- 6,459
- 1,841
- Joined
- Dec 5, 2008
Since when did Carlos Pena hit leadoff for the Rays?
I love Joe Maddon's style of managing, so unorthodox.
2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by proshares,
- Start date
- Status
- 8,764
- 13
- Joined
- May 14, 2009
I still don't understand how he, Justin Morneau, & Sydney Crosby missed so much time & had so much trouble post concussion & NFL players can come back either the following week or only miss 1 week.
Um, guaranteed contracts help
- 4,112
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- Sep 19, 2006
Getting beaned in the head at 95 > a collision at 20, just my opinion. Now if your going helmet first into the turf its a bit different.
The thing about Justin, and a guy like Eric lindross is that they are both HOFer's or potential ones who's careers got derailed.
Pro they needed to draft in 2005 and didnt. It was wise to build around Ichiro imo, but only cause they were not attracting power hitters after the JR warning track debacle. They were not prudent in understanding that after that any power guy they got was either going to be "emaciated" ( see Beltre ) or built through the organization.
Are we still giving Adrian the business for that big contract season? Cause dude was worth the money he was paid just not by Seattle imo.
NFL guys have no qualms about playing with vertigo like symptoms you cant play any other sport but football w/o some level of consistent balance, in football you can get away with it.
The thing about Justin, and a guy like Eric lindross is that they are both HOFer's or potential ones who's careers got derailed.
Pro they needed to draft in 2005 and didnt. It was wise to build around Ichiro imo, but only cause they were not attracting power hitters after the JR warning track debacle. They were not prudent in understanding that after that any power guy they got was either going to be "emaciated" ( see Beltre ) or built through the organization.
Are we still giving Adrian the business for that big contract season? Cause dude was worth the money he was paid just not by Seattle imo.
NFL guys have no qualms about playing with vertigo like symptoms you cant play any other sport but football w/o some level of consistent balance, in football you can get away with it.
do work son
Banned
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- Joined
- May 22, 2010
bud norris dealing in the month of may. yeah i said bud norris. and the "lowly houston astros", only 4 games out of first in the division
do work son
Banned
- 17,118
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- Joined
- May 22, 2010
it's just my opinion, and i bet pro has a million sabremetric stats that i just dont understand to refute my opinion but.........i'm not sold on the dodgers. ted lilly got rocked tonight, but even before that i wondered how much longer he and capuano could pitch at the level they are. then billingsley and harang just seem too risky to me. offensively, where do runs come from outside of kemp and ethier?
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- Jan 3, 2011
I feel like that's probably the majority opinion about them.
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Got to give Ted Lilly credit for never once changing his facial expression throughout his 14 year career.
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Dee Gordon needs to step it up and get on base more if the Dodgers want to do anything. Abreu was a good pick up for them though.
Top 25 prospects update.
The reward waiting for Cole Hamels.
How Boras can exploit the draft.
Baltimore's unsustainable pace.
Rumors.
http://[h3]Theriot expected back Thursday[/h3]
7:59AM ET
[h5]Ryan Theriot | Giants [/h5]
The Giants are expected to active infielder Ryan Theriot from the disabled list in time for Thursday's game in Miami, according to an MLB.com report.
The Giants opened up a roster spot by optioning infielder Charlie Culberson to Triple-A Fresno. Theriot, who has been sidelined by a strained right elbow, could get some time at third base, where Joaquin Arias has been filling in for the injured Pablo Sandoval.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Ryan Theriot, San Francisco Giants
http://[h3]June 8 return for Morse?[/h3]
7:47AM ET
[h5]Michael Morse | Nationals [/h5]
With Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos sidelined, the Washington Nationals need left fielder Michael Morse back sooner rather than later. If all goes well, Morse could be back June 8 against the Red Sox, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
Morse, who is on the disabled list because of a torn shoulder muscle, is expected to play in extended spring games starting Friday in Viera, Fla and then begin a rehab assignment.
The Nats have used six different left fielders this season in the absence of Morse.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Michael Morse, Washington Nationals
http://[h3]Manny's return delayed?[/h3]
7:29AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Athletics [/h5]
Manny Ramirez is eligible to play his first game for the Oakland Athletics next Wednesday, but manager Bob Melvin says the date for his return from a 50-game drug suspension isn't "locked in."
The A's had envisioned Ramirez getting about 40 plate appearances in his 10-game minor league stint, but he already missed a game last weekend with a wrist issue.
The club will have to make a roster move to make room for Ramirez. MLB.com's Jane Lee says Daric Barton could be sent to Triple-A, considering he has options left, unlike Kila Ka'aihue.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Eric Karabell[/h5]
Should owners grab Manny?
Tags:
Oakland Athletics, Manny Ramirez, Yoenis Cespedes
http://[h3]More playing time for Aoki[/h3]
7:06AM ET
[h5]Norichika Aoki | Brewers [/h5]
A three-time batting champion in Japan's Central League, Norichika Aoki is seeing increased playing time for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers' outfield. With manager Ron Roenicke experimenting with http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5973/corey-hartCorey Hart at first base, Aoki might get even more starts in right field, says Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel.
Aoki started all three contests against the Giants, including twice in right field when Hart moved to first base with an opposing lefty on the mound. The lefty-swinging Aoki provides Roenicke with some flexibility since he hits .310 against southpaws and .289 against righthanders.
Aoki has started 10 games in May after being limited to mostly pinch-hitting duties in April.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Corey Hart, Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee Brewers
http://[h3]Could Dunn be trade bait?[/h3]
6:46AM ET
[h5]Adam Dunn | White Sox [/h5]
When the Chicago White Sox inked Adam Dunn to a 4-year contract prior to the 2011 season the club was clearly looking to win right away. Dunn, and the team, struggled last season, and entering 2012 it was difficult to determine whether the Sox were going all out to contend or in the middle of a bit of a rebuild. They're not out of it entering play Wednesday, but if the fade this summer, Dunn could potentially become the subject of trade rumors.
The slugger is back doing what he did for years in the National League, and that's drawing walks and hitting home runs. He's batting .243/.386/.579 for the year and if it weren't for his struggles against left-handed pitching (.174 average) those overall numbers would be even better.
The Sox sit four games back in the loss column in the sudenly mediocre American League Central, and while they are within shouting distance the club is more likely to add than subtract. If the summer wears on them and they find themselves well off the pace come July 31, Dunn could be an attractive piece for GM Kenny Williams to move to contender and add young talent.
Dunn is due $44 million total for 2012-214, and is limited to first base or DH, but there are clubs that have needs in those areas and may not mind paying Dunn to fill that role. The Los Angeles Dodgers come to mind, as do the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers. The Jays may balk at the salary, however, which is why the Cleveland Indians aren't likely to get involved in such talks.
Even the New York Yankees could show interest in Dunn, especially with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez struggling to produce in the heart of their lineup. The Milwaukee Brewers have a need at first base, but they may be in the same boat as the Indians concerning Dunn's contract. The Tigers may get Victor Martinez back late this year, which would eliminate them, and they may prefer to spend their assets to improve their pitching staff.
The Sox could choose to hang onto Dunn, too, and try and compete over the next few years, so a deal is far from probable.
- Jason A. Churchill
Spoiler [+]
It's early for any kind of major update to the offseason top 100 prospects ranking, but with all the promotions we've had so far -- not to mention a few unfortunate injuries -- the top 25 names have changed quite a bit since February. I've made a few adjustments to the order, based more on early scouting reports than performances to date, since we're still in small-sample territory.
Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for the list, which removed four of the preseason top 10 as well as two other likely candidates for the new top 25. I've removed three pitchers, Manny Banuelos, Casey Kelly and Carlos Martinez, who are currently on the disabled list with arm injuries, as well as Arodys Vizcaino (out for the year after Tommy John) and Anthony Rendon (also on the shelf with yet another ankle injury). Joe Ross might have appeared on the honorable mention list, but is also on the shelf.
1. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Frederick)
Preseason ranking: 11
The Orioles' bizarre, ultraconservative handling of Bundy aside, he didn't just dominate inferior competition in low Class A, he did it with the stuff and polish that could, in another organization, have had him in the big leagues this year or at the start of 2013. (The club finally promoted him to Frederick on Wednesday after he threw 30 scoreless innings for Delmarva to open the year, with 40 strikeouts and just five hits allowed.)
I don't think it's a stretch to say that a redraft of 2011's tremendous class would have Bundy on top, which would have made him the first prep right-hander to go first overall.
2. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Frisco)
Preseason ranking: 7
It's hard to rank a guy much lower than this when he has front-line tools and has failed to reach base in just two games this year, the last one on April 7. His combination of OBP, speed and defense will push Elvis Andrus out of the way -- talk of moving Profar to accommodate Andrus underestimates just how good Profar is going to be.
3. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Bowie)
Preseason ranking: 4
He still has more offensive upside than Profar given his power potential, but it's not a lock that Machado stays at short (I like his chances to do so), whereas Profar is a no-doubt shortstop. And Machado has been gradually heating up as the season has gone on, if we slice the small sample into tiny ones.
4. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays (age 23)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 6
Yes, it's Las Vegas, which is a notorious hitters' park, but he's on a tear right now, hitting .341 with five homers in his last 10 games. The combination of plus defense, power and enough OBP makes him a potential All-Star.
5. Wil Myers, RF/CF/3B, Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Omaha)
Preseason ranking: 13
I doubt Myers ends up at third base for the Royals, but there's nothing wrong with maintaining his flexibility and possible trade value. He'll hit enough to be an impact guy at any position.
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 24
Still just 19 and holding his own in Double-A (2.06 ERA), although he's not quite as polished as Bundy or Miller. Seattle did the right thing in jumping him past hitter-friendly High Desert in the high Class A California League.
7. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 10
Working primarily off his fastball, Cole is handling high-A hitters without too much trouble, but we won't learn much about how close he is to the majors until he's properly challenged in Double-A.
8. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Reno)
Preseason ranking: 21
#FreeTrevorBauer.
9. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 5
One comment I've heard on Miller this season is that he might just be bored; he's been solid (outside of a bad outing Monday night in Tucson, another great hitters' park), but not spectacular, and his fastball is down about a full grade, sitting 90-93 mph.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 15
He's gradually stretching out, flashing the plus breaking ball but not showing it consistently yet; he's got the size and velocity to be a top-10 starter in the majors but looks like he's a good three to four years away from approaching his peak.
11. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Beloit)
Preseason ranking: 28
He's cooled off since the scorching early start, and striking out a lot more than you'd like, but he has enormous raw power (.551 slugging this year) and enough ability to hit to see him as a middle-of-the-order bat down the road with a .260-.280 average but 30-40 jacks.
12. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (South Bend)
Preseason ranking: 19
Doing everything you'd expect of him given his age and experience, but not on the fast track of Bundy, his former Oklahoma prep rival.
13. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Mobile)
Preseason ranking: 25
Skaggs is closer to the majors than Bradley but has a touch less upside; you can't go wrong choosing either arm. I would have to think Skaggs is next in line for a call after Bauer, and his command and control are actually ahead of Bauer's right now.
14. Bubba Starling, CF, Kansas City Royals (age 19)
Current level: Extended spring training
Preseason ranking: 15
He was the hardest guy to rank on the list, as he still has huge tools but hasn't played yet this spring. It wasn't necessarily a bad decision by the Royals to take him fifth overall last June, but since he's nearly 20 I'd like to see him in games sometime soon.
15. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Jupiter)
Preseason ranking: 48
The power so far this year has been a surprise (.551 slugging), but he can really hit -- as in, one of the best pure hit tools in the minors right now. Playing center now but virtually no chance to play there in the majors because of his poor arm.
16. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Binghamton)
Preseason ranking: 27
The only thing between him and potential No. 1-starterdom is just throwing more strikes. The raw stuff is there.
17. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (age 1
Current level: Low Class A (Kane County)
Preseason ranking: 35
He's rising fast and could be top 10 by the end of the year. Very advanced for his age, more than holding his own in low-A even though he's 15 months younger than Starling.
18. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers (20)
Current level: High Class A (Lakeland)
Preseason ranking: 37
He's destroying the Florida State League (.411 BA) and getting better as the season goes along; the defense is adequate, slightly awkward at times but good enough that he should stay there long-term. No power yet, but that will come with age and once he gets out of the power-dampening FSL.
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)
Preseason ranking: 18
His breaking ball still isn't where it needs to be, and he needs it to improve so hitters can't just try to time the hard but flat fastball -- but he is just 21 in Triple-A with good control, and the velocity is about as easy as it gets.
20. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Iowa)
Preseason ranking: 36
Rizzo is shorter to the ball now and even hitting lefties (.327 BA/.377 OBP/.592 SLG in just 53 PA with 12 strikeouts), as well as providing plus defense at first.
21. Oscar Taveras, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 53
His swing is unorthodox -- you might even call it ugly -- but it works, well enough to see the bat profiling in an outfield corner, with an average high enough that the OBP is strong even if he draws only 40-50 walks a year.
22. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 30
Hultzen is nothing spectacular, but he's very close to major league ready, with a changeup as his best shot for an out pitch and above-average command of all of his pitches.
23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Tulsa)
Preseason ranking: 26
Now that the preseason hysteria that had some folks calling for Arenado to get the starting third-base job in Denver has died down, he looks more like the prospect he always was: a high-contact hitter who should hit 20-25 homers at sea level with adequate defense at third.
24. Mason Williams, CF, New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Charleston)
Preseason ranking: 34
He's not walking, but he's also making a ton of contact, and he's barely begun to fill out physically. There's a lot of projection involved in this ranking but he's a favorite of many scouts (and of me) because of the substantial upside here.
25. Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bakersfield)
Preseason ranking: 64
There's a lot of skepticism out there about where Hamilton's ultimate ceiling lies; he's an 80 runner on the 20-80 scale with 42 steals already this season, and can use his speed to create extra opportunities to reach base, but he lacks power and there's a fair chance he moves either to second or center field. He's an absurd prospect for fantasy players but doesn't look like the kind of player who'll generate four or five wins a year at his peak unless he becomes a plus defender (perhaps in center) and shows he can get strong enough to consistently drive major league pitching.
Here are a handful of prospects to watch for before my midseason update: Jackie Bradley, Jr., CF, Red Sox; Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox; Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros; Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers; Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks.
Any player currently in the majors is ineligible for the list, which removed four of the preseason top 10 as well as two other likely candidates for the new top 25. I've removed three pitchers, Manny Banuelos, Casey Kelly and Carlos Martinez, who are currently on the disabled list with arm injuries, as well as Arodys Vizcaino (out for the year after Tommy John) and Anthony Rendon (also on the shelf with yet another ankle injury). Joe Ross might have appeared on the honorable mention list, but is also on the shelf.
1. Dylan Bundy, RHP, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: High Class A (Frederick)
Preseason ranking: 11
The Orioles' bizarre, ultraconservative handling of Bundy aside, he didn't just dominate inferior competition in low Class A, he did it with the stuff and polish that could, in another organization, have had him in the big leagues this year or at the start of 2013. (The club finally promoted him to Frederick on Wednesday after he threw 30 scoreless innings for Delmarva to open the year, with 40 strikeouts and just five hits allowed.)
I don't think it's a stretch to say that a redraft of 2011's tremendous class would have Bundy on top, which would have made him the first prep right-hander to go first overall.
2. Jurickson Profar, SS, Texas Rangers (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Frisco)
Preseason ranking: 7
It's hard to rank a guy much lower than this when he has front-line tools and has failed to reach base in just two games this year, the last one on April 7. His combination of OBP, speed and defense will push Elvis Andrus out of the way -- talk of moving Profar to accommodate Andrus underestimates just how good Profar is going to be.
3. Manny Machado, SS, Baltimore Orioles (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Bowie)
Preseason ranking: 4
He still has more offensive upside than Profar given his power potential, but it's not a lock that Machado stays at short (I like his chances to do so), whereas Profar is a no-doubt shortstop. And Machado has been gradually heating up as the season has gone on, if we slice the small sample into tiny ones.
4. Travis d'Arnaud, C, Toronto Blue Jays (age 23)
Current level: Triple-A (Las Vegas)
Preseason ranking: 6
Yes, it's Las Vegas, which is a notorious hitters' park, but he's on a tear right now, hitting .341 with five homers in his last 10 games. The combination of plus defense, power and enough OBP makes him a potential All-Star.
5. Wil Myers, RF/CF/3B, Kansas City Royals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Omaha)
Preseason ranking: 13
I doubt Myers ends up at third base for the Royals, but there's nothing wrong with maintaining his flexibility and possible trade value. He'll hit enough to be an impact guy at any position.
6. Taijuan Walker, RHP, Seattle Mariners (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 24
Still just 19 and holding his own in Double-A (2.06 ERA), although he's not quite as polished as Bundy or Miller. Seattle did the right thing in jumping him past hitter-friendly High Desert in the high Class A California League.
7. Gerrit Cole, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 10
Working primarily off his fastball, Cole is handling high-A hitters without too much trouble, but we won't learn much about how close he is to the majors until he's properly challenged in Double-A.
8. Trevor Bauer, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Reno)
Preseason ranking: 21
#FreeTrevorBauer.
9. Shelby Miller, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Memphis)
Preseason ranking: 5
One comment I've heard on Miller this season is that he might just be bored; he's been solid (outside of a bad outing Monday night in Tucson, another great hitters' park), but not spectacular, and his fastball is down about a full grade, sitting 90-93 mph.
10. Jameson Taillon, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Bradenton)
Preseason ranking: 15
He's gradually stretching out, flashing the plus breaking ball but not showing it consistently yet; he's got the size and velocity to be a top-10 starter in the majors but looks like he's a good three to four years away from approaching his peak.
11. Miguel Sano, 3B, Minnesota Twins (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (Beloit)
Preseason ranking: 28
He's cooled off since the scorching early start, and striking out a lot more than you'd like, but he has enormous raw power (.551 slugging this year) and enough ability to hit to see him as a middle-of-the-order bat down the road with a .260-.280 average but 30-40 jacks.
12. Archie Bradley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 19)
Current level: Low Class A (South Bend)
Preseason ranking: 19
Doing everything you'd expect of him given his age and experience, but not on the fast track of Bundy, his former Oklahoma prep rival.
13. Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (age 20)
Current level: Double-A (Mobile)
Preseason ranking: 25
Skaggs is closer to the majors than Bradley but has a touch less upside; you can't go wrong choosing either arm. I would have to think Skaggs is next in line for a call after Bauer, and his command and control are actually ahead of Bauer's right now.
14. Bubba Starling, CF, Kansas City Royals (age 19)
Current level: Extended spring training
Preseason ranking: 15
He was the hardest guy to rank on the list, as he still has huge tools but hasn't played yet this spring. It wasn't necessarily a bad decision by the Royals to take him fifth overall last June, but since he's nearly 20 I'd like to see him in games sometime soon.
15. Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins (age 20)
Current level: High Class A (Jupiter)
Preseason ranking: 48
The power so far this year has been a surprise (.551 slugging), but he can really hit -- as in, one of the best pure hit tools in the minors right now. Playing center now but virtually no chance to play there in the majors because of his poor arm.
16. Zack Wheeler, RHP, New York Mets (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Binghamton)
Preseason ranking: 27
The only thing between him and potential No. 1-starterdom is just throwing more strikes. The raw stuff is there.
17. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians (age 1
Current level: Low Class A (Kane County)
Preseason ranking: 35
He's rising fast and could be top 10 by the end of the year. Very advanced for his age, more than holding his own in low-A even though he's 15 months younger than Starling.
18. Nick Castellanos, 3B, Detroit Tigers (20)
Current level: High Class A (Lakeland)
Preseason ranking: 37
He's destroying the Florida State League (.411 BA) and getting better as the season goes along; the defense is adequate, slightly awkward at times but good enough that he should stay there long-term. No power yet, but that will come with age and once he gets out of the power-dampening FSL.
19. Julio Teheran, RHP, Atlanta Braves (age 21)
Current level: Triple-A (Gwinnett)
Preseason ranking: 18
His breaking ball still isn't where it needs to be, and he needs it to improve so hitters can't just try to time the hard but flat fastball -- but he is just 21 in Triple-A with good control, and the velocity is about as easy as it gets.
20. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs (age 22)
Current level: Triple-A (Iowa)
Preseason ranking: 36
Rizzo is shorter to the ball now and even hitting lefties (.327 BA/.377 OBP/.592 SLG in just 53 PA with 12 strikeouts), as well as providing plus defense at first.
21. Oscar Taveras, RF, St. Louis Cardinals (age 19)
Current level: Double-A (Springfield)
Preseason ranking: 53
His swing is unorthodox -- you might even call it ugly -- but it works, well enough to see the bat profiling in an outfield corner, with an average high enough that the OBP is strong even if he draws only 40-50 walks a year.
22. Danny Hultzen, LHP, Seattle Mariners (age 22)
Current level: Double-A (Jackson)
Preseason ranking: 30
Hultzen is nothing spectacular, but he's very close to major league ready, with a changeup as his best shot for an out pitch and above-average command of all of his pitches.
23. Nolan Arenado, 3B, Colorado Rockies (age 21)
Current level: Double-A (Tulsa)
Preseason ranking: 26
Now that the preseason hysteria that had some folks calling for Arenado to get the starting third-base job in Denver has died down, he looks more like the prospect he always was: a high-contact hitter who should hit 20-25 homers at sea level with adequate defense at third.
24. Mason Williams, CF, New York Yankees (age 20)
Current level: Low Class A (Charleston)
Preseason ranking: 34
He's not walking, but he's also making a ton of contact, and he's barely begun to fill out physically. There's a lot of projection involved in this ranking but he's a favorite of many scouts (and of me) because of the substantial upside here.
25. Billy Hamilton, SS, Cincinnati Reds (age 21)
Current level: High Class A (Bakersfield)
Preseason ranking: 64
There's a lot of skepticism out there about where Hamilton's ultimate ceiling lies; he's an 80 runner on the 20-80 scale with 42 steals already this season, and can use his speed to create extra opportunities to reach base, but he lacks power and there's a fair chance he moves either to second or center field. He's an absurd prospect for fantasy players but doesn't look like the kind of player who'll generate four or five wins a year at his peak unless he becomes a plus defender (perhaps in center) and shows he can get strong enough to consistently drive major league pitching.
Here are a handful of prospects to watch for before my midseason update: Jackie Bradley, Jr., CF, Red Sox; Matt Barnes, RHP, Red Sox; Jonathan Singleton, 1B, Astros; Zach Lee, RHP, Dodgers; Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Blue Jays; Austin Hedges, C, Padres; Matt Davidson, 3B, Diamondbacks.
The reward waiting for Cole Hamels.
Spoiler [+]
The answer, in the end, was that the Washington Nationals did not try to hit Cole Hamels with a baseball in response to the left-hander's admission that he had drilled Bryce Harper on purpose.
The Nationals didn't hit him with their bats, either, which makes them no different than the rest of baseball. Hamels shut out the National for eight innings, lowering his ERA to 2.17.
Before the first time Hamels faced the Nationals this year, Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel spoke of how the left-hander has evolved in his time in the majors -- how he'd become more consistent and tougher. And Manuel talked along the same lines after Hamels' dominant outing Wednesday night, as Jerry Crasnick writes: "He's got a lot of determination," Manuel said. "He's a lot different than what you see. If you get to know him, he's a mentally tough guy. When he goes out there, he goes out there to beat you. He has a lot of conviction and confidence in his pitches."
Nine starts into the year, Hamels has built a foundation for one of the greatest free-agent launch pads in baseball history. He is setting himself up for an enormous payday, whether it comes from the Phillies or some other team.
This doesn't always happen, of course. C.J. Wilson wound up with an excellent five-year, $77.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels last fall, but his market value was depreciated by his rough October showing, when evaluators from the New York Yankees and other teams wondered aloud how long his pitching preeminence would last.
John Lackey did fine, too, getting $82.5 million from the Boston Red Sox. But he didn't have a high number of suitors pushing his bidding into nine figures after his above-average final season with the Angels, when he posted a 3.83 ERA.
History tells us that excellence leading up to free agency -- a pitcher's level of dominance -- will significantly impact the offers, because bidders will look at the player as being an immediate difference-maker. Kevin Brown was the ace of the 1998 Padres, going 18-7 with a 2.38 ERA and leading them into the World Series, and despite the fact that he was 32 years old, the Dodgers gave him a record seven-year, $105 million deal.
CC Sabathia had perhaps the greatest season ever for any pitcher headed into free agency in 2008. After winning the 2007 Cy Young Award, Sabathia shook off a sluggish start, and after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, the lefty carried that franchise into its first postseason appearance in 26 years. Sabathia took the ball on three days' rest repeatedly, demonstrating for rival executives his commitment to winning; he was more worried about succeeding for the Brewers than he was about whether he was risking his free-agent payoff. In the end, Sabathia was rewarded with the biggest contract for any free-agent pitcher, signing with the Yankees for $161 million over seven years.
Similarly, Cliff Lee joined the Texas Rangers in midseason and helped them get to their first World Series ever, and he was totally dominant in his first three starts, holding the Tampa Bay Rays and Yankees to two runs in 24 innings. That was enough for him to get a five-year, $120 million deal from the Phillies that winter.
Now it's Hamels who appears to be putting the perfect touches on an already impressive résumé. When the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, Hamels was the National League Championship Series and World Series MVP, and after struggling in 2009, he continued on his upward trajectory in 2010. The Phillies' reluctance in investing in Hamels long-term has seemingly been rooted in the left-hander's injury history early in his career. But from 2008-11, his year-by-year innings count (in the regular season and postseason combined) have been sturdy: 262.1, 212.2, 223.2 and 222.
And he has never pitched better than he is right now, holding up the Phillies' hopes to contend. Hamels has made nine starts and the Phillies have won eight of them; he is 7-1. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. His current ERA is more than half a run lower than in any season of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is at about 5-to-1, the best of his career. He's got more strikeouts (66) than innings (62.1) for the first time in his career. Hamels ranks no worse than seventh in all of the major categories in the NL.
He also has this going for him: Some rival evaluators believe he can continue to be productive as he ages and loses his fastball, because his greatest skill is his ability to alter speeds with his extraordinary changeup.
Hamels, 28, has never set a deadline on his contract talks with the Phillies. But he may have already reached that point in this season when it makes sense for him to test the market -- to give other teams the opportunity to bid against the Phillies and drive up his asking price. He has already made about $35 million in salary in his career, and he's like a millionaire at a blackjack table: He has significantly less risk than others, because he's already financially comfortable.
Matt Cain accepted the five-year, $112.5 million extension from the San Francisco Giants, but Hamels is already in position to ask for more than that -- six years, with more money -- because he has waited. By not accepting the Phillies' overtures with the built-in hometown discount in the offseason, Hamels effectively doubled down on his bet on himself, and now he is only about 18 weeks from reaching free agency.
Like Brown, Sabathia and Lee, there is an enormous payout forming on the horizon for him.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Hamels shut down the Nationals:
A) Nationals hitters were 0-for-12 in at-bats ending with Hamels' off-speed pitches, including 0-for-8 with four strikeouts against his changeup.
B) Induced 12 misses on 24 swings against the changeup, tied for the most misses against the pitch in a start for him this season.
C) Nationals hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with two-strike counts, including 0-for-6 against the changeup.
From Elias Sports Bureau: Hamels pitched eight innings and did not allow a run in his win against the Nationals on Wednesday. Hamels lost his first start this season but he's 7-0 with a 1.86 earned-run average in eight starts since then. Hamels is the fourth Phillies starting pitcher in the last 50 years to win seven or more consecutive decisions before the end of May. The others were Jim Lonborg in 1976 (
, Steve Carlton in 1981 (
and Tommy Greene in 1993 (7).
This is not a salary drive by Hamels, writes Rich Hofmann.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Some rival executives are convinced that Roy Oswalt will sign with the Texas Rangers because of his links to that team, because of the Rangers' strong postseason chances and because of Texas' proximity to Oswalt's Mississippi home.
• The pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez is close to resuming his career, writes Manny Navarro.
• The Colorado Rockies owner says he supports his decision-makers, as Patrick Saunders writes.
• The Cubs' losing streak has reached nine.
• The three catchers who could be the most prominent free agents at the position in the fall -- Mike Napoli (.233, seven homers in 133 at-bats), Russell Martin (.173, four homers in 106 at-bats) and Miguel Montero (.255, two homers in 137 at-bats) -- have struggled early this season.
• Lance Berkman is scheduled for surgery this morning, when it will be determined whether he has a torn ACL.
• The Cleveland Indians took down the Detroit Tigers again with some stellar relief work from Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez, and Cleveland's lead over the Tigers has reached five games.
[h4]Strikeout streaks[/h4]
Most consecutive relief appearances with a strikeout to start a season (since 191.
[table][tr][th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Games
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
1965
[/td][td]
Billy McCool
[/td][td]
25
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1991
[/td][td]
Tom Gordon
[/td][td]
21
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2012
[/td][td]
Vinnie Pestano
[/td][td]
21<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2012
[/td][td]
Aroldis Chapman
[/td][td]
20<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2002
[/td][td]
Byung-Hyun Kim
[/td][td]
20
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1965
[/td][td]
Ted Davidson
[/td][td]
20
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>Active streaks[/td][/tr][/table]
Think about this: Pestano has never had an outing of more than four outs, yet he has at least one strikeout in every appearance.
• Opposing left-handed hitters against Aroldis Chapman this season: 3-for-31 with 20 strikeouts. Chapman was the winning pitcher after teammate Todd Frazier did his thing against the Atlanta Braves.
Chapman's speeding ticket the other day was at least his fourth in two years, writes Carrie Whitaker.
• Within this Larry Stone notebook, Seattle Mariners manager Eric Wedge is asked whether Seattle should move in its fences, and his answer is telling:
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Addison Reed has been named the closer of the Chicago White Sox.
2. The Toronto Blue Jays have extended their agreement with their Double-A affiliate.
3. J.J. Putz has Kirk Gibson's support.
4. Dylan Bundy has been promoted to High-A.
5. David Ortiz deserves a two-year extension, writes Nick Cafardo.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Justin Morneau is playing a lot of first base since being activated off the disabled list, as Ben Goessling writes.
2. The Milwaukee Brewers suffered yet another injury.
3. Daniel Hudson is close to coming back, writes Doug Haller.
4. Miguel Olivo is close to returning to the Mariners from the DL.
5. Here's an update on Mike Morse, from Adam Kilgore.
6. Brian Roberts is making progress.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Chris Sale was The Man for the White Sox, as Darryl Van Schouwen writes.
2. The Tigers lost again, stranding almost a dozen baserunners. They're blaming almost everyone but themselves, writes Drew Sharp. Detroit's big hitters have been a big disappointment, writes Bob Wojnowski.
3. Scott Diamond pitched effectively but lost.
4. A Kansas City Royals rookie was rocked.
5. You watch the Rays hit these days and it reminds you of the Denver Broncos' second halves last season: You're not quite sure how they're going to get enough offense to win -- but they figure out a way. And it was B.J. Upton who had the Hail Mary RBI on Wednesday.
6. Scott Feldman made a bad pitch.
7. The Colorado Rockies got a big lift from Troy Tulowitzki, and he was moved to say it was a big win for a team in a losing streak, as Troy Renck writes.
8. The Jays lost; they need Ricky Romero to find his groove, writes Richard Griffin.
9. The St. Louis Cardinals completed a sweep.
10. Kevin Millwood continues to pitch well.
11. Barry Zito had a bad day.
12. Ted Lilly had a bad day.
13. Alberto Callaspo got a big hit for the Angels.
14. Tommy Hanson threw well, but the Braves lost on a walk-off.
15. Carlos Zambrano isn't perfect, as it turns out.
16. The Red Sox, playing their 20th game in 20 days, pulled out a win and now get to rest, as Scott Lauber writes. The Red Sox right fielder made a game-saving catch.
17. Alex Rodriguez rediscovered his groove. He showed he's well-adjusted, writes Kevin Kernan. He made good on his prediction, writes John Harper.
18. Jon Niese was The Man for the New York Mets.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats & Info:
8: Earned runs allowed by Ted Lilly on Wednesday after allowing 10 ER in his previous 10 starts combined dating back to last season.
36: Strikeouts by Cole Hamels on changeups this season, tied for the most by any pitcher.
60: Multi-home run games by Alex Rodriguez, seventh-most in MLB history.
452: Feet of Jose Bautista's home run Wednesday, the seventh home run of his career with a true distance of at least 450 feet.
The Nationals didn't hit him with their bats, either, which makes them no different than the rest of baseball. Hamels shut out the National for eight innings, lowering his ERA to 2.17.
Before the first time Hamels faced the Nationals this year, Philadelphia Phillies manager Charlie Manuel spoke of how the left-hander has evolved in his time in the majors -- how he'd become more consistent and tougher. And Manuel talked along the same lines after Hamels' dominant outing Wednesday night, as Jerry Crasnick writes: "He's got a lot of determination," Manuel said. "He's a lot different than what you see. If you get to know him, he's a mentally tough guy. When he goes out there, he goes out there to beat you. He has a lot of conviction and confidence in his pitches."
Nine starts into the year, Hamels has built a foundation for one of the greatest free-agent launch pads in baseball history. He is setting himself up for an enormous payday, whether it comes from the Phillies or some other team.
This doesn't always happen, of course. C.J. Wilson wound up with an excellent five-year, $77.5 million deal with the Los Angeles Angels last fall, but his market value was depreciated by his rough October showing, when evaluators from the New York Yankees and other teams wondered aloud how long his pitching preeminence would last.
John Lackey did fine, too, getting $82.5 million from the Boston Red Sox. But he didn't have a high number of suitors pushing his bidding into nine figures after his above-average final season with the Angels, when he posted a 3.83 ERA.
History tells us that excellence leading up to free agency -- a pitcher's level of dominance -- will significantly impact the offers, because bidders will look at the player as being an immediate difference-maker. Kevin Brown was the ace of the 1998 Padres, going 18-7 with a 2.38 ERA and leading them into the World Series, and despite the fact that he was 32 years old, the Dodgers gave him a record seven-year, $105 million deal.
CC Sabathia had perhaps the greatest season ever for any pitcher headed into free agency in 2008. After winning the 2007 Cy Young Award, Sabathia shook off a sluggish start, and after being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, the lefty carried that franchise into its first postseason appearance in 26 years. Sabathia took the ball on three days' rest repeatedly, demonstrating for rival executives his commitment to winning; he was more worried about succeeding for the Brewers than he was about whether he was risking his free-agent payoff. In the end, Sabathia was rewarded with the biggest contract for any free-agent pitcher, signing with the Yankees for $161 million over seven years.
Similarly, Cliff Lee joined the Texas Rangers in midseason and helped them get to their first World Series ever, and he was totally dominant in his first three starts, holding the Tampa Bay Rays and Yankees to two runs in 24 innings. That was enough for him to get a five-year, $120 million deal from the Phillies that winter.
Now it's Hamels who appears to be putting the perfect touches on an already impressive résumé. When the Phillies won the World Series in 2008, Hamels was the National League Championship Series and World Series MVP, and after struggling in 2009, he continued on his upward trajectory in 2010. The Phillies' reluctance in investing in Hamels long-term has seemingly been rooted in the left-hander's injury history early in his career. But from 2008-11, his year-by-year innings count (in the regular season and postseason combined) have been sturdy: 262.1, 212.2, 223.2 and 222.
And he has never pitched better than he is right now, holding up the Phillies' hopes to contend. Hamels has made nine starts and the Phillies have won eight of them; he is 7-1. He has allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. His current ERA is more than half a run lower than in any season of his career. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is at about 5-to-1, the best of his career. He's got more strikeouts (66) than innings (62.1) for the first time in his career. Hamels ranks no worse than seventh in all of the major categories in the NL.
He also has this going for him: Some rival evaluators believe he can continue to be productive as he ages and loses his fastball, because his greatest skill is his ability to alter speeds with his extraordinary changeup.
Hamels, 28, has never set a deadline on his contract talks with the Phillies. But he may have already reached that point in this season when it makes sense for him to test the market -- to give other teams the opportunity to bid against the Phillies and drive up his asking price. He has already made about $35 million in salary in his career, and he's like a millionaire at a blackjack table: He has significantly less risk than others, because he's already financially comfortable.
Matt Cain accepted the five-year, $112.5 million extension from the San Francisco Giants, but Hamels is already in position to ask for more than that -- six years, with more money -- because he has waited. By not accepting the Phillies' overtures with the built-in hometown discount in the offseason, Hamels effectively doubled down on his bet on himself, and now he is only about 18 weeks from reaching free agency.
Like Brown, Sabathia and Lee, there is an enormous payout forming on the horizon for him.
From ESPN Stats & Info, how Hamels shut down the Nationals:
A) Nationals hitters were 0-for-12 in at-bats ending with Hamels' off-speed pitches, including 0-for-8 with four strikeouts against his changeup.
B) Induced 12 misses on 24 swings against the changeup, tied for the most misses against the pitch in a start for him this season.
C) Nationals hitters were 1-for-14 in at-bats ending with two-strike counts, including 0-for-6 against the changeup.
From Elias Sports Bureau: Hamels pitched eight innings and did not allow a run in his win against the Nationals on Wednesday. Hamels lost his first start this season but he's 7-0 with a 1.86 earned-run average in eight starts since then. Hamels is the fourth Phillies starting pitcher in the last 50 years to win seven or more consecutive decisions before the end of May. The others were Jim Lonborg in 1976 (
This is not a salary drive by Hamels, writes Rich Hofmann.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• Some rival executives are convinced that Roy Oswalt will sign with the Texas Rangers because of his links to that team, because of the Rangers' strong postseason chances and because of Texas' proximity to Oswalt's Mississippi home.
• The pitcher formerly known as Leo Nunez is close to resuming his career, writes Manny Navarro.
• The Colorado Rockies owner says he supports his decision-makers, as Patrick Saunders writes.
• The Cubs' losing streak has reached nine.
• The three catchers who could be the most prominent free agents at the position in the fall -- Mike Napoli (.233, seven homers in 133 at-bats), Russell Martin (.173, four homers in 106 at-bats) and Miguel Montero (.255, two homers in 137 at-bats) -- have struggled early this season.
• Lance Berkman is scheduled for surgery this morning, when it will be determined whether he has a torn ACL.
• The Cleveland Indians took down the Detroit Tigers again with some stellar relief work from Vinnie Pestano and Chris Perez, and Cleveland's lead over the Tigers has reached five games.
[h4]Strikeout streaks[/h4]
Most consecutive relief appearances with a strikeout to start a season (since 191
.[table][tr][th=""]
Season
[/th][th=""]
Player
[/th][th=""]
Games
[/th][/tr][tr][td]
1965
[/td][td]
Billy McCool
[/td][td]
25
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1991
[/td][td]
Tom Gordon
[/td][td]
21
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2012
[/td][td]
Vinnie Pestano
[/td][td]
21<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2012
[/td][td]
Aroldis Chapman
[/td][td]
20<<
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
2002
[/td][td]
Byung-Hyun Kim
[/td][td]
20
[/td][/tr][tr][td]
1965
[/td][td]
Ted Davidson
[/td][td]
20
[/td][/tr][tr][td]>>Active streaks[/td][/tr][/table]
Think about this: Pestano has never had an outing of more than four outs, yet he has at least one strikeout in every appearance.
• Opposing left-handed hitters against Aroldis Chapman this season: 3-for-31 with 20 strikeouts. Chapman was the winning pitcher after teammate Todd Frazier did his thing against the Atlanta Braves.
Chapman's speeding ticket the other day was at least his fourth in two years, writes Carrie Whitaker.
• Within this Larry Stone notebook, Seattle Mariners manager Eric Wedge is asked whether Seattle should move in its fences, and his answer is telling:
- "Like I've always said, Jack (Zduriencik) and I talk every day. Jack talks to the powers that be on a daily basis. When the season's all said and done, we're going to evaluate everything. I mean, everything. Both on and off the field, both in regard to the field or anything else regarding that. I'll leave it at that.
- "The longer I'm here -- nothing's going to happen this season, that's obvious -- but it does allow me to give it another four months to take a peek at it, too. I have my thoughts, of which I will not let you in on. Safe to say we will evaluate everything when the season's done."
- Asked if he thinks it gets in the players' heads when they hit a drive they're sure is out of the park, only to have it die on the warning track, he said:
- "What we don't want it to be is a crutch. There's no excuses here. These players are young enough, and I think they're tough enough, they can handle anything that comes their way. Having said that, they're human. Whether it be a ball you hit right on the screws you line out to the third baseman, or one you hit you feel it's gone and they grab it, you're going to have human moments. I accept that."
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. Addison Reed has been named the closer of the Chicago White Sox.
2. The Toronto Blue Jays have extended their agreement with their Double-A affiliate.
3. J.J. Putz has Kirk Gibson's support.
4. Dylan Bundy has been promoted to High-A.
5. David Ortiz deserves a two-year extension, writes Nick Cafardo.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
1. Justin Morneau is playing a lot of first base since being activated off the disabled list, as Ben Goessling writes.
2. The Milwaukee Brewers suffered yet another injury.
3. Daniel Hudson is close to coming back, writes Doug Haller.
4. Miguel Olivo is close to returning to the Mariners from the DL.
5. Here's an update on Mike Morse, from Adam Kilgore.
6. Brian Roberts is making progress.
[h3]Wednesday's games[/h3]
1. Chris Sale was The Man for the White Sox, as Darryl Van Schouwen writes.
2. The Tigers lost again, stranding almost a dozen baserunners. They're blaming almost everyone but themselves, writes Drew Sharp. Detroit's big hitters have been a big disappointment, writes Bob Wojnowski.
3. Scott Diamond pitched effectively but lost.
4. A Kansas City Royals rookie was rocked.
5. You watch the Rays hit these days and it reminds you of the Denver Broncos' second halves last season: You're not quite sure how they're going to get enough offense to win -- but they figure out a way. And it was B.J. Upton who had the Hail Mary RBI on Wednesday.
6. Scott Feldman made a bad pitch.
7. The Colorado Rockies got a big lift from Troy Tulowitzki, and he was moved to say it was a big win for a team in a losing streak, as Troy Renck writes.
8. The Jays lost; they need Ricky Romero to find his groove, writes Richard Griffin.
9. The St. Louis Cardinals completed a sweep.
10. Kevin Millwood continues to pitch well.
11. Barry Zito had a bad day.
12. Ted Lilly had a bad day.
13. Alberto Callaspo got a big hit for the Angels.
14. Tommy Hanson threw well, but the Braves lost on a walk-off.
15. Carlos Zambrano isn't perfect, as it turns out.
16. The Red Sox, playing their 20th game in 20 days, pulled out a win and now get to rest, as Scott Lauber writes. The Red Sox right fielder made a game-saving catch.
17. Alex Rodriguez rediscovered his groove. He showed he's well-adjusted, writes Kevin Kernan. He made good on his prediction, writes John Harper.
18. Jon Niese was The Man for the New York Mets.
By The Numbers, from ESPN Stats & Info:
8: Earned runs allowed by Ted Lilly on Wednesday after allowing 10 ER in his previous 10 starts combined dating back to last season.
36: Strikeouts by Cole Hamels on changeups this season, tied for the most by any pitcher.
60: Multi-home run games by Alex Rodriguez, seventh-most in MLB history.
452: Feet of Jose Bautista's home run Wednesday, the seventh home run of his career with a true distance of at least 450 feet.
How Boras can exploit the draft.
Spoiler [+]
The general consensus is that this is a weak draft class, especially when compared to last year's monster collection of talent. For many, the most interesting aspect of this year's draft might not be who is selected by whom, but rather what happens in terms of negotiations between the picks and the new July 13 signing deadline. That deadline isn't the only new draft rule that comes with the latest collective bargaining agreement. The new CBA also includes assigned signing bonus pools for each team, strict penalties for exceeding them, and the inability to provide major league contracts. In other words, we're entering uncharted waters.
Enter Scott Boras, the man whom most of the changes to the draft in the last 20-plus years have revolved around. He's found plenty of tactics and loopholes to get the best deals for the draft prospects he is advising, and nobody in the industry thinks that will stop just because of stringent guidelines.
"People have to remember that Boras tends to find things to his clients' advantage," said one American League scouting official. "And when baseball tries to fight him on them, they tend to lose."
An AL assistant GM agreed: "Boras did not recruit Lance McCullers and Albert Almora by telling them they're just going to get slot money."
But what are Boras' options with teams unable to offer huge packages and major league deals? It'll take time for teams and advisers to find a middle ground with the new rules, but a poll in the industry suggests Boras' first tactic will be simply to attempt to convince teams that his players are worth the penalty.
"I'm sure he'll try to convince somebody that [Stanford right-hander Mark] Appel is worth whatever the penalty is," said an American League general manager. "I'm sure he'll try to show that the player is worth it, but what is the leverage now? To bring him back next year under the same rules?"
Boras contends that he's not trying to fool anyone. "I'm a lawyer and I understand something has been collectively bargained, and we are in no position to ask anyone to give it away," he said. "I'll play by their rules, and I don't want to complain about it. I don't want shenanigans."
Of course, that won't stop people in the industry from speculating about what Boras could do to circumvent the system, and here are a few possibilities.
[h3]Gaming the system[/h3]
[h4]New draft rules[/h4]
Here are some key new rules to keep in mind for this year's draft. For a full breakdown from Kristi Dosh, click here.
• Teams will be assigned a signing bonus pool each year for their picks in the first 10 rounds. The system is slotted, and each pick from 1 through 300 has an assigned value, which ranges from $7.2 million to $125,000 this year.
• If a team exceeds its total bonus pool by 0 to 5 percent, it will be charged a 75 percent tax on the overage.
• If the pool is exceeded by 5 to 10 percent, the penalty is a 75 percent tax on the overage and the loss of a first-round pick the following year.
• A 10 to 15 percent overage carries a 100 percent tax and the loss of first- and second-round picks the following year.
• If a team exceeds the pool by more than 15 percent, it will incur a 100 percent tax and the loss of two first-round picks the next year.
An American League assistant GM agreed that while some teams might pay the taxes for going a bit over the assigned spending pools, nobody in this year's class is worth the stricter penalties (see table on right).
"I would be absolutely shocked if somebody gives up a pick," he said, while adding that the quality of talent plays a role in that decision. "I can count on one hand the number of players in the last 10 years that a team even might be willing to give up a pick to sign. And none of them are in this year's draft."
One GM agreed, mostly because no team will want to be the first to make such a bold move.
"Any time you have a new system and new rule, you don't have precedents," he explained. "You can't go backwards. Once a team punts a pick, every agent is going to say their player is worth the same."
A National League scouting director agreed, stating that gauging a player's demands because selection will play a more critical role than ever.
"In the draft room, we're going to be doing a lot of work on signability," he explained. "If we want a guy and we don't think he's going to sign for the money we can reasonably spend, we just might go to the next player who is. Calling a guy's bluff when it comes to what kind of money he's asking for is going to be much harder than before."
And then there are the thoughts of working around the standard player contract. "I don't think we're looking at an international-incident level of chicanery," an American League official said. "Things you can't put into a contract, like promises of money down the road or getting added to the 40-man roster by a certain point. Hell, that stuff probably went on before this."
Meanwhile, a National League official thought things could get even shadier. "I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of side deals," he explained. "Look at all of the shady stuff that goes on in Latin America. It would be harder to do here because of the paper trail, but teams want to win, and if you funnel some extra cash to someone and nobody knows about it, is it a crime?"
As for Boras, he doesn't take personal offense to the new guidelines, though from a distance it seems like nearly all the rules changes in the last 20 years have been in reaction to his negotiating tactics. Still, he certainly has issues with a system that has nothing in place to pay for elite-level talent, the only kind Boras tends to represent.
"If you look at the track record, every player since 1997 that I've gotten $4 million or more for has spent significant time in the big leagues," he said. "It's not like I want to burn the market. Smart teams know that, and if the system is putting an artificial value on talent, teams that know the real value of these players will take advantage of it."
[+] Enlarge
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesThere is no player as good as Stephen Strasburg in this year's draft to really test the new system.
That dynamic could come into play dramatically this year in a class with so little talent. If, for example, the Astros want to take Appel (who is advised by Boras) with the No. 1 pick, Appel could say to the Astros, "I know how shallow this draft is, and I think I am worth much more than the $7.2 million bonus assigned to my draft spot." In that instance, the Astros could give him more than $7.2 million, but it counts against their overall pool of roughly $11.2 million, and would thus give them less flexibility later in the draft.
"This is not a draft where the system is dramatically at odds with the talent," Boras said. "The best players are going to go to the teams with the most money. GMs worth their salt are not going to spend in a draft with mediocrity after the 15th pick or so where those guys would have been the 40th pick last year. They'll pay very well to get a top-six or -seven player if he drops, because high-drafting teams in the lower echelon money-wise can't afford the risk of giving away 40 percent of their draft pool."
The problem of players dropping due to signability issues was one of the key concepts of the new rules, but the way Boras sees it, the opposite could end up in play.
"The rules shouldn't impact things; the talent should," Boras explained. "This is the one thing baseball always wanted, to have the order of picks line up with the order of talent, and now that will not happen. Many teams are not going to draft players that say no to the baseline money, and teams drafting low that have money will pounce on it."
[h3]Future changes[/h3]
Even though we haven't even seen the new system in action yet, Boras is already thinking about the future of the draft and has his own ideas on how to fix -- or at least improve -- the current system, and he insists his ideas are in the best interests of not just the agents and the players, but for all of baseball.
"I owe everything in my life to baseball; the game has given me everything," he said. "I'm here to represent players because that's the best thing I can do for the game. I really want to see the game grow and make sure we get the best athletes. We have a window of opportunity with football's medical issue to keep our athletes in baseball, a safe game, but we can't do that without making sure those players get the value scouts see in them."
Boras' first not-so-radical idea is that of a five-year spending pool that would still provide the game with cost certainty, but far greater flexibility to adjust to the strength of each year's class.
"The problem is that we are forcing teams to spend in a bad year, when you could let them spend more in a better year," he said. "The draft is a 99-1 concept. About 1,000 kids sign every year and maybe 10 have a value in the end that's really significantly different from the other 990. Some years it's 30, and some years it's five. That's the reason for this pooling concept.
"You have a pool of money within a five-year framework with a minimum and maximum amount of money based on a team's record and then reductions for free-agent spending. This gives teams and scouting directors the freedom of their intellect. There is no limit in a single year, so a team could decide to spend very little in a weak year and then $20 million in another. This allows baseball to keep the best players in the game, allows the money to flow properly in line with the talent and still gives baseball the cost containment that they want. We judge teams and front offices by their intellectual quality in terms of trades and free agents, so why not the draft?"
The idea was well-received by some in the industry. "A lot of people won't like that just because it's Scott's idea, but I love it," one general manager said. "The current system is short-sighted. It takes away individuality and the concept of having competitive advantages though the evaluation of talent."
In addition, Boras wants to reward small-market teams that perform well in scouting and player development through establishing a draft exception rule.
"We need to reward revenue-sharing teams for winning at the big league level," Boras said. "When a revenue-sharing team makes the playoffs, they should get an exception where they can spend what they want on one pick the following year."
The purpose of the concept is to not only encourage greater parity in the game, but to also reinforce the value of building through scouting and player development. "These teams can't spend free-agency money, so we give them a reward for building through the draft," Boras said. "It lets teams keep their competitive standards, rewards them for building a winner internally -- and let's face it, more good teams keep the game exciting."
Still, those are pipe dreams for now, and the reality of the new rules makes Boras wonder about how they would have affected an elite class like that of last year.
"You had so many players worth $5 million or more last June that many of them would not have signed," Boras said. "Bubba Starling [who had a scholarship offer to play quarterback at Nebraska] would not be a baseball player. Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley would have went to junior college and been better off in this draft, and that's not good for baseball."
For the most part, neither teams nor agents have a good feel for what will happen between the first pick June 4 and the signing deadline about a month later, but few are happy with the developments.
"I think in the end you'll see the same percentage of players sign that did in the old system," an American League official said. "There will be more disgruntled parties and more hurt feelings, but the results will be the same."
Adds an NL scouting director: "It all comes down to what the Astros do with that first pick. That's going to set the tone immediately as to whether all of this is going to 'work' or not, and other teams will follow suit based on that pick."
As for Boras, he says he'll play by the rules, but no agent has found more ways around them in history of the draft, and it would be foolish to think he's not looking for another. And the next time a Stephen Strasburg-type talent comes around, watch out.
"The Titanic is in the water, and the iceberg is the draft," Boras quipped. "The big one might not be in this year's class … but it's coming."
Kevin Goldstein covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has worked since 2006 for Baseball Prospectus, where he is a national writer, and has covered the sport for a decade, with a focus on scouting, prospects and player development. He has previously worked for Baseball America and the self-started The Prospect Report. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Enter Scott Boras, the man whom most of the changes to the draft in the last 20-plus years have revolved around. He's found plenty of tactics and loopholes to get the best deals for the draft prospects he is advising, and nobody in the industry thinks that will stop just because of stringent guidelines.
"People have to remember that Boras tends to find things to his clients' advantage," said one American League scouting official. "And when baseball tries to fight him on them, they tend to lose."
An AL assistant GM agreed: "Boras did not recruit Lance McCullers and Albert Almora by telling them they're just going to get slot money."
But what are Boras' options with teams unable to offer huge packages and major league deals? It'll take time for teams and advisers to find a middle ground with the new rules, but a poll in the industry suggests Boras' first tactic will be simply to attempt to convince teams that his players are worth the penalty.
"I'm sure he'll try to convince somebody that [Stanford right-hander Mark] Appel is worth whatever the penalty is," said an American League general manager. "I'm sure he'll try to show that the player is worth it, but what is the leverage now? To bring him back next year under the same rules?"
Boras contends that he's not trying to fool anyone. "I'm a lawyer and I understand something has been collectively bargained, and we are in no position to ask anyone to give it away," he said. "I'll play by their rules, and I don't want to complain about it. I don't want shenanigans."
Of course, that won't stop people in the industry from speculating about what Boras could do to circumvent the system, and here are a few possibilities.
[h3]Gaming the system[/h3]
[h4]New draft rules[/h4]
Here are some key new rules to keep in mind for this year's draft. For a full breakdown from Kristi Dosh, click here.
• Teams will be assigned a signing bonus pool each year for their picks in the first 10 rounds. The system is slotted, and each pick from 1 through 300 has an assigned value, which ranges from $7.2 million to $125,000 this year.
• If a team exceeds its total bonus pool by 0 to 5 percent, it will be charged a 75 percent tax on the overage.
• If the pool is exceeded by 5 to 10 percent, the penalty is a 75 percent tax on the overage and the loss of a first-round pick the following year.
• A 10 to 15 percent overage carries a 100 percent tax and the loss of first- and second-round picks the following year.
• If a team exceeds the pool by more than 15 percent, it will incur a 100 percent tax and the loss of two first-round picks the next year.
An American League assistant GM agreed that while some teams might pay the taxes for going a bit over the assigned spending pools, nobody in this year's class is worth the stricter penalties (see table on right).
"I would be absolutely shocked if somebody gives up a pick," he said, while adding that the quality of talent plays a role in that decision. "I can count on one hand the number of players in the last 10 years that a team even might be willing to give up a pick to sign. And none of them are in this year's draft."
One GM agreed, mostly because no team will want to be the first to make such a bold move.
"Any time you have a new system and new rule, you don't have precedents," he explained. "You can't go backwards. Once a team punts a pick, every agent is going to say their player is worth the same."
A National League scouting director agreed, stating that gauging a player's demands because selection will play a more critical role than ever.
"In the draft room, we're going to be doing a lot of work on signability," he explained. "If we want a guy and we don't think he's going to sign for the money we can reasonably spend, we just might go to the next player who is. Calling a guy's bluff when it comes to what kind of money he's asking for is going to be much harder than before."
And then there are the thoughts of working around the standard player contract. "I don't think we're looking at an international-incident level of chicanery," an American League official said. "Things you can't put into a contract, like promises of money down the road or getting added to the 40-man roster by a certain point. Hell, that stuff probably went on before this."
Meanwhile, a National League official thought things could get even shadier. "I wouldn't underestimate the possibility of side deals," he explained. "Look at all of the shady stuff that goes on in Latin America. It would be harder to do here because of the paper trail, but teams want to win, and if you funnel some extra cash to someone and nobody knows about it, is it a crime?"
As for Boras, he doesn't take personal offense to the new guidelines, though from a distance it seems like nearly all the rules changes in the last 20 years have been in reaction to his negotiating tactics. Still, he certainly has issues with a system that has nothing in place to pay for elite-level talent, the only kind Boras tends to represent.
"If you look at the track record, every player since 1997 that I've gotten $4 million or more for has spent significant time in the big leagues," he said. "It's not like I want to burn the market. Smart teams know that, and if the system is putting an artificial value on talent, teams that know the real value of these players will take advantage of it."
[+] Enlarge
Jonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesThere is no player as good as Stephen Strasburg in this year's draft to really test the new system.
That dynamic could come into play dramatically this year in a class with so little talent. If, for example, the Astros want to take Appel (who is advised by Boras) with the No. 1 pick, Appel could say to the Astros, "I know how shallow this draft is, and I think I am worth much more than the $7.2 million bonus assigned to my draft spot." In that instance, the Astros could give him more than $7.2 million, but it counts against their overall pool of roughly $11.2 million, and would thus give them less flexibility later in the draft.
"This is not a draft where the system is dramatically at odds with the talent," Boras said. "The best players are going to go to the teams with the most money. GMs worth their salt are not going to spend in a draft with mediocrity after the 15th pick or so where those guys would have been the 40th pick last year. They'll pay very well to get a top-six or -seven player if he drops, because high-drafting teams in the lower echelon money-wise can't afford the risk of giving away 40 percent of their draft pool."
The problem of players dropping due to signability issues was one of the key concepts of the new rules, but the way Boras sees it, the opposite could end up in play.
"The rules shouldn't impact things; the talent should," Boras explained. "This is the one thing baseball always wanted, to have the order of picks line up with the order of talent, and now that will not happen. Many teams are not going to draft players that say no to the baseline money, and teams drafting low that have money will pounce on it."
[h3]Future changes[/h3]
Even though we haven't even seen the new system in action yet, Boras is already thinking about the future of the draft and has his own ideas on how to fix -- or at least improve -- the current system, and he insists his ideas are in the best interests of not just the agents and the players, but for all of baseball.
"I owe everything in my life to baseball; the game has given me everything," he said. "I'm here to represent players because that's the best thing I can do for the game. I really want to see the game grow and make sure we get the best athletes. We have a window of opportunity with football's medical issue to keep our athletes in baseball, a safe game, but we can't do that without making sure those players get the value scouts see in them."
Boras' first not-so-radical idea is that of a five-year spending pool that would still provide the game with cost certainty, but far greater flexibility to adjust to the strength of each year's class.
"The problem is that we are forcing teams to spend in a bad year, when you could let them spend more in a better year," he said. "The draft is a 99-1 concept. About 1,000 kids sign every year and maybe 10 have a value in the end that's really significantly different from the other 990. Some years it's 30, and some years it's five. That's the reason for this pooling concept.
"You have a pool of money within a five-year framework with a minimum and maximum amount of money based on a team's record and then reductions for free-agent spending. This gives teams and scouting directors the freedom of their intellect. There is no limit in a single year, so a team could decide to spend very little in a weak year and then $20 million in another. This allows baseball to keep the best players in the game, allows the money to flow properly in line with the talent and still gives baseball the cost containment that they want. We judge teams and front offices by their intellectual quality in terms of trades and free agents, so why not the draft?"
The idea was well-received by some in the industry. "A lot of people won't like that just because it's Scott's idea, but I love it," one general manager said. "The current system is short-sighted. It takes away individuality and the concept of having competitive advantages though the evaluation of talent."
In addition, Boras wants to reward small-market teams that perform well in scouting and player development through establishing a draft exception rule.
"We need to reward revenue-sharing teams for winning at the big league level," Boras said. "When a revenue-sharing team makes the playoffs, they should get an exception where they can spend what they want on one pick the following year."
The purpose of the concept is to not only encourage greater parity in the game, but to also reinforce the value of building through scouting and player development. "These teams can't spend free-agency money, so we give them a reward for building through the draft," Boras said. "It lets teams keep their competitive standards, rewards them for building a winner internally -- and let's face it, more good teams keep the game exciting."
Still, those are pipe dreams for now, and the reality of the new rules makes Boras wonder about how they would have affected an elite class like that of last year.
"You had so many players worth $5 million or more last June that many of them would not have signed," Boras said. "Bubba Starling [who had a scholarship offer to play quarterback at Nebraska] would not be a baseball player. Dylan Bundy and Archie Bradley would have went to junior college and been better off in this draft, and that's not good for baseball."
For the most part, neither teams nor agents have a good feel for what will happen between the first pick June 4 and the signing deadline about a month later, but few are happy with the developments.
"I think in the end you'll see the same percentage of players sign that did in the old system," an American League official said. "There will be more disgruntled parties and more hurt feelings, but the results will be the same."
Adds an NL scouting director: "It all comes down to what the Astros do with that first pick. That's going to set the tone immediately as to whether all of this is going to 'work' or not, and other teams will follow suit based on that pick."
As for Boras, he says he'll play by the rules, but no agent has found more ways around them in history of the draft, and it would be foolish to think he's not looking for another. And the next time a Stephen Strasburg-type talent comes around, watch out.
"The Titanic is in the water, and the iceberg is the draft," Boras quipped. "The big one might not be in this year's class … but it's coming."
Kevin Goldstein covers baseball for ESPN Insider. He has worked since 2006 for Baseball Prospectus, where he is a national writer, and has covered the sport for a decade, with a focus on scouting, prospects and player development. He has previously worked for Baseball America and the self-started The Prospect Report. You can find his ESPN archives here, and follow him on Twitter here.
Baltimore's unsustainable pace.
Spoiler [+]
The Baltimore Orioles have been on quite the roll this season. Since being swept by the New York Yankees in the season's second series, the O's have rattled off a 24-12 record and, as a result, have seen their rank in the ESPN Power Rankings rise dramatically. They began the season ranked 28th and have moved up steadily -- no more than eight spots in any one week -- to rank second this week.
But while the Orioles have been a great story and have easily exceeded the modest expectations laid out for them at the outset of the season, they simply aren't this good.
One of the main reasons we can expect the Orioles to fade back is their record in one-run games. Right now, the O's are 8-3 in such games, which is good for the third-best mark in the game. If that .727 winning percentage in one-run affairs held, it would tie the 1970 Orioles for the third-best mark since 1901. You might remember that team -- it had three aces in Jim Palmer, Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar -- and went on to win the World Series in five games. And while Baltimore has had better-than-expected pitching this season, it's not good enough to maintain that pace in one-run games.
For the season, the Orioles' rank eighth in baseball with a 3.48 team ERA, but theirFIP is middle of the pack. The club's starters rank 18th with a 4.04 FIP, the relievers rank 16th with a 3.77 FIP and overall the team's 3.94 FIP also ranks 16th. One of the reasons the bullpen has looked better than that middle-of-the-pack rank is the ridiculously low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) by its most prominent members.
Entering Sunday's action, Pedro Strop, Jim Johnson, Luis Ayala and Darren O'Day -- who had combined to throw nearly 60 percent of the bullpen's innings -- all had BABIPs at least 45 points below their career averages. Johnson and Strop -- who are throwing the bullpen's highest-leverage innings -- are both sporting BABIPs nearly 100 points below their career averages.
The starters haven't caught the same breaks, but the top of the rotation has been instrumental to the club's success. Jason Hammel has been a pitcher reborn since coming to Baltimore, thanks in large part to his renewed focus on his two-seam fastball. He is not only generating more grounders, but also more swings and misses than ever before, and his 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings is by far a career best. But after allowing two runs or fewer in each of his first six starts, he has allowed nine runs in his past two.
Wei-Yin Chen, who the Orioles brought over from Japan, may be facing an even tougher road to maintain his excellent start. His 6.55 K/9 is below average, and while his above-average swinging-strike percentage suggests that his K/9 may tick up, Chen may soon have a hard time as a fly ball pitcher at Camden Yards. Chen had allowed a low rate of home runs until Sunday, when he allowed two against the Washington Nationals. The home runs knocked his homers per nine back to league-average levels, and whether he can keep his HR/9 in check will be something to watch as the summer progresses.
While neither Hammel nor Chen has put together a full season of dominant pitching in the majors, Baltimore will need them to keep pitching like All-Stars, because the rest of the rotation isn't nearly as refined. Jake Arrieta's overall line looks good, as he has compiled a 3.76 FIP and an 8.30 K/9. But Arrieta has been boom or bust -- he has allowed one run or less in three outings and five runs or more in three others. In addition, his swinging-strike percentage is below average, so he may see his K/9 peter back closer to his career 6.49 mark.
Fourth starter Brian Matusz is healthy and has his velocity back, but the results are not yet there. Entering Sunday, his 1.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio was tied for 101st among 118 qualified pitchers. Fifth starter Tommy Hunter is even worse. Entering Sunday, the only starting pitchers with a FIP worse than Hunter's 5.52 mark were Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez.
All of this is to say that the Orioles' hitters will need to keep producing runs by the barrel full if they are to stay in the scrum that is the American League East. Which, granted, they may be able to do. By just about every measure, the Orioles have a top-10 offense. The O's lead the majors with a .195 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average), and the team's slugging percentage and wOBA both rank in the top 10 as well.
Adam Jones, in particular, is really emerging this year -- if it wasn't for Josh Hamilton, a lot more people would be talking up Jones as an MVP candidate. But they are not bulletproof here, either -- the one area in which they are vulnerable is walk-to-strikeout ratio. The club has a 0.35 BB/K that is next to last in the game. And surprisingly, noted strikeout artist Mark Reynolds has not been the biggest offender, as Robert Andino, Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Nick Johnson and Jones all have worse marks than Reynolds.
The Orioles have been a good story thus far, and their plus-14 run differential shows that they haven't been a complete mirage. But they have been fortunate, particularly in one-run games. The team's pitching is more middle of the road than its 3.48 ERA would suggest. Baltimore may be in the hunt to stay, but it isn't anywhere near the second-best team in baseball.
But while the Orioles have been a great story and have easily exceeded the modest expectations laid out for them at the outset of the season, they simply aren't this good.
One of the main reasons we can expect the Orioles to fade back is their record in one-run games. Right now, the O's are 8-3 in such games, which is good for the third-best mark in the game. If that .727 winning percentage in one-run affairs held, it would tie the 1970 Orioles for the third-best mark since 1901. You might remember that team -- it had three aces in Jim Palmer, Dave McNally and Mike Cuellar -- and went on to win the World Series in five games. And while Baltimore has had better-than-expected pitching this season, it's not good enough to maintain that pace in one-run games.
For the season, the Orioles' rank eighth in baseball with a 3.48 team ERA, but theirFIP is middle of the pack. The club's starters rank 18th with a 4.04 FIP, the relievers rank 16th with a 3.77 FIP and overall the team's 3.94 FIP also ranks 16th. One of the reasons the bullpen has looked better than that middle-of-the-pack rank is the ridiculously low BABIP (batting average on balls in play) by its most prominent members.
Entering Sunday's action, Pedro Strop, Jim Johnson, Luis Ayala and Darren O'Day -- who had combined to throw nearly 60 percent of the bullpen's innings -- all had BABIPs at least 45 points below their career averages. Johnson and Strop -- who are throwing the bullpen's highest-leverage innings -- are both sporting BABIPs nearly 100 points below their career averages.
The starters haven't caught the same breaks, but the top of the rotation has been instrumental to the club's success. Jason Hammel has been a pitcher reborn since coming to Baltimore, thanks in large part to his renewed focus on his two-seam fastball. He is not only generating more grounders, but also more swings and misses than ever before, and his 8.45 strikeouts per nine innings is by far a career best. But after allowing two runs or fewer in each of his first six starts, he has allowed nine runs in his past two.
Wei-Yin Chen, who the Orioles brought over from Japan, may be facing an even tougher road to maintain his excellent start. His 6.55 K/9 is below average, and while his above-average swinging-strike percentage suggests that his K/9 may tick up, Chen may soon have a hard time as a fly ball pitcher at Camden Yards. Chen had allowed a low rate of home runs until Sunday, when he allowed two against the Washington Nationals. The home runs knocked his homers per nine back to league-average levels, and whether he can keep his HR/9 in check will be something to watch as the summer progresses.
While neither Hammel nor Chen has put together a full season of dominant pitching in the majors, Baltimore will need them to keep pitching like All-Stars, because the rest of the rotation isn't nearly as refined. Jake Arrieta's overall line looks good, as he has compiled a 3.76 FIP and an 8.30 K/9. But Arrieta has been boom or bust -- he has allowed one run or less in three outings and five runs or more in three others. In addition, his swinging-strike percentage is below average, so he may see his K/9 peter back closer to his career 6.49 mark.
Fourth starter Brian Matusz is healthy and has his velocity back, but the results are not yet there. Entering Sunday, his 1.61 strikeout-to-walk ratio was tied for 101st among 118 qualified pitchers. Fifth starter Tommy Hunter is even worse. Entering Sunday, the only starting pitchers with a FIP worse than Hunter's 5.52 mark were Clay Buchholz and Ubaldo Jimenez.
All of this is to say that the Orioles' hitters will need to keep producing runs by the barrel full if they are to stay in the scrum that is the American League East. Which, granted, they may be able to do. By just about every measure, the Orioles have a top-10 offense. The O's lead the majors with a .195 isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average), and the team's slugging percentage and wOBA both rank in the top 10 as well.
Adam Jones, in particular, is really emerging this year -- if it wasn't for Josh Hamilton, a lot more people would be talking up Jones as an MVP candidate. But they are not bulletproof here, either -- the one area in which they are vulnerable is walk-to-strikeout ratio. The club has a 0.35 BB/K that is next to last in the game. And surprisingly, noted strikeout artist Mark Reynolds has not been the biggest offender, as Robert Andino, Wilson Betemit, Chris Davis, J.J. Hardy, Nick Johnson and Jones all have worse marks than Reynolds.
The Orioles have been a good story thus far, and their plus-14 run differential shows that they haven't been a complete mirage. But they have been fortunate, particularly in one-run games. The team's pitching is more middle of the road than its 3.48 ERA would suggest. Baltimore may be in the hunt to stay, but it isn't anywhere near the second-best team in baseball.
Rumors.
Spoiler [+]
http://[h3]Figgins on the bubble?[/h3]
10:43AM ET
[h5]Chone Figgins | Mariners [/h5]
After a stint as the regular left fielder earlier this season, Chone Figgins has been reduced to a spare part for the Seattle Mariners, starting just two of the last 18 games.
It's no secret that Figgins (.180 BA) has come nowhere close to living up to the four-year, $36 million free agent contract he signed prior to the 2010 season. With the Mariners needing to clear a roster spot for catcher Miguel Olivo over the next few days, there is some speculation that it is time to cut the cord.
Larry LaRue of the News Tribune says the idea should at least be considered, even if Figgins will earn $17 million this year and next. LaRue says the Mariners have better defensive reserves for the infield and outfield and Figgins even is bypassed as a pinch runner.
Casper Wells and rookie Alex Liddi might be candidates for demotion when Olivo comes off the disabled list. Liddi had a miscue in left field Wednesday against the Rangers, but made amends with a grand slam.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Alex Liddi, Casper Wells, Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners
http://[h3]Oswalt partial to Texas?[/h3]
10:17AM ET
[h5]Roy Oswalt | Phillies [/h5]
Free agent Roy Oswalt could sign with a team soon, and there are indications he could be leaning toward a return to the Lone Star State.
Some rival executives tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney they are convinced Oswalt is going to sign with the Texas Rangers "because of his links to that team, because of the Rangers' strong postseason chances, and because of Texas' proximity to Oswalt's Mississippi home."
As for Oswalt's readiness, the initial reports on his throwing sessions with Boston and Philadelphia were good, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "It probably would take him a few weeks to get ready, but everybody's going to need pitching a month from now, so it's a good investment for down the road," a scout tells Cafardo.
Oswalt pitched for a decade in Houston before being traded to the Phillies during the 2010 season. The Rangers' incentive for landing Oswalt likely picked up this week when starter Neftali Feliz went on the 15-day DL with a right elbow strain.
Other clubs that could be legitimate contenders for Oswalt's services include the Red Sox, Cardinals and Tigers.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Roy Oswalt
http://[h3]Giants sticking with Crawford[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Brandon Crawford | Giants [/h5]
The San Francisco Giants have showed a willingness to stick with Brandon Crawford, as long as his glove continues to outshine his at-bat.
Crawford is hitting just .232, but there are growing concerns with his defense after he committed his 10th error, tops among major league shortstops, and made a bad relay throw Wednesday against the Brewers. Manager Bruce Bochy insists there are no plans to replace Crawford right now, reports Henry Schulman.
If Bochy waivers, he will have another option at shortstop when Ryan Theriot comes off the disabled list Thursday.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
http://[h3]Girardi undecided at closer[/h3]
9:28AM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
David Robertson was given first dibs at being the Yankees closer when Mariano Rivera tore his ACL. Robertson then landed on the disabled list himself with a strained right oblique, and the job might not be waiting for him when he returns, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post.
Manager Joe Girardi says he is unsure who will have the role since Rafael Soriano, who saved Tuesday's game against the Royals, also has pitched well. Robertson is eligible to return next Friday in Detroit.
Girardi never formally anointed Robertson as closer once Rivera went down, and has no desire to change that. "Let's just see where we are when [Robertson] gets back," Girardi said.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, New York Yankees
http://[h3]Selig firm about 2014 retirement[/h3]
9:20AM ET
[h5]Selig's future [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Is Bud Selig serious this time?
Selig often has changed his mind about when to retire as the commissioner of baseball, but he sounded emphatic Wednesday about his intention to step down after the 2014 season, reports Bob Wolfley of the Journal-Sentinel.
Selig spoke at the Sport and Society Conference on the campus of St. Norbert College in De Pere, Wisconsin and was asked if he saw himself staying commissioner beyond 2014. "No, no," Selig said. "If I do that, then number one I would have to convince my wife, and number two, I do want to teach."
Selig makes about $18 million per year, so he presumably has built up enough of a financial nest egg to live on a teacher's salary.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]NHL Winter Classic in LA?[/h3]
8:45AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
New Year's Day in Southern California means the Rose Bowl. Could the "Grandaddy of Them All" be sharing the stage with the NHL Winter Classic?
Dodgers President Stan Kasten tells the Los Angeles Times he plans to explore whether the Kings could play in an NHL Winter Classic game at Dodger Stadium.
Kasten, former president of the NHL Atlanta Thrashers, said technology would allow ice to remain playable for an outdoor hockey game in warm weather. With the Kings in the Stanley Cup Finals, now is as good a time as ever to make the pitch.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Los Angeles Dodgers
http://[h3]Berkman's career in jeopardy?[/h3]
8:29AM ET
[h5]Lance Berkman | Cardinals [/h5]
Lance Berkman is scheduled to have surgery Thursday morning to repair the tear in his meniscus and determine the damage done to his ACL. The Cardinals first baseman is aware that his career could hang in the balance.
"You realize you can't play forever. Certainly when you get to be my age and you suffer a significant injury it can help push you out the door," Berkman tells David Dalati of FoxSportsMidwest.com. "I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't at least considering that possibility."
Highly regarded prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31359/matt-adamsMatt Adams was called up from Triple-A Sunday when Berkman was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
First base in St. Louis thinned out even more when Matt Carpenter went on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday with a tear in his right oblique. To take Carpenter's spot on the roster the Cardinals promoted Steven Hill, adding him to the 40- and 25-man rosters. Allen Craig also will be an option once he comes off the disabled list.
- Doug Mittler
[h5]Buster Olney[/h5]
Berkman's future
Tags:
Matt Adams, Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals
10:43AM ET
[h5]Chone Figgins | Mariners [/h5]
After a stint as the regular left fielder earlier this season, Chone Figgins has been reduced to a spare part for the Seattle Mariners, starting just two of the last 18 games.
It's no secret that Figgins (.180 BA) has come nowhere close to living up to the four-year, $36 million free agent contract he signed prior to the 2010 season. With the Mariners needing to clear a roster spot for catcher Miguel Olivo over the next few days, there is some speculation that it is time to cut the cord.
Larry LaRue of the News Tribune says the idea should at least be considered, even if Figgins will earn $17 million this year and next. LaRue says the Mariners have better defensive reserves for the infield and outfield and Figgins even is bypassed as a pinch runner.
Casper Wells and rookie Alex Liddi might be candidates for demotion when Olivo comes off the disabled list. Liddi had a miscue in left field Wednesday against the Rangers, but made amends with a grand slam.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Alex Liddi, Casper Wells, Chone Figgins, Seattle Mariners
http://[h3]Oswalt partial to Texas?[/h3]
10:17AM ET
[h5]Roy Oswalt | Phillies [/h5]
Free agent Roy Oswalt could sign with a team soon, and there are indications he could be leaning toward a return to the Lone Star State.
Some rival executives tell ESPN The Magazine's Buster Olney they are convinced Oswalt is going to sign with the Texas Rangers "because of his links to that team, because of the Rangers' strong postseason chances, and because of Texas' proximity to Oswalt's Mississippi home."
As for Oswalt's readiness, the initial reports on his throwing sessions with Boston and Philadelphia were good, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. "It probably would take him a few weeks to get ready, but everybody's going to need pitching a month from now, so it's a good investment for down the road," a scout tells Cafardo.
Oswalt pitched for a decade in Houston before being traded to the Phillies during the 2010 season. The Rangers' incentive for landing Oswalt likely picked up this week when starter Neftali Feliz went on the 15-day DL with a right elbow strain.
Other clubs that could be legitimate contenders for Oswalt's services include the Red Sox, Cardinals and Tigers.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Detroit Tigers, St. Louis Cardinals, Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, Roy Oswalt
http://[h3]Giants sticking with Crawford[/h3]
9:47AM ET
[h5]Brandon Crawford | Giants [/h5]
The San Francisco Giants have showed a willingness to stick with Brandon Crawford, as long as his glove continues to outshine his at-bat.
Crawford is hitting just .232, but there are growing concerns with his defense after he committed his 10th error, tops among major league shortstops, and made a bad relay throw Wednesday against the Brewers. Manager Bruce Bochy insists there are no plans to replace Crawford right now, reports Henry Schulman.
If Bochy waivers, he will have another option at shortstop when Ryan Theriot comes off the disabled list Thursday.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
http://[h3]Girardi undecided at closer[/h3]
9:28AM ET
[h5]New York Yankees [/h5]
David Robertson was given first dibs at being the Yankees closer when Mariano Rivera tore his ACL. Robertson then landed on the disabled list himself with a strained right oblique, and the job might not be waiting for him when he returns, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post.
Manager Joe Girardi says he is unsure who will have the role since Rafael Soriano, who saved Tuesday's game against the Royals, also has pitched well. Robertson is eligible to return next Friday in Detroit.
Girardi never formally anointed Robertson as closer once Rivera went down, and has no desire to change that. "Let's just see where we are when [Robertson] gets back," Girardi said.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Rafael Soriano, David Robertson, New York Yankees
http://[h3]Selig firm about 2014 retirement[/h3]
9:20AM ET
[h5]Selig's future [/h5]
[img]http://a.espncdn.com/i/teamlogos/leagues/lrg/trans/mlb.gif[/img]
Is Bud Selig serious this time?
Selig often has changed his mind about when to retire as the commissioner of baseball, but he sounded emphatic Wednesday about his intention to step down after the 2014 season, reports Bob Wolfley of the Journal-Sentinel.
Selig spoke at the Sport and Society Conference on the campus of St. Norbert College in De Pere, Wisconsin and was asked if he saw himself staying commissioner beyond 2014. "No, no," Selig said. "If I do that, then number one I would have to convince my wife, and number two, I do want to teach."
Selig makes about $18 million per year, so he presumably has built up enough of a financial nest egg to live on a teacher's salary.
- Doug Mittler
http://[h3]NHL Winter Classic in LA?[/h3]
8:45AM ET
[h5]Los Angeles Dodgers [/h5]
New Year's Day in Southern California means the Rose Bowl. Could the "Grandaddy of Them All" be sharing the stage with the NHL Winter Classic?
Dodgers President Stan Kasten tells the Los Angeles Times he plans to explore whether the Kings could play in an NHL Winter Classic game at Dodger Stadium.
Kasten, former president of the NHL Atlanta Thrashers, said technology would allow ice to remain playable for an outdoor hockey game in warm weather. With the Kings in the Stanley Cup Finals, now is as good a time as ever to make the pitch.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Los Angeles Dodgers
http://[h3]Berkman's career in jeopardy?[/h3]
8:29AM ET
[h5]Lance Berkman | Cardinals [/h5]
Lance Berkman is scheduled to have surgery Thursday morning to repair the tear in his meniscus and determine the damage done to his ACL. The Cardinals first baseman is aware that his career could hang in the balance.
"You realize you can't play forever. Certainly when you get to be my age and you suffer a significant injury it can help push you out the door," Berkman tells David Dalati of FoxSportsMidwest.com. "I'd be lying to you if I said I wasn't at least considering that possibility."
Highly regarded prospect http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/31359/matt-adamsMatt Adams was called up from Triple-A Sunday when Berkman was placed on the 15-day disabled list.
First base in St. Louis thinned out even more when Matt Carpenter went on the 15-day disabled list Wednesday with a tear in his right oblique. To take Carpenter's spot on the roster the Cardinals promoted Steven Hill, adding him to the 40- and 25-man rosters. Allen Craig also will be an option once he comes off the disabled list.
- Doug Mittler
Berkman's future
Tags:
Matt Adams, Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals
7:59AM ET
[h5]Ryan Theriot | Giants [/h5]
The Giants are expected to active infielder Ryan Theriot from the disabled list in time for Thursday's game in Miami, according to an MLB.com report.
The Giants opened up a roster spot by optioning infielder Charlie Culberson to Triple-A Fresno. Theriot, who has been sidelined by a strained right elbow, could get some time at third base, where Joaquin Arias has been filling in for the injured Pablo Sandoval.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Ryan Theriot, San Francisco Giants
http://[h3]June 8 return for Morse?[/h3]
7:47AM ET
[h5]Michael Morse | Nationals [/h5]
With Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos sidelined, the Washington Nationals need left fielder Michael Morse back sooner rather than later. If all goes well, Morse could be back June 8 against the Red Sox, reports MLB.com's Bill Ladson.
Morse, who is on the disabled list because of a torn shoulder muscle, is expected to play in extended spring games starting Friday in Viera, Fla and then begin a rehab assignment.
The Nats have used six different left fielders this season in the absence of Morse.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Michael Morse, Washington Nationals
http://[h3]Manny's return delayed?[/h3]
7:29AM ET
[h5]Manny Ramirez | Athletics [/h5]
Manny Ramirez is eligible to play his first game for the Oakland Athletics next Wednesday, but manager Bob Melvin says the date for his return from a 50-game drug suspension isn't "locked in."
The A's had envisioned Ramirez getting about 40 plate appearances in his 10-game minor league stint, but he already missed a game last weekend with a wrist issue.
The club will have to make a roster move to make room for Ramirez. MLB.com's Jane Lee says Daric Barton could be sent to Triple-A, considering he has options left, unlike Kila Ka'aihue.
- Doug Mittler
Should owners grab Manny?
Tags:
Oakland Athletics, Manny Ramirez, Yoenis Cespedes
http://[h3]More playing time for Aoki[/h3]
7:06AM ET
[h5]Norichika Aoki | Brewers [/h5]
A three-time batting champion in Japan's Central League, Norichika Aoki is seeing increased playing time for the http://espn.go.com/mlb/team/_/name/mil/milwaukee-brewersMilwaukee Brewers' outfield. With manager Ron Roenicke experimenting with http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/5973/corey-hartCorey Hart at first base, Aoki might get even more starts in right field, says Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel.
Aoki started all three contests against the Giants, including twice in right field when Hart moved to first base with an opposing lefty on the mound. The lefty-swinging Aoki provides Roenicke with some flexibility since he hits .310 against southpaws and .289 against righthanders.
Aoki has started 10 games in May after being limited to mostly pinch-hitting duties in April.
- Doug Mittler
Tags:
Corey Hart, Norichika Aoki, Milwaukee Brewers
http://[h3]Could Dunn be trade bait?[/h3]
6:46AM ET
[h5]Adam Dunn | White Sox [/h5]
When the Chicago White Sox inked Adam Dunn to a 4-year contract prior to the 2011 season the club was clearly looking to win right away. Dunn, and the team, struggled last season, and entering 2012 it was difficult to determine whether the Sox were going all out to contend or in the middle of a bit of a rebuild. They're not out of it entering play Wednesday, but if the fade this summer, Dunn could potentially become the subject of trade rumors.
The slugger is back doing what he did for years in the National League, and that's drawing walks and hitting home runs. He's batting .243/.386/.579 for the year and if it weren't for his struggles against left-handed pitching (.174 average) those overall numbers would be even better.
The Sox sit four games back in the loss column in the sudenly mediocre American League Central, and while they are within shouting distance the club is more likely to add than subtract. If the summer wears on them and they find themselves well off the pace come July 31, Dunn could be an attractive piece for GM Kenny Williams to move to contender and add young talent.
Dunn is due $44 million total for 2012-214, and is limited to first base or DH, but there are clubs that have needs in those areas and may not mind paying Dunn to fill that role. The Los Angeles Dodgers come to mind, as do the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers. The Jays may balk at the salary, however, which is why the Cleveland Indians aren't likely to get involved in such talks.
Even the New York Yankees could show interest in Dunn, especially with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez struggling to produce in the heart of their lineup. The Milwaukee Brewers have a need at first base, but they may be in the same boat as the Indians concerning Dunn's contract. The Tigers may get Victor Martinez back late this year, which would eliminate them, and they may prefer to spend their assets to improve their pitching staff.
The Sox could choose to hang onto Dunn, too, and try and compete over the next few years, so a deal is far from probable.
- Jason A. Churchill
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- Mar 13, 2004
Bundy is gonna be a PROBLEM in a year or two...I heard rumors that he MAY be added to the roster in September.
Also, I don't expect the O's to keep this pace up. I think most people wanted them to get back to playing .500 or better baseball and get back to respectability. Buck has them on the right track.
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The Os being the Os, anything turrible could happen but barring injuries I think they'll be alright. They've won some grind it out games this season & won home & away. The only worry I have is that Chen has almost been around the league now for the first swing. Asian pitchers always do well the first go around & get rocked the second half of the season once batters have studied their tendencies. We'll see. Trying to remain hopeful...I love Buck. I swear he sounds like Billy Bob Thorton though...
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Well, that was a fun inning to watch Verlander. Hitting 102 on the gun in the 8th and striking out the side.
Insane.
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Verlander just threw probably the most dominating inning I've ever seen. 11 pitches, three strikeouts in the 8th inning. Struck out Jason Kipnis on three straight fastballs clocking in at 99, 100, and 101
then against Asdrubal Cabrera started him off with a curveball then an 102 mph fastball followed by another curve. Absolutely filthy.
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A curve that was 83 mph, at that.
What you gonna do?
I think all teams from high school to the pros need to take better care of pitchers. I was so pissed at Stasburg coming out. Everyone knew his throwing motion wasn't good but nothing was ever done about it until he got injured.
I saw a great feature on HBO. It centered on Seattle's Steve Delabar but it also showed how he was working with the ex pitching coach at USC, Tom House on improving his mechanics while throwing harder. He's created a program (along with the USC school of medicine) that protects against shoulder & elbow injuries... It was a great story...
Not so much the motion of his arm, he has a pretty fluid and repeatable delivery. It was the huge spike in the speed of his fastball, that is usually a warning sign that there may be problems with the elbow and TJS is needed. Same thing happened to Danny Duffy this year.
Speaking specifically on the Orioles, they need to better manage their young arms is how I'll put it. They really mismanaged Matusz last year and their handling of Bundy so far has been shoddy. Matusz, Arrieta, Britton and Tillman were supposed to be the future and the only one on track to be a #3 at best right now is Arrieta.
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San Francisco Giants' 3-4 hitters have a higher OPS than the Detriot Tiger's 3-4 hitters.
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A curve that was 83 mph, at that.What you gonna do?
Win the game, sweep the series... !+%* like that.
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Giancarlo Stanton
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Cards temporarily lose 1st place
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Our pitching is coming along
- 57,960
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Originally Posted by Naija Nitemare
Our pitching is coming along
It's the Mariners. Harden OWNS the Mariners.
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- Jun 12, 2006
Originally Posted by 651akathePaul
Originally Posted by Naija Nitemare
Our pitching is coming along
It's the Mariners. Harden OWNS the Mariners.
LMFAO dude you're so right
I'm trying so hard to see any bright spots this season, didn't realize we have a 3 game winning streak vs. the A's and the M's
- Status