2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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That's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much to give up for Gio freaking Gonzalez
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Evaluating the Sergio Santos trade.

Spoiler [+]
With the deal that sends Chicago White Sox reliever Sergio Santos to Toronto for Blue Jays prospect Nestor Molina, the Jays trade maybe their sixth-best pitching prospect for a very effective short reliever (whom they had previously when he was still a position player). This should take Toronto out of the market for free agent closers, most of whom end up overpaid thanks to the winner's curse and the short peaks of most relievers' careers. The White Sox, on the other hand, get an extreme control right-hander without much of a breaking ball who could be a dominant two-pitch reliever, but is probably a year away from seriously contributing in the majors.

Santos was a shortstop (and not a good one) as recently as 2008, but converted to the mound in 2009 and raced to the majors even though he was mostly just an arm-strength guy at the time he switched roles. He's much more than that now, getting ahead with a mid-90s fastball but putting hitters away with a hard, extremely late-breaking slider that looks like it drops off a cliff at the last second. Santos threw 174 sliders in two-strike counts this year, according to Bloomberg Sports, and 57 percent of them resulted in strikeouts. The White Sox didn't use him much either in number of games or within the games he pitched, with 80 percent of his outings comprised of one inning or less, so between that and his time as a position player he's about as lightly-used a reliever as you'll find in the big leagues. As long as Santos is healthy he'll provide excellent value to the Blue Jays either on the field or in a trade a year or so from now when he's a more "proven" closer.

Molina, also a converted infielder, has outstanding control, walking 16 batters in 130 innings in 2011 across two levels, most of it in high-A. He has a solid-average fastball at 90-92 with a plus splitter, a pitch that made him more effective against left-handed batters than right-handed by over 100 points of OPS this year. His breaking ball is a work in progress, to say the least, and he doesn't offer much projection, so there's still an open question of whether he can remain a starter with a mid-rotation ceiling or a late-game reliever. He should have a significant role in the pen even if he ends up exclusively a fastball/splitter guy. Molina is a good prospect, probably the best now in a fallow White Sox system, but the return seems a little light for a major-league reliever signed to a very affordable three-year deal.

The Marlins possible fab four.

Spoiler [+]
DALLAS -- Let's have a little fun as we speculate whether Albert Pujols will sign with the Miami Marlins.

A lineup that includes Pujols, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton certainly has the possibility to be one of the most imposing in the game.

In fact, the Marlins would have the potential to be that rare team to feature at least four position players with a WAR (wins above replacement) of 5.0 or higher. Here is the career-best single-season WAR for each player, via Baseball-Reference.com:

Pujols: 10.9
Reyes: 5.9
Ramirez: 7.6
Stanton: 5.7

Now, that's a little misleading, as Pujols' 10.9 season came in 2003 and Ramirez was injured and struggled in 2011. Here are the 2011 totals for each player:

Pujols: 5.4
Reyes: 5.8
Ramirez: 0.5
Stanton: 5.7

Only 29 teams since 1901 have had four five-win position players (two had five and only the 1939 Yankees had six). The last teams with four such players were the 2003 Braves and Cardinals.

2003 Braves
Marcus Giles: 8.2 (yes, Marcus Giles)
Gary Sheffield: 7.6
Javy Lopez: 6.6
Andruw Jones: 5.1

(Even though he posted a .402 OBP, Chipper Jones graded as 3.6-WAR player, with bad defense in left field contributing to that.)

2003 Cardinals
Pujols: 10.9
Jim Edmonds: 7.3
Edgar Renteria: 6.5
Scott Rolen: 5.1

The 2001 Mariners -- who won 116 games -- had five five-win players:

Bret Boone: 9.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 7.6
Mike Cameron: 6.4
Edgar Martinez: 5.5
John Olerud: 5.3

(The 1972 Reds, with Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez and Bobby Tolan were the other team with five five-win guys in their lineup. The famed 1939 Yankees had six: Joe DiMaggio, Bill Dickey, Charlie Keller, Joe Gordon, Red Rolfe and George Selkirk.)

Anyway, having four players of such high caliber would certainly be a rarity, as its happened just 10 times in the past 30 years.

For 10 years and $220 million, maybe the Marlins will make it happen.
 
That's wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy too much to give up for Gio freaking Gonzalez
laugh.gif


Evaluating the Sergio Santos trade.

Spoiler [+]
With the deal that sends Chicago White Sox reliever Sergio Santos to Toronto for Blue Jays prospect Nestor Molina, the Jays trade maybe their sixth-best pitching prospect for a very effective short reliever (whom they had previously when he was still a position player). This should take Toronto out of the market for free agent closers, most of whom end up overpaid thanks to the winner's curse and the short peaks of most relievers' careers. The White Sox, on the other hand, get an extreme control right-hander without much of a breaking ball who could be a dominant two-pitch reliever, but is probably a year away from seriously contributing in the majors.

Santos was a shortstop (and not a good one) as recently as 2008, but converted to the mound in 2009 and raced to the majors even though he was mostly just an arm-strength guy at the time he switched roles. He's much more than that now, getting ahead with a mid-90s fastball but putting hitters away with a hard, extremely late-breaking slider that looks like it drops off a cliff at the last second. Santos threw 174 sliders in two-strike counts this year, according to Bloomberg Sports, and 57 percent of them resulted in strikeouts. The White Sox didn't use him much either in number of games or within the games he pitched, with 80 percent of his outings comprised of one inning or less, so between that and his time as a position player he's about as lightly-used a reliever as you'll find in the big leagues. As long as Santos is healthy he'll provide excellent value to the Blue Jays either on the field or in a trade a year or so from now when he's a more "proven" closer.

Molina, also a converted infielder, has outstanding control, walking 16 batters in 130 innings in 2011 across two levels, most of it in high-A. He has a solid-average fastball at 90-92 with a plus splitter, a pitch that made him more effective against left-handed batters than right-handed by over 100 points of OPS this year. His breaking ball is a work in progress, to say the least, and he doesn't offer much projection, so there's still an open question of whether he can remain a starter with a mid-rotation ceiling or a late-game reliever. He should have a significant role in the pen even if he ends up exclusively a fastball/splitter guy. Molina is a good prospect, probably the best now in a fallow White Sox system, but the return seems a little light for a major-league reliever signed to a very affordable three-year deal.

The Marlins possible fab four.

Spoiler [+]
DALLAS -- Let's have a little fun as we speculate whether Albert Pujols will sign with the Miami Marlins.

A lineup that includes Pujols, Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez and Mike Stanton certainly has the possibility to be one of the most imposing in the game.

In fact, the Marlins would have the potential to be that rare team to feature at least four position players with a WAR (wins above replacement) of 5.0 or higher. Here is the career-best single-season WAR for each player, via Baseball-Reference.com:

Pujols: 10.9
Reyes: 5.9
Ramirez: 7.6
Stanton: 5.7

Now, that's a little misleading, as Pujols' 10.9 season came in 2003 and Ramirez was injured and struggled in 2011. Here are the 2011 totals for each player:

Pujols: 5.4
Reyes: 5.8
Ramirez: 0.5
Stanton: 5.7

Only 29 teams since 1901 have had four five-win position players (two had five and only the 1939 Yankees had six). The last teams with four such players were the 2003 Braves and Cardinals.

2003 Braves
Marcus Giles: 8.2 (yes, Marcus Giles)
Gary Sheffield: 7.6
Javy Lopez: 6.6
Andruw Jones: 5.1

(Even though he posted a .402 OBP, Chipper Jones graded as 3.6-WAR player, with bad defense in left field contributing to that.)

2003 Cardinals
Pujols: 10.9
Jim Edmonds: 7.3
Edgar Renteria: 6.5
Scott Rolen: 5.1

The 2001 Mariners -- who won 116 games -- had five five-win players:

Bret Boone: 9.3
Ichiro Suzuki: 7.6
Mike Cameron: 6.4
Edgar Martinez: 5.5
John Olerud: 5.3

(The 1972 Reds, with Johnny Bench, Joe Morgan, Pete Rose, Tony Perez and Bobby Tolan were the other team with five five-win guys in their lineup. The famed 1939 Yankees had six: Joe DiMaggio, Bill Dickey, Charlie Keller, Joe Gordon, Red Rolfe and George Selkirk.)

Anyway, having four players of such high caliber would certainly be a rarity, as its happened just 10 times in the past 30 years.

For 10 years and $220 million, maybe the Marlins will make it happen.
 
Billy said it would take more than Logan to get it done. A combination of either and prospects is fine with me as long as we don't include Dominguez
 
Billy said it would take more than Logan to get it done. A combination of either and prospects is fine with me as long as we don't include Dominguez
 
Yea and I still say it's way too much for Gio Gonzalez. It's a guy who does strike out a good amount of hitters but walks too many, too many times can't control the strike zone and a guy who really benefits from his defense/pitchers park. Only reason he'd get some semblance of that back is because he's under team control for a couple more years. You could get better pitchers for those two good hitting kids.

I'd keep Dominguez around. Just in case Hanley's fluke year was a decline.
 
Yea and I still say it's way too much for Gio Gonzalez. It's a guy who does strike out a good amount of hitters but walks too many, too many times can't control the strike zone and a guy who really benefits from his defense/pitchers park. Only reason he'd get some semblance of that back is because he's under team control for a couple more years. You could get better pitchers for those two good hitting kids.

I'd keep Dominguez around. Just in case Hanley's fluke year was a decline.
 
The White Sox just had to do something to get a real prospect in their system. 
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If Molina is the kind of return for a good, not great closer under control for three years, the Indians definitely aren't going to look into the calls they are getting about Chris Perez.

https://twitter.com/#!/ProspectInsider
ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill

Buzz in Dallas seems to be all about Marlins, Pujols. One NL exec just asked me via text "are you hearing what I am? Pujols, 10/250, Miami."


https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi
jonmorosi Jon Morosi

I'm no body language expert, but #Marlins looked rather smiley as Albert Pujols talks approach critical point.
 
The White Sox just had to do something to get a real prospect in their system. 
laugh.gif


If Molina is the kind of return for a good, not great closer under control for three years, the Indians definitely aren't going to look into the calls they are getting about Chris Perez.

https://twitter.com/#!/ProspectInsider
ProspectInsider Jason A. Churchill

Buzz in Dallas seems to be all about Marlins, Pujols. One NL exec just asked me via text "are you hearing what I am? Pujols, 10/250, Miami."


https://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi
jonmorosi Jon Morosi

I'm no body language expert, but #Marlins looked rather smiley as Albert Pujols talks approach critical point.
 
Originally Posted by KayGeeDaGr8

The fish got Albert


Official or just saying? 
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Saying the M's are now the front runners for Prince because Mil/Wsh/Tor don't wanna offer long term deals.  Nothing over 5 years.
 
Originally Posted by KayGeeDaGr8

The fish got Albert


Official or just saying? 
laugh.gif
.

Saying the M's are now the front runners for Prince because Mil/Wsh/Tor don't wanna offer long term deals.  Nothing over 5 years.
 
I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.
 
I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.


   Tom Hicks/A-Rod marriage alllllll over again
laugh.gif
.
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.


   Tom Hicks/A-Rod marriage alllllll over again
laugh.gif
.
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.

yea but franchise value is going to go up if they do end up getting him....and if they win im sure the price will increase from that 350
  
 
Originally Posted by abovelegit1

I have to say, Jeff Loria was shrewd in his dealings to get to this point, but laughably transparent to anyone paying attention. He kept payroll at a bare minimum for years in order to maximize profit from revenue sharing while convincing an entire city and it's taxpayers to shell out some $400 million for a new stadium because he was "losing money." But of course his books were kept under lock and key so there was no actual proof of this. And now he'll splurge in order to sell tickets to a hypothetical fanbase, while paying what he owes on the stadium, and maintaining a huge payroll for years. For all intents and purposes his project is bound to "work" in the short term, but I wouldn't be surprised if he's filing for chapter 11 before Pujols' contract is up. Among other reasons, it's probably not a good idea to give a player 250 million when your entire franchise is valued at 350 million.

yea but franchise value is going to go up if they do end up getting him....and if they win im sure the price will increase from that 350
  
 
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