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2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN
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The best looking version of these shoes, and they still look like the shoebox they came in.
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What is working in Dallas?
NBA's top 10 centers for 2013-14.
NBA's top 10 SGs for 2013-14.
How are the Dallas Mavericks winning?
At first glance, Dallas doesn't fit with what most teams look like today. Its point guard is slower than most, its center is smaller than most, its small forward is older than most, and its shooting guard can't shoot 3s. So how is it that the Mavericks have an offense that is tied for seventh in offensive efficiency?
To beat an evolved NBA defense -- one that swarms toward the ball, rushes at 3-point shooters and works to protect the rim -- teams must make defenders cover as much ground as possible. Basically, the theory goes, spread the defenders out while looking for the hole that opens up as they move with the ball. And Dallas excels at exactly that.
It sounds like an NFL philosophy, but in basketball there can be multiple passes in a single possession. NBA offenses spread defenses vertically -- including the full court and the half court -- and horizontally. But it's the way Dallas plays fast that has it winning and outhustling its opposition. Much of this has to do with the burgeoning trio of Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, who have meshed quickly and effectively.
What is working
Dallas is smart to play fast, hoping to find the first hole when defenders don't race back to set up as fast as they should. It's even smarter because Dallas starts only one player who would be deemed fast in this league -- Ellis. But his teammates are just fast enough and skilled enough to create a very good transition offense, one of the league's best five at this style of play.
Glenn James/NBAE/Getty Images
Ellis and Jose Calderon have formed a surprisingly effective backcourt duo.
The Mavericks defense also is built around this fast philosophy, gambling for deflections and jumping passing lanes, which is why they are No. 2 in steals per game. Steals lead to two-on-one and three-on-two breaks (plus one-on-zero, the best kind of break), and with Shawn Marion and Ellis, plus Jose Calderon as a decision-maker often, Dallas is excellent at converting steals into points.
Dallas is effective running after missed shots, since it has shooters and slashers who hurt defenses when they focus on only one area (either the rim or the 3-point line) at the expense of the other. The Mavericks' ball movement rivals that of the San Antonio Spurs when they are playing their best, one of the biggest keys to their overall success.
Perhaps surprising to some, Dallas is an excellent half-court offense as well, thanks to the same core attitude that forces defenses to guard the whole court, sideline to sideline and timeline to baseline. Everyone associates spreading the floor with 3-point shooting, but that tells only part of the story. Just as the threat of a 3 invites defenders to the perimeter, scoring at the rim sucks them down into the paint. Each is vital to the other. And this is where Dallas' secret sauce is made.
The Nowitzki effect
To begin with, the Mavericks are one of the elite post-up teams in the league. You read that correctly. They don't have Zach Randolph or Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan, but they do have Nowitzki, and his post-up game is delivering at a high rate. He does not earn paint shots as often as some of the aforementioned guys, but his turnaround jumper is at least as effective as almost any other post weapon in the NBA and is better than most. It appears Nowitzki has embraced this part of the game, as he is running to post up frequently, and it is paying off as he is having an excellent season as a finisher (48.9 percent) on all shots.
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images
Nowitzki causes defenses to collapse on him in the post or overextend out to him on the perimeter.
With the kind of success Nowitzki is having posting up, defenses are forced to send help down toward him, which opens up shots for Calderon, Vince Carter, Marion and Jae Crowder. DeJuan Blair also is a tough guy to guard one-on-one in space inside, and many of his touches down there derive from Nowitzki's presence nearby.
Dallas has another great paint weapon, but this one happens to be almost a foot shorter than starting center Samuel Dalembert. In the NBA today, there might not be a more dangerous slasher to the rim than Ellis. His attacks are not as productive as say, Howard, Duncan or DeMarcus Cousins near the rim, but they are close enough to simulate the same net effect.
Think about it; a defense has to race back to defend Dallas' early ball push, hoping to contain Ellis and Marion in transition while finding marksmen like Calderon and Nowitzki spotting up behind the 3-point line. Then it has to watch for Nowitzki inside while dealing with Ellis' ability to get to the rim in an instant.
That attention to paint defense is what opens up the perimeter, just as the attention to the perimeter opens up the paint. That's typically too difficult a challenge for defenses, which is why Dallas is eighth in 3-point percentage and fifth in overall field goal percentage. The only teams with better shooting percentages from 3 and overall than Dallas are the two NBA Finals teams from last year, Miami and San Antonio.
The final key for Dallas, one that bears watching, is its passing ability. I'm talking more specifically about its ability to move the ball fluidly from one threat to another. Inside to outside, sideline to sideline, Dallas is a team that thrives when the ball does not get stuck in one man's hands. The Mavericks don't have LeBron James or Dwyane Wade as isolation stars, nor do they have a pick-and-roll talent like Tony Parker. This was a concern entering the season with the arrival of Ellis -- and that his reputation as a ball stopper would hurt the offense -- but he has been very good for them.
As the season moves on, however, Ellis could easily revert to what he's always been more comfortable doing, holding the ball and waiting for a screen. We have seen a little more of this lately, perhaps the reason Dallas is 6-7 in its last 13 games. Dallas cannot defend or rebound well enough to survive the loaded Western Conference if it does not have a highly rated offense, and that can't happen unless it continues doing what it has been doing most of the season.
At first glance, Dallas doesn't fit with what most teams look like today. Its point guard is slower than most, its center is smaller than most, its small forward is older than most, and its shooting guard can't shoot 3s. So how is it that the Mavericks have an offense that is tied for seventh in offensive efficiency?
To beat an evolved NBA defense -- one that swarms toward the ball, rushes at 3-point shooters and works to protect the rim -- teams must make defenders cover as much ground as possible. Basically, the theory goes, spread the defenders out while looking for the hole that opens up as they move with the ball. And Dallas excels at exactly that.
It sounds like an NFL philosophy, but in basketball there can be multiple passes in a single possession. NBA offenses spread defenses vertically -- including the full court and the half court -- and horizontally. But it's the way Dallas plays fast that has it winning and outhustling its opposition. Much of this has to do with the burgeoning trio of Dirk Nowitzki, Monta Ellis and Jose Calderon, who have meshed quickly and effectively.
What is working
Dallas is smart to play fast, hoping to find the first hole when defenders don't race back to set up as fast as they should. It's even smarter because Dallas starts only one player who would be deemed fast in this league -- Ellis. But his teammates are just fast enough and skilled enough to create a very good transition offense, one of the league's best five at this style of play.
Glenn James/NBAE/Getty Images
Ellis and Jose Calderon have formed a surprisingly effective backcourt duo.
The Mavericks defense also is built around this fast philosophy, gambling for deflections and jumping passing lanes, which is why they are No. 2 in steals per game. Steals lead to two-on-one and three-on-two breaks (plus one-on-zero, the best kind of break), and with Shawn Marion and Ellis, plus Jose Calderon as a decision-maker often, Dallas is excellent at converting steals into points.
Dallas is effective running after missed shots, since it has shooters and slashers who hurt defenses when they focus on only one area (either the rim or the 3-point line) at the expense of the other. The Mavericks' ball movement rivals that of the San Antonio Spurs when they are playing their best, one of the biggest keys to their overall success.
Perhaps surprising to some, Dallas is an excellent half-court offense as well, thanks to the same core attitude that forces defenses to guard the whole court, sideline to sideline and timeline to baseline. Everyone associates spreading the floor with 3-point shooting, but that tells only part of the story. Just as the threat of a 3 invites defenders to the perimeter, scoring at the rim sucks them down into the paint. Each is vital to the other. And this is where Dallas' secret sauce is made.
The Nowitzki effect
To begin with, the Mavericks are one of the elite post-up teams in the league. You read that correctly. They don't have Zach Randolph or Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard or Tim Duncan, but they do have Nowitzki, and his post-up game is delivering at a high rate. He does not earn paint shots as often as some of the aforementioned guys, but his turnaround jumper is at least as effective as almost any other post weapon in the NBA and is better than most. It appears Nowitzki has embraced this part of the game, as he is running to post up frequently, and it is paying off as he is having an excellent season as a finisher (48.9 percent) on all shots.
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images
Nowitzki causes defenses to collapse on him in the post or overextend out to him on the perimeter.
With the kind of success Nowitzki is having posting up, defenses are forced to send help down toward him, which opens up shots for Calderon, Vince Carter, Marion and Jae Crowder. DeJuan Blair also is a tough guy to guard one-on-one in space inside, and many of his touches down there derive from Nowitzki's presence nearby.
Dallas has another great paint weapon, but this one happens to be almost a foot shorter than starting center Samuel Dalembert. In the NBA today, there might not be a more dangerous slasher to the rim than Ellis. His attacks are not as productive as say, Howard, Duncan or DeMarcus Cousins near the rim, but they are close enough to simulate the same net effect.
Think about it; a defense has to race back to defend Dallas' early ball push, hoping to contain Ellis and Marion in transition while finding marksmen like Calderon and Nowitzki spotting up behind the 3-point line. Then it has to watch for Nowitzki inside while dealing with Ellis' ability to get to the rim in an instant.
That attention to paint defense is what opens up the perimeter, just as the attention to the perimeter opens up the paint. That's typically too difficult a challenge for defenses, which is why Dallas is eighth in 3-point percentage and fifth in overall field goal percentage. The only teams with better shooting percentages from 3 and overall than Dallas are the two NBA Finals teams from last year, Miami and San Antonio.
The final key for Dallas, one that bears watching, is its passing ability. I'm talking more specifically about its ability to move the ball fluidly from one threat to another. Inside to outside, sideline to sideline, Dallas is a team that thrives when the ball does not get stuck in one man's hands. The Mavericks don't have LeBron James or Dwyane Wade as isolation stars, nor do they have a pick-and-roll talent like Tony Parker. This was a concern entering the season with the arrival of Ellis -- and that his reputation as a ball stopper would hurt the offense -- but he has been very good for them.
As the season moves on, however, Ellis could easily revert to what he's always been more comfortable doing, holding the ball and waiting for a screen. We have seen a little more of this lately, perhaps the reason Dallas is 6-7 in its last 13 games. Dallas cannot defend or rebound well enough to survive the loaded Western Conference if it does not have a highly rated offense, and that can't happen unless it continues doing what it has been doing most of the season.
NBA's top 10 centers for 2013-14.
Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question with the men in the middle.
It's been an interesting season for centers. Second-year player Anthony Davis -- a natural power forward -- has logged most of his time in the middle for the Pelicans and has built on his fabulous rookie season. San Antonio's Tim Duncan, whose position has always been up for debate, has logged more time in the pivot, as he's shared the court less frequently with Tiago Splitter. Other centers having good seasons have gone down with major injuries: Al Horford, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol. And Roy Hibbert may be having the best defensive season of any player in the league as the anchor of the NBA's best first-half team, but his offensive metrics continue to undersell his real-world value.
The summer center rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.
Davis
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
TrueWARP: 17.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.6 | Overall rank: 8
Davis has improved his offensive efficiency by getting to the line more often. The improvements on that end have been subtle. He's using more possessions for the Pelicans, which can sometimes mean an increase in turnovers, but his rate of miscues has fallen to a minuscule number. His improvement on defense has not been so subtle. Davis leads the NBA in shot-block rate, something he seemed preordained to do coming out of Kentucky.
Cousins
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
TrueWARP: 13.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.0 | Overall rank: 7
Cousins has exploded on the scene this season, and if you think he is ranked too high, you didn't see him outplay Dwight Howard head-to-head in both of their meetings so far. Cousins has a league-high usage rate, and despite that hefty volume, his true shooting percentage is by far his best yet. He's also handing out more assists and grabbing more rebounds than ever before.
Drummond
3. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 13.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 10
The Pistons have been the league's most mercurial team, capable of beating the league's best teams and capable of getting blown out by teams in the middle class. Drummond has been a stalwart through it all. He leads the league in offensive rebounds, both in raw total and percentage. His overall rebound percentage also leads the league. By and large, Drummond is putting up the same excellent numbers he did as a rookie, only he's doing it in 12 more minutes per game.
Howard
4. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 12.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 11
Howard is having a better statistical season than he did during his one season with the Lakers. However, he's still well off the level of play he established in Orlando. Howard is having an excellent season -- see the No. 11 overall rank in WARP above -- but his shot-block percentage is down by a full percent and he's averaging his fewest minutes per game since his rookie season.
Duncan
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 10.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.5 | Overall rank: 31
Duncan struggled early in the season, and his overall PER is the lowest of his career. However, that worst-ever PER is still 20.7, which is a strong statement about just how great and consistent Duncan has been. His shooting percentage was well on the road to recovery in December, and the rest of his game seems to be intact.
Noah
6. Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 9.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 25
Noah was supposed to relinquish some of the larger offensive load he carried last season, but another major injury to Bulls star Derrick Rose snuffed out that plan. Chicago is again running much of its offense through the skilled Noah. This season, he's struggled to finish at the basket. However, his playmaking is even better, and he's taking better care of the ball. The defense is still there, as are all the intangibles you'd want in a third wheel.
Horford
7. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 9.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.6 | Overall rank: 30
Horford was having a career season before going down with a season-ending pectoral tear. Before that happened, Horford had become a high-usage big man who kept his efficiency high. He also remained an underrated post defender at the other end.
Lopez
8. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 8.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.7 | Overall rank: 52
Lopez's PER has improved for three straight seasons, reaching a career-best 25.7 in 17 games in 2013-14. That's where it will stay, too, as Lopez sits out the rest of the campaign with yet another foot injury. He has become the most skilled scoring center in the league, so let's just hope his latest procedure can keep the foot injuries at bay.
Jordan
9. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
TrueWARP: 8.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.1 | Overall rank: 20
Jordan has really become a fixture in the middle of the Clippers. He has missed just two games since the start of the 2010-11 season, and has started 187 straight games at the position. This season, he's leading the league in field goal percentage for the second straight season and is also averaging a career-best 13.4 rebounds per game.
Gasol
10. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
TrueWARP: 8.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall rank: 107
Gasol's shooting numbers were down from last season at the time he was hurt, but he was occupying a larger share of the Grizzlies' offense. His shot-blocking was off as well, but nevertheless, you can bet Memphis is eager to get Gasol back.
Next five: Al Jefferson, Charlotte Bobcats; Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers; Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers; Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic; Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz.
Hibbert would crack the top 10 if we were ranking based strictly on this season, but there is little doubt that the metrics aren't doing him justice. He'd probably be more than satisfied to trade a spot in the WARP rankings for a No. 1 seed for the Pacers. Vucevic is putting up the same season he did in 2012-13, though he is getting a little more love from the officials. Still, he needs to become more of a physical presence in order to enter the league's elite in the middle. Favors showing up on this list is bittersweet for Jazz fans. If his partnership with Enes Kanter were working better when they shared the floor, Favors would be grouped with power forwards.
Also notable: Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks (16); Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (17); Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers (20).
Chandler is dragged down by his missed time, of course, but he's also shooting his lowest percentage from the field in nine years. Bosh is clearly much better than his ranking here, but his minutes are down, which exacerbates the many sacrifices he has made to fill a role on a championship roster. Gasol's numbers have been on the upswing of late.
How Top 10 rankings were derived
1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of their career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.
2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.
3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.
4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4.
It's been an interesting season for centers. Second-year player Anthony Davis -- a natural power forward -- has logged most of his time in the middle for the Pelicans and has built on his fabulous rookie season. San Antonio's Tim Duncan, whose position has always been up for debate, has logged more time in the pivot, as he's shared the court less frequently with Tiago Splitter. Other centers having good seasons have gone down with major injuries: Al Horford, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol. And Roy Hibbert may be having the best defensive season of any player in the league as the anchor of the NBA's best first-half team, but his offensive metrics continue to undersell his real-world value.
The summer center rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.
Davis
1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
TrueWARP: 17.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.6 | Overall rank: 8
Davis has improved his offensive efficiency by getting to the line more often. The improvements on that end have been subtle. He's using more possessions for the Pelicans, which can sometimes mean an increase in turnovers, but his rate of miscues has fallen to a minuscule number. His improvement on defense has not been so subtle. Davis leads the NBA in shot-block rate, something he seemed preordained to do coming out of Kentucky.
Cousins
2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
TrueWARP: 13.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.0 | Overall rank: 7
Cousins has exploded on the scene this season, and if you think he is ranked too high, you didn't see him outplay Dwight Howard head-to-head in both of their meetings so far. Cousins has a league-high usage rate, and despite that hefty volume, his true shooting percentage is by far his best yet. He's also handing out more assists and grabbing more rebounds than ever before.
Drummond
3. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 13.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 10
The Pistons have been the league's most mercurial team, capable of beating the league's best teams and capable of getting blown out by teams in the middle class. Drummond has been a stalwart through it all. He leads the league in offensive rebounds, both in raw total and percentage. His overall rebound percentage also leads the league. By and large, Drummond is putting up the same excellent numbers he did as a rookie, only he's doing it in 12 more minutes per game.
Howard
4. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 12.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 11
Howard is having a better statistical season than he did during his one season with the Lakers. However, he's still well off the level of play he established in Orlando. Howard is having an excellent season -- see the No. 11 overall rank in WARP above -- but his shot-block percentage is down by a full percent and he's averaging his fewest minutes per game since his rookie season.
Duncan
5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 10.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.5 | Overall rank: 31
Duncan struggled early in the season, and his overall PER is the lowest of his career. However, that worst-ever PER is still 20.7, which is a strong statement about just how great and consistent Duncan has been. His shooting percentage was well on the road to recovery in December, and the rest of his game seems to be intact.
Noah
6. Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 9.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 25
Noah was supposed to relinquish some of the larger offensive load he carried last season, but another major injury to Bulls star Derrick Rose snuffed out that plan. Chicago is again running much of its offense through the skilled Noah. This season, he's struggled to finish at the basket. However, his playmaking is even better, and he's taking better care of the ball. The defense is still there, as are all the intangibles you'd want in a third wheel.
Horford
7. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 9.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.6 | Overall rank: 30
Horford was having a career season before going down with a season-ending pectoral tear. Before that happened, Horford had become a high-usage big man who kept his efficiency high. He also remained an underrated post defender at the other end.
Lopez
8. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 8.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.7 | Overall rank: 52
Lopez's PER has improved for three straight seasons, reaching a career-best 25.7 in 17 games in 2013-14. That's where it will stay, too, as Lopez sits out the rest of the campaign with yet another foot injury. He has become the most skilled scoring center in the league, so let's just hope his latest procedure can keep the foot injuries at bay.
Jordan
9. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
TrueWARP: 8.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.1 | Overall rank: 20
Jordan has really become a fixture in the middle of the Clippers. He has missed just two games since the start of the 2010-11 season, and has started 187 straight games at the position. This season, he's leading the league in field goal percentage for the second straight season and is also averaging a career-best 13.4 rebounds per game.
Gasol
10. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
TrueWARP: 8.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall rank: 107
Gasol's shooting numbers were down from last season at the time he was hurt, but he was occupying a larger share of the Grizzlies' offense. His shot-blocking was off as well, but nevertheless, you can bet Memphis is eager to get Gasol back.
Next five: Al Jefferson, Charlotte Bobcats; Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers; Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers; Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic; Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz.
Hibbert would crack the top 10 if we were ranking based strictly on this season, but there is little doubt that the metrics aren't doing him justice. He'd probably be more than satisfied to trade a spot in the WARP rankings for a No. 1 seed for the Pacers. Vucevic is putting up the same season he did in 2012-13, though he is getting a little more love from the officials. Still, he needs to become more of a physical presence in order to enter the league's elite in the middle. Favors showing up on this list is bittersweet for Jazz fans. If his partnership with Enes Kanter were working better when they shared the floor, Favors would be grouped with power forwards.
Also notable: Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks (16); Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (17); Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers (20).
Chandler is dragged down by his missed time, of course, but he's also shooting his lowest percentage from the field in nine years. Bosh is clearly much better than his ranking here, but his minutes are down, which exacerbates the many sacrifices he has made to fill a role on a championship roster. Gasol's numbers have been on the upswing of late.
How Top 10 rankings were derived
1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of their career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.
2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.
3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.
4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4.
NBA's top 10 SGs for 2013-14.
Last summer, when NBA teams were putting the finishing touches on their 2013-14 rosters, I ranked the league's players by position. Those numbers were based on forecasts for the season now nearing its halfway point, and were generated by ATH, my projection system based on aging curves, athletic indicators and player trait matching. One of the themes of the series was how quickly things change in sports, and sure enough, much has been altered over the past 5½ months.
This week, we'll be running an in-season update of the rankings. The summer shooting guard rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.
Harden
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 14.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.7 | Overall WARP rank: 13
Any concerns about whether Harden would have trouble integrating with Dwight Howard have been answered, as he's responded with a virtual repeat of his breakout 2012-13 season. Harden is still the No. 1 option in Houston, and he has surpassed Dwyane Wade for the top spot in our rankings at the 2-guard spot. Harden's 3-point percentage is about 4 percent under his career mark, so there is a strong likelihood that the second half of his campaign will be even stronger than his first.
Wade
2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
TrueWARP: 12.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.4 | Overall rank: 37
You don't get the feeling that Wade and his two-time champion teammates have put the pedal to the metal just yet, so there is a chance he could retake the top spot before the next set of summer rankings come around. Wade has sat out on occasion to rest his ailing knees, which has dragged down his bottom-line value. He has been more passive, but that might be by design.
Ginobili
3. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 8.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 27
Not much has changed for Ginobili, who is again playing just 23 to 24 minutes per game, but is making it count when he gets on the floor. He's shooting the ball better than he did last season, but has been far less apt to attack the basket. As has been the case for several years, the Spurs are more interested in what Ginobili can offer in the postseason, and there is little to suggest he can't turn it up when the games really begin to count.
Matthews
4. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 7.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 24
The addition of a strong set of role players helped to boost the Trail Blazers into contention, but just as important has been the rapid climb of Matthews into a bona fide third wheel to go with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Matthews is having his best season shooting the ball, and is now one of the NBA's top long-range threats. His true shooting percentage ranks fourth in the league among qualifying players.
Bryant
5. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
TrueWARP: 7.4 | 2013-14 WARP: Minus-0.2 | Overall rank: 323
For Bryant, it's all about the career. His non-value for this season is not enough to undermine his established baseline, but obviously the negative WARP Bryant put up in six games before getting injured again is scary.
Korver
6. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 75
Korver was ninth in the small forward rankings over the summer, but he has been used mostly as a shooting guard under coach Mike Budenholzer. Either way, his job is to shoot and no one does it better. Korver's .651 effective field goal percentage leads the league, and his true shooting percentage (.664) is a career-best.
Hayward
7. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
TrueWARP: 5.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.5 | Overall rank: 61
As the Jazz have shed veteran players the past couple of years, Hayward has increasingly taken on the alpha role in the Utah offense. His efficiency has tumbled in the process, but his volume increase is enough to push up his bottom-line value. Hayward's floor game has blossomed, especially in terms of assist rate. As Utah acquires better scoring options, Hayward should hopefully be better equipped to provide a higher-percentage style of offense.
Butler
8. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 5.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 102
Butler has struggled with his shooting, but has increased his usage rate in his first season as a full-time starter. Butler's 3-point stroke will probably always come and go, but he can really enhance his value by finishing better at the hoop. As is, his most valuable offensive asset remains his ability to attack the lane and get to the line. On defense, Butler has surpassed Luol Deng as the Bulls' top perimeter stopper, and he's one of the best in the league.
Green
9. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 5.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 76
Green's greatest virtue is consistency and given the variability inherent to 3-point shooting, it's a trait that serves a specialist well. Green has lost a few minutes, and a few possessions, to new Spur Marco Belinelli.
Martin
10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
TrueWARP: 5.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 96
Martin again lands at No. 10 in the shooting guard rankings. After taking on a lower-volume role in Oklahoma City, Martin is basically replicating the offensive stat line he featured in Houston. Playing alongside Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, he doesn't have the ball in his hands quite as much, but he has been more aggressive off the dribble when it comes his way.
Next five: Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors; Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks; Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chicago Bulls
Ellis and Thompson have both shot up the rankings since the summer. Ellis has replaced many of his bad 3-point attempts with drives to the basket, and he's thriving in Dallas. Thompson has been much more efficient inside the arc, and his defensive profile is beginning to live up to his reputation.
Also notable: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers (17); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (1
; Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (25); Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets (26); Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks (31)
Stephenson is having his best season by far, but he's still dragged down by his replacement-level first three seasons in the league. As is, Stephenson's 15.0 PER is exactly league average, and he probably has more value to the Pacers than he would have on another team. Gordon is having a solid season, but on the guard-rich Pelicans roster, he's taking on less of the load. Gordon's usage rate is down 6.5 percent from last season. Beal was forecast to be one of this season's breakout players and while he has shown flashes, he has done little overall to augment his great 3-point shooting.
This week, we'll be running an in-season update of the rankings. The summer shooting guard rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.
Harden
1. James Harden, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 14.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.7 | Overall WARP rank: 13
Any concerns about whether Harden would have trouble integrating with Dwight Howard have been answered, as he's responded with a virtual repeat of his breakout 2012-13 season. Harden is still the No. 1 option in Houston, and he has surpassed Dwyane Wade for the top spot in our rankings at the 2-guard spot. Harden's 3-point percentage is about 4 percent under his career mark, so there is a strong likelihood that the second half of his campaign will be even stronger than his first.
Wade
2. Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
TrueWARP: 12.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.4 | Overall rank: 37
You don't get the feeling that Wade and his two-time champion teammates have put the pedal to the metal just yet, so there is a chance he could retake the top spot before the next set of summer rankings come around. Wade has sat out on occasion to rest his ailing knees, which has dragged down his bottom-line value. He has been more passive, but that might be by design.
Ginobili
3. Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 8.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 27
Not much has changed for Ginobili, who is again playing just 23 to 24 minutes per game, but is making it count when he gets on the floor. He's shooting the ball better than he did last season, but has been far less apt to attack the basket. As has been the case for several years, the Spurs are more interested in what Ginobili can offer in the postseason, and there is little to suggest he can't turn it up when the games really begin to count.
Matthews
4. Wesley Matthews, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 7.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 24
The addition of a strong set of role players helped to boost the Trail Blazers into contention, but just as important has been the rapid climb of Matthews into a bona fide third wheel to go with LaMarcus Aldridge and Damian Lillard. Matthews is having his best season shooting the ball, and is now one of the NBA's top long-range threats. His true shooting percentage ranks fourth in the league among qualifying players.
Bryant
5. Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers
TrueWARP: 7.4 | 2013-14 WARP: Minus-0.2 | Overall rank: 323
For Bryant, it's all about the career. His non-value for this season is not enough to undermine his established baseline, but obviously the negative WARP Bryant put up in six games before getting injured again is scary.
Korver
6. Kyle Korver, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 75
Korver was ninth in the small forward rankings over the summer, but he has been used mostly as a shooting guard under coach Mike Budenholzer. Either way, his job is to shoot and no one does it better. Korver's .651 effective field goal percentage leads the league, and his true shooting percentage (.664) is a career-best.
Hayward
7. Gordon Hayward, Utah Jazz
TrueWARP: 5.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.5 | Overall rank: 61
As the Jazz have shed veteran players the past couple of years, Hayward has increasingly taken on the alpha role in the Utah offense. His efficiency has tumbled in the process, but his volume increase is enough to push up his bottom-line value. Hayward's floor game has blossomed, especially in terms of assist rate. As Utah acquires better scoring options, Hayward should hopefully be better equipped to provide a higher-percentage style of offense.
Butler
8. Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 5.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 102
Butler has struggled with his shooting, but has increased his usage rate in his first season as a full-time starter. Butler's 3-point stroke will probably always come and go, but he can really enhance his value by finishing better at the hoop. As is, his most valuable offensive asset remains his ability to attack the lane and get to the line. On defense, Butler has surpassed Luol Deng as the Bulls' top perimeter stopper, and he's one of the best in the league.
Green
9. Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 5.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.1 | Overall rank: 76
Green's greatest virtue is consistency and given the variability inherent to 3-point shooting, it's a trait that serves a specialist well. Green has lost a few minutes, and a few possessions, to new Spur Marco Belinelli.
Martin
10. Kevin Martin, Minnesota Timberwolves
TrueWARP: 5.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.6 | Overall rank: 96
Martin again lands at No. 10 in the shooting guard rankings. After taking on a lower-volume role in Oklahoma City, Martin is basically replicating the offensive stat line he featured in Houston. Playing alongside Ricky Rubio and Kevin Love, he doesn't have the ball in his hands quite as much, but he has been more aggressive off the dribble when it comes his way.
Next five: Monta Ellis, Dallas Mavericks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors; Louis Williams, Atlanta Hawks; Marcus Thornton, Sacramento Kings; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Chicago Bulls
Ellis and Thompson have both shot up the rankings since the summer. Ellis has replaced many of his bad 3-point attempts with drives to the basket, and he's thriving in Dallas. Thompson has been much more efficient inside the arc, and his defensive profile is beginning to live up to his reputation.
Also notable: Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers (17); Eric Gordon, New Orleans Pelicans (1
; Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards (25); Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets (26); Iman Shumpert, New York Knicks (31)Stephenson is having his best season by far, but he's still dragged down by his replacement-level first three seasons in the league. As is, Stephenson's 15.0 PER is exactly league average, and he probably has more value to the Pacers than he would have on another team. Gordon is having a solid season, but on the guard-rich Pelicans roster, he's taking on less of the load. Gordon's usage rate is down 6.5 percent from last season. Beal was forecast to be one of this season's breakout players and while he has shown flashes, he has done little overall to augment his great 3-point shooting.
victor page
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After the finals, Manu does not belong anywhere on that list.
calibeebee
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Wessy Wes 
Also I'm a little surprised robin Lopez isn't mentioned at all in decent centers list given the fact that the sample size is so small
Also I'm a little surprised robin Lopez isn't mentioned at all in decent centers list given the fact that the sample size is so small
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actually it would be more like '87 jordan who averaged 37.1 per
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they are retros. the shape is off, the toe cap is mostly grey, and the laces loops have been changed
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no disrespect to proshares, but this is my problem with advanced stats.
danny green, korver, and ginobili all better than monta?
danny green, korver, and ginobili all better than monta?
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As huge of a proponent as I am of advanced stats, I always hated his formula for these lists.
So many major discrepancies between the rankings and reality.
So many major discrepancies between the rankings and reality.
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Where's Aaron Affalo on that list?
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not sure what the WARP stat is (too early in the morning for me to bother figuring it out) but demarcus leading all Cs and SGs in it
if the kings played a contender with an allstar center everynight boogie would be the clearcut #1 center
if the kings played a contender with an allstar center everynight boogie would be the clearcut #1 center
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none taken bud. I'm just posting it up to be discussed, I don't agree with most of it
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do you have the lists for the other positions? or are then not out yet?none taken bud. I'm just posting it up to be discussed, I don't agree with most of it
antidope
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lawdog1
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I thought they looked ok, but found them crazy uncomfortable. Returned the only pair I ever bought (meshes).
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it always amazes me how these professional ball players are unaware of which foot stays plant
antidope
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PLEASE let it be that the Sixers are moving to Jersey PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE!
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