Originally Posted by WearinTheFourFive
^Thats sick! I've only been once, back in 06 (5 years ago??). After I get out of school and whatnot, I want to make it a yearly trip.
Originally Posted by CincoSeisDos
Originally Posted by CincoSeisDos
I agree.
I agree.
[/h3][h3]Young on first[/h3]
1:48PM ET
[h5]Michael Young | Rangers [/h5]
Michael Young will start at first base some this spring, including Monday versus the Kansas City Royals. This may be where Young gets most of his time, so this could be more like an audition than just a chance to gain experience.
He admits he's never played a game at first at any level, and that he'll use the glove of Chris Davis until he breaks in his own, but with the addition of Adrian Beltre, Young's versatility is what will earn him at-bats.
Beltre's sore calf, however, could present Young with some chances to play third this spring, and if the injury lingers into the regular season, Young is likely to be the choice to fill in.
He could also DH some, which means he'll battle Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland for playing time, as long as Beltre is healthy.
There is still a chance that the Rangers trade Young, and we wonder if Philly might become interested should Chase Utley's patellar tendonitis continue to give him problems.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Beltran to play right field[/h3]
1:14PM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
Carlos Beltran will play right field this season, according to multiple reports, including Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
The move may help Beltran stay healthy, and it may help the Mets put forth their best defensive unit, despite Beltran being a plus defender in center when he's healthy. Angel Pagan is fully capable by all accounts.
A healthy Beltran may be easy trade bait, too, and if Pagan proves he's a strong defender playing center field regularly, his trade value rises as well -- not that the Mets are making the move simply to trade away both players.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Where does Joyce fit?[/h3]
1:03PM ET
[h5]Matt Joyce | Rays [/h5]
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Matt Joyce believes he's ready for an everyday gig, and the club agrees, writes Joe Smith. But with the addition of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, Joyce will likely be relegated to a reserve or platoon type role in 2011.
Smith notes that when Ben Zobrist, penciled in as the starting right fielder, helps out at first or second base, Joyce can play right field. He can also fill in for Damon in left when the veteran takes a rest or gets a turn as the DH.
Manager Joe Maddon has the luxury of using the hot bat, too, as the extra pieces fit well, thanks in large part to Zobrist's verstility.
Joyce does not have experience at first base, so unless he receives time there this spring will likely play the corner outfield spots, DH and see time in a pinch-hitting role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Castillo takes the lead[/h3]
12:25PM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: Kevin Burkhardt of SNY.com tweets that it appears Luis Castillo is at the front of the race in the second base competition. Castillo is the mos accomplished of the group and has a defensive advantage over all but one, Ruben Rejada, who is likely to head to Buffalo to play shortstop.
...
UPDATE: Despite earlier statements and indications by the club that Ruben Tejada would start the 2011 season as the starting shortstop in Triple-A Buffalo, skipper Terry Collins said Thursday that Tejada is in the mix for the open job at second base, tweets Steve Popper.
Popper also adds that Chin-lung Hu and perhaps Felix Millan will also get a look, as will Justin Turner. But Tejada's inclusion could be trouble for Eamus, Murphy and Castillo because the kid is probably the best fielder of the three, and may not be close.
...
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-metsNew York Mets expect a wide-open competition for the second base job this spring, with as many as five players getting consideration, including http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29200Daniel Murphy, a converted outfielder who is trying to bounce back from a serious knee injury.
At this stage, Murphy's reputation is more with his bat than with his glove, and that could help his chances since new manager Terry Collins views second base as an offensive position.
Collins' comment bodes well for Murphy and Brad Emaus, who are view first as offensive players. Incumbent Luis Castillo, Luis Rodriguez and Nick Evans also are in the second base mix.
Collins was disappointed that Castillo did not arrive to camp until Sunday, but it turns out that Castillo had a good excuse.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Snider's progress[/h3]
12:16PM ET
[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Snider took swings versus live pitching Sunday, tweets Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, and could play in games as early as this week. With Snider back, the Blue Jays will have options that include moving Jose Bautista to third base in certain matchups.
...
It's early, quite early, but Travis Snider's side injury, while minor, has the potential to linger and impact the club's Opening Day roster. The former first-round pick tweaked the rib area playing golf last week, and the Jays are taking the cautious approach.
But Snider has yet to be cleared for baseball activities, and if the injury extends too far into March, manager John Farrell may have to start thinking about a short-term stop-gap in left field. Juan Rivera and Adam Lind come to mind, and though neither are considered good defenders, both can produce at the plate.
Scott Podsednik could be the easy choice, however, at least versus right-handed pitching. Such an alignment would give the club two above-average defenders in the outfield -- Rajai Davis in center and Podsednik in left -- and Jose Bautista isn't exactly ground Tofurkey in right, either.
Podsednik, however, is dealing with an injury of his own.
It's possible that Snider could be used in a DH role to ease back into the swing of things, but the swing itself may be the biggest test.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Missed opportunity for Perez[/h3]
11:17AM ET
[h5]Oliver Perez | Mets [/h5]
Oliver Perez practiced a scorched earth policy last season in Queens, frustrating his teammates as well as New York Mets fans with an 0-5 record and a 6.80 ERA in 17 games.
Seeking a fresh start under new manager Terry Collins. Perez asked to be given a chance to start and the Mets obliged.
Perez did little to help his chances Sunday with a shaky outing against the Braves in which he allowed four runs in two innings. Perez must produce in Grapefruit League play or GM Sandy Alderson has vowed to cut him, reports Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger.
Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets Monday morning that Perez is a candidate only for the bullpen and the odds are 20-1 against that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Some RF duty for Wigginton[/h3]
11:05AM ET
[h5]Ty Wigginton | Rockies [/h5]
Ty Wigginton has built himself a solid major league resume with his versatility. The 33-year-old has started games at six different positions, but just five of those outings in a nine-year career have been in right field.
That is where the 33-year-old Wigginton could see considerable action this season for the Rockies, reports Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post.
The Rockies will no longer move Carlos Gonzalez around the outfield, deciding instead to move him permanently to left field. Wigginton, signed to a two-year deal in the offseason, will get some outfield starts in right while also giving Todd Helton an occasional day off at first base.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Utley's knee an issue?[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Chase Utley | Phillies [/h5]
The calendar hasn't even turned to March, so the Philadelphia Phillies have every reason to be extra cautious with second baseman Chase Utley, who was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis in his right knee after undergoing an MRI on Saturday.
Utley is still taking batting practice, but has yet to appear in a spring game. Neither Utley or general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. are calling the injury "serious," but it is clearly a red flag for a star player whose batting average and OBP has declined for three straight seasons.
If the injury lingers, the Phillies could ask for infield help in any possible trade for fifth starter Joe Blanton. Wilson Valdez is the backup infielder and could see more playing time if the Phillies try to rest Utley more during the season.
Non-roster invitees Pete Orr, Robb Quinlan and Josh Barfield may also have a shot, and Placido Polanco could slide over to second base.
Our Buster Olney says this is an issue that should be watched closely:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Utley's latest ailment
[/h3][h3]Young on first[/h3]
1:48PM ET
[h5]Michael Young | Rangers [/h5]
Michael Young will start at first base some this spring, including Monday versus the Kansas City Royals. This may be where Young gets most of his time, so this could be more like an audition than just a chance to gain experience.
He admits he's never played a game at first at any level, and that he'll use the glove of Chris Davis until he breaks in his own, but with the addition of Adrian Beltre, Young's versatility is what will earn him at-bats.
Beltre's sore calf, however, could present Young with some chances to play third this spring, and if the injury lingers into the regular season, Young is likely to be the choice to fill in.
He could also DH some, which means he'll battle Mike Napoli and Mitch Moreland for playing time, as long as Beltre is healthy.
There is still a chance that the Rangers trade Young, and we wonder if Philly might become interested should Chase Utley's patellar tendonitis continue to give him problems.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Beltran to play right field[/h3]
1:14PM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
Carlos Beltran will play right field this season, according to multiple reports, including Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com.
The move may help Beltran stay healthy, and it may help the Mets put forth their best defensive unit, despite Beltran being a plus defender in center when he's healthy. Angel Pagan is fully capable by all accounts.
A healthy Beltran may be easy trade bait, too, and if Pagan proves he's a strong defender playing center field regularly, his trade value rises as well -- not that the Mets are making the move simply to trade away both players.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Where does Joyce fit?[/h3]
1:03PM ET
[h5]Matt Joyce | Rays [/h5]
Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Matt Joyce believes he's ready for an everyday gig, and the club agrees, writes Joe Smith. But with the addition of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon, Joyce will likely be relegated to a reserve or platoon type role in 2011.
Smith notes that when Ben Zobrist, penciled in as the starting right fielder, helps out at first or second base, Joyce can play right field. He can also fill in for Damon in left when the veteran takes a rest or gets a turn as the DH.
Manager Joe Maddon has the luxury of using the hot bat, too, as the extra pieces fit well, thanks in large part to Zobrist's verstility.
Joyce does not have experience at first base, so unless he receives time there this spring will likely play the corner outfield spots, DH and see time in a pinch-hitting role.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Castillo takes the lead[/h3]
12:25PM ET
[h5]New York Mets [/h5]
UPDATE: Kevin Burkhardt of SNY.com tweets that it appears Luis Castillo is at the front of the race in the second base competition. Castillo is the mos accomplished of the group and has a defensive advantage over all but one, Ruben Rejada, who is likely to head to Buffalo to play shortstop.
...
UPDATE: Despite earlier statements and indications by the club that Ruben Tejada would start the 2011 season as the starting shortstop in Triple-A Buffalo, skipper Terry Collins said Thursday that Tejada is in the mix for the open job at second base, tweets Steve Popper.
Popper also adds that Chin-lung Hu and perhaps Felix Millan will also get a look, as will Justin Turner. But Tejada's inclusion could be trouble for Eamus, Murphy and Castillo because the kid is probably the best fielder of the three, and may not be close.
...
The http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-metsNew York Mets expect a wide-open competition for the second base job this spring, with as many as five players getting consideration, including http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=29200Daniel Murphy, a converted outfielder who is trying to bounce back from a serious knee injury.
At this stage, Murphy's reputation is more with his bat than with his glove, and that could help his chances since new manager Terry Collins views second base as an offensive position.
Collins' comment bodes well for Murphy and Brad Emaus, who are view first as offensive players. Incumbent Luis Castillo, Luis Rodriguez and Nick Evans also are in the second base mix.
Collins was disappointed that Castillo did not arrive to camp until Sunday, but it turns out that Castillo had a good excuse.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Snider's progress[/h3]
12:16PM ET
[h5]Toronto Blue Jays [/h5]
UPDATE: Snider took swings versus live pitching Sunday, tweets Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star, and could play in games as early as this week. With Snider back, the Blue Jays will have options that include moving Jose Bautista to third base in certain matchups.
...
It's early, quite early, but Travis Snider's side injury, while minor, has the potential to linger and impact the club's Opening Day roster. The former first-round pick tweaked the rib area playing golf last week, and the Jays are taking the cautious approach.
But Snider has yet to be cleared for baseball activities, and if the injury extends too far into March, manager John Farrell may have to start thinking about a short-term stop-gap in left field. Juan Rivera and Adam Lind come to mind, and though neither are considered good defenders, both can produce at the plate.
Scott Podsednik could be the easy choice, however, at least versus right-handed pitching. Such an alignment would give the club two above-average defenders in the outfield -- Rajai Davis in center and Podsednik in left -- and Jose Bautista isn't exactly ground Tofurkey in right, either.
Podsednik, however, is dealing with an injury of his own.
It's possible that Snider could be used in a DH role to ease back into the swing of things, but the swing itself may be the biggest test.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Missed opportunity for Perez[/h3]
11:17AM ET
[h5]Oliver Perez | Mets [/h5]
Oliver Perez practiced a scorched earth policy last season in Queens, frustrating his teammates as well as New York Mets fans with an 0-5 record and a 6.80 ERA in 17 games.
Seeking a fresh start under new manager Terry Collins. Perez asked to be given a chance to start and the Mets obliged.
Perez did little to help his chances Sunday with a shaky outing against the Braves in which he allowed four runs in two innings. Perez must produce in Grapefruit League play or GM Sandy Alderson has vowed to cut him, reports Andy McCullough of the Star Ledger.
Jon Heyman of SI.com tweets Monday morning that Perez is a candidate only for the bullpen and the odds are 20-1 against that.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Some RF duty for Wigginton[/h3]
11:05AM ET
[h5]Ty Wigginton | Rockies [/h5]
Ty Wigginton has built himself a solid major league resume with his versatility. The 33-year-old has started games at six different positions, but just five of those outings in a nine-year career have been in right field.
That is where the 33-year-old Wigginton could see considerable action this season for the Rockies, reports Jim Armstrong of the Denver Post.
The Rockies will no longer move Carlos Gonzalez around the outfield, deciding instead to move him permanently to left field. Wigginton, signed to a two-year deal in the offseason, will get some outfield starts in right while also giving Todd Helton an occasional day off at first base.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]Utley's knee an issue?[/h3]
10:45AM ET
[h5]Chase Utley | Phillies [/h5]
The calendar hasn't even turned to March, so the Philadelphia Phillies have every reason to be extra cautious with second baseman Chase Utley, who was diagnosed with patellar tendinitis in his right knee after undergoing an MRI on Saturday.
Utley is still taking batting practice, but has yet to appear in a spring game. Neither Utley or general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. are calling the injury "serious," but it is clearly a red flag for a star player whose batting average and OBP has declined for three straight seasons.
If the injury lingers, the Phillies could ask for infield help in any possible trade for fifth starter Joe Blanton. Wilson Valdez is the backup infielder and could see more playing time if the Phillies try to rest Utley more during the season.
Non-roster invitees Pete Orr, Robb Quinlan and Josh Barfield may also have a shot, and Placido Polanco could slide over to second base.
Our Buster Olney says this is an issue that should be watched closely:
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Utley's latest ailment
It’s not exactly high times to be a Dodgers fan right now. Sure, the San Francisco Giants won the World Series, but most of the bitterness of the 2010 season is directed at the divorce battle between Frank and Jamie McCourt. General Manager Ned Colletti hasn’t exactlybeen given the complete freedom to make whatever transactions necessary for the good of the big league ballclub, being hamstrung by financial constraints and all. But he was able to tack on to the starting rotation of homegrown Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley by re-signing Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly, while adding Jon Garland, giving L.A.’s rotation a well-rounded staff.
But if you think the additions and re-additions of Jay Gibbons, Marcus Thames, Juan Uribe, and Rod Barajas will bolster an offense with several holes, think again. A left field and backstop sans Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin are the biggest questions for the boys of Chavez Ravine. A lesser question that will be just as publicized is the performance of current closer Jonathan Broxton, backed by an eclectic but mostly capable bullpen. The single most important X-factor that first-year manager Don Mattingly could use? A Matt Kemp revitalization, whose upside could be the difference between a third-place NL West team and a playoff contender.
The Projected Starting Lineup
1. SS Rafael Furcal
2. 3B Casey Blake
3. RF Andre Ethier
4. CF Matt Kemp
5. 1B James Loney
6. 2B Juan Uribe
7. LF Jay Gibbons / Marcus Thames / Tony Gwynn Jr.
8. C Rod Barajas
A few years ago, the top five of this lineup looked unmatched when set up against the normally pitching-heavy NL West. The upside for the 3-4-5 hitters Ethier-Kemp-Loney is still there, but the new additions in the rest of the lineup don’t instill confidence into an offense that was 11th in runs scored and 15th in home runs in the NL last season. The health of Rafael Furcal and the age of Casey Blake are concerns. For Furcal, he hit a solid .300/.366/.460 at the top of the lineup, but the 33-year-old just needs to stay healthy as the Dodgers’ middle infield bench would be a downgrade. Though 41 doubles is encouraging, James Loney was supposed to be a solid power-hitting first baseman by now, and his glovework won’t make up for his lack of offense if he continues hitting .267/.329/.395. Andre Ethier began the season as a potential Triple Crown candidate before he broke his finger and should continue to be the heart of this lineup. I’d expand on my love-hate relationship with Kemp’s superstar talent combined with underwhelming production, but we’ll get to that in a moment.
In a vacuum, to throw a three-year, $21 million contract at Juan Uribe is only slightly forgivable if you look past his low OBP and toward his power as he can field shortstop well should Furcal go down. He should be able to handle his less natural position at second base, and overall, Uribe is a slight upgrade from Ryan Theriot. The situations in left field and catcher, however, are somewhere between bewildering and inexcusable. Somehow, Rod Barajas forked $3.25 million from the Dodgers after compiling a .310 wOBA, 10th among NL catchers with at least 300 PA. A.J. Ellis would have been a cost-effective alternative with better plate discipline and albeit no power. The left field debacle will be something to watch this spring training. Jay Gibbons is the slight favorite, while Marcus Thames, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Xavier Paul should all be in the mix.
The Pitching Staff
LHP Clayton Kershaw
RHP Chad Billingsley
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RHP Jon Garland
RHP Jonathan Broxton
LHP Hong-Chih Kuo
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Kenley Jansen
LHP Ron Mahay
RHP Ramon Troncoso
RHP Blake Hawksworth
One of the big questions early in the Dodgers’ offseason was how the rotation would turn out. Once you get past that the team was never really in the mix for a Cliff Lee or a Zack Greinke, give credit to the front office for bringing back Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly while adding Jon Garland. This rotation leads off with the left-handed Clayton Kershaw and right-handed Chad Billingsley, both achieving about a 3.00 FIP attributed to greatly improved control and walk rates while still maintaining low home-runs-allowed rates (both on the road and at home). Kershaw hasn’t exactly reached superstar ace status just yet, but the sky is the ceiling for the 23-year-old entering his fourth MLB season. Unfairly criticized at times, Billingsley, while not an ace, will give the Dodgers 200 innings as a solid No.2.
The rest of the rotation in Lilly, Kuroda and Garland brings a solid back-end. Lilly was able to make it work as a fly-ball pitcher at Wrigley Field for a few years and should continue to do so over a full season at Dodger Stadium. Kuroda and Garland are both more ground ball pitchers than anything — they and the infield defense will be helped by the addition of Uribe and a full season of Furcal. But the most value that the back-end of the rotation could bring is health and consistency. All three pitchers, particularly Lilly and Garland, should bring 180-200 innings each. Still, if any of them are to go down, the hope is that Vicente Padilla will be back in the mix after he recovers from surgery by May.
Jonathan Broxton may have gotten the most flack out of any Los Angeles player. The fastball speed issues and the tendency for former manager Joe Torre to overwork Broxton to an inconsistent schedule are factors. Even after all that, Broxton should still start out in the closer role and was able to strike out 10.54 batters per 9 innings. Hong-Chih Kuo serves as one of the best non-closer relievers in the league, somewhat like a left-handed Broxton. His high K rates and low walk rates suggest that he’s a potential Broxton replacement, but being left-handed and elbow injury-prone doesn’t make this scenario ideal. Colletti signed Matt Guerrier to a three-year deal, whose ability to appear in many games over a season will be useful for Mattingly to handle. Kenley Jansen, Ramon Troncoso, and Blake Hawksworth are all young and capable arms, with Jansen being a dark horse future closer candidate. The bullpen will move on without Ronald Belisario — his character and visa issues have pushed their limits.
Key Player
The development and success of Matt Kemp, I would argue, is the most important for the success of the Dodgers. His baserunning gaffes continued, highlighted by getting caught stealing 15 times on 34 tries. His center field play was absolutely atrocious in 2010. Sure, he led the team with 28 HRs and 89 RBIs, but that’s not enough of an excuse to hit .249/.310/.450 for a kid with as much upside as Kemp has. His strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and he consistently whiffed on fastballs that he used to crush. Take a look at Kemp’s swinging strike percentage against fastball height:
The lines represent the top (right on the graph) and bottom (left) of the rulebook strike zone while the grey line shows the league average. In 2009, Kemp whiffed on slightly more fastballs than the average hitter no matter the pitch height. But in 2010, Kemp swung and missed at many more fastballs, particularly high fastballs in the zone.
For more literature on what happened to Kemp, feel free to revisit my Rihanna-less posts on Kemp’s struggles against the fastball here and here. For an in-depth look at his mechanics, I will point you to Chad Moriyama’s post here.
Summary
The Dodgers should expect improvement from a year ago with new additions to the starting rotation. Still, a lot will have to go right for the offense if they want to offset the well below-average 7-8-9 hitting enough to hit well against NL pitching. Kemp will be a key player to watch to turn around his lackadaisical defense — I am harsh but only because the kid has the potential to hit .300/.375/.500. L.A.’s rotation, though, I would pit up against any in the NL West besides the Giants. Kershaw can develop into a true ace and Lilly/Kuroda/Garland provide a good back-end. The bullpen is led once again by Broxton and should he continue to struggle, the arms of Kuo, Guerrier, and Jansen could step in. Furcal’s health, Blake’s age, the Left Field (Pavilion)- these other pieces will have to fall toward the Dodgers’ way if the team wants to challenge the Giants for the NL West crown in 2011.
Of the 41 seasons the Padres have enjoyed, last season may have been the most painful. Finding new ways to show the standings would only serve to find new ways to visually represent the excruciatingly painful time that was last September in San Diego. But if you’re a sucker for punishment, Chris Spurlock at Beyond the Box Score obliges. Now that the team has finally traded away their slugging first baseman and lost their (only?) big bat, they are in rebuild mode, right? Maybe, except that we’ve had that thought before.
The Starting Nine
RF Will Venable* / Aaron Cunningham
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Chase Headley^
LF Ryan Ludwick
1B Brad Hawpe* / Jorge Cantu
CF Cameron Maybin
SS Jason Bartlett
C Nick Hundley
*lefty batter, ^switch-hitter
San Diego scored the fewest runs in the division (fourth-worst in the National League) with Adrian Gonzalez, so perhaps the hand-wringing can continue. Two things, though. One: offense hasn’t really been their stalwart, as they allowed the fewest runs ins baseball last year, and their pitching staff remains largely unaffected. Two: there’s some youth in this current lineup, and a few players that might just improve this year.
We’ll talk some more about Venable later, but he’s being considered for the leadoff spot and has virtual buckets full of tools. Also toolsy but flawed is newcomer Maybin. If he could ever make headway cutting the strikeouts in the major leagues – he has been able to make progress in the minor leagues – he could combine plus outfield defense with league-average power and elite speed on the basepaths. At the very least, he’d be useful while cost-controlled.
Really, though, much of the onus is on system jewel Chase Headley to take another step forward. That is not to say that he hasn’t shown improvement – he’s struck out less and stolen more bases every year – but it is to say that another step is needed if he is to anchor this lineup. After showing great power in the minor leagues, Headley has perhaps been stymied by his home park (.139 away ISO, .112 home). Scratch that, he’s definitely not as happy in PetCo (.226/.311/.338 at home, .275/.350/.408 on the road). He’s also had trouble with lefties (.290 wOBA vs .336 against righties), but we’re only talking about some 500 PAs against lefties so far. Headley still has time to push the power and iron out the platoon splits.
If he does, a successful year for the Padres will also include a little bounce-back from the veterans. Ryan Ludwick (.251/.325/.41and Brad Hawpe (.245/.338/.419) both showed the worst batting lines since they’d become major league regulars. It might be tempting to blame PetCo for Ludwick’s struggles, but the park had a 95 park factor for home runs by right-handed hitters (59 for lefties), and only suppressed righty wOBAs by 8%. Just a little regression in his power (.167 ISO last year, .210 career) would ensure that he’ll be an above-average hitter in a lineup that needs more above-average hitters (93 wRC+ last year as a whole).
Where Ludwick came from a pitcher-friendly park and is used to producing despite the obstacle, Hawpe may have benefited from his park in the past (.286/.378/.513 in Coors, .273/.369/.470 away from home). At least his 175 PAs in PetCo have been okay (.281/.371/.451), and if he could continue that sort of work he would help mitigate the loss of Gonzo. His move to first base will also keep him from giving back most of his value with the glove, and Cantu will keep him from facing lefties (.380 career wOBA vs righties, .332 vs lefties). If it doesn’t work out with Hawpe, big power, big whiffer Kyle Blanks should be recovered from Tommy John surgery early in the season – and he can get it out of any stadium.
Of course, Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett both qualify as veteran bats in need of bounce-backs as well. It’s just that their possible contributions with the bat are more muted, and they can produce even without the bounce-back if they show good glove.
The Pitching Staff
RHP Mat Latos
LHP Clayton Richard
RHP Aaron Harang
RHP Tim Stauffer
LHP Wade LeBlanc
CL RHP Heath Bell
RHP Mike Adams
RHP Luke Gregerson
LHP Joe Thatcher
RHP Ernesto Frieri
LHP Aaron Poreda
RHP Chad Qualls
This is the staff that gave up the fewest runs in baseball last year. Though there’s been some changes, the backbone of the staff remains, and yet if you knew nothing about their home park, you might think some sort of record-keeping mistake had been made. Yes – Mat Latos is a stud. He has velocity, bite, and control and no innings restrictions this year, so the rotation is nice at the top. But look at the rest of the dudes, and it there are just so many reasons to consider them overrated and products of their home park.
Somehow Clayton Richard parlayed a below-average strikeout rate and walk rate into a sub-four ERA. Though he had a slightly above-average groundball rate, he only gave up home runs on 7.7% of his fly balls. You can see it in his ERA/xFIP split (3.75 / 4.19) as well as his home-road splits (3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP at home, 4.41 ERA, 1.61 WHIP on the road). Ditto for LeBlanc (4.25 ERA, 4.60 xFIP; 2.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP at home, 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP on the road). These are a couple of lefties that love home-cooking, but even the righty Harang should benefit from PetCo.
The best non-Latos upside comes from Stauffer, who shook off two injury-ridden years to show plus control (2.61 BB/9 last year) and induce groundballs by the bucketfull (54.5%). It’s tough to come back from labrum surgery, but Stauffer’s high use of his slider – his best pitch by pitch type values – seems to suggest he’s feeling good. He represents a sort of double jeopardy, since he’s been injury-riddled and also was a bit lucky last year, but he’s also an interesting pitcher. Even once his BABIP (.263) and strand rate (84.1%) have been removed from the equation, he had a strong season (3.02 FIP, 3.74 xFIP). Let’s see if he can “Watson
It’s not exactly high times to be a Dodgers fan right now. Sure, the San Francisco Giants won the World Series, but most of the bitterness of the 2010 season is directed at the divorce battle between Frank and Jamie McCourt. General Manager Ned Colletti hasn’t exactlybeen given the complete freedom to make whatever transactions necessary for the good of the big league ballclub, being hamstrung by financial constraints and all. But he was able to tack on to the starting rotation of homegrown Clayton Kershaw and Chad Billingsley by re-signing Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly, while adding Jon Garland, giving L.A.’s rotation a well-rounded staff.
But if you think the additions and re-additions of Jay Gibbons, Marcus Thames, Juan Uribe, and Rod Barajas will bolster an offense with several holes, think again. A left field and backstop sans Manny Ramirez and Russell Martin are the biggest questions for the boys of Chavez Ravine. A lesser question that will be just as publicized is the performance of current closer Jonathan Broxton, backed by an eclectic but mostly capable bullpen. The single most important X-factor that first-year manager Don Mattingly could use? A Matt Kemp revitalization, whose upside could be the difference between a third-place NL West team and a playoff contender.
The Projected Starting Lineup
1. SS Rafael Furcal
2. 3B Casey Blake
3. RF Andre Ethier
4. CF Matt Kemp
5. 1B James Loney
6. 2B Juan Uribe
7. LF Jay Gibbons / Marcus Thames / Tony Gwynn Jr.
8. C Rod Barajas
A few years ago, the top five of this lineup looked unmatched when set up against the normally pitching-heavy NL West. The upside for the 3-4-5 hitters Ethier-Kemp-Loney is still there, but the new additions in the rest of the lineup don’t instill confidence into an offense that was 11th in runs scored and 15th in home runs in the NL last season. The health of Rafael Furcal and the age of Casey Blake are concerns. For Furcal, he hit a solid .300/.366/.460 at the top of the lineup, but the 33-year-old just needs to stay healthy as the Dodgers’ middle infield bench would be a downgrade. Though 41 doubles is encouraging, James Loney was supposed to be a solid power-hitting first baseman by now, and his glovework won’t make up for his lack of offense if he continues hitting .267/.329/.395. Andre Ethier began the season as a potential Triple Crown candidate before he broke his finger and should continue to be the heart of this lineup. I’d expand on my love-hate relationship with Kemp’s superstar talent combined with underwhelming production, but we’ll get to that in a moment.
In a vacuum, to throw a three-year, $21 million contract at Juan Uribe is only slightly forgivable if you look past his low OBP and toward his power as he can field shortstop well should Furcal go down. He should be able to handle his less natural position at second base, and overall, Uribe is a slight upgrade from Ryan Theriot. The situations in left field and catcher, however, are somewhere between bewildering and inexcusable. Somehow, Rod Barajas forked $3.25 million from the Dodgers after compiling a .310 wOBA, 10th among NL catchers with at least 300 PA. A.J. Ellis would have been a cost-effective alternative with better plate discipline and albeit no power. The left field debacle will be something to watch this spring training. Jay Gibbons is the slight favorite, while Marcus Thames, Tony Gwynn Jr., and Xavier Paul should all be in the mix.
The Pitching Staff
LHP Clayton Kershaw
RHP Chad Billingsley
LHP Ted Lilly
RHP Hiroki Kuroda
RHP Jon Garland
RHP Jonathan Broxton
LHP Hong-Chih Kuo
RHP Matt Guerrier
RHP Kenley Jansen
LHP Ron Mahay
RHP Ramon Troncoso
RHP Blake Hawksworth
One of the big questions early in the Dodgers’ offseason was how the rotation would turn out. Once you get past that the team was never really in the mix for a Cliff Lee or a Zack Greinke, give credit to the front office for bringing back Hiroki Kuroda and Ted Lilly while adding Jon Garland. This rotation leads off with the left-handed Clayton Kershaw and right-handed Chad Billingsley, both achieving about a 3.00 FIP attributed to greatly improved control and walk rates while still maintaining low home-runs-allowed rates (both on the road and at home). Kershaw hasn’t exactly reached superstar ace status just yet, but the sky is the ceiling for the 23-year-old entering his fourth MLB season. Unfairly criticized at times, Billingsley, while not an ace, will give the Dodgers 200 innings as a solid No.2.
The rest of the rotation in Lilly, Kuroda and Garland brings a solid back-end. Lilly was able to make it work as a fly-ball pitcher at Wrigley Field for a few years and should continue to do so over a full season at Dodger Stadium. Kuroda and Garland are both more ground ball pitchers than anything — they and the infield defense will be helped by the addition of Uribe and a full season of Furcal. But the most value that the back-end of the rotation could bring is health and consistency. All three pitchers, particularly Lilly and Garland, should bring 180-200 innings each. Still, if any of them are to go down, the hope is that Vicente Padilla will be back in the mix after he recovers from surgery by May.
Jonathan Broxton may have gotten the most flack out of any Los Angeles player. The fastball speed issues and the tendency for former manager Joe Torre to overwork Broxton to an inconsistent schedule are factors. Even after all that, Broxton should still start out in the closer role and was able to strike out 10.54 batters per 9 innings. Hong-Chih Kuo serves as one of the best non-closer relievers in the league, somewhat like a left-handed Broxton. His high K rates and low walk rates suggest that he’s a potential Broxton replacement, but being left-handed and elbow injury-prone doesn’t make this scenario ideal. Colletti signed Matt Guerrier to a three-year deal, whose ability to appear in many games over a season will be useful for Mattingly to handle. Kenley Jansen, Ramon Troncoso, and Blake Hawksworth are all young and capable arms, with Jansen being a dark horse future closer candidate. The bullpen will move on without Ronald Belisario — his character and visa issues have pushed their limits.
Key Player
The development and success of Matt Kemp, I would argue, is the most important for the success of the Dodgers. His baserunning gaffes continued, highlighted by getting caught stealing 15 times on 34 tries. His center field play was absolutely atrocious in 2010. Sure, he led the team with 28 HRs and 89 RBIs, but that’s not enough of an excuse to hit .249/.310/.450 for a kid with as much upside as Kemp has. His strikeout rate was the worst of his career, and he consistently whiffed on fastballs that he used to crush. Take a look at Kemp’s swinging strike percentage against fastball height:
The lines represent the top (right on the graph) and bottom (left) of the rulebook strike zone while the grey line shows the league average. In 2009, Kemp whiffed on slightly more fastballs than the average hitter no matter the pitch height. But in 2010, Kemp swung and missed at many more fastballs, particularly high fastballs in the zone.
For more literature on what happened to Kemp, feel free to revisit my Rihanna-less posts on Kemp’s struggles against the fastball here and here. For an in-depth look at his mechanics, I will point you to Chad Moriyama’s post here.
Summary
The Dodgers should expect improvement from a year ago with new additions to the starting rotation. Still, a lot will have to go right for the offense if they want to offset the well below-average 7-8-9 hitting enough to hit well against NL pitching. Kemp will be a key player to watch to turn around his lackadaisical defense — I am harsh but only because the kid has the potential to hit .300/.375/.500. L.A.’s rotation, though, I would pit up against any in the NL West besides the Giants. Kershaw can develop into a true ace and Lilly/Kuroda/Garland provide a good back-end. The bullpen is led once again by Broxton and should he continue to struggle, the arms of Kuo, Guerrier, and Jansen could step in. Furcal’s health, Blake’s age, the Left Field (Pavilion)- these other pieces will have to fall toward the Dodgers’ way if the team wants to challenge the Giants for the NL West crown in 2011.
Of the 41 seasons the Padres have enjoyed, last season may have been the most painful. Finding new ways to show the standings would only serve to find new ways to visually represent the excruciatingly painful time that was last September in San Diego. But if you’re a sucker for punishment, Chris Spurlock at Beyond the Box Score obliges. Now that the team has finally traded away their slugging first baseman and lost their (only?) big bat, they are in rebuild mode, right? Maybe, except that we’ve had that thought before.
The Starting Nine
RF Will Venable* / Aaron Cunningham
2B Orlando Hudson
3B Chase Headley^
LF Ryan Ludwick
1B Brad Hawpe* / Jorge Cantu
CF Cameron Maybin
SS Jason Bartlett
C Nick Hundley
*lefty batter, ^switch-hitter
San Diego scored the fewest runs in the division (fourth-worst in the National League) with Adrian Gonzalez, so perhaps the hand-wringing can continue. Two things, though. One: offense hasn’t really been their stalwart, as they allowed the fewest runs ins baseball last year, and their pitching staff remains largely unaffected. Two: there’s some youth in this current lineup, and a few players that might just improve this year.
We’ll talk some more about Venable later, but he’s being considered for the leadoff spot and has virtual buckets full of tools. Also toolsy but flawed is newcomer Maybin. If he could ever make headway cutting the strikeouts in the major leagues – he has been able to make progress in the minor leagues – he could combine plus outfield defense with league-average power and elite speed on the basepaths. At the very least, he’d be useful while cost-controlled.
Really, though, much of the onus is on system jewel Chase Headley to take another step forward. That is not to say that he hasn’t shown improvement – he’s struck out less and stolen more bases every year – but it is to say that another step is needed if he is to anchor this lineup. After showing great power in the minor leagues, Headley has perhaps been stymied by his home park (.139 away ISO, .112 home). Scratch that, he’s definitely not as happy in PetCo (.226/.311/.338 at home, .275/.350/.408 on the road). He’s also had trouble with lefties (.290 wOBA vs .336 against righties), but we’re only talking about some 500 PAs against lefties so far. Headley still has time to push the power and iron out the platoon splits.
If he does, a successful year for the Padres will also include a little bounce-back from the veterans. Ryan Ludwick (.251/.325/.41
Where Ludwick came from a pitcher-friendly park and is used to producing despite the obstacle, Hawpe may have benefited from his park in the past (.286/.378/.513 in Coors, .273/.369/.470 away from home). At least his 175 PAs in PetCo have been okay (.281/.371/.451), and if he could continue that sort of work he would help mitigate the loss of Gonzo. His move to first base will also keep him from giving back most of his value with the glove, and Cantu will keep him from facing lefties (.380 career wOBA vs righties, .332 vs lefties). If it doesn’t work out with Hawpe, big power, big whiffer Kyle Blanks should be recovered from Tommy John surgery early in the season – and he can get it out of any stadium.
Of course, Orlando Hudson and Jason Bartlett both qualify as veteran bats in need of bounce-backs as well. It’s just that their possible contributions with the bat are more muted, and they can produce even without the bounce-back if they show good glove.
The Pitching Staff
RHP Mat Latos
LHP Clayton Richard
RHP Aaron Harang
RHP Tim Stauffer
LHP Wade LeBlanc
CL RHP Heath Bell
RHP Mike Adams
RHP Luke Gregerson
LHP Joe Thatcher
RHP Ernesto Frieri
LHP Aaron Poreda
RHP Chad Qualls
This is the staff that gave up the fewest runs in baseball last year. Though there’s been some changes, the backbone of the staff remains, and yet if you knew nothing about their home park, you might think some sort of record-keeping mistake had been made. Yes – Mat Latos is a stud. He has velocity, bite, and control and no innings restrictions this year, so the rotation is nice at the top. But look at the rest of the dudes, and it there are just so many reasons to consider them overrated and products of their home park.
Somehow Clayton Richard parlayed a below-average strikeout rate and walk rate into a sub-four ERA. Though he had a slightly above-average groundball rate, he only gave up home runs on 7.7% of his fly balls. You can see it in his ERA/xFIP split (3.75 / 4.19) as well as his home-road splits (3.15 ERA, 1.22 WHIP at home, 4.41 ERA, 1.61 WHIP on the road). Ditto for LeBlanc (4.25 ERA, 4.60 xFIP; 2.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP at home, 6.11 ERA, 1.55 WHIP on the road). These are a couple of lefties that love home-cooking, but even the righty Harang should benefit from PetCo.
The best non-Latos upside comes from Stauffer, who shook off two injury-ridden years to show plus control (2.61 BB/9 last year) and induce groundballs by the bucketfull (54.5%). It’s tough to come back from labrum surgery, but Stauffer’s high use of his slider – his best pitch by pitch type values – seems to suggest he’s feeling good. He represents a sort of double jeopardy, since he’s been injury-riddled and also was a bit lucky last year, but he’s also an interesting pitcher. Even once his BABIP (.263) and strand rate (84.1%) have been removed from the equation, he had a strong season (3.02 FIP, 3.74 xFIP). Let’s see if he can “Watson
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins played in an interleague series in June, a time for Chipper Jones and Jim Thome to get together and chat and complain the way a lot of old people complain -- like two old grannies, Jones joked Tuesday.
Jones was hitting .228 at the time and Thome wasn't playing that much, and Jones said based on that conversation, he would have bet that neither one of them would have been playing this year. But Thome had a great finish and re-signed with the Twins, and Jones dug himself out of his early-season slump, rekindling his own belief in himself, before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
Jones would like to play in 135 to 140 games, something he has done once in the past seven years, but he seems to have reached a point in his career -- as Thome has -- at which he believes that getting occasional rest helps him be more effective. "It gives you a better opportunity to stay healthy," Jones said. "When you're healthy you can do everything. … When you throw us [older players] in there, we get tired and we get nicked up, and maybe some of the consistency goes away. I'm certainly a heck of a lot more refreshed if I get a day off every six or seven games, or a day off every 10 games.
"I'm a realist, and sometimes I'm not going to be able to go."
Neither Jones nor Thome has announced exactly when he is retiring, but it would appear there is a chance that they could be inducted into the Hall of Fame at the same time, given that both are generally regarded as slam-dunk candidates. If this happens, Jones should tell this story, within his speech, that he told Wednesday about an on-field fight in which Thome and he wound up squaring off:
"My first brawl in professional ball was against Charlotte," Jones recalled. "He and Manny [Ramirez] and those guys were in Charlotte. And we cleared the benches, and he and I came across each other in the melee, and the next thing I know I was pinned up against the backstop, with my face up against the screen. And I looked over, and my mom and dad are like three rows away from me, and they had the look of horror. It was one of those moments when you just kind of cry for help, because once he got his big paws on me I was done. … He was like, 'Don't move, Chip. I will squash the life out of you.'"
Through the years, Jones and Thome have become friends from across the field, when they played against each other in the World Series in 1995, during spring training when Thome was with the Indians in Winter Haven, Fla., and during Thome's years with the Phillies.
"For a while we were the only guys who wore our uniforms with the socks showing," Jones said. "Not a better guy on the planet."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Chipper Jones will be back at third base Friday, probably.
• The Tigers ran through a full infield the other day, including all of the outfielders taking turns throwing to each of the bases, and over and over Magglio Ordonez whipped the ball with unusual power and accuracy to each of the bases -- and apparently, as this went on, Ordonez said something out loud and in jest to someone who was watching from outside the foul lines. A Hall of Famer. Al Kaline, who was known to have one of the best arms of his generation.
As the drill concluded, Kaline, who works for the Tigers, went over to Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera and said loudly to Ordonez, through a smile, "I heard you talking -- I heard you talking. I heard what you were saying." As the three of them laughed together, Kaline gave hugs to Cabrera and Ordonez.
• Most veteran pitchers just like to get their work in during spring training without doing a lot of heavy lifting, so maybe Justin Verlander surprised the Yankees with his Game 7-approach on the last day of February. After walking Robinson Cano, he tried to pick off the second baseman, and seemed to surprise Cano -- as well as his own first baseman for the day, Victor Martinez. And then after Cano went to second base and the count reached 3-and-2 on Alex Rodriguez, Verlander started his delivery … and spun out to catch Cano as he broke from second base. Then, in his second inning, Verlander threw a slider on three balls and two strikes, rather than just a fastball, and he seemingly shocked the hitter as well as the plate umpire, who might have missed the call.
• And the hits just keep coming for the Cardinals, who saw two pitchers go down with injuries, including Chris Carpenter, which is why Matt Holliday was talking about voodoo dolls.
Adam Wainwright says he'll be back next spring, writes Rick Hummel.
• Jamie McCourt charges that Frank McCourt is making secret deals.
• Baseball is not making any more major loans to the Mets, writes David Waldstein.
• The most amusing sight so far this spring: The other day in Lakeland, the Tigers were about to start a baserunning drill, and amid all the players was Victor Martinez's young son, Victor Jr. The veteran catcher turned to gently tell his son that he needed to leave the field, and the child stalked off unhappy, his lower lip down, like he had just been pinch-hit for, and like he couldn't believe he wasn't allowed to participate.
Maybe the kid has a point. Check out this video from last year of little Victor taking batting practice.
• The most amusing story heard so far this spring: Eric O'Flaherty, the Braves' lefty reliever, ate a 48-ounce steak at a restaurant the other night. O'Flaherty thought it would be presented on a plate as a long slab, but instead, it was cut thickly, like a cinder block, and O'Flaherty initially believed he wouldn't be able to finish it. But he got through it … "And I was still hungry," he said.
• The only real tension to be found in the Braves' clubhouse is related to the gaudy, wide silver-plated belt that sits above Tim Hudson's locker -- the bling he won for winning the team's fantasy football championship. From his locker, Chipper Jones listed the pivotal trades Hudson made during the season -- acquiring Peyton Manning -- and all but accused the pitcher of employing some Jedi mind trick over other owners in the league.
Whether there's a labor stoppage or not, Jones insists the Braves will hold a fantasy football draft -- which, for many teams, is a treated as a sacred event.
• The Braves are quietly encouraged by what they are seeing this spring in the early work of Nate McLouth, who is working to revitalize his career after batting just .190 in 85 games last year. The Atlanta players like the input they are getting from new hitting coach Larry Parrish.
The Braves need McLouth or Jordan Schafer to step up, writes Jeff Schultz.
• The Braves' Jonny Venters throws the best and most vicious sinker of any left-hander anybody can remember, and David Ross chuckled as he recalled some of the reactions opposing hitters had when they first saw the pitch, which basically veers straight down. Such as Jim Edmonds: "Whoooaaa."
Ross would reply to the many opponents that remarked on the pitch thusly: "I'm glad he's on my team."
Venters' sinker is so tough on lefties, and he's got just enough wildness, that there were no left-handed hitters among teammates that saw him in the first live batting practice sessions he had.
• Before the Phillies tried to sign Dennys Reyes, and before they signed J.C. Romero, they tried to land George Sherrill. Pat Gillick went to see him, and Charlie Manuel talked to him, and in the end, after Sherrill signed with the Braves, Manuel asked him: "Was there anything different that we could've done to get you?" And Sherrill explained how much it meant for him to have his father be within relatively short driving distance to see him pitch for the Braves.
Undoubtedly, the core of the Phillies' very left-handed lineup will see a lot of Sherrill. He struggled terribly for the Dodgers last season before pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed that Sherrill's plant foot -- his left foot -- was slipping from side to side as he was delivering the ball, which greatly impacted his command. After altering his mechanics to reduce that movement, Sherrill threw more effectively overall, and even in what was a down year, he shut down lefties, holding them to a .192 batting average. He and Venters and O'Flaherty will see a whole lot of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez this season, as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez plays matchups in the late innings.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Andy MacPhail is not going anywhere, says Orioles owner Peter Angelos.
2. Heard this: Joe Torre's salary in his new role with Major League Baseball is about $2 million.
3. The Brewers are talking with Casey McGehee about a multi-year deal, writes Tom Haudricourt.
4. Bob Geren wants Daric Barton bunting less, writes Susan Slusser.
5. Barry Zito is trying to stay in the Giants' good graces, writes Bruce Jenkins, who reports that the team might buy out his contract before the start of the year.
6. Austin Kearns apparently didn't tell the Indians about his DUI arrest, which was not a good decision.
7. Matt Kemp is going to be the Dodgers' cleanup hitter, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Garret Anderson has retired, as mentioned within this notebook.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Indians GM Chris Antonetti doesn't think Grady Sizemore will be ready for Opening Day.
2. Josh Beckett is feeling better.
3. Joe Nathan made his spring debut and was all smiles afterward, as La Velle Neal writes.
4. Michael Cuddyer got a wart removed, and Justin Morneau went to see a doctor for clearance.
5. Chase Utley is taking batting practice and coming along. The fact that he is not playing in games now is not a big deal. What is a big deal is that two years after he had hip surgery, his knee is bothering him before he has started playing in games on a daily basis.
6. Aaron Cook has a sore shoulder and is being shut down. Not good.
7. Joe Beimel has suffered a setback, writes Colin Dunlap.
8. Jake Peavy is ready to start Friday.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. The Nationals have more in-camp competition this year, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. The Cubs are hoping a young left-hander makes their rotation, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
3. There will not be a platoon in left field for the Reds, says Dusty Baker; Jonny Gomes will be his left fielder.
[h3]Tuesday's games[/h3]
1. Bryce Harper got his first spring hit.
2. The Blue Jays lost their fourth straight, this time with Ricky Romero on the mound.
3. Mike Hampton touched 90 mph on the radar, but hasn't been especially sharp, as mentioned within this notebook.
4. Roy Oswalt has aced his tests so far, writes Bob Brookover, and he will make his first start today.
5. Mat Latos had a wild day, as Dan Hayes writes.
6. Zack Greinke made his debut.
7. Andy Sonnanstine had a really bad day.
8. The Orioles played in front of a sellout, which is significant.
9. Tommy Hanson was dominant.
10. The Tigers' Jacob Turner drew raves. Ryan Rayburn showed some punch.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Heard this from a scout: Oakland's Gio Gonzalez looks very, very good this spring, after taking big strides in his career last season. He struck out five of six hitters, throwing 93-95 mph.
• The Orioles seem ready to shake off years of mediocrity, writes Joe Henderson.
• Derek Jeter thinks the conversation about his hitting mechanics are overstated, writes George King.
• Jeff Francoeur and the Royals have a lot in common, writes Sam Mellinger.
• Casey Kotchman is trying to resurrect his career.
• Jon Lester is focused on the World Series.
• Jorge Posada's routine is changing, as Pat Borzi writes.
• Talking with Josh Hamilton is fun, even if you don't get any answers, writes Randy Galloway.
• The Rangers have a bunch of lefties.
• Brandon Wood says he's more mature and confident, writes Kevin Baxter.
• The Giants could be capable of a dynasty, writes Tim Kawakami.
• Dusty Baker wants Drew Stubbs to find himself.
• The Astros' Chris Johnson wants to prove last year was not a fluke.
• Ron Washington has nothing to prove to his critics, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor.
• James McDonald is working on mound presence.
• Zach Duke has the tools to bounce back, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Randy Choate, new to the Marlins, is a little quirky, writes Clark Spencer.
• Chris Coghlan's bat bears watching, writes Juan Rodriguez.
• Chris Volstad feels an improved slider will help his sinker.
• Carlos Gonzalez's mom wanted him to be an astronaut, writes Woody Paige.
• Kenny Williams spoke about the state of the White Sox.
• The Mariners have an ex-Auburn QB in their camp.
• Joe Mauer has some advice for Jesus Montero, as Joe Brescia writes.
• Greg Anderson is going back to jail, writes Jim Litke.
I was asked on Twitter earlier this week to name a prospect who might be this year's Mike Trout -- that is, a prospect who jumps from outside my Top 25 into my Top 10 as Trout did with a breakout full-season debut in 2010. It's a little tricker this year. Last year, guys like Jason Heyward and Buster Posey seemed certain for quick call-ups, while my Top 10 this year could see three or fewer graduations to the majors, with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Julio Teheran, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Shelby Miller and Aaron Hicks all unlikely to see enough major league time to lose their rookie status before 2012.
With that one caveat in mind, though, here are six guys who could move up the rankings because of tools and/or ceiling, with an explanation of why they might or might not take the big step forward.
Jonathan Singleton, LF/1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Ranked: 27
He's a little obvious, perhaps, but Singleton had about two months in midsummer when he hit like a Top 10 overall prospect; that period was bookended by time in extended spring training and a very early fade in August when the long season caught up to him. He has a great swing and future power projection, and he should be athletic enough to handle left field, where the Phillies are moving him because they've got Ryan Howard under contract until the end of the Holocene epoch. If Singleton doesn't make the leap, it'll be either because he couldn't handle the position switch or couldn't endure 500 at-bats without fatigue again. Fellow Phillies prospect Jarred Cosart, a right-handed pitcher, also fits this description and just needs to show that his elbow is healthy and that he can handle a full minor league season.
Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Ranked: 52
If I was going purely off stuff, I could have ranked Martinez in the Top 10 or Top 20 at worst, but given the lack of a track record I kept it conservative and held him out of the Top 50. Martinez has four pitches, two already plus in the fastball (up to 9
Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Ranked: 66
McNutt went from 32nd-round pick in 2009 to pitching in the Double-A playoffs in 2010, and if he had more of a track record he probably would have been a Top 50 prospect for me coming into this year. McNutt has a chance for three above-average to plus pitches, with a body and delivery that point to the rotation and its attendant workloads. But the risk with McNutt this summer is that he'll pitch well enough to graduate from the list (50 innings in the majors or 45 days on the 25-man roster), which fits given the Cubs' willingness last year to pull Andrew Cashner up from the minors and have him spend the majority of the year in the major league bullpen.
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
Ranked: 68
Sanchez can hit, and looks like he'll hit for power, and while Jesus Montero comparisons fall under the "obvious scout is obvious" tag, there are some important parallels, including the question of whether Sanchez can remain behind the plate. I think he can, and at worst think he has a better shot to do so than the more massive Montero does. A full year behind the plate and another year of physical development will go a long way toward answering the question of his defensive future, but there aren't many questions about his offensive potential. If Sanchez doesn't make a big leap, it's probably because the odds that he'll catch have dropped for some unexpected reason.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Ranked: 75
Castellanos was a very advanced high school hitter who faced good competition in South Florida and did just about every possible showcase during the summer after his junior year, so he entered pro ball with fewer questions around his bat than the typical prep position player might. He can already show big power in BP and has the frame to grow into wood-bat power that would play in the middle of a lineup. After playing shortstop as a high school senior, Castellanos moved to what should be his ultimate position of third base, where he has the hands and arm to be above-average. With hit, power, glove and arm tools, Castellanos would fail to make a big jump in the rankings if he doesn't have the eye or approach at the plate to sustain his offensive performance this year.
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Ranked: 99
Sanchez is probably more likely to reach the Top 10 in the 2013 list than the 2012 list, but it's worth highlighting him as a prospect who could make a big jump with a full year in the minors. He has the frame and arm action you want to see on a high school pitcher, and his physical projection has already started to bear fruit as his velocity ticked up in the instructional league. His path to the Top 10 or Top 20 is pretty standard -- get stronger, throw the changeup more to develop a feel for it, improve command -- but he has the physical ceiling that most right-handed pitching prospects lack.
LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins played in an interleague series in June, a time for Chipper Jones and Jim Thome to get together and chat and complain the way a lot of old people complain -- like two old grannies, Jones joked Tuesday.
Jones was hitting .228 at the time and Thome wasn't playing that much, and Jones said based on that conversation, he would have bet that neither one of them would have been playing this year. But Thome had a great finish and re-signed with the Twins, and Jones dug himself out of his early-season slump, rekindling his own belief in himself, before suffering a season-ending knee injury.
Jones would like to play in 135 to 140 games, something he has done once in the past seven years, but he seems to have reached a point in his career -- as Thome has -- at which he believes that getting occasional rest helps him be more effective. "It gives you a better opportunity to stay healthy," Jones said. "When you're healthy you can do everything. … When you throw us [older players] in there, we get tired and we get nicked up, and maybe some of the consistency goes away. I'm certainly a heck of a lot more refreshed if I get a day off every six or seven games, or a day off every 10 games.
"I'm a realist, and sometimes I'm not going to be able to go."
Neither Jones nor Thome has announced exactly when he is retiring, but it would appear there is a chance that they could be inducted into the Hall of Fame at the same time, given that both are generally regarded as slam-dunk candidates. If this happens, Jones should tell this story, within his speech, that he told Wednesday about an on-field fight in which Thome and he wound up squaring off:
"My first brawl in professional ball was against Charlotte," Jones recalled. "He and Manny [Ramirez] and those guys were in Charlotte. And we cleared the benches, and he and I came across each other in the melee, and the next thing I know I was pinned up against the backstop, with my face up against the screen. And I looked over, and my mom and dad are like three rows away from me, and they had the look of horror. It was one of those moments when you just kind of cry for help, because once he got his big paws on me I was done. … He was like, 'Don't move, Chip. I will squash the life out of you.'"
Through the years, Jones and Thome have become friends from across the field, when they played against each other in the World Series in 1995, during spring training when Thome was with the Indians in Winter Haven, Fla., and during Thome's years with the Phillies.
"For a while we were the only guys who wore our uniforms with the socks showing," Jones said. "Not a better guy on the planet."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Chipper Jones will be back at third base Friday, probably.
• The Tigers ran through a full infield the other day, including all of the outfielders taking turns throwing to each of the bases, and over and over Magglio Ordonez whipped the ball with unusual power and accuracy to each of the bases -- and apparently, as this went on, Ordonez said something out loud and in jest to someone who was watching from outside the foul lines. A Hall of Famer. Al Kaline, who was known to have one of the best arms of his generation.
As the drill concluded, Kaline, who works for the Tigers, went over to Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera and said loudly to Ordonez, through a smile, "I heard you talking -- I heard you talking. I heard what you were saying." As the three of them laughed together, Kaline gave hugs to Cabrera and Ordonez.
• Most veteran pitchers just like to get their work in during spring training without doing a lot of heavy lifting, so maybe Justin Verlander surprised the Yankees with his Game 7-approach on the last day of February. After walking Robinson Cano, he tried to pick off the second baseman, and seemed to surprise Cano -- as well as his own first baseman for the day, Victor Martinez. And then after Cano went to second base and the count reached 3-and-2 on Alex Rodriguez, Verlander started his delivery … and spun out to catch Cano as he broke from second base. Then, in his second inning, Verlander threw a slider on three balls and two strikes, rather than just a fastball, and he seemingly shocked the hitter as well as the plate umpire, who might have missed the call.
• And the hits just keep coming for the Cardinals, who saw two pitchers go down with injuries, including Chris Carpenter, which is why Matt Holliday was talking about voodoo dolls.
Adam Wainwright says he'll be back next spring, writes Rick Hummel.
• Jamie McCourt charges that Frank McCourt is making secret deals.
• Baseball is not making any more major loans to the Mets, writes David Waldstein.
• The most amusing sight so far this spring: The other day in Lakeland, the Tigers were about to start a baserunning drill, and amid all the players was Victor Martinez's young son, Victor Jr. The veteran catcher turned to gently tell his son that he needed to leave the field, and the child stalked off unhappy, his lower lip down, like he had just been pinch-hit for, and like he couldn't believe he wasn't allowed to participate.
Maybe the kid has a point. Check out this video from last year of little Victor taking batting practice.
• The most amusing story heard so far this spring: Eric O'Flaherty, the Braves' lefty reliever, ate a 48-ounce steak at a restaurant the other night. O'Flaherty thought it would be presented on a plate as a long slab, but instead, it was cut thickly, like a cinder block, and O'Flaherty initially believed he wouldn't be able to finish it. But he got through it … "And I was still hungry," he said.
• The only real tension to be found in the Braves' clubhouse is related to the gaudy, wide silver-plated belt that sits above Tim Hudson's locker -- the bling he won for winning the team's fantasy football championship. From his locker, Chipper Jones listed the pivotal trades Hudson made during the season -- acquiring Peyton Manning -- and all but accused the pitcher of employing some Jedi mind trick over other owners in the league.
Whether there's a labor stoppage or not, Jones insists the Braves will hold a fantasy football draft -- which, for many teams, is a treated as a sacred event.
• The Braves are quietly encouraged by what they are seeing this spring in the early work of Nate McLouth, who is working to revitalize his career after batting just .190 in 85 games last year. The Atlanta players like the input they are getting from new hitting coach Larry Parrish.
The Braves need McLouth or Jordan Schafer to step up, writes Jeff Schultz.
• The Braves' Jonny Venters throws the best and most vicious sinker of any left-hander anybody can remember, and David Ross chuckled as he recalled some of the reactions opposing hitters had when they first saw the pitch, which basically veers straight down. Such as Jim Edmonds: "Whoooaaa."
Ross would reply to the many opponents that remarked on the pitch thusly: "I'm glad he's on my team."
Venters' sinker is so tough on lefties, and he's got just enough wildness, that there were no left-handed hitters among teammates that saw him in the first live batting practice sessions he had.
• Before the Phillies tried to sign Dennys Reyes, and before they signed J.C. Romero, they tried to land George Sherrill. Pat Gillick went to see him, and Charlie Manuel talked to him, and in the end, after Sherrill signed with the Braves, Manuel asked him: "Was there anything different that we could've done to get you?" And Sherrill explained how much it meant for him to have his father be within relatively short driving distance to see him pitch for the Braves.
Undoubtedly, the core of the Phillies' very left-handed lineup will see a lot of Sherrill. He struggled terribly for the Dodgers last season before pitching coach Rick Honeycutt noticed that Sherrill's plant foot -- his left foot -- was slipping from side to side as he was delivering the ball, which greatly impacted his command. After altering his mechanics to reduce that movement, Sherrill threw more effectively overall, and even in what was a down year, he shut down lefties, holding them to a .192 batting average. He and Venters and O'Flaherty will see a whole lot of Chase Utley, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez this season, as Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez plays matchups in the late innings.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Andy MacPhail is not going anywhere, says Orioles owner Peter Angelos.
2. Heard this: Joe Torre's salary in his new role with Major League Baseball is about $2 million.
3. The Brewers are talking with Casey McGehee about a multi-year deal, writes Tom Haudricourt.
4. Bob Geren wants Daric Barton bunting less, writes Susan Slusser.
5. Barry Zito is trying to stay in the Giants' good graces, writes Bruce Jenkins, who reports that the team might buy out his contract before the start of the year.
6. Austin Kearns apparently didn't tell the Indians about his DUI arrest, which was not a good decision.
7. Matt Kemp is going to be the Dodgers' cleanup hitter, writes Dylan Hernandez.
8. Garret Anderson has retired, as mentioned within this notebook.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Indians GM Chris Antonetti doesn't think Grady Sizemore will be ready for Opening Day.
2. Josh Beckett is feeling better.
3. Joe Nathan made his spring debut and was all smiles afterward, as La Velle Neal writes.
4. Michael Cuddyer got a wart removed, and Justin Morneau went to see a doctor for clearance.
5. Chase Utley is taking batting practice and coming along. The fact that he is not playing in games now is not a big deal. What is a big deal is that two years after he had hip surgery, his knee is bothering him before he has started playing in games on a daily basis.
6. Aaron Cook has a sore shoulder and is being shut down. Not good.
7. Joe Beimel has suffered a setback, writes Colin Dunlap.
8. Jake Peavy is ready to start Friday.
[h3]The Battle for Jobs[/h3]
1. The Nationals have more in-camp competition this year, writes Adam Kilgore.
2. The Cubs are hoping a young left-hander makes their rotation, as Gordon Wittenmyer writes.
3. There will not be a platoon in left field for the Reds, says Dusty Baker; Jonny Gomes will be his left fielder.
[h3]Tuesday's games[/h3]
1. Bryce Harper got his first spring hit.
2. The Blue Jays lost their fourth straight, this time with Ricky Romero on the mound.
3. Mike Hampton touched 90 mph on the radar, but hasn't been especially sharp, as mentioned within this notebook.
4. Roy Oswalt has aced his tests so far, writes Bob Brookover, and he will make his first start today.
5. Mat Latos had a wild day, as Dan Hayes writes.
6. Zack Greinke made his debut.
7. Andy Sonnanstine had a really bad day.
8. The Orioles played in front of a sellout, which is significant.
9. Tommy Hanson was dominant.
10. The Tigers' Jacob Turner drew raves. Ryan Rayburn showed some punch.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Heard this from a scout: Oakland's Gio Gonzalez looks very, very good this spring, after taking big strides in his career last season. He struck out five of six hitters, throwing 93-95 mph.
• The Orioles seem ready to shake off years of mediocrity, writes Joe Henderson.
• Derek Jeter thinks the conversation about his hitting mechanics are overstated, writes George King.
• Jeff Francoeur and the Royals have a lot in common, writes Sam Mellinger.
• Casey Kotchman is trying to resurrect his career.
• Jon Lester is focused on the World Series.
• Jorge Posada's routine is changing, as Pat Borzi writes.
• Talking with Josh Hamilton is fun, even if you don't get any answers, writes Randy Galloway.
• The Rangers have a bunch of lefties.
• Brandon Wood says he's more mature and confident, writes Kevin Baxter.
• The Giants could be capable of a dynasty, writes Tim Kawakami.
• Dusty Baker wants Drew Stubbs to find himself.
• The Astros' Chris Johnson wants to prove last year was not a fluke.
• Ron Washington has nothing to prove to his critics, writes Jean-Jacques Taylor.
• James McDonald is working on mound presence.
• Zach Duke has the tools to bounce back, writes Nick Piecoro.
• Randy Choate, new to the Marlins, is a little quirky, writes Clark Spencer.
• Chris Coghlan's bat bears watching, writes Juan Rodriguez.
• Chris Volstad feels an improved slider will help his sinker.
• Carlos Gonzalez's mom wanted him to be an astronaut, writes Woody Paige.
• Kenny Williams spoke about the state of the White Sox.
• The Mariners have an ex-Auburn QB in their camp.
• Joe Mauer has some advice for Jesus Montero, as Joe Brescia writes.
• Greg Anderson is going back to jail, writes Jim Litke.
I was asked on Twitter earlier this week to name a prospect who might be this year's Mike Trout -- that is, a prospect who jumps from outside my Top 25 into my Top 10 as Trout did with a breakout full-season debut in 2010. It's a little tricker this year. Last year, guys like Jason Heyward and Buster Posey seemed certain for quick call-ups, while my Top 10 this year could see three or fewer graduations to the majors, with Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Julio Teheran, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, Shelby Miller and Aaron Hicks all unlikely to see enough major league time to lose their rookie status before 2012.
With that one caveat in mind, though, here are six guys who could move up the rankings because of tools and/or ceiling, with an explanation of why they might or might not take the big step forward.
Jonathan Singleton, LF/1B, Philadelphia Phillies
Ranked: 27
He's a little obvious, perhaps, but Singleton had about two months in midsummer when he hit like a Top 10 overall prospect; that period was bookended by time in extended spring training and a very early fade in August when the long season caught up to him. He has a great swing and future power projection, and he should be athletic enough to handle left field, where the Phillies are moving him because they've got Ryan Howard under contract until the end of the Holocene epoch. If Singleton doesn't make the leap, it'll be either because he couldn't handle the position switch or couldn't endure 500 at-bats without fatigue again. Fellow Phillies prospect Jarred Cosart, a right-handed pitcher, also fits this description and just needs to show that his elbow is healthy and that he can handle a full minor league season.
Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Ranked: 52
If I was going purely off stuff, I could have ranked Martinez in the Top 10 or Top 20 at worst, but given the lack of a track record I kept it conservative and held him out of the Top 50. Martinez has four pitches, two already plus in the fastball (up to 9
Trey McNutt, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Ranked: 66
McNutt went from 32nd-round pick in 2009 to pitching in the Double-A playoffs in 2010, and if he had more of a track record he probably would have been a Top 50 prospect for me coming into this year. McNutt has a chance for three above-average to plus pitches, with a body and delivery that point to the rotation and its attendant workloads. But the risk with McNutt this summer is that he'll pitch well enough to graduate from the list (50 innings in the majors or 45 days on the 25-man roster), which fits given the Cubs' willingness last year to pull Andrew Cashner up from the minors and have him spend the majority of the year in the major league bullpen.
Gary Sanchez, C, New York Yankees
Ranked: 68
Sanchez can hit, and looks like he'll hit for power, and while Jesus Montero comparisons fall under the "obvious scout is obvious" tag, there are some important parallels, including the question of whether Sanchez can remain behind the plate. I think he can, and at worst think he has a better shot to do so than the more massive Montero does. A full year behind the plate and another year of physical development will go a long way toward answering the question of his defensive future, but there aren't many questions about his offensive potential. If Sanchez doesn't make a big leap, it's probably because the odds that he'll catch have dropped for some unexpected reason.
Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers
Ranked: 75
Castellanos was a very advanced high school hitter who faced good competition in South Florida and did just about every possible showcase during the summer after his junior year, so he entered pro ball with fewer questions around his bat than the typical prep position player might. He can already show big power in BP and has the frame to grow into wood-bat power that would play in the middle of a lineup. After playing shortstop as a high school senior, Castellanos moved to what should be his ultimate position of third base, where he has the hands and arm to be above-average. With hit, power, glove and arm tools, Castellanos would fail to make a big jump in the rankings if he doesn't have the eye or approach at the plate to sustain his offensive performance this year.
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Ranked: 99
Sanchez is probably more likely to reach the Top 10 in the 2013 list than the 2012 list, but it's worth highlighting him as a prospect who could make a big jump with a full year in the minors. He has the frame and arm action you want to see on a high school pitcher, and his physical projection has already started to bear fruit as his velocity ticked up in the instructional league. His path to the Top 10 or Top 20 is pretty standard -- get stronger, throw the changeup more to develop a feel for it, improve command -- but he has the physical ceiling that most right-handed pitching prospects lack.
