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That ball was F****** HAMMERED. His batspeed is UNREAL. WOW.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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That ball was F****** HAMMERED. His batspeed is UNREAL. WOW.
mr marcus
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Nice hit Bryce
mr marcus
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Nice hit Bryce
jumpmanfromdabay
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Why do they continue to pitch to Kemp?
jumpmanfromdabay
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Why do they continue to pitch to Kemp?
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We really need Drew Storen back, this closer by committee nonsense isn't cutting it and the great starts our staff is putting together are going to waste because Davey Johnson doesn't know how to manage the bullpen.
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We really need Drew Storen back, this closer by committee nonsense isn't cutting it and the great starts our staff is putting together are going to waste because Davey Johnson doesn't know how to manage the bullpen.
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http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_20994821&v=3
La di da... let me just apathetically throw the ball in and can a dude at third.
La di da... let me just apathetically throw the ball in and can a dude at third.
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http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_20994821&v=3
La di da... let me just apathetically throw the ball in and can a dude at third.
La di da... let me just apathetically throw the ball in and can a dude at third.
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He is on a mission to leave no doubt that he is the real MVP of the NL, he was robbed last year and he's pissed.Originally Posted by JumpmanFromDaBay
Why do they continue to pitch to Kemp?
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He is on a mission to leave no doubt that he is the real MVP of the NL, he was robbed last year and he's pissed.Originally Posted by JumpmanFromDaBay
Why do they continue to pitch to Kemp?
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Austin Jackson just missed making the surefire play of the year.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_21016519&v=3
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_21016519&v=3
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Austin Jackson just missed making the surefire play of the year.
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_21016519&v=3
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/...pp_copy_21016519&v=3
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I love those orange Orioles alternates
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I love those orange Orioles alternates
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Originally Posted by pacmagic2002
on MLB the show.......the angels put albert on the trade block. was traded to the rangers for a couple minor leaguers, micheal young and neftali perez
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Originally Posted by pacmagic2002
on MLB the show.......the angels put albert on the trade block. was traded to the rangers for a couple minor leaguers, micheal young and neftali perez
jumpmanfromdabay
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MadBum
jumpmanfromdabay
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MadBum
Prospects Tyler Moore, Pat Corbin Receive the Call.
With Trout Recall, Angels Make Half Of Right Decision.
Bryce Harper Promoted to Nationals.
Spoiler [+]
It’s been an exciting week for call-ups with the Top 2 prospects within the Top 100 pre-season prospect list getting the call to the Majors. A couple other interesting names have also received a promotion to the Majors this week for the first time, although their names carry much less fanfare than the likes of Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.
The demotion of Josh Collmenter from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Arizona is not a surprise. However, the prospect tapped with replacing him in the rotation may be. Southpaw rookie Pat Corbin, 22, was off to a very nice start in double-A, although he doesn’t possess the same ceiling as fellow top prospects Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. Prior to the season Corbin was ranked sixth on FanGraphs’ Top 15 prospect list for the Diamondbacks, while Bauer was first and Skaggs was third behind the now-traded Jarrod Parker.
Corbin commands his three-pitch repertoire well for his age and experience level, which helps his average fastball play up. For him to succeed in the Majors – and especially in his potent new home ball park – he’ll have to do a better job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Right-handed hitters continue to hit him much better than lefties so the development of his changeup is also important.
Corbin should be an immediate upgrade over Collmenter but he may not be ready to assume a permanent role at the big league level. He’ll officially be added to the 25-man roster on Monday and will make the start against Miami and veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle. The rookie may simply be keeping the spot warm for the eventual promotion of Bauer or Skaggs, or for the return of Daniel Hudson who’s currently on the disabled list with a shoulder impingement.
The former 16th round draft pick out of Mississippi State does not come with the ‘top prospect’ label but it’s hard to argue with his power (.262 ISO rate in ’11) and he definitely deserves a shot in Washington. A career .286 hitter in the minors, Moore wil likely be more in the .230-.250 range at the big league level with his current approach at the plate. He’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk much at all. His propensity for the strikeout (24.8% in ’11) will keep the batting average, and his overall effectiveness, down.
Ultimately he may end up as a platoon player or a right-handed bat off the bench, especially if he cannot improve his two-strike approach, but he definitely has value if he continues to slaughter southpaws at the big league level. Moore will battle two veteran left-handed hitters, Adam LaRoche and Chad Tracy, for playing time. He takes the place of injured veteran infielder Mark DeRosa on the 25-man roster.
The demotion of Josh Collmenter from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Arizona is not a surprise. However, the prospect tapped with replacing him in the rotation may be. Southpaw rookie Pat Corbin, 22, was off to a very nice start in double-A, although he doesn’t possess the same ceiling as fellow top prospects Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. Prior to the season Corbin was ranked sixth on FanGraphs’ Top 15 prospect list for the Diamondbacks, while Bauer was first and Skaggs was third behind the now-traded Jarrod Parker.
Corbin commands his three-pitch repertoire well for his age and experience level, which helps his average fastball play up. For him to succeed in the Majors – and especially in his potent new home ball park – he’ll have to do a better job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Right-handed hitters continue to hit him much better than lefties so the development of his changeup is also important.
Corbin should be an immediate upgrade over Collmenter but he may not be ready to assume a permanent role at the big league level. He’ll officially be added to the 25-man roster on Monday and will make the start against Miami and veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle. The rookie may simply be keeping the spot warm for the eventual promotion of Bauer or Skaggs, or for the return of Daniel Hudson who’s currently on the disabled list with a shoulder impingement.
* * *
Tyler Moore, 25, is a right-handed mashing first baseman. Between 2010 and 2011 he smashed 62 home runs while playing at both high-A and double-A. His home run prowess continued into 2012 with his promotion to triple-A where he slugged another seven home runs in just 22 games. Moore did not appear on the FanGraphs pre-season Top 15 prospect list for the Nationals organization and has not made the list in any of the past three seasons.The former 16th round draft pick out of Mississippi State does not come with the ‘top prospect’ label but it’s hard to argue with his power (.262 ISO rate in ’11) and he definitely deserves a shot in Washington. A career .286 hitter in the minors, Moore wil likely be more in the .230-.250 range at the big league level with his current approach at the plate. He’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk much at all. His propensity for the strikeout (24.8% in ’11) will keep the batting average, and his overall effectiveness, down.
Ultimately he may end up as a platoon player or a right-handed bat off the bench, especially if he cannot improve his two-strike approach, but he definitely has value if he continues to slaughter southpaws at the big league level. Moore will battle two veteran left-handed hitters, Adam LaRoche and Chad Tracy, for playing time. He takes the place of injured veteran infielder Mark DeRosa on the 25-man roster.
With Trout Recall, Angels Make Half Of Right Decision.
Spoiler [+]
At 6-14, the Angels enter play today tied with the Royals for the second-worst record in baseball, and at -12 runs, they have the eighth-worst run differential as well. They have lost eight of 10, including five straight, with the last two being of the walk-off variety. As such, the team is in desperate search of a spark, and on Friday night they hope they found it by calling up the one player who should have been with the team all along in Mike Trout. Unfortunately, the Angels roster is now misshapen, thanks to the fact that Anaheim cut the wrong player in order to get Trout to the Majors.
In Spring Training, the Angels used a pair of excuses to ship Trout back to the Minors. One was that he battled a virus and lost some weight, with the other potentially being more serious — he had shoulder tendinitis. But since Trout went out and clubbed four doubles, five triples and a homer in his first 20 games at Salt Lake, it seems his shoulder is just fine and dandy. The real reason he was sent down was that the Angels had a conundrum on the corners, and since he is the rookie, he drew the short end of the stick. And he would have likely continued to draw that short end had the Angels started strong. After all, it took a five-game losing streak to get him called up, despite the fact that he was hitting over .400 in the Minors.
Now, some of that batting average is likely attributable to the Pacific Coast League’s hitting-friendly environment, but it’s important to note that Trout’s stats still placed among the league leaders. He currently ranks seventh in wOBA, fourth in speed score and 24th in BB%. It took the Angels a little while to come around, but now that he is back up in the Majors, they aren’t being shy with him — Trout is hitting leadoff today. He is befitting of such a role because outside of Chris Iannetta and Albert Pujols, Trout may be the most patient hitter on the team. But while Trout should immediately make the Angels a better team, Anaheim hamstrung themselves by cutting the wrong player.
To make room for Trout the Angels released Bobby Abreu. This was one of the more telegraphed moves of the season. The Angels have not been shy about trying to find a new team for Abreu, and at one point had a deal to ship Abreu to the Indians, though it fell apart over how much of Abreu’s salary Anaheim would eat. But while it was a telegraphed move, it was also the wrong one. Whether or not you are of the opinion that there is anything left to salvage of Vernon Wells’ career or not, he is now completely redundant on Anaheim’s roster. Today, Wells will ride the pine, with Trout, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter starting from left to right in the outfield. You’ll notice something about those three players, and that is that like Wells, they’re all right-handed hitters.
When Wells was platooning with Abreu, it made sense, since Abreu is a left-handed hitter. They could easily swap in and out of the lineup based on matchups. Wells no longer has that luxury. And while Wells still hits lefties well, none of the three outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart has demonstrated a deficiency against lefties. Kendrys Morales has had troubles against lefties in the past, but if he needs a day off against a lefty, Mark Trumbo can stand in for him, with one of the Angels’ better fielders manning third base. Wells also isn’t going to be valuable as a pinch hitter. For starters, it’s a role with which he is almost completely unfamiliar — he has just 10 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in his 14-season career. Second, Wells is simply too aggressive to be a good fit for the role. A pinch hitter needs to be able to come in and see a couple of pitches to get his bearings and work a good at bat, and Wells doesn’t do that. So far this season, he has seen just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks 148th out of 194 American League hitters. His BB/K is no different — his paltry 0.15 mark is 15th-worst in the game. And while the samples for this season are small, it’s not like past years have been much different — Wells BB/K last year was 0.23, and his career-best mark is 0.63.
Abreu, on the other hand, is not only the better hitter — his wOBA last season bettered Wells’ by 40 points — but he is also a perfect fit as a pinch hitter. Thanks to his time in the National League, he has pinch hit far more frequently during his career than has Wells, and his hitting profile fits the role of one much better. While Wells topped out at 0.63 BB/K, Abreu has had a BB/K of .63 or better in each of the last 14 seasons. He is at just 0.40 so far this year, but then he’s only had 27 plate appearances. And Abreu also sees a lot more pitches — his 4.30 P/PA ranks 22nd best in the AL right now. And again, since he is a left-handed hitter, he would be easier to sub in for one of the outfielders on days when they might need a breather. To take that one step further, by keeping Wells, the Angels now have no solely left-handed hitter on their active roster; they have nine right-handed hitters and four switch hitters. Abreu would have helped balance both the outfield and the entire roster better than does Wells.
While it may have taken 20 games too many, the Angels were right to get Mike Trout back to the bigs, as he will almost assuredly be one of the Angels’ three best outfielders from here on out. However, in cutting Bobby Abreu instead of Vernon Wells, the Angels have a misshapen roster that is at a tactical disadvantage in the late innings. That might be defensible if Wells was the better player overall, but he isn’t. Yes, the Angels still owe Wells a lot of money, but that is a sunk cost. By choosing to keep him and his contract over Abreu, Anaheim has not only done themselves a disservice, but potentially one to Trout as well, as he may have to look over his shoulder at Wells after every bad game.
In Spring Training, the Angels used a pair of excuses to ship Trout back to the Minors. One was that he battled a virus and lost some weight, with the other potentially being more serious — he had shoulder tendinitis. But since Trout went out and clubbed four doubles, five triples and a homer in his first 20 games at Salt Lake, it seems his shoulder is just fine and dandy. The real reason he was sent down was that the Angels had a conundrum on the corners, and since he is the rookie, he drew the short end of the stick. And he would have likely continued to draw that short end had the Angels started strong. After all, it took a five-game losing streak to get him called up, despite the fact that he was hitting over .400 in the Minors.
Now, some of that batting average is likely attributable to the Pacific Coast League’s hitting-friendly environment, but it’s important to note that Trout’s stats still placed among the league leaders. He currently ranks seventh in wOBA, fourth in speed score and 24th in BB%. It took the Angels a little while to come around, but now that he is back up in the Majors, they aren’t being shy with him — Trout is hitting leadoff today. He is befitting of such a role because outside of Chris Iannetta and Albert Pujols, Trout may be the most patient hitter on the team. But while Trout should immediately make the Angels a better team, Anaheim hamstrung themselves by cutting the wrong player.
To make room for Trout the Angels released Bobby Abreu. This was one of the more telegraphed moves of the season. The Angels have not been shy about trying to find a new team for Abreu, and at one point had a deal to ship Abreu to the Indians, though it fell apart over how much of Abreu’s salary Anaheim would eat. But while it was a telegraphed move, it was also the wrong one. Whether or not you are of the opinion that there is anything left to salvage of Vernon Wells’ career or not, he is now completely redundant on Anaheim’s roster. Today, Wells will ride the pine, with Trout, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter starting from left to right in the outfield. You’ll notice something about those three players, and that is that like Wells, they’re all right-handed hitters.
When Wells was platooning with Abreu, it made sense, since Abreu is a left-handed hitter. They could easily swap in and out of the lineup based on matchups. Wells no longer has that luxury. And while Wells still hits lefties well, none of the three outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart has demonstrated a deficiency against lefties. Kendrys Morales has had troubles against lefties in the past, but if he needs a day off against a lefty, Mark Trumbo can stand in for him, with one of the Angels’ better fielders manning third base. Wells also isn’t going to be valuable as a pinch hitter. For starters, it’s a role with which he is almost completely unfamiliar — he has just 10 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in his 14-season career. Second, Wells is simply too aggressive to be a good fit for the role. A pinch hitter needs to be able to come in and see a couple of pitches to get his bearings and work a good at bat, and Wells doesn’t do that. So far this season, he has seen just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks 148th out of 194 American League hitters. His BB/K is no different — his paltry 0.15 mark is 15th-worst in the game. And while the samples for this season are small, it’s not like past years have been much different — Wells BB/K last year was 0.23, and his career-best mark is 0.63.
Abreu, on the other hand, is not only the better hitter — his wOBA last season bettered Wells’ by 40 points — but he is also a perfect fit as a pinch hitter. Thanks to his time in the National League, he has pinch hit far more frequently during his career than has Wells, and his hitting profile fits the role of one much better. While Wells topped out at 0.63 BB/K, Abreu has had a BB/K of .63 or better in each of the last 14 seasons. He is at just 0.40 so far this year, but then he’s only had 27 plate appearances. And Abreu also sees a lot more pitches — his 4.30 P/PA ranks 22nd best in the AL right now. And again, since he is a left-handed hitter, he would be easier to sub in for one of the outfielders on days when they might need a breather. To take that one step further, by keeping Wells, the Angels now have no solely left-handed hitter on their active roster; they have nine right-handed hitters and four switch hitters. Abreu would have helped balance both the outfield and the entire roster better than does Wells.
While it may have taken 20 games too many, the Angels were right to get Mike Trout back to the bigs, as he will almost assuredly be one of the Angels’ three best outfielders from here on out. However, in cutting Bobby Abreu instead of Vernon Wells, the Angels have a misshapen roster that is at a tactical disadvantage in the late innings. That might be defensible if Wells was the better player overall, but he isn’t. Yes, the Angels still owe Wells a lot of money, but that is a sunk cost. By choosing to keep him and his contract over Abreu, Anaheim has not only done themselves a disservice, but potentially one to Trout as well, as he may have to look over his shoulder at Wells after every bad game.
Bryce Harper Promoted to Nationals.
Spoiler [+]
It wasn’t the way the Nationals envisioned it, but nevertheless, Bryce Harper has graduated to The Show. With Ryan Zimmerman heading to the disabled list for the second straight season, the team was looking to put an impact bat, as well as perhaps shift the focus away from Zimmerman’s injury, and thus Harper gets the call.
The reason that it has the chance to come off as little more than a publicity stunt is that Harper isn’t hitting all that well so far this season. His .313 wOBA ranks just fifth out of the seven Syracuse Sky Chiefs who have accumulated at least 40 plate appearances. This is actually sort of a continuation of his production at Double-A from last year, where Harper had just a .332 wOBA. He did dominate the Arizona Fall League last year, but in the regular season, he hasn’t hit well since last July.
Since Harper may soon find himself back in the Minors if Zimmerman only misses the minimum, the team could have certainly could have gone with one of its hot hands. Tyler Moore, Corey Brown and Mark Teahen all have experience in the outfield and are sporting .422, .389 and .365 wOBA’s at Syracuse, respectively. Teahen in particular would have been an easy call to make, since he is a Major League veteran. Doing so would have allowed the team to avoid starting Harper’s service time and arbitration clocks, which would seem like an important consideration if this is truly a temporary situation. Even more players will qualify for Super Two arbitration status under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, and there are less top prospects in the Majors right now than there have been at this point in the past two seasons. Of Marc Hulet’s top 30 prospects this year, only Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Devin Mesoraco and Jarrod Parker are in the Majors. Then again, perhaps Zimmerman’s injury is a long-term concern, as Will Carroll suggested earlier today.
And just because Harper hasn’t hit well in 55 games between Double and Triple-A doesn’t mean that he doesn’t deserve the call-up. He has been young for every level, and at just 19 years old, he will be the youngest player in the Majors, displacing the 21-year-old Drew Hutchison — whose reign as the game’s youngest player lasted just eight days. And as Harper showed as an amateur, in A ball and the AFL, there is legitimate thunder in his bat. In addition, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was in Syracuse to scout the Sky Chiefs earlier this week, and came away impressed with Harper. The error bars for his performance are likely to be wide, but with Washington expected to play him every day starting tomorrow, he will have an opportunity to get his bearings. And even if he doesn’t hit, he should be an asset in the field, as his speed and arm have graded out as plus or better by scouts.
Luckily though, Harper doesn’t have a tall mountain to climb to be a useful hitter for the Nats. To date, Washington has one of the worst offenses in the game. Its .290 wOBA ranks 24th in the game, and is tied for 12th in the National League. The average NL wOBA is just .306, but Washington’s left fielders have been far, far worse than that. Xavier Nady, who has started 10 games in left, is sporting a downright odious .192 wOBA, and he’s been the club’s best left fielder. Mark DeRosa, who has started six of the other nine games in left, is “hitting
The reason that it has the chance to come off as little more than a publicity stunt is that Harper isn’t hitting all that well so far this season. His .313 wOBA ranks just fifth out of the seven Syracuse Sky Chiefs who have accumulated at least 40 plate appearances. This is actually sort of a continuation of his production at Double-A from last year, where Harper had just a .332 wOBA. He did dominate the Arizona Fall League last year, but in the regular season, he hasn’t hit well since last July.
Since Harper may soon find himself back in the Minors if Zimmerman only misses the minimum, the team could have certainly could have gone with one of its hot hands. Tyler Moore, Corey Brown and Mark Teahen all have experience in the outfield and are sporting .422, .389 and .365 wOBA’s at Syracuse, respectively. Teahen in particular would have been an easy call to make, since he is a Major League veteran. Doing so would have allowed the team to avoid starting Harper’s service time and arbitration clocks, which would seem like an important consideration if this is truly a temporary situation. Even more players will qualify for Super Two arbitration status under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, and there are less top prospects in the Majors right now than there have been at this point in the past two seasons. Of Marc Hulet’s top 30 prospects this year, only Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Devin Mesoraco and Jarrod Parker are in the Majors. Then again, perhaps Zimmerman’s injury is a long-term concern, as Will Carroll suggested earlier today.
And just because Harper hasn’t hit well in 55 games between Double and Triple-A doesn’t mean that he doesn’t deserve the call-up. He has been young for every level, and at just 19 years old, he will be the youngest player in the Majors, displacing the 21-year-old Drew Hutchison — whose reign as the game’s youngest player lasted just eight days. And as Harper showed as an amateur, in A ball and the AFL, there is legitimate thunder in his bat. In addition, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was in Syracuse to scout the Sky Chiefs earlier this week, and came away impressed with Harper. The error bars for his performance are likely to be wide, but with Washington expected to play him every day starting tomorrow, he will have an opportunity to get his bearings. And even if he doesn’t hit, he should be an asset in the field, as his speed and arm have graded out as plus or better by scouts.
Luckily though, Harper doesn’t have a tall mountain to climb to be a useful hitter for the Nats. To date, Washington has one of the worst offenses in the game. Its .290 wOBA ranks 24th in the game, and is tied for 12th in the National League. The average NL wOBA is just .306, but Washington’s left fielders have been far, far worse than that. Xavier Nady, who has started 10 games in left, is sporting a downright odious .192 wOBA, and he’s been the club’s best left fielder. Mark DeRosa, who has started six of the other nine games in left, is “hitting
Prospects Tyler Moore, Pat Corbin Receive the Call.
With Trout Recall, Angels Make Half Of Right Decision.
Bryce Harper Promoted to Nationals.
Spoiler [+]
It’s been an exciting week for call-ups with the Top 2 prospects within the Top 100 pre-season prospect list getting the call to the Majors. A couple other interesting names have also received a promotion to the Majors this week for the first time, although their names carry much less fanfare than the likes of Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals.
The demotion of Josh Collmenter from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Arizona is not a surprise. However, the prospect tapped with replacing him in the rotation may be. Southpaw rookie Pat Corbin, 22, was off to a very nice start in double-A, although he doesn’t possess the same ceiling as fellow top prospects Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. Prior to the season Corbin was ranked sixth on FanGraphs’ Top 15 prospect list for the Diamondbacks, while Bauer was first and Skaggs was third behind the now-traded Jarrod Parker.
Corbin commands his three-pitch repertoire well for his age and experience level, which helps his average fastball play up. For him to succeed in the Majors – and especially in his potent new home ball park – he’ll have to do a better job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Right-handed hitters continue to hit him much better than lefties so the development of his changeup is also important.
Corbin should be an immediate upgrade over Collmenter but he may not be ready to assume a permanent role at the big league level. He’ll officially be added to the 25-man roster on Monday and will make the start against Miami and veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle. The rookie may simply be keeping the spot warm for the eventual promotion of Bauer or Skaggs, or for the return of Daniel Hudson who’s currently on the disabled list with a shoulder impingement.
The former 16th round draft pick out of Mississippi State does not come with the ‘top prospect’ label but it’s hard to argue with his power (.262 ISO rate in ’11) and he definitely deserves a shot in Washington. A career .286 hitter in the minors, Moore wil likely be more in the .230-.250 range at the big league level with his current approach at the plate. He’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk much at all. His propensity for the strikeout (24.8% in ’11) will keep the batting average, and his overall effectiveness, down.
Ultimately he may end up as a platoon player or a right-handed bat off the bench, especially if he cannot improve his two-strike approach, but he definitely has value if he continues to slaughter southpaws at the big league level. Moore will battle two veteran left-handed hitters, Adam LaRoche and Chad Tracy, for playing time. He takes the place of injured veteran infielder Mark DeRosa on the 25-man roster.
The demotion of Josh Collmenter from the starting rotation to the bullpen in Arizona is not a surprise. However, the prospect tapped with replacing him in the rotation may be. Southpaw rookie Pat Corbin, 22, was off to a very nice start in double-A, although he doesn’t possess the same ceiling as fellow top prospects Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs. Prior to the season Corbin was ranked sixth on FanGraphs’ Top 15 prospect list for the Diamondbacks, while Bauer was first and Skaggs was third behind the now-traded Jarrod Parker.
Corbin commands his three-pitch repertoire well for his age and experience level, which helps his average fastball play up. For him to succeed in the Majors – and especially in his potent new home ball park – he’ll have to do a better job of keeping the ball down in the strike zone. Right-handed hitters continue to hit him much better than lefties so the development of his changeup is also important.
Corbin should be an immediate upgrade over Collmenter but he may not be ready to assume a permanent role at the big league level. He’ll officially be added to the 25-man roster on Monday and will make the start against Miami and veteran southpaw Mark Buehrle. The rookie may simply be keeping the spot warm for the eventual promotion of Bauer or Skaggs, or for the return of Daniel Hudson who’s currently on the disabled list with a shoulder impingement.
* * *
Tyler Moore, 25, is a right-handed mashing first baseman. Between 2010 and 2011 he smashed 62 home runs while playing at both high-A and double-A. His home run prowess continued into 2012 with his promotion to triple-A where he slugged another seven home runs in just 22 games. Moore did not appear on the FanGraphs pre-season Top 15 prospect list for the Nationals organization and has not made the list in any of the past three seasons.The former 16th round draft pick out of Mississippi State does not come with the ‘top prospect’ label but it’s hard to argue with his power (.262 ISO rate in ’11) and he definitely deserves a shot in Washington. A career .286 hitter in the minors, Moore wil likely be more in the .230-.250 range at the big league level with his current approach at the plate. He’s overly aggressive and doesn’t walk much at all. His propensity for the strikeout (24.8% in ’11) will keep the batting average, and his overall effectiveness, down.
Ultimately he may end up as a platoon player or a right-handed bat off the bench, especially if he cannot improve his two-strike approach, but he definitely has value if he continues to slaughter southpaws at the big league level. Moore will battle two veteran left-handed hitters, Adam LaRoche and Chad Tracy, for playing time. He takes the place of injured veteran infielder Mark DeRosa on the 25-man roster.
With Trout Recall, Angels Make Half Of Right Decision.
Spoiler [+]
At 6-14, the Angels enter play today tied with the Royals for the second-worst record in baseball, and at -12 runs, they have the eighth-worst run differential as well. They have lost eight of 10, including five straight, with the last two being of the walk-off variety. As such, the team is in desperate search of a spark, and on Friday night they hope they found it by calling up the one player who should have been with the team all along in Mike Trout. Unfortunately, the Angels roster is now misshapen, thanks to the fact that Anaheim cut the wrong player in order to get Trout to the Majors.
In Spring Training, the Angels used a pair of excuses to ship Trout back to the Minors. One was that he battled a virus and lost some weight, with the other potentially being more serious — he had shoulder tendinitis. But since Trout went out and clubbed four doubles, five triples and a homer in his first 20 games at Salt Lake, it seems his shoulder is just fine and dandy. The real reason he was sent down was that the Angels had a conundrum on the corners, and since he is the rookie, he drew the short end of the stick. And he would have likely continued to draw that short end had the Angels started strong. After all, it took a five-game losing streak to get him called up, despite the fact that he was hitting over .400 in the Minors.
Now, some of that batting average is likely attributable to the Pacific Coast League’s hitting-friendly environment, but it’s important to note that Trout’s stats still placed among the league leaders. He currently ranks seventh in wOBA, fourth in speed score and 24th in BB%. It took the Angels a little while to come around, but now that he is back up in the Majors, they aren’t being shy with him — Trout is hitting leadoff today. He is befitting of such a role because outside of Chris Iannetta and Albert Pujols, Trout may be the most patient hitter on the team. But while Trout should immediately make the Angels a better team, Anaheim hamstrung themselves by cutting the wrong player.
To make room for Trout the Angels released Bobby Abreu. This was one of the more telegraphed moves of the season. The Angels have not been shy about trying to find a new team for Abreu, and at one point had a deal to ship Abreu to the Indians, though it fell apart over how much of Abreu’s salary Anaheim would eat. But while it was a telegraphed move, it was also the wrong one. Whether or not you are of the opinion that there is anything left to salvage of Vernon Wells’ career or not, he is now completely redundant on Anaheim’s roster. Today, Wells will ride the pine, with Trout, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter starting from left to right in the outfield. You’ll notice something about those three players, and that is that like Wells, they’re all right-handed hitters.
When Wells was platooning with Abreu, it made sense, since Abreu is a left-handed hitter. They could easily swap in and out of the lineup based on matchups. Wells no longer has that luxury. And while Wells still hits lefties well, none of the three outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart has demonstrated a deficiency against lefties. Kendrys Morales has had troubles against lefties in the past, but if he needs a day off against a lefty, Mark Trumbo can stand in for him, with one of the Angels’ better fielders manning third base. Wells also isn’t going to be valuable as a pinch hitter. For starters, it’s a role with which he is almost completely unfamiliar — he has just 10 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in his 14-season career. Second, Wells is simply too aggressive to be a good fit for the role. A pinch hitter needs to be able to come in and see a couple of pitches to get his bearings and work a good at bat, and Wells doesn’t do that. So far this season, he has seen just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks 148th out of 194 American League hitters. His BB/K is no different — his paltry 0.15 mark is 15th-worst in the game. And while the samples for this season are small, it’s not like past years have been much different — Wells BB/K last year was 0.23, and his career-best mark is 0.63.
Abreu, on the other hand, is not only the better hitter — his wOBA last season bettered Wells’ by 40 points — but he is also a perfect fit as a pinch hitter. Thanks to his time in the National League, he has pinch hit far more frequently during his career than has Wells, and his hitting profile fits the role of one much better. While Wells topped out at 0.63 BB/K, Abreu has had a BB/K of .63 or better in each of the last 14 seasons. He is at just 0.40 so far this year, but then he’s only had 27 plate appearances. And Abreu also sees a lot more pitches — his 4.30 P/PA ranks 22nd best in the AL right now. And again, since he is a left-handed hitter, he would be easier to sub in for one of the outfielders on days when they might need a breather. To take that one step further, by keeping Wells, the Angels now have no solely left-handed hitter on their active roster; they have nine right-handed hitters and four switch hitters. Abreu would have helped balance both the outfield and the entire roster better than does Wells.
While it may have taken 20 games too many, the Angels were right to get Mike Trout back to the bigs, as he will almost assuredly be one of the Angels’ three best outfielders from here on out. However, in cutting Bobby Abreu instead of Vernon Wells, the Angels have a misshapen roster that is at a tactical disadvantage in the late innings. That might be defensible if Wells was the better player overall, but he isn’t. Yes, the Angels still owe Wells a lot of money, but that is a sunk cost. By choosing to keep him and his contract over Abreu, Anaheim has not only done themselves a disservice, but potentially one to Trout as well, as he may have to look over his shoulder at Wells after every bad game.
In Spring Training, the Angels used a pair of excuses to ship Trout back to the Minors. One was that he battled a virus and lost some weight, with the other potentially being more serious — he had shoulder tendinitis. But since Trout went out and clubbed four doubles, five triples and a homer in his first 20 games at Salt Lake, it seems his shoulder is just fine and dandy. The real reason he was sent down was that the Angels had a conundrum on the corners, and since he is the rookie, he drew the short end of the stick. And he would have likely continued to draw that short end had the Angels started strong. After all, it took a five-game losing streak to get him called up, despite the fact that he was hitting over .400 in the Minors.
Now, some of that batting average is likely attributable to the Pacific Coast League’s hitting-friendly environment, but it’s important to note that Trout’s stats still placed among the league leaders. He currently ranks seventh in wOBA, fourth in speed score and 24th in BB%. It took the Angels a little while to come around, but now that he is back up in the Majors, they aren’t being shy with him — Trout is hitting leadoff today. He is befitting of such a role because outside of Chris Iannetta and Albert Pujols, Trout may be the most patient hitter on the team. But while Trout should immediately make the Angels a better team, Anaheim hamstrung themselves by cutting the wrong player.
To make room for Trout the Angels released Bobby Abreu. This was one of the more telegraphed moves of the season. The Angels have not been shy about trying to find a new team for Abreu, and at one point had a deal to ship Abreu to the Indians, though it fell apart over how much of Abreu’s salary Anaheim would eat. But while it was a telegraphed move, it was also the wrong one. Whether or not you are of the opinion that there is anything left to salvage of Vernon Wells’ career or not, he is now completely redundant on Anaheim’s roster. Today, Wells will ride the pine, with Trout, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter starting from left to right in the outfield. You’ll notice something about those three players, and that is that like Wells, they’re all right-handed hitters.
When Wells was platooning with Abreu, it made sense, since Abreu is a left-handed hitter. They could easily swap in and out of the lineup based on matchups. Wells no longer has that luxury. And while Wells still hits lefties well, none of the three outfielders ahead of him on the depth chart has demonstrated a deficiency against lefties. Kendrys Morales has had troubles against lefties in the past, but if he needs a day off against a lefty, Mark Trumbo can stand in for him, with one of the Angels’ better fielders manning third base. Wells also isn’t going to be valuable as a pinch hitter. For starters, it’s a role with which he is almost completely unfamiliar — he has just 10 plate appearances as a pinch hitter in his 14-season career. Second, Wells is simply too aggressive to be a good fit for the role. A pinch hitter needs to be able to come in and see a couple of pitches to get his bearings and work a good at bat, and Wells doesn’t do that. So far this season, he has seen just 3.59 pitches per plate appearance, which ranks 148th out of 194 American League hitters. His BB/K is no different — his paltry 0.15 mark is 15th-worst in the game. And while the samples for this season are small, it’s not like past years have been much different — Wells BB/K last year was 0.23, and his career-best mark is 0.63.
Abreu, on the other hand, is not only the better hitter — his wOBA last season bettered Wells’ by 40 points — but he is also a perfect fit as a pinch hitter. Thanks to his time in the National League, he has pinch hit far more frequently during his career than has Wells, and his hitting profile fits the role of one much better. While Wells topped out at 0.63 BB/K, Abreu has had a BB/K of .63 or better in each of the last 14 seasons. He is at just 0.40 so far this year, but then he’s only had 27 plate appearances. And Abreu also sees a lot more pitches — his 4.30 P/PA ranks 22nd best in the AL right now. And again, since he is a left-handed hitter, he would be easier to sub in for one of the outfielders on days when they might need a breather. To take that one step further, by keeping Wells, the Angels now have no solely left-handed hitter on their active roster; they have nine right-handed hitters and four switch hitters. Abreu would have helped balance both the outfield and the entire roster better than does Wells.
While it may have taken 20 games too many, the Angels were right to get Mike Trout back to the bigs, as he will almost assuredly be one of the Angels’ three best outfielders from here on out. However, in cutting Bobby Abreu instead of Vernon Wells, the Angels have a misshapen roster that is at a tactical disadvantage in the late innings. That might be defensible if Wells was the better player overall, but he isn’t. Yes, the Angels still owe Wells a lot of money, but that is a sunk cost. By choosing to keep him and his contract over Abreu, Anaheim has not only done themselves a disservice, but potentially one to Trout as well, as he may have to look over his shoulder at Wells after every bad game.
Bryce Harper Promoted to Nationals.
Spoiler [+]
It wasn’t the way the Nationals envisioned it, but nevertheless, Bryce Harper has graduated to The Show. With Ryan Zimmerman heading to the disabled list for the second straight season, the team was looking to put an impact bat, as well as perhaps shift the focus away from Zimmerman’s injury, and thus Harper gets the call.
The reason that it has the chance to come off as little more than a publicity stunt is that Harper isn’t hitting all that well so far this season. His .313 wOBA ranks just fifth out of the seven Syracuse Sky Chiefs who have accumulated at least 40 plate appearances. This is actually sort of a continuation of his production at Double-A from last year, where Harper had just a .332 wOBA. He did dominate the Arizona Fall League last year, but in the regular season, he hasn’t hit well since last July.
Since Harper may soon find himself back in the Minors if Zimmerman only misses the minimum, the team could have certainly could have gone with one of its hot hands. Tyler Moore, Corey Brown and Mark Teahen all have experience in the outfield and are sporting .422, .389 and .365 wOBA’s at Syracuse, respectively. Teahen in particular would have been an easy call to make, since he is a Major League veteran. Doing so would have allowed the team to avoid starting Harper’s service time and arbitration clocks, which would seem like an important consideration if this is truly a temporary situation. Even more players will qualify for Super Two arbitration status under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, and there are less top prospects in the Majors right now than there have been at this point in the past two seasons. Of Marc Hulet’s top 30 prospects this year, only Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Devin Mesoraco and Jarrod Parker are in the Majors. Then again, perhaps Zimmerman’s injury is a long-term concern, as Will Carroll suggested earlier today.
And just because Harper hasn’t hit well in 55 games between Double and Triple-A doesn’t mean that he doesn’t deserve the call-up. He has been young for every level, and at just 19 years old, he will be the youngest player in the Majors, displacing the 21-year-old Drew Hutchison — whose reign as the game’s youngest player lasted just eight days. And as Harper showed as an amateur, in A ball and the AFL, there is legitimate thunder in his bat. In addition, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was in Syracuse to scout the Sky Chiefs earlier this week, and came away impressed with Harper. The error bars for his performance are likely to be wide, but with Washington expected to play him every day starting tomorrow, he will have an opportunity to get his bearings. And even if he doesn’t hit, he should be an asset in the field, as his speed and arm have graded out as plus or better by scouts.
Luckily though, Harper doesn’t have a tall mountain to climb to be a useful hitter for the Nats. To date, Washington has one of the worst offenses in the game. Its .290 wOBA ranks 24th in the game, and is tied for 12th in the National League. The average NL wOBA is just .306, but Washington’s left fielders have been far, far worse than that. Xavier Nady, who has started 10 games in left, is sporting a downright odious .192 wOBA, and he’s been the club’s best left fielder. Mark DeRosa, who has started six of the other nine games in left, is “hitting
The reason that it has the chance to come off as little more than a publicity stunt is that Harper isn’t hitting all that well so far this season. His .313 wOBA ranks just fifth out of the seven Syracuse Sky Chiefs who have accumulated at least 40 plate appearances. This is actually sort of a continuation of his production at Double-A from last year, where Harper had just a .332 wOBA. He did dominate the Arizona Fall League last year, but in the regular season, he hasn’t hit well since last July.
Since Harper may soon find himself back in the Minors if Zimmerman only misses the minimum, the team could have certainly could have gone with one of its hot hands. Tyler Moore, Corey Brown and Mark Teahen all have experience in the outfield and are sporting .422, .389 and .365 wOBA’s at Syracuse, respectively. Teahen in particular would have been an easy call to make, since he is a Major League veteran. Doing so would have allowed the team to avoid starting Harper’s service time and arbitration clocks, which would seem like an important consideration if this is truly a temporary situation. Even more players will qualify for Super Two arbitration status under the terms of the new collective bargaining agreement, and there are less top prospects in the Majors right now than there have been at this point in the past two seasons. Of Marc Hulet’s top 30 prospects this year, only Matt Moore, Jesus Montero, Devin Mesoraco and Jarrod Parker are in the Majors. Then again, perhaps Zimmerman’s injury is a long-term concern, as Will Carroll suggested earlier today.
And just because Harper hasn’t hit well in 55 games between Double and Triple-A doesn’t mean that he doesn’t deserve the call-up. He has been young for every level, and at just 19 years old, he will be the youngest player in the Majors, displacing the 21-year-old Drew Hutchison — whose reign as the game’s youngest player lasted just eight days. And as Harper showed as an amateur, in A ball and the AFL, there is legitimate thunder in his bat. In addition, Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo was in Syracuse to scout the Sky Chiefs earlier this week, and came away impressed with Harper. The error bars for his performance are likely to be wide, but with Washington expected to play him every day starting tomorrow, he will have an opportunity to get his bearings. And even if he doesn’t hit, he should be an asset in the field, as his speed and arm have graded out as plus or better by scouts.
Luckily though, Harper doesn’t have a tall mountain to climb to be a useful hitter for the Nats. To date, Washington has one of the worst offenses in the game. Its .290 wOBA ranks 24th in the game, and is tied for 12th in the National League. The average NL wOBA is just .306, but Washington’s left fielders have been far, far worse than that. Xavier Nady, who has started 10 games in left, is sporting a downright odious .192 wOBA, and he’s been the club’s best left fielder. Mark DeRosa, who has started six of the other nine games in left, is “hitting
A race for MLB's worst division.
A positive change for David Price.
Rays bucking offensive trend.
Appel still flirting with No. 1 status.
Top '12 for 2012: Arenado up to No. 2.
Temper Harper expectations.
Calling up Harper a risky move for Nats.
Triple Crown dreams for Kemp, Hamilton.
Spoiler [+]
A month of baseball is in the books, and we can see some trends starting to emerge now that all teams have played at least 12 percent of their schedules. And just as has been the case the past couple of seasons, the Central divisions are once again bringing up the rear. The question is, which division -- the AL or NL version -- is the worst in the game?
Both divisions make strong cases. For the season, the two easily have the worst average ranking in the ESPN Power Rankings, and this week Central teams occupy five of the bottom 10 spots in the rankings. In terms of average rank, the NL Central ranks slightly worse both this week and for the season, as well (see chart).
[h4]MLB's top divisions[/h4]
The average ranking of each division thus far this season in ESPN.com's MLB Power Rankings.
[table][tr][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Average rank
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
AL East
[/td][td]
10.52
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL East
[/td][td]
12.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL West
[/td][td]
15.45
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL West
[/td][td]
15.60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL Central
[/td][td]
17.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL Central
[/td][td]
19.73
[/td][/tr][/table]
Going back to last season though, the AL Central was slightly worse from an objective perspective. Looking at average wins above replacement per division, the AL Central finished last with an average team WAR of 35.5, while the NL Central came in next-to-last at 36.0. That's essentially a negligible difference, but the difference between the AL Central's minus-49.8 run differential was slightly larger than that of the NL Central, which had a minus-36.2 average run differential.
This year has been the same story.
Entering Sunday's action, the AL Central had an average WAR of 4.22 and an average run differential of minus-12.6, while the NL Central stood at 4.87 and minus-0.83, respectively. Only one team in the AL Central has a positive run differential, and at plus-3, the Chicago White Sox's differential is hardly exemplary. There isn't one team in the AL Central that would qualify as complete.
Chicago has enjoyed good pitching thus far, but even with the inevitable rebounds from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the team's hitting is still a problem. The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins have had average or better offenses, but their pitching has been poor. The Cleveland Indians have hit, but their fielding and pitching rank in the bottom third of the game. And while the Detroit Tigers had a bit of a breakdown this past week at the hands of the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, and should get back to pitching and hitting well fairly soon, the team's fielding will remain a weakness.
The NL Central is just as gloomy. The powerful Milwaukee Brewers -- who last season had one of the better pitching staffs in the game -- have allowed the most runs in the NL. And while they should rebound, they will have to work a little bit harder to do so now that Chris Narveson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn rotator cuff. The Houston Astros have actually hit and fielded at an average rate as a team, though Houston's .320 BABIP as a team -- and in particular the .435 and .385 marks that youngsters Jose Altuve and Jordan Schafer, respectively, are sporting -- indicate that regression is coming.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping runs off the board thanks to good pitching and fielding, but they have tallied two or fewer runs in more than half of their games this season. The Chicago Cubs aren't fielding poorly, but outside of Starlin Castro's stolen base explosion, little else has gone right for the North Siders. The Cincinnati Reds are pitching fairly well, but the team's fielding -- a big strength the past three seasons -- has been subpar in the early going, and the offense is essentially a three-man show. No one outside of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips has produced league-average numbers offensively for Cincy.
That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second this week. The Cardinals are the one team among the 11 Central teams that is chugging full-speed ahead on all cylinders, with a top-five offense and pitching staff and a top-10 group of fielders. But outside of their bizarre one-game series with the Miami Marlins to kick off the 2012 season, St. Louis has played only NL Central teams.
St. Louis has played 22 of its 23 games against teams in its division; the next closest team in terms of intra-divisions games, the San Diego Padres, has played 16 of its 23 games within its division. As a result, St. Louis' strength of schedule ranks just 24th. That is a definitive red flag, but it alone doesn't discredit the Cardinals, who haven't just been beating their NL Central foes, but have rather been beating up on them.
The club's expected winning percentage is first in baseball, it has won by six or more runs in six different games already, and overall St. Louis has scored the fourth most runs in the game. And with Lance Berkman and Allen Craig out for most or all of the month, the Cardinals have done so at less than full strength, but that may soon change, as the club could have both back in the fold by week's end.
So neither Central division has covered itself in glory thus far, and while teams like the Reds, Tigers and Brewers are not playing to their potential, the dregs of the two divisions will continue to drag them down. The Cardinals stand out as a beacon of light amongst a sea of mediocrity, however, and while their first out-of-division test won't come for another week, their play holds the NL Central high enough to keep the title of baseball's worst division firmly planted, once again, on the AL Central's mantle.
Both divisions make strong cases. For the season, the two easily have the worst average ranking in the ESPN Power Rankings, and this week Central teams occupy five of the bottom 10 spots in the rankings. In terms of average rank, the NL Central ranks slightly worse both this week and for the season, as well (see chart).
[h4]MLB's top divisions[/h4]
The average ranking of each division thus far this season in ESPN.com's MLB Power Rankings.
[table][tr][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Average rank
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
AL East
[/td][td]
10.52
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL East
[/td][td]
12.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL West
[/td][td]
15.45
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL West
[/td][td]
15.60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL Central
[/td][td]
17.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL Central
[/td][td]
19.73
[/td][/tr][/table]
Going back to last season though, the AL Central was slightly worse from an objective perspective. Looking at average wins above replacement per division, the AL Central finished last with an average team WAR of 35.5, while the NL Central came in next-to-last at 36.0. That's essentially a negligible difference, but the difference between the AL Central's minus-49.8 run differential was slightly larger than that of the NL Central, which had a minus-36.2 average run differential.
This year has been the same story.
Entering Sunday's action, the AL Central had an average WAR of 4.22 and an average run differential of minus-12.6, while the NL Central stood at 4.87 and minus-0.83, respectively. Only one team in the AL Central has a positive run differential, and at plus-3, the Chicago White Sox's differential is hardly exemplary. There isn't one team in the AL Central that would qualify as complete.
Chicago has enjoyed good pitching thus far, but even with the inevitable rebounds from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the team's hitting is still a problem. The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins have had average or better offenses, but their pitching has been poor. The Cleveland Indians have hit, but their fielding and pitching rank in the bottom third of the game. And while the Detroit Tigers had a bit of a breakdown this past week at the hands of the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, and should get back to pitching and hitting well fairly soon, the team's fielding will remain a weakness.
The NL Central is just as gloomy. The powerful Milwaukee Brewers -- who last season had one of the better pitching staffs in the game -- have allowed the most runs in the NL. And while they should rebound, they will have to work a little bit harder to do so now that Chris Narveson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn rotator cuff. The Houston Astros have actually hit and fielded at an average rate as a team, though Houston's .320 BABIP as a team -- and in particular the .435 and .385 marks that youngsters Jose Altuve and Jordan Schafer, respectively, are sporting -- indicate that regression is coming.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping runs off the board thanks to good pitching and fielding, but they have tallied two or fewer runs in more than half of their games this season. The Chicago Cubs aren't fielding poorly, but outside of Starlin Castro's stolen base explosion, little else has gone right for the North Siders. The Cincinnati Reds are pitching fairly well, but the team's fielding -- a big strength the past three seasons -- has been subpar in the early going, and the offense is essentially a three-man show. No one outside of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips has produced league-average numbers offensively for Cincy.
That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second this week. The Cardinals are the one team among the 11 Central teams that is chugging full-speed ahead on all cylinders, with a top-five offense and pitching staff and a top-10 group of fielders. But outside of their bizarre one-game series with the Miami Marlins to kick off the 2012 season, St. Louis has played only NL Central teams.
St. Louis has played 22 of its 23 games against teams in its division; the next closest team in terms of intra-divisions games, the San Diego Padres, has played 16 of its 23 games within its division. As a result, St. Louis' strength of schedule ranks just 24th. That is a definitive red flag, but it alone doesn't discredit the Cardinals, who haven't just been beating their NL Central foes, but have rather been beating up on them.
The club's expected winning percentage is first in baseball, it has won by six or more runs in six different games already, and overall St. Louis has scored the fourth most runs in the game. And with Lance Berkman and Allen Craig out for most or all of the month, the Cardinals have done so at less than full strength, but that may soon change, as the club could have both back in the fold by week's end.
So neither Central division has covered itself in glory thus far, and while teams like the Reds, Tigers and Brewers are not playing to their potential, the dregs of the two divisions will continue to drag them down. The Cardinals stand out as a beacon of light amongst a sea of mediocrity, however, and while their first out-of-division test won't come for another week, their play holds the NL Central high enough to keep the title of baseball's worst division firmly planted, once again, on the AL Central's mantle.
A positive change for David Price.
Spoiler [+]
ARLINGTON, Texas -- We had such great plans on "Sunday Night Baseball" to demonstrate baseball's trendsetters at work. The Tampa Bay Rays have taken the use of defensive shifts to the next level this year -- employing the alignments six times more than they did a year ago -- and the numbers show that other teams are following their lead.
But then the Rays used only one shift in their victory against the Texas Rangers on Sunday night, in a game that became more about David Price's recent trend of relying on -- and trusting -- a devastating changeup. The Tampa Bay left-hander went into the game winless in six decisions against the Rangers, with a 5.30 ERA, and in each instance in which he was in serious trouble last night, he steered grittily with his off-speed stuff.
Price had a 5-2 lead and had thrown 104 pitches as the bottom of the seventh inning began, and after Mike Napoli singled to lead off, Rays manager Joe Maddon could have relieved Price. Joel Peralta was warmed up and ready to go in the visitors' bullpen.
But Maddon stuck with Price to face Yorvit Torrealba, a noted fastball hitter, and Torrealba worked himself into what seemed to be a great situation to get a fastball: The count was full at 3-2, and if Price had walked Torrealba, he would have brought the tying run to the plate.
Price threw an excellent changeup, however, and Torrealba swung through it, appearing totally shocked by the pitch selection. In his last two starts, Price has used his changeup more than ever before in his career -- and on Sunday, he helped the Rays win a series that had an October feel to it.
If the two teams meet in the playoffs this year, maybe the Rays will use the defensive shift more, because it has been a weapon for them early this season, as the numbers show. Tampa Bay -- maybe the most progressive of all organizations -- would probably prefer that everybody look in the other direction, as if there was nothing to see.
But on one of the first days of spring training, the Rays' coaching staff spoke at length with the players and told them they intended to use the shift a lot more this season, particularly against right-handed hitters, and with Maddon and coaches Dave Martinez and Tom Foley doing the selling, the players have bought in.
In preparation for "Sunday Night Baseball," Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN Stats & Information compiled these stats on the Rays' shifty ways, based on data from Baseball Info Solutions:
[h4]Infield shifting[/h4]
The teams with the most infield shifts so far this season.
[table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Shifts
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
125<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
50
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
44
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
43
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
41
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>62 vs RHB, 63 vs LHB[/td][/tr][/table]
The Rays' infield is shifting at a record pace. They are already more than halfway to their 2011 shift total, which led the majors (see chart).
Baseball Info Solutions' definition of shift: There must be three infielders positioned on one side of a base, or the third infielder should be playing directly behind second base.
The huge spike in shifts is largely due to shifting on right-handed hitters this season. In 2010, only 4 percent of the Rays' shifts were against right-handed batters. Last season, it was 7 percent. So far in 2012? It's 49.6 percent. The Rays have 43 more shifts against right-handed batters than the next-highest team (Milwaukee).
The Rays don't like to talk in specifics about their shifting, but here are some of their remarks to the media about it:
Maddon: "Everyone talks about taking risks on offense, but we want to be aggressive on defense."
Rays shortstop Sean Rodriguez: "It just makes sense. A guy like A-Rod is not normally used to getting shifted against. If you think about it, they're trying to pull wide, because they're trying to drive the ball into the gap or hit a home run. So even at best case, if they're swinging the bat well and they're like, 'I want to hit the ball to the four-hole because it's wide open,' well, that's fine, because he's not going to beat us on the basepaths. So we'll take that single over him actually trying to drive that ball, so we've taken him out of his game plan. He's thinking about hitting singles instead of hitting doubles or home runs."
GM Andrew Friedman: "There are very few things we can answer in this game that are 100 percent. It's just playing the odds and shifting things ever so slightly and hope that over the course of time it helps us some."
Nick Swisher: "That's the first time I've seen a shift like that. Righties, lefties; it doesn't really matter. It feels like there's 15 guys on the right side of the infield or the left side of the infield."
Mark Teixeira: "I guess if you spend all winter looking at numbers, you can convince yourself to play it against everybody. Call me crazy, but I'm surprised people don't play four outfielders sometimes."
• Last season, the Rays ranked first in MLB in defensive runs saved (plus-85) and defensive efficiency (72.8 percent of balls in play converted into outs). Opponents hit .222 on ground balls; league average was .237.
Quick hits on shifts from the Fielding Bible:
• First known shift: July 14, 1946 vs. Ted Williams. He walked on four pitches.
• Under Ken Macha in 2010, the Brewers shifted 22 times. Last season under Ron Roenicke, it was 170 times. So was there a noticeable difference? In 2010, opponents hit .253 on grounders. In 2011, that fell to .228.
• The player most impacted by shifts has been Ryan Howard. Since 2010, he's hit .317 with no shift and .177 with the shift on.
In my opinion: The Brewers' use of the shift is directly related to the fact that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin -- a longtime evaluator and scout -- is as open-minded to new information and metrics as any executive in the sport.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Tampa Bay's schedule in April was brutal, yet the Rays are in excellent standing, as Joe Smith writes.
• Before Sunday's game, Texas manager Ron Washington described how Josh Hamilton came into this season on a mission, intent on playing in a whole lot of games; 156 was the specific number Hamilton mentioned to his manager. But Hamilton might have to miss some games after tweaking his back.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't saying Kenley Jansen is the closer, but … he pitched in the closer's spot Sunday. Javy Guerra got up in the ninth inning. In short, it appears the job of Dodger closer is up for grabs right now.
• From ESPN Stats and Info: Josh Thole became the 327th different player to homer off Jamie Moyer. Thole was born Oct. 28, 1986, and Moyer had already given up 10 career home runs by that day.
[h4]A-Rod's milestone[/h4]
The top 10 players in career runs batted in since RBI became an official stat in 1920.
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
RBIs
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Hank Aaron
[/td][td]
2,297
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Barry Bonds
[/td][td]
1,996
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Lou Gehrig
[/td][td]
1,994
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Babe Ruth
[/td][td]
1,988
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Stan Musial
[/td][td]
1,950
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Jimmie Foxx
[/td][td]
1,924
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Eddie Murray
[/td][td]
1,917
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
1,904
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Willie Mays
[/td][td]
1,903
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Mel Ott
[/td][td]
1,864
[/td][/tr][/table]
• CC Sabathia shut down the Detroit Tigers, while a teammate passed a milestone.
From ESPN Stats & Info: With his second-inning single Sunday, Alex Rodriguez drove in his 1,903rd career run, tying him for eighth on the all-time RBI list with Willie Mays. Rodriguez later tacked on another RBI to take sole possession of eighth (see chart).
• The Baltimore Orioles won again and lead the AL East with a 14-8 record. We're going to learn a whole lot more about Baltimore, because it is entering the gantlet: 15 straight games against the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Rays and Rangers. Jason Hammel gets the ball tonight; he's been pitching well, as Eduardo Encina writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge is set to join the Oakland Athletics. Since Scott Sizemore's injury, Oakland has basically been holding an open audition at third base, and Inge now will get his chance. If he hits, the job is his; if he doesn't, he could be looking at the end of his career. As Manny Ramirez will attest, Oakland can sometimes be the end of the earth. Inge is expected to join the Athletics in Boston today, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Johnny Damon is expected to join the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday.
3. Alex Anthopoulos still won't say what the Toronto Blue Jays bid on Yu Darvish. It was significantly less than what the Rangers bid. Toronto fans will get a chance to see Darvish pitch tonight.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is going to watch Vladimir Guerrero hit. The Diamondbacks have enough flexibility in their roster to make it happen, if they think Guerrero is worth the risk.
5. Freddy Garcia was moved to the Yankees' bullpen.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Scott Linebrink's shoulder is still bothering him.
2. Danny Duffy has been cleared to return to the KC rotation, as mentioned within this notebook.
3. Doug Fister is set for his first rehab start, as Shawn Windsor writes.
4. Joe Mauer got dinged by a foul ball.
5. The Mariners' George Sherrill will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Geoff Baker writes.
6. Kevin Youkilis missed Sunday's game with a stiff back.
7. Jayson Werth was scratched from the starting lineup.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Derek Lowe continues to shine for the Indians.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lowe shut down the Los Angeles Angels:
A) Threw 54 percent of pitches in the zone, including 61 percent to righties, his most in a game since September 2009, leading to more swings put in play (56 percent versus 46 percent last season).
B) He had 20 outs recorded by infielders (including one strikeout) versus only three by the outfield.
C) He retired 13 straight in the middle innings, including single-digit pitch counts in the fourth, fifth and sixth.
D) Right-handed hitters went 1-for-21 against Lowe, with the only hit belonging to Chris Iannetta in the eighth (the last batter Lowe faced).
2. An attempted double-steal by the St. Louis Cardinals -- which ended Sunday's defeat -- didn't go as planned, as Derrick Goold writes.
3. Bruce Chen got hit around, as Bob Dutton writes.
4. Max Scherzer had all kinds of command issues, as Lynn Henning writes. And Jim Leyland sort of put him on notice, indirectly. From Henning's story:
6. Matt Garza was The Man for the Chicago Cubs.
7. Gavin Floyd again flirted with a no-hitter, as Dave van Dyck writes.
8. The Milwaukee Brewers escaped with a victory.
9. Henderson Alvarez picked up his first win, as John Lott writes.
10. Todd Helton mashed a grand slam, but the Colorado Rockies couldn't take their comeback to the next level.
11. Wade Miley shut down the Miami Marlins.
12. Bartolo Colon was really good Sunday, before it all crumbled for the Athletics.
13. Madison Bumgarner closed out April with a win.
14. James Loney got a big hit for the Dodgers.
15. The Angels lost again. Bill Plunkett's first line in today's story: "If the Angels haven't hit rock bottom yet, it's only because they can't hit anything right now."
16. The San Diego Padres have yet to win a series, writes Chris Jenkins.
17. Johan Santana was excellent again, but the New York Mets had to scramble for the win.
18. The Red Sox closed out what was a strong road trip with a loss.
19. Tim Hudson came off the disabled list and delivered, as David O'Brien writes.
By The Numbers, from ESPN's Stats & Info:
4: no-hit bids Gavin Floyd has taken six or more innings, tied for second among active pitchers.
22: consecutive scoreless innings that Johan Santana has thrown against the Rockies.
48: consecutive batters with two strikes that went hitless against Gio Gonzalez until James Loney ended his streak.
88: consecutive at-bats Albert Pujols has gone without a home run.
But then the Rays used only one shift in their victory against the Texas Rangers on Sunday night, in a game that became more about David Price's recent trend of relying on -- and trusting -- a devastating changeup. The Tampa Bay left-hander went into the game winless in six decisions against the Rangers, with a 5.30 ERA, and in each instance in which he was in serious trouble last night, he steered grittily with his off-speed stuff.
Price had a 5-2 lead and had thrown 104 pitches as the bottom of the seventh inning began, and after Mike Napoli singled to lead off, Rays manager Joe Maddon could have relieved Price. Joel Peralta was warmed up and ready to go in the visitors' bullpen.
But Maddon stuck with Price to face Yorvit Torrealba, a noted fastball hitter, and Torrealba worked himself into what seemed to be a great situation to get a fastball: The count was full at 3-2, and if Price had walked Torrealba, he would have brought the tying run to the plate.
Price threw an excellent changeup, however, and Torrealba swung through it, appearing totally shocked by the pitch selection. In his last two starts, Price has used his changeup more than ever before in his career -- and on Sunday, he helped the Rays win a series that had an October feel to it.
If the two teams meet in the playoffs this year, maybe the Rays will use the defensive shift more, because it has been a weapon for them early this season, as the numbers show. Tampa Bay -- maybe the most progressive of all organizations -- would probably prefer that everybody look in the other direction, as if there was nothing to see.
But on one of the first days of spring training, the Rays' coaching staff spoke at length with the players and told them they intended to use the shift a lot more this season, particularly against right-handed hitters, and with Maddon and coaches Dave Martinez and Tom Foley doing the selling, the players have bought in.
In preparation for "Sunday Night Baseball," Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN Stats & Information compiled these stats on the Rays' shifty ways, based on data from Baseball Info Solutions:
[h4]Infield shifting[/h4]
The teams with the most infield shifts so far this season.
[table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Shifts
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
125<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
50
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
44
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
43
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
41
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>62 vs RHB, 63 vs LHB[/td][/tr][/table]
The Rays' infield is shifting at a record pace. They are already more than halfway to their 2011 shift total, which led the majors (see chart).
Baseball Info Solutions' definition of shift: There must be three infielders positioned on one side of a base, or the third infielder should be playing directly behind second base.
The huge spike in shifts is largely due to shifting on right-handed hitters this season. In 2010, only 4 percent of the Rays' shifts were against right-handed batters. Last season, it was 7 percent. So far in 2012? It's 49.6 percent. The Rays have 43 more shifts against right-handed batters than the next-highest team (Milwaukee).
The Rays don't like to talk in specifics about their shifting, but here are some of their remarks to the media about it:
Maddon: "Everyone talks about taking risks on offense, but we want to be aggressive on defense."
Rays shortstop Sean Rodriguez: "It just makes sense. A guy like A-Rod is not normally used to getting shifted against. If you think about it, they're trying to pull wide, because they're trying to drive the ball into the gap or hit a home run. So even at best case, if they're swinging the bat well and they're like, 'I want to hit the ball to the four-hole because it's wide open,' well, that's fine, because he's not going to beat us on the basepaths. So we'll take that single over him actually trying to drive that ball, so we've taken him out of his game plan. He's thinking about hitting singles instead of hitting doubles or home runs."
GM Andrew Friedman: "There are very few things we can answer in this game that are 100 percent. It's just playing the odds and shifting things ever so slightly and hope that over the course of time it helps us some."
Nick Swisher: "That's the first time I've seen a shift like that. Righties, lefties; it doesn't really matter. It feels like there's 15 guys on the right side of the infield or the left side of the infield."
Mark Teixeira: "I guess if you spend all winter looking at numbers, you can convince yourself to play it against everybody. Call me crazy, but I'm surprised people don't play four outfielders sometimes."
• Last season, the Rays ranked first in MLB in defensive runs saved (plus-85) and defensive efficiency (72.8 percent of balls in play converted into outs). Opponents hit .222 on ground balls; league average was .237.
Quick hits on shifts from the Fielding Bible:
• First known shift: July 14, 1946 vs. Ted Williams. He walked on four pitches.
• Under Ken Macha in 2010, the Brewers shifted 22 times. Last season under Ron Roenicke, it was 170 times. So was there a noticeable difference? In 2010, opponents hit .253 on grounders. In 2011, that fell to .228.
• The player most impacted by shifts has been Ryan Howard. Since 2010, he's hit .317 with no shift and .177 with the shift on.
In my opinion: The Brewers' use of the shift is directly related to the fact that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin -- a longtime evaluator and scout -- is as open-minded to new information and metrics as any executive in the sport.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Tampa Bay's schedule in April was brutal, yet the Rays are in excellent standing, as Joe Smith writes.
• Before Sunday's game, Texas manager Ron Washington described how Josh Hamilton came into this season on a mission, intent on playing in a whole lot of games; 156 was the specific number Hamilton mentioned to his manager. But Hamilton might have to miss some games after tweaking his back.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't saying Kenley Jansen is the closer, but … he pitched in the closer's spot Sunday. Javy Guerra got up in the ninth inning. In short, it appears the job of Dodger closer is up for grabs right now.
• From ESPN Stats and Info: Josh Thole became the 327th different player to homer off Jamie Moyer. Thole was born Oct. 28, 1986, and Moyer had already given up 10 career home runs by that day.
[h4]A-Rod's milestone[/h4]
The top 10 players in career runs batted in since RBI became an official stat in 1920.
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
RBIs
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Hank Aaron
[/td][td]
2,297
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Barry Bonds
[/td][td]
1,996
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Lou Gehrig
[/td][td]
1,994
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Babe Ruth
[/td][td]
1,988
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Stan Musial
[/td][td]
1,950
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Jimmie Foxx
[/td][td]
1,924
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Eddie Murray
[/td][td]
1,917
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
1,904
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Willie Mays
[/td][td]
1,903
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Mel Ott
[/td][td]
1,864
[/td][/tr][/table]
• CC Sabathia shut down the Detroit Tigers, while a teammate passed a milestone.
From ESPN Stats & Info: With his second-inning single Sunday, Alex Rodriguez drove in his 1,903rd career run, tying him for eighth on the all-time RBI list with Willie Mays. Rodriguez later tacked on another RBI to take sole possession of eighth (see chart).
• The Baltimore Orioles won again and lead the AL East with a 14-8 record. We're going to learn a whole lot more about Baltimore, because it is entering the gantlet: 15 straight games against the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Rays and Rangers. Jason Hammel gets the ball tonight; he's been pitching well, as Eduardo Encina writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge is set to join the Oakland Athletics. Since Scott Sizemore's injury, Oakland has basically been holding an open audition at third base, and Inge now will get his chance. If he hits, the job is his; if he doesn't, he could be looking at the end of his career. As Manny Ramirez will attest, Oakland can sometimes be the end of the earth. Inge is expected to join the Athletics in Boston today, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Johnny Damon is expected to join the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday.
3. Alex Anthopoulos still won't say what the Toronto Blue Jays bid on Yu Darvish. It was significantly less than what the Rangers bid. Toronto fans will get a chance to see Darvish pitch tonight.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is going to watch Vladimir Guerrero hit. The Diamondbacks have enough flexibility in their roster to make it happen, if they think Guerrero is worth the risk.
5. Freddy Garcia was moved to the Yankees' bullpen.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Scott Linebrink's shoulder is still bothering him.
2. Danny Duffy has been cleared to return to the KC rotation, as mentioned within this notebook.
3. Doug Fister is set for his first rehab start, as Shawn Windsor writes.
4. Joe Mauer got dinged by a foul ball.
5. The Mariners' George Sherrill will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Geoff Baker writes.
6. Kevin Youkilis missed Sunday's game with a stiff back.
7. Jayson Werth was scratched from the starting lineup.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Derek Lowe continues to shine for the Indians.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lowe shut down the Los Angeles Angels:
A) Threw 54 percent of pitches in the zone, including 61 percent to righties, his most in a game since September 2009, leading to more swings put in play (56 percent versus 46 percent last season).
B) He had 20 outs recorded by infielders (including one strikeout) versus only three by the outfield.
C) He retired 13 straight in the middle innings, including single-digit pitch counts in the fourth, fifth and sixth.
D) Right-handed hitters went 1-for-21 against Lowe, with the only hit belonging to Chris Iannetta in the eighth (the last batter Lowe faced).
2. An attempted double-steal by the St. Louis Cardinals -- which ended Sunday's defeat -- didn't go as planned, as Derrick Goold writes.
3. Bruce Chen got hit around, as Bob Dutton writes.
4. Max Scherzer had all kinds of command issues, as Lynn Henning writes. And Jim Leyland sort of put him on notice, indirectly. From Henning's story:
- "I'm not pointing my finger at Max Scherzer," said Tigers manager Jim Leyland, who nonetheless made clear that a team's patience might be thinning. "I'm just saying, he's got to get better. It's that simple.
- "There are always choices," he said, in a clear reference to Scherzer perhaps making a tuneup trip to Triple A Toledo (Scherzer has one minor-league option remaining.) "But you're always better off to think about things than say something after you just got beat.
- "But I can't sugarcoat it. It's a simple fact. When you're the main man, you've got to take charge and throw strikes up here.
- Scherzer's record tumbled to 1-3, with an earned-run average of 7.77.
- "His stuff is really good enough, but his control isn't good enough," Leyland said. "I'm trying to put it in a nice way."
6. Matt Garza was The Man for the Chicago Cubs.
7. Gavin Floyd again flirted with a no-hitter, as Dave van Dyck writes.
8. The Milwaukee Brewers escaped with a victory.
9. Henderson Alvarez picked up his first win, as John Lott writes.
10. Todd Helton mashed a grand slam, but the Colorado Rockies couldn't take their comeback to the next level.
11. Wade Miley shut down the Miami Marlins.
12. Bartolo Colon was really good Sunday, before it all crumbled for the Athletics.
13. Madison Bumgarner closed out April with a win.
14. James Loney got a big hit for the Dodgers.
15. The Angels lost again. Bill Plunkett's first line in today's story: "If the Angels haven't hit rock bottom yet, it's only because they can't hit anything right now."
16. The San Diego Padres have yet to win a series, writes Chris Jenkins.
17. Johan Santana was excellent again, but the New York Mets had to scramble for the win.
18. The Red Sox closed out what was a strong road trip with a loss.
19. Tim Hudson came off the disabled list and delivered, as David O'Brien writes.
By The Numbers, from ESPN's Stats & Info:
4: no-hit bids Gavin Floyd has taken six or more innings, tied for second among active pitchers.
22: consecutive scoreless innings that Johan Santana has thrown against the Rockies.
48: consecutive batters with two strikes that went hitless against Gio Gonzalez until James Loney ended his streak.
88: consecutive at-bats Albert Pujols has gone without a home run.
Rays bucking offensive trend.
Spoiler [+]
There's a buzz around the Tampa Bay Rays this season. Everyone's talking about the exaggerated defensive shifts manager Joe Maddon employs, particularly against left-handed hitters. There's also some talk about declining defense from Gold Glove winner Evan Longoria. The Rays' star third baseman has racked up six errors through 20 games, compared to 14 in each of the past two seasons. And there's the very deep, very talented starting rotation.
But something else interesting is going on with the Rays. Something less noticed, a bit more subtle, until you dig into the numbers. Since bursting through with their first division title in 2008, the Rays have been a speed first, power second team on offense. The Rays led the league in stolen bases in 2008, 2009 and 2010, and ranked second in 2011. In those same seasons, Tampa Bay ranked seventh, sixth, 12th and ninth, respectively, in home runs.
In 2009, teams hit an average of 168 home runs, and the numbers have been declining ever since. The per-team average was 153 home runs in 2010 and 152 in 2011. At the same time, stolen base rates have been steady or increasing. Teams stole an average of 99 bases in 2009 and 2010. That figure jumped to 109 last season.
While the league is hitting fewer home runs and stealing more bases, the Rays are moving in the opposite direction. Tampa Bay is becoming a power first, speed second team. And it's working.
Going back to their days in the cellar of the American League East, the Rays hit more home runs than the average major league team. In 2006, the Rays (then known as the Devil Rays) smacked 190 home runs compared to a league average of 179.5, good for 11th in the league. The next season, they hit 187 when the league average was 165, good for seventh overall.
The Rays were also a good running team back then. They stole 134 bases in 2006 and 131 in 2007, ranking them fourth and sixth in the league, respectively. But in 2008, the Rays took their team speed to the next level. In a season when stolen bases dropped from 97 per team in '07 to 93 per team in '08, the Rays' numbers went up, drastically.
Tampa Bay stole 142 bases in 2008, best in the league, thanks to 44 swipes from B.J. Upton and 25 from Carl Crawford. They also went from worst to first in the standings that season, winning 97 games and the American League pennant. Sure, Rays pitchers gave up 170 fewer runs in 2008 than in 2007, which has more to do with the turnaround than anything else. But the Rays' speed on the basepaths offset a slight drop in team power in 2008.
The Rays turned the speed dial up even further in 2009, stealing 194 bases, making them first in the league again. Tampa Bay stole nearly 100 more bases than the per-team average of 99. Again, Crawford and Upton led the way, with 60 and 42 swipes, respectively. But shortstop Jason Bartlett added 30 stolen bags and second baseman Ben Zobrist, in his first full season with the Rays, added 17 more.
That was the high-water mark for the Rays. In 2010, Crawford's last season in Tampa Bay, the Rays stole 172 bases, with 47 from Crawford, 42 from Upton, 24 from Zobrist and 15 from Longoria. Bartlett's numbers dropped from 30 in 2009 to 11 in '08. Last season, the numbers dropped further, down to 155 for the team. Crawford's departure hurt, of course, but Upton stole 36 bases and newcomers Desmond Jennings and Sam Fuld provided a nice buffer, swiping 20 bags each. Johnny Damon added 19, as did Zobrist.
As the Rays' stolen base numbers have been declining relative to the league since 2009, their home runs have been increasing relative to the league since 2010. Tampa Bay smacked 199 over the fence in 2009. That number dropped to 160 in 2010. But last season, the Rays raised their home run total to 172, while the total number of home runs hit in the league dropped.
So far this season, the Rays have stolen only 14 bases, ranking 13th in baseball. Upton started the season on the disabled list, and Fuld is likely out for the season. Their absences have undoubtedly hurt the team's speed. At the same time, the Rays have hit 28 home runs, while the rest of baseball has averaged fewer than 20. Only the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles have sent more balls over the fence.
The pitching is excellent. The defense is strategically placed. But the Rays are becoming a real power team, and it's fueling their early-season success.
But something else interesting is going on with the Rays. Something less noticed, a bit more subtle, until you dig into the numbers. Since bursting through with their first division title in 2008, the Rays have been a speed first, power second team on offense. The Rays led the league in stolen bases in 2008, 2009 and 2010, and ranked second in 2011. In those same seasons, Tampa Bay ranked seventh, sixth, 12th and ninth, respectively, in home runs.
In 2009, teams hit an average of 168 home runs, and the numbers have been declining ever since. The per-team average was 153 home runs in 2010 and 152 in 2011. At the same time, stolen base rates have been steady or increasing. Teams stole an average of 99 bases in 2009 and 2010. That figure jumped to 109 last season.
While the league is hitting fewer home runs and stealing more bases, the Rays are moving in the opposite direction. Tampa Bay is becoming a power first, speed second team. And it's working.
Going back to their days in the cellar of the American League East, the Rays hit more home runs than the average major league team. In 2006, the Rays (then known as the Devil Rays) smacked 190 home runs compared to a league average of 179.5, good for 11th in the league. The next season, they hit 187 when the league average was 165, good for seventh overall.
The Rays were also a good running team back then. They stole 134 bases in 2006 and 131 in 2007, ranking them fourth and sixth in the league, respectively. But in 2008, the Rays took their team speed to the next level. In a season when stolen bases dropped from 97 per team in '07 to 93 per team in '08, the Rays' numbers went up, drastically.
Tampa Bay stole 142 bases in 2008, best in the league, thanks to 44 swipes from B.J. Upton and 25 from Carl Crawford. They also went from worst to first in the standings that season, winning 97 games and the American League pennant. Sure, Rays pitchers gave up 170 fewer runs in 2008 than in 2007, which has more to do with the turnaround than anything else. But the Rays' speed on the basepaths offset a slight drop in team power in 2008.
The Rays turned the speed dial up even further in 2009, stealing 194 bases, making them first in the league again. Tampa Bay stole nearly 100 more bases than the per-team average of 99. Again, Crawford and Upton led the way, with 60 and 42 swipes, respectively. But shortstop Jason Bartlett added 30 stolen bags and second baseman Ben Zobrist, in his first full season with the Rays, added 17 more.
That was the high-water mark for the Rays. In 2010, Crawford's last season in Tampa Bay, the Rays stole 172 bases, with 47 from Crawford, 42 from Upton, 24 from Zobrist and 15 from Longoria. Bartlett's numbers dropped from 30 in 2009 to 11 in '08. Last season, the numbers dropped further, down to 155 for the team. Crawford's departure hurt, of course, but Upton stole 36 bases and newcomers Desmond Jennings and Sam Fuld provided a nice buffer, swiping 20 bags each. Johnny Damon added 19, as did Zobrist.
As the Rays' stolen base numbers have been declining relative to the league since 2009, their home runs have been increasing relative to the league since 2010. Tampa Bay smacked 199 over the fence in 2009. That number dropped to 160 in 2010. But last season, the Rays raised their home run total to 172, while the total number of home runs hit in the league dropped.
So far this season, the Rays have stolen only 14 bases, ranking 13th in baseball. Upton started the season on the disabled list, and Fuld is likely out for the season. Their absences have undoubtedly hurt the team's speed. At the same time, the Rays have hit 28 home runs, while the rest of baseball has averaged fewer than 20. Only the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles have sent more balls over the fence.
The pitching is excellent. The defense is strategically placed. But the Rays are becoming a real power team, and it's fueling their early-season success.
Appel still flirting with No. 1 status.
Spoiler [+]
Stanford right-hander Mark Appel began the season as perhaps the top candidate to go No. 1 overall. Since very early in the schedule, Appling County (Ga.) High School outfielder Byron Buxton, who has been the top prospect in Keith Law's Top 50 Draft Prospects from the get-go, has moved to the front of that line.
Buxton and his teammates finished their regular season Saturday and will start a playoff run next weekend. He entered that final game batting .566 with a .663 on-base percentage, 14 doubles and 28 stolen bases, not to mention a perfect 6-0 record and two strikeouts per inning from the mound.
Appel, however, continues to tease scouts with big velocity and signs of improved command and offspeed stuff. The 6-foot-5, 215- pounder went seven strong innings Friday night at UCLA, allowing eight hits and an earned run. He did not walk a batter and struck out 10. For the year, Appel is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 81-20 K/BB ratio in 79 innings of work.
"He's the [Gerrit] Cole of this draft," said one scouting supervisor. "You have to look down the road a little bit more than you'd like," on a college pitcher, "but the raw ability is there and he's learning to pitch this year." There are times when Appel looks the part of a No. 1 pick and others when he appears to be quite the risk in the top half of the top 10.
Last week, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote that Florida high school hitter Albert Amora would be his No. 1 overall pick, and ranks him No. 1 among the players he has seen this spring, and that list includes Buxton. One might wonder, however: Why not Florida catcher Mike Zunino?
Generally, clubs drafting No. 1 overall prefer to select a player with immense upside. Zunino is the No. 2 player on Law's latest top 50, but might lack the tools for superstar performances at the big-league level. It's also worth noting that a college catcher has been selected No. 1 overall just three times in the draft's 47-year history, not counting 2010 top pick Bryce Harper, who was a 17-year-old playing at a junior college.
Arms Race
• Mississippi State right-hander Chris Stratton went the distance Friday night, shutting out Ole Miss on five hits -- three of those, one a double, by early Day 2 consideration Alex Yarbrough. Stratton walked one and fanned seven, needing just 104 pitches, thanks to 13 ground ball outs, including two double plays. Stratton is getting first-round attention and improved to 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 95-17 K/BB ratio in 75 1/3 innings.
• Louisiana State ace Kevin Gausman, who at age 21 is a draft-eligible sophomore, failed to wow scouts Friday night versus Georgia, but his final stat line is deceiving. He went six frames and yielded three runs on 10 hits -- all of the hits were singles and four were of the infield variety. Gausman whiffed nine and did not walk a batter but did battle with his command and control and needed 120 pitches to get 18 outs. Gausman is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 97-20 K/BB ratio in 75 innings. He has thrown two shutouts and surrendered just one long ball, but his 10 wild pitches and a fastball that is at times true and flat could keep him out of the top five.
• Kyle Zimmer answered the bell Friday, striking out 10 over seven innings, but one scout in attendance was not all that thrilled with what he saw. It wasn't Zimmer's fault; his stuff was good, including a fastball in the 92-95 mph range and a plus curveball. It's that he's been doing it against subpar competition. He remains a potential top 10 selection.
• If Appel, Gausman and Zimmer are the top three college arms, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha might be No. 4 and the 6-foot-6 right-hander danced on the Texas Longhorns Friday night, limiting his cross-state rival to four hits. He struck out nine versus two bases on balls.
• Wacha's biggest challengers for this spot include Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney and Duke's Marcus Stroman. Heaney, a left-hander, fanned eight through 8 1/3 shutout innings at Kansas and improved to 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 102-18 K/BB ratio in 84 innings. Heaney, listed at 6-foot-2 and 174 pounds, lacks the projection of the top four in the class, but his stuff is unquestionable and he's performed consistently all season.
• Prep left-hander Max Fried of Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) High School struck out eight in a complete-game win last week, allowing just two hits and a walk. Fried is a potential top pick, and the No. 1 prep arm in the class. The former title holder, Fried's teammate Lucas Giolito, could regain that crown as he prepares to throw for scouts between now and the draft. Giolito was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament earlier this spring, the exact same diagnosis of San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April.
• Camarillo High School (Calif.) southpaw Hunter Virant tossed a no-hitter with four strikeouts last week, allowing just one baserunner. Virant is a first-round talent, potentially landing somewhere in the top 20-25 picks.
• St. Edward's closer Stephen Johnson, who typically pitches in the 94-98 mph range and has hit 100 in the past, picked up saves in all three games this past weekend, striking out four in 2 1/3 frames. For the year, Johnson has allowed but 14 hits in 33 1/3 innings, just two going for extra bases. Of the 100 outs he's recorded, 57 have come by strikeout. The Boulder, Colo., native could be the first reliever off the board.
Around the Batter's Box
• No college position player has more to prove the final four-plus weeks than Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, who has had a disappointing season at the plate and has committed an unexpected 11 errors in the field in 41 games. Marrero went 5-for-12 over the weekend including two doubles and a triple and is up to .280/.343/.422 for the year. Scouts do not appear concerned an ounce about the defensive profile -- he's a big-league defender at short -- but the bat might leave him on the board a few picks longer. Law wrote last week that Pittsburgh at No. 8 might be the floor for Marrero, who otherwise could get to Oakland at No. 11.
• Zunino, whose season numbers are still very good and versus the always-tough SEC, went hitless in four at-bats Friday but went 5-for-8 Saturday and Sunday and is now batting .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and .659 slugging percentage. Zunino has tallied 18 doubles and 12 long balls and is a likely top five pick. If he happens to slip past Seattle at No. 3, the Chicago Cubs at No. 6 might be as far as Zunino reaches.
• Stanford's Stephen Piscotty, who moved to left field -- perhaps his most likely position in pro ball -- after freshman third baseman Alex Blandino blasted three homers last week en route to being named the national player of the week. Piscotty has responded offensively, collecting five hits in 10 at-bats versus UCLA, including his fifth home run of the year off Bruins ace and potential 2013 first-round pick Adam Plutko. The Cardinal star is up to .325/.411/.521 on the season, drawing 20 bases on balls and striking out just 11 times.
• Clemson's Richie Shaffer, who has shot up draft boards as much as any college bat this spring, had a tough weekend, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. Shaffer is still a potential top-20 pick, though his swing can get long and at times scouts wish he was a bit more aggressive. He enters play this week batting .347/.481/.599 with eight home runs and a 45-36 BB/K ratio.
• Stony Brook centerfielder Travis Jankowski had a huge weekend series, going 8-for-13 with two home runs, a triple and two stolen bases. The speedster is batting .390/.468/.634 with 29 stolen bases and could sneak into the top 40-50 picks, despite poor competition. He hit well in the Cape Cod League last summer, however, which keeps him in the Day 1 conversation.
Buxton and his teammates finished their regular season Saturday and will start a playoff run next weekend. He entered that final game batting .566 with a .663 on-base percentage, 14 doubles and 28 stolen bases, not to mention a perfect 6-0 record and two strikeouts per inning from the mound.
Appel, however, continues to tease scouts with big velocity and signs of improved command and offspeed stuff. The 6-foot-5, 215- pounder went seven strong innings Friday night at UCLA, allowing eight hits and an earned run. He did not walk a batter and struck out 10. For the year, Appel is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 81-20 K/BB ratio in 79 innings of work.
"He's the [Gerrit] Cole of this draft," said one scouting supervisor. "You have to look down the road a little bit more than you'd like," on a college pitcher, "but the raw ability is there and he's learning to pitch this year." There are times when Appel looks the part of a No. 1 pick and others when he appears to be quite the risk in the top half of the top 10.
Last week, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote that Florida high school hitter Albert Amora would be his No. 1 overall pick, and ranks him No. 1 among the players he has seen this spring, and that list includes Buxton. One might wonder, however: Why not Florida catcher Mike Zunino?
Generally, clubs drafting No. 1 overall prefer to select a player with immense upside. Zunino is the No. 2 player on Law's latest top 50, but might lack the tools for superstar performances at the big-league level. It's also worth noting that a college catcher has been selected No. 1 overall just three times in the draft's 47-year history, not counting 2010 top pick Bryce Harper, who was a 17-year-old playing at a junior college.
Arms Race
• Mississippi State right-hander Chris Stratton went the distance Friday night, shutting out Ole Miss on five hits -- three of those, one a double, by early Day 2 consideration Alex Yarbrough. Stratton walked one and fanned seven, needing just 104 pitches, thanks to 13 ground ball outs, including two double plays. Stratton is getting first-round attention and improved to 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 95-17 K/BB ratio in 75 1/3 innings.
• Louisiana State ace Kevin Gausman, who at age 21 is a draft-eligible sophomore, failed to wow scouts Friday night versus Georgia, but his final stat line is deceiving. He went six frames and yielded three runs on 10 hits -- all of the hits were singles and four were of the infield variety. Gausman whiffed nine and did not walk a batter but did battle with his command and control and needed 120 pitches to get 18 outs. Gausman is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 97-20 K/BB ratio in 75 innings. He has thrown two shutouts and surrendered just one long ball, but his 10 wild pitches and a fastball that is at times true and flat could keep him out of the top five.
• Kyle Zimmer answered the bell Friday, striking out 10 over seven innings, but one scout in attendance was not all that thrilled with what he saw. It wasn't Zimmer's fault; his stuff was good, including a fastball in the 92-95 mph range and a plus curveball. It's that he's been doing it against subpar competition. He remains a potential top 10 selection.
• If Appel, Gausman and Zimmer are the top three college arms, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha might be No. 4 and the 6-foot-6 right-hander danced on the Texas Longhorns Friday night, limiting his cross-state rival to four hits. He struck out nine versus two bases on balls.
• Wacha's biggest challengers for this spot include Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney and Duke's Marcus Stroman. Heaney, a left-hander, fanned eight through 8 1/3 shutout innings at Kansas and improved to 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 102-18 K/BB ratio in 84 innings. Heaney, listed at 6-foot-2 and 174 pounds, lacks the projection of the top four in the class, but his stuff is unquestionable and he's performed consistently all season.
• Prep left-hander Max Fried of Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) High School struck out eight in a complete-game win last week, allowing just two hits and a walk. Fried is a potential top pick, and the No. 1 prep arm in the class. The former title holder, Fried's teammate Lucas Giolito, could regain that crown as he prepares to throw for scouts between now and the draft. Giolito was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament earlier this spring, the exact same diagnosis of San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April.
• Camarillo High School (Calif.) southpaw Hunter Virant tossed a no-hitter with four strikeouts last week, allowing just one baserunner. Virant is a first-round talent, potentially landing somewhere in the top 20-25 picks.
• St. Edward's closer Stephen Johnson, who typically pitches in the 94-98 mph range and has hit 100 in the past, picked up saves in all three games this past weekend, striking out four in 2 1/3 frames. For the year, Johnson has allowed but 14 hits in 33 1/3 innings, just two going for extra bases. Of the 100 outs he's recorded, 57 have come by strikeout. The Boulder, Colo., native could be the first reliever off the board.
Around the Batter's Box
• No college position player has more to prove the final four-plus weeks than Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, who has had a disappointing season at the plate and has committed an unexpected 11 errors in the field in 41 games. Marrero went 5-for-12 over the weekend including two doubles and a triple and is up to .280/.343/.422 for the year. Scouts do not appear concerned an ounce about the defensive profile -- he's a big-league defender at short -- but the bat might leave him on the board a few picks longer. Law wrote last week that Pittsburgh at No. 8 might be the floor for Marrero, who otherwise could get to Oakland at No. 11.
• Zunino, whose season numbers are still very good and versus the always-tough SEC, went hitless in four at-bats Friday but went 5-for-8 Saturday and Sunday and is now batting .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and .659 slugging percentage. Zunino has tallied 18 doubles and 12 long balls and is a likely top five pick. If he happens to slip past Seattle at No. 3, the Chicago Cubs at No. 6 might be as far as Zunino reaches.
• Stanford's Stephen Piscotty, who moved to left field -- perhaps his most likely position in pro ball -- after freshman third baseman Alex Blandino blasted three homers last week en route to being named the national player of the week. Piscotty has responded offensively, collecting five hits in 10 at-bats versus UCLA, including his fifth home run of the year off Bruins ace and potential 2013 first-round pick Adam Plutko. The Cardinal star is up to .325/.411/.521 on the season, drawing 20 bases on balls and striking out just 11 times.
• Clemson's Richie Shaffer, who has shot up draft boards as much as any college bat this spring, had a tough weekend, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. Shaffer is still a potential top-20 pick, though his swing can get long and at times scouts wish he was a bit more aggressive. He enters play this week batting .347/.481/.599 with eight home runs and a 45-36 BB/K ratio.
• Stony Brook centerfielder Travis Jankowski had a huge weekend series, going 8-for-13 with two home runs, a triple and two stolen bases. The speedster is batting .390/.468/.634 with 29 stolen bases and could sneak into the top 40-50 picks, despite poor competition. He hit well in the Cape Cod League last summer, however, which keeps him in the Day 1 conversation.
Top '12 for 2012: Arenado up to No. 2.
Spoiler [+]
Note: The top 12 fantasy prospects (players currently in the minor leagues) for 2012 are below. These rankings are a bit different from other prospect rankings; these are strictly for 2012 fantasy purposes. So not only do talent and recent performance play a role in the rankings, but potential paths to the big leagues also factor in. In addition, all young players in the minors are eligible, including those in "prospect purgatory," those who have exceeded rookie status but are still young and unproven commodities.
[h3]1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Trout, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/laa/los-angeles-angels')">Los Angeles Angels (Last week's rank: 1)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Salt Lake): 8-for-17 (.471), 6 RBIs, 2 SB
Season totals: .403-1-13, 6 SB in 20 games
Update: Um, Angels, you are 6-13 in a year with high expectations. Mike Trout is awesome and can help turn things around immediately. We know it's going to require a difficult decision involving veterans who are owed big money, but it's all about winning, right?
What he can do: Trout would help the Angels and your fantasy team immediately. He can hit, he can run and he has a bit of pop. Unless your league heavily values hit-by-pitch and double-play balls, this is your guy. Editor's note: Trout was called up to the Angels late Friday, and could play this weekend versus the Indians.
[h3]2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 6)[/h3]
[+] Enlarge
Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesNolan Arenado is proving he's big league-ready at Double-A.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 7-for-25 (.280), 4 RBIs
Season totals: .342-1-13 in 20 games
Update: Remember when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30156/chris-nelson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30156/chris-nelson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30156" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Nelson looked great at the plate and was flirting with a .300 average? Well, that time has officially passed, and now the Rockies don't have a competent third baseman. Well, actually they do. His last name is Arenado, and he just keeps raking at Double-A.
What he can do: Arenado's sublime ability to make contact, along with playing in Coors Field, should lead to a good batting average right away, although for now his power could be limited to the doubles category.
[h3]3. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Travis Snider, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 8-for-24 (.333), HR, 5 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .400-4-23, 2 SBs in 19 games
Update: While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Eric Thames' bat has come alive a bit, what you are seeing now is his peak value, and his defense has been far from stellar. It's time to fish or cut bait with Snider, whom scouts love, even though he has never quite conquered big league pitching. Could now be the time? Update: Snider was removed from Thursday night's game because of a wrist strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it could delay things.
What he can do: Hit for average, get on base and hit for power. Well, at least that's what he has always done in the minor leagues. At some point, it has to translate, right?
[h3]4. Pat Corbin, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ari/arizona-diamondbacks')">Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 IP, 25 K's
Update: With http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30376" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"
aniel Hudson on the disabled list and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31090/josh-collmenter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/31090/josh-collmenter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31090" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Collmenter quickly turning back into a pumpkin, the D-backs have to be close to pulling from their impressive minor league pitching depth. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are better prospects, but Corbin might be the most big league-ready at this time.
What he can do: Corbin is not a future star, but he throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with a very good changeup. He'd likely deliver a good number of quality starts, but few dominating ones.
[h3]5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29402/matt-laporta">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29402/matt-laporta')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29402" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Matt LaPorta, 1B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indians">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/cle/cleveland-indians')">Cleveland Indians (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 9-for-16 (.563), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .364-5-12 in 17 games
Update: LaPorta was the big prize in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4553" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">CC Sabathia trade four years ago, but he has never lived up to expectations. Well, all of a sudden, he's crushing Triple-A pitching just like he has in the past, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5918/casey-kotchman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5918/casey-kotchman')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5918" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Casey Kotchman's poor start could lead to another chance for him.
What he can do: If you have a taste for risk, LaPorta could be an interesting play. He was a first-round pick and former stud prospect for a reason, but he's just as likely to flame out again as he is to start hitting.
[h3]6. Matt Harvey, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets (Last week: unranked)[/h3]Last week's stats (at Triple-A Buffalo): 13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 15 K's
Season totals: 2-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 26 IP, 24 K's
Update: Consider this a pre-emptive call. Harvey likely won't be called up immediately, but he's in position to take advantage of http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28507" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Pelfrey (elbow) hitting the shelf for what looks like an extended period of time. After a slow start at Triple-A, he's suddenly missing plenty of bats.
What he can do: The Mets likely want Harvey to settle in at Triple-A before calling him up, but note that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32025/chris-schwinden">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32025/chris-schwinden')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32025" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Schwinden is merely a placeholder. Upon his call-up, Harvey could rack up strikeouts immediately with both his fastball and slider, but when it comes to command and control, he's not quite there yet.
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Tony Farlow/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesDanny Hultzen is fairly polilshed for a 22-year-old.
[h3]7. Danny Hultzen, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 26 K's
Update: The Mariners have the best minor league rotation in the game at Double-A Jackson. Meanwhile, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3687/kevin-millwood">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3687/kevin-millwood')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3687" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Millwood looks old, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30502/hector-noesi">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30502/hector-noesi')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30502" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Hector Noesi looks better suited for bullpen work. One of the reasons Hultzen was the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft was because he was the most big league-ready player on the board, and he has been pitching like it of late.
What he can do: Hultzen has more polish than stuff, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter. He could need an adjustment period that involves getting knocked around a little while he learns how to use his stuff in the big leagues, but his stinginess when it comes to walks will help his cause.
[h3]8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29446/mark-melancon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29446/mark-melancon')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29446" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mark Melancon, RP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/bos/boston-red-sox')">Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's
Season totals (in minors): 2-2, SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3 1/3 IP, 6 K's
Update: Don't laugh. Yes, Melancon was awful with Boston, but this is a guy who was closing games in the big leagues last year, and he seems to have already found his stuff again in Pawtucket. He'll be back in Beantown soon.
What he can do: While it will take him awhile to earn ninth-inning trust again, Melancon should rack up plenty of strikeouts in a middle-innings role, with a good offense providing an excellent opportunity for vulture wins.
[h3]9. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 8-for-20 (.400), 4 HR, 11 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .377-9-27, 3 SB in 20 games
Update: Middlebrooks just keeps hitting. While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5375/kevin-youkilis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5375/kevin-youkilis')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5375" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Youkilis heating up is great news for the Red Sox, it's bad news for Middlebrooks, who seems stuck in the International League for the time being.
What he can do: Middlebrooks began the year as a pretty good third-base prospect, and now he's one of the best in baseball. But who knows when he will arrive?
[h3]10. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29486/chris-carter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29486/chris-carter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29486" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Carter, 1B/DH, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Sacramento): 9-for-25 (.360), 3 HR, 12 RBIs
Season totals: .291-4-19 in 19 games
Update: Carter has had plenty of big league opportunities and failed them all, but right-handed power often takes a long time to develop. A's starting first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6397" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"aric Barton seems to be lost in the tall weeds at this point, and none of the team's DHs are hitting.
What he can do: Carter has mammoth raw power, but it comes at a price, as he'll always rack up high strikeout totals that will keep his batting average down. You should not be surprised to learn that he has little speed.
[h3]11. Andrelton Simmons, SS, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mississippi): 10-for-28 (.357), 9 RBIs
Season totals: .299-0-10, 3 SB in 16 games
Update: Simmons battled with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Tyler Pastornicky right to the very end of spring training this year, but ultimately the Braves stuck to their plan and sent Simmons down. However, Pastornicky has failed to impress at the plate, and Simmons' ability to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense could get him a look should the Braves remain competitive in the National League East. Simmons won't exactly be called up soon, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
What he can do: Simmons has much more value in sim leagues due to his top-notch glove work, but he does have the speed to steal bases.
[h3]12. Mike Olt, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
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Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesMike Olt is a solid defender at third base.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Frisco): 7-for-28 (.250), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .243-5-10 in 19 games
Update: While there isn't much of a need to change anything with the Rangers these days, one point of weakness has been their production at first base, with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30452/mitch-moreland">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30452/mitch-moreland')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30452" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mitch Moreland hitting just .179. A third baseman by trade (and a plus one defensively), Olt has the offensive profile to fit either corner-infield spot and could be an internal answer if something doesn't arrive via the trade market in July.
What he can do: Olt has plenty of power and patience, but he could struggle to hit for average right away. Runs and RBIs could come in bunches simply by his being in the Rangers' explosive lineup.
[h3]Falling out of the ranks[/h3]
3. (last week's ranking) http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30892/garrett-richards">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30892/garrett-richards')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30892" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (at Triple-A Salt Lake): Richards certainly has done nothing wrong, but http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5026/jerome-williams">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/5026/jerome-williams')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5026" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jerome Williams has pitched well enough of late to hold on to the Angels' fifth-starter job.
4. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30523/lonnie-chisenhall">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30523/lonnie-chisenhall')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30523" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (at Triple-A Columbus): Chisenhall has slowed down at Triple-A, while Indians third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28468/jack-hannahan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28468/jack-hannahan')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28468" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jack Hannahan has heated up.
5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28614" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Fields, 3B, Dodgers (at Triple-A Albuquerque): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4657" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Juan Uribe's wrist injury was not as serious as originally thought.
7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Brad Peacock, SP, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29806/jarrod-parker')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29806" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jarrod Parker got the first call in Oakland and pitched well, leaving Peacock still waiting his turn.
8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29564/welington-castillo">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...29564/welington-castillo')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29564" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Welington Castillo, C, Cubs (at Triple-A Iowa): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6428" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Geovany Soto is not hitting, which doesn't help his trade value, and benching him would hurt it even more.
9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (at Triple-A Round Rock): He's still hitting (.329 batting average, three home runs, five stolen bases), but there's no need to rock the boat on a team as good as Texas.
11. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31091/julio-teheran">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31091/julio-teheran')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31091" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (at Triple-A Gwinnett): Just when he seemed to be putting things together, he didn't get out of the fifth inning Wednesday while walking four and striking out just one batter.
12. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (at Triple-A Syracuse): He finally hit his first home run Sunday, but it's going to take an extended hot streak at this point for the Nats to call on the 19-year-old phenom. Editor's note: Harper will be recalled on Saturday to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman on the Nats' roster.
[h3]Bonus round[/h3]
While it's likely none of these players will see the big leagues in 2012, you keeper-league owners should consider them good candidates for big stolen-base totals down the road.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds: The fastest player in the minors stole 11 bases in the past week alone and has 23 overall in 20 games while batting .377 for High-A Bakersfield.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Nationals: He has a line-drive bat but will need to improve his on-base skills to be useful. What he can do is run, as evidenced by his 16 stolen bases in 20 games for Double-A Harrisburg, while batting a lofty .356.
Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros: His father stole 463 bases in the big leagues, and this 2010 first-round pick has made some strides in his second season at Low-A Lexington, batting .266 with 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts.
[h3]1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Trout, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/laa/los-angeles-angels')">Los Angeles Angels (Last week's rank: 1)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Salt Lake): 8-for-17 (.471), 6 RBIs, 2 SB
Season totals: .403-1-13, 6 SB in 20 games
Update: Um, Angels, you are 6-13 in a year with high expectations. Mike Trout is awesome and can help turn things around immediately. We know it's going to require a difficult decision involving veterans who are owed big money, but it's all about winning, right?
What he can do: Trout would help the Angels and your fantasy team immediately. He can hit, he can run and he has a bit of pop. Unless your league heavily values hit-by-pitch and double-play balls, this is your guy. Editor's note: Trout was called up to the Angels late Friday, and could play this weekend versus the Indians.
[h3]2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 6)[/h3]
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Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesNolan Arenado is proving he's big league-ready at Double-A.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 7-for-25 (.280), 4 RBIs
Season totals: .342-1-13 in 20 games
Update: Remember when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30156/chris-nelson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30156/chris-nelson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30156" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Nelson looked great at the plate and was flirting with a .300 average? Well, that time has officially passed, and now the Rockies don't have a competent third baseman. Well, actually they do. His last name is Arenado, and he just keeps raking at Double-A.
What he can do: Arenado's sublime ability to make contact, along with playing in Coors Field, should lead to a good batting average right away, although for now his power could be limited to the doubles category.
[h3]3. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Travis Snider, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 8-for-24 (.333), HR, 5 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .400-4-23, 2 SBs in 19 games
Update: While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Eric Thames' bat has come alive a bit, what you are seeing now is his peak value, and his defense has been far from stellar. It's time to fish or cut bait with Snider, whom scouts love, even though he has never quite conquered big league pitching. Could now be the time? Update: Snider was removed from Thursday night's game because of a wrist strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it could delay things.
What he can do: Hit for average, get on base and hit for power. Well, at least that's what he has always done in the minor leagues. At some point, it has to translate, right?
[h3]4. Pat Corbin, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ari/arizona-diamondbacks')">Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 IP, 25 K's
Update: With http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30376" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"
aniel Hudson on the disabled list and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31090/josh-collmenter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/31090/josh-collmenter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31090" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Collmenter quickly turning back into a pumpkin, the D-backs have to be close to pulling from their impressive minor league pitching depth. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are better prospects, but Corbin might be the most big league-ready at this time.What he can do: Corbin is not a future star, but he throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with a very good changeup. He'd likely deliver a good number of quality starts, but few dominating ones.
[h3]5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29402/matt-laporta">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29402/matt-laporta')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29402" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Matt LaPorta, 1B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indians">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/cle/cleveland-indians')">Cleveland Indians (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 9-for-16 (.563), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .364-5-12 in 17 games
Update: LaPorta was the big prize in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4553" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">CC Sabathia trade four years ago, but he has never lived up to expectations. Well, all of a sudden, he's crushing Triple-A pitching just like he has in the past, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5918/casey-kotchman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5918/casey-kotchman')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5918" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Casey Kotchman's poor start could lead to another chance for him.
What he can do: If you have a taste for risk, LaPorta could be an interesting play. He was a first-round pick and former stud prospect for a reason, but he's just as likely to flame out again as he is to start hitting.
[h3]6. Matt Harvey, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets (Last week: unranked)[/h3]Last week's stats (at Triple-A Buffalo): 13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 15 K's
Season totals: 2-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 26 IP, 24 K's
Update: Consider this a pre-emptive call. Harvey likely won't be called up immediately, but he's in position to take advantage of http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28507" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Pelfrey (elbow) hitting the shelf for what looks like an extended period of time. After a slow start at Triple-A, he's suddenly missing plenty of bats.
What he can do: The Mets likely want Harvey to settle in at Triple-A before calling him up, but note that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32025/chris-schwinden">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32025/chris-schwinden')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32025" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Schwinden is merely a placeholder. Upon his call-up, Harvey could rack up strikeouts immediately with both his fastball and slider, but when it comes to command and control, he's not quite there yet.
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Tony Farlow/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesDanny Hultzen is fairly polilshed for a 22-year-old.
[h3]7. Danny Hultzen, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 26 K's
Update: The Mariners have the best minor league rotation in the game at Double-A Jackson. Meanwhile, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3687/kevin-millwood">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3687/kevin-millwood')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3687" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Millwood looks old, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30502/hector-noesi">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30502/hector-noesi')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30502" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Hector Noesi looks better suited for bullpen work. One of the reasons Hultzen was the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft was because he was the most big league-ready player on the board, and he has been pitching like it of late.
What he can do: Hultzen has more polish than stuff, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter. He could need an adjustment period that involves getting knocked around a little while he learns how to use his stuff in the big leagues, but his stinginess when it comes to walks will help his cause.
[h3]8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29446/mark-melancon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29446/mark-melancon')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29446" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mark Melancon, RP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/bos/boston-red-sox')">Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's
Season totals (in minors): 2-2, SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3 1/3 IP, 6 K's
Update: Don't laugh. Yes, Melancon was awful with Boston, but this is a guy who was closing games in the big leagues last year, and he seems to have already found his stuff again in Pawtucket. He'll be back in Beantown soon.
What he can do: While it will take him awhile to earn ninth-inning trust again, Melancon should rack up plenty of strikeouts in a middle-innings role, with a good offense providing an excellent opportunity for vulture wins.
[h3]9. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 8-for-20 (.400), 4 HR, 11 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .377-9-27, 3 SB in 20 games
Update: Middlebrooks just keeps hitting. While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5375/kevin-youkilis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5375/kevin-youkilis')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5375" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Youkilis heating up is great news for the Red Sox, it's bad news for Middlebrooks, who seems stuck in the International League for the time being.
What he can do: Middlebrooks began the year as a pretty good third-base prospect, and now he's one of the best in baseball. But who knows when he will arrive?
[h3]10. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29486/chris-carter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29486/chris-carter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29486" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Carter, 1B/DH, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Sacramento): 9-for-25 (.360), 3 HR, 12 RBIs
Season totals: .291-4-19 in 19 games
Update: Carter has had plenty of big league opportunities and failed them all, but right-handed power often takes a long time to develop. A's starting first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6397" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"
aric Barton seems to be lost in the tall weeds at this point, and none of the team's DHs are hitting.What he can do: Carter has mammoth raw power, but it comes at a price, as he'll always rack up high strikeout totals that will keep his batting average down. You should not be surprised to learn that he has little speed.
[h3]11. Andrelton Simmons, SS, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mississippi): 10-for-28 (.357), 9 RBIs
Season totals: .299-0-10, 3 SB in 16 games
Update: Simmons battled with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Tyler Pastornicky right to the very end of spring training this year, but ultimately the Braves stuck to their plan and sent Simmons down. However, Pastornicky has failed to impress at the plate, and Simmons' ability to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense could get him a look should the Braves remain competitive in the National League East. Simmons won't exactly be called up soon, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
What he can do: Simmons has much more value in sim leagues due to his top-notch glove work, but he does have the speed to steal bases.
[h3]12. Mike Olt, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
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Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesMike Olt is a solid defender at third base.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Frisco): 7-for-28 (.250), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .243-5-10 in 19 games
Update: While there isn't much of a need to change anything with the Rangers these days, one point of weakness has been their production at first base, with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30452/mitch-moreland">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30452/mitch-moreland')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30452" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mitch Moreland hitting just .179. A third baseman by trade (and a plus one defensively), Olt has the offensive profile to fit either corner-infield spot and could be an internal answer if something doesn't arrive via the trade market in July.
What he can do: Olt has plenty of power and patience, but he could struggle to hit for average right away. Runs and RBIs could come in bunches simply by his being in the Rangers' explosive lineup.
[h3]Falling out of the ranks[/h3]
3. (last week's ranking) http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30892/garrett-richards">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30892/garrett-richards')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30892" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (at Triple-A Salt Lake): Richards certainly has done nothing wrong, but http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5026/jerome-williams">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/5026/jerome-williams')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5026" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jerome Williams has pitched well enough of late to hold on to the Angels' fifth-starter job.
4. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30523/lonnie-chisenhall">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30523/lonnie-chisenhall')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30523" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (at Triple-A Columbus): Chisenhall has slowed down at Triple-A, while Indians third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28468/jack-hannahan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28468/jack-hannahan')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28468" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jack Hannahan has heated up.
5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28614" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Fields, 3B, Dodgers (at Triple-A Albuquerque): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4657" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Juan Uribe's wrist injury was not as serious as originally thought.
7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Brad Peacock, SP, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29806/jarrod-parker')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29806" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jarrod Parker got the first call in Oakland and pitched well, leaving Peacock still waiting his turn.
8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29564/welington-castillo">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...29564/welington-castillo')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29564" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Welington Castillo, C, Cubs (at Triple-A Iowa): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6428" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Geovany Soto is not hitting, which doesn't help his trade value, and benching him would hurt it even more.
9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (at Triple-A Round Rock): He's still hitting (.329 batting average, three home runs, five stolen bases), but there's no need to rock the boat on a team as good as Texas.
11. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31091/julio-teheran">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31091/julio-teheran')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31091" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (at Triple-A Gwinnett): Just when he seemed to be putting things together, he didn't get out of the fifth inning Wednesday while walking four and striking out just one batter.
12. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (at Triple-A Syracuse): He finally hit his first home run Sunday, but it's going to take an extended hot streak at this point for the Nats to call on the 19-year-old phenom. Editor's note: Harper will be recalled on Saturday to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman on the Nats' roster.
[h3]Bonus round[/h3]
While it's likely none of these players will see the big leagues in 2012, you keeper-league owners should consider them good candidates for big stolen-base totals down the road.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds: The fastest player in the minors stole 11 bases in the past week alone and has 23 overall in 20 games while batting .377 for High-A Bakersfield.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Nationals: He has a line-drive bat but will need to improve his on-base skills to be useful. What he can do is run, as evidenced by his 16 stolen bases in 20 games for Double-A Harrisburg, while batting a lofty .356.
Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros: His father stole 463 bases in the big leagues, and this 2010 first-round pick has made some strides in his second season at Low-A Lexington, batting .266 with 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts.
Temper Harper expectations.
Spoiler [+]
Friday afternoon, the Washington Nationals announced that phenom Bryce Harper would be called up for his major league debut Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, taking the place on the roster vacated by the injured Ryan Zimmerman. The Nats have recent experience with quick promotions of all-world prodigies, having two years ago done the same with Stephen Strasburg.
While Strasburg's career went swimmingly right from the start -- with the exception of that pesky little major elbow surgery -- it would be smart to temper those Day One expectations from Harper. Very few players, even the best prospects in baseball, explode from the minors as fully-formed superstars.
The first thing to consider when predicting how Harper will fare in the short-term for the team is to remember that he's still just 19 and arguably the top prospect in baseball (and certainly in the Top 5); this reflects his advanced skills for his age and an extremely high ceiling more than his major league readiness at this very moment.
Harper's professional debut went as well as could be expected as he hit .318/.423/.554 for the Hagerstown Suns. That's full-season A-ball, but it's still just A-ball and his performance for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, a .256/.329/.395 line in 147 PA, was mostly impressive because of his extremely young age. Harper's performance for Syracuse this year, a .250/.333/.375 line in the early going, at least suggests -- with all the caveats of small sample sizes -- that he's not at the point right now where he's terrorizing Triple-A pitchers.
Spring training statistics are notoriously hard to use, but in this particular case, with such limited data available, it's at least worth noting that his spring performance -- a .690 OPS in 28 at-bats with 11 strikeouts -- doesn't actually scream that he's ready now. The ZiPS projection system loves Harper in 2014 and beyond and sees him developing into a major star, but for 2012, it only seems him as a .238/.317/.405 hitter, which isn't out of line with his performances in the high minors so far.
Even if Harper's only a .700 OPS hitter or right now, that's probably better than Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, but given his hype, inevitably some people will think of it as a major disappointment. That would be a mistake as lots of players that have been promoted aggressively struggle initially -- in fact, one could argue that a little dose of adversity could be a good thing for a player with such effortless talent.
Mike Trout was promoted aggressively as well and after a solid, but slightly underwhelming debut, is hitting .400 for Salt Lake and his star shines just as brightly. Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeno both improved rapidly after mixed reviews in the majors, both star outfielders that debuted at 19. Justin Upton hit .221/.283/.364 at 19, but was still a legitimate MVP candidate by 23. Another outfielder you may have heard of, one Willie Howard Mays, started his major league career going 1-for-26 and he turned out to be OK.
The Nats will give Harper plenty of playing time -- they're not going to call him up to sit on the bench -- but what we're going to be seeing in the next weeks is probably going to be the appetizer, not the main course. Whether a Washington Nationals fan, a Harper fantasy owner, or just a plain ol' fan of baseball, enjoy his debut, but temper your expectations.
While Strasburg's career went swimmingly right from the start -- with the exception of that pesky little major elbow surgery -- it would be smart to temper those Day One expectations from Harper. Very few players, even the best prospects in baseball, explode from the minors as fully-formed superstars.
The first thing to consider when predicting how Harper will fare in the short-term for the team is to remember that he's still just 19 and arguably the top prospect in baseball (and certainly in the Top 5); this reflects his advanced skills for his age and an extremely high ceiling more than his major league readiness at this very moment.
Harper's professional debut went as well as could be expected as he hit .318/.423/.554 for the Hagerstown Suns. That's full-season A-ball, but it's still just A-ball and his performance for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, a .256/.329/.395 line in 147 PA, was mostly impressive because of his extremely young age. Harper's performance for Syracuse this year, a .250/.333/.375 line in the early going, at least suggests -- with all the caveats of small sample sizes -- that he's not at the point right now where he's terrorizing Triple-A pitchers.
Spring training statistics are notoriously hard to use, but in this particular case, with such limited data available, it's at least worth noting that his spring performance -- a .690 OPS in 28 at-bats with 11 strikeouts -- doesn't actually scream that he's ready now. The ZiPS projection system loves Harper in 2014 and beyond and sees him developing into a major star, but for 2012, it only seems him as a .238/.317/.405 hitter, which isn't out of line with his performances in the high minors so far.
Even if Harper's only a .700 OPS hitter or right now, that's probably better than Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, but given his hype, inevitably some people will think of it as a major disappointment. That would be a mistake as lots of players that have been promoted aggressively struggle initially -- in fact, one could argue that a little dose of adversity could be a good thing for a player with such effortless talent.
Mike Trout was promoted aggressively as well and after a solid, but slightly underwhelming debut, is hitting .400 for Salt Lake and his star shines just as brightly. Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeno both improved rapidly after mixed reviews in the majors, both star outfielders that debuted at 19. Justin Upton hit .221/.283/.364 at 19, but was still a legitimate MVP candidate by 23. Another outfielder you may have heard of, one Willie Howard Mays, started his major league career going 1-for-26 and he turned out to be OK.
The Nats will give Harper plenty of playing time -- they're not going to call him up to sit on the bench -- but what we're going to be seeing in the next weeks is probably going to be the appetizer, not the main course. Whether a Washington Nationals fan, a Harper fantasy owner, or just a plain ol' fan of baseball, enjoy his debut, but temper your expectations.
Calling up Harper a risky move for Nats.
Spoiler [+]
Forgive me if I'm picturing Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo making the call to Syracuse to recall Bryce Harper while sitting in his chair and staring down the barrel of a gun held by the team's VP of sales.
[+] Enlarge
Daniel Shirey/US PresswireWashington's call-up of Harper could be seen as a panic move.
Harper has hit a combined .254/.330/.388, including a .174/.216/.275 line against lefties, across two levels above low-A (he also recorded four walks and 19 strikeouts against left-handed pitching in Double-A and Triple-A), and while his performance against right-handers at those levels is more than adequate for a player who's as old as your typical college freshman, it doesn't give us any reason to expect immediate success in the majors.
Harper made a lot of progress over the course of 2011, but in the Arizona Fall League his weakness against off-speed stuff was still evident, even if it was less than it was the year before. We have no evidence, statistical or otherwise, this spring to indicate that he's made those adjustments enough to be ready to produce in the majors. He will eventually do so -- of this I have little doubt -- but he had shown that Triple-A was a sufficient challenge for him, and there's no reason to recall him until he succeeds at that level.
This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A.
The Nationals could have recalled Tyler Moore, who's more of a bench bat but could provide some power in a part-time role, and doesn't carry the same risk -- if you screw up Tyler Moore, you've really lost nothing, but if you screw up Harper by thrusting him into a situation for which he's not fully prepared, the cost is enormous. He's not just one of the most hyped prospects of his generation, he's one of the best, and if Washington sets him back through an aggressive promotion, we are all worse off for it.
[+] Enlarge
Daniel Shirey/US PresswireWashington's call-up of Harper could be seen as a panic move.Harper has hit a combined .254/.330/.388, including a .174/.216/.275 line against lefties, across two levels above low-A (he also recorded four walks and 19 strikeouts against left-handed pitching in Double-A and Triple-A), and while his performance against right-handers at those levels is more than adequate for a player who's as old as your typical college freshman, it doesn't give us any reason to expect immediate success in the majors.
Harper made a lot of progress over the course of 2011, but in the Arizona Fall League his weakness against off-speed stuff was still evident, even if it was less than it was the year before. We have no evidence, statistical or otherwise, this spring to indicate that he's made those adjustments enough to be ready to produce in the majors. He will eventually do so -- of this I have little doubt -- but he had shown that Triple-A was a sufficient challenge for him, and there's no reason to recall him until he succeeds at that level.
This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A.
The Nationals could have recalled Tyler Moore, who's more of a bench bat but could provide some power in a part-time role, and doesn't carry the same risk -- if you screw up Tyler Moore, you've really lost nothing, but if you screw up Harper by thrusting him into a situation for which he's not fully prepared, the cost is enormous. He's not just one of the most hyped prospects of his generation, he's one of the best, and if Washington sets him back through an aggressive promotion, we are all worse off for it.
Triple Crown dreams for Kemp, Hamilton.
Spoiler [+]
ARLINGTON, Texas -- There have been plenty of instances when hitters have flirted with a Triple Crown since the last time somebody actually accomplished the feat (in 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski led the American League in batting average, home runs and RBIs). But eventually, those hitters faded, maybe because they weren't elite power hitters, or maybe they didn't have the speed to get a handful of needed infield hits to hold up their batting average. Maybe they just tired or got hurt.
In 2012, there are two excellent candidates for the Triple Crown -- maybe the best candidates since Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson and Willie Mays.
Matt Kemp has developed into an excellent hitter. There is no other NL player with his power, and he can run. Right now, Kemp is leading the NL batting race by 57 points: Kemp is batting .442, well ahead of David Wright (.385).
Kemp has 11 homers after ending one of the best games of the season with a home run Saturday; the players tied for second in this category have six.
Kemp has 24 RBIs and is tied with teammate Andre Ethier for the NL lead.
Oh, sure, there will be a time when Kemp will start getting the Barry Bonds treatment; it might be worth asking opposing managers why Kemp has only 11 walks to this point. But Kemp was pitched around a lot last year and still did significant damage.
In the bottom of the first inning Saturday, the Rays' Jeff Niemann battled Josh Hamilton through a long at-bat, throwing breaking balls and changeups and just one fastball -- before Hamilton flared a two-run single to left field.
Hamilton is third in the AL in batting average at .388; he's 15 points behind David Ortiz and Ryan Sweeney. Hamilton has nine homers, two more than any other AL hitter, and his 24 RBIs put him one ahead of second-place Nick Swisher.
Hamilton is one of the greatest athletes in the sport. He is fast, and he's a left-handed hitter, which gives him an inherent advantage on possible infield hits. He swings in the middle of what is a great lineup. He plays in an extraordinary hitters' park. "This place is a dream come true for a left-handed hitter," Luke Scott mentioned before Saturday's game.
And Hamilton has a whole lot at stake, with his free agency looming. If he has a great season, somebody might step up with a huge payday.
Kemp could be the first hitter in almost a half-century to win the Triple Crown; so could Hamilton.
Bryce Harper dazzled in his debut, writes Adam Kilgore.
Steve Garvey coached Harper when he was 15 years old.
Stephen Strasburg hasn't allowed a home run in his past 63 1/3 innings.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Strasburg held the Los Angeles Dodgers in check:
A. Strasburg's fastball averaged 96.6 mph, harder than his 95.4 mph average in his first four starts.
B. He struck out three hitters with his fastball, a season high.
C. Opposing hitters swung and missed 11 times at Strasburg's fastball in his first four starts; Dodgers hitters missed nine of Strasburg's fastballs Saturday, matching the career high Strasburg set in his major league debut in 2010.
D. Strasburg threw 30 curveballs, two shy of a career high, and matched a career low by throwing only four changeups.
E. Dodgers batters struck out five times against Strasburg's curveball, one shy of Strasburg's career high in that category.
F. He threw just one pitch out of a three-ball count, a career low.
G. Ten of the 16 balls the Dodgers put in play against Strasburg were grounders, the third-highest percentage of his career (62.5 percent).
Colby Lewis made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what on Saturday, as Gerry Fraley writes. The Texas Rangers have been playing great defense, writes Richard Durrett.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Yu Darvish is already something of a legend, because of his path to the big leagues and his early-season performance and his repertoire.
His right-handed repertoire, that is. Because he apparently can throw the hell out of the ball left-handed, too.
Darvish long-tosses left-handed -- perhaps up to 250 feet, general manager Jon Daniels guess-timated. He spins breaking balls left-handed -- because he likes the balance it seems to provide for him. And he throws hard. "I'd bet he can throw about 88 mph," said Derek Holland, Darvish's catching partner. "It's firm."
Mike Napoli, who caught Darvish in his last start, has eight different signs for the right-hander, because of all of his different pitches -- a set of signs that Darvish provided for him, including the upside down "L." Napoli ran through the signs Saturday for a reporter, pausing only once to make sure he was giving the right signal. "It's really not that tough," he said.
As Darvish warms up for a game in the bullpen, he will throw most of those eight pitches -- but not his hard curveball, perhaps because his best feel for the ball seems to be how to spin it, Napoli speculated. "He can really put hard spin on it," said Napoli.
• In the midst of a spring training workout this year, the Rays' staff and players spoke extensively about the team's intention to focus even more on shifting fielders in their defensive positioning. The Rays are pioneers in this, and they've dramatically ramped up their use of acute alignments. We'll have a lot more on this during Sunday Night Baseball this evening.
• The Baltimore Orioles continue to roll: They shut down the Oakland Athletics.
• Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list. It's damage control time again for Dave Dombrowski, writes Drew Sharp. The arrest raises questions about Young as he nears free agency, writes John Lowe. It might be wise for the Detroit Tigers to move on without him, writes Lynn Henning.
• From Elias: The Pittsburgh Pirates are the first team since the 1972 Brewers to score five runs or fewer in the first 20 games of the season. The 1972 Brewers set the MLB record by scoring five runs or fewer in their first 31 games.
The Pirates haven't been drawing walks, Michael Sanserino writes. The Pirates' struggles are in line with an NL trend, writes Karen Price.
• The Cleveland Indians have gone 10 straight games without a home run, marking their longest such streak since 1983. They went 14 games without a long ball from April 10-27 of that year.
• Giancarlo Stanton is struggling because he's been chasing pitches out of the zone, says Ozzie Guillen. Some rival evaluators believe that Stanton is really struggling to get to inside pitches. "He is really caught in-between right now," said an assistant GM.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will know more on Chase Utley is a week, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. Brett Gardner is making progress.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid rehab outing, Dan Hickling writes.
4. Lance Berkman will test his calf today, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Jeremy Guthrie, hurt in a bike accident, played catch.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's unclear whether Freddy Garcia will make his next start, after he got hammered again. David Phelps could be the guy to take his place, Anthony McCarron writes. It's time for Joe Girardi to drop Garcia, writes David Lennon.
2. The Boston Red Sox will have to make a decision on Aaron Cook this week.
3. The Reds' catchers continue to split playing time.
4. Jason Kipnis likes hitting in the No. 2 spot.
5. Geovany Soto is hanging onto his spot, for now.
6. Tim Hudson will be activated today, and there is word from Carroll Rogers here who will be sent down to make room.
7. The Houston Astros called up pitcher Jordan Lyles.
8. Pat Corbin is replacing Josh Collmenter in the Arizona rotation.
9. Mike Trout was recalled and placed in the leadoff spot. It feels like the Angels are all over the place right now in trying to evaluate who to play and when.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. The Red Sox remained perfect for the week, this time with a lot of help from Jon Lester.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lester beat the Chicago White Sox:
A. Lester threw 21 changeups, all to right-handed hitters, matching his most in a start in the last four seasons. White Sox hitters swung at 15 of the 21, missing seven. They were 1-for-6 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Lester's changeup. Sixteen of the 21 (76.2 percent) were down in the zone or below it.
B. Helped by throwing so many changeups, 68 of Lester's 122 pitches (55.7 percent) were down in the zone or below it, higher than his average of 41.7 percent since 2009.
C. White Sox hitters were 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a low pitch from Lester.
2. Jimmy Rollins returned to the leadoff spot, and the Phillies won, Marc Narducci writes.
3. Erik Bedard picked up his first win, Bill Brink writes.
4. The New York Mets held a lead, writes Andrew Keh.
5. Edwin Encarnacion clubbed a big grand slam for the Toronto Blue Jays. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
6. Drew Smyly shut down the New York Yankees.
7. A rainout really helped the Kansas City bullpen.
8. Yadier Molina just seems to keep getting better and better and better as a hitter, and on Saturday, he saw a total of five pitches while getting four hits. Mike Matheny stuck with Kyle Lohse in a big spot.
9. Johnny Cueto was The Man for the Cincinnati Reds.
10. The Indians weren't able to pull out a close one.
11. Jake Peavy was superb, but the White Sox still lost, Dave van Dyck writes.
12. Randy Wells couldn't survive the fourth inning.
13. The Milwaukee Brewers made a lot of mistakes.
14. Hanley Ramirez gave the Miami Marlins a big lift.
15. It all got away from the Rays in the middle innings.
16. Randall Delgado had a tough day.
17. The Astros suffered a lopsided defeat.
18. A newcomer struggled in his debut for the Colorado Rockies.
19. Tim Lincecum pitched his best game of the year, John Shea writes.
20. The Seattle Mariners were shut down by a former Mariner.
21. Anthony Bass threw well, but the Padres lost, Chris Jenkins writes.
22. Dan Haren ended the Angels' losing streak.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats and Info:
0: Walks issued by Morrow, the first time he's posted that number in 76 career starts.
1: The number of line drives allowed by Lincecum; he had allowed 21 in his first four starts.
4: Walk-off home runs for Kemp since the start of 2011, two more than anyone else in baseball.
10: Runs by the Orioles (a season high) after averaging 3.0 runs per game in the previous 10 games.
1,000: Career walks for Derek Jeter, as he becomes the 21st player with 3,000 hits and 1,000 walks.
In 2012, there are two excellent candidates for the Triple Crown -- maybe the best candidates since Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson and Willie Mays.
Matt Kemp has developed into an excellent hitter. There is no other NL player with his power, and he can run. Right now, Kemp is leading the NL batting race by 57 points: Kemp is batting .442, well ahead of David Wright (.385).
Kemp has 11 homers after ending one of the best games of the season with a home run Saturday; the players tied for second in this category have six.
Kemp has 24 RBIs and is tied with teammate Andre Ethier for the NL lead.
Oh, sure, there will be a time when Kemp will start getting the Barry Bonds treatment; it might be worth asking opposing managers why Kemp has only 11 walks to this point. But Kemp was pitched around a lot last year and still did significant damage.
In the bottom of the first inning Saturday, the Rays' Jeff Niemann battled Josh Hamilton through a long at-bat, throwing breaking balls and changeups and just one fastball -- before Hamilton flared a two-run single to left field.
Hamilton is third in the AL in batting average at .388; he's 15 points behind David Ortiz and Ryan Sweeney. Hamilton has nine homers, two more than any other AL hitter, and his 24 RBIs put him one ahead of second-place Nick Swisher.
Hamilton is one of the greatest athletes in the sport. He is fast, and he's a left-handed hitter, which gives him an inherent advantage on possible infield hits. He swings in the middle of what is a great lineup. He plays in an extraordinary hitters' park. "This place is a dream come true for a left-handed hitter," Luke Scott mentioned before Saturday's game.
And Hamilton has a whole lot at stake, with his free agency looming. If he has a great season, somebody might step up with a huge payday.
Kemp could be the first hitter in almost a half-century to win the Triple Crown; so could Hamilton.
Bryce Harper dazzled in his debut, writes Adam Kilgore.
Steve Garvey coached Harper when he was 15 years old.
Stephen Strasburg hasn't allowed a home run in his past 63 1/3 innings.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Strasburg held the Los Angeles Dodgers in check:
A. Strasburg's fastball averaged 96.6 mph, harder than his 95.4 mph average in his first four starts.
B. He struck out three hitters with his fastball, a season high.
C. Opposing hitters swung and missed 11 times at Strasburg's fastball in his first four starts; Dodgers hitters missed nine of Strasburg's fastballs Saturday, matching the career high Strasburg set in his major league debut in 2010.
D. Strasburg threw 30 curveballs, two shy of a career high, and matched a career low by throwing only four changeups.
E. Dodgers batters struck out five times against Strasburg's curveball, one shy of Strasburg's career high in that category.
F. He threw just one pitch out of a three-ball count, a career low.
G. Ten of the 16 balls the Dodgers put in play against Strasburg were grounders, the third-highest percentage of his career (62.5 percent).
Colby Lewis made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what on Saturday, as Gerry Fraley writes. The Texas Rangers have been playing great defense, writes Richard Durrett.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Yu Darvish is already something of a legend, because of his path to the big leagues and his early-season performance and his repertoire.
His right-handed repertoire, that is. Because he apparently can throw the hell out of the ball left-handed, too.
Darvish long-tosses left-handed -- perhaps up to 250 feet, general manager Jon Daniels guess-timated. He spins breaking balls left-handed -- because he likes the balance it seems to provide for him. And he throws hard. "I'd bet he can throw about 88 mph," said Derek Holland, Darvish's catching partner. "It's firm."
Mike Napoli, who caught Darvish in his last start, has eight different signs for the right-hander, because of all of his different pitches -- a set of signs that Darvish provided for him, including the upside down "L." Napoli ran through the signs Saturday for a reporter, pausing only once to make sure he was giving the right signal. "It's really not that tough," he said.
As Darvish warms up for a game in the bullpen, he will throw most of those eight pitches -- but not his hard curveball, perhaps because his best feel for the ball seems to be how to spin it, Napoli speculated. "He can really put hard spin on it," said Napoli.
• In the midst of a spring training workout this year, the Rays' staff and players spoke extensively about the team's intention to focus even more on shifting fielders in their defensive positioning. The Rays are pioneers in this, and they've dramatically ramped up their use of acute alignments. We'll have a lot more on this during Sunday Night Baseball this evening.
• The Baltimore Orioles continue to roll: They shut down the Oakland Athletics.
• Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list. It's damage control time again for Dave Dombrowski, writes Drew Sharp. The arrest raises questions about Young as he nears free agency, writes John Lowe. It might be wise for the Detroit Tigers to move on without him, writes Lynn Henning.
• From Elias: The Pittsburgh Pirates are the first team since the 1972 Brewers to score five runs or fewer in the first 20 games of the season. The 1972 Brewers set the MLB record by scoring five runs or fewer in their first 31 games.
The Pirates haven't been drawing walks, Michael Sanserino writes. The Pirates' struggles are in line with an NL trend, writes Karen Price.
• The Cleveland Indians have gone 10 straight games without a home run, marking their longest such streak since 1983. They went 14 games without a long ball from April 10-27 of that year.
• Giancarlo Stanton is struggling because he's been chasing pitches out of the zone, says Ozzie Guillen. Some rival evaluators believe that Stanton is really struggling to get to inside pitches. "He is really caught in-between right now," said an assistant GM.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will know more on Chase Utley is a week, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. Brett Gardner is making progress.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid rehab outing, Dan Hickling writes.
4. Lance Berkman will test his calf today, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Jeremy Guthrie, hurt in a bike accident, played catch.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's unclear whether Freddy Garcia will make his next start, after he got hammered again. David Phelps could be the guy to take his place, Anthony McCarron writes. It's time for Joe Girardi to drop Garcia, writes David Lennon.
2. The Boston Red Sox will have to make a decision on Aaron Cook this week.
3. The Reds' catchers continue to split playing time.
4. Jason Kipnis likes hitting in the No. 2 spot.
5. Geovany Soto is hanging onto his spot, for now.
6. Tim Hudson will be activated today, and there is word from Carroll Rogers here who will be sent down to make room.
7. The Houston Astros called up pitcher Jordan Lyles.
8. Pat Corbin is replacing Josh Collmenter in the Arizona rotation.
9. Mike Trout was recalled and placed in the leadoff spot. It feels like the Angels are all over the place right now in trying to evaluate who to play and when.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. The Red Sox remained perfect for the week, this time with a lot of help from Jon Lester.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lester beat the Chicago White Sox:
A. Lester threw 21 changeups, all to right-handed hitters, matching his most in a start in the last four seasons. White Sox hitters swung at 15 of the 21, missing seven. They were 1-for-6 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Lester's changeup. Sixteen of the 21 (76.2 percent) were down in the zone or below it.
B. Helped by throwing so many changeups, 68 of Lester's 122 pitches (55.7 percent) were down in the zone or below it, higher than his average of 41.7 percent since 2009.
C. White Sox hitters were 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a low pitch from Lester.
2. Jimmy Rollins returned to the leadoff spot, and the Phillies won, Marc Narducci writes.
3. Erik Bedard picked up his first win, Bill Brink writes.
4. The New York Mets held a lead, writes Andrew Keh.
5. Edwin Encarnacion clubbed a big grand slam for the Toronto Blue Jays. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
6. Drew Smyly shut down the New York Yankees.
7. A rainout really helped the Kansas City bullpen.
8. Yadier Molina just seems to keep getting better and better and better as a hitter, and on Saturday, he saw a total of five pitches while getting four hits. Mike Matheny stuck with Kyle Lohse in a big spot.
9. Johnny Cueto was The Man for the Cincinnati Reds.
10. The Indians weren't able to pull out a close one.
11. Jake Peavy was superb, but the White Sox still lost, Dave van Dyck writes.
12. Randy Wells couldn't survive the fourth inning.
13. The Milwaukee Brewers made a lot of mistakes.
14. Hanley Ramirez gave the Miami Marlins a big lift.
15. It all got away from the Rays in the middle innings.
16. Randall Delgado had a tough day.
17. The Astros suffered a lopsided defeat.
18. A newcomer struggled in his debut for the Colorado Rockies.
19. Tim Lincecum pitched his best game of the year, John Shea writes.
20. The Seattle Mariners were shut down by a former Mariner.
21. Anthony Bass threw well, but the Padres lost, Chris Jenkins writes.
22. Dan Haren ended the Angels' losing streak.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats and Info:
0: Walks issued by Morrow, the first time he's posted that number in 76 career starts.
1: The number of line drives allowed by Lincecum; he had allowed 21 in his first four starts.
4: Walk-off home runs for Kemp since the start of 2011, two more than anyone else in baseball.
10: Runs by the Orioles (a season high) after averaging 3.0 runs per game in the previous 10 games.
1,000: Career walks for Derek Jeter, as he becomes the 21st player with 3,000 hits and 1,000 walks.
A race for MLB's worst division.
A positive change for David Price.
Rays bucking offensive trend.
Appel still flirting with No. 1 status.
Top '12 for 2012: Arenado up to No. 2.
Temper Harper expectations.
Calling up Harper a risky move for Nats.
Triple Crown dreams for Kemp, Hamilton.
Spoiler [+]
A month of baseball is in the books, and we can see some trends starting to emerge now that all teams have played at least 12 percent of their schedules. And just as has been the case the past couple of seasons, the Central divisions are once again bringing up the rear. The question is, which division -- the AL or NL version -- is the worst in the game?
Both divisions make strong cases. For the season, the two easily have the worst average ranking in the ESPN Power Rankings, and this week Central teams occupy five of the bottom 10 spots in the rankings. In terms of average rank, the NL Central ranks slightly worse both this week and for the season, as well (see chart).
[h4]MLB's top divisions[/h4]
The average ranking of each division thus far this season in ESPN.com's MLB Power Rankings.
[table][tr][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Average rank
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
AL East
[/td][td]
10.52
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL East
[/td][td]
12.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL West
[/td][td]
15.45
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL West
[/td][td]
15.60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL Central
[/td][td]
17.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL Central
[/td][td]
19.73
[/td][/tr][/table]
Going back to last season though, the AL Central was slightly worse from an objective perspective. Looking at average wins above replacement per division, the AL Central finished last with an average team WAR of 35.5, while the NL Central came in next-to-last at 36.0. That's essentially a negligible difference, but the difference between the AL Central's minus-49.8 run differential was slightly larger than that of the NL Central, which had a minus-36.2 average run differential.
This year has been the same story.
Entering Sunday's action, the AL Central had an average WAR of 4.22 and an average run differential of minus-12.6, while the NL Central stood at 4.87 and minus-0.83, respectively. Only one team in the AL Central has a positive run differential, and at plus-3, the Chicago White Sox's differential is hardly exemplary. There isn't one team in the AL Central that would qualify as complete.
Chicago has enjoyed good pitching thus far, but even with the inevitable rebounds from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the team's hitting is still a problem. The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins have had average or better offenses, but their pitching has been poor. The Cleveland Indians have hit, but their fielding and pitching rank in the bottom third of the game. And while the Detroit Tigers had a bit of a breakdown this past week at the hands of the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, and should get back to pitching and hitting well fairly soon, the team's fielding will remain a weakness.
The NL Central is just as gloomy. The powerful Milwaukee Brewers -- who last season had one of the better pitching staffs in the game -- have allowed the most runs in the NL. And while they should rebound, they will have to work a little bit harder to do so now that Chris Narveson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn rotator cuff. The Houston Astros have actually hit and fielded at an average rate as a team, though Houston's .320 BABIP as a team -- and in particular the .435 and .385 marks that youngsters Jose Altuve and Jordan Schafer, respectively, are sporting -- indicate that regression is coming.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping runs off the board thanks to good pitching and fielding, but they have tallied two or fewer runs in more than half of their games this season. The Chicago Cubs aren't fielding poorly, but outside of Starlin Castro's stolen base explosion, little else has gone right for the North Siders. The Cincinnati Reds are pitching fairly well, but the team's fielding -- a big strength the past three seasons -- has been subpar in the early going, and the offense is essentially a three-man show. No one outside of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips has produced league-average numbers offensively for Cincy.
That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second this week. The Cardinals are the one team among the 11 Central teams that is chugging full-speed ahead on all cylinders, with a top-five offense and pitching staff and a top-10 group of fielders. But outside of their bizarre one-game series with the Miami Marlins to kick off the 2012 season, St. Louis has played only NL Central teams.
St. Louis has played 22 of its 23 games against teams in its division; the next closest team in terms of intra-divisions games, the San Diego Padres, has played 16 of its 23 games within its division. As a result, St. Louis' strength of schedule ranks just 24th. That is a definitive red flag, but it alone doesn't discredit the Cardinals, who haven't just been beating their NL Central foes, but have rather been beating up on them.
The club's expected winning percentage is first in baseball, it has won by six or more runs in six different games already, and overall St. Louis has scored the fourth most runs in the game. And with Lance Berkman and Allen Craig out for most or all of the month, the Cardinals have done so at less than full strength, but that may soon change, as the club could have both back in the fold by week's end.
So neither Central division has covered itself in glory thus far, and while teams like the Reds, Tigers and Brewers are not playing to their potential, the dregs of the two divisions will continue to drag them down. The Cardinals stand out as a beacon of light amongst a sea of mediocrity, however, and while their first out-of-division test won't come for another week, their play holds the NL Central high enough to keep the title of baseball's worst division firmly planted, once again, on the AL Central's mantle.
Both divisions make strong cases. For the season, the two easily have the worst average ranking in the ESPN Power Rankings, and this week Central teams occupy five of the bottom 10 spots in the rankings. In terms of average rank, the NL Central ranks slightly worse both this week and for the season, as well (see chart).
[h4]MLB's top divisions[/h4]
The average ranking of each division thus far this season in ESPN.com's MLB Power Rankings.
[table][tr][th=""]
Division
[/th][th=""]
Average rank
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
AL East
[/td][td]
10.52
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL East
[/td][td]
12.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL West
[/td][td]
15.45
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL West
[/td][td]
15.60
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
AL Central
[/td][td]
17.92
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
NL Central
[/td][td]
19.73
[/td][/tr][/table]
Going back to last season though, the AL Central was slightly worse from an objective perspective. Looking at average wins above replacement per division, the AL Central finished last with an average team WAR of 35.5, while the NL Central came in next-to-last at 36.0. That's essentially a negligible difference, but the difference between the AL Central's minus-49.8 run differential was slightly larger than that of the NL Central, which had a minus-36.2 average run differential.
This year has been the same story.
Entering Sunday's action, the AL Central had an average WAR of 4.22 and an average run differential of minus-12.6, while the NL Central stood at 4.87 and minus-0.83, respectively. Only one team in the AL Central has a positive run differential, and at plus-3, the Chicago White Sox's differential is hardly exemplary. There isn't one team in the AL Central that would qualify as complete.
Chicago has enjoyed good pitching thus far, but even with the inevitable rebounds from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios, the team's hitting is still a problem. The Kansas City Royals and Minnesota Twins have had average or better offenses, but their pitching has been poor. The Cleveland Indians have hit, but their fielding and pitching rank in the bottom third of the game. And while the Detroit Tigers had a bit of a breakdown this past week at the hands of the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees, and should get back to pitching and hitting well fairly soon, the team's fielding will remain a weakness.
The NL Central is just as gloomy. The powerful Milwaukee Brewers -- who last season had one of the better pitching staffs in the game -- have allowed the most runs in the NL. And while they should rebound, they will have to work a little bit harder to do so now that Chris Narveson will miss the remainder of the season due to a torn rotator cuff. The Houston Astros have actually hit and fielded at an average rate as a team, though Houston's .320 BABIP as a team -- and in particular the .435 and .385 marks that youngsters Jose Altuve and Jordan Schafer, respectively, are sporting -- indicate that regression is coming.
The Pittsburgh Pirates are keeping runs off the board thanks to good pitching and fielding, but they have tallied two or fewer runs in more than half of their games this season. The Chicago Cubs aren't fielding poorly, but outside of Starlin Castro's stolen base explosion, little else has gone right for the North Siders. The Cincinnati Reds are pitching fairly well, but the team's fielding -- a big strength the past three seasons -- has been subpar in the early going, and the offense is essentially a three-man show. No one outside of Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Brandon Phillips has produced league-average numbers offensively for Cincy.
That leaves the St. Louis Cardinals, who rank second this week. The Cardinals are the one team among the 11 Central teams that is chugging full-speed ahead on all cylinders, with a top-five offense and pitching staff and a top-10 group of fielders. But outside of their bizarre one-game series with the Miami Marlins to kick off the 2012 season, St. Louis has played only NL Central teams.
St. Louis has played 22 of its 23 games against teams in its division; the next closest team in terms of intra-divisions games, the San Diego Padres, has played 16 of its 23 games within its division. As a result, St. Louis' strength of schedule ranks just 24th. That is a definitive red flag, but it alone doesn't discredit the Cardinals, who haven't just been beating their NL Central foes, but have rather been beating up on them.
The club's expected winning percentage is first in baseball, it has won by six or more runs in six different games already, and overall St. Louis has scored the fourth most runs in the game. And with Lance Berkman and Allen Craig out for most or all of the month, the Cardinals have done so at less than full strength, but that may soon change, as the club could have both back in the fold by week's end.
So neither Central division has covered itself in glory thus far, and while teams like the Reds, Tigers and Brewers are not playing to their potential, the dregs of the two divisions will continue to drag them down. The Cardinals stand out as a beacon of light amongst a sea of mediocrity, however, and while their first out-of-division test won't come for another week, their play holds the NL Central high enough to keep the title of baseball's worst division firmly planted, once again, on the AL Central's mantle.
A positive change for David Price.
Spoiler [+]
ARLINGTON, Texas -- We had such great plans on "Sunday Night Baseball" to demonstrate baseball's trendsetters at work. The Tampa Bay Rays have taken the use of defensive shifts to the next level this year -- employing the alignments six times more than they did a year ago -- and the numbers show that other teams are following their lead.
But then the Rays used only one shift in their victory against the Texas Rangers on Sunday night, in a game that became more about David Price's recent trend of relying on -- and trusting -- a devastating changeup. The Tampa Bay left-hander went into the game winless in six decisions against the Rangers, with a 5.30 ERA, and in each instance in which he was in serious trouble last night, he steered grittily with his off-speed stuff.
Price had a 5-2 lead and had thrown 104 pitches as the bottom of the seventh inning began, and after Mike Napoli singled to lead off, Rays manager Joe Maddon could have relieved Price. Joel Peralta was warmed up and ready to go in the visitors' bullpen.
But Maddon stuck with Price to face Yorvit Torrealba, a noted fastball hitter, and Torrealba worked himself into what seemed to be a great situation to get a fastball: The count was full at 3-2, and if Price had walked Torrealba, he would have brought the tying run to the plate.
Price threw an excellent changeup, however, and Torrealba swung through it, appearing totally shocked by the pitch selection. In his last two starts, Price has used his changeup more than ever before in his career -- and on Sunday, he helped the Rays win a series that had an October feel to it.
If the two teams meet in the playoffs this year, maybe the Rays will use the defensive shift more, because it has been a weapon for them early this season, as the numbers show. Tampa Bay -- maybe the most progressive of all organizations -- would probably prefer that everybody look in the other direction, as if there was nothing to see.
But on one of the first days of spring training, the Rays' coaching staff spoke at length with the players and told them they intended to use the shift a lot more this season, particularly against right-handed hitters, and with Maddon and coaches Dave Martinez and Tom Foley doing the selling, the players have bought in.
In preparation for "Sunday Night Baseball," Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN Stats & Information compiled these stats on the Rays' shifty ways, based on data from Baseball Info Solutions:
[h4]Infield shifting[/h4]
The teams with the most infield shifts so far this season.
[table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Shifts
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
125<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
50
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
44
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
43
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
41
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>62 vs RHB, 63 vs LHB[/td][/tr][/table]
The Rays' infield is shifting at a record pace. They are already more than halfway to their 2011 shift total, which led the majors (see chart).
Baseball Info Solutions' definition of shift: There must be three infielders positioned on one side of a base, or the third infielder should be playing directly behind second base.
The huge spike in shifts is largely due to shifting on right-handed hitters this season. In 2010, only 4 percent of the Rays' shifts were against right-handed batters. Last season, it was 7 percent. So far in 2012? It's 49.6 percent. The Rays have 43 more shifts against right-handed batters than the next-highest team (Milwaukee).
The Rays don't like to talk in specifics about their shifting, but here are some of their remarks to the media about it:
Maddon: "Everyone talks about taking risks on offense, but we want to be aggressive on defense."
Rays shortstop Sean Rodriguez: "It just makes sense. A guy like A-Rod is not normally used to getting shifted against. If you think about it, they're trying to pull wide, because they're trying to drive the ball into the gap or hit a home run. So even at best case, if they're swinging the bat well and they're like, 'I want to hit the ball to the four-hole because it's wide open,' well, that's fine, because he's not going to beat us on the basepaths. So we'll take that single over him actually trying to drive that ball, so we've taken him out of his game plan. He's thinking about hitting singles instead of hitting doubles or home runs."
GM Andrew Friedman: "There are very few things we can answer in this game that are 100 percent. It's just playing the odds and shifting things ever so slightly and hope that over the course of time it helps us some."
Nick Swisher: "That's the first time I've seen a shift like that. Righties, lefties; it doesn't really matter. It feels like there's 15 guys on the right side of the infield or the left side of the infield."
Mark Teixeira: "I guess if you spend all winter looking at numbers, you can convince yourself to play it against everybody. Call me crazy, but I'm surprised people don't play four outfielders sometimes."
• Last season, the Rays ranked first in MLB in defensive runs saved (plus-85) and defensive efficiency (72.8 percent of balls in play converted into outs). Opponents hit .222 on ground balls; league average was .237.
Quick hits on shifts from the Fielding Bible:
• First known shift: July 14, 1946 vs. Ted Williams. He walked on four pitches.
• Under Ken Macha in 2010, the Brewers shifted 22 times. Last season under Ron Roenicke, it was 170 times. So was there a noticeable difference? In 2010, opponents hit .253 on grounders. In 2011, that fell to .228.
• The player most impacted by shifts has been Ryan Howard. Since 2010, he's hit .317 with no shift and .177 with the shift on.
In my opinion: The Brewers' use of the shift is directly related to the fact that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin -- a longtime evaluator and scout -- is as open-minded to new information and metrics as any executive in the sport.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Tampa Bay's schedule in April was brutal, yet the Rays are in excellent standing, as Joe Smith writes.
• Before Sunday's game, Texas manager Ron Washington described how Josh Hamilton came into this season on a mission, intent on playing in a whole lot of games; 156 was the specific number Hamilton mentioned to his manager. But Hamilton might have to miss some games after tweaking his back.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't saying Kenley Jansen is the closer, but … he pitched in the closer's spot Sunday. Javy Guerra got up in the ninth inning. In short, it appears the job of Dodger closer is up for grabs right now.
• From ESPN Stats and Info: Josh Thole became the 327th different player to homer off Jamie Moyer. Thole was born Oct. 28, 1986, and Moyer had already given up 10 career home runs by that day.
[h4]A-Rod's milestone[/h4]
The top 10 players in career runs batted in since RBI became an official stat in 1920.
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
RBIs
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Hank Aaron
[/td][td]
2,297
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Barry Bonds
[/td][td]
1,996
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Lou Gehrig
[/td][td]
1,994
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Babe Ruth
[/td][td]
1,988
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Stan Musial
[/td][td]
1,950
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Jimmie Foxx
[/td][td]
1,924
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Eddie Murray
[/td][td]
1,917
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
1,904
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Willie Mays
[/td][td]
1,903
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Mel Ott
[/td][td]
1,864
[/td][/tr][/table]
• CC Sabathia shut down the Detroit Tigers, while a teammate passed a milestone.
From ESPN Stats & Info: With his second-inning single Sunday, Alex Rodriguez drove in his 1,903rd career run, tying him for eighth on the all-time RBI list with Willie Mays. Rodriguez later tacked on another RBI to take sole possession of eighth (see chart).
• The Baltimore Orioles won again and lead the AL East with a 14-8 record. We're going to learn a whole lot more about Baltimore, because it is entering the gantlet: 15 straight games against the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Rays and Rangers. Jason Hammel gets the ball tonight; he's been pitching well, as Eduardo Encina writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge is set to join the Oakland Athletics. Since Scott Sizemore's injury, Oakland has basically been holding an open audition at third base, and Inge now will get his chance. If he hits, the job is his; if he doesn't, he could be looking at the end of his career. As Manny Ramirez will attest, Oakland can sometimes be the end of the earth. Inge is expected to join the Athletics in Boston today, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Johnny Damon is expected to join the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday.
3. Alex Anthopoulos still won't say what the Toronto Blue Jays bid on Yu Darvish. It was significantly less than what the Rangers bid. Toronto fans will get a chance to see Darvish pitch tonight.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is going to watch Vladimir Guerrero hit. The Diamondbacks have enough flexibility in their roster to make it happen, if they think Guerrero is worth the risk.
5. Freddy Garcia was moved to the Yankees' bullpen.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Scott Linebrink's shoulder is still bothering him.
2. Danny Duffy has been cleared to return to the KC rotation, as mentioned within this notebook.
3. Doug Fister is set for his first rehab start, as Shawn Windsor writes.
4. Joe Mauer got dinged by a foul ball.
5. The Mariners' George Sherrill will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Geoff Baker writes.
6. Kevin Youkilis missed Sunday's game with a stiff back.
7. Jayson Werth was scratched from the starting lineup.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Derek Lowe continues to shine for the Indians.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lowe shut down the Los Angeles Angels:
A) Threw 54 percent of pitches in the zone, including 61 percent to righties, his most in a game since September 2009, leading to more swings put in play (56 percent versus 46 percent last season).
B) He had 20 outs recorded by infielders (including one strikeout) versus only three by the outfield.
C) He retired 13 straight in the middle innings, including single-digit pitch counts in the fourth, fifth and sixth.
D) Right-handed hitters went 1-for-21 against Lowe, with the only hit belonging to Chris Iannetta in the eighth (the last batter Lowe faced).
2. An attempted double-steal by the St. Louis Cardinals -- which ended Sunday's defeat -- didn't go as planned, as Derrick Goold writes.
3. Bruce Chen got hit around, as Bob Dutton writes.
4. Max Scherzer had all kinds of command issues, as Lynn Henning writes. And Jim Leyland sort of put him on notice, indirectly. From Henning's story:
6. Matt Garza was The Man for the Chicago Cubs.
7. Gavin Floyd again flirted with a no-hitter, as Dave van Dyck writes.
8. The Milwaukee Brewers escaped with a victory.
9. Henderson Alvarez picked up his first win, as John Lott writes.
10. Todd Helton mashed a grand slam, but the Colorado Rockies couldn't take their comeback to the next level.
11. Wade Miley shut down the Miami Marlins.
12. Bartolo Colon was really good Sunday, before it all crumbled for the Athletics.
13. Madison Bumgarner closed out April with a win.
14. James Loney got a big hit for the Dodgers.
15. The Angels lost again. Bill Plunkett's first line in today's story: "If the Angels haven't hit rock bottom yet, it's only because they can't hit anything right now."
16. The San Diego Padres have yet to win a series, writes Chris Jenkins.
17. Johan Santana was excellent again, but the New York Mets had to scramble for the win.
18. The Red Sox closed out what was a strong road trip with a loss.
19. Tim Hudson came off the disabled list and delivered, as David O'Brien writes.
By The Numbers, from ESPN's Stats & Info:
4: no-hit bids Gavin Floyd has taken six or more innings, tied for second among active pitchers.
22: consecutive scoreless innings that Johan Santana has thrown against the Rockies.
48: consecutive batters with two strikes that went hitless against Gio Gonzalez until James Loney ended his streak.
88: consecutive at-bats Albert Pujols has gone without a home run.
But then the Rays used only one shift in their victory against the Texas Rangers on Sunday night, in a game that became more about David Price's recent trend of relying on -- and trusting -- a devastating changeup. The Tampa Bay left-hander went into the game winless in six decisions against the Rangers, with a 5.30 ERA, and in each instance in which he was in serious trouble last night, he steered grittily with his off-speed stuff.
Price had a 5-2 lead and had thrown 104 pitches as the bottom of the seventh inning began, and after Mike Napoli singled to lead off, Rays manager Joe Maddon could have relieved Price. Joel Peralta was warmed up and ready to go in the visitors' bullpen.
But Maddon stuck with Price to face Yorvit Torrealba, a noted fastball hitter, and Torrealba worked himself into what seemed to be a great situation to get a fastball: The count was full at 3-2, and if Price had walked Torrealba, he would have brought the tying run to the plate.
Price threw an excellent changeup, however, and Torrealba swung through it, appearing totally shocked by the pitch selection. In his last two starts, Price has used his changeup more than ever before in his career -- and on Sunday, he helped the Rays win a series that had an October feel to it.
If the two teams meet in the playoffs this year, maybe the Rays will use the defensive shift more, because it has been a weapon for them early this season, as the numbers show. Tampa Bay -- maybe the most progressive of all organizations -- would probably prefer that everybody look in the other direction, as if there was nothing to see.
But on one of the first days of spring training, the Rays' coaching staff spoke at length with the players and told them they intended to use the shift a lot more this season, particularly against right-handed hitters, and with Maddon and coaches Dave Martinez and Tom Foley doing the selling, the players have bought in.
In preparation for "Sunday Night Baseball," Jeremy Lundblad of ESPN Stats & Information compiled these stats on the Rays' shifty ways, based on data from Baseball Info Solutions:
[h4]Infield shifting[/h4]
The teams with the most infield shifts so far this season.
[table][tr][th=""]
Team
[/th][th=""]
Shifts
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Tampa Bay Rays
[/td][td]
125<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
New York Yankees
[/td][td]
50
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Milwaukee Brewers
[/td][td]
44
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Kansas City Royals
[/td][td]
43
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Toronto Blue Jays
[/td][td]
41
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>62 vs RHB, 63 vs LHB[/td][/tr][/table]
The Rays' infield is shifting at a record pace. They are already more than halfway to their 2011 shift total, which led the majors (see chart).
Baseball Info Solutions' definition of shift: There must be three infielders positioned on one side of a base, or the third infielder should be playing directly behind second base.
The huge spike in shifts is largely due to shifting on right-handed hitters this season. In 2010, only 4 percent of the Rays' shifts were against right-handed batters. Last season, it was 7 percent. So far in 2012? It's 49.6 percent. The Rays have 43 more shifts against right-handed batters than the next-highest team (Milwaukee).
The Rays don't like to talk in specifics about their shifting, but here are some of their remarks to the media about it:
Maddon: "Everyone talks about taking risks on offense, but we want to be aggressive on defense."
Rays shortstop Sean Rodriguez: "It just makes sense. A guy like A-Rod is not normally used to getting shifted against. If you think about it, they're trying to pull wide, because they're trying to drive the ball into the gap or hit a home run. So even at best case, if they're swinging the bat well and they're like, 'I want to hit the ball to the four-hole because it's wide open,' well, that's fine, because he's not going to beat us on the basepaths. So we'll take that single over him actually trying to drive that ball, so we've taken him out of his game plan. He's thinking about hitting singles instead of hitting doubles or home runs."
GM Andrew Friedman: "There are very few things we can answer in this game that are 100 percent. It's just playing the odds and shifting things ever so slightly and hope that over the course of time it helps us some."
Nick Swisher: "That's the first time I've seen a shift like that. Righties, lefties; it doesn't really matter. It feels like there's 15 guys on the right side of the infield or the left side of the infield."
Mark Teixeira: "I guess if you spend all winter looking at numbers, you can convince yourself to play it against everybody. Call me crazy, but I'm surprised people don't play four outfielders sometimes."
• Last season, the Rays ranked first in MLB in defensive runs saved (plus-85) and defensive efficiency (72.8 percent of balls in play converted into outs). Opponents hit .222 on ground balls; league average was .237.
Quick hits on shifts from the Fielding Bible:
• First known shift: July 14, 1946 vs. Ted Williams. He walked on four pitches.
• Under Ken Macha in 2010, the Brewers shifted 22 times. Last season under Ron Roenicke, it was 170 times. So was there a noticeable difference? In 2010, opponents hit .253 on grounders. In 2011, that fell to .228.
• The player most impacted by shifts has been Ryan Howard. Since 2010, he's hit .317 with no shift and .177 with the shift on.
In my opinion: The Brewers' use of the shift is directly related to the fact that Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin -- a longtime evaluator and scout -- is as open-minded to new information and metrics as any executive in the sport.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Tampa Bay's schedule in April was brutal, yet the Rays are in excellent standing, as Joe Smith writes.
• Before Sunday's game, Texas manager Ron Washington described how Josh Hamilton came into this season on a mission, intent on playing in a whole lot of games; 156 was the specific number Hamilton mentioned to his manager. But Hamilton might have to miss some games after tweaking his back.
• The Los Angeles Dodgers aren't saying Kenley Jansen is the closer, but … he pitched in the closer's spot Sunday. Javy Guerra got up in the ninth inning. In short, it appears the job of Dodger closer is up for grabs right now.
• From ESPN Stats and Info: Josh Thole became the 327th different player to homer off Jamie Moyer. Thole was born Oct. 28, 1986, and Moyer had already given up 10 career home runs by that day.
[h4]A-Rod's milestone[/h4]
The top 10 players in career runs batted in since RBI became an official stat in 1920.
[table][tr][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
RBIs
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
Hank Aaron
[/td][td]
2,297
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Barry Bonds
[/td][td]
1,996
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Lou Gehrig
[/td][td]
1,994
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Babe Ruth
[/td][td]
1,988
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Stan Musial
[/td][td]
1,950
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Jimmie Foxx
[/td][td]
1,924
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Eddie Murray
[/td][td]
1,917
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Alex Rodriguez
[/td][td]
1,904
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Willie Mays
[/td][td]
1,903
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
Mel Ott
[/td][td]
1,864
[/td][/tr][/table]
• CC Sabathia shut down the Detroit Tigers, while a teammate passed a milestone.
From ESPN Stats & Info: With his second-inning single Sunday, Alex Rodriguez drove in his 1,903rd career run, tying him for eighth on the all-time RBI list with Willie Mays. Rodriguez later tacked on another RBI to take sole possession of eighth (see chart).
• The Baltimore Orioles won again and lead the AL East with a 14-8 record. We're going to learn a whole lot more about Baltimore, because it is entering the gantlet: 15 straight games against the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, Rays and Rangers. Jason Hammel gets the ball tonight; he's been pitching well, as Eduardo Encina writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Brandon Inge is set to join the Oakland Athletics. Since Scott Sizemore's injury, Oakland has basically been holding an open audition at third base, and Inge now will get his chance. If he hits, the job is his; if he doesn't, he could be looking at the end of his career. As Manny Ramirez will attest, Oakland can sometimes be the end of the earth. Inge is expected to join the Athletics in Boston today, writes Susan Slusser.
2. Johnny Damon is expected to join the Cleveland Indians on Tuesday.
3. Alex Anthopoulos still won't say what the Toronto Blue Jays bid on Yu Darvish. It was significantly less than what the Rangers bid. Toronto fans will get a chance to see Darvish pitch tonight.
4. Arizona Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers is going to watch Vladimir Guerrero hit. The Diamondbacks have enough flexibility in their roster to make it happen, if they think Guerrero is worth the risk.
5. Freddy Garcia was moved to the Yankees' bullpen.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Scott Linebrink's shoulder is still bothering him.
2. Danny Duffy has been cleared to return to the KC rotation, as mentioned within this notebook.
3. Doug Fister is set for his first rehab start, as Shawn Windsor writes.
4. Joe Mauer got dinged by a foul ball.
5. The Mariners' George Sherrill will undergo Tommy John surgery, as Geoff Baker writes.
6. Kevin Youkilis missed Sunday's game with a stiff back.
7. Jayson Werth was scratched from the starting lineup.
[h3]Sunday's games[/h3]
1. Derek Lowe continues to shine for the Indians.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lowe shut down the Los Angeles Angels:
A) Threw 54 percent of pitches in the zone, including 61 percent to righties, his most in a game since September 2009, leading to more swings put in play (56 percent versus 46 percent last season).
B) He had 20 outs recorded by infielders (including one strikeout) versus only three by the outfield.
C) He retired 13 straight in the middle innings, including single-digit pitch counts in the fourth, fifth and sixth.
D) Right-handed hitters went 1-for-21 against Lowe, with the only hit belonging to Chris Iannetta in the eighth (the last batter Lowe faced).
2. An attempted double-steal by the St. Louis Cardinals -- which ended Sunday's defeat -- didn't go as planned, as Derrick Goold writes.
3. Bruce Chen got hit around, as Bob Dutton writes.
4. Max Scherzer had all kinds of command issues, as Lynn Henning writes. And Jim Leyland sort of put him on notice, indirectly. From Henning's story:
- "I'm not pointing my finger at Max Scherzer," said Tigers manager Jim Leyland, who nonetheless made clear that a team's patience might be thinning. "I'm just saying, he's got to get better. It's that simple.
- "There are always choices," he said, in a clear reference to Scherzer perhaps making a tuneup trip to Triple A Toledo (Scherzer has one minor-league option remaining.) "But you're always better off to think about things than say something after you just got beat.
- "But I can't sugarcoat it. It's a simple fact. When you're the main man, you've got to take charge and throw strikes up here.
- Scherzer's record tumbled to 1-3, with an earned-run average of 7.77.
- "His stuff is really good enough, but his control isn't good enough," Leyland said. "I'm trying to put it in a nice way."
6. Matt Garza was The Man for the Chicago Cubs.
7. Gavin Floyd again flirted with a no-hitter, as Dave van Dyck writes.
8. The Milwaukee Brewers escaped with a victory.
9. Henderson Alvarez picked up his first win, as John Lott writes.
10. Todd Helton mashed a grand slam, but the Colorado Rockies couldn't take their comeback to the next level.
11. Wade Miley shut down the Miami Marlins.
12. Bartolo Colon was really good Sunday, before it all crumbled for the Athletics.
13. Madison Bumgarner closed out April with a win.
14. James Loney got a big hit for the Dodgers.
15. The Angels lost again. Bill Plunkett's first line in today's story: "If the Angels haven't hit rock bottom yet, it's only because they can't hit anything right now."
16. The San Diego Padres have yet to win a series, writes Chris Jenkins.
17. Johan Santana was excellent again, but the New York Mets had to scramble for the win.
18. The Red Sox closed out what was a strong road trip with a loss.
19. Tim Hudson came off the disabled list and delivered, as David O'Brien writes.
By The Numbers, from ESPN's Stats & Info:
4: no-hit bids Gavin Floyd has taken six or more innings, tied for second among active pitchers.
22: consecutive scoreless innings that Johan Santana has thrown against the Rockies.
48: consecutive batters with two strikes that went hitless against Gio Gonzalez until James Loney ended his streak.
88: consecutive at-bats Albert Pujols has gone without a home run.
Rays bucking offensive trend.
Spoiler [+]
There's a buzz around the Tampa Bay Rays this season. Everyone's talking about the exaggerated defensive shifts manager Joe Maddon employs, particularly against left-handed hitters. There's also some talk about declining defense from Gold Glove winner Evan Longoria. The Rays' star third baseman has racked up six errors through 20 games, compared to 14 in each of the past two seasons. And there's the very deep, very talented starting rotation.
But something else interesting is going on with the Rays. Something less noticed, a bit more subtle, until you dig into the numbers. Since bursting through with their first division title in 2008, the Rays have been a speed first, power second team on offense. The Rays led the league in stolen bases in 2008, 2009 and 2010, and ranked second in 2011. In those same seasons, Tampa Bay ranked seventh, sixth, 12th and ninth, respectively, in home runs.
In 2009, teams hit an average of 168 home runs, and the numbers have been declining ever since. The per-team average was 153 home runs in 2010 and 152 in 2011. At the same time, stolen base rates have been steady or increasing. Teams stole an average of 99 bases in 2009 and 2010. That figure jumped to 109 last season.
While the league is hitting fewer home runs and stealing more bases, the Rays are moving in the opposite direction. Tampa Bay is becoming a power first, speed second team. And it's working.
Going back to their days in the cellar of the American League East, the Rays hit more home runs than the average major league team. In 2006, the Rays (then known as the Devil Rays) smacked 190 home runs compared to a league average of 179.5, good for 11th in the league. The next season, they hit 187 when the league average was 165, good for seventh overall.
The Rays were also a good running team back then. They stole 134 bases in 2006 and 131 in 2007, ranking them fourth and sixth in the league, respectively. But in 2008, the Rays took their team speed to the next level. In a season when stolen bases dropped from 97 per team in '07 to 93 per team in '08, the Rays' numbers went up, drastically.
Tampa Bay stole 142 bases in 2008, best in the league, thanks to 44 swipes from B.J. Upton and 25 from Carl Crawford. They also went from worst to first in the standings that season, winning 97 games and the American League pennant. Sure, Rays pitchers gave up 170 fewer runs in 2008 than in 2007, which has more to do with the turnaround than anything else. But the Rays' speed on the basepaths offset a slight drop in team power in 2008.
The Rays turned the speed dial up even further in 2009, stealing 194 bases, making them first in the league again. Tampa Bay stole nearly 100 more bases than the per-team average of 99. Again, Crawford and Upton led the way, with 60 and 42 swipes, respectively. But shortstop Jason Bartlett added 30 stolen bags and second baseman Ben Zobrist, in his first full season with the Rays, added 17 more.
That was the high-water mark for the Rays. In 2010, Crawford's last season in Tampa Bay, the Rays stole 172 bases, with 47 from Crawford, 42 from Upton, 24 from Zobrist and 15 from Longoria. Bartlett's numbers dropped from 30 in 2009 to 11 in '08. Last season, the numbers dropped further, down to 155 for the team. Crawford's departure hurt, of course, but Upton stole 36 bases and newcomers Desmond Jennings and Sam Fuld provided a nice buffer, swiping 20 bags each. Johnny Damon added 19, as did Zobrist.
As the Rays' stolen base numbers have been declining relative to the league since 2009, their home runs have been increasing relative to the league since 2010. Tampa Bay smacked 199 over the fence in 2009. That number dropped to 160 in 2010. But last season, the Rays raised their home run total to 172, while the total number of home runs hit in the league dropped.
So far this season, the Rays have stolen only 14 bases, ranking 13th in baseball. Upton started the season on the disabled list, and Fuld is likely out for the season. Their absences have undoubtedly hurt the team's speed. At the same time, the Rays have hit 28 home runs, while the rest of baseball has averaged fewer than 20. Only the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles have sent more balls over the fence.
The pitching is excellent. The defense is strategically placed. But the Rays are becoming a real power team, and it's fueling their early-season success.
But something else interesting is going on with the Rays. Something less noticed, a bit more subtle, until you dig into the numbers. Since bursting through with their first division title in 2008, the Rays have been a speed first, power second team on offense. The Rays led the league in stolen bases in 2008, 2009 and 2010, and ranked second in 2011. In those same seasons, Tampa Bay ranked seventh, sixth, 12th and ninth, respectively, in home runs.
In 2009, teams hit an average of 168 home runs, and the numbers have been declining ever since. The per-team average was 153 home runs in 2010 and 152 in 2011. At the same time, stolen base rates have been steady or increasing. Teams stole an average of 99 bases in 2009 and 2010. That figure jumped to 109 last season.
While the league is hitting fewer home runs and stealing more bases, the Rays are moving in the opposite direction. Tampa Bay is becoming a power first, speed second team. And it's working.
Going back to their days in the cellar of the American League East, the Rays hit more home runs than the average major league team. In 2006, the Rays (then known as the Devil Rays) smacked 190 home runs compared to a league average of 179.5, good for 11th in the league. The next season, they hit 187 when the league average was 165, good for seventh overall.
The Rays were also a good running team back then. They stole 134 bases in 2006 and 131 in 2007, ranking them fourth and sixth in the league, respectively. But in 2008, the Rays took their team speed to the next level. In a season when stolen bases dropped from 97 per team in '07 to 93 per team in '08, the Rays' numbers went up, drastically.
Tampa Bay stole 142 bases in 2008, best in the league, thanks to 44 swipes from B.J. Upton and 25 from Carl Crawford. They also went from worst to first in the standings that season, winning 97 games and the American League pennant. Sure, Rays pitchers gave up 170 fewer runs in 2008 than in 2007, which has more to do with the turnaround than anything else. But the Rays' speed on the basepaths offset a slight drop in team power in 2008.
The Rays turned the speed dial up even further in 2009, stealing 194 bases, making them first in the league again. Tampa Bay stole nearly 100 more bases than the per-team average of 99. Again, Crawford and Upton led the way, with 60 and 42 swipes, respectively. But shortstop Jason Bartlett added 30 stolen bags and second baseman Ben Zobrist, in his first full season with the Rays, added 17 more.
That was the high-water mark for the Rays. In 2010, Crawford's last season in Tampa Bay, the Rays stole 172 bases, with 47 from Crawford, 42 from Upton, 24 from Zobrist and 15 from Longoria. Bartlett's numbers dropped from 30 in 2009 to 11 in '08. Last season, the numbers dropped further, down to 155 for the team. Crawford's departure hurt, of course, but Upton stole 36 bases and newcomers Desmond Jennings and Sam Fuld provided a nice buffer, swiping 20 bags each. Johnny Damon added 19, as did Zobrist.
As the Rays' stolen base numbers have been declining relative to the league since 2009, their home runs have been increasing relative to the league since 2010. Tampa Bay smacked 199 over the fence in 2009. That number dropped to 160 in 2010. But last season, the Rays raised their home run total to 172, while the total number of home runs hit in the league dropped.
So far this season, the Rays have stolen only 14 bases, ranking 13th in baseball. Upton started the season on the disabled list, and Fuld is likely out for the season. Their absences have undoubtedly hurt the team's speed. At the same time, the Rays have hit 28 home runs, while the rest of baseball has averaged fewer than 20. Only the Texas Rangers, New York Yankees, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles have sent more balls over the fence.
The pitching is excellent. The defense is strategically placed. But the Rays are becoming a real power team, and it's fueling their early-season success.
Appel still flirting with No. 1 status.
Spoiler [+]
Stanford right-hander Mark Appel began the season as perhaps the top candidate to go No. 1 overall. Since very early in the schedule, Appling County (Ga.) High School outfielder Byron Buxton, who has been the top prospect in Keith Law's Top 50 Draft Prospects from the get-go, has moved to the front of that line.
Buxton and his teammates finished their regular season Saturday and will start a playoff run next weekend. He entered that final game batting .566 with a .663 on-base percentage, 14 doubles and 28 stolen bases, not to mention a perfect 6-0 record and two strikeouts per inning from the mound.
Appel, however, continues to tease scouts with big velocity and signs of improved command and offspeed stuff. The 6-foot-5, 215- pounder went seven strong innings Friday night at UCLA, allowing eight hits and an earned run. He did not walk a batter and struck out 10. For the year, Appel is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 81-20 K/BB ratio in 79 innings of work.
"He's the [Gerrit] Cole of this draft," said one scouting supervisor. "You have to look down the road a little bit more than you'd like," on a college pitcher, "but the raw ability is there and he's learning to pitch this year." There are times when Appel looks the part of a No. 1 pick and others when he appears to be quite the risk in the top half of the top 10.
Last week, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote that Florida high school hitter Albert Amora would be his No. 1 overall pick, and ranks him No. 1 among the players he has seen this spring, and that list includes Buxton. One might wonder, however: Why not Florida catcher Mike Zunino?
Generally, clubs drafting No. 1 overall prefer to select a player with immense upside. Zunino is the No. 2 player on Law's latest top 50, but might lack the tools for superstar performances at the big-league level. It's also worth noting that a college catcher has been selected No. 1 overall just three times in the draft's 47-year history, not counting 2010 top pick Bryce Harper, who was a 17-year-old playing at a junior college.
Arms Race
• Mississippi State right-hander Chris Stratton went the distance Friday night, shutting out Ole Miss on five hits -- three of those, one a double, by early Day 2 consideration Alex Yarbrough. Stratton walked one and fanned seven, needing just 104 pitches, thanks to 13 ground ball outs, including two double plays. Stratton is getting first-round attention and improved to 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 95-17 K/BB ratio in 75 1/3 innings.
• Louisiana State ace Kevin Gausman, who at age 21 is a draft-eligible sophomore, failed to wow scouts Friday night versus Georgia, but his final stat line is deceiving. He went six frames and yielded three runs on 10 hits -- all of the hits were singles and four were of the infield variety. Gausman whiffed nine and did not walk a batter but did battle with his command and control and needed 120 pitches to get 18 outs. Gausman is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 97-20 K/BB ratio in 75 innings. He has thrown two shutouts and surrendered just one long ball, but his 10 wild pitches and a fastball that is at times true and flat could keep him out of the top five.
• Kyle Zimmer answered the bell Friday, striking out 10 over seven innings, but one scout in attendance was not all that thrilled with what he saw. It wasn't Zimmer's fault; his stuff was good, including a fastball in the 92-95 mph range and a plus curveball. It's that he's been doing it against subpar competition. He remains a potential top 10 selection.
• If Appel, Gausman and Zimmer are the top three college arms, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha might be No. 4 and the 6-foot-6 right-hander danced on the Texas Longhorns Friday night, limiting his cross-state rival to four hits. He struck out nine versus two bases on balls.
• Wacha's biggest challengers for this spot include Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney and Duke's Marcus Stroman. Heaney, a left-hander, fanned eight through 8 1/3 shutout innings at Kansas and improved to 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 102-18 K/BB ratio in 84 innings. Heaney, listed at 6-foot-2 and 174 pounds, lacks the projection of the top four in the class, but his stuff is unquestionable and he's performed consistently all season.
• Prep left-hander Max Fried of Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) High School struck out eight in a complete-game win last week, allowing just two hits and a walk. Fried is a potential top pick, and the No. 1 prep arm in the class. The former title holder, Fried's teammate Lucas Giolito, could regain that crown as he prepares to throw for scouts between now and the draft. Giolito was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament earlier this spring, the exact same diagnosis of San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April.
• Camarillo High School (Calif.) southpaw Hunter Virant tossed a no-hitter with four strikeouts last week, allowing just one baserunner. Virant is a first-round talent, potentially landing somewhere in the top 20-25 picks.
• St. Edward's closer Stephen Johnson, who typically pitches in the 94-98 mph range and has hit 100 in the past, picked up saves in all three games this past weekend, striking out four in 2 1/3 frames. For the year, Johnson has allowed but 14 hits in 33 1/3 innings, just two going for extra bases. Of the 100 outs he's recorded, 57 have come by strikeout. The Boulder, Colo., native could be the first reliever off the board.
Around the Batter's Box
• No college position player has more to prove the final four-plus weeks than Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, who has had a disappointing season at the plate and has committed an unexpected 11 errors in the field in 41 games. Marrero went 5-for-12 over the weekend including two doubles and a triple and is up to .280/.343/.422 for the year. Scouts do not appear concerned an ounce about the defensive profile -- he's a big-league defender at short -- but the bat might leave him on the board a few picks longer. Law wrote last week that Pittsburgh at No. 8 might be the floor for Marrero, who otherwise could get to Oakland at No. 11.
• Zunino, whose season numbers are still very good and versus the always-tough SEC, went hitless in four at-bats Friday but went 5-for-8 Saturday and Sunday and is now batting .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and .659 slugging percentage. Zunino has tallied 18 doubles and 12 long balls and is a likely top five pick. If he happens to slip past Seattle at No. 3, the Chicago Cubs at No. 6 might be as far as Zunino reaches.
• Stanford's Stephen Piscotty, who moved to left field -- perhaps his most likely position in pro ball -- after freshman third baseman Alex Blandino blasted three homers last week en route to being named the national player of the week. Piscotty has responded offensively, collecting five hits in 10 at-bats versus UCLA, including his fifth home run of the year off Bruins ace and potential 2013 first-round pick Adam Plutko. The Cardinal star is up to .325/.411/.521 on the season, drawing 20 bases on balls and striking out just 11 times.
• Clemson's Richie Shaffer, who has shot up draft boards as much as any college bat this spring, had a tough weekend, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. Shaffer is still a potential top-20 pick, though his swing can get long and at times scouts wish he was a bit more aggressive. He enters play this week batting .347/.481/.599 with eight home runs and a 45-36 BB/K ratio.
• Stony Brook centerfielder Travis Jankowski had a huge weekend series, going 8-for-13 with two home runs, a triple and two stolen bases. The speedster is batting .390/.468/.634 with 29 stolen bases and could sneak into the top 40-50 picks, despite poor competition. He hit well in the Cape Cod League last summer, however, which keeps him in the Day 1 conversation.
Buxton and his teammates finished their regular season Saturday and will start a playoff run next weekend. He entered that final game batting .566 with a .663 on-base percentage, 14 doubles and 28 stolen bases, not to mention a perfect 6-0 record and two strikeouts per inning from the mound.
Appel, however, continues to tease scouts with big velocity and signs of improved command and offspeed stuff. The 6-foot-5, 215- pounder went seven strong innings Friday night at UCLA, allowing eight hits and an earned run. He did not walk a batter and struck out 10. For the year, Appel is 6-1 with a 2.73 ERA and 81-20 K/BB ratio in 79 innings of work.
"He's the [Gerrit] Cole of this draft," said one scouting supervisor. "You have to look down the road a little bit more than you'd like," on a college pitcher, "but the raw ability is there and he's learning to pitch this year." There are times when Appel looks the part of a No. 1 pick and others when he appears to be quite the risk in the top half of the top 10.
Last week, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel wrote that Florida high school hitter Albert Amora would be his No. 1 overall pick, and ranks him No. 1 among the players he has seen this spring, and that list includes Buxton. One might wonder, however: Why not Florida catcher Mike Zunino?
Generally, clubs drafting No. 1 overall prefer to select a player with immense upside. Zunino is the No. 2 player on Law's latest top 50, but might lack the tools for superstar performances at the big-league level. It's also worth noting that a college catcher has been selected No. 1 overall just three times in the draft's 47-year history, not counting 2010 top pick Bryce Harper, who was a 17-year-old playing at a junior college.
Arms Race
• Mississippi State right-hander Chris Stratton went the distance Friday night, shutting out Ole Miss on five hits -- three of those, one a double, by early Day 2 consideration Alex Yarbrough. Stratton walked one and fanned seven, needing just 104 pitches, thanks to 13 ground ball outs, including two double plays. Stratton is getting first-round attention and improved to 8-0 with a 2.39 ERA and 95-17 K/BB ratio in 75 1/3 innings.
• Louisiana State ace Kevin Gausman, who at age 21 is a draft-eligible sophomore, failed to wow scouts Friday night versus Georgia, but his final stat line is deceiving. He went six frames and yielded three runs on 10 hits -- all of the hits were singles and four were of the infield variety. Gausman whiffed nine and did not walk a batter but did battle with his command and control and needed 120 pitches to get 18 outs. Gausman is 7-1 with a 3.12 ERA and 97-20 K/BB ratio in 75 innings. He has thrown two shutouts and surrendered just one long ball, but his 10 wild pitches and a fastball that is at times true and flat could keep him out of the top five.
• Kyle Zimmer answered the bell Friday, striking out 10 over seven innings, but one scout in attendance was not all that thrilled with what he saw. It wasn't Zimmer's fault; his stuff was good, including a fastball in the 92-95 mph range and a plus curveball. It's that he's been doing it against subpar competition. He remains a potential top 10 selection.
• If Appel, Gausman and Zimmer are the top three college arms, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha might be No. 4 and the 6-foot-6 right-hander danced on the Texas Longhorns Friday night, limiting his cross-state rival to four hits. He struck out nine versus two bases on balls.
• Wacha's biggest challengers for this spot include Oklahoma State's Andrew Heaney and Duke's Marcus Stroman. Heaney, a left-hander, fanned eight through 8 1/3 shutout innings at Kansas and improved to 6-1 with a 1.82 ERA and 102-18 K/BB ratio in 84 innings. Heaney, listed at 6-foot-2 and 174 pounds, lacks the projection of the top four in the class, but his stuff is unquestionable and he's performed consistently all season.
• Prep left-hander Max Fried of Harvard-Westlake (Calif.) High School struck out eight in a complete-game win last week, allowing just two hits and a walk. Fried is a potential top pick, and the No. 1 prep arm in the class. The former title holder, Fried's teammate Lucas Giolito, could regain that crown as he prepares to throw for scouts between now and the draft. Giolito was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament earlier this spring, the exact same diagnosis of San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson, who underwent Tommy John surgery in mid-April.
• Camarillo High School (Calif.) southpaw Hunter Virant tossed a no-hitter with four strikeouts last week, allowing just one baserunner. Virant is a first-round talent, potentially landing somewhere in the top 20-25 picks.
• St. Edward's closer Stephen Johnson, who typically pitches in the 94-98 mph range and has hit 100 in the past, picked up saves in all three games this past weekend, striking out four in 2 1/3 frames. For the year, Johnson has allowed but 14 hits in 33 1/3 innings, just two going for extra bases. Of the 100 outs he's recorded, 57 have come by strikeout. The Boulder, Colo., native could be the first reliever off the board.
Around the Batter's Box
• No college position player has more to prove the final four-plus weeks than Arizona State shortstop Deven Marrero, who has had a disappointing season at the plate and has committed an unexpected 11 errors in the field in 41 games. Marrero went 5-for-12 over the weekend including two doubles and a triple and is up to .280/.343/.422 for the year. Scouts do not appear concerned an ounce about the defensive profile -- he's a big-league defender at short -- but the bat might leave him on the board a few picks longer. Law wrote last week that Pittsburgh at No. 8 might be the floor for Marrero, who otherwise could get to Oakland at No. 11.
• Zunino, whose season numbers are still very good and versus the always-tough SEC, went hitless in four at-bats Friday but went 5-for-8 Saturday and Sunday and is now batting .335 with a .389 on-base percentage and .659 slugging percentage. Zunino has tallied 18 doubles and 12 long balls and is a likely top five pick. If he happens to slip past Seattle at No. 3, the Chicago Cubs at No. 6 might be as far as Zunino reaches.
• Stanford's Stephen Piscotty, who moved to left field -- perhaps his most likely position in pro ball -- after freshman third baseman Alex Blandino blasted three homers last week en route to being named the national player of the week. Piscotty has responded offensively, collecting five hits in 10 at-bats versus UCLA, including his fifth home run of the year off Bruins ace and potential 2013 first-round pick Adam Plutko. The Cardinal star is up to .325/.411/.521 on the season, drawing 20 bases on balls and striking out just 11 times.
• Clemson's Richie Shaffer, who has shot up draft boards as much as any college bat this spring, had a tough weekend, going 2-for-16 with six strikeouts. Shaffer is still a potential top-20 pick, though his swing can get long and at times scouts wish he was a bit more aggressive. He enters play this week batting .347/.481/.599 with eight home runs and a 45-36 BB/K ratio.
• Stony Brook centerfielder Travis Jankowski had a huge weekend series, going 8-for-13 with two home runs, a triple and two stolen bases. The speedster is batting .390/.468/.634 with 29 stolen bases and could sneak into the top 40-50 picks, despite poor competition. He hit well in the Cape Cod League last summer, however, which keeps him in the Day 1 conversation.
Top '12 for 2012: Arenado up to No. 2.
Spoiler [+]
Note: The top 12 fantasy prospects (players currently in the minor leagues) for 2012 are below. These rankings are a bit different from other prospect rankings; these are strictly for 2012 fantasy purposes. So not only do talent and recent performance play a role in the rankings, but potential paths to the big leagues also factor in. In addition, all young players in the minors are eligible, including those in "prospect purgatory," those who have exceeded rookie status but are still young and unproven commodities.
[h3]1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Trout, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/laa/los-angeles-angels')">Los Angeles Angels (Last week's rank: 1)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Salt Lake): 8-for-17 (.471), 6 RBIs, 2 SB
Season totals: .403-1-13, 6 SB in 20 games
Update: Um, Angels, you are 6-13 in a year with high expectations. Mike Trout is awesome and can help turn things around immediately. We know it's going to require a difficult decision involving veterans who are owed big money, but it's all about winning, right?
What he can do: Trout would help the Angels and your fantasy team immediately. He can hit, he can run and he has a bit of pop. Unless your league heavily values hit-by-pitch and double-play balls, this is your guy. Editor's note: Trout was called up to the Angels late Friday, and could play this weekend versus the Indians.
[h3]2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 6)[/h3]
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Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesNolan Arenado is proving he's big league-ready at Double-A.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 7-for-25 (.280), 4 RBIs
Season totals: .342-1-13 in 20 games
Update: Remember when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30156/chris-nelson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30156/chris-nelson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30156" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Nelson looked great at the plate and was flirting with a .300 average? Well, that time has officially passed, and now the Rockies don't have a competent third baseman. Well, actually they do. His last name is Arenado, and he just keeps raking at Double-A.
What he can do: Arenado's sublime ability to make contact, along with playing in Coors Field, should lead to a good batting average right away, although for now his power could be limited to the doubles category.
[h3]3. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Travis Snider, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 8-for-24 (.333), HR, 5 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .400-4-23, 2 SBs in 19 games
Update: While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Eric Thames' bat has come alive a bit, what you are seeing now is his peak value, and his defense has been far from stellar. It's time to fish or cut bait with Snider, whom scouts love, even though he has never quite conquered big league pitching. Could now be the time? Update: Snider was removed from Thursday night's game because of a wrist strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it could delay things.
What he can do: Hit for average, get on base and hit for power. Well, at least that's what he has always done in the minor leagues. At some point, it has to translate, right?
[h3]4. Pat Corbin, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ari/arizona-diamondbacks')">Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 IP, 25 K's
Update: With http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30376" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"aniel Hudson on the disabled list and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31090/josh-collmenter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/31090/josh-collmenter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31090" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Collmenter quickly turning back into a pumpkin, the D-backs have to be close to pulling from their impressive minor league pitching depth. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are better prospects, but Corbin might be the most big league-ready at this time.
What he can do: Corbin is not a future star, but he throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with a very good changeup. He'd likely deliver a good number of quality starts, but few dominating ones.
[h3]5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29402/matt-laporta">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29402/matt-laporta')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29402" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Matt LaPorta, 1B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indians">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/cle/cleveland-indians')">Cleveland Indians (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 9-for-16 (.563), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .364-5-12 in 17 games
Update: LaPorta was the big prize in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4553" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">CC Sabathia trade four years ago, but he has never lived up to expectations. Well, all of a sudden, he's crushing Triple-A pitching just like he has in the past, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5918/casey-kotchman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5918/casey-kotchman')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5918" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Casey Kotchman's poor start could lead to another chance for him.
What he can do: If you have a taste for risk, LaPorta could be an interesting play. He was a first-round pick and former stud prospect for a reason, but he's just as likely to flame out again as he is to start hitting.
[h3]6. Matt Harvey, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets (Last week: unranked)[/h3]Last week's stats (at Triple-A Buffalo): 13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 15 K's
Season totals: 2-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 26 IP, 24 K's
Update: Consider this a pre-emptive call. Harvey likely won't be called up immediately, but he's in position to take advantage of http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28507" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Pelfrey (elbow) hitting the shelf for what looks like an extended period of time. After a slow start at Triple-A, he's suddenly missing plenty of bats.
What he can do: The Mets likely want Harvey to settle in at Triple-A before calling him up, but note that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32025/chris-schwinden">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32025/chris-schwinden')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32025" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Schwinden is merely a placeholder. Upon his call-up, Harvey could rack up strikeouts immediately with both his fastball and slider, but when it comes to command and control, he's not quite there yet.
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Tony Farlow/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesDanny Hultzen is fairly polilshed for a 22-year-old.
[h3]7. Danny Hultzen, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 26 K's
Update: The Mariners have the best minor league rotation in the game at Double-A Jackson. Meanwhile, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3687/kevin-millwood">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3687/kevin-millwood')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3687" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Millwood looks old, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30502/hector-noesi">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30502/hector-noesi')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30502" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Hector Noesi looks better suited for bullpen work. One of the reasons Hultzen was the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft was because he was the most big league-ready player on the board, and he has been pitching like it of late.
What he can do: Hultzen has more polish than stuff, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter. He could need an adjustment period that involves getting knocked around a little while he learns how to use his stuff in the big leagues, but his stinginess when it comes to walks will help his cause.
[h3]8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29446/mark-melancon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29446/mark-melancon')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29446" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mark Melancon, RP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/bos/boston-red-sox')">Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's
Season totals (in minors): 2-2, SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3 1/3 IP, 6 K's
Update: Don't laugh. Yes, Melancon was awful with Boston, but this is a guy who was closing games in the big leagues last year, and he seems to have already found his stuff again in Pawtucket. He'll be back in Beantown soon.
What he can do: While it will take him awhile to earn ninth-inning trust again, Melancon should rack up plenty of strikeouts in a middle-innings role, with a good offense providing an excellent opportunity for vulture wins.
[h3]9. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 8-for-20 (.400), 4 HR, 11 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .377-9-27, 3 SB in 20 games
Update: Middlebrooks just keeps hitting. While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5375/kevin-youkilis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5375/kevin-youkilis')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5375" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Youkilis heating up is great news for the Red Sox, it's bad news for Middlebrooks, who seems stuck in the International League for the time being.
What he can do: Middlebrooks began the year as a pretty good third-base prospect, and now he's one of the best in baseball. But who knows when he will arrive?
[h3]10. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29486/chris-carter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29486/chris-carter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29486" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Carter, 1B/DH, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Sacramento): 9-for-25 (.360), 3 HR, 12 RBIs
Season totals: .291-4-19 in 19 games
Update: Carter has had plenty of big league opportunities and failed them all, but right-handed power often takes a long time to develop. A's starting first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6397" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"aric Barton seems to be lost in the tall weeds at this point, and none of the team's DHs are hitting.
What he can do: Carter has mammoth raw power, but it comes at a price, as he'll always rack up high strikeout totals that will keep his batting average down. You should not be surprised to learn that he has little speed.
[h3]11. Andrelton Simmons, SS, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mississippi): 10-for-28 (.357), 9 RBIs
Season totals: .299-0-10, 3 SB in 16 games
Update: Simmons battled with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Tyler Pastornicky right to the very end of spring training this year, but ultimately the Braves stuck to their plan and sent Simmons down. However, Pastornicky has failed to impress at the plate, and Simmons' ability to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense could get him a look should the Braves remain competitive in the National League East. Simmons won't exactly be called up soon, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
What he can do: Simmons has much more value in sim leagues due to his top-notch glove work, but he does have the speed to steal bases.
[h3]12. Mike Olt, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
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Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesMike Olt is a solid defender at third base.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Frisco): 7-for-28 (.250), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .243-5-10 in 19 games
Update: While there isn't much of a need to change anything with the Rangers these days, one point of weakness has been their production at first base, with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30452/mitch-moreland">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30452/mitch-moreland')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30452" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mitch Moreland hitting just .179. A third baseman by trade (and a plus one defensively), Olt has the offensive profile to fit either corner-infield spot and could be an internal answer if something doesn't arrive via the trade market in July.
What he can do: Olt has plenty of power and patience, but he could struggle to hit for average right away. Runs and RBIs could come in bunches simply by his being in the Rangers' explosive lineup.
[h3]Falling out of the ranks[/h3]
3. (last week's ranking) http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30892/garrett-richards">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30892/garrett-richards')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30892" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (at Triple-A Salt Lake): Richards certainly has done nothing wrong, but http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5026/jerome-williams">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/5026/jerome-williams')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5026" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jerome Williams has pitched well enough of late to hold on to the Angels' fifth-starter job.
4. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30523/lonnie-chisenhall">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30523/lonnie-chisenhall')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30523" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (at Triple-A Columbus): Chisenhall has slowed down at Triple-A, while Indians third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28468/jack-hannahan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28468/jack-hannahan')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28468" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jack Hannahan has heated up.
5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28614" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Fields, 3B, Dodgers (at Triple-A Albuquerque): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4657" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Juan Uribe's wrist injury was not as serious as originally thought.
7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Brad Peacock, SP, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29806/jarrod-parker')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29806" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jarrod Parker got the first call in Oakland and pitched well, leaving Peacock still waiting his turn.
8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29564/welington-castillo">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...29564/welington-castillo')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29564" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Welington Castillo, C, Cubs (at Triple-A Iowa): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6428" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Geovany Soto is not hitting, which doesn't help his trade value, and benching him would hurt it even more.
9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (at Triple-A Round Rock): He's still hitting (.329 batting average, three home runs, five stolen bases), but there's no need to rock the boat on a team as good as Texas.
11. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31091/julio-teheran">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31091/julio-teheran')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31091" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (at Triple-A Gwinnett): Just when he seemed to be putting things together, he didn't get out of the fifth inning Wednesday while walking four and striking out just one batter.
12. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (at Triple-A Syracuse): He finally hit his first home run Sunday, but it's going to take an extended hot streak at this point for the Nats to call on the 19-year-old phenom. Editor's note: Harper will be recalled on Saturday to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman on the Nats' roster.
[h3]Bonus round[/h3]
While it's likely none of these players will see the big leagues in 2012, you keeper-league owners should consider them good candidates for big stolen-base totals down the road.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds: The fastest player in the minors stole 11 bases in the past week alone and has 23 overall in 20 games while batting .377 for High-A Bakersfield.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Nationals: He has a line-drive bat but will need to improve his on-base skills to be useful. What he can do is run, as evidenced by his 16 stolen bases in 20 games for Double-A Harrisburg, while batting a lofty .356.
Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros: His father stole 463 bases in the big leagues, and this 2010 first-round pick has made some strides in his second season at Low-A Lexington, batting .266 with 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts.
[h3]1. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30836/mike-trout')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30836" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Trout, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/laa/los-angeles-angels">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...e/laa/los-angeles-angels')">Los Angeles Angels (Last week's rank: 1)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Salt Lake): 8-for-17 (.471), 6 RBIs, 2 SB
Season totals: .403-1-13, 6 SB in 20 games
Update: Um, Angels, you are 6-13 in a year with high expectations. Mike Trout is awesome and can help turn things around immediately. We know it's going to require a difficult decision involving veterans who are owed big money, but it's all about winning, right?
What he can do: Trout would help the Angels and your fantasy team immediately. He can hit, he can run and he has a bit of pop. Unless your league heavily values hit-by-pitch and double-play balls, this is your guy. Editor's note: Trout was called up to the Angels late Friday, and could play this weekend versus the Indians.
[h3]2. Nolan Arenado, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/col/colorado-rockies">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/col/colorado-rockies')">Colorado Rockies (Last week's rank: 6)[/h3]
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Jeff Gross/Getty ImagesNolan Arenado is proving he's big league-ready at Double-A.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Tulsa): 7-for-25 (.280), 4 RBIs
Season totals: .342-1-13 in 20 games
Update: Remember when http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30156/chris-nelson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30156/chris-nelson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30156" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Nelson looked great at the plate and was flirting with a .300 average? Well, that time has officially passed, and now the Rockies don't have a competent third baseman. Well, actually they do. His last name is Arenado, and he just keeps raking at Double-A.
What he can do: Arenado's sublime ability to make contact, along with playing in Coors Field, should lead to a good batting average right away, although for now his power could be limited to the doubles category.
[h3]3. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29189/travis-snider">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29189/travis-snider')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29189" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Travis Snider, OF, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tor/toronto-blue-jays">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/tor/toronto-blue-jays')">Toronto Blue Jays (Last week's rank: 2)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Las Vegas): 8-for-24 (.333), HR, 5 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .400-4-23, 2 SBs in 19 games
Update: While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30709/eric-thames')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30709" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Eric Thames' bat has come alive a bit, what you are seeing now is his peak value, and his defense has been far from stellar. It's time to fish or cut bait with Snider, whom scouts love, even though he has never quite conquered big league pitching. Could now be the time? Update: Snider was removed from Thursday night's game because of a wrist strain. The severity of the injury is not yet known, but it could delay things.
What he can do: Hit for average, get on base and hit for power. Well, at least that's what he has always done in the minor leagues. At some point, it has to translate, right?
[h3]4. Pat Corbin, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/ari/arizona-diamondbacks">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ari/arizona-diamondbacks')">Arizona Diamondbacks (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mobile): 7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-0, 1.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 27 IP, 25 K's
Update: With http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30376/daniel-hudson">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/30376/daniel-hudson')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30376" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"
aniel Hudson on the disabled list and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31090/josh-collmenter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/31090/josh-collmenter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31090" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Collmenter quickly turning back into a pumpkin, the D-backs have to be close to pulling from their impressive minor league pitching depth. Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs are better prospects, but Corbin might be the most big league-ready at this time.What he can do: Corbin is not a future star, but he throws strikes and keeps hitters off balance with a very good changeup. He'd likely deliver a good number of quality starts, but few dominating ones.
[h3]5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29402/matt-laporta">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29402/matt-laporta')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29402" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Matt LaPorta, 1B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/cle/cleveland-indians">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/cle/cleveland-indians')">Cleveland Indians (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Columbus): 9-for-16 (.563), HR, 5 RBIs
Season totals: .364-5-12 in 17 games
Update: LaPorta was the big prize in the http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4553/cc-sabathia')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4553" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">CC Sabathia trade four years ago, but he has never lived up to expectations. Well, all of a sudden, he's crushing Triple-A pitching just like he has in the past, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5918/casey-kotchman">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5918/casey-kotchman')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5918" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Casey Kotchman's poor start could lead to another chance for him.
What he can do: If you have a taste for risk, LaPorta could be an interesting play. He was a first-round pick and former stud prospect for a reason, but he's just as likely to flame out again as he is to start hitting.
[h3]6. Matt Harvey, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/nym/new-york-mets')">New York Mets (Last week: unranked)[/h3]Last week's stats (at Triple-A Buffalo): 13 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 15 K's
Season totals: 2-1, 4.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 26 IP, 24 K's
Update: Consider this a pre-emptive call. Harvey likely won't be called up immediately, but he's in position to take advantage of http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/28507/mike-pelfrey')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28507" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mike Pelfrey (elbow) hitting the shelf for what looks like an extended period of time. After a slow start at Triple-A, he's suddenly missing plenty of bats.
What he can do: The Mets likely want Harvey to settle in at Triple-A before calling him up, but note that http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/32025/chris-schwinden">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...id/32025/chris-schwinden')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="32025" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Schwinden is merely a placeholder. Upon his call-up, Harvey could rack up strikeouts immediately with both his fastball and slider, but when it comes to command and control, he's not quite there yet.
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Tony Farlow/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesDanny Hultzen is fairly polilshed for a 22-year-old.
[h3]7. Danny Hultzen, SP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/sea/seattle-mariners">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...ame/sea/seattle-mariners')">Seattle Mariners (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Jackson): 5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K's
Season totals: 2-2, 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 21 2/3 IP, 26 K's
Update: The Mariners have the best minor league rotation in the game at Double-A Jackson. Meanwhile, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/3687/kevin-millwood">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/3687/kevin-millwood')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="3687" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Millwood looks old, and http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30502/hector-noesi">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/30502/hector-noesi')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30502" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Hector Noesi looks better suited for bullpen work. One of the reasons Hultzen was the No. 2 pick in the 2011 draft was because he was the most big league-ready player on the board, and he has been pitching like it of late.
What he can do: Hultzen has more polish than stuff, with the ceiling of a No. 3 starter. He could need an adjustment period that involves getting knocked around a little while he learns how to use his stuff in the big leagues, but his stinginess when it comes to walks will help his cause.
[h3]8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29446/mark-melancon">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29446/mark-melancon')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29446" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mark Melancon, RP, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/bos/boston-red-sox">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/bos/boston-red-sox')">Boston Red Sox (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 3 1/3 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 6 K's
Season totals (in minors): 2-2, SV, 2.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3 1/3 IP, 6 K's
Update: Don't laugh. Yes, Melancon was awful with Boston, but this is a guy who was closing games in the big leagues last year, and he seems to have already found his stuff again in Pawtucket. He'll be back in Beantown soon.
What he can do: While it will take him awhile to earn ninth-inning trust again, Melancon should rack up plenty of strikeouts in a middle-innings role, with a good offense providing an excellent opportunity for vulture wins.
[h3]9. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston Red Sox (Last week's rank: 10)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Pawtucket): 8-for-20 (.400), 4 HR, 11 RBIs, SB
Season totals: .377-9-27, 3 SB in 20 games
Update: Middlebrooks just keeps hitting. While http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5375/kevin-youkilis">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/5375/kevin-youkilis')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5375" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Kevin Youkilis heating up is great news for the Red Sox, it's bad news for Middlebrooks, who seems stuck in the International League for the time being.
What he can do: Middlebrooks began the year as a pretty good third-base prospect, and now he's one of the best in baseball. But who knows when he will arrive?
[h3]10. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29486/chris-carter">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/29486/chris-carter')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29486" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Chris Carter, 1B/DH, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/oak/oakland-athletics">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te...me/oak/oakland-athletics')">Oakland Athletics (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Triple-A Sacramento): 9-for-25 (.360), 3 HR, 12 RBIs
Season totals: .291-4-19 in 19 games
Update: Carter has had plenty of big league opportunities and failed them all, but right-handed power often takes a long time to develop. A's starting first baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6397/daric-barton')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6397" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true"
aric Barton seems to be lost in the tall weeds at this point, and none of the team's DHs are hitting.What he can do: Carter has mammoth raw power, but it comes at a price, as he'll always rack up high strikeout totals that will keep his batting average down. You should not be surprised to learn that he has little speed.
[h3]11. Andrelton Simmons, SS, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-braves">http://espn.go.com/mlb/te.../name/atl/atlanta-braves')">Atlanta Braves (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
Last week's stats (at Double-A Mississippi): 10-for-28 (.357), 9 RBIs
Season totals: .299-0-10, 3 SB in 16 games
Update: Simmons battled with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30710/tyler-pastornicky">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30710/tyler-pastornicky')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30710" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Tyler Pastornicky right to the very end of spring training this year, but ultimately the Braves stuck to their plan and sent Simmons down. However, Pastornicky has failed to impress at the plate, and Simmons' ability to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense could get him a look should the Braves remain competitive in the National League East. Simmons won't exactly be called up soon, but he's worth keeping an eye on.
What he can do: Simmons has much more value in sim leagues due to his top-notch glove work, but he does have the speed to steal bases.
[h3]12. Mike Olt, 3B, http:///espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers">http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/tex/texas-rangers')">Texas Rangers (Last week: unranked)[/h3]
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Mike Janes/Four Seam Images/AP ImagesMike Olt is a solid defender at third base.
Last week's stats (at Double-A Frisco): 7-for-28 (.250), 2 HR, 4 RBIs
Season totals: .243-5-10 in 19 games
Update: While there isn't much of a need to change anything with the Rangers these days, one point of weakness has been their production at first base, with http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30452/mitch-moreland">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/30452/mitch-moreland')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30452" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Mitch Moreland hitting just .179. A third baseman by trade (and a plus one defensively), Olt has the offensive profile to fit either corner-infield spot and could be an internal answer if something doesn't arrive via the trade market in July.
What he can do: Olt has plenty of power and patience, but he could struggle to hit for average right away. Runs and RBIs could come in bunches simply by his being in the Rangers' explosive lineup.
[h3]Falling out of the ranks[/h3]
3. (last week's ranking) http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30892/garrett-richards">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...d/30892/garrett-richards')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30892" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Garrett Richards, SP, Angels (at Triple-A Salt Lake): Richards certainly has done nothing wrong, but http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5026/jerome-williams">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../id/5026/jerome-williams')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="5026" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jerome Williams has pitched well enough of late to hold on to the Angels' fifth-starter job.
4. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/30523/lonnie-chisenhall">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../30523/lonnie-chisenhall')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="30523" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B, Indians (at Triple-A Columbus): Chisenhall has slowed down at Triple-A, while Indians third baseman http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28468/jack-hannahan">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/28468/jack-hannahan')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28468" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jack Hannahan has heated up.
5. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/28614/josh-fields')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="28614" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Josh Fields, 3B, Dodgers (at Triple-A Albuquerque): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/4657/juan-uribe')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="4657" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Juan Uribe's wrist injury was not as serious as originally thought.
7. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31591/brad-peacock">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl.../_/id/31591/brad-peacock')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31591" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Brad Peacock, SP, Athletics (at Triple-A Sacramento): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29806/jarrod-parker">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/29806/jarrod-parker')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29806" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Jarrod Parker got the first call in Oakland and pitched well, leaving Peacock still waiting his turn.
8. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29564/welington-castillo">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl...29564/welington-castillo')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="29564" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Welington Castillo, C, Cubs (at Triple-A Iowa): http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto">http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/6428/geovany-soto')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="6428" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Geovany Soto is not hitting, which doesn't help his trade value, and benching him would hurt it even more.
9. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31588/leonys-martin">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31588/leonys-martin')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31588" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Leonys Martin, OF, Rangers (at Triple-A Round Rock): He's still hitting (.329 batting average, three home runs, five stolen bases), but there's no need to rock the boat on a team as good as Texas.
11. http:///espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31091/julio-teheran">http://espn.go.com/mlb/pl..._/id/31091/julio-teheran')" content="tabs#ppc" fpopheight="357px" fpopwidth="490px" gameroot="flb" playeridtype="sportsId" playerid="31091" instance="_ppc" tab="null" cache="true">Julio Teheran, SP, Braves (at Triple-A Gwinnett): Just when he seemed to be putting things together, he didn't get out of the fifth inning Wednesday while walking four and striking out just one batter.
12. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals (at Triple-A Syracuse): He finally hit his first home run Sunday, but it's going to take an extended hot streak at this point for the Nats to call on the 19-year-old phenom. Editor's note: Harper will be recalled on Saturday to replace the injured Ryan Zimmerman on the Nats' roster.
[h3]Bonus round[/h3]
While it's likely none of these players will see the big leagues in 2012, you keeper-league owners should consider them good candidates for big stolen-base totals down the road.
Billy Hamilton, SS, Reds: The fastest player in the minors stole 11 bases in the past week alone and has 23 overall in 20 games while batting .377 for High-A Bakersfield.
Jeff Kobernus, 2B, Nationals: He has a line-drive bat but will need to improve his on-base skills to be useful. What he can do is run, as evidenced by his 16 stolen bases in 20 games for Double-A Harrisburg, while batting a lofty .356.
Delino DeShields, 2B, Astros: His father stole 463 bases in the big leagues, and this 2010 first-round pick has made some strides in his second season at Low-A Lexington, batting .266 with 11 stolen bases in 11 attempts.
Temper Harper expectations.
Spoiler [+]
Friday afternoon, the Washington Nationals announced that phenom Bryce Harper would be called up for his major league debut Saturday against the Los Angeles Dodgers, taking the place on the roster vacated by the injured Ryan Zimmerman. The Nats have recent experience with quick promotions of all-world prodigies, having two years ago done the same with Stephen Strasburg.
While Strasburg's career went swimmingly right from the start -- with the exception of that pesky little major elbow surgery -- it would be smart to temper those Day One expectations from Harper. Very few players, even the best prospects in baseball, explode from the minors as fully-formed superstars.
The first thing to consider when predicting how Harper will fare in the short-term for the team is to remember that he's still just 19 and arguably the top prospect in baseball (and certainly in the Top 5); this reflects his advanced skills for his age and an extremely high ceiling more than his major league readiness at this very moment.
Harper's professional debut went as well as could be expected as he hit .318/.423/.554 for the Hagerstown Suns. That's full-season A-ball, but it's still just A-ball and his performance for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, a .256/.329/.395 line in 147 PA, was mostly impressive because of his extremely young age. Harper's performance for Syracuse this year, a .250/.333/.375 line in the early going, at least suggests -- with all the caveats of small sample sizes -- that he's not at the point right now where he's terrorizing Triple-A pitchers.
Spring training statistics are notoriously hard to use, but in this particular case, with such limited data available, it's at least worth noting that his spring performance -- a .690 OPS in 28 at-bats with 11 strikeouts -- doesn't actually scream that he's ready now. The ZiPS projection system loves Harper in 2014 and beyond and sees him developing into a major star, but for 2012, it only seems him as a .238/.317/.405 hitter, which isn't out of line with his performances in the high minors so far.
Even if Harper's only a .700 OPS hitter or right now, that's probably better than Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, but given his hype, inevitably some people will think of it as a major disappointment. That would be a mistake as lots of players that have been promoted aggressively struggle initially -- in fact, one could argue that a little dose of adversity could be a good thing for a player with such effortless talent.
Mike Trout was promoted aggressively as well and after a solid, but slightly underwhelming debut, is hitting .400 for Salt Lake and his star shines just as brightly. Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeno both improved rapidly after mixed reviews in the majors, both star outfielders that debuted at 19. Justin Upton hit .221/.283/.364 at 19, but was still a legitimate MVP candidate by 23. Another outfielder you may have heard of, one Willie Howard Mays, started his major league career going 1-for-26 and he turned out to be OK.
The Nats will give Harper plenty of playing time -- they're not going to call him up to sit on the bench -- but what we're going to be seeing in the next weeks is probably going to be the appetizer, not the main course. Whether a Washington Nationals fan, a Harper fantasy owner, or just a plain ol' fan of baseball, enjoy his debut, but temper your expectations.
While Strasburg's career went swimmingly right from the start -- with the exception of that pesky little major elbow surgery -- it would be smart to temper those Day One expectations from Harper. Very few players, even the best prospects in baseball, explode from the minors as fully-formed superstars.
The first thing to consider when predicting how Harper will fare in the short-term for the team is to remember that he's still just 19 and arguably the top prospect in baseball (and certainly in the Top 5); this reflects his advanced skills for his age and an extremely high ceiling more than his major league readiness at this very moment.
Harper's professional debut went as well as could be expected as he hit .318/.423/.554 for the Hagerstown Suns. That's full-season A-ball, but it's still just A-ball and his performance for the Double-A Harrisburg Senators, a .256/.329/.395 line in 147 PA, was mostly impressive because of his extremely young age. Harper's performance for Syracuse this year, a .250/.333/.375 line in the early going, at least suggests -- with all the caveats of small sample sizes -- that he's not at the point right now where he's terrorizing Triple-A pitchers.
Spring training statistics are notoriously hard to use, but in this particular case, with such limited data available, it's at least worth noting that his spring performance -- a .690 OPS in 28 at-bats with 11 strikeouts -- doesn't actually scream that he's ready now. The ZiPS projection system loves Harper in 2014 and beyond and sees him developing into a major star, but for 2012, it only seems him as a .238/.317/.405 hitter, which isn't out of line with his performances in the high minors so far.
Even if Harper's only a .700 OPS hitter or right now, that's probably better than Roger Bernardina or Rick Ankiel, but given his hype, inevitably some people will think of it as a major disappointment. That would be a mistake as lots of players that have been promoted aggressively struggle initially -- in fact, one could argue that a little dose of adversity could be a good thing for a player with such effortless talent.
Mike Trout was promoted aggressively as well and after a solid, but slightly underwhelming debut, is hitting .400 for Salt Lake and his star shines just as brightly. Andruw Jones and Cesar Cedeno both improved rapidly after mixed reviews in the majors, both star outfielders that debuted at 19. Justin Upton hit .221/.283/.364 at 19, but was still a legitimate MVP candidate by 23. Another outfielder you may have heard of, one Willie Howard Mays, started his major league career going 1-for-26 and he turned out to be OK.
The Nats will give Harper plenty of playing time -- they're not going to call him up to sit on the bench -- but what we're going to be seeing in the next weeks is probably going to be the appetizer, not the main course. Whether a Washington Nationals fan, a Harper fantasy owner, or just a plain ol' fan of baseball, enjoy his debut, but temper your expectations.
Calling up Harper a risky move for Nats.
Spoiler [+]
Forgive me if I'm picturing Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo making the call to Syracuse to recall Bryce Harper while sitting in his chair and staring down the barrel of a gun held by the team's VP of sales.
[+] Enlarge
Daniel Shirey/US PresswireWashington's call-up of Harper could be seen as a panic move.
Harper has hit a combined .254/.330/.388, including a .174/.216/.275 line against lefties, across two levels above low-A (he also recorded four walks and 19 strikeouts against left-handed pitching in Double-A and Triple-A), and while his performance against right-handers at those levels is more than adequate for a player who's as old as your typical college freshman, it doesn't give us any reason to expect immediate success in the majors.
Harper made a lot of progress over the course of 2011, but in the Arizona Fall League his weakness against off-speed stuff was still evident, even if it was less than it was the year before. We have no evidence, statistical or otherwise, this spring to indicate that he's made those adjustments enough to be ready to produce in the majors. He will eventually do so -- of this I have little doubt -- but he had shown that Triple-A was a sufficient challenge for him, and there's no reason to recall him until he succeeds at that level.
This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A.
The Nationals could have recalled Tyler Moore, who's more of a bench bat but could provide some power in a part-time role, and doesn't carry the same risk -- if you screw up Tyler Moore, you've really lost nothing, but if you screw up Harper by thrusting him into a situation for which he's not fully prepared, the cost is enormous. He's not just one of the most hyped prospects of his generation, he's one of the best, and if Washington sets him back through an aggressive promotion, we are all worse off for it.
[+] Enlarge
Daniel Shirey/US PresswireWashington's call-up of Harper could be seen as a panic move.Harper has hit a combined .254/.330/.388, including a .174/.216/.275 line against lefties, across two levels above low-A (he also recorded four walks and 19 strikeouts against left-handed pitching in Double-A and Triple-A), and while his performance against right-handers at those levels is more than adequate for a player who's as old as your typical college freshman, it doesn't give us any reason to expect immediate success in the majors.
Harper made a lot of progress over the course of 2011, but in the Arizona Fall League his weakness against off-speed stuff was still evident, even if it was less than it was the year before. We have no evidence, statistical or otherwise, this spring to indicate that he's made those adjustments enough to be ready to produce in the majors. He will eventually do so -- of this I have little doubt -- but he had shown that Triple-A was a sufficient challenge for him, and there's no reason to recall him until he succeeds at that level.
This looks to me like a panic move, a reaction to modest attendance figures for the Nats despite their hot start this year, rather than a well thought-out developmental plan, as we've seen the club employ for most of its other prospects. Contrast their adamant statements about keeping Stephen Strasburg on an innings limit in his first full year back from Tommy John surgery with this seemingly unplanned promotion before Harper can even reach 90 at-bats in Triple-A.
The Nationals could have recalled Tyler Moore, who's more of a bench bat but could provide some power in a part-time role, and doesn't carry the same risk -- if you screw up Tyler Moore, you've really lost nothing, but if you screw up Harper by thrusting him into a situation for which he's not fully prepared, the cost is enormous. He's not just one of the most hyped prospects of his generation, he's one of the best, and if Washington sets him back through an aggressive promotion, we are all worse off for it.
Triple Crown dreams for Kemp, Hamilton.
Spoiler [+]
ARLINGTON, Texas -- There have been plenty of instances when hitters have flirted with a Triple Crown since the last time somebody actually accomplished the feat (in 1967, when Carl Yastrzemski led the American League in batting average, home runs and RBIs). But eventually, those hitters faded, maybe because they weren't elite power hitters, or maybe they didn't have the speed to get a handful of needed infield hits to hold up their batting average. Maybe they just tired or got hurt.
In 2012, there are two excellent candidates for the Triple Crown -- maybe the best candidates since Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson and Willie Mays.
Matt Kemp has developed into an excellent hitter. There is no other NL player with his power, and he can run. Right now, Kemp is leading the NL batting race by 57 points: Kemp is batting .442, well ahead of David Wright (.385).
Kemp has 11 homers after ending one of the best games of the season with a home run Saturday; the players tied for second in this category have six.
Kemp has 24 RBIs and is tied with teammate Andre Ethier for the NL lead.
Oh, sure, there will be a time when Kemp will start getting the Barry Bonds treatment; it might be worth asking opposing managers why Kemp has only 11 walks to this point. But Kemp was pitched around a lot last year and still did significant damage.
In the bottom of the first inning Saturday, the Rays' Jeff Niemann battled Josh Hamilton through a long at-bat, throwing breaking balls and changeups and just one fastball -- before Hamilton flared a two-run single to left field.
Hamilton is third in the AL in batting average at .388; he's 15 points behind David Ortiz and Ryan Sweeney. Hamilton has nine homers, two more than any other AL hitter, and his 24 RBIs put him one ahead of second-place Nick Swisher.
Hamilton is one of the greatest athletes in the sport. He is fast, and he's a left-handed hitter, which gives him an inherent advantage on possible infield hits. He swings in the middle of what is a great lineup. He plays in an extraordinary hitters' park. "This place is a dream come true for a left-handed hitter," Luke Scott mentioned before Saturday's game.
And Hamilton has a whole lot at stake, with his free agency looming. If he has a great season, somebody might step up with a huge payday.
Kemp could be the first hitter in almost a half-century to win the Triple Crown; so could Hamilton.
Bryce Harper dazzled in his debut, writes Adam Kilgore.
Steve Garvey coached Harper when he was 15 years old.
Stephen Strasburg hasn't allowed a home run in his past 63 1/3 innings.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Strasburg held the Los Angeles Dodgers in check:
A. Strasburg's fastball averaged 96.6 mph, harder than his 95.4 mph average in his first four starts.
B. He struck out three hitters with his fastball, a season high.
C. Opposing hitters swung and missed 11 times at Strasburg's fastball in his first four starts; Dodgers hitters missed nine of Strasburg's fastballs Saturday, matching the career high Strasburg set in his major league debut in 2010.
D. Strasburg threw 30 curveballs, two shy of a career high, and matched a career low by throwing only four changeups.
E. Dodgers batters struck out five times against Strasburg's curveball, one shy of Strasburg's career high in that category.
F. He threw just one pitch out of a three-ball count, a career low.
G. Ten of the 16 balls the Dodgers put in play against Strasburg were grounders, the third-highest percentage of his career (62.5 percent).
Colby Lewis made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what on Saturday, as Gerry Fraley writes. The Texas Rangers have been playing great defense, writes Richard Durrett.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Yu Darvish is already something of a legend, because of his path to the big leagues and his early-season performance and his repertoire.
His right-handed repertoire, that is. Because he apparently can throw the hell out of the ball left-handed, too.
Darvish long-tosses left-handed -- perhaps up to 250 feet, general manager Jon Daniels guess-timated. He spins breaking balls left-handed -- because he likes the balance it seems to provide for him. And he throws hard. "I'd bet he can throw about 88 mph," said Derek Holland, Darvish's catching partner. "It's firm."
Mike Napoli, who caught Darvish in his last start, has eight different signs for the right-hander, because of all of his different pitches -- a set of signs that Darvish provided for him, including the upside down "L." Napoli ran through the signs Saturday for a reporter, pausing only once to make sure he was giving the right signal. "It's really not that tough," he said.
As Darvish warms up for a game in the bullpen, he will throw most of those eight pitches -- but not his hard curveball, perhaps because his best feel for the ball seems to be how to spin it, Napoli speculated. "He can really put hard spin on it," said Napoli.
• In the midst of a spring training workout this year, the Rays' staff and players spoke extensively about the team's intention to focus even more on shifting fielders in their defensive positioning. The Rays are pioneers in this, and they've dramatically ramped up their use of acute alignments. We'll have a lot more on this during Sunday Night Baseball this evening.
• The Baltimore Orioles continue to roll: They shut down the Oakland Athletics.
• Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list. It's damage control time again for Dave Dombrowski, writes Drew Sharp. The arrest raises questions about Young as he nears free agency, writes John Lowe. It might be wise for the Detroit Tigers to move on without him, writes Lynn Henning.
• From Elias: The Pittsburgh Pirates are the first team since the 1972 Brewers to score five runs or fewer in the first 20 games of the season. The 1972 Brewers set the MLB record by scoring five runs or fewer in their first 31 games.
The Pirates haven't been drawing walks, Michael Sanserino writes. The Pirates' struggles are in line with an NL trend, writes Karen Price.
• The Cleveland Indians have gone 10 straight games without a home run, marking their longest such streak since 1983. They went 14 games without a long ball from April 10-27 of that year.
• Giancarlo Stanton is struggling because he's been chasing pitches out of the zone, says Ozzie Guillen. Some rival evaluators believe that Stanton is really struggling to get to inside pitches. "He is really caught in-between right now," said an assistant GM.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will know more on Chase Utley is a week, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. Brett Gardner is making progress.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid rehab outing, Dan Hickling writes.
4. Lance Berkman will test his calf today, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Jeremy Guthrie, hurt in a bike accident, played catch.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's unclear whether Freddy Garcia will make his next start, after he got hammered again. David Phelps could be the guy to take his place, Anthony McCarron writes. It's time for Joe Girardi to drop Garcia, writes David Lennon.
2. The Boston Red Sox will have to make a decision on Aaron Cook this week.
3. The Reds' catchers continue to split playing time.
4. Jason Kipnis likes hitting in the No. 2 spot.
5. Geovany Soto is hanging onto his spot, for now.
6. Tim Hudson will be activated today, and there is word from Carroll Rogers here who will be sent down to make room.
7. The Houston Astros called up pitcher Jordan Lyles.
8. Pat Corbin is replacing Josh Collmenter in the Arizona rotation.
9. Mike Trout was recalled and placed in the leadoff spot. It feels like the Angels are all over the place right now in trying to evaluate who to play and when.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. The Red Sox remained perfect for the week, this time with a lot of help from Jon Lester.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lester beat the Chicago White Sox:
A. Lester threw 21 changeups, all to right-handed hitters, matching his most in a start in the last four seasons. White Sox hitters swung at 15 of the 21, missing seven. They were 1-for-6 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Lester's changeup. Sixteen of the 21 (76.2 percent) were down in the zone or below it.
B. Helped by throwing so many changeups, 68 of Lester's 122 pitches (55.7 percent) were down in the zone or below it, higher than his average of 41.7 percent since 2009.
C. White Sox hitters were 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a low pitch from Lester.
2. Jimmy Rollins returned to the leadoff spot, and the Phillies won, Marc Narducci writes.
3. Erik Bedard picked up his first win, Bill Brink writes.
4. The New York Mets held a lead, writes Andrew Keh.
5. Edwin Encarnacion clubbed a big grand slam for the Toronto Blue Jays. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
6. Drew Smyly shut down the New York Yankees.
7. A rainout really helped the Kansas City bullpen.
8. Yadier Molina just seems to keep getting better and better and better as a hitter, and on Saturday, he saw a total of five pitches while getting four hits. Mike Matheny stuck with Kyle Lohse in a big spot.
9. Johnny Cueto was The Man for the Cincinnati Reds.
10. The Indians weren't able to pull out a close one.
11. Jake Peavy was superb, but the White Sox still lost, Dave van Dyck writes.
12. Randy Wells couldn't survive the fourth inning.
13. The Milwaukee Brewers made a lot of mistakes.
14. Hanley Ramirez gave the Miami Marlins a big lift.
15. It all got away from the Rays in the middle innings.
16. Randall Delgado had a tough day.
17. The Astros suffered a lopsided defeat.
18. A newcomer struggled in his debut for the Colorado Rockies.
19. Tim Lincecum pitched his best game of the year, John Shea writes.
20. The Seattle Mariners were shut down by a former Mariner.
21. Anthony Bass threw well, but the Padres lost, Chris Jenkins writes.
22. Dan Haren ended the Angels' losing streak.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats and Info:
0: Walks issued by Morrow, the first time he's posted that number in 76 career starts.
1: The number of line drives allowed by Lincecum; he had allowed 21 in his first four starts.
4: Walk-off home runs for Kemp since the start of 2011, two more than anyone else in baseball.
10: Runs by the Orioles (a season high) after averaging 3.0 runs per game in the previous 10 games.
1,000: Career walks for Derek Jeter, as he becomes the 21st player with 3,000 hits and 1,000 walks.
In 2012, there are two excellent candidates for the Triple Crown -- maybe the best candidates since Yastrzemski, Frank Robinson and Willie Mays.
Matt Kemp has developed into an excellent hitter. There is no other NL player with his power, and he can run. Right now, Kemp is leading the NL batting race by 57 points: Kemp is batting .442, well ahead of David Wright (.385).
Kemp has 11 homers after ending one of the best games of the season with a home run Saturday; the players tied for second in this category have six.
Kemp has 24 RBIs and is tied with teammate Andre Ethier for the NL lead.
Oh, sure, there will be a time when Kemp will start getting the Barry Bonds treatment; it might be worth asking opposing managers why Kemp has only 11 walks to this point. But Kemp was pitched around a lot last year and still did significant damage.
In the bottom of the first inning Saturday, the Rays' Jeff Niemann battled Josh Hamilton through a long at-bat, throwing breaking balls and changeups and just one fastball -- before Hamilton flared a two-run single to left field.
Hamilton is third in the AL in batting average at .388; he's 15 points behind David Ortiz and Ryan Sweeney. Hamilton has nine homers, two more than any other AL hitter, and his 24 RBIs put him one ahead of second-place Nick Swisher.
Hamilton is one of the greatest athletes in the sport. He is fast, and he's a left-handed hitter, which gives him an inherent advantage on possible infield hits. He swings in the middle of what is a great lineup. He plays in an extraordinary hitters' park. "This place is a dream come true for a left-handed hitter," Luke Scott mentioned before Saturday's game.
And Hamilton has a whole lot at stake, with his free agency looming. If he has a great season, somebody might step up with a huge payday.
Kemp could be the first hitter in almost a half-century to win the Triple Crown; so could Hamilton.
Bryce Harper dazzled in his debut, writes Adam Kilgore.
Steve Garvey coached Harper when he was 15 years old.
Stephen Strasburg hasn't allowed a home run in his past 63 1/3 innings.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Strasburg held the Los Angeles Dodgers in check:
A. Strasburg's fastball averaged 96.6 mph, harder than his 95.4 mph average in his first four starts.
B. He struck out three hitters with his fastball, a season high.
C. Opposing hitters swung and missed 11 times at Strasburg's fastball in his first four starts; Dodgers hitters missed nine of Strasburg's fastballs Saturday, matching the career high Strasburg set in his major league debut in 2010.
D. Strasburg threw 30 curveballs, two shy of a career high, and matched a career low by throwing only four changeups.
E. Dodgers batters struck out five times against Strasburg's curveball, one shy of Strasburg's career high in that category.
F. He threw just one pitch out of a three-ball count, a career low.
G. Ten of the 16 balls the Dodgers put in play against Strasburg were grounders, the third-highest percentage of his career (62.5 percent).
Colby Lewis made chicken salad out of chicken you-know-what on Saturday, as Gerry Fraley writes. The Texas Rangers have been playing great defense, writes Richard Durrett.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Yu Darvish is already something of a legend, because of his path to the big leagues and his early-season performance and his repertoire.
His right-handed repertoire, that is. Because he apparently can throw the hell out of the ball left-handed, too.
Darvish long-tosses left-handed -- perhaps up to 250 feet, general manager Jon Daniels guess-timated. He spins breaking balls left-handed -- because he likes the balance it seems to provide for him. And he throws hard. "I'd bet he can throw about 88 mph," said Derek Holland, Darvish's catching partner. "It's firm."
Mike Napoli, who caught Darvish in his last start, has eight different signs for the right-hander, because of all of his different pitches -- a set of signs that Darvish provided for him, including the upside down "L." Napoli ran through the signs Saturday for a reporter, pausing only once to make sure he was giving the right signal. "It's really not that tough," he said.
As Darvish warms up for a game in the bullpen, he will throw most of those eight pitches -- but not his hard curveball, perhaps because his best feel for the ball seems to be how to spin it, Napoli speculated. "He can really put hard spin on it," said Napoli.
• In the midst of a spring training workout this year, the Rays' staff and players spoke extensively about the team's intention to focus even more on shifting fielders in their defensive positioning. The Rays are pioneers in this, and they've dramatically ramped up their use of acute alignments. We'll have a lot more on this during Sunday Night Baseball this evening.
• The Baltimore Orioles continue to roll: They shut down the Oakland Athletics.
• Delmon Young was placed on the restricted list. It's damage control time again for Dave Dombrowski, writes Drew Sharp. The arrest raises questions about Young as he nears free agency, writes John Lowe. It might be wise for the Detroit Tigers to move on without him, writes Lynn Henning.
• From Elias: The Pittsburgh Pirates are the first team since the 1972 Brewers to score five runs or fewer in the first 20 games of the season. The 1972 Brewers set the MLB record by scoring five runs or fewer in their first 31 games.
The Pirates haven't been drawing walks, Michael Sanserino writes. The Pirates' struggles are in line with an NL trend, writes Karen Price.
• The Cleveland Indians have gone 10 straight games without a home run, marking their longest such streak since 1983. They went 14 games without a long ball from April 10-27 of that year.
• Giancarlo Stanton is struggling because he's been chasing pitches out of the zone, says Ozzie Guillen. Some rival evaluators believe that Stanton is really struggling to get to inside pitches. "He is really caught in-between right now," said an assistant GM.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. The Philadelphia Phillies will know more on Chase Utley is a week, as mentioned within this notebook.
2. Brett Gardner is making progress.
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a solid rehab outing, Dan Hickling writes.
4. Lance Berkman will test his calf today, as mentioned within this notebook.
5. Jeremy Guthrie, hurt in a bike accident, played catch.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's unclear whether Freddy Garcia will make his next start, after he got hammered again. David Phelps could be the guy to take his place, Anthony McCarron writes. It's time for Joe Girardi to drop Garcia, writes David Lennon.
2. The Boston Red Sox will have to make a decision on Aaron Cook this week.
3. The Reds' catchers continue to split playing time.
4. Jason Kipnis likes hitting in the No. 2 spot.
5. Geovany Soto is hanging onto his spot, for now.
6. Tim Hudson will be activated today, and there is word from Carroll Rogers here who will be sent down to make room.
7. The Houston Astros called up pitcher Jordan Lyles.
8. Pat Corbin is replacing Josh Collmenter in the Arizona rotation.
9. Mike Trout was recalled and placed in the leadoff spot. It feels like the Angels are all over the place right now in trying to evaluate who to play and when.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. The Red Sox remained perfect for the week, this time with a lot of help from Jon Lester.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Lester beat the Chicago White Sox:
A. Lester threw 21 changeups, all to right-handed hitters, matching his most in a start in the last four seasons. White Sox hitters swung at 15 of the 21, missing seven. They were 1-for-6 with two strikeouts in at-bats ending with Lester's changeup. Sixteen of the 21 (76.2 percent) were down in the zone or below it.
B. Helped by throwing so many changeups, 68 of Lester's 122 pitches (55.7 percent) were down in the zone or below it, higher than his average of 41.7 percent since 2009.
C. White Sox hitters were 1-for-13 with five strikeouts in at-bats ending with a low pitch from Lester.
2. Jimmy Rollins returned to the leadoff spot, and the Phillies won, Marc Narducci writes.
3. Erik Bedard picked up his first win, Bill Brink writes.
4. The New York Mets held a lead, writes Andrew Keh.
5. Edwin Encarnacion clubbed a big grand slam for the Toronto Blue Jays. Brandon Morrow was The Man.
6. Drew Smyly shut down the New York Yankees.
7. A rainout really helped the Kansas City bullpen.
8. Yadier Molina just seems to keep getting better and better and better as a hitter, and on Saturday, he saw a total of five pitches while getting four hits. Mike Matheny stuck with Kyle Lohse in a big spot.
9. Johnny Cueto was The Man for the Cincinnati Reds.
10. The Indians weren't able to pull out a close one.
11. Jake Peavy was superb, but the White Sox still lost, Dave van Dyck writes.
12. Randy Wells couldn't survive the fourth inning.
13. The Milwaukee Brewers made a lot of mistakes.
14. Hanley Ramirez gave the Miami Marlins a big lift.
15. It all got away from the Rays in the middle innings.
16. Randall Delgado had a tough day.
17. The Astros suffered a lopsided defeat.
18. A newcomer struggled in his debut for the Colorado Rockies.
19. Tim Lincecum pitched his best game of the year, John Shea writes.
20. The Seattle Mariners were shut down by a former Mariner.
21. Anthony Bass threw well, but the Padres lost, Chris Jenkins writes.
22. Dan Haren ended the Angels' losing streak.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats and Info:
0: Walks issued by Morrow, the first time he's posted that number in 76 career starts.
1: The number of line drives allowed by Lincecum; he had allowed 21 in his first four starts.
4: Walk-off home runs for Kemp since the start of 2011, two more than anyone else in baseball.
10: Runs by the Orioles (a season high) after averaging 3.0 runs per game in the previous 10 games.
1,000: Career walks for Derek Jeter, as he becomes the 21st player with 3,000 hits and 1,000 walks.
- 11,588
- 837
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2005
Are the Marlins really that bad? Ouch.
- 11,588
- 837
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2005
Are the Marlins really that bad? Ouch.
- Status