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MAAAAN..............you KNOW its too early in the season for all that mess when the asstro`s are in second place and the pirates are in 3rd
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
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NL East shake-up.
Josh Hamilton's risky move.
Boston Red Sox are in trouble already.
Angels looking like MLB's best team.
For six contenders, D is the key.
Spoiler [+]
It's far too early to get worked up about the season. Everything we thought we knew might change in the next six months, as it frequently does, and a three-game winning streak is a blip on the radar. Just look back to last season, when, after losing on Opening Day, the New York Mets promptly reeled off three straight wins. Later in April, they won six in a row. During the next five months, they won at least three games in a row on 10 separate occasions. Yet they finished with a 77-85 record.
Still, it's hard not to be encouraged by what we saw from the Mets in these first three games, as they swept the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. And if you're a Braves fan, you have to be at least a bit concerned by what you saw. The voters of the ESPN.com Power Rankings were clearly moved by the results of the series, as they now have the Mets at No. 17, ahead of the Braves at No. 23. Sounds crazy, yes, but if a year ago today you had said: "The Arizona Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL West," you would have been laughed at. But it turned out to be true in 2011. So for 2012, is there a chance the Mets are actually the better team?
Let's start by looking at the Mets. While Johan Santana tired quickly on Opening Day, he pitched well, and his endurance should build as the season progresses. Since Santana broke through as a starter, he has never had a single-season FIP worse than 3.82. But after a year away from the majors, it was hard to know what he would bring to the table. The six projections listed for him at FanGraphs averaged to a 3.75 FIP, but they ranged from 3.42 on the low end to 4.47 on the high end. The big variable, of course, will be how effective Santana can be with reduced velocity, as pitchers with surgically repaired shoulders don't throw as hard as they did before the operation. The very early returns are good, as he generated swings and misses on all of his pitches. Santana's days of league domination are long behind him, but if he can be a league-average pitcher, the Mets would benefit immensely. Last season, the NL-average FIP for starting pitchers was 3.92. In R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets had two pitchers who were much better than that mark. Adding a third would boost the Mets further into the realm of respectability.
It wasn't just the starters who pitched well in this series for the Mets, though. In a weekend that saw both new and established closers implode repeatedly, Frank Francisco succeeded in being a nonstory. He saved all three games for the Metropolitans. He faced 11 batters and retired nine of them, striking out four and allowing just two singles. And he wasn't alone, as all told, the Mets' bullpen allowed just one run in 10 innings. Again, we're not going to pull out our jump-to-conclusions mats over 10 innings, but for a team whose pitching staff had more questions than answers just five days ago, it was a refreshing performance for a team that finished 28th in baseball in bullpen ERA last year. Truth is, the Mets' 'pen has nowhere to go but up.
On offense, New York has to be encouraged by David Wright, who was seemingly on base all weekend and appeared to be in 2008 form. The Mets' offense lacks star power elsewhere, but it is filled with players who are above-average in the OBP department relative to others at their position.
On the other side of that coin, we find the Braves, whose nine-spot drop in the rankings seems rash. Yes, they are 0-3, but they were outscored by five runs in three games, and road games at that. That is not a tragedy by any stretch, and while Dickey and Niese may not be household names, there is no shame in being held in check by either pitcher.
In scoring just two runs in the first two games, the Braves' offense -- or lack thereof -- was again in the spotlight, and after being no-hit for six innings on Sunday, the spotlight figures to keep shining on the Atlanta bats. But then the Braves broke out for four runs in the seventh, and added a fifth in the eighth when Brian McCann connected on his first round-tripper of the season.
Despite the outburst, the critics of Atlanta's offense are unlikely to vanish any time soon, but the Braves should have an improved offense this season. First, Jason Heyward should be much better than he was in 2011. Even his most modest of six projections at FanGraphs pegs Heyward for a .349 wOBA, which would be a 35-point bump from last season. Second, the team gets a full season of Michael Bourn in center field. While Bourn struggled in making the transition to Atlanta after his trade from Houston last season, he was still much better at the plate than Jordan Schafer. Should Bourn revert to his previously established level of play (he entered Sunday's action with a career .322 wOBA), he will be a substantial upgrade over the Schafer-Nate McLouth combo that the Braves featured in the first half of last season. Finally, by trading for Juan Francisco, the Braves were finally able to find a suitable, dedicated backup for Chipper Jones. Francisco has flashed above-average power throughout his pro career, and the Braves could very well be the beneficiaries of that this year in what should be Francisco's first full season in the majors.
Most important, Atlanta still has excellent pitching -- in the rotation and bullpen -- and that is still intact. One poor outing from Mike Minor doesn't change that.
So where does that leave the teams? If Santana can flash the form he showed on Thursday, or something close to it for 150-plus innings, the Mets will not be as bad as originally assumed. That said, it's still too early to proclaim them as better than the Braves. Even with the power outage in the first two games, Atlanta's offense should be better than last year, and its relegation to the bottom 10 in the power rankings will soon be a distant memory.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005, and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Still, it's hard not to be encouraged by what we saw from the Mets in these first three games, as they swept the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. And if you're a Braves fan, you have to be at least a bit concerned by what you saw. The voters of the ESPN.com Power Rankings were clearly moved by the results of the series, as they now have the Mets at No. 17, ahead of the Braves at No. 23. Sounds crazy, yes, but if a year ago today you had said: "The Arizona Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL West," you would have been laughed at. But it turned out to be true in 2011. So for 2012, is there a chance the Mets are actually the better team?
Let's start by looking at the Mets. While Johan Santana tired quickly on Opening Day, he pitched well, and his endurance should build as the season progresses. Since Santana broke through as a starter, he has never had a single-season FIP worse than 3.82. But after a year away from the majors, it was hard to know what he would bring to the table. The six projections listed for him at FanGraphs averaged to a 3.75 FIP, but they ranged from 3.42 on the low end to 4.47 on the high end. The big variable, of course, will be how effective Santana can be with reduced velocity, as pitchers with surgically repaired shoulders don't throw as hard as they did before the operation. The very early returns are good, as he generated swings and misses on all of his pitches. Santana's days of league domination are long behind him, but if he can be a league-average pitcher, the Mets would benefit immensely. Last season, the NL-average FIP for starting pitchers was 3.92. In R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets had two pitchers who were much better than that mark. Adding a third would boost the Mets further into the realm of respectability.
It wasn't just the starters who pitched well in this series for the Mets, though. In a weekend that saw both new and established closers implode repeatedly, Frank Francisco succeeded in being a nonstory. He saved all three games for the Metropolitans. He faced 11 batters and retired nine of them, striking out four and allowing just two singles. And he wasn't alone, as all told, the Mets' bullpen allowed just one run in 10 innings. Again, we're not going to pull out our jump-to-conclusions mats over 10 innings, but for a team whose pitching staff had more questions than answers just five days ago, it was a refreshing performance for a team that finished 28th in baseball in bullpen ERA last year. Truth is, the Mets' 'pen has nowhere to go but up.
On offense, New York has to be encouraged by David Wright, who was seemingly on base all weekend and appeared to be in 2008 form. The Mets' offense lacks star power elsewhere, but it is filled with players who are above-average in the OBP department relative to others at their position.
On the other side of that coin, we find the Braves, whose nine-spot drop in the rankings seems rash. Yes, they are 0-3, but they were outscored by five runs in three games, and road games at that. That is not a tragedy by any stretch, and while Dickey and Niese may not be household names, there is no shame in being held in check by either pitcher.
In scoring just two runs in the first two games, the Braves' offense -- or lack thereof -- was again in the spotlight, and after being no-hit for six innings on Sunday, the spotlight figures to keep shining on the Atlanta bats. But then the Braves broke out for four runs in the seventh, and added a fifth in the eighth when Brian McCann connected on his first round-tripper of the season.
Despite the outburst, the critics of Atlanta's offense are unlikely to vanish any time soon, but the Braves should have an improved offense this season. First, Jason Heyward should be much better than he was in 2011. Even his most modest of six projections at FanGraphs pegs Heyward for a .349 wOBA, which would be a 35-point bump from last season. Second, the team gets a full season of Michael Bourn in center field. While Bourn struggled in making the transition to Atlanta after his trade from Houston last season, he was still much better at the plate than Jordan Schafer. Should Bourn revert to his previously established level of play (he entered Sunday's action with a career .322 wOBA), he will be a substantial upgrade over the Schafer-Nate McLouth combo that the Braves featured in the first half of last season. Finally, by trading for Juan Francisco, the Braves were finally able to find a suitable, dedicated backup for Chipper Jones. Francisco has flashed above-average power throughout his pro career, and the Braves could very well be the beneficiaries of that this year in what should be Francisco's first full season in the majors.
Most important, Atlanta still has excellent pitching -- in the rotation and bullpen -- and that is still intact. One poor outing from Mike Minor doesn't change that.
So where does that leave the teams? If Santana can flash the form he showed on Thursday, or something close to it for 150-plus innings, the Mets will not be as bad as originally assumed. That said, it's still too early to proclaim them as better than the Braves. Even with the power outage in the first two games, Atlanta's offense should be better than last year, and its relegation to the bottom 10 in the power rankings will soon be a distant memory.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005, and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Josh Hamilton's risky move.
Spoiler [+]
Entering a contract season, the Texas Rangers want to make sure they get as much value from Josh Hamilton as possible before he hits the open market. That's one big reason why Hamilton will move back to his original position as a center fielder after spending the past two seasons as a left fielder for the Rangers. While the Rangers initially moved Hamilton to left in order to keep him healthier, and Hamilton may prefer to play center, the move could cost him millions on the free-agent market.
Unfortunately, the Rangers don't have many other options in center. Julio Borbon, has never really hit in the majors and was sent down to Triple-A to start the season. They also have prospect Leonys Martin, but Ron Washington said in early April that Martin will likely spend most of this season in the minors. Craig Gentry will be a sub/defensive replacement for them this year. Playing Hamilton in center will allow the team to optimize their lineup offensively.
Hamilton is one of the most talented players in the game, but he's always had issues staying healthy. While he was healthy his first season with the Rangers, injuries limited Hamilton to just 89 games in his second year, when he crashed into the wall while playing center field in April. Hamilton was placed on the 15-day DL after the incident, but it lingered the entire season. He returned in early May, but on June 1, Hamilton was put back on the DL with abdominal issues suffered during the same incident. The next season, the team moved Hamilton to left field and the decision paid huge dividends for both Hamilton and the Rangers. He has managed to play 133 and 121 games the past two years and, not coincidentally, has posted the two best seasons of his career during that time, winning the AL MVP award in 2010.
But the decision for Hamilton to move back to center field is puzzling considered the mega-deals handed out to Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth in 2010. In the three seasons prior to hitting free agency, Crawford had compiled 16.3 WAR compared to Werth's 15.8. The past two seasons alone, Hamilton has been worth 12.7 WAR. Hamilton has averaged about 4.2 WAR per season. If he were to reach that limit again, he would have more value than either Crawford or Werth entering the free-agent market. And while teams might be hesitant to offer big money to a 32-year-old outfielder, Werth was the same age when he signed his seven-year, $126 million contact with the Washington Nationals.
While good corner outfielders can receive extremely lucrative deals on the market, it's tough to judge center fielders. Because up-the-middle players are typically more valuable to building a team, very few good center fielders reach the free-agent market. This offseason, Matt Kemp, Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutchen were all signed to long-term deals, ensuring they wouldn't reach the free-agent market anytime soon.
The last two significant free-agent contracts handed out to center fielders were received by Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter. But it's incredibly tough to compare either player to Hamilton. Assuming Hamilton registers at least his average WAR this year, his value over the three seasons preceding his free agency will far exceed that of Rowand and Hunter leading up to their signings. Rowand accumulated 11.4 WAR before hitting the market, while Hunter was worth just 8.3 WAR.
Unfortunately for Hamilton, he's slated to be a free agent when a few other talented center fielders will also be on the market. Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and B.J. Upton should all be popular commodities next offseason. Curtis Granderson could hit the market, but unless he completely collapses, his $13 million club option should be a no-brainer for the New York Yankees.
Hamilton may be the most talented player of that bunch, but all of those other center fielders who should hit the market are regarded as strong defensive players. Hamilton, on the other hand, doesn't rate well as a center fielder. Though Hamilton's career UZR is dragged down by a horrendous minus-15.4 in 2008, Hamilton has fluctuated between poor and barely passable in center. The advantage Hamilton thinks he would have by proving he can play center would be mitigated by the fact that there are much better defensive players on the market.
There's no doubt Hamilton is a special player, but his injury history makes signing him to a long-term deal a risky proposition. By moving to center field, Hamilton only increases the chances that he'll be injured again. Even though the Rangers may have nothing to lose since he could leave after the season, Hamilton may be costing himself millions by making the move.
Christopher Cwik is a writer for FanGraphs.
Unfortunately, the Rangers don't have many other options in center. Julio Borbon, has never really hit in the majors and was sent down to Triple-A to start the season. They also have prospect Leonys Martin, but Ron Washington said in early April that Martin will likely spend most of this season in the minors. Craig Gentry will be a sub/defensive replacement for them this year. Playing Hamilton in center will allow the team to optimize their lineup offensively.
Hamilton is one of the most talented players in the game, but he's always had issues staying healthy. While he was healthy his first season with the Rangers, injuries limited Hamilton to just 89 games in his second year, when he crashed into the wall while playing center field in April. Hamilton was placed on the 15-day DL after the incident, but it lingered the entire season. He returned in early May, but on June 1, Hamilton was put back on the DL with abdominal issues suffered during the same incident. The next season, the team moved Hamilton to left field and the decision paid huge dividends for both Hamilton and the Rangers. He has managed to play 133 and 121 games the past two years and, not coincidentally, has posted the two best seasons of his career during that time, winning the AL MVP award in 2010.
But the decision for Hamilton to move back to center field is puzzling considered the mega-deals handed out to Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth in 2010. In the three seasons prior to hitting free agency, Crawford had compiled 16.3 WAR compared to Werth's 15.8. The past two seasons alone, Hamilton has been worth 12.7 WAR. Hamilton has averaged about 4.2 WAR per season. If he were to reach that limit again, he would have more value than either Crawford or Werth entering the free-agent market. And while teams might be hesitant to offer big money to a 32-year-old outfielder, Werth was the same age when he signed his seven-year, $126 million contact with the Washington Nationals.
While good corner outfielders can receive extremely lucrative deals on the market, it's tough to judge center fielders. Because up-the-middle players are typically more valuable to building a team, very few good center fielders reach the free-agent market. This offseason, Matt Kemp, Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutchen were all signed to long-term deals, ensuring they wouldn't reach the free-agent market anytime soon.
The last two significant free-agent contracts handed out to center fielders were received by Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter. But it's incredibly tough to compare either player to Hamilton. Assuming Hamilton registers at least his average WAR this year, his value over the three seasons preceding his free agency will far exceed that of Rowand and Hunter leading up to their signings. Rowand accumulated 11.4 WAR before hitting the market, while Hunter was worth just 8.3 WAR.
Unfortunately for Hamilton, he's slated to be a free agent when a few other talented center fielders will also be on the market. Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and B.J. Upton should all be popular commodities next offseason. Curtis Granderson could hit the market, but unless he completely collapses, his $13 million club option should be a no-brainer for the New York Yankees.
Hamilton may be the most talented player of that bunch, but all of those other center fielders who should hit the market are regarded as strong defensive players. Hamilton, on the other hand, doesn't rate well as a center fielder. Though Hamilton's career UZR is dragged down by a horrendous minus-15.4 in 2008, Hamilton has fluctuated between poor and barely passable in center. The advantage Hamilton thinks he would have by proving he can play center would be mitigated by the fact that there are much better defensive players on the market.
There's no doubt Hamilton is a special player, but his injury history makes signing him to a long-term deal a risky proposition. By moving to center field, Hamilton only increases the chances that he'll be injured again. Even though the Rangers may have nothing to lose since he could leave after the season, Hamilton may be costing himself millions by making the move.
Christopher Cwik is a writer for FanGraphs.
Boston Red Sox are in trouble already.
Spoiler [+]
The Boston Red Sox have played only two games, a rational person might say -- two of 162. A little perspective is needed, a rational person might say. There is no reason to overreact over a couple of road losses to a pretty good team, the Detroit Tigers.
But keep in mind that rationality and perspective began evaporating in Boston on Sept. 1, 2011. Since that day, the Red Sox have lost 22 of the 29 games they have played. Since that day, the whole place has gone nutty.
You want rational? Club ownership shoved out Terry Francona, a manager who had led the team to two championships in eight years. They embraced Theo Epstein's exit from the organization, rather than just saying no, which they always had the right to do.
You want rational? Somebody in the organization decided to smear Francona's name after he departed. Clubhouse sources leaked information about teammates eating chicken and beer during games, leaving some players to angrily speculate about the identity of the mole, and whether it's one of the other guys on the field.
Bobby Valentine was hired to manage a group of players fractured by last fall's events, and true to form, he has been outspoken and direct. But the splinters in the clubhouse festered long before the start of spring training.
You want rational? Well, forget it. If the Red Sox lose some more in the days ahead and a full-blown overreaction overruns the media coverage and fans, well, it's been earned.
The Red Sox don't look good. They have major questions about their bullpen and defense. They aren't singing "Kumbaya" together, and won't be until their internal issues are fully resolved. Compared to the clubhouse harmony that thrives with the St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals and other teams, the Red Sox's clubhouse feels like a place of solitary confinement.
But here's the thing: The Red Sox have to solve it themselves.
Yes, Andrew Bailey might be back for the final weeks of the season, and Carl Crawford could be back by the end of the month. But they aren't trading for Joel Hanrahan anytime soon; Mahatma Gandhi isn't walking through the door to promote internal peace.
There is a building tide of discontent swirling in Boston over this team, and it will crash on them quickly unless there is rapid change. Valentine really doesn't have the power to make that happen. Only the Red Sox players can.
Josh Beckett's start Saturday looked a lot like last September, writes Dan Shaughnessy. Kevin Youkilis is really struggling.
Beckett's effort was not fine for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
It was a big day for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, writes Tom Gage. Doug Fister is headed to the disabled list, which means somebody will have to step into the Detroit rotation. Considering Duane Below's strong relief effort Saturday, and the fact that he was competing for the rotation in spring training, you have to wonder whether he'll get the call.
From ESPN Stats and Info: Beckett had allowed six total earned runs in his previous five starts against the Tigers.
Beckett also allowed five home runs Saturday, tied for most allowed in a single game in his career (Aug. 23, 2009 vs. Yankees).
Last season, Beckett did not give up his fifth home run until June 28.
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
Beckett is the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1900) to allow at least five home runs in a game within his team's first two games of the season.
• Yoenis Cespedes has hit homers in his past three games. Within Steve Kroner's piece, Oakland manager Bob Melvin echoes something that GM Billy Beane said last week: Cespedes does a great job of leaving bad at-bats behind him:
• Standing on the field before the Royals' opener the other day, pitching coach Dave Eiland said he thought Luke Hochevar is in for a really good year, because he had made some adjustments, putting his arm in position to drive the ball on a downward plane. Eiland is certainly right, so far: Hochevar shut down the Angels.
• If Zack Greinke is going to rebuild his market value so that he might have a chance to get the kind of whopper deal that Matt Cain landed, two things have to happen:
1. He's got to pitch well, which he did Saturday, in shutting down the Cardinals. The general perception of him among evaluators last season was that he had a very mediocre first season with the Brewers, and he didn't pitch to his ability.
2. He's got to alter the perception that he can be a troublesome clubhouse presence, a reputation he earned in his years with the Royals. A lot of teammates there thought he was not invested in the rest of them. There are already some teams who won't consider Greinke because of the uneven nature of his exit from Kansas City.
Look, a lot of players -- a lot of people -- change as they get older. If there is perceived change in Greinke, it'll help his new agent, Casey Close, a whole lot.
Greinke made his first start count, writes Michael Hunt.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Greinke won:
A. Sixty-one of his 91 pitches (67.0 percent) were down in the zone or below it, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2009.
B. Twelve of the 17 balls in play (70.6 percent) against Greinke were hit on the ground, Greinke's highest percentage since Sept. 8, 2010.
C. Greinke went to just one 2-0 count and no 3-0 counts, and did not have a plate appearance last longer than six pitches.
D. Cardinals hitters were 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a breaking ball from Greinke.
• A pitch in the dirt was pivotal for the Blue Jays on Saturday, writes Bob Elliott. The Jays are a well-managed, well-coached team, but beyond that, they seem to have a very high degree of focus. They are invested.
How Brandon Morrow flirted with a no-hitter, from ESPN Stats and Info:
A. The Indians started eight lefties, and 68.5 percent of the pitches they saw from Morrow were on the outer third of the plate or further outside. Last season, just less than half of the pitches Morrow threw to lefties were outside.
B. Ten of the 18 balls in play (55.6 percent) against Morrow were hit on the ground, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2011.
C. Morrow got 29 called strikes, his highest total since the start of 2009.
• Lucas Harrell outdueled a 49-year-old.
• Kendrys Morales looks great.
From ESPN Stats and Info: By The Numbers
5: Players with multi-homer games, matching the most multi-homer games from any day last season; there were four days last year with five such games.
7: No-hit bids that Ubaldo Jimenez and Brandon Morrow have taken past the fourth inning since 2010 (most in MLB).
10: Runs the Tigers scored in their 10-0 win over the Red Sox. It's the most runs they're scored in a shutout win versus the Red Sox since a 13-0 win in 1948 (tied for third-largest shutout win all time vs. the Red Sox).
512: Home runs Jamie Moyer has allowed in his career (most all time).
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are making progress in their respective rehab stints.
2. Top draft pick Anthony Rendon was hurt, Adam Kilgore writes.
3. Clayton Kershaw is feeling better.
4. Carlos Quentin is getting closer to coming back.
5. A Twins pitcher was scratched from his start because of food poisoning, Brian Murphy writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The mystery is over: Hector Santiago is the White Sox's closer.
2. Mike Matheny plans to make some lineup changes.
3. Ned Yost is matching up his catchers, Bob Dutton writes.
4. As expected, Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped his appeal.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Brett Lawrie was The Man for the Blue Jays.
2. Chad Tracy is already a Nationals legend in 2012.
3. The Phillies fell on a close play. The lack of offense has been a problem for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.
4. Hiroki Kuroda had a bad day.
5. Joe Nathan played a cat-and-mouse game, and lost.
6. The Braves are off to their first 0-2 start in four years, David O'Brien writes.
7. Dee Gordon stole three bases and helped the Dodgers win in extras.
8. Dan Haren was shaky.
9. The Giants dug an early hole for themselves again.
10. The Padres put together a crazy rally, but still lost.
11. The Mariners overcame a rough start by Felix Hernandez.
12. The Twins played badly, again, Joe Christensen writes. These Twins look a lot like the 99-loss team of a year ago, writes Jim Souhan.
13. Luke Scott provided some punch at the plate. Joe Maddon acted on a hunch.
14. The Marlins broke out.
15. The Reds lost in Mat Latos' debut.
16. The White Sox won Paul Konerko's 2,000th game.
17. The Cubs had another bullpen blowup. Matt Garza took some blame.
18. Ubaldo Jimenez threw well, but the Indians squandered the effort. There is reason for optimism after his start, writes Bill Livingston.
19. Jamie Moyer had a bad day.
20. Lucas Duda mashed two HRs, Andy Martino writes.
21. The Orioles are perfect so far.
But keep in mind that rationality and perspective began evaporating in Boston on Sept. 1, 2011. Since that day, the Red Sox have lost 22 of the 29 games they have played. Since that day, the whole place has gone nutty.
You want rational? Club ownership shoved out Terry Francona, a manager who had led the team to two championships in eight years. They embraced Theo Epstein's exit from the organization, rather than just saying no, which they always had the right to do.
You want rational? Somebody in the organization decided to smear Francona's name after he departed. Clubhouse sources leaked information about teammates eating chicken and beer during games, leaving some players to angrily speculate about the identity of the mole, and whether it's one of the other guys on the field.
Bobby Valentine was hired to manage a group of players fractured by last fall's events, and true to form, he has been outspoken and direct. But the splinters in the clubhouse festered long before the start of spring training.
You want rational? Well, forget it. If the Red Sox lose some more in the days ahead and a full-blown overreaction overruns the media coverage and fans, well, it's been earned.
The Red Sox don't look good. They have major questions about their bullpen and defense. They aren't singing "Kumbaya" together, and won't be until their internal issues are fully resolved. Compared to the clubhouse harmony that thrives with the St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals and other teams, the Red Sox's clubhouse feels like a place of solitary confinement.
But here's the thing: The Red Sox have to solve it themselves.
Yes, Andrew Bailey might be back for the final weeks of the season, and Carl Crawford could be back by the end of the month. But they aren't trading for Joel Hanrahan anytime soon; Mahatma Gandhi isn't walking through the door to promote internal peace.
There is a building tide of discontent swirling in Boston over this team, and it will crash on them quickly unless there is rapid change. Valentine really doesn't have the power to make that happen. Only the Red Sox players can.
Josh Beckett's start Saturday looked a lot like last September, writes Dan Shaughnessy. Kevin Youkilis is really struggling.
Beckett's effort was not fine for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
It was a big day for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, writes Tom Gage. Doug Fister is headed to the disabled list, which means somebody will have to step into the Detroit rotation. Considering Duane Below's strong relief effort Saturday, and the fact that he was competing for the rotation in spring training, you have to wonder whether he'll get the call.
From ESPN Stats and Info: Beckett had allowed six total earned runs in his previous five starts against the Tigers.
Beckett also allowed five home runs Saturday, tied for most allowed in a single game in his career (Aug. 23, 2009 vs. Yankees).
Last season, Beckett did not give up his fifth home run until June 28.
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
Beckett is the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1900) to allow at least five home runs in a game within his team's first two games of the season.
• Yoenis Cespedes has hit homers in his past three games. Within Steve Kroner's piece, Oakland manager Bob Melvin echoes something that GM Billy Beane said last week: Cespedes does a great job of leaving bad at-bats behind him:
- Cespedes didn't put the ball in play against [Felix] Hernandez, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. A's manager Bob Melvin appreciated Cespedes' ability to deliver after he had struggled early in the game.
Said Melvin: "What you'd like to see from anybody is, you have a couple of bad at-bats but you're still able to come through later in the game and not let that get you down.
"He certainly looks to be that type of player."
• Standing on the field before the Royals' opener the other day, pitching coach Dave Eiland said he thought Luke Hochevar is in for a really good year, because he had made some adjustments, putting his arm in position to drive the ball on a downward plane. Eiland is certainly right, so far: Hochevar shut down the Angels.
• If Zack Greinke is going to rebuild his market value so that he might have a chance to get the kind of whopper deal that Matt Cain landed, two things have to happen:
1. He's got to pitch well, which he did Saturday, in shutting down the Cardinals. The general perception of him among evaluators last season was that he had a very mediocre first season with the Brewers, and he didn't pitch to his ability.
2. He's got to alter the perception that he can be a troublesome clubhouse presence, a reputation he earned in his years with the Royals. A lot of teammates there thought he was not invested in the rest of them. There are already some teams who won't consider Greinke because of the uneven nature of his exit from Kansas City.
Look, a lot of players -- a lot of people -- change as they get older. If there is perceived change in Greinke, it'll help his new agent, Casey Close, a whole lot.
Greinke made his first start count, writes Michael Hunt.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Greinke won:
A. Sixty-one of his 91 pitches (67.0 percent) were down in the zone or below it, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2009.
B. Twelve of the 17 balls in play (70.6 percent) against Greinke were hit on the ground, Greinke's highest percentage since Sept. 8, 2010.
C. Greinke went to just one 2-0 count and no 3-0 counts, and did not have a plate appearance last longer than six pitches.
D. Cardinals hitters were 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a breaking ball from Greinke.
• A pitch in the dirt was pivotal for the Blue Jays on Saturday, writes Bob Elliott. The Jays are a well-managed, well-coached team, but beyond that, they seem to have a very high degree of focus. They are invested.
How Brandon Morrow flirted with a no-hitter, from ESPN Stats and Info:
A. The Indians started eight lefties, and 68.5 percent of the pitches they saw from Morrow were on the outer third of the plate or further outside. Last season, just less than half of the pitches Morrow threw to lefties were outside.
B. Ten of the 18 balls in play (55.6 percent) against Morrow were hit on the ground, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2011.
C. Morrow got 29 called strikes, his highest total since the start of 2009.
• Lucas Harrell outdueled a 49-year-old.
• Kendrys Morales looks great.
From ESPN Stats and Info: By The Numbers
5: Players with multi-homer games, matching the most multi-homer games from any day last season; there were four days last year with five such games.
7: No-hit bids that Ubaldo Jimenez and Brandon Morrow have taken past the fourth inning since 2010 (most in MLB).
10: Runs the Tigers scored in their 10-0 win over the Red Sox. It's the most runs they're scored in a shutout win versus the Red Sox since a 13-0 win in 1948 (tied for third-largest shutout win all time vs. the Red Sox).
512: Home runs Jamie Moyer has allowed in his career (most all time).
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are making progress in their respective rehab stints.
2. Top draft pick Anthony Rendon was hurt, Adam Kilgore writes.
3. Clayton Kershaw is feeling better.
4. Carlos Quentin is getting closer to coming back.
5. A Twins pitcher was scratched from his start because of food poisoning, Brian Murphy writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The mystery is over: Hector Santiago is the White Sox's closer.
2. Mike Matheny plans to make some lineup changes.
3. Ned Yost is matching up his catchers, Bob Dutton writes.
4. As expected, Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped his appeal.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Brett Lawrie was The Man for the Blue Jays.
2. Chad Tracy is already a Nationals legend in 2012.
3. The Phillies fell on a close play. The lack of offense has been a problem for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.
4. Hiroki Kuroda had a bad day.
5. Joe Nathan played a cat-and-mouse game, and lost.
6. The Braves are off to their first 0-2 start in four years, David O'Brien writes.
7. Dee Gordon stole three bases and helped the Dodgers win in extras.
8. Dan Haren was shaky.
9. The Giants dug an early hole for themselves again.
10. The Padres put together a crazy rally, but still lost.
11. The Mariners overcame a rough start by Felix Hernandez.
12. The Twins played badly, again, Joe Christensen writes. These Twins look a lot like the 99-loss team of a year ago, writes Jim Souhan.
13. Luke Scott provided some punch at the plate. Joe Maddon acted on a hunch.
14. The Marlins broke out.
15. The Reds lost in Mat Latos' debut.
16. The White Sox won Paul Konerko's 2,000th game.
17. The Cubs had another bullpen blowup. Matt Garza took some blame.
18. Ubaldo Jimenez threw well, but the Indians squandered the effort. There is reason for optimism after his start, writes Bill Livingston.
19. Jamie Moyer had a bad day.
20. Lucas Duda mashed two HRs, Andy Martino writes.
21. The Orioles are perfect so far.
Angels looking like MLB's best team.
Spoiler [+]
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- A scout lounged in a seat in the home plate horseshoe here before the Angels played Friday, and joined the growing chorus of folks who believe Albert Pujols' team -- the team of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana -- is the best in baseball.
"Because they have everything," he said. "Starting pitching. Power. Speed. The best outfield defense. Eventually, they'll get [prospect Mike] Trout up here, and they'll get better. There's room to grow."
A few hours later, Pujols wore a huge smile after his first win with the Angels, sharing handshakes and high-fives with new teammates; there should be a lot of success here this summer.
Whether Mark Trumbo can make a successful shift to third base remains an open question; he made two errors Friday, seemingly squeezing the ball a little too tightly and throwing the ball away for the first error, and then overrunning a foul popup for the second. Meanwhile, Jordan Walden continues to try to establish himself as a viable closer. The key, the Angels believe, is for him to throw strikes with his breaking ball; when that happens, he is dominant.
The Angels will have to settle the Bobby Abreu situation soon, and presumably, that will be when they see that Kendrys Morales can be counted on. For now, Abreu is a left-handed hitting safety net, and while he has been outspoken in his desire to play more, his dissatisfaction won't become a cancer; he's viewed by others as a positive, supportive teammate.
The Angels' players seem to possess the same confidence that oozes off the St. Louis Cardinals this spring: They know they're talented and they are throwing themselves into their work to ensure their success. Torii Hunter had met Pujols before this year, of course, but Hunter said that what surprises him the most, in being around the slugger daily, is how hard Pujols works.
In this group of Angels, he fits right in. The scout may be right.
Angels fans arrived early to see Pujols take batting practice, and they plan to stay late, writes Bill Plaschke. It took awhile for the Angels to get it going, but they figured it out, writes Bill Plunkett. Pujols' favorite thing from the game: "The win."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Greg Holland allowed just two of 33 inherited runners to score in 2011. And on Friday night, he allowed three inherited runners to score in a decisive eighth inning. The season has started, and there are no silver linings now, writes Sam Mellinger.
• MLB officials keep waiting to see the fine print on the Dodgers' sale, and privately, some team executives worry that the specifics will be an issue.
Some paperwork on the sale of the Dodgers was filed on Friday, as Bill Shaikin writes, and it showed that Frank McCourt is going to make a whole lot of money -- but there were few details about the financing of the deal. Readers of the L.A. Times were not happy that Magic Johnson was hanging out with Frank McCourt. The change in leadership could come by the end of the month, writes Richard Sandomir.
• The Royals are as loose and self-deprecating a bunch as you will find in the majors. Soft-tossing lefty Bruce Chen wears a T-shirt that has a Royals crown on the front, with the word "DominaChen." On the back, it reads, "83 By You." As in, 83 mph.
• This bit of interesting news was obscured by Opening Day stuff: Rays owner Stuart Sternberg says stadium talks are progressing, as Ira Kaufman writes.
• A tension remains in the Red Sox clubhouse, and while much has been made of Bobby Valentine's arrival this spring, I think a lot of the problems stem back to last season's collapse and unresolved issues between some teammates. The division is too difficult for the Red Sox to succeed unless they're all pulling in the same direction. Boston's problems need immediate fixing, because the team's first 15 games are against the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. A bad start -- following last September's collapse -- will set off an angry-fan frenzy.
Josh Beckett's season begins today.
• Some rival hitters -- who shall go unnamed -- texted each other after Justin Masterson's first start and agreed completely on this point: Masterson has climbed into a higher echelon of pitchers. "He's figured it out," said one of them. "Just nasty."
• The Marlins remain confident that they'll bust out. Miami had seven hits and nine total bases in the first two games, but even if the Marlins aren't a dynamic offensive team -- and their home park won't help -- they really won't be at a major disadvantage in their own division. Last year, NL East teams ranked 12th, 13th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th among 30 teams in runs scored, with the injury-plagued Mets leading the division. Since the Phillies' Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are out with injuries, and in light of the various issues with other teams, it looks to be a division of strong pitching and run-starved offenses.
• I was lucky enough to see six teams in three days, and of all the stuff we saw, what jumped out the most was how good the Cardinals look. They killed the Brewers on Friday, as Derrick Goold writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Jose Contreras had a shaky rehab outing, writes Bob Brookover.
2. A.J. Burnett seems to be making a lot of progress in his rehab.
3. Clayton Kershaw figures he'll be good to go on Tuesday, after a flu crushed him on Opening Day.
4. Scott Baker is going to get a second opinion on his elbow, writes Joe Christensen.
5. Chipper Jones had a positive step in his rehab.
6. Andrew Bailey jinxed himself.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Pirates will keep their approach on Opening Day.
2. Even Pete Rose is talking about the Joey Votto contract.
3. The Mariners ranked 18th in payroll.
4. The Rockies view Dexter Fowler as a work in progress, and if he doesn't hit, they won't be afraid to turn to Tyler Colvin, Troy Renck writes within this piece.
5. Pablo Sandoval is the Giants' emergency catcher.
6. Clues from the first day of the season point to Hector Santiago being the White Sox closer.
From ESPN Stats & Information, by the numbers:
4 -- Ryan Braun is the fourth reigning NL MVP in the past 25 seasons to go hitless on Opening Day .
8 -- Career Opening Day home runs for Adam Dunn (tied with Frank Robinson and Ken Griffey Jr. for most all time).
13 -- Todd Helton has hit safely in 13 straight Opening Day games, the longest current streak.
27 -- Mariano Rivera's consecutive saves versus Rays before Friday.
78 -- Runs scored Friday (8.7 runs per game). In the previous 10 games this season, 47 runs were scored (4.7 runs per game)
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. The Rangers got a jump-start from Ian Kinsler and Colby Lewis. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lewis beat the White Sox:
A. Threw 32 sliders, getting six of his nine strikeouts with that pitch.
B. Went out of the strike zone with 19 two-strike pitches; the White Sox went 1-for-9 with eight strikeouts in at-bats ending with two strikes out of the strike zone.
C. Kept the White Sox on base when they got to scoring position. Chicago went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in at-bats with runners in scoring position.
2. The Rays got big hits from Carlos Pena and got good work from their bullpen.
From Elias: Friday marked the first time the Yankees lost an Opening Day game in which they blew a ninth-inning lead since 1934, when they blew a 5-4 lead and lost to the Philadelphia Athletics 6-5.
The Yankees had their guts ripped out. The Rays created memories at the Yankees' expense, writes Joel Sherman.
3. The Mariners got their bats going, writes Geoff Baker.
4. The D-Backs figured out Tim Lincecum, again. Chris Young hit in the No. 2 spot, and it paid off, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Eric Young's speed helped the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
6. Chad Billingsley was The Man for the Dodgers.
7. Oakland lost, but Yoenis Cespedes clubbed a long home run, and is putting on a show, as John Shea writes.
Friday's longest home runs:
Yoenis Cespedes -- 462 feet (first in majors this season)
Adam Dunn -- 449 (2nd)
Carlos Pena -- 431 (6th)
George Kottaras -- 425 (7th)
Paul Goldschmidt -- 419 (8th)
8. Lincecum's season started with a crooked number, as Henry Schulman writes.
9. Cory Luebke had a tough day, as Bill Center writes. The good vibes of spring have dissipated, writes Dan Hayes.
10. The Brewers had a really bad first day.
11. There were problems for Carl Pavano in the first inning.
12. The White Sox racked up 13 strikeouts -- not the good kind.
13. The Astros kicked the ball around.
14. Jake Arrieta was The Man for the Orioles. Nick Markakis' opposite-field homer is a really good sign.
"Because they have everything," he said. "Starting pitching. Power. Speed. The best outfield defense. Eventually, they'll get [prospect Mike] Trout up here, and they'll get better. There's room to grow."
A few hours later, Pujols wore a huge smile after his first win with the Angels, sharing handshakes and high-fives with new teammates; there should be a lot of success here this summer.
Whether Mark Trumbo can make a successful shift to third base remains an open question; he made two errors Friday, seemingly squeezing the ball a little too tightly and throwing the ball away for the first error, and then overrunning a foul popup for the second. Meanwhile, Jordan Walden continues to try to establish himself as a viable closer. The key, the Angels believe, is for him to throw strikes with his breaking ball; when that happens, he is dominant.
The Angels will have to settle the Bobby Abreu situation soon, and presumably, that will be when they see that Kendrys Morales can be counted on. For now, Abreu is a left-handed hitting safety net, and while he has been outspoken in his desire to play more, his dissatisfaction won't become a cancer; he's viewed by others as a positive, supportive teammate.
The Angels' players seem to possess the same confidence that oozes off the St. Louis Cardinals this spring: They know they're talented and they are throwing themselves into their work to ensure their success. Torii Hunter had met Pujols before this year, of course, but Hunter said that what surprises him the most, in being around the slugger daily, is how hard Pujols works.
In this group of Angels, he fits right in. The scout may be right.
Angels fans arrived early to see Pujols take batting practice, and they plan to stay late, writes Bill Plaschke. It took awhile for the Angels to get it going, but they figured it out, writes Bill Plunkett. Pujols' favorite thing from the game: "The win."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Greg Holland allowed just two of 33 inherited runners to score in 2011. And on Friday night, he allowed three inherited runners to score in a decisive eighth inning. The season has started, and there are no silver linings now, writes Sam Mellinger.
• MLB officials keep waiting to see the fine print on the Dodgers' sale, and privately, some team executives worry that the specifics will be an issue.
Some paperwork on the sale of the Dodgers was filed on Friday, as Bill Shaikin writes, and it showed that Frank McCourt is going to make a whole lot of money -- but there were few details about the financing of the deal. Readers of the L.A. Times were not happy that Magic Johnson was hanging out with Frank McCourt. The change in leadership could come by the end of the month, writes Richard Sandomir.
• The Royals are as loose and self-deprecating a bunch as you will find in the majors. Soft-tossing lefty Bruce Chen wears a T-shirt that has a Royals crown on the front, with the word "DominaChen." On the back, it reads, "83 By You." As in, 83 mph.
• This bit of interesting news was obscured by Opening Day stuff: Rays owner Stuart Sternberg says stadium talks are progressing, as Ira Kaufman writes.
• A tension remains in the Red Sox clubhouse, and while much has been made of Bobby Valentine's arrival this spring, I think a lot of the problems stem back to last season's collapse and unresolved issues between some teammates. The division is too difficult for the Red Sox to succeed unless they're all pulling in the same direction. Boston's problems need immediate fixing, because the team's first 15 games are against the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. A bad start -- following last September's collapse -- will set off an angry-fan frenzy.
Josh Beckett's season begins today.
• Some rival hitters -- who shall go unnamed -- texted each other after Justin Masterson's first start and agreed completely on this point: Masterson has climbed into a higher echelon of pitchers. "He's figured it out," said one of them. "Just nasty."
• The Marlins remain confident that they'll bust out. Miami had seven hits and nine total bases in the first two games, but even if the Marlins aren't a dynamic offensive team -- and their home park won't help -- they really won't be at a major disadvantage in their own division. Last year, NL East teams ranked 12th, 13th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th among 30 teams in runs scored, with the injury-plagued Mets leading the division. Since the Phillies' Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are out with injuries, and in light of the various issues with other teams, it looks to be a division of strong pitching and run-starved offenses.
• I was lucky enough to see six teams in three days, and of all the stuff we saw, what jumped out the most was how good the Cardinals look. They killed the Brewers on Friday, as Derrick Goold writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Jose Contreras had a shaky rehab outing, writes Bob Brookover.
2. A.J. Burnett seems to be making a lot of progress in his rehab.
3. Clayton Kershaw figures he'll be good to go on Tuesday, after a flu crushed him on Opening Day.
4. Scott Baker is going to get a second opinion on his elbow, writes Joe Christensen.
5. Chipper Jones had a positive step in his rehab.
6. Andrew Bailey jinxed himself.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Pirates will keep their approach on Opening Day.
2. Even Pete Rose is talking about the Joey Votto contract.
3. The Mariners ranked 18th in payroll.
4. The Rockies view Dexter Fowler as a work in progress, and if he doesn't hit, they won't be afraid to turn to Tyler Colvin, Troy Renck writes within this piece.
5. Pablo Sandoval is the Giants' emergency catcher.
6. Clues from the first day of the season point to Hector Santiago being the White Sox closer.
From ESPN Stats & Information, by the numbers:
4 -- Ryan Braun is the fourth reigning NL MVP in the past 25 seasons to go hitless on Opening Day .
8 -- Career Opening Day home runs for Adam Dunn (tied with Frank Robinson and Ken Griffey Jr. for most all time).
13 -- Todd Helton has hit safely in 13 straight Opening Day games, the longest current streak.
27 -- Mariano Rivera's consecutive saves versus Rays before Friday.
78 -- Runs scored Friday (8.7 runs per game). In the previous 10 games this season, 47 runs were scored (4.7 runs per game)
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. The Rangers got a jump-start from Ian Kinsler and Colby Lewis. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lewis beat the White Sox:
A. Threw 32 sliders, getting six of his nine strikeouts with that pitch.
B. Went out of the strike zone with 19 two-strike pitches; the White Sox went 1-for-9 with eight strikeouts in at-bats ending with two strikes out of the strike zone.
C. Kept the White Sox on base when they got to scoring position. Chicago went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in at-bats with runners in scoring position.
2. The Rays got big hits from Carlos Pena and got good work from their bullpen.
From Elias: Friday marked the first time the Yankees lost an Opening Day game in which they blew a ninth-inning lead since 1934, when they blew a 5-4 lead and lost to the Philadelphia Athletics 6-5.
The Yankees had their guts ripped out. The Rays created memories at the Yankees' expense, writes Joel Sherman.
3. The Mariners got their bats going, writes Geoff Baker.
4. The D-Backs figured out Tim Lincecum, again. Chris Young hit in the No. 2 spot, and it paid off, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Eric Young's speed helped the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
6. Chad Billingsley was The Man for the Dodgers.
7. Oakland lost, but Yoenis Cespedes clubbed a long home run, and is putting on a show, as John Shea writes.
Friday's longest home runs:
Yoenis Cespedes -- 462 feet (first in majors this season)
Adam Dunn -- 449 (2nd)
Carlos Pena -- 431 (6th)
George Kottaras -- 425 (7th)
Paul Goldschmidt -- 419 (8th)
8. Lincecum's season started with a crooked number, as Henry Schulman writes.
9. Cory Luebke had a tough day, as Bill Center writes. The good vibes of spring have dissipated, writes Dan Hayes.
10. The Brewers had a really bad first day.
11. There were problems for Carl Pavano in the first inning.
12. The White Sox racked up 13 strikeouts -- not the good kind.
13. The Astros kicked the ball around.
14. Jake Arrieta was The Man for the Orioles. Nick Markakis' opposite-field homer is a really good sign.
For six contenders, D is the key.
Spoiler [+]
Before the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals jettisoned all-glove shortstop Brendan Ryan and brought in Ryan Theriot. Theriot proved that he could neither hit nor play shortstop well, so the Cardinals were forced to make a trade deadline deal to bring in veteran Rafael Furcal. Still a solid defensive shortstop at 33, Furcal represented an upgrade for an infield which struggled behind heavy ground-ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook.
Of course, the Cardinals made one of the more remarkable turnarounds in September history to squeak into the playoffs en route to their second World Series title this century.
While Theriot's defensive struggles nearly cost the Cardinals a shot at October, Furcal played a large part in the late-season surge. Here are six teams whose defense, good or bad, could make the difference in their playoff chances.
[h3]Teams whose defense could cost them a playoff spot[/h3]
Detroit Tigers
While a lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder is intimidating, an infield featuring both hulking sluggers is far from it. In his last two seasons in Florida (2006 and '07), Cabrera played third base every day and cost the Marlins an estimated 29 runs (according to our runs saved metric) compared to an average third baseman. Around his 25th birthday, Cabrera played 14 games at third before the Tigers were forced to move him across the diamond to first base. Ever since, Cabrera has been a consistently below-average first baseman.
Four years later, an older and heavier Cabrera is going against all odds. If Cabrera can return to his 2008 form, he'd cost the Tigers 20 runs compared to an average third baseman over a full season -- equivalent to roughly two wins in the standings. More than likely, Cabrera will show some effects of age and rust at the hot corner, and his actual defensive performance could be much worse.
Furthermore, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is no defensive specialist himself and won't be able to cover for Cabrera's shortcomings. If the move isn't going well, manager Jim Leyland could move Cabrera to the DH role currently occupied by Delmon Young. However, Young would then be forced into left field, where he is a liability and a downgrade from Andy Dirks and Ryan Raburn in the field. Raburn would then play more regularly at second base, where he is a defensive liability compared to Ramon Santiago. The domino effect could be catastrophic.
Regardless of how much time Cabrera spends at third base, Fielder also represents a troublesome downgrade at first. Fielder's minus-26 defensive runs saved since 2009 ranks him ahead of only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard as the worst defensive first baseman. Depending on how the shuffling plays out, the addition of Fielder could result in a drop of 30 or 40 runs saved from last year's defense, meaning an additional 30-40 runs allowed by Tigers fielders.
While the Tigers' pitchers' will appreciate the extra run support, they won't be so happy when ground balls continually find holes -- especially sinkerballer Rick Porcello -- and their ERAs balloon as a result.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a splash this offseason with big free-agent signings, but the league's worst defensive team from 2011 still has a number of glaring weaknesses. Neither Jose Reyes nor Hanley Ramirez rate well defensively at shortstop, largely due to their relative inability to make the play on the ball in the hole. Hanley will benefit from the move to third, but even when healthy, the two players will allow more than their share of hits.
While Giancarlo Stanton has been an asset in right field, Logan Morrison rated as baseball's worst left fielder (minus-26 runs saved) last season, and Emilio Bonifacio is a question mark in center. With the deep power allies of the new ballpark, the Marlins' outfield unit will be challenged on many potential extra base hits in the gaps.
These combined weaknesses on the left side of the diamond could prevent the Marlins from making the leap into contention in 2012.
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are devastating to the Phillies' lineup, but their absence will also be felt on defense. Howard tops only Adam Dunn on the three-year defensive runs saved list at first base, but sticking Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome out there every day isn't going to be any better.
Additionally, the Phillies are going to miss Utley's athleticism and instincts in the field no matter who they stick at second base. Add these significant injuries to a defensive unit that is getting old fast, and you've got plenty of reason to worry in Philadelphia.
Once an elite shortstop, Jimmy Rollins is as sure-handed as ever, but he has lost a couple of steps going to his right. Shane Victorino has also dropped off from his Gold Glove days in center. While the pitching staff is good enough to carry the team until Utley and Howard return, any further setbacks could spell doom for the Phillies in a much more competitive NL East.
[h3]Teams whose defense could push them into October[/h3]
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have established themselves as baseball's best defensive team, and it's not even close. According to our updated defensive runs saved numbers in "The Fielding Bible: Volume III," Rays fielders were a combined 85 runs better than average, and more than 30 runs better than the second-best defense (the Diamondbacks). Without the budget to sign impact bats and arms on the free-agent market, the Rays have set the new standard for finding cheap value players, especially defensive-minded acquisitions.
Additionally, the Rays have a sophisticated positioning scheme, indicated by their motto "we catch line drives." More than any other team, the Rays have made a habit of employing a dramatic shift against heavy pull hitters, who are especially common in the AL East. In a division with the perennially contending Red Sox and Yankees and the rapidly improving Blue Jays, every little tactical edge can make a difference.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' defensive alignment has no weakness. The infield includes four above-average defenders: Scott Rolen, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The outfield includes average defenders Ryan Ludwick and Drew Stubbs as well as an inconsistent but more-good-than-bad Jay Bruce in right field. In a division where the Cardinals and Brewers lost two of the best hitters in baseball, the Reds should find themselves right back in the thick of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Heading into 2011, the Brewers' starting infield of Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee was projected to be the worst defensive unit in baseball. However, new manager Ron Roenicke embraced "the shift," and the four infielders improved a combined 56 defensive runs saved over their 2010 totals. The Brewers not only shifted against the Ryan Howards and Carlos Penas of the world, but also employed radical defensive alignments against right-handed hitters like Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
General manager Doug Melvin recently commented at the SABR Analytics Conference that the Brewers were encouraged by the results and might be even more aggressive with the shift in 2012. They'll need all the help they can get, replacing Fielder and McGehee with two more defensive liabilities in Mat Gamel and Aramis Ramirez.
Ben Jedlovec is a research analyst with Baseball Info Solutions and co-author of The Fielding Bible -- Volume III. You can follow him on Twitter @BenJedlovec.
Of course, the Cardinals made one of the more remarkable turnarounds in September history to squeak into the playoffs en route to their second World Series title this century.
While Theriot's defensive struggles nearly cost the Cardinals a shot at October, Furcal played a large part in the late-season surge. Here are six teams whose defense, good or bad, could make the difference in their playoff chances.
[h3]Teams whose defense could cost them a playoff spot[/h3]
Detroit Tigers
While a lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder is intimidating, an infield featuring both hulking sluggers is far from it. In his last two seasons in Florida (2006 and '07), Cabrera played third base every day and cost the Marlins an estimated 29 runs (according to our runs saved metric) compared to an average third baseman. Around his 25th birthday, Cabrera played 14 games at third before the Tigers were forced to move him across the diamond to first base. Ever since, Cabrera has been a consistently below-average first baseman.
Four years later, an older and heavier Cabrera is going against all odds. If Cabrera can return to his 2008 form, he'd cost the Tigers 20 runs compared to an average third baseman over a full season -- equivalent to roughly two wins in the standings. More than likely, Cabrera will show some effects of age and rust at the hot corner, and his actual defensive performance could be much worse.
Furthermore, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is no defensive specialist himself and won't be able to cover for Cabrera's shortcomings. If the move isn't going well, manager Jim Leyland could move Cabrera to the DH role currently occupied by Delmon Young. However, Young would then be forced into left field, where he is a liability and a downgrade from Andy Dirks and Ryan Raburn in the field. Raburn would then play more regularly at second base, where he is a defensive liability compared to Ramon Santiago. The domino effect could be catastrophic.
Regardless of how much time Cabrera spends at third base, Fielder also represents a troublesome downgrade at first. Fielder's minus-26 defensive runs saved since 2009 ranks him ahead of only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard as the worst defensive first baseman. Depending on how the shuffling plays out, the addition of Fielder could result in a drop of 30 or 40 runs saved from last year's defense, meaning an additional 30-40 runs allowed by Tigers fielders.
While the Tigers' pitchers' will appreciate the extra run support, they won't be so happy when ground balls continually find holes -- especially sinkerballer Rick Porcello -- and their ERAs balloon as a result.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a splash this offseason with big free-agent signings, but the league's worst defensive team from 2011 still has a number of glaring weaknesses. Neither Jose Reyes nor Hanley Ramirez rate well defensively at shortstop, largely due to their relative inability to make the play on the ball in the hole. Hanley will benefit from the move to third, but even when healthy, the two players will allow more than their share of hits.
While Giancarlo Stanton has been an asset in right field, Logan Morrison rated as baseball's worst left fielder (minus-26 runs saved) last season, and Emilio Bonifacio is a question mark in center. With the deep power allies of the new ballpark, the Marlins' outfield unit will be challenged on many potential extra base hits in the gaps.
These combined weaknesses on the left side of the diamond could prevent the Marlins from making the leap into contention in 2012.
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are devastating to the Phillies' lineup, but their absence will also be felt on defense. Howard tops only Adam Dunn on the three-year defensive runs saved list at first base, but sticking Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome out there every day isn't going to be any better.
Additionally, the Phillies are going to miss Utley's athleticism and instincts in the field no matter who they stick at second base. Add these significant injuries to a defensive unit that is getting old fast, and you've got plenty of reason to worry in Philadelphia.
Once an elite shortstop, Jimmy Rollins is as sure-handed as ever, but he has lost a couple of steps going to his right. Shane Victorino has also dropped off from his Gold Glove days in center. While the pitching staff is good enough to carry the team until Utley and Howard return, any further setbacks could spell doom for the Phillies in a much more competitive NL East.
[h3]Teams whose defense could push them into October[/h3]
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have established themselves as baseball's best defensive team, and it's not even close. According to our updated defensive runs saved numbers in "The Fielding Bible: Volume III," Rays fielders were a combined 85 runs better than average, and more than 30 runs better than the second-best defense (the Diamondbacks). Without the budget to sign impact bats and arms on the free-agent market, the Rays have set the new standard for finding cheap value players, especially defensive-minded acquisitions.
Additionally, the Rays have a sophisticated positioning scheme, indicated by their motto "we catch line drives." More than any other team, the Rays have made a habit of employing a dramatic shift against heavy pull hitters, who are especially common in the AL East. In a division with the perennially contending Red Sox and Yankees and the rapidly improving Blue Jays, every little tactical edge can make a difference.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' defensive alignment has no weakness. The infield includes four above-average defenders: Scott Rolen, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The outfield includes average defenders Ryan Ludwick and Drew Stubbs as well as an inconsistent but more-good-than-bad Jay Bruce in right field. In a division where the Cardinals and Brewers lost two of the best hitters in baseball, the Reds should find themselves right back in the thick of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Heading into 2011, the Brewers' starting infield of Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee was projected to be the worst defensive unit in baseball. However, new manager Ron Roenicke embraced "the shift," and the four infielders improved a combined 56 defensive runs saved over their 2010 totals. The Brewers not only shifted against the Ryan Howards and Carlos Penas of the world, but also employed radical defensive alignments against right-handed hitters like Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
General manager Doug Melvin recently commented at the SABR Analytics Conference that the Brewers were encouraged by the results and might be even more aggressive with the shift in 2012. They'll need all the help they can get, replacing Fielder and McGehee with two more defensive liabilities in Mat Gamel and Aramis Ramirez.
Ben Jedlovec is a research analyst with Baseball Info Solutions and co-author of The Fielding Bible -- Volume III. You can follow him on Twitter @BenJedlovec.
NL East shake-up.
Josh Hamilton's risky move.
Boston Red Sox are in trouble already.
Angels looking like MLB's best team.
For six contenders, D is the key.
Spoiler [+]
It's far too early to get worked up about the season. Everything we thought we knew might change in the next six months, as it frequently does, and a three-game winning streak is a blip on the radar. Just look back to last season, when, after losing on Opening Day, the New York Mets promptly reeled off three straight wins. Later in April, they won six in a row. During the next five months, they won at least three games in a row on 10 separate occasions. Yet they finished with a 77-85 record.
Still, it's hard not to be encouraged by what we saw from the Mets in these first three games, as they swept the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. And if you're a Braves fan, you have to be at least a bit concerned by what you saw. The voters of the ESPN.com Power Rankings were clearly moved by the results of the series, as they now have the Mets at No. 17, ahead of the Braves at No. 23. Sounds crazy, yes, but if a year ago today you had said: "The Arizona Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL West," you would have been laughed at. But it turned out to be true in 2011. So for 2012, is there a chance the Mets are actually the better team?
Let's start by looking at the Mets. While Johan Santana tired quickly on Opening Day, he pitched well, and his endurance should build as the season progresses. Since Santana broke through as a starter, he has never had a single-season FIP worse than 3.82. But after a year away from the majors, it was hard to know what he would bring to the table. The six projections listed for him at FanGraphs averaged to a 3.75 FIP, but they ranged from 3.42 on the low end to 4.47 on the high end. The big variable, of course, will be how effective Santana can be with reduced velocity, as pitchers with surgically repaired shoulders don't throw as hard as they did before the operation. The very early returns are good, as he generated swings and misses on all of his pitches. Santana's days of league domination are long behind him, but if he can be a league-average pitcher, the Mets would benefit immensely. Last season, the NL-average FIP for starting pitchers was 3.92. In R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets had two pitchers who were much better than that mark. Adding a third would boost the Mets further into the realm of respectability.
It wasn't just the starters who pitched well in this series for the Mets, though. In a weekend that saw both new and established closers implode repeatedly, Frank Francisco succeeded in being a nonstory. He saved all three games for the Metropolitans. He faced 11 batters and retired nine of them, striking out four and allowing just two singles. And he wasn't alone, as all told, the Mets' bullpen allowed just one run in 10 innings. Again, we're not going to pull out our jump-to-conclusions mats over 10 innings, but for a team whose pitching staff had more questions than answers just five days ago, it was a refreshing performance for a team that finished 28th in baseball in bullpen ERA last year. Truth is, the Mets' 'pen has nowhere to go but up.
On offense, New York has to be encouraged by David Wright, who was seemingly on base all weekend and appeared to be in 2008 form. The Mets' offense lacks star power elsewhere, but it is filled with players who are above-average in the OBP department relative to others at their position.
On the other side of that coin, we find the Braves, whose nine-spot drop in the rankings seems rash. Yes, they are 0-3, but they were outscored by five runs in three games, and road games at that. That is not a tragedy by any stretch, and while Dickey and Niese may not be household names, there is no shame in being held in check by either pitcher.
In scoring just two runs in the first two games, the Braves' offense -- or lack thereof -- was again in the spotlight, and after being no-hit for six innings on Sunday, the spotlight figures to keep shining on the Atlanta bats. But then the Braves broke out for four runs in the seventh, and added a fifth in the eighth when Brian McCann connected on his first round-tripper of the season.
Despite the outburst, the critics of Atlanta's offense are unlikely to vanish any time soon, but the Braves should have an improved offense this season. First, Jason Heyward should be much better than he was in 2011. Even his most modest of six projections at FanGraphs pegs Heyward for a .349 wOBA, which would be a 35-point bump from last season. Second, the team gets a full season of Michael Bourn in center field. While Bourn struggled in making the transition to Atlanta after his trade from Houston last season, he was still much better at the plate than Jordan Schafer. Should Bourn revert to his previously established level of play (he entered Sunday's action with a career .322 wOBA), he will be a substantial upgrade over the Schafer-Nate McLouth combo that the Braves featured in the first half of last season. Finally, by trading for Juan Francisco, the Braves were finally able to find a suitable, dedicated backup for Chipper Jones. Francisco has flashed above-average power throughout his pro career, and the Braves could very well be the beneficiaries of that this year in what should be Francisco's first full season in the majors.
Most important, Atlanta still has excellent pitching -- in the rotation and bullpen -- and that is still intact. One poor outing from Mike Minor doesn't change that.
So where does that leave the teams? If Santana can flash the form he showed on Thursday, or something close to it for 150-plus innings, the Mets will not be as bad as originally assumed. That said, it's still too early to proclaim them as better than the Braves. Even with the power outage in the first two games, Atlanta's offense should be better than last year, and its relegation to the bottom 10 in the power rankings will soon be a distant memory.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005, and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Still, it's hard not to be encouraged by what we saw from the Mets in these first three games, as they swept the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. And if you're a Braves fan, you have to be at least a bit concerned by what you saw. The voters of the ESPN.com Power Rankings were clearly moved by the results of the series, as they now have the Mets at No. 17, ahead of the Braves at No. 23. Sounds crazy, yes, but if a year ago today you had said: "The Arizona Diamondbacks are the best team in the NL West," you would have been laughed at. But it turned out to be true in 2011. So for 2012, is there a chance the Mets are actually the better team?
Let's start by looking at the Mets. While Johan Santana tired quickly on Opening Day, he pitched well, and his endurance should build as the season progresses. Since Santana broke through as a starter, he has never had a single-season FIP worse than 3.82. But after a year away from the majors, it was hard to know what he would bring to the table. The six projections listed for him at FanGraphs averaged to a 3.75 FIP, but they ranged from 3.42 on the low end to 4.47 on the high end. The big variable, of course, will be how effective Santana can be with reduced velocity, as pitchers with surgically repaired shoulders don't throw as hard as they did before the operation. The very early returns are good, as he generated swings and misses on all of his pitches. Santana's days of league domination are long behind him, but if he can be a league-average pitcher, the Mets would benefit immensely. Last season, the NL-average FIP for starting pitchers was 3.92. In R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese, the Mets had two pitchers who were much better than that mark. Adding a third would boost the Mets further into the realm of respectability.
It wasn't just the starters who pitched well in this series for the Mets, though. In a weekend that saw both new and established closers implode repeatedly, Frank Francisco succeeded in being a nonstory. He saved all three games for the Metropolitans. He faced 11 batters and retired nine of them, striking out four and allowing just two singles. And he wasn't alone, as all told, the Mets' bullpen allowed just one run in 10 innings. Again, we're not going to pull out our jump-to-conclusions mats over 10 innings, but for a team whose pitching staff had more questions than answers just five days ago, it was a refreshing performance for a team that finished 28th in baseball in bullpen ERA last year. Truth is, the Mets' 'pen has nowhere to go but up.
On offense, New York has to be encouraged by David Wright, who was seemingly on base all weekend and appeared to be in 2008 form. The Mets' offense lacks star power elsewhere, but it is filled with players who are above-average in the OBP department relative to others at their position.
On the other side of that coin, we find the Braves, whose nine-spot drop in the rankings seems rash. Yes, they are 0-3, but they were outscored by five runs in three games, and road games at that. That is not a tragedy by any stretch, and while Dickey and Niese may not be household names, there is no shame in being held in check by either pitcher.
In scoring just two runs in the first two games, the Braves' offense -- or lack thereof -- was again in the spotlight, and after being no-hit for six innings on Sunday, the spotlight figures to keep shining on the Atlanta bats. But then the Braves broke out for four runs in the seventh, and added a fifth in the eighth when Brian McCann connected on his first round-tripper of the season.
Despite the outburst, the critics of Atlanta's offense are unlikely to vanish any time soon, but the Braves should have an improved offense this season. First, Jason Heyward should be much better than he was in 2011. Even his most modest of six projections at FanGraphs pegs Heyward for a .349 wOBA, which would be a 35-point bump from last season. Second, the team gets a full season of Michael Bourn in center field. While Bourn struggled in making the transition to Atlanta after his trade from Houston last season, he was still much better at the plate than Jordan Schafer. Should Bourn revert to his previously established level of play (he entered Sunday's action with a career .322 wOBA), he will be a substantial upgrade over the Schafer-Nate McLouth combo that the Braves featured in the first half of last season. Finally, by trading for Juan Francisco, the Braves were finally able to find a suitable, dedicated backup for Chipper Jones. Francisco has flashed above-average power throughout his pro career, and the Braves could very well be the beneficiaries of that this year in what should be Francisco's first full season in the majors.
Most important, Atlanta still has excellent pitching -- in the rotation and bullpen -- and that is still intact. One poor outing from Mike Minor doesn't change that.
So where does that leave the teams? If Santana can flash the form he showed on Thursday, or something close to it for 150-plus innings, the Mets will not be as bad as originally assumed. That said, it's still too early to proclaim them as better than the Braves. Even with the power outage in the first two games, Atlanta's offense should be better than last year, and its relegation to the bottom 10 in the power rankings will soon be a distant memory.
Paul Swydan covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has been writing about baseball for various publications since 2005, and can most frequently be found writing for FanGraphs. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Josh Hamilton's risky move.
Spoiler [+]
Entering a contract season, the Texas Rangers want to make sure they get as much value from Josh Hamilton as possible before he hits the open market. That's one big reason why Hamilton will move back to his original position as a center fielder after spending the past two seasons as a left fielder for the Rangers. While the Rangers initially moved Hamilton to left in order to keep him healthier, and Hamilton may prefer to play center, the move could cost him millions on the free-agent market.
Unfortunately, the Rangers don't have many other options in center. Julio Borbon, has never really hit in the majors and was sent down to Triple-A to start the season. They also have prospect Leonys Martin, but Ron Washington said in early April that Martin will likely spend most of this season in the minors. Craig Gentry will be a sub/defensive replacement for them this year. Playing Hamilton in center will allow the team to optimize their lineup offensively.
Hamilton is one of the most talented players in the game, but he's always had issues staying healthy. While he was healthy his first season with the Rangers, injuries limited Hamilton to just 89 games in his second year, when he crashed into the wall while playing center field in April. Hamilton was placed on the 15-day DL after the incident, but it lingered the entire season. He returned in early May, but on June 1, Hamilton was put back on the DL with abdominal issues suffered during the same incident. The next season, the team moved Hamilton to left field and the decision paid huge dividends for both Hamilton and the Rangers. He has managed to play 133 and 121 games the past two years and, not coincidentally, has posted the two best seasons of his career during that time, winning the AL MVP award in 2010.
But the decision for Hamilton to move back to center field is puzzling considered the mega-deals handed out to Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth in 2010. In the three seasons prior to hitting free agency, Crawford had compiled 16.3 WAR compared to Werth's 15.8. The past two seasons alone, Hamilton has been worth 12.7 WAR. Hamilton has averaged about 4.2 WAR per season. If he were to reach that limit again, he would have more value than either Crawford or Werth entering the free-agent market. And while teams might be hesitant to offer big money to a 32-year-old outfielder, Werth was the same age when he signed his seven-year, $126 million contact with the Washington Nationals.
While good corner outfielders can receive extremely lucrative deals on the market, it's tough to judge center fielders. Because up-the-middle players are typically more valuable to building a team, very few good center fielders reach the free-agent market. This offseason, Matt Kemp, Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutchen were all signed to long-term deals, ensuring they wouldn't reach the free-agent market anytime soon.
The last two significant free-agent contracts handed out to center fielders were received by Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter. But it's incredibly tough to compare either player to Hamilton. Assuming Hamilton registers at least his average WAR this year, his value over the three seasons preceding his free agency will far exceed that of Rowand and Hunter leading up to their signings. Rowand accumulated 11.4 WAR before hitting the market, while Hunter was worth just 8.3 WAR.
Unfortunately for Hamilton, he's slated to be a free agent when a few other talented center fielders will also be on the market. Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and B.J. Upton should all be popular commodities next offseason. Curtis Granderson could hit the market, but unless he completely collapses, his $13 million club option should be a no-brainer for the New York Yankees.
Hamilton may be the most talented player of that bunch, but all of those other center fielders who should hit the market are regarded as strong defensive players. Hamilton, on the other hand, doesn't rate well as a center fielder. Though Hamilton's career UZR is dragged down by a horrendous minus-15.4 in 2008, Hamilton has fluctuated between poor and barely passable in center. The advantage Hamilton thinks he would have by proving he can play center would be mitigated by the fact that there are much better defensive players on the market.
There's no doubt Hamilton is a special player, but his injury history makes signing him to a long-term deal a risky proposition. By moving to center field, Hamilton only increases the chances that he'll be injured again. Even though the Rangers may have nothing to lose since he could leave after the season, Hamilton may be costing himself millions by making the move.
Christopher Cwik is a writer for FanGraphs.
Unfortunately, the Rangers don't have many other options in center. Julio Borbon, has never really hit in the majors and was sent down to Triple-A to start the season. They also have prospect Leonys Martin, but Ron Washington said in early April that Martin will likely spend most of this season in the minors. Craig Gentry will be a sub/defensive replacement for them this year. Playing Hamilton in center will allow the team to optimize their lineup offensively.
Hamilton is one of the most talented players in the game, but he's always had issues staying healthy. While he was healthy his first season with the Rangers, injuries limited Hamilton to just 89 games in his second year, when he crashed into the wall while playing center field in April. Hamilton was placed on the 15-day DL after the incident, but it lingered the entire season. He returned in early May, but on June 1, Hamilton was put back on the DL with abdominal issues suffered during the same incident. The next season, the team moved Hamilton to left field and the decision paid huge dividends for both Hamilton and the Rangers. He has managed to play 133 and 121 games the past two years and, not coincidentally, has posted the two best seasons of his career during that time, winning the AL MVP award in 2010.
But the decision for Hamilton to move back to center field is puzzling considered the mega-deals handed out to Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth in 2010. In the three seasons prior to hitting free agency, Crawford had compiled 16.3 WAR compared to Werth's 15.8. The past two seasons alone, Hamilton has been worth 12.7 WAR. Hamilton has averaged about 4.2 WAR per season. If he were to reach that limit again, he would have more value than either Crawford or Werth entering the free-agent market. And while teams might be hesitant to offer big money to a 32-year-old outfielder, Werth was the same age when he signed his seven-year, $126 million contact with the Washington Nationals.
While good corner outfielders can receive extremely lucrative deals on the market, it's tough to judge center fielders. Because up-the-middle players are typically more valuable to building a team, very few good center fielders reach the free-agent market. This offseason, Matt Kemp, Cameron Maybin and Andrew McCutchen were all signed to long-term deals, ensuring they wouldn't reach the free-agent market anytime soon.
The last two significant free-agent contracts handed out to center fielders were received by Aaron Rowand and Torii Hunter. But it's incredibly tough to compare either player to Hamilton. Assuming Hamilton registers at least his average WAR this year, his value over the three seasons preceding his free agency will far exceed that of Rowand and Hunter leading up to their signings. Rowand accumulated 11.4 WAR before hitting the market, while Hunter was worth just 8.3 WAR.
Unfortunately for Hamilton, he's slated to be a free agent when a few other talented center fielders will also be on the market. Michael Bourn, Shane Victorino and B.J. Upton should all be popular commodities next offseason. Curtis Granderson could hit the market, but unless he completely collapses, his $13 million club option should be a no-brainer for the New York Yankees.
Hamilton may be the most talented player of that bunch, but all of those other center fielders who should hit the market are regarded as strong defensive players. Hamilton, on the other hand, doesn't rate well as a center fielder. Though Hamilton's career UZR is dragged down by a horrendous minus-15.4 in 2008, Hamilton has fluctuated between poor and barely passable in center. The advantage Hamilton thinks he would have by proving he can play center would be mitigated by the fact that there are much better defensive players on the market.
There's no doubt Hamilton is a special player, but his injury history makes signing him to a long-term deal a risky proposition. By moving to center field, Hamilton only increases the chances that he'll be injured again. Even though the Rangers may have nothing to lose since he could leave after the season, Hamilton may be costing himself millions by making the move.
Christopher Cwik is a writer for FanGraphs.
Boston Red Sox are in trouble already.
Spoiler [+]
The Boston Red Sox have played only two games, a rational person might say -- two of 162. A little perspective is needed, a rational person might say. There is no reason to overreact over a couple of road losses to a pretty good team, the Detroit Tigers.
But keep in mind that rationality and perspective began evaporating in Boston on Sept. 1, 2011. Since that day, the Red Sox have lost 22 of the 29 games they have played. Since that day, the whole place has gone nutty.
You want rational? Club ownership shoved out Terry Francona, a manager who had led the team to two championships in eight years. They embraced Theo Epstein's exit from the organization, rather than just saying no, which they always had the right to do.
You want rational? Somebody in the organization decided to smear Francona's name after he departed. Clubhouse sources leaked information about teammates eating chicken and beer during games, leaving some players to angrily speculate about the identity of the mole, and whether it's one of the other guys on the field.
Bobby Valentine was hired to manage a group of players fractured by last fall's events, and true to form, he has been outspoken and direct. But the splinters in the clubhouse festered long before the start of spring training.
You want rational? Well, forget it. If the Red Sox lose some more in the days ahead and a full-blown overreaction overruns the media coverage and fans, well, it's been earned.
The Red Sox don't look good. They have major questions about their bullpen and defense. They aren't singing "Kumbaya" together, and won't be until their internal issues are fully resolved. Compared to the clubhouse harmony that thrives with the St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals and other teams, the Red Sox's clubhouse feels like a place of solitary confinement.
But here's the thing: The Red Sox have to solve it themselves.
Yes, Andrew Bailey might be back for the final weeks of the season, and Carl Crawford could be back by the end of the month. But they aren't trading for Joel Hanrahan anytime soon; Mahatma Gandhi isn't walking through the door to promote internal peace.
There is a building tide of discontent swirling in Boston over this team, and it will crash on them quickly unless there is rapid change. Valentine really doesn't have the power to make that happen. Only the Red Sox players can.
Josh Beckett's start Saturday looked a lot like last September, writes Dan Shaughnessy. Kevin Youkilis is really struggling.
Beckett's effort was not fine for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
It was a big day for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, writes Tom Gage. Doug Fister is headed to the disabled list, which means somebody will have to step into the Detroit rotation. Considering Duane Below's strong relief effort Saturday, and the fact that he was competing for the rotation in spring training, you have to wonder whether he'll get the call.
From ESPN Stats and Info: Beckett had allowed six total earned runs in his previous five starts against the Tigers.
Beckett also allowed five home runs Saturday, tied for most allowed in a single game in his career (Aug. 23, 2009 vs. Yankees).
Last season, Beckett did not give up his fifth home run until June 28.
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
Beckett is the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1900) to allow at least five home runs in a game within his team's first two games of the season.
• Yoenis Cespedes has hit homers in his past three games. Within Steve Kroner's piece, Oakland manager Bob Melvin echoes something that GM Billy Beane said last week: Cespedes does a great job of leaving bad at-bats behind him:
• Standing on the field before the Royals' opener the other day, pitching coach Dave Eiland said he thought Luke Hochevar is in for a really good year, because he had made some adjustments, putting his arm in position to drive the ball on a downward plane. Eiland is certainly right, so far: Hochevar shut down the Angels.
• If Zack Greinke is going to rebuild his market value so that he might have a chance to get the kind of whopper deal that Matt Cain landed, two things have to happen:
1. He's got to pitch well, which he did Saturday, in shutting down the Cardinals. The general perception of him among evaluators last season was that he had a very mediocre first season with the Brewers, and he didn't pitch to his ability.
2. He's got to alter the perception that he can be a troublesome clubhouse presence, a reputation he earned in his years with the Royals. A lot of teammates there thought he was not invested in the rest of them. There are already some teams who won't consider Greinke because of the uneven nature of his exit from Kansas City.
Look, a lot of players -- a lot of people -- change as they get older. If there is perceived change in Greinke, it'll help his new agent, Casey Close, a whole lot.
Greinke made his first start count, writes Michael Hunt.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Greinke won:
A. Sixty-one of his 91 pitches (67.0 percent) were down in the zone or below it, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2009.
B. Twelve of the 17 balls in play (70.6 percent) against Greinke were hit on the ground, Greinke's highest percentage since Sept. 8, 2010.
C. Greinke went to just one 2-0 count and no 3-0 counts, and did not have a plate appearance last longer than six pitches.
D. Cardinals hitters were 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a breaking ball from Greinke.
• A pitch in the dirt was pivotal for the Blue Jays on Saturday, writes Bob Elliott. The Jays are a well-managed, well-coached team, but beyond that, they seem to have a very high degree of focus. They are invested.
How Brandon Morrow flirted with a no-hitter, from ESPN Stats and Info:
A. The Indians started eight lefties, and 68.5 percent of the pitches they saw from Morrow were on the outer third of the plate or further outside. Last season, just less than half of the pitches Morrow threw to lefties were outside.
B. Ten of the 18 balls in play (55.6 percent) against Morrow were hit on the ground, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2011.
C. Morrow got 29 called strikes, his highest total since the start of 2009.
• Lucas Harrell outdueled a 49-year-old.
• Kendrys Morales looks great.
From ESPN Stats and Info: By The Numbers
5: Players with multi-homer games, matching the most multi-homer games from any day last season; there were four days last year with five such games.
7: No-hit bids that Ubaldo Jimenez and Brandon Morrow have taken past the fourth inning since 2010 (most in MLB).
10: Runs the Tigers scored in their 10-0 win over the Red Sox. It's the most runs they're scored in a shutout win versus the Red Sox since a 13-0 win in 1948 (tied for third-largest shutout win all time vs. the Red Sox).
512: Home runs Jamie Moyer has allowed in his career (most all time).
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are making progress in their respective rehab stints.
2. Top draft pick Anthony Rendon was hurt, Adam Kilgore writes.
3. Clayton Kershaw is feeling better.
4. Carlos Quentin is getting closer to coming back.
5. A Twins pitcher was scratched from his start because of food poisoning, Brian Murphy writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The mystery is over: Hector Santiago is the White Sox's closer.
2. Mike Matheny plans to make some lineup changes.
3. Ned Yost is matching up his catchers, Bob Dutton writes.
4. As expected, Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped his appeal.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Brett Lawrie was The Man for the Blue Jays.
2. Chad Tracy is already a Nationals legend in 2012.
3. The Phillies fell on a close play. The lack of offense has been a problem for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.
4. Hiroki Kuroda had a bad day.
5. Joe Nathan played a cat-and-mouse game, and lost.
6. The Braves are off to their first 0-2 start in four years, David O'Brien writes.
7. Dee Gordon stole three bases and helped the Dodgers win in extras.
8. Dan Haren was shaky.
9. The Giants dug an early hole for themselves again.
10. The Padres put together a crazy rally, but still lost.
11. The Mariners overcame a rough start by Felix Hernandez.
12. The Twins played badly, again, Joe Christensen writes. These Twins look a lot like the 99-loss team of a year ago, writes Jim Souhan.
13. Luke Scott provided some punch at the plate. Joe Maddon acted on a hunch.
14. The Marlins broke out.
15. The Reds lost in Mat Latos' debut.
16. The White Sox won Paul Konerko's 2,000th game.
17. The Cubs had another bullpen blowup. Matt Garza took some blame.
18. Ubaldo Jimenez threw well, but the Indians squandered the effort. There is reason for optimism after his start, writes Bill Livingston.
19. Jamie Moyer had a bad day.
20. Lucas Duda mashed two HRs, Andy Martino writes.
21. The Orioles are perfect so far.
But keep in mind that rationality and perspective began evaporating in Boston on Sept. 1, 2011. Since that day, the Red Sox have lost 22 of the 29 games they have played. Since that day, the whole place has gone nutty.
You want rational? Club ownership shoved out Terry Francona, a manager who had led the team to two championships in eight years. They embraced Theo Epstein's exit from the organization, rather than just saying no, which they always had the right to do.
You want rational? Somebody in the organization decided to smear Francona's name after he departed. Clubhouse sources leaked information about teammates eating chicken and beer during games, leaving some players to angrily speculate about the identity of the mole, and whether it's one of the other guys on the field.
Bobby Valentine was hired to manage a group of players fractured by last fall's events, and true to form, he has been outspoken and direct. But the splinters in the clubhouse festered long before the start of spring training.
You want rational? Well, forget it. If the Red Sox lose some more in the days ahead and a full-blown overreaction overruns the media coverage and fans, well, it's been earned.
The Red Sox don't look good. They have major questions about their bullpen and defense. They aren't singing "Kumbaya" together, and won't be until their internal issues are fully resolved. Compared to the clubhouse harmony that thrives with the St. Louis Cardinals, Kansas City Royals and other teams, the Red Sox's clubhouse feels like a place of solitary confinement.
But here's the thing: The Red Sox have to solve it themselves.
Yes, Andrew Bailey might be back for the final weeks of the season, and Carl Crawford could be back by the end of the month. But they aren't trading for Joel Hanrahan anytime soon; Mahatma Gandhi isn't walking through the door to promote internal peace.
There is a building tide of discontent swirling in Boston over this team, and it will crash on them quickly unless there is rapid change. Valentine really doesn't have the power to make that happen. Only the Red Sox players can.
Josh Beckett's start Saturday looked a lot like last September, writes Dan Shaughnessy. Kevin Youkilis is really struggling.
Beckett's effort was not fine for the Red Sox, writes Steve Buckley.
It was a big day for Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder, writes Tom Gage. Doug Fister is headed to the disabled list, which means somebody will have to step into the Detroit rotation. Considering Duane Below's strong relief effort Saturday, and the fact that he was competing for the rotation in spring training, you have to wonder whether he'll get the call.
From ESPN Stats and Info: Beckett had allowed six total earned runs in his previous five starts against the Tigers.
Beckett also allowed five home runs Saturday, tied for most allowed in a single game in his career (Aug. 23, 2009 vs. Yankees).
Last season, Beckett did not give up his fifth home run until June 28.
From the Elias Sports Bureau:
Beckett is the first pitcher in the modern era (since 1900) to allow at least five home runs in a game within his team's first two games of the season.
• Yoenis Cespedes has hit homers in his past three games. Within Steve Kroner's piece, Oakland manager Bob Melvin echoes something that GM Billy Beane said last week: Cespedes does a great job of leaving bad at-bats behind him:
- Cespedes didn't put the ball in play against [Felix] Hernandez, striking out twice and getting hit by a pitch. A's manager Bob Melvin appreciated Cespedes' ability to deliver after he had struggled early in the game.
Said Melvin: "What you'd like to see from anybody is, you have a couple of bad at-bats but you're still able to come through later in the game and not let that get you down.
"He certainly looks to be that type of player."
• Standing on the field before the Royals' opener the other day, pitching coach Dave Eiland said he thought Luke Hochevar is in for a really good year, because he had made some adjustments, putting his arm in position to drive the ball on a downward plane. Eiland is certainly right, so far: Hochevar shut down the Angels.
• If Zack Greinke is going to rebuild his market value so that he might have a chance to get the kind of whopper deal that Matt Cain landed, two things have to happen:
1. He's got to pitch well, which he did Saturday, in shutting down the Cardinals. The general perception of him among evaluators last season was that he had a very mediocre first season with the Brewers, and he didn't pitch to his ability.
2. He's got to alter the perception that he can be a troublesome clubhouse presence, a reputation he earned in his years with the Royals. A lot of teammates there thought he was not invested in the rest of them. There are already some teams who won't consider Greinke because of the uneven nature of his exit from Kansas City.
Look, a lot of players -- a lot of people -- change as they get older. If there is perceived change in Greinke, it'll help his new agent, Casey Close, a whole lot.
Greinke made his first start count, writes Michael Hunt.
From ESPN Stats and Info, how Greinke won:
A. Sixty-one of his 91 pitches (67.0 percent) were down in the zone or below it, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2009.
B. Twelve of the 17 balls in play (70.6 percent) against Greinke were hit on the ground, Greinke's highest percentage since Sept. 8, 2010.
C. Greinke went to just one 2-0 count and no 3-0 counts, and did not have a plate appearance last longer than six pitches.
D. Cardinals hitters were 0-for-7 with four strikeouts in at-bats ending with a breaking ball from Greinke.
• A pitch in the dirt was pivotal for the Blue Jays on Saturday, writes Bob Elliott. The Jays are a well-managed, well-coached team, but beyond that, they seem to have a very high degree of focus. They are invested.
How Brandon Morrow flirted with a no-hitter, from ESPN Stats and Info:
A. The Indians started eight lefties, and 68.5 percent of the pitches they saw from Morrow were on the outer third of the plate or further outside. Last season, just less than half of the pitches Morrow threw to lefties were outside.
B. Ten of the 18 balls in play (55.6 percent) against Morrow were hit on the ground, his third-highest percentage since the start of 2011.
C. Morrow got 29 called strikes, his highest total since the start of 2009.
• Lucas Harrell outdueled a 49-year-old.
• Kendrys Morales looks great.
From ESPN Stats and Info: By The Numbers
5: Players with multi-homer games, matching the most multi-homer games from any day last season; there were four days last year with five such games.
7: No-hit bids that Ubaldo Jimenez and Brandon Morrow have taken past the fourth inning since 2010 (most in MLB).
10: Runs the Tigers scored in their 10-0 win over the Red Sox. It's the most runs they're scored in a shutout win versus the Red Sox since a 13-0 win in 1948 (tied for third-largest shutout win all time vs. the Red Sox).
512: Home runs Jamie Moyer has allowed in his career (most all time).
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Mike Morse and Rick Ankiel are making progress in their respective rehab stints.
2. Top draft pick Anthony Rendon was hurt, Adam Kilgore writes.
3. Clayton Kershaw is feeling better.
4. Carlos Quentin is getting closer to coming back.
5. A Twins pitcher was scratched from his start because of food poisoning, Brian Murphy writes.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The mystery is over: Hector Santiago is the White Sox's closer.
2. Mike Matheny plans to make some lineup changes.
3. Ned Yost is matching up his catchers, Bob Dutton writes.
4. As expected, Ubaldo Jimenez has dropped his appeal.
[h3]Saturday's games[/h3]
1. Brett Lawrie was The Man for the Blue Jays.
2. Chad Tracy is already a Nationals legend in 2012.
3. The Phillies fell on a close play. The lack of offense has been a problem for the Phillies, writes Bob Brookover.
4. Hiroki Kuroda had a bad day.
5. Joe Nathan played a cat-and-mouse game, and lost.
6. The Braves are off to their first 0-2 start in four years, David O'Brien writes.
7. Dee Gordon stole three bases and helped the Dodgers win in extras.
8. Dan Haren was shaky.
9. The Giants dug an early hole for themselves again.
10. The Padres put together a crazy rally, but still lost.
11. The Mariners overcame a rough start by Felix Hernandez.
12. The Twins played badly, again, Joe Christensen writes. These Twins look a lot like the 99-loss team of a year ago, writes Jim Souhan.
13. Luke Scott provided some punch at the plate. Joe Maddon acted on a hunch.
14. The Marlins broke out.
15. The Reds lost in Mat Latos' debut.
16. The White Sox won Paul Konerko's 2,000th game.
17. The Cubs had another bullpen blowup. Matt Garza took some blame.
18. Ubaldo Jimenez threw well, but the Indians squandered the effort. There is reason for optimism after his start, writes Bill Livingston.
19. Jamie Moyer had a bad day.
20. Lucas Duda mashed two HRs, Andy Martino writes.
21. The Orioles are perfect so far.
Angels looking like MLB's best team.
Spoiler [+]
ANAHEIM, Calif. -- A scout lounged in a seat in the home plate horseshoe here before the Angels played Friday, and joined the growing chorus of folks who believe Albert Pujols' team -- the team of Jered Weaver and Dan Haren and C.J. Wilson and Ervin Santana -- is the best in baseball.
"Because they have everything," he said. "Starting pitching. Power. Speed. The best outfield defense. Eventually, they'll get [prospect Mike] Trout up here, and they'll get better. There's room to grow."
A few hours later, Pujols wore a huge smile after his first win with the Angels, sharing handshakes and high-fives with new teammates; there should be a lot of success here this summer.
Whether Mark Trumbo can make a successful shift to third base remains an open question; he made two errors Friday, seemingly squeezing the ball a little too tightly and throwing the ball away for the first error, and then overrunning a foul popup for the second. Meanwhile, Jordan Walden continues to try to establish himself as a viable closer. The key, the Angels believe, is for him to throw strikes with his breaking ball; when that happens, he is dominant.
The Angels will have to settle the Bobby Abreu situation soon, and presumably, that will be when they see that Kendrys Morales can be counted on. For now, Abreu is a left-handed hitting safety net, and while he has been outspoken in his desire to play more, his dissatisfaction won't become a cancer; he's viewed by others as a positive, supportive teammate.
The Angels' players seem to possess the same confidence that oozes off the St. Louis Cardinals this spring: They know they're talented and they are throwing themselves into their work to ensure their success. Torii Hunter had met Pujols before this year, of course, but Hunter said that what surprises him the most, in being around the slugger daily, is how hard Pujols works.
In this group of Angels, he fits right in. The scout may be right.
Angels fans arrived early to see Pujols take batting practice, and they plan to stay late, writes Bill Plaschke. It took awhile for the Angels to get it going, but they figured it out, writes Bill Plunkett. Pujols' favorite thing from the game: "The win."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Greg Holland allowed just two of 33 inherited runners to score in 2011. And on Friday night, he allowed three inherited runners to score in a decisive eighth inning. The season has started, and there are no silver linings now, writes Sam Mellinger.
• MLB officials keep waiting to see the fine print on the Dodgers' sale, and privately, some team executives worry that the specifics will be an issue.
Some paperwork on the sale of the Dodgers was filed on Friday, as Bill Shaikin writes, and it showed that Frank McCourt is going to make a whole lot of money -- but there were few details about the financing of the deal. Readers of the L.A. Times were not happy that Magic Johnson was hanging out with Frank McCourt. The change in leadership could come by the end of the month, writes Richard Sandomir.
• The Royals are as loose and self-deprecating a bunch as you will find in the majors. Soft-tossing lefty Bruce Chen wears a T-shirt that has a Royals crown on the front, with the word "DominaChen." On the back, it reads, "83 By You." As in, 83 mph.
• This bit of interesting news was obscured by Opening Day stuff: Rays owner Stuart Sternberg says stadium talks are progressing, as Ira Kaufman writes.
• A tension remains in the Red Sox clubhouse, and while much has been made of Bobby Valentine's arrival this spring, I think a lot of the problems stem back to last season's collapse and unresolved issues between some teammates. The division is too difficult for the Red Sox to succeed unless they're all pulling in the same direction. Boston's problems need immediate fixing, because the team's first 15 games are against the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. A bad start -- following last September's collapse -- will set off an angry-fan frenzy.
Josh Beckett's season begins today.
• Some rival hitters -- who shall go unnamed -- texted each other after Justin Masterson's first start and agreed completely on this point: Masterson has climbed into a higher echelon of pitchers. "He's figured it out," said one of them. "Just nasty."
• The Marlins remain confident that they'll bust out. Miami had seven hits and nine total bases in the first two games, but even if the Marlins aren't a dynamic offensive team -- and their home park won't help -- they really won't be at a major disadvantage in their own division. Last year, NL East teams ranked 12th, 13th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th among 30 teams in runs scored, with the injury-plagued Mets leading the division. Since the Phillies' Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are out with injuries, and in light of the various issues with other teams, it looks to be a division of strong pitching and run-starved offenses.
• I was lucky enough to see six teams in three days, and of all the stuff we saw, what jumped out the most was how good the Cardinals look. They killed the Brewers on Friday, as Derrick Goold writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Jose Contreras had a shaky rehab outing, writes Bob Brookover.
2. A.J. Burnett seems to be making a lot of progress in his rehab.
3. Clayton Kershaw figures he'll be good to go on Tuesday, after a flu crushed him on Opening Day.
4. Scott Baker is going to get a second opinion on his elbow, writes Joe Christensen.
5. Chipper Jones had a positive step in his rehab.
6. Andrew Bailey jinxed himself.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Pirates will keep their approach on Opening Day.
2. Even Pete Rose is talking about the Joey Votto contract.
3. The Mariners ranked 18th in payroll.
4. The Rockies view Dexter Fowler as a work in progress, and if he doesn't hit, they won't be afraid to turn to Tyler Colvin, Troy Renck writes within this piece.
5. Pablo Sandoval is the Giants' emergency catcher.
6. Clues from the first day of the season point to Hector Santiago being the White Sox closer.
From ESPN Stats & Information, by the numbers:
4 -- Ryan Braun is the fourth reigning NL MVP in the past 25 seasons to go hitless on Opening Day .
8 -- Career Opening Day home runs for Adam Dunn (tied with Frank Robinson and Ken Griffey Jr. for most all time).
13 -- Todd Helton has hit safely in 13 straight Opening Day games, the longest current streak.
27 -- Mariano Rivera's consecutive saves versus Rays before Friday.
78 -- Runs scored Friday (8.7 runs per game). In the previous 10 games this season, 47 runs were scored (4.7 runs per game)
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. The Rangers got a jump-start from Ian Kinsler and Colby Lewis. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lewis beat the White Sox:
A. Threw 32 sliders, getting six of his nine strikeouts with that pitch.
B. Went out of the strike zone with 19 two-strike pitches; the White Sox went 1-for-9 with eight strikeouts in at-bats ending with two strikes out of the strike zone.
C. Kept the White Sox on base when they got to scoring position. Chicago went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in at-bats with runners in scoring position.
2. The Rays got big hits from Carlos Pena and got good work from their bullpen.
From Elias: Friday marked the first time the Yankees lost an Opening Day game in which they blew a ninth-inning lead since 1934, when they blew a 5-4 lead and lost to the Philadelphia Athletics 6-5.
The Yankees had their guts ripped out. The Rays created memories at the Yankees' expense, writes Joel Sherman.
3. The Mariners got their bats going, writes Geoff Baker.
4. The D-Backs figured out Tim Lincecum, again. Chris Young hit in the No. 2 spot, and it paid off, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Eric Young's speed helped the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
6. Chad Billingsley was The Man for the Dodgers.
7. Oakland lost, but Yoenis Cespedes clubbed a long home run, and is putting on a show, as John Shea writes.
Friday's longest home runs:
Yoenis Cespedes -- 462 feet (first in majors this season)
Adam Dunn -- 449 (2nd)
Carlos Pena -- 431 (6th)
George Kottaras -- 425 (7th)
Paul Goldschmidt -- 419 (8th)
8. Lincecum's season started with a crooked number, as Henry Schulman writes.
9. Cory Luebke had a tough day, as Bill Center writes. The good vibes of spring have dissipated, writes Dan Hayes.
10. The Brewers had a really bad first day.
11. There were problems for Carl Pavano in the first inning.
12. The White Sox racked up 13 strikeouts -- not the good kind.
13. The Astros kicked the ball around.
14. Jake Arrieta was The Man for the Orioles. Nick Markakis' opposite-field homer is a really good sign.
"Because they have everything," he said. "Starting pitching. Power. Speed. The best outfield defense. Eventually, they'll get [prospect Mike] Trout up here, and they'll get better. There's room to grow."
A few hours later, Pujols wore a huge smile after his first win with the Angels, sharing handshakes and high-fives with new teammates; there should be a lot of success here this summer.
Whether Mark Trumbo can make a successful shift to third base remains an open question; he made two errors Friday, seemingly squeezing the ball a little too tightly and throwing the ball away for the first error, and then overrunning a foul popup for the second. Meanwhile, Jordan Walden continues to try to establish himself as a viable closer. The key, the Angels believe, is for him to throw strikes with his breaking ball; when that happens, he is dominant.
The Angels will have to settle the Bobby Abreu situation soon, and presumably, that will be when they see that Kendrys Morales can be counted on. For now, Abreu is a left-handed hitting safety net, and while he has been outspoken in his desire to play more, his dissatisfaction won't become a cancer; he's viewed by others as a positive, supportive teammate.
The Angels' players seem to possess the same confidence that oozes off the St. Louis Cardinals this spring: They know they're talented and they are throwing themselves into their work to ensure their success. Torii Hunter had met Pujols before this year, of course, but Hunter said that what surprises him the most, in being around the slugger daily, is how hard Pujols works.
In this group of Angels, he fits right in. The scout may be right.
Angels fans arrived early to see Pujols take batting practice, and they plan to stay late, writes Bill Plaschke. It took awhile for the Angels to get it going, but they figured it out, writes Bill Plunkett. Pujols' favorite thing from the game: "The win."
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Greg Holland allowed just two of 33 inherited runners to score in 2011. And on Friday night, he allowed three inherited runners to score in a decisive eighth inning. The season has started, and there are no silver linings now, writes Sam Mellinger.
• MLB officials keep waiting to see the fine print on the Dodgers' sale, and privately, some team executives worry that the specifics will be an issue.
Some paperwork on the sale of the Dodgers was filed on Friday, as Bill Shaikin writes, and it showed that Frank McCourt is going to make a whole lot of money -- but there were few details about the financing of the deal. Readers of the L.A. Times were not happy that Magic Johnson was hanging out with Frank McCourt. The change in leadership could come by the end of the month, writes Richard Sandomir.
• The Royals are as loose and self-deprecating a bunch as you will find in the majors. Soft-tossing lefty Bruce Chen wears a T-shirt that has a Royals crown on the front, with the word "DominaChen." On the back, it reads, "83 By You." As in, 83 mph.
• This bit of interesting news was obscured by Opening Day stuff: Rays owner Stuart Sternberg says stadium talks are progressing, as Ira Kaufman writes.
• A tension remains in the Red Sox clubhouse, and while much has been made of Bobby Valentine's arrival this spring, I think a lot of the problems stem back to last season's collapse and unresolved issues between some teammates. The division is too difficult for the Red Sox to succeed unless they're all pulling in the same direction. Boston's problems need immediate fixing, because the team's first 15 games are against the Detroit Tigers, Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers and New York Yankees. A bad start -- following last September's collapse -- will set off an angry-fan frenzy.
Josh Beckett's season begins today.
• Some rival hitters -- who shall go unnamed -- texted each other after Justin Masterson's first start and agreed completely on this point: Masterson has climbed into a higher echelon of pitchers. "He's figured it out," said one of them. "Just nasty."
• The Marlins remain confident that they'll bust out. Miami had seven hits and nine total bases in the first two games, but even if the Marlins aren't a dynamic offensive team -- and their home park won't help -- they really won't be at a major disadvantage in their own division. Last year, NL East teams ranked 12th, 13th, 22nd, 23rd and 24th among 30 teams in runs scored, with the injury-plagued Mets leading the division. Since the Phillies' Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are out with injuries, and in light of the various issues with other teams, it looks to be a division of strong pitching and run-starved offenses.
• I was lucky enough to see six teams in three days, and of all the stuff we saw, what jumped out the most was how good the Cardinals look. They killed the Brewers on Friday, as Derrick Goold writes.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Jose Contreras had a shaky rehab outing, writes Bob Brookover.
2. A.J. Burnett seems to be making a lot of progress in his rehab.
3. Clayton Kershaw figures he'll be good to go on Tuesday, after a flu crushed him on Opening Day.
4. Scott Baker is going to get a second opinion on his elbow, writes Joe Christensen.
5. Chipper Jones had a positive step in his rehab.
6. Andrew Bailey jinxed himself.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Pirates will keep their approach on Opening Day.
2. Even Pete Rose is talking about the Joey Votto contract.
3. The Mariners ranked 18th in payroll.
4. The Rockies view Dexter Fowler as a work in progress, and if he doesn't hit, they won't be afraid to turn to Tyler Colvin, Troy Renck writes within this piece.
5. Pablo Sandoval is the Giants' emergency catcher.
6. Clues from the first day of the season point to Hector Santiago being the White Sox closer.
From ESPN Stats & Information, by the numbers:
4 -- Ryan Braun is the fourth reigning NL MVP in the past 25 seasons to go hitless on Opening Day .
8 -- Career Opening Day home runs for Adam Dunn (tied with Frank Robinson and Ken Griffey Jr. for most all time).
13 -- Todd Helton has hit safely in 13 straight Opening Day games, the longest current streak.
27 -- Mariano Rivera's consecutive saves versus Rays before Friday.
78 -- Runs scored Friday (8.7 runs per game). In the previous 10 games this season, 47 runs were scored (4.7 runs per game)
[h3]Friday's games[/h3]
1. The Rangers got a jump-start from Ian Kinsler and Colby Lewis. From ESPN Stats & Info, how Lewis beat the White Sox:
A. Threw 32 sliders, getting six of his nine strikeouts with that pitch.
B. Went out of the strike zone with 19 two-strike pitches; the White Sox went 1-for-9 with eight strikeouts in at-bats ending with two strikes out of the strike zone.
C. Kept the White Sox on base when they got to scoring position. Chicago went 0-for-6 with five strikeouts in at-bats with runners in scoring position.
2. The Rays got big hits from Carlos Pena and got good work from their bullpen.
From Elias: Friday marked the first time the Yankees lost an Opening Day game in which they blew a ninth-inning lead since 1934, when they blew a 5-4 lead and lost to the Philadelphia Athletics 6-5.
The Yankees had their guts ripped out. The Rays created memories at the Yankees' expense, writes Joel Sherman.
3. The Mariners got their bats going, writes Geoff Baker.
4. The D-Backs figured out Tim Lincecum, again. Chris Young hit in the No. 2 spot, and it paid off, writes Nick Piecoro.
5. Eric Young's speed helped the Rockies, writes Troy Renck.
6. Chad Billingsley was The Man for the Dodgers.
7. Oakland lost, but Yoenis Cespedes clubbed a long home run, and is putting on a show, as John Shea writes.
Friday's longest home runs:
Yoenis Cespedes -- 462 feet (first in majors this season)
Adam Dunn -- 449 (2nd)
Carlos Pena -- 431 (6th)
George Kottaras -- 425 (7th)
Paul Goldschmidt -- 419 (8th)
8. Lincecum's season started with a crooked number, as Henry Schulman writes.
9. Cory Luebke had a tough day, as Bill Center writes. The good vibes of spring have dissipated, writes Dan Hayes.
10. The Brewers had a really bad first day.
11. There were problems for Carl Pavano in the first inning.
12. The White Sox racked up 13 strikeouts -- not the good kind.
13. The Astros kicked the ball around.
14. Jake Arrieta was The Man for the Orioles. Nick Markakis' opposite-field homer is a really good sign.
For six contenders, D is the key.
Spoiler [+]
Before the 2011 season, the St. Louis Cardinals jettisoned all-glove shortstop Brendan Ryan and brought in Ryan Theriot. Theriot proved that he could neither hit nor play shortstop well, so the Cardinals were forced to make a trade deadline deal to bring in veteran Rafael Furcal. Still a solid defensive shortstop at 33, Furcal represented an upgrade for an infield which struggled behind heavy ground-ball pitchers Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook.
Of course, the Cardinals made one of the more remarkable turnarounds in September history to squeak into the playoffs en route to their second World Series title this century.
While Theriot's defensive struggles nearly cost the Cardinals a shot at October, Furcal played a large part in the late-season surge. Here are six teams whose defense, good or bad, could make the difference in their playoff chances.
[h3]Teams whose defense could cost them a playoff spot[/h3]
Detroit Tigers
While a lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder is intimidating, an infield featuring both hulking sluggers is far from it. In his last two seasons in Florida (2006 and '07), Cabrera played third base every day and cost the Marlins an estimated 29 runs (according to our runs saved metric) compared to an average third baseman. Around his 25th birthday, Cabrera played 14 games at third before the Tigers were forced to move him across the diamond to first base. Ever since, Cabrera has been a consistently below-average first baseman.
Four years later, an older and heavier Cabrera is going against all odds. If Cabrera can return to his 2008 form, he'd cost the Tigers 20 runs compared to an average third baseman over a full season -- equivalent to roughly two wins in the standings. More than likely, Cabrera will show some effects of age and rust at the hot corner, and his actual defensive performance could be much worse.
Furthermore, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is no defensive specialist himself and won't be able to cover for Cabrera's shortcomings. If the move isn't going well, manager Jim Leyland could move Cabrera to the DH role currently occupied by Delmon Young. However, Young would then be forced into left field, where he is a liability and a downgrade from Andy Dirks and Ryan Raburn in the field. Raburn would then play more regularly at second base, where he is a defensive liability compared to Ramon Santiago. The domino effect could be catastrophic.
Regardless of how much time Cabrera spends at third base, Fielder also represents a troublesome downgrade at first. Fielder's minus-26 defensive runs saved since 2009 ranks him ahead of only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard as the worst defensive first baseman. Depending on how the shuffling plays out, the addition of Fielder could result in a drop of 30 or 40 runs saved from last year's defense, meaning an additional 30-40 runs allowed by Tigers fielders.
While the Tigers' pitchers' will appreciate the extra run support, they won't be so happy when ground balls continually find holes -- especially sinkerballer Rick Porcello -- and their ERAs balloon as a result.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a splash this offseason with big free-agent signings, but the league's worst defensive team from 2011 still has a number of glaring weaknesses. Neither Jose Reyes nor Hanley Ramirez rate well defensively at shortstop, largely due to their relative inability to make the play on the ball in the hole. Hanley will benefit from the move to third, but even when healthy, the two players will allow more than their share of hits.
While Giancarlo Stanton has been an asset in right field, Logan Morrison rated as baseball's worst left fielder (minus-26 runs saved) last season, and Emilio Bonifacio is a question mark in center. With the deep power allies of the new ballpark, the Marlins' outfield unit will be challenged on many potential extra base hits in the gaps.
These combined weaknesses on the left side of the diamond could prevent the Marlins from making the leap into contention in 2012.
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are devastating to the Phillies' lineup, but their absence will also be felt on defense. Howard tops only Adam Dunn on the three-year defensive runs saved list at first base, but sticking Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome out there every day isn't going to be any better.
Additionally, the Phillies are going to miss Utley's athleticism and instincts in the field no matter who they stick at second base. Add these significant injuries to a defensive unit that is getting old fast, and you've got plenty of reason to worry in Philadelphia.
Once an elite shortstop, Jimmy Rollins is as sure-handed as ever, but he has lost a couple of steps going to his right. Shane Victorino has also dropped off from his Gold Glove days in center. While the pitching staff is good enough to carry the team until Utley and Howard return, any further setbacks could spell doom for the Phillies in a much more competitive NL East.
[h3]Teams whose defense could push them into October[/h3]
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have established themselves as baseball's best defensive team, and it's not even close. According to our updated defensive runs saved numbers in "The Fielding Bible: Volume III," Rays fielders were a combined 85 runs better than average, and more than 30 runs better than the second-best defense (the Diamondbacks). Without the budget to sign impact bats and arms on the free-agent market, the Rays have set the new standard for finding cheap value players, especially defensive-minded acquisitions.
Additionally, the Rays have a sophisticated positioning scheme, indicated by their motto "we catch line drives." More than any other team, the Rays have made a habit of employing a dramatic shift against heavy pull hitters, who are especially common in the AL East. In a division with the perennially contending Red Sox and Yankees and the rapidly improving Blue Jays, every little tactical edge can make a difference.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' defensive alignment has no weakness. The infield includes four above-average defenders: Scott Rolen, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The outfield includes average defenders Ryan Ludwick and Drew Stubbs as well as an inconsistent but more-good-than-bad Jay Bruce in right field. In a division where the Cardinals and Brewers lost two of the best hitters in baseball, the Reds should find themselves right back in the thick of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Heading into 2011, the Brewers' starting infield of Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee was projected to be the worst defensive unit in baseball. However, new manager Ron Roenicke embraced "the shift," and the four infielders improved a combined 56 defensive runs saved over their 2010 totals. The Brewers not only shifted against the Ryan Howards and Carlos Penas of the world, but also employed radical defensive alignments against right-handed hitters like Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
General manager Doug Melvin recently commented at the SABR Analytics Conference that the Brewers were encouraged by the results and might be even more aggressive with the shift in 2012. They'll need all the help they can get, replacing Fielder and McGehee with two more defensive liabilities in Mat Gamel and Aramis Ramirez.
Ben Jedlovec is a research analyst with Baseball Info Solutions and co-author of The Fielding Bible -- Volume III. You can follow him on Twitter @BenJedlovec.
Of course, the Cardinals made one of the more remarkable turnarounds in September history to squeak into the playoffs en route to their second World Series title this century.
While Theriot's defensive struggles nearly cost the Cardinals a shot at October, Furcal played a large part in the late-season surge. Here are six teams whose defense, good or bad, could make the difference in their playoff chances.
[h3]Teams whose defense could cost them a playoff spot[/h3]
Detroit Tigers
While a lineup with Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder is intimidating, an infield featuring both hulking sluggers is far from it. In his last two seasons in Florida (2006 and '07), Cabrera played third base every day and cost the Marlins an estimated 29 runs (according to our runs saved metric) compared to an average third baseman. Around his 25th birthday, Cabrera played 14 games at third before the Tigers were forced to move him across the diamond to first base. Ever since, Cabrera has been a consistently below-average first baseman.
Four years later, an older and heavier Cabrera is going against all odds. If Cabrera can return to his 2008 form, he'd cost the Tigers 20 runs compared to an average third baseman over a full season -- equivalent to roughly two wins in the standings. More than likely, Cabrera will show some effects of age and rust at the hot corner, and his actual defensive performance could be much worse.
Furthermore, shortstop Jhonny Peralta is no defensive specialist himself and won't be able to cover for Cabrera's shortcomings. If the move isn't going well, manager Jim Leyland could move Cabrera to the DH role currently occupied by Delmon Young. However, Young would then be forced into left field, where he is a liability and a downgrade from Andy Dirks and Ryan Raburn in the field. Raburn would then play more regularly at second base, where he is a defensive liability compared to Ramon Santiago. The domino effect could be catastrophic.
Regardless of how much time Cabrera spends at third base, Fielder also represents a troublesome downgrade at first. Fielder's minus-26 defensive runs saved since 2009 ranks him ahead of only Adam Dunn and Ryan Howard as the worst defensive first baseman. Depending on how the shuffling plays out, the addition of Fielder could result in a drop of 30 or 40 runs saved from last year's defense, meaning an additional 30-40 runs allowed by Tigers fielders.
While the Tigers' pitchers' will appreciate the extra run support, they won't be so happy when ground balls continually find holes -- especially sinkerballer Rick Porcello -- and their ERAs balloon as a result.
Miami Marlins
The Marlins made a splash this offseason with big free-agent signings, but the league's worst defensive team from 2011 still has a number of glaring weaknesses. Neither Jose Reyes nor Hanley Ramirez rate well defensively at shortstop, largely due to their relative inability to make the play on the ball in the hole. Hanley will benefit from the move to third, but even when healthy, the two players will allow more than their share of hits.
While Giancarlo Stanton has been an asset in right field, Logan Morrison rated as baseball's worst left fielder (minus-26 runs saved) last season, and Emilio Bonifacio is a question mark in center. With the deep power allies of the new ballpark, the Marlins' outfield unit will be challenged on many potential extra base hits in the gaps.
These combined weaknesses on the left side of the diamond could prevent the Marlins from making the leap into contention in 2012.
Philadelphia Phillies
Injuries to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard are devastating to the Phillies' lineup, but their absence will also be felt on defense. Howard tops only Adam Dunn on the three-year defensive runs saved list at first base, but sticking Ty Wigginton and Jim Thome out there every day isn't going to be any better.
Additionally, the Phillies are going to miss Utley's athleticism and instincts in the field no matter who they stick at second base. Add these significant injuries to a defensive unit that is getting old fast, and you've got plenty of reason to worry in Philadelphia.
Once an elite shortstop, Jimmy Rollins is as sure-handed as ever, but he has lost a couple of steps going to his right. Shane Victorino has also dropped off from his Gold Glove days in center. While the pitching staff is good enough to carry the team until Utley and Howard return, any further setbacks could spell doom for the Phillies in a much more competitive NL East.
[h3]Teams whose defense could push them into October[/h3]
Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays have established themselves as baseball's best defensive team, and it's not even close. According to our updated defensive runs saved numbers in "The Fielding Bible: Volume III," Rays fielders were a combined 85 runs better than average, and more than 30 runs better than the second-best defense (the Diamondbacks). Without the budget to sign impact bats and arms on the free-agent market, the Rays have set the new standard for finding cheap value players, especially defensive-minded acquisitions.
Additionally, the Rays have a sophisticated positioning scheme, indicated by their motto "we catch line drives." More than any other team, the Rays have made a habit of employing a dramatic shift against heavy pull hitters, who are especially common in the AL East. In a division with the perennially contending Red Sox and Yankees and the rapidly improving Blue Jays, every little tactical edge can make a difference.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds' defensive alignment has no weakness. The infield includes four above-average defenders: Scott Rolen, Zack Cozart, Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto. The outfield includes average defenders Ryan Ludwick and Drew Stubbs as well as an inconsistent but more-good-than-bad Jay Bruce in right field. In a division where the Cardinals and Brewers lost two of the best hitters in baseball, the Reds should find themselves right back in the thick of things.
Milwaukee Brewers
Heading into 2011, the Brewers' starting infield of Fielder, Rickie Weeks, Yuniesky Betancourt and Casey McGehee was projected to be the worst defensive unit in baseball. However, new manager Ron Roenicke embraced "the shift," and the four infielders improved a combined 56 defensive runs saved over their 2010 totals. The Brewers not only shifted against the Ryan Howards and Carlos Penas of the world, but also employed radical defensive alignments against right-handed hitters like Dan Uggla and Chris Young.
General manager Doug Melvin recently commented at the SABR Analytics Conference that the Brewers were encouraged by the results and might be even more aggressive with the shift in 2012. They'll need all the help they can get, replacing Fielder and McGehee with two more defensive liabilities in Mat Gamel and Aramis Ramirez.
Ben Jedlovec is a research analyst with Baseball Info Solutions and co-author of The Fielding Bible -- Volume III. You can follow him on Twitter @BenJedlovec.
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Don't like the move to suspend Ozzie
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Don't like the move to suspend Ozzie
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Should have put the team in broward or palm beach and kept it the Florida Marlins. These people protesting aren't even going to be the people going to the games. They've probably offended the actual fans that would be going to the games with this move to suspend ozzie.
Talbert
Talbert
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Should have put the team in broward or palm beach and kept it the Florida Marlins. These people protesting aren't even going to be the people going to the games. They've probably offended the actual fans that would be going to the games with this move to suspend ozzie.
Talbert
Talbert
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That's because you're an educated baseball fan. I can't stomach the NL Central thread because of the homerism that it encompasses. With the exception of Retro Baller, CP & WildKycat there is too much nonsense going on.
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That's because you're an educated baseball fan. I can't stomach the NL Central thread because of the homerism that it encompasses. With the exception of Retro Baller, CP & WildKycat there is too much nonsense going on.
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this dude ozzie, lol. at least he keeps it real
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this dude ozzie, lol. at least he keeps it real
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FB, you're my dude and all... but miss me with the "nobody picked us" bull $$+*.
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FB, you're my dude and all... but miss me with the "nobody picked us" bull $$+*.
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Get well soon Vin Scully. It's a shame you'll miss calling the home opener...Only the 2nd time in 60+ years...
Love the new O's hat with the white front (old school look). I guess the game against the Yanks last night was reality crashing back in...LOL.
Love the new O's hat with the white front (old school look). I guess the game against the Yanks last night was reality crashing back in...LOL.
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Get well soon Vin Scully. It's a shame you'll miss calling the home opener...Only the 2nd time in 60+ years...
Love the new O's hat with the white front (old school look). I guess the game against the Yanks last night was reality crashing back in...LOL.
Love the new O's hat with the white front (old school look). I guess the game against the Yanks last night was reality crashing back in...LOL.
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Forever grateful, Ned.
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Forever grateful, Ned.
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Dope commercialOriginally Posted by Osh Kosh Bosh
Toronto Blue Jays - We're Ready SHORT from PosterBoy Edit on Vimeo.
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