play first base, with a full-time Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus/Jon Jay outfield. Pujols is obviously a much better hitter than Jay, but over four to six weeks, the difference probably won't amount to more than a win. If Berkman, currently day-to-day with nagging back and leg injuries, ends up on the DL, the Cards would begin to feel the impact. Andrew Brown would be the likely beneficiary of Berkman's plate appearances, and despite that he's having the best season of his career with Memphis, you could start to look at a loss of two wins for St. Louis. That may not sound like much, but with the Cardinals currently tied with the Brewers and only two games ahead of the Reds, the Cards will likely need those two wins to make the postseason.
Just how much should the wrist injury affect Pujols' expectations going forward? To try to get an answer for this, I consulted the injury database of Kyle Boddy at Driveline Baseball, which has detailed injury information going back about a decade. I asked the database to find all players with wrist or forearm fractures. Given that Pujols' injury doesn't appear to be severe, I looked only at factures that caused the player to miss between 30 and 90 days.
The good news for Pujols is that minor wrist fractures do not seem to have had a lasting impact on the 18 players that had them in the last decade. The average player that suffered the injury underperformed his ZiPS projected OPS by 22 points upon his return that year, and the next season by 16 points. But considering the error bars for any projection, whether man or machine, and the extremely small sample size, it's not enough to affect the expectation by more than a point or two.
Now injuries and missed time do cause uncertainty, important when a team is considering giving one of the richest contracts in MLB history to a player. So I asked ZiPS to project Pujols twice, once with his rest-of-season projection for 2011 included and once with only half of the rest-of-season projection included (to reflect missed time). Without the injury, Pujols projects to 32 wins above replacement from 2012 to 2017. With the injury, that drops to 30 wins above replacement. The bigger concern that teams will likely have going into the offseason is whether Pujols' relatively disappointing performance -- going from an otherworldly superstar to a merely ordinary superstar -- will merit the $30 million a year that he's believed to be seeking.
Of course, there is more to this injury than its impact on Pujols' bank account. So what about the pennant chase? Assuming Pujols only misses four to six weeks, it's not really enough to drastically change the contours of the NL Central race. While the Cardinals lost Allen Craig to a fracture earlier this week, Lance Berkman is a natural choice to play first base, with a full-time Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus/Jon Jay outfield. Pujols is obviously a much better hitter than Jay, but over four to six weeks, the difference probably won't amount to more than a win. If Berkman, currently day-to-day with nagging back and leg injuries, ends up on the DL, the Cards would begin to feel the impact. Andrew Brown would be the likely beneficiary of Berkman's plate appearances, and despite that he's having the best season of his career with Memphis, you could start to look at a loss of two wins for St. Louis. That may not sound like much, but with the Cardinals currently tied with the Brewers and only two games ahead of the Reds, the Cards will likely need those two wins to make the postseason.
Bumgarner and his record.
Spoiler [+]
On Monday, I discussed the success http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4514/ryan-vogelsong">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/4514/ryan-vogelsong')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4514" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="88">Ryan Vogelsong has had since taking a place in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants rotation. However, his teammate http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29949/madison-bumgarner">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../29949/madison-bumgarner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29949" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="89">Madison Bumgarner has had his own success this year as well. The 21-year-old lefty enters his Tuesday start against the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins having put together a streak of 10 straight quality starts.
That streak, a level of consistency that owners in head-to-head formats can especially appreciate, shows that Bumgarner has pitched better than his 3-8 record would indicate.
On the surface, there doesn't appear to be a ton of growth in Bumgarner's game, especially when compared to how he finished last season, but there have been some small steps that give the southpaw a good chance to keep things up going forward.
"I just wanted to try to be more consistent [this season]," Bumgarner said. "More consistent with all of my pitches, be able to throw them to a spot, and repeat the delivery better."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesDuring his 10-game quality-start stretch, Madison Bumgarner is just 3-5.
Bumgarner's velocity has bumped up a tick this season, a good sign for a pitcher who has had to deal with questions about his radar gun numbers in each of the past two years. He now sits more consistently in the 91-94 mph range. His hard slider has become more of a weapon this year, with its tilt absolutely neutralizing left-handed hitters. While Bumgarner's overall strikeout rate remains just under seven batters per nine innings as it did last season, and his walk rate sits a notch higher at just over two and half batters per nine, his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties balloons to 9.5-to-1. Left-handed hitters are also slugging just .236 against him and have not homered all season thanks in large part to that slider.
In fact, Bumgarner has allowed just four homers total in 14 starts, a number that certainly plays a large part in putting quality starts on the board. His ground ball profile and home park help in that regard, but Bumgarner is also legitimately a tough pitcher to barrel up on.
He's been going to that slider a bit more this season at the expense of his changeup. "I've never thrown that many changeups," Bumgarner said, "but it's better than it's been before." I agree with that assessment and think he should go to it more often than he does, especially against right-handed batters, and think that perhaps a better pitch mix can provide for some further growth. I get that a pitcher in his early 20s probably doesn't want to throw what he views to be his fourth-best pitch that much (Bumgarner also throws a curve to go with the slider that he likes to use as a chase pitch), and that if he's going to get beat, he would prefer it comes on one of his primary offerings, but maybe the change's relative lack of use has caused him to not has as much feel or confidence in it as he should. He'd benefit in the long run overall, and with his strikeout rate as well, by incorporating it a bit more.
Bumgarner mentioned repeating his delivery a little better, and there are still some small strides that can be made in that area as well. When his mechanics are off, he throws a little too much across his body, going a little too much towards the first base dugout instead of staying on line with the plate. A touch more consistency with that can also boost the strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Still, fantasy owners will take what Bumgarner is doing right now just fine, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starting pitching option posting a lot of quality starts for the balance of the year. Despite the win-loss record and lack of monster strikeout totals, Bumgarner is a quietly effective option at the back of a mixed league pitching staff.
[h3]Other notes:[/h3]
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6478/nick-markakis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/6478/nick-markakis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6478" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="90">Nick Markakis' back-to-back seasons of declining homer totals and slugging percentage haven't been difficult to notice, and this year he hasn't been providing the batting average, either. I don't have any answers to the power outage other than speculation that his approach has been part of it, that he's been too aggressive in going after pitches he can make contact with rather than waiting for something he can pull strongly to right field. Sometimes having extreme contact ability can lead to a player perhaps being a little too aggressive, and pitchers will recognize that and challenge the hitter off the plate more, leading to weaker contact. That's been the book on Markakis recently.
That's the best I can come up with and it's certainly not the whole story, but Markakis still has his uses in mixed leagues and head-to-head play if he is hitting for batting average thanks to his role as a lineup fixture. I just acquired him in a deep AL-only league this weekend in what I viewed as maybe my last chance to buy low on a player who has been known to be a very streaky hitter. Although he's hitting just .265 with five homers overall, he's in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak in which he's posted 17 hits to raise his average almost 30 points. No, that Markakis that was a fantasy stud in 2007 isn't coming back, but the 27-year-old can still provide some value, even if the power never gets out of the teens range again.
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30193/freddie-freeman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30193" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="91">Freddie Freeman struggled to make adjustments in his first month in the big leagues, hitting just .217. "Obviously, pitchers [at this level] know where your weaknesses are," Freeman told me last month. "They find your holes and they don't miss their spots very often. I have some timing things in my swing, so they're pitching me in, and then soft away."
Freeman also had some mechanical issues in his stroke that involved not staying upright enough. When he's going right, Freeman uses his inside-out stroke from the left side to make hard contact up the middle and to the opposite field. However, Freeman was bending his upper half over a bit in order to try to keep his swing closed, and he would wind up having to completely fly open if he wanted to get to the pitch on the inner half, or else cut his swing off, limiting his power. His stance and swing has looked a bit more consistent recently than when I saw him in May, and his bat is staying in the hitting zone a bit longer. He's hit .314 and slugged .500 over the past month with 10 doubles and three homers, so hopefully he can stay in rhythm with his setup and batting stroke.
There are owners out there looking for an http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="92">Albert Pujols replacement this morning, and while I'd look at http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30175/justin-smoak">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30175/justin-smoak')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30175" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="93">Justin Smoak first to see if he's available in your league, Freeman has at least made himself an option as a temporary replacement in mixed league formats.
That streak, a level of consistency that owners in head-to-head formats can especially appreciate, shows that Bumgarner has pitched better than his 3-8 record would indicate.
On the surface, there doesn't appear to be a ton of growth in Bumgarner's game, especially when compared to how he finished last season, but there have been some small steps that give the southpaw a good chance to keep things up going forward.
"I just wanted to try to be more consistent [this season]," Bumgarner said. "More consistent with all of my pitches, be able to throw them to a spot, and repeat the delivery better."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesDuring his 10-game quality-start stretch, Madison Bumgarner is just 3-5.
Bumgarner's velocity has bumped up a tick this season, a good sign for a pitcher who has had to deal with questions about his radar gun numbers in each of the past two years. He now sits more consistently in the 91-94 mph range. His hard slider has become more of a weapon this year, with its tilt absolutely neutralizing left-handed hitters. While Bumgarner's overall strikeout rate remains just under seven batters per nine innings as it did last season, and his walk rate sits a notch higher at just over two and half batters per nine, his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties balloons to 9.5-to-1. Left-handed hitters are also slugging just .236 against him and have not homered all season thanks in large part to that slider.
In fact, Bumgarner has allowed just four homers total in 14 starts, a number that certainly plays a large part in putting quality starts on the board. His ground ball profile and home park help in that regard, but Bumgarner is also legitimately a tough pitcher to barrel up on.
He's been going to that slider a bit more this season at the expense of his changeup. "I've never thrown that many changeups," Bumgarner said, "but it's better than it's been before." I agree with that assessment and think he should go to it more often than he does, especially against right-handed batters, and think that perhaps a better pitch mix can provide for some further growth. I get that a pitcher in his early 20s probably doesn't want to throw what he views to be his fourth-best pitch that much (Bumgarner also throws a curve to go with the slider that he likes to use as a chase pitch), and that if he's going to get beat, he would prefer it comes on one of his primary offerings, but maybe the change's relative lack of use has caused him to not has as much feel or confidence in it as he should. He'd benefit in the long run overall, and with his strikeout rate as well, by incorporating it a bit more.
Bumgarner mentioned repeating his delivery a little better, and there are still some small strides that can be made in that area as well. When his mechanics are off, he throws a little too much across his body, going a little too much towards the first base dugout instead of staying on line with the plate. A touch more consistency with that can also boost the strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Still, fantasy owners will take what Bumgarner is doing right now just fine, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starting pitching option posting a lot of quality starts for the balance of the year. Despite the win-loss record and lack of monster strikeout totals, Bumgarner is a quietly effective option at the back of a mixed league pitching staff.
[h3]Other notes:[/h3]
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6478/nick-markakis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/6478/nick-markakis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6478" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="90">Nick Markakis' back-to-back seasons of declining homer totals and slugging percentage haven't been difficult to notice, and this year he hasn't been providing the batting average, either. I don't have any answers to the power outage other than speculation that his approach has been part of it, that he's been too aggressive in going after pitches he can make contact with rather than waiting for something he can pull strongly to right field. Sometimes having extreme contact ability can lead to a player perhaps being a little too aggressive, and pitchers will recognize that and challenge the hitter off the plate more, leading to weaker contact. That's been the book on Markakis recently.
That's the best I can come up with and it's certainly not the whole story, but Markakis still has his uses in mixed leagues and head-to-head play if he is hitting for batting average thanks to his role as a lineup fixture. I just acquired him in a deep AL-only league this weekend in what I viewed as maybe my last chance to buy low on a player who has been known to be a very streaky hitter. Although he's hitting just .265 with five homers overall, he's in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak in which he's posted 17 hits to raise his average almost 30 points. No, that Markakis that was a fantasy stud in 2007 isn't coming back, but the 27-year-old can still provide some value, even if the power never gets out of the teens range again.
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30193/freddie-freeman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30193" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="91">Freddie Freeman struggled to make adjustments in his first month in the big leagues, hitting just .217. "Obviously, pitchers [at this level] know where your weaknesses are," Freeman told me last month. "They find your holes and they don't miss their spots very often. I have some timing things in my swing, so they're pitching me in, and then soft away."
Freeman also had some mechanical issues in his stroke that involved not staying upright enough. When he's going right, Freeman uses his inside-out stroke from the left side to make hard contact up the middle and to the opposite field. However, Freeman was bending his upper half over a bit in order to try to keep his swing closed, and he would wind up having to completely fly open if he wanted to get to the pitch on the inner half, or else cut his swing off, limiting his power. His stance and swing has looked a bit more consistent recently than when I saw him in May, and his bat is staying in the hitting zone a bit longer. He's hit .314 and slugged .500 over the past month with 10 doubles and three homers, so hopefully he can stay in rhythm with his setup and batting stroke.
There are owners out there looking for an http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="92">Albert Pujols replacement this morning, and while I'd look at http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30175/justin-smoak">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30175/justin-smoak')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30175" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="93">Justin Smoak first to see if he's available in your league, Freeman has at least made himself an option as a temporary replacement in mixed league formats.
Best offseason pick-ups.
Spoiler [+]
Cliff Lee and Adrian Gonzalez share two things in common: They're two of the hottest players in baseball, and they play for the two best teams in the majors.
But did they make the cut for our top offseason pickups list? Using a combination of dollars spent, expectations and tangible results, we picked a top five, using five different categories of acquisitions. With more than half the season left, and in some cases four or five years to go in a given contract, these rankings are likely to change over time. But for now, these are the best of the best.
Best big-ticket signing: Cliff Lee
He's so good, he's swayed two pennant races in two different leagues. Had Lee accepted the Yankees' offer (reportedly the highest made by any team), you could probably nudge New York ahead of Boston in the American League East standings. Instead, the Phillies gained a third ace (sorry, Roy Oswalt, you're not that guy anymore) and now possess two of the three best left-handed starters in the game in Lee and Cole Hamels.
A five-year contract for any pitcher comes fraught with risk. But after what looked like a shaky start (Lee's ERA and record lagged behind his peers at first), he's caught fire: 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA, 21 strikeouts and five walks in his last three starts. Only all-world teammate Roy Halladay has more strikeouts than Lee's 111, and Lee ranks fifth in baseball in fielding independent pitching at 2.57, with Halladay and Hamels ranked 1-2. There is no scenario in which paying your third-best starter $120 million makes even a modicum of sense … except this one.
Best midlevel signing: Lance Berkman
I was wrong. I (and numerous other baseball writers) thought paying a 35-year-old Berkman $8 million this year was a reach, and one with little upside. All he's done so far is hit .309/.423/.604, ranking second in the National League in on-base percentage and third in slugging, while playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors.
It's easy to see now where we went wrong. In an open market where it costs about $5 million to buy one win worth of value, $8 million represents a minor risk, especially when it's only a one-year deal. Also, writing a formerly successful player off after one or two bad seasons due to age or injury concerns can prove to be a bad idea, more often than we'd care to admit.
Best bargain signing: Bartolo Colon
How did a 38-year-old Colon -- having not pitched at all in the majors last year and having not managed even 100 innings pitched in a season since 2005 -- become a solid consolation prize for whiffing on Lee? Both Colon and the antiaging doctor who treated his thought-to-be-scragged right arm have come under tremendous scrutiny, with reporters suspicious of performance-enhancing drug use. Maybe it's the era in which we live, or just that we don't trust what we don't understand. Either way, Colon's successful stem cell therapy treatment has fueled a surge in demand for similar procedures among other struggling and rehabbing pitchers.
And why not? Colon's current hamstring-strain-induced DL stint notwithstanding, the corpulent right-hander sports a 4-1 strikeout-walk rate, is on pace for the second-highest strikeout rate of his career and has been a worthy No. 2 starter for a rotation that was decimated with Andy Pettitte's retirement, Lee's snub and Phil Hughes' arm woes. Even if Colon never pitches another inning for the Yankees, getting him on a minor league deal with a $900,000 big league salary qualifies as grand larceny.
Best big-ticket trade acquisition: Adrian Gonzalez
The best deals aren't always the ones that you get for 10 cents on the dollar. When the Red Sox acquired Gonzalez to ostensibly replace the very productive Adrian Beltre, they gave up three premium prospects in Casey Kelly, Raymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo's already cracked the Padres' roster and replaced Gonzalez at first base after destroying Triple-A pitching for two months, and could be a future All-Star.
Still, no Sox fan in his right mind could complain about the one that got away, given the one they got: Gonzalez ranks third among all position players in wins above replacement, hitting .348/.403/.607 and playing his usual stellar defense. David Ortiz and Josh Beckett have regained their superstar form of old, and Boston's roster is stuffed with championship-caliber talent. But Gonzalez is the most valuable member of the Red Sox and the best player in the American League not named Jose Bautista.
Best out-of-nowhere acquisition: Philip Humber/Ryan Vogelsong (tie)
Colon might be putting up his first good season in six years, but he's still a former All-Star and Cy Young winner. Vogelsong and Humber, on the other hand, seemed destined to remain painful memories of superstar trades gone wrong.
Humber was supposed to be a big piece in the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets three years ago. Two teams later, Humber has finally broken through with the White Sox, using pinpoint control (his 2.08 BB/9 IP rate ranks ninth in the AL, just behind Colon) and some welcome luck on balls in play to work his way into a deep and talented Chicago rotation. Vogelsong was a key ingredient in the Giants' trade for Jason Schmidt 10 years ago. A month shy of his 34th birthday, he wields a 3-1 strikeout-walk rate and a 1.92 ERA that would rank second only to Beckett if Vogelsong didn't just miss the innings pitched threshold for qualified starters. On a defending champion Giants team shackled with a terrible offense, Vogelsong has been the unsung hero on a stacked pitching staff.
The best part for their respective teams? In baseball terms, Humber and Vogelsong are making the combined equivalent of a ham sandwich -- albeit one with fancy mustard.
But did they make the cut for our top offseason pickups list? Using a combination of dollars spent, expectations and tangible results, we picked a top five, using five different categories of acquisitions. With more than half the season left, and in some cases four or five years to go in a given contract, these rankings are likely to change over time. But for now, these are the best of the best.
Best big-ticket signing: Cliff Lee
He's so good, he's swayed two pennant races in two different leagues. Had Lee accepted the Yankees' offer (reportedly the highest made by any team), you could probably nudge New York ahead of Boston in the American League East standings. Instead, the Phillies gained a third ace (sorry, Roy Oswalt, you're not that guy anymore) and now possess two of the three best left-handed starters in the game in Lee and Cole Hamels.
A five-year contract for any pitcher comes fraught with risk. But after what looked like a shaky start (Lee's ERA and record lagged behind his peers at first), he's caught fire: 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA, 21 strikeouts and five walks in his last three starts. Only all-world teammate Roy Halladay has more strikeouts than Lee's 111, and Lee ranks fifth in baseball in fielding independent pitching at 2.57, with Halladay and Hamels ranked 1-2. There is no scenario in which paying your third-best starter $120 million makes even a modicum of sense … except this one.
Best midlevel signing: Lance Berkman
I was wrong. I (and numerous other baseball writers) thought paying a 35-year-old Berkman $8 million this year was a reach, and one with little upside. All he's done so far is hit .309/.423/.604, ranking second in the National League in on-base percentage and third in slugging, while playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors.
It's easy to see now where we went wrong. In an open market where it costs about $5 million to buy one win worth of value, $8 million represents a minor risk, especially when it's only a one-year deal. Also, writing a formerly successful player off after one or two bad seasons due to age or injury concerns can prove to be a bad idea, more often than we'd care to admit.
Best bargain signing: Bartolo Colon
How did a 38-year-old Colon -- having not pitched at all in the majors last year and having not managed even 100 innings pitched in a season since 2005 -- become a solid consolation prize for whiffing on Lee? Both Colon and the antiaging doctor who treated his thought-to-be-scragged right arm have come under tremendous scrutiny, with reporters suspicious of performance-enhancing drug use. Maybe it's the era in which we live, or just that we don't trust what we don't understand. Either way, Colon's successful stem cell therapy treatment has fueled a surge in demand for similar procedures among other struggling and rehabbing pitchers.
And why not? Colon's current hamstring-strain-induced DL stint notwithstanding, the corpulent right-hander sports a 4-1 strikeout-walk rate, is on pace for the second-highest strikeout rate of his career and has been a worthy No. 2 starter for a rotation that was decimated with Andy Pettitte's retirement, Lee's snub and Phil Hughes' arm woes. Even if Colon never pitches another inning for the Yankees, getting him on a minor league deal with a $900,000 big league salary qualifies as grand larceny.
Best big-ticket trade acquisition: Adrian Gonzalez
The best deals aren't always the ones that you get for 10 cents on the dollar. When the Red Sox acquired Gonzalez to ostensibly replace the very productive Adrian Beltre, they gave up three premium prospects in Casey Kelly, Raymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo's already cracked the Padres' roster and replaced Gonzalez at first base after destroying Triple-A pitching for two months, and could be a future All-Star.
Still, no Sox fan in his right mind could complain about the one that got away, given the one they got: Gonzalez ranks third among all position players in wins above replacement, hitting .348/.403/.607 and playing his usual stellar defense. David Ortiz and Josh Beckett have regained their superstar form of old, and Boston's roster is stuffed with championship-caliber talent. But Gonzalez is the most valuable member of the Red Sox and the best player in the American League not named Jose Bautista.
Best out-of-nowhere acquisition: Philip Humber/Ryan Vogelsong (tie)
Colon might be putting up his first good season in six years, but he's still a former All-Star and Cy Young winner. Vogelsong and Humber, on the other hand, seemed destined to remain painful memories of superstar trades gone wrong.
Humber was supposed to be a big piece in the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets three years ago. Two teams later, Humber has finally broken through with the White Sox, using pinpoint control (his 2.08 BB/9 IP rate ranks ninth in the AL, just behind Colon) and some welcome luck on balls in play to work his way into a deep and talented Chicago rotation. Vogelsong was a key ingredient in the Giants' trade for Jason Schmidt 10 years ago. A month shy of his 34th birthday, he wields a 3-1 strikeout-walk rate and a 1.92 ERA that would rank second only to Beckett if Vogelsong didn't just miss the innings pitched threshold for qualified starters. On a defending champion Giants team shackled with a terrible offense, Vogelsong has been the unsung hero on a stacked pitching staff.
The best part for their respective teams? In baseball terms, Humber and Vogelsong are making the combined equivalent of a ham sandwich -- albeit one with fancy mustard.
New Price for Pujols?
Projecting post-injury Albert.
Bumgarner and his record.
Best offseason pick-ups.
Spoiler [+]
So now it appears that Albert Pujols will have about six to eight weeks toward the end of this season to demonstrate that his left wrist is healthy, to show that the primary lever in The Machine will be as powerful as ever. He'll have to show this not only to pitchers, who will pound him inside with fastballs, but also to prospective employers, who Pujols needs to drive up his market value and push the St. Louis Cardinals' bidding.
Getty ImagesWill Albert wince again during free agency?
It's not exactly clear what the Cardinals offered Pujols before he severed contract talks at the start of spring training, whether it was nine years, $189 million or 10 years and $210 million or eight years at $168 million. It was likely something in the range of $21 million a year, and he said no basically because he wants a higher average annual value in his contract.
But Pujols will have difficulty making that happen unless he hits after he comes back. There will be more pressure on Pujols to hit in the final weeks of this season than there has been on any prospective free agent in the history of baseball, some evaluators and executives agreed Monday. It's highly unlikely that any team would make the kind of investment offer that Pujols wants on spec; teams will want to see The Machine as an indestructible force in late August and September, turning on inside fastballs and dismissing them over fences.
"He's a power guy," said one longtime NL evaluator. "This could be a $50 million injury. Maybe more."
What executives and scouts know is it took Cliff Floyd years to regain his power after suffering an injury on a similar play -- reaching into a runner with his glove hand, as a first baseman, and having his hand mashed back into his arm. Floyd never played first base again.
"He went from being potentially a great player to being a pretty good player the rest of his career," said one scout.
The same happened to Derrek Lee, and some evaluators think it was a turning point in his career. "It sapped the finish in his swing," said the same scout.
"Albert's hand-eye coordination is so good that he will still be able to hit when he comes back. The question is, will he hit with power? Will he drive the ball?
"And he will be busted immediately when he comes back. Big-time. If I'm pitching to him and I know he has a bad wrist, I'm going to pound him inside with fastballs until he shows he can hit that pitch. If he doesn't, that's a problem."
I asked some rival evaluators for their take on whether Pujols will be under pressure to perform at the end of this year, and whether the injury has a chance to have a major impact on his free agency.
From a longtime NL executive: "I think the final two months will be critical for Pujols. If his power is compromised, it will be difficult from a scouting and medical perspective to determine if his power will return. I do think wrist injuries can be career-altering. His uneven start [by Pujols' standards] and the monster season by [Prince] Fielder will also complicate his market. In addition, the long [six-plus years] and monstrous [$100m+] contracts often do more harm than good.
"That being said, he is still Albert Pujols ... and everyone is looking for offense in the new pitching-dominated reality. His chances of surpassing $250 million seem remote. More likely, he will end up in the $150m-$200m range."
From a longtime AL evaluator: "Albert Pujols is the Lou Gehrig of our time in terms of durability and production. How others have done after similar injuries is a guide, but not an absolute to determine his future effectiveness. King Albert is the best player in baseball in the prime of his illustrious career. Ultimately he'll get paid handsomely.
"The fact that the two superpowers have Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira playing Albert's primary position will affect his market more than his wrist. Plus the other king -- Miguel Cabrera -- eliminates the Tigers from the bidding as well. Just not a lot of teams have the wiggle room to pay Albert what he's worth ultimately and still field a successful team. I'm a fan of Alex Rodriguez but his contract will ultimately be an albatross that the Yankees will regret. Albert Pujols has earned the right to explore free agency and get market value. However, in this case what he means to the Cardinals and how special that venue is to Albert should inevitably allow both sides to make a deal that works for both sides. It's similar, but probably more lucrative than what the Twins were able to accomplish with Joe Mauer.
"Cliff Floyd's catastrophic injury to his wrist while playing first base didn't affect his production for the bulk of his career (although it gave him a phobia for the rest of his career about playing that particular position). Unfortunately, Cliff suffered a malady of injuries during his long, productive, powerful career. Subsequently, to single one particular injury out would not be correct. Derrek Lee is entering the twilight of his career in regards to age. Hopefully he captures a renaissance at an advanced age and becomes productive again. Ultimately, on the wrong side of 35 there are no guarantees whether he previously hurt his wrist or not."
From an AL evaluator: "It's going to be tough. If it's an issue of the ligaments in particular in the wrist, the strength of them, it could be a year before he's back to normal; in those cases it's typically surgery that I worry about and would give the hitter an extended period of time before I'd expect him to return to his normal production level.
"In this case if it's a break of the forearm and the strength of the wrist itself isn't compromised too much, I would say he'd have a pretty decent shot to return to full strength pretty quickly when he's healed -- but who knows. Either way you cut it, it's not good. I don't think that ultimately it will cost Pujols much this offseason, his body of work is so extensive and so outstanding that as long as he proves he's healthy, even if he doesn't perform up to his standards, he's still going to break the bank."
From an NL evaluator: "There's no doubt in my mind that Orlando Hudson, Floyd and Lee were not the same players after their wrist injuries. All three, in their primes, were very good players capable of making All-Star teams and maybe just short of being franchise-type players. The difference for me is that Pujols is beyond a franchise player and may be the best hitter, in terms of production and performance, to come along since Ted Williams. Put another way, he's a freak and freaks don't respond the way very good players respond. Nothing Pujols has done has been similar to any players from this era, so trying to compare him to others with similar injuries is difficult.
"In terms of the corollary question, I have no doubt Floyd and Lee were affected, as hitters, after their wrist injuries. They lost bat speed and were unable to generate the same power before the injuries. The other unspoken factor with both players is that they were big guys who slowed down as they aged; if the wrist injury had occurred closer to age 25 than age 35 the script may have been different for both players. However, there is no doubt it had a profound effect on both players' careers."
The Cardinals will now search internally for a way to replace Pujols in the lineup, and it isn't necessarily going to be Lance Berkman who steps in at first base. Bryan Burwell asks the question: Can the Cardinals win without Pujols?
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jack McKeon's first order of business was to bench Hanley Ramirez, who showed up late for the first meeting that McKeon oversaw.
It's an interesting decision, because given Ramirez's personality, he could either go into an emotional hole, or maybe it lights a fire under him. Maybe they have nothing to lose, because he's not hitting, anyway. McKeon sent a message immediately, writes Clark Spencer.
McKeon's return helped lighten the mood, writes Mike Berardino. McKeon made a case for himself, as Joe Capozzi writes.
The Marlins lost again; that's 11 straight, and counting.
• In a related story: Ozzie Guillen might bolt the White Sox if he doesn't feel wanted, writes Joe Cowley, who reports that Guillen had a meeting with Jerry Reinsdorf and didn't necessarily like what he was told.
Guillen lives in Miami, of course, in the offseason and has been connected with the Marlins' job in the past.
Some rival executives talked about this potential matchup -- of the impetuous Guillen, who always says exactly what he thinks, and the impetuous Jeffrey Loria, who has had six managers in nine years. "Ozzie would be fired 20 different times by the end of spring training," said one executive.
• Paul Konerko is the yin to Adrian Gonzalez's yang in the early MVP talk in the American League, and he had another nice day on Monday, mashing a three-run homer.
Konerko's numbers, from ESPN Stats & Information: Konerko's home run Monday was his 20th of the season. He passed Frank Thomas for the most 20-home run seasons White Sox history. The most in Sox history:
Paul Konerko: 12
Frank Thomas: 11
Harold Baines: 7
6 Players: 5
With his 385th homer, Konerko passed a White Sox legend on the all-time list. Baines finished his career with 384.
• As expected, Major League Baseball rejected the proposed TV deal that was at the heart of Frank McCourt's divorce settlement.
Now it's time to step aside and let the lawyers go at it, with bare-knuckle legal briefs.
Bud Selig said no because he doesn't trust McCourt, writes Bill Plaschke.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Giants need to create their own trade market.
2. Adrian Gonzalez is ready to move to the outfield for a couple of games to get David Ortiz in the lineup.
3. Phil Rogers makes the case for Rick Hahn to be GM of the White Sox, or the Cubs.
4. The slumping Lyle Overbay was benched.
5. The Blue Jays locked up Yunel Escobar to a two-year deal.
6. Dexter Fowler will continue to stay in Triple-A.
7. Justin Verlander's chances for pitching in the All-Star Game aren't helped by the way the Detroit rotation lines up.
8. Henry Schulman addresses the question of whether Bruce Bochy will fill the All-Star team with Giants.
9. Grant Balfour is looking like an All-Star, writes John Shea. Balfour is among the relievers expected to be available in the trade market, by the way; he'd be a great fit for the Rangers, if Oakland decides to pull up stakes on the 2011 season.
10. The next few weeks are key for Carlos Beltran and the Mets.
11. There is a disconnect between what Jose Reyes is asking for and what the Mets are willing to pay him, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Webb had another tough rehab start, failing to get through an inning.
2. Martin Prado is not ready to come back.
3. Jeremy Guthrie is getting the ball today.
4. Alberto Callaspo is ready to come back.
5. The Brewers got good news on Shaun Marcum.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Hudson did it all.
2. The Red Sox continue to kill the ball, and this time, Adrian Gonzalez's former teammates were the victims. Andrew Miller was solid, writes Bob Ryan. Along the way, the Red Sox had a big inning, as ESPN Stats & Info notes: In the bottom of the seventh, the Red Sox scored their most runs in an inning since 2009, scoring 10 in the seventh inning Monday against the Padres in a 14-5 win. Here's a look at some numbers from that inning:
42:29 - Time from first to last pitch
14 - Batters faced (5-8, 4 BB, 2 HBP)
4 - Padres pitchers used
68 - Pitches thrown (36 strikes, 32 balls)
10 - Runs scored
25 - Swings
1 - Miss
From Elias: The Red Sox scored 10-plus runs for the ninth time in the last 30 games. With the win, Boston moved into a tie with the idle Twins for the highest win percentage this month:
Red Sox: .824 (14-3)
Twins: .824 (14-3)
Yankees: .667 (12-6)
Nationals: .667 (12-6)
3. Carlos Zambrano was The Man for the Cubs.
4. Charlie Morton got pounded.
5. The Rockies rallied in a big way, as Jim Armstrong writes.
6. Ricky Romero called out the Toronto offense after he lost 2-0. This kind of thing almost never turns out well.
7. The Tigers had no answers against Clayton Kershaw. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Kershaw dominated:
• Kershaw went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw 21 sliders in the game, 16 of which came with two strikes. All 12 outs he got on his slider came with two strikes, including a career-best 10 strikeouts (all swinging).
• Tigers hitters couldn't lay off his slider. They swung at 17 of the 21 (81 percent) he threw, including 14 of 16 (87.5 percent) with two strikes. No Kershaw opponent has swung more often at his slider in his career (minimum three sliders).
• Kershaw had good command of his slider, keeping it primarily down in the zone. He threw 10 sliders down in the zone, all with two strikes. Tigers hitters swung at eight of them and missed on seven.
From Elias: Kershaw two-hit the Tigers in a 4-0 win, posting his third career shutout. Kershaw finished his shutout in style by striking out the side in the ninth. The last Dodgers starter to finish a shutout by striking out the side was Sandy Koufax in his perfect game on Sept. 9, 1965, against the Cubs.
8. The Reds didn't generate much offense Monday. Travis Wood recovered, but too late.
9. The Indians couldn't recover after a big inning went against them, as Dennis Manoloff writes.
10. The Angels piled on.
11. Jeff Niemann was back to his old form.
12. The Brewers' interleague woes continue.
13. Ivan Nova was poised, and he won again.
14. The Rangers opened their homestand in style.
Getty ImagesWill Albert wince again during free agency?
It's not exactly clear what the Cardinals offered Pujols before he severed contract talks at the start of spring training, whether it was nine years, $189 million or 10 years and $210 million or eight years at $168 million. It was likely something in the range of $21 million a year, and he said no basically because he wants a higher average annual value in his contract.
But Pujols will have difficulty making that happen unless he hits after he comes back. There will be more pressure on Pujols to hit in the final weeks of this season than there has been on any prospective free agent in the history of baseball, some evaluators and executives agreed Monday. It's highly unlikely that any team would make the kind of investment offer that Pujols wants on spec; teams will want to see The Machine as an indestructible force in late August and September, turning on inside fastballs and dismissing them over fences.
"He's a power guy," said one longtime NL evaluator. "This could be a $50 million injury. Maybe more."
What executives and scouts know is it took Cliff Floyd years to regain his power after suffering an injury on a similar play -- reaching into a runner with his glove hand, as a first baseman, and having his hand mashed back into his arm. Floyd never played first base again.
"He went from being potentially a great player to being a pretty good player the rest of his career," said one scout.
The same happened to Derrek Lee, and some evaluators think it was a turning point in his career. "It sapped the finish in his swing," said the same scout.
"Albert's hand-eye coordination is so good that he will still be able to hit when he comes back. The question is, will he hit with power? Will he drive the ball?
"And he will be busted immediately when he comes back. Big-time. If I'm pitching to him and I know he has a bad wrist, I'm going to pound him inside with fastballs until he shows he can hit that pitch. If he doesn't, that's a problem."
I asked some rival evaluators for their take on whether Pujols will be under pressure to perform at the end of this year, and whether the injury has a chance to have a major impact on his free agency.
From a longtime NL executive: "I think the final two months will be critical for Pujols. If his power is compromised, it will be difficult from a scouting and medical perspective to determine if his power will return. I do think wrist injuries can be career-altering. His uneven start [by Pujols' standards] and the monster season by [Prince] Fielder will also complicate his market. In addition, the long [six-plus years] and monstrous [$100m+] contracts often do more harm than good.
"That being said, he is still Albert Pujols ... and everyone is looking for offense in the new pitching-dominated reality. His chances of surpassing $250 million seem remote. More likely, he will end up in the $150m-$200m range."
From a longtime AL evaluator: "Albert Pujols is the Lou Gehrig of our time in terms of durability and production. How others have done after similar injuries is a guide, but not an absolute to determine his future effectiveness. King Albert is the best player in baseball in the prime of his illustrious career. Ultimately he'll get paid handsomely.
"The fact that the two superpowers have Adrian Gonzalez and Mark Teixeira playing Albert's primary position will affect his market more than his wrist. Plus the other king -- Miguel Cabrera -- eliminates the Tigers from the bidding as well. Just not a lot of teams have the wiggle room to pay Albert what he's worth ultimately and still field a successful team. I'm a fan of Alex Rodriguez but his contract will ultimately be an albatross that the Yankees will regret. Albert Pujols has earned the right to explore free agency and get market value. However, in this case what he means to the Cardinals and how special that venue is to Albert should inevitably allow both sides to make a deal that works for both sides. It's similar, but probably more lucrative than what the Twins were able to accomplish with Joe Mauer.
"Cliff Floyd's catastrophic injury to his wrist while playing first base didn't affect his production for the bulk of his career (although it gave him a phobia for the rest of his career about playing that particular position). Unfortunately, Cliff suffered a malady of injuries during his long, productive, powerful career. Subsequently, to single one particular injury out would not be correct. Derrek Lee is entering the twilight of his career in regards to age. Hopefully he captures a renaissance at an advanced age and becomes productive again. Ultimately, on the wrong side of 35 there are no guarantees whether he previously hurt his wrist or not."
From an AL evaluator: "It's going to be tough. If it's an issue of the ligaments in particular in the wrist, the strength of them, it could be a year before he's back to normal; in those cases it's typically surgery that I worry about and would give the hitter an extended period of time before I'd expect him to return to his normal production level.
"In this case if it's a break of the forearm and the strength of the wrist itself isn't compromised too much, I would say he'd have a pretty decent shot to return to full strength pretty quickly when he's healed -- but who knows. Either way you cut it, it's not good. I don't think that ultimately it will cost Pujols much this offseason, his body of work is so extensive and so outstanding that as long as he proves he's healthy, even if he doesn't perform up to his standards, he's still going to break the bank."
From an NL evaluator: "There's no doubt in my mind that Orlando Hudson, Floyd and Lee were not the same players after their wrist injuries. All three, in their primes, were very good players capable of making All-Star teams and maybe just short of being franchise-type players. The difference for me is that Pujols is beyond a franchise player and may be the best hitter, in terms of production and performance, to come along since Ted Williams. Put another way, he's a freak and freaks don't respond the way very good players respond. Nothing Pujols has done has been similar to any players from this era, so trying to compare him to others with similar injuries is difficult.
"In terms of the corollary question, I have no doubt Floyd and Lee were affected, as hitters, after their wrist injuries. They lost bat speed and were unable to generate the same power before the injuries. The other unspoken factor with both players is that they were big guys who slowed down as they aged; if the wrist injury had occurred closer to age 25 than age 35 the script may have been different for both players. However, there is no doubt it had a profound effect on both players' careers."
The Cardinals will now search internally for a way to replace Pujols in the lineup, and it isn't necessarily going to be Lance Berkman who steps in at first base. Bryan Burwell asks the question: Can the Cardinals win without Pujols?
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Jack McKeon's first order of business was to bench Hanley Ramirez, who showed up late for the first meeting that McKeon oversaw.
It's an interesting decision, because given Ramirez's personality, he could either go into an emotional hole, or maybe it lights a fire under him. Maybe they have nothing to lose, because he's not hitting, anyway. McKeon sent a message immediately, writes Clark Spencer.
McKeon's return helped lighten the mood, writes Mike Berardino. McKeon made a case for himself, as Joe Capozzi writes.
The Marlins lost again; that's 11 straight, and counting.
• In a related story: Ozzie Guillen might bolt the White Sox if he doesn't feel wanted, writes Joe Cowley, who reports that Guillen had a meeting with Jerry Reinsdorf and didn't necessarily like what he was told.
Guillen lives in Miami, of course, in the offseason and has been connected with the Marlins' job in the past.
Some rival executives talked about this potential matchup -- of the impetuous Guillen, who always says exactly what he thinks, and the impetuous Jeffrey Loria, who has had six managers in nine years. "Ozzie would be fired 20 different times by the end of spring training," said one executive.
• Paul Konerko is the yin to Adrian Gonzalez's yang in the early MVP talk in the American League, and he had another nice day on Monday, mashing a three-run homer.
Konerko's numbers, from ESPN Stats & Information: Konerko's home run Monday was his 20th of the season. He passed Frank Thomas for the most 20-home run seasons White Sox history. The most in Sox history:
Paul Konerko: 12
Frank Thomas: 11
Harold Baines: 7
6 Players: 5
With his 385th homer, Konerko passed a White Sox legend on the all-time list. Baines finished his career with 384.
• As expected, Major League Baseball rejected the proposed TV deal that was at the heart of Frank McCourt's divorce settlement.
Now it's time to step aside and let the lawyers go at it, with bare-knuckle legal briefs.
Bud Selig said no because he doesn't trust McCourt, writes Bill Plaschke.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Giants need to create their own trade market.
2. Adrian Gonzalez is ready to move to the outfield for a couple of games to get David Ortiz in the lineup.
3. Phil Rogers makes the case for Rick Hahn to be GM of the White Sox, or the Cubs.
4. The slumping Lyle Overbay was benched.
5. The Blue Jays locked up Yunel Escobar to a two-year deal.
6. Dexter Fowler will continue to stay in Triple-A.
7. Justin Verlander's chances for pitching in the All-Star Game aren't helped by the way the Detroit rotation lines up.
8. Henry Schulman addresses the question of whether Bruce Bochy will fill the All-Star team with Giants.
9. Grant Balfour is looking like an All-Star, writes John Shea. Balfour is among the relievers expected to be available in the trade market, by the way; he'd be a great fit for the Rangers, if Oakland decides to pull up stakes on the 2011 season.
10. The next few weeks are key for Carlos Beltran and the Mets.
11. There is a disconnect between what Jose Reyes is asking for and what the Mets are willing to pay him, writes Andy Martino.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brandon Webb had another tough rehab start, failing to get through an inning.
2. Martin Prado is not ready to come back.
3. Jeremy Guthrie is getting the ball today.
4. Alberto Callaspo is ready to come back.
5. The Brewers got good news on Shaun Marcum.
[h3]Monday's games[/h3]
1. Tim Hudson did it all.
2. The Red Sox continue to kill the ball, and this time, Adrian Gonzalez's former teammates were the victims. Andrew Miller was solid, writes Bob Ryan. Along the way, the Red Sox had a big inning, as ESPN Stats & Info notes: In the bottom of the seventh, the Red Sox scored their most runs in an inning since 2009, scoring 10 in the seventh inning Monday against the Padres in a 14-5 win. Here's a look at some numbers from that inning:
42:29 - Time from first to last pitch
14 - Batters faced (5-8, 4 BB, 2 HBP)
4 - Padres pitchers used
68 - Pitches thrown (36 strikes, 32 balls)
10 - Runs scored
25 - Swings
1 - Miss
From Elias: The Red Sox scored 10-plus runs for the ninth time in the last 30 games. With the win, Boston moved into a tie with the idle Twins for the highest win percentage this month:
Red Sox: .824 (14-3)
Twins: .824 (14-3)
Yankees: .667 (12-6)
Nationals: .667 (12-6)
3. Carlos Zambrano was The Man for the Cubs.
4. Charlie Morton got pounded.
5. The Rockies rallied in a big way, as Jim Armstrong writes.
6. Ricky Romero called out the Toronto offense after he lost 2-0. This kind of thing almost never turns out well.
7. The Tigers had no answers against Clayton Kershaw. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Kershaw dominated:
• Kershaw went to his slider as his out pitch. He threw 21 sliders in the game, 16 of which came with two strikes. All 12 outs he got on his slider came with two strikes, including a career-best 10 strikeouts (all swinging).
• Tigers hitters couldn't lay off his slider. They swung at 17 of the 21 (81 percent) he threw, including 14 of 16 (87.5 percent) with two strikes. No Kershaw opponent has swung more often at his slider in his career (minimum three sliders).
• Kershaw had good command of his slider, keeping it primarily down in the zone. He threw 10 sliders down in the zone, all with two strikes. Tigers hitters swung at eight of them and missed on seven.
From Elias: Kershaw two-hit the Tigers in a 4-0 win, posting his third career shutout. Kershaw finished his shutout in style by striking out the side in the ninth. The last Dodgers starter to finish a shutout by striking out the side was Sandy Koufax in his perfect game on Sept. 9, 1965, against the Cubs.
8. The Reds didn't generate much offense Monday. Travis Wood recovered, but too late.
9. The Indians couldn't recover after a big inning went against them, as Dennis Manoloff writes.
10. The Angels piled on.
11. Jeff Niemann was back to his old form.
12. The Brewers' interleague woes continue.
13. Ivan Nova was poised, and he won again.
14. The Rangers opened their homestand in style.
Projecting post-injury Albert.
Spoiler [+]
The St. Louis Cardinals received a bit of unwelcome news this afternoon when it was revealed Albert Pujols will miss up to six weeks with a fractured forearm that was caused by a collision with Wilson Betemit of the Kansas City Royals.
Just how much should the wrist injury affect Pujols' expectations going forward? To try to get an answer for this, I consulted the injury database of Kyle Boddy at Driveline Baseball, which has detailed injury information going back about a decade. I asked the database to find all players with wrist or forearm fractures. Given that Pujols' injury doesn't appear to be severe, I looked only at factures that caused the player to miss between 30 and 90 days.
The good news for Pujols is that minor wrist fractures do not seem to have had a lasting impact on the 18 players that had them in the last decade. The average player that suffered the injury underperformed his ZiPS projected OPS by 22 points upon his return that year, and the next season by 16 points. But considering the error bars for any projection, whether man or machine, and the extremely small sample size, it's not enough to affect the expectation by more than a point or two.
Now injuries and missed time do cause uncertainty, important when a team is considering giving one of the richest contracts in MLB history to a player. So I asked ZiPS to project Pujols twice, once with his rest-of-season projection for 2011 included and once with only half of the rest-of-season projection included (to reflect missed time). Without the injury, Pujols projects to 32 wins above replacement from 2012 to 2017. With the injury, that drops to 30 wins above replacement. The bigger concern that teams will likely have going into the offseason is whether Pujols' relatively disappointing performance -- going from an otherworldly superstar to a merely ordinary superstar -- will merit the $30 million a year that he's believed to be seeking.
Of course, there is more to this injury than its impact on Pujols' bank account. So what about the pennant chase? Assuming Pujols only misses four to six weeks, it's not really enough to drastically change the contours of the NL Central race. While the Cardinals lost Allen Craig to a fracture earlier this week, Lance Berkman is a natural choice to play first base, with a full-time Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus/Jon Jay outfield. Pujols is obviously a much better hitter than Jay, but over four to six weeks, the difference probably won't amount to more than a win. If Berkman, currently day-to-day with nagging back and leg injuries, ends up on the DL, the Cards would begin to feel the impact. Andrew Brown would be the likely beneficiary of Berkman's plate appearances, and despite that he's having the best season of his career with Memphis, you could start to look at a loss of two wins for St. Louis. That may not sound like much, but with the Cardinals currently tied with the Brewers and only two games ahead of the Reds, the Cards will likely need those two wins to make the postseason.
Just how much should the wrist injury affect Pujols' expectations going forward? To try to get an answer for this, I consulted the injury database of Kyle Boddy at Driveline Baseball, which has detailed injury information going back about a decade. I asked the database to find all players with wrist or forearm fractures. Given that Pujols' injury doesn't appear to be severe, I looked only at factures that caused the player to miss between 30 and 90 days.
The good news for Pujols is that minor wrist fractures do not seem to have had a lasting impact on the 18 players that had them in the last decade. The average player that suffered the injury underperformed his ZiPS projected OPS by 22 points upon his return that year, and the next season by 16 points. But considering the error bars for any projection, whether man or machine, and the extremely small sample size, it's not enough to affect the expectation by more than a point or two.
Now injuries and missed time do cause uncertainty, important when a team is considering giving one of the richest contracts in MLB history to a player. So I asked ZiPS to project Pujols twice, once with his rest-of-season projection for 2011 included and once with only half of the rest-of-season projection included (to reflect missed time). Without the injury, Pujols projects to 32 wins above replacement from 2012 to 2017. With the injury, that drops to 30 wins above replacement. The bigger concern that teams will likely have going into the offseason is whether Pujols' relatively disappointing performance -- going from an otherworldly superstar to a merely ordinary superstar -- will merit the $30 million a year that he's believed to be seeking.
Of course, there is more to this injury than its impact on Pujols' bank account. So what about the pennant chase? Assuming Pujols only misses four to six weeks, it's not really enough to drastically change the contours of the NL Central race. While the Cardinals lost Allen Craig to a fracture earlier this week, Lance Berkman is a natural choice to play first base, with a full-time Matt Holliday/Colby Rasmus/Jon Jay outfield. Pujols is obviously a much better hitter than Jay, but over four to six weeks, the difference probably won't amount to more than a win. If Berkman, currently day-to-day with nagging back and leg injuries, ends up on the DL, the Cards would begin to feel the impact. Andrew Brown would be the likely beneficiary of Berkman's plate appearances, and despite that he's having the best season of his career with Memphis, you could start to look at a loss of two wins for St. Louis. That may not sound like much, but with the Cardinals currently tied with the Brewers and only two games ahead of the Reds, the Cards will likely need those two wins to make the postseason.
Bumgarner and his record.
Spoiler [+]
On Monday, I discussed the success http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4514/ryan-vogelsong">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/4514/ryan-vogelsong')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4514" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="88">Ryan Vogelsong has had since taking a place in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sf/san-francisco-giants">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../sf/san-francisco-giants')">San Francisco Giants rotation. However, his teammate http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29949/madison-bumgarner">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../29949/madison-bumgarner')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29949" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="89">Madison Bumgarner has had his own success this year as well. The 21-year-old lefty enters his Tuesday start against the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins having put together a streak of 10 straight quality starts.
That streak, a level of consistency that owners in head-to-head formats can especially appreciate, shows that Bumgarner has pitched better than his 3-8 record would indicate.
On the surface, there doesn't appear to be a ton of growth in Bumgarner's game, especially when compared to how he finished last season, but there have been some small steps that give the southpaw a good chance to keep things up going forward.
"I just wanted to try to be more consistent [this season]," Bumgarner said. "More consistent with all of my pitches, be able to throw them to a spot, and repeat the delivery better."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesDuring his 10-game quality-start stretch, Madison Bumgarner is just 3-5.
Bumgarner's velocity has bumped up a tick this season, a good sign for a pitcher who has had to deal with questions about his radar gun numbers in each of the past two years. He now sits more consistently in the 91-94 mph range. His hard slider has become more of a weapon this year, with its tilt absolutely neutralizing left-handed hitters. While Bumgarner's overall strikeout rate remains just under seven batters per nine innings as it did last season, and his walk rate sits a notch higher at just over two and half batters per nine, his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties balloons to 9.5-to-1. Left-handed hitters are also slugging just .236 against him and have not homered all season thanks in large part to that slider.
In fact, Bumgarner has allowed just four homers total in 14 starts, a number that certainly plays a large part in putting quality starts on the board. His ground ball profile and home park help in that regard, but Bumgarner is also legitimately a tough pitcher to barrel up on.
He's been going to that slider a bit more this season at the expense of his changeup. "I've never thrown that many changeups," Bumgarner said, "but it's better than it's been before." I agree with that assessment and think he should go to it more often than he does, especially against right-handed batters, and think that perhaps a better pitch mix can provide for some further growth. I get that a pitcher in his early 20s probably doesn't want to throw what he views to be his fourth-best pitch that much (Bumgarner also throws a curve to go with the slider that he likes to use as a chase pitch), and that if he's going to get beat, he would prefer it comes on one of his primary offerings, but maybe the change's relative lack of use has caused him to not has as much feel or confidence in it as he should. He'd benefit in the long run overall, and with his strikeout rate as well, by incorporating it a bit more.
Bumgarner mentioned repeating his delivery a little better, and there are still some small strides that can be made in that area as well. When his mechanics are off, he throws a little too much across his body, going a little too much towards the first base dugout instead of staying on line with the plate. A touch more consistency with that can also boost the strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Still, fantasy owners will take what Bumgarner is doing right now just fine, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starting pitching option posting a lot of quality starts for the balance of the year. Despite the win-loss record and lack of monster strikeout totals, Bumgarner is a quietly effective option at the back of a mixed league pitching staff.
[h3]Other notes:[/h3]
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6478/nick-markakis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/6478/nick-markakis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6478" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="90">Nick Markakis' back-to-back seasons of declining homer totals and slugging percentage haven't been difficult to notice, and this year he hasn't been providing the batting average, either. I don't have any answers to the power outage other than speculation that his approach has been part of it, that he's been too aggressive in going after pitches he can make contact with rather than waiting for something he can pull strongly to right field. Sometimes having extreme contact ability can lead to a player perhaps being a little too aggressive, and pitchers will recognize that and challenge the hitter off the plate more, leading to weaker contact. That's been the book on Markakis recently.
That's the best I can come up with and it's certainly not the whole story, but Markakis still has his uses in mixed leagues and head-to-head play if he is hitting for batting average thanks to his role as a lineup fixture. I just acquired him in a deep AL-only league this weekend in what I viewed as maybe my last chance to buy low on a player who has been known to be a very streaky hitter. Although he's hitting just .265 with five homers overall, he's in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak in which he's posted 17 hits to raise his average almost 30 points. No, that Markakis that was a fantasy stud in 2007 isn't coming back, but the 27-year-old can still provide some value, even if the power never gets out of the teens range again.
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30193/freddie-freeman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30193" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="91">Freddie Freeman struggled to make adjustments in his first month in the big leagues, hitting just .217. "Obviously, pitchers [at this level] know where your weaknesses are," Freeman told me last month. "They find your holes and they don't miss their spots very often. I have some timing things in my swing, so they're pitching me in, and then soft away."
Freeman also had some mechanical issues in his stroke that involved not staying upright enough. When he's going right, Freeman uses his inside-out stroke from the left side to make hard contact up the middle and to the opposite field. However, Freeman was bending his upper half over a bit in order to try to keep his swing closed, and he would wind up having to completely fly open if he wanted to get to the pitch on the inner half, or else cut his swing off, limiting his power. His stance and swing has looked a bit more consistent recently than when I saw him in May, and his bat is staying in the hitting zone a bit longer. He's hit .314 and slugged .500 over the past month with 10 doubles and three homers, so hopefully he can stay in rhythm with his setup and batting stroke.
There are owners out there looking for an http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="92">Albert Pujols replacement this morning, and while I'd look at http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30175/justin-smoak">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30175/justin-smoak')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30175" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="93">Justin Smoak first to see if he's available in your league, Freeman has at least made himself an option as a temporary replacement in mixed league formats.
That streak, a level of consistency that owners in head-to-head formats can especially appreciate, shows that Bumgarner has pitched better than his 3-8 record would indicate.
On the surface, there doesn't appear to be a ton of growth in Bumgarner's game, especially when compared to how he finished last season, but there have been some small steps that give the southpaw a good chance to keep things up going forward.
"I just wanted to try to be more consistent [this season]," Bumgarner said. "More consistent with all of my pitches, be able to throw them to a spot, and repeat the delivery better."
[+] Enlarge
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesDuring his 10-game quality-start stretch, Madison Bumgarner is just 3-5.
Bumgarner's velocity has bumped up a tick this season, a good sign for a pitcher who has had to deal with questions about his radar gun numbers in each of the past two years. He now sits more consistently in the 91-94 mph range. His hard slider has become more of a weapon this year, with its tilt absolutely neutralizing left-handed hitters. While Bumgarner's overall strikeout rate remains just under seven batters per nine innings as it did last season, and his walk rate sits a notch higher at just over two and half batters per nine, his strikeout-to-walk ratio against lefties balloons to 9.5-to-1. Left-handed hitters are also slugging just .236 against him and have not homered all season thanks in large part to that slider.
In fact, Bumgarner has allowed just four homers total in 14 starts, a number that certainly plays a large part in putting quality starts on the board. His ground ball profile and home park help in that regard, but Bumgarner is also legitimately a tough pitcher to barrel up on.
He's been going to that slider a bit more this season at the expense of his changeup. "I've never thrown that many changeups," Bumgarner said, "but it's better than it's been before." I agree with that assessment and think he should go to it more often than he does, especially against right-handed batters, and think that perhaps a better pitch mix can provide for some further growth. I get that a pitcher in his early 20s probably doesn't want to throw what he views to be his fourth-best pitch that much (Bumgarner also throws a curve to go with the slider that he likes to use as a chase pitch), and that if he's going to get beat, he would prefer it comes on one of his primary offerings, but maybe the change's relative lack of use has caused him to not has as much feel or confidence in it as he should. He'd benefit in the long run overall, and with his strikeout rate as well, by incorporating it a bit more.
Bumgarner mentioned repeating his delivery a little better, and there are still some small strides that can be made in that area as well. When his mechanics are off, he throws a little too much across his body, going a little too much towards the first base dugout instead of staying on line with the plate. A touch more consistency with that can also boost the strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Still, fantasy owners will take what Bumgarner is doing right now just fine, and I expect him to continue to be a solid starting pitching option posting a lot of quality starts for the balance of the year. Despite the win-loss record and lack of monster strikeout totals, Bumgarner is a quietly effective option at the back of a mixed league pitching staff.
[h3]Other notes:[/h3]
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6478/nick-markakis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/6478/nick-markakis')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6478" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="90">Nick Markakis' back-to-back seasons of declining homer totals and slugging percentage haven't been difficult to notice, and this year he hasn't been providing the batting average, either. I don't have any answers to the power outage other than speculation that his approach has been part of it, that he's been too aggressive in going after pitches he can make contact with rather than waiting for something he can pull strongly to right field. Sometimes having extreme contact ability can lead to a player perhaps being a little too aggressive, and pitchers will recognize that and challenge the hitter off the plate more, leading to weaker contact. That's been the book on Markakis recently.
That's the best I can come up with and it's certainly not the whole story, but Markakis still has his uses in mixed leagues and head-to-head play if he is hitting for batting average thanks to his role as a lineup fixture. I just acquired him in a deep AL-only league this weekend in what I viewed as maybe my last chance to buy low on a player who has been known to be a very streaky hitter. Although he's hitting just .265 with five homers overall, he's in the midst of a 10-game hitting streak in which he's posted 17 hits to raise his average almost 30 points. No, that Markakis that was a fantasy stud in 2007 isn't coming back, but the 27-year-old can still provide some value, even if the power never gets out of the teens range again.
• http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30193/freddie-freeman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/30193/freddie-freeman')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30193" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="91">Freddie Freeman struggled to make adjustments in his first month in the big leagues, hitting just .217. "Obviously, pitchers [at this level] know where your weaknesses are," Freeman told me last month. "They find your holes and they don't miss their spots very often. I have some timing things in my swing, so they're pitching me in, and then soft away."
Freeman also had some mechanical issues in his stroke that involved not staying upright enough. When he's going right, Freeman uses his inside-out stroke from the left side to make hard contact up the middle and to the opposite field. However, Freeman was bending his upper half over a bit in order to try to keep his swing closed, and he would wind up having to completely fly open if he wanted to get to the pitch on the inner half, or else cut his swing off, limiting his power. His stance and swing has looked a bit more consistent recently than when I saw him in May, and his bat is staying in the hitting zone a bit longer. He's hit .314 and slugged .500 over the past month with 10 doubles and three homers, so hopefully he can stay in rhythm with his setup and batting stroke.
There are owners out there looking for an http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4574/albert-pujols">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/4574/albert-pujols')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4574" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="92">Albert Pujols replacement this morning, and while I'd look at http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30175/justin-smoak">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30175/justin-smoak')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" tab="null" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30175" instance="_ppc" jQuery1308671155962="93">Justin Smoak first to see if he's available in your league, Freeman has at least made himself an option as a temporary replacement in mixed league formats.
Best offseason pick-ups.
Spoiler [+]
Cliff Lee and Adrian Gonzalez share two things in common: They're two of the hottest players in baseball, and they play for the two best teams in the majors.
But did they make the cut for our top offseason pickups list? Using a combination of dollars spent, expectations and tangible results, we picked a top five, using five different categories of acquisitions. With more than half the season left, and in some cases four or five years to go in a given contract, these rankings are likely to change over time. But for now, these are the best of the best.
Best big-ticket signing: Cliff Lee
He's so good, he's swayed two pennant races in two different leagues. Had Lee accepted the Yankees' offer (reportedly the highest made by any team), you could probably nudge New York ahead of Boston in the American League East standings. Instead, the Phillies gained a third ace (sorry, Roy Oswalt, you're not that guy anymore) and now possess two of the three best left-handed starters in the game in Lee and Cole Hamels.
A five-year contract for any pitcher comes fraught with risk. But after what looked like a shaky start (Lee's ERA and record lagged behind his peers at first), he's caught fire: 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA, 21 strikeouts and five walks in his last three starts. Only all-world teammate Roy Halladay has more strikeouts than Lee's 111, and Lee ranks fifth in baseball in fielding independent pitching at 2.57, with Halladay and Hamels ranked 1-2. There is no scenario in which paying your third-best starter $120 million makes even a modicum of sense … except this one.
Best midlevel signing: Lance Berkman
I was wrong. I (and numerous other baseball writers) thought paying a 35-year-old Berkman $8 million this year was a reach, and one with little upside. All he's done so far is hit .309/.423/.604, ranking second in the National League in on-base percentage and third in slugging, while playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors.
It's easy to see now where we went wrong. In an open market where it costs about $5 million to buy one win worth of value, $8 million represents a minor risk, especially when it's only a one-year deal. Also, writing a formerly successful player off after one or two bad seasons due to age or injury concerns can prove to be a bad idea, more often than we'd care to admit.
Best bargain signing: Bartolo Colon
How did a 38-year-old Colon -- having not pitched at all in the majors last year and having not managed even 100 innings pitched in a season since 2005 -- become a solid consolation prize for whiffing on Lee? Both Colon and the antiaging doctor who treated his thought-to-be-scragged right arm have come under tremendous scrutiny, with reporters suspicious of performance-enhancing drug use. Maybe it's the era in which we live, or just that we don't trust what we don't understand. Either way, Colon's successful stem cell therapy treatment has fueled a surge in demand for similar procedures among other struggling and rehabbing pitchers.
And why not? Colon's current hamstring-strain-induced DL stint notwithstanding, the corpulent right-hander sports a 4-1 strikeout-walk rate, is on pace for the second-highest strikeout rate of his career and has been a worthy No. 2 starter for a rotation that was decimated with Andy Pettitte's retirement, Lee's snub and Phil Hughes' arm woes. Even if Colon never pitches another inning for the Yankees, getting him on a minor league deal with a $900,000 big league salary qualifies as grand larceny.
Best big-ticket trade acquisition: Adrian Gonzalez
The best deals aren't always the ones that you get for 10 cents on the dollar. When the Red Sox acquired Gonzalez to ostensibly replace the very productive Adrian Beltre, they gave up three premium prospects in Casey Kelly, Raymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo's already cracked the Padres' roster and replaced Gonzalez at first base after destroying Triple-A pitching for two months, and could be a future All-Star.
Still, no Sox fan in his right mind could complain about the one that got away, given the one they got: Gonzalez ranks third among all position players in wins above replacement, hitting .348/.403/.607 and playing his usual stellar defense. David Ortiz and Josh Beckett have regained their superstar form of old, and Boston's roster is stuffed with championship-caliber talent. But Gonzalez is the most valuable member of the Red Sox and the best player in the American League not named Jose Bautista.
Best out-of-nowhere acquisition: Philip Humber/Ryan Vogelsong (tie)
Colon might be putting up his first good season in six years, but he's still a former All-Star and Cy Young winner. Vogelsong and Humber, on the other hand, seemed destined to remain painful memories of superstar trades gone wrong.
Humber was supposed to be a big piece in the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets three years ago. Two teams later, Humber has finally broken through with the White Sox, using pinpoint control (his 2.08 BB/9 IP rate ranks ninth in the AL, just behind Colon) and some welcome luck on balls in play to work his way into a deep and talented Chicago rotation. Vogelsong was a key ingredient in the Giants' trade for Jason Schmidt 10 years ago. A month shy of his 34th birthday, he wields a 3-1 strikeout-walk rate and a 1.92 ERA that would rank second only to Beckett if Vogelsong didn't just miss the innings pitched threshold for qualified starters. On a defending champion Giants team shackled with a terrible offense, Vogelsong has been the unsung hero on a stacked pitching staff.
The best part for their respective teams? In baseball terms, Humber and Vogelsong are making the combined equivalent of a ham sandwich -- albeit one with fancy mustard.
But did they make the cut for our top offseason pickups list? Using a combination of dollars spent, expectations and tangible results, we picked a top five, using five different categories of acquisitions. With more than half the season left, and in some cases four or five years to go in a given contract, these rankings are likely to change over time. But for now, these are the best of the best.
Best big-ticket signing: Cliff Lee
He's so good, he's swayed two pennant races in two different leagues. Had Lee accepted the Yankees' offer (reportedly the highest made by any team), you could probably nudge New York ahead of Boston in the American League East standings. Instead, the Phillies gained a third ace (sorry, Roy Oswalt, you're not that guy anymore) and now possess two of the three best left-handed starters in the game in Lee and Cole Hamels.
A five-year contract for any pitcher comes fraught with risk. But after what looked like a shaky start (Lee's ERA and record lagged behind his peers at first), he's caught fire: 3-0 with a 0.38 ERA, 21 strikeouts and five walks in his last three starts. Only all-world teammate Roy Halladay has more strikeouts than Lee's 111, and Lee ranks fifth in baseball in fielding independent pitching at 2.57, with Halladay and Hamels ranked 1-2. There is no scenario in which paying your third-best starter $120 million makes even a modicum of sense … except this one.
Best midlevel signing: Lance Berkman
I was wrong. I (and numerous other baseball writers) thought paying a 35-year-old Berkman $8 million this year was a reach, and one with little upside. All he's done so far is hit .309/.423/.604, ranking second in the National League in on-base percentage and third in slugging, while playing in one of the worst hitters' parks in the majors.
It's easy to see now where we went wrong. In an open market where it costs about $5 million to buy one win worth of value, $8 million represents a minor risk, especially when it's only a one-year deal. Also, writing a formerly successful player off after one or two bad seasons due to age or injury concerns can prove to be a bad idea, more often than we'd care to admit.
Best bargain signing: Bartolo Colon
How did a 38-year-old Colon -- having not pitched at all in the majors last year and having not managed even 100 innings pitched in a season since 2005 -- become a solid consolation prize for whiffing on Lee? Both Colon and the antiaging doctor who treated his thought-to-be-scragged right arm have come under tremendous scrutiny, with reporters suspicious of performance-enhancing drug use. Maybe it's the era in which we live, or just that we don't trust what we don't understand. Either way, Colon's successful stem cell therapy treatment has fueled a surge in demand for similar procedures among other struggling and rehabbing pitchers.
And why not? Colon's current hamstring-strain-induced DL stint notwithstanding, the corpulent right-hander sports a 4-1 strikeout-walk rate, is on pace for the second-highest strikeout rate of his career and has been a worthy No. 2 starter for a rotation that was decimated with Andy Pettitte's retirement, Lee's snub and Phil Hughes' arm woes. Even if Colon never pitches another inning for the Yankees, getting him on a minor league deal with a $900,000 big league salary qualifies as grand larceny.
Best big-ticket trade acquisition: Adrian Gonzalez
The best deals aren't always the ones that you get for 10 cents on the dollar. When the Red Sox acquired Gonzalez to ostensibly replace the very productive Adrian Beltre, they gave up three premium prospects in Casey Kelly, Raymond Fuentes and Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo's already cracked the Padres' roster and replaced Gonzalez at first base after destroying Triple-A pitching for two months, and could be a future All-Star.
Still, no Sox fan in his right mind could complain about the one that got away, given the one they got: Gonzalez ranks third among all position players in wins above replacement, hitting .348/.403/.607 and playing his usual stellar defense. David Ortiz and Josh Beckett have regained their superstar form of old, and Boston's roster is stuffed with championship-caliber talent. But Gonzalez is the most valuable member of the Red Sox and the best player in the American League not named Jose Bautista.
Best out-of-nowhere acquisition: Philip Humber/Ryan Vogelsong (tie)
Colon might be putting up his first good season in six years, but he's still a former All-Star and Cy Young winner. Vogelsong and Humber, on the other hand, seemed destined to remain painful memories of superstar trades gone wrong.
Humber was supposed to be a big piece in the trade that sent Johan Santana to the Mets three years ago. Two teams later, Humber has finally broken through with the White Sox, using pinpoint control (his 2.08 BB/9 IP rate ranks ninth in the AL, just behind Colon) and some welcome luck on balls in play to work his way into a deep and talented Chicago rotation. Vogelsong was a key ingredient in the Giants' trade for Jason Schmidt 10 years ago. A month shy of his 34th birthday, he wields a 3-1 strikeout-walk rate and a 1.92 ERA that would rank second only to Beckett if Vogelsong didn't just miss the innings pitched threshold for qualified starters. On a defending champion Giants team shackled with a terrible offense, Vogelsong has been the unsung hero on a stacked pitching staff.
The best part for their respective teams? In baseball terms, Humber and Vogelsong are making the combined equivalent of a ham sandwich -- albeit one with fancy mustard.
- 10,371
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- Jan 3, 2011
Joe Maddon is a ****.
- 10,371
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- Jan 3, 2011
Joe Maddon is a ****.
- 10,371
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- Jan 3, 2011
You know, I don't get into historical discussions much, but as I'm sitting here watching the game... anybody who thinks Todd Helton isn't a Hall of Famer is out of their mind.
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- Jan 3, 2011
You know, I don't get into historical discussions much, but as I'm sitting here watching the game... anybody who thinks Todd Helton isn't a Hall of Famer is out of their mind.
- 4,201
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- Nov 18, 2010
^Who doesn't believe he is, though?
Wieters
Such a disappointment. I'd hoped to see definitive strides this season at the very least, but he hasn't developed at all offensively. 1000 ABs, and I have yet to see a hint of the hitter he was projected to be.
Wieters
- 4,201
- 141
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- Nov 18, 2010
^Who doesn't believe he is, though?
Wieters
Such a disappointment. I'd hoped to see definitive strides this season at the very least, but he hasn't developed at all offensively. 1000 ABs, and I have yet to see a hint of the hitter he was projected to be.
Wieters
Him and Larry Walker are the only ones who played big time in Coors that I'd probably give the nod to. I'm probably not as sold on Helton as you are though. If you put Helton in, do you put Paul Konerko as well? Two 1B who you probably couldn't say weren't the best 1B of any particular season but have always been consistent and put up solid numbers. Although, you could make the case for Helton in 2000 over Giambi.
Him and Larry Walker are the only ones who played big time in Coors that I'd probably give the nod to. I'm probably not as sold on Helton as you are though. If you put Helton in, do you put Paul Konerko as well? Two 1B who you probably couldn't say weren't the best 1B of any particular season but have always been consistent and put up solid numbers. Although, you could make the case for Helton in 2000 over Giambi.
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- Nov 18, 2007
Im curious who you think was a better first baseman than Helton in 2000 and 2001 Pro.
Spoiler [+]
2000: .372 avg, 42 hr, 147 rbi, 138 runs
2001: .336 avg, 49 hr, 146 rbi, 132 runs, gold glove
2001: .336 avg, 49 hr, 146 rbi, 132 runs, gold glove
- 27,978
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- Joined
- Nov 18, 2007
Im curious who you think was a better first baseman than Helton in 2000 and 2001 Pro.
Spoiler [+]
2000: .372 avg, 42 hr, 147 rbi, 138 runs
2001: .336 avg, 49 hr, 146 rbi, 132 runs, gold glove
2001: .336 avg, 49 hr, 146 rbi, 132 runs, gold glove
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