2012 Official NFL Fantasy Football Thread

I think this year is more wide open and uncertain then ever before. For the first time in a very long time the Quarterback position has a TON of elite arms and stat stuffers. Usually if you don't have a top 5 QB, you are scrambling and worried.

- I hate the RB position this year, after the top 3 of Rice, Foster and McCoy you may as well close your eyes and throw a dart. I'm seeing people try and make cases for bums like Ryan Matthews being a first round pick. I think he sucks, and doesn't have what it takes to be a NFL producer. SD is going to try and glue together their season with Rivers, and he lost his #1 target in Jackson. Now Gates says he's the most healthy he has been in year, yea right. If SD tries to win this year by running Matthews, they won't win more than 7 games. Only guys I'm targeting outside of the top 3 I mentioned are probably Richardson, and Doug Martin.

- There has never been such discrepancy in WR's after about the 5th-8th. WR everyone is saying is deep, while it might be the amount of talent drops off a cliff after about 8. Guys like Percy Harvin, Colston and Bowe are going to be relied upon hoping to have bounce back years. I'm not excited about breaking down WR's this is going to be an issue.

- Tight Ends this year will be interesting to see play out. Fleener, Davis, Tamme, Cook could all have monster seasons and end up with similar seasons to Graham and Gronk last year. If you look at the offenses they play on - it's all about questionable and comfortability based QB's. Fleener has his rookie college QB, Davis rookie QB, Tamme has a guy who hasn't played in 18 months, Jared Cook has no weapons around him to catch the ball once Britt gets suspended.

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I play in a 10 team, start 2 QB and start 2 defenses league. I'm going QB in the first round no matter what. I may even go QB in round 2 because of how important our passing is. That's how you win this league. Taking a defense early is normally frowned upon but in this league it garners tons of points. The only issue I have is taking a Qb in 2 straight rounds will kill me at the RB position. Very excited for the season but tons of worry and skepticism. Have we ever seen a year with so many injury concerns?
 
QB or RB first round?

If the opportunity presented itself... I really want Lesean, but is it worth it in the long term to have a QB backpack your team? Do yall think Staff will still be there in the 2nd round?
 
Here's my thing if you top 5 in the draft gotta grab brees or Rodgers top tier QBs if they are gone by then go RB
 
QB vs RB in the first round.....

Here's a list of scoring leaders from 2011...(top 25 from ESPN standard scoring leagues).

1. Aaron Rodgers (385 points)
2. Drew Brees (380)
3. Tom Brady (352)
4. Cam Newton (352)
5. Matt Stafford (333)
6. Ray Rice (283)
7. Eli Manning (273)
8. LeSean McCoy (270)
9. Tony Romo (265)
10. Matt Ryan (260)
11. Calvin Johnson (254)
12. MJD (249)
13. Phillip Rivers (246)
14. Arian Foster (238)
15. Rob Gronkowski (233)
16. Mark Sanchez (227)
17. Mike Vick (222)
18. Jordy Nelson (210)
19. Ryan Fitzpatrick (207)
20. Ben Roethlisberger (206)
21. Wes Welker (206)
22. Michael Turner (203)
23. Marshawn Lynch (203)
24. Alex Smith (201)
25. Victor Cruz (198)

Since I'm in a league with other NTers I'll have to be selective now about my input in this thread (conflict of interest). I'll say this however, look at the list i put up. Notice something? How many QBs are capable of top 20 fantasy numbers (sure theres a rather large gap between Rodgers and say...Phillip Rivers). But the point is that you can get a top-scoring QB by waiting...

See? Now I've said too much. You guys work draft strategy out yourselves lol. I'll continue with the news blurbs.

You think the drop-off from the top tier QBs is drastic? Notice the drop off after the top 3-5 RBs. G'luck getting a viable RB1 after round 2.


P.S. Non-league members, if you need some advice concerning draft strategy, hit my inbox. I really can't be airing out my ideas like that in here anymore.
 
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I'll start taking names for a 12-team dynasty ESPN league, dedicated fantasy owners. Hit me up, when I get 12 names I'll create the league and set the draft date. Inbox me with your ESPN Screen names and a valid e-mail address.

League will be standard scoring (non-ppr).

2 keeper. QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K. 7 bench slots.

I'll consider implementing a buy-in if people want a money-league. For now testing the waters to see if people could remain dedicated to a dynasty league without financial incentive.
 
Evan Silva

Football Daily Dose

Jumping off the Page

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Evan Silva highlights the ten hottest skill-position players around NFL training camps.


As of Monday evening, every NFL team had commenced training camp practices. Things really picked up over the weekend, though, with a number of intriguing depth chart developments and on-field performances that you might have missed.

So here's a refresher on the top-ten skill-position players generating league-wide buzz while making a run up fantasy football rankings.

Editor's Note: Speaking of fantasy rankings, ours are accessible here.

1. Bucs running back Doug Martin

The Money Quote: "It doesn't take an expert to see that rookie running back Doug Martin looks -- at least for now -- like the Bucs' primary running back." -- Tampa Bay Times.

Our post-draft intuition told us rookie coach Greg Schiano didn't trade up into the first round for LeGarrette Blount's change-of-pace back, and the depth chart to open training camp confirmed that Martin is the Bucs' new starter. Martin has impressed observers with his short-area burst and lateral open-field elusiveness while dominating first-team and passing-drill reps. According to Pewter Report, Blount "split time in a backup role and received fewer reps than Martin" during Sunday's training camp practice, "and just slightly more than Mossis Madu and Michael Smith."

Pewter Report went so far as to suggest Blount is already being "disciplined" by Schiano's hard-line coaching staff. The incumbent was the last back in line during Sunday's drills.

Assuming he doesn't suddenly tank in camp or preseason games, the polished, versatile Martin will offer an impressively high fantasy "floor." At the very worst, he'd share early-down work with Blount and handle all passing downs. Playing behind the NFL's highest-paid offensive line in a power-based, run-first offense, Martin will be an every-week RB2 to open the season. His ADP currently at the top of round four, don't be surprised if Martin is a second-rounder by late August.

2. Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb

The Money Quote: "Judging by Cobb’s eye-catching start in training camp this year, it will be impossible to keep him off the field in Year 2. ... Through three days of practice, he’s made more big plays and been used in a greater variety of ways than any of their other receivers." -- Green Bay Press-Gazette.

"What's not to like about him?" said CB Tramon Williams. "Versatility. Can do everything. I think there's going to be a lot of opportunity for him." Chimed in the Press-Gazette's Pete Dougherty, "there's every reason to think he'll be (the Packers') No. 1 slot receiver this year."

"Opportunity" is the buzz word as Cobb seeks to carve out a consistent role in a receiving group that already features Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, and Jermichael Finley, with James Jones and Donald Driver behind them. It's important to remember that one of Green Bay's primary methods of greatness is a refusal to let declining players "block" budding young stars. GM Ted Thompson has been willing to move on a year too early, if need be. (See Brett Favre, Cullen Jenkins, Aaron Kampman, Nick Barnett, Al Harris, and the list goes on.) If Cobb earns the snaps, he'll get them.

3. Patriots running back Stevan Ridley

The Money Quote: "WHO'S HOT: Stevan Ridley continues to look fast and decisive and really comfortable in the offense." -- Comcast SportsNet New England.

In an ESPN Boston item entitled "Ridley in position for top role," trusty beat reporter Mike Reiss noted that the second-year back out of LSU has "often" been first in line in running back drills, occupying the driver's seat for BenJarvus Green-Ellis' old lead rushing role. WEEI Boston confirmed Ridley "has been the primary back used with the first team," with Danny Woodhead as the change of pace and Shane Vereen just trying to hold off UDFA Brandon Bolden. On more than one occasion, we've seen it written that Ridley is "working with the Brady group."

In June, I charted and wrote up Ridley's two highest rookie-year workloads, and found him to be a violent, natural inside-the-tackles runner.. Ridley is going to replace Green-Ellis, and then some.

While "Law Firm" excelled with ball security and short-yardage efficiency, Ridley possesses more big-play ability and speed to get the corner than his predecessor. And he's just as tough to tackle. BJGE was an annual double-digit TD scorer for New England. Ridley's weekly consistency may be similarly specious, but he will average more yards per carry and stands to score just as much.

4. Broncos wide receiver Eric Decker

The Money Quote: "Too bad for Peyton Manning and Eric Decker the regular season is still six weeks away. The quarterback and receiver are working together like they were ready yesterday." -- Denver Post.

Chris Wesseling nailed this before camp even started. Decker's route-running chops have made him Manning's favorite practice target, ahead of more highly touted Demaryius Thomas. Per beat writer Mike Klis, Manning "appears to be in sync with Decker" but "could use more time" with Thomas. Time and practice reps are on Thomas' side, but Decker looks like the safer fantasy pick -- particularly in PPR leagues -- for the time being. Thomas probably still offers the most upside.

Keep in mind that Manning's timing with his receivers has always been of an utmost importance. It's why he used to prefer Austin Collie to Pierre Garcon. It's why he loved Brandon Stokley. Those guys were always in the right place at the right time. Decker seems like he'll be one of those guys.

5. Patriots wide receiver Brandon Lloyd

The Money Quote: "Some might say there have been shades of 2007's offensive fireworks on the practice fields. ... (Lloyd) looks like he's been playing with quarterback Tom Brady for a decade." -- ESPN Boston.

Lloyd shredded non-contact OTAs and minicamps, and his head-turning performances filled with highlight-reel receptions have translated to the live practice field. Brady confirmed that Lloyd has a stranglehold on New England's offense, seeing as he spent two and a half of the past three years in Josh McDaniels' system. Fantasy fanatics concerned with "mouths to feed" should fear not. McDaniels will run a more vertical-oriented attack than outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's, and Lloyd is the Patriots' new vertical weapon. He's also McDaniels' boy. McD will scheme to get Lloyd the rock.

Plus, pass attempts haven't been an issue in Foxboro for several years. This organization believes in throwing the football, and pass targets will be aplenty. Lloyd offers mini-Moss '07 upside at the reasonable ADP cost of a fifth-round fantasy pick.


6. Lions running back Kevin Smith

The Money Quote: "We have a lot of confidence in him. He's made a lot of plays for us. If he's out there, we know he can make plays." -- Lions head coach Jim Schwartz.

Smith's durability will be a concern until he proves capable of staying healthy for an extended stretch, but at the moment he's the only healthy, decent back in Lions training camp. And, for now at least, that counts for something. Mikel Leshoure can't shake the lingering effects of his 2011 Achilles' tendon tear, and Jahvid Best (concussion) can't get clearance to resume playing ball.

There are three Detroit media outlets that closely follow the Lions. They've all called Smith the favorite to start in Week 1. Here's the Detroit News calling Smith the "frontrunner" to start on Opening Day. And MLive.com deeming Smith "likely" to break camp as the Lions' starter. Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press tweeted Sunday that Smith should be "the guy ... if you (have) got a fantasy draft today."

And ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert is on board, too.

Smith's Average Draft Position is rising. It was the 13th round over the weekend, and is already up to the latter portion of the 11th. Consider Smith a fantasy value pick anywhere in the double digits.

7. Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph

The Money Quote: "Kyle Rudolph was pretty much option Nos. 1, 3 and 5 today. Looked more athletic than last year, when slowed by the hamstring injury. Getting downfield a little faster now. Smooth coming out of breaks." -- Friday's St. Paul Pioneer Press.

The tight end position looks shallow and top heavy in fantasy this season. Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are clearly the cream of the crop. They tilt weekly scoring because they produce so much more than everyone else. Behind Graham and Gronk, Antonio Gates, Aaron Hernandez, Vernon Davis, and Jermichael Finley can keep you competitive. Then, there's a drop off. Fred Davis, Jason Witten, Jacob Tamme, and Tony Gonzalez are nice names, but you're at a weekly disadvantage if one of them is your starter, and you're going against Graham or Gronkowski. Behind those ten tight ends, the likes of Dustin Keller, Brent Celek, and Jared Cook are not TE1s. Brandon Pettigrew is a borderline starter in PPR leagues. He is a poor option in standard scoring.

Rudolph's ADP is undrafted, and he has the potential to be Minnesota's No. 2 pass option, behind Percy Harvin. If early camp is any indication, Vikings OC Bill Musgrave will use Rudolph all over the formation, creating mismatches as a catch-first weapon. Rudolph also blocks well enough to be an every-down player. If Christian Ponder makes second-year strides, it's not crazy to think Rudolph could push for third-tier tight end statistics in the range of Witten, Tamme, and Gonzo.

8. Rams running back Steven Jackson

The Money Quote: "Yeah. I actually see him being a backup. If it's the way I want it ... I will continue to be the workhorse. He can relieve me at times during the game, or when we need a change of pace against the defense. ... I'm looking at 25 to 30, plus touches a game." -- Jackson on PFT Live, discussing Rams second-round pick Isaiah Pead.

Just as Jackson reported to camp, he tweeted that he's down to 234.8 pounds and 5.1 percent body fat. Entering his age-29 season as the NFL's active leader in rushing attempts, Jackson shed 10 pounds from last year, intent on maintaining his every-down back role. S-Jax dropped the weight by removing eggs, salmon, broccoli, pork, vanilla, and guacamole from his diet. "My energy feels up," Jackson says. "I feel alive."

The Rams began practices on Sunday, and camp observer Mike Sando -- ESPN's NFC West blogger -- noted that Jackson's "quickness was apparent" on the first day of drills. "We should expect the Rams to continue feeding Jackson at a high rate," Sando wrote, days earlier. "... I would think Jackson, with two seasons remaining on his contract, should be able to carry a heavy load in 2012."

New Rams coach Jeff Fisher has never been afraid to overwork running backs, regardless of age. He did it most recently with Chris Johnson. Before that, Eddie George. And George gives us a bit of a datapoint. In his own age-29 campaign with Fisher as head coach, George ran the football 343 times and caught 36 passes. He scored 14 touchdowns.

9. Titans quarterback Jake Locker

The Money Quote: "Both quarterbacks looked sharp tonight, but I was really impressed with Jake Locker, who finished 10-of-14 in team drills. Showed poise and zip on (the) ball." -- Jim Wyatt of the Nashville Tennessean.

The Titans didn't hold their first media-access practice until Sunday night. It was Locker earning high marks out of the gate by outperforming Matt Hasselbeck in drills. While Hasselbeck and Locker will split practice reps down the middle all camp, Locker's performance appeared to earn him the first-team nod on Monday. Locker began the second open practice as the Titans' starter.

Through two practices conducted with media members allowed, Locker has completed 17 of his 25 pass attempts on the first-team offense. Hasselbeck is 11-of-22 with a pair of interceptions. Training camp passing stats are essentially worthless, but they do reflect that Locker is throwing the football well. We already knew he was a big-time athlete with unwavering pocket presence and a rocket arm.

Coach Mike Munchak plans to name a starter before the third preseason game (Aug. 23). While spring speculation almost universally sided with Hasselbeck, the talent differential between the upstart youngster and in-decline veteran is tremendous. I am convinced that Locker will be given every opportunity to play on Opening Day. And his hot start to camp can only help his chances.

10. Chargers tight end Antonio Gates

The Money Quote: "Antonio Gates running with no limp after a 2011 season spent with constant foot pain, and smiling almost every time he took his helmet off, and saying afterward, I appreciate my health so much now that I've got it back.'" -- MMQB.

Camp reports from SI's Peter King, the Union-Tribune San Diego, and the North County Times have all indicated Gates is as "healthy as ever" and has overcome his 2010-2011 feet problems. Battling a plantar fascia tear, Gates missed nine games over those two seasons and was often ineffective when he was in the lineup. But I am buying the notion that Gates is past that.

I saw it with my own eyes.

During my offseason re-watching of Darrius Heyward-Bey's 2011 games, the Chargers' Week 17 matchup with the Raiders stood out. Gates was nothing short of terrific. He moved as fluidly as ever and didn't favor the foot. He was healthy then, and he's healthy now. Gates' rear end is as big as ever, but that might help him, boxing out linebackers and safeties like a power forward.

Gates will be Philip Rivers' No. 1 pass option this year, and I think he will score enough to rank third among fantasy tight ends, behind Graham and Gronk. I'd draft Gates early in the fifth round.

Honorable Mentions: Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson, Browns receiver Josh Gordon, Steelers receiver Emmanuel Sanders, Cardinals running back Ryan Williams, Saints receiver Adrian Arrington, Bears receiver Alshon Jeffery, Jets running back Bilal Powell, Seahawks receiver Golden Tate, ******** receiver Leonard Hankerson, Chiefs receiver Jonathan Baldwin.


Interesting read for those wondering who has been performing well in training camps.
 
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Bear Claw, fantasy football is shifting to a passing (QB-dominant) sport/league much like real NFL football. Based on the top-15 or so (Yahoo or ESPN), QBs litter the top cumulative fantasy points earners over a season. Two QB leagues forces an easy decision, you almost have to go QB first-round. For standard one QB leagues, I'm only truly considering Rodgers or Brady with a top-5 selection. I'm a firm believer Brees will have a "down year" without Payton on the sidelines. Still #7 overall on my fantasy board because of NO's pass-happy offense. Cam and Stafford come right after that in the "second-tier" of QBs. However, I do like the significant value Peyton Manning and Phil Rivers present later in the draft (near 60th overall).

I'm also leaning towards Rice #1 overall over Foster. Tate steals carries and Arian has slight injury concerns.
 
bearclawd said:
QB or RB first round?
If the opportunity presented itself... I really want Lesean, but is it worth it in the long term to have a QB backpack your team? Do yall think Staff will still be there in the 2nd round?
Click to expand...

here is you rule to live by with that question.

IT IS ALL ABOUT YOUR SCORING SYSTEM.

If you get more pts for throwing TD's than rushing, you NEED an elite rusher - go QB no matter what.

If it's a standard league with 1 Qb and 2 RB etc - with normal 4pt per td scoring, rice, mccoy and foster are the only way to go
 
I gotta get my draft kit together...  $500+ Payout this year in my PPR league.  Its getting real.
 
almost have my 16 team league filled.... tough to convince enough guys that a deep league is fun 
laugh.gif
 but each year we usually pick up 1-2 regulars so we are up to about 12 regular returners and I only had 4 spots to fill.
 
Who should I draft in a 12 player PPR league? I got the #2 pick I am torn between Shady and Arod?
 
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rck2sactown said:
almost have my 16 team league filled.... tough to convince enough guys that a deep league is fun :lol:  but each year we usually pick up 1-2 regulars so we are up to about 12 regular returners and I only had 4 spots to fill.
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Did a 16 teamer last year it was actually fun
 
rck2sactown said:
almost have my 16 team league filled.... tough to convince enough guys that a deep league is fun :lol:  but each year we usually pick up 1-2 regulars so we are up to about 12 regular returners and I only had 4 spots to fill.
Click to expand...

I find it fun...Until my team succumbs to injury. Then it sucks. :lol:

Seriously though, I like the challenge. I usually OD with FF teams so I mix it up with 10-teamers up to 20-teamers. Requires different acumen.
 
MrDills said:
Who should I draft in a 12 player PPR league? I got the #2 pick I am torn between Shady and Arod?
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Not considering whoever the manager with the #1 pick doesn't select, between Foster and Rice?

Not to complicate your decision, but you could even go Megatron top-2 or 3 in a PPR league. I personally wouldn't, just a suggestion.

Between your original two mentioned players, tough call but I'm going Rodgers over Shady slightly. Rodgers is the top fantasy QB just above Brady. GB's pass-happy offense is inclined to produce similar eye popping numbers to 2011-2012. Shady is clearly the #3 RB in fantasy (PPR or not), but I feel you get better value at RB with your second-round selection (#23). Brees, Cam, and Stafford are all gone by then. Hypothetical choice of RBs at #23: Sproles, Matthews, Trent Richardson, F. Jackson, and Charles.
 
My friend who's co-commish agreed to add 2 more players to make it a 16 team league. :smh: :x
 
bearclawd said:
My friend who's co-commish agreed to add 2 more players to make it a 16 team league. :smh: :x
Click to expand...
I actually like deeper leagues. Separates the real fantasy players from the "pretenders." Really have to hit on all your early-round picks. Must have sound draft strategy and stick to it regardless of other managers. I would absolutely save TE, D/ST, and K for last in a 16-team league.
 
ChampCruThik said:
bearclawd said:
My friend who's co-commish agreed to add 2 more players to make it a 16 team league.
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sick.gif
Click to expand...
I actually like deeper leagues. Separates the real fantasy players from the "pretenders." Really have to hit on all your early-round picks. Must have sound draft strategy and stick to it regardless of other managers. I would absolutely save TE, D/ST, and K for last in a 16-team league.
Click to expand...
I actually run a 16 team league. 

I have about 10-12 regulars, usually picking up another regular every other year or so. I'm in the 5th year of running this league. 

Its really fun.

Question: We have the regular starting line up (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, RB/WR, TE, D/ST, K) but I'm not sure what to do with the bench. 

We used to do 6 but that left the FA pool super dry. So a few years ago I made it 4 bench slots with 1 IR. It makes it tough to get thru bye weeks if you didn't plan accordingly, but does that seem fair?
 
RCK: I'm down for your 16-team league if you'll have me. Also, to preface, I'm tapped out for leagues with buy-in so hoping yours is free entry.

To answer your question, I would implement 5 bench spots with no IR. It's rare for an IR spot in fantasy football.
 
Its a money league, sorry man.

The IR spot is good though just because every single year pretty much every team gets an injury. 

I'm just nervous about going to 5 bench spots because that will be another 16 FA's that won't be available. When usually there are only 4-8 waiver claims
 
I played in one last year and the bottom feeders in the second half gave up and dropped all their players... Combining teams and ****. :x
 
More quick Fantasy Football tips for the 2012-2013 season:
QB - Mike Vick presents tremendous value and upside. Ranked #41 on Yahoo and #32 on ESPN. When healthy, which is admittedly a big key, Vick has top-10 even top-5 fantasy potential. While rival managers are reaching for Cam or Matty Stafford, wait for a MV7, Rivers, or Peyton Manning while they solidify your RB and WR positions with depth.
RB - If you're fortunate enough to draw the #1 overall pick and take Foster, be absolutely sure to handcuff Arian with Ben Tate. Tate will get a steady load even if Foster stays healthy over 16. Rice is officially the #1 RB on my board over Foster. Shady is third. I'm not buying Trent as high as Yahoo is selling him. Beanie is too low for my taste. I don't imagine Arizona will air it out often with Skelton or Kolb. Ridley provides substantial RB depth for late-round value.
WR - I'm selling DeSean high because of big play ability. He's a clear deep threat to burn defenses. Got his long-term contract so goodbye to "alligator arms." Antonio Brown will have a monster season. Being a return threat is just an added bonus.
TE - I'm not buying into Gronk and Jimmy that high. Going TE top-25 could potentially limit your RB and WR positions substantially. Pettigrew a solid choice in middle-rounds.
DEF - Houston and Seattle seem to be somewhat undervalued compared to GB, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore.
K - I like Bironas and Gould with one of your last picks.
 
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