Is Josh Hamilton’s Plate Discipline Improving?
Buster Posey Making Strong Case For NL MVP.
After brutal June and July performances, Josh Hamilton has performed well in the first few weeks of August, hitting .320/.382/.580 in 55 trips to the plate. According to both Hamilton and his coaches, the improvement is the direct result of his willingness to finally make adjustments in terms of which pitches to swing at. After months of hacking away at pitches well out of the strike zone, he’s finally learned his lesson.
“I’m just making my mind up that I’m going to try to focus better on taking more pitches and getting in better hitter’s counts,” Hamilton said. “You see the difference. My third at-bat, I struck out. He didn’t throw me a strike. I asked the umpire, ‘Did he throw any strikes?’ He said, ‘No.’ That was the difference, being patient and getting in good hitter’s counts and knowing that if they’re pitching it there, you can hit it instead of trying to make something happen. Just take your base and score runs.”
He’s definitely saying the right things, and his recent performance is a dramatic improvement. So, is Hamilton really becoming more selective?
Judge for yourself.
Month PA O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact%
April 96 42% 83% 57% 56% 82% 70%
May 111 44% 82% 58% 53% 81% 67%
June 107 39% 80% 56% 41% 75% 60%
July 91 44% 85% 60% 48% 77% 64%
August 55 39% 84% 57% 66% 77% 72%
His O-Swing% — the rate of pitches where he swings at a pitch classified as outside the strike zone by PITCHF/x — is at its lowest point of the season, but it was also at its lowest point in June, when he was terrible. His overall swing rate is pretty similar to where it’s been all season, so he’s not actually taking more pitches. In fact, Hamilton’s swing rate in August is the second highest in the Major Leagues (behind only Mike Morse), so the idea that he’s developing into a patient hitter who works counts doesn’t really seem to stand up to scrutiny.
However, in that same article, Richard Durrett gets an interesting quote from Ron Washington:
“It’s impossible to step in that box and see as many pitches as these guys see and not chase,” manager Ron Washington said. “You just have to minimize your chases and how far you chase them. He quit chasing them a mile out of the strike zone and is just chasing them a half a mile.”
While Hamilton claims that he’s not chasing as often — which seems to not really be true — Washington states that the difference is in the magnitude of the chase rather than the frequency. And this is a point where O-Swing% can’t help us that much, since it just provides a binary strike/not-strike classification for all pitches, no matter whether the pitch is an inch outside or a foot outside. There are obviously some non-strikes that are harder to hit than others, and if Hamilton is varying the types of out-of-zone pitches he swings at, that could have a legitimate impact on his results.
In fact, there is one line in the chart above that would seemingly line up with Washington’s assessment; the O-Contact%. In August, Hamilton’s rate of contact on pitches out of the zone that he chases is 66%, well north of where it was in June and July, and even higher than it was in the first two months of the season when he was crushing the baseball. His Z-Contact% — contact on pitches in the strike zone — isn’t really much different than it was during his slump, so almost the entirety of his improvement in August contact rate can be attributed to putting the bat on the ball more often when he reaches for pitches out of the zone.
This would seem to align with Washington’s observation – he’s chasing, but he’s chasing better pitches to hit. Thanks to TexasLeaguers.com, we can look at a breakdown of the locations of pitches in August that he’s taken and that he’s swung at.
There’s no question pitchers have been aggressively attacking Hamilton away, and because of his free-swinging tendencies, they’re going well off the plate with some frequency. But, you’ll notice that there’s not a single data point in the first plot that is to the left of the -2 inch line, meaning that Hamilton has taken 100% of the pitches he’s seen this month that are at least one inch outside the border of the strike zone, and he’s only chased four pitches that were both low and away according to PITCHF/x.
Now, compare that plot to this one from June, which is when Hamilton began his tailspin:
Not only was he chasing pitches that were more than an inch off the plate, but there’s a large cluster of pitches both down and away that he went after. Pitchers were throwing sliders, curves, and cutters that ended up at his ankles and well off the plate, and those are pitches that he just couldn’t get his bat on.
In the first two weeks of August, he’s done a better job of laying off that down-and-away breaking ball. In any two week sample, however, we also have to realize that he could have just faced a series of pitches who aren’t very good at throwing those types of pitches or missed their location, and the fact that he’s still swinging at about the same population of pitches that are away-but-not-low suggests that he’s not really a reformed hack just yet. Is he working on it? It seems like it, and given how bad he was in two months, it would be amazing if he didn’t try to make some adjustments. His results have improved, and there seems to be some evidence that he’s swinging at easier pitches to hit, but I don’t think the data supports the idea that he’s now working counts and forcing pitchers to throw him strikes.
Hamilton’s still an extremely aggressive hitter. His results have probably improved faster than his approach has changed, partly due to the fact that he’s a really talented hitter who can drive pitches that most players cannot. The data doesn’t support Hamilton’s self-evaluation as much as it does support Washington’s, but that’s okay – just swinging at better pitches out of the zone might be enough for Hamilton to succeed. He’s never going to be a guy who only swings at strikes. Getting him to swing at the right kinds of balls might be the best the Rangers can hope for.
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“I’m just making my mind up that I’m going to try to focus better on taking more pitches and getting in better hitter’s counts,” Hamilton said. “You see the difference. My third at-bat, I struck out. He didn’t throw me a strike. I asked the umpire, ‘Did he throw any strikes?’ He said, ‘No.’ That was the difference, being patient and getting in good hitter’s counts and knowing that if they’re pitching it there, you can hit it instead of trying to make something happen. Just take your base and score runs.”
He’s definitely saying the right things, and his recent performance is a dramatic improvement. So, is Hamilton really becoming more selective?
Judge for yourself.
Month PA O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact%
April 96 42% 83% 57% 56% 82% 70%
May 111 44% 82% 58% 53% 81% 67%
June 107 39% 80% 56% 41% 75% 60%
July 91 44% 85% 60% 48% 77% 64%
August 55 39% 84% 57% 66% 77% 72%
His O-Swing% — the rate of pitches where he swings at a pitch classified as outside the strike zone by PITCHF/x — is at its lowest point of the season, but it was also at its lowest point in June, when he was terrible. His overall swing rate is pretty similar to where it’s been all season, so he’s not actually taking more pitches. In fact, Hamilton’s swing rate in August is the second highest in the Major Leagues (behind only Mike Morse), so the idea that he’s developing into a patient hitter who works counts doesn’t really seem to stand up to scrutiny.
However, in that same article, Richard Durrett gets an interesting quote from Ron Washington:
“It’s impossible to step in that box and see as many pitches as these guys see and not chase,” manager Ron Washington said. “You just have to minimize your chases and how far you chase them. He quit chasing them a mile out of the strike zone and is just chasing them a half a mile.”
While Hamilton claims that he’s not chasing as often — which seems to not really be true — Washington states that the difference is in the magnitude of the chase rather than the frequency. And this is a point where O-Swing% can’t help us that much, since it just provides a binary strike/not-strike classification for all pitches, no matter whether the pitch is an inch outside or a foot outside. There are obviously some non-strikes that are harder to hit than others, and if Hamilton is varying the types of out-of-zone pitches he swings at, that could have a legitimate impact on his results.
In fact, there is one line in the chart above that would seemingly line up with Washington’s assessment; the O-Contact%. In August, Hamilton’s rate of contact on pitches out of the zone that he chases is 66%, well north of where it was in June and July, and even higher than it was in the first two months of the season when he was crushing the baseball. His Z-Contact% — contact on pitches in the strike zone — isn’t really much different than it was during his slump, so almost the entirety of his improvement in August contact rate can be attributed to putting the bat on the ball more often when he reaches for pitches out of the zone.
This would seem to align with Washington’s observation – he’s chasing, but he’s chasing better pitches to hit. Thanks to TexasLeaguers.com, we can look at a breakdown of the locations of pitches in August that he’s taken and that he’s swung at.
There’s no question pitchers have been aggressively attacking Hamilton away, and because of his free-swinging tendencies, they’re going well off the plate with some frequency. But, you’ll notice that there’s not a single data point in the first plot that is to the left of the -2 inch line, meaning that Hamilton has taken 100% of the pitches he’s seen this month that are at least one inch outside the border of the strike zone, and he’s only chased four pitches that were both low and away according to PITCHF/x.
Now, compare that plot to this one from June, which is when Hamilton began his tailspin:
Not only was he chasing pitches that were more than an inch off the plate, but there’s a large cluster of pitches both down and away that he went after. Pitchers were throwing sliders, curves, and cutters that ended up at his ankles and well off the plate, and those are pitches that he just couldn’t get his bat on.
In the first two weeks of August, he’s done a better job of laying off that down-and-away breaking ball. In any two week sample, however, we also have to realize that he could have just faced a series of pitches who aren’t very good at throwing those types of pitches or missed their location, and the fact that he’s still swinging at about the same population of pitches that are away-but-not-low suggests that he’s not really a reformed hack just yet. Is he working on it? It seems like it, and given how bad he was in two months, it would be amazing if he didn’t try to make some adjustments. His results have improved, and there seems to be some evidence that he’s swinging at easier pitches to hit, but I don’t think the data supports the idea that he’s now working counts and forcing pitchers to throw him strikes.
Hamilton’s still an extremely aggressive hitter. His results have probably improved faster than his approach has changed, partly due to the fact that he’s a really talented hitter who can drive pitches that most players cannot. The data doesn’t support Hamilton’s self-evaluation as much as it does support Washington’s, but that’s okay – just swinging at better pitches out of the zone might be enough for Hamilton to succeed. He’s never going to be a guy who only swings at strikes. Getting him to swing at the right kinds of balls might be the best the Rangers can hope for.
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Buster Posey Making Strong Case For NL MVP.
The Giants took it on the chin Tuesday night, losing 14-2 to the Nationals. But that didn’t stop catcher Buster Posey from adding to the spectacular numbers he’s posted since the All-Star break: .457/.531/.787 with seven doubles and eight home runs in 113 plate appearances. His wRC+ over that time is an astounding 248. Simply put, he’s been the best hitter in baseball in the second half, and it’s not particularly close. Mike Trout — regularly regarded as “the best player on the planet” — has accumulated 2.3 WAR to Posey’s 2.6 over the past 30 days, and that’s with Posey’s catchers-legs base running and lower defensive rating.
For the season, Posey’s batting .332/.406/.547 with 19 home runs. His 158 wRC+ ranks fourth in the National League, behind Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, and Ryan Braun. He’s accumulated 5.0 WAR, good for fifth in the league, behind McCutchen, David Wright, Braun, and Michael Bourn. And again, Posey takes a hit for his base running.
McCutchen is likely considered the front runner for the National League MVP. His offensive numbers are gaudy: .362/.422/.609 with 23 home runs. His league-leading wRC+ sits at 175. The Pirates’ center fielder has accumulated 5.9 WAR, and that includes a negative defensive rating which is hard to understand if you, like me, regularly watch him roam the outfield for the Bucs. But McCutchen has cooled off a bit in the second half, at the same time Posey has amped it up. McCutchen’s second-half line sits at: .347/.427/.525 with four home runs.
If not for his knee injuries, Votto likely would have battled McCutchen for MVP honors to the end of the season, with their respective teams chasing the same National League Central title. But Votto’s been on the disabled list since just after the All-Star break and may not return until September.
Wright was in the discussion, too, particularly in the first half when the Mets were playing surprisingly competitive baseball. But New York’s season has taken an ugly turn in the second half even though Wright has continued to post very good numbers. Braun is having an almost identical season to 2011, when he beat out Matt Kemp for the National League MVP crown. But like Kemp’s Dodgers last season, Braun’s Brewers are not contenting this year. The seasons McCutchen and Posey are having for contending teams, coupled with his somewhat controversial win last season, likely knocks Braun out of the race.
Posey’s unearthly production in the second half has fueled the Giants’ re-invigorated offense. And that has helped keep San Francisco either tied for, or in sole possession of, first place in the National League West since the end of June. And Posey has done all of this while playing the most demanding defensive position on the field and quarterbacking the Giants’ very good starting rotation.
Posey’s played in 104 games to date. Only 81 of those have been as catcher; he’s played first base in the other games, save for three when he served as the designated hitter during interleague play. We’re likely to see a similar catcher-to-first baseman ratio for the Giants’ final 46 games, as manager Bruce Bochy works to keep Posey’s bat in the lineup while also giving his legs a rest. At this point, it’s easy to forget that Posey’s in his first season back after suffering a brutal and season-ending injury to his left ankle and lower leg last May. And while that’s more of a factor for the Comeback Player of the Year Award, I’d be surprised if some voters didn’t take that into account.
If Posey continues to produce as he has through the Giants’ first 116 games, he’d end the season with 6.94 WAR. That would land him on the list of Top 30 seasons in WAR by a catcher in the last 50 years. Johnny Bench‘s 1972 season with the Reds tops that list at 10.2 WAR. Bench won the MVP that year, as he had in 1970, the third-best season by a catcher since 1962 (8.7 WAR). Bench’s 1974 and 1975 seasons are also on the list, but he didn’t win MVP honors either of those seasons, losing out to Steve Garvey and teammate Joe Morgan, respectively. The Reds were in the postseason in 1970, 1972 and won the World Series in 1975.
Only three other catcher seasons in the Top 30 Since 1962 also resulted in MVP Awards: Joe Mauer with the Twins in 2009; Ivan Rodriguez with the Rangers in 1999, and Elston Howard with the Yankees in 1963. All three of those teams played in the postseason.
Mike Piazza has four seasons on the list (1993, 1996, 1997, and 199. Gary Carter has three (1982, 1983 and 1984), and Joe Torre has two (1966 and 1970). None of the teams those catchers played for in those years made the postseason. None was awarded the MVP.
With a bit more than 25% of games still to be played, the competition for the 2012 NL MVP Award will be spirited. Andrew McCutchen is in the lead but Buster Posey is making a strong second-half push. The Pirates and Giants are in a similar position, each vying for their division title, but also competing with each other for one of the two wild cards. Fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be an exciting ride.
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For the season, Posey’s batting .332/.406/.547 with 19 home runs. His 158 wRC+ ranks fourth in the National League, behind Joey Votto, Andrew McCutchen, and Ryan Braun. He’s accumulated 5.0 WAR, good for fifth in the league, behind McCutchen, David Wright, Braun, and Michael Bourn. And again, Posey takes a hit for his base running.
McCutchen is likely considered the front runner for the National League MVP. His offensive numbers are gaudy: .362/.422/.609 with 23 home runs. His league-leading wRC+ sits at 175. The Pirates’ center fielder has accumulated 5.9 WAR, and that includes a negative defensive rating which is hard to understand if you, like me, regularly watch him roam the outfield for the Bucs. But McCutchen has cooled off a bit in the second half, at the same time Posey has amped it up. McCutchen’s second-half line sits at: .347/.427/.525 with four home runs.
If not for his knee injuries, Votto likely would have battled McCutchen for MVP honors to the end of the season, with their respective teams chasing the same National League Central title. But Votto’s been on the disabled list since just after the All-Star break and may not return until September.
Wright was in the discussion, too, particularly in the first half when the Mets were playing surprisingly competitive baseball. But New York’s season has taken an ugly turn in the second half even though Wright has continued to post very good numbers. Braun is having an almost identical season to 2011, when he beat out Matt Kemp for the National League MVP crown. But like Kemp’s Dodgers last season, Braun’s Brewers are not contenting this year. The seasons McCutchen and Posey are having for contending teams, coupled with his somewhat controversial win last season, likely knocks Braun out of the race.
Posey’s unearthly production in the second half has fueled the Giants’ re-invigorated offense. And that has helped keep San Francisco either tied for, or in sole possession of, first place in the National League West since the end of June. And Posey has done all of this while playing the most demanding defensive position on the field and quarterbacking the Giants’ very good starting rotation.
Posey’s played in 104 games to date. Only 81 of those have been as catcher; he’s played first base in the other games, save for three when he served as the designated hitter during interleague play. We’re likely to see a similar catcher-to-first baseman ratio for the Giants’ final 46 games, as manager Bruce Bochy works to keep Posey’s bat in the lineup while also giving his legs a rest. At this point, it’s easy to forget that Posey’s in his first season back after suffering a brutal and season-ending injury to his left ankle and lower leg last May. And while that’s more of a factor for the Comeback Player of the Year Award, I’d be surprised if some voters didn’t take that into account.
If Posey continues to produce as he has through the Giants’ first 116 games, he’d end the season with 6.94 WAR. That would land him on the list of Top 30 seasons in WAR by a catcher in the last 50 years. Johnny Bench‘s 1972 season with the Reds tops that list at 10.2 WAR. Bench won the MVP that year, as he had in 1970, the third-best season by a catcher since 1962 (8.7 WAR). Bench’s 1974 and 1975 seasons are also on the list, but he didn’t win MVP honors either of those seasons, losing out to Steve Garvey and teammate Joe Morgan, respectively. The Reds were in the postseason in 1970, 1972 and won the World Series in 1975.
Only three other catcher seasons in the Top 30 Since 1962 also resulted in MVP Awards: Joe Mauer with the Twins in 2009; Ivan Rodriguez with the Rangers in 1999, and Elston Howard with the Yankees in 1963. All three of those teams played in the postseason.
Mike Piazza has four seasons on the list (1993, 1996, 1997, and 199. Gary Carter has three (1982, 1983 and 1984), and Joe Torre has two (1966 and 1970). None of the teams those catchers played for in those years made the postseason. None was awarded the MVP.
With a bit more than 25% of games still to be played, the competition for the 2012 NL MVP Award will be spirited. Andrew McCutchen is in the lead but Buster Posey is making a strong second-half push. The Pirates and Giants are in a similar position, each vying for their division title, but also competing with each other for one of the two wild cards. Fasten your seat belt. It’s going to be an exciting ride.
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