2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Of course, he leaves my most hated team and goes to the Phillies. At least I won't have to see him all the time during the season.
 
Of course, he leaves my most hated team and goes to the Phillies. At least I won't have to see him all the time during the season.
 
Originally Posted by throwback1718

Papsmear has to be the most disrespectful name in all of professional sports.
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  I like it.

He is gonna get rocked tho...........
 
Marlins look to avoid repeating history.

Spoiler [+]
The Marlins are working from a well-worn playbook as they prepare to open a new ballpark. The theory is that if they invest in big names, fans will be inspired to fill the place. Build it and they will come -- if you fill it with stars. Albert Pujols is a star, and so is Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle would be an excellent complement to Josh Johnson.

We don't yet know the substance of the offers made to the trio of players, and whether the proposals are designed for a nice public-relations show and timed as a corollary to the unveiling of the club's new name. A new ballpark, a new team, a new payroll, a new bank account. The Miami Marlins: They're not your dad's Florida Marlins.

[+] Enlarge
Jeff Curry/Getty ImagesAlbert Pujols is among the players the Marlins are pursuing.

But if the offers are substantial enough to actually entice the players to South Florida, and Pujols decides he wants to co-own the city with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, the Marlins' great experiment would tell us, once and for all, whether the area can support baseball. Barry Bonds signed with the Giants and soon thereafter San Francisco unveiled a new park, where baseball thrives. The Tigers traded for Juan Gonzalez in the hope of making him the face of Comerica Park, and he rejected an offer of almost $150 million -- and as it turned out, he didn't help the team or attendance much, and Detroit was lucky he didn't sign.

The Diamondbacks mortgaged future payrolls by immediately loading up their roster, signing Randy Johnson and trading for Curt Schilling, and they won the World Series in their fourth year of existence -- but the debt for the initial rush forced major cost-cutting, and attendance collapsed. The Pirates took half-measures, signing the likes of shortstop Pat Meares, and with the team losing 100 games in the first season of PNC Park, attendance dropped from about 2.5 million in the first year to about 1.8 million in the second year -- an opportunity missed, clearly.

Over the last year, I asked about a dozen folks with past ties to the Marlins and to Miami about the chances that the new ballpark, on a new site, will change the way the franchise is perceived, and it would be charitable to say that there is enormous skepticism. Quite simply, there is doubt about whether South Florida will embrace baseball.

Assuming the offer for Pujols is enough to make him think about leaving St. Louis to sign with the Marlins, Jeffrey Loria deserves credit for trying to make it work for his franchise, for attempting to alter perception of his club and excite a fan base that has been disinterested to this point. The worry in all this, however, is that the quick splash doesn't work. If the Marlins were to sign the likes of Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle and then the team didn't win, then the next step, inevitably, would be for Loria to follow the trail once taken by Wayne Huizenga.

You remember the 1997 Florida Marlins, one of the great comets in baseball history. In the first four years after the franchise opened for business, they saw attendance sink from about 38,000 per game in the first year to about 22,000 per game in the fourth year. The Marlins spent aggressively on stars before the 1997 season, hiring Jim Leyland, adding Moises Alou and Bobby Bonilla, trading for Cliff Floyd. Florida won the wild card, knocked off the Braves in the National League Championship Series and outlasted the Indians in the World Series -- but not with the kind of box-office support that Huizenga envisioned.

The quick fix didn't happen as the owner hoped. So the stars were traded off, Huizenga dumped the team, and much goodwill with the fan base was lost.

This is the risk that would come along with a Pujols, a Reyes, a Buehrle. If the Marlins signed those players, writes Clark Spencer, it could put their payroll in the $130 million range.

This could either change the future of baseball in south Florida, or it could be the baseball version of "Waterworld."

Meet the Miami Marlins, writes Greg Cote. The dream of Marlins fans has finally come true, says Loria. He says he won't discuss the new offers. The Marlins are hoping to unveil a dream team, writes Joe Capozzi.

• The best news of Friday came from Venezuela, where Wilson Ramos was found and freed.

I asked an executive the other day if there is anything his team could do about the risk for his organization's players in Venezuela, and he sighed. "You can't make the country safer," he said, before explaining that the players would have to weigh for themselves the decision of where to live.

Melvin Mora is worried for the Ramos family. Bill Smith says baseball players have been at enormous risk in that country.

• The Phillies invested their money in the experience of Jonathan Papelbon, and landed one of the best -- maybe the best -- closers on the market. The Phillies have bolstered their chances for winning in the near future, and have again backloaded the cost, in age and in the resulting damage to the farm system.

From ESPN Stats & Info: The Phillies and Papelbon have agreed to a deal, pending a physical, at four years, $50 million with a vesting option that could make the total package worth over $60 million. Papelbon's four-year, $50-million deal, if finalized, would be the largest total package ever signed by a relief pitcher. The previous high was the five-year, $47 million contract signed by B.J. Ryan with Toronto in December 2005.

Next level: Papelbon became the Red Sox closer in 2006. According to wins above replacement, Papelbon was the most valuable reliever from that point until the close of the 2011 season, with 14.7 (Mariano Rivera was second with 13.9).

Papelbon's 219 saves are the second-most for a pitcher in his first seven seasons in the MLB, behind Trevor Hoffman (228).

The Red Sox will miss Papelbon, writes Dan Shaughnessy. His departure leaves a big hole for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Cardinals could be just one of several suitors for Albert Pujols, writes Rick Hummel.

2. The Rangers are not likely to pursue Pujols or Fielder, says Nolan Ryan.

3. The Twins are about to sign a shortstop, writes La Velle Neal.

4. The Diamondbacks have a backup plan in the event Stephen Drew is not ready, writes Nick Piecoro.

5. The Rockies are among the teams interested in Grady Sizemore.

6. It doesn't appear as if the Angels will be big spenders this offseason, writes Mike DiGiovanna. Some baseball people who have been in conversation with the Angels believe this: (A) they will not be among the bidders for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, and (B) new GM Jerry DiPoto is in full control of the decisions, and Mike Scioscia is wholly focused on managing the team, rather than player personnel choices.

7. The Pirates signed Rod Barajas.

8. Mike Matheny looks like the favorite to be the Cardinals' next manager, writes Bernie Miklasz.

9. The Reds are not going to be big players in the free-agent market, writes John Fay.

10. Sandy Alomar Jr. is now playing a waiting game, writes Paul Hoynes.

11. Theo Epstein and his staff interviewed a fourth candidate for manager.

12. The sale of the Astros could be completed next week.

13. Bolstering the rotation is key for the Yankees, says Joe Girardi.

Reyes, Marlins a match.

Spoiler [+]
There were almost certainly some eyebrows raised earlier this week when the Miami Herald reported that the soon-to-be renamed Florida Marlins were actively pursuing Jose Reyes. The Marlins aren't usually big spenders on the free-agent market, and their acquisitions are typically of the bargain bin variety.

However, the Fish are moving into a new stadium next season, and with that should come a boost in revenue. And when you examine the rest of their portfolio, it becomes clear that the eventual Miami Marlins should stop at nothing to sign Reyes.

Here are a four reasons:
[h3]They severely underperformed[/h3]
It would be easy to look at Florida's 72-90 record last season and conclude that the Marlins aren't close enough to contending to make signing Reyes worth it. But a closer inspection reveals that the Marlins were much better than their record indicated.

According to Baseball Prospectus' 3rd-order winning percentage, which is a team's projected winning percentage based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents, the Marlins performed like an 80-win team.

That gap of minus-8 wins was the worst in the National League, and suggests the team was better than it appeared. Furthermore, the Fish were able to be an "80-win team" despite Hanley Ramirez having the worst year of his career and getting just nine starts from ace Josh Johnson.
[h3]They need a third baseman[/h3]
Of course, Reyes is a shortstop, as is Ramirez. But if the Marlins sign Reyes, Ramirez will almost assuredly move to third base. In 2011, Florida third basemen combined to post a .662 OPS, which is obviously terrible. While Ramirez wasn't that much better (.712 OPS), it's more likely that was a one-year aberration for one of the most talented players in the game.

Additionally, his defense at short has been in question for years, and a position switch is inevitable. Now is as good of a time as any. Ramirez even recently indicated that he would move to third for Reyes. And while third baseman Matt Dominguez is one of Florida's best prospects and defense is his calling card, he has a career minor league line of .255/.325/.418. He simply hasn't shown enough to assume he is a long-term solution at third, particularly not when a player like Reyes is available.

Other than Mike Stanton, the Marlins didn't have a player who was significantly above-average offensively relative to his position in 2011. If you put Reyes in the mix, get a full season from Logan Morrison and assume Ramirez will be some version of his usual self in 2012, you have the makings of a dynamic offense with both power and speed.

Assume for a second that the Marlins' true talent in 2011 was 80 wins. And let's assume that Ramirez can be the 4-to-5 win player he's been for most of his career, and Johnson can pitch a full season. Add Reyes, and you're looking at a 90-win team. That's a playoff contender.
[h3]They have long-term flexibility[/h3]
Of course, the biggest reason not to sign Reyes is that he would hamstring (no pun intended) the club's future finances. But thanks to the trusty Cot's Baseball Contracts, we can see that the Marlins have just $16 million committed for 2014, and zero dollars committed beyond that.

That's right, a big fat zero. If there is any club in baseball that has long-term flexibility, it's the Marlins.
[h3]They're built to win[/h3]
That sounds weird to say about a 72-win team, but in Stanton, Johnson and Ramirez the Marlins have a trio that is about as talented as any other in baseball. You can't stand pat when you have high-end talent like that. Florida also has a bunch of other more-than-serviceable pieces in Morrison, Anibal Sanchez and Gaby Sanchez. These are all players who are either in their primes or entering it, and Reyes would give them a well-rounded core with a lot of upside.

Of course, Reyes comes with injury concerns. But as we learn year after year, there are no guarantees on the free-agent market. So when a player comes along that fits your needs at a time when you have a revenue boost on the way, long-term flexibility and a team that is ready to compete, it would be crazy not to try to capitalize. As our ESPN colleague Herm Edwards famously said, "You play to win," and the Marlins are in position to do just that.

They might not look like a sleeping giant, but they are. If the Fish sign Jose Reyes, they will quickly become a force to be reckoned with in the National League.

Papelbon a mistake for the Phillies.

Spoiler [+]
I thought signing Ryan Madson for four years and $44 million was a bad idea, even though he is the best free-agent reliever on the market, both short- and long-term. The history of signing relievers to deals of that length is simply too awful to ignore.

That contract would have been a bargain relative to the four-year deal the Phillies are about to give Jonathan Papelbon -- more money, plus a lost draft pick, for an inferior reliever who gives up more fly balls.

Papelbon was the second-best relief option on the market, but even in one of his best seasons in 2011, he was worth only two or three wins above replacement, and I'd put the over/under on his WAR for this deal at around eight, which would still make it a pretty bad contract. But the real issue with any reliever and with Papelbon specifically is high attrition rates -- relievers don't last, and their peaks tend to be short.

Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia. (His career-low home run rate in 2011 wasn't going to last, anyway.) And Papelbon has worked limited innings, never reaching 70 in a season, probably the Red Sox's response to his 2006 shoulder injury.

The Phillies, as a team, threw 1,477 innings in 2011 and are now going to pay, on average, $12.5 million per year to Papelbon to throw maybe 4.5 percent of those. If they maintained that per-inning rate across their entire staff, they'd spend about $277 million on pitching alone. And since the ninth inning isn't always, or even often, the most leveraged inning in a game, this is a criminal misapplication of funds, not to mention the discarding of yet another first-round draft pick for the Phillies, whose farm system is depleted after a number of trades and other first-round picks lost for free-agent signings.

Madson remains the best reliever on the market, but the gap between him and the second-best option is much larger, and that should help him max out his value, although the Phillies might just be completely out of touch with the market for relievers and how a sane executive would rationally value the innings they provide.
As for the Red Sox, they pick up the Phillies' first-round pick, which would make it easier for them to use their own in signing a Type A free agent. They can slide Daniel Bard into the ninth inning -- I don't see his stuff or arm slot translating to the rotation -- and invest the money not spent there on shoring up their rotation.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]NL club offers Doumit[/h3]
12:49PM ET

[h5]Ryan Doumit | Pirates[/h5]

"Ryan Doumit has received multiple offers" and "expects to sign by the end of November," reported ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick via Twitter last week. Crasnick adds Saturday that all of the interest had come from AL clubs until an offer from an NL club arrived over the weekend.

Doumit, who has catching experience but is generally viewed as more of a corner utility player, could be a nice fit with a club that doesn't need him to catch but doesn't have stalwart options at first base, designated hitter or in right field.

He's from Washington State but has played his entire career in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. No word on which clubs have made the offers, and it's difficult to pinpoint the best possibilities because he could fit just about anywhere, thanks to his offensive strengths.

Crasnick adds that Doumit is looking for a one-year deal.

The Pirates declined the two-year option and paid Doumit a $500,000 buyout. If they tender him an offer of arbitration, the Pirates will received a sandwich pick in next June's draft, since Doumit qualifies as a Type-B free agent.
[h3]Twins want their closer back[/h3]
12:41PM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins[/h5]

Joe Nathan had his 2012 option declined by the Minnesota Twins last month, as discussed here by ESPN's Doug Mittler. Nathan, however, pitched well the second half of the season, and should draw plenty of interest this winter.

As tweeted by SI.com's Jon Heyman, Nathan wants to close next season, and his post all-star break numbers suggest perhaps he's close to what he was prior to having Tommy John surgery. He converted all 11 of his save chances and posted a 22-5 K/BB ratio in 24 appearances during that span.

The Twins wants him back, GM Terry Ryan says, but the dollars will have to fit.

Whether Nathan gets offers outside Minnesota to close right away remains to be seen. Clubs such as the Los Angeles Dodgers could be a fit. The Texas Rangers could be looking for a new closer if they transition Nefatli Feliz to the starting rotation.

Nathan told Newsday last month that the Mets are certainly on his list, though such a statement should be taken with a grain of salt. Free agents would be wise to avoid eliminating any clubs and potentially hurting their market.

In the end, Nathan could fit best right back in Minnesota. The financial commitment involved is the key to both sides, as always.
[h3]How the Sox address the rotation[/h3]
12:36PM ET

[h5]Boston Red Sox[/h5]

The Boston Red Sox do not appear to be hot on the trail of free agents Mark Buehrle or C.J. Wilson, at least not in the early stages of the free agent season, nor have they been mentioned prominently in the potential posting of Yu Darvisg, the latest star from Japan. They do have holes to fill in the starting rotation, however.

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham reports that Alfredo Aceves could be moved to the rotation to help out at the back end and Nick Cafardo notes that the club may consider a similar transition for Daniel Bard.

The trade market could include right-hander Gavin Floyd or lefty John Danks of the Chicago White Sox as well as Los Angeles Dodgers' right-hander Chad Billingsley. Any of the three be targets for GM Ben Cherington. Danks is the best of the trio, though Floyd is signed long term.

Wandy Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill may also be trade targets. Rodriguez is certain to be available while the two A's pitchers may only be attainable for a big price.

Boston's best options down on the farm aren't quite ready for the show. Right-hander Anthony Ranaudo finished 2011 in Class-A Salem and has a big-league ETA somewhere after the middle of 2012, depending on who is asked.
[h3]CBA deal this week?[/h3]
12:27PM ET

[h5]CBA talks[/h5]

UPDATE: The league could announce the new agreement this week, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.

A source tells Rosenthal that the draft-related and free-agent compensation issues that have been holding up the deal are nearly a hurdle no more.

The GM meeting begin Tuesday in Milwaukee, which could interrupt the progress being made in CBA talks, but league sources suggest both sides are motivated to get something done before the end of the week.
UPDATE: Negotiations in baseball's stalled labor talks have taken "a step forward" this week, according to one source familiar with the discussions, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. And a second source told ESPN.com it's possible a deal could be completed this week.

Stark continues: "However, another source described the chances of an agreement this week as only about 50-50, saying that the sides had made what appeared to be similar progress in the past, only to get stuck on other issues.

"Owners and players have been stalled for weeks over management's push for a hard slotting system for amateur draft picks. The players' union has adamantly resisted hard slotting, so the sides have been exploring alternatives based on 'luxury taxes' or other incentives designed to keep spending on the draft within more rigid limitations.

"The other major issue that is still unresolved is a change in compensation for premier free agents. The union is pressing for a new system that would either no longer require teams to give up first-round draft picks as compensation for signing a top free agent, or would like to reduce the number of players who would qualify as 'Type A' free agents.

"Club officials and agents both believe the uncertainty over those changes, and whether they would take effect this winter, has had an impact on the current free-agent market."

"It's not that unusual for things to develop slowly," said one prominent agent. "But I think the (labor uncertainty) is definitely having an effect. I think some teams just want to know a deal is in place before they start spending significant money."
As recently as a few weeks ago, the owners and the Players Association were making steady progress toward a new collective bargaining agreement. That momentum appeared to have stalled over Bud Selig's insistence on a hard slotting for bonuses paid to high draft picks, but there have been several tweets, including this one from Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports on Tuesday, that significant progress has been made on an agreement.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, who wrote last month that it didn't appear that draft slotting would hold up a deal, wrote Tuesday that one of the important aspects of change in the new CBA is centered on draft pick compensation for Type-A free agents.

Hall of Famer Bill Madden wrote over the weekend that the commissioner remains deeply committed to the draft slotting process while the union views the system as a form of a salary cap.

With the chances of reaching a new deal by the time the old one expires in December now in question, Madden says the free agent market for big ticket players such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes could be "held hostage." Clubs will want to know the financial parameters of issues such as a luxury tax and free agent compensation before moving forward.
[h3]2B, SS options for Cardinals[/h3]
12:21PM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals have potential openings to fill at second base and shortstop, on top of the gaping hole at first base that they hope will be refilled by Albert Pujols. There are several options on the free agent market at both middle infield positions.

Cards' GM John Mozeliak, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, is projecting Daniel Descalso as the second baseman next season and "wouldn't mind" a double-play combo of Descalso and Tyler Greene.

The free agent market provides some veterans that make sense for the Cardinals, however, including potentially bringing back Rafael Furcal at shortstop. Furcal has expressed interest in returning to St. Louis in 2012.

Nick Punto could also be back on a free agent deal, depending on what else his market bares. Clint Barmes could also be a fit.

Veteran second baseman Mark Ellis could be considered as well, unless Mozeliak was not posturing in the least in his comments about Descalso's role in 2012.

The Cards may have to go cheap in some areas if they re-sign Pujols, since their payroll is stretched about as far as anyone expected already, and the bullpen and rotation may need a little tweaking this offseason.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Who plays center for Indians?[/h3]
12:13PM ET

[h5]Cleveland Indians[/h5]


The Cleveland Indians declined the $9 million option on Grady Sizemore and appear to be in the market for outfield help, as Kosuke Fukudome is also a free agent. It also appears that the clubs is not sold on Michael Brantley as the next everyday option in center, which may mean GM Chrios Antonetti is in the market for a centerfielder.

The free agent market is fairly dry, with such options as Coco Crisp, who much prefers to stay on the West Coast, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus, as well as several that project as fourth outfielders.

If the Indians are to add a legit center field option, it's likely to come via trade, where the likes of Denard Span or B.J. Upton could be available.

Brantley is likely the fallback option and the Indians also have Ezequiel Carrera to serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he can handle center defensively.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Impact of Carroll's arrival[/h3]
12:03PM ET

[h5]Jamey Carroll | Dodgers[/h5]


The Minnesota Twins have found their starting shortstop, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, who reports the deal is simply pending a physical at this stage. Crasnick first reported the two sides were "closing in on a multiyear deal."
http://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick/status/135089939196035072
The Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians were reportedly interest in Carroll, too, but the Indians don't have a starting to job to guarantee Carroll, and the Braves are looking for a one-year stop-gap to play in front of a prospect, Tyler Pastronicky.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweets that Carroll's two-year deal with the Twins will be worth around $7 million guaranteed.

Carroll may have been the best shortstop option on the market after Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Still remaining are Rafael Furcal, Nick Punto and Clint Barmes, among others, with clubs such as the Braves, Phillies and Cardinals with holes to fill at the position.

His signing in Minnesota, which is expected to be finalized soon, means Trevor Plouffe moves off the shortstop position. Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN tweets that GM Terry Ryan has Plouffe slated for outfield and DH work in 2012.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Update on Cespedes[/h3]
12:00PM ET

[h5]Yoennis Cespedes[/h5]


Yoenis Cespedes, who defected from Cuba and has been drawing interested from a number of clubs this month, may have to wait until January to be granted free agency by Major League Baseball, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer.

The Detroit Tigers, reports Lynn Henning, have "strong" interest in Cespedes. Adding the Cuban star makes for an interesting outfield in Motown, at least if starts the 2012 season in the majors. The Cubs, reports Carrie Muskat, will have the 26-year-old in for a private workout soon.

Yoennis Cespedes, a centerfielder, is expected to be granted free agency at some point this offseason, and the New York Yankees could make a splash by going after him.

ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand explained Friday how Cespedes would make sense for the Yanks, despite a fully occupied outfield.

Baseball America's Ben Badler, reported the team had Cespedes in for a private workout Monday.

Cespedes' representatives, which include Adam Katz, are looking for a deal similar to the one the Cincinnati Reds gave left-hander Aroldis Chapman -- $30 million.

Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel was the first to report that the Marlins are the favorites to land Cespedes, and Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown broke down the full list of suitors, including the Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates.

There is some footage on Cespedes here and here.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could SF deal Lincecum?[/h3]
11:57AM ET

[h5]Tim Lincecum | Giants[/h5]


The San Francisco Giants have among the best starting rotations in baseball, but Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com writes that the club may have to consider trading ace Tim Lincecum to add the necessary offensive pieces to compete moving forward.

They can try to sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, or double up and try for Grady Sizemore and another bat such as Carlos Pena, but both are likely short-term fixes at best, and come with a lot of risk in their own right.

Trading Lincecum, who has to be dealt with financially this winter, anyway, as his two-year extension expired at the end of the season, will be a free agent after the 2013 season unless a long-term extension is agreed upon before then.

Lincecum could return a haul that helps the Giants for years. Perhaps the New York Yankees are a fit -- they could offer Jesus Montero as the base of a return package.

In the end the Giants could move Matt Cain, instead, though his value doesn't touch that of Lincecum, largely because he's due for free agency after 2012, and is considered a No. 2 starter.

SI.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Saturday that there is presently no evidence that the Giants will consider moving either pitcher, however.

- Jason A. Churchill

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Pena can help, but ...
"Pena crushes right-handed pitching, getting on base and hitting for power, but he needs a right-handed platoon-mate to handle southpaws. He'll add a little value with his glove and everyone raves about his makeup, but the bottom line is that he's not a 162-game solution at first base -- he's just better than the other options on the market. If you don't need defense and are just looking for a DH, David Ortiz slots in here."
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http://[h3]Papi or an OF[/h3]
11:55AM ET

[h5]David Ortiz | Red Sox[/h5]


UPDATE: Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said Saturday that talks are ongoing between the club and their designated hitter, suggesting that something may get done between the two sides.

Ortiz could also fit in with the Tampa Bay Rays and any of the four teams in the American League West if he isn't headed back to Boston.

Cherington added that of the club retains Ortiz, they are unlikely to add an outfielder, which would eliminate the Sox from contention for free agent Carlos Beltran. Boston's right fielder would then likely be Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick or a combination of both.

- Jason A. Churchill
With closer Jonathan Papelbon bolting Boston for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Red Sox could use some good news. Taking care of longtime DH David Ortiz could do the trick.

As Joe McDonald of ESPNBoston.com reported, new GM Ben Cherington has been in touch with Ortiz and his agent. "David knows we want him to be here," Cherington said. "We want him to be back with the Red Sox, and we want him in our lineup."

For his part, Ortiz has indicated he wants to re-sign with Boston, too. A deal could be done here sooner rather than later.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Cards offer to beat: 9/$210m[/h3]
11:53AM ET

[h5]Albert Pujols | Cardinals[/h5]


UPDATE: The offer to beat for Pujols appears to be the nine-year, $210 million offer reportedly submitted before the 2011 season, tweets SI.com's Jon Heyman. The Cardinals do not plan to greatly increase that offer, Heyman says.
I think we all assumed other clubs would at least look into the free agency of Albert Pujols, and the Miami Marlins, as they become Friday, are the first reported club to set up a meeting with Pujols and his agent, Dan Lozano, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. That meeting is expected to occur "within the next few days," and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports Friday that the club's interest in the three-time MVP is legitimate.

The Marlins have also had talks with shortstop Jose Reyes and have been linked to lefties Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson and first baseman Prince Fielder. How much money the Fish can actually spend this winter remains to be seen but they are certainly getting their due diligence out of the way early.

Most analysts seem to believe Pujols ends up back in St. Louis, but that appears far from a sure thing. It's likely to come down to money and length of contract, of course, but Pujols is also likely to want to keep winning, as well.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark assessed the market for Pujols and Fielder in his Rumbling and Grumblings column Thursday:

- Jason A. Churchill

stark_jayson_30.jpg
[h5]Jayson Stark[/h5]
How much for Albert?
"Rumblings surveyed a dozen executives from clubs that are unlikely to participate in this auction and asked them to predict A) how many years and dollars each player would get, and B) what team would give it to them. Here is what we found: The Pujols prognostications were fascinating. They ranged from 10 years, $300 million to one (mostly tongue-in-cheek) prediction of three years, $90 million. But otherwise, nobody forecast a deal shorter than seven years. And the average contract worked out to 8.5 years, at just over $28 million a year."
Click to expand...

http://[h3]Hot corner in Anaheim[/h3]
11:44AM ET

[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels[/h5]


The Los Angeles Angels did not receive much production from their third baseman last season -- five players combined to bat .284/.354/.379 with seven home runs -- hence their considering moving Mark Trumbo across the diamond, as reported by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County-Register.

Trumbo, however, had a setback in his recovery from a stress fracture in his right foot and will need another month to heal, delaying his attempted defensive transition.

Such news could derail the thought altogether, or push the Angels and new GM Jerry DiPoto in another direction this winter.

Albert Callaspo and Maicer Izturis played the majority of games at third last season, but Callaspo could be a non-tender candidate after making $2 million in 2011. His salary for next season could approach the $4 million range.

Aramis Ramirez, the top free agent third baseman available this offseason, is not an option, DiPoto told ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Darvish not coming to states?[/h3]
11:43AM ET

[h5]Yu Darvish, RHP[/h5]

UPDATE: SI.com's Jon Heyman is hearing similar whispers surrounding the doubt on whether or not Darvish will be posted this winter.

It once seemed a sure thing, but if Darvish isn't to be posted the values of the rest of the free agent starting pitching market skyrockets.
We've discussed the reports that suggest the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers all have interest in right-hander Yu Darvish, if the ace decides to request to be posted by his team the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Darvish wrote in his personal blog last month that he has yet to make a decision, and the Yankees will not confirm they are set to make a bid if Darvish is indeed posted.

Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com writes Tuesday that the Fighters are not expected to make a decision on whether or not to post the right-hander until after the Japan Series, which does not begin for another few weeks.

That time gap could push clubs in other directions and limit the number of teams that bid aggressively on Darvish.

The Rangers may have just as big of a need in the rotation as any club in baseball if C.J. Wilson finds greener pastures elsewhere, and the club could use another frontline arm, anyway.

The Yankees have to deal the CC Sabathia situation first and foremost, and the Red Sox may be gunshy after their experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka.

We haven't heard much, if anything at all, on whether or not the Detroit Tigers or the Chicago Cubs have interest in Darvish, but they spend money and have a need in the rotation. The Reds don't figure to jump into such a bidding war, but the Washington Nationals scouted Darvish several times this season, tweets Amanda Comak.

ESPN Insider's Keith Law chimes in with his take on what Darvis brings to the table.

- Jason A. Churchill

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 3 -- Yu Darvish, RHP
"Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings. He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings."
Click to expand...

olney_buster_30.jpg
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The favorite for Darvish
"There is no doubt that there is going to be a lot of play on Yu Darvish. Within the industry, the team that's considered to be the favorite going into the process is the Texas Rangers."
Click to expand...
 
Marlins look to avoid repeating history.

Spoiler [+]
The Marlins are working from a well-worn playbook as they prepare to open a new ballpark. The theory is that if they invest in big names, fans will be inspired to fill the place. Build it and they will come -- if you fill it with stars. Albert Pujols is a star, and so is Jose Reyes, and Mark Buehrle would be an excellent complement to Josh Johnson.

We don't yet know the substance of the offers made to the trio of players, and whether the proposals are designed for a nice public-relations show and timed as a corollary to the unveiling of the club's new name. A new ballpark, a new team, a new payroll, a new bank account. The Miami Marlins: They're not your dad's Florida Marlins.

[+] Enlarge
Jeff Curry/Getty ImagesAlbert Pujols is among the players the Marlins are pursuing.

But if the offers are substantial enough to actually entice the players to South Florida, and Pujols decides he wants to co-own the city with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, the Marlins' great experiment would tell us, once and for all, whether the area can support baseball. Barry Bonds signed with the Giants and soon thereafter San Francisco unveiled a new park, where baseball thrives. The Tigers traded for Juan Gonzalez in the hope of making him the face of Comerica Park, and he rejected an offer of almost $150 million -- and as it turned out, he didn't help the team or attendance much, and Detroit was lucky he didn't sign.

The Diamondbacks mortgaged future payrolls by immediately loading up their roster, signing Randy Johnson and trading for Curt Schilling, and they won the World Series in their fourth year of existence -- but the debt for the initial rush forced major cost-cutting, and attendance collapsed. The Pirates took half-measures, signing the likes of shortstop Pat Meares, and with the team losing 100 games in the first season of PNC Park, attendance dropped from about 2.5 million in the first year to about 1.8 million in the second year -- an opportunity missed, clearly.

Over the last year, I asked about a dozen folks with past ties to the Marlins and to Miami about the chances that the new ballpark, on a new site, will change the way the franchise is perceived, and it would be charitable to say that there is enormous skepticism. Quite simply, there is doubt about whether South Florida will embrace baseball.

Assuming the offer for Pujols is enough to make him think about leaving St. Louis to sign with the Marlins, Jeffrey Loria deserves credit for trying to make it work for his franchise, for attempting to alter perception of his club and excite a fan base that has been disinterested to this point. The worry in all this, however, is that the quick splash doesn't work. If the Marlins were to sign the likes of Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle and then the team didn't win, then the next step, inevitably, would be for Loria to follow the trail once taken by Wayne Huizenga.

You remember the 1997 Florida Marlins, one of the great comets in baseball history. In the first four years after the franchise opened for business, they saw attendance sink from about 38,000 per game in the first year to about 22,000 per game in the fourth year. The Marlins spent aggressively on stars before the 1997 season, hiring Jim Leyland, adding Moises Alou and Bobby Bonilla, trading for Cliff Floyd. Florida won the wild card, knocked off the Braves in the National League Championship Series and outlasted the Indians in the World Series -- but not with the kind of box-office support that Huizenga envisioned.

The quick fix didn't happen as the owner hoped. So the stars were traded off, Huizenga dumped the team, and much goodwill with the fan base was lost.

This is the risk that would come along with a Pujols, a Reyes, a Buehrle. If the Marlins signed those players, writes Clark Spencer, it could put their payroll in the $130 million range.

This could either change the future of baseball in south Florida, or it could be the baseball version of "Waterworld."

Meet the Miami Marlins, writes Greg Cote. The dream of Marlins fans has finally come true, says Loria. He says he won't discuss the new offers. The Marlins are hoping to unveil a dream team, writes Joe Capozzi.

• The best news of Friday came from Venezuela, where Wilson Ramos was found and freed.

I asked an executive the other day if there is anything his team could do about the risk for his organization's players in Venezuela, and he sighed. "You can't make the country safer," he said, before explaining that the players would have to weigh for themselves the decision of where to live.

Melvin Mora is worried for the Ramos family. Bill Smith says baseball players have been at enormous risk in that country.

• The Phillies invested their money in the experience of Jonathan Papelbon, and landed one of the best -- maybe the best -- closers on the market. The Phillies have bolstered their chances for winning in the near future, and have again backloaded the cost, in age and in the resulting damage to the farm system.

From ESPN Stats & Info: The Phillies and Papelbon have agreed to a deal, pending a physical, at four years, $50 million with a vesting option that could make the total package worth over $60 million. Papelbon's four-year, $50-million deal, if finalized, would be the largest total package ever signed by a relief pitcher. The previous high was the five-year, $47 million contract signed by B.J. Ryan with Toronto in December 2005.

Next level: Papelbon became the Red Sox closer in 2006. According to wins above replacement, Papelbon was the most valuable reliever from that point until the close of the 2011 season, with 14.7 (Mariano Rivera was second with 13.9).

Papelbon's 219 saves are the second-most for a pitcher in his first seven seasons in the MLB, behind Trevor Hoffman (228).

The Red Sox will miss Papelbon, writes Dan Shaughnessy. His departure leaves a big hole for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Cardinals could be just one of several suitors for Albert Pujols, writes Rick Hummel.

2. The Rangers are not likely to pursue Pujols or Fielder, says Nolan Ryan.

3. The Twins are about to sign a shortstop, writes La Velle Neal.

4. The Diamondbacks have a backup plan in the event Stephen Drew is not ready, writes Nick Piecoro.

5. The Rockies are among the teams interested in Grady Sizemore.

6. It doesn't appear as if the Angels will be big spenders this offseason, writes Mike DiGiovanna. Some baseball people who have been in conversation with the Angels believe this: (A) they will not be among the bidders for Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, and (B) new GM Jerry DiPoto is in full control of the decisions, and Mike Scioscia is wholly focused on managing the team, rather than player personnel choices.

7. The Pirates signed Rod Barajas.

8. Mike Matheny looks like the favorite to be the Cardinals' next manager, writes Bernie Miklasz.

9. The Reds are not going to be big players in the free-agent market, writes John Fay.

10. Sandy Alomar Jr. is now playing a waiting game, writes Paul Hoynes.

11. Theo Epstein and his staff interviewed a fourth candidate for manager.

12. The sale of the Astros could be completed next week.

13. Bolstering the rotation is key for the Yankees, says Joe Girardi.

Reyes, Marlins a match.

Spoiler [+]
There were almost certainly some eyebrows raised earlier this week when the Miami Herald reported that the soon-to-be renamed Florida Marlins were actively pursuing Jose Reyes. The Marlins aren't usually big spenders on the free-agent market, and their acquisitions are typically of the bargain bin variety.

However, the Fish are moving into a new stadium next season, and with that should come a boost in revenue. And when you examine the rest of their portfolio, it becomes clear that the eventual Miami Marlins should stop at nothing to sign Reyes.

Here are a four reasons:
[h3]They severely underperformed[/h3]
It would be easy to look at Florida's 72-90 record last season and conclude that the Marlins aren't close enough to contending to make signing Reyes worth it. But a closer inspection reveals that the Marlins were much better than their record indicated.

According to Baseball Prospectus' 3rd-order winning percentage, which is a team's projected winning percentage based on underlying statistics and adjusted for quality of opponents, the Marlins performed like an 80-win team.

That gap of minus-8 wins was the worst in the National League, and suggests the team was better than it appeared. Furthermore, the Fish were able to be an "80-win team" despite Hanley Ramirez having the worst year of his career and getting just nine starts from ace Josh Johnson.
[h3]They need a third baseman[/h3]
Of course, Reyes is a shortstop, as is Ramirez. But if the Marlins sign Reyes, Ramirez will almost assuredly move to third base. In 2011, Florida third basemen combined to post a .662 OPS, which is obviously terrible. While Ramirez wasn't that much better (.712 OPS), it's more likely that was a one-year aberration for one of the most talented players in the game.

Additionally, his defense at short has been in question for years, and a position switch is inevitable. Now is as good of a time as any. Ramirez even recently indicated that he would move to third for Reyes. And while third baseman Matt Dominguez is one of Florida's best prospects and defense is his calling card, he has a career minor league line of .255/.325/.418. He simply hasn't shown enough to assume he is a long-term solution at third, particularly not when a player like Reyes is available.

Other than Mike Stanton, the Marlins didn't have a player who was significantly above-average offensively relative to his position in 2011. If you put Reyes in the mix, get a full season from Logan Morrison and assume Ramirez will be some version of his usual self in 2012, you have the makings of a dynamic offense with both power and speed.

Assume for a second that the Marlins' true talent in 2011 was 80 wins. And let's assume that Ramirez can be the 4-to-5 win player he's been for most of his career, and Johnson can pitch a full season. Add Reyes, and you're looking at a 90-win team. That's a playoff contender.
[h3]They have long-term flexibility[/h3]
Of course, the biggest reason not to sign Reyes is that he would hamstring (no pun intended) the club's future finances. But thanks to the trusty Cot's Baseball Contracts, we can see that the Marlins have just $16 million committed for 2014, and zero dollars committed beyond that.

That's right, a big fat zero. If there is any club in baseball that has long-term flexibility, it's the Marlins.
[h3]They're built to win[/h3]
That sounds weird to say about a 72-win team, but in Stanton, Johnson and Ramirez the Marlins have a trio that is about as talented as any other in baseball. You can't stand pat when you have high-end talent like that. Florida also has a bunch of other more-than-serviceable pieces in Morrison, Anibal Sanchez and Gaby Sanchez. These are all players who are either in their primes or entering it, and Reyes would give them a well-rounded core with a lot of upside.

Of course, Reyes comes with injury concerns. But as we learn year after year, there are no guarantees on the free-agent market. So when a player comes along that fits your needs at a time when you have a revenue boost on the way, long-term flexibility and a team that is ready to compete, it would be crazy not to try to capitalize. As our ESPN colleague Herm Edwards famously said, "You play to win," and the Marlins are in position to do just that.

They might not look like a sleeping giant, but they are. If the Fish sign Jose Reyes, they will quickly become a force to be reckoned with in the National League.

Papelbon a mistake for the Phillies.

Spoiler [+]
I thought signing Ryan Madson for four years and $44 million was a bad idea, even though he is the best free-agent reliever on the market, both short- and long-term. The history of signing relievers to deals of that length is simply too awful to ignore.

That contract would have been a bargain relative to the four-year deal the Phillies are about to give Jonathan Papelbon -- more money, plus a lost draft pick, for an inferior reliever who gives up more fly balls.

Papelbon was the second-best relief option on the market, but even in one of his best seasons in 2011, he was worth only two or three wins above replacement, and I'd put the over/under on his WAR for this deal at around eight, which would still make it a pretty bad contract. But the real issue with any reliever and with Papelbon specifically is high attrition rates -- relievers don't last, and their peaks tend to be short.

Papelbon has remade himself once after bottoming out with a fastball-only approach a few years ago, but even now he relies heavily on the hard but very flat four-seamer, which likely won't translate well to a good home run park in Philadelphia. (His career-low home run rate in 2011 wasn't going to last, anyway.) And Papelbon has worked limited innings, never reaching 70 in a season, probably the Red Sox's response to his 2006 shoulder injury.

The Phillies, as a team, threw 1,477 innings in 2011 and are now going to pay, on average, $12.5 million per year to Papelbon to throw maybe 4.5 percent of those. If they maintained that per-inning rate across their entire staff, they'd spend about $277 million on pitching alone. And since the ninth inning isn't always, or even often, the most leveraged inning in a game, this is a criminal misapplication of funds, not to mention the discarding of yet another first-round draft pick for the Phillies, whose farm system is depleted after a number of trades and other first-round picks lost for free-agent signings.

Madson remains the best reliever on the market, but the gap between him and the second-best option is much larger, and that should help him max out his value, although the Phillies might just be completely out of touch with the market for relievers and how a sane executive would rationally value the innings they provide.
As for the Red Sox, they pick up the Phillies' first-round pick, which would make it easier for them to use their own in signing a Type A free agent. They can slide Daniel Bard into the ninth inning -- I don't see his stuff or arm slot translating to the rotation -- and invest the money not spent there on shoring up their rotation.

Rumors.

Spoiler [+]
[h3]NL club offers Doumit[/h3]
12:49PM ET

[h5]Ryan Doumit | Pirates[/h5]

"Ryan Doumit has received multiple offers" and "expects to sign by the end of November," reported ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick via Twitter last week. Crasnick adds Saturday that all of the interest had come from AL clubs until an offer from an NL club arrived over the weekend.

Doumit, who has catching experience but is generally viewed as more of a corner utility player, could be a nice fit with a club that doesn't need him to catch but doesn't have stalwart options at first base, designated hitter or in right field.

He's from Washington State but has played his entire career in the Pittsburgh Pirates organization. No word on which clubs have made the offers, and it's difficult to pinpoint the best possibilities because he could fit just about anywhere, thanks to his offensive strengths.

Crasnick adds that Doumit is looking for a one-year deal.

The Pirates declined the two-year option and paid Doumit a $500,000 buyout. If they tender him an offer of arbitration, the Pirates will received a sandwich pick in next June's draft, since Doumit qualifies as a Type-B free agent.
[h3]Twins want their closer back[/h3]
12:41PM ET

[h5]Joe Nathan | Twins[/h5]

Joe Nathan had his 2012 option declined by the Minnesota Twins last month, as discussed here by ESPN's Doug Mittler. Nathan, however, pitched well the second half of the season, and should draw plenty of interest this winter.

As tweeted by SI.com's Jon Heyman, Nathan wants to close next season, and his post all-star break numbers suggest perhaps he's close to what he was prior to having Tommy John surgery. He converted all 11 of his save chances and posted a 22-5 K/BB ratio in 24 appearances during that span.

The Twins wants him back, GM Terry Ryan says, but the dollars will have to fit.

Whether Nathan gets offers outside Minnesota to close right away remains to be seen. Clubs such as the Los Angeles Dodgers could be a fit. The Texas Rangers could be looking for a new closer if they transition Nefatli Feliz to the starting rotation.

Nathan told Newsday last month that the Mets are certainly on his list, though such a statement should be taken with a grain of salt. Free agents would be wise to avoid eliminating any clubs and potentially hurting their market.

In the end, Nathan could fit best right back in Minnesota. The financial commitment involved is the key to both sides, as always.
[h3]How the Sox address the rotation[/h3]
12:36PM ET

[h5]Boston Red Sox[/h5]

The Boston Red Sox do not appear to be hot on the trail of free agents Mark Buehrle or C.J. Wilson, at least not in the early stages of the free agent season, nor have they been mentioned prominently in the potential posting of Yu Darvisg, the latest star from Japan. They do have holes to fill in the starting rotation, however.

The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham reports that Alfredo Aceves could be moved to the rotation to help out at the back end and Nick Cafardo notes that the club may consider a similar transition for Daniel Bard.

The trade market could include right-hander Gavin Floyd or lefty John Danks of the Chicago White Sox as well as Los Angeles Dodgers' right-hander Chad Billingsley. Any of the three be targets for GM Ben Cherington. Danks is the best of the trio, though Floyd is signed long term.

Wandy Rodriguez, Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill may also be trade targets. Rodriguez is certain to be available while the two A's pitchers may only be attainable for a big price.

Boston's best options down on the farm aren't quite ready for the show. Right-hander Anthony Ranaudo finished 2011 in Class-A Salem and has a big-league ETA somewhere after the middle of 2012, depending on who is asked.
[h3]CBA deal this week?[/h3]
12:27PM ET

[h5]CBA talks[/h5]

UPDATE: The league could announce the new agreement this week, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com.

A source tells Rosenthal that the draft-related and free-agent compensation issues that have been holding up the deal are nearly a hurdle no more.

The GM meeting begin Tuesday in Milwaukee, which could interrupt the progress being made in CBA talks, but league sources suggest both sides are motivated to get something done before the end of the week.
UPDATE: Negotiations in baseball's stalled labor talks have taken "a step forward" this week, according to one source familiar with the discussions, reports ESPN.com's Jayson Stark. And a second source told ESPN.com it's possible a deal could be completed this week.

Stark continues: "However, another source described the chances of an agreement this week as only about 50-50, saying that the sides had made what appeared to be similar progress in the past, only to get stuck on other issues.

"Owners and players have been stalled for weeks over management's push for a hard slotting system for amateur draft picks. The players' union has adamantly resisted hard slotting, so the sides have been exploring alternatives based on 'luxury taxes' or other incentives designed to keep spending on the draft within more rigid limitations.

"The other major issue that is still unresolved is a change in compensation for premier free agents. The union is pressing for a new system that would either no longer require teams to give up first-round draft picks as compensation for signing a top free agent, or would like to reduce the number of players who would qualify as 'Type A' free agents.

"Club officials and agents both believe the uncertainty over those changes, and whether they would take effect this winter, has had an impact on the current free-agent market."

"It's not that unusual for things to develop slowly," said one prominent agent. "But I think the (labor uncertainty) is definitely having an effect. I think some teams just want to know a deal is in place before they start spending significant money."
As recently as a few weeks ago, the owners and the Players Association were making steady progress toward a new collective bargaining agreement. That momentum appeared to have stalled over Bud Selig's insistence on a hard slotting for bonuses paid to high draft picks, but there have been several tweets, including this one from Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports on Tuesday, that significant progress has been made on an agreement.

ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney, who wrote last month that it didn't appear that draft slotting would hold up a deal, wrote Tuesday that one of the important aspects of change in the new CBA is centered on draft pick compensation for Type-A free agents.

Hall of Famer Bill Madden wrote over the weekend that the commissioner remains deeply committed to the draft slotting process while the union views the system as a form of a salary cap.

With the chances of reaching a new deal by the time the old one expires in December now in question, Madden says the free agent market for big ticket players such as Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes could be "held hostage." Clubs will want to know the financial parameters of issues such as a luxury tax and free agent compensation before moving forward.
[h3]2B, SS options for Cardinals[/h3]
12:21PM ET

[h5]St. Louis Cardinals[/h5]


The St. Louis Cardinals have potential openings to fill at second base and shortstop, on top of the gaping hole at first base that they hope will be refilled by Albert Pujols. There are several options on the free agent market at both middle infield positions.

Cards' GM John Mozeliak, tweets Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, is projecting Daniel Descalso as the second baseman next season and "wouldn't mind" a double-play combo of Descalso and Tyler Greene.

The free agent market provides some veterans that make sense for the Cardinals, however, including potentially bringing back Rafael Furcal at shortstop. Furcal has expressed interest in returning to St. Louis in 2012.

Nick Punto could also be back on a free agent deal, depending on what else his market bares. Clint Barmes could also be a fit.

Veteran second baseman Mark Ellis could be considered as well, unless Mozeliak was not posturing in the least in his comments about Descalso's role in 2012.

The Cards may have to go cheap in some areas if they re-sign Pujols, since their payroll is stretched about as far as anyone expected already, and the bullpen and rotation may need a little tweaking this offseason.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Who plays center for Indians?[/h3]
12:13PM ET

[h5]Cleveland Indians[/h5]


The Cleveland Indians declined the $9 million option on Grady Sizemore and appear to be in the market for outfield help, as Kosuke Fukudome is also a free agent. It also appears that the clubs is not sold on Michael Brantley as the next everyday option in center, which may mean GM Chrios Antonetti is in the market for a centerfielder.

The free agent market is fairly dry, with such options as Coco Crisp, who much prefers to stay on the West Coast, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus, as well as several that project as fourth outfielders.

If the Indians are to add a legit center field option, it's likely to come via trade, where the likes of Denard Span or B.J. Upton could be available.

Brantley is likely the fallback option and the Indians also have Ezequiel Carrera to serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he can handle center defensively.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Impact of Carroll's arrival[/h3]
12:03PM ET

[h5]Jamey Carroll | Dodgers[/h5]


The Minnesota Twins have found their starting shortstop, tweets ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick, who reports the deal is simply pending a physical at this stage. Crasnick first reported the two sides were "closing in on a multiyear deal."
http://twitter.com/#!/jcrasnick/status/135089939196035072
The Atlanta Braves and Cleveland Indians were reportedly interest in Carroll, too, but the Indians don't have a starting to job to guarantee Carroll, and the Braves are looking for a one-year stop-gap to play in front of a prospect, Tyler Pastronicky.

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal tweets that Carroll's two-year deal with the Twins will be worth around $7 million guaranteed.

Carroll may have been the best shortstop option on the market after Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. Still remaining are Rafael Furcal, Nick Punto and Clint Barmes, among others, with clubs such as the Braves, Phillies and Cardinals with holes to fill at the position.

His signing in Minnesota, which is expected to be finalized soon, means Trevor Plouffe moves off the shortstop position. Tom Pelissero of 1500 ESPN tweets that GM Terry Ryan has Plouffe slated for outfield and DH work in 2012.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Update on Cespedes[/h3]
12:00PM ET

[h5]Yoennis Cespedes[/h5]


Yoenis Cespedes, who defected from Cuba and has been drawing interested from a number of clubs this month, may have to wait until January to be granted free agency by Major League Baseball, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain-Dealer.

The Detroit Tigers, reports Lynn Henning, have "strong" interest in Cespedes. Adding the Cuban star makes for an interesting outfield in Motown, at least if starts the 2012 season in the majors. The Cubs, reports Carrie Muskat, will have the 26-year-old in for a private workout soon.

Yoennis Cespedes, a centerfielder, is expected to be granted free agency at some point this offseason, and the New York Yankees could make a splash by going after him.

ESPN New York's Andrew Marchand explained Friday how Cespedes would make sense for the Yanks, despite a fully occupied outfield.

Baseball America's Ben Badler, reported the team had Cespedes in for a private workout Monday.

Cespedes' representatives, which include Adam Katz, are looking for a deal similar to the one the Cincinnati Reds gave left-hander Aroldis Chapman -- $30 million.

Juan C. Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel was the first to report that the Marlins are the favorites to land Cespedes, and Yahoo! Sports' Tim Brown broke down the full list of suitors, including the Cleveland Indians, Washington Nationals, Toronto Blue Jays, Philadelphia Phillies, Oakland Athletics and Pittsburgh Pirates.

There is some footage on Cespedes here and here.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Could SF deal Lincecum?[/h3]
11:57AM ET

[h5]Tim Lincecum | Giants[/h5]


The San Francisco Giants have among the best starting rotations in baseball, but Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com writes that the club may have to consider trading ace Tim Lincecum to add the necessary offensive pieces to compete moving forward.

They can try to sign Prince Fielder or Albert Pujols, or double up and try for Grady Sizemore and another bat such as Carlos Pena, but both are likely short-term fixes at best, and come with a lot of risk in their own right.

Trading Lincecum, who has to be dealt with financially this winter, anyway, as his two-year extension expired at the end of the season, will be a free agent after the 2013 season unless a long-term extension is agreed upon before then.

Lincecum could return a haul that helps the Giants for years. Perhaps the New York Yankees are a fit -- they could offer Jesus Montero as the base of a return package.

In the end the Giants could move Matt Cain, instead, though his value doesn't touch that of Lincecum, largely because he's due for free agency after 2012, and is considered a No. 2 starter.

SI.com's Jon Heyman tweeted Saturday that there is presently no evidence that the Giants will consider moving either pitcher, however.

- Jason A. Churchill

law_keith_30.jpg
[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
Pena can help, but ...
"Pena crushes right-handed pitching, getting on base and hitting for power, but he needs a right-handed platoon-mate to handle southpaws. He'll add a little value with his glove and everyone raves about his makeup, but the bottom line is that he's not a 162-game solution at first base -- he's just better than the other options on the market. If you don't need defense and are just looking for a DH, David Ortiz slots in here."
Click to expand...
http://[h3]Papi or an OF[/h3]
11:55AM ET

[h5]David Ortiz | Red Sox[/h5]


UPDATE: Red Sox GM Ben Cherington said Saturday that talks are ongoing between the club and their designated hitter, suggesting that something may get done between the two sides.

Ortiz could also fit in with the Tampa Bay Rays and any of the four teams in the American League West if he isn't headed back to Boston.

Cherington added that of the club retains Ortiz, they are unlikely to add an outfielder, which would eliminate the Sox from contention for free agent Carlos Beltran. Boston's right fielder would then likely be Ryan Kalish, Josh Reddick or a combination of both.

- Jason A. Churchill
With closer Jonathan Papelbon bolting Boston for the Philadelphia Phillies, the Red Sox could use some good news. Taking care of longtime DH David Ortiz could do the trick.

As Joe McDonald of ESPNBoston.com reported, new GM Ben Cherington has been in touch with Ortiz and his agent. "David knows we want him to be here," Cherington said. "We want him to be back with the Red Sox, and we want him in our lineup."

For his part, Ortiz has indicated he wants to re-sign with Boston, too. A deal could be done here sooner rather than later.

- Jason Catania

http://[h3]Cards offer to beat: 9/$210m[/h3]
11:53AM ET

[h5]Albert Pujols | Cardinals[/h5]


UPDATE: The offer to beat for Pujols appears to be the nine-year, $210 million offer reportedly submitted before the 2011 season, tweets SI.com's Jon Heyman. The Cardinals do not plan to greatly increase that offer, Heyman says.
I think we all assumed other clubs would at least look into the free agency of Albert Pujols, and the Miami Marlins, as they become Friday, are the first reported club to set up a meeting with Pujols and his agent, Dan Lozano, writes Matthew Leach of MLB.com. That meeting is expected to occur "within the next few days," and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reports Friday that the club's interest in the three-time MVP is legitimate.

The Marlins have also had talks with shortstop Jose Reyes and have been linked to lefties Mark Buehrle and C.J. Wilson and first baseman Prince Fielder. How much money the Fish can actually spend this winter remains to be seen but they are certainly getting their due diligence out of the way early.

Most analysts seem to believe Pujols ends up back in St. Louis, but that appears far from a sure thing. It's likely to come down to money and length of contract, of course, but Pujols is also likely to want to keep winning, as well.

ESPN.com's Jayson Stark assessed the market for Pujols and Fielder in his Rumbling and Grumblings column Thursday:

- Jason A. Churchill

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[h5]Jayson Stark[/h5]
How much for Albert?
"Rumblings surveyed a dozen executives from clubs that are unlikely to participate in this auction and asked them to predict A) how many years and dollars each player would get, and B) what team would give it to them. Here is what we found: The Pujols prognostications were fascinating. They ranged from 10 years, $300 million to one (mostly tongue-in-cheek) prediction of three years, $90 million. But otherwise, nobody forecast a deal shorter than seven years. And the average contract worked out to 8.5 years, at just over $28 million a year."
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http://[h3]Hot corner in Anaheim[/h3]
11:44AM ET

[h5]Mark Trumbo | Angels[/h5]


The Los Angeles Angels did not receive much production from their third baseman last season -- five players combined to bat .284/.354/.379 with seven home runs -- hence their considering moving Mark Trumbo across the diamond, as reported by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County-Register.

Trumbo, however, had a setback in his recovery from a stress fracture in his right foot and will need another month to heal, delaying his attempted defensive transition.

Such news could derail the thought altogether, or push the Angels and new GM Jerry DiPoto in another direction this winter.

Albert Callaspo and Maicer Izturis played the majority of games at third last season, but Callaspo could be a non-tender candidate after making $2 million in 2011. His salary for next season could approach the $4 million range.

Aramis Ramirez, the top free agent third baseman available this offseason, is not an option, DiPoto told ESPN Insider's Jim Bowden.

- Jason A. Churchill

http://[h3]Darvish not coming to states?[/h3]
11:43AM ET

[h5]Yu Darvish, RHP[/h5]

UPDATE: SI.com's Jon Heyman is hearing similar whispers surrounding the doubt on whether or not Darvish will be posted this winter.

It once seemed a sure thing, but if Darvish isn't to be posted the values of the rest of the free agent starting pitching market skyrockets.
We've discussed the reports that suggest the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers all have interest in right-hander Yu Darvish, if the ace decides to request to be posted by his team the Nippon Ham Fighters.

Darvish wrote in his personal blog last month that he has yet to make a decision, and the Yankees will not confirm they are set to make a bid if Darvish is indeed posted.

Jon Morosi of FOXSports.com writes Tuesday that the Fighters are not expected to make a decision on whether or not to post the right-hander until after the Japan Series, which does not begin for another few weeks.

That time gap could push clubs in other directions and limit the number of teams that bid aggressively on Darvish.

The Rangers may have just as big of a need in the rotation as any club in baseball if C.J. Wilson finds greener pastures elsewhere, and the club could use another frontline arm, anyway.

The Yankees have to deal the CC Sabathia situation first and foremost, and the Red Sox may be gunshy after their experience with Daisuke Matsuzaka.

We haven't heard much, if anything at all, on whether or not the Detroit Tigers or the Chicago Cubs have interest in Darvish, but they spend money and have a need in the rotation. The Reds don't figure to jump into such a bidding war, but the Washington Nationals scouted Darvish several times this season, tweets Amanda Comak.

ESPN Insider's Keith Law chimes in with his take on what Darvis brings to the table.

- Jason A. Churchill

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[h5]Keith Law[/h5]
No. 3 -- Yu Darvish, RHP
"Darvish will show the usual assortment of pitches, led by a 91-95 mph fastball that's been reported up to 97 this year, mixing it with a hard shuuto that looks like a two-seamer in the low 90s or upper 80s, a hard slider/cutter, a softer slider, a splitter, a straight changeup and a slow curveball. That's far more pitches than a typical MLB starter would use and probably too many for Darvish once he's here. He could strip down to the fastball, shuuto, one slider and a changeup or splitter, and be more effective because he's junked his worst offerings. He generates good arm speed through hip rotation, and despite slightly late pronation, his arm works reasonably cleanly and he repeats the delivery well. He is built like an ace, with ace stuff, but has been worked hard over the past few years. If he succeeds, he will be bucking the recent trend of Nippon Professional Baseball pitching imports who haven't lived up to their advance billings."
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[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
The favorite for Darvish
"There is no doubt that there is going to be a lot of play on Yu Darvish. Within the industry, the team that's considered to be the favorite going into the process is the Texas Rangers."
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The Cleveland Indians declined the $9 million option on Grady Sizemore and appear to be in the market for outfield help, as Kosuke Fukudome is also a free agent. It also appears that the clubs is not sold on Michael Brantley as the next everyday option in center, which may mean GM Chrios Antonetti is in the market for a centerfielder.

The free agent market is fairly dry, with such options as Coco Crisp, who much prefers to stay on the West Coast, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus, as well as several that project as fourth outfielders.

If the Indians are to add a legit center field option, it's likely to come via trade, where the likes of Denard Span or B.J. Upton could be available.

Brantley is likely the fallback option and the Indians also have Ezequiel Carrera to serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he can handle center defensively.
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The Cleveland Indians declined the $9 million option on Grady Sizemore and appear to be in the market for outfield help, as Kosuke Fukudome is also a free agent. It also appears that the clubs is not sold on Michael Brantley as the next everyday option in center, which may mean GM Chrios Antonetti is in the market for a centerfielder.

The free agent market is fairly dry, with such options as Coco Crisp, who much prefers to stay on the West Coast, Rick Ankiel and David DeJesus, as well as several that project as fourth outfielders.

If the Indians are to add a legit center field option, it's likely to come via trade, where the likes of Denard Span or B.J. Upton could be available.

Brantley is likely the fallback option and the Indians also have Ezequiel Carrera to serve as a fourth or fifth outfielder, and he can handle center defensively.
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I love that these trade rumors about Lincecum to the Yankees are always said to be centered around Jesus Montero. Jesus Montero. Yes. Him. Makes no sense what so ever. I love the Giants more than I love Lincecum. If trading him makes our team better now and in the future, I would not be opposed to it. But any package which has Jesus Montero as the "base of the package," should be an instant decline from SF. And I am a fan of Monteros. But for a two time Cy Young winner who is just entering his prime? The Yankees are going to have to come a lot harder than that.
 
I love that these trade rumors about Lincecum to the Yankees are always said to be centered around Jesus Montero. Jesus Montero. Yes. Him. Makes no sense what so ever. I love the Giants more than I love Lincecum. If trading him makes our team better now and in the future, I would not be opposed to it. But any package which has Jesus Montero as the "base of the package," should be an instant decline from SF. And I am a fan of Monteros. But for a two time Cy Young winner who is just entering his prime? The Yankees are going to have to come a lot harder than that.
 
They only mention him as the base because he'd be the best player involved. Trust, it'd be him plus their two best arms and another player.
 
They only mention him as the base because he'd be the best player involved. Trust, it'd be him plus their two best arms and another player.
 
Instant decline? I don't know about that, because such a trade would surely involve 2 of Nova/Betances/Banuelos, and then maybe another mid level prospect. As for Montero, you seem to be undervaluing him as a top hitting prospect - his bat would play anywhere in any park, and I assume he'd move to 1B in such a scenario. * > Aubrey Huff
 
Instant decline? I don't know about that, because such a trade would surely involve 2 of Nova/Betances/Banuelos, and then maybe another mid level prospect. As for Montero, you seem to be undervaluing him as a top hitting prospect - his bat would play anywhere in any park, and I assume he'd move to 1B in such a scenario. * > Aubrey Huff
 
The Rookie of the Year omen.

Spoiler [+]
When the 2011 Rookie of the Year awards are announced this afternoon, you're likely going to hear some hand-wringing over the BBWAA's selections. Co-favorites Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson in the American League did well in old-school metrics such as wins and ERA, but nearly every team in baseball would prefer Michael Pineda among the AL's crop of young arms who debuted this year. And although they didn't play enough to rack up the stats necessary to receive votes, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley all look like future stars.

In the NL, Craig Kimbrel's dominance out of the bullpen seems likely to be rewarded, but teammates Brandon Beachy and Freddie Freeman both showed this year that they could be contributors on a more frequent basis and are likely to provide more future value than even a quality closer.

However, this year looks to be an aberration. Historically, the BBWAA has done exceptionally well in identifying not only players who had terrific rookie seasons but ones who were likely to be fantastic players for years to come.

To look at how well the voters had done in spotting the game's true best rookies, I looked at the career performances of the award winners from 1990 to 2009. This 20-year window gives us 40 winners, and although we don't know exactly how the careers of the recent winners will turn out, we at least have several years of data after the voting to show whether they've continued to live up to the hype.

Of the 40 awards, 30 have gone to position players and 10 to pitchers. The position player list is remarkably impressive, including seven players who have amassed 50-plus Wins Above Replacement in their careers. Of those seven, five are nearly mortal locks to end their careers with enshrinement in Cooperstown (Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Ichiro Suzuki), and Scott Rolen and Carlos Beltran likely will inspire interesting debates when they come up for election.

The list of potential future Hall of Famers grows when we look at some of the previous winners who are still in their primes but have had enough early-career success that talking about their potential chances for induction doesn't seem premature. Included in this group are current stars Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, who are all among the best in the game at their position and have been for several years. Even if they don't sustain their greatness, it's fair to say their performance that earned them the award wasn't a fluke.

In fact, if you look at the career numbers of the 30 position players who won the award between 1990 and 2009, you'll see that, as a group, the normal season for these players is All-Star caliber. Even including the performances of busts such as Angel Berroa, Pat Listach and Bob Hamelin, ROY winners posted an average of 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances -- about one full season's worth of playing time -- in their careers. For comparison, Prince Fielder has averaged 3.5 WAR per 600 PA in his career, and 2.0 WAR over a full season is considered to be about league average.

The story isn't quite as bright on the pitching side. Hideo Nomo, Kerry Wood and Dontrelle Willis all failed to live up to their early-career promise, and Jason Jennings regressed immediately after winning the award. In fact, the only pitcher to win the award and go on on to turn into a true ace is Justin Verlander. However, although most didn't go on to sustained periods of greatness, those who won the awards were still mostly quality performers when they were on the hill. The group averaged 3.1 WAR per 180 innings pitched, still well above average overall.

How do those totals compare with the guys who just missed? To find out, I also ran the career numbers for the players who finished second in the voting in those same years. Of the 26 position players who were runners-up for the award, only Chipper Jones is a lock for the Hall of Fame, although Manny Ramirez had a Cooperstown-worthy career before he got suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Still, the overall production of the second tier is noticeably lower than that of the award winners, with the position players posting 3.1 WAR per 600 PA in their careers.

For pitchers, though, the trend doesn't hold, and you actually would have been better off with the pitcher who didn't win the award than the one who did. The runner-ups include the likes of CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez and Jonathan Papelbon. And the guys who finished second have racked up more than twice as many innings pitched in the majors as the guys who finished first, all while posting a similar 2.9 WAR per 180 IP.

Overall, recent history suggests that voters have had an easier time identifying which position players were truly going to be stars going forward than pitchers, but, as the players' total career numbers show, they've done a pretty good job selecting candidates who lived up to the award in most years. The epic busts stand out for a reason: They are the exception, not the norm.

A new era for Epstein & Cashman.

Spoiler [+]
RANDOLPH CENTER, Vt. -- There was a short break in Saturday's baseball roundtable here at Vermont Technical College, a half-hour when Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, Neal Huntington and Boston Red Sox scout Galen Carr retreated to a room for a quick dinner. It was at that time that Epstein mentioned that he would be glad to finally talk trades with Cashman.

For almost a decade, Epstein and Cashman couldn't really deal with each other, given their Hatfield-McCoy relationship as general managers of the Red Sox and New York Yankees, respectively. There was one time, Epstein recalled, when he suggested a swap of Shea Hillenbrand for a young first baseman named Nick Johnson -- a deal that would have been a total steal for the Red Sox, at the time -- and Cashman never took that seriously. But now that Epstein has taken over the Chicago Cubs, as president of baseball operations, he and Cashman can talk earnestly. And on paper, they might have a future match on someone like Matt Garza.

But as they took questions on the dais, in Epstein's first appearance in New England since taking the job in Chicago, the general managers were asked a lot about past trades, and it was evident that regret resides as deeply as the pride over successes. Huntington talked about the Jason Bay deal with the Red Sox and how it hasn't worked out -- and on the other hand, he likes how his trade for Jose Tabata and others with the Yankees has turned out better. Cashman recalled how, after the 1998 season and a strong season from Scott Brosius, he decided to trade a young third baseman named Mike Lowell for three hard-throwing pitchers, and how rival executives raved about the great arms he got in return -- and of course, the deal turned out badly for the Yankees.

Epstein's regret over failed deals, he indicated, was built on those times when he and his staff got away from the proper evaluation process. Epstein recounted some events early in the 2006 season: Josh Bard was struggling to catch knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, and so the Red Sox rushed to reacquire catcher Doug Mirabelli, getting him on a plane so that he could catch a game on a Friday night at Fenway Park. There wasn't really a proper process, as Epstein remembered, and in the end, Mirabelli hit .193 in 59 games for the Red Sox -- and the young pitcher that Boston gave up for him, Cla Meredith, contributed some strong relief for the San Diego Padres.

VTC was packed, and the guests of honor poked fun of themselves; Cashman joking that he's working with a therapist in the aftermath of his decision to sign another three-year deal and Epstein reciting, with precise detail, the Red Sox's doomed lead in Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series. They talked about concerns over the time of game and the changing demographics of those who follow baseball -- fans who are older and older -- and the issue of players' safety in Venezuela. They wouldn't touch the question of how the Hall of Fame voters should handle the candidacy of players suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs.

Afterward, many in the room stayed around for more baseball talk, to chat with Huntington and get their picture taken with Cashman and the Yankees' 2000 championship trophy -- even some Red Sox fans.

Alex Speier has more details about the event here. Epstein says he will never try to fake how deep his ties are to the Red Sox. Epstein says he and Cashman have always had a good relationship.

There are still five days in the charity auction on BattingForVermont.com, but it appears that about $175,000 will be raised for Vermont farmers who were devastated by Hurricane Irene through the generosity of many teams, players, agents and, on Saturday, through the time donated by Carr, Cashman, Epstein and Huntington.

Every time I saw someone wearing a Red Sox or Pittsburgh Pirates or Yankees or Cubs jersey, I asked if they had gotten a chance to shake hands and ask questions of the baseball officials who came to this town of 400 people, and every time, the answer was yes. That's pretty cool.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• At the time Aaron Hill was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in late August, he was hitting .224 with six homers and an OPS of .584, and during the next six weeks, he hit .315. On Sunday, the Diamondbacks agreed to sign the second baseman to a two-year, $11 million deal.

The trade to Arizona revitalized Hill, writes Nick Piecoro.

• Mike Matheny will be introduced Monday as manager, and it's a fascinating decision by the St. Louis Cardinals. He has never managed before, and there will inevitably be situations for which he is not fully prepared -- some in-game decisions and some challenges that come out of his clubhouse. But on the other hand, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak knows Matheny well and has his own sense of how the former catcher will react and adapt and evolve.

There is no credible way to predict how this will turn out, writes Bernie Miklasz. Agree 100 percent with Bernie on this point within his article: The hiring of Matheny will have zero impact on the Albert Pujols negotiations. Agents and free agents get advice from the union on whether to accept contract offers, and rest assured, Matheny's name would never come up when the pros and cons of possible deals are weighed.

From Elias: Matheny will be the sixth first-time major league manager to take over a defending World Series champion. The others were Bill Carrigan (1913 Red Sox), Jack Barry (1917 Red Sox), Bob O'Farrell (1927 Cardinals), Red Schoendienst (1965 Cardinals) and Bill Virdon (1972 Pirates). Carrigan was a midseason replacement for Jake Stahl. (We intentionally omitted **** Hower, who managed one game after Billy Martin was fired by the Yankees in 1978, before Bob Lemon was hired for the remainder of the season.)

• At 41 years old, Matheny will be the youngest active manager in the big leagues, ahead of Manny Acta (42) of the Cleveland Indians, Eric Wedge (43) of the Seattle Mariners and Robin Ventura (44) of the Chicago White Sox.

• The Baseball Writers' Association will begin announcing its postseason awards Monday. My own picks for the Rookie of the Year Award in each league were Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays and Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves. Hellickson led AL rookies in a lot of categories, Roger Mooney writes.

Eric Hosmer will learn Monday whether he will win the AL award, writes Bob Dutton. If the criterion for Rookie of the Year were written differently -- such as, "Vote for the rookie who has the brightest future" -- Hosmer would win this unanimously. Folks with other teams love the guy, to the point where he might rank among the top dozen players in the majors in trade value as of today.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The front office movers and shakers are gathering in Milwaukee, writes Tom Haudricourt.

2. Dale Sveum is a finalist for the Red Sox managerial job, writes Peter Abraham. Boston's familiarity with him is a significant factor in his emergence as a leading candidate. Managing is a burning desire for another candidate, Gene Lamont.

3. The original plan was for there to be two 15-team leagues, writes Zachary Levine.

4. It's unclear whether Joe Saunders has a future with the Diamondbacks.

5. There are early signs of the Colorado Rockies being more aggressive in the market, writes Troy Renck.

6. The Los Angeles Dodgers took an initial run at Ryan Doumit.

7. Miami Marlins president David Samson spoke about the team's offseason approach.

8. There are things that Ben Cherington would like to get done at the GM meetings, writes Nick Cafardo.

9. The Philadelphia Phillies will be looking for answers in Milwaukee.

10. The Indians are looking for offense, writes Paul Hoynes.

11. Ken Williams doesn't have a lot of payroll flexibility, so he has to make his selections carefully, writes Mark Gonzales. John Danks is attracting a lot of trade interest. The White Sox have an extraordinary predicament this offseason, because they have some contracts that are crushing their payroll -- those of Jake Peavy, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn -- which is why they are expected to move Carlos Quentin and may be compelled to trade Danks or Gavin Floyd. If Peavy, Rios and Dunn don't produce in the years ahead, the White Sox are looking at massive dead money on their roster.

Money owed to Peavy, Dunn and Rios:

2012: $43 million
2013: $31.5 million
2014: $27.5 million

12. Terry Ryan will head to the GM meetings.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brendan Ryan is still awaiting clearance to swing.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Wilson Ramos said his rescue was right out of a movie. Jesus Montero was overcome with emotion when he heard about Ramos, he told Roger Rubin.

• Alex Rodriguez is determined to rebound, he tells Joel Sherman.

• Jorge Posada is selling his Tampa-area home.

• Katie Sharp and others offer some analysis on the early free-agent signings.

Phillies face tough call on Hamels.

Spoiler [+]
The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up Roy Halladay to a long-term deal, and Cliff Lee, and Ryan Howard, and now Jonathan Papelbon. But there doesn't appear to be any conversations between the Phillies and left-hander Cole Hamels, who turns 28 next month and will be eligible for free agency next fall.

fan_a_colehts_288.jpg

AP Photo/Matt SlocumIf Cole Hamels is looking long-term, he may be forced to look elsewhere.

So very soon, the Phillies will have to make a decision, among three possible outcomes:

1. The Phillies could sign Hamels to a one-year contract for 2012 and prepare themselves for the real possibility that he will walk away next fall as a free agent, with little to no return for his value -- especially in light of the fact that first-round draft pick compensation may be negotiated out of existence in the forthcoming labor agreement.If Hamels stays healthy and productive next season -- and he's coming off the best year of his career right now, after posting a 2.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP -- then he will be in position to command offers from the whole parade of big-budget teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, etc.

If the Phillies keep Hamels into next season, his presence would help them win in 2012, but they would run significant risk of watching a homegrown, talented pitcher walk away with almost nothing to show for it (other than their 2008 championship rings.)

2. Knowing this, the Phillies could theoretically try to take Hamels off the board and lock him up to a long-term deal that would cost them upwards of $20 million a year, which is what his market value would be next fall. Because Hamels is so close to free agency, his market value probably is somewhere between the five-year, $80 million deal that Justin Verlander signed when two years removed from free agency, and the $137.5 million deal that Johan Santana got from the Mets when he was just nine months from free agency. Rival executives are very skeptical that the Phillies want to invest in Hamels. "I don't see them doing it," said one high-ranking NL official. "They would've already made their move if they had wanted to keep him long-term -- and now it'll cost them extra if they tried."

3. The Phillies could do the same thing with Hamels that they did with Cliff Lee prior to the 2010 season -- trade him this winter, for the best possible return. Look, if they move him now, they would get about 90 cents on the dollar in trade value (presuming that Hamels would work out a long-term deal with his new team). If they wait until next summer, they might get about 80 cents on the dollar in trade value, but it's extremely unlikely that the Phillies -- built to win now -- would consider moving a frontline pitcher in the middle of a season. If they wait until next fall and see Hamels walk away, all they'd get in return would be draft picks.

Some officials believe that the Phillies' best course of action would be to move Hamels this winter if they know now they don't want to pay him $20 million a year. "That would allow them to get back a couple of prospects," said one high-ranking talent evaluator. "But it all depends on what their intentions are, and what their interest level is in bringing him back."

There are a small handful of teams that would be willing to swap prospects for Hamels and also committing the long-term deal they would want in place before a completion of the trade. The Yankees would be a possible fit, because they would have the prospects to trade, and the need -- if the Phillies were even willing to move Hamels.

The Phillies have been aggressive so far this fall, locking down Jonathan Papelbon and Jim Thome, and opening conversations with Michael Cuddyer. At some point, Hamels's status is bound to move to the top of the Phillies' docket, and the team will have to make a choice.

Dodgers close on Kemp deal.

Spoiler [+]
The Dodgers, in the midst of a difficult transition period and sale, may have trouble getting approval to sign a big-ticket free agent. That doesn’t mean they can’t affect change in the free agent market place. As the team engages their 27-year-old once-maligned center fielder in extension discussions, they might be preparing do just that. Will the rumored numbers that will keep Matt Kemp off the market — eight years, $160 million — count as an asset for the team in the future?

It does seem like new sabermetrician and Dodgers’ General Manager Ned Colletti has his hands tied with the ongoing bankruptcy sale of the team, but outgoing owner Frank McCourt told his GM that he can bid on any free agent he sees fit — even Prince Fielder. Either way, though, the team payroll has been hovering around $100 million since 2006. Once 2012 arbitration numbers are added in to the combined ten million dollars the team will pay Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez in 2012, they’d be at $92 million already. That probably doesn’t leave room for Fielder.

One of the years in this deal will replace Kemp’s final year of arbitration. Using that year as a guidepost, the deal might be considered neutral. Matt Swartz’s arbitration predictor has Kemp being awarded $16.3 million in 2012. The arb system sort of rewards players at about 80% of their ‘market value’ in their last year of arbitration. That would be $20.3 million, or the average annual rate that seems to be in the cards.

But we don’t all have the same ideas about market value, and the arbitration system would be a flawed guidepost at best. By the value metrics on this site, Kemp’s 2011 breakout season may have been ‘worth’ twice as much as the AAV on his new deal. By those same metrics, his 2010 season was worth only about $2 million in all.

The difference between those two seasons was not all defense.

Sure, Kemp’s defense is a big part of the discussion. His 2010 season in center field was really bad on many levels. Ultimate Zone Rating rated him as the worst defender in the league relative to his position (-27.5 UZR/150) that year, but that stat wasn’t lone. Every defensive metric — from DRS (-15) to the fans (-3) — agreed that he was bad in 2010. Finally, his team’s management made public statements about how bad his glove was.
“If this is the last day of the season and people are voting for the Gold Glove, his name is not even on the ballot. It’s a shame that he would go from where he was a year ago to revert back to when the ball goes up in the air and you’re not sure where it’s going, or if it’s going to get caught.
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The Rookie of the Year omen.

Spoiler [+]
When the 2011 Rookie of the Year awards are announced this afternoon, you're likely going to hear some hand-wringing over the BBWAA's selections. Co-favorites Ivan Nova and Jeremy Hellickson in the American League did well in old-school metrics such as wins and ERA, but nearly every team in baseball would prefer Michael Pineda among the AL's crop of young arms who debuted this year. And although they didn't play enough to rack up the stats necessary to receive votes, Brett Lawrie, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley all look like future stars.

In the NL, Craig Kimbrel's dominance out of the bullpen seems likely to be rewarded, but teammates Brandon Beachy and Freddie Freeman both showed this year that they could be contributors on a more frequent basis and are likely to provide more future value than even a quality closer.

However, this year looks to be an aberration. Historically, the BBWAA has done exceptionally well in identifying not only players who had terrific rookie seasons but ones who were likely to be fantastic players for years to come.

To look at how well the voters had done in spotting the game's true best rookies, I looked at the career performances of the award winners from 1990 to 2009. This 20-year window gives us 40 winners, and although we don't know exactly how the careers of the recent winners will turn out, we at least have several years of data after the voting to show whether they've continued to live up to the hype.

Of the 40 awards, 30 have gone to position players and 10 to pitchers. The position player list is remarkably impressive, including seven players who have amassed 50-plus Wins Above Replacement in their careers. Of those seven, five are nearly mortal locks to end their careers with enshrinement in Cooperstown (Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter, Jeff Bagwell, Mike Piazza, Ichiro Suzuki), and Scott Rolen and Carlos Beltran likely will inspire interesting debates when they come up for election.

The list of potential future Hall of Famers grows when we look at some of the previous winners who are still in their primes but have had enough early-career success that talking about their potential chances for induction doesn't seem premature. Included in this group are current stars Evan Longoria, Ryan Braun, Hanley Ramirez and Dustin Pedroia, who are all among the best in the game at their position and have been for several years. Even if they don't sustain their greatness, it's fair to say their performance that earned them the award wasn't a fluke.

In fact, if you look at the career numbers of the 30 position players who won the award between 1990 and 2009, you'll see that, as a group, the normal season for these players is All-Star caliber. Even including the performances of busts such as Angel Berroa, Pat Listach and Bob Hamelin, ROY winners posted an average of 3.7 WAR per 600 plate appearances -- about one full season's worth of playing time -- in their careers. For comparison, Prince Fielder has averaged 3.5 WAR per 600 PA in his career, and 2.0 WAR over a full season is considered to be about league average.

The story isn't quite as bright on the pitching side. Hideo Nomo, Kerry Wood and Dontrelle Willis all failed to live up to their early-career promise, and Jason Jennings regressed immediately after winning the award. In fact, the only pitcher to win the award and go on on to turn into a true ace is Justin Verlander. However, although most didn't go on to sustained periods of greatness, those who won the awards were still mostly quality performers when they were on the hill. The group averaged 3.1 WAR per 180 innings pitched, still well above average overall.

How do those totals compare with the guys who just missed? To find out, I also ran the career numbers for the players who finished second in the voting in those same years. Of the 26 position players who were runners-up for the award, only Chipper Jones is a lock for the Hall of Fame, although Manny Ramirez had a Cooperstown-worthy career before he got suspended for using performance-enhancing drugs. Still, the overall production of the second tier is noticeably lower than that of the award winners, with the position players posting 3.1 WAR per 600 PA in their careers.

For pitchers, though, the trend doesn't hold, and you actually would have been better off with the pitcher who didn't win the award than the one who did. The runner-ups include the likes of CC Sabathia, Roy Oswalt, Freddy Garcia, Livan Hernandez and Jonathan Papelbon. And the guys who finished second have racked up more than twice as many innings pitched in the majors as the guys who finished first, all while posting a similar 2.9 WAR per 180 IP.

Overall, recent history suggests that voters have had an easier time identifying which position players were truly going to be stars going forward than pitchers, but, as the players' total career numbers show, they've done a pretty good job selecting candidates who lived up to the award in most years. The epic busts stand out for a reason: They are the exception, not the norm.

A new era for Epstein & Cashman.

Spoiler [+]
RANDOLPH CENTER, Vt. -- There was a short break in Saturday's baseball roundtable here at Vermont Technical College, a half-hour when Brian Cashman, Theo Epstein, Neal Huntington and Boston Red Sox scout Galen Carr retreated to a room for a quick dinner. It was at that time that Epstein mentioned that he would be glad to finally talk trades with Cashman.

For almost a decade, Epstein and Cashman couldn't really deal with each other, given their Hatfield-McCoy relationship as general managers of the Red Sox and New York Yankees, respectively. There was one time, Epstein recalled, when he suggested a swap of Shea Hillenbrand for a young first baseman named Nick Johnson -- a deal that would have been a total steal for the Red Sox, at the time -- and Cashman never took that seriously. But now that Epstein has taken over the Chicago Cubs, as president of baseball operations, he and Cashman can talk earnestly. And on paper, they might have a future match on someone like Matt Garza.

But as they took questions on the dais, in Epstein's first appearance in New England since taking the job in Chicago, the general managers were asked a lot about past trades, and it was evident that regret resides as deeply as the pride over successes. Huntington talked about the Jason Bay deal with the Red Sox and how it hasn't worked out -- and on the other hand, he likes how his trade for Jose Tabata and others with the Yankees has turned out better. Cashman recalled how, after the 1998 season and a strong season from Scott Brosius, he decided to trade a young third baseman named Mike Lowell for three hard-throwing pitchers, and how rival executives raved about the great arms he got in return -- and of course, the deal turned out badly for the Yankees.

Epstein's regret over failed deals, he indicated, was built on those times when he and his staff got away from the proper evaluation process. Epstein recounted some events early in the 2006 season: Josh Bard was struggling to catch knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, and so the Red Sox rushed to reacquire catcher Doug Mirabelli, getting him on a plane so that he could catch a game on a Friday night at Fenway Park. There wasn't really a proper process, as Epstein remembered, and in the end, Mirabelli hit .193 in 59 games for the Red Sox -- and the young pitcher that Boston gave up for him, Cla Meredith, contributed some strong relief for the San Diego Padres.

VTC was packed, and the guests of honor poked fun of themselves; Cashman joking that he's working with a therapist in the aftermath of his decision to sign another three-year deal and Epstein reciting, with precise detail, the Red Sox's doomed lead in Game 7 of the 2003 American League Championship Series. They talked about concerns over the time of game and the changing demographics of those who follow baseball -- fans who are older and older -- and the issue of players' safety in Venezuela. They wouldn't touch the question of how the Hall of Fame voters should handle the candidacy of players suspected of using performance-enhancing drugs.

Afterward, many in the room stayed around for more baseball talk, to chat with Huntington and get their picture taken with Cashman and the Yankees' 2000 championship trophy -- even some Red Sox fans.

Alex Speier has more details about the event here. Epstein says he will never try to fake how deep his ties are to the Red Sox. Epstein says he and Cashman have always had a good relationship.

There are still five days in the charity auction on BattingForVermont.com, but it appears that about $175,000 will be raised for Vermont farmers who were devastated by Hurricane Irene through the generosity of many teams, players, agents and, on Saturday, through the time donated by Carr, Cashman, Epstein and Huntington.

Every time I saw someone wearing a Red Sox or Pittsburgh Pirates or Yankees or Cubs jersey, I asked if they had gotten a chance to shake hands and ask questions of the baseball officials who came to this town of 400 people, and every time, the answer was yes. That's pretty cool.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• At the time Aaron Hill was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks in late August, he was hitting .224 with six homers and an OPS of .584, and during the next six weeks, he hit .315. On Sunday, the Diamondbacks agreed to sign the second baseman to a two-year, $11 million deal.

The trade to Arizona revitalized Hill, writes Nick Piecoro.

• Mike Matheny will be introduced Monday as manager, and it's a fascinating decision by the St. Louis Cardinals. He has never managed before, and there will inevitably be situations for which he is not fully prepared -- some in-game decisions and some challenges that come out of his clubhouse. But on the other hand, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak knows Matheny well and has his own sense of how the former catcher will react and adapt and evolve.

There is no credible way to predict how this will turn out, writes Bernie Miklasz. Agree 100 percent with Bernie on this point within his article: The hiring of Matheny will have zero impact on the Albert Pujols negotiations. Agents and free agents get advice from the union on whether to accept contract offers, and rest assured, Matheny's name would never come up when the pros and cons of possible deals are weighed.

From Elias: Matheny will be the sixth first-time major league manager to take over a defending World Series champion. The others were Bill Carrigan (1913 Red Sox), Jack Barry (1917 Red Sox), Bob O'Farrell (1927 Cardinals), Red Schoendienst (1965 Cardinals) and Bill Virdon (1972 Pirates). Carrigan was a midseason replacement for Jake Stahl. (We intentionally omitted **** Hower, who managed one game after Billy Martin was fired by the Yankees in 1978, before Bob Lemon was hired for the remainder of the season.)

• At 41 years old, Matheny will be the youngest active manager in the big leagues, ahead of Manny Acta (42) of the Cleveland Indians, Eric Wedge (43) of the Seattle Mariners and Robin Ventura (44) of the Chicago White Sox.

• The Baseball Writers' Association will begin announcing its postseason awards Monday. My own picks for the Rookie of the Year Award in each league were Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays and Craig Kimbrel of the Atlanta Braves. Hellickson led AL rookies in a lot of categories, Roger Mooney writes.

Eric Hosmer will learn Monday whether he will win the AL award, writes Bob Dutton. If the criterion for Rookie of the Year were written differently -- such as, "Vote for the rookie who has the brightest future" -- Hosmer would win this unanimously. Folks with other teams love the guy, to the point where he might rank among the top dozen players in the majors in trade value as of today.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The front office movers and shakers are gathering in Milwaukee, writes Tom Haudricourt.

2. Dale Sveum is a finalist for the Red Sox managerial job, writes Peter Abraham. Boston's familiarity with him is a significant factor in his emergence as a leading candidate. Managing is a burning desire for another candidate, Gene Lamont.

3. The original plan was for there to be two 15-team leagues, writes Zachary Levine.

4. It's unclear whether Joe Saunders has a future with the Diamondbacks.

5. There are early signs of the Colorado Rockies being more aggressive in the market, writes Troy Renck.

6. The Los Angeles Dodgers took an initial run at Ryan Doumit.

7. Miami Marlins president David Samson spoke about the team's offseason approach.

8. There are things that Ben Cherington would like to get done at the GM meetings, writes Nick Cafardo.

9. The Philadelphia Phillies will be looking for answers in Milwaukee.

10. The Indians are looking for offense, writes Paul Hoynes.

11. Ken Williams doesn't have a lot of payroll flexibility, so he has to make his selections carefully, writes Mark Gonzales. John Danks is attracting a lot of trade interest. The White Sox have an extraordinary predicament this offseason, because they have some contracts that are crushing their payroll -- those of Jake Peavy, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn -- which is why they are expected to move Carlos Quentin and may be compelled to trade Danks or Gavin Floyd. If Peavy, Rios and Dunn don't produce in the years ahead, the White Sox are looking at massive dead money on their roster.

Money owed to Peavy, Dunn and Rios:

2012: $43 million
2013: $31.5 million
2014: $27.5 million

12. Terry Ryan will head to the GM meetings.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Brendan Ryan is still awaiting clearance to swing.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Wilson Ramos said his rescue was right out of a movie. Jesus Montero was overcome with emotion when he heard about Ramos, he told Roger Rubin.

• Alex Rodriguez is determined to rebound, he tells Joel Sherman.

• Jorge Posada is selling his Tampa-area home.

• Katie Sharp and others offer some analysis on the early free-agent signings.

Phillies face tough call on Hamels.

Spoiler [+]
The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up Roy Halladay to a long-term deal, and Cliff Lee, and Ryan Howard, and now Jonathan Papelbon. But there doesn't appear to be any conversations between the Phillies and left-hander Cole Hamels, who turns 28 next month and will be eligible for free agency next fall.

fan_a_colehts_288.jpg

AP Photo/Matt SlocumIf Cole Hamels is looking long-term, he may be forced to look elsewhere.

So very soon, the Phillies will have to make a decision, among three possible outcomes:

1. The Phillies could sign Hamels to a one-year contract for 2012 and prepare themselves for the real possibility that he will walk away next fall as a free agent, with little to no return for his value -- especially in light of the fact that first-round draft pick compensation may be negotiated out of existence in the forthcoming labor agreement.If Hamels stays healthy and productive next season -- and he's coming off the best year of his career right now, after posting a 2.79 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP -- then he will be in position to command offers from the whole parade of big-budget teams, like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Giants, Dodgers, Rangers, etc.

If the Phillies keep Hamels into next season, his presence would help them win in 2012, but they would run significant risk of watching a homegrown, talented pitcher walk away with almost nothing to show for it (other than their 2008 championship rings.)

2. Knowing this, the Phillies could theoretically try to take Hamels off the board and lock him up to a long-term deal that would cost them upwards of $20 million a year, which is what his market value would be next fall. Because Hamels is so close to free agency, his market value probably is somewhere between the five-year, $80 million deal that Justin Verlander signed when two years removed from free agency, and the $137.5 million deal that Johan Santana got from the Mets when he was just nine months from free agency. Rival executives are very skeptical that the Phillies want to invest in Hamels. "I don't see them doing it," said one high-ranking NL official. "They would've already made their move if they had wanted to keep him long-term -- and now it'll cost them extra if they tried."

3. The Phillies could do the same thing with Hamels that they did with Cliff Lee prior to the 2010 season -- trade him this winter, for the best possible return. Look, if they move him now, they would get about 90 cents on the dollar in trade value (presuming that Hamels would work out a long-term deal with his new team). If they wait until next summer, they might get about 80 cents on the dollar in trade value, but it's extremely unlikely that the Phillies -- built to win now -- would consider moving a frontline pitcher in the middle of a season. If they wait until next fall and see Hamels walk away, all they'd get in return would be draft picks.

Some officials believe that the Phillies' best course of action would be to move Hamels this winter if they know now they don't want to pay him $20 million a year. "That would allow them to get back a couple of prospects," said one high-ranking talent evaluator. "But it all depends on what their intentions are, and what their interest level is in bringing him back."

There are a small handful of teams that would be willing to swap prospects for Hamels and also committing the long-term deal they would want in place before a completion of the trade. The Yankees would be a possible fit, because they would have the prospects to trade, and the need -- if the Phillies were even willing to move Hamels.

The Phillies have been aggressive so far this fall, locking down Jonathan Papelbon and Jim Thome, and opening conversations with Michael Cuddyer. At some point, Hamels's status is bound to move to the top of the Phillies' docket, and the team will have to make a choice.

Dodgers close on Kemp deal.

Spoiler [+]
The Dodgers, in the midst of a difficult transition period and sale, may have trouble getting approval to sign a big-ticket free agent. That doesn’t mean they can’t affect change in the free agent market place. As the team engages their 27-year-old once-maligned center fielder in extension discussions, they might be preparing do just that. Will the rumored numbers that will keep Matt Kemp off the market — eight years, $160 million — count as an asset for the team in the future?

It does seem like new sabermetrician and Dodgers’ General Manager Ned Colletti has his hands tied with the ongoing bankruptcy sale of the team, but outgoing owner Frank McCourt told his GM that he can bid on any free agent he sees fit — even Prince Fielder. Either way, though, the team payroll has been hovering around $100 million since 2006. Once 2012 arbitration numbers are added in to the combined ten million dollars the team will pay Andruw Jones and Manny Ramirez in 2012, they’d be at $92 million already. That probably doesn’t leave room for Fielder.

One of the years in this deal will replace Kemp’s final year of arbitration. Using that year as a guidepost, the deal might be considered neutral. Matt Swartz’s arbitration predictor has Kemp being awarded $16.3 million in 2012. The arb system sort of rewards players at about 80% of their ‘market value’ in their last year of arbitration. That would be $20.3 million, or the average annual rate that seems to be in the cards.

But we don’t all have the same ideas about market value, and the arbitration system would be a flawed guidepost at best. By the value metrics on this site, Kemp’s 2011 breakout season may have been ‘worth’ twice as much as the AAV on his new deal. By those same metrics, his 2010 season was worth only about $2 million in all.

The difference between those two seasons was not all defense.

Sure, Kemp’s defense is a big part of the discussion. His 2010 season in center field was really bad on many levels. Ultimate Zone Rating rated him as the worst defender in the league relative to his position (-27.5 UZR/150) that year, but that stat wasn’t lone. Every defensive metric — from DRS (-15) to the fans (-3) — agreed that he was bad in 2010. Finally, his team’s management made public statements about how bad his glove was.
“If this is the last day of the season and people are voting for the Gold Glove, his name is not even on the ballot. It’s a shame that he would go from where he was a year ago to revert back to when the ball goes up in the air and you’re not sure where it’s going, or if it’s going to get caught.
Click to expand...
 
[table][tr][th="col"]Player[/th] [th="col"]Team[/th] [th="col"]1st[/th] [th="col"]2nd[/th] [th="col"]3rd[/th] [th="col"]Points[/th] [/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td] [td]Rays[/td] [td]17[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]102[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td] [td]Angels[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]63[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td] [td]Royals[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]38[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td] [td]Yankees[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]30[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td] [td]Mariners[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]3[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]11[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td] [td]Mariners[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]6[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td] [td]Rays[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td] [td]Angels[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]1[/td][/tr][/table]
laugh.gif


I don't know where to begin.
 
[table][tr][th="col"]Player[/th] [th="col"]Team[/th] [th="col"]1st[/th] [th="col"]2nd[/th] [th="col"]3rd[/th] [th="col"]Points[/th] [/tr][tr][td]Jeremy Hellickson[/td] [td]Rays[/td] [td]17[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]102[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Mark Trumbo[/td] [td]Angels[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]11[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]63[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Eric Hosmer[/td] [td]Royals[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]6[/td] [td]38[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Ivan Nova[/td] [td]Yankees[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]5[/td] [td]10[/td] [td]30[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Michael Pineda[/td] [td]Mariners[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]3[/td] [td]2[/td] [td]11[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Dustin Ackley[/td] [td]Mariners[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]6[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Desmond Jennings[/td] [td]Rays[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]1[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Jordan Walden[/td] [td]Angels[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]
[/td] [td]1[/td] [td]1[/td][/tr][/table]
laugh.gif


I don't know where to begin.
 
laugh.gif
I'd start with Trumbo and his sub .300 OBP finishing second.
$160 mil for 8 years of Kemp? Best bit of business LAD has done in ages. 
 
laugh.gif
I'd start with Trumbo and his sub .300 OBP finishing second.
$160 mil for 8 years of Kemp? Best bit of business LAD has done in ages. 
 
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