2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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2012 Pithcer Profiles: O-R.
Spoiler [+]
Darren O’Day [sup][1][/sup]
[table][tr][td]Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 10/22/1982 | Team: Orioles | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]6 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]62 [/td][td]6.5 [/td][td]1.7 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.03 [/td][td]0.89 [/td][td]3.50 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]16 [/td][td]9.7 [/td][td]2.7 [/td][td]3.8 [/td][td]5.40 [/td][td]1.32 [/td][td]7.59 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The rare side-arming righty that doesn’t get totally crushed by lefties, O’Day could see significant high leverage work with the Orioles if Jim Johnson manages to stick in the rotation. He’s got some sneaky good holds potential. (Mike Axisa)
Eric O’Flaherty [sup][2][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/5/1985 | Team: Braves | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]44 [/td][td]7.4 [/td][td]3.7 [/td][td]0.4 [/td][td]2.45 [/td][td]1.25 [/td][td]3.33 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]73 [/td][td]8.2 [/td][td]2.6 [/td][td]0.2 [/td][td]0.98 [/td][td]1.09 [/td][td]2.54 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: One of the very best holds relievers in 2011, O’Flaherty became just the third pitcher since 1917 to throw at least 70 innings in a season with a sub-1.00 ERA. A 92.3% strand rate helped him to a 0.98 ERA despite being used almost every other game by Fredi Gonzalez, though his 8.19 strikeout rate and 2.57 walk rate with a 55.5% ground-ball rate certainly helped matters as well. The southpaw improved his strikeout and walk rates by nearly one event per nine innings in 2011, in part by getting batters to swing at his pitches out of the zone roughly 4% of the time more often than in the two previous years. O’Flaherty appeared in the fifth most games (78) of any reliever last year (73.2 IP), so the carryover effect is a concern heading into 2012. Don’t expect another sub-1.00 ERA, but he has the tools to be a valuable holds guy for Atlanta again next season. (Mike Axisa)

Quick Opinion: Don’t expect another sub-1.00 ERA again, but Flaherty gets strikeouts, limits walks, and keeps the ball on the ground. That’s the recipe for a successful reliever, though his high 2011 workload is a concern heading into 2012.
Sean O’Sullivan [sup][3][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 9/1/1987 | Team: Royals | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]6 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]83 [/td][td]4.6 [/td][td]3.3 [/td][td]1.6 [/td][td]5.49 [/td][td]1.45 [/td][td]5.53 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]6 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]58 [/td][td]2.9 [/td][td]4.0 [/td][td]1.5 [/td][td]7.25 [/td][td]1.78 [/td][td]6.04 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: It would be one thing if the Royals just had a guy like O’Sullivan stashed at Triple-A “just in case,
 
2012 Pitcher Profiles: S-Z.
Spoiler [+]
CC Sabathia [sup][67][/sup]

[table][tr][td]Debut: 2001 |  BirthDate: 7/21/1980 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]21 [/td][td]7 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]237 [/td][td]7.5 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]3.18 [/td][td]1.19 [/td][td]3.54 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]19 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]237 [/td][td]8.7 [/td][td]2.3 [/td][td]0.6 [/td][td]3.00 [/td][td]1.23 [/td][td]2.88 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Sabathia reversed a three year decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio, as his strikeout rate jumped to its second-highest mark ever and his walk rate fell. That combination, along with an above-average ground ball rate, allowed Sabathia to post the best SIERA of his career. After his swinging strike rate declined in 2010 to its lowest mark since 2003, it rebounded back above 11%, while his first strike rate bounced over 60% again as well. Given his rotund figure and the number of innings he has thrown over the last five years (he has pitched the most number of innings in baseball in that time), it will be interesting how long he lasts before he breaks down. Until there is some sort of sign though, Sabathia will remain one of the top pitchers in baseball. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: Sabathia posted the best SIERA of his career last year and there are no signs of a slow down any time soon. Though his weight and number of innings he has thrown over the last five years should be in the back of your mind, he should remain a top pitcher until further notice.
Takashi Saito [sup][68][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/14/1970 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]54 [/td][td]11.5 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.83 [/td][td]1.07 [/td][td]2.43 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]26 [/td][td]7.8 [/td][td]3.0 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.03 [/td][td]1.12 [/td][td]3.40 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Saito has made one of the most effective transitions from NPB to MLB, recording an ERA under 3.00 each season as a major leaguer. However, at 43 he may not be able to pitch consecutive games effectively any more. (Jack Moore)
Fernando Salas [sup][69][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 5/30/1985 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]8.5 [/td][td]4.4 [/td][td]1.2 [/td][td]3.52 [/td][td]1.40 [/td][td]4.35 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]6 [/td][td]24 [/td][td]75 [/td][td]9.0 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]2.28 [/td][td]0.95 [/td][td]3.16 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The capricious ways of Tony LaRussa landed Salas in the closer’s role for part of 2011, but the same waves that put him in, then took him out in favor of Jason Motte. It’s hard to pin down exactly what the Cardinals’ bullpen is going to look in terms of who will get the primary set up job, but however it shakes out, Salas is a good option for deep league players looking to steal a few strikeouts from a middle reliever. His fly ball rate is somewhat concerning at 52 percent, but he doesn’t give up many home runs and his WHIP and ERA are both well within usable ranges. For shallow leagues, Salas probably doesn’t have much value unless either Motte or Kyle McClellan gets hurt or completely loses the ability to find home plate. (Dan Wade)

Quick Opinion: Salas is a decent option for those looking to grab strikeouts without worrying about picking up holds or saves at the same time. His ERA and WHIP won’t hurt owners much and he’s typically good for at least one strikeout every time he pitches.
Chris Sale [sup][70][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 3/30/1989 | Team: White Sox | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]23 [/td][td]12.3 [/td][td]3.9 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]1.93 [/td][td]1.07 [/td][td]2.74 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]71 [/td][td]10.0 [/td][td]3.4 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]2.79 [/td][td]1.11 [/td][td]3.12 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The 2012 season will mark the third in which Sale has pitched professionally, having made his way to the majors just two months after having been drafted 13th overall by the White Sox in the 2010 draft. In this sense, we have data off of which to make statements about Sale, who’s posted an excellent 71 xFIP- in his first 94.1 career innings. However, the White Sox have announced that they plan to insert the left-handed Sale into the starting rotation for 2012, which creates a broader spectrum of outcomes. On the one hand, Sale could continue to flourish even in an expanded role; on the other, he could be hamstrung by increased exposure to right-handed batters (right-handers made up 55.5% of the batters he’s faced in the majors; average for lefty starts is about 75%). A changeup that Keith Law calls a plus pitch suggests that the former outcome is the more likely. (Carson Cistulli)

Quick Opinion: After about 100 dominant relief innings, Sale enters the rotation in 2012. Provided his changeup keeps right-handers at bay, he should be an above-average starter.
Jeff Samardzija [sup][71][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 1/23/1985 | Team: Cubs | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]19 [/td][td]4.2 [/td][td]9.3 [/td][td]1.9 [/td][td]8.38 [/td][td]2.12 [/td][td]8.25 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]88 [/td][td]8.9 [/td][td]5.1 [/td][td]0.5 [/td][td]2.97 [/td][td]1.30 [/td][td]3.66 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The former Notre Dame star wide receiver once looked like the pearl of deep Chicago Cubs pitching system, but through 2010, he became a mediocre swing man. In 2011, he rebounded strong with a 2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP, but his xFIP (4.27) suggests he had serious home run luck. If we can trust his FIP or SIERA (3.85), the 27-year-old Samardzija should have a fair chance at grabbing a fifth starter spot. Otherwise, it will be long man duty again for the former fifth rounder. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Long man or bottom of the order starter? It depends on if his SIERA (3.85) or his xFIP (4.27) is the real deal. His personal history suggests the xFIP knows what’s up.
Alex Sanabia [sup][72][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 9/8/1988 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP/RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]72 [/td][td]5.8 [/td][td]2.0 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]3.73 [/td][td]1.24 [/td][td]3.65 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]6.5 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]1.6 [/td][td]3.27 [/td][td]1.45 [/td][td]4.75 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: After making a decent debut for the Marlins in 2010, Sanabia only pitched 11.0 innings last season due to elbow issues. He has excellent control, but with a fastball that barely averages 90.0 MPH, he induces swinging strikes at a below-average clip, leading to a mediocre strikeout rate. He has also been an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is dangerous for a pitcher who allows so many base hits. With only 35.2 innings pitched at Triple-A, he is likely to spend some more time down on the farm as he continues his recovery from the elbow problems that plagued him last year. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: Recovering from elbow issues and only possessing mediocre skills to begin with, it will be difficult for Sanabia to get another shot in the Marlins’ rotation. An injury or another poor season from Chris Volstad could accelerate his chance, but he would only be a low-tier NL-Only league flier anyway.
Brian Sanches [sup][73][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 8/8/1978 | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]63 [/td][td]7.6 [/td][td]3.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]2.26 [/td][td]1.10 [/td][td]4.13 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]61 [/td][td]7.7 [/td][td]5.3 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.94 [/td][td]1.43 [/td][td]4.63 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Brian Sanches, a soft-tossing (88 MPH), aged (32) right-hander, has about zero fantasy value heading into 2012. His best trait is a decent strikeout rate of 7.7 in 2011 and a 7.8 value for his career. That decent strikeout rate is completely offset by a bad walk rate (5.2 in 2011 and 4.7 for his career). He is also a fly ball pitcher (47% for his career) which has led to a decent batting average on balls in play (.261). The low career BABIP in turn has kept his strand rate high (79%) and his ERA (3.58) lower than his FIP (4.87) and xFIP (4.77). Even with the low ERA, his value is about as low has it can be for reliever. A sub-1.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio is just not going to be useful for a non-closer. He could see his value improve if he is able to drop the walk rate below three. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Brian walks too many batters to be considered a viable relief pitcher option.
Jonathan Sanchez [sup][74][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 11/19/1982 | Team: Royals | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]193 [/td][td]9.5 [/td][td]4.5 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.07 [/td][td]1.23 [/td][td]4.00 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]7 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]101 [/td][td]9.1 [/td][td]5.9 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]4.26 [/td][td]1.44 [/td][td]4.30 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: 2011 was not a good year for Sanchez. He struggled with his command in virtually every start (he posted a 5.86 walk rate for the year), saw his strikeout-to-walk ratio drop to 1.55, and watched his ERA climb to 4.26. To make matters worse, he only made three starts after the All Star break due to an ankle injury. His emotions on the mound tended to get the better of him and it was no wonder the Giants jumped at the opportunity to trade him to Kansas City during the offseason. How Sanchez will fare in the American League as the Royals number two starter is yet to be seen. His interleague numbers aren’t too bad (career 3.73 ERA in 89.1 innings) and he’s had some success in the limited matchups with AL Central opponents, but the expectancy for a rise in ERA and decrease in strikeouts is certainly there. Kauffman Stadium plays better to hitters than AT&T does, so you might want to steer clear until he can prove himself. (Howard Bender)

Quick Opinion: Sanchez heads to the American League as the number two starter in the Royals rotation. No longer benefiting from things like AT&T Park’s dimensions or facing a pitcher in the batter’s box, Sanchez could struggle early on. If he continues to let his emotions get the better of him, the results could be even worse. Be wary of drafting him in 2012.
Anibal Sanchez [sup][75][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/27/1984 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]7.2 [/td][td]3.2 [/td][td]0.5 [/td][td]3.55 [/td][td]1.34 [/td][td]3.32 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]196 [/td][td]9.3 [/td][td]2.9 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.67 [/td][td]1.28 [/td][td]3.35 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Anibal had another good season in 2011 after a breakout year in 2010. Signs point to him having just of good a season in 2012. The key to his success the last couple of years is his improving control. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has over doubled from 1.5 in 2009 to 3.2 in 2011. This change is fuel by an increase in his strikeout rate from 7.4 to 9.3 and a decrease in his walk rate from 4.8 to 2.9. The increase in K/9 moved him from the 150 strikeouts per season level to the 200 strikeouts per season level. The one knock against him is that he puts in just over six innings per start. If he was able to go seven per start, his strikeout total would go up by 30. With the his newfound control, there is no reason that he can not repeat 2011 again with a sub 3.5 ERA, double digit wins and 200+ strikeouts. He is undervalued come draft day — look at his average draft position to see if you can get him cheap. (jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Sanchez’s new found control has led him to be an undervalued asset on draft day.
Eduardo Sanchez [sup][76][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 2/16/1989 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]10.5 [/td][td]4.8 [/td][td]0.3 [/td][td]1.80 [/td][td]1.00 [/td][td]3.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The Cardinals had a revolving door at closer before Jason Motte stepped in late in the season, and Sanchez held ninth inning honors for a while. A rotator cuff strain ended his season in mid-June and could impact his future outlook if his mid-80′s heat and power slider don’t come all the way back. Sanchez struck out 35 in his 30 innings, but he also walked 16 and has battled control problems for most of his career. Sanchez figures to be one of Motte’s primary setup guys next year, making him a strikeout friendly holds candidate in most leagues. In the best case scenario, he steps into some saves opportunity and manages to keep the job for the rest of the season. In the worst case, he winds up back in Triple-A fighting his walk problems again. (Mike Axisa)

Quick Opinion: Shoulder problems ended Sanchez’s season prematurely in 2011, but he figures to step back into a setup role next year and offer a ton of strikeouts. Walks are a concern though.
Ervin Santana [sup][77][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 12/12/1982 | Team: Angels | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]17 [/td][td]10 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]222 [/td][td]6.8 [/td][td]3.0 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]3.92 [/td][td]1.32 [/td][td]4.28 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]228 [/td][td]7.0 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.38 [/td][td]1.22 [/td][td]4.00 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Thanks to his stretch from 2005 to 2010, you likely view Santana as fragile and flaky. Well, Santana’s performance seems to have flattened out and found its’ mark, and the right-hander just posted his second consecutive 200+ inning season, his third in four years. Santana’s strikeout rate sits in the high-sixes and low-sevens while his walk rate tends to stay around three per nine. Santana added grounders to his arsenal in 2011, which was a nice treat for fantasy owners. Santana may get to face off against lesser fourth starters a little more often now that the Halos have brought C.J. Wilson into the fold, so you can expect around 13 or 14 wins in 2012, assuming Santana gets a full season on the mound. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Santana should win 13 or 14 games while posting an ERA in the mid-to-high-threes. He’s not a fantasy stud, but he’s worthy of a pick late in standard-league drafts.
Johan Santana [sup][78][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2000 |  BirthDate: 3/13/1979 | Team: Mets | Position: P[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]199 [/td][td]6.5 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.98 [/td][td]1.18 [/td][td]3.54 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Old Johan Santana, he ain’t what he used to be. Since 2007, he’s seen his swinging strike rate decline every year, down from excellent to slightly above average, and his strikeout rate has dived with it. He still showed excellent control and somehow still managed to give up fewer home runs per fly ball than the league (9.1% career) … until a shoulder capsule injury felled him for 2011. That’s the same injury that robbed Chien-Ming Wang of much of his velocity and effectiveness, so be vary wary of spending on Santana, especially with the Mets moving the fences in. On the other hand, Santana is falling off a better peak than Wang, he’s now had a full year to recover, and there will be more than a few good spot starts on his schedule. He could still round out the back end of your fantasy rotation, particularly if you are in a deep league or have multiple DL slots. Don’t completely forget about Johan, yet. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Already in a full-on decline that started in about 2007, Santana went down with a shoulder capsule injury that robbed him of 2011 completely. Projecting him — or depending on him — for 2012 is an iffy proposition, but at some point (late) he should be interesting in most drafts.
Sergio Santos [sup][79][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 7/4/1983 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]51 [/td][td]9.8 [/td][td]4.5 [/td][td]0.3 [/td][td]2.96 [/td][td]1.53 [/td][td]3.10 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]63 [/td][td]13.1 [/td][td]4.1 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.55 [/td][td]1.11 [/td][td]2.87 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Santos joins Kenley Jansen in the fascinating realm of bad-hitters-turned-amazing-relievers. Santos was actually a first-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2002, but after flailing away with a .699 OPS after eight minor league campaigns, the White Sox put him on the mound and turned him loose in spring training of 2010. Santos was a bit wild, issuing seven free passes in 10.1 innings, but he also fanned 16, so the club invited him up north. He rewarded the Sox’ faithfulness by not allowing a run for the first month, and hasn’t looked back since, fanning nearly 12 per nine while reeling his WHIP in a bit in 2011. Santos is on his way to Toronto to close in 2012 as part of the White Sox odd ‘rebuilding’ phase, and will likely rack up a bunch of saves for a Jays club that could be sneaky good. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: Santos is going to be a fun closer to watch north of the border. On a team that’s likely to be pretty darn good, Santos should come close to saving 40 games, and likely will whiff well over a hitter an inning. The only thing that may derail him is his command, which tends to be extremely erratic when it’s off at all.
Joe Saunders [sup][80][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 6/16/1981 | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]17 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]203 [/td][td]5.0 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]4.47 [/td][td]1.46 [/td][td]4.57 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]212 [/td][td]4.6 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.2 [/td][td]3.69 [/td][td]1.31 [/td][td]4.78 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The fantasy value of Joe Saunders is very limited. In 2011, he was able to post a 3.69 ERA with 12 wins. His FIP (4.78) and xFIP (4.38) showed that he was a little lucky. This difference can also be seen by his .271 batting average on balls in play which was 18 points lower than his career value of .289. The lower number of hits helped him to a career low strand rate (78%) and a decent WHIP (1.31). Joe will always rely on his defense with a ~4.5 strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is down from his 2008 six per nine level because he lost 1.5 MPH off of his fastball since that season. Since Arizona is a good defensive team in the National League, that helps. Unfortunately, he’s probably the fifth starter now and will get skipped, lowering his ability to eat innings — his best asset. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Saunders has limited upside. His value is maximized on a good defensive team in a home-run suppressing park. At least Arizona has one of those things.
Max Scherzer [sup][81][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 7/27/1984 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]8.5 [/td][td]3.2 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.50 [/td][td]1.25 [/td][td]3.71 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]15 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]8.0 [/td][td]2.6 [/td][td]1.3 [/td][td]4.43 [/td][td]1.35 [/td][td]4.14 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: While many still view Max Scherzer as a young, inexperienced starter, he turned 27 in 2011 and has over 600 innings to his name; it’s pretty likely that we know who he is at this point. Despite an ERA last year of 4.43 — nearly a full run worse per nine innings than 2010 — he was pretty much the same pitcher. He struck out eight per nine last year — the lowest rate of his career — but he compensated by dropping his walk rate. He gave up 29 home runs last year — sixth most among qualified starters — but this can be traced to a very high home run per fly ball rate that we should not expect to continue. He’s lost over a tick on his fastball since his debut in 2008, but his stuff is still very good, and it’s natural for pitchers to lose velocity after their early twenties. Next year Scherzer is a safe bet for about 190 innings with an ERA around 3.8 and a high rate of strikeouts. (Josh Weinstock)

Quick Opinion: Despite being portrayed as a volatile starter, Max Scherzer’s peripherals have been pretty consistent. We can confidently expect a performance a little better than the average of his 2010 and 2011 seasons.
Daniel Schlereth [sup][82][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 5/9/1986 | Team: Tigers | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]18 [/td][td]9.2 [/td][td]4.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]2.89 [/td][td]1.61 [/td][td]4.20 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]49 [/td][td]8.1 [/td][td]5.7 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]3.49 [/td][td]1.37 [/td][td]5.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Schlereth wasn’t just a throw-in in the deal that brought the Tigers Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer, but two years later, that’s about where his value is. Locked behind Jose Valverde, Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit, and potentially others, he isn’t grabbing saves or even many holds. If he gets his walks under control, maybe he becomes a decent middle relief option for people in need of cheap strikeouts, but he isn’t one right now. (Dan Wade)
Chris Schwinden [sup][83][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 9/22/1986 | Team: Mets | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]21 [/td][td]7.3 [/td][td]2.6 [/td][td]0.4 [/td][td]4.71 [/td][td]1.38 [/td][td]3.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: “Family Night
 
2012 Pitcher Profiles: S-Z.
Spoiler [+]
CC Sabathia [sup][67][/sup]

[table][tr][td]Debut: 2001 |  BirthDate: 7/21/1980 | Team: Yankees | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]21 [/td][td]7 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]237 [/td][td]7.5 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]3.18 [/td][td]1.19 [/td][td]3.54 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]19 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]237 [/td][td]8.7 [/td][td]2.3 [/td][td]0.6 [/td][td]3.00 [/td][td]1.23 [/td][td]2.88 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Sabathia reversed a three year decline in his strikeout-to-walk ratio, as his strikeout rate jumped to its second-highest mark ever and his walk rate fell. That combination, along with an above-average ground ball rate, allowed Sabathia to post the best SIERA of his career. After his swinging strike rate declined in 2010 to its lowest mark since 2003, it rebounded back above 11%, while his first strike rate bounced over 60% again as well. Given his rotund figure and the number of innings he has thrown over the last five years (he has pitched the most number of innings in baseball in that time), it will be interesting how long he lasts before he breaks down. Until there is some sort of sign though, Sabathia will remain one of the top pitchers in baseball. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: Sabathia posted the best SIERA of his career last year and there are no signs of a slow down any time soon. Though his weight and number of innings he has thrown over the last five years should be in the back of your mind, he should remain a top pitcher until further notice.
Takashi Saito [sup][68][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/14/1970 | Team: Diamondbacks | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]54 [/td][td]11.5 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.83 [/td][td]1.07 [/td][td]2.43 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]26 [/td][td]7.8 [/td][td]3.0 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.03 [/td][td]1.12 [/td][td]3.40 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Saito has made one of the most effective transitions from NPB to MLB, recording an ERA under 3.00 each season as a major leaguer. However, at 43 he may not be able to pitch consecutive games effectively any more. (Jack Moore)
Fernando Salas [sup][69][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 5/30/1985 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]8.5 [/td][td]4.4 [/td][td]1.2 [/td][td]3.52 [/td][td]1.40 [/td][td]4.35 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]6 [/td][td]24 [/td][td]75 [/td][td]9.0 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]2.28 [/td][td]0.95 [/td][td]3.16 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The capricious ways of Tony LaRussa landed Salas in the closer’s role for part of 2011, but the same waves that put him in, then took him out in favor of Jason Motte. It’s hard to pin down exactly what the Cardinals’ bullpen is going to look in terms of who will get the primary set up job, but however it shakes out, Salas is a good option for deep league players looking to steal a few strikeouts from a middle reliever. His fly ball rate is somewhat concerning at 52 percent, but he doesn’t give up many home runs and his WHIP and ERA are both well within usable ranges. For shallow leagues, Salas probably doesn’t have much value unless either Motte or Kyle McClellan gets hurt or completely loses the ability to find home plate. (Dan Wade)

Quick Opinion: Salas is a decent option for those looking to grab strikeouts without worrying about picking up holds or saves at the same time. His ERA and WHIP won’t hurt owners much and he’s typically good for at least one strikeout every time he pitches.
Chris Sale [sup][70][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 3/30/1989 | Team: White Sox | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]23 [/td][td]12.3 [/td][td]3.9 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]1.93 [/td][td]1.07 [/td][td]2.74 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]71 [/td][td]10.0 [/td][td]3.4 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]2.79 [/td][td]1.11 [/td][td]3.12 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The 2012 season will mark the third in which Sale has pitched professionally, having made his way to the majors just two months after having been drafted 13th overall by the White Sox in the 2010 draft. In this sense, we have data off of which to make statements about Sale, who’s posted an excellent 71 xFIP- in his first 94.1 career innings. However, the White Sox have announced that they plan to insert the left-handed Sale into the starting rotation for 2012, which creates a broader spectrum of outcomes. On the one hand, Sale could continue to flourish even in an expanded role; on the other, he could be hamstrung by increased exposure to right-handed batters (right-handers made up 55.5% of the batters he’s faced in the majors; average for lefty starts is about 75%). A changeup that Keith Law calls a plus pitch suggests that the former outcome is the more likely. (Carson Cistulli)

Quick Opinion: After about 100 dominant relief innings, Sale enters the rotation in 2012. Provided his changeup keeps right-handers at bay, he should be an above-average starter.
Jeff Samardzija [sup][71][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 1/23/1985 | Team: Cubs | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]19 [/td][td]4.2 [/td][td]9.3 [/td][td]1.9 [/td][td]8.38 [/td][td]2.12 [/td][td]8.25 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]88 [/td][td]8.9 [/td][td]5.1 [/td][td]0.5 [/td][td]2.97 [/td][td]1.30 [/td][td]3.66 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The former Notre Dame star wide receiver once looked like the pearl of deep Chicago Cubs pitching system, but through 2010, he became a mediocre swing man. In 2011, he rebounded strong with a 2.97 ERA and 3.66 FIP, but his xFIP (4.27) suggests he had serious home run luck. If we can trust his FIP or SIERA (3.85), the 27-year-old Samardzija should have a fair chance at grabbing a fifth starter spot. Otherwise, it will be long man duty again for the former fifth rounder. (Bradley Woodrum)

Quick Opinion: Long man or bottom of the order starter? It depends on if his SIERA (3.85) or his xFIP (4.27) is the real deal. His personal history suggests the xFIP knows what’s up.
Alex Sanabia [sup][72][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 9/8/1988 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP/RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]72 [/td][td]5.8 [/td][td]2.0 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]3.73 [/td][td]1.24 [/td][td]3.65 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]6.5 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]1.6 [/td][td]3.27 [/td][td]1.45 [/td][td]4.75 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: After making a decent debut for the Marlins in 2010, Sanabia only pitched 11.0 innings last season due to elbow issues. He has excellent control, but with a fastball that barely averages 90.0 MPH, he induces swinging strikes at a below-average clip, leading to a mediocre strikeout rate. He has also been an extreme fly ball pitcher, which is dangerous for a pitcher who allows so many base hits. With only 35.2 innings pitched at Triple-A, he is likely to spend some more time down on the farm as he continues his recovery from the elbow problems that plagued him last year. (Mike Podhorzer)

Quick Opinion: Recovering from elbow issues and only possessing mediocre skills to begin with, it will be difficult for Sanabia to get another shot in the Marlins’ rotation. An injury or another poor season from Chris Volstad could accelerate his chance, but he would only be a low-tier NL-Only league flier anyway.
Brian Sanches [sup][73][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 8/8/1978 | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]63 [/td][td]7.6 [/td][td]3.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]2.26 [/td][td]1.10 [/td][td]4.13 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]61 [/td][td]7.7 [/td][td]5.3 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.94 [/td][td]1.43 [/td][td]4.63 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Brian Sanches, a soft-tossing (88 MPH), aged (32) right-hander, has about zero fantasy value heading into 2012. His best trait is a decent strikeout rate of 7.7 in 2011 and a 7.8 value for his career. That decent strikeout rate is completely offset by a bad walk rate (5.2 in 2011 and 4.7 for his career). He is also a fly ball pitcher (47% for his career) which has led to a decent batting average on balls in play (.261). The low career BABIP in turn has kept his strand rate high (79%) and his ERA (3.58) lower than his FIP (4.87) and xFIP (4.77). Even with the low ERA, his value is about as low has it can be for reliever. A sub-1.7 strikeout-to-walk ratio is just not going to be useful for a non-closer. He could see his value improve if he is able to drop the walk rate below three. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Brian walks too many batters to be considered a viable relief pitcher option.
Jonathan Sanchez [sup][74][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 11/19/1982 | Team: Royals | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]193 [/td][td]9.5 [/td][td]4.5 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.07 [/td][td]1.23 [/td][td]4.00 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]7 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]101 [/td][td]9.1 [/td][td]5.9 [/td][td]0.8 [/td][td]4.26 [/td][td]1.44 [/td][td]4.30 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: 2011 was not a good year for Sanchez. He struggled with his command in virtually every start (he posted a 5.86 walk rate for the year), saw his strikeout-to-walk ratio drop to 1.55, and watched his ERA climb to 4.26. To make matters worse, he only made three starts after the All Star break due to an ankle injury. His emotions on the mound tended to get the better of him and it was no wonder the Giants jumped at the opportunity to trade him to Kansas City during the offseason. How Sanchez will fare in the American League as the Royals number two starter is yet to be seen. His interleague numbers aren’t too bad (career 3.73 ERA in 89.1 innings) and he’s had some success in the limited matchups with AL Central opponents, but the expectancy for a rise in ERA and decrease in strikeouts is certainly there. Kauffman Stadium plays better to hitters than AT&T does, so you might want to steer clear until he can prove himself. (Howard Bender)

Quick Opinion: Sanchez heads to the American League as the number two starter in the Royals rotation. No longer benefiting from things like AT&T Park’s dimensions or facing a pitcher in the batter’s box, Sanchez could struggle early on. If he continues to let his emotions get the better of him, the results could be even worse. Be wary of drafting him in 2012.
Anibal Sanchez [sup][75][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2006 |  BirthDate: 2/27/1984 | Team: Marlins | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]7.2 [/td][td]3.2 [/td][td]0.5 [/td][td]3.55 [/td][td]1.34 [/td][td]3.32 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]8 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]196 [/td][td]9.3 [/td][td]2.9 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.67 [/td][td]1.28 [/td][td]3.35 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Anibal had another good season in 2011 after a breakout year in 2010. Signs point to him having just of good a season in 2012. The key to his success the last couple of years is his improving control. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has over doubled from 1.5 in 2009 to 3.2 in 2011. This change is fuel by an increase in his strikeout rate from 7.4 to 9.3 and a decrease in his walk rate from 4.8 to 2.9. The increase in K/9 moved him from the 150 strikeouts per season level to the 200 strikeouts per season level. The one knock against him is that he puts in just over six innings per start. If he was able to go seven per start, his strikeout total would go up by 30. With the his newfound control, there is no reason that he can not repeat 2011 again with a sub 3.5 ERA, double digit wins and 200+ strikeouts. He is undervalued come draft day — look at his average draft position to see if you can get him cheap. (jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Sanchez’s new found control has led him to be an undervalued asset on draft day.
Eduardo Sanchez [sup][76][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 2/16/1989 | Team: Cardinals | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]3 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]10.5 [/td][td]4.8 [/td][td]0.3 [/td][td]1.80 [/td][td]1.00 [/td][td]3.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The Cardinals had a revolving door at closer before Jason Motte stepped in late in the season, and Sanchez held ninth inning honors for a while. A rotator cuff strain ended his season in mid-June and could impact his future outlook if his mid-80′s heat and power slider don’t come all the way back. Sanchez struck out 35 in his 30 innings, but he also walked 16 and has battled control problems for most of his career. Sanchez figures to be one of Motte’s primary setup guys next year, making him a strikeout friendly holds candidate in most leagues. In the best case scenario, he steps into some saves opportunity and manages to keep the job for the rest of the season. In the worst case, he winds up back in Triple-A fighting his walk problems again. (Mike Axisa)

Quick Opinion: Shoulder problems ended Sanchez’s season prematurely in 2011, but he figures to step back into a setup role next year and offer a ton of strikeouts. Walks are a concern though.
Ervin Santana [sup][77][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 12/12/1982 | Team: Angels | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]17 [/td][td]10 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]222 [/td][td]6.8 [/td][td]3.0 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]3.92 [/td][td]1.32 [/td][td]4.28 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]228 [/td][td]7.0 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]3.38 [/td][td]1.22 [/td][td]4.00 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Thanks to his stretch from 2005 to 2010, you likely view Santana as fragile and flaky. Well, Santana’s performance seems to have flattened out and found its’ mark, and the right-hander just posted his second consecutive 200+ inning season, his third in four years. Santana’s strikeout rate sits in the high-sixes and low-sevens while his walk rate tends to stay around three per nine. Santana added grounders to his arsenal in 2011, which was a nice treat for fantasy owners. Santana may get to face off against lesser fourth starters a little more often now that the Halos have brought C.J. Wilson into the fold, so you can expect around 13 or 14 wins in 2012, assuming Santana gets a full season on the mound. (Zach Sanders)

Quick Opinion: Santana should win 13 or 14 games while posting an ERA in the mid-to-high-threes. He’s not a fantasy stud, but he’s worthy of a pick late in standard-league drafts.
Johan Santana [sup][78][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2000 |  BirthDate: 3/13/1979 | Team: Mets | Position: P[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]199 [/td][td]6.5 [/td][td]2.5 [/td][td]0.7 [/td][td]2.98 [/td][td]1.18 [/td][td]3.54 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Old Johan Santana, he ain’t what he used to be. Since 2007, he’s seen his swinging strike rate decline every year, down from excellent to slightly above average, and his strikeout rate has dived with it. He still showed excellent control and somehow still managed to give up fewer home runs per fly ball than the league (9.1% career) … until a shoulder capsule injury felled him for 2011. That’s the same injury that robbed Chien-Ming Wang of much of his velocity and effectiveness, so be vary wary of spending on Santana, especially with the Mets moving the fences in. On the other hand, Santana is falling off a better peak than Wang, he’s now had a full year to recover, and there will be more than a few good spot starts on his schedule. He could still round out the back end of your fantasy rotation, particularly if you are in a deep league or have multiple DL slots. Don’t completely forget about Johan, yet. (Eno Sarris)

Quick Opinion: Already in a full-on decline that started in about 2007, Santana went down with a shoulder capsule injury that robbed him of 2011 completely. Projecting him — or depending on him — for 2012 is an iffy proposition, but at some point (late) he should be interesting in most drafts.
Sergio Santos [sup][79][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2010 |  BirthDate: 7/4/1983 | Team: Blue Jays | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]51 [/td][td]9.8 [/td][td]4.5 [/td][td]0.3 [/td][td]2.96 [/td][td]1.53 [/td][td]3.10 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]4 [/td][td]5 [/td][td]30 [/td][td]63 [/td][td]13.1 [/td][td]4.1 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.55 [/td][td]1.11 [/td][td]2.87 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Santos joins Kenley Jansen in the fascinating realm of bad-hitters-turned-amazing-relievers. Santos was actually a first-round pick of the Diamondbacks in 2002, but after flailing away with a .699 OPS after eight minor league campaigns, the White Sox put him on the mound and turned him loose in spring training of 2010. Santos was a bit wild, issuing seven free passes in 10.1 innings, but he also fanned 16, so the club invited him up north. He rewarded the Sox’ faithfulness by not allowing a run for the first month, and hasn’t looked back since, fanning nearly 12 per nine while reeling his WHIP in a bit in 2011. Santos is on his way to Toronto to close in 2012 as part of the White Sox odd ‘rebuilding’ phase, and will likely rack up a bunch of saves for a Jays club that could be sneaky good. (Brandon Warne)

Quick Opinion: Santos is going to be a fun closer to watch north of the border. On a team that’s likely to be pretty darn good, Santos should come close to saving 40 games, and likely will whiff well over a hitter an inning. The only thing that may derail him is his command, which tends to be extremely erratic when it’s off at all.
Joe Saunders [sup][80][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2005 |  BirthDate: 6/16/1981 | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]17 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]203 [/td][td]5.0 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]4.47 [/td][td]1.46 [/td][td]4.57 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]13 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]212 [/td][td]4.6 [/td][td]2.8 [/td][td]1.2 [/td][td]3.69 [/td][td]1.31 [/td][td]4.78 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: The fantasy value of Joe Saunders is very limited. In 2011, he was able to post a 3.69 ERA with 12 wins. His FIP (4.78) and xFIP (4.38) showed that he was a little lucky. This difference can also be seen by his .271 batting average on balls in play which was 18 points lower than his career value of .289. The lower number of hits helped him to a career low strand rate (78%) and a decent WHIP (1.31). Joe will always rely on his defense with a ~4.5 strikeout rate. His strikeout rate is down from his 2008 six per nine level because he lost 1.5 MPH off of his fastball since that season. Since Arizona is a good defensive team in the National League, that helps. Unfortunately, he’s probably the fifth starter now and will get skipped, lowering his ability to eat innings — his best asset. (Jeff Zimmerman)

Quick Opinion: Saunders has limited upside. His value is maximized on a good defensive team in a home-run suppressing park. At least Arizona has one of those things.
Max Scherzer [sup][81][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2008 |  BirthDate: 7/27/1984 | Team: Tigers | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]12 [/td][td]11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]8.5 [/td][td]3.2 [/td][td]0.9 [/td][td]3.50 [/td][td]1.25 [/td][td]3.71 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]15 [/td][td]9 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]195 [/td][td]8.0 [/td][td]2.6 [/td][td]1.3 [/td][td]4.43 [/td][td]1.35 [/td][td]4.14 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: While many still view Max Scherzer as a young, inexperienced starter, he turned 27 in 2011 and has over 600 innings to his name; it’s pretty likely that we know who he is at this point. Despite an ERA last year of 4.43 — nearly a full run worse per nine innings than 2010 — he was pretty much the same pitcher. He struck out eight per nine last year — the lowest rate of his career — but he compensated by dropping his walk rate. He gave up 29 home runs last year — sixth most among qualified starters — but this can be traced to a very high home run per fly ball rate that we should not expect to continue. He’s lost over a tick on his fastball since his debut in 2008, but his stuff is still very good, and it’s natural for pitchers to lose velocity after their early twenties. Next year Scherzer is a safe bet for about 190 innings with an ERA around 3.8 and a high rate of strikeouts. (Josh Weinstock)

Quick Opinion: Despite being portrayed as a volatile starter, Max Scherzer’s peripherals have been pretty consistent. We can confidently expect a performance a little better than the average of his 2010 and 2011 seasons.
Daniel Schlereth [sup][82][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2009 |  BirthDate: 5/9/1986 | Team: Tigers | Position: RP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’10 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]1 [/td][td]18 [/td][td]9.2 [/td][td]4.8 [/td][td]1.0 [/td][td]2.89 [/td][td]1.61 [/td][td]4.20 [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]49 [/td][td]8.1 [/td][td]5.7 [/td][td]1.1 [/td][td]3.49 [/td][td]1.37 [/td][td]5.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: Schlereth wasn’t just a throw-in in the deal that brought the Tigers Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer, but two years later, that’s about where his value is. Locked behind Jose Valverde, Octavio Dotel, Joaquin Benoit, and potentially others, he isn’t grabbing saves or even many holds. If he gets his walks under control, maybe he becomes a decent middle relief option for people in need of cheap strikeouts, but he isn’t one right now. (Dan Wade)
Chris Schwinden [sup][83][/sup]


[table][tr][td]Debut: 2011 |  BirthDate: 9/22/1986 | Team: Mets | Position: SP[/td][/tr][tr][td]Yr [/td][td]W [/td][td]L [/td][td]SV [/td][td]IP [/td][td]K/9 [/td][td]BB/9 [/td][td]HR/9 [/td][td]ERA [/td][td]WHIP [/td][td]FIP [/td][/tr][tr][td]’11 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]2 [/td][td]0 [/td][td]21 [/td][td]7.3 [/td][td]2.6 [/td][td]0.4 [/td][td]4.71 [/td][td]1.38 [/td][td]3.03 [/td][/tr][/table]


Profile: “Family Night
 
It's to make up for that awfully high starting rotation ranking
laugh.gif
.

But, that was well warranted.  I think you'll enjoy this, Kev.

Examining the Indians rotation.

Spoiler [+]
Last year, the Cleveland Indians starting pitchers gave up 540 runs – the fourth worst total in Major League Baseball. Their only notable rotation addition over the winter was Derek Lowe [sup][1][/sup], who the Braves were desperate to get rid of after he posted a 5.05 ERA last year. And yet, despite retaining most members of a group that were part of the team’s failure last year, advanced projection systems suggest that the Indians could have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2012.

The fact that Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections like Justin Masterson [sup][2][/sup] (204 IP, 3.31 FIP) shouldn’t be much of a surprise, given that Masterson had a breakthrough season last year and doesn’t turn 27 for another 10 days. Masterson’s improvement of his command while maintaining his groundball and strikeout abilities make him one of the game’s best starting pitchers. For reference, Masterson’s projection ranks him as essentially the equal of CC Sabathia [sup][3][/sup] (3.30 FIP) and slightly ahead of Dan Haren [sup][4][/sup] (3.36 FIP), so while he may not be widely recognized as a legitimate front-end starter, ZIPS expects Masterson to remain one of the elite starters in the American League.

However, Masterson was terrific in 2011 and the Indians rotation still struggled, so the expected improvement has to come from the #2-#5 spots in the rotation. And, this is where ZIPS believes that Cleveland will see drastic improvement.

Ubaldo Jimenez [sup][5][/sup] wasn’t particularly great for the Indians after coming over in a mid-season trade that cost the team two of their top pitching prospects, but his strong track record in prior years and the fact that his rise in ERA was based mostly on a drop in strand rate – something that has been shown to have little predictive power – combine to create a projection for Jimenez (197 IP, 3.26 FIP) that is actually even better than Masterson’s. In fact, among American League starters, only Justin Verlander [sup][6][/sup], Felix Hernandez [sup][7][/sup], and Jered Weaver [sup][8][/sup] are projected to post a better mark than Jimenez. Like Masterson, his combination of strikeouts and groundballs give him the chance to be a dominant front line starter, and while his reputation took a hit last year, he’s still just 28-years-old and has a long history of premium performances. Few teams in baseball have as strong a 1-2 punch as the Indians have in Masterson and Jimenez.

There’s a significant drop-off between those two and the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, but the three starters penciled in for the back of the rotation are all still projected to be useful starting pitchers. While Derek Lowe had his problems in Atlanta and didn’t come close to justifying the contract he was given back in 2009, his durability is still an asset, and his underlying performances have been better than the results would indicate. ZIPS projects a 4.01 FIP for Lowe, putting him in the company of guys like Trevor Cahill [sup][9][/sup], John Danks [sup][10][/sup], and Derek Holland [sup][11][/sup]. Even if he doesn’t perform quite that well – Lowe has generally posted ERAs a bit higher than his FIPs throughout his career – he should still provide value as an innings-eater who can keep the Indians in most games.

Behind Lowe, the final two spots are expected to be filled by some combination of Kevin Slowey [sup][12][/sup], Josh Tomlin [sup][13][/sup], and Zach McAlister. The projections for all three peg them as useful back end starters, and give the team some needed depth that can help bridge any gaps created by injuries. While many AL contenders have serious weaknesses in the #5 spot, ZIPS believes that the Indians have multiple good options for the final rotation spot, and that buffer can provide an alternative if a member of the opening day rotation ends up struggling.

While the Tigers are still the clear favorites for the AL Central title, the difference in expected performance from each team’s starters is not where their advantage lies. Below are the projected lines for each team’s top six starters, with the results weighted by expected innings pitched for each group:

CLE (Masterson, Jimenez, Lowe, Slowey, Tomlin, McAlister): 2.70 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.82 FIP

DET (Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, Turner, Oliver): 2.81 BB/9, 6.75 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.85 FIP

The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar. While Detroit’s starters get more recognition and are coming off better 2011 seasons, ZIPS believes that Cleveland’s depth advantage will help the battle of rotations end in something akin to a draw.

The Tigers offense is still the clear cream of the crop in the division, and Cleveland may not have the bats to stay in contention all year long, but their rotation is stronger than they’re given credit for. If the Indians can find a way to score enough runs, their starting pitchers have the ability to help them contend for a playoff spot.
 
It's to make up for that awfully high starting rotation ranking
laugh.gif
.

But, that was well warranted.  I think you'll enjoy this, Kev.

Examining the Indians rotation.

Spoiler [+]
Last year, the Cleveland Indians starting pitchers gave up 540 runs – the fourth worst total in Major League Baseball. Their only notable rotation addition over the winter was Derek Lowe [sup][1][/sup], who the Braves were desperate to get rid of after he posted a 5.05 ERA last year. And yet, despite retaining most members of a group that were part of the team’s failure last year, advanced projection systems suggest that the Indians could have one of the best rotations in baseball in 2012.

The fact that Dan Szymborski’s ZIPS projections like Justin Masterson [sup][2][/sup] (204 IP, 3.31 FIP) shouldn’t be much of a surprise, given that Masterson had a breakthrough season last year and doesn’t turn 27 for another 10 days. Masterson’s improvement of his command while maintaining his groundball and strikeout abilities make him one of the game’s best starting pitchers. For reference, Masterson’s projection ranks him as essentially the equal of CC Sabathia [sup][3][/sup] (3.30 FIP) and slightly ahead of Dan Haren [sup][4][/sup] (3.36 FIP), so while he may not be widely recognized as a legitimate front-end starter, ZIPS expects Masterson to remain one of the elite starters in the American League.

However, Masterson was terrific in 2011 and the Indians rotation still struggled, so the expected improvement has to come from the #2-#5 spots in the rotation. And, this is where ZIPS believes that Cleveland will see drastic improvement.

Ubaldo Jimenez [sup][5][/sup] wasn’t particularly great for the Indians after coming over in a mid-season trade that cost the team two of their top pitching prospects, but his strong track record in prior years and the fact that his rise in ERA was based mostly on a drop in strand rate – something that has been shown to have little predictive power – combine to create a projection for Jimenez (197 IP, 3.26 FIP) that is actually even better than Masterson’s. In fact, among American League starters, only Justin Verlander [sup][6][/sup], Felix Hernandez [sup][7][/sup], and Jered Weaver [sup][8][/sup] are projected to post a better mark than Jimenez. Like Masterson, his combination of strikeouts and groundballs give him the chance to be a dominant front line starter, and while his reputation took a hit last year, he’s still just 28-years-old and has a long history of premium performances. Few teams in baseball have as strong a 1-2 punch as the Indians have in Masterson and Jimenez.

There’s a significant drop-off between those two and the rest of Cleveland’s rotation, but the three starters penciled in for the back of the rotation are all still projected to be useful starting pitchers. While Derek Lowe had his problems in Atlanta and didn’t come close to justifying the contract he was given back in 2009, his durability is still an asset, and his underlying performances have been better than the results would indicate. ZIPS projects a 4.01 FIP for Lowe, putting him in the company of guys like Trevor Cahill [sup][9][/sup], John Danks [sup][10][/sup], and Derek Holland [sup][11][/sup]. Even if he doesn’t perform quite that well – Lowe has generally posted ERAs a bit higher than his FIPs throughout his career – he should still provide value as an innings-eater who can keep the Indians in most games.

Behind Lowe, the final two spots are expected to be filled by some combination of Kevin Slowey [sup][12][/sup], Josh Tomlin [sup][13][/sup], and Zach McAlister. The projections for all three peg them as useful back end starters, and give the team some needed depth that can help bridge any gaps created by injuries. While many AL contenders have serious weaknesses in the #5 spot, ZIPS believes that the Indians have multiple good options for the final rotation spot, and that buffer can provide an alternative if a member of the opening day rotation ends up struggling.

While the Tigers are still the clear favorites for the AL Central title, the difference in expected performance from each team’s starters is not where their advantage lies. Below are the projected lines for each team’s top six starters, with the results weighted by expected innings pitched for each group:

CLE (Masterson, Jimenez, Lowe, Slowey, Tomlin, McAlister): 2.70 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, 0.91 HR/9, 3.82 FIP

DET (Verlander, Fister, Scherzer, Porcello, Turner, Oliver): 2.81 BB/9, 6.75 K/9, 0.96 HR/9, 3.85 FIP

The Tigers get a few more strikeouts, but the Indians starters are expected to issue fewer walks and give up fewer home runs, and the overall output for both groups is expected to be quite similar. While Detroit’s starters get more recognition and are coming off better 2011 seasons, ZIPS believes that Cleveland’s depth advantage will help the battle of rotations end in something akin to a draw.

The Tigers offense is still the clear cream of the crop in the division, and Cleveland may not have the bats to stay in contention all year long, but their rotation is stronger than they’re given credit for. If the Indians can find a way to score enough runs, their starting pitchers have the ability to help them contend for a playoff spot.
 
Cespedes shows bat speed and patience.

Spoiler [+]
My first look at Yoenis Cespedes of the Oakland Athletics came in Sunday's game against the Kansas City Royals, although he was the DH so I have yet to witness the cannon of legend. You can see the upside pretty clearly just at the plate, but I could also see why other teams were skeptical about his ability to come right to the majors.

Cespedes is a big kid -- if you can call a player listed at 26 years old a kid -- with intense bat speed that he uses to try to pull every pitch he sees. He really collapses his back side when he swings and rolls over his front foot, so while there is indisputable plus power there, he's going to swing-and-miss a lot. But the pleasant surprise of the day was how patient Cespedes was, laying off a number of pitches just outside the zone that I expected him to chase.

He didn't face any tough MLB-caliber right-handers, but the fact that he has a somewhat advanced approach should give A's fans hope that, in addition to the power, he can draw some walks to make up for the low overall contact rate.
[h3]Game notes[/h3]
• Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery had the worst outing I've ever seen from him, in terms of stuff as well as results, sitting 90-91 mph -- occasionally touching 92 -- lacking feel for his changeup and struggling to command his curveball. He was behind hitters when he wasn't watching them crush his fastball, and he barely used his changeup, ordinarily an above-average-to-plus pitch. The main difference I noticed with Montgomery Monday versus previous looks was that in this game, he was landing on the ball of his front foot first then getting his heel down, instead of landing squarely with the entire front foot, giving him more stability as he accelerated his arm. I'm also concerned any time I see a pitcher who's had arm problems -- Montgomery missed time in 2010 with minor elbow trouble -- show up without all his velocity, but in this case the landing problem might explain it all.

• I caught the A's last week, when Jarrod Parker started, and while it wasn't his best outing in terms of command the stuff was mostly there. Parker hit 94 mph with his four-seamer and was 88-91 with his two-seamer but was guiding everything he threw, even his changeup (several were plus, but not all) and slider, which was much better at 81-84 when he just let it go instead of trying too hard to locate it. One of those sliders froze Matt Kemp by hitting the outside corner, so it's not as if Parker can't throw the pitch for strikes without babying it. A scout told me prior to that game that he'd seen Parker's previous outing and thought Arizona would regret giving him up for Trevor Cahill, so one slightly off day isn't a real concern.

• Also for Oakland, left-hander Sean Doolittle is attempting a comeback as a pitcher after his career as a position player stalled out because of knee and wrist injuries; his last at bat was May 8, 2009, after which he had two significant surgeries that more or less ended his chances to play the field. Doolittle hit the mid-90s in the fall and has hit 93 this spring but was 89-91 last Thursday with a slow, soft curveball at 72-75. His arm slot is below three-quarters and there's some slinging action, so he should be tough for left-handed hitters to pick up if he can sharpen the breaking ball. Doolittle's a great story if he makes it, but it looks like there's a ways to go.

• Michael Choice had a couple at-bats in the same game, punching out in both of them by chasing all manner of off-speed stuff below the zone and/or away from him. He was closing his stance very late and obviously wasn't recognizing pitches that day. I've always had concerns about his capacity to swing-and-miss, so his inability to lay off those unhittable pitches just added to those doubts.

Timelines for contention.

Spoiler [+]
Preseason predictions tend to focus more on the likely contenders than the likely also-rans, as no one gets that worked up over a team that's going to win 70 games, plus or minus five. Even the fans of those teams are usually more concerned about their long-term outlooks, so I've looked at five such clubs to assess how long their fans might have to wait before the teams could reasonably expect to contend.

I've looked at future payroll commitments, major league assets, farm systems, ownership status and front office strategies. I also considered the competition in each team's division to assess their chances of earning a playoff spot. So, for example, the New York Mets face a higher standard than the Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres because the National League East is so tough. (Exclusion of any club isn't a comment on how soon they might become competitive.)
[h3]Kansas City Royals[/h3]


kc.gif




The Royals aren't that far off, but exactly how far is more a function of their pitching than all other variables combined. The offense has improved markedly over the past two years, with Eric Hosmer prepared to explode on the league this year, and the Royals have gradually improved their defense at most positions, looking weak only at third base and possibly left field. Their only significant contract commitments beyond 2013 are to Billy Butler (through 2014) and Salvador Perez (2016, plus club options), so they have the flexibility to add a major arm or to continue to lock up critical young players to long-term deals.

But their lack of pitching at the major-league level is exacerbated by difficulty getting their first wave of top pitching prospects -- led by Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb -- established in the majors, with Duffy the most successful so far by default.

General manager Dayton Moore has done a solid job of poaching undervalued arms from other organizations, but you can't build a contending staff that way. So the Royals will either need to have several of those young arms -- a group that could also include Aaron Crow, Chris Dwyer and Jake Odorizzi -- step forward in the next two seasons, or they'll have to trade some of their prospect depth for a starter, just as Milwaukee did to acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals a year ago. The Royals have the players to do it, but it might mean giving up a prized prospect such as Wil Myers or Cheslor Cuthbert in the service of pushing the team back over .500.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2014
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]


chc.gif


It helps that the NL Central is one of the weaker divisions, but the Cubs' rebuilding has barely broken ground at this point -- the new front office has barely had a chance to clear the land. Their moves this winter, other than the trade of reliever Andrew Cashner for first base prospect Anthony Rizzo and pitcher Zack Cates, were largely about moving money around and keeping the 2012 product respectable without making dangerous long-term commitments such as the one wandering aimlessly around left field these days. (And it should be quite respectable, maybe even a little better if their gambles on starting pitchers whose peripheral stats were better than their ERAs work out.)

Chicago's farm system is thin up top but has a lot of high-risk, high-upside players in its lowest levels; even their extended spring training club will be fun to watch this year. But the Cubs' best chance to engineer a turnaround will probably come from trades, starting with Matt Garza but perhaps extending to players such as Geovany Soto or Carlos Marmol if they can re-establish their value with solid 2012 performances; they bought low on Ian Stewart and Chris Volstad and could end up selling high if either player fulfills his former first-round promise in the next two years.

By the 2013-14 offseason, they'll have a significant amount of cash to spend but only a handful of less expensive players in significant roles, so cashing in Garza for the maximum return looks like the critical step in their rebuilding process.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2015
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]


sd.gif




The best farm system in baseball is loaded with high-floor players up top and higher-ceiling players in A-ball and below, giving hope that they can fill the major league roster with inexpensive players and save their limited payroll for a veteran or two once the club is close to contention.

Their only long-term commitment at the moment is the team-friendly deal they just gave Cameron Maybin to lock down center field for the next five years, while over the next two or three seasons they should see prospects fill every other position on the field. (If you're curious, those players are catcher Yasmani Grandal, first base Yonder Alonso, second base Cory Spangenberg, shortstop Jace Peterson, third base Jedd Gyorko, left field Jaff Decker, right field Rymer Liriano.)

Even the rotation will be cheap, young, and effective once Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin arrive -- the latter two are fly ball-prone strike-throwers who are excellent fits for Petco -- and I happen to believe Joe Ross will be a fast mover through the minors despite his youth. The Padres even have the depth to survive the inevitable flameouts that hit every highly touted farm system, including depth behind the plate that every other club except Toronto must envy.

You can't compete on a tiny payroll unless your player development side is producing players who can be league-average for the league minimum, and the Padres are set up right now to do just that.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2015
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]


nym.gif




The good news for Mets fans is that the $43 million rathole known as Santana Bay will close after 2013 with a couple of option buyouts, after which, assuming that David Wright has sailed for non-bankrupt shores, they'll have no significant long-term commitments.

The bad news, aside from the running farce in the ownership suite is that the new front-office regime's turnaround hasn't had enough time to do more than make sure the ship is facing the right direction. There are a few potential stars in the system in right-handers Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey, both of whom could debut this year if the rotation has room for them, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who's probably a good four years off even if the knee trouble is completely behind him, but those three aren't enough to be the core of a championship club. And, unfortunately, they don't have great assets on the major league roster to trade for prospects.

New ownership would help, but otherwise the Mets will have to build through the draft and international markets, which will take several years unless they get an infusion of cash.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2016
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]


hou.gif




New GM Jeff Luhnow inherited the weakest collection of talent, top to bottom, in baseball, and one of the weakest any new GM has inherited in recent memory; it's a low-ranked farm system coupled with a major league club that isn't just bad, but is almost devoid of tradable veteran assets.

Sure, Luhnow might flip Wandy Rodriguez for a mid-range prospect if he throws in some salary, but Carlos Lee and Brett Myers are probably just straight salary dumps. They have one potential above-average regular on the 40-man roster in Jose Altuve, and two potential above-average starters in Jordan Lyles (whose service time was mismanaged last year as Ed Wade tried to save his job) and Bud Norris, the latter of whom might be a good trade candidate this summer or fall because he has three years of control remaining.

In a best-case scenario, the current system could produce three or four more above-average players over the next three years, and the fact that the next three draft classes are likely to be high school-heavy won't help accelerate Houston's timetable. The one major positive, other than the improvement in the front office, is that the team has nothing committed after 2013 except a buyout for Rodriguez; in addition, the team is so bad right now that they can take on risks most other clubs would be unwilling to take. Even great drafting won't give them a winning club in 2015-16, and real contention is probably two full cycles away.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2018

Pena's sneaky value.

Spoiler [+]
In my mind, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays')">Tampa Bay Rays leader Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball. He routinely coaxes extra wins out of his cash-strapped franchise, and being able to think outside the box is one of the main reasons. Maddon hit slugging first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-pena">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-pena')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4594" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Pena in the No. 2 spot in the lineup Sunday, and while that in itself isn't too noteworthy since it's only spring training, if it becomes a semi-permanent change, we should definitely pay attention. After all, Pena does get on base at a nice clip: His 101 walks last season ranked fifth in baseball, prompting a useful .357 on-base percentage, similar to his career mark.
"I think that the traditional No. 2 has gone out the window many years ago," Maddon said Sunday. "I don't see it that way, especially in an American League lineup. If you have any kind of productivity at the bottom half, and that happens sometimes, you have that when an eighth- or ninth-place hitter gets on base a lot, that bleeds into No. 2, and that can be a very fruitful position to knock in points, also. Part of it is setting the table. Part of it is I don't look at it in the traditional way because it's just not there anymore, especially in our division, our league."

[+] Enlarge
Brian Kersey/Getty ImagesCarlos Pena walked 101 times and had 58 extra-base hits in 606 plate appearances in 2011.

Agreed. This isn't the 1980s, when powerless middle infielders hit second and bunted to move the speedy leadoff guy up a base. Pena isn't a coveted fantasy player, despite hitting 28 home runs for the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs')">Chicago Cubs last season (tied for 30th), but his power is no fluke, either. Pena has averaged 34 home runs per season over the past five years, including a mammoth 46-homer campaign with the Rays in 2007. Since hitting .282 that season, his batting average has scared off fantasy owners. Last year he hit .225, which was 29 points better than in 2010, his last season with Tampa Bay.

Still, first base is not nearly as deep as it has been in recent years, and Pena is being selected in the 20th round of ESPN average live drafts. It seems reasonable, but it's also a full six rounds after http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles corner option http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28772/mark-reynolds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28772/mark-reynolds')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28772" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mark Reynolds. Full disclosure, I can't remember ever taking Reynolds in a league. Ever. The power is legit, but he's just as much a batting average drag -- if not more -- as Pena. Another differentiator is the OBP, for leagues in which that matters. Pena gets on base. Good for Maddon for noticing. It's not like his other potential No. 2 options, such as http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5970" instance="_ppc" tab="null">B.J. Upton, get on base more or avoid striking out. We want http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28639/evan-longoria">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28639/evan-longoria')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28639" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Evan Longoria to knock in runs, and having Pena hit second should create more opportunity. The point on Reynolds is I tend to avoid batting-average issues at all cost, especially that early. Pena in the final rounds is a bit more palatable. In an OPS league, I'd have few concerns.

Ultimately, this could be one of those spring flings that get wildly debated but don't come to fruition. Last season Maddon's lineups were all over the place. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3323" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Johnny Damon was given roughly half the team's plate appearances in the No. 2 spot but got on base at merely a .293 clip. Upton was terrific in the role over 23 games, walking, stealing, hitting for power and scoring nearly a run per game. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28536/ben-zobrist">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28536/ben-zobrist')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28536" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ben Zobrist also hit in that spot quite a bit, where he posted a .396 OBP. Longoria is going to have a big season, and it certainly would be nice if an on-base guy like Pena or Zobrist -- sorry, I can't buy Upton in that role -- hit ahead of him.

Since we're talking Rays and the feedback was positive last time I rummaged through an entire lineup, here are my thoughts on Maddon's Rays:

[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireDesmond Jennings' steals potential sets him apart from other top offensive prospects.

1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30493/desmond-jennings">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30493/desmond-jennings')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30493" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Desmond Jennings, OF: He's safely in my top 100 but is merely an 11th-rounder in ESPN drafts. He's certainly going to run, and I don't see the batting average risk being Pena-like. Pass up the No. 3 starting pitcher and take Jennings.

2. Carlos Pena, 1B: If he stays at this spot, I think he will hit above the .250 mark. Who wants to walk Pena with Longoria up next? I'd move Pena up a few rounds (15th round?) if I thought he'd stay in this lineup slot, and if your league eschews batting average for OBP, move him up a lot.

3. Evan Longoria, 3B: I think he's an early second-rounder and legit real-life MVP choice. Watch him add perhaps 50 points to his batting average and smack 35 home runs.

4. Ben Zobrist, 2B: No matter where he hits, he'll produce. He's not likely to win a batting title, but we'd take another .269 season, with near 20/20 stats at second base. He's in my top 40!

5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29124/matt-joyce">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29124/matt-joyce')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29124" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Joyce, RF: I'd bet most people aren't aware he hit .277 with 19 home runs and 75 RBIs in 2011. If he could just hit left-handed pitching even a little bit, watch out. For now, though, he's not a standard-league option.

6. B.J. Upton, CF: Sorry, I don't buy contract-year theories. Upton has hit .241, .237 and .243 the past three seasons. He runs, hits for power, whiffs a lot and will make a lot of outs. This is who he is, but still that's a near top-50 player to me, not his ADP rank of 80.

7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6229/luke-scott">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6229/luke-scott')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6229" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Luke Scott, DH: I liked him as a late pick when he was with the Orioles, as he averaged 25 home runs from 2008 to 2010. I don't see why he can't hit 25 home runs in 2012. He's not a top 50 outfielder for me, but he's not far away from that.

8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29105/sean-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29105/sean-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29105" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Sean Rodriguez, SS: He's 26 now and not likely to suddenly start hitting right-handed pitching. I could see a 15-homer/15-steal season at some point, but this is a career .229 hitter, and it's well-deserved. I wouldn't draft him in a 12-teamer.

9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4169/jose-molina">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4169/jose-molina')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4169" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Molina, C: Well, the Tampa Bay pitchers like him, at least. Don't be stunned when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29710/jose-lobaton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29710/jose-lobaton')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Lobaton, a switch-hitter who can take a walk, plays more.

Unheralded A's loaded with sleepers.

Spoiler [+]
I can't wait to see what new http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32080/yoenis-cespedes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32080/yoenis-cespedes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32080" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Yoenis Cespedes does this season, but I'm similarly intrigued by quite a few of his new teammates, too, options that should make the Opening Day roster. Of course, based on what we're seeing in ESPN average live drafts, I might be somewhat alone in my interest level!
The Athletics aren't blessed with much star power, a fact somewhat proven by a lack of fantasy standouts. A year ago, no A's player finished among the top 50 on the Player Rater, and outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp was the only one to crack the top 100. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6024/josh-willingham">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/6024/josh-willingham')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6024" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Josh Willingham, now on the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins, was the lone Athletic to reach 15 home runs. Similarly, double-digit winners http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28962" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gio Gonzalez and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30054/trevor-cahill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30054" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Trevor Cahill and closer http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-bailey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30096/andrew-bailey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30096" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andrew Bailey are somewhere else.

That doesn't mean certain Athletics can't help fantasy owners. While I'm a bit more lukewarm than most on Cespedes translating into big-time value for this season, here are five other members of this squad I could see ending up with in drafts of varying sizes. I could say I really like them, but that's not entirely true. I just see value, and let's get this out of the way first: http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/2974/manny-ramirez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2974" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Manny Ramirez will not be mentioned in this blog entry again!

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Mark DuncanAt 5-foot-9 and 161 pounds, Jemile Weeks is a bit smaller than his older brother, but he's quicker.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30035/jemile-weeks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30035/jemile-weeks')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30035" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jemile Weeks, 2B: I was asked by a friend recently to make the case for him over his older, more brittle yet more slugging brother http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5652/rickie-weeks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5652/rickie-weeks')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5652" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rickie Weeks of the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers, and I'll tell you what, I can do it. Rickie is projected for 24 home runs but doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal many bases and can't stay healthy. Let's just say Rickie isn't likely to end up on my teams, especially since he's being taken much earlier (in the ninth round, on average, in ESPN live drafts). Jemile is going 11 rounds later! Now, Jemile is a bit unaccomplished at the big league level, but he stole 22 bases in 97 games, so the threat for 30 is clearly there. The younger brother doesn't have power and he's not likely to hit .300 with a low walk rate and assuming his high rookie BABIP normalizes some, but he's a bargain that late in drafts for your middle infield slot.

Coco Crisp, OF: Colleague Matthew Berry and I debated Crisp's value on Monday's Fantasy Focus podcast. Crisp can clearly run, even at 32 years of age. He swiped 49 bases in 58 attempts in 2011; only http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28535/michael-bourn">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28535/michael-bourn')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28535" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Michael Bourn stole more bases. In 2010, Crisp was 32-for-35 in roughly half a season! My main concern about Crisp isn't Cespedes taking his job. It's his health. Crisp averaged only 81 games played from 2008-10, and players in this era generally don't get more durable as they age. Crisp is the first Athletic going in ESPN drafts, a 15th-rounder and 32nd among outfielders, and that's decent value. One of these years Crisp could steal 60 bases and look a lot more like Bourn (who is an overdrafted fourth-rounder, in my mind) than anyone realizes.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6191/brandon-mccarthy">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/6191/brandon-mccarthy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6191" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brandon McCarthy, SP: A recent "ESPN The Magazine" cover subject, I'm happy the right-hander was able to resurrect a once-promising career with a breakout 2011 campaign. Some will say it's all about the change in ballparks, moving to spacious O.co Coliseum, but McCarthy's road numbers were just fine, too (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). He's not a big strikeout guy, and of course the risk of injury with him remains, but he made my top 50 starting pitchers. My favorite quote from the mag article: "I didn't want to suck at baseball anymore." That's tremendous. McCarthy can provide another useful season as a No. 5 fantasy starter, so give him the chance.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29563/josh-donaldson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29563/josh-donaldson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29563" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Josh Donaldson, C: I compete in a really deep league in which members are always trying to find eligibility loopholes. It's a two-catcher league as well, and there are rarely enough backstops to go around. Last season I think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28830/jake-fox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28830/jake-fox')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28830" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jake Fox was my second catcher (he qualified, and still does!). Nevertheless, the season-ending injury to enticing third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29388/scott-sizemore">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29388/scott-sizemore')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29388" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Scott Sizemore left a void, and Donaldson is getting a shot to fill it. As a third baseman even in deep leagues, I can't say I'm interested. As a second catcher, I am. Donaldson has enough power and speed to matter, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 13 bases at Triple-A Sacramento, and he draws his fair share of walks. If Donaldson can hit double-digit home runs for the Athletics, he's worth a look for you in AL-only formats at catcher. I mean, he might not be http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzuki">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzuki')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28802" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kurt Suzuki, but, well, he might not be far off from him statistically.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brad Peacock, SP: I did, for a minute, think about placing http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3602/bartolo-colon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3602/bartolo-colon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3602" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Bartolo Colon in this spot. After all, the large right-hander bounced back for the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees with credible numbers, even though lefty hitters had a field day (field season?) against him, and the second-half performance was below average. In this large ballpark, Colon could probably keep his ERA in the low 4s. But I don't like Bartolo Colon. Never have. Peacock, a mature 24, throws hard enough to miss bats, and while he might have similar numbers to Colon initially, at least Peacock possesses upside. I think the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...wsh/washington-nationals')">Washington Nationals will greatly regret the Gio Gonzalez trade; Peacock doesn't project as an ace, but he should be useful. Catcher http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30608/derek-norris">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30608/derek-norris')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30608" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Norris and young right-hander A.J. Cole have major upside. Anyway, I don't trust Gonzalez out of Oakland -- he had a 4.32 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road in his A's days -- and Peacock doesn't figure to walk many hitters. I have a feeling Peacock will be at least a 10-game winner in 2012.

Five first impressions for 2012.

Spoiler [+]
I emailed a longtime club official a couple of weeks ago and asked for some early developments in his team's camp, and his response contained two words: "Too early."

But on Monday, the same official talked for a half-hour about what he has seen in his team, and what he is seeing in other teams.

Nothing counts, yet, but first impressions for the 2012 season are being formed, and if you wade into conversations among scouts and executives these days, these are some of the things you hear:

1. The vision of the Angels' front office is coming together.

Albert Pujols looks like Albert Pujols -- in other words, he looks great -- and because Kendrys Morales is getting closer to playing in games, the Angels' lineup could be better than expected. "If Morales comes back and is close to being what he was," said one NL evaluator over the weekend, "I think it makes them a different team. They need a guy who can do damage behind [Pujols]."

2. The Atlanta Braves don't look much different than the club that collapsed last September.

Spring training stats should never be taken at face value, especially wins and losses. But the Braves are 1-10 in the Grapefruit League, ace Tim Hudson is out indefinitely, and some of the hitters who need to succeed are not. Chipper Jones isn't feeling great this spring, and he mused to David O'Brien about the possibility he won't be able to make it through the season. The Braves' hope is that Tyler Pastornicky could be OK offensively, but so far, he's 3-for-26. Jason Heyward is 4-for-24 with one extra-base hit and eight strikeouts, and the early chorus from scouts is concern about whether Heyward's mechanical adjustments will work, or if he will need a lot more time.

There is a silver lining: Martin Prado has hit well.

3. The Toronto Blue Jays keep getting better.

There is a good vibe around the Blue Jays, who could be a contender if they get production from the rotation behind Ricky Romero. This is an eye-popping number from the most recent start of Brandon Morrow, who is looking to use his curveball more and more as his primary off-speed pitch: He threw 27 strikes in 33 pitches in his most recent start.

4. The San Diego Padres like what they see from Andrew Cashner. A lot.

San Diego landed him in the deal for Anthony Rizzo, and Cashner has been clocked in the 98-101 mph range in his first outings of the spring, without allowing a run. The Padres' plan is to use him as a seventh- and eighth-inning reliever this year, but the more they see -- and the longer Cashner stays healthy -- the more San Diego is open to the idea of eventually shifting the right-hander back into a starting role. (To be clear: This is not an option in 2012.)

5. Miguel Cabrera is going to be playable as a third baseman.

As one evaluator said recently about Cabrera, as an infielder: He's got a strong arm and he has decent hands. And he's played the position before, for many years. This is not Mike Piazza moving from catcher to first base. This is more like Chipper Jones shifting back from left field to third base.

It's so far so good at third base for Cabrera, writes Tom Gage.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• One scout mentioned before spring training started -- and he was sort of joking and sort of not -- that we should take bets on which team gets hit with the first DUI of camp. The New York Mets weren't the first, but they had one on Sunday night.

It happens every year, and you wonder if it's time MLB and the Players Association talked about other ways to discourage this kind of thing.

• Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- is now awaiting approval for a visa to the U.S., and there are rumors he could be back this weekend.

• Bobby V. waved goodbye to Ozzie Guillen, after Ozzie was ejected.

• Brad Lidge is honest, a great teammate and generally understated, which is why his comments about how good the Washington Nationals will be are very interesting.

• Major League Baseball rejected one possible bidder for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Lew Wolff says the Oakland Athletics are not for sale.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Remember this any time you see the Blue Jays connected with any possible deal: Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos adheres to an exhaustive process of evaluation as he considers options. So if he asks about a pitcher, it's not necessarily because he's interested in that pitcher; it's because he asks about all pitchers. Every GM has a particular style and manner of operation, and if this were college, Anthopoulos would be the student living in the library, except when he scheduled extra help with his professors.

2. There was a decision related to the parking garages for the Marlins' new park, writes Patricia Mazzei.

3. Erick Aybar could be the Angels' leadoff hitter.

4. Billy Beane is not guaranteeing that Yoenis Cespedes will be in the big leagues to start the season, Joe Stiglich writes.

5. Buck Showalter doesn't feel a need to name his Opening Day starter.

6. Matt Holliday is hitting in the No. 3 hole for the St. Louis Cardinals.

7. The Detroit Tigers cut David Pauley.

8. Alex Cobb was assigned to the Rays' minor league camp.

9. The Rays are open to the idea of adding a catcher, but they are not interested in Pudge Rodriguez.

10. The Padres' payroll has climbed markedly.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Davey Johnson wants to find more help for Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, writes Adam Kilgore.

2. Paul Goldschmidt is confident he has what it takes to be the D-backs' first baseman.

3. Michael Saunders has emerged as a front-runner to play center field for the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.

4. Oakland has two candidates for the closer's spot, as mentioned within this John Shea piece.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddy Sanchez is feeling better, Carl Steward writes.

2. Nyjer Morgan is feeling OK.

3. David Wright got a cortisone shot.

4. Tim Byrdak is having knee surgery.

5. Chris Carpenter's Opening Day start is in jeopardy.

6. Mike Napoli is hurting.
[h3]Tuesday's games[/h3]
1. Ryan Zimmerman is killing the ball.

2. Jim Thome had his first action at first base, Matt Gelb writes.

3. Tim Lincecum looked good.

4. Charlie Morton threw a couple of good innings.

5. Ryan Doumit showed off a strong arm.

6. Hiroki Kuroda found some flaws in his own performance, Jeff Bradley writes.

7. Andrew Bailey got knocked around.

8. Kyle Weiland had a good day.
 
Cespedes shows bat speed and patience.

Spoiler [+]
My first look at Yoenis Cespedes of the Oakland Athletics came in Sunday's game against the Kansas City Royals, although he was the DH so I have yet to witness the cannon of legend. You can see the upside pretty clearly just at the plate, but I could also see why other teams were skeptical about his ability to come right to the majors.

Cespedes is a big kid -- if you can call a player listed at 26 years old a kid -- with intense bat speed that he uses to try to pull every pitch he sees. He really collapses his back side when he swings and rolls over his front foot, so while there is indisputable plus power there, he's going to swing-and-miss a lot. But the pleasant surprise of the day was how patient Cespedes was, laying off a number of pitches just outside the zone that I expected him to chase.

He didn't face any tough MLB-caliber right-handers, but the fact that he has a somewhat advanced approach should give A's fans hope that, in addition to the power, he can draw some walks to make up for the low overall contact rate.
[h3]Game notes[/h3]
• Royals left-hander Mike Montgomery had the worst outing I've ever seen from him, in terms of stuff as well as results, sitting 90-91 mph -- occasionally touching 92 -- lacking feel for his changeup and struggling to command his curveball. He was behind hitters when he wasn't watching them crush his fastball, and he barely used his changeup, ordinarily an above-average-to-plus pitch. The main difference I noticed with Montgomery Monday versus previous looks was that in this game, he was landing on the ball of his front foot first then getting his heel down, instead of landing squarely with the entire front foot, giving him more stability as he accelerated his arm. I'm also concerned any time I see a pitcher who's had arm problems -- Montgomery missed time in 2010 with minor elbow trouble -- show up without all his velocity, but in this case the landing problem might explain it all.

• I caught the A's last week, when Jarrod Parker started, and while it wasn't his best outing in terms of command the stuff was mostly there. Parker hit 94 mph with his four-seamer and was 88-91 with his two-seamer but was guiding everything he threw, even his changeup (several were plus, but not all) and slider, which was much better at 81-84 when he just let it go instead of trying too hard to locate it. One of those sliders froze Matt Kemp by hitting the outside corner, so it's not as if Parker can't throw the pitch for strikes without babying it. A scout told me prior to that game that he'd seen Parker's previous outing and thought Arizona would regret giving him up for Trevor Cahill, so one slightly off day isn't a real concern.

• Also for Oakland, left-hander Sean Doolittle is attempting a comeback as a pitcher after his career as a position player stalled out because of knee and wrist injuries; his last at bat was May 8, 2009, after which he had two significant surgeries that more or less ended his chances to play the field. Doolittle hit the mid-90s in the fall and has hit 93 this spring but was 89-91 last Thursday with a slow, soft curveball at 72-75. His arm slot is below three-quarters and there's some slinging action, so he should be tough for left-handed hitters to pick up if he can sharpen the breaking ball. Doolittle's a great story if he makes it, but it looks like there's a ways to go.

• Michael Choice had a couple at-bats in the same game, punching out in both of them by chasing all manner of off-speed stuff below the zone and/or away from him. He was closing his stance very late and obviously wasn't recognizing pitches that day. I've always had concerns about his capacity to swing-and-miss, so his inability to lay off those unhittable pitches just added to those doubts.

Timelines for contention.

Spoiler [+]
Preseason predictions tend to focus more on the likely contenders than the likely also-rans, as no one gets that worked up over a team that's going to win 70 games, plus or minus five. Even the fans of those teams are usually more concerned about their long-term outlooks, so I've looked at five such clubs to assess how long their fans might have to wait before the teams could reasonably expect to contend.

I've looked at future payroll commitments, major league assets, farm systems, ownership status and front office strategies. I also considered the competition in each team's division to assess their chances of earning a playoff spot. So, for example, the New York Mets face a higher standard than the Chicago Cubs or San Diego Padres because the National League East is so tough. (Exclusion of any club isn't a comment on how soon they might become competitive.)
[h3]Kansas City Royals[/h3]


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The Royals aren't that far off, but exactly how far is more a function of their pitching than all other variables combined. The offense has improved markedly over the past two years, with Eric Hosmer prepared to explode on the league this year, and the Royals have gradually improved their defense at most positions, looking weak only at third base and possibly left field. Their only significant contract commitments beyond 2013 are to Billy Butler (through 2014) and Salvador Perez (2016, plus club options), so they have the flexibility to add a major arm or to continue to lock up critical young players to long-term deals.

But their lack of pitching at the major-league level is exacerbated by difficulty getting their first wave of top pitching prospects -- led by Danny Duffy, Mike Montgomery and John Lamb -- established in the majors, with Duffy the most successful so far by default.

General manager Dayton Moore has done a solid job of poaching undervalued arms from other organizations, but you can't build a contending staff that way. So the Royals will either need to have several of those young arms -- a group that could also include Aaron Crow, Chris Dwyer and Jake Odorizzi -- step forward in the next two seasons, or they'll have to trade some of their prospect depth for a starter, just as Milwaukee did to acquire Zack Greinke from the Royals a year ago. The Royals have the players to do it, but it might mean giving up a prized prospect such as Wil Myers or Cheslor Cuthbert in the service of pushing the team back over .500.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2014
[h3]Chicago Cubs[/h3]


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It helps that the NL Central is one of the weaker divisions, but the Cubs' rebuilding has barely broken ground at this point -- the new front office has barely had a chance to clear the land. Their moves this winter, other than the trade of reliever Andrew Cashner for first base prospect Anthony Rizzo and pitcher Zack Cates, were largely about moving money around and keeping the 2012 product respectable without making dangerous long-term commitments such as the one wandering aimlessly around left field these days. (And it should be quite respectable, maybe even a little better if their gambles on starting pitchers whose peripheral stats were better than their ERAs work out.)

Chicago's farm system is thin up top but has a lot of high-risk, high-upside players in its lowest levels; even their extended spring training club will be fun to watch this year. But the Cubs' best chance to engineer a turnaround will probably come from trades, starting with Matt Garza but perhaps extending to players such as Geovany Soto or Carlos Marmol if they can re-establish their value with solid 2012 performances; they bought low on Ian Stewart and Chris Volstad and could end up selling high if either player fulfills his former first-round promise in the next two years.

By the 2013-14 offseason, they'll have a significant amount of cash to spend but only a handful of less expensive players in significant roles, so cashing in Garza for the maximum return looks like the critical step in their rebuilding process.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2015
[h3]San Diego Padres[/h3]


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The best farm system in baseball is loaded with high-floor players up top and higher-ceiling players in A-ball and below, giving hope that they can fill the major league roster with inexpensive players and save their limited payroll for a veteran or two once the club is close to contention.

Their only long-term commitment at the moment is the team-friendly deal they just gave Cameron Maybin to lock down center field for the next five years, while over the next two or three seasons they should see prospects fill every other position on the field. (If you're curious, those players are catcher Yasmani Grandal, first base Yonder Alonso, second base Cory Spangenberg, shortstop Jace Peterson, third base Jedd Gyorko, left field Jaff Decker, right field Rymer Liriano.)

Even the rotation will be cheap, young, and effective once Casey Kelly, Joe Wieland and Robbie Erlin arrive -- the latter two are fly ball-prone strike-throwers who are excellent fits for Petco -- and I happen to believe Joe Ross will be a fast mover through the minors despite his youth. The Padres even have the depth to survive the inevitable flameouts that hit every highly touted farm system, including depth behind the plate that every other club except Toronto must envy.

You can't compete on a tiny payroll unless your player development side is producing players who can be league-average for the league minimum, and the Padres are set up right now to do just that.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2015
[h3]New York Mets[/h3]


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The good news for Mets fans is that the $43 million rathole known as Santana Bay will close after 2013 with a couple of option buyouts, after which, assuming that David Wright has sailed for non-bankrupt shores, they'll have no significant long-term commitments.

The bad news, aside from the running farce in the ownership suite is that the new front-office regime's turnaround hasn't had enough time to do more than make sure the ship is facing the right direction. There are a few potential stars in the system in right-handers Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey, both of whom could debut this year if the rotation has room for them, and outfielder Brandon Nimmo, who's probably a good four years off even if the knee trouble is completely behind him, but those three aren't enough to be the core of a championship club. And, unfortunately, they don't have great assets on the major league roster to trade for prospects.

New ownership would help, but otherwise the Mets will have to build through the draft and international markets, which will take several years unless they get an infusion of cash.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2016
[h3]Houston Astros[/h3]


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New GM Jeff Luhnow inherited the weakest collection of talent, top to bottom, in baseball, and one of the weakest any new GM has inherited in recent memory; it's a low-ranked farm system coupled with a major league club that isn't just bad, but is almost devoid of tradable veteran assets.

Sure, Luhnow might flip Wandy Rodriguez for a mid-range prospect if he throws in some salary, but Carlos Lee and Brett Myers are probably just straight salary dumps. They have one potential above-average regular on the 40-man roster in Jose Altuve, and two potential above-average starters in Jordan Lyles (whose service time was mismanaged last year as Ed Wade tried to save his job) and Bud Norris, the latter of whom might be a good trade candidate this summer or fall because he has three years of control remaining.

In a best-case scenario, the current system could produce three or four more above-average players over the next three years, and the fact that the next three draft classes are likely to be high school-heavy won't help accelerate Houston's timetable. The one major positive, other than the improvement in the front office, is that the team has nothing committed after 2013 except a buyout for Rodriguez; in addition, the team is so bad right now that they can take on risks most other clubs would be unwilling to take. Even great drafting won't give them a winning club in 2015-16, and real contention is probably two full cycles away.

They will most likely contend next in ... 2018

Pena's sneaky value.

Spoiler [+]
In my mind, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tb/tampa-bay-rays')">Tampa Bay Rays leader Joe Maddon is the best manager in baseball. He routinely coaxes extra wins out of his cash-strapped franchise, and being able to think outside the box is one of the main reasons. Maddon hit slugging first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-pena">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4594/carlos-pena')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4594" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Carlos Pena in the No. 2 spot in the lineup Sunday, and while that in itself isn't too noteworthy since it's only spring training, if it becomes a semi-permanent change, we should definitely pay attention. After all, Pena does get on base at a nice clip: His 101 walks last season ranked fifth in baseball, prompting a useful .357 on-base percentage, similar to his career mark.
"I think that the traditional No. 2 has gone out the window many years ago," Maddon said Sunday. "I don't see it that way, especially in an American League lineup. If you have any kind of productivity at the bottom half, and that happens sometimes, you have that when an eighth- or ninth-place hitter gets on base a lot, that bleeds into No. 2, and that can be a very fruitful position to knock in points, also. Part of it is setting the table. Part of it is I don't look at it in the traditional way because it's just not there anymore, especially in our division, our league."

[+] Enlarge
Brian Kersey/Getty ImagesCarlos Pena walked 101 times and had 58 extra-base hits in 606 plate appearances in 2011.

Agreed. This isn't the 1980s, when powerless middle infielders hit second and bunted to move the speedy leadoff guy up a base. Pena isn't a coveted fantasy player, despite hitting 28 home runs for the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/chc/chicago-cubs')">Chicago Cubs last season (tied for 30th), but his power is no fluke, either. Pena has averaged 34 home runs per season over the past five years, including a mammoth 46-homer campaign with the Rays in 2007. Since hitting .282 that season, his batting average has scared off fantasy owners. Last year he hit .225, which was 29 points better than in 2010, his last season with Tampa Bay.

Still, first base is not nearly as deep as it has been in recent years, and Pena is being selected in the 20th round of ESPN average live drafts. It seems reasonable, but it's also a full six rounds after http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bal/baltimore-orioles">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/bal/baltimore-orioles')">Baltimore Orioles corner option http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28772/mark-reynolds">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28772/mark-reynolds')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28772" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Mark Reynolds. Full disclosure, I can't remember ever taking Reynolds in a league. Ever. The power is legit, but he's just as much a batting average drag -- if not more -- as Pena. Another differentiator is the OBP, for leagues in which that matters. Pena gets on base. Good for Maddon for noticing. It's not like his other potential No. 2 options, such as http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5970/bj-upton')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5970" instance="_ppc" tab="null">B.J. Upton, get on base more or avoid striking out. We want http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28639/evan-longoria">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28639/evan-longoria')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28639" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Evan Longoria to knock in runs, and having Pena hit second should create more opportunity. The point on Reynolds is I tend to avoid batting-average issues at all cost, especially that early. Pena in the final rounds is a bit more palatable. In an OPS league, I'd have few concerns.

Ultimately, this could be one of those spring flings that get wildly debated but don't come to fruition. Last season Maddon's lineups were all over the place. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3323/johnny-damon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3323" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Johnny Damon was given roughly half the team's plate appearances in the No. 2 spot but got on base at merely a .293 clip. Upton was terrific in the role over 23 games, walking, stealing, hitting for power and scoring nearly a run per game. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28536/ben-zobrist">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28536/ben-zobrist')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28536" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Ben Zobrist also hit in that spot quite a bit, where he posted a .396 OBP. Longoria is going to have a big season, and it certainly would be nice if an on-base guy like Pena or Zobrist -- sorry, I can't buy Upton in that role -- hit ahead of him.

Since we're talking Rays and the feedback was positive last time I rummaged through an entire lineup, here are my thoughts on Maddon's Rays:

[+] Enlarge
Kim Klement/US PresswireDesmond Jennings' steals potential sets him apart from other top offensive prospects.

1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30493/desmond-jennings">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30493/desmond-jennings')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30493" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Desmond Jennings, OF: He's safely in my top 100 but is merely an 11th-rounder in ESPN drafts. He's certainly going to run, and I don't see the batting average risk being Pena-like. Pass up the No. 3 starting pitcher and take Jennings.

2. Carlos Pena, 1B: If he stays at this spot, I think he will hit above the .250 mark. Who wants to walk Pena with Longoria up next? I'd move Pena up a few rounds (15th round?) if I thought he'd stay in this lineup slot, and if your league eschews batting average for OBP, move him up a lot.

3. Evan Longoria, 3B: I think he's an early second-rounder and legit real-life MVP choice. Watch him add perhaps 50 points to his batting average and smack 35 home runs.

4. Ben Zobrist, 2B: No matter where he hits, he'll produce. He's not likely to win a batting title, but we'd take another .269 season, with near 20/20 stats at second base. He's in my top 40!

5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29124/matt-joyce">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29124/matt-joyce')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29124" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Matt Joyce, RF: I'd bet most people aren't aware he hit .277 with 19 home runs and 75 RBIs in 2011. If he could just hit left-handed pitching even a little bit, watch out. For now, though, he's not a standard-league option.

6. B.J. Upton, CF: Sorry, I don't buy contract-year theories. Upton has hit .241, .237 and .243 the past three seasons. He runs, hits for power, whiffs a lot and will make a lot of outs. This is who he is, but still that's a near top-50 player to me, not his ADP rank of 80.

7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6229/luke-scott">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6229/luke-scott')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6229" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Luke Scott, DH: I liked him as a late pick when he was with the Orioles, as he averaged 25 home runs from 2008 to 2010. I don't see why he can't hit 25 home runs in 2012. He's not a top 50 outfielder for me, but he's not far away from that.

8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29105/sean-rodriguez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29105/sean-rodriguez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29105" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Sean Rodriguez, SS: He's 26 now and not likely to suddenly start hitting right-handed pitching. I could see a 15-homer/15-steal season at some point, but this is a career .229 hitter, and it's well-deserved. I wouldn't draft him in a 12-teamer.

9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4169/jose-molina">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4169/jose-molina')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4169" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Molina, C: Well, the Tampa Bay pitchers like him, at least. Don't be stunned when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29710/jose-lobaton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29710/jose-lobaton')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29710" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jose Lobaton, a switch-hitter who can take a walk, plays more.

Unheralded A's loaded with sleepers.

Spoiler [+]
I can't wait to see what new http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32080/yoenis-cespedes">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32080/yoenis-cespedes')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32080" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Yoenis Cespedes does this season, but I'm similarly intrigued by quite a few of his new teammates, too, options that should make the Opening Day roster. Of course, based on what we're seeing in ESPN average live drafts, I might be somewhat alone in my interest level!
The Athletics aren't blessed with much star power, a fact somewhat proven by a lack of fantasy standouts. A year ago, no A's player finished among the top 50 on the Player Rater, and outfielder http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5299/coco-crisp')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5299" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Coco Crisp was the only one to crack the top 100. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6024/josh-willingham">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/6024/josh-willingham')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6024" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Josh Willingham, now on the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/min/minnesota-twins">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...name/min/minnesota-twins')">Minnesota Twins, was the lone Athletic to reach 15 home runs. Similarly, double-digit winners http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28962/gio-gonzalez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28962" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Gio Gonzalez and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30054/trevor-cahill">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30054/trevor-cahill')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30054" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Trevor Cahill and closer http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30096/andrew-bailey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30096/andrew-bailey')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30096" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Andrew Bailey are somewhere else.

That doesn't mean certain Athletics can't help fantasy owners. While I'm a bit more lukewarm than most on Cespedes translating into big-time value for this season, here are five other members of this squad I could see ending up with in drafts of varying sizes. I could say I really like them, but that's not entirely true. I just see value, and let's get this out of the way first: http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/2974/manny-ramirez">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/2974/manny-ramirez')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="2974" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Manny Ramirez will not be mentioned in this blog entry again!

[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Mark DuncanAt 5-foot-9 and 161 pounds, Jemile Weeks is a bit smaller than his older brother, but he's quicker.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30035/jemile-weeks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30035/jemile-weeks')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30035" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jemile Weeks, 2B: I was asked by a friend recently to make the case for him over his older, more brittle yet more slugging brother http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5652/rickie-weeks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5652/rickie-weeks')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5652" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Rickie Weeks of the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/mil/milwaukee-brewers')">Milwaukee Brewers, and I'll tell you what, I can do it. Rickie is projected for 24 home runs but doesn't hit for average, doesn't steal many bases and can't stay healthy. Let's just say Rickie isn't likely to end up on my teams, especially since he's being taken much earlier (in the ninth round, on average, in ESPN live drafts). Jemile is going 11 rounds later! Now, Jemile is a bit unaccomplished at the big league level, but he stole 22 bases in 97 games, so the threat for 30 is clearly there. The younger brother doesn't have power and he's not likely to hit .300 with a low walk rate and assuming his high rookie BABIP normalizes some, but he's a bargain that late in drafts for your middle infield slot.

Coco Crisp, OF: Colleague Matthew Berry and I debated Crisp's value on Monday's Fantasy Focus podcast. Crisp can clearly run, even at 32 years of age. He swiped 49 bases in 58 attempts in 2011; only http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28535/michael-bourn">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28535/michael-bourn')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28535" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Michael Bourn stole more bases. In 2010, Crisp was 32-for-35 in roughly half a season! My main concern about Crisp isn't Cespedes taking his job. It's his health. Crisp averaged only 81 games played from 2008-10, and players in this era generally don't get more durable as they age. Crisp is the first Athletic going in ESPN drafts, a 15th-rounder and 32nd among outfielders, and that's decent value. One of these years Crisp could steal 60 bases and look a lot more like Bourn (who is an overdrafted fourth-rounder, in my mind) than anyone realizes.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6191/brandon-mccarthy">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/6191/brandon-mccarthy')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6191" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brandon McCarthy, SP: A recent "ESPN The Magazine" cover subject, I'm happy the right-hander was able to resurrect a once-promising career with a breakout 2011 campaign. Some will say it's all about the change in ballparks, moving to spacious O.co Coliseum, but McCarthy's road numbers were just fine, too (3.99 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). He's not a big strikeout guy, and of course the risk of injury with him remains, but he made my top 50 starting pitchers. My favorite quote from the mag article: "I didn't want to suck at baseball anymore." That's tremendous. McCarthy can provide another useful season as a No. 5 fantasy starter, so give him the chance.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29563/josh-donaldson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29563/josh-donaldson')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29563" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Josh Donaldson, C: I compete in a really deep league in which members are always trying to find eligibility loopholes. It's a two-catcher league as well, and there are rarely enough backstops to go around. Last season I think http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28830/jake-fox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28830/jake-fox')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28830" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Jake Fox was my second catcher (he qualified, and still does!). Nevertheless, the season-ending injury to enticing third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29388/scott-sizemore">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/29388/scott-sizemore')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29388" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Scott Sizemore left a void, and Donaldson is getting a shot to fill it. As a third baseman even in deep leagues, I can't say I'm interested. As a second catcher, I am. Donaldson has enough power and speed to matter, hitting 17 home runs and stealing 13 bases at Triple-A Sacramento, and he draws his fair share of walks. If Donaldson can hit double-digit home runs for the Athletics, he's worth a look for you in AL-only formats at catcher. I mean, he might not be http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzuki">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28802/kurt-suzuki')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28802" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Kurt Suzuki, but, well, he might not be far off from him statistically.

http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Brad Peacock, SP: I did, for a minute, think about placing http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3602/bartolo-colon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/3602/bartolo-colon')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3602" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Bartolo Colon in this spot. After all, the large right-hander bounced back for the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nyy/new-york-yankees">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/nyy/new-york-yankees')">New York Yankees with credible numbers, even though lefty hitters had a field day (field season?) against him, and the second-half performance was below average. In this large ballpark, Colon could probably keep his ERA in the low 4s. But I don't like Bartolo Colon. Never have. Peacock, a mature 24, throws hard enough to miss bats, and while he might have similar numbers to Colon initially, at least Peacock possesses upside. I think the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/wsh/washington-nationals">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...wsh/washington-nationals')">Washington Nationals will greatly regret the Gio Gonzalez trade; Peacock doesn't project as an ace, but he should be useful. Catcher http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30608/derek-norris">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30608/derek-norris')" content="tabs#ppc" cache="true" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30608" instance="_ppc" tab="null">Derek Norris and young right-hander A.J. Cole have major upside. Anyway, I don't trust Gonzalez out of Oakland -- he had a 4.32 ERA and 1.46 WHIP on the road in his A's days -- and Peacock doesn't figure to walk many hitters. I have a feeling Peacock will be at least a 10-game winner in 2012.

Five first impressions for 2012.

Spoiler [+]
I emailed a longtime club official a couple of weeks ago and asked for some early developments in his team's camp, and his response contained two words: "Too early."

But on Monday, the same official talked for a half-hour about what he has seen in his team, and what he is seeing in other teams.

Nothing counts, yet, but first impressions for the 2012 season are being formed, and if you wade into conversations among scouts and executives these days, these are some of the things you hear:

1. The vision of the Angels' front office is coming together.

Albert Pujols looks like Albert Pujols -- in other words, he looks great -- and because Kendrys Morales is getting closer to playing in games, the Angels' lineup could be better than expected. "If Morales comes back and is close to being what he was," said one NL evaluator over the weekend, "I think it makes them a different team. They need a guy who can do damage behind [Pujols]."

2. The Atlanta Braves don't look much different than the club that collapsed last September.

Spring training stats should never be taken at face value, especially wins and losses. But the Braves are 1-10 in the Grapefruit League, ace Tim Hudson is out indefinitely, and some of the hitters who need to succeed are not. Chipper Jones isn't feeling great this spring, and he mused to David O'Brien about the possibility he won't be able to make it through the season. The Braves' hope is that Tyler Pastornicky could be OK offensively, but so far, he's 3-for-26. Jason Heyward is 4-for-24 with one extra-base hit and eight strikeouts, and the early chorus from scouts is concern about whether Heyward's mechanical adjustments will work, or if he will need a lot more time.

There is a silver lining: Martin Prado has hit well.

3. The Toronto Blue Jays keep getting better.

There is a good vibe around the Blue Jays, who could be a contender if they get production from the rotation behind Ricky Romero. This is an eye-popping number from the most recent start of Brandon Morrow, who is looking to use his curveball more and more as his primary off-speed pitch: He threw 27 strikes in 33 pitches in his most recent start.

4. The San Diego Padres like what they see from Andrew Cashner. A lot.

San Diego landed him in the deal for Anthony Rizzo, and Cashner has been clocked in the 98-101 mph range in his first outings of the spring, without allowing a run. The Padres' plan is to use him as a seventh- and eighth-inning reliever this year, but the more they see -- and the longer Cashner stays healthy -- the more San Diego is open to the idea of eventually shifting the right-hander back into a starting role. (To be clear: This is not an option in 2012.)

5. Miguel Cabrera is going to be playable as a third baseman.

As one evaluator said recently about Cabrera, as an infielder: He's got a strong arm and he has decent hands. And he's played the position before, for many years. This is not Mike Piazza moving from catcher to first base. This is more like Chipper Jones shifting back from left field to third base.

It's so far so good at third base for Cabrera, writes Tom Gage.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• One scout mentioned before spring training started -- and he was sort of joking and sort of not -- that we should take bets on which team gets hit with the first DUI of camp. The New York Mets weren't the first, but they had one on Sunday night.

It happens every year, and you wonder if it's time MLB and the Players Association talked about other ways to discourage this kind of thing.

• Roberto Hernandez -- the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona -- is now awaiting approval for a visa to the U.S., and there are rumors he could be back this weekend.

• Bobby V. waved goodbye to Ozzie Guillen, after Ozzie was ejected.

• Brad Lidge is honest, a great teammate and generally understated, which is why his comments about how good the Washington Nationals will be are very interesting.

• Major League Baseball rejected one possible bidder for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

• Lew Wolff says the Oakland Athletics are not for sale.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Remember this any time you see the Blue Jays connected with any possible deal: Toronto GM Alex Anthopoulos adheres to an exhaustive process of evaluation as he considers options. So if he asks about a pitcher, it's not necessarily because he's interested in that pitcher; it's because he asks about all pitchers. Every GM has a particular style and manner of operation, and if this were college, Anthopoulos would be the student living in the library, except when he scheduled extra help with his professors.

2. There was a decision related to the parking garages for the Marlins' new park, writes Patricia Mazzei.

3. Erick Aybar could be the Angels' leadoff hitter.

4. Billy Beane is not guaranteeing that Yoenis Cespedes will be in the big leagues to start the season, Joe Stiglich writes.

5. Buck Showalter doesn't feel a need to name his Opening Day starter.

6. Matt Holliday is hitting in the No. 3 hole for the St. Louis Cardinals.

7. The Detroit Tigers cut David Pauley.

8. Alex Cobb was assigned to the Rays' minor league camp.

9. The Rays are open to the idea of adding a catcher, but they are not interested in Pudge Rodriguez.

10. The Padres' payroll has climbed markedly.
[h3]The fight for jobs[/h3]
1. Davey Johnson wants to find more help for Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard, writes Adam Kilgore.

2. Paul Goldschmidt is confident he has what it takes to be the D-backs' first baseman.

3. Michael Saunders has emerged as a front-runner to play center field for the Seattle Mariners, writes Geoff Baker.

4. Oakland has two candidates for the closer's spot, as mentioned within this John Shea piece.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Freddy Sanchez is feeling better, Carl Steward writes.

2. Nyjer Morgan is feeling OK.

3. David Wright got a cortisone shot.

4. Tim Byrdak is having knee surgery.

5. Chris Carpenter's Opening Day start is in jeopardy.

6. Mike Napoli is hurting.
[h3]Tuesday's games[/h3]
1. Ryan Zimmerman is killing the ball.

2. Jim Thome had his first action at first base, Matt Gelb writes.

3. Tim Lincecum looked good.

4. Charlie Morton threw a couple of good innings.

5. Ryan Doumit showed off a strong arm.

6. Hiroki Kuroda found some flaws in his own performance, Jeff Bradley writes.

7. Andrew Bailey got knocked around.

8. Kyle Weiland had a good day.
 
Spring position battles: Hannahan vs. Chisenhall.
Spoiler [+]
After sniffing success through the first half of last season, the Cleveland Indians have fully shifted into contender mode. Trading away promising, young starters Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez cemented that transition for the organization, and the thirst for a postseason berth continued this winter with an early acquisition of veteran Derek Lowe.

Due to their expectations to contend in the AL Central and for a postseason berth, the spring training battle between Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall for the starting third baseman role this year is incredibly interesting. It pits an average guy in Hannahan (who offers little in terms of upside or, historically, offensive production) against a former top prospect in Chisenhall (who is inexperienced and struggled last year, but has legitimate upside).

Hannahan surprised many people last year, accumulating a career-high +2.4 WAR season largely on the strength of his plus-defense, despite spending the entire 2010 season in Triple-A with the Red Sox and Mariners. His offensive numbers also improved significantly from his previous two seasons in the big leagues. For the first time since 2007, he was league-average with the bat. His wRC+ was exactly 100, and the .308 BABIP suggests his performance was unaided by significant luck on balls in play. That suggests his improvements at the plate could be expected to continue into the upcoming season.

In terms of projection, the 32-year-old third baseman is what he is at this point. He provides one of the best gloves in the game at third base, has a decent walk rate, and can occasionally poke one out of the park. Significant improvement should not be expected at this point in his career.

Chisenhall, on the other hand, was the 25th-ranked prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season. He only posted a .303 wOBA in his first 223 big league plate appearances last year, but much of that can likely be attributed to the expected struggles of a 22-year-old attempting to handle major league pitching for the first time in his career. His walk rate (3.6%) was significantly lower than his minor league averages, while his strikeout rate (22.0%) was worse than his minor league numbers.

The main culprit for those extreme shifts in plate discipline was a 42.3% O-Swing%. Only 14 of 355 players who had at least 200 plate appearances in 2011 swung at more pitches outside the zone. The Indians can reasonably expect his plate discipline to improve, however, as his O-Swing% in Triple-A last year was only 9.6% (via Minor League Central). Of course, minor league plate discipline numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as the resources available in their parks are significantly inferior to their major league equivalents, but the vast difference between the 42.3% and 9.6% suggests a major shift in approach that would still exist with a reasonable margin for error taken into account.

So, who ultimately gets the Opening Day nod?

Manny Acta has stated that the race is entirely in Chisenhall’s hands this spring:
“He’s going to have to convince us that he’s the guy — that’s plain and simple,
Click to expand...
 
Spring position battles: Hannahan vs. Chisenhall.
Spoiler [+]
After sniffing success through the first half of last season, the Cleveland Indians have fully shifted into contender mode. Trading away promising, young starters Drew Pomeranz and Alex White for right-hander Ubaldo Jimenez cemented that transition for the organization, and the thirst for a postseason berth continued this winter with an early acquisition of veteran Derek Lowe.

Due to their expectations to contend in the AL Central and for a postseason berth, the spring training battle between Jack Hannahan and Lonnie Chisenhall for the starting third baseman role this year is incredibly interesting. It pits an average guy in Hannahan (who offers little in terms of upside or, historically, offensive production) against a former top prospect in Chisenhall (who is inexperienced and struggled last year, but has legitimate upside).

Hannahan surprised many people last year, accumulating a career-high +2.4 WAR season largely on the strength of his plus-defense, despite spending the entire 2010 season in Triple-A with the Red Sox and Mariners. His offensive numbers also improved significantly from his previous two seasons in the big leagues. For the first time since 2007, he was league-average with the bat. His wRC+ was exactly 100, and the .308 BABIP suggests his performance was unaided by significant luck on balls in play. That suggests his improvements at the plate could be expected to continue into the upcoming season.

In terms of projection, the 32-year-old third baseman is what he is at this point. He provides one of the best gloves in the game at third base, has a decent walk rate, and can occasionally poke one out of the park. Significant improvement should not be expected at this point in his career.

Chisenhall, on the other hand, was the 25th-ranked prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America prior to the 2011 season. He only posted a .303 wOBA in his first 223 big league plate appearances last year, but much of that can likely be attributed to the expected struggles of a 22-year-old attempting to handle major league pitching for the first time in his career. His walk rate (3.6%) was significantly lower than his minor league averages, while his strikeout rate (22.0%) was worse than his minor league numbers.

The main culprit for those extreme shifts in plate discipline was a 42.3% O-Swing%. Only 14 of 355 players who had at least 200 plate appearances in 2011 swung at more pitches outside the zone. The Indians can reasonably expect his plate discipline to improve, however, as his O-Swing% in Triple-A last year was only 9.6% (via Minor League Central). Of course, minor league plate discipline numbers should be taken with a grain of salt, as the resources available in their parks are significantly inferior to their major league equivalents, but the vast difference between the 42.3% and 9.6% suggests a major shift in approach that would still exist with a reasonable margin for error taken into account.

So, who ultimately gets the Opening Day nod?

Manny Acta has stated that the race is entirely in Chisenhall’s hands this spring:
“He’s going to have to convince us that he’s the guy — that’s plain and simple,
Click to expand...
 
Too much for one screen........it froze up the browser on my work compute for a good 2 minutes while everything in the spoilers loaded.
 
Too much for one screen........it froze up the browser on my work compute for a good 2 minutes while everything in the spoilers loaded.
 
Is it really worth having one anymore?

It really only a 3 team race for the near future........astros will finish last in their last season in the NL ironically, then pirates, then cubs, then brewers then cardinals and the reds will win the division.........simple as that.
 
Is it really worth having one anymore?

It really only a 3 team race for the near future........astros will finish last in their last season in the NL ironically, then pirates, then cubs, then brewers then cardinals and the reds will win the division.........simple as that.
 
Speaking of Dan Haren, Venom:
Spoiler [+]
Out in Hollywood, or even out in Hollywood of Anaheim where the Angels play, it can be easy to slip under the radar if you’re no longer the “it
 
Speaking of Dan Haren, Venom:
Spoiler [+]
Out in Hollywood, or even out in Hollywood of Anaheim where the Angels play, it can be easy to slip under the radar if you’re no longer the “it
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Teheran is so filthy.

Him, Strasburg, Harper, Heyward and Delgado all playing in this game.
Click to expand...

Too bad my Nats aren't showing out, the Braves young guns however are shining
 
Originally Posted by Kevin Cleveland

Teheran is so filthy.

Him, Strasburg, Harper, Heyward and Delgado all playing in this game.
Click to expand...

Too bad my Nats aren't showing out, the Braves young guns however are shining
 
Status
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