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2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
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- 11,588
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Posted 11/18/11 at 1:00 PM
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
- 11,588
- 837
- Joined
- Apr 15, 2005
Posted 11/18/11 at 1:00 PM
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
- 9,530
- 91
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2003
I saw he preview for this the other day and couldn't help but
- 9,530
- 91
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2003
I saw he preview for this the other day and couldn't help but
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,553
- 2,064
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2005
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- 6,553
- 2,064
- Joined
- Apr 5, 2005
- 19,960
- 17,753
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2007
Originally Posted by RaWeX05
Posted 11/18/11 at 1:00 PM
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
Anna Benson.
Not surprised.
- 19,960
- 17,753
- Joined
- Jan 19, 2007
Originally Posted by RaWeX05
Posted 11/18/11 at 1:00 PM
[h4]Just when you thought reality TV couldn't get any worse[/h4]
Grace, Villone, Benson, Kendall, Lenz
From the warped minds that brought you shows like "Basketball Wives," VH1 presents - wait for it - "Baseball Wives," set to premiere November 30.
We're pretty sure they should have named the program "Baseball Ex-Wives," though, because Tanya Grace is no longer with Mark Grace and Chantell Kendall is no longer with Jason Kendall.
But accuracy is probably not the top priority of this show.
Anna Benson.
Not surprised.
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Rumors in STL is that Albert will only be making trips to Kansas City (Have no idea why), California and Texas...........NOT Chicago
\\
- 10,206
- 3,278
- Joined
- Dec 9, 2001
Rumors in STL is that Albert will only be making trips to Kansas City (Have no idea why), California and Texas...........NOT Chicago
\\
Shortstops have leverage this winter.
Consequences of Astros move.
The new CBA's impact.
Spoiler [+]
Clint Barmes will be 33 years old in March, which is one of the reasons why you wouldn't usually think he'd be getting a two-year deal from the Pittsburgh Pirates, or any other team. Here are some of the other reasons:
His career on-base percentage is .302. Barmes tends to strike out a lot -- 88 times in 446 at-bats last season. He's not a big extra-base-hit guy (39 last season) despite playing his home games in Houston last year.
But there are two things that work in favor of Barmes. First, among all shortstops who played at least 700 innings at the position, he ranked fifth in UZR, and even if you acknowledge that there is no absolutely sound defensive metric, that standing for Barmes does confirm the general perception that he is pretty good at catching the ball.
And second, Barmes is a free agent at a time when there are many teams looking for a shortstop. In fact, the shortstop market is like a game of musical chairs with 10 participants and only four chairs.
The Miami Marlins have an incumbent shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, and they're trying to sign Jose Reyes. The New York Mets would like to keep Reyes but probably won't pay him, so they'll need a shortstop. The San Francisco Giants' priority is to add an outfielder, but they're having conversations about shortstops. The St. Louis Cardinals are focused on re-signing Albert Pujols, but their second priority is a shortstop.
The Milwaukee Brewers might secretly prefer somebody better than Yuniesky Betancourt, but might re-sign him because the shortstop market is so thin. The Atlanta Braves need a shortstop and reportedly have told the New York Yankees they like Eduardo Nunez, but Derek Jeter will be 38 years old this summer and they would probably have to be overwhelmed to part with a shortstop.
The Houston Astros need a shortstop. The Tampa Bay Rays don't know who their full-time shortstop will be. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't know when Stephen Drew will be back, which is why they moved quickly to lock up two guys who can play shortstop, John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist.
The Philadelphia Phillies are built to win now, with their money invested in a lot of older players, and in a vacuum, they might not be thrilled about giving Jimmy Rollins a long-term contract. But as soon as Reyes signs, Rollins will be the best shortstop on the market, and he is reliable defensively, and with such a thin shortstop market, he probably is going to get a pretty good contract.
After all, Barmes did: two years and a reported $11 million from the Pirates. The price seems steep until you realize that Pittsburgh just grabbed one of the few decent defensive shortstops available, and that when the music stops, there will be three or four teams left without a shortstop.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are team executives who are furious with the details in the new labor agreement, and believe that Major League Baseball sold out the small-market and midmarket teams in the way the new draft structure works. "All this does is kick the can down the road," said one GM. "It doesn't solve problems, and it makes some problems worse."
• Jim Crane is coming up with a plan to please fans, writes Steve Campbell.
Within the story, there is word on Crane's plans for the front office:
His career on-base percentage is .302. Barmes tends to strike out a lot -- 88 times in 446 at-bats last season. He's not a big extra-base-hit guy (39 last season) despite playing his home games in Houston last year.
But there are two things that work in favor of Barmes. First, among all shortstops who played at least 700 innings at the position, he ranked fifth in UZR, and even if you acknowledge that there is no absolutely sound defensive metric, that standing for Barmes does confirm the general perception that he is pretty good at catching the ball.
And second, Barmes is a free agent at a time when there are many teams looking for a shortstop. In fact, the shortstop market is like a game of musical chairs with 10 participants and only four chairs.
The Miami Marlins have an incumbent shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, and they're trying to sign Jose Reyes. The New York Mets would like to keep Reyes but probably won't pay him, so they'll need a shortstop. The San Francisco Giants' priority is to add an outfielder, but they're having conversations about shortstops. The St. Louis Cardinals are focused on re-signing Albert Pujols, but their second priority is a shortstop.
The Milwaukee Brewers might secretly prefer somebody better than Yuniesky Betancourt, but might re-sign him because the shortstop market is so thin. The Atlanta Braves need a shortstop and reportedly have told the New York Yankees they like Eduardo Nunez, but Derek Jeter will be 38 years old this summer and they would probably have to be overwhelmed to part with a shortstop.
The Houston Astros need a shortstop. The Tampa Bay Rays don't know who their full-time shortstop will be. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't know when Stephen Drew will be back, which is why they moved quickly to lock up two guys who can play shortstop, John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist.
The Philadelphia Phillies are built to win now, with their money invested in a lot of older players, and in a vacuum, they might not be thrilled about giving Jimmy Rollins a long-term contract. But as soon as Reyes signs, Rollins will be the best shortstop on the market, and he is reliable defensively, and with such a thin shortstop market, he probably is going to get a pretty good contract.
After all, Barmes did: two years and a reported $11 million from the Pirates. The price seems steep until you realize that Pittsburgh just grabbed one of the few decent defensive shortstops available, and that when the music stops, there will be three or four teams left without a shortstop.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are team executives who are furious with the details in the new labor agreement, and believe that Major League Baseball sold out the small-market and midmarket teams in the way the new draft structure works. "All this does is kick the can down the road," said one GM. "It doesn't solve problems, and it makes some problems worse."
• Jim Crane is coming up with a plan to please fans, writes Steve Campbell.
Within the story, there is word on Crane's plans for the front office:
- Another priority will be meeting with the leaders on baseball operations side, president Tal Smith and general manager Ed Wade. Crane is prepared to make a swift decision on their futures.
"I think right after Thanksgiving, you'll see us make a few moves," Crane said.
Consequences of Astros move.
Spoiler [+]
With the reports that the Houston Astros are moving to the American League in 2013, now's probably a good time to take a look at the consequences of the move. A reconfiguration of a division results in more than the Astros simply playing different teams and more frequent interleague play.
In the short-term, a rebuilding Houston moving to the American League actually makes the leagues more comparable in terms of quality. The AL has a .533 winning percentage in interleague play the last three years. Remove the Astros and their 13-32 record against the AL over that period from the equation, and it moves the needle a third of the way to even, leaving the AL at .522 against the National League.
As the rebuilding has gone full-bore, that possible effect increases. If you assume that Houston's .354 winning percentage against the NL would have held up in interleague play against the NL, the AL with Houston would have been down to 127-125 against the NL. That's the closest the two leagues have been since the AL went 127-125 in interleague play in 2004.
A rebuilding Astros team in the AL West also has the potential to affect the wild card races significantly, as things stand. For 2011, I took the actual winning percentage and schedule for the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals and reconfigured their opponents based on what their schedule would look like with the Astros having switched leagues for the year. In the case of the Angels, the resulting estimate has them gaining three wins to finish 89-73 and, while still missing the playoffs, making the final games of the year even more exciting.
In the case of the Cardinals, they were 10-5 (.667) against the Astros and 80-67 (.544) against everyone else. If St. Louis loses those games against the Astros and picks up games against other teams, that's just enough that they likely miss the playoffs and another team just finished celebrating their World Series win.
On the league level, while it's hard to put an exact figure on how many wins it costs, the regular interleague play also increases the challenge on roster construction for National League teams. American League designated hitters hit .266/.341/.430 overall in 2011 and it's already very hard for NL teams to bring in bats of that caliber (between the level of an average corner outfielder and an average first baseman) for a handful of games a year.
Now, with interleague play scattered throughout the season rather than in two large chunks, it becomes more difficult to bring in a Wily Mo Pena, a Triple-A slugger than can hit for a few weeks, due to option year considerations. Plus, there will be even more games against the opposite league. Interleague play throughout the season really favors AL teams.
For the Astros, the move increases the challenge of their rebuilding, as the asset they are perhaps missing the most is an impact hitter. Now, with the move to the AL, they're starting yet another hitter in the hole. Houston already finished 13th in the NL in runs, and they got 905 plate appearances from Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, who were their two best hitters and are no longer with the team.
To put together a competitive offense, the Astros now have to find another .770 OPS hitter. Carlos Lee managed it, in a surprisingly productive season, but he's not going to be in Houston in 2013.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I projected every first baseman and corner outfielder in the Astros system through 2016. For 2013-2016, only Brett Wallace and J.D. Martinez even project to have any seasons in which they hit league-average for a first baseman or corner outfielder (one for Wallace, two for Martinez). Having to find an extra hitter from the team's current limited organizational assets means the rebuilding will take even longer. And that's before considering the rest of the holes on the team.
In the long-term, there's nothing inherently wrong with the Astros that will keep them from eventually competing in the AL West. But in the short-term, a simple change in division for the worst team in baseball could have a large effect on what happens in 2013 or 2014.
In the short-term, a rebuilding Houston moving to the American League actually makes the leagues more comparable in terms of quality. The AL has a .533 winning percentage in interleague play the last three years. Remove the Astros and their 13-32 record against the AL over that period from the equation, and it moves the needle a third of the way to even, leaving the AL at .522 against the National League.
As the rebuilding has gone full-bore, that possible effect increases. If you assume that Houston's .354 winning percentage against the NL would have held up in interleague play against the NL, the AL with Houston would have been down to 127-125 against the NL. That's the closest the two leagues have been since the AL went 127-125 in interleague play in 2004.
A rebuilding Astros team in the AL West also has the potential to affect the wild card races significantly, as things stand. For 2011, I took the actual winning percentage and schedule for the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals and reconfigured their opponents based on what their schedule would look like with the Astros having switched leagues for the year. In the case of the Angels, the resulting estimate has them gaining three wins to finish 89-73 and, while still missing the playoffs, making the final games of the year even more exciting.
In the case of the Cardinals, they were 10-5 (.667) against the Astros and 80-67 (.544) against everyone else. If St. Louis loses those games against the Astros and picks up games against other teams, that's just enough that they likely miss the playoffs and another team just finished celebrating their World Series win.
On the league level, while it's hard to put an exact figure on how many wins it costs, the regular interleague play also increases the challenge on roster construction for National League teams. American League designated hitters hit .266/.341/.430 overall in 2011 and it's already very hard for NL teams to bring in bats of that caliber (between the level of an average corner outfielder and an average first baseman) for a handful of games a year.
Now, with interleague play scattered throughout the season rather than in two large chunks, it becomes more difficult to bring in a Wily Mo Pena, a Triple-A slugger than can hit for a few weeks, due to option year considerations. Plus, there will be even more games against the opposite league. Interleague play throughout the season really favors AL teams.
For the Astros, the move increases the challenge of their rebuilding, as the asset they are perhaps missing the most is an impact hitter. Now, with the move to the AL, they're starting yet another hitter in the hole. Houston already finished 13th in the NL in runs, and they got 905 plate appearances from Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, who were their two best hitters and are no longer with the team.
To put together a competitive offense, the Astros now have to find another .770 OPS hitter. Carlos Lee managed it, in a surprisingly productive season, but he's not going to be in Houston in 2013.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I projected every first baseman and corner outfielder in the Astros system through 2016. For 2013-2016, only Brett Wallace and J.D. Martinez even project to have any seasons in which they hit league-average for a first baseman or corner outfielder (one for Wallace, two for Martinez). Having to find an extra hitter from the team's current limited organizational assets means the rebuilding will take even longer. And that's before considering the rest of the holes on the team.
In the long-term, there's nothing inherently wrong with the Astros that will keep them from eventually competing in the AL West. But in the short-term, a simple change in division for the worst team in baseball could have a large effect on what happens in 2013 or 2014.
The new CBA's impact.
Spoiler [+]
MLB owners and players have just about sealed their newest covenant, which will alter various parts of the sport’s landscape.
Though we were able to obtain only a portion of the new collective bargaining agreement, it should be noted that this was the most professionally negotiated agreement I have seen in my time within baseball. I’ve written this before, but having experienced the frosty climate of past labor negotiations, commissioner Bud Selig, MLB executive vice president Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner deserve credit for keeping the entire process peaceful and productive.
Tuesday’s announcement will shed more light on the new deal. It essentially is a refinement of the current system that has offered the sport so much success during the last decade. Here’s my take on each of the known parts. In italics is what was reported:
Two new wild-card teams, including a one-game sudden-death playoff format
The addition of another wild-card spot is great for baseball, as more small and mid-market teams have more opportunities to make the postseason. The one-game playoff is exciting, and there needed to be more incentive to winning the division than winning a wild-card berth. Essentially, there was little benefit to winning the division.
Houston Astros move to the AL in 2013
As for the Astros moving to the American League, it’s good there is an even number of teams in both leagues and in all divisions. It promotes a new natural rivalry between the Astros and Rangers.
Substantial changes in scheduling
When it comes to the new schedule, we should see more details on Tuesday, but Phillies president David Montgomery is reportedly overseeing that process.
Increase in the minimum salaries (from $480K to $500K) during the life of deal
The raise for first-year players is deserved, as many of these players coming out of high school and college then into the minor leagues aren't making much. So the reward for making it to the major leagues should be significant and a raise is completely justified.
Changes in arbitration eligibility
A larger number of players -- known as Super Two players -- will be in a position to earn arbitration eligibility with less than three years of major league service. Previously, players had to have two years and 86 days of service in the big leagues and be in the top 17 percent in total service in their class to become a Super Two player. That number will increase to more than 20 percent.
The change to the Super Two qualification will allow more players to qualify. Obviously, this was a players' association victory. It in effect moves up the date that the Mike Stantons and Stephen Strasburgs of the world will be called up from June to May. Often, under the current rule, teams would keep these stars down in the minor leagues to reduce their service time.
Player rankings eliminated, replaced with “qualifying offer
Though we were able to obtain only a portion of the new collective bargaining agreement, it should be noted that this was the most professionally negotiated agreement I have seen in my time within baseball. I’ve written this before, but having experienced the frosty climate of past labor negotiations, commissioner Bud Selig, MLB executive vice president Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner deserve credit for keeping the entire process peaceful and productive.
Tuesday’s announcement will shed more light on the new deal. It essentially is a refinement of the current system that has offered the sport so much success during the last decade. Here’s my take on each of the known parts. In italics is what was reported:
Two new wild-card teams, including a one-game sudden-death playoff format
The addition of another wild-card spot is great for baseball, as more small and mid-market teams have more opportunities to make the postseason. The one-game playoff is exciting, and there needed to be more incentive to winning the division than winning a wild-card berth. Essentially, there was little benefit to winning the division.
Houston Astros move to the AL in 2013
As for the Astros moving to the American League, it’s good there is an even number of teams in both leagues and in all divisions. It promotes a new natural rivalry between the Astros and Rangers.
Substantial changes in scheduling
When it comes to the new schedule, we should see more details on Tuesday, but Phillies president David Montgomery is reportedly overseeing that process.
Increase in the minimum salaries (from $480K to $500K) during the life of deal
The raise for first-year players is deserved, as many of these players coming out of high school and college then into the minor leagues aren't making much. So the reward for making it to the major leagues should be significant and a raise is completely justified.
Changes in arbitration eligibility
A larger number of players -- known as Super Two players -- will be in a position to earn arbitration eligibility with less than three years of major league service. Previously, players had to have two years and 86 days of service in the big leagues and be in the top 17 percent in total service in their class to become a Super Two player. That number will increase to more than 20 percent.
The change to the Super Two qualification will allow more players to qualify. Obviously, this was a players' association victory. It in effect moves up the date that the Mike Stantons and Stephen Strasburgs of the world will be called up from June to May. Often, under the current rule, teams would keep these stars down in the minor leagues to reduce their service time.
Player rankings eliminated, replaced with “qualifying offer
Shortstops have leverage this winter.
Consequences of Astros move.
The new CBA's impact.
Spoiler [+]
Clint Barmes will be 33 years old in March, which is one of the reasons why you wouldn't usually think he'd be getting a two-year deal from the Pittsburgh Pirates, or any other team. Here are some of the other reasons:
His career on-base percentage is .302. Barmes tends to strike out a lot -- 88 times in 446 at-bats last season. He's not a big extra-base-hit guy (39 last season) despite playing his home games in Houston last year.
But there are two things that work in favor of Barmes. First, among all shortstops who played at least 700 innings at the position, he ranked fifth in UZR, and even if you acknowledge that there is no absolutely sound defensive metric, that standing for Barmes does confirm the general perception that he is pretty good at catching the ball.
And second, Barmes is a free agent at a time when there are many teams looking for a shortstop. In fact, the shortstop market is like a game of musical chairs with 10 participants and only four chairs.
The Miami Marlins have an incumbent shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, and they're trying to sign Jose Reyes. The New York Mets would like to keep Reyes but probably won't pay him, so they'll need a shortstop. The San Francisco Giants' priority is to add an outfielder, but they're having conversations about shortstops. The St. Louis Cardinals are focused on re-signing Albert Pujols, but their second priority is a shortstop.
The Milwaukee Brewers might secretly prefer somebody better than Yuniesky Betancourt, but might re-sign him because the shortstop market is so thin. The Atlanta Braves need a shortstop and reportedly have told the New York Yankees they like Eduardo Nunez, but Derek Jeter will be 38 years old this summer and they would probably have to be overwhelmed to part with a shortstop.
The Houston Astros need a shortstop. The Tampa Bay Rays don't know who their full-time shortstop will be. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't know when Stephen Drew will be back, which is why they moved quickly to lock up two guys who can play shortstop, John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist.
The Philadelphia Phillies are built to win now, with their money invested in a lot of older players, and in a vacuum, they might not be thrilled about giving Jimmy Rollins a long-term contract. But as soon as Reyes signs, Rollins will be the best shortstop on the market, and he is reliable defensively, and with such a thin shortstop market, he probably is going to get a pretty good contract.
After all, Barmes did: two years and a reported $11 million from the Pirates. The price seems steep until you realize that Pittsburgh just grabbed one of the few decent defensive shortstops available, and that when the music stops, there will be three or four teams left without a shortstop.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are team executives who are furious with the details in the new labor agreement, and believe that Major League Baseball sold out the small-market and midmarket teams in the way the new draft structure works. "All this does is kick the can down the road," said one GM. "It doesn't solve problems, and it makes some problems worse."
• Jim Crane is coming up with a plan to please fans, writes Steve Campbell.
Within the story, there is word on Crane's plans for the front office:
His career on-base percentage is .302. Barmes tends to strike out a lot -- 88 times in 446 at-bats last season. He's not a big extra-base-hit guy (39 last season) despite playing his home games in Houston last year.
But there are two things that work in favor of Barmes. First, among all shortstops who played at least 700 innings at the position, he ranked fifth in UZR, and even if you acknowledge that there is no absolutely sound defensive metric, that standing for Barmes does confirm the general perception that he is pretty good at catching the ball.
And second, Barmes is a free agent at a time when there are many teams looking for a shortstop. In fact, the shortstop market is like a game of musical chairs with 10 participants and only four chairs.
The Miami Marlins have an incumbent shortstop, Hanley Ramirez, and they're trying to sign Jose Reyes. The New York Mets would like to keep Reyes but probably won't pay him, so they'll need a shortstop. The San Francisco Giants' priority is to add an outfielder, but they're having conversations about shortstops. The St. Louis Cardinals are focused on re-signing Albert Pujols, but their second priority is a shortstop.
The Milwaukee Brewers might secretly prefer somebody better than Yuniesky Betancourt, but might re-sign him because the shortstop market is so thin. The Atlanta Braves need a shortstop and reportedly have told the New York Yankees they like Eduardo Nunez, but Derek Jeter will be 38 years old this summer and they would probably have to be overwhelmed to part with a shortstop.
The Houston Astros need a shortstop. The Tampa Bay Rays don't know who their full-time shortstop will be. The Arizona Diamondbacks don't know when Stephen Drew will be back, which is why they moved quickly to lock up two guys who can play shortstop, John McDonald and Willie Bloomquist.
The Philadelphia Phillies are built to win now, with their money invested in a lot of older players, and in a vacuum, they might not be thrilled about giving Jimmy Rollins a long-term contract. But as soon as Reyes signs, Rollins will be the best shortstop on the market, and he is reliable defensively, and with such a thin shortstop market, he probably is going to get a pretty good contract.
After all, Barmes did: two years and a reported $11 million from the Pirates. The price seems steep until you realize that Pittsburgh just grabbed one of the few decent defensive shortstops available, and that when the music stops, there will be three or four teams left without a shortstop.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• There are team executives who are furious with the details in the new labor agreement, and believe that Major League Baseball sold out the small-market and midmarket teams in the way the new draft structure works. "All this does is kick the can down the road," said one GM. "It doesn't solve problems, and it makes some problems worse."
• Jim Crane is coming up with a plan to please fans, writes Steve Campbell.
Within the story, there is word on Crane's plans for the front office:
- Another priority will be meeting with the leaders on baseball operations side, president Tal Smith and general manager Ed Wade. Crane is prepared to make a swift decision on their futures.
"I think right after Thanksgiving, you'll see us make a few moves," Crane said.
Consequences of Astros move.
Spoiler [+]
With the reports that the Houston Astros are moving to the American League in 2013, now's probably a good time to take a look at the consequences of the move. A reconfiguration of a division results in more than the Astros simply playing different teams and more frequent interleague play.
In the short-term, a rebuilding Houston moving to the American League actually makes the leagues more comparable in terms of quality. The AL has a .533 winning percentage in interleague play the last three years. Remove the Astros and their 13-32 record against the AL over that period from the equation, and it moves the needle a third of the way to even, leaving the AL at .522 against the National League.
As the rebuilding has gone full-bore, that possible effect increases. If you assume that Houston's .354 winning percentage against the NL would have held up in interleague play against the NL, the AL with Houston would have been down to 127-125 against the NL. That's the closest the two leagues have been since the AL went 127-125 in interleague play in 2004.
A rebuilding Astros team in the AL West also has the potential to affect the wild card races significantly, as things stand. For 2011, I took the actual winning percentage and schedule for the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals and reconfigured their opponents based on what their schedule would look like with the Astros having switched leagues for the year. In the case of the Angels, the resulting estimate has them gaining three wins to finish 89-73 and, while still missing the playoffs, making the final games of the year even more exciting.
In the case of the Cardinals, they were 10-5 (.667) against the Astros and 80-67 (.544) against everyone else. If St. Louis loses those games against the Astros and picks up games against other teams, that's just enough that they likely miss the playoffs and another team just finished celebrating their World Series win.
On the league level, while it's hard to put an exact figure on how many wins it costs, the regular interleague play also increases the challenge on roster construction for National League teams. American League designated hitters hit .266/.341/.430 overall in 2011 and it's already very hard for NL teams to bring in bats of that caliber (between the level of an average corner outfielder and an average first baseman) for a handful of games a year.
Now, with interleague play scattered throughout the season rather than in two large chunks, it becomes more difficult to bring in a Wily Mo Pena, a Triple-A slugger than can hit for a few weeks, due to option year considerations. Plus, there will be even more games against the opposite league. Interleague play throughout the season really favors AL teams.
For the Astros, the move increases the challenge of their rebuilding, as the asset they are perhaps missing the most is an impact hitter. Now, with the move to the AL, they're starting yet another hitter in the hole. Houston already finished 13th in the NL in runs, and they got 905 plate appearances from Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, who were their two best hitters and are no longer with the team.
To put together a competitive offense, the Astros now have to find another .770 OPS hitter. Carlos Lee managed it, in a surprisingly productive season, but he's not going to be in Houston in 2013.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I projected every first baseman and corner outfielder in the Astros system through 2016. For 2013-2016, only Brett Wallace and J.D. Martinez even project to have any seasons in which they hit league-average for a first baseman or corner outfielder (one for Wallace, two for Martinez). Having to find an extra hitter from the team's current limited organizational assets means the rebuilding will take even longer. And that's before considering the rest of the holes on the team.
In the long-term, there's nothing inherently wrong with the Astros that will keep them from eventually competing in the AL West. But in the short-term, a simple change in division for the worst team in baseball could have a large effect on what happens in 2013 or 2014.
In the short-term, a rebuilding Houston moving to the American League actually makes the leagues more comparable in terms of quality. The AL has a .533 winning percentage in interleague play the last three years. Remove the Astros and their 13-32 record against the AL over that period from the equation, and it moves the needle a third of the way to even, leaving the AL at .522 against the National League.
As the rebuilding has gone full-bore, that possible effect increases. If you assume that Houston's .354 winning percentage against the NL would have held up in interleague play against the NL, the AL with Houston would have been down to 127-125 against the NL. That's the closest the two leagues have been since the AL went 127-125 in interleague play in 2004.
A rebuilding Astros team in the AL West also has the potential to affect the wild card races significantly, as things stand. For 2011, I took the actual winning percentage and schedule for the Los Angeles Angels and St. Louis Cardinals and reconfigured their opponents based on what their schedule would look like with the Astros having switched leagues for the year. In the case of the Angels, the resulting estimate has them gaining three wins to finish 89-73 and, while still missing the playoffs, making the final games of the year even more exciting.
In the case of the Cardinals, they were 10-5 (.667) against the Astros and 80-67 (.544) against everyone else. If St. Louis loses those games against the Astros and picks up games against other teams, that's just enough that they likely miss the playoffs and another team just finished celebrating their World Series win.
On the league level, while it's hard to put an exact figure on how many wins it costs, the regular interleague play also increases the challenge on roster construction for National League teams. American League designated hitters hit .266/.341/.430 overall in 2011 and it's already very hard for NL teams to bring in bats of that caliber (between the level of an average corner outfielder and an average first baseman) for a handful of games a year.
Now, with interleague play scattered throughout the season rather than in two large chunks, it becomes more difficult to bring in a Wily Mo Pena, a Triple-A slugger than can hit for a few weeks, due to option year considerations. Plus, there will be even more games against the opposite league. Interleague play throughout the season really favors AL teams.
For the Astros, the move increases the challenge of their rebuilding, as the asset they are perhaps missing the most is an impact hitter. Now, with the move to the AL, they're starting yet another hitter in the hole. Houston already finished 13th in the NL in runs, and they got 905 plate appearances from Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, who were their two best hitters and are no longer with the team.
To put together a competitive offense, the Astros now have to find another .770 OPS hitter. Carlos Lee managed it, in a surprisingly productive season, but he's not going to be in Houston in 2013.
Using the ZiPS projection system, I projected every first baseman and corner outfielder in the Astros system through 2016. For 2013-2016, only Brett Wallace and J.D. Martinez even project to have any seasons in which they hit league-average for a first baseman or corner outfielder (one for Wallace, two for Martinez). Having to find an extra hitter from the team's current limited organizational assets means the rebuilding will take even longer. And that's before considering the rest of the holes on the team.
In the long-term, there's nothing inherently wrong with the Astros that will keep them from eventually competing in the AL West. But in the short-term, a simple change in division for the worst team in baseball could have a large effect on what happens in 2013 or 2014.
The new CBA's impact.
Spoiler [+]
MLB owners and players have just about sealed their newest covenant, which will alter various parts of the sport’s landscape.
Though we were able to obtain only a portion of the new collective bargaining agreement, it should be noted that this was the most professionally negotiated agreement I have seen in my time within baseball. I’ve written this before, but having experienced the frosty climate of past labor negotiations, commissioner Bud Selig, MLB executive vice president Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner deserve credit for keeping the entire process peaceful and productive.
Tuesday’s announcement will shed more light on the new deal. It essentially is a refinement of the current system that has offered the sport so much success during the last decade. Here’s my take on each of the known parts. In italics is what was reported:
Two new wild-card teams, including a one-game sudden-death playoff format
The addition of another wild-card spot is great for baseball, as more small and mid-market teams have more opportunities to make the postseason. The one-game playoff is exciting, and there needed to be more incentive to winning the division than winning a wild-card berth. Essentially, there was little benefit to winning the division.
Houston Astros move to the AL in 2013
As for the Astros moving to the American League, it’s good there is an even number of teams in both leagues and in all divisions. It promotes a new natural rivalry between the Astros and Rangers.
Substantial changes in scheduling
When it comes to the new schedule, we should see more details on Tuesday, but Phillies president David Montgomery is reportedly overseeing that process.
Increase in the minimum salaries (from $480K to $500K) during the life of deal
The raise for first-year players is deserved, as many of these players coming out of high school and college then into the minor leagues aren't making much. So the reward for making it to the major leagues should be significant and a raise is completely justified.
Changes in arbitration eligibility
A larger number of players -- known as Super Two players -- will be in a position to earn arbitration eligibility with less than three years of major league service. Previously, players had to have two years and 86 days of service in the big leagues and be in the top 17 percent in total service in their class to become a Super Two player. That number will increase to more than 20 percent.
The change to the Super Two qualification will allow more players to qualify. Obviously, this was a players' association victory. It in effect moves up the date that the Mike Stantons and Stephen Strasburgs of the world will be called up from June to May. Often, under the current rule, teams would keep these stars down in the minor leagues to reduce their service time.
Player rankings eliminated, replaced with “qualifying offer
Though we were able to obtain only a portion of the new collective bargaining agreement, it should be noted that this was the most professionally negotiated agreement I have seen in my time within baseball. I’ve written this before, but having experienced the frosty climate of past labor negotiations, commissioner Bud Selig, MLB executive vice president Rob Manfred and MLBPA executive director Michael Weiner deserve credit for keeping the entire process peaceful and productive.
Tuesday’s announcement will shed more light on the new deal. It essentially is a refinement of the current system that has offered the sport so much success during the last decade. Here’s my take on each of the known parts. In italics is what was reported:
Two new wild-card teams, including a one-game sudden-death playoff format
The addition of another wild-card spot is great for baseball, as more small and mid-market teams have more opportunities to make the postseason. The one-game playoff is exciting, and there needed to be more incentive to winning the division than winning a wild-card berth. Essentially, there was little benefit to winning the division.
Houston Astros move to the AL in 2013
As for the Astros moving to the American League, it’s good there is an even number of teams in both leagues and in all divisions. It promotes a new natural rivalry between the Astros and Rangers.
Substantial changes in scheduling
When it comes to the new schedule, we should see more details on Tuesday, but Phillies president David Montgomery is reportedly overseeing that process.
Increase in the minimum salaries (from $480K to $500K) during the life of deal
The raise for first-year players is deserved, as many of these players coming out of high school and college then into the minor leagues aren't making much. So the reward for making it to the major leagues should be significant and a raise is completely justified.
Changes in arbitration eligibility
A larger number of players -- known as Super Two players -- will be in a position to earn arbitration eligibility with less than three years of major league service. Previously, players had to have two years and 86 days of service in the big leagues and be in the top 17 percent in total service in their class to become a Super Two player. That number will increase to more than 20 percent.
The change to the Super Two qualification will allow more players to qualify. Obviously, this was a players' association victory. It in effect moves up the date that the Mike Stantons and Stephen Strasburgs of the world will be called up from June to May. Often, under the current rule, teams would keep these stars down in the minor leagues to reduce their service time.
Player rankings eliminated, replaced with “qualifying offer
Ryan Doumit, Twins ink one year deal.
Projecting park effects: The Marlins' new stadium.
Spoiler [+]
Minnesota Twins interim GM Terry Ryan fired a second free agency salvo Friday as the club inked C-1B-RF Ryan Doumit to a one-year, $3 million deal. The deal, which is pending a physical scheduled for next week per Pioneer Press Twins reporter John Shipley, also includes unspecified performance-based incentives. Jerry Crasnick had tweeted earlier Friday that the former Pittsburgh Pirate was choosing between two teams, with the Seattle Mariners apparently drawing the short straw in the Doumit derby.
Since taking over the helm from Bill Smith just over a week ago, TR (too many Ryans to keep straight here) has been more active on the free agent market than in the past, as he officially inked infielder Jamey Carroll on Wednesday and had been linked to Doumit and Josh Willingham – both Matt Sosnick clients – as well a number of other free agents. The scaled-back budget doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrence to TR; after all, if expenditures settle in near the $100 million mark, that would still be nearly $30 million more than he ever had to work with during his first go-round with the club.
It’s an encouraging development for fans of a team desperate for good news following arguably the worst season in Twins history.
Doumit certainly had whittled his choices down to two clubs which could use his skill set. Dave Cameron noted that if the M’s had inked Doumit, he’d have immediately become one of the club’s best offensive players. Similarly, Doumit fits well within the Twins needs, as the team desperately showed it needed depth at the corners in 2011. That’s unlikely to change given the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and the space that’s currently assigned to Trevor Plouffe. Whether or not Doumit, who has only averaged 311 plate appearances per season, is the proper fit is the $3 million question.
Though I like the move for the Twins overall, let’s first consider that this isn’t a player without flaws. For one, he’s yet to eclipse the 500 plate appearance mark in his seven-year career, in part due to injuries but also to platoon situations (.798/.718 OPS platoon split). For a team that spent the most time on the disabled list league-wide last season, this has to be a worry. He also isn’t particularly adept defensively, as he grades out negatively in pretty much every defensive measure, including a glut of passed balls and only a 25 percent throw-out rate for attempted base thieves. Certainly some of that can fall on the pitchers, but I’ve yet to see a glowing scouting report on Doumit’s defense. This may be covered up with regular time in the DH role, which is also an open spot on the Twins roster with Jim Thome completely out of the picture and Jason Kubel seemingly on the outs as well. In this instance, at least a repeat of his .830 OPS from 2011 would be paramount, lest the Twins want to employ a below-average DH.
Among Doumit’s desireable attributes is his above-average pop, as his .171 iso can certainly attest. That a fair share his power tends to come from doubles and a small handful of triples will certainly help, as Target Field may quell some of his long ball power. Also, the platoon split may also be overstated a bit, as it’s really just less power from the right-handed side (.262/.329/.389) than the left (.275/.336/.461). One quirk in Doumit’s game that stands out is that he’s a dead pull hitter when he puts the ball on the ground, but much more of a push hitter when he elevates the ball. It’s hard to tell how exactly this will play out in cavernous Target Field, but Doumit has been a much better hitter at his home PNC Park – which typically plays rather neutral according to Baseball Reference park factors – than on the road.
As usual, $3 million doesn’t go very far on the free agent market, and TR did well to fill one of the club’s biggest holes – in reality, a couple holes simultaneously – relatively cheaply (and on a risk-free, one-year deal). Using extremely rudimentary math, that should buy about 0.6 WAR, a mark Doumit has failed to reach just once, in 2010, in his career. As yet, nobody from the organization has been quoted as such, but to me this move signals a white flag on the Cuddyer front, which probably also opens the potential for the club to sign Willingham, who for all intents and purposes is likely a better all-around hitter and should come at a fraction of the cost. By holding the second overall pick in the draft, this is also the best opportunity for the Twins to sign any Type-A free agents. By swapping out Cuddyer for Willingham, the Twins would gain a first round pick and similarly-talented hitter and it would only cost a second rounder, which the club would likely recoup in a Kubel signing.
It may be on the small scale, but TR seems to be working his magic again. After all, before figuring incentives, Doumit will only make as much as Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2012. That’s something legal-aged Twins fans will drink to.
Since taking over the helm from Bill Smith just over a week ago, TR (too many Ryans to keep straight here) has been more active on the free agent market than in the past, as he officially inked infielder Jamey Carroll on Wednesday and had been linked to Doumit and Josh Willingham – both Matt Sosnick clients – as well a number of other free agents. The scaled-back budget doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrence to TR; after all, if expenditures settle in near the $100 million mark, that would still be nearly $30 million more than he ever had to work with during his first go-round with the club.
It’s an encouraging development for fans of a team desperate for good news following arguably the worst season in Twins history.
Doumit certainly had whittled his choices down to two clubs which could use his skill set. Dave Cameron noted that if the M’s had inked Doumit, he’d have immediately become one of the club’s best offensive players. Similarly, Doumit fits well within the Twins needs, as the team desperately showed it needed depth at the corners in 2011. That’s unlikely to change given the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and the space that’s currently assigned to Trevor Plouffe. Whether or not Doumit, who has only averaged 311 plate appearances per season, is the proper fit is the $3 million question.
Though I like the move for the Twins overall, let’s first consider that this isn’t a player without flaws. For one, he’s yet to eclipse the 500 plate appearance mark in his seven-year career, in part due to injuries but also to platoon situations (.798/.718 OPS platoon split). For a team that spent the most time on the disabled list league-wide last season, this has to be a worry. He also isn’t particularly adept defensively, as he grades out negatively in pretty much every defensive measure, including a glut of passed balls and only a 25 percent throw-out rate for attempted base thieves. Certainly some of that can fall on the pitchers, but I’ve yet to see a glowing scouting report on Doumit’s defense. This may be covered up with regular time in the DH role, which is also an open spot on the Twins roster with Jim Thome completely out of the picture and Jason Kubel seemingly on the outs as well. In this instance, at least a repeat of his .830 OPS from 2011 would be paramount, lest the Twins want to employ a below-average DH.
Among Doumit’s desireable attributes is his above-average pop, as his .171 iso can certainly attest. That a fair share his power tends to come from doubles and a small handful of triples will certainly help, as Target Field may quell some of his long ball power. Also, the platoon split may also be overstated a bit, as it’s really just less power from the right-handed side (.262/.329/.389) than the left (.275/.336/.461). One quirk in Doumit’s game that stands out is that he’s a dead pull hitter when he puts the ball on the ground, but much more of a push hitter when he elevates the ball. It’s hard to tell how exactly this will play out in cavernous Target Field, but Doumit has been a much better hitter at his home PNC Park – which typically plays rather neutral according to Baseball Reference park factors – than on the road.
As usual, $3 million doesn’t go very far on the free agent market, and TR did well to fill one of the club’s biggest holes – in reality, a couple holes simultaneously – relatively cheaply (and on a risk-free, one-year deal). Using extremely rudimentary math, that should buy about 0.6 WAR, a mark Doumit has failed to reach just once, in 2010, in his career. As yet, nobody from the organization has been quoted as such, but to me this move signals a white flag on the Cuddyer front, which probably also opens the potential for the club to sign Willingham, who for all intents and purposes is likely a better all-around hitter and should come at a fraction of the cost. By holding the second overall pick in the draft, this is also the best opportunity for the Twins to sign any Type-A free agents. By swapping out Cuddyer for Willingham, the Twins would gain a first round pick and similarly-talented hitter and it would only cost a second rounder, which the club would likely recoup in a Kubel signing.
It may be on the small scale, but TR seems to be working his magic again. After all, before figuring incentives, Doumit will only make as much as Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2012. That’s something legal-aged Twins fans will drink to.
Projecting park effects: The Marlins' new stadium.
Spoiler [+]
To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.
When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.
But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.
Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!
There are a large number of variables that effect if a ballpark is a pitcher’s or hitter’s park: wind direction and speed, wall size, park dimensions, ballpark elevation, local climate, etc. Some of these variables are easy enough to determine beforehand, while others are impossible to predict without a highly sophisticated modeling program (e.g. average wind direction/speed). Right now, let’s focus on the variables we do know something about.
The climate and elevation for the new Miami Ballpark are straightforward enough: hot, humid, and close to sea level. One degree in temperature is worth around 0.033 runs (according to MGL), so the hotter it is on average, the more runs a team will score. This makes intuitive sense, as offense is difficult to come by in both early and late in the season when temperatures are cold. Remember how the bat stung on cold days in Little League? In Miami, players rarely (if ever) have to worry about that.
As for humidity, the research on that is mixed. From what I’ve found, humidity doesn’t have any noticeable impact on run scoring or hit distance. If this is outdated, though, please feel free to correct me in the comments. However, the other variable works against the Marlins: height above sea level. Balls travel farther the higher you get above sea level (think Colorado), and Miami abuts the Atlantic Ocean. This probably helps keeps Miami from being a hitter’s park like Arizona, which is both hot and at a high elevation.
Since the Marlins are merely moving a few miles away, all these variables will remain essentially the same. The Marlins will have a retractable roof now, so that may cool the game-time temperature by a few degrees now, but that’s the only main difference from the Marlins’ current park. Here are the recent park effects for Sun Life Stadium:
From Stat Corner.
The stadium as a whole grades out near average, but I find it interesting that the park boosts triples for righties and doubles for lefties, while slightly suppressing home run power for right-handed hitters. These effects are likely due to the park’s dimensions, since it has a deep alley in right-centerfield and a high left field fence that’s only 330 feet from home:
Gameday BIP Location (HRs, 3Bs, and 2Bs)
The new Miami stadium will have similar dimension with a few key differences. Left field will be slightly deeper (340 ft.), but the wall will be the same height all the way around the stadium. Right field will be slightly shallower (335 ft.), but the park is still expected to have similar dimensions across the outfield. Right-center will still be a deep power alley (392 ft.), and centerfield will be 420 feet away from home (same as it is now, despite the label). Here’s an estimated rendering of the dimensions:
This picture is likely not 100% accurate in the details, but it gives you a general idea of the dimensions: deep to center and right-center, and deeper in left field than Sun Life.
Based on these dimensions, it seems likely that the new Miami stadium will still favor doubles for lefties; that deep right-centerfield alley is impressive. Also, bringing the right field wall in closer should increase lefty home run production slightly. As for right-handed hitters, I’d expect their home run rate to remain below average; despite the fact that the wall has been lowered, the deeper dimensions will still make it challenging to hit home runs out to left.
The triple rate for right-handed hitters will depend in part on the “Bermuda Triangle
When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.
But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.
Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!
There are a large number of variables that effect if a ballpark is a pitcher’s or hitter’s park: wind direction and speed, wall size, park dimensions, ballpark elevation, local climate, etc. Some of these variables are easy enough to determine beforehand, while others are impossible to predict without a highly sophisticated modeling program (e.g. average wind direction/speed). Right now, let’s focus on the variables we do know something about.
The climate and elevation for the new Miami Ballpark are straightforward enough: hot, humid, and close to sea level. One degree in temperature is worth around 0.033 runs (according to MGL), so the hotter it is on average, the more runs a team will score. This makes intuitive sense, as offense is difficult to come by in both early and late in the season when temperatures are cold. Remember how the bat stung on cold days in Little League? In Miami, players rarely (if ever) have to worry about that.
As for humidity, the research on that is mixed. From what I’ve found, humidity doesn’t have any noticeable impact on run scoring or hit distance. If this is outdated, though, please feel free to correct me in the comments. However, the other variable works against the Marlins: height above sea level. Balls travel farther the higher you get above sea level (think Colorado), and Miami abuts the Atlantic Ocean. This probably helps keeps Miami from being a hitter’s park like Arizona, which is both hot and at a high elevation.
Since the Marlins are merely moving a few miles away, all these variables will remain essentially the same. The Marlins will have a retractable roof now, so that may cool the game-time temperature by a few degrees now, but that’s the only main difference from the Marlins’ current park. Here are the recent park effects for Sun Life Stadium:
From Stat Corner.
The stadium as a whole grades out near average, but I find it interesting that the park boosts triples for righties and doubles for lefties, while slightly suppressing home run power for right-handed hitters. These effects are likely due to the park’s dimensions, since it has a deep alley in right-centerfield and a high left field fence that’s only 330 feet from home:
Gameday BIP Location (HRs, 3Bs, and 2Bs)
The new Miami stadium will have similar dimension with a few key differences. Left field will be slightly deeper (340 ft.), but the wall will be the same height all the way around the stadium. Right field will be slightly shallower (335 ft.), but the park is still expected to have similar dimensions across the outfield. Right-center will still be a deep power alley (392 ft.), and centerfield will be 420 feet away from home (same as it is now, despite the label). Here’s an estimated rendering of the dimensions:
This picture is likely not 100% accurate in the details, but it gives you a general idea of the dimensions: deep to center and right-center, and deeper in left field than Sun Life.
Based on these dimensions, it seems likely that the new Miami stadium will still favor doubles for lefties; that deep right-centerfield alley is impressive. Also, bringing the right field wall in closer should increase lefty home run production slightly. As for right-handed hitters, I’d expect their home run rate to remain below average; despite the fact that the wall has been lowered, the deeper dimensions will still make it challenging to hit home runs out to left.
The triple rate for right-handed hitters will depend in part on the “Bermuda Triangle
Ryan Doumit, Twins ink one year deal.
Projecting park effects: The Marlins' new stadium.
Spoiler [+]
Minnesota Twins interim GM Terry Ryan fired a second free agency salvo Friday as the club inked C-1B-RF Ryan Doumit to a one-year, $3 million deal. The deal, which is pending a physical scheduled for next week per Pioneer Press Twins reporter John Shipley, also includes unspecified performance-based incentives. Jerry Crasnick had tweeted earlier Friday that the former Pittsburgh Pirate was choosing between two teams, with the Seattle Mariners apparently drawing the short straw in the Doumit derby.
Since taking over the helm from Bill Smith just over a week ago, TR (too many Ryans to keep straight here) has been more active on the free agent market than in the past, as he officially inked infielder Jamey Carroll on Wednesday and had been linked to Doumit and Josh Willingham – both Matt Sosnick clients – as well a number of other free agents. The scaled-back budget doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrence to TR; after all, if expenditures settle in near the $100 million mark, that would still be nearly $30 million more than he ever had to work with during his first go-round with the club.
It’s an encouraging development for fans of a team desperate for good news following arguably the worst season in Twins history.
Doumit certainly had whittled his choices down to two clubs which could use his skill set. Dave Cameron noted that if the M’s had inked Doumit, he’d have immediately become one of the club’s best offensive players. Similarly, Doumit fits well within the Twins needs, as the team desperately showed it needed depth at the corners in 2011. That’s unlikely to change given the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and the space that’s currently assigned to Trevor Plouffe. Whether or not Doumit, who has only averaged 311 plate appearances per season, is the proper fit is the $3 million question.
Though I like the move for the Twins overall, let’s first consider that this isn’t a player without flaws. For one, he’s yet to eclipse the 500 plate appearance mark in his seven-year career, in part due to injuries but also to platoon situations (.798/.718 OPS platoon split). For a team that spent the most time on the disabled list league-wide last season, this has to be a worry. He also isn’t particularly adept defensively, as he grades out negatively in pretty much every defensive measure, including a glut of passed balls and only a 25 percent throw-out rate for attempted base thieves. Certainly some of that can fall on the pitchers, but I’ve yet to see a glowing scouting report on Doumit’s defense. This may be covered up with regular time in the DH role, which is also an open spot on the Twins roster with Jim Thome completely out of the picture and Jason Kubel seemingly on the outs as well. In this instance, at least a repeat of his .830 OPS from 2011 would be paramount, lest the Twins want to employ a below-average DH.
Among Doumit’s desireable attributes is his above-average pop, as his .171 iso can certainly attest. That a fair share his power tends to come from doubles and a small handful of triples will certainly help, as Target Field may quell some of his long ball power. Also, the platoon split may also be overstated a bit, as it’s really just less power from the right-handed side (.262/.329/.389) than the left (.275/.336/.461). One quirk in Doumit’s game that stands out is that he’s a dead pull hitter when he puts the ball on the ground, but much more of a push hitter when he elevates the ball. It’s hard to tell how exactly this will play out in cavernous Target Field, but Doumit has been a much better hitter at his home PNC Park – which typically plays rather neutral according to Baseball Reference park factors – than on the road.
As usual, $3 million doesn’t go very far on the free agent market, and TR did well to fill one of the club’s biggest holes – in reality, a couple holes simultaneously – relatively cheaply (and on a risk-free, one-year deal). Using extremely rudimentary math, that should buy about 0.6 WAR, a mark Doumit has failed to reach just once, in 2010, in his career. As yet, nobody from the organization has been quoted as such, but to me this move signals a white flag on the Cuddyer front, which probably also opens the potential for the club to sign Willingham, who for all intents and purposes is likely a better all-around hitter and should come at a fraction of the cost. By holding the second overall pick in the draft, this is also the best opportunity for the Twins to sign any Type-A free agents. By swapping out Cuddyer for Willingham, the Twins would gain a first round pick and similarly-talented hitter and it would only cost a second rounder, which the club would likely recoup in a Kubel signing.
It may be on the small scale, but TR seems to be working his magic again. After all, before figuring incentives, Doumit will only make as much as Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2012. That’s something legal-aged Twins fans will drink to.
Since taking over the helm from Bill Smith just over a week ago, TR (too many Ryans to keep straight here) has been more active on the free agent market than in the past, as he officially inked infielder Jamey Carroll on Wednesday and had been linked to Doumit and Josh Willingham – both Matt Sosnick clients – as well a number of other free agents. The scaled-back budget doesn’t appear to be much of a deterrence to TR; after all, if expenditures settle in near the $100 million mark, that would still be nearly $30 million more than he ever had to work with during his first go-round with the club.
It’s an encouraging development for fans of a team desperate for good news following arguably the worst season in Twins history.
Doumit certainly had whittled his choices down to two clubs which could use his skill set. Dave Cameron noted that if the M’s had inked Doumit, he’d have immediately become one of the club’s best offensive players. Similarly, Doumit fits well within the Twins needs, as the team desperately showed it needed depth at the corners in 2011. That’s unlikely to change given the uncertainty surrounding Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and the space that’s currently assigned to Trevor Plouffe. Whether or not Doumit, who has only averaged 311 plate appearances per season, is the proper fit is the $3 million question.
Though I like the move for the Twins overall, let’s first consider that this isn’t a player without flaws. For one, he’s yet to eclipse the 500 plate appearance mark in his seven-year career, in part due to injuries but also to platoon situations (.798/.718 OPS platoon split). For a team that spent the most time on the disabled list league-wide last season, this has to be a worry. He also isn’t particularly adept defensively, as he grades out negatively in pretty much every defensive measure, including a glut of passed balls and only a 25 percent throw-out rate for attempted base thieves. Certainly some of that can fall on the pitchers, but I’ve yet to see a glowing scouting report on Doumit’s defense. This may be covered up with regular time in the DH role, which is also an open spot on the Twins roster with Jim Thome completely out of the picture and Jason Kubel seemingly on the outs as well. In this instance, at least a repeat of his .830 OPS from 2011 would be paramount, lest the Twins want to employ a below-average DH.
Among Doumit’s desireable attributes is his above-average pop, as his .171 iso can certainly attest. That a fair share his power tends to come from doubles and a small handful of triples will certainly help, as Target Field may quell some of his long ball power. Also, the platoon split may also be overstated a bit, as it’s really just less power from the right-handed side (.262/.329/.389) than the left (.275/.336/.461). One quirk in Doumit’s game that stands out is that he’s a dead pull hitter when he puts the ball on the ground, but much more of a push hitter when he elevates the ball. It’s hard to tell how exactly this will play out in cavernous Target Field, but Doumit has been a much better hitter at his home PNC Park – which typically plays rather neutral according to Baseball Reference park factors – than on the road.
As usual, $3 million doesn’t go very far on the free agent market, and TR did well to fill one of the club’s biggest holes – in reality, a couple holes simultaneously – relatively cheaply (and on a risk-free, one-year deal). Using extremely rudimentary math, that should buy about 0.6 WAR, a mark Doumit has failed to reach just once, in 2010, in his career. As yet, nobody from the organization has been quoted as such, but to me this move signals a white flag on the Cuddyer front, which probably also opens the potential for the club to sign Willingham, who for all intents and purposes is likely a better all-around hitter and should come at a fraction of the cost. By holding the second overall pick in the draft, this is also the best opportunity for the Twins to sign any Type-A free agents. By swapping out Cuddyer for Willingham, the Twins would gain a first round pick and similarly-talented hitter and it would only cost a second rounder, which the club would likely recoup in a Kubel signing.
It may be on the small scale, but TR seems to be working his magic again. After all, before figuring incentives, Doumit will only make as much as Tsuyoshi Nishioka in 2012. That’s something legal-aged Twins fans will drink to.
Projecting park effects: The Marlins' new stadium.
Spoiler [+]
To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.
When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.
But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.
Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!
There are a large number of variables that effect if a ballpark is a pitcher’s or hitter’s park: wind direction and speed, wall size, park dimensions, ballpark elevation, local climate, etc. Some of these variables are easy enough to determine beforehand, while others are impossible to predict without a highly sophisticated modeling program (e.g. average wind direction/speed). Right now, let’s focus on the variables we do know something about.
The climate and elevation for the new Miami Ballpark are straightforward enough: hot, humid, and close to sea level. One degree in temperature is worth around 0.033 runs (according to MGL), so the hotter it is on average, the more runs a team will score. This makes intuitive sense, as offense is difficult to come by in both early and late in the season when temperatures are cold. Remember how the bat stung on cold days in Little League? In Miami, players rarely (if ever) have to worry about that.
As for humidity, the research on that is mixed. From what I’ve found, humidity doesn’t have any noticeable impact on run scoring or hit distance. If this is outdated, though, please feel free to correct me in the comments. However, the other variable works against the Marlins: height above sea level. Balls travel farther the higher you get above sea level (think Colorado), and Miami abuts the Atlantic Ocean. This probably helps keeps Miami from being a hitter’s park like Arizona, which is both hot and at a high elevation.
Since the Marlins are merely moving a few miles away, all these variables will remain essentially the same. The Marlins will have a retractable roof now, so that may cool the game-time temperature by a few degrees now, but that’s the only main difference from the Marlins’ current park. Here are the recent park effects for Sun Life Stadium:
From Stat Corner.
The stadium as a whole grades out near average, but I find it interesting that the park boosts triples for righties and doubles for lefties, while slightly suppressing home run power for right-handed hitters. These effects are likely due to the park’s dimensions, since it has a deep alley in right-centerfield and a high left field fence that’s only 330 feet from home:
Gameday BIP Location (HRs, 3Bs, and 2Bs)
The new Miami stadium will have similar dimension with a few key differences. Left field will be slightly deeper (340 ft.), but the wall will be the same height all the way around the stadium. Right field will be slightly shallower (335 ft.), but the park is still expected to have similar dimensions across the outfield. Right-center will still be a deep power alley (392 ft.), and centerfield will be 420 feet away from home (same as it is now, despite the label). Here’s an estimated rendering of the dimensions:
This picture is likely not 100% accurate in the details, but it gives you a general idea of the dimensions: deep to center and right-center, and deeper in left field than Sun Life.
Based on these dimensions, it seems likely that the new Miami stadium will still favor doubles for lefties; that deep right-centerfield alley is impressive. Also, bringing the right field wall in closer should increase lefty home run production slightly. As for right-handed hitters, I’d expect their home run rate to remain below average; despite the fact that the wall has been lowered, the deeper dimensions will still make it challenging to hit home runs out to left.
The triple rate for right-handed hitters will depend in part on the “Bermuda Triangle
When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.
But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.
Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!
There are a large number of variables that effect if a ballpark is a pitcher’s or hitter’s park: wind direction and speed, wall size, park dimensions, ballpark elevation, local climate, etc. Some of these variables are easy enough to determine beforehand, while others are impossible to predict without a highly sophisticated modeling program (e.g. average wind direction/speed). Right now, let’s focus on the variables we do know something about.
The climate and elevation for the new Miami Ballpark are straightforward enough: hot, humid, and close to sea level. One degree in temperature is worth around 0.033 runs (according to MGL), so the hotter it is on average, the more runs a team will score. This makes intuitive sense, as offense is difficult to come by in both early and late in the season when temperatures are cold. Remember how the bat stung on cold days in Little League? In Miami, players rarely (if ever) have to worry about that.
As for humidity, the research on that is mixed. From what I’ve found, humidity doesn’t have any noticeable impact on run scoring or hit distance. If this is outdated, though, please feel free to correct me in the comments. However, the other variable works against the Marlins: height above sea level. Balls travel farther the higher you get above sea level (think Colorado), and Miami abuts the Atlantic Ocean. This probably helps keeps Miami from being a hitter’s park like Arizona, which is both hot and at a high elevation.
Since the Marlins are merely moving a few miles away, all these variables will remain essentially the same. The Marlins will have a retractable roof now, so that may cool the game-time temperature by a few degrees now, but that’s the only main difference from the Marlins’ current park. Here are the recent park effects for Sun Life Stadium:
From Stat Corner.
The stadium as a whole grades out near average, but I find it interesting that the park boosts triples for righties and doubles for lefties, while slightly suppressing home run power for right-handed hitters. These effects are likely due to the park’s dimensions, since it has a deep alley in right-centerfield and a high left field fence that’s only 330 feet from home:
Gameday BIP Location (HRs, 3Bs, and 2Bs)
The new Miami stadium will have similar dimension with a few key differences. Left field will be slightly deeper (340 ft.), but the wall will be the same height all the way around the stadium. Right field will be slightly shallower (335 ft.), but the park is still expected to have similar dimensions across the outfield. Right-center will still be a deep power alley (392 ft.), and centerfield will be 420 feet away from home (same as it is now, despite the label). Here’s an estimated rendering of the dimensions:
This picture is likely not 100% accurate in the details, but it gives you a general idea of the dimensions: deep to center and right-center, and deeper in left field than Sun Life.
Based on these dimensions, it seems likely that the new Miami stadium will still favor doubles for lefties; that deep right-centerfield alley is impressive. Also, bringing the right field wall in closer should increase lefty home run production slightly. As for right-handed hitters, I’d expect their home run rate to remain below average; despite the fact that the wall has been lowered, the deeper dimensions will still make it challenging to hit home runs out to left.
The triple rate for right-handed hitters will depend in part on the “Bermuda Triangle
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RIP Greg Halman
Brother suspect ? WOW
Brother suspect ? WOW
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RIP Greg Halman
Brother suspect ? WOW
Brother suspect ? WOW
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Verlander wins AL MVP.
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Verlander wins AL MVP.
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Phils aquire Wigginton
would love to get Reyes.
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Phils aquire Wigginton
would love to get Reyes.
would love to get Reyes.
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Finally, no reason to waste him as a closer.
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