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The NBA Draft Thread
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Dana Altman has Oregon at the top of the Pac-12 standings at 7-2. Chris Pietsch/AP Photo
In Oregon's 91-74 win at Arizona State, Boucher scored 26 points (including 4-of-8 shooting on his 3s) to go along with 10 rebounds and seven blocks. The junior college transfer is only in his fourth season of organized basketball, and his physique type is often classed as "string bean," but in terms of the senior's impact on opposing teams, he is not to be taken lightly. While we're on that subject, the Ducks would be well advised not to take their next two opponents lightly: Colorado and Utah have combined to win eight games in a row, and the Utes, in particular, appear to have finally shaken off their weird "Where's Delon?" funk. Altman's men had better be ready.
Pac-12Team W-L Pace PPP OPPP EM
1.Arizona 5-4 68.7 1.18 1.05 +0.13
2.Oregon 7-2 68.9 1.14 1.04 +0.10
3.Utah 6-3 65.5 1.05 1.00 +0.05
4. USC 6-3 75.6 1.09 1.04 +0.05
5. Colorado 6-3 69.7 1.04 1.00 +0.04
6. UCLA 4-5 73.1 1.09 1.08 +0.01
7. California 4-5 68.0 1.04 1.03 +0.01
8. Washington 6-3 77.2 1.07 1.10 -0.03
9. Arizona State 2-7 72.4 1.06 1.11 -0.05
10. Oregon State 3-6 68.1 1.00 1.07 -0.07
11. Stanford 4-5 68.1 1.00 1.08 -0.08
12. Washington State 1-8 72.9 0.99 1.16 -0.17
Average 70.7 1.06
ACC: Crunch time for the Hurricanes
Miami has rebounded impressively and unmistakably from a 13-loss 2014-15 that ended in the NIT finals. The Hurricanes enter February at 16-4 and, more important, Jim Larranaga's team is showing up in the mock brackets as a No. 4 or even a No. 3 seed. On the surface, it's all going according to plan in Coral Gables.
And that surface appearance may well turn out to be correct. Based on the 531 possessions that the Canes have played against ACC competition to date, however, it does seem likely that Miami will need to step up its level of play to merit the seeds it's earning right now in the mocks. It's not just the team's No. 6 ranking in the conference's per-possession standings, it's the fact that Larranaga's men have posted that scoring margin while playing the league's No. 11-ranked strength of schedule. Of course, this being the ACC, the Canes will now have every opportunity to walk the No. 3 seed walk. The remaining schedule includes two games against Notre Dame, a rematch against Virginia and one game apiece against North Carolina and Louisville.
Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez have excelled all season long from 2-point land, but they've been unable to extend their early-season 3-point success in conference play. Together they're shooting a combined 24 percent from beyond the arc against ACC defenses, and that's a big reason why in ACC play this has been the league's No. 12-ranked offense. Still, if those looks start falling again, look out: McClellan, in particular, has been unstoppable inside the 3-point line, and at home the Miami defense has held the ACC to just 0.89 points per possession. A challenging back half of the schedule awaits, and with some help on the perimeter, the Hurricanes can prove they're up to the task.
ACCTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. North Carolina 8-1 73.4 1.11 0.96 +0.15
2. Notre Dame 6-3 65.6 1.20 1.10 +0.10
3. Duke 4-4 66.7 1.17 1.08 +0.09
4. Louisville 7-2 67.2 1.04 0.96 +0.08
5. Virginia 6-3 61.9 1.11 1.03 +0.08
6. Miami 5-3 66.4 1.04 0.99 +0.05
7. Syracuse 5-5 62.7 1.06 1.02 +0.04
8. Pittsburgh 6-3 65.9 1.11 1.08 +0.03
9. Clemson 6-3 64.8 1.08 1.06 +0.02
10. Florida State 5-5 71.7 1.04 1.06 -0.02
11. NC State 2-8 68.1 1.08 1.11 -0.03
12. Georgia Tech 2-6 69.2 1.06 1.10 -0.04
13. Virginia Tech 4-5 70.4 1.06 1.13 -0.07
14. Wake Forest 1-8 70.1 0.98 1.15 -0.17
15. Boston College 0-8 67.9 0.82 1.13 -0.31
Average 67.5 1.06
Big 12: Why the Jayhawks' long odds could be even worse than they are
You may be aware of the fact that Kansas has won at least a share of a rather remarkable 11 consecutive Big 12 regular-season titles. Now, however, the streak appears to be in serious jeopardy. The Jayhawks are a game back of No. 1-ranked Oklahoma and, even worse, that's with the home game against the Sooners already having been played. (It was rather memorable.) KU will visit Norman for the return date on Feb. 13; absent a win there, the thinking goes, Kansas might finish the regular season looking up at a Big 12 rival for the first time since 2003-04.
The thinking is sound enough, but allow me to add two further points for discussion:
First, things never play out the way we think they will. Right now, for example, no one's talking about the fact that KU also is a game back of West Virginia, because the Mountaineers still have to play a game in Lawrence. But if the past is any guide, it's a safe bet that these circled games -- including KU at OU and WVU at KU -- will be far from the only variables in this mix. Unforeseen losses from contenders are a hallmark of competitive title chases.
Second, if Kansas had to pick a season to try to catch a No. 1-ranked team from behind, this is surely the year to do it. With no disrespect at all to Oklahoma, there are sound eyeball and statistical reasons why you would rather be chasing the 2015-16 Sooners than, say, 2014-15 Kentucky. OU is currently outscoring the Big 12 by 0.08 points per possession. That is an impressive level of performance, but it's not a particularly forbidding profile, all things considered. There's still a good deal of hoops to be played, and in this exceptionally egalitarian season, it's doubtful whether any major-conference race will be a foregone conclusion.
Big 12Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. West Virginia 6-2 70.5 1.03 0.95 +0.08
2. Oklahoma 6-2 71.7 1.12 1.05 +0.07
3. Iowa State 5-3 72.6 1.11 1.05 +0.06
4. Texas 6-3 65.6 1.03 0.99 +0.05
5. Baylor 6-3 65.8 1.11 1.07 +0.04
6. Kansas 5-3 69.8 1.07 1.05 +0.02
7. Kansas State 2-6 67.2 1.02 1.05 -0.03
8. Oklahoma State 2-6 66.1 1.05 1.09 -0.04
9. Texas Tech 2-6 67.9 1.03 1.11 -0.08
10. TCU 1-7 69.0 0.90 1.08 -0.18
Average 68.6 1.05
Big East: The Friars' misses have been numerous and costly
It's not too much to call this the golden age of Providence defense. The Friars have held the Big East to well under a point per trip, and in particular, Ed Cooley's team has been adept at forcing conference opponents to commit turnovers. A large share of the credit there goes to Kris Dunn, of course, as the all-everything point guard has recorded a remarkable 29 steals in the 574 defensive possessions he has logged in Big East play. With a strong defense and two offensive performers of the caliber of Dunn and Ben Bentil, PC still has a shot at reeling in Villanova and Xavier and winning at least a share of the league title.
To do so, however, Cooley's men are going to have to start making some shots. Against Big East opponents, the Friars have connected on just 45 percent of their 2s and 29 percent of their 3s. Only St. John's has been less accurate from the field in conference play than Providence.
Don't blame Dunn, who in fact is faring better from the perimeter than at any time in his career. On the other hand, Bentil and Jalen Lindsey are shooting a combined 19.7 percent on their 3s against conference foes, while Kyron Cartwright and Rodney Bullock have encountered similar challenges inside the arc. If it's important for teams in general to stay away from low-efficiency 2-point jumpers, it is particularly so for the Friars, who as a team connect just 32 percent of the time on such attempts. Better shooting (and, perhaps, improved selection) could make a world of difference for Providence
Big EastTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Villanova 8-1 67.5 1.08 0.94 +0.14
2. Xavier 7-2 71.3 1.09 1.02 +0.07
3. Georgetown 6-3 69.0 1.06 0.99 +0.07
4. Creighton 5-4 69.9 1.05 1.00 +0.05
5. Seton Hall 5-4 73.4 1.02 0.98 +0.04
6. Providence 6-3 71.1 1.00 0.96 +0.04
7. Butler 3-6 66.7 1.03 1.05 -0.02
8. Marquette 4-5 72.7 0.95 1.01 -0.06
9. DePaul 1-8 67.9 0.96 1.11 -0.15
10. St. John's 0-9 76.1 0.87 1.05 -0.18
Average 70.6 1.01
Big Ten: Remember the Wolverines?
Indiana holds on to its per-possession No. 1 ranking for at least another week, and next up for the Hoosiers is a tough road test against Michigan. For a team that's keeping pace in the loss column with Maryland and just a game in back of IU and Iowa, the Wolverines don't seem to have garnered much notice. In part, John Beilein's team is being subjected to the same "Who've they played?" skepticism that has shadowed Indiana to this point in the conference season. Well, the skepticism has some merit: The Wolverines and Hoosiers have indeed played two of the softer Big Ten schedules to this point.
Who knows, maybe the Wolverines can prove their 7-2 record over the first half of the conference season was no accident. If so, it will likely be because this is one of the purest examples of a perimeter-oriented team that the Big Ten has seen in a while. Some 47 percent of Michigan's shot attempts in conference play have come from beyond the arc, the highest such percentage recorded by any league team in the last five seasons. In the absence of the injured Caris LeVert, the trio of Zak Irvin, Derrick Walton Jr. and Aubrey Dawkins has hit 45 percent of its 3s in Big Ten play. That level of accuracy has largely offset Duncan Robinson cooling all the way down (ha!) to 37 percent shooting from beyond the arc against conference opponents. Beware, Hoosiers: Michigan digs the long ball.
A note on "Rutgers effect." It's no secret that Rutgers is struggling this season. So too is Minnesota. But in terms of the statistical effects the two teams are having on the rest of the Big Ten, the Scarlet Knights are on an entirely different -- and not entirely desirable -- stat-warping plane. So, just for the sake of clarity: Indiana, Iowa and Michigan have received little or no statistical benefit from their respective games against Rutgers. Conversely, Michigan State and Maryland have seen their numbers boosted significantly. Lastly, Purdue has particularly benefited statistically from a gargantuan inflation factor, thanks to the Boilermakers' 50-point victory over the Scarlet Knights a couple of weeks ago. As more games are played, the significance of what hoops analysts in white lab coats refer to as "the Rutgers effect" will diminish. Meantime, view these figures accordingly.
Big TenTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Indiana 8-1 69.0 1.14 0.95 +0.19
2. Michigan State 6-4 66.8 1.14 0.99 +0.15
3. Iowa 8-1 69.0 1.15 1.00 +0.15
4. Purdue 7-3 67.7 1.13 1.00 +0.13
5. Maryland 8-2 66.4 1.08 0.96 +0.12
6. Michigan 7-2 66.0 1.13 1.06 +0.07
7. Wisconsin 5-4 63.4 1.04 1.00 +0.04
8. Nebraska 4-5 66.3 1.13 1.11 +0.02
9. Ohio State 6-4 69.1 0.99 0.99 0.00
10. Northwestern 3-7 64.8 0.97 1.08 -0.11
11. Illinois 2-7 68.6 0.96 1.08 -0.12
12. Penn State 2-7 66.1 0.97 1.12 -0.15
13. Minnesota 0-10 67.7 0.94 1.11 -0.17
14.Rutgers 0-9 70.4 0.90 1.25 -0.35
Average 67.2 1.05
Back to (SEC) business for UK
Kentucky has now won three SEC games in a row, and while the overtime loss at Kansas was a heartbreaker, Oklahoma suffered one of those too and seems to have fared pretty well on balance. (Not to mention, John Calipari saw it all coming beforehand. Nice forecasting, Coach!) I trust the Wildcats will be able to move on and address the tasks at hand: Tennessee and Florida, for starters, and eventually the small matter of Texas A&M and its league-leading 7-1 record.
Calipari's team has looked much better on both sides of the ball over its past three conference games. Most notably, this is already the best 2-point defense in SEC play (league opponents are making 42.5 percent of their tries inside the arc) -- a status that looks less surprising with each passing game. On offense, Jamal Murray's turnover rate has dropped dramatically, and Tyler Ulis has rather sensibly responded to an ongoing perimeter slump by shooting 80 percent inside the arc over the past three games.
It's already been a wild ride this season for Kentucky, from No. 1 in the nation at the beginning of December to very nearly falling out of the top 25 entirely just a few weeks later. A history like that one fairly screams "caution" when making evaluative statements, but for what it's worth, here's what the numbers say: Kentucky already has the best offense in SEC play; and on defense, the Wildcats are rapidly gaining ground on pacesetters A&M and Florida. In both 2010-11 and 2013-14, we saw UK teams heavily criticized in January and February for never winning on the road and allegedly lacking in "fire," respectively, only to be celebrated come April. I never say never with this program.
SECTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kentucky 6-2 68.6 1.14 0.97 +0.17
2. Texas A&M 7-1 70.2 1.08 0.91 +0.17
3. Florida 5-3 71.9 1.04 0.96 +0.08
4. LSU 6-2 73.3 1.06 1.02 +0.04
5. South Carolina 6-2 71.3 1.01 0.99 +0.02
6. Arkansas 4-4 71.2 1.06 1.04 +0.02
7. Vanderbilt 4-4 71.7 1.00 0.99 +0.01
8. Tennessee 3-5 73.6 1.04 1.05 -0.01
9. Mississippi State 2-6 70.7 1.04 1.07 -0.03
10. Georgia 4-4 70.7 0.97 1.01 -0.04
11. Ole Miss 3-5 69.4 1.05 1.09 -0.04
12.Alabama 2-6 68.1 0.99 1.03 -0.04
13.Auburn 3-5 71.5 0.97 1.11 -0.14
14.Missouri 1-7 68.4 0.90 1.10 -0.20
Average 70.8 1.02
American: Time to feast our eyes on the Huskies and Bearcats
It was fun watching SMU try to run the table, but as February dawns, two realizations come to the fore with respect to the American:
First, UConn and Cincinnati would be in pretty good shape to make the NCAA tournament if the season ended today.
Second, no other team in the league can make that claim -- due in part, of course, to the postseason ban imposed on the Mustangs by the NCAA.
Coincidentally, the Huskies and Bearcats faced off in Hartford, Connecticut, last week, and Mick Cronin's Cincinnati team emerged with what the coach termed a "signature win." On a night when Rodney Purvis and Daniel Hamilton shot a combined 7-of-28 from the field for UConn, Cincinnati forced just enough misses to come away with the 58-57 win. Speaking of forcing misses, Gary Clark and Jacob Evans combined for seven blocks for the Bearcats.
AmericanTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. SMU 8-2 65.5 1.14 1.00 +0.14
2. Connecticut 5-3 65.6 0.97 0.87 +0.10
3. Cincinnati 6-3 64.3 1.05 0.97 +0.08
4. Houston 6-4 63.9 1.09 1.03 +0.06
5. Tulsa 6-3 67.1 1.01 0.96 +0.05
6. Memphis 4-4 72.4 1.06 1.02 +0.04
7. Temple 6-3 65.1 1.03 1.00 +0.03
8. UCF 4-4 68.7 1.01 1.05 -0.04
9. USF 2-8 64.9 0.97 1.05 -0.08
10. East Carolina 2-7 67.2 0.97 1.12 -0.15
11. Tulane 1-9 67.5 0.88 1.06 -0.18
Average 66.6 1.01
It was entirely appropriate that these two teams combined for just 115 points in a 65-possession game, for these are two sturdy defenses. Kevin Ollie's UConn guys came up short this time, but when the brackets are announced, you don't want to be paired with a Huskies defense that's holding its conference opponents to 0.87 points per trip. The American's tournament representation may not be vast, but chances are it will be defensively accomplished.
In Oregon's 91-74 win at Arizona State, Boucher scored 26 points (including 4-of-8 shooting on his 3s) to go along with 10 rebounds and seven blocks. The junior college transfer is only in his fourth season of organized basketball, and his physique type is often classed as "string bean," but in terms of the senior's impact on opposing teams, he is not to be taken lightly. While we're on that subject, the Ducks would be well advised not to take their next two opponents lightly: Colorado and Utah have combined to win eight games in a row, and the Utes, in particular, appear to have finally shaken off their weird "Where's Delon?" funk. Altman's men had better be ready.
Pac-12Team W-L Pace PPP OPPP EM
1.Arizona 5-4 68.7 1.18 1.05 +0.13
2.Oregon 7-2 68.9 1.14 1.04 +0.10
3.Utah 6-3 65.5 1.05 1.00 +0.05
4. USC 6-3 75.6 1.09 1.04 +0.05
5. Colorado 6-3 69.7 1.04 1.00 +0.04
6. UCLA 4-5 73.1 1.09 1.08 +0.01
7. California 4-5 68.0 1.04 1.03 +0.01
8. Washington 6-3 77.2 1.07 1.10 -0.03
9. Arizona State 2-7 72.4 1.06 1.11 -0.05
10. Oregon State 3-6 68.1 1.00 1.07 -0.07
11. Stanford 4-5 68.1 1.00 1.08 -0.08
12. Washington State 1-8 72.9 0.99 1.16 -0.17
Average 70.7 1.06
ACC: Crunch time for the Hurricanes
Miami has rebounded impressively and unmistakably from a 13-loss 2014-15 that ended in the NIT finals. The Hurricanes enter February at 16-4 and, more important, Jim Larranaga's team is showing up in the mock brackets as a No. 4 or even a No. 3 seed. On the surface, it's all going according to plan in Coral Gables.
And that surface appearance may well turn out to be correct. Based on the 531 possessions that the Canes have played against ACC competition to date, however, it does seem likely that Miami will need to step up its level of play to merit the seeds it's earning right now in the mocks. It's not just the team's No. 6 ranking in the conference's per-possession standings, it's the fact that Larranaga's men have posted that scoring margin while playing the league's No. 11-ranked strength of schedule. Of course, this being the ACC, the Canes will now have every opportunity to walk the No. 3 seed walk. The remaining schedule includes two games against Notre Dame, a rematch against Virginia and one game apiece against North Carolina and Louisville.
Sheldon McClellan and Angel Rodriguez have excelled all season long from 2-point land, but they've been unable to extend their early-season 3-point success in conference play. Together they're shooting a combined 24 percent from beyond the arc against ACC defenses, and that's a big reason why in ACC play this has been the league's No. 12-ranked offense. Still, if those looks start falling again, look out: McClellan, in particular, has been unstoppable inside the 3-point line, and at home the Miami defense has held the ACC to just 0.89 points per possession. A challenging back half of the schedule awaits, and with some help on the perimeter, the Hurricanes can prove they're up to the task.
ACCTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. North Carolina 8-1 73.4 1.11 0.96 +0.15
2. Notre Dame 6-3 65.6 1.20 1.10 +0.10
3. Duke 4-4 66.7 1.17 1.08 +0.09
4. Louisville 7-2 67.2 1.04 0.96 +0.08
5. Virginia 6-3 61.9 1.11 1.03 +0.08
6. Miami 5-3 66.4 1.04 0.99 +0.05
7. Syracuse 5-5 62.7 1.06 1.02 +0.04
8. Pittsburgh 6-3 65.9 1.11 1.08 +0.03
9. Clemson 6-3 64.8 1.08 1.06 +0.02
10. Florida State 5-5 71.7 1.04 1.06 -0.02
11. NC State 2-8 68.1 1.08 1.11 -0.03
12. Georgia Tech 2-6 69.2 1.06 1.10 -0.04
13. Virginia Tech 4-5 70.4 1.06 1.13 -0.07
14. Wake Forest 1-8 70.1 0.98 1.15 -0.17
15. Boston College 0-8 67.9 0.82 1.13 -0.31
Average 67.5 1.06
Big 12: Why the Jayhawks' long odds could be even worse than they are
You may be aware of the fact that Kansas has won at least a share of a rather remarkable 11 consecutive Big 12 regular-season titles. Now, however, the streak appears to be in serious jeopardy. The Jayhawks are a game back of No. 1-ranked Oklahoma and, even worse, that's with the home game against the Sooners already having been played. (It was rather memorable.) KU will visit Norman for the return date on Feb. 13; absent a win there, the thinking goes, Kansas might finish the regular season looking up at a Big 12 rival for the first time since 2003-04.
The thinking is sound enough, but allow me to add two further points for discussion:
First, things never play out the way we think they will. Right now, for example, no one's talking about the fact that KU also is a game back of West Virginia, because the Mountaineers still have to play a game in Lawrence. But if the past is any guide, it's a safe bet that these circled games -- including KU at OU and WVU at KU -- will be far from the only variables in this mix. Unforeseen losses from contenders are a hallmark of competitive title chases.
Second, if Kansas had to pick a season to try to catch a No. 1-ranked team from behind, this is surely the year to do it. With no disrespect at all to Oklahoma, there are sound eyeball and statistical reasons why you would rather be chasing the 2015-16 Sooners than, say, 2014-15 Kentucky. OU is currently outscoring the Big 12 by 0.08 points per possession. That is an impressive level of performance, but it's not a particularly forbidding profile, all things considered. There's still a good deal of hoops to be played, and in this exceptionally egalitarian season, it's doubtful whether any major-conference race will be a foregone conclusion.
Big 12Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. West Virginia 6-2 70.5 1.03 0.95 +0.08
2. Oklahoma 6-2 71.7 1.12 1.05 +0.07
3. Iowa State 5-3 72.6 1.11 1.05 +0.06
4. Texas 6-3 65.6 1.03 0.99 +0.05
5. Baylor 6-3 65.8 1.11 1.07 +0.04
6. Kansas 5-3 69.8 1.07 1.05 +0.02
7. Kansas State 2-6 67.2 1.02 1.05 -0.03
8. Oklahoma State 2-6 66.1 1.05 1.09 -0.04
9. Texas Tech 2-6 67.9 1.03 1.11 -0.08
10. TCU 1-7 69.0 0.90 1.08 -0.18
Average 68.6 1.05
Big East: The Friars' misses have been numerous and costly
It's not too much to call this the golden age of Providence defense. The Friars have held the Big East to well under a point per trip, and in particular, Ed Cooley's team has been adept at forcing conference opponents to commit turnovers. A large share of the credit there goes to Kris Dunn, of course, as the all-everything point guard has recorded a remarkable 29 steals in the 574 defensive possessions he has logged in Big East play. With a strong defense and two offensive performers of the caliber of Dunn and Ben Bentil, PC still has a shot at reeling in Villanova and Xavier and winning at least a share of the league title.
To do so, however, Cooley's men are going to have to start making some shots. Against Big East opponents, the Friars have connected on just 45 percent of their 2s and 29 percent of their 3s. Only St. John's has been less accurate from the field in conference play than Providence.
Don't blame Dunn, who in fact is faring better from the perimeter than at any time in his career. On the other hand, Bentil and Jalen Lindsey are shooting a combined 19.7 percent on their 3s against conference foes, while Kyron Cartwright and Rodney Bullock have encountered similar challenges inside the arc. If it's important for teams in general to stay away from low-efficiency 2-point jumpers, it is particularly so for the Friars, who as a team connect just 32 percent of the time on such attempts. Better shooting (and, perhaps, improved selection) could make a world of difference for Providence
Big EastTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Villanova 8-1 67.5 1.08 0.94 +0.14
2. Xavier 7-2 71.3 1.09 1.02 +0.07
3. Georgetown 6-3 69.0 1.06 0.99 +0.07
4. Creighton 5-4 69.9 1.05 1.00 +0.05
5. Seton Hall 5-4 73.4 1.02 0.98 +0.04
6. Providence 6-3 71.1 1.00 0.96 +0.04
7. Butler 3-6 66.7 1.03 1.05 -0.02
8. Marquette 4-5 72.7 0.95 1.01 -0.06
9. DePaul 1-8 67.9 0.96 1.11 -0.15
10. St. John's 0-9 76.1 0.87 1.05 -0.18
Average 70.6 1.01
Big Ten: Remember the Wolverines?
Indiana holds on to its per-possession No. 1 ranking for at least another week, and next up for the Hoosiers is a tough road test against Michigan. For a team that's keeping pace in the loss column with Maryland and just a game in back of IU and Iowa, the Wolverines don't seem to have garnered much notice. In part, John Beilein's team is being subjected to the same "Who've they played?" skepticism that has shadowed Indiana to this point in the conference season. Well, the skepticism has some merit: The Wolverines and Hoosiers have indeed played two of the softer Big Ten schedules to this point.
Who knows, maybe the Wolverines can prove their 7-2 record over the first half of the conference season was no accident. If so, it will likely be because this is one of the purest examples of a perimeter-oriented team that the Big Ten has seen in a while. Some 47 percent of Michigan's shot attempts in conference play have come from beyond the arc, the highest such percentage recorded by any league team in the last five seasons. In the absence of the injured Caris LeVert, the trio of Zak Irvin, Derrick Walton Jr. and Aubrey Dawkins has hit 45 percent of its 3s in Big Ten play. That level of accuracy has largely offset Duncan Robinson cooling all the way down (ha!) to 37 percent shooting from beyond the arc against conference opponents. Beware, Hoosiers: Michigan digs the long ball.
A note on "Rutgers effect." It's no secret that Rutgers is struggling this season. So too is Minnesota. But in terms of the statistical effects the two teams are having on the rest of the Big Ten, the Scarlet Knights are on an entirely different -- and not entirely desirable -- stat-warping plane. So, just for the sake of clarity: Indiana, Iowa and Michigan have received little or no statistical benefit from their respective games against Rutgers. Conversely, Michigan State and Maryland have seen their numbers boosted significantly. Lastly, Purdue has particularly benefited statistically from a gargantuan inflation factor, thanks to the Boilermakers' 50-point victory over the Scarlet Knights a couple of weeks ago. As more games are played, the significance of what hoops analysts in white lab coats refer to as "the Rutgers effect" will diminish. Meantime, view these figures accordingly.
Big TenTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Indiana 8-1 69.0 1.14 0.95 +0.19
2. Michigan State 6-4 66.8 1.14 0.99 +0.15
3. Iowa 8-1 69.0 1.15 1.00 +0.15
4. Purdue 7-3 67.7 1.13 1.00 +0.13
5. Maryland 8-2 66.4 1.08 0.96 +0.12
6. Michigan 7-2 66.0 1.13 1.06 +0.07
7. Wisconsin 5-4 63.4 1.04 1.00 +0.04
8. Nebraska 4-5 66.3 1.13 1.11 +0.02
9. Ohio State 6-4 69.1 0.99 0.99 0.00
10. Northwestern 3-7 64.8 0.97 1.08 -0.11
11. Illinois 2-7 68.6 0.96 1.08 -0.12
12. Penn State 2-7 66.1 0.97 1.12 -0.15
13. Minnesota 0-10 67.7 0.94 1.11 -0.17
14.Rutgers 0-9 70.4 0.90 1.25 -0.35
Average 67.2 1.05
Back to (SEC) business for UK
Kentucky has now won three SEC games in a row, and while the overtime loss at Kansas was a heartbreaker, Oklahoma suffered one of those too and seems to have fared pretty well on balance. (Not to mention, John Calipari saw it all coming beforehand. Nice forecasting, Coach!) I trust the Wildcats will be able to move on and address the tasks at hand: Tennessee and Florida, for starters, and eventually the small matter of Texas A&M and its league-leading 7-1 record.
Calipari's team has looked much better on both sides of the ball over its past three conference games. Most notably, this is already the best 2-point defense in SEC play (league opponents are making 42.5 percent of their tries inside the arc) -- a status that looks less surprising with each passing game. On offense, Jamal Murray's turnover rate has dropped dramatically, and Tyler Ulis has rather sensibly responded to an ongoing perimeter slump by shooting 80 percent inside the arc over the past three games.
It's already been a wild ride this season for Kentucky, from No. 1 in the nation at the beginning of December to very nearly falling out of the top 25 entirely just a few weeks later. A history like that one fairly screams "caution" when making evaluative statements, but for what it's worth, here's what the numbers say: Kentucky already has the best offense in SEC play; and on defense, the Wildcats are rapidly gaining ground on pacesetters A&M and Florida. In both 2010-11 and 2013-14, we saw UK teams heavily criticized in January and February for never winning on the road and allegedly lacking in "fire," respectively, only to be celebrated come April. I never say never with this program.
SECTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kentucky 6-2 68.6 1.14 0.97 +0.17
2. Texas A&M 7-1 70.2 1.08 0.91 +0.17
3. Florida 5-3 71.9 1.04 0.96 +0.08
4. LSU 6-2 73.3 1.06 1.02 +0.04
5. South Carolina 6-2 71.3 1.01 0.99 +0.02
6. Arkansas 4-4 71.2 1.06 1.04 +0.02
7. Vanderbilt 4-4 71.7 1.00 0.99 +0.01
8. Tennessee 3-5 73.6 1.04 1.05 -0.01
9. Mississippi State 2-6 70.7 1.04 1.07 -0.03
10. Georgia 4-4 70.7 0.97 1.01 -0.04
11. Ole Miss 3-5 69.4 1.05 1.09 -0.04
12.Alabama 2-6 68.1 0.99 1.03 -0.04
13.Auburn 3-5 71.5 0.97 1.11 -0.14
14.Missouri 1-7 68.4 0.90 1.10 -0.20
Average 70.8 1.02
American: Time to feast our eyes on the Huskies and Bearcats
It was fun watching SMU try to run the table, but as February dawns, two realizations come to the fore with respect to the American:
First, UConn and Cincinnati would be in pretty good shape to make the NCAA tournament if the season ended today.
Second, no other team in the league can make that claim -- due in part, of course, to the postseason ban imposed on the Mustangs by the NCAA.
Coincidentally, the Huskies and Bearcats faced off in Hartford, Connecticut, last week, and Mick Cronin's Cincinnati team emerged with what the coach termed a "signature win." On a night when Rodney Purvis and Daniel Hamilton shot a combined 7-of-28 from the field for UConn, Cincinnati forced just enough misses to come away with the 58-57 win. Speaking of forcing misses, Gary Clark and Jacob Evans combined for seven blocks for the Bearcats.
AmericanTeam W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. SMU 8-2 65.5 1.14 1.00 +0.14
2. Connecticut 5-3 65.6 0.97 0.87 +0.10
3. Cincinnati 6-3 64.3 1.05 0.97 +0.08
4. Houston 6-4 63.9 1.09 1.03 +0.06
5. Tulsa 6-3 67.1 1.01 0.96 +0.05
6. Memphis 4-4 72.4 1.06 1.02 +0.04
7. Temple 6-3 65.1 1.03 1.00 +0.03
8. UCF 4-4 68.7 1.01 1.05 -0.04
9. USF 2-8 64.9 0.97 1.05 -0.08
10. East Carolina 2-7 67.2 0.97 1.12 -0.15
11. Tulane 1-9 67.5 0.88 1.06 -0.18
Average 66.6 1.01
It was entirely appropriate that these two teams combined for just 115 points in a 65-possession game, for these are two sturdy defenses. Kevin Ollie's UConn guys came up short this time, but when the brackets are announced, you don't want to be paired with a Huskies defense that's holding its conference opponents to 0.87 points per trip. The American's tournament representation may not be vast, but chances are it will be defensively accomplished.
I'm a nice guy, but you pushing it.
Especially with that garbage joe lunardi article. im not posting don't worry, you arne't missing anything.
I'm paying it forward from the god @Proshares doing gods work in MLB thread,
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Lmaooo @ title change
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If I get banned becuase of y'all I'm going to be heated. 
you guys know the chicanery I had to pull of to get this insder for 5 bucks?
you guys know the chicanery I had to pull of to get this insder for 5 bucks?
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JAYxSF415
formerly chillainvillain
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jpzx
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I'm happy to say I'm completely unsure of Hield, but glad that his team is going to play enough games in the tournament where we'll see him against an array of quality perimeter defenders throughout that stretch that he's never played against.
Been catching a few Providence games lately... I'm not sure about Kris Dunn as a shooter entirely, but I couldn't take my eyes off of him when he would attack the basket from either wing side and esp. at the top of the key. His ability to dance through the lane and use his two steps to their maximum value after picking up his dribble appears special to me. Seemed to be getting his hand in passing lanes on the defensive end too, so at least he's being active which can be extrapolated and improved upon at the next level with the right coaching staff.
Been catching a few Providence games lately... I'm not sure about Kris Dunn as a shooter entirely, but I couldn't take my eyes off of him when he would attack the basket from either wing side and esp. at the top of the key. His ability to dance through the lane and use his two steps to their maximum value after picking up his dribble appears special to me. Seemed to be getting his hand in passing lanes on the defensive end too, so at least he's being active which can be extrapolated and improved upon at the next level with the right coaching staff.
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I really hate to do this, but watching Dunn out there, from a physical build and movement standpoint he kind of reminds me of Dwyane Wade. NO WHERE AM I SAYING HE PLAYS LIKE HIM NOR WILL BE AS GOOD AS HIM.
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I've thought this as well. Very similar.
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Yep been saying this for awhile.
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That's exactly what I was thinking
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I don't know if I should feel more reassured or if I'm being trolled right now.
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Definitely some things about his game that are reminiscent of Wade. I just never wanted to make the comparison on here
T0INE
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Watching more of Dunn, I see where the Wall comparisons come from. He's definitely nowhere near as athletic, but the way he operates, his ball handling and drives are a little reminiscent of Wall's style. Defensively, it seems like he has exceptional length and plays the passing lane like Wade does. I can see a bit of Wade as well
In this weak draft I'd take him pretty darn high though and hope he has a high floor too
In this weak draft I'd take him pretty darn high though and hope he has a high floor too
jpzx
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View media item 1900349
I don't think he has near the array of moves that D-Wade had at Marquette but their movement and ability to bait defenders into leaning is on par.
I don't think he has near the array of moves that D-Wade had at Marquette but their movement and ability to bait defenders into leaning is on par.
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really wish we had our pick this year 
would've liked Diamond Stone
would've liked Diamond Stone
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Potential to be a very good offensive player. Not as good as Okaor, but probably a better defender....really wish we had our pick this year
would've liked Diamond Stone
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jpzx
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I had watched a DX video of Furkan Korkmaz last year. Cub scout's now a grown *** man.
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**** it, I'll take my chances with Buddy as a top 10 pick
