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2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN
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EddieDoyers
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Carmelo Anthony not a fit in L.A.
Don't blame it on Carmelo.
Which rooks have the most upside?
The Los Angeles Lakers, following a couple seasons that -- to put it mildly -- didn't exactly turn out the way they'd hoped, are positioning themselves to rebuild. Their consolation prize will be a nice pick in a stacked draft, and they will have lots of cap room this summer to dangle in front of free agents. Meanwhile, on the other end of the continent, Carmelo Anthony has experienced a couple similar seasons in New York, and is preparing for free agency.
A match made in heaven? Maybe not. A 2014 union between Melo and the Lakers wouldn't be a very good idea for either party.
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Brian Windhorst has made the case from Anthony's perspective. Let's take a look at it from the Lakers' point of view.
The team has timed most of its contracts to end this summer, with only Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Robert Sacre locked into guaranteed money next season. Nick Young has a $1.2 million player option, and he will almost certainly opt-out in pursuit of a higher salary. Kendall Marshall is also signed, but his salary is non-guaranteed. In all, the Lakers will be committed to around $34.1 million in salaries, plus a few cap holds for draft pick, free agents they want to keep and surcharges for empty roster slots. This means the team could have a lot of cap room to throw at free agents this summer -- maybe as much as $23 million, depending on where their draft pick falls and which of their own free agents they want to keep.
Anthony is eligible to earn up to $22.5 million in the first year of a new contract, if indeed he opts out and becomes a free agent this summer. The Lakers literally could have a Melo-sized-hole in their cap this July.
So why isn't this a foregone conclusion? For one, Anthony would have to be willing to jump from one uncertain situation to another. He would be joining a team that consisted of Bryant, Nash, Sacre, the team's first-round draft pick, and himself. The rest of the roster would have to be built through a single $2.7 million cap exception and minimum-salary contracts. In other words, the factors that would drive Anthony away from New York are the same factors that would make the Lakers a bad landing spot.
Given Bryant's and Nash's health issues, the complete lack of a supporting cast, and the prospects of reuniting with head coach Mike D'Antoni (which didn't work out so well in New York), the Lakers would have to be pretty low on Anthony's wish list -- in 2014, at least.
[+] EnlargeCarmelo Anthony
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Carmelo Anthony's future is up in the air, and may not land in L.A.
Sources versed in the Lakers' thinking indicate that Anthony isn't very high on the team's wish list either -- at least, not at the price he would surely command. Bryant's extension effectively pushes their timetable back one full year, which means that 2014-15 will be another transition season. But in 2015 the team would be poised to make a big signing in what is sizing up to be a bumper free-agent crop Kevin Love is their rumored free-agent target of choice. In 2016, Bryant will come off the books, which would leave the Lakers with enough cap room to go after another first-tier free agent. The team would then enter the 2016-17 season without Bryant, but with two maximum-salary free agents, their 2014 draft pick, and the supporting assets they accumulate in the meantime. If they pull this off, they could be right back in title contention.
This means that the Lakers' 2014 free-agent targets will likely be limited to players they can sign more cheaply. Unless LeBron James falls into their laps this summer, they're much more likely to sign a solid contributor than a superstar. Their list of targets could include players like Greg Monroe, Eric Bledsoe, Luol Deng, Gordon Hayward and Lance Stephenson. However, many of their potential targets -- including Monroe, Bledsoe and Hayward -- will be restricted free agents, which means the Lakers would have to overpay to sign them. If a restricted free agent is signed to a reasonable salary, he likely will be snatched-up by his previous team. If the Lakers manage to lock one of these players into a reasonable salary, they could then turn their attention to retaining some of their existing players for the transition, such as Kent Bazemore, MarShon Brooks, Jordan Farmar, Xavier Henry, Ryan Kelly, Jodie Meeks, and/or Young. Any deals they sign this summer would be with an eye on their 2015 cap space -- they wouldn't make any moves that would preclude their ability to offer someone a maximum-salary contract next summer.
So where does Anthony fit into the Lakers' plan? Likely nowhere. He's not high on their wish list in 2014, and even if he was, they'd be unlikely to meet his asking price. If Anthony decides to opt in with the Knicks and delay his free agency to 2015 the Lakers could be interested, but then the team would be weighing the value of signing a 31-year-old Anthony at $24.5 million versus a younger and lower-priced free agent like Love. All things considered, whether Anthony becomes a free agent in 2014 or 2015, he's not likely to join the Lakers.
A match made in heaven? Maybe not. A 2014 union between Melo and the Lakers wouldn't be a very good idea for either party.
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Brian Windhorst has made the case from Anthony's perspective. Let's take a look at it from the Lakers' point of view.
The team has timed most of its contracts to end this summer, with only Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash and Robert Sacre locked into guaranteed money next season. Nick Young has a $1.2 million player option, and he will almost certainly opt-out in pursuit of a higher salary. Kendall Marshall is also signed, but his salary is non-guaranteed. In all, the Lakers will be committed to around $34.1 million in salaries, plus a few cap holds for draft pick, free agents they want to keep and surcharges for empty roster slots. This means the team could have a lot of cap room to throw at free agents this summer -- maybe as much as $23 million, depending on where their draft pick falls and which of their own free agents they want to keep.
Anthony is eligible to earn up to $22.5 million in the first year of a new contract, if indeed he opts out and becomes a free agent this summer. The Lakers literally could have a Melo-sized-hole in their cap this July.
So why isn't this a foregone conclusion? For one, Anthony would have to be willing to jump from one uncertain situation to another. He would be joining a team that consisted of Bryant, Nash, Sacre, the team's first-round draft pick, and himself. The rest of the roster would have to be built through a single $2.7 million cap exception and minimum-salary contracts. In other words, the factors that would drive Anthony away from New York are the same factors that would make the Lakers a bad landing spot.
Given Bryant's and Nash's health issues, the complete lack of a supporting cast, and the prospects of reuniting with head coach Mike D'Antoni (which didn't work out so well in New York), the Lakers would have to be pretty low on Anthony's wish list -- in 2014, at least.
[+] EnlargeCarmelo Anthony
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
Carmelo Anthony's future is up in the air, and may not land in L.A.
Sources versed in the Lakers' thinking indicate that Anthony isn't very high on the team's wish list either -- at least, not at the price he would surely command. Bryant's extension effectively pushes their timetable back one full year, which means that 2014-15 will be another transition season. But in 2015 the team would be poised to make a big signing in what is sizing up to be a bumper free-agent crop Kevin Love is their rumored free-agent target of choice. In 2016, Bryant will come off the books, which would leave the Lakers with enough cap room to go after another first-tier free agent. The team would then enter the 2016-17 season without Bryant, but with two maximum-salary free agents, their 2014 draft pick, and the supporting assets they accumulate in the meantime. If they pull this off, they could be right back in title contention.
This means that the Lakers' 2014 free-agent targets will likely be limited to players they can sign more cheaply. Unless LeBron James falls into their laps this summer, they're much more likely to sign a solid contributor than a superstar. Their list of targets could include players like Greg Monroe, Eric Bledsoe, Luol Deng, Gordon Hayward and Lance Stephenson. However, many of their potential targets -- including Monroe, Bledsoe and Hayward -- will be restricted free agents, which means the Lakers would have to overpay to sign them. If a restricted free agent is signed to a reasonable salary, he likely will be snatched-up by his previous team. If the Lakers manage to lock one of these players into a reasonable salary, they could then turn their attention to retaining some of their existing players for the transition, such as Kent Bazemore, MarShon Brooks, Jordan Farmar, Xavier Henry, Ryan Kelly, Jodie Meeks, and/or Young. Any deals they sign this summer would be with an eye on their 2015 cap space -- they wouldn't make any moves that would preclude their ability to offer someone a maximum-salary contract next summer.
So where does Anthony fit into the Lakers' plan? Likely nowhere. He's not high on their wish list in 2014, and even if he was, they'd be unlikely to meet his asking price. If Anthony decides to opt in with the Knicks and delay his free agency to 2015 the Lakers could be interested, but then the team would be weighing the value of signing a 31-year-old Anthony at $24.5 million versus a younger and lower-priced free agent like Love. All things considered, whether Anthony becomes a free agent in 2014 or 2015, he's not likely to join the Lakers.
Don't blame it on Carmelo.
The New York Knicks are 18 games below .500, their starting point guard was recently arrested on gun charges and superstar Carmelo Anthony is reportedly being wooed by other stars to get out of town once this season is over.
Given all this information, it's understandable that the Knicks' hysteria has reached levels unseen since the Isiah Thomas era. But just as the Knicks seemingly spiral out of control, so have some of the perceptions of why it's happening. Not all are to be believed.
Here are three myths that need to end.
Myth No. 1: Carmelo Anthony is the problem.
Carmelo Anthony is not a perfect player. He probably can't win an NBA title as the best player on the team. But you know what? The same goes for just about every star in the league. The fact that the Knicks are projected to win just 31 games this season should not be a reflection of Anthony's limited powers.
Plenty of stars have experienced train-wreck seasons only to have the "overrated" labels miraculously disappear once they finally played with star talent. Did we forget the time that Paul Pierce's Boston Celtics went 24-58 in 2006-07? Or the time that Kevin Garnett's Timberwolves went 32-50 that same season? Or the time that Chris Bosh's Toronto Raptors went 33-49 in 2008-09? Or how about when Kobe Bryant's Los Angeles Lakers went 34-48 in 2004-05?
If we're being objective, Anthony's season, on its own merits, is no worse than last season when he finished third in the MVP race. His 24.8 PER is currently top-7 in the league. Last season it was 24.8. If you put Anthony's numbers from this season and last season side-by-side, you'd notice that the only difference is that he's rebounding more and shooting more efficiently from downtown this season. Seriously, go and check.
So enough with the "Carmelo doesn't play defense" slams and "Melo can't win it all being the No. 1 guy" barbs. Every star has his flaws and needs star talent to win. It's convenient to throw Anthony under the bus because he takes a lot of shots, and his team has fallen apart around him. But Anthony's shot efficiency, as measured by true shooting percentage, is better than Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson this season. Reputations die hard, but he's far more efficient than he used to be.
It might be hard to see through the mess around him, but Anthony's no different than the player we watched get MVP buzz last season. Don't confuse correlation with causation.
Myth No. 2: Tyson Chandler is washed up.
The Knicks currently rank 26th in defensive efficiency. It's an absolute mess. For someone who bills himself as a defensive-minded coach, Mike Woodson has done an awful job of getting his players to execute on the defensive end this season. Every other Knicks defensive possession ends with rampant finger-pointing and frustrated head-shaking. This is the stuff you'd expect to see in a high school gym when teenagers are trying to learn how to play zone for the first time, not in Madison Square Garden with a marquee franchise.
Joakim Noah
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
Chandler has been mostly consistent, but team D is atrocious.
Former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler finds himself at the center of it all. All season long, he has been vocal about the Knicks' defensive strategies, or lack thereof. Can you blame him? He has to clean up the mess left behind by Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith, Andrea Bargnani and Amar'e Stoudemire -- four of the worst team defenders this league has to offer.
Watching film, you'll see that Chandler has lost a step ever since he broke his leg earlier this season. But it hasn't turned him into a 7-foot stump of petrified wood. His rebound rate (19.7 percent) and block rate (3.9 percent) are higher than they've been since he came to New York, and he dunks more often than all but five players in the league. The question becomes whether his athleticism only abandons him in pick-and-roll defense or it's the switch-happy schematics that have the Knicks ranking dead-last in that category, according to Synergy Sports video tracking.
Because when you watch the Knicks' tape (pun not intended), you'll find that Chandler isn't the one to blame for the Knicks' defensive ills. The only consistency in the Knicks' defense is inconsistency. The defensive game plan seems to change every possession down the floor and sometimes within the same possession. Switch. No, stay with your guy. Wait, trap. Switch-ish? No matter how they get there, the result is usually the same: open layup or 3-pointer. Dig into their numbers and you'll find that 63 percent of the shots allowed by the Knicks have come in the restricted area or behind the arc -- the highest such rate in the league.
Looking at the Knicks' defensive woes this season, it's convenient to pin it on the 31-year-old Chandler, who is in charge with anchoring the back line. But from here, the problem is not a broken player, but a broken system exacerbated by a wealth of matador defenders.
Myth No. 3: The Knicks are too cap-strapped to turn it around
The Knicks are capped out next season, but they're not far away from being a solid playoff team out East. Lest we forget that the Knicks also were capped out last season when they went 54-28. The blueprint can work: Surround Anthony with sharpshooters, let Chandler do his job on the back line and protect long-term assets. They just have to do a better job of leadership and managing the margins.
James Dolan
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
How many of Knicks owner James Dolan's fingerprints are on his team's failure?
Don't extend a long-term contract to a mercurial gunner who just underwent knee surgery (Smith). And certainly don't hand out a guaranteed roster spot to his sibling as a favor. Don't move valuable trade chips for Bargnani, who addressed zero needs as a perimeter chucker with non-existent help defense and is being paid $11.5 million next season. And don't guarantee Chauncey Billups' $14.2 million option only to use the amnesty provision on him less than a year later when Stoudemire's albatross contract was still on the books.
Who knows how many of the Knicks' blunders have owner Jim Dolan's fingerprints on them. But it's not just him. Knicks general manager Steve Mills needs to have decision-making independence, and that includes from Creative Artists Agency, who represents practically half the Knicks' staff, including Anthony, Woodson, the Smith brothers and Bargnani.
Anthony can work in New York, but the Knicks have to be pragmatic about their strengths and weaknesses. Just because they have a market advantage in New York doesn't mean they have to take on big names on swollen contracts (see: the Bargnani deal). Every inch on the margin matters, which is why finding young players on cheap contracts can be just as fruitful as landing the big fish. Look at Patrick Beverley and Chandler Parsons in Houston. Lance Stephenson in Indiana and Mario Chalmers in Miami. Every piece matters.
It's true, the Knicks don't have the assets to pull off a franchise-changing trade a la the Celtics in the summer of 2007. But if the Celtics' organization showed anything with Pierce through the 24-win season, it's patience. The summer of 2015 isn't far away, and when a seventh-seed is five games below .500, neither is the road to respectability.
Given all this information, it's understandable that the Knicks' hysteria has reached levels unseen since the Isiah Thomas era. But just as the Knicks seemingly spiral out of control, so have some of the perceptions of why it's happening. Not all are to be believed.
Here are three myths that need to end.
Myth No. 1: Carmelo Anthony is the problem.
Carmelo Anthony is not a perfect player. He probably can't win an NBA title as the best player on the team. But you know what? The same goes for just about every star in the league. The fact that the Knicks are projected to win just 31 games this season should not be a reflection of Anthony's limited powers.
Plenty of stars have experienced train-wreck seasons only to have the "overrated" labels miraculously disappear once they finally played with star talent. Did we forget the time that Paul Pierce's Boston Celtics went 24-58 in 2006-07? Or the time that Kevin Garnett's Timberwolves went 32-50 that same season? Or the time that Chris Bosh's Toronto Raptors went 33-49 in 2008-09? Or how about when Kobe Bryant's Los Angeles Lakers went 34-48 in 2004-05?
If we're being objective, Anthony's season, on its own merits, is no worse than last season when he finished third in the MVP race. His 24.8 PER is currently top-7 in the league. Last season it was 24.8. If you put Anthony's numbers from this season and last season side-by-side, you'd notice that the only difference is that he's rebounding more and shooting more efficiently from downtown this season. Seriously, go and check.
So enough with the "Carmelo doesn't play defense" slams and "Melo can't win it all being the No. 1 guy" barbs. Every star has his flaws and needs star talent to win. It's convenient to throw Anthony under the bus because he takes a lot of shots, and his team has fallen apart around him. But Anthony's shot efficiency, as measured by true shooting percentage, is better than Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge and Al Jefferson this season. Reputations die hard, but he's far more efficient than he used to be.
It might be hard to see through the mess around him, but Anthony's no different than the player we watched get MVP buzz last season. Don't confuse correlation with causation.
Myth No. 2: Tyson Chandler is washed up.
The Knicks currently rank 26th in defensive efficiency. It's an absolute mess. For someone who bills himself as a defensive-minded coach, Mike Woodson has done an awful job of getting his players to execute on the defensive end this season. Every other Knicks defensive possession ends with rampant finger-pointing and frustrated head-shaking. This is the stuff you'd expect to see in a high school gym when teenagers are trying to learn how to play zone for the first time, not in Madison Square Garden with a marquee franchise.
Joakim Noah
Mike DiNovo/USA TODAY Sports
Chandler has been mostly consistent, but team D is atrocious.
Former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler finds himself at the center of it all. All season long, he has been vocal about the Knicks' defensive strategies, or lack thereof. Can you blame him? He has to clean up the mess left behind by Raymond Felton, J.R. Smith, Andrea Bargnani and Amar'e Stoudemire -- four of the worst team defenders this league has to offer.
Watching film, you'll see that Chandler has lost a step ever since he broke his leg earlier this season. But it hasn't turned him into a 7-foot stump of petrified wood. His rebound rate (19.7 percent) and block rate (3.9 percent) are higher than they've been since he came to New York, and he dunks more often than all but five players in the league. The question becomes whether his athleticism only abandons him in pick-and-roll defense or it's the switch-happy schematics that have the Knicks ranking dead-last in that category, according to Synergy Sports video tracking.
Because when you watch the Knicks' tape (pun not intended), you'll find that Chandler isn't the one to blame for the Knicks' defensive ills. The only consistency in the Knicks' defense is inconsistency. The defensive game plan seems to change every possession down the floor and sometimes within the same possession. Switch. No, stay with your guy. Wait, trap. Switch-ish? No matter how they get there, the result is usually the same: open layup or 3-pointer. Dig into their numbers and you'll find that 63 percent of the shots allowed by the Knicks have come in the restricted area or behind the arc -- the highest such rate in the league.
Looking at the Knicks' defensive woes this season, it's convenient to pin it on the 31-year-old Chandler, who is in charge with anchoring the back line. But from here, the problem is not a broken player, but a broken system exacerbated by a wealth of matador defenders.
Myth No. 3: The Knicks are too cap-strapped to turn it around
The Knicks are capped out next season, but they're not far away from being a solid playoff team out East. Lest we forget that the Knicks also were capped out last season when they went 54-28. The blueprint can work: Surround Anthony with sharpshooters, let Chandler do his job on the back line and protect long-term assets. They just have to do a better job of leadership and managing the margins.
James Dolan
Brad Penner/USA TODAY Sports
How many of Knicks owner James Dolan's fingerprints are on his team's failure?
Don't extend a long-term contract to a mercurial gunner who just underwent knee surgery (Smith). And certainly don't hand out a guaranteed roster spot to his sibling as a favor. Don't move valuable trade chips for Bargnani, who addressed zero needs as a perimeter chucker with non-existent help defense and is being paid $11.5 million next season. And don't guarantee Chauncey Billups' $14.2 million option only to use the amnesty provision on him less than a year later when Stoudemire's albatross contract was still on the books.
Who knows how many of the Knicks' blunders have owner Jim Dolan's fingerprints on them. But it's not just him. Knicks general manager Steve Mills needs to have decision-making independence, and that includes from Creative Artists Agency, who represents practically half the Knicks' staff, including Anthony, Woodson, the Smith brothers and Bargnani.
Anthony can work in New York, but the Knicks have to be pragmatic about their strengths and weaknesses. Just because they have a market advantage in New York doesn't mean they have to take on big names on swollen contracts (see: the Bargnani deal). Every inch on the margin matters, which is why finding young players on cheap contracts can be just as fruitful as landing the big fish. Look at Patrick Beverley and Chandler Parsons in Houston. Lance Stephenson in Indiana and Mario Chalmers in Miami. Every piece matters.
It's true, the Knicks don't have the assets to pull off a franchise-changing trade a la the Celtics in the summer of 2007. But if the Celtics' organization showed anything with Pierce through the 24-win season, it's patience. The summer of 2015 isn't far away, and when a seventh-seed is five games below .500, neither is the road to respectability.
Which rooks have the most upside?
For a player to reach his full potential, it "takes a village." Or in this case, a franchise. The coaches, the systems, the roster -- all have an impact on how well each player develops. This is one reason bad teams tend to stay bad and the great teams maintain their high level of play longer than one might expect.
Look at the Spurs. In just the past few years, guys such as Gary Neal, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli (plus a surging Patty Mills) have all excelled in San Antonio. Not to mention their three surefire Hall of Famers -- one a late first-round pick (Tony Parker) and one a late second-rounder (Manu Ginobili). That those two reached elite levels while Tim Duncan, a No. 1 pick, is arguably a top-five player of all time is evidence of a franchise helping players reach the limits of their talent -- a very rare thing indeed. Most franchises are not so lucky, to the detriment of their players.
This year's rookie class might be short on overall star talent, but there are still a few guys with enough raw ability to reach All-Star Games. Let's remove the handicap that some of their teams present to them and just rate them as if each of them played for a franchise like the Spurs. In short, who has the highest upside based on what we have already seen from these young men? Here's my top 10:
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Michael Carter-Williams
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Trey Burke
4 Nick Calathes
5 Tim Hardaway Jr.
6 Mason Plumlee
7 Kelly Olynyk
8 G. Antetokounmpo
9 Nate Wolters
10 Steven Adams
• Click here for the complete rankings »
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Just look at the past few years. The most dominant players in the NBA have been Kevin Durant and LeBron James. The way the game is played in the NBA now favors the explosively athletic, the freakishly tall and long, and the skilled. All wrapped up in one man. That is Giannis. His learning curve is steep, but his talents are immense. This is a man who one day will get a triple-double. Then another, and another. He may very well add a quadruple-double before he is done. And that is where his true value lies.
Antetokounmpo has a chance to average 20 points per game, in efficient fashion, while also being a first team all-league defender. He already has some impressive skills on offense, and, considering the jump in competition he made from his past seasons to the NBA (the biggest of any rookie), his relative success this year should be seen as a bonus.
Antetokounmpo's season stats compare well to Paul George's rookie season despite being a year younger as a rookie than George was with nowhere near the overall basketball experience George had (63 games and more than 2,000 minutes in college). In his perfect developmental arc, he can land ahead of George as a player and just behind Durant.
2. Anthony Bennett, Cavaliers
We discussed his overall talent here a few weeks ago. A Bennett who is 6-8 and can get down to about 230 pounds will be a double-double machine averaging north of 20 points per game. He won't be Kevin Love, but he won't be far from that level, either.
Love plays the game with such ferocity now, something that was not evident earlier in his career. Bennett can improve his motor hugely, and, with his sweet-shooting stroke, strong frame, great hands and natural scoring feel, that motor can help carry him to All-Star Games for years. His physical talent will allow him to be a dominant post player with range -- a rare combination.
3. Victor Oladipo, Magic
Energy is a talent. Toughness is a talent. Work ethic is a talent. Explosive athleticism is a talent. And deep-range shooting is a talent. Oladipo has the chance to be elite in each area. He might lack an ideal position, but that combination of talents at elite levels will always find a spot in a system. His franchise and coaches need only to construct systems that account for what Oladipo can and can't do.
Few players can defend point guards and shooting guards equally well, but Dipo has a great chance to be one of those guys, thanks to his powerful frame, quick feet and long arms. He's just now learning how to be a good shooter, too, after only really looking for the 3-point shot in his last season at Indiana. There is no reason to think he's not going to put in the work on his shot, given that it is vital to his success going forward.
4. Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
It's a bit hard to figure out who the real MCW is, considering how incredibly well he started the season and how bad he has been of late. After all, he made 15 3s in the first 11 days of the season and just 28 in the next 110 days. And shooting is the one big question mark on him. Sure, most players improve over time as shooters and expand their range. But how much they improve makes the difference. For MCW to be a better overall player than the guys above him on this list, he'll have to improve in this area far more than it looks as if he's capable of.
But he can still be a very good starter without a perimeter shot that is dependable. He'll strengthen in time and be a matchup problem for most guards inside. He also should be able to defend all three perimeter positions.
When he is surrounded by better scorers and shooters -- a key plan for the Sixers going forward -- he'll have great driving lanes with the ball and cutting lanes off the ball, making him a threat to be a legit scorer even without a reliable shot.
5. Nick Calathes, Grizzlies
Calathes is not just the best passer in this class but is one of the top passers in the NBA, making him the rare point guard who can pass and defend. And it's his defensive potential that gives him the nod over other drafted point guards below him on this list. He's not just capable of creating steals, like Ricky Rubio, but also makes it hard for scorers to get good shots against him.
Calathes has been a better shooter than expected since becoming a permanent rotation player for Memphis, an area of his game that will continue to improve. In Europe, he was not asked to shoot from the outside like he must in the NBA, so he'll have to address it in a way he has not had to before.
In his seven starts this season, he averaged 14.7 points, 4.7 boards, 4.9 assists and 2.6 steals; every number except for steals likely would be higher in the future if he were a full-time starter. Remember, this was a top-five player in a strong 2009 draft based on John Hollinger's respected player ratings.
6. Trey Burke, Jazz
Burke might be small compared with what an "ideal" point guard might look like, but he has dealt with that same issue for most of his playing career. His skills, toughness and competitive nature more than make up for any lack of height, even in the NBA.
Burke can be an elite shooter and an excellent passer -- not in the Steve Nash/Steph Curry mold, but not far from it. When he reaches his peak, he'll be a 40-plus percent shooter from 3, a 90-plus percent shooter from the line and a poised yet aggressive scoring lead guard with an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio.
He has less defensive potential than Carter-Williams and Calathes, who are much taller players, but he can be a bulldog on that end, nonetheless. Burke has the upside to be a starting point guard on a great team, with the leadership qualities to make him a captain.
7. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons
KCP has the look of a starting 2-guard in the NBA. Although he hasn't shown the craft or quickness to earn lots of foul calls, which limits his effectiveness as a scorer, he should be a good scorer who can be used to run off screens (staggers, pin downs) to good, if not great, effect. His longer-than-average arms and high release allow him to get his shot off over strong contests.
He also has shown some talent as a good defender, wrapping up guys with his long arms without fouling and showing quick bursts of speed in tight spaces to be able to cut off drivers.
8. Ben McLemore, Kings
McLemore is not tall or long for an NBA shooting guard, but he has some power and a frame that allows him to be a strong guard, much like former King Mitch Richmond. He also has significant speed, which will allow him to be a factor in transition beyond that of an average guard.
He is not showing special skills as a scorer, however -- like KCP, he doesn't look as if he knows how to get fouled frequently. So, his best role down the road will be that of a solid starting shooting guard who can defend his position. With already polished shooting mechanics and a decent feel for getting open shots, he should be a double-figure scorer who overpowers a good number of shooting guards.
9. Mason Plumlee, Nets
We know he can be an efficient player on offense and an impact player on defense. But can he help anchor a playoff team? His brother, Miles, is doing that in Phoenix, and Mason has the potential to be similar as a starting big who leads his team in rebounds and blocked shots.
Mason does not project to be a scorer in this league, but, because he finishes well and knows what he can and can't do, he can be an effective offensive player when surrounded by a pick-and-roll specialist, a go-to scorer and some shooters. In other words, he'll get buckets when defenses are drawn elsewhere, and not every athletic big can finish the way he can. He might be best served as a sixth man/energy guy. Chris Andersen seems to be someone he eventually could play like.
10. Dennis Schroder, Hawks; Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks
Both guys have starting-level talent. Schroder is just 20 and is playing against NBA athletes for the first time. It's one of the biggest advantages American players gain --: They are playing against future pros and big-time athletes from at least eighth grade and on. Schroder's quickness is elite-level, so, when he improves even a little as a shooter, his whole offensive game will grow. He will have far better angles then to create for teammates and can be a real pest on defense as a ball hawk (no pun intended).
Hardaway Jr. is a good shooter now and can end up as an elite-level shooter one day. That alone earns him a starting nod on many teams because he is already an athlete. He'll be a great fit next to better scorers or playmakers who can draw help defenders, leaving him open more.
Note: This list does not account for Nerlens Noel, who has been out with an injury all season.
To be determined
Otto Porter, Wizards
Sometimes, rookies just need a reset. There was a time, back when he was a rookie, when no one in the NBA thought J.J. Redick was ever going to be any kind of an NBA player. Back pain and a summer DUI threw him into a tailspin that he just could not recover from. Now we have NBA experts suggesting that Redick's return is vital if the Clippers are going to contend, and he is in the first year of a sizable new contract. Porter is a similar case. Young, talented and stuck behind solid vets who are playing well, on a team desperate to make the playoffs, Porter missed a good part of the season because of a hip injury and has never looked comfortable or confident since. If he has a great summer league, it would not be a surprise to see a totally different player next winter.
Alex Len, Suns
Len also missed the start of the season (and much of the offseason) with an injury. His team is the surprise team of the league and he has a number of versatile big men who fit their scheme in Phoenix perfectly. It would be unfair to suggest anything has been learned about Len's future as of now.
Look at the Spurs. In just the past few years, guys such as Gary Neal, Danny Green and Marco Belinelli (plus a surging Patty Mills) have all excelled in San Antonio. Not to mention their three surefire Hall of Famers -- one a late first-round pick (Tony Parker) and one a late second-rounder (Manu Ginobili). That those two reached elite levels while Tim Duncan, a No. 1 pick, is arguably a top-five player of all time is evidence of a franchise helping players reach the limits of their talent -- a very rare thing indeed. Most franchises are not so lucky, to the detriment of their players.
This year's rookie class might be short on overall star talent, but there are still a few guys with enough raw ability to reach All-Star Games. Let's remove the handicap that some of their teams present to them and just rate them as if each of them played for a franchise like the Spurs. In short, who has the highest upside based on what we have already seen from these young men? Here's my top 10:
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Michael Carter-Williams
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Trey Burke
4 Nick Calathes
5 Tim Hardaway Jr.
6 Mason Plumlee
7 Kelly Olynyk
8 G. Antetokounmpo
9 Nate Wolters
10 Steven Adams
• Click here for the complete rankings »
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Just look at the past few years. The most dominant players in the NBA have been Kevin Durant and LeBron James. The way the game is played in the NBA now favors the explosively athletic, the freakishly tall and long, and the skilled. All wrapped up in one man. That is Giannis. His learning curve is steep, but his talents are immense. This is a man who one day will get a triple-double. Then another, and another. He may very well add a quadruple-double before he is done. And that is where his true value lies.
Antetokounmpo has a chance to average 20 points per game, in efficient fashion, while also being a first team all-league defender. He already has some impressive skills on offense, and, considering the jump in competition he made from his past seasons to the NBA (the biggest of any rookie), his relative success this year should be seen as a bonus.
Antetokounmpo's season stats compare well to Paul George's rookie season despite being a year younger as a rookie than George was with nowhere near the overall basketball experience George had (63 games and more than 2,000 minutes in college). In his perfect developmental arc, he can land ahead of George as a player and just behind Durant.
2. Anthony Bennett, Cavaliers
We discussed his overall talent here a few weeks ago. A Bennett who is 6-8 and can get down to about 230 pounds will be a double-double machine averaging north of 20 points per game. He won't be Kevin Love, but he won't be far from that level, either.
Love plays the game with such ferocity now, something that was not evident earlier in his career. Bennett can improve his motor hugely, and, with his sweet-shooting stroke, strong frame, great hands and natural scoring feel, that motor can help carry him to All-Star Games for years. His physical talent will allow him to be a dominant post player with range -- a rare combination.
3. Victor Oladipo, Magic
Energy is a talent. Toughness is a talent. Work ethic is a talent. Explosive athleticism is a talent. And deep-range shooting is a talent. Oladipo has the chance to be elite in each area. He might lack an ideal position, but that combination of talents at elite levels will always find a spot in a system. His franchise and coaches need only to construct systems that account for what Oladipo can and can't do.
Few players can defend point guards and shooting guards equally well, but Dipo has a great chance to be one of those guys, thanks to his powerful frame, quick feet and long arms. He's just now learning how to be a good shooter, too, after only really looking for the 3-point shot in his last season at Indiana. There is no reason to think he's not going to put in the work on his shot, given that it is vital to his success going forward.
4. Michael Carter-Williams, 76ers
It's a bit hard to figure out who the real MCW is, considering how incredibly well he started the season and how bad he has been of late. After all, he made 15 3s in the first 11 days of the season and just 28 in the next 110 days. And shooting is the one big question mark on him. Sure, most players improve over time as shooters and expand their range. But how much they improve makes the difference. For MCW to be a better overall player than the guys above him on this list, he'll have to improve in this area far more than it looks as if he's capable of.
But he can still be a very good starter without a perimeter shot that is dependable. He'll strengthen in time and be a matchup problem for most guards inside. He also should be able to defend all three perimeter positions.
When he is surrounded by better scorers and shooters -- a key plan for the Sixers going forward -- he'll have great driving lanes with the ball and cutting lanes off the ball, making him a threat to be a legit scorer even without a reliable shot.
5. Nick Calathes, Grizzlies
Calathes is not just the best passer in this class but is one of the top passers in the NBA, making him the rare point guard who can pass and defend. And it's his defensive potential that gives him the nod over other drafted point guards below him on this list. He's not just capable of creating steals, like Ricky Rubio, but also makes it hard for scorers to get good shots against him.
Calathes has been a better shooter than expected since becoming a permanent rotation player for Memphis, an area of his game that will continue to improve. In Europe, he was not asked to shoot from the outside like he must in the NBA, so he'll have to address it in a way he has not had to before.
In his seven starts this season, he averaged 14.7 points, 4.7 boards, 4.9 assists and 2.6 steals; every number except for steals likely would be higher in the future if he were a full-time starter. Remember, this was a top-five player in a strong 2009 draft based on John Hollinger's respected player ratings.
6. Trey Burke, Jazz
Burke might be small compared with what an "ideal" point guard might look like, but he has dealt with that same issue for most of his playing career. His skills, toughness and competitive nature more than make up for any lack of height, even in the NBA.
Burke can be an elite shooter and an excellent passer -- not in the Steve Nash/Steph Curry mold, but not far from it. When he reaches his peak, he'll be a 40-plus percent shooter from 3, a 90-plus percent shooter from the line and a poised yet aggressive scoring lead guard with an excellent assist-to-turnover ratio.
He has less defensive potential than Carter-Williams and Calathes, who are much taller players, but he can be a bulldog on that end, nonetheless. Burke has the upside to be a starting point guard on a great team, with the leadership qualities to make him a captain.
7. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Pistons
KCP has the look of a starting 2-guard in the NBA. Although he hasn't shown the craft or quickness to earn lots of foul calls, which limits his effectiveness as a scorer, he should be a good scorer who can be used to run off screens (staggers, pin downs) to good, if not great, effect. His longer-than-average arms and high release allow him to get his shot off over strong contests.
He also has shown some talent as a good defender, wrapping up guys with his long arms without fouling and showing quick bursts of speed in tight spaces to be able to cut off drivers.
8. Ben McLemore, Kings
McLemore is not tall or long for an NBA shooting guard, but he has some power and a frame that allows him to be a strong guard, much like former King Mitch Richmond. He also has significant speed, which will allow him to be a factor in transition beyond that of an average guard.
He is not showing special skills as a scorer, however -- like KCP, he doesn't look as if he knows how to get fouled frequently. So, his best role down the road will be that of a solid starting shooting guard who can defend his position. With already polished shooting mechanics and a decent feel for getting open shots, he should be a double-figure scorer who overpowers a good number of shooting guards.
9. Mason Plumlee, Nets
We know he can be an efficient player on offense and an impact player on defense. But can he help anchor a playoff team? His brother, Miles, is doing that in Phoenix, and Mason has the potential to be similar as a starting big who leads his team in rebounds and blocked shots.
Mason does not project to be a scorer in this league, but, because he finishes well and knows what he can and can't do, he can be an effective offensive player when surrounded by a pick-and-roll specialist, a go-to scorer and some shooters. In other words, he'll get buckets when defenses are drawn elsewhere, and not every athletic big can finish the way he can. He might be best served as a sixth man/energy guy. Chris Andersen seems to be someone he eventually could play like.
10. Dennis Schroder, Hawks; Tim Hardaway Jr., Knicks
Both guys have starting-level talent. Schroder is just 20 and is playing against NBA athletes for the first time. It's one of the biggest advantages American players gain --: They are playing against future pros and big-time athletes from at least eighth grade and on. Schroder's quickness is elite-level, so, when he improves even a little as a shooter, his whole offensive game will grow. He will have far better angles then to create for teammates and can be a real pest on defense as a ball hawk (no pun intended).
Hardaway Jr. is a good shooter now and can end up as an elite-level shooter one day. That alone earns him a starting nod on many teams because he is already an athlete. He'll be a great fit next to better scorers or playmakers who can draw help defenders, leaving him open more.
Note: This list does not account for Nerlens Noel, who has been out with an injury all season.
To be determined
Otto Porter, Wizards
Sometimes, rookies just need a reset. There was a time, back when he was a rookie, when no one in the NBA thought J.J. Redick was ever going to be any kind of an NBA player. Back pain and a summer DUI threw him into a tailspin that he just could not recover from. Now we have NBA experts suggesting that Redick's return is vital if the Clippers are going to contend, and he is in the first year of a sizable new contract. Porter is a similar case. Young, talented and stuck behind solid vets who are playing well, on a team desperate to make the playoffs, Porter missed a good part of the season because of a hip injury and has never looked comfortable or confident since. If he has a great summer league, it would not be a surprise to see a totally different player next winter.
Alex Len, Suns
Len also missed the start of the season (and much of the offseason) with an injury. His team is the surprise team of the league and he has a number of versatile big men who fit their scheme in Phoenix perfectly. It would be unfair to suggest anything has been learned about Len's future as of now.
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Melo doesn't need 11 paragraphs on why he doesn't fit there, I'm sure he had the game on in the background
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For the record lebron complained that the **** road up under his arm during shooting. That's not a sleeve issue, that a fit issue. An extra small jersey with no sleeves would do the same thing. They need to quit wearing extra medium shirts, that'll solve that problem
antidope
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I would get a tatt like what Steph Curry has but thats about it
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Looks like the Knicks offered Phil Jackson a job as the head coach but he declined. However, he was also offered a position in the front office and is expected to decide next week ..
According to the NY Daily News
According to the NY Daily News
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I would hope that he's checking with the Lakers to see if they are offering anything, before taking that position.
O gawd, the fan outrage to the Lakers is gonna be at all time high if Phil takes that job.
O gawd, the fan outrage to the Lakers is gonna be at all time high if Phil takes that job.
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