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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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Originally Posted by CP1708
all you Cub slanderers.
Long as it happens before I die. Lakers and Canes do well for me, I just ask for one from the Phins and Cubs.
But you gotta admit bruh..........that Cubs/MLB: The show video is
"SO REAL, ITS UN-REAL"
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Originally Posted by CP1708
all you Cub slanderers.
Long as it happens before I die. Lakers and Canes do well for me, I just ask for one from the Phins and Cubs.
But you gotta admit bruh..........that Cubs/MLB: The show video is
"SO REAL, ITS UN-REAL"
- 9,530
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Originally Posted by CP1708
all you Cub slanderers.
- 9,530
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- Dec 17, 2003
Originally Posted by CP1708
all you Cub slanderers.
- 10,206
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Hey FB............checkout this dude Matt Adams.....Cards might have something here He`s a lefty, and throws rights (which is odd, he doesnt bat both sides) but he is BOMBING right now!!!!!
Texas League Player of the year last year
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
SPR TEX .300 115 463 80 139 23 2 32 101 262 40 90 0 1 .357 .566 .923
Texas League Player of the year last year
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
SPR TEX .300 115 463 80 139 23 2 32 101 262 40 90 0 1 .357 .566 .923
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Hey FB............checkout this dude Matt Adams.....Cards might have something here He`s a lefty, and throws rights (which is odd, he doesnt bat both sides) but he is BOMBING right now!!!!!
Texas League Player of the year last year
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
SPR TEX .300 115 463 80 139 23 2 32 101 262 40 90 0 1 .357 .566 .923
Texas League Player of the year last year
Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
SPR TEX .300 115 463 80 139 23 2 32 101 262 40 90 0 1 .357 .566 .923
Atlanta's costly payroll problem.
Ryan Braun's 'real story'.
Darvish shows nasty stuff in spring debut.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Soler buzz[/h3]
8:39AM ET
[h5]Jorge Soler [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The last we heard on Jorge Soler is that the Houston Astros were keeping tabs on the Cuban outfielder and that the Boston Red Sox were very much interested in the prospect, but we've yet to hear that he's been declared an official free agent by Major League Baseball, which is among the first steps -- along with establishing residency in a participating country -- just like we saw with Yoenis Cespedes.
The Chicago Cubs are expected to be an aggressive bidder once Soler hits the market, but Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wrote a few weeks back that the White Sox could outbid the Cubs, and any other bidder.
As for a guess as to how much Soler might warrant, MLB.com's Peter Gammons tweetedearlier this week that one scouting director told him he sees Soler signing with the Cubs for $27 million.
Previously, Miami Marlins president David Samson said in a radio interview his team is not interested in Soler, as per a tweet from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Cleveland Indians have worked out Soler on a number of occasions, tweeted Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer and Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted several weeks ago that the Yankees and Phillies were the two teams at the time that have been the most aggressive on Soler.
Phillies GM Ruben Aramo confirms his club's interest.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix, too,reported Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Considering the way things went down with Cespedes -- he signed with Oakland out of nowhere after the general belief was that the Miami Marlins were the heavy favorites -- anything can happen, including a mystery team or two. We have to believe, however, that with March looming -- and minor league camp opening soon -- that Soler will sign soon.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Cespedes vs. Soler
http://[h3]No deal for Hamels yet[/h3]
8:34AM ET
[h5]Cole Hamels | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Hamels' agent John Boggs is leaving Clearwater, Fla., Thursday without completing a deal for Hamels, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. "At this point," Boggs said, "we're not going to discuss the negotiations. But I'm trying to remain positive. And that's all I'd like to say."
No deadline has been set by either side, but it's common for clubs and players to try and avoid negotiations during the season in order to stave off potential distractions to the player and team.
...
UPDATE: John Boggs, the agent for Hamels, is in Clearwater to begin negotiations with the Phillies on a long-term extension for his client, says David Murphy in Wednesday's Philadelphia Daily News.
--
Talks between the Philadelphia Phillis and left-hander Cole Hamels are picking up steam, reports Jim Salisbury.
It appear clear that there will be no discount given by Hamels, who is likely to cost the club more than $100 million to keep around, which would give them two pitchers and a first baseman owed more than $100 million.
The pending free agency of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino could be impacted by any large extension for Hamels, who is from Southern California and could be an attractive free agent next offseason for a club such as the Dodgers, and even the Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Posey back behind plate[/h3]
8:31AM ET
[h5]Buster Posey | Giants [/h5]
It's been almost 10 months since Buster Posey took his place behind the dish in real game action. That's expected to change Friday.
The Giants catcher and 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is scheduled to catch Matt Cain for two innings, according to CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly.
As Baggarly points out, it's been 288 days since a home plate collision ended Posey's 2011 season. But after months of rehab, Posey is finally ready.
He ran the bases Thursday as one final test of his ankle, and manager Bruce Bochy said, "He's gotten over that hump."
Bochy said Posey will be off Saturday then catch four innings on Sunday.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Perez's chances for Opening Day[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: We're about three weeks from Opening Day and the Indians still have yet to give up on the chance that Perez makes it back in time, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Indians, though, are likely to play it safe with their closer, as an oblique injury can linger if not allowed to fully heal.
The good news is that Perez threw on Tuesday, making 45 throws from 60 feet in the first step back, reports MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
...
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced in late February that Perez will miss four-to-six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Perez's value takes a hit
Spoiler [+]
LAKELAND, Fla. -- The Cardinals' signing of Yadier Molina to a $75 million deal changes the landscape for the Atlanta Braves, as the possible free agency of Brian McCann looms at the end of 2013. The cost of high-priced catching just went up dramatically.
Atlanta holds a $12 million option on McCann for next season, and then the Braves must decide whether to invest an annual salary in the catcher that might absorb somewhere between 15 percent and 22 percent of their entire budget.
And keep in mind: The Braves' payroll is not growing. All around baseball, new TV contracts are filling the bankrolls of the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, etc. But Atlanta's television contract is locked into place for the next generation, and its payroll has remained stagnant.
2001: $92 million
2002: $94 million
2003: $106 million
2004: $90 million
2005: $86 million
2006: $90 million
2007: $87 million
2008: $102 million
2009: $97 million
2010: $84 million
2011: $91 million
Payrolls are growing all over baseball, but not in Atlanta. Salaries are climbing, but the Braves' budget is not.
Another way to look at the Braves' glacial drift is to consider their payroll standing relative to the rest of the majors.
In the late '90s, Atlanta typically had one of the highest payrolls in baseball … but that's no longer the case. Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information dug out the Braves' annual payroll ranking among all the teams in baseball (source: USA Today.)
2011: 15th
2010: 15th
2009: 11th
2008: 10th
2007: 15th
2006: 9th
2005: 10th
2004: 8th
2003: 3rd
2002: 7th
2001: 6th
2000: 4th
1999: 3rd
1998: 3rd
1997: 5th
1996: 3rd
1995: 3rd
1994: 3rd
1993: 7th
1992: 11th
1991: 20th
1990: 23rd
1989: 22nd
1988: 18th
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff is compliant by nature, so the statement the Athletics issued Wednesday seems to signal the start of an aggressive new chapter in the team's effort to move to San Jose. And hey, why not -- today is the 1,078th day since MLB announced the formation of a blue-ribbon committee to study the Athletics/Giants/San Jose situation, which is 776 days longer than it took the Warren Commission to issue its report about the Kennedy assassination to President Lyndon B. Johnson.
From the perspective of the Athletics' current regime, there is probably a feeling that they have nothing to lose, and they could consider all options, from calling for votes to encouraging the city of San Jose to file lawsuits. After all, is it really baseball's place to tell the 10th-largest city in the U.S. -- a wealthy place that is basically home to Apple and Google and other large companies -- that it can't have a big league team?
You could call it a changeup pitch that has a purpose, writes Mark Purdy.
The San Francisco Giants issued a statement, too, as John Shea writes.
• Yu Darvish was The Man on Wednesday, dominating San Diego hitters for two innings, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes, as Jeff Wilson writes. Padres manager Bud Black was impressed but warned of the hurdles ahead, as Gerry Fraley writes. Darvish tweeted to those who watched him in Japan, writes Evan Grant.
Richard Durrett has a complete breakdown of his start.
• There is early debate on whether Marlins Park -- which should always be known as The Fish Tank -- is more of a pitcher's park or a hitter's park, but Giancarlo Stanton can hit the ball out of any park. He killed the ball in batting practice, as Joe Capozzi writes.
By the way: The Miami Marlins have had talks in formulating an offer to Stanton, and at some point soon -- sometime this spring, perhaps -- they are expected to present a large crooked number in a contract for the outfielder, to gauge his interest.
• On Feb. 16, just before the start of the Tigers' camp, Miguel Cabrera looked like he was in significantly better condition, having dropped close to 30 pounds.
About 10 days later, he seemed to have lost even more weight, as he went deeper into his preparation for third base.
On Wednesday, Cabrera walked into the Detroit clubhouse at 8 a.m., again looking as if he has continued to improve his condition. At 8:15, he was on the field, taking ground balls at third base from Rafael Belliard. Cabrera looks completely different than he did during the playoffs last year when he appeared to be something close to about 290 pounds, and he is working like crazy to make his shift to third base work. "He is a really proud guy," said one member of the Tigers' organization.
He made a tough play in Wednesday's game, as Tom Gage writes.
• Word in Tigers' camp is that center fielder Austin Jackson is making more and better contact after affecting some adjustments with his swing. This is a good thing, because only one hitter in all of the major leagues fell into a higher percentage of counts of no balls and two strikes or 1-2 in 2011.
From Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information, the highest percentage of plate appearances that went to 0-2 or 1-2:
1. Miguel Olivo: 44.0
2. Jackson: 43.4
3. Mark Reynolds: 42.9
4. Curtis Granderson: 42.1
5. Alfonso Soriano: 40.7
6. (tie) Drew Stubbs, Jayson Werth: 40.2
8. (tie) Adam Jones, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson: 40.0
The lowest percentage of plate appearances that veered into 0-2, 1-2 counts:
1. Jimmy Rollins: 12.7
2. Vladimir Guerrero: 12.9
3. Ian Kinsler: 13.4
4. Victor Martinez: 13.8
5. (tie) Jose Reyes, Ben Zobrist: 14.1
7. (tie) Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff, Chipper Jones: 14.5
Jackson is also learning how to bunt, writes George Sipple.
• Brandon Morrow is working on a lot of soft stuff this spring, as Bob Elliott writes. Incredibly, Morrow generated a total of one double-play grounder in 179.1 innings -- by far the fewest for any pitcher with at least 160 innings in the big leagues last year -- and he is looking for ways to develop an off-speed pitch. The changeup is a difficult pitch for him to throw because of the way his hand pronates, so he is focusing on developing a curveball this spring.
• Watched Jacob Turner's rough outing Wednesday, in which he threw 19 strikes among 47 pitches, and a couple of things jumped out. First, he really struggled to make an adjustment in his delivery, which he acknowledged afterward. And second, the explosive fastball that other teams saw in his first spring is just not there yet -- Turner was throwing mostly 91-92 mph.
The Tigers have a bunch of young pitchers vying for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, and given how solid the rest of the starters are -- from Justin Verlander to Doug Fister to Max Scherzer to Rick Porcello -- the most important thing for the last spot might be predictability. What the Tigers cannot have is somebody who struggles to throw strikes, who lasts 3 2/3 innings and crushes the Detroit bullpen.
And this might mean that Drew Smyly is the front-runner, because he throws strikes.
Turner is still in the running, of course, as Tom Gage writes.
• An Angels scout was chased out of the park at the request of a manager, but the two sides are saying it was a miscommunication.
• Spring training stats don't really mean much, but they are sure interesting to look at. Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates is 8-for-11 so far, with an OPS of 1.818.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas GM Jon Daniels was initially irked by something that Josh Hamilton said.
2. A bankruptcy judge is urging a settlement in the Dodgers' Bryan Stow case, as Bill Shaikin writes.
3. The Nationals' COO all but guaranteed that Bryce Harper will make his debut in 2012.
4. Sandy Alderson may not have the clout to fix the New York Mets, writes Bob Klapisch.
5. Dusty Baker hasn't decided who his leadoff hitter will be.
6. The Chicago Cubs seem interested in rebuilding a foundation.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddie Freeman says his knee feels great.
2. Josh Collmenter was scratched because of forearm tightness.
3. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez could play on Friday.
4. Adam LaRoche is just about ready to go.
5. Andrew Miller was scratched because of elbow stiffness.
6. Dontrelle Willis' struggles continue. The Phillies' pitching coach seemed perturbed, writes Jim Salisbury.
7. Bill Bray was told to rest.
8. Corey Hart is feeling good after his knee surgery.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. An ex-catcher is vying to be part of the Houston bullpen, as Zachary Levine writes.
2. It appears Kris Medlen will be back in the bullpen, writes David O'Brien.
3. Nolan Arenado wants to make the Colorado Rockies' roster at the start of the season.
4. Kyle Blanks is getting a fresh start with the Padres, writes Bill Center.
5. Mike Aviles is prepping at shortstop. It seems like a done deal that Aviles will open the season as Boston's primary shortstop.
6. Aroldis Chapman remains a mystery, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. Yonder Alonso is starting over with the Padres, as Hal McCoy writes.
8. Mat Gamel has a measured approached in his effort to be the Milwaukee first baseman.
9. A bunch of guys are competing for the Chicago White Sox closer job.
10. Chone Figgins is proud to be able to play all over the field.
11. The Pirates will have to decide whether to keep a big, hard thrower.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Jamie Moyer, months away from qualifying for his AARP card, lit up the radar guns on Wednesday.
2. Yoenis Cespedes had a good day.
3. Shelby Miller's first spring start went well, as Derrick Goold writes.
4. Some sloppy defense did not help the Royals' Jonathan Sanchez, as Bob Dutton writes.
5. Jordan Zimmermann was excellent in three innings, as Amanda Comak writes.
6. Hiroki Kuroda had some modest results.
7. Jon Lester got his work in.
8. An Orioles pitcher looked good.
9. A Mets pitcher looked good.
10. A Minnesota Twins reliever was hit hard.
11. Jake Peavy pitched and was happy to be healthy.
Atlanta holds a $12 million option on McCann for next season, and then the Braves must decide whether to invest an annual salary in the catcher that might absorb somewhere between 15 percent and 22 percent of their entire budget.
And keep in mind: The Braves' payroll is not growing. All around baseball, new TV contracts are filling the bankrolls of the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, etc. But Atlanta's television contract is locked into place for the next generation, and its payroll has remained stagnant.
2001: $92 million
2002: $94 million
2003: $106 million
2004: $90 million
2005: $86 million
2006: $90 million
2007: $87 million
2008: $102 million
2009: $97 million
2010: $84 million
2011: $91 million
Payrolls are growing all over baseball, but not in Atlanta. Salaries are climbing, but the Braves' budget is not.
Another way to look at the Braves' glacial drift is to consider their payroll standing relative to the rest of the majors.
In the late '90s, Atlanta typically had one of the highest payrolls in baseball … but that's no longer the case. Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information dug out the Braves' annual payroll ranking among all the teams in baseball (source: USA Today.)
2011: 15th
2010: 15th
2009: 11th
2008: 10th
2007: 15th
2006: 9th
2005: 10th
2004: 8th
2003: 3rd
2002: 7th
2001: 6th
2000: 4th
1999: 3rd
1998: 3rd
1997: 5th
1996: 3rd
1995: 3rd
1994: 3rd
1993: 7th
1992: 11th
1991: 20th
1990: 23rd
1989: 22nd
1988: 18th
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff is compliant by nature, so the statement the Athletics issued Wednesday seems to signal the start of an aggressive new chapter in the team's effort to move to San Jose. And hey, why not -- today is the 1,078th day since MLB announced the formation of a blue-ribbon committee to study the Athletics/Giants/San Jose situation, which is 776 days longer than it took the Warren Commission to issue its report about the Kennedy assassination to President Lyndon B. Johnson.
From the perspective of the Athletics' current regime, there is probably a feeling that they have nothing to lose, and they could consider all options, from calling for votes to encouraging the city of San Jose to file lawsuits. After all, is it really baseball's place to tell the 10th-largest city in the U.S. -- a wealthy place that is basically home to Apple and Google and other large companies -- that it can't have a big league team?
You could call it a changeup pitch that has a purpose, writes Mark Purdy.
The San Francisco Giants issued a statement, too, as John Shea writes.
• Yu Darvish was The Man on Wednesday, dominating San Diego hitters for two innings, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes, as Jeff Wilson writes. Padres manager Bud Black was impressed but warned of the hurdles ahead, as Gerry Fraley writes. Darvish tweeted to those who watched him in Japan, writes Evan Grant.
Richard Durrett has a complete breakdown of his start.
• There is early debate on whether Marlins Park -- which should always be known as The Fish Tank -- is more of a pitcher's park or a hitter's park, but Giancarlo Stanton can hit the ball out of any park. He killed the ball in batting practice, as Joe Capozzi writes.
By the way: The Miami Marlins have had talks in formulating an offer to Stanton, and at some point soon -- sometime this spring, perhaps -- they are expected to present a large crooked number in a contract for the outfielder, to gauge his interest.
• On Feb. 16, just before the start of the Tigers' camp, Miguel Cabrera looked like he was in significantly better condition, having dropped close to 30 pounds.
About 10 days later, he seemed to have lost even more weight, as he went deeper into his preparation for third base.
On Wednesday, Cabrera walked into the Detroit clubhouse at 8 a.m., again looking as if he has continued to improve his condition. At 8:15, he was on the field, taking ground balls at third base from Rafael Belliard. Cabrera looks completely different than he did during the playoffs last year when he appeared to be something close to about 290 pounds, and he is working like crazy to make his shift to third base work. "He is a really proud guy," said one member of the Tigers' organization.
He made a tough play in Wednesday's game, as Tom Gage writes.
• Word in Tigers' camp is that center fielder Austin Jackson is making more and better contact after affecting some adjustments with his swing. This is a good thing, because only one hitter in all of the major leagues fell into a higher percentage of counts of no balls and two strikes or 1-2 in 2011.
From Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information, the highest percentage of plate appearances that went to 0-2 or 1-2:
1. Miguel Olivo: 44.0
2. Jackson: 43.4
3. Mark Reynolds: 42.9
4. Curtis Granderson: 42.1
5. Alfonso Soriano: 40.7
6. (tie) Drew Stubbs, Jayson Werth: 40.2
8. (tie) Adam Jones, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson: 40.0
The lowest percentage of plate appearances that veered into 0-2, 1-2 counts:
1. Jimmy Rollins: 12.7
2. Vladimir Guerrero: 12.9
3. Ian Kinsler: 13.4
4. Victor Martinez: 13.8
5. (tie) Jose Reyes, Ben Zobrist: 14.1
7. (tie) Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff, Chipper Jones: 14.5
Jackson is also learning how to bunt, writes George Sipple.
• Brandon Morrow is working on a lot of soft stuff this spring, as Bob Elliott writes. Incredibly, Morrow generated a total of one double-play grounder in 179.1 innings -- by far the fewest for any pitcher with at least 160 innings in the big leagues last year -- and he is looking for ways to develop an off-speed pitch. The changeup is a difficult pitch for him to throw because of the way his hand pronates, so he is focusing on developing a curveball this spring.
• Watched Jacob Turner's rough outing Wednesday, in which he threw 19 strikes among 47 pitches, and a couple of things jumped out. First, he really struggled to make an adjustment in his delivery, which he acknowledged afterward. And second, the explosive fastball that other teams saw in his first spring is just not there yet -- Turner was throwing mostly 91-92 mph.
The Tigers have a bunch of young pitchers vying for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, and given how solid the rest of the starters are -- from Justin Verlander to Doug Fister to Max Scherzer to Rick Porcello -- the most important thing for the last spot might be predictability. What the Tigers cannot have is somebody who struggles to throw strikes, who lasts 3 2/3 innings and crushes the Detroit bullpen.
And this might mean that Drew Smyly is the front-runner, because he throws strikes.
Turner is still in the running, of course, as Tom Gage writes.
• An Angels scout was chased out of the park at the request of a manager, but the two sides are saying it was a miscommunication.
• Spring training stats don't really mean much, but they are sure interesting to look at. Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates is 8-for-11 so far, with an OPS of 1.818.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas GM Jon Daniels was initially irked by something that Josh Hamilton said.
2. A bankruptcy judge is urging a settlement in the Dodgers' Bryan Stow case, as Bill Shaikin writes.
3. The Nationals' COO all but guaranteed that Bryce Harper will make his debut in 2012.
4. Sandy Alderson may not have the clout to fix the New York Mets, writes Bob Klapisch.
5. Dusty Baker hasn't decided who his leadoff hitter will be.
6. The Chicago Cubs seem interested in rebuilding a foundation.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddie Freeman says his knee feels great.
2. Josh Collmenter was scratched because of forearm tightness.
3. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez could play on Friday.
4. Adam LaRoche is just about ready to go.
5. Andrew Miller was scratched because of elbow stiffness.
6. Dontrelle Willis' struggles continue. The Phillies' pitching coach seemed perturbed, writes Jim Salisbury.
7. Bill Bray was told to rest.
8. Corey Hart is feeling good after his knee surgery.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. An ex-catcher is vying to be part of the Houston bullpen, as Zachary Levine writes.
2. It appears Kris Medlen will be back in the bullpen, writes David O'Brien.
3. Nolan Arenado wants to make the Colorado Rockies' roster at the start of the season.
4. Kyle Blanks is getting a fresh start with the Padres, writes Bill Center.
5. Mike Aviles is prepping at shortstop. It seems like a done deal that Aviles will open the season as Boston's primary shortstop.
6. Aroldis Chapman remains a mystery, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. Yonder Alonso is starting over with the Padres, as Hal McCoy writes.
8. Mat Gamel has a measured approached in his effort to be the Milwaukee first baseman.
9. A bunch of guys are competing for the Chicago White Sox closer job.
10. Chone Figgins is proud to be able to play all over the field.
11. The Pirates will have to decide whether to keep a big, hard thrower.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Jamie Moyer, months away from qualifying for his AARP card, lit up the radar guns on Wednesday.
2. Yoenis Cespedes had a good day.
3. Shelby Miller's first spring start went well, as Derrick Goold writes.
4. Some sloppy defense did not help the Royals' Jonathan Sanchez, as Bob Dutton writes.
5. Jordan Zimmermann was excellent in three innings, as Amanda Comak writes.
6. Hiroki Kuroda had some modest results.
7. Jon Lester got his work in.
8. An Orioles pitcher looked good.
9. A Mets pitcher looked good.
10. A Minnesota Twins reliever was hit hard.
11. Jake Peavy pitched and was happy to be healthy.
Ryan Braun's 'real story'.
Spoiler [+]
Ryan Braun says the real story regarding his positive drug test and subsequent successful appeal hasn't been told.
From Tom Haudricourt's blog:
Separately: The head of the Players Association, Michael Weiner, had good things to say about the Mets' owners, and within Andy Martino's story, Weiner addresses the fact that many players are skeptical about Ryan Braun's defense:
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• David Robertson got hurt in a freak injury, and the New York Yankees are hoping that this is not a worst-case scenario. From David Waldstein's story:
Robertson allowed one homer and struck out 100 in 66.2 innings. Opposing batters hit just .170. Left-handers hitting just .156, with a .197 slugging percentage, which ranked fifth among all major-league pitchers with at least 20 innings last season.
Look, Robertson could come back and be perfectly fine. If he does not, remember that Joba Chamberlain is due back sometime in midseason, with his rehabilitation on track so far.
• Billy Beane talked with Tim Kawakami about the Athletics' San Jose situation. From the transcript in his blog:
• Jonathan Papelbon's shot at Boston Red Sox fans hurts, writes Michael Silverman.
• A rich guy stepped out of the bidding for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• Manny Ramirez is looking out for Yoenis Cespedes.
• Video of David Samson's controversial comments was released.
• There is an early opinion of the parking around The Fish Tank: It stinks, according to a fan.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. There is a Chase Utley reality, writes David Murphy.
2. A Seattle Mariners catcher suffered a broken wrist.
3. Buster Posey returns to the lineup today, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Nick Markakis has been cleared to play next week.
5. Sean Rodriguez hurt his finger.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Josh Beckett sees no reason to change.
2. The Pirates' sent a No. 1 pick to the minors. (This is not a surprise, by the way.)
3. The Mariners have changed their ticket plan, writes Larry Stone.
4. C.J. Nitkowski auditioned for a job.
5. With the injury to Bill Bray, Aroldis Chapman could be shifted back to the Cincinnati bullpen. Rival evaluators have thought this is inevitable.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge has been excellent in the Tigers' camp, says Dave Dombrowski.
2. A weird-throwing lefty is an intriguing option for the Kansas City Royals.
3. Jason Castro is fighting for the catching job in Houston.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Pirates' Starling Marte would be the MVP of the first week of spring training.
2. Washington's pitching has looked good in the first turn.
3. Mike Pelfrey had a bad day.
4. Francisco Liriano looked sharp. Joe Mauer is throwing better as well.
5. Carlos Zambrano is throwing well.
6. Hanley Ramirez is off to a good start.
7. The Atlanta Braves are 1-5.
8. Neftali Feliz worked on his offspeed stuff.
9. Adam Dunn had a really, really good day.
10. Edinson Volquez came out firing.
From Tom Haudricourt's blog:
- After socking his first spring homer Thursday against Cincinnati -- which also was his first hit -- Ryan Braun was asked by visiting reporters what he hears from other players about his drug-test saga over the winter.
- Braun says he gets support from players who he has told "the real story."
- Braun was asked if the real story ever would be told -- giving him another chance to do so -- but all he said is "I highly doubt it. They're probably not going to know too much more than they know now."
- "People are going to have different opinions," added Braun. "Most of them don't know the real story. It's tough sometime to base your opinion or fomulate a decision when you don't know what happened. Overall, everybody has been real supportive."
- So, no new information on that front. As for the "real story," I guess we'll all have to wait to see if it ever comes out, from Braun or anyone else.
Separately: The head of the Players Association, Michael Weiner, had good things to say about the Mets' owners, and within Andy Martino's story, Weiner addresses the fact that many players are skeptical about Ryan Braun's defense:
- "I'm glad that players have questions. Players have questions about the Braun case. They have questions about blood testing. They have questions about other changes that we have made. That's healthy."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• David Robertson got hurt in a freak injury, and the New York Yankees are hoping that this is not a worst-case scenario. From David Waldstein's story:
- For now, the worst fear is that Robertson has an injury similar to the one that ended Chien-Ming Wang's season on June 15, 2008, and might have been linked to his career-altering shoulder problem.
- Wang sprained the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot while running the bases in an interleague game that day. He was helped off the field and rode a cart from the clubhouse and was on crutches until July 29. He also tore a muscle in the foot, the peroneus longus, at the time.
- The Lisfranc ligament is a tough band of tissue that links the midfoot and front foot and is vital in maintaining the alignment of the foot. It usually heals without surgery, but full recovery can require 8 to 12 weeks. Like Wang's injury, Robertson's was said to be in the middle of the foot.
- "Everyone's going to assume Lisfranc," Girardi said. "Obviously, I think you have to be concerned about that. But there was no swelling, so that's a positive sign for me. But who knows? He was more sore underneath, so we'll have to wait and see."
Robertson allowed one homer and struck out 100 in 66.2 innings. Opposing batters hit just .170. Left-handers hitting just .156, with a .197 slugging percentage, which ranked fifth among all major-league pitchers with at least 20 innings last season.
Look, Robertson could come back and be perfectly fine. If he does not, remember that Joba Chamberlain is due back sometime in midseason, with his rehabilitation on track so far.
• Billy Beane talked with Tim Kawakami about the Athletics' San Jose situation. From the transcript in his blog:
- Q: You'd mentioned months ago that you had indications this could be decided soon ...
- BEANE: Well, we've been told that for a long time; that it was very soon. Unfortunately, I guess, the definition of "very soon" is up for debate at this point. I think yesterday is an indication that it's time for us to move forward one way or the other.
- Q: Did you guys hear anything from the commissioner's office after yesterday's exchange? Were you told to settle down?
- BEANE: [owner] Lew [Wolff] communicates with the commissioner's office more than I, so if it did, it would come to him. But I haven't heard anything. It's inevitable something like this is going to happen when something goes on this long. Hopefully for both sides we get some resolution.
- Q: When do you say, 'that's enough of this, I'm not doing it again as a GM'?
- BEANE: Not yet. Listen, I do enjoy the challenge of this and the process. I've never sort of feared making what I thought was the tough or the right decision. Because the fact of the matter is if we were sitting in June and didn't do anything, everyone would've been writing, 'why didn't they tear this thing down?' You either do your math homework first period or you wait 'til fifth period. I enjoy building something. But it's only fun building something if there's a light at the end of the tunnel. And right now the whole delay in this thing has frustrated us all. Because we're not in a position to connect with the people who've supported us since the '60s and we can't build bridges to a place that may be our home in the future. You're just in a complete state of limbo.
• Jonathan Papelbon's shot at Boston Red Sox fans hurts, writes Michael Silverman.
• A rich guy stepped out of the bidding for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• Manny Ramirez is looking out for Yoenis Cespedes.
• Video of David Samson's controversial comments was released.
• There is an early opinion of the parking around The Fish Tank: It stinks, according to a fan.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. There is a Chase Utley reality, writes David Murphy.
2. A Seattle Mariners catcher suffered a broken wrist.
3. Buster Posey returns to the lineup today, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Nick Markakis has been cleared to play next week.
5. Sean Rodriguez hurt his finger.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Josh Beckett sees no reason to change.
2. The Pirates' sent a No. 1 pick to the minors. (This is not a surprise, by the way.)
3. The Mariners have changed their ticket plan, writes Larry Stone.
4. C.J. Nitkowski auditioned for a job.
5. With the injury to Bill Bray, Aroldis Chapman could be shifted back to the Cincinnati bullpen. Rival evaluators have thought this is inevitable.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge has been excellent in the Tigers' camp, says Dave Dombrowski.
2. A weird-throwing lefty is an intriguing option for the Kansas City Royals.
3. Jason Castro is fighting for the catching job in Houston.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Pirates' Starling Marte would be the MVP of the first week of spring training.
2. Washington's pitching has looked good in the first turn.
3. Mike Pelfrey had a bad day.
4. Francisco Liriano looked sharp. Joe Mauer is throwing better as well.
5. Carlos Zambrano is throwing well.
6. Hanley Ramirez is off to a good start.
7. The Atlanta Braves are 1-5.
8. Neftali Feliz worked on his offspeed stuff.
9. Adam Dunn had a really, really good day.
10. Edinson Volquez came out firing.
Darvish shows nasty stuff in spring debut.
Spoiler [+]
Yu Darvish made his spring training debut on Wednesday in front of a rather disappointing Peoria crowd (announced at around 2,900, half of whom appeared to be paying attention), and in two innings he showed his full assortment of pitches and gave a tantalizing look at how he'll get big league hitters out.
Darvish sat 90-94 mph with his fastball over his two innings, 92-94 in the first and 90-93 in the second, attacking hitters all around the zone but really missing his location only once. He threw seven different pitches (by my count), with his hard slider at 82-83 a plus-plus offering with severe tilt, throwing it for strikes when he needed to but throwing it down and away from right-handers to generate chase swings.
He also threw a slurvier breaking ball at 78-79, distinct from the one true slow curveball he threw at 66 mph (generating a few laughs from the crowd members actually watching the game), but also threw a hard cutter at 87-89 that broke in and slightly down to left-handers. He threw one changeup that got away from him and didn't have great feel for his splitter, which didn't have the same bottom I expected to see.
Darvish got on top of the ball well and because he keeps his arm relatively close to his body as he drives toward the plate, the ball appears to come out of his shirt, and hitters will likely have some trouble picking the ball up or identifying spin early enough to lay off that vicious slider. Seven pitches is a lot for a starter in MLB -- I understand it's more common in Japan -- but with the fastball, slider, cutter and splitter, he'd have one of the 10 best arsenals in the league, and should have the control and aggressiveness to get the most out of it.
• Here's some notes on a few other prospects who appeared in the game, starting with San Diego right-hander Joe Wieland, acquired from Texas last summer in the Mike Adams trade. Wieland was 89-91 in his first inning but eventually touched 94 once and was 91-93 until he started to tire during a long second inning where he worked largely from the stretch. He's aggressive in and around the zone with the fastball but didn't have great secondary stuff on Wednesday, struggling to finish his curveball and not seeing much fade on his hard changeup.
• Right-hander Roman Mendez threw the seventh inning for the Rangers, working from 91 to 94 and showing inconsistent but sometimes above-average secondary stuff in a slider and changeup. Mendez, acquired from Boston in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia trade, has a very short arm action and the ball appears late, but his command is one step above "has no clue where it's going."
• Rangers lefty Miguel de los Santos, who also sometimes makes you question whether he could hit the broad side of a barn, was 89-92 with a changeup he couldn't harness that still generated swings and misses. If he can ever show just grade-45 command, he's a good big league reliever because of that changeup, but so far that command hasn't come.
• Texas played third base prospect Mike Olt (No. 75 on my top 100 prospect ranking) at first base, as third base seems to be occupied for the foreseeable future in Arlington. While Olt's bat is going to be ready before Adrian Beltre's contract runs out, his glove is wasted at first and I don't think his bat profiles as elite over there (while it might have at third). That said, the Rangers don't have a high-end first base prospect and I could see Olt being a better option there than Mitch Moreland as soon as the end of this year.
• I also got to see a few swings from Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano (No. 40), who just missed homering on a 92 mph fastball but struck out on three pitches in his next at-bat. In addition to possessing a strong body you'd expect to see on a football field, Liriano has tremendous bat speed and pretty easy power, but recognition of off-speed stuff will be the major variable in determining whether his performance lives up to his tools.
Darvish sat 90-94 mph with his fastball over his two innings, 92-94 in the first and 90-93 in the second, attacking hitters all around the zone but really missing his location only once. He threw seven different pitches (by my count), with his hard slider at 82-83 a plus-plus offering with severe tilt, throwing it for strikes when he needed to but throwing it down and away from right-handers to generate chase swings.
He also threw a slurvier breaking ball at 78-79, distinct from the one true slow curveball he threw at 66 mph (generating a few laughs from the crowd members actually watching the game), but also threw a hard cutter at 87-89 that broke in and slightly down to left-handers. He threw one changeup that got away from him and didn't have great feel for his splitter, which didn't have the same bottom I expected to see.
Darvish got on top of the ball well and because he keeps his arm relatively close to his body as he drives toward the plate, the ball appears to come out of his shirt, and hitters will likely have some trouble picking the ball up or identifying spin early enough to lay off that vicious slider. Seven pitches is a lot for a starter in MLB -- I understand it's more common in Japan -- but with the fastball, slider, cutter and splitter, he'd have one of the 10 best arsenals in the league, and should have the control and aggressiveness to get the most out of it.
• Here's some notes on a few other prospects who appeared in the game, starting with San Diego right-hander Joe Wieland, acquired from Texas last summer in the Mike Adams trade. Wieland was 89-91 in his first inning but eventually touched 94 once and was 91-93 until he started to tire during a long second inning where he worked largely from the stretch. He's aggressive in and around the zone with the fastball but didn't have great secondary stuff on Wednesday, struggling to finish his curveball and not seeing much fade on his hard changeup.
• Right-hander Roman Mendez threw the seventh inning for the Rangers, working from 91 to 94 and showing inconsistent but sometimes above-average secondary stuff in a slider and changeup. Mendez, acquired from Boston in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia trade, has a very short arm action and the ball appears late, but his command is one step above "has no clue where it's going."
• Rangers lefty Miguel de los Santos, who also sometimes makes you question whether he could hit the broad side of a barn, was 89-92 with a changeup he couldn't harness that still generated swings and misses. If he can ever show just grade-45 command, he's a good big league reliever because of that changeup, but so far that command hasn't come.
• Texas played third base prospect Mike Olt (No. 75 on my top 100 prospect ranking) at first base, as third base seems to be occupied for the foreseeable future in Arlington. While Olt's bat is going to be ready before Adrian Beltre's contract runs out, his glove is wasted at first and I don't think his bat profiles as elite over there (while it might have at third). That said, the Rangers don't have a high-end first base prospect and I could see Olt being a better option there than Mitch Moreland as soon as the end of this year.
• I also got to see a few swings from Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano (No. 40), who just missed homering on a 92 mph fastball but struck out on three pitches in his next at-bat. In addition to possessing a strong body you'd expect to see on a football field, Liriano has tremendous bat speed and pretty easy power, but recognition of off-speed stuff will be the major variable in determining whether his performance lives up to his tools.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Sanchez's spring debut next week[/h3]
8:44AM ET
[h5]Anibal Sanchez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Sanchez, we learned earlier this week, was scheduled to pitch Saturday after experiencing shoulder soreness. But word out of camp has Sanchez on the docket for Wednesday against the Rays, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Marlins righty threw off flat ground Thursday and pitching coach Randy St. Claire said it was a positive session.
...
Right-hander Anibal Sanchez is considered day-to-day by the Miami Marlins with some soreness in his right shoulder, reported Joe Frisaro this past week. While that isn't necessarily alarming news, Sanchez has a bit of atrack record of arm problems. He's already had Tommy John surgery.
Sanchez may very well be able to shake this off and get ready for the season, as he's not likely to be slated to pitch until at least the third or fourth game of the season, which are April 7-8, giving Sanchez more than four weeks to prepare. Frisaro updates this weekend in reporting Sanchez is feeling a little better but isn't expected to throw until Monday or Tuesday.
Should he start the season on the disabled list, Wade LeBlanc, Alex Sanabia and Brad Hand are the top candidates to start in Sanchez's place. In that scenario, assuming Sanchez was to be the No. 3 or 4 starter, the No. 5 starter likely moves up, leaving the No. 5 spot as the open one. The Marlins will need their fifth starter on April 9 unless they plan on passing on the chance to get Josh Johnson, who is coming off a shoulder injury himself, an extra day's rest.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Sanchez a major risk
8:44AM ET
[h5]Anibal Sanchez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Sanchez, we learned earlier this week, was scheduled to pitch Saturday after experiencing shoulder soreness. But word out of camp has Sanchez on the docket for Wednesday against the Rays, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Marlins righty threw off flat ground Thursday and pitching coach Randy St. Claire said it was a positive session.
...
Right-hander Anibal Sanchez is considered day-to-day by the Miami Marlins with some soreness in his right shoulder, reported Joe Frisaro this past week. While that isn't necessarily alarming news, Sanchez has a bit of atrack record of arm problems. He's already had Tommy John surgery.
Sanchez may very well be able to shake this off and get ready for the season, as he's not likely to be slated to pitch until at least the third or fourth game of the season, which are April 7-8, giving Sanchez more than four weeks to prepare. Frisaro updates this weekend in reporting Sanchez is feeling a little better but isn't expected to throw until Monday or Tuesday.
Should he start the season on the disabled list, Wade LeBlanc, Alex Sanabia and Brad Hand are the top candidates to start in Sanchez's place. In that scenario, assuming Sanchez was to be the No. 3 or 4 starter, the No. 5 starter likely moves up, leaving the No. 5 spot as the open one. The Marlins will need their fifth starter on April 9 unless they plan on passing on the chance to get Josh Johnson, who is coming off a shoulder injury himself, an extra day's rest.
- Jason A. Churchill
Sanchez a major risk
8:39AM ET
[h5]Jorge Soler [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The last we heard on Jorge Soler is that the Houston Astros were keeping tabs on the Cuban outfielder and that the Boston Red Sox were very much interested in the prospect, but we've yet to hear that he's been declared an official free agent by Major League Baseball, which is among the first steps -- along with establishing residency in a participating country -- just like we saw with Yoenis Cespedes.
The Chicago Cubs are expected to be an aggressive bidder once Soler hits the market, but Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wrote a few weeks back that the White Sox could outbid the Cubs, and any other bidder.
As for a guess as to how much Soler might warrant, MLB.com's Peter Gammons tweetedearlier this week that one scouting director told him he sees Soler signing with the Cubs for $27 million.
Previously, Miami Marlins president David Samson said in a radio interview his team is not interested in Soler, as per a tweet from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Cleveland Indians have worked out Soler on a number of occasions, tweeted Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer and Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted several weeks ago that the Yankees and Phillies were the two teams at the time that have been the most aggressive on Soler.
Phillies GM Ruben Aramo confirms his club's interest.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix, too,reported Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Considering the way things went down with Cespedes -- he signed with Oakland out of nowhere after the general belief was that the Miami Marlins were the heavy favorites -- anything can happen, including a mystery team or two. We have to believe, however, that with March looming -- and minor league camp opening soon -- that Soler will sign soon.
- Jason A. Churchill
Cespedes vs. Soler
http://[h3]No deal for Hamels yet[/h3]
8:34AM ET
[h5]Cole Hamels | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Hamels' agent John Boggs is leaving Clearwater, Fla., Thursday without completing a deal for Hamels, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. "At this point," Boggs said, "we're not going to discuss the negotiations. But I'm trying to remain positive. And that's all I'd like to say."
No deadline has been set by either side, but it's common for clubs and players to try and avoid negotiations during the season in order to stave off potential distractions to the player and team.
...
UPDATE: John Boggs, the agent for Hamels, is in Clearwater to begin negotiations with the Phillies on a long-term extension for his client, says David Murphy in Wednesday's Philadelphia Daily News.
--
Talks between the Philadelphia Phillis and left-hander Cole Hamels are picking up steam, reports Jim Salisbury.
It appear clear that there will be no discount given by Hamels, who is likely to cost the club more than $100 million to keep around, which would give them two pitchers and a first baseman owed more than $100 million.
The pending free agency of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino could be impacted by any large extension for Hamels, who is from Southern California and could be an attractive free agent next offseason for a club such as the Dodgers, and even the Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Posey back behind plate[/h3]
8:31AM ET
[h5]Buster Posey | Giants [/h5]
It's been almost 10 months since Buster Posey took his place behind the dish in real game action. That's expected to change Friday.
The Giants catcher and 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is scheduled to catch Matt Cain for two innings, according to CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly.
As Baggarly points out, it's been 288 days since a home plate collision ended Posey's 2011 season. But after months of rehab, Posey is finally ready.
He ran the bases Thursday as one final test of his ankle, and manager Bruce Bochy said, "He's gotten over that hump."
Bochy said Posey will be off Saturday then catch four innings on Sunday.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Perez's chances for Opening Day[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: We're about three weeks from Opening Day and the Indians still have yet to give up on the chance that Perez makes it back in time, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Indians, though, are likely to play it safe with their closer, as an oblique injury can linger if not allowed to fully heal.
The good news is that Perez threw on Tuesday, making 45 throws from 60 feet in the first step back, reports MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
...
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced in late February that Perez will miss four-to-six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
- Doug Mittler
Perez's value takes a hit
Atlanta's costly payroll problem.
Ryan Braun's 'real story'.
Darvish shows nasty stuff in spring debut.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Soler buzz[/h3]
8:39AM ET
[h5]Jorge Soler [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The last we heard on Jorge Soler is that the Houston Astros were keeping tabs on the Cuban outfielder and that the Boston Red Sox were very much interested in the prospect, but we've yet to hear that he's been declared an official free agent by Major League Baseball, which is among the first steps -- along with establishing residency in a participating country -- just like we saw with Yoenis Cespedes.
The Chicago Cubs are expected to be an aggressive bidder once Soler hits the market, but Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wrote a few weeks back that the White Sox could outbid the Cubs, and any other bidder.
As for a guess as to how much Soler might warrant, MLB.com's Peter Gammons tweetedearlier this week that one scouting director told him he sees Soler signing with the Cubs for $27 million.
Previously, Miami Marlins president David Samson said in a radio interview his team is not interested in Soler, as per a tweet from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Cleveland Indians have worked out Soler on a number of occasions, tweeted Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer and Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted several weeks ago that the Yankees and Phillies were the two teams at the time that have been the most aggressive on Soler.
Phillies GM Ruben Aramo confirms his club's interest.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix, too,reported Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Considering the way things went down with Cespedes -- he signed with Oakland out of nowhere after the general belief was that the Miami Marlins were the heavy favorites -- anything can happen, including a mystery team or two. We have to believe, however, that with March looming -- and minor league camp opening soon -- that Soler will sign soon.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Cespedes vs. Soler
http://[h3]No deal for Hamels yet[/h3]
8:34AM ET
[h5]Cole Hamels | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Hamels' agent John Boggs is leaving Clearwater, Fla., Thursday without completing a deal for Hamels, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. "At this point," Boggs said, "we're not going to discuss the negotiations. But I'm trying to remain positive. And that's all I'd like to say."
No deadline has been set by either side, but it's common for clubs and players to try and avoid negotiations during the season in order to stave off potential distractions to the player and team.
...
UPDATE: John Boggs, the agent for Hamels, is in Clearwater to begin negotiations with the Phillies on a long-term extension for his client, says David Murphy in Wednesday's Philadelphia Daily News.
--
Talks between the Philadelphia Phillis and left-hander Cole Hamels are picking up steam, reports Jim Salisbury.
It appear clear that there will be no discount given by Hamels, who is likely to cost the club more than $100 million to keep around, which would give them two pitchers and a first baseman owed more than $100 million.
The pending free agency of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino could be impacted by any large extension for Hamels, who is from Southern California and could be an attractive free agent next offseason for a club such as the Dodgers, and even the Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Posey back behind plate[/h3]
8:31AM ET
[h5]Buster Posey | Giants [/h5]
It's been almost 10 months since Buster Posey took his place behind the dish in real game action. That's expected to change Friday.
The Giants catcher and 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is scheduled to catch Matt Cain for two innings, according to CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly.
As Baggarly points out, it's been 288 days since a home plate collision ended Posey's 2011 season. But after months of rehab, Posey is finally ready.
He ran the bases Thursday as one final test of his ankle, and manager Bruce Bochy said, "He's gotten over that hump."
Bochy said Posey will be off Saturday then catch four innings on Sunday.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Perez's chances for Opening Day[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: We're about three weeks from Opening Day and the Indians still have yet to give up on the chance that Perez makes it back in time, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Indians, though, are likely to play it safe with their closer, as an oblique injury can linger if not allowed to fully heal.
The good news is that Perez threw on Tuesday, making 45 throws from 60 feet in the first step back, reports MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
...
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced in late February that Perez will miss four-to-six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Perez's value takes a hit
Spoiler [+]
LAKELAND, Fla. -- The Cardinals' signing of Yadier Molina to a $75 million deal changes the landscape for the Atlanta Braves, as the possible free agency of Brian McCann looms at the end of 2013. The cost of high-priced catching just went up dramatically.
Atlanta holds a $12 million option on McCann for next season, and then the Braves must decide whether to invest an annual salary in the catcher that might absorb somewhere between 15 percent and 22 percent of their entire budget.
And keep in mind: The Braves' payroll is not growing. All around baseball, new TV contracts are filling the bankrolls of the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, etc. But Atlanta's television contract is locked into place for the next generation, and its payroll has remained stagnant.
2001: $92 million
2002: $94 million
2003: $106 million
2004: $90 million
2005: $86 million
2006: $90 million
2007: $87 million
2008: $102 million
2009: $97 million
2010: $84 million
2011: $91 million
Payrolls are growing all over baseball, but not in Atlanta. Salaries are climbing, but the Braves' budget is not.
Another way to look at the Braves' glacial drift is to consider their payroll standing relative to the rest of the majors.
In the late '90s, Atlanta typically had one of the highest payrolls in baseball … but that's no longer the case. Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information dug out the Braves' annual payroll ranking among all the teams in baseball (source: USA Today.)
2011: 15th
2010: 15th
2009: 11th
2008: 10th
2007: 15th
2006: 9th
2005: 10th
2004: 8th
2003: 3rd
2002: 7th
2001: 6th
2000: 4th
1999: 3rd
1998: 3rd
1997: 5th
1996: 3rd
1995: 3rd
1994: 3rd
1993: 7th
1992: 11th
1991: 20th
1990: 23rd
1989: 22nd
1988: 18th
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff is compliant by nature, so the statement the Athletics issued Wednesday seems to signal the start of an aggressive new chapter in the team's effort to move to San Jose. And hey, why not -- today is the 1,078th day since MLB announced the formation of a blue-ribbon committee to study the Athletics/Giants/San Jose situation, which is 776 days longer than it took the Warren Commission to issue its report about the Kennedy assassination to President Lyndon B. Johnson.
From the perspective of the Athletics' current regime, there is probably a feeling that they have nothing to lose, and they could consider all options, from calling for votes to encouraging the city of San Jose to file lawsuits. After all, is it really baseball's place to tell the 10th-largest city in the U.S. -- a wealthy place that is basically home to Apple and Google and other large companies -- that it can't have a big league team?
You could call it a changeup pitch that has a purpose, writes Mark Purdy.
The San Francisco Giants issued a statement, too, as John Shea writes.
• Yu Darvish was The Man on Wednesday, dominating San Diego hitters for two innings, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes, as Jeff Wilson writes. Padres manager Bud Black was impressed but warned of the hurdles ahead, as Gerry Fraley writes. Darvish tweeted to those who watched him in Japan, writes Evan Grant.
Richard Durrett has a complete breakdown of his start.
• There is early debate on whether Marlins Park -- which should always be known as The Fish Tank -- is more of a pitcher's park or a hitter's park, but Giancarlo Stanton can hit the ball out of any park. He killed the ball in batting practice, as Joe Capozzi writes.
By the way: The Miami Marlins have had talks in formulating an offer to Stanton, and at some point soon -- sometime this spring, perhaps -- they are expected to present a large crooked number in a contract for the outfielder, to gauge his interest.
• On Feb. 16, just before the start of the Tigers' camp, Miguel Cabrera looked like he was in significantly better condition, having dropped close to 30 pounds.
About 10 days later, he seemed to have lost even more weight, as he went deeper into his preparation for third base.
On Wednesday, Cabrera walked into the Detroit clubhouse at 8 a.m., again looking as if he has continued to improve his condition. At 8:15, he was on the field, taking ground balls at third base from Rafael Belliard. Cabrera looks completely different than he did during the playoffs last year when he appeared to be something close to about 290 pounds, and he is working like crazy to make his shift to third base work. "He is a really proud guy," said one member of the Tigers' organization.
He made a tough play in Wednesday's game, as Tom Gage writes.
• Word in Tigers' camp is that center fielder Austin Jackson is making more and better contact after affecting some adjustments with his swing. This is a good thing, because only one hitter in all of the major leagues fell into a higher percentage of counts of no balls and two strikes or 1-2 in 2011.
From Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information, the highest percentage of plate appearances that went to 0-2 or 1-2:
1. Miguel Olivo: 44.0
2. Jackson: 43.4
3. Mark Reynolds: 42.9
4. Curtis Granderson: 42.1
5. Alfonso Soriano: 40.7
6. (tie) Drew Stubbs, Jayson Werth: 40.2
8. (tie) Adam Jones, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson: 40.0
The lowest percentage of plate appearances that veered into 0-2, 1-2 counts:
1. Jimmy Rollins: 12.7
2. Vladimir Guerrero: 12.9
3. Ian Kinsler: 13.4
4. Victor Martinez: 13.8
5. (tie) Jose Reyes, Ben Zobrist: 14.1
7. (tie) Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff, Chipper Jones: 14.5
Jackson is also learning how to bunt, writes George Sipple.
• Brandon Morrow is working on a lot of soft stuff this spring, as Bob Elliott writes. Incredibly, Morrow generated a total of one double-play grounder in 179.1 innings -- by far the fewest for any pitcher with at least 160 innings in the big leagues last year -- and he is looking for ways to develop an off-speed pitch. The changeup is a difficult pitch for him to throw because of the way his hand pronates, so he is focusing on developing a curveball this spring.
• Watched Jacob Turner's rough outing Wednesday, in which he threw 19 strikes among 47 pitches, and a couple of things jumped out. First, he really struggled to make an adjustment in his delivery, which he acknowledged afterward. And second, the explosive fastball that other teams saw in his first spring is just not there yet -- Turner was throwing mostly 91-92 mph.
The Tigers have a bunch of young pitchers vying for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, and given how solid the rest of the starters are -- from Justin Verlander to Doug Fister to Max Scherzer to Rick Porcello -- the most important thing for the last spot might be predictability. What the Tigers cannot have is somebody who struggles to throw strikes, who lasts 3 2/3 innings and crushes the Detroit bullpen.
And this might mean that Drew Smyly is the front-runner, because he throws strikes.
Turner is still in the running, of course, as Tom Gage writes.
• An Angels scout was chased out of the park at the request of a manager, but the two sides are saying it was a miscommunication.
• Spring training stats don't really mean much, but they are sure interesting to look at. Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates is 8-for-11 so far, with an OPS of 1.818.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas GM Jon Daniels was initially irked by something that Josh Hamilton said.
2. A bankruptcy judge is urging a settlement in the Dodgers' Bryan Stow case, as Bill Shaikin writes.
3. The Nationals' COO all but guaranteed that Bryce Harper will make his debut in 2012.
4. Sandy Alderson may not have the clout to fix the New York Mets, writes Bob Klapisch.
5. Dusty Baker hasn't decided who his leadoff hitter will be.
6. The Chicago Cubs seem interested in rebuilding a foundation.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddie Freeman says his knee feels great.
2. Josh Collmenter was scratched because of forearm tightness.
3. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez could play on Friday.
4. Adam LaRoche is just about ready to go.
5. Andrew Miller was scratched because of elbow stiffness.
6. Dontrelle Willis' struggles continue. The Phillies' pitching coach seemed perturbed, writes Jim Salisbury.
7. Bill Bray was told to rest.
8. Corey Hart is feeling good after his knee surgery.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. An ex-catcher is vying to be part of the Houston bullpen, as Zachary Levine writes.
2. It appears Kris Medlen will be back in the bullpen, writes David O'Brien.
3. Nolan Arenado wants to make the Colorado Rockies' roster at the start of the season.
4. Kyle Blanks is getting a fresh start with the Padres, writes Bill Center.
5. Mike Aviles is prepping at shortstop. It seems like a done deal that Aviles will open the season as Boston's primary shortstop.
6. Aroldis Chapman remains a mystery, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. Yonder Alonso is starting over with the Padres, as Hal McCoy writes.
8. Mat Gamel has a measured approached in his effort to be the Milwaukee first baseman.
9. A bunch of guys are competing for the Chicago White Sox closer job.
10. Chone Figgins is proud to be able to play all over the field.
11. The Pirates will have to decide whether to keep a big, hard thrower.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Jamie Moyer, months away from qualifying for his AARP card, lit up the radar guns on Wednesday.
2. Yoenis Cespedes had a good day.
3. Shelby Miller's first spring start went well, as Derrick Goold writes.
4. Some sloppy defense did not help the Royals' Jonathan Sanchez, as Bob Dutton writes.
5. Jordan Zimmermann was excellent in three innings, as Amanda Comak writes.
6. Hiroki Kuroda had some modest results.
7. Jon Lester got his work in.
8. An Orioles pitcher looked good.
9. A Mets pitcher looked good.
10. A Minnesota Twins reliever was hit hard.
11. Jake Peavy pitched and was happy to be healthy.
Atlanta holds a $12 million option on McCann for next season, and then the Braves must decide whether to invest an annual salary in the catcher that might absorb somewhere between 15 percent and 22 percent of their entire budget.
And keep in mind: The Braves' payroll is not growing. All around baseball, new TV contracts are filling the bankrolls of the Los Angeles Angels, Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres, etc. But Atlanta's television contract is locked into place for the next generation, and its payroll has remained stagnant.
2001: $92 million
2002: $94 million
2003: $106 million
2004: $90 million
2005: $86 million
2006: $90 million
2007: $87 million
2008: $102 million
2009: $97 million
2010: $84 million
2011: $91 million
Payrolls are growing all over baseball, but not in Atlanta. Salaries are climbing, but the Braves' budget is not.
Another way to look at the Braves' glacial drift is to consider their payroll standing relative to the rest of the majors.
In the late '90s, Atlanta typically had one of the highest payrolls in baseball … but that's no longer the case. Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information dug out the Braves' annual payroll ranking among all the teams in baseball (source: USA Today.)
2011: 15th
2010: 15th
2009: 11th
2008: 10th
2007: 15th
2006: 9th
2005: 10th
2004: 8th
2003: 3rd
2002: 7th
2001: 6th
2000: 4th
1999: 3rd
1998: 3rd
1997: 5th
1996: 3rd
1995: 3rd
1994: 3rd
1993: 7th
1992: 11th
1991: 20th
1990: 23rd
1989: 22nd
1988: 18th
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff is compliant by nature, so the statement the Athletics issued Wednesday seems to signal the start of an aggressive new chapter in the team's effort to move to San Jose. And hey, why not -- today is the 1,078th day since MLB announced the formation of a blue-ribbon committee to study the Athletics/Giants/San Jose situation, which is 776 days longer than it took the Warren Commission to issue its report about the Kennedy assassination to President Lyndon B. Johnson.
From the perspective of the Athletics' current regime, there is probably a feeling that they have nothing to lose, and they could consider all options, from calling for votes to encouraging the city of San Jose to file lawsuits. After all, is it really baseball's place to tell the 10th-largest city in the U.S. -- a wealthy place that is basically home to Apple and Google and other large companies -- that it can't have a big league team?
You could call it a changeup pitch that has a purpose, writes Mark Purdy.
The San Francisco Giants issued a statement, too, as John Shea writes.
• Yu Darvish was The Man on Wednesday, dominating San Diego hitters for two innings, throwing all seven of his pitches for strikes, as Jeff Wilson writes. Padres manager Bud Black was impressed but warned of the hurdles ahead, as Gerry Fraley writes. Darvish tweeted to those who watched him in Japan, writes Evan Grant.
Richard Durrett has a complete breakdown of his start.
• There is early debate on whether Marlins Park -- which should always be known as The Fish Tank -- is more of a pitcher's park or a hitter's park, but Giancarlo Stanton can hit the ball out of any park. He killed the ball in batting practice, as Joe Capozzi writes.
By the way: The Miami Marlins have had talks in formulating an offer to Stanton, and at some point soon -- sometime this spring, perhaps -- they are expected to present a large crooked number in a contract for the outfielder, to gauge his interest.
• On Feb. 16, just before the start of the Tigers' camp, Miguel Cabrera looked like he was in significantly better condition, having dropped close to 30 pounds.
About 10 days later, he seemed to have lost even more weight, as he went deeper into his preparation for third base.
On Wednesday, Cabrera walked into the Detroit clubhouse at 8 a.m., again looking as if he has continued to improve his condition. At 8:15, he was on the field, taking ground balls at third base from Rafael Belliard. Cabrera looks completely different than he did during the playoffs last year when he appeared to be something close to about 290 pounds, and he is working like crazy to make his shift to third base work. "He is a really proud guy," said one member of the Tigers' organization.
He made a tough play in Wednesday's game, as Tom Gage writes.
• Word in Tigers' camp is that center fielder Austin Jackson is making more and better contact after affecting some adjustments with his swing. This is a good thing, because only one hitter in all of the major leagues fell into a higher percentage of counts of no balls and two strikes or 1-2 in 2011.
From Keith Hawkins of ESPN Stats & Information, the highest percentage of plate appearances that went to 0-2 or 1-2:
1. Miguel Olivo: 44.0
2. Jackson: 43.4
3. Mark Reynolds: 42.9
4. Curtis Granderson: 42.1
5. Alfonso Soriano: 40.7
6. (tie) Drew Stubbs, Jayson Werth: 40.2
8. (tie) Adam Jones, Howie Kendrick, Kelly Johnson: 40.0
The lowest percentage of plate appearances that veered into 0-2, 1-2 counts:
1. Jimmy Rollins: 12.7
2. Vladimir Guerrero: 12.9
3. Ian Kinsler: 13.4
4. Victor Martinez: 13.8
5. (tie) Jose Reyes, Ben Zobrist: 14.1
7. (tie) Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Aubrey Huff, Chipper Jones: 14.5
Jackson is also learning how to bunt, writes George Sipple.
• Brandon Morrow is working on a lot of soft stuff this spring, as Bob Elliott writes. Incredibly, Morrow generated a total of one double-play grounder in 179.1 innings -- by far the fewest for any pitcher with at least 160 innings in the big leagues last year -- and he is looking for ways to develop an off-speed pitch. The changeup is a difficult pitch for him to throw because of the way his hand pronates, so he is focusing on developing a curveball this spring.
• Watched Jacob Turner's rough outing Wednesday, in which he threw 19 strikes among 47 pitches, and a couple of things jumped out. First, he really struggled to make an adjustment in his delivery, which he acknowledged afterward. And second, the explosive fastball that other teams saw in his first spring is just not there yet -- Turner was throwing mostly 91-92 mph.
The Tigers have a bunch of young pitchers vying for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, and given how solid the rest of the starters are -- from Justin Verlander to Doug Fister to Max Scherzer to Rick Porcello -- the most important thing for the last spot might be predictability. What the Tigers cannot have is somebody who struggles to throw strikes, who lasts 3 2/3 innings and crushes the Detroit bullpen.
And this might mean that Drew Smyly is the front-runner, because he throws strikes.
Turner is still in the running, of course, as Tom Gage writes.
• An Angels scout was chased out of the park at the request of a manager, but the two sides are saying it was a miscommunication.
• Spring training stats don't really mean much, but they are sure interesting to look at. Starling Marte of the Pittsburgh Pirates is 8-for-11 so far, with an OPS of 1.818.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Texas GM Jon Daniels was initially irked by something that Josh Hamilton said.
2. A bankruptcy judge is urging a settlement in the Dodgers' Bryan Stow case, as Bill Shaikin writes.
3. The Nationals' COO all but guaranteed that Bryce Harper will make his debut in 2012.
4. Sandy Alderson may not have the clout to fix the New York Mets, writes Bob Klapisch.
5. Dusty Baker hasn't decided who his leadoff hitter will be.
6. The Chicago Cubs seem interested in rebuilding a foundation.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddie Freeman says his knee feels great.
2. Josh Collmenter was scratched because of forearm tightness.
3. Buster Posey and Freddy Sanchez could play on Friday.
4. Adam LaRoche is just about ready to go.
5. Andrew Miller was scratched because of elbow stiffness.
6. Dontrelle Willis' struggles continue. The Phillies' pitching coach seemed perturbed, writes Jim Salisbury.
7. Bill Bray was told to rest.
8. Corey Hart is feeling good after his knee surgery.
[h3]The battle for jobs[/h3]
1. An ex-catcher is vying to be part of the Houston bullpen, as Zachary Levine writes.
2. It appears Kris Medlen will be back in the bullpen, writes David O'Brien.
3. Nolan Arenado wants to make the Colorado Rockies' roster at the start of the season.
4. Kyle Blanks is getting a fresh start with the Padres, writes Bill Center.
5. Mike Aviles is prepping at shortstop. It seems like a done deal that Aviles will open the season as Boston's primary shortstop.
6. Aroldis Chapman remains a mystery, writes Paul Daugherty.
7. Yonder Alonso is starting over with the Padres, as Hal McCoy writes.
8. Mat Gamel has a measured approached in his effort to be the Milwaukee first baseman.
9. A bunch of guys are competing for the Chicago White Sox closer job.
10. Chone Figgins is proud to be able to play all over the field.
11. The Pirates will have to decide whether to keep a big, hard thrower.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Jamie Moyer, months away from qualifying for his AARP card, lit up the radar guns on Wednesday.
2. Yoenis Cespedes had a good day.
3. Shelby Miller's first spring start went well, as Derrick Goold writes.
4. Some sloppy defense did not help the Royals' Jonathan Sanchez, as Bob Dutton writes.
5. Jordan Zimmermann was excellent in three innings, as Amanda Comak writes.
6. Hiroki Kuroda had some modest results.
7. Jon Lester got his work in.
8. An Orioles pitcher looked good.
9. A Mets pitcher looked good.
10. A Minnesota Twins reliever was hit hard.
11. Jake Peavy pitched and was happy to be healthy.
Ryan Braun's 'real story'.
Spoiler [+]
Ryan Braun says the real story regarding his positive drug test and subsequent successful appeal hasn't been told.
From Tom Haudricourt's blog:
Separately: The head of the Players Association, Michael Weiner, had good things to say about the Mets' owners, and within Andy Martino's story, Weiner addresses the fact that many players are skeptical about Ryan Braun's defense:
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• David Robertson got hurt in a freak injury, and the New York Yankees are hoping that this is not a worst-case scenario. From David Waldstein's story:
Robertson allowed one homer and struck out 100 in 66.2 innings. Opposing batters hit just .170. Left-handers hitting just .156, with a .197 slugging percentage, which ranked fifth among all major-league pitchers with at least 20 innings last season.
Look, Robertson could come back and be perfectly fine. If he does not, remember that Joba Chamberlain is due back sometime in midseason, with his rehabilitation on track so far.
• Billy Beane talked with Tim Kawakami about the Athletics' San Jose situation. From the transcript in his blog:
• Jonathan Papelbon's shot at Boston Red Sox fans hurts, writes Michael Silverman.
• A rich guy stepped out of the bidding for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• Manny Ramirez is looking out for Yoenis Cespedes.
• Video of David Samson's controversial comments was released.
• There is an early opinion of the parking around The Fish Tank: It stinks, according to a fan.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. There is a Chase Utley reality, writes David Murphy.
2. A Seattle Mariners catcher suffered a broken wrist.
3. Buster Posey returns to the lineup today, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Nick Markakis has been cleared to play next week.
5. Sean Rodriguez hurt his finger.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Josh Beckett sees no reason to change.
2. The Pirates' sent a No. 1 pick to the minors. (This is not a surprise, by the way.)
3. The Mariners have changed their ticket plan, writes Larry Stone.
4. C.J. Nitkowski auditioned for a job.
5. With the injury to Bill Bray, Aroldis Chapman could be shifted back to the Cincinnati bullpen. Rival evaluators have thought this is inevitable.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge has been excellent in the Tigers' camp, says Dave Dombrowski.
2. A weird-throwing lefty is an intriguing option for the Kansas City Royals.
3. Jason Castro is fighting for the catching job in Houston.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Pirates' Starling Marte would be the MVP of the first week of spring training.
2. Washington's pitching has looked good in the first turn.
3. Mike Pelfrey had a bad day.
4. Francisco Liriano looked sharp. Joe Mauer is throwing better as well.
5. Carlos Zambrano is throwing well.
6. Hanley Ramirez is off to a good start.
7. The Atlanta Braves are 1-5.
8. Neftali Feliz worked on his offspeed stuff.
9. Adam Dunn had a really, really good day.
10. Edinson Volquez came out firing.
From Tom Haudricourt's blog:
- After socking his first spring homer Thursday against Cincinnati -- which also was his first hit -- Ryan Braun was asked by visiting reporters what he hears from other players about his drug-test saga over the winter.
- Braun says he gets support from players who he has told "the real story."
- Braun was asked if the real story ever would be told -- giving him another chance to do so -- but all he said is "I highly doubt it. They're probably not going to know too much more than they know now."
- "People are going to have different opinions," added Braun. "Most of them don't know the real story. It's tough sometime to base your opinion or fomulate a decision when you don't know what happened. Overall, everybody has been real supportive."
- So, no new information on that front. As for the "real story," I guess we'll all have to wait to see if it ever comes out, from Braun or anyone else.
Separately: The head of the Players Association, Michael Weiner, had good things to say about the Mets' owners, and within Andy Martino's story, Weiner addresses the fact that many players are skeptical about Ryan Braun's defense:
- "I'm glad that players have questions. Players have questions about the Braun case. They have questions about blood testing. They have questions about other changes that we have made. That's healthy."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• David Robertson got hurt in a freak injury, and the New York Yankees are hoping that this is not a worst-case scenario. From David Waldstein's story:
- For now, the worst fear is that Robertson has an injury similar to the one that ended Chien-Ming Wang's season on June 15, 2008, and might have been linked to his career-altering shoulder problem.
- Wang sprained the Lisfranc ligament in his right foot while running the bases in an interleague game that day. He was helped off the field and rode a cart from the clubhouse and was on crutches until July 29. He also tore a muscle in the foot, the peroneus longus, at the time.
- The Lisfranc ligament is a tough band of tissue that links the midfoot and front foot and is vital in maintaining the alignment of the foot. It usually heals without surgery, but full recovery can require 8 to 12 weeks. Like Wang's injury, Robertson's was said to be in the middle of the foot.
- "Everyone's going to assume Lisfranc," Girardi said. "Obviously, I think you have to be concerned about that. But there was no swelling, so that's a positive sign for me. But who knows? He was more sore underneath, so we'll have to wait and see."
Robertson allowed one homer and struck out 100 in 66.2 innings. Opposing batters hit just .170. Left-handers hitting just .156, with a .197 slugging percentage, which ranked fifth among all major-league pitchers with at least 20 innings last season.
Look, Robertson could come back and be perfectly fine. If he does not, remember that Joba Chamberlain is due back sometime in midseason, with his rehabilitation on track so far.
• Billy Beane talked with Tim Kawakami about the Athletics' San Jose situation. From the transcript in his blog:
- Q: You'd mentioned months ago that you had indications this could be decided soon ...
- BEANE: Well, we've been told that for a long time; that it was very soon. Unfortunately, I guess, the definition of "very soon" is up for debate at this point. I think yesterday is an indication that it's time for us to move forward one way or the other.
- Q: Did you guys hear anything from the commissioner's office after yesterday's exchange? Were you told to settle down?
- BEANE: [owner] Lew [Wolff] communicates with the commissioner's office more than I, so if it did, it would come to him. But I haven't heard anything. It's inevitable something like this is going to happen when something goes on this long. Hopefully for both sides we get some resolution.
- Q: When do you say, 'that's enough of this, I'm not doing it again as a GM'?
- BEANE: Not yet. Listen, I do enjoy the challenge of this and the process. I've never sort of feared making what I thought was the tough or the right decision. Because the fact of the matter is if we were sitting in June and didn't do anything, everyone would've been writing, 'why didn't they tear this thing down?' You either do your math homework first period or you wait 'til fifth period. I enjoy building something. But it's only fun building something if there's a light at the end of the tunnel. And right now the whole delay in this thing has frustrated us all. Because we're not in a position to connect with the people who've supported us since the '60s and we can't build bridges to a place that may be our home in the future. You're just in a complete state of limbo.
• Jonathan Papelbon's shot at Boston Red Sox fans hurts, writes Michael Silverman.
• A rich guy stepped out of the bidding for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
• Manny Ramirez is looking out for Yoenis Cespedes.
• Video of David Samson's controversial comments was released.
• There is an early opinion of the parking around The Fish Tank: It stinks, according to a fan.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. There is a Chase Utley reality, writes David Murphy.
2. A Seattle Mariners catcher suffered a broken wrist.
3. Buster Posey returns to the lineup today, writes Henry Schulman.
4. Nick Markakis has been cleared to play next week.
5. Sean Rodriguez hurt his finger.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Josh Beckett sees no reason to change.
2. The Pirates' sent a No. 1 pick to the minors. (This is not a surprise, by the way.)
3. The Mariners have changed their ticket plan, writes Larry Stone.
4. C.J. Nitkowski auditioned for a job.
5. With the injury to Bill Bray, Aroldis Chapman could be shifted back to the Cincinnati bullpen. Rival evaluators have thought this is inevitable.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge has been excellent in the Tigers' camp, says Dave Dombrowski.
2. A weird-throwing lefty is an intriguing option for the Kansas City Royals.
3. Jason Castro is fighting for the catching job in Houston.
[h3]Thursday's games[/h3]
1. The Pirates' Starling Marte would be the MVP of the first week of spring training.
2. Washington's pitching has looked good in the first turn.
3. Mike Pelfrey had a bad day.
4. Francisco Liriano looked sharp. Joe Mauer is throwing better as well.
5. Carlos Zambrano is throwing well.
6. Hanley Ramirez is off to a good start.
7. The Atlanta Braves are 1-5.
8. Neftali Feliz worked on his offspeed stuff.
9. Adam Dunn had a really, really good day.
10. Edinson Volquez came out firing.
Darvish shows nasty stuff in spring debut.
Spoiler [+]
Yu Darvish made his spring training debut on Wednesday in front of a rather disappointing Peoria crowd (announced at around 2,900, half of whom appeared to be paying attention), and in two innings he showed his full assortment of pitches and gave a tantalizing look at how he'll get big league hitters out.
Darvish sat 90-94 mph with his fastball over his two innings, 92-94 in the first and 90-93 in the second, attacking hitters all around the zone but really missing his location only once. He threw seven different pitches (by my count), with his hard slider at 82-83 a plus-plus offering with severe tilt, throwing it for strikes when he needed to but throwing it down and away from right-handers to generate chase swings.
He also threw a slurvier breaking ball at 78-79, distinct from the one true slow curveball he threw at 66 mph (generating a few laughs from the crowd members actually watching the game), but also threw a hard cutter at 87-89 that broke in and slightly down to left-handers. He threw one changeup that got away from him and didn't have great feel for his splitter, which didn't have the same bottom I expected to see.
Darvish got on top of the ball well and because he keeps his arm relatively close to his body as he drives toward the plate, the ball appears to come out of his shirt, and hitters will likely have some trouble picking the ball up or identifying spin early enough to lay off that vicious slider. Seven pitches is a lot for a starter in MLB -- I understand it's more common in Japan -- but with the fastball, slider, cutter and splitter, he'd have one of the 10 best arsenals in the league, and should have the control and aggressiveness to get the most out of it.
• Here's some notes on a few other prospects who appeared in the game, starting with San Diego right-hander Joe Wieland, acquired from Texas last summer in the Mike Adams trade. Wieland was 89-91 in his first inning but eventually touched 94 once and was 91-93 until he started to tire during a long second inning where he worked largely from the stretch. He's aggressive in and around the zone with the fastball but didn't have great secondary stuff on Wednesday, struggling to finish his curveball and not seeing much fade on his hard changeup.
• Right-hander Roman Mendez threw the seventh inning for the Rangers, working from 91 to 94 and showing inconsistent but sometimes above-average secondary stuff in a slider and changeup. Mendez, acquired from Boston in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia trade, has a very short arm action and the ball appears late, but his command is one step above "has no clue where it's going."
• Rangers lefty Miguel de los Santos, who also sometimes makes you question whether he could hit the broad side of a barn, was 89-92 with a changeup he couldn't harness that still generated swings and misses. If he can ever show just grade-45 command, he's a good big league reliever because of that changeup, but so far that command hasn't come.
• Texas played third base prospect Mike Olt (No. 75 on my top 100 prospect ranking) at first base, as third base seems to be occupied for the foreseeable future in Arlington. While Olt's bat is going to be ready before Adrian Beltre's contract runs out, his glove is wasted at first and I don't think his bat profiles as elite over there (while it might have at third). That said, the Rangers don't have a high-end first base prospect and I could see Olt being a better option there than Mitch Moreland as soon as the end of this year.
• I also got to see a few swings from Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano (No. 40), who just missed homering on a 92 mph fastball but struck out on three pitches in his next at-bat. In addition to possessing a strong body you'd expect to see on a football field, Liriano has tremendous bat speed and pretty easy power, but recognition of off-speed stuff will be the major variable in determining whether his performance lives up to his tools.
Darvish sat 90-94 mph with his fastball over his two innings, 92-94 in the first and 90-93 in the second, attacking hitters all around the zone but really missing his location only once. He threw seven different pitches (by my count), with his hard slider at 82-83 a plus-plus offering with severe tilt, throwing it for strikes when he needed to but throwing it down and away from right-handers to generate chase swings.
He also threw a slurvier breaking ball at 78-79, distinct from the one true slow curveball he threw at 66 mph (generating a few laughs from the crowd members actually watching the game), but also threw a hard cutter at 87-89 that broke in and slightly down to left-handers. He threw one changeup that got away from him and didn't have great feel for his splitter, which didn't have the same bottom I expected to see.
Darvish got on top of the ball well and because he keeps his arm relatively close to his body as he drives toward the plate, the ball appears to come out of his shirt, and hitters will likely have some trouble picking the ball up or identifying spin early enough to lay off that vicious slider. Seven pitches is a lot for a starter in MLB -- I understand it's more common in Japan -- but with the fastball, slider, cutter and splitter, he'd have one of the 10 best arsenals in the league, and should have the control and aggressiveness to get the most out of it.
• Here's some notes on a few other prospects who appeared in the game, starting with San Diego right-hander Joe Wieland, acquired from Texas last summer in the Mike Adams trade. Wieland was 89-91 in his first inning but eventually touched 94 once and was 91-93 until he started to tire during a long second inning where he worked largely from the stretch. He's aggressive in and around the zone with the fastball but didn't have great secondary stuff on Wednesday, struggling to finish his curveball and not seeing much fade on his hard changeup.
• Right-hander Roman Mendez threw the seventh inning for the Rangers, working from 91 to 94 and showing inconsistent but sometimes above-average secondary stuff in a slider and changeup. Mendez, acquired from Boston in the Jarrod Saltalamacchia trade, has a very short arm action and the ball appears late, but his command is one step above "has no clue where it's going."
• Rangers lefty Miguel de los Santos, who also sometimes makes you question whether he could hit the broad side of a barn, was 89-92 with a changeup he couldn't harness that still generated swings and misses. If he can ever show just grade-45 command, he's a good big league reliever because of that changeup, but so far that command hasn't come.
• Texas played third base prospect Mike Olt (No. 75 on my top 100 prospect ranking) at first base, as third base seems to be occupied for the foreseeable future in Arlington. While Olt's bat is going to be ready before Adrian Beltre's contract runs out, his glove is wasted at first and I don't think his bat profiles as elite over there (while it might have at third). That said, the Rangers don't have a high-end first base prospect and I could see Olt being a better option there than Mitch Moreland as soon as the end of this year.
• I also got to see a few swings from Padres outfield prospect Rymer Liriano (No. 40), who just missed homering on a 92 mph fastball but struck out on three pitches in his next at-bat. In addition to possessing a strong body you'd expect to see on a football field, Liriano has tremendous bat speed and pretty easy power, but recognition of off-speed stuff will be the major variable in determining whether his performance lives up to his tools.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Sanchez's spring debut next week[/h3]
8:44AM ET
[h5]Anibal Sanchez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Sanchez, we learned earlier this week, was scheduled to pitch Saturday after experiencing shoulder soreness. But word out of camp has Sanchez on the docket for Wednesday against the Rays, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Marlins righty threw off flat ground Thursday and pitching coach Randy St. Claire said it was a positive session.
...
Right-hander Anibal Sanchez is considered day-to-day by the Miami Marlins with some soreness in his right shoulder, reported Joe Frisaro this past week. While that isn't necessarily alarming news, Sanchez has a bit of atrack record of arm problems. He's already had Tommy John surgery.
Sanchez may very well be able to shake this off and get ready for the season, as he's not likely to be slated to pitch until at least the third or fourth game of the season, which are April 7-8, giving Sanchez more than four weeks to prepare. Frisaro updates this weekend in reporting Sanchez is feeling a little better but isn't expected to throw until Monday or Tuesday.
Should he start the season on the disabled list, Wade LeBlanc, Alex Sanabia and Brad Hand are the top candidates to start in Sanchez's place. In that scenario, assuming Sanchez was to be the No. 3 or 4 starter, the No. 5 starter likely moves up, leaving the No. 5 spot as the open one. The Marlins will need their fifth starter on April 9 unless they plan on passing on the chance to get Josh Johnson, who is coming off a shoulder injury himself, an extra day's rest.
- Jason A. Churchill
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Sanchez a major risk
8:44AM ET
[h5]Anibal Sanchez | Marlins [/h5]
UPDATE: Sanchez, we learned earlier this week, was scheduled to pitch Saturday after experiencing shoulder soreness. But word out of camp has Sanchez on the docket for Wednesday against the Rays, according to MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Marlins righty threw off flat ground Thursday and pitching coach Randy St. Claire said it was a positive session.
...
Right-hander Anibal Sanchez is considered day-to-day by the Miami Marlins with some soreness in his right shoulder, reported Joe Frisaro this past week. While that isn't necessarily alarming news, Sanchez has a bit of atrack record of arm problems. He's already had Tommy John surgery.
Sanchez may very well be able to shake this off and get ready for the season, as he's not likely to be slated to pitch until at least the third or fourth game of the season, which are April 7-8, giving Sanchez more than four weeks to prepare. Frisaro updates this weekend in reporting Sanchez is feeling a little better but isn't expected to throw until Monday or Tuesday.
Should he start the season on the disabled list, Wade LeBlanc, Alex Sanabia and Brad Hand are the top candidates to start in Sanchez's place. In that scenario, assuming Sanchez was to be the No. 3 or 4 starter, the No. 5 starter likely moves up, leaving the No. 5 spot as the open one. The Marlins will need their fifth starter on April 9 unless they plan on passing on the chance to get Josh Johnson, who is coming off a shoulder injury himself, an extra day's rest.
- Jason A. Churchill
Sanchez a major risk
8:39AM ET
[h5]Jorge Soler [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
The last we heard on Jorge Soler is that the Houston Astros were keeping tabs on the Cuban outfielder and that the Boston Red Sox were very much interested in the prospect, but we've yet to hear that he's been declared an official free agent by Major League Baseball, which is among the first steps -- along with establishing residency in a participating country -- just like we saw with Yoenis Cespedes.
The Chicago Cubs are expected to be an aggressive bidder once Soler hits the market, but Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune wrote a few weeks back that the White Sox could outbid the Cubs, and any other bidder.
As for a guess as to how much Soler might warrant, MLB.com's Peter Gammons tweetedearlier this week that one scouting director told him he sees Soler signing with the Cubs for $27 million.
Previously, Miami Marlins president David Samson said in a radio interview his team is not interested in Soler, as per a tweet from MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
The Cleveland Indians have worked out Soler on a number of occasions, tweeted Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer and Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports tweeted several weeks ago that the Yankees and Phillies were the two teams at the time that have been the most aggressive on Soler.
Phillies GM Ruben Aramo confirms his club's interest.
The Toronto Blue Jays are in the mix, too,reported Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com.
Considering the way things went down with Cespedes -- he signed with Oakland out of nowhere after the general belief was that the Miami Marlins were the heavy favorites -- anything can happen, including a mystery team or two. We have to believe, however, that with March looming -- and minor league camp opening soon -- that Soler will sign soon.
- Jason A. Churchill
Cespedes vs. Soler
http://[h3]No deal for Hamels yet[/h3]
8:34AM ET
[h5]Cole Hamels | Phillies [/h5]
UPDATE: Hamels' agent John Boggs is leaving Clearwater, Fla., Thursday without completing a deal for Hamels, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. "At this point," Boggs said, "we're not going to discuss the negotiations. But I'm trying to remain positive. And that's all I'd like to say."
No deadline has been set by either side, but it's common for clubs and players to try and avoid negotiations during the season in order to stave off potential distractions to the player and team.
...
UPDATE: John Boggs, the agent for Hamels, is in Clearwater to begin negotiations with the Phillies on a long-term extension for his client, says David Murphy in Wednesday's Philadelphia Daily News.
--
Talks between the Philadelphia Phillis and left-hander Cole Hamels are picking up steam, reports Jim Salisbury.
It appear clear that there will be no discount given by Hamels, who is likely to cost the club more than $100 million to keep around, which would give them two pitchers and a first baseman owed more than $100 million.
The pending free agency of Hunter Pence and Shane Victorino could be impacted by any large extension for Hamels, who is from Southern California and could be an attractive free agent next offseason for a club such as the Dodgers, and even the Red Sox, Rangers and Yankees.
- Jason A. Churchill
http://[h3]Posey back behind plate[/h3]
8:31AM ET
[h5]Buster Posey | Giants [/h5]
It's been almost 10 months since Buster Posey took his place behind the dish in real game action. That's expected to change Friday.
The Giants catcher and 2010 NL Rookie of the Year is scheduled to catch Matt Cain for two innings, according to CSNBayArea.com's Andrew Baggarly.
As Baggarly points out, it's been 288 days since a home plate collision ended Posey's 2011 season. But after months of rehab, Posey is finally ready.
He ran the bases Thursday as one final test of his ankle, and manager Bruce Bochy said, "He's gotten over that hump."
Bochy said Posey will be off Saturday then catch four innings on Sunday.
- Jason Catania
http://[h3]Perez's chances for Opening Day[/h3]
8:19AM ET
[h5]Chris Perez | Indians [/h5]
UPDATE: We're about three weeks from Opening Day and the Indians still have yet to give up on the chance that Perez makes it back in time, tweets Danny Knobler of CBS Sports. The Indians, though, are likely to play it safe with their closer, as an oblique injury can linger if not allowed to fully heal.
The good news is that Perez threw on Tuesday, making 45 throws from 60 feet in the first step back, reports MLB.com's Jordan Bastian.
...
If All-Star closer Chris Perez isn't ready by Opening Day, Indians manager Manny Acta will stay in-house and go with Vinnie Pestano, reports Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.
The Indians announced in late February that Perez will miss four-to-six weeks with a strained left oblique muscle, but the club appears confident he will be ready in time.
Pestano has three big-league saves and 71 in the minors. Last year he was 1-2 with a 2.32 ERA in 67 appearances.
There are three former big-league closers in camp in Dan Wheeler, Chris Ray and Jeremy Accardo. Ray has 51 career saves, Wheeler 42 and Accardo 38. The trio is expected to compete for the sixth and seventh spots in the pen, and they provide nice insurance if Perez is slow to recover and Pestano stumbles.
- Doug Mittler
Perez's value takes a hit
Positional power rankings: Starting Pitchers #16-30.
Bourgeois, Ethier and incremental upgrades.
David Robertson's injury worse than first thought.
Glen Perkins signs extension with Twins.
This was a savvy move by the Twins. In his first full season working out of the bullpen, Perkins blossumed into an entirely new pitcher. As a starter, his strikeout rate had hung around 10% as his slider and change-up both generated mediocre amounts of whiffs. His fastballs averaged in the low-90 MPH range, making his overall repertoire middling.
But in the bullpen, Perkins let himself go. His fastball’s velocity jumped up to 94-95 MPH, and he ditched his change-up in favor of throwing his slider 30% of the time. He had never generated more than 28% Whiffs/Swing with any of his pitches before, but in 2012, hitters whiffed on his slider 40% of the time they swung at it. Perkins went from a replacement-level starter to closer material — not something you see happen every day.
The Twins don’t have a deep bullpen, so it makes sense that they’d want to lock up Perkins. His 2.41 FIP and 1.7 WAR led the Twins last season by a wide margin; the next best pitcher in their ‘pen was arguably Joe Nathan, who had a 4.28 FIP and finished the season with zero WAR. Their closer, Matt Capps, saw his strikeout rate plummet last season, and he blew 9 saves and posted a 4.75 FIP. It was a sorry bunch back there, and Perkins was the only consistent, reliable reliever that the Twins had.
By locking up Perkins before the season begins, the Twins essentially just inked their closer-of-the-future to a contract worthy of a set-up man. At the first sign of trouble from Capps, Perkins will likely be inserted as closer, and the Twins will have themselves a great closer signed to a very affordable control.
My only hesitancy is that Perkins is guaranteed money by the Twins for four seasons; that’s a long time to trust that Perkins will remain healthy and effective. Relief pitchers come and go, their performance fluctuates on a yearly basis, and they are a constant injury risk. Teams rarely sign relief pitchers to deals longer than two or three years, and even those sort of deals can blow up in a team’s face easily enough. This is a tad of a risky signing by the Twins — but at least it’s a small risk, as $12 million over four seasons isn’t so bad. Even if he regresses some or has some injury issues over the coming years, Perkins should still easily be worth this contract in the end.
Considering the current state of the Twins’ bullpen, this was a no-brainer decision. They may have six other holes, but at least they have one reliable reliever to count on in the future.
Positional power rankings: Designated Hitters.
Spoiler [+]
This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.
There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well.
Since we’re covering so many players and it just got incredibly long, we’ve split this post in two, with the second post set to run in a couple of hours. But, enough ramblings, on to the rankings.
30. San Diego Padres
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]SD[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Stauffer[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Richard[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Moseley[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Edinson Volquez[/td][td]SD[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Robbie Erlin[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Wieland[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Last year, the Padres rotation ranked 26th in WAR, and over the winter, they traded away their best starter. It may very well prove to be the right move in the long run, but for 2012, this rotation is pretty lousy. Luebke’s Major League numbers aren’t supported by his minor league track record, so he’s more solid starter than ace in the making. Petco may help keep the raw stats down, but make no mistake, San Diego’s starters are going to cost them games this year. The good news for Friars fans is that they’ve got a lot of good young arms on the way, and the sooner guys like Erlin and Wieland make it to the Majors, the better the team’s chances of competing will be. For this year, though, it probably won’t be very pretty.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]James McDonald[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Lincoln[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Correia[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Karstens[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erik Bedard[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]A.J. Burnett[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jo-Jo Reyes[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ve listed eight guys on the depth chart, but I can’t project any of them for more than 130 innings, so it looks like the Pirates are going to do rotation-by-committee this year. Bedard and Burnett could provide some value when they’re on the mound, but ZIPS isn’t overly high on the younger arms in the rotation and doesn’t like the back-end guys at all. Morton’s still a bit of a wild card and McDonald may have more upside than is represented here, but the Pirates have essentially assembled a bunch of guys from the infirmary and are hoping that they can find five guys who can keep their arms attached all year.
28. Colorado Rockies
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Guthrie[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Juan Nicasio[/td][td]COL[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Drew Pomeranz[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Esmil Rogers[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex White[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Guillermo Moscoso[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Chatwood[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.7[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jorge de la Rosa[/td][td]COL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Young arms with upside like Chacin, Nicasio, and Pomeranz give the Rockies the makings of a potentially solid rotation… next year. In 2012, ZIPS is expecting these guys to be average at best, and then the rotation is basically filled with an innings-eater and a bunch of guys who might be okay or might be terrible. The Rockies will be playing mix-and-match all year, and the hope should be that they can find three or four guys to rely on for 2013. The experimentation is going to cost them wins in 2012, however.
27. New York Mets
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathon Niese[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]R.A. Dickey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Pelfrey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johan Santana[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Schwinden[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][/table]
I like Jon Niese. I think he could turn into a really nice starting pitcher, maybe as soon as this year. But, even with some optimism there, if he’s your ace, your rotation needs some work. And the Mets rotation definitely needs some work. The back-end is amazingly thin, and the team desperately needs Johan Santana to stay healthy and pitch well in order to keep from having to rush too many kids to the big leagues prematurely. And, unfortunately for Sandy Alderson, the guys behind Niese aren’t exactly world beaters either. Dickey is okay, but Pelfrey’s not great, and those guys make up the middle of the rotation at the moment. Going forward, the Mets probably need to replace at least three of their five starters, and if Santana doesn’t bounce back, it gets even uglier. Good luck, Sandy.
26. Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bud Norris[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.A. Happ[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Harrell[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
If I had to bet on one rotation finishing the year with the worst numbers, I’d probably bet on Houston. Their current group includes a couple of good arms, but Wandy Rodriguez has been on the block for a while and could easily end the year in another uniform. The Astros are in full-on rebuilding mode and won’t hesitate to use the season as an extended tryout camp, and that could lead to a second half rotation that is more experiment than attempt to really compete. If Wandy sticks around, their rotation will just be not good instead of awful, but the chances that he gets moved create serious potential for a league worst rotation in Houston this year.
25. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jason Hammel[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tsuyoshi Wada[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hunter[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian Matusz[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]6.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Bergesen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles rotation is actually pretty tough to project. With both Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada, we’re basically just guessing. They could be good, they could awful, or they could be anything in between. Toss in Brian Matusz’s inconsistency, and 60% of the rotation could be essentially qualified as wild cards. ZIPS thinks Britton and Hammel will be roughly league average, so if the three coin flips come up positive, this rotation could be not awful, but if they all go the wrong way, then the Orioles will probably have the worst group of starters in the AL.
24. Chicago Cubs
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]8.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Dempster[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Volstad[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]165.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Maholm[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Travis Wood[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wells[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Samardzija[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I like what Theo Epstein did this winter, and I see more potential in guys like Wood and Volstad that what ZIPS is projecting, but regardless, this isn’t a very good rotation behind Garza, and ZIPS expects a pretty good sized step back from him as well. If you believe that Garza’s 2011 performance was more breakthrough than career year, you could bump this total up a bit, but even the rosiest projection is going to give the Cubs with a below average rotation this year.
23. Cincinnati Reds
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mat Latos[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Cueto[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Leake[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Homer Bailey[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.6[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Francis[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
When I ran the numbers and ordered by team total, I was shocked to see the Reds this low, but ZIPS is just not a big fan of Bailey or Leake, and top top it off, it hates Bronson Arroyo with the passion of a 1,000 burning souls. Of course, after watching him give up so many bombs last year, Reds fans probably feel the same way. Personally, I like Leake a lot more than ZIPS does, and I think Bailey could be quite a bit better than this as well, so I think the Reds are quite likely to outperform this projection. But, Latos doesn’t stack up with some of the other aces around the league, and the rotation has a lot of question marks at the back end. It’s possible that I’m just overrating Cincinnati’s starting pitching, and ZIPS is providing a needed reality check here.
22. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tom Milone[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]6.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon McCarthy[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Peacock[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]8.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bartolo Colon[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jarrod Parker[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dallas Braden[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyson Ross[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Anderson[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Okay, let’s talk about the elephant – ZIPS loves Tom Milone. Well, kind of. It projects a fantastic 3.28 FIP from him, thanks to a miniscule walk rate and decent enough strikeout and home run rates. However, ZIPS also projects a 4.02 ERA for him, so the system either thinks he’s going to post a crazy high BABIP or a crazy low strand rate. I’m guessing Milone is just the kind of pitcher that projection systems in general have trouble with, and he’ll underperform this projection. But, if you’re an A’s fan, you have to like the fact that ZIPS isn’t sure that going from Gonzalez to Milone is actually a downgrade. Besides the soft-tossing righty, however, the A’s have a lot of guys who are probably only going to spend about half a year on the team. Colon, Braden, and Anderson have health issues, while Parker and Peacock are both likely going to be on innings limits and might not break camp with the team anyway.
21. Kansas City Royals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Luke Hochevar[/td][td]KC[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Felipe Paulino[/td][td]KC[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]KC[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]8.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bruce Chen[/td][td]KC[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Crow[/td][td]KC[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]8.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Montgomery[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Duffy[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Odorizzi[/td][td]KC[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ll give them this – the Royals have depth. Paulino is projected to be the team’s best starter, and then the Royals can run out six guys who all project about the same on a rate basis, giving them seven arms who each have some value as a big league hurler. Depending on who they pick to fill out the rotation, Crow could end up back in the bullpen, which would free up innings for a guy like Duffy, but the alignment doesn’t look like it will matter too much – they’re going to run out a group of five starters that aren’t bad but aren’t good either. Before the Royals become legitimate contenders, they’re going to have to add a legitimate quality starter or two.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Hudson[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ian Kennedy[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Saunders[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Bauer[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Skaggs[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
Along with the Reds placement, this is the one that I expect to ruffle the most feathers. The D’Backs were one of just six teams to get 1,000+ innings out of their rotation last year, and with Kennedy and Hudson at the front end and Bauer and Skaggs on the way, it’s not like there’s age related decline to worry about. But, in reality, the D’Backs staff just overperformed last year relative to their talent levels, and ZIPS expects some real steps backwards in 2012. Replacing Collmenter and Saunders with the young kids could lead to some real improvement, but Arizona doesn’t have as much depth here as they think, and their front-end guys aren’t as good as their performances last year made them look. There’s certainly potential for a really good rotation in Arizona, but it might come in 2013 instead of 2012.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ricky Romero[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]210.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Morrow[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]9.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Henderson Alvarez[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Cecil[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle Drabek[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carlos Villanueva[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesse Litsch[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin McGowan[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]6.7[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
With Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez, ZIPS sees the makings of a strong rotation going forward, but the lack of quality at the back-end looks to be a real problem this year. That said, there is some talent there, and it’s not completely out of the question that a guy like Drabek could find the form that made him a real prospect a few years ago. If the Blue Jays want to contend for the second wild card, though, they’d do well to get a solid veteran who would raise the floor of what they could expect from their #5 starter, and keep an implosion from the young kids from ruining their season.
18. Atlanta Braves
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]9.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jair Jurrjens[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hanson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Julio Teheran[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randall Delgado[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The issue here isn’t talent as much as it is health. Tim Hudson’s out for at least the beginning portion of the season, Jair Jurrjens has a litany of health issues, and Tommy Hanson remade his delivery in order to take some strain off his shoulder. The Braves have the depth to deal with a patchwork group, but they lack a true ace at the front, and Teheran and Delgado might not be ready to be more than stop-gaps at this point. Strong seasons from Beachy and Minor would certainly help stabilize things in Atlanta, but for this year, there are going to be a lot of questions that need answering.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]10.1[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]5.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yovani Gallardo[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]9.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wolf[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Narveson[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wily Peralta[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Greinke and Gallardo are a really good 1-2, but Marcum’s September collapse and miserable performance in the playoffs, combined with lingering shoulder problems, mean that this rotation falls off very quickly. Wolf is a nice #5 starter, but he’s penciled in as the #4 for the Brewers, and while Narveson is somewhat useful, they might want to make room for Wily Peralta sooner than later. Especially with Greinke in his walk year, the team would benefit significantly if he was able to claim a rotation spot at some point this year and pitch well enough to hold it for 2013.
16. Washington Nationals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Edwin Jackson[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4505&position=PJordan Zimmermann[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]7.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]9.2[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Lannan[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]4.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ross Detwiler[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chien-Ming Wang[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tom Gorzelanny[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
I was relatively conservative with the innings projections for Strasburg and Zimmerman, so if you think both can stay healthy and pitch something close to a full season, you could bump the Nationals up quite a bit here. Even just giving both of those guys an addition 30 innings would push Washington’s rotation into the top 10, so don’t get too upset over the placement here. There’s obviously a lot of potential here – how well their rotation performs basically depends on how many innings they can get from their young ace, and how quickly they can dump Lannan on someone else.
There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well.
Since we’re covering so many players and it just got incredibly long, we’ve split this post in two, with the second post set to run in a couple of hours. But, enough ramblings, on to the rankings.
30. San Diego Padres
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]SD[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Stauffer[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Richard[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Moseley[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Edinson Volquez[/td][td]SD[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Robbie Erlin[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Wieland[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Last year, the Padres rotation ranked 26th in WAR, and over the winter, they traded away their best starter. It may very well prove to be the right move in the long run, but for 2012, this rotation is pretty lousy. Luebke’s Major League numbers aren’t supported by his minor league track record, so he’s more solid starter than ace in the making. Petco may help keep the raw stats down, but make no mistake, San Diego’s starters are going to cost them games this year. The good news for Friars fans is that they’ve got a lot of good young arms on the way, and the sooner guys like Erlin and Wieland make it to the Majors, the better the team’s chances of competing will be. For this year, though, it probably won’t be very pretty.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]James McDonald[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Lincoln[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Correia[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Karstens[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erik Bedard[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]A.J. Burnett[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jo-Jo Reyes[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ve listed eight guys on the depth chart, but I can’t project any of them for more than 130 innings, so it looks like the Pirates are going to do rotation-by-committee this year. Bedard and Burnett could provide some value when they’re on the mound, but ZIPS isn’t overly high on the younger arms in the rotation and doesn’t like the back-end guys at all. Morton’s still a bit of a wild card and McDonald may have more upside than is represented here, but the Pirates have essentially assembled a bunch of guys from the infirmary and are hoping that they can find five guys who can keep their arms attached all year.
28. Colorado Rockies
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Guthrie[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Juan Nicasio[/td][td]COL[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Drew Pomeranz[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Esmil Rogers[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex White[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Guillermo Moscoso[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Chatwood[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.7[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jorge de la Rosa[/td][td]COL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Young arms with upside like Chacin, Nicasio, and Pomeranz give the Rockies the makings of a potentially solid rotation… next year. In 2012, ZIPS is expecting these guys to be average at best, and then the rotation is basically filled with an innings-eater and a bunch of guys who might be okay or might be terrible. The Rockies will be playing mix-and-match all year, and the hope should be that they can find three or four guys to rely on for 2013. The experimentation is going to cost them wins in 2012, however.
27. New York Mets
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathon Niese[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]R.A. Dickey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Pelfrey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johan Santana[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Schwinden[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][/table]
I like Jon Niese. I think he could turn into a really nice starting pitcher, maybe as soon as this year. But, even with some optimism there, if he’s your ace, your rotation needs some work. And the Mets rotation definitely needs some work. The back-end is amazingly thin, and the team desperately needs Johan Santana to stay healthy and pitch well in order to keep from having to rush too many kids to the big leagues prematurely. And, unfortunately for Sandy Alderson, the guys behind Niese aren’t exactly world beaters either. Dickey is okay, but Pelfrey’s not great, and those guys make up the middle of the rotation at the moment. Going forward, the Mets probably need to replace at least three of their five starters, and if Santana doesn’t bounce back, it gets even uglier. Good luck, Sandy.
26. Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bud Norris[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.A. Happ[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Harrell[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
If I had to bet on one rotation finishing the year with the worst numbers, I’d probably bet on Houston. Their current group includes a couple of good arms, but Wandy Rodriguez has been on the block for a while and could easily end the year in another uniform. The Astros are in full-on rebuilding mode and won’t hesitate to use the season as an extended tryout camp, and that could lead to a second half rotation that is more experiment than attempt to really compete. If Wandy sticks around, their rotation will just be not good instead of awful, but the chances that he gets moved create serious potential for a league worst rotation in Houston this year.
25. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jason Hammel[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tsuyoshi Wada[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hunter[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian Matusz[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]6.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Bergesen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles rotation is actually pretty tough to project. With both Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada, we’re basically just guessing. They could be good, they could awful, or they could be anything in between. Toss in Brian Matusz’s inconsistency, and 60% of the rotation could be essentially qualified as wild cards. ZIPS thinks Britton and Hammel will be roughly league average, so if the three coin flips come up positive, this rotation could be not awful, but if they all go the wrong way, then the Orioles will probably have the worst group of starters in the AL.
24. Chicago Cubs
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]8.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Dempster[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Volstad[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]165.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Maholm[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Travis Wood[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wells[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Samardzija[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I like what Theo Epstein did this winter, and I see more potential in guys like Wood and Volstad that what ZIPS is projecting, but regardless, this isn’t a very good rotation behind Garza, and ZIPS expects a pretty good sized step back from him as well. If you believe that Garza’s 2011 performance was more breakthrough than career year, you could bump this total up a bit, but even the rosiest projection is going to give the Cubs with a below average rotation this year.
23. Cincinnati Reds
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mat Latos[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Cueto[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Leake[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Homer Bailey[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.6[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Francis[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
When I ran the numbers and ordered by team total, I was shocked to see the Reds this low, but ZIPS is just not a big fan of Bailey or Leake, and top top it off, it hates Bronson Arroyo with the passion of a 1,000 burning souls. Of course, after watching him give up so many bombs last year, Reds fans probably feel the same way. Personally, I like Leake a lot more than ZIPS does, and I think Bailey could be quite a bit better than this as well, so I think the Reds are quite likely to outperform this projection. But, Latos doesn’t stack up with some of the other aces around the league, and the rotation has a lot of question marks at the back end. It’s possible that I’m just overrating Cincinnati’s starting pitching, and ZIPS is providing a needed reality check here.
22. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tom Milone[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]6.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon McCarthy[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Peacock[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]8.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bartolo Colon[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jarrod Parker[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dallas Braden[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyson Ross[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Anderson[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Okay, let’s talk about the elephant – ZIPS loves Tom Milone. Well, kind of. It projects a fantastic 3.28 FIP from him, thanks to a miniscule walk rate and decent enough strikeout and home run rates. However, ZIPS also projects a 4.02 ERA for him, so the system either thinks he’s going to post a crazy high BABIP or a crazy low strand rate. I’m guessing Milone is just the kind of pitcher that projection systems in general have trouble with, and he’ll underperform this projection. But, if you’re an A’s fan, you have to like the fact that ZIPS isn’t sure that going from Gonzalez to Milone is actually a downgrade. Besides the soft-tossing righty, however, the A’s have a lot of guys who are probably only going to spend about half a year on the team. Colon, Braden, and Anderson have health issues, while Parker and Peacock are both likely going to be on innings limits and might not break camp with the team anyway.
21. Kansas City Royals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Luke Hochevar[/td][td]KC[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Felipe Paulino[/td][td]KC[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]KC[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]8.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bruce Chen[/td][td]KC[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Crow[/td][td]KC[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]8.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Montgomery[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Duffy[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Odorizzi[/td][td]KC[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ll give them this – the Royals have depth. Paulino is projected to be the team’s best starter, and then the Royals can run out six guys who all project about the same on a rate basis, giving them seven arms who each have some value as a big league hurler. Depending on who they pick to fill out the rotation, Crow could end up back in the bullpen, which would free up innings for a guy like Duffy, but the alignment doesn’t look like it will matter too much – they’re going to run out a group of five starters that aren’t bad but aren’t good either. Before the Royals become legitimate contenders, they’re going to have to add a legitimate quality starter or two.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Hudson[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ian Kennedy[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Saunders[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Bauer[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Skaggs[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
Along with the Reds placement, this is the one that I expect to ruffle the most feathers. The D’Backs were one of just six teams to get 1,000+ innings out of their rotation last year, and with Kennedy and Hudson at the front end and Bauer and Skaggs on the way, it’s not like there’s age related decline to worry about. But, in reality, the D’Backs staff just overperformed last year relative to their talent levels, and ZIPS expects some real steps backwards in 2012. Replacing Collmenter and Saunders with the young kids could lead to some real improvement, but Arizona doesn’t have as much depth here as they think, and their front-end guys aren’t as good as their performances last year made them look. There’s certainly potential for a really good rotation in Arizona, but it might come in 2013 instead of 2012.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ricky Romero[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]210.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Morrow[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]9.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Henderson Alvarez[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Cecil[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle Drabek[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carlos Villanueva[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesse Litsch[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin McGowan[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]6.7[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
With Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez, ZIPS sees the makings of a strong rotation going forward, but the lack of quality at the back-end looks to be a real problem this year. That said, there is some talent there, and it’s not completely out of the question that a guy like Drabek could find the form that made him a real prospect a few years ago. If the Blue Jays want to contend for the second wild card, though, they’d do well to get a solid veteran who would raise the floor of what they could expect from their #5 starter, and keep an implosion from the young kids from ruining their season.
18. Atlanta Braves
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]9.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jair Jurrjens[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hanson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Julio Teheran[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randall Delgado[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The issue here isn’t talent as much as it is health. Tim Hudson’s out for at least the beginning portion of the season, Jair Jurrjens has a litany of health issues, and Tommy Hanson remade his delivery in order to take some strain off his shoulder. The Braves have the depth to deal with a patchwork group, but they lack a true ace at the front, and Teheran and Delgado might not be ready to be more than stop-gaps at this point. Strong seasons from Beachy and Minor would certainly help stabilize things in Atlanta, but for this year, there are going to be a lot of questions that need answering.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]10.1[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]5.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yovani Gallardo[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]9.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wolf[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Narveson[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wily Peralta[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Greinke and Gallardo are a really good 1-2, but Marcum’s September collapse and miserable performance in the playoffs, combined with lingering shoulder problems, mean that this rotation falls off very quickly. Wolf is a nice #5 starter, but he’s penciled in as the #4 for the Brewers, and while Narveson is somewhat useful, they might want to make room for Wily Peralta sooner than later. Especially with Greinke in his walk year, the team would benefit significantly if he was able to claim a rotation spot at some point this year and pitch well enough to hold it for 2013.
16. Washington Nationals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Edwin Jackson[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4505&position=PJordan Zimmermann[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]7.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]9.2[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Lannan[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]4.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ross Detwiler[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chien-Ming Wang[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tom Gorzelanny[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
I was relatively conservative with the innings projections for Strasburg and Zimmerman, so if you think both can stay healthy and pitch something close to a full season, you could bump the Nationals up quite a bit here. Even just giving both of those guys an addition 30 innings would push Washington’s rotation into the top 10, so don’t get too upset over the placement here. There’s obviously a lot of potential here – how well their rotation performs basically depends on how many innings they can get from their young ace, and how quickly they can dump Lannan on someone else.
Bourgeois, Ethier and incremental upgrades.
Spoiler [+]
The Nationals have been trying to solve their center field situation for quite some time, having their trade efforts rebuked and their name linked to mediocre stopgap solutions.
Last season, they were in the mix for both http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OFMichael Bourn and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OFB.J. Upton but watched as division rival Atlanta acquired the former, while the latter stayed in Tampa and helped the Rays make the playoffs on the season’s final day. This offseason, the Nats have reportedly expressed interest in http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8553&position=OFGerardo Parra as a long-term solution, have considered http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2225&position=OFhttp://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389222&position=CJason Bourgeois as a temporary stopgap, and have toyed with the idea of moving http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OFJayson Werth over to make room for http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa548033&position=OFBryce Harper.
In the meantime, they signed http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OFMike Cameron and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1142&position=OFRick Ankiel to minor league deals and are still considering http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6421&position=OFRoger Bernadina for an extended look. Cameron retired, which leaves the in-house options at Bernadina or Ankiel if they want to keep Werth in right field. The only realistic external option at this point is Bourgeois, and when he represents the best anything, we’re discussing a problem without a clear solution.
If Bryce Harper is going to make the major league team, moving Werth to center field is the Nationals best bet right now. If not, the talent they have internally is just as good as the realistic external options. They shouldn’t make a deal if the upgrade is merely incremental, as that represents a short-term patch for a problem they need to solve long-term.
While center field is a position integral to the success of a major league team, the Nationals situation speaks to the larger issue of their overall roster construction: they have several similar pieces that will potentially get shuffled when Harper arrives.
If Parra is acquired, for example, and Harper makes the team out of spring training, then http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=1B/OFMichael Morse probably shifts to first base, which makes http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1904&position=1BAdam LaRoche an expensive bench player. Teams aren’t exactly going to bombard the Nats with phone calls regarding LaRoche’s availability, so they either play him and lose production by sitting Morse, or play Morse and pay LaRoche to sit on the bench or to play elsewhere through an outright release.
If Harper doesn’t break camp with the team, there is no need to trade prospects for a Bourgeois, when he, Ankiel or Bernadina are only going to man the position for a month or two. Plus, Bourgeois doesn’t offer anything that the other two don’t. He doesn’t have much major league experience and has only played 400 career innings in center field, and at 30 years old doesn’t have an age advantage either. It isn’t as if he represents a junior varsity version of Bourn, one of the highest-rated centerfielders over the last few seasons. In fact, since 2009, there is virtually no difference between Bourgeois, Ankiel and Bernadina:
[table][tr][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]G[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]BsR[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rick Ankiel[/td][td]318[/td][td]1059[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]-1[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Bourgeois[/td][td]186[/td][td]428[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1[/td][td]1.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roger Bernadina[/td][td]228[/td][td]803[/td][td]0.308[/td][td]-4.2[/td][td]2[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][/table]
In looking at those numbers I struggle to see any reason to actually trade something from the Nats system to acquire Bourgeois. He may be a more natural fit in center than Ankiel, but there isn’t enough evidence to bear out the advantage of playing him at the position over Bernadina. And considering that, by most accounts, Harper is going to play for the Nationals this season, why bother trading for a two-month player, let alone one that isn’t any better than players already on the roster?
However, all of this is predicated on the belief that Harper plays in the major leagues. If the Nationals’ interest in players like Parra or Bourgeois is signaling that Harper may spend more time in the minors this season, then there is a better way to improve the team and potentially contend for a playoff berth: move Werth to center, regardless, and look to acquire Andre Ethier or a similar player for right field. The Nationals have a long-term center field problem to solve, but for 2012, it seems reasonable to think Werth could handle the position as well as, if not better than, Ankiel or Bernadina.
Ethier is only under contract for this season and is set to make ~$11 million. The Dodgers haven’t been quick to discuss an extension with him and, let’s face it, aren’t going anywhere this season. The Nationals could unload a mid-level prospect or two to bring him in and create a very solid outfield with he, Werth and Morse.
They don’t have to extend him beyond this season, with Werth and Morse under contract and Harper knocking on the door. And while Ethier isn’t a superstar, he is somewhat known around households, would create some more buzz and, most importantly, would improve the Nationals’ playoff odds this season more than Bernadina, Ankiel or Bourgeois.
Credit the Nationals for attempting to solve their problem in a creative fashion, by using an effective stopgap in Cameron, acquiring Parra or considering Harper-placeholders like Bourgeois. But this is a situation where they can improve the team by acquiring another corner outfielder and moving Werth to center for the upcoming season.
If Harper is going to make it to the majors before July, their most optimal outfield alignment is he, Werth and Morse from right to left field, and the most reasonable solution is to just use Bernadina or Ankiel until he arrives.
Otherwise, the Nationals are better off looking at Ethier as a one-year rental until Harper is ready, and making a stronger push for Upton or Bourn after the season. Werth isn’t a long-term solution in center, but using him there and shoring up right field in his wake is a happy medium between punting center field altogether with Ankiel, Bourgeois or Bernadina, and making the major splash with Upton or Bourn.
Last season, they were in the mix for both http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OFMichael Bourn and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OFB.J. Upton but watched as division rival Atlanta acquired the former, while the latter stayed in Tampa and helped the Rays make the playoffs on the season’s final day. This offseason, the Nats have reportedly expressed interest in http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8553&position=OFGerardo Parra as a long-term solution, have considered http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2225&position=OFhttp://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389222&position=CJason Bourgeois as a temporary stopgap, and have toyed with the idea of moving http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OFJayson Werth over to make room for http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa548033&position=OFBryce Harper.
In the meantime, they signed http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OFMike Cameron and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1142&position=OFRick Ankiel to minor league deals and are still considering http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6421&position=OFRoger Bernadina for an extended look. Cameron retired, which leaves the in-house options at Bernadina or Ankiel if they want to keep Werth in right field. The only realistic external option at this point is Bourgeois, and when he represents the best anything, we’re discussing a problem without a clear solution.
If Bryce Harper is going to make the major league team, moving Werth to center field is the Nationals best bet right now. If not, the talent they have internally is just as good as the realistic external options. They shouldn’t make a deal if the upgrade is merely incremental, as that represents a short-term patch for a problem they need to solve long-term.
While center field is a position integral to the success of a major league team, the Nationals situation speaks to the larger issue of their overall roster construction: they have several similar pieces that will potentially get shuffled when Harper arrives.
If Parra is acquired, for example, and Harper makes the team out of spring training, then http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=1B/OFMichael Morse probably shifts to first base, which makes http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1904&position=1BAdam LaRoche an expensive bench player. Teams aren’t exactly going to bombard the Nats with phone calls regarding LaRoche’s availability, so they either play him and lose production by sitting Morse, or play Morse and pay LaRoche to sit on the bench or to play elsewhere through an outright release.
If Harper doesn’t break camp with the team, there is no need to trade prospects for a Bourgeois, when he, Ankiel or Bernadina are only going to man the position for a month or two. Plus, Bourgeois doesn’t offer anything that the other two don’t. He doesn’t have much major league experience and has only played 400 career innings in center field, and at 30 years old doesn’t have an age advantage either. It isn’t as if he represents a junior varsity version of Bourn, one of the highest-rated centerfielders over the last few seasons. In fact, since 2009, there is virtually no difference between Bourgeois, Ankiel and Bernadina:
[table][tr][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]G[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]BsR[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rick Ankiel[/td][td]318[/td][td]1059[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]-1[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Bourgeois[/td][td]186[/td][td]428[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1[/td][td]1.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roger Bernadina[/td][td]228[/td][td]803[/td][td]0.308[/td][td]-4.2[/td][td]2[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][/table]
In looking at those numbers I struggle to see any reason to actually trade something from the Nats system to acquire Bourgeois. He may be a more natural fit in center than Ankiel, but there isn’t enough evidence to bear out the advantage of playing him at the position over Bernadina. And considering that, by most accounts, Harper is going to play for the Nationals this season, why bother trading for a two-month player, let alone one that isn’t any better than players already on the roster?
However, all of this is predicated on the belief that Harper plays in the major leagues. If the Nationals’ interest in players like Parra or Bourgeois is signaling that Harper may spend more time in the minors this season, then there is a better way to improve the team and potentially contend for a playoff berth: move Werth to center, regardless, and look to acquire Andre Ethier or a similar player for right field. The Nationals have a long-term center field problem to solve, but for 2012, it seems reasonable to think Werth could handle the position as well as, if not better than, Ankiel or Bernadina.
Ethier is only under contract for this season and is set to make ~$11 million. The Dodgers haven’t been quick to discuss an extension with him and, let’s face it, aren’t going anywhere this season. The Nationals could unload a mid-level prospect or two to bring him in and create a very solid outfield with he, Werth and Morse.
They don’t have to extend him beyond this season, with Werth and Morse under contract and Harper knocking on the door. And while Ethier isn’t a superstar, he is somewhat known around households, would create some more buzz and, most importantly, would improve the Nationals’ playoff odds this season more than Bernadina, Ankiel or Bourgeois.
Credit the Nationals for attempting to solve their problem in a creative fashion, by using an effective stopgap in Cameron, acquiring Parra or considering Harper-placeholders like Bourgeois. But this is a situation where they can improve the team by acquiring another corner outfielder and moving Werth to center for the upcoming season.
If Harper is going to make it to the majors before July, their most optimal outfield alignment is he, Werth and Morse from right to left field, and the most reasonable solution is to just use Bernadina or Ankiel until he arrives.
Otherwise, the Nationals are better off looking at Ethier as a one-year rental until Harper is ready, and making a stronger push for Upton or Bourn after the season. Werth isn’t a long-term solution in center, but using him there and shoring up right field in his wake is a happy medium between punting center field altogether with Ankiel, Bourgeois or Bernadina, and making the major splash with Upton or Bourn.
David Robertson's injury worse than first thought.
Spoiler [+]
New York Yankees set-man David Robertson’s status for opening day could be in question. The key high-leverage reliever injured his foot while stumbling on a set of stairs. Robertson – who is currently in a walking boot – had an MRI on the foot, which raised further questions about the severity of the injury, according to manager Joe Girardi. The right-hander will undergo further tests, including a CT scan and a weight-bearing x-ray.
The injury – if serious enough for Robertson to miss significant time – could put added strain on the Yankees bullpen with Rafael Soriano, coming off an injury of his own, likely moving up to take the key eighth-inning duties. It could also increase the roles of pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Dellin Betances, giving them a chance to shine. The organization has a lot of depth in the starting rotation, but less so in the bullpen.
Robertson, who is the likely heir apparent to closer Mariano Rivera, was almost unhittable (5.40 H/9) and tied for sixth in the Majors in reliever shutdowns with 37. He fanned 13.50 batters per nine innings and allowed just one home run in more than 60 innings of work. Most 2012 projections had Robertson posting numbers that would place him among the best in the Majors once again.
The loss of Robertson for a significant period of time will not have the same impact as losing someone like Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira but it could very well cost the club a couple of wins early on in the season. Foot injuries also have a habit of lingering. With any luck Robertson’s injury will prove to be modest with only a few weeks on the sidelines.
The injury – if serious enough for Robertson to miss significant time – could put added strain on the Yankees bullpen with Rafael Soriano, coming off an injury of his own, likely moving up to take the key eighth-inning duties. It could also increase the roles of pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Dellin Betances, giving them a chance to shine. The organization has a lot of depth in the starting rotation, but less so in the bullpen.
Robertson, who is the likely heir apparent to closer Mariano Rivera, was almost unhittable (5.40 H/9) and tied for sixth in the Majors in reliever shutdowns with 37. He fanned 13.50 batters per nine innings and allowed just one home run in more than 60 innings of work. Most 2012 projections had Robertson posting numbers that would place him among the best in the Majors once again.
The loss of Robertson for a significant period of time will not have the same impact as losing someone like Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira but it could very well cost the club a couple of wins early on in the season. Foot injuries also have a habit of lingering. With any luck Robertson’s injury will prove to be modest with only a few weeks on the sidelines.
Glen Perkins signs extension with Twins.
Spoiler [+]
It doesn’t get talked about very often, but spring training serves a dual purpose for many teams. Not only is it a time to get their players warmed up and ready for the regular season, but it’s also a perfect time for teams and players to finalize contract extensions. Free agent acquisitions are finished for the year and the off-season madness is in the past, so teams have the free time to focus on locking up their players. Coming into today, there had already been seven extensions signed since the beginning of spring training…and the Twins just added number eight:
This was a savvy move by the Twins. In his first full season working out of the bullpen, Perkins blossumed into an entirely new pitcher. As a starter, his strikeout rate had hung around 10% as his slider and change-up both generated mediocre amounts of whiffs. His fastballs averaged in the low-90 MPH range, making his overall repertoire middling.
But in the bullpen, Perkins let himself go. His fastball’s velocity jumped up to 94-95 MPH, and he ditched his change-up in favor of throwing his slider 30% of the time. He had never generated more than 28% Whiffs/Swing with any of his pitches before, but in 2012, hitters whiffed on his slider 40% of the time they swung at it. Perkins went from a replacement-level starter to closer material — not something you see happen every day.
The Twins don’t have a deep bullpen, so it makes sense that they’d want to lock up Perkins. His 2.41 FIP and 1.7 WAR led the Twins last season by a wide margin; the next best pitcher in their ‘pen was arguably Joe Nathan, who had a 4.28 FIP and finished the season with zero WAR. Their closer, Matt Capps, saw his strikeout rate plummet last season, and he blew 9 saves and posted a 4.75 FIP. It was a sorry bunch back there, and Perkins was the only consistent, reliable reliever that the Twins had.
By locking up Perkins before the season begins, the Twins essentially just inked their closer-of-the-future to a contract worthy of a set-up man. At the first sign of trouble from Capps, Perkins will likely be inserted as closer, and the Twins will have themselves a great closer signed to a very affordable control.
My only hesitancy is that Perkins is guaranteed money by the Twins for four seasons; that’s a long time to trust that Perkins will remain healthy and effective. Relief pitchers come and go, their performance fluctuates on a yearly basis, and they are a constant injury risk. Teams rarely sign relief pitchers to deals longer than two or three years, and even those sort of deals can blow up in a team’s face easily enough. This is a tad of a risky signing by the Twins — but at least it’s a small risk, as $12 million over four seasons isn’t so bad. Even if he regresses some or has some injury issues over the coming years, Perkins should still easily be worth this contract in the end.
Considering the current state of the Twins’ bullpen, this was a no-brainer decision. They may have six other holes, but at least they have one reliable reliever to count on in the future.
Positional power rankings: Designated Hitters.
Spoiler [+]
Whether you believe that every team should have a designated hitter, or that no teams should have one, there is no denying that the DH is an interesting position. While it’s still a position of high-octane performance — as a position, DH’s .771 OPS was second-best in the American League, behind only first base — it is also the one that most resembles a carousel. Last season, teams started — on average — more than nine different DH’s. Seven teams — the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers, Rays, Twins, White Sox and Yankees — had more different starting DH’s than they did starting pitchers. If you’re scoring at home, that’s half the AL.
All of which is to say that predicting who will get the most playing time at DH for each team can be a bit of a crapshoot. But that’s not going to stop us from trying.
One other thing to keep in mind — when it comes to WAR, it is a little bit harder for a DH to build up an elite season, due to the heavy positional adjustment that is taken into account.
14. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Wilson Betemit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.252[/td][td]0.316[/td][td]0.430[/td][td]400[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Nolan Reimold[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.246[/td][td]0.325[/td][td]0.416[/td][td]150[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Mark Reynolds[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.218[/td][td]0.32[/td][td]0.461[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Chris Davis[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.25[/td][td]0.299[/td][td]0.440[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles don’t have much to crow about these days. Wilson Betemit finished last season on fire, but ZiPS is not buying in for a return engagement. Nolan Reimold seems the most likely to beat his projection of this bunch, but he with two good seasons sandwiched around a dismal, albeit injury-shortened campaign, it’s still hard to know what to expect from him. Mark Reynolds, who by all rights should only be a DH at this point, is still going to see some time in the field for some reason, otherwise he might see a positive figure here. And while Chris Davis is only going to be 26 this year, it may be time to stop waiting for him to put it all together.
13. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Seth Smith[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.245[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.408[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Jonny Gomes[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]0.309[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Manny Ramirez[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.241[/td][td]0.342[/td][td]0.363[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing, and that’s exactly what the A’s may get out of their DH spot this season. While I count myself as firmly planted on the Seth Smith bandwagon, when you combine a potentially part-time role, with no defensive value added and a big new ballpark, you get an equation with long odds for success. Having said that, if Smith and Gomes are used in a true platoon that leverages the strength of each, then they have a chance to better than this projection. As for Manny, it’s an open question as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank, but he is likely to defy his protection one way or the other.
12. Minnesota Twins
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Ryan Doumit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.319[/td][td]0.404[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Josh Willingham[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.347[/td][td]0.45[/td][td]150[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Trevor Plouffe[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.244[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]0.398[/td][td]150[/td][td]-0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Joe Mauer[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.302[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.432[/td][td]100[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham will make a combined $10 million this year, but that doesn’t mean that they will be contributing a lot to this season’s bottom line. Willingham should be just fine as a DH, but letting him roam the expanse that is right field at Target Field may be akin to improv theater. Mauer will likely get some “keep me fresh
All of which is to say that predicting who will get the most playing time at DH for each team can be a bit of a crapshoot. But that’s not going to stop us from trying.
One other thing to keep in mind — when it comes to WAR, it is a little bit harder for a DH to build up an elite season, due to the heavy positional adjustment that is taken into account.
14. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Wilson Betemit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.252[/td][td]0.316[/td][td]0.430[/td][td]400[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Nolan Reimold[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.246[/td][td]0.325[/td][td]0.416[/td][td]150[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Mark Reynolds[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.218[/td][td]0.32[/td][td]0.461[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Chris Davis[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.25[/td][td]0.299[/td][td]0.440[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles don’t have much to crow about these days. Wilson Betemit finished last season on fire, but ZiPS is not buying in for a return engagement. Nolan Reimold seems the most likely to beat his projection of this bunch, but he with two good seasons sandwiched around a dismal, albeit injury-shortened campaign, it’s still hard to know what to expect from him. Mark Reynolds, who by all rights should only be a DH at this point, is still going to see some time in the field for some reason, otherwise he might see a positive figure here. And while Chris Davis is only going to be 26 this year, it may be time to stop waiting for him to put it all together.
13. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Seth Smith[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.245[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.408[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Jonny Gomes[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]0.309[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Manny Ramirez[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.241[/td][td]0.342[/td][td]0.363[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing, and that’s exactly what the A’s may get out of their DH spot this season. While I count myself as firmly planted on the Seth Smith bandwagon, when you combine a potentially part-time role, with no defensive value added and a big new ballpark, you get an equation with long odds for success. Having said that, if Smith and Gomes are used in a true platoon that leverages the strength of each, then they have a chance to better than this projection. As for Manny, it’s an open question as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank, but he is likely to defy his protection one way or the other.
12. Minnesota Twins
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Ryan Doumit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.319[/td][td]0.404[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Josh Willingham[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.347[/td][td]0.45[/td][td]150[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Trevor Plouffe[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.244[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]0.398[/td][td]150[/td][td]-0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Joe Mauer[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.302[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.432[/td][td]100[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham will make a combined $10 million this year, but that doesn’t mean that they will be contributing a lot to this season’s bottom line. Willingham should be just fine as a DH, but letting him roam the expanse that is right field at Target Field may be akin to improv theater. Mauer will likely get some “keep me fresh
Positional power rankings: Starting Pitchers #16-30.
Bourgeois, Ethier and incremental upgrades.
David Robertson's injury worse than first thought.
Glen Perkins signs extension with Twins.
This was a savvy move by the Twins. In his first full season working out of the bullpen, Perkins blossumed into an entirely new pitcher. As a starter, his strikeout rate had hung around 10% as his slider and change-up both generated mediocre amounts of whiffs. His fastballs averaged in the low-90 MPH range, making his overall repertoire middling.
But in the bullpen, Perkins let himself go. His fastball’s velocity jumped up to 94-95 MPH, and he ditched his change-up in favor of throwing his slider 30% of the time. He had never generated more than 28% Whiffs/Swing with any of his pitches before, but in 2012, hitters whiffed on his slider 40% of the time they swung at it. Perkins went from a replacement-level starter to closer material — not something you see happen every day.
The Twins don’t have a deep bullpen, so it makes sense that they’d want to lock up Perkins. His 2.41 FIP and 1.7 WAR led the Twins last season by a wide margin; the next best pitcher in their ‘pen was arguably Joe Nathan, who had a 4.28 FIP and finished the season with zero WAR. Their closer, Matt Capps, saw his strikeout rate plummet last season, and he blew 9 saves and posted a 4.75 FIP. It was a sorry bunch back there, and Perkins was the only consistent, reliable reliever that the Twins had.
By locking up Perkins before the season begins, the Twins essentially just inked their closer-of-the-future to a contract worthy of a set-up man. At the first sign of trouble from Capps, Perkins will likely be inserted as closer, and the Twins will have themselves a great closer signed to a very affordable control.
My only hesitancy is that Perkins is guaranteed money by the Twins for four seasons; that’s a long time to trust that Perkins will remain healthy and effective. Relief pitchers come and go, their performance fluctuates on a yearly basis, and they are a constant injury risk. Teams rarely sign relief pitchers to deals longer than two or three years, and even those sort of deals can blow up in a team’s face easily enough. This is a tad of a risky signing by the Twins — but at least it’s a small risk, as $12 million over four seasons isn’t so bad. Even if he regresses some or has some injury issues over the coming years, Perkins should still easily be worth this contract in the end.
Considering the current state of the Twins’ bullpen, this was a no-brainer decision. They may have six other holes, but at least they have one reliable reliever to count on in the future.
Positional power rankings: Designated Hitters.
Spoiler [+]
This series was a lot of work, but it was also fun to go through each organization and look at some of the interesting projections that ZIPS has spit out for various starters. The projections listed below are a combination of rate stats projected by Dan Szymborski’s system combined with my estimation of innings pitched and then a calculation of WAR based on the combination of my quantity estimate and Dan’s projection of quality. These aren’t intended to be exact projections, which is why we’ve rounded to the nearest half win, but I think they’re probably going to fair pretty decently – I did do my best to ensure that the total IP and WAR projections lined up very closely with league totals from last year, and I tried to figure out the seven or eight most likely starters for each franchise – the depth chart information isn’t always crystal clear for every team, so I had to make some guesses, but I think the selections are reasonable in most cases.
There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well.
Since we’re covering so many players and it just got incredibly long, we’ve split this post in two, with the second post set to run in a couple of hours. But, enough ramblings, on to the rankings.
30. San Diego Padres
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]SD[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Stauffer[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Richard[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Moseley[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Edinson Volquez[/td][td]SD[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Robbie Erlin[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Wieland[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Last year, the Padres rotation ranked 26th in WAR, and over the winter, they traded away their best starter. It may very well prove to be the right move in the long run, but for 2012, this rotation is pretty lousy. Luebke’s Major League numbers aren’t supported by his minor league track record, so he’s more solid starter than ace in the making. Petco may help keep the raw stats down, but make no mistake, San Diego’s starters are going to cost them games this year. The good news for Friars fans is that they’ve got a lot of good young arms on the way, and the sooner guys like Erlin and Wieland make it to the Majors, the better the team’s chances of competing will be. For this year, though, it probably won’t be very pretty.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]James McDonald[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Lincoln[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Correia[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Karstens[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erik Bedard[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]A.J. Burnett[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jo-Jo Reyes[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ve listed eight guys on the depth chart, but I can’t project any of them for more than 130 innings, so it looks like the Pirates are going to do rotation-by-committee this year. Bedard and Burnett could provide some value when they’re on the mound, but ZIPS isn’t overly high on the younger arms in the rotation and doesn’t like the back-end guys at all. Morton’s still a bit of a wild card and McDonald may have more upside than is represented here, but the Pirates have essentially assembled a bunch of guys from the infirmary and are hoping that they can find five guys who can keep their arms attached all year.
28. Colorado Rockies
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Guthrie[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Juan Nicasio[/td][td]COL[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Drew Pomeranz[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Esmil Rogers[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex White[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Guillermo Moscoso[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Chatwood[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.7[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jorge de la Rosa[/td][td]COL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Young arms with upside like Chacin, Nicasio, and Pomeranz give the Rockies the makings of a potentially solid rotation… next year. In 2012, ZIPS is expecting these guys to be average at best, and then the rotation is basically filled with an innings-eater and a bunch of guys who might be okay or might be terrible. The Rockies will be playing mix-and-match all year, and the hope should be that they can find three or four guys to rely on for 2013. The experimentation is going to cost them wins in 2012, however.
27. New York Mets
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathon Niese[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]R.A. Dickey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Pelfrey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johan Santana[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Schwinden[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][/table]
I like Jon Niese. I think he could turn into a really nice starting pitcher, maybe as soon as this year. But, even with some optimism there, if he’s your ace, your rotation needs some work. And the Mets rotation definitely needs some work. The back-end is amazingly thin, and the team desperately needs Johan Santana to stay healthy and pitch well in order to keep from having to rush too many kids to the big leagues prematurely. And, unfortunately for Sandy Alderson, the guys behind Niese aren’t exactly world beaters either. Dickey is okay, but Pelfrey’s not great, and those guys make up the middle of the rotation at the moment. Going forward, the Mets probably need to replace at least three of their five starters, and if Santana doesn’t bounce back, it gets even uglier. Good luck, Sandy.
26. Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bud Norris[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.A. Happ[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Harrell[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
If I had to bet on one rotation finishing the year with the worst numbers, I’d probably bet on Houston. Their current group includes a couple of good arms, but Wandy Rodriguez has been on the block for a while and could easily end the year in another uniform. The Astros are in full-on rebuilding mode and won’t hesitate to use the season as an extended tryout camp, and that could lead to a second half rotation that is more experiment than attempt to really compete. If Wandy sticks around, their rotation will just be not good instead of awful, but the chances that he gets moved create serious potential for a league worst rotation in Houston this year.
25. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jason Hammel[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tsuyoshi Wada[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hunter[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian Matusz[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]6.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Bergesen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles rotation is actually pretty tough to project. With both Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada, we’re basically just guessing. They could be good, they could awful, or they could be anything in between. Toss in Brian Matusz’s inconsistency, and 60% of the rotation could be essentially qualified as wild cards. ZIPS thinks Britton and Hammel will be roughly league average, so if the three coin flips come up positive, this rotation could be not awful, but if they all go the wrong way, then the Orioles will probably have the worst group of starters in the AL.
24. Chicago Cubs
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]8.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Dempster[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Volstad[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]165.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Maholm[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Travis Wood[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wells[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Samardzija[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I like what Theo Epstein did this winter, and I see more potential in guys like Wood and Volstad that what ZIPS is projecting, but regardless, this isn’t a very good rotation behind Garza, and ZIPS expects a pretty good sized step back from him as well. If you believe that Garza’s 2011 performance was more breakthrough than career year, you could bump this total up a bit, but even the rosiest projection is going to give the Cubs with a below average rotation this year.
23. Cincinnati Reds
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mat Latos[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Cueto[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Leake[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Homer Bailey[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.6[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Francis[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
When I ran the numbers and ordered by team total, I was shocked to see the Reds this low, but ZIPS is just not a big fan of Bailey or Leake, and top top it off, it hates Bronson Arroyo with the passion of a 1,000 burning souls. Of course, after watching him give up so many bombs last year, Reds fans probably feel the same way. Personally, I like Leake a lot more than ZIPS does, and I think Bailey could be quite a bit better than this as well, so I think the Reds are quite likely to outperform this projection. But, Latos doesn’t stack up with some of the other aces around the league, and the rotation has a lot of question marks at the back end. It’s possible that I’m just overrating Cincinnati’s starting pitching, and ZIPS is providing a needed reality check here.
22. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tom Milone[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]6.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon McCarthy[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Peacock[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]8.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bartolo Colon[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jarrod Parker[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dallas Braden[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyson Ross[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Anderson[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Okay, let’s talk about the elephant – ZIPS loves Tom Milone. Well, kind of. It projects a fantastic 3.28 FIP from him, thanks to a miniscule walk rate and decent enough strikeout and home run rates. However, ZIPS also projects a 4.02 ERA for him, so the system either thinks he’s going to post a crazy high BABIP or a crazy low strand rate. I’m guessing Milone is just the kind of pitcher that projection systems in general have trouble with, and he’ll underperform this projection. But, if you’re an A’s fan, you have to like the fact that ZIPS isn’t sure that going from Gonzalez to Milone is actually a downgrade. Besides the soft-tossing righty, however, the A’s have a lot of guys who are probably only going to spend about half a year on the team. Colon, Braden, and Anderson have health issues, while Parker and Peacock are both likely going to be on innings limits and might not break camp with the team anyway.
21. Kansas City Royals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Luke Hochevar[/td][td]KC[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Felipe Paulino[/td][td]KC[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]KC[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]8.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bruce Chen[/td][td]KC[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Crow[/td][td]KC[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]8.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Montgomery[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Duffy[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Odorizzi[/td][td]KC[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ll give them this – the Royals have depth. Paulino is projected to be the team’s best starter, and then the Royals can run out six guys who all project about the same on a rate basis, giving them seven arms who each have some value as a big league hurler. Depending on who they pick to fill out the rotation, Crow could end up back in the bullpen, which would free up innings for a guy like Duffy, but the alignment doesn’t look like it will matter too much – they’re going to run out a group of five starters that aren’t bad but aren’t good either. Before the Royals become legitimate contenders, they’re going to have to add a legitimate quality starter or two.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Hudson[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ian Kennedy[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Saunders[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Bauer[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Skaggs[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
Along with the Reds placement, this is the one that I expect to ruffle the most feathers. The D’Backs were one of just six teams to get 1,000+ innings out of their rotation last year, and with Kennedy and Hudson at the front end and Bauer and Skaggs on the way, it’s not like there’s age related decline to worry about. But, in reality, the D’Backs staff just overperformed last year relative to their talent levels, and ZIPS expects some real steps backwards in 2012. Replacing Collmenter and Saunders with the young kids could lead to some real improvement, but Arizona doesn’t have as much depth here as they think, and their front-end guys aren’t as good as their performances last year made them look. There’s certainly potential for a really good rotation in Arizona, but it might come in 2013 instead of 2012.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ricky Romero[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]210.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Morrow[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]9.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Henderson Alvarez[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Cecil[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle Drabek[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carlos Villanueva[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesse Litsch[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin McGowan[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]6.7[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
With Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez, ZIPS sees the makings of a strong rotation going forward, but the lack of quality at the back-end looks to be a real problem this year. That said, there is some talent there, and it’s not completely out of the question that a guy like Drabek could find the form that made him a real prospect a few years ago. If the Blue Jays want to contend for the second wild card, though, they’d do well to get a solid veteran who would raise the floor of what they could expect from their #5 starter, and keep an implosion from the young kids from ruining their season.
18. Atlanta Braves
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]9.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jair Jurrjens[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hanson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Julio Teheran[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randall Delgado[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The issue here isn’t talent as much as it is health. Tim Hudson’s out for at least the beginning portion of the season, Jair Jurrjens has a litany of health issues, and Tommy Hanson remade his delivery in order to take some strain off his shoulder. The Braves have the depth to deal with a patchwork group, but they lack a true ace at the front, and Teheran and Delgado might not be ready to be more than stop-gaps at this point. Strong seasons from Beachy and Minor would certainly help stabilize things in Atlanta, but for this year, there are going to be a lot of questions that need answering.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]10.1[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]5.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yovani Gallardo[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]9.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wolf[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Narveson[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wily Peralta[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Greinke and Gallardo are a really good 1-2, but Marcum’s September collapse and miserable performance in the playoffs, combined with lingering shoulder problems, mean that this rotation falls off very quickly. Wolf is a nice #5 starter, but he’s penciled in as the #4 for the Brewers, and while Narveson is somewhat useful, they might want to make room for Wily Peralta sooner than later. Especially with Greinke in his walk year, the team would benefit significantly if he was able to claim a rotation spot at some point this year and pitch well enough to hold it for 2013.
16. Washington Nationals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Edwin Jackson[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4505&position=PJordan Zimmermann[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]7.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]9.2[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Lannan[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]4.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ross Detwiler[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chien-Ming Wang[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tom Gorzelanny[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
I was relatively conservative with the innings projections for Strasburg and Zimmerman, so if you think both can stay healthy and pitch something close to a full season, you could bump the Nationals up quite a bit here. Even just giving both of those guys an addition 30 innings would push Washington’s rotation into the top 10, so don’t get too upset over the placement here. There’s obviously a lot of potential here – how well their rotation performs basically depends on how many innings they can get from their young ace, and how quickly they can dump Lannan on someone else.
There were definitely some surprises once I finished the calculations and sorted from top to bottom. If this a purely subjective exercise based on my opinion, some teams would move around a decent amount, but I’ve tried to make it clear where I think the ZIPS rate stats might be too high or too low on a specific group, or gave an explanation for the thinking behind the IP total. Besides the shocker in the top five, I’m pretty comfortable with most of these, and think they line up with general consensus pretty well.
Since we’re covering so many players and it just got incredibly long, we’ve split this post in two, with the second post set to run in a couple of hours. But, enough ramblings, on to the rankings.
30. San Diego Padres
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Cory Luebke[/td][td]SD[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Stauffer[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Clayton Richard[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin Moseley[/td][td]SD[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Edinson Volquez[/td][td]SD[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Robbie Erlin[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Wieland[/td][td]SD[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Last year, the Padres rotation ranked 26th in WAR, and over the winter, they traded away their best starter. It may very well prove to be the right move in the long run, but for 2012, this rotation is pretty lousy. Luebke’s Major League numbers aren’t supported by his minor league track record, so he’s more solid starter than ace in the making. Petco may help keep the raw stats down, but make no mistake, San Diego’s starters are going to cost them games this year. The good news for Friars fans is that they’ve got a lot of good young arms on the way, and the sooner guys like Erlin and Wieland make it to the Majors, the better the team’s chances of competing will be. For this year, though, it probably won’t be very pretty.
29. Pittsburgh Pirates
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Charlie Morton[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]James McDonald[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Lincoln[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kevin Correia[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Karstens[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Erik Bedard[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]A.J. Burnett[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jo-Jo Reyes[/td][td]PIT[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ve listed eight guys on the depth chart, but I can’t project any of them for more than 130 innings, so it looks like the Pirates are going to do rotation-by-committee this year. Bedard and Burnett could provide some value when they’re on the mound, but ZIPS isn’t overly high on the younger arms in the rotation and doesn’t like the back-end guys at all. Morton’s still a bit of a wild card and McDonald may have more upside than is represented here, but the Pirates have essentially assembled a bunch of guys from the infirmary and are hoping that they can find five guys who can keep their arms attached all year.
28. Colorado Rockies
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jhoulys Chacin[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Guthrie[/td][td]COL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Juan Nicasio[/td][td]COL[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Drew Pomeranz[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Esmil Rogers[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Alex White[/td][td]COL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Guillermo Moscoso[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Chatwood[/td][td]COL[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.7[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jorge de la Rosa[/td][td]COL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Young arms with upside like Chacin, Nicasio, and Pomeranz give the Rockies the makings of a potentially solid rotation… next year. In 2012, ZIPS is expecting these guys to be average at best, and then the rotation is basically filled with an innings-eater and a bunch of guys who might be okay or might be terrible. The Rockies will be playing mix-and-match all year, and the hope should be that they can find three or four guys to rely on for 2013. The experimentation is going to cost them wins in 2012, however.
27. New York Mets
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jonathon Niese[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]R.A. Dickey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Pelfrey[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dillon Gee[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johan Santana[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Schwinden[/td][td]NYN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][/table]
I like Jon Niese. I think he could turn into a really nice starting pitcher, maybe as soon as this year. But, even with some optimism there, if he’s your ace, your rotation needs some work. And the Mets rotation definitely needs some work. The back-end is amazingly thin, and the team desperately needs Johan Santana to stay healthy and pitch well in order to keep from having to rush too many kids to the big leagues prematurely. And, unfortunately for Sandy Alderson, the guys behind Niese aren’t exactly world beaters either. Dickey is okay, but Pelfrey’s not great, and those guys make up the middle of the rotation at the moment. Going forward, the Mets probably need to replace at least three of their five starters, and if Santana doesn’t bounce back, it gets even uglier. Good luck, Sandy.
26. Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Bud Norris[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]8.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wandy Rodriguez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jordan Lyles[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]J.A. Happ[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Livan Hernandez[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]130.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lucas Harrell[/td][td]HOU[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
If I had to bet on one rotation finishing the year with the worst numbers, I’d probably bet on Houston. Their current group includes a couple of good arms, but Wandy Rodriguez has been on the block for a while and could easily end the year in another uniform. The Astros are in full-on rebuilding mode and won’t hesitate to use the season as an extended tryout camp, and that could lead to a second half rotation that is more experiment than attempt to really compete. If Wandy sticks around, their rotation will just be not good instead of awful, but the chances that he gets moved create serious potential for a league worst rotation in Houston this year.
25. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Jason Hammel[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Zach Britton[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tsuyoshi Wada[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wei-Yin Chen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hunter[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]5.0[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brian Matusz[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]6.6[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Bergesen[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Arrieta[/td][td]BAL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles rotation is actually pretty tough to project. With both Wei-Yin Chen and Tsuyoshi Wada, we’re basically just guessing. They could be good, they could awful, or they could be anything in between. Toss in Brian Matusz’s inconsistency, and 60% of the rotation could be essentially qualified as wild cards. ZIPS thinks Britton and Hammel will be roughly league average, so if the three coin flips come up positive, this rotation could be not awful, but if they all go the wrong way, then the Orioles will probably have the worst group of starters in the AL.
24. Chicago Cubs
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Matt Garza[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]8.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Dempster[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Volstad[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]165.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Paul Maholm[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Travis Wood[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wells[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]5.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Samardzija[/td][td]CHN[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I like what Theo Epstein did this winter, and I see more potential in guys like Wood and Volstad that what ZIPS is projecting, but regardless, this isn’t a very good rotation behind Garza, and ZIPS expects a pretty good sized step back from him as well. If you believe that Garza’s 2011 performance was more breakthrough than career year, you could bump this total up a bit, but even the rosiest projection is going to give the Cubs with a below average rotation this year.
23. Cincinnati Reds
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Mat Latos[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Johnny Cueto[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Leake[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Homer Bailey[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bronson Arroyo[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.6[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Francis[/td][td]CIN[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.1[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
When I ran the numbers and ordered by team total, I was shocked to see the Reds this low, but ZIPS is just not a big fan of Bailey or Leake, and top top it off, it hates Bronson Arroyo with the passion of a 1,000 burning souls. Of course, after watching him give up so many bombs last year, Reds fans probably feel the same way. Personally, I like Leake a lot more than ZIPS does, and I think Bailey could be quite a bit better than this as well, so I think the Reds are quite likely to outperform this projection. But, Latos doesn’t stack up with some of the other aces around the league, and the rotation has a lot of question marks at the back end. It’s possible that I’m just overrating Cincinnati’s starting pitching, and ZIPS is providing a needed reality check here.
22. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Tom Milone[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]6.5[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon McCarthy[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brad Peacock[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]8.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bartolo Colon[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jarrod Parker[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dallas Braden[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]5.7[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyson Ross[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Anderson[/td][td]OAK[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]2.3[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Okay, let’s talk about the elephant – ZIPS loves Tom Milone. Well, kind of. It projects a fantastic 3.28 FIP from him, thanks to a miniscule walk rate and decent enough strikeout and home run rates. However, ZIPS also projects a 4.02 ERA for him, so the system either thinks he’s going to post a crazy high BABIP or a crazy low strand rate. I’m guessing Milone is just the kind of pitcher that projection systems in general have trouble with, and he’ll underperform this projection. But, if you’re an A’s fan, you have to like the fact that ZIPS isn’t sure that going from Gonzalez to Milone is actually a downgrade. Besides the soft-tossing righty, however, the A’s have a lot of guys who are probably only going to spend about half a year on the team. Colon, Braden, and Anderson have health issues, while Parker and Peacock are both likely going to be on innings limits and might not break camp with the team anyway.
21. Kansas City Royals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Luke Hochevar[/td][td]KC[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.9[/td][td]6.0[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Felipe Paulino[/td][td]KC[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jonathan Sanchez[/td][td]KC[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]8.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Bruce Chen[/td][td]KC[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Aaron Crow[/td][td]KC[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.5[/td][td]8.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Montgomery[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Danny Duffy[/td][td]KC[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.7[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jake Odorizzi[/td][td]KC[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.0[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
I’ll give them this – the Royals have depth. Paulino is projected to be the team’s best starter, and then the Royals can run out six guys who all project about the same on a rate basis, giving them seven arms who each have some value as a big league hurler. Depending on who they pick to fill out the rotation, Crow could end up back in the bullpen, which would free up innings for a guy like Duffy, but the alignment doesn’t look like it will matter too much – they’re going to run out a group of five starters that aren’t bad but aren’t good either. Before the Royals become legitimate contenders, they’re going to have to add a legitimate quality starter or two.
20. Arizona Diamondbacks
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Daniel Hudson[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ian Kennedy[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]7.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Cahill[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]190.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.4[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Joe Saunders[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]5.1[/td][td]1.3[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Josh Collmenter[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Trevor Bauer[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tyler Skaggs[/td][td]ARI[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.9[/td][td]7.1[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
Along with the Reds placement, this is the one that I expect to ruffle the most feathers. The D’Backs were one of just six teams to get 1,000+ innings out of their rotation last year, and with Kennedy and Hudson at the front end and Bauer and Skaggs on the way, it’s not like there’s age related decline to worry about. But, in reality, the D’Backs staff just overperformed last year relative to their talent levels, and ZIPS expects some real steps backwards in 2012. Replacing Collmenter and Saunders with the young kids could lead to some real improvement, but Arizona doesn’t have as much depth here as they think, and their front-end guys aren’t as good as their performances last year made them look. There’s certainly potential for a really good rotation in Arizona, but it might come in 2013 instead of 2012.
19. Toronto Blue Jays
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Ricky Romero[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]210.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Morrow[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]9.6[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Henderson Alvarez[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]1.8[/td][td]5.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Brett Cecil[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.3[/td][td]1.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Kyle Drabek[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]5.3[/td][td]5.4[/td][td]1.3[/td][td](0.5)[/td][/tr][tr][td]Carlos Villanueva[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jesse Litsch[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.2[/td][td]1.4[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Dustin McGowan[/td][td]TOR[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.2[/td][td]6.7[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
With Romero, Morrow, and Alvarez, ZIPS sees the makings of a strong rotation going forward, but the lack of quality at the back-end looks to be a real problem this year. That said, there is some talent there, and it’s not completely out of the question that a guy like Drabek could find the form that made him a real prospect a few years ago. If the Blue Jays want to contend for the second wild card, though, they’d do well to get a solid veteran who would raise the floor of what they could expect from their #5 starter, and keep an implosion from the young kids from ruining their season.
18. Atlanta Braves
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Brandon Beachy[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]9.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Mike Minor[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]180.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]8.5[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jair Jurrjens[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]160.0[/td][td]3.0[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tommy Hanson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.8[/td][td]8.9[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tim Hudson[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]5.9[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Julio Teheran[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]3.4[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randall Delgado[/td][td]ATL[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]4.1[/td][td]7.2[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]-[/td][/tr][/table]
The issue here isn’t talent as much as it is health. Tim Hudson’s out for at least the beginning portion of the season, Jair Jurrjens has a litany of health issues, and Tommy Hanson remade his delivery in order to take some strain off his shoulder. The Braves have the depth to deal with a patchwork group, but they lack a true ace at the front, and Teheran and Delgado might not be ready to be more than stop-gaps at this point. Strong seasons from Beachy and Minor would certainly help stabilize things in Atlanta, but for this year, there are going to be a lot of questions that need answering.
17. Milwaukee Brewers
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Zack Greinke[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]10.1[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]5.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yovani Gallardo[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.2[/td][td]9.5[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]3.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Randy Wolf[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]170.0[/td][td]3.1[/td][td]6.1[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Shaun Marcum[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]7.7[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]2.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chris Narveson[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]140.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.3[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]1.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Wily Peralta[/td][td]MIL[/td][td]100.0[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]7.0[/td][td]1.0[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
Greinke and Gallardo are a really good 1-2, but Marcum’s September collapse and miserable performance in the playoffs, combined with lingering shoulder problems, mean that this rotation falls off very quickly. Wolf is a nice #5 starter, but he’s penciled in as the #4 for the Brewers, and while Narveson is somewhat useful, they might want to make room for Wily Peralta sooner than later. Especially with Greinke in his walk year, the team would benefit significantly if he was able to claim a rotation spot at some point this year and pitch well enough to hold it for 2013.
16. Washington Nationals
[table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]TM[/th][th=""]IP[/th][th=""]BB/9[/th][th=""]K/9[/th][th=""]HR/9[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Edwin Jackson[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]200.0[/td][td]2.6[/td][td]6.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Gio Gonzalez[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]195.0[/td][td]3.8[/td][td]8.8[/td][td]0.8[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4505&position=PJordan Zimmermann[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]150.0[/td][td]2.2[/td][td]7.4[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]2.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Stephen Strasburg[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]2.7[/td][td]9.2[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]3.0[/td][/tr][tr][td]John Lannan[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]120.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]4.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ross Detwiler[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]3.3[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]0.7[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Chien-Ming Wang[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]75.0[/td][td]2.4[/td][td]4.6[/td][td]1.1[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Tom Gorzelanny[/td][td]WAS[/td][td]50.0[/td][td]3.6[/td][td]7.8[/td][td]0.9[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][/table]
I was relatively conservative with the innings projections for Strasburg and Zimmerman, so if you think both can stay healthy and pitch something close to a full season, you could bump the Nationals up quite a bit here. Even just giving both of those guys an addition 30 innings would push Washington’s rotation into the top 10, so don’t get too upset over the placement here. There’s obviously a lot of potential here – how well their rotation performs basically depends on how many innings they can get from their young ace, and how quickly they can dump Lannan on someone else.
Bourgeois, Ethier and incremental upgrades.
Spoiler [+]
The Nationals have been trying to solve their center field situation for quite some time, having their trade efforts rebuked and their name linked to mediocre stopgap solutions.
Last season, they were in the mix for both http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OFMichael Bourn and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OFB.J. Upton but watched as division rival Atlanta acquired the former, while the latter stayed in Tampa and helped the Rays make the playoffs on the season’s final day. This offseason, the Nats have reportedly expressed interest in http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8553&position=OFGerardo Parra as a long-term solution, have considered http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2225&position=OFhttp://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389222&position=CJason Bourgeois as a temporary stopgap, and have toyed with the idea of moving http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OFJayson Werth over to make room for http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa548033&position=OFBryce Harper.
In the meantime, they signed http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OFMike Cameron and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1142&position=OFRick Ankiel to minor league deals and are still considering http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6421&position=OFRoger Bernadina for an extended look. Cameron retired, which leaves the in-house options at Bernadina or Ankiel if they want to keep Werth in right field. The only realistic external option at this point is Bourgeois, and when he represents the best anything, we’re discussing a problem without a clear solution.
If Bryce Harper is going to make the major league team, moving Werth to center field is the Nationals best bet right now. If not, the talent they have internally is just as good as the realistic external options. They shouldn’t make a deal if the upgrade is merely incremental, as that represents a short-term patch for a problem they need to solve long-term.
While center field is a position integral to the success of a major league team, the Nationals situation speaks to the larger issue of their overall roster construction: they have several similar pieces that will potentially get shuffled when Harper arrives.
If Parra is acquired, for example, and Harper makes the team out of spring training, then http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=1B/OFMichael Morse probably shifts to first base, which makes http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1904&position=1BAdam LaRoche an expensive bench player. Teams aren’t exactly going to bombard the Nats with phone calls regarding LaRoche’s availability, so they either play him and lose production by sitting Morse, or play Morse and pay LaRoche to sit on the bench or to play elsewhere through an outright release.
If Harper doesn’t break camp with the team, there is no need to trade prospects for a Bourgeois, when he, Ankiel or Bernadina are only going to man the position for a month or two. Plus, Bourgeois doesn’t offer anything that the other two don’t. He doesn’t have much major league experience and has only played 400 career innings in center field, and at 30 years old doesn’t have an age advantage either. It isn’t as if he represents a junior varsity version of Bourn, one of the highest-rated centerfielders over the last few seasons. In fact, since 2009, there is virtually no difference between Bourgeois, Ankiel and Bernadina:
[table][tr][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]G[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]BsR[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rick Ankiel[/td][td]318[/td][td]1059[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]-1[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Bourgeois[/td][td]186[/td][td]428[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1[/td][td]1.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roger Bernadina[/td][td]228[/td][td]803[/td][td]0.308[/td][td]-4.2[/td][td]2[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][/table]
In looking at those numbers I struggle to see any reason to actually trade something from the Nats system to acquire Bourgeois. He may be a more natural fit in center than Ankiel, but there isn’t enough evidence to bear out the advantage of playing him at the position over Bernadina. And considering that, by most accounts, Harper is going to play for the Nationals this season, why bother trading for a two-month player, let alone one that isn’t any better than players already on the roster?
However, all of this is predicated on the belief that Harper plays in the major leagues. If the Nationals’ interest in players like Parra or Bourgeois is signaling that Harper may spend more time in the minors this season, then there is a better way to improve the team and potentially contend for a playoff berth: move Werth to center, regardless, and look to acquire Andre Ethier or a similar player for right field. The Nationals have a long-term center field problem to solve, but for 2012, it seems reasonable to think Werth could handle the position as well as, if not better than, Ankiel or Bernadina.
Ethier is only under contract for this season and is set to make ~$11 million. The Dodgers haven’t been quick to discuss an extension with him and, let’s face it, aren’t going anywhere this season. The Nationals could unload a mid-level prospect or two to bring him in and create a very solid outfield with he, Werth and Morse.
They don’t have to extend him beyond this season, with Werth and Morse under contract and Harper knocking on the door. And while Ethier isn’t a superstar, he is somewhat known around households, would create some more buzz and, most importantly, would improve the Nationals’ playoff odds this season more than Bernadina, Ankiel or Bourgeois.
Credit the Nationals for attempting to solve their problem in a creative fashion, by using an effective stopgap in Cameron, acquiring Parra or considering Harper-placeholders like Bourgeois. But this is a situation where they can improve the team by acquiring another corner outfielder and moving Werth to center for the upcoming season.
If Harper is going to make it to the majors before July, their most optimal outfield alignment is he, Werth and Morse from right to left field, and the most reasonable solution is to just use Bernadina or Ankiel until he arrives.
Otherwise, the Nationals are better off looking at Ethier as a one-year rental until Harper is ready, and making a stronger push for Upton or Bourn after the season. Werth isn’t a long-term solution in center, but using him there and shoring up right field in his wake is a happy medium between punting center field altogether with Ankiel, Bourgeois or Bernadina, and making the major splash with Upton or Bourn.
Last season, they were in the mix for both http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6387&position=OFMichael Bourn and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5015&position=OFB.J. Upton but watched as division rival Atlanta acquired the former, while the latter stayed in Tampa and helped the Rays make the playoffs on the season’s final day. This offseason, the Nats have reportedly expressed interest in http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8553&position=OFGerardo Parra as a long-term solution, have considered http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2225&position=OFhttp://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa389222&position=CJason Bourgeois as a temporary stopgap, and have toyed with the idea of moving http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1327&position=OFJayson Werth over to make room for http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa548033&position=OFBryce Harper.
In the meantime, they signed http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1070&position=OFMike Cameron and http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1142&position=OFRick Ankiel to minor league deals and are still considering http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6421&position=OFRoger Bernadina for an extended look. Cameron retired, which leaves the in-house options at Bernadina or Ankiel if they want to keep Werth in right field. The only realistic external option at this point is Bourgeois, and when he represents the best anything, we’re discussing a problem without a clear solution.
If Bryce Harper is going to make the major league team, moving Werth to center field is the Nationals best bet right now. If not, the talent they have internally is just as good as the realistic external options. They shouldn’t make a deal if the upgrade is merely incremental, as that represents a short-term patch for a problem they need to solve long-term.
While center field is a position integral to the success of a major league team, the Nationals situation speaks to the larger issue of their overall roster construction: they have several similar pieces that will potentially get shuffled when Harper arrives.
If Parra is acquired, for example, and Harper makes the team out of spring training, then http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3035&position=1B/OFMichael Morse probably shifts to first base, which makes http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1904&position=1BAdam LaRoche an expensive bench player. Teams aren’t exactly going to bombard the Nats with phone calls regarding LaRoche’s availability, so they either play him and lose production by sitting Morse, or play Morse and pay LaRoche to sit on the bench or to play elsewhere through an outright release.
If Harper doesn’t break camp with the team, there is no need to trade prospects for a Bourgeois, when he, Ankiel or Bernadina are only going to man the position for a month or two. Plus, Bourgeois doesn’t offer anything that the other two don’t. He doesn’t have much major league experience and has only played 400 career innings in center field, and at 30 years old doesn’t have an age advantage either. It isn’t as if he represents a junior varsity version of Bourn, one of the highest-rated centerfielders over the last few seasons. In fact, since 2009, there is virtually no difference between Bourgeois, Ankiel and Bernadina:
[table][tr][th=""]Name[/th][th=""]G[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]wOBA[/th][th=""]Fld[/th][th=""]BsR[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Rick Ankiel[/td][td]318[/td][td]1059[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]5.6[/td][td]-1[/td][td]2.2[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jason Bourgeois[/td][td]186[/td][td]428[/td][td]0.297[/td][td]7.6[/td][td]1[/td][td]1.6[/td][/tr][tr][td]Roger Bernadina[/td][td]228[/td][td]803[/td][td]0.308[/td][td]-4.2[/td][td]2[/td][td]1.4[/td][/tr][/table]
In looking at those numbers I struggle to see any reason to actually trade something from the Nats system to acquire Bourgeois. He may be a more natural fit in center than Ankiel, but there isn’t enough evidence to bear out the advantage of playing him at the position over Bernadina. And considering that, by most accounts, Harper is going to play for the Nationals this season, why bother trading for a two-month player, let alone one that isn’t any better than players already on the roster?
However, all of this is predicated on the belief that Harper plays in the major leagues. If the Nationals’ interest in players like Parra or Bourgeois is signaling that Harper may spend more time in the minors this season, then there is a better way to improve the team and potentially contend for a playoff berth: move Werth to center, regardless, and look to acquire Andre Ethier or a similar player for right field. The Nationals have a long-term center field problem to solve, but for 2012, it seems reasonable to think Werth could handle the position as well as, if not better than, Ankiel or Bernadina.
Ethier is only under contract for this season and is set to make ~$11 million. The Dodgers haven’t been quick to discuss an extension with him and, let’s face it, aren’t going anywhere this season. The Nationals could unload a mid-level prospect or two to bring him in and create a very solid outfield with he, Werth and Morse.
They don’t have to extend him beyond this season, with Werth and Morse under contract and Harper knocking on the door. And while Ethier isn’t a superstar, he is somewhat known around households, would create some more buzz and, most importantly, would improve the Nationals’ playoff odds this season more than Bernadina, Ankiel or Bourgeois.
Credit the Nationals for attempting to solve their problem in a creative fashion, by using an effective stopgap in Cameron, acquiring Parra or considering Harper-placeholders like Bourgeois. But this is a situation where they can improve the team by acquiring another corner outfielder and moving Werth to center for the upcoming season.
If Harper is going to make it to the majors before July, their most optimal outfield alignment is he, Werth and Morse from right to left field, and the most reasonable solution is to just use Bernadina or Ankiel until he arrives.
Otherwise, the Nationals are better off looking at Ethier as a one-year rental until Harper is ready, and making a stronger push for Upton or Bourn after the season. Werth isn’t a long-term solution in center, but using him there and shoring up right field in his wake is a happy medium between punting center field altogether with Ankiel, Bourgeois or Bernadina, and making the major splash with Upton or Bourn.
David Robertson's injury worse than first thought.
Spoiler [+]
New York Yankees set-man David Robertson’s status for opening day could be in question. The key high-leverage reliever injured his foot while stumbling on a set of stairs. Robertson – who is currently in a walking boot – had an MRI on the foot, which raised further questions about the severity of the injury, according to manager Joe Girardi. The right-hander will undergo further tests, including a CT scan and a weight-bearing x-ray.
The injury – if serious enough for Robertson to miss significant time – could put added strain on the Yankees bullpen with Rafael Soriano, coming off an injury of his own, likely moving up to take the key eighth-inning duties. It could also increase the roles of pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Dellin Betances, giving them a chance to shine. The organization has a lot of depth in the starting rotation, but less so in the bullpen.
Robertson, who is the likely heir apparent to closer Mariano Rivera, was almost unhittable (5.40 H/9) and tied for sixth in the Majors in reliever shutdowns with 37. He fanned 13.50 batters per nine innings and allowed just one home run in more than 60 innings of work. Most 2012 projections had Robertson posting numbers that would place him among the best in the Majors once again.
The loss of Robertson for a significant period of time will not have the same impact as losing someone like Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira but it could very well cost the club a couple of wins early on in the season. Foot injuries also have a habit of lingering. With any luck Robertson’s injury will prove to be modest with only a few weeks on the sidelines.
The injury – if serious enough for Robertson to miss significant time – could put added strain on the Yankees bullpen with Rafael Soriano, coming off an injury of his own, likely moving up to take the key eighth-inning duties. It could also increase the roles of pitchers such as Phil Hughes and Dellin Betances, giving them a chance to shine. The organization has a lot of depth in the starting rotation, but less so in the bullpen.
Robertson, who is the likely heir apparent to closer Mariano Rivera, was almost unhittable (5.40 H/9) and tied for sixth in the Majors in reliever shutdowns with 37. He fanned 13.50 batters per nine innings and allowed just one home run in more than 60 innings of work. Most 2012 projections had Robertson posting numbers that would place him among the best in the Majors once again.
The loss of Robertson for a significant period of time will not have the same impact as losing someone like Robinson Cano or Mark Teixeira but it could very well cost the club a couple of wins early on in the season. Foot injuries also have a habit of lingering. With any luck Robertson’s injury will prove to be modest with only a few weeks on the sidelines.
Glen Perkins signs extension with Twins.
Spoiler [+]
It doesn’t get talked about very often, but spring training serves a dual purpose for many teams. Not only is it a time to get their players warmed up and ready for the regular season, but it’s also a perfect time for teams and players to finalize contract extensions. Free agent acquisitions are finished for the year and the off-season madness is in the past, so teams have the free time to focus on locking up their players. Coming into today, there had already been seven extensions signed since the beginning of spring training…and the Twins just added number eight:
This was a savvy move by the Twins. In his first full season working out of the bullpen, Perkins blossumed into an entirely new pitcher. As a starter, his strikeout rate had hung around 10% as his slider and change-up both generated mediocre amounts of whiffs. His fastballs averaged in the low-90 MPH range, making his overall repertoire middling.
But in the bullpen, Perkins let himself go. His fastball’s velocity jumped up to 94-95 MPH, and he ditched his change-up in favor of throwing his slider 30% of the time. He had never generated more than 28% Whiffs/Swing with any of his pitches before, but in 2012, hitters whiffed on his slider 40% of the time they swung at it. Perkins went from a replacement-level starter to closer material — not something you see happen every day.
The Twins don’t have a deep bullpen, so it makes sense that they’d want to lock up Perkins. His 2.41 FIP and 1.7 WAR led the Twins last season by a wide margin; the next best pitcher in their ‘pen was arguably Joe Nathan, who had a 4.28 FIP and finished the season with zero WAR. Their closer, Matt Capps, saw his strikeout rate plummet last season, and he blew 9 saves and posted a 4.75 FIP. It was a sorry bunch back there, and Perkins was the only consistent, reliable reliever that the Twins had.
By locking up Perkins before the season begins, the Twins essentially just inked their closer-of-the-future to a contract worthy of a set-up man. At the first sign of trouble from Capps, Perkins will likely be inserted as closer, and the Twins will have themselves a great closer signed to a very affordable control.
My only hesitancy is that Perkins is guaranteed money by the Twins for four seasons; that’s a long time to trust that Perkins will remain healthy and effective. Relief pitchers come and go, their performance fluctuates on a yearly basis, and they are a constant injury risk. Teams rarely sign relief pitchers to deals longer than two or three years, and even those sort of deals can blow up in a team’s face easily enough. This is a tad of a risky signing by the Twins — but at least it’s a small risk, as $12 million over four seasons isn’t so bad. Even if he regresses some or has some injury issues over the coming years, Perkins should still easily be worth this contract in the end.
Considering the current state of the Twins’ bullpen, this was a no-brainer decision. They may have six other holes, but at least they have one reliable reliever to count on in the future.
Positional power rankings: Designated Hitters.
Spoiler [+]
Whether you believe that every team should have a designated hitter, or that no teams should have one, there is no denying that the DH is an interesting position. While it’s still a position of high-octane performance — as a position, DH’s .771 OPS was second-best in the American League, behind only first base — it is also the one that most resembles a carousel. Last season, teams started — on average — more than nine different DH’s. Seven teams — the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rangers, Rays, Twins, White Sox and Yankees — had more different starting DH’s than they did starting pitchers. If you’re scoring at home, that’s half the AL.
All of which is to say that predicting who will get the most playing time at DH for each team can be a bit of a crapshoot. But that’s not going to stop us from trying.
One other thing to keep in mind — when it comes to WAR, it is a little bit harder for a DH to build up an elite season, due to the heavy positional adjustment that is taken into account.
14. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Wilson Betemit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.252[/td][td]0.316[/td][td]0.430[/td][td]400[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Nolan Reimold[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.246[/td][td]0.325[/td][td]0.416[/td][td]150[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Mark Reynolds[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.218[/td][td]0.32[/td][td]0.461[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Chris Davis[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.25[/td][td]0.299[/td][td]0.440[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles don’t have much to crow about these days. Wilson Betemit finished last season on fire, but ZiPS is not buying in for a return engagement. Nolan Reimold seems the most likely to beat his projection of this bunch, but he with two good seasons sandwiched around a dismal, albeit injury-shortened campaign, it’s still hard to know what to expect from him. Mark Reynolds, who by all rights should only be a DH at this point, is still going to see some time in the field for some reason, otherwise he might see a positive figure here. And while Chris Davis is only going to be 26 this year, it may be time to stop waiting for him to put it all together.
13. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Seth Smith[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.245[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.408[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Jonny Gomes[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]0.309[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Manny Ramirez[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.241[/td][td]0.342[/td][td]0.363[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing, and that’s exactly what the A’s may get out of their DH spot this season. While I count myself as firmly planted on the Seth Smith bandwagon, when you combine a potentially part-time role, with no defensive value added and a big new ballpark, you get an equation with long odds for success. Having said that, if Smith and Gomes are used in a true platoon that leverages the strength of each, then they have a chance to better than this projection. As for Manny, it’s an open question as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank, but he is likely to defy his protection one way or the other.
12. Minnesota Twins
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Ryan Doumit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.319[/td][td]0.404[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Josh Willingham[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.347[/td][td]0.45[/td][td]150[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Trevor Plouffe[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.244[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]0.398[/td][td]150[/td][td]-0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Joe Mauer[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.302[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.432[/td][td]100[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham will make a combined $10 million this year, but that doesn’t mean that they will be contributing a lot to this season’s bottom line. Willingham should be just fine as a DH, but letting him roam the expanse that is right field at Target Field may be akin to improv theater. Mauer will likely get some “keep me fresh
All of which is to say that predicting who will get the most playing time at DH for each team can be a bit of a crapshoot. But that’s not going to stop us from trying.
One other thing to keep in mind — when it comes to WAR, it is a little bit harder for a DH to build up an elite season, due to the heavy positional adjustment that is taken into account.
14. Baltimore Orioles
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Wilson Betemit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.252[/td][td]0.316[/td][td]0.430[/td][td]400[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Nolan Reimold[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.246[/td][td]0.325[/td][td]0.416[/td][td]150[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Mark Reynolds[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.218[/td][td]0.32[/td][td]0.461[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Chris Davis[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.25[/td][td]0.299[/td][td]0.440[/td][td]75[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
The Orioles don’t have much to crow about these days. Wilson Betemit finished last season on fire, but ZiPS is not buying in for a return engagement. Nolan Reimold seems the most likely to beat his projection of this bunch, but he with two good seasons sandwiched around a dismal, albeit injury-shortened campaign, it’s still hard to know what to expect from him. Mark Reynolds, who by all rights should only be a DH at this point, is still going to see some time in the field for some reason, otherwise he might see a positive figure here. And while Chris Davis is only going to be 26 this year, it may be time to stop waiting for him to put it all together.
13. Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Seth Smith[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.245[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.408[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Jonny Gomes[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.220[/td][td]0.309[/td][td]0.374[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Manny Ramirez[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.241[/td][td]0.342[/td][td]0.363[/td][td]200[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Nothing from nothing leaves nothing, and that’s exactly what the A’s may get out of their DH spot this season. While I count myself as firmly planted on the Seth Smith bandwagon, when you combine a potentially part-time role, with no defensive value added and a big new ballpark, you get an equation with long odds for success. Having said that, if Smith and Gomes are used in a true platoon that leverages the strength of each, then they have a chance to better than this projection. As for Manny, it’s an open question as to whether or not he has anything left in the tank, but he is likely to defy his protection one way or the other.
12. Minnesota Twins
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPS BA[/th][th=""]ZiPS OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPS SLG[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Ryan Doumit[/td][td]S[/td][td]0.256[/td][td]0.319[/td][td]0.404[/td][td]300[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Josh Willingham[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.247[/td][td]0.347[/td][td]0.45[/td][td]150[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Trevor Plouffe[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.244[/td][td]0.296[/td][td]0.398[/td][td]150[/td][td]-0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Joe Mauer[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.302[/td][td]0.38[/td][td]0.432[/td][td]100[/td][td]0[/td][/tr][/table]
Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham will make a combined $10 million this year, but that doesn’t mean that they will be contributing a lot to this season’s bottom line. Willingham should be just fine as a DH, but letting him roam the expanse that is right field at Target Field may be akin to improv theater. Mauer will likely get some “keep me fresh
MIT Sloan analytics: Dean Oliver on WAR.
Spoiler [+]
The sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was held in Boston last weekend, and it was bigger and better than ever. Over 2,200 people were in attendance and the list of panelists included team owners, general managers, coaches, and more. According to conference organizers, 73 teams were represented among MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLS and EPL. Notably, the Baseball Analytics Panel was moderated by Rob Neyer and consisted of Rocco Baldelli, Scott Boras, Bill James, Jeff Luhnow and Mark Shapiro.
This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog
This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog
MIT Sloan analytics: Dean Oliver on WAR.
Spoiler [+]
The sixth annual MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference was held in Boston last weekend, and it was bigger and better than ever. Over 2,200 people were in attendance and the list of panelists included team owners, general managers, coaches, and more. According to conference organizers, 73 teams were represented among MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL, MLS and EPL. Notably, the Baseball Analytics Panel was moderated by Rob Neyer and consisted of Rocco Baldelli, Scott Boras, Bill James, Jeff Luhnow and Mark Shapiro.
This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog
This article won’t be a recap of the conference, but rather part one of a series of conversations I had over the two days. First up is Dean Oliver and in the weeks to come we’ll hear from Baldelli [hitting], John Dewan [defensive metrics], Dan Rosenheck and Adam Jonas [the ramifications of an international draft] and Jon “Boog
Positional power rankings: Third Base.
Spoiler [+]
Perhaps we should rethink the defensive spectrum! Perhaps third base is the hardest position! Last year, third baseman had a .707 OPS — worsted only by catchers… and still shortstops. But the .252/.317/.390 collective batting line at the hot corner was just barely better than the shortstops with their .263/.317/.380 ways. That’s not usual.
Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.
Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?
No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.
No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.
No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.
Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?
No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.
No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.
No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
Positional power rankings: Third Base.
Spoiler [+]
Perhaps we should rethink the defensive spectrum! Perhaps third base is the hardest position! Last year, third baseman had a .707 OPS — worsted only by catchers… and still shortstops. But the .252/.317/.390 collective batting line at the hot corner was just barely better than the shortstops with their .263/.317/.380 ways. That’s not usual.
Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.
Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?
No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.
No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.
No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
Still, the decline of the third base position may just have been temporary. There’s a new infusion of youth on the way, and there’s also a fair chance that some veterans bounce back and make the position look more palatable. And don’t forget a couple key position switches coming our way this year — the inclusion of these new offensive third basemen will boost the offensive numbers, and their bad defense may hurt less than it might seem.
Could this year represent a renaissance at the position?
No. 30 — Oakland Athletics
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Josh Donaldson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.219[/td][td]0.289[/td][td]0.357[/td][td][/td][td]325[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Eric Sogard[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.321[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]150[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Adam Rosales[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.234[/td][td]0.288[/td][td]0.347[/td][td][/td][td]125[/td][td][/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Steve Parker[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.225[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.329[/td][td][/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
When Scott Sizemore went down for the season with an ACL tear, this house of cards came tumbling down. What’s left is a converted catcher (Donaldson), two possible utility players and/or backup infielders (Sogard and Rosales), and a meh prospect (Parker). If they went through the entire year with these players, there’s a distinct possibility that they manage to put up zero wins collectively. Of course, the rumor is that the team is already looking for a trade, but since that trade might be with #28 on this list, it may not lead to a much better result from the position. Maybe one of the corner outfielders / first basemen / designated hitters can fake it at third for a year? That would fit in with some of the other teams on this list.
No. 29 — Houston Astros
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Jimmy Paredes[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.254[/td][td]0.281[/td][td]0.376[/td][td]-3[/td][td]400[/td][td]1[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Brett Wallace[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.258[/td][td]0.322[/td][td]0.403[/td][td][/td][td]200[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Utility[/td][td]Chris Johnson[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.255[/td][td]0.294[/td][td]0.403[/td][td]-6[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
So it’s true that some teams are trying out first basemen at third. So the Astros have given last year’s third baseman (Johnson) a first-base glove, and last year’s first baseman (Wallace) a third-base glove. This way, they are ahead of the curve either way. Most likely, though, it will be a former middle infielder with no patience and not much power — and wheels of steal — that will lead them all. He better strike out a whole lot less or he could end up a worse version of Emilio Bonifacio.
No. 28 — Seattle Mariners
[table][tr][th=""]Role[/th][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Bats[/th][th=""]ZiPs BA[/th][th=""]ZiPs OBP[/th][th=""]ZiPs SLG[/th][th=""]Field[/th][th=""]PA[/th][th=""]WAR[/th][/tr][tr][td]Starter[/td][td]Chone Figgins[/td][td]B[/td][td]0.242[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.305[/td][td]1[/td][td]300[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Reserve[/td][td]Kyle Seager[/td][td]L[/td][td]0.267[/td][td]0.323[/td][td]0.372[/td][td]-1[/td][td]250[/td][td]0.5[/td][/tr][tr][td]Prospect[/td][td]Alex Liddi[/td][td]R[/td][td]0.228[/td][td]0.292[/td][td]0.387[/td][td]-2[/td][td]100[/td][td][/td][/tr][/table]
Can we but “TBD
- Status