2016 MLB thread. THE CUBS HAVE BROKEN THE CURSE! Chicago Cubs are your 2016 World Series champions

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Watched a recap of the entire 1987 season last night on MLBN just for the hell of it. Needless to say, I'm ready for baseball.
 
ooIRON MANoo said:
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
Babe Ruth? What gives?
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He was a first base coach for one season, :lol:

Trust, I know the folks in the marketing department, terrible. Their solution to everything is bobbleheads, :lol:
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I actually think I know (rather, met) someone in the Dodgers' marketing department too. I went inside the front office and was really impressed with how nice it is. I sat with her son and friends in the first deck and watched the game that Bryce Harper made his debut in. Good times :smokin
 
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ooIRON MANoo said:
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
Is there a list out of what the Dodgers bobbleheads will be? Would like to add to my small collection.
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4/24 vs. Phillies - Clayton Kershaw
5/13 vs. Marlins - Yasiel Puig
5/27 vs. Reds - Hyun-Jin Ryu
6/3 vs. White Sox- Hello Kitty Mini Bobblehead :x
6/14 vs Dbacks - Tommy Lasorda :smh:
6/26 vs. Cardinals - Fan Vote (Brian Wilson) :smh:
7/13 vs. Padres - Roy Campanella/Pee Wee Reese
7/31 vs. Braves - The Original 30 HR Club (Baker, Cey, Garvey, Smith)
8/20 vs. Padres - Zach Greinke
9/2 vs. Nationals - Magic Johnson :smh:
9/7 vs. Dbacks - AJ Ellis :smh:
9/9 vs. Padres - Babe Ruth :smh:
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would be willing to buy a Puig. Why no Kemp?
 
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
I actually think I know (rather, met) someone in the Dodgers' marketing department too. I went inside the front office and was really impressed with how nice it is. I sat with her son and friends in the first deck and watched the game that Bryce Harper made his debut in. Good times :smokin
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If I remember correctly Kemp hit a walk-off bomb that game right?
 
madj55 said:
Th3RealF0lkBlu3s said:
I actually think I know (rather, met) someone in the Dodgers' marketing department too. I went inside the front office and was really impressed with how nice it is. I sat with her son and friends in the first deck and watched the game that Bryce Harper made his debut in. Good times :smokin
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If I remember correctly Kemp hit a walk-off bomb that game right?
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That's right, watching it was nuts. Such a great game to be at.
 
Proshares said:
Top 10 prospects (NL Central).

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST


Cubs' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Javier Baez, SS (7)
2. Kris Bryant, 3B (15)
3. Jorge Soler, OF (26)
4. Albert Almora, CF (28)
5. C.J. Edwards, RHP (67)
6. A. Alcantara, 2B (71)
7. Pierce Johnson, RHP
8. Jaimer Candelario, 3B
9. corey Black, RHP
10. Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Chicago Cubs
Org rank: 4

Farm system overview

The Cubs' collection of offensive prospects is extremely impressive, with three high-impact bats at the top of the system, followed by two guys who can contribute on both sides of the ball.

Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Jorge Soler all look like stars; Baez has the explosive bat speed to be a guy who hits for average and power, and he can play somewhere in the middle infield, even if the Cubs don't have room for him there. Soler has the biggest risk, although some of that is because he missed so much of 2013 after breaking his leg; I think everyone, the Cubs included, would feel more confident if he had played a full summer and continued to show gradual improvement.

They're still light on arms; C.J. Edwards and Pierce Johnson are the only pitchers in the system I'd project as more than fifth starters, and neither looks like a potential ace or strong No. 2. That said, they did load up on pitching in the 2013 draft, and lefty Rob Zastryzny (No. 11 in the system) could grow into a third or fourth starter role, while right-handers Scott Frazier (No. 13), Tyler Skulina (No. 14), and Trey Masek are all current starters who could go either way but are now more likely to head for the pen.

Corey Black is an interesting case, built like a reliever, aggressive like one as well, but he'll at least show four pitches, two of them plus, and I would at least let him start a little longer before conceding the point. Eloy Jimenez (No.12), the 17-year-old jewel of the July 2 international signing class from last year, is all fantasy at this point, a kid with a huge, projectable frame as well as the swing to eventually have 30-35 homer power.

2014 impact

Arismendy Alcantara probably starts the year in Triple-A, but I think he's an upgrade over Darwin Barney right now, an above-average defender at second who can actually hit. Baez should make his major league debut this summer, although the position is up in the air and depends on Alcantara's arrival and whether Starlin Castro gets his head on straight.

The fallen

Mike Olt's vision problems have put his career on hold, in practical terms; if you can't see, you can't hit or field, and until he and his doctors find a solution, he won't be able to produce on the field. Arodyz Vizcaino missed his second straight year due to arm problems, and Juan Carlos Paniagua fell apart once he got past visa problems and managed to take the mound, trying too hard to guide the ball for strikes instead of just airing it out.

Sleeper

Jimenez is more likely to show up on the 2016 top 100 than the 2015 one; for next year's list, we're more likely to see Jaimer Candelario, who has been on the fringes of my top 100 for two years now. He's a mediocre defender at third, but his bat has a chance to be special -- he has a fluid swing, stays inside the ball well, and has shown doubles power to both gaps already at age 19.



Reds' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Robert Stephenson, RHP (29)
2. Billy Hamilton, CF (52)
3. Phil Ervin, OF
4. Jesser Winker, OF
5. Yorman Rodriguez, OF
6. Michael Lorenzen, RHP
7. Nick Travieso, RHP
8. Daniel Corcino, RHP
9. Chad Rogers, LHP
10. Jackson Stephens, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Org rank: 16

Farm system overview

The Reds have drafted well the past few years, buttressing a system depleted by trades, promotions and fewer prospects coming from their international scouting arm. Robert Stephenson and Billy Hamilton both have chances to become impact players, Stephenson the more likely of the two as Hamilton is going to have to show he can hit Triple-A pitching after a rough first year at the level.

Phil Ervin and Jesse Winker look like solid everyday regulars in the outfield, Ervin more if he stays in center field (which I'd bet against right now), while Yorman Rodriguez, signed for $2.5 million way back in 2008, has the highest ceiling of any position player in the system right now, and made big strides in his plate discipline in 2013.

The rest of their top 10 includes starters who have to add or change something significant to remain in that role, led by former college outfielder/closer Michael Lorenzen, who has hit 99 mph in relief but whom the Reds are trying to convert to the rotation. Chad Rogers has the best chance to stay in the rotation, a possible workhorse back-end starter with three pitches, and he also survived a shark bite in 2010, which has nothing to do with baseball, but, whoa, shark attack.

Other players of note in the system include Ben Lively (No.11), a right-hander with a fringe-average fastball but tremendous deception that helps it play up the way Tony Cingrani's fastball has; Jon Moscot (No.12), a potential back-end starter who's 90-95 with a four-pitch mix but has nothing plus; and Amir Garrett (No.13), who really needs to stop wasting his time playing basketball because it's hurting his development as a left-handed reliever.

2014 impact

Hamilton is the Reds' Opening Day center fielder as the roster stands; he's ready defensively, and his legs can make an impact, but I'm not alone in worrying about his ability to fight off hard stuff in on his hands, which is how pitchers are going to attack him at first. I wouldn't be shocked to see Rogers make the Reds' pen early this season, as he finished in Triple-A and he's hit 92-95 mph in short stints.

The fallen

Daniel Corcino's year was a huge letdown, the latest Reds prospect to struggle in Triple-A, in this case because he was trying to pitch up in the zone at 92-94 mph and getting punished for it. He did throw better in 10 relief innings in winter ball, and it's possible he's better off as a power reliever rather than a starter who's too line-drive and homer-prone. Ismael Guillon shows flashes of mid-rotation potential, but you can't walk 95 in 121 innings (and that's after walking just six in his last four starts) and expect us not to notice it.

Sleeper

Jackson Stephens is a classic find from scouting director Chris Buckley, a high school quarterback from Alabama who's blessed with a great arm, sitting 94-98, but still learning the art of pitching, like changing speeds and working with his secondary stuff.



Brewers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Tyrone Taylor, CF
2. Devin Williams, RHP
3. Nick Delmonico, 3B/1B
4. Michael Reed, OF
5. John Hellweg, RHP
6. Jimmy Nelson, RHP
7. Mitch Haniger, OF
8. Orlando Arcia, SS
9. Victor Roache, OF
10. Hunter Morris, 1B
Milwaukee Brewers
Org rank: 30


Farm system overview

The majors' weakest farm system didn't place anyone on the global top 100, and didn't have anyone particularly close. Tyrone Taylor, Nick Delmonico, and Michael Reed are solid prospects who project as average regulars if everything clicks, but don't have high ceilings.

Taylor has the broadest base of skills, a former wide receiver whose approach has been much better than expected from a two-sport guy, and he projects to stay in center. Reed can't stay in center, so he'll have to develop more power to play every day. Delmonico also needs to stay healthy for a full season, as he has missed more than 100 games over the past two years.

Devin Williams has the highest upside in the system, with a loose, easy delivery and a fastball up to 95, but he needs work on his command and secondary pitches. John Hellweg and Jimmy Nelson are future relievers. Mitch Haniger looks more like a good fourth outfielder than a regular. Victor Roache had a miserable full-season debut, hitting .248/.322/.440 at age 21 in low-A with a 26 percent strikeout rate. Orlando Arcia did nothing with the bat in 2013, but he was one of the youngest position players in any full-season league, and had missed all of 2012 due to injury. He has good instincts in the field and his ability to square the ball up enough to put it in play is good for his age and lack of experience.

David Denson (No.11) is an all-or-nothing guy, a 6-foot-4, 245-pound first baseman with big raw power, signed for $100,000 in the 15th round, whose value is all in his bat and who'll have to work to maintain his conditioning. Other names of note are hard-throwing reliever David Goforth; righty Ariel Pena, who has starter stuff and reliever command; and righty Jorge Lopez, still projectable with a good curveball, whose 5.23 ERA in 2013 was skewed by an April outing in which he allowed 8 earned runs in 1/3 of an inning.

2014 impact

Hellweg and Nelson could pitch for the major league squad this year, more likely in the bullpen though perhaps as spot starters. Hunter Morris is one of a few internal options at first base but doesn't project to hit or get on base enough to be an average regular there.

The fallen

Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley, the Brewers' two first-round picks in 2011, both had awful seasons and neither is even a potential fifth starter in the majors right now. Bradley hurt his shoulder, ending his season, the second year in a row he has been shut down with arm woes, and his stuff has never been where it was before he was drafted. Jungmann stayed healthy but walked almost as many as he struck out and has been reduced to throwing almost only fastballs.

One of their two first-rounders from 2013, catcher Clint Coulter, had to be demoted to short-season ball. In fact, the last successful first-round pick for Milwaukee was Brett Lawrie in 2008.

Sleeper

Williams has the best chance to make a big leap in 2014. Pre-draft, I compared him to Taijuan Walker at the same age. Walker had a better curveball, but the two otherwise have similarly easy velocity and loose, fluid arms.



Pirates' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Gregor Polanco, OF (13)
2. Tyler Glasnow, RHP (20)
3. Jameson Taillon, RHP (27)
4. Austin Meadows, CF (35)
5. Nick Kingham, RHP (73)
6. Alen Hanson, SS (74)
7. Josh Bell, OF (97)
8. Reese McGuire, C
9. Harold Ramirez, OF
10. Luis Heredia, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Org rank: 3


Farm system overview

The system has just started to bear fruit at the major league level, but there's more coming, with a near-future superstar in the outfield in Gregory Polanco and perhaps another further down the line in Austin Meadows, and three pitchers who project as top-three starters in a major league rotation in Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon, and Nick Kingham.

Beyond the guys who made the top 100, Reese McGuire has a very high floor as a premium defender behind the plate, with a tremendous arm and improving receiving skills. Luis Heredia is a tough one to get a feel for because he has pitched so little since signing and hasn't had much success, but he's still just 19 years old. The delivery and body aren't great, while the stuff frequently is. For comparison's sake, if he were just about to graduate from high school in Florida or California, he'd be a late first-rounder this June.

Others of note include Clayton Holmes (No.11 in the system), a big right-hander who has the stuff and the delivery to be a solid mid-rotation starter, but not the results because he doesn't pitch with the confidence or aggressiveness he should have; JaCoby Jones (No.12), a superb athlete who struggled with his swing the last two years at LSU but will play in the middle of the diamond; Jaff Decker (No.13), an on-base machine just acquired in trade from the Padres, whose main problem has been staying healthy; and Wyatt Mathisen (No.14), a catcher who missed much of last season with a partially torn labrum, but who should be back at full strength this March.

The Pirates will need to continue to produce impact players they can control for six years at sub-market prices, because of the major league team's relatively low revenue base, but this system is primed to do exactly that, with bats and pitchers coming, just a little light in the infield but strong everywhere else.

2014 impact

I expect Taillon to come up at some point in the first half of the season, perhaps once the Bucs feel enough time has passed to keep him from reaching super-two status after 2016, and Kingham isn't that far behind -- he might be closer in terms of feel and command. Decker will have a chance to win the right-field job and would be a good platoon right fielder with his OBP skills and moderate power.

The fallen

The closest you can come to a disappointment among major prospects in this system would be outfielder Barrett Barnes, their supplemental first-round pick in 2012. Ranked seventh in their system last year, Barnes hit just .268/.338/.399 in low-A as a 21-year-old major-college product, in a season limited to 46 games by injuries. He would have been bumped from their top 10 by other prospects even with a full season of better performance, though.

Sleeper

Born in Colombia, Harold Ramirez played the whole summer at age 18, hitting .285/.354/.409 in the New York-Penn League against a lot of older pitchers, showing tremendous feel for the barrel and solid plate discipline for his age and inexperience. He's a slightly above-average runner and there's a good chance he moves out of center, but he looks like a pure hitter who'll at least hit for high averages with a ton of extra-base hits, which would still profile in an outfield corner.



Cardinals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Oscar Taveras, OF (5)
2. Stephen Piscotty, OF (57)
3. Kolten Wong, 2B (91)
4. Rob Kaminsky, LHP (100)
5. Tim ****ey, LHP
6. Marco Gonzales, LHP
7. Carson Kelly, C/3B
8. Alex Reyes, RHP
9. James Ramsey, OF
10. Chris Rivera, SS/2B
St. Louis Cardinals
Org rank: 12


Farm system overview

The Cardinals continue to build while contending at the major league level, with one of the game's best systems even after promoting top prospects such as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez, and even surprising farm system products such as Allen Craig and Matt Carpenter.

Oscar Taveras is the one likely star in the system at this point, held back by an ankle injury that limited him to 46 games in Triple-A last year. Stephen Piscotty and Kolten Wong are solid everyday player prospects, while Carson Kelly tried catching in instructional league and, by all accounts, took to it extremely well, not least because he wanted to do it. James Ramsey may top out as a quality platoon outfielder, but did show more pop in the Arizona Fall League than I'd previously seen from him.

The greatest strength here is the depth of the system -- the Cardinals have continued to restock the major league club with cheap talent that is productive right out of the gate, and I see that continuing both on the pitching side and with their bench, including part-time/platoon candidates. Tim ****ey will pitch in the majors this year, a strike-throwing lefty starter with three average to slightly above-average pitches, including a fastball that will peak at 93-94. Marco Gonzalez isn't far behind, with a fringy fastball but out-pitch changeup and above-average to plus curveball, and no real projection. He's very athletic but isn't going to get much stronger or add velocity.

Arms beyond their top 10 include Sam Tuivailala (No.11 in the system), a converted infielder who is a legit 98-99 in relief and struck out nearly a third of the guys he faced last year; Cory Jones (No.14), a live-armed starter with control over command but a long history of injury; and Seth Blair (No.15), a two-pitch right-hander who lacks the command to start but could move quickly if the Cards put him in the pen.

Other bats of note include center fielder Charlie Tilson (No.12), who missed all of 2012 due to injury but had a solid return year with a good approach but needs to show more pop; left fielder Randal Grichuk (No.13), acquired in the Peter Bourjos/David Freese trade, with plus pull power and a deadly fear of breaking pitches; and outfielder Tommy Pham, a very toolsy, aggressive 25-year-old who has reached Triple-A but can't stay healthy for a full season.

2014 impact

Wong is the everyday second baseman and could be a league-average player this year. Taveras should be up at some point to take over right field, but probably has to show that his ankle is 100 percent and to perform well at Triple-A before that will happen. ****ey and Tyler Lyons are both potential call-ups when the Cards need a spot starter.

The fallen

Tyrell Jenkins was in their top 10 the past two years but shoulder problems have limited him to 200 pro innings in three-and-a-half seasons since signing, with surgery to repair the latissimus muscle in his right shoulder ending his 2013 season and possibly keeping him out into the start of 2014.

Sleeper

Alex Reyes, 19, was born in New Jersey but signed as an international free agent in the Dominican Republic, avoiding the draft entirely due to his Dominican ancestry. His stuff is electric, in the Trevor Rosenthal/Carlos Martinez mold, with a fastball that can sit in the mid-90s and a hammer breaking ball. Like many teenage arms, he needs to develop a changeup and his command is still below-average, so right now it's a reliever profile but with plenty of time for him to make himself a starter if he puts in the work.

Top 10 prospects (NL East).

AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST
Braves' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Sims, RHP (40)
2. C. Bethancourt, C (90)
3. Jose Peraza, SS (99)
4. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP
5. Wes Parsons, RHP
6. Jason Hursh, RHP
7. Victor Caratini, C/3B
8. J.R. Graham, RHP
9. Tommy La Stella, 2B
10. Ian Thomas, LHP

Atlanta Braves
Org rank: 22

Farm system overview

Atlanta's system remains a real weakness, mostly because the club has used so much of what was on the farm a few years ago to bolster the major league roster (which, as a result, is very young as well as talented), and in part because recent drafts have been less productive.

Lucas Sims, Atlanta's 2012 first-rounder, isn't in that category, as his stuff ticked up across the board in a huge debut season that jumped him into the overall top 50. The Braves' 2013 draft was less promising, as they took likely reliever Jason Hursh in the first round, but second-rounder Victor Caratini could make a big jump if the team's effort to convert him to catching pays off. Two of the Braves' top 10 picks were signed as undrafted (passed over) free agents, Wes Parsons and Ian Thomas, and their Latin program is responsible for three of their top four guys.

2014 impact

Christian Bethancourt's glove and arm are more than ready for the majors; it's about his approach at the plate now, and just tightening up the finer points of his defense. Tommy La Stella could see a lot of time at second base; he's a fringe regular but may be a better option than Dan Uggla at this point.

The fallen

J.R. Graham, a top-100 prospect a year ago, blew out his shoulder and made just eight starts on the year. He was already a risk to have to go to the pen due to his lack of size -- he's listed at 5-foot-10 -- and that just became much more likely, assuming his stuff comes most of the way back after the decision to rehab his injury rather than undergo major surgery.

Sleeper

Parsons is a projectable right-hander, 6-foot-5, 190 pounds, with good sink on an average fastball, an above-average slider and plus control, with three walks in his past 44 innings this year in low-A.


Marlins' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Andrew Heaney, LHP (34)
2. Colin Moran, 3B (55)
3. Jake Marisnick, CF (84)
4. Justin Nicolino, LHP (93)
5. Trevor Williams, RHP
6. Anthony DeScalfani,RHP
7. Brian Flynn, LHP
8. Jose Urena, RHP
9. J.T. Realmuto, C
10. Avery Romero, 2B
Miami Marlins
Org rank: 19

Farm system overview

It was something of a flat year within the Marlins' system, as no one but Andrew Heaney took a big step forward, but several guys made modest progress, while the team added three pretty strong talents in the draft in Colin Moran, Trevor Williams and reliever Colby Suggs, who could move very quickly through the system now that the groin strain that wrecked his spring at Arkansas is fully behind him.

The system isn't deep at all, although some of that is the result of the Marlins' aggressiveness in bringing young players with ability to the majors as soon as they might be ready, which led to five of Miami's top 10 prospects from last year losing their eligibility, including Christian Yelich and Jose Fernandez.

2014 impact

Jake Marisnick will lose eligibility early this season, and Brian Flynn would be my pick right now for the Marlins' fifth starter spot over guys like Tom Koehler and Brad Hand. I wouldn't be shocked to see Anthony Desclafani surface in the second half; he has the velocity and control to start, but isn't very physical and may not have the stamina for 190-200 innings a year. He'd be very effective out of the pen if that's his future role.

The fallen

Austin Brice was one of two sleepers I named last year, along with Jose Urena, but Brice's velocity went backward this year and he walked nearly a man an inning; he's been passed by several better arms in the meantime. Kolby Copeland, Miami's third-round pick a year ago, refused to take a drug test and is now effectively out of baseball, although he's still under the Marlins' control if he wants to return.

Sleeper

Jarlin Garcia is a strike-throwing right-hander, 6-foot-2, 170 pounds, with a three-pitch mix already and some room to add velocity. He's No. 11 in the system, just ahead of Domingo German, another right-hander who doesn't have the third pitch but has an above-average curveball and good angle on his fastball.


Mets' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. N. Syndergaard, RHP (24)
2. Travis d'Arnaud, C (36)
3. Dominic Smith, 1B (37)
4. Rafael Montero, RHP (60)
5. Brandon Nimmo, OF (92)
6. Kevin Plawecki, C
7. Dilson Herrera, 2B
8. Wilmer Flores, IF
9. Cesar Puello, OF
10. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Org rank: 6

Farm system overview

This system has come a very long way in a short amount of time, thanks to solid drafts under scouting director Tommy Tanous and his predecessor Chad MacDonald, and to several very productive trades that brought in three of the Mets' top seven prospects.

Top prospect Noah Syndergaard saw his breaking ball improve from below-average last year to solid-average or better by summer's end; Travis d'Arnaud took time off from the disabled list to make his major league debut; Cesar Puello finally put some production behind his tools before serving a suspension for his involvement in Biogenesis.

The Mets' next few prospects after this top 10 -- Gavin Cecchini (No. 11), Gabriel Ynoa (No. 12), Jacob deGrom (No. 13), Michael Fulmer (No. 14) and Domingo Tapia (No. 15), to give you an idea -- are all pretty tightly bunched together, with a lot of back-end starters and potential fringe-to-average regulars in the group.

2014 impact

Both Rafael Montero and Syndergaard will likely see significant time in the majors, with Montero getting the call first because he's further along, and managing his service time is less important than managing Syndergaard's. Wilmer Flores could stick as a backup at third, second and even left field or first base, if the Mets don't mind him getting somewhat irregular at-bats. Puello is a dark horse to surface later in the year, especially if Curtis Granderson or Chris Young gets hurt (again).

The fallen

Nobody really crashed and burned this year in the Mets' system; the worst drop might be Cecchini, their first-rounder in 2012 and No. 5 prospect last year, now No. 11 and projected by many scouts as a fringe regular or utility guy because his bat looked light in Brooklyn last year.

Sleeper

I could pick any of a number of those control-fiend arms, but shortstop Amed Rosario is the most exciting prospect of the Mets' second tier (after their top 10 guys). He is a tool shed at shortstop, with a 70-grade arm and 60 raw power that's going to become more in time, and he's already showing a good feel for the zone at his age, improving his recognition of breaking stuff last summer and also showing good power out to right-center.

A native of the Dominican Republic, Rosario signed for $1.75 million in 2012 and skipped the Dominican Summer League and Gulf Coast League entirely, instead playing as the Appalachian League's youngest position player. He's a ways off, maybe more of a top-50 candidate for 2016, but is the system's most exciting prospect to dream on.


Phillies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. J.P. Crawford, SS (46)
2. Maikel Franco, 3B/1B (63)
3. Jesse Biddle, LHP (77)
4. Kelly Dugan, RF
5. Severino Gonzalez, RHP
6. Cord Sandberg, OF
7. Roman Quinn, SS
8. Andrew Knapp, C
9. Carlos Tocci, CF
10. Deivi Grullon, C
Philadelphia Phillies
Org rank: 14

Farm system overview

The Phillies always go for ceiling in the draft and in international scouting, and there's a lot of potential impact here, especially at the lower levels, led by their first-round pick J.P. Crawford, a true shortstop with All-Star upside due to his potential with the bat.

Severino Gonzalez is their best right-handed arm, not a guy who'll ever challenge for the top 50 or 75 spots on the Top 100, but a command guy with two solid-average pitches now in a fastball and cutter and a chance for four average offerings with more development time. Kelly Dugan has a chance to be a solid-average regular if he can tighten up his plate discipline, which fell apart after a midseason promotion to Double-A.

Not listed in the top 10: Aaron Altherr (No. 11), a 6-foot-5 outfielder who's always been power-before-hit but showed a better approach this year and more willingness to go the other way; and Jake Sweaney (No. 12), a two-sport guy in high school who's raw but has the athleticism and arm strength to be an impact bat at catcher.

It's been a bit of a rough offseason for the Phillies' farm, though, as Andrew Knapp needed Tommy John surgery and could miss part of 2014, while Roman Quinn will likely be out until June or July after rupturing his Achilles tendon while working out.

2014 impact

Jesse Biddle probably makes his major league debut this summer, boosting the back of the rotation. Ethan Martin is a reliever all the way for me, and should spend most of 2014 on the big league roster. Kenny Giles, who can sit 98-99 in short stints, could surface this year if he can stay healthy.

The fallen

Adam Morgan was the Phillies' No. 1 prospect last year, No. 92 overall, but his shoulder blew up and he's had surgery to try to repair the damage. Shane Watson, who missed their top 10 last year but was one of their highest draft picks in 2012, also recently had shoulder surgery; both pitchers will miss most or all of 2014. Catcher Tommy Joseph was No. 5 in their system last year, but a severe concussion (as if there were such a thing as a "mild" brain trauma) has his future as a catcher in doubt.

Sleeper

Deivi Grullon has an 80-grade arm behind the plate and has a chance to be an elite defender all around, developing very quickly on the side of the ball, but has a ways to go with the bat, right now showing more power than feel to hit. His floor looks very high due to his arm and glove and his aptitude for learning the more cerebral parts of catching.


Nationals' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Lucas Giolito, RHP (21)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (65)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (83)
4. Nate Karns, RHP
5. Sammy Solis, LHP
6. Pedro Severino, C
7. Jefry Rodriguez, RHP
8. Jake Johansen, RHP
9. Michael Taylor, CF
10. Steven Souza, OF
Washington Nationals
Org rank: 18

Farm system overview

Similar to last year's top 10, the Nationals' current list boasts a strong front five with a bit of a drop-off to the rest of the system.

Lucas Giolito has ace upside once he builds up the durability to handle a full workload; he's just a few months back from Tommy John surgery and rehab and is all potential right now. A.J. Cole re-established himself as a starting pitching candidate, bouncing back from a poor year in exile with the A's. Both Nate Karns and Sammy Solis could be someone's starters, although there's no room at the inn in Washington right now.

Jefry Rodriguez is very intriguing as a converted shortstop who's up to 98 with a power curveball, but as you might expect has even further to go than your typical rookie-ball pitcher because he's new to the craft. The Nationals' first pick in 2013, Jake Johansen, was a little underwhelming as their top selection (they didn't have a first-round pick), a power arm who almost certainly projects as a reliever down the line.

Beyond the top 10, they did get solid pro debuts from right-hander Austin Voth (No. 11), who was 90-94 with a solid-average slider, and third baseman Drew Ward (No. 12), a very physical kid who may end up at first base but has the potential for impact power.

2014 impact

Karns had a cup of coffee last year and could help the Nats again this year as a spot starter or in a long relief role, which might be ideal for him as he needs work on turning a lineup over more than anything else. Outfielder Eury Perez would be a good bench candidate for someone, even if it's not here.

The fallen

I think the Matt Purke ship has probably sailed at this point; the overhyped, overpaid lefty threw just 90 innings this year, all in Class A, and looked like a future reliever between his low slot and average-ish velocity. He's now about 14 months removed from shoulder surgery, much of the blame for which lies not with him, but with the TCU coaching staff that worked him hard his freshman year and continued to roll him out there his sophomore year when he was obviously ailing.

Sleeper

Pedro Severino was an All-Star in the Sally League this year, primarily because of his defense -- he's a superb pitch-framer with a 70 or 80 arm, with the rare combination of strength and flexibility that's ideal for the position. At the plate, he's very balanced with a clean, efficient swing; there's probably not a lot of future power there, but he should make plenty of contact and hit for average. The defense is the calling card here, enough to get him to the big leagues at a young age while the bat develops.

Top 10 prospects (NL West).

AL EAST | AL CENTRAL | AL WEST

NL EAST | NL CENTRAL | NL WEST


Diamondbacks' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Archie Bradley, RHP (9)
2. Braden Shipley, RHP (25)
3. Chris Owings, SS (72)
4. Stryker Trahan, C
5. Aaron Blair, RHP
6. Brandon Drury, 3B/1B
7. Jake Lamb, 3B
8. Jose Martinez, RHP
9. Felipe Perez, RHP
10. Sergio Alcantara, SS
Arizona Diamondbacks
Org rank: 15


Farm system overview

Of the D-backs' top 10 prospects two years ago, three are now on the major league roster, led by Pat Corbin, while three others have been dispatched in trades over the past year-plus. A couple of solid drafts the past two years have helped restock the system, but at this point, the scouting staff can't add talent as quickly as Kevin Towers is dealing it away.

Fortunately, they've got a future ace at the top of the system in Archie Bradley, and I love Braden Shipley's chances to become a solid No. 2 behind him thanks to his athleticism and relative inexperience on the mound. Stryker Trahan has come a long way defensively since signing, especially in throwing out runners, and had a solid second pro season despite losing his mother in April after a long battle with cancer.

Brandon Drury was the big surprise in the system this year; widely seen (including by me) as a throw-in to the Justin Upton trade, he led the low Class A Midwest League in doubles with 11 more than anyone else, finished seventh in slugging, and showed a cerebral approach at the plate that improved as the year went on. He may be playable at third base, but is still a work in progress there. Jake Lamb had the bigger rate stats and is more likely to stay at third, but missed two months last year with a sprained right wrist. Sergio Alcantara was just 16 in rookie ball last summer, showing great plate discipline and good instincts at short with a plus arm, a possible everyday shortstop if he can get a good bit stronger over the next couple of years.

Just missing their top 10: shortstop Jose Munoz (No. 11 in the system), likely to move to third base with a good feel to hit and potential average power; lefty Daniel Gibson (No. 12), 90-94 mph on his fastball with two fringy-to-average breaking balls, starting now after he relieved at the University of Florida; outfielder Justin Williams (No. 13), who has huge raw power but is pretty crude at the plate and in the field; and right-hander Jimmy Sherfy (No. 14), a former college closer with plus stuff and a bad delivery, someone the Snakes should move quickly to capitalize on his arm while they can.

2014 impact

Chris Owings could unseat Didi Gregorius as the everyday shortstop in Phoenix, while Bradley should make his debut at some point this summer. Right-hander Mike Stites came over in the Ian Kennedy trade. He has been 96-98 and could challenge for a bullpen role this spring, as could right-hander Jake Barrett, whose fastball/slider combo is filthy when he's healthy, which isn't all that often.

The fallen

No one. If you show the slightest sign of weakness, Towers will not hesitate to put you on the trade market.

Sleeper

Everyone who sees right-hander Jose Martinez raves about him. He has a somewhat slight build for a starter, similar to St. Louis right-hander Carlos Martinez, but his fastball is 94-96 mph with a curveball that runs from average to plus. His stuff is ahead of his control, though, as he walked 25 in 38 innings last summer for short-season Yakima.




Rockies' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Jonathan Gray, RHP (12)
2. Eddie Butler, RHP (17)
3. David Dahl, OF (47)
4. Rosell Herrera, SS (54)
5. Raimel Tapia, OF
6. Tom Muprhy, C
7. Trevor Story, SS
8. Kyle Parker, 1B
9. Ryan McMahon, 3B
10. Tyler Matzek, LHP
Colorado Rockies
Org rank: 8

Farm system overview

The Rockies' system looks a whole lot better than it has ever looked with these two potential aces at the top of the list: Jonathan Gray, the third overall pick in last year's draft, and Eddie Butler, who took a big step forward after he was their supplemental first-round pick in 2012. Both guys made a lot of progress with their changeups last summer, and neither is that far away from contributing in Coors Field.

David Dahl missed almost all of last year due to injury, but looked fine in instructs and should be ready to go in March. I still like the tools and feel for hitting, given his age, and think he'll develop into an above-average regular. Rosell Herrera repeated the low-A Sally League in a great hitter's park, so it would help to see him carry it over to high-A this year. He's athletic and can play a little out of control, but the tools are exciting. Tom Murphy has improved his receiving to solid-average now, along with a 60 arm, and has above-average raw power. But he was way too old for the Sally League last year and I hope he'll start 2014 in Double-A now that he'll be 23 years old. Tyler Matzek has never lived up to expectations that made him the 11th overall pick in 2009, but at least he has the fastball/breaking-ball combination to be an effective left-handed reliever.

The Rockies have a lot of depth in arms beyond their top 10 names, led by Antonio Senzatela, a Venezuelan right-hander who just turned 19 last week. The 11th-best prospect in the system, he has been up to 95 and will flash a plus curveball and a plus changeup, needing consistency with the secondary stuff and to work on command and on how to use his stuff more effectively.

Lefty Tyler Anderson (No. 12) should still be a No. 4 or No. 5 starter, but his past two years have been wrecked by back and elbow problems. I still like right-hander Ryan Warner (No. 13) as a long-term prospect, still projectable at 6-foot-7 with present command and plane, needing now to grow into his frame. They also have a slew of relief candidates, such as Scott Oberg, up to 95 with a swing-and-miss curveball; Raul Fernandez, who reaches the upper 90s and punched out 36 percent of the guys he faced in Asheville last year, but needs to stay healthy; and lefty Sam Moll, their third-round pick last year, a starter now but I think a dominant left-handed reliever who'll show a 60-grade fastball and plus slider with an average changeup in short relief.

2014 impact

The Rockies may not wish to rush Gray or Butler, but I don't think either guy is that far off, with Butler closer in experience and also in stuff. Rule 5 draft selection Tommy Kahnle might stick as a 12th man in their pen.

The fallen

Tim Wheeler's 33-homer season in Double-A Tulsa in 2011 seemed like an anomaly at the time, and since reaching Triple-A Colorado Springs he has been both hurt and unproductive, with seven homers in more than 850 plate appearances there across two seasons. Matzek hasn't been able to command his fastball enough to start, and he actually walked more right-handers (63) than he struck out (60) last year, which is kind of a problem.

Sleeper

Outfielder Raimel Tapia is a gifted young hitter, boasting phenomenal hand-eye coordination, confidence at the plate for someone so young, and an ability to adjust to changing speeds. At 6-2, he's wiry and a little projectable still, playing center now but potentially ending up a corner where his bat would still play.

The Rockies don't have a complex-league team -- hello, Mr. Monfort, it's a great investment for a tiny amount of money -- so Tapia had to jump from the Dominican Summer League to the advanced rookie-level Pioneer League, and all he did was finish second in the circuit in total bases and eighth in OPS. He could put up some big numbers in Asheville, which is a great hitters' park, if the Rockies push him there this spring.



Dodgers' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Julio Urias, LHP (14)
2. Corey Seager, 3B (18)
3. Joc Pederson, OF (41)
4. Zach Lee, RHP (75)
5. Chris Anderson, RHP (96)
6. Jesmuel Valentin, SS
7. Tom Windle, LHP
8. Ross Stripling, RHP
9. Alexander Guerrero, 2B
10. Kyle Farmer, C
Los Angeles Dodgers
Org rank: 11

Farm system overview

This is the best front five the Dodgers have had since the Matt Kemp/Andre Ethier/Russell Martin era, led by a pair of teenagers, Julio Urias and Corey Seager. The Dodgers' drafts, other than the cash-strapped 2011 year, have been successful at getting talent into the system, with Corey Seager, Zach Lee, and Chris Anderson all first-rounders, Jesmuel Valentin in the sandwich round, and Tom Windle in the second, while Joc Pederson was a big bonus signing in the 11th round.

Valentin is a premium defender whose bat is still an open question. Windle looked better after signing than he had in the spring at Minnesota, picking up strength as the weather warmed up, eventually hitting 95 mph in instructional league with a plus slider at 84 mph -- way above what I saw from him back in March.

Alexander Guerrero may hit, but he's got a stiff body and reports on his defense from winter ball were poor. Kyle Farmer, a shortstop at the University of Georgia, converted to catching after signing and picked it up quickly, with good energy and plenty of arm.

Also of note: Lefty Chris Reed (No. 11), a clear reliever but ready to pitch in the majors whenever he's needed; Scott Barlow (No. 12) and Zach Bird (No. 13), discussed below as sleepers; and converted infielder Pedro Baez (No. 15), now throwing hard on the mound but still working on the art of pitching as a reliever in Double-A. Right fielder Joey Curletta (No. 14) hit well in rookie-level Ogden at age 19; he's got a thick, strong build and is pretty short to the ball, with plus power in BP but a more contact-oriented approach during games.

2014 impact

There's hardly any room at the inn in Los Angeles for rookies. Guerrero might be the second baseman if the Dodgers can live with his below-average glove, and some of their relief prospects, especially Chris Withrow and Reed, will log major league innings this year.

The fallen

For all the hype James Baldwin Jr. had due to his plus speed and his bloodlines, he hasn't performed: Repeating low-A at age 21, he hit .238/.323/.388 and struck out in 36 percent of his at-bats.

Sleeper

Last year's sleeper, Bird, struggled with command and control in low-A, but was a little better after a demotion to the Pioneer League. He still has a great arm and a chance for three average or better pitches, but his youth (he turned 19 in July) and inexperience (he's from a high school in rural Mississippi) showed. Also, keep an eye on Barlow, back this year after missing 2012 due to Tommy John surgery, still waiting for the last of his velocity to return -- if it does at all.



Padres' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Austin Hedges, C (33)
2. Matt Wisler, RHP (39)
3. Max Fried, LHP (48)
4. Hunter Renfroe, RF
5. Casey Kelly, RHP
6. Dustin Peterson, SS
7. Joe Ross, RHP
8. Zach Eflin, RHP
9. Andy Lockett, RHP
10. Rymer Liriano, RF
San Diego Padres
Org rank: 9


Farm system overview

The Padres' system remains deep and ready to supply the major league club with cheap starting pitching and the occasional bat, led by Austin Hedges, one of the best defensive catchers in baseball. He's more power-before-hit at this point, but with a good idea at the plate and high contact rates that give hope he'll keep his OBP respectable while saving a zillion runs with his glove and arm.

Casey Kelly and Rymer Liriano both missed the year due to Tommy John surgery. It was worse for Liriano, who desperately needed those at-bats to continue to work on recognizing off-speed stuff. Right-handers Joe Ross, Zach Eflin and Walker Weickel (No. 13) all flash plus stuff but need to work on command and turning lineups over three times. Eflin is the most advanced on the mound, sinking the fastball and going to a plus changeup for swings and misses, throwing a slider now that projects as average.

Shortstop Jace Peterson (No. 11) has the speed and actions to play there or at second, and he has performed well over the past two years. But he has been old for his leagues both times, staying in high-A all of 2013 even though there was no one blocking him in Double-A.

Right-hander Jesse Hahn (No. 12) just came over in a trade with Tampa Bay that also netted Alex Torres. he shows top-of-the-rotation stuff but has no history at all of staying healthy in that role, and it's more likely he's a premium reliever if his arm holds up. Josh Van Meter (No. 14) projects as an average defender at short. He can hit a little but will have to show more pop as he moves up the ladder.

2014 impact

Matt Wisler is close to being ready for the majors, and by midyear will likely be one of the three or four best starters in the organization. The Padres' current rotation leads off with three injury-prone guys in Andrew Cashner, Josh Johnson and Tyson Ross, so there will be opportunities for Wisler and for Kelly when he returns to action.

The fallen

Both Kelly and Liriano fell off the top 100 due to elbow surgery, and neither had performed up to expectations (or the level of their physical tools) prior to their injuries.

Sleeper

Andy Lockett missed all of 2013 (outside of three short relief outings in the complex league) with a blister issue that just wouldn't clear up; when that's not an issue, he'll run his fastball up to 94 with sink and shows a plus change. His arm works well and his slider was better than ever in instructs last year, although that won't really count until he can throw it against live hitters.



Giants' Top 10
Player, POS (Top 100 rank)
1. Kyle Crick, RHP (69)
2. Andrew Susac, C
3. Edwin Escobar, LHP
4. Clayton Blackburn, RHP
5. Adalberto Mejia, RHP
6. Christian Arroyo, SS
7. Joan Gregorio, RHP
8. Mac Williamson, RF
9. Ty Blach, LHP
10. Gary Brown, CF
San Francisco Giants
Org rank: 25


Farm system overview

The Giants have plundered their own system for trades and for a few big league jobs during their run of contention over the past five years, so the system remains thin, with starting pitching the one area of strength but none of it close to the majors.

Kyle Crick has power stuff, two plus pitches, but poor command and a need for a third weapon. Andrew Susac gets far too little attention within the industry, in my opinion. He's a solid-average regular, a catcher who receives fine, throws well and has above-average power. Edwin Escobar has the upside of the three arms I have in the No. 3, 4 and 5 spots on the list, with the above-average fastball/changeup combo, whereas Clayton Blackburn has the command and control, looking like a good back-end starter but without much ceiling.

Christian Arroyo won't stay at shortstop, but I see an offensive-minded second baseman with good feel to hit. He'll have to find more power to profile as a quality regular there, or become a more patient hitter so he can rack up high OBP. Mac Williamson can run, throw and hit for power, but the knock is his bat speed, which may not handle better velocity so well when he reaches Double- or Triple-A. Ty Blach had a tremendous pro debut in 2013, showing back-of-the-rotation stuff and superlative control, but his history of shoulder trouble makes him more likely to end up in a relief role.

Their rookie-level Arizona League team had a few arms worth keeping in the back of your mind in lefty Luis Ysla and righty Keury Mella; Mella's younger and the ball seems to explode out of his hand, so he just overmatched hitters in the complex league. Joe Panik remains in the system as a potential utility infielder.

2014 impact

Reliever Heath Hembree has been on the cusp of the majors for two years but has had trouble staying healthy, finally debuting in September and throwing well enough that he'll probably stick with the team this April.

The fallen

Gary Brown does it all wrong for a guy with plus speed and range in center. He doesn't play hard, he doesn't take well to instruction, and he doesn't make adjustments at the plate. At this point, he's probably a fourth or fifth outfielder, unless he's willing to alter his swing so he can make better contact.

Sleeper

Joan Gregorio is a 6-7 right-hander whose fastball is up to 96 mph with a hard mid-80s slider and is just now starting to fill out physically. His arm works well, and his main issue going forward is getting more on top of his fastball so he can use his height to generate plane and keep the ball out of the air.
Click to expand...
 
Tracy McGrady is working out with Roger Clemens in Texas. He throws in the 90s and thinks he can play minor league baseball at the least.
 
Mark Berkman from Fox 26 has several tweets about Scipio Spinks working with t-Mac and saying he can play.

I took lessons from Spinks for 10'ish years and he would always eat at my parents restaurant. He's a no bull kinda guy, so I believe him about t-Mac lol
 
CincoSeisDos said:
I hate this paperless season ticket **** :stoneface:

How the **** am I supposed to sell games I don't go to?
Click to expand...

As pissed off as people are about this, Dodger ownership right now can't do no wrong and they know it. Ads in the outfield, new sections, "renovating" Dodger Stadium, etc.

Dodger fans right now:

700


I'm curious to see how long it will last.
 
All I'm I'm doing is reading top prospects lists and Carlos Rodon scouting reports. Man I need these kids to get called up to Houston soon. This 100 loss seasons are getting old :lol:
 
The Astros are going to be much improved this year. They're still gonna suck, but not near as bad lol

They've added some quality arms in the pen. Even when they had leads last year, then pen would just blow it. Smh.
 
Astros no longer the worst.

The Houston Astros have not been very good the past three seasons. They haven't cracked 60 wins, and have generally played an unwatchable brand of baseball while doing so.
This year should be different. Not only are some of their prospects about to graduate to the majors, but they have acquired some depth at the major league level. They won't be the worst team in baseball, and might not even be one of the three worst.

Addition by subtraction
During the past two seasons, the major league roster experienced quite a bit of turnover as the team experimented with different players. Some of those experiments have worked out, and some did not or have not. The opportunities afforded to Brett Wallace, for example, have largely gone for naught. J.D. Martinez and Marwin Gonzalez also have failed to make the most of their opportunities. Brandon Barnes has a nice glove, but it's hard to maintain a sub-.300 on-base percentage and be a valuable major league player.

Trimming the fat
These eight players, who were well below replacement-level in 2013, are now gone or will see a diminished role.

PLAYER 2013 WAR
Brandon Barnes 1.0
Brett Wallace 0.0
Trevor Crowe -0.1
Rick Ankiel -0.3
Marwin Gonzalez -0.4
Carlos Pena -0.4
Ronny Cedeno -0.7
J.D. Martinez -1.1
TOTAL -4.0
Of course, it wasn't just kids who stepped into the batter's box last season, but the veterans the team had also failed to produce much of value. Neither Carlos Pena nor Ronny Cedeno slugged better than .350. Rick Ankiel produced just a .231 OBP in his short stint (25 games) in Houston. And once-upon-a-time top-100 prospect Trevor Crowe couldn't post a .300 OBP or slugging percentage.

These eight made more than one-third of the plate appearances by Astros position players last season, and combined for a woeful .227/.283/.357 line. That was good -- or bad, actually -- for a .640 OPS. The rest of the Astros weren't exactly a bunch of All-Stars, but their collective .694 OPS was significantly better.

The good news for Houston fans is that those eight players are either ancient history, or should be phased out by the end of the season. The last man standing likely will be Wallace, but he eventually will be replaced by top prospect Jonathan Singleton. Keith Law ranked Singleton as the No. 78 prospect in all of baseball and No. 5 in Houston's system, and he may have ranked even higher had he not missed nearly half of last season thanks to a suspension for marijuana use.

Another prospect who should be ready for a gig at some point this season is George Springer. Ranked 19th overall by Law, Springer is a center fielder who may not get to play center field right away thanks to Dexter Fowler's arrival. However, there is no one blocking him in left or right field, so when he is ready for prime time, Fowler's presence shouldn't hold him back.

Fowler himself adds to the stable of league-average position players the team will suit up in 2014. With Jason Castro at catcher, Jose Altuve at second base, Chris Carter at designated hitter and Fowler in center field, Houston projects to have four league-average position players. In addition, Matt Dominguez does enough things well to be decent at third base.

Add Singleton and Springer to those five guys, and you have the potential for 2-WAR players at nearly every position. Contrast that with the first eight players, who combined for minus-4 WAR last season (see table), and see the significant improvement. The pitching will still be abysmal, at least for now, but Houston will at least be able to hold its own in the batter's box.

The worst of the rest
That's more than we can say for the Miami Marlins. It is no secret that Giancarlo Stanton is an exceptional hitter. Steamer only projects three hitters -- Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout and Joey Votto -- to post a better wOBA than Stanton this coming season. However, the players around him can be classified as dreck. No other position player on the roster projects to be worth more than 2.0 WAR either by Steamer or ZiPS.

Retreads such as like Rafael Furcal, Ty Wigginton and Casey McGehee abound, and because the Marlins graduated several of their prospects last season, there aren't a lot of reinforcements coming. Jake Marisnick should contribute this year, but his playing time will come at the expense of other young, somewhat talented players in Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna. In other words, when he graduates, it won't have the same positive effect on their lineup like Singleton and Springer will have in Houston.

The pitching is similarly built. Jose Fernandez is projected to be a star, but the rest of the rotation is filled with guys who will be league average at best. But the lack of depth up and down the roster, and the lack of talent among the group of starters, make the Marlins the front-runner to be the worst team in baseball. And if something should once again happen to Stanton -- who has played in only 74 percent of all possible games the past two years due to various injuries -- Miami will really struggle to put runs on the board.

The Marlins won't be the only ones who struggle to post crooked numbers. The Chicago White Sox, Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies all had trouble putting runs on the board a year ago, and likely will face the same challenges this year.

The White Sox and Phillies should be able to squeak out enough 3-2, 4-3 sorts of wins thanks to their starting rotations, but the same cannot be said for the Twins and Chicago Cubs. Even after all of the attention the Twins paid to their starting rotation earlier in the offseason, FanGraphs' depth charts still peg them as one of the three worst rotations in baseball. The Astros' pitching will likely be similarly poor, but they are not going to have the same difficulties hitting the ball.

In fact, according to FanGraphs' depth charts, the Marlins, White Sox, Cubs and Phillies all project to produce fewer WAR than the Astros, with the Marlins at least 5 WAR behind every other club.

Last season, the Astros had a bunch of very poor hitters clogging their lineup. This season, they will be improved, as most of those players will be history, and players such as Fowler, Singleton and Springer will join the lineup. This is going to make it a lot easier for the Astros to stay in games, and the improved offense should help them avoid being baseball's worst team.

GM buzz: Latest on free agents.

With pitchers and catchers due to report to spring training in a couple of weeks, the rumor mill continues to churn because many quality free agents are still on the market, including: Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, A.J. Burnett, Bronson Arroyo, Paul Maholm, Stephen Drew and Nelson Cruz.

Why are so many players still on the market? Well, the agents and union have their theory, while the clubs have a different view. Multiple agents representing free agents who are still on the market told me over the weekend that they, as well as the players' union, are concerned that social networking and the media’s advanced coverage of the sport are hurting the market value of their clients.

Some even went so far as to suggest that teams are possibly violating the clause in the collective bargaining agreement that prevents clubs from influencing a free agent's market value by relaying to the media the offers they’ve made to free agents, and whether clubs plan to make an offer or decline to make an offer. Certainly media coverage of baseball’s offseason is the best it’s ever been, but these conclusions have very little merit when you look at the enormous contracts that were given out this offseason to the likes of Robinson Cano, Clayton Kershaw and Masahiro Tanaka, among others.

On the other hand, general managers and assistant GMs have a different opinion. The majority believe the main reason so many free agents remain on the market is that all have some type of negative issue surrounding them, whether that's injury history, a performance-enhancing drug suspension, career inconsistency or draft-pick compensation. GMs also point to the agents’ inflated expectations in terms of years and dollars considering the risks associated with these players.

With that in mind, here’s the latest scuttlebutt from the front offices around the league.

Where will they land?

• David Price is staying in Tampa. Rays GM Andrew Friedman has listened to every club that had a trade proposal for Price and came away knowing his best decision is to keep him and try to win this year.

The Rays know that trading Price at the deadline probably won’t be an option because the team will be in a pennant race, so it will be next offseason when he’s finally traded. The Cubs, Braves, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and Dodgers are the early favorites.

• The Cleveland Indians find it hard to envision a scenario where Jimenez returns to Cleveland. Factoring in the value of the draft pick they are planning to get if he signs elsewhere, his value would have to drop so low that too many other teams would be motivated to sign him before they would.

The Indians are comfortable with a trio of young starters (Carlos Carrasco, Josh Tomlin and Trevor Bauer) competing for the final rotation spot behind Justin Masterson, Danny Salazar, Corey Kluber and Zach McAllister. Jimenez likely lands in Toronto.

• The Reds have not made an offer to Arroyo and don’t plan to. Instead they are preparing for a rotation of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake and rookie Tony Cingrani, who has spent a lot of time this offseason improving his slider, which can be a difference-maker for this high-ceiling left-hander.

Arroyo prefers the East Coast, but he might have to head west for a spot with either the Los Angeles Angels or Arizona Diamondbacks.

• The Royals have not completely ruled out Ervin Santana, but it is highly doubtful that he'll return to Kansas City. The Royals believe if they stay healthy, their rotation will be fine, and they look forward to the competition between Danny Duffy, Yordano Ventura and Luke Hochevar for the final rotation spot. As with Jimenez, Toronto is a likely landing spot for Santana.

Based on my conversations with front-office executives, here are where most of the other free agents should likely land:

• Nelson Cruz: Seattle Mariners
• Stephen Drew: Boston Red Sox (according to one source, Drew has received a two-year offer from Boston)
• A.J. Burnett: Baltimore Orioles, Philadelphia Phillies or Pittsburgh Pirates
• Kendrys Morales: Morales has the best chance of being this year’s version of Kyle Lohse, who didn’t sign last year until late March.

• According to league sources, the Los Angeles Dodgers are working to add an infielder (rather than a starting pitcher) as their top priority and hope to get something done in the next 48 hours. It appears they won’t be bidding on any of the remaining high-cost starting pitchers unless one of them is willing to take a short-term deal, as Dan Haren was willing to do with the Dodgers earlier this offseason.

• Max Scherzer and Jon Lester are the two most likely impending free-agent starters who could sign extensions by Opening Day. Even though Scherzer is represented by Scott Boras, who prefers to take his clients to free agency, it appears Scherzer prefers to remain loyal to the Tigers -- if they’re willing to pay him close to his market value of seven years, $196 million.

Tigers President Dave Dombrowski has a long history of doing deals with Boras, and the moves Dombrowski has made this offseason to reduce payroll give him enough room to get this deal done. Likewise, Lester has made it clear he wants to stay in Boston and is willing to take fewer years and dollars to get it done as long as the Sox treat him fairly (and most executives think they will). If Scherzer and Lester re-sign with their current clubs, that will leave Justin Masterson and Homer Bailey as the most sought after free-agent pitchers next fall.

• Andrew Cashner might go to an arbitration hearing over a $125,000 differential, which is ridiculous. The Braves' Jason Heyward is in a similar situation, as he and the Braves are just $300,00 apart.

The Braves are among five teams -- along with the Blue Jays, Marlins, Rays and White Sox -- that regularly employ the "file and trial" method of arbitration. This is when a team tells agents that if the arbitration-eligible players are not signed by the time players and clubs exchange salary figures, then the team will take the case to arbitration and not negotiate anymore.

This philosophy worked well for years and encouraged signings because of the hard deadline. However, it has since become an antiquated policy because in most cases the differential is relatively small compared to the quickly escalating salaries across the sport. Going to war over a few hundred thousand dollars doesn't make sense in a world of $100 million payrolls.

• The Orioles have approximately $15 million to spend, but can anyone pass their physical exam? Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin -- who both had contract agreements with Baltimore fall apart after their physicals -- should be a warning to all interested free agents. The Orioles and Mariners remain interested in Cruz and Morales.

• The Angels might end up with Chris Capuano or Paul Maholm instead of Arroyo, which would be a mistake.

• The Yankees have just one or two more minor moves left, with the bullpen the priority. The Mets are also looking for bullpen arms with little to spend.

• The Nationals have been in discussions with the Rays for catcher Jose Lobaton, as they look for a backup for Wilson Ramos.

'Contract year' has a whole new meaning.

Draft-pick compensation was never an issue for Robinson Cano, Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo or Brian McCann. The loss of a draft pick didn’t discourage the Mets from signing Curtis Granderson, but probably only because their first-round pick is protected, meaning they only had to give up a second-rounder instead.

But it has been more than a month since any free agent who turned down a qualifying offer has signed, with five remaining on the table -- Ubaldo Jimenez, Ervin Santana, Nelson Cruz, Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales.

The players scheduled to hit the market next fall can draw an important lesson from this group: Don’t get caught in the "Dead Zone."

If you’re traded during the season, as Matt Garza was last winter, then your team can’t extend a qualifying offer, and you avoid draft-pick purgatory. If you have a great season, as Choo did, then you shift out of the Dead Zone.

But if you are a good veteran who has a solid season -- but not a great season -- well, then you might get stuck.

Consider the players who could be free agents next fall. Unless Max Scherzer has a major setback through injury, he almost certainly moved himself out of the Dead Zone with his dominant, Cy Young winning performance in 2013. If he hits the market next fall, he'll have big-market teams bidding on him without concern about the draft pick.

On the other hand, there is the case of Justin Masterson. Barring injury, the Indians right-hander almost certainly will receive a qualifying offer even if he doesn't have another All-Star season. And if Masterson -- who is not close to working out an extension -- is dominant again, he will move out of the Dead Zone. But if he merely has a good performance, with an ERA in the range of 3.50 to 4.50, that qualifying offer could affect his marketability the way it has for Jimenez, his former teammate. (Masterson could be a trade candidate, and Paul Hoynes deals with the question of what they could get in return here.)

Similarly, Chase Headley has a lot at stake this year. If he hits in 2014 the way he did in 2012, when he had an .875 OPS and finished fifth in the MVP race, he'll get great offers next winter, as one of the few great third basemen available. But if he's more like he was in 2013, when he had a .747 OPS, then the Padres -- an organization that must feed on drafting and development -- may well extend a qualifying offer that could drag down Headley's free agency.

Other players who need to play well to avoid the Dead Zone next winter:

David Ortiz: Here's a reason why the Red Sox don't really have to negotiate with Ortiz. If he has a great season, they can give him a qualifying offer and all but end any chance another team would even think about signing him, at age 39, because they'd have to give up a draft pick for a player on a short-term deal. Keep in mind: This is not a good time to be a free agent viewed as a DH. Ask Kendrys Morales.

Asdrubal Cabrera: He is coming off a terrible 2013 season and will be 29 next fall. If he has a great year, the fact that he is a switch-hitter and has played multiple positions probably would mean that teams would view 2013 as an aberration. If he has an average year (or worse) ... that'll be a problem.

James Shields: He will turn 33 next winter, the same age that Kyle Lohse was in 2012, right before he became the poster boy for the Dead Zone.

Jed Lowrie: Remember, the Athletics will shed Jim Johnson's salary next winter, so they might be able to give Lowrie a qualifying offer if he has a good year.

Hanley Ramirez: L.A. is talking about an extension with Ramirez, but if he doesn't sign and has a great season, he'll move outside of the Dead Zone as a high-impact infielder. Ramirez played like a superstar last year, but he had a .741 OPS across 2011-12, and if he reverts to his pre-Dodgers form, he could have a problem on the market.

Brett Gardner: If he has a good season, the Yankees -- with their financial clout -- will offer him arbitration.

Around the league

• The Blue Jays appear to hold the commanding position in the free-agent pitching market that remains, to the degree that Toronto is like a beer vendor inside the Super Bowl site.

If anybody wanted something to drink at MetLife Stadium, they had to deal with the vendors' terms. Similarly, Toronto can just sit back and wait for one of them to agree to its terms. The Blue Jays need a starting pitcher and are willing to pay, and because there are so many free-agent starters available, one of them will need Toronto, whether it's Santana or Jimenez or A.J. Burnett.

• The battle between the Cubs and rooftop owners shifted to the radio.

• Some teams had significant concerns about whether Matt Garza would be at a heightened risk for an elbow injury, and the Brewers worked to protect themselves with a fifth-year vesting option.

By the way: The wide perception within the industry is that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio was the driving force behind this deal, rather than the team’s baseball operations department, much in the same way that Attanasio pushed for the Kyle Lohse deal last spring.

• Chris Davis says he’d like to know more about the extension that was offered.

• Sources say the pressure to win more games has been ramped up markedly within the Astros' organization, after three consecutive seasons of at least 106 losses. Most statistical systems designed to predict performance usually don't generate numbers in the extremes -- 100-plus wins or 100-plus losses -- and so some of the early sabermetric projections that have the Astros winning close to 70 games may be no more accurate than similar projections made last spring (including a few within the Houston organization).

But rival evaluators believe the Astros will be better this year, through the maturation of their young players, such as Jonathan Singleton and George Springer, and money spent on veterans, and have a legitimate shot at avoiding 100 losses and perhaps climbing a rung in their division. The fact that every team in their division has seemingly improved this winter could be a problem, however.

The Mariners signed Cano and may add more help before the start of spring training. The Angels have had a good offseason, plugging rotation holes and improving their defense. The Rangers signed Choo and traded for Prince Fielder. Oakland is merely the two-time defending champion and stacked its bullpen.

Houston will have the No. 1 overall pick for the third consecutive year in 2014. If the Astros lose 106 games or more games again, they would match the '62-65 Amazin' Mets as the only team in history to lose so much for so long.

Meanwhile: The Astros are working to get back on TV. Jim Crane says he would find a comfortable place for Nolan Ryan within the Astros organization.

Dings and dents

1. Yet another Texas Rangers player has been hurt this offseason, as Gerry Fraley writes.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. Ian Kinsler rejected a trade to Toronto before being dealt to Detroit.

2. The questions about David Ortiz are not an issue of respect, writes Scott Lauber.

3. The Rays are still dangling Jose Lobaton to interested teams.

4. Kenley Jansen is not concerned about being the Dodgers' last arbitration case.

The battle for jobs

1. There will be a lot of pitchers battling for spots in the Nationals' camp.

AL East

• The Jays' Paul Beeston said the other day that baseball should be played on grass.

• The Rays' focus is on depth, writes Marc Topkin.

AL Central

• The Tigers' payroll is expected to go up in 2014, in spite of the Fielder trade.

• Mike Moustakas has dropped some weight.

NL Central

• Bernie Miklasz takes a look at the division.

• A.J. Burnett is a risk, and Travis Sawchik considers how much of a risk he is.

NL West

• Matt Kemp doesn’t intend to rush back, writes Dylan Hernandez.

• Madison Bumgarner deserves the Opening Day start, writes John Shea.

Cubs new manager will connect quickly.

Rick Renteria dreams in two languages: Spanish and English. This is not unusual for folks who know more than one language. But when he speaks in his sleep loud enough to wake up his wife, there’s one common denominator. He’s talking about baseball.

Renteria is the new manager of the Chicago Cubs, bearing a reputation for having a personality that pushes players. “His personality is a big driver,” said Josh Byrnes, general manager of the San Diego Padres, for who Renteria worked as a coach before being hired by Chicago. “He’s definitely got an infectious personality.”

But Renteria’s ability to speak two languages fluently has been viewed by potential employers as a major attribute, and he is thought to be especially good at connecting with young players, partly because of his understanding of language.

“The best managers connect to all players,” said Byrnes.

Renteria’s parents had moved from Mexico to California, and Salvador Renteria had gone to night school to learn English. “He thought we should be able to speak the language of the country we lived in,” said Renteria, who has four brothers. Their mother, Angela, preferred to speak Spanish, perhaps out of a concern about how her English sounded, and so Renteria grew up in a household in which both languages were spoken regularly, with his father making a point of speaking English with their children.

As Rick Renteria got into baseball, he began to understand the differences in how the languages are used, how different phrases are rooted in different cultures. He reads and writes in both Spanish and English, and he has found himself articulating an idea in Spanish, he said, only to be corrected by player saying that a particular word or phrase might be more exact.

“Sometimes, you say something in Spanish, and you can see from the expression of the player that what you just said might be a little off,” Renteria said. “And they’ll say, ‘We say it this way. Quite frankly, I’m still trying to grasp it.”

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AP Photo/Andrew A. Nelles
Shortstop Starlin Castro is just one of many talented young Cubs players of Latin descent.
Renteria has worked to learn the idioms that tend to be tied to various countries, so that he can have the best possible chance to convey a thought to a player from Cuba, from Venezuela or any other country. “You want to make sure that everybody feels involved,” Renteria said.

The Cubs, like most organizations, have players from all over the world, but most of their best young players -- those who they must rely on in the club’s rebuilding -- are from places where Spanish is the primary language.

Outfielder Jorge Soler defected from Cuba. Shortstop Javier Baez grew up in Puerto Rico and was the Cubs’ first pick in the 2011 draft. Second baseman Arismendy Alcantara is from the Dominican Republic -- and so is Starlin Castro. The Cubs’ incumbent shortstop is coming off a frustrating season, and there’s hope that Renteria’s daily mien will help him get his career back on course.

It will all start with communication -- through an understanding of language -- that Renteria works at constantly. “It’s an on-going process,” he said.

Around the league

• Jeremy Hellickson, part of the Rays’ rotation, had elbow surgery.
From Roger Mooney’s piece:

Hellickson said he threw his first bullpen session on Jan. 15 and said everything felt fine.

“Then I got on the mound three days later and I couldn't even straighten out my arm. It just kind of locked up,” he said. “I threw about 10, 15 pitches in that bullpen. Came away and it didn't feel good at all, not comfortable.”

The problem was loose bodies in his elbow that were removed Jan. 29 during arthroscopic surgery performed by Dr. Koco Eaton, the Rays’ orthopedic surgeon.

As a result, Hellickson is expected to miss the first six-to-eight weeks of the regular season.

“I'm absolutely looking forward to getting back out there this year,” Hellickson said. “I guess a lot of people were doubting me toward the end of last year, so I was motivated to get back out there and do what I know I can do. It definitely (stinks). It's frustrating to have to go through this and hopefully it's just a month, month-and-a-half. I'm just going to rehab, work hard and get out there as soon as possible.”


• Right-handers Jake Odorizzi, who appeared in seven games for the Rays last season with four starts, and Alex Colome, who made one start for the Rays, are the leading candidates to fill Hellickson's spot in the rotation.

• The Diamondbacks announced extensions for general manager Kevin Towers and manager Kirk Gibson.

• The Braves have three whopper arbitration hearings, and they are set to begin on Feb. 11.

• David Ortiz sent a message to media haters.

• Derek Jeter was back on the field.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. The Mets signed Kyle Farnsworth.

2. Doug Fister worked out a deal with the Nationals.

3. The Orioles have made an offer to a pitcher from Korea. So have the Rangers.

4. The Astros signed Jerome Williams.

5. The Rockies finalized some minor-league deals.

6. The Rangers will bring a prodigy to spring training, writes Evan Grant.

Dings and dents

1. A Rangers catcher avoided serious injury.

NL East

• The Mets are looking to clear up the Ike Davis situation quickly.

• The Mets can bring him into camp, evaluate the progress of his swing through many at-bats, and if it looks like he’s back to where he was last year, they could always release him in the second week of March and pay him only a quarter of the $3.5 million he is set to make for the 2014 season. Given his past success, it’s worth that one last look to determine whether they believe he will bounce back.

• Here is an examination of the Nats’ payroll.

• Denard Span is feeling upbeat after a good finish last year.

• The Braves believe in their core.

NL West

• Sergio Romo says he could have handled last season better.

• Michael Morse says he’s not afraid of AT&T Park.

AL East

• The Red Sox have depth concerns in a couple of spots, writes Tim Britton.

• David Ross is fired up.

AL Central

• Trevor Plouffe is holding down third base, for now.

• Bryan Holaday is going to back up Alex Avila.

• Avila could be poised for a comeback, writes Kurt Mensching.

• Tom Gage asks: Who is the ace of the Tigers?

• The Royals’ lineup falls into place naturally, says Ned Yost. Totally agree.

AL West

• Ryan Divish asks: Is Mike Zunino ready to take over the full-time catching duties?

I have no idea whether he can or not, but while the Mariners have been in the news a lot this winter, some rival evaluators have said they have significant questions about whether Zunino will ascend as a player as he ages. Those evaluators believe that Zunino will have to be extremely diligent about his body and fitness to give himself the best possible chance because they have doubts about his raw skills.

• The Mariners could have a powerful addition to their lineup.

Toughest lineup quandaries in MLB.

When Joe Torre managed, he jotted down lineups in his time away from the park, mulling over various possibilities, internally debating certain combinations.

In other words: He was like a lot of baseball fans and reporters, who like to think through different lineup quandaries, especially in the cold of winter.

Around baseball, there are interesting lineup quandaries.

For the defending champion Red Sox: Who hits leadoff?

Boston’s leadoff hitters ranked first in on-base percentage last season and third in runs scored, but the guy primarily responsible for that is gone. So now John Farrell has to decide who will replace Jacoby Ellsbury in the No. 1 spot in his batting order.

He’s got a few imperfect candidates such as Dustin Pedroia, who actually has done some of his worst work when he’s hit leadoff, or Jackie Bradley, who doesn’t have a lot of experience, or maybe Xander Bogaerts, who may ultimately be needed to hit in the middle of the Boston order.

But the Red Sox are likely to open the year with Bradley at or near the bottom of their lineup to help ease his transition into the big leagues. They’ll probably use a combination of hitters in the leadoff spot -- Daniel Nava against right-handed pitchers, given his high OBP (.411 versus right-handers in 2013), and against lefties, maybe Shane Victorino (.861 OPS versus lefties in ’13) or even Jonny Gomes (.795 versus lefties in ’13).

Detroit Tigers: Who bats fifth?

The Tigers dealt Prince Fielder and should have more speed, better defense and more roster flexibility with Rajai Davis, Jose Iglesias, Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler.

But they may lack some thump in the middle of their batting order. Miguel Cabrera will presumably hit third and Victor Martinez fourth -- but who hits fifth? Torii Hunter could be a candidate, but he again thrived in the No. 2 spot, posting a .805 OPS there last season. So could the No. 5 hitter be Alex Avila against right-handers? Kinsler? Andy Dirks?

Tigers manager Brad Ausmus could choose to go with a hot hitter in that spot, or maybe just read the matchups from day-to-day.

St. Louis Cardinals: Who hits second?

Bernie Miklasz wrote about this recently, presenting the interesting puzzle that faces Mike Matheny. Tony La Russa began the Cardinals’ history of using the No. 2 spot in such an effective manner, usually with a really good left-handed hitter -- and the Cardinals are predominantly right-handed, with Allen Craig, Matt Holliday, Yadier Molina and Jhonny Peralta.

From Bernie’s piece:

Of course, there is the new shortstop, Jhonny Peralta. But he's made only 36 plate appearances as a No. 2 hitter in his career. And he isn't a good base runner. To cite an advanced metric, Peralta is about a minus-17 in Base Running Runs (BRR) over the past six years according to Baseball Prospectus. Ugh.

I wouldn't be surprised to see manager Mike Matheny use Peralta as the No. 2 hitter. Peralta bats right-handed, which would prevent having two left-handed hitters at the very top of the lineup. (Which is only a potential problem against [left-handed] pitchers.)

I also wouldn't be surprised to see Matheny try Bourjos as the leadoff man, which would move Carpenter to the No. 2 spot. General Manager John Mozeliak doesn't believe it's a good idea to bat Bourjos leadoff, but the manager makes out the lineup. And the manager wants to implement more speed.

Ultimately? If Carpenter stays in the No. 1 spot, as he should, then I believe we'll see Wong or Taveras picking up a lot of plate appearances at No. 2 at some point during the 2014 season.

Texas Rangers: Is Prince Fielder’s best spot in the three-hole?

Ron Washington has already said this is where Fielder will hit, and in some respects, that construction could make sense because Washington could go left-right-left-right at the top of his order, with Shin-Soo Choo hitting leadoff and Adrian Beltre batting cleanup.

But Fielder has usually hit cleanup in his career because he’s played with others -- Ryan Braun and Cabrera -- who fit better in the No. 3 spot, and because he’s not really a classic No. 3 hitter given his strikeout totals. But Fielder has a career OBP of .389, and he and Choo may constantly create opportunities for Beltre and those who follow.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: Where should Mike Trout hit?

Wherever he bats, he’ll be the most dynamic hitter in the game with his power and speed combination. But this choice is really more about the other hitters in the Angels’ lineup than it is about Trout. Josh Hamilton really struggled for a lot of last season, but was much better after he was moved down in the lineup. Albert Pujols appears to be ready to go for 2014, and even if he’s not the same caliber of hitter that he once was, he’ll still reach base a lot.

Trout batted second in most games and hit a lot in the No. 3 hole, as well. If I were in Mike Scioscia’s shoes, I’d be going into spring training thinking about Kole Calhoun as a candidate to hit leadoff after his solid showing last season, and then go with Trout in the No. 2 hole with Pujols at No. 3 and Hamilton at No. 5 or No. 6, with Raul Ibanez hitting fourth or sixth against right-handers, depending on where Hamilton will feel most comfortable. The lower half of the Angels’ lineup could look like this:

2B -- Howie Kendrick

3B -- David Freese

C -- Chris Iannetta

SS -- Erick Aybar

New York Yankees: Where does Brett Gardner hit?

In many ways, he is a perfect No. 2 hitter behind Jacoby Ellsbury because he is historically a good OBP guy (.352 for his career), he’ll have extended at-bats (4.23 pitches per plate appearance last season, sixth most in the AL) and give Ellsbury a chance to run. He and Ellsbury can pressure opposing pitchers with their speed. When Ellsbury reaches second, Gardner has the ability to bunt for a hit and, at the very least, advance the runner.

In a vacuum, using Gardner in the No. 2 hole would be a no-brainer for Yankees manager Joe Girardi. But there is the matter of the incumbent, a player who ranks No. 10 all-time in hits and led the majors in hits two seasons ago, Derek Jeter, who missed almost all of last season because of his ankle trouble.

It figures that Girardi will start Jeter in the No. 2 spot in the lineup at the outset of 2014, to give him a shot to show he can hit in the way that he did in 2012. Jeter has earned that opportunity through his Hall of Fame career

But if Jeter doesn’t hit in April and Gardner is performing well early, Girardi should make the change.

Los Angeles Dodgers: What do you do with Carl Crawford?

Once again, the Dodgers have a lineup with a lot of interesting parts that don’t really fit well together. Andre Ethier might be the best fit in the No. 2 spot, but the same could be said for Hanley Ramirez. Yasiel Puig is dynamic and you could make a case for him hitting just about anywhere in the lineup, including third, but then what would you do with Adrian Gonzalez? He has a history of driving in runs, but has seen his walk total steadily drop from 119 in 2009 to 47 last season.

Crawford probably presents the greatest puzzle for Don Mattingly, though, because his speed would seemingly make him a candidate to hit at the top of the order. But Crawford has 38 stolen bases over the last three seasons and had a .329 on-base percentage last year. He has power, but really isn’t a power hitter.

Crawford hit leadoff in most of his starts last season, and probably will do the same in 2014.

Seattle Mariners: Who do you put around Robinson Cano?

The Mariners’ No. 3 hitters ranked 28th in OPS last season, and you’d have to figure that Cano will bat in that spot and solve that problem. What, then, is the best way to take advantage of his presence? Who should hit second, and who should hit fourth? (And yes, we know there is almost no statistical evidence that one hitter has an impact on the hitter who precedes him, but we also know that almost all pitchers, catchers and managers say they are constantly making choices based on who is on base and who is on deck.)

Kyle Seager is arguably the Mariners’ best returning hitter from last season. He fared better batting second or fourth and struggled in the No. 3 spot. Should Seager hit in front of Cano, or might Cano have a chance to see more pitches to hit if Seager hits behind him? If Seager bats second, then who bats cleanup? Corey Hart, who missed all of last season? Logan Morrison? Justin Smoak? Would Hart be better in the No. 2 spot, seeing more fastballs because Cano is hitting behind him, with Seager batting cleanup?

If the Mariners sign Nelson Cruz, then this probably will be settled with Seager batting second, Cano third and Cruz in the No. 4 hole.

Cleveland Indians: Where should Asdrubal Cabrera hit?

Cabrera had a poor season last year with an OPS of .700. After he was greatly disappointed by his own play in the Indians’ wild-card loss, Cabrera seemed to drive into the offseason on a mission to be better in 2014. He’s got a lot at stake this year, given his impending free agency, and is said to be in excellent condition and fully prepared for the start of spring training.

If Cabrera is in launch mode, Terry Francona could have some enviable choices. He could hit Michael Bourn in the leadoff spot, followed by Cabrera (a switch-hitter who had a .792 OPS in 2011), Jason Kipnis at No. 3 and Carlos Santana in the cleanup spot. Or Nick Swisher could hit in the No. 2 hole again-- he had 246 at-bats there last season, with a .337 OBP -- with Cabrera doing damage in the No. 5 or No. 6 spot.

It bears repeating: The Indians had one of baseball’s highest-scoring offenses last season despite the fact that a number of their hitters either had mediocre or subpar seasons. Cleveland’s offense could take a step forward this season, and if that happens, Cabrera figures to be a big reason for the improvement.

For the readers: What would you do with some of these lineup quandaries?

• Among some of the teams that have had internal conversations about Ervin Santana and Stephen Drew, medical issues have affected interest about the possible length of offers. There is concern about Santana’s elbow and about Drew’s hips.

Santana could be drifting into a difficult place for free agents. Because he is tied to draft-pick compensation, teams that might normally offer him a good one-year or two-year deal might be reluctant to give up a pick for a player on a contract of that length. On the other hand, the medical concerns and draft-pick comp issue might also prevent teams from thinking about anything more than a three-year deal.

• If you are in the shoes of the Royals or the Indians, there is some psychology to consider before re-signing Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, respectively. Think about the situation that would be in place if circumstances drove Santana back to Kansas City on a one-year deal: Santana would know that if he had a good year in 2014, the Royals would probably give him another qualifying offer, which again would tamp down the interest in him as a second-tier free agent -- and if he had a poor year, he would really be in trouble when he returned to the free-agent market next fall. The carrot that usually dangles in front of free agents really wouldn't be in place for either Santana or Jimenez if they returned to their former teams on a one-year deal.

• Draft pick compensation could cut ties between the Indians and Jimenez, writes Paul Hoynes.

• Chris Capuano had been looking for a two-year deal, but in the last week, that ask has been reduced to a one-year deal, sources say. Dave Cameron has noted that Capuano could represent good value -- and some team analysts believe this, as well.

• As recently as a week ago, the request for Bronson Arroyo was for a three-year deal.

• Alexander Guerrero says second base and shortstop are completely different positions, as Mark Saxon writes.

• Some teams that have evaluated Nelson Cruz view him essentially as a DH in the making, because of the regression they've seen in his defense, reflected in fangraphs.com metrics. Cruz, 33, ranked among the worst outfielders in UZR/150 last season, and there has been a drift in his year-by-year rating in that category. It’s an imprecise statistic and sometimes completely at odds with the eye tests of scouts and coaches, but the trend in the numbers is clear apparent.

Cruz’s UZR/150 by year
2006 -- 13.9

2007 -- 7.7

2008 -- 12.3

2009 -- 9.3

2010 -- 12.8

2011 -- -7.9

2012 -- -3.3

2013 -- -6.5

The Mariners very much need a right-handed hitter to balance their lineup, and Cruz could do that and help to back Robinson Cano, but on the other hand, Seattle is already stacked with DH-type first base/corner-outfield candidates: Corey Hart, Justin Smoak, Logan Morrison and Jesus Montero.

• Buster Posey has put on 10 pounds this winter. The Giants have reaped the benefits of a long offseason.

Moves, deals and decisions

1. A senator is helping the Yankees speed up the paperwork for Masahiro Tanaka, writes Anthony McCarron.

2. Jason Hammel signed with the Cubs. Some teams that looked into him are concerned he is at a higher risk for an elbow injury, given his ulnar nerve last summer.

3. James Shields is open to a longer stay in Kansas City.

4. The Red Sox signed Rich Hill.

5. Alex Avila settled his arbitration case with the Tigers.

6. The Rangers are taking a shot at Daniel Bard.

7. Reed Johnson signed with the Marlins.

8. The Padres signed Tony Sipp.

Dings and dents

1. Justin Verlander should be ready for the start of the regular season.

2. Manny Machado has been cleared for some activities.

3. Jesse Crain is set to resume throwing.

The Battle For Jobs

1. Steve Johnson is ready to compete for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation.

AL East

• The Orioles have work to do.

AL Central

• Casey Crosby could be used out of the Tigers’ bullpen.

AL West

• Michael Young exits as a Ranger. He is over 2011, but not over it, as Richard Durrett writes.

• Josh Hamilton honored Young.

NL East

• Chris Johnson is trying to build on 2013, writes Carroll Rogers.

• The Braves’ young core is set to get expensive, writes Mark Bradley.

NL West

• Here are some Diamondbacks story lines.

• For Tim Lincecum, San Francisco feels like home, writes Ann Killion. From her piece:

Lincecum is maturing on and off the field. Last season, mostly thanks to Chad Gaudin's influence, he finally learned how to use the computer analytics that have long been available to him. He said it gave him more confidence going into each start. He plans to continue his new routine, even though Gaudin is now in Philadelphia.

Lincecum also is excited to tap into the knowledge base of new teammate Tim Hudson (who didn't make Friday's event due to terrible weather in the South). Lincecum met Hudson at the All-Star Game in 2010.

"We were both sitting out in the bullpen not pitching," Lincecum said. "He's a smaller guy who's probably been asked the same questions I have throughout my career, but he keeps pushing back."
Lincecum has a question for Hudson.

"How do you throw a slider?" he said.

Off the field, Lincecum continued working with the trainers he saw last offseason, focusing on improving strength and flexibility. He took his first trip to Europe, visiting Amsterdam and London with friends and their significant others. He sold his downtown Seattle condo and bought a house in the Madison Valley neighborhood, south of the University of Washington, with a yard that's better for his two dogs than a high-rise patio.


• Yasiel Puig is making a quick recovery, writes Bill Plaschke.

Finding the next A.J. Burnett.

With A.J. Burnett deciding not only to return to play in 2014 but to open himself up to bids from teams other than the Pittsburgh Pirates, the market for free-agent pitchers has changed yet again. Burnett might be a bit older than guys like Ervin Santana or Ubaldo Jimenez, but he's also not going to ask for a long-term contract. Teams wanting to minimize their overall commitments can pursue Burnett as an upgrade without having to offer up a three- or four-year deal.
Of course, it wasn't so long ago that there was no demand for Burnett. After a couple of miserable seasons in New York -- if you judge a pitcher by ERA, anyway -- the Yankees just wanted to be done with Burnett, and paid the Pirates to take him off their hands. Pittsburgh assumed just $13 million of the $33 million Burnett had remaining on his contract, and he proceeded to give them two excellent years for bargain prices.

So instead of bidding up an aging Burnett who has re-established his market value, why not look for the next A.J. Burnett, a pitcher at the low point of his value with a contract that could be assumed in lieu of signing any of the free agents on the market?

Here are three options for pitchers who might have a Burnett-like career rejuvenation still left in them.


Ryan Dempster, RHP | Boston Red Sox
Contract: One year, $13.25 million remaining

Dempster's first year in Boston didn't go so well, as he posted his highest walk rate since 2007 and the highest home run rate of his entire career. That's not a great combination, and Dempster ended up losing his spot in the Red Sox rotation after the team acquired Jake Peavy at the trade deadline. With spring training just a few weeks away, Dempster is on the outside looking in, and his main role with the Red Sox is to provide depth in case one of the starting five get hurt.

However, there are plenty of reasons to think that he can still help a team that doesn't have Boston's rotation depth. His stuff didn't seem to decline at all, as his velocity held steady and batters made contact on just 77 percent of swings against him, right in line with his days as a quality pitcher in Chicago. If he can get the walks in line -- he walked 4.15 per nine in 2013, up from 2.71 in 2012 -- normal regression should fix his home run problem, and the strikeout rate should allow him to return to being a quality starting pitcher.

The Red Sox might enjoy the depth he provides, but $13 million is a high price for a backup starter, and any team who would take his contract off their books would probably not have to give up much to get him. With a decent chance for a rebound and only a single-year commitment, Dempster could easily be a nifty acquisition for a team that would rather not pay free-agent prices.


Josh Beckett, RHP | Los Angeles Dodgers
Contract: One year, $15.75 million remaining

While Beckett is currently penciled in to the No. 5 spot in the Dodgers' rotation, he certainly isn't guaranteed a spot, as the team's pursuit of Masahiro Tanaka showed. Even without Tanaka, there have been talks that the Dodgers could pursue a free-agent starter such as Bronson Arroyo, and shedding Beckett's contract would likely encourage them to make a run at one of the starters remaining on the market.

For a team not interested in making a multiyear commitment to a pitcher like Arroyo, however, Beckett could be an interesting one-year option. He missed nearly all of the 2013 season with a groin injury, but the good news is that his arm seemed to be in decent shape when he was on the mound. Hitters made contact on only 76 percent of their swings against him last year, rivaling the numbers he put up back in his glory days in Miami. While it seems like Beckett has been around forever, he'll be only 34 next year, and his peripheral numbers don't support the idea that he's lost his ability to pitch at the big league level.

He might not be an ace anymore, but if he can stay healthy enough to throw 160-180 innings, Beckett could easily be an above-average starting pitcher. If a team can get the Dodgers to kick in some cash to help facilitate Beckett's exit, landing him on a one-year deal could be a nice little upgrade for a team looking for a rotation boost.


John Danks, LHP | Chicago White Sox
Contract: Two years, $28.5 million remaining

The Pale Hose are a team in transition, and GM Rick Hahn made several good moves this winter to help set up the franchise for future success. However, they're unlikely to be contenders in 2014 -- and maybe not in 2015, either.

While Danks is still young enough -- he's going to be 29 this year -- to figure into the White Sox's long-term plans, he's more valuable to a contender for the next few years, and the White Sox probably wouldn't mind getting a chance to reallocate some of his money to fill out the rest of their roster with lower-cost players.

Though Danks didn't show the same stuff or strikeout ability as he did before shoulder surgery sidelined him in 2012, he did post the lowest walk rate of his career (4.6 percent), seemingly acknowledging that he'd have to find new ways to succeed with a reduced repertoire.

Danks is still young enough to reinvent himself as a command-oriented innings eater, and while $28 million for a back-end starter is no bargain, a team that could convince the White Sox to eat some of that money in order to facilitate a trade could end up with a better option than paying any of the remaining free-agent starters who would take a two-year deal.
 
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