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Lakers-Nuggets preview, predictions and more: Can LA stop Nikola Jokić? Can Denver stop LeBron?
Remember when people said the NBA bubble wasn’t real?
As if the four teams needed any validation, the NBA bubble rerun in the conference finals three years later only cements the credibility of their respective runs (Boston and Miami are both on their second conference finals run since then). With Los Angeles and Denver both finally healthy after two seasons derailed by injuries, and the Lakers dramatically rebuilding their roster at this year’s trade deadline, these two teams are back in the Western Conference finals for a rematch.
This isn’t 2020, though. Both teams are effectively different.
Denver’s Nikola Jokić has become arguably the best player in the world — a two-time MVP who was the runner-up for a three-peat bid this season. Jamal Murray is healthy and playing like his peak self. Aaron Gordon is a better version of the player Jerami Grant was in 2020 – better defender, rebounder and cutter. Michael Porter Jr. has emerged as a starter and legitimate third option since 2020. Kentavious-Caldwell Pope – who started for the Lakers in the 2020 bubble – and Bruce Brown Jr. are two of the league’s better role players on the wing. The Nuggets have posted the best offensive rating in the playoffs. The Jokić-Murray pick-and-roll is the gold standard of two-man games. Denver is a bona fide contender.
The Lakers have also undergone significant change, with a new head coach and completely new roster. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have transformed their games and roles since the championship. Austin Reaves has broken out as a legitimate third option. D’Angelo Russell is a wild card that raises their nightly ceiling. Dennis Schröder is a ball-pressuring sparkplug. Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt provide frontcourt versatility that recent Lakers rosters lacked. Lonnie Walker IV, Troy Brown Jr. and Malik Beasley can contribute if called upon. The Lakers have a clear identity built on their league-leading defense, dynamic transition attack, newfound roster depth and the sheer greatness of their superstar duo.
This is a heavyweight bout between the postseason’s best offense and defense, as well the two best teams in the West post-All-Star break. These are two deserving contenders, though only one can win. This time around, the Nuggets, not the Lakers, are the No. 1 seed and the slight series favorite.
Let’s get into it.
Series schedule
Here are the statistical profiles of the two teams in the playoffs:
Postseason stats
And here is the season-series breakdown:
Season series stats
The big Lakers question: How do they try to slow Jokić?
Three years later, the Lakers’ goal against Jokić remains unchanged: Make him uncomfortable.
That was the strategy in 2020 when then-Lakers center Dwight Howard dubbed himself “Batman” as a playful antihero to Jokić’s “Joker” nickname. Howard’s post defense, which remained elite into his mid-30s, and physicality, allowed Davis and James to wreak havoc from the opposite side as elite help defenders rather than having to take on the Jokić assignment themselves.
Not only is Jokić is at least a couple of levels higher than he was in 2020, but the Lakers don’t have a Howard on this roster. Mo Bamba is doubtful for Game 1, and his return timeline is still unclear. Wenyen Gabriel doesn’t have the required strength or physicality. Tristan Thompson checks those boxes, but he’s limited offensively and hasn’t been a rotation player in a calendar year.
That means Davis will draw the Jokić matchup, as Ham revealed to little surprise on Monday.
“Man, try to catch him coming out of his house and kidnap him,” Ham joked of the strategy against Jokić. “Nah, I mean, obviously, everyone knows how great he is. We’re gonna have to mix up pitches. AD will start on him. We have a few different guys that will see action against him.”
Davis spent nearly 22 minutes defending Jokic during the regular season, according to NBA.com – his second-most time spent against a player in the regular season. Jokić shot 16-for-25 against Davis (64.0 percent), though he only dished six assists compared with three turnovers.
Of course, Davis has been on a defensive tear this postseason, playing some of the most impressive individual defense in modern NBA history. Jokić, meanwhile, is scoring and passing with unprecedented efficiency. This has the makings of an all-time center clash.
Jokić is arguably at his best when he’s posting up in the middle of the floor, which allows him to attack a defense from either direction. On this possession, Jokić screens and then rolls into an isolation at the free-throw line. He methodically backs Davis down, pushing him closer and closer to the rim, before spinning off him for a funky reverse layup plus the foul.
Jokić’s heft and ground-bound game can be difficult for Davis to defend. The Nuggets’ star moves with patience, allowing defenders to fly by him as he lays the ball in. Jokić can move Davis the way most opponents can’t. Davis, of course, will counter with his length, athleticism and instincts.
Los Angeles will mix up its coverages, allowing Davis to defend Jokić one-on-one while also sprinkling in some double teams at certain spots on the floor. During the regular season, the Lakers often doubled Jokić from high up on the floor, with the nearest defender crashing down and another defender bumping over to replace him.
This is a delicate balance for the Lakers. If the Lakers send the same look at him too frequently, Jokić will immediately counter. On this play, Walker IV retreats momentarily, giving Jokić a sliver of space to finds a cutting Gordon for a wide-open dunk.
“You’re not gonna speed him up. You’re not gonna slow him down,” Ham said. “You just have to make sure you have a presence on him at all times.”
Jokić isn’t just deadly from inside the arc. He’s dangerous from beyond it as well, shooting 47.5 percent on 3s in these playoffs.
Watch him set a backscreen for Gordon and quickly pop into a wide-open 3. Davis, who is often looking to stay closer to the paint and protect the rim in drop coverage, can’t get out to Jokić in time.
Davis showed in the Warriors series that he’s capable of doing multiple things at once. He can drop back, corral Murray and still recover to Jokić in case he receives a pocket pass or he pops out. But Murray and Jokić are going to make him work. Collectively, they aren’t the perimeter threats that Steph Curry or Klay Thompson were shooting off the dribble or zipping off pindown screens off the ball. But the Nuggets’ combination is lethal with exquisite chemistry and timing.
The Jokić-Davis clash is fascinating. The game’s best offensive big vs. its best defensive big, both at the peak of their respective powers. Each game could just be determined by whichever superstar center is able to exert his will more.
The big Nuggets question: Can they limit James’ bully-ball pick-and-roll tactics?
James’ performance in Game 6 against Golden State was a reminder of both how smart and ruthless he can be as a ballhandler. He picked on Curry, relentlessly targeting him pick-and-roll action after pick-and-roll action. He also played bully-ball from the post and controlled the pace of the game, pushing all of the right buttons.
James has been conserving his energy to some degree, even if he publicly rejects that premise. He’s playing off the ball more than ever. But the Lakers are still at their best with the ball in his hands – not Reaves’, Russell’s or Schröder’s. All three ballhandlers are effective, even in crunchtime. But the Lakers, at some point, will only go as far as James can take them offensively.
This is the ideal series for James to rediscover his mojo and assert his dominance. He has two bright-red targets in Jokić and Murray (and possibly a third in Porter). If the Nuggets try to hide Jokic or Murray on another player – say, Jarred Vanderbilt in the corner – the Lakers will have that player come up to screen for James.
Here’s James calling for Troy Brown Jr. to come across the floor and screen for him, dragging Jokić into the fray. James retreats, giving Brown a chance to flip the screen. With a runway to the rim, James crosses over and back before finishing with his left hand.
And here’s another example with Murray instead. James subtly calls for the drag screen from Walker early in the shot clock, drawing the switch from Murray. James hesitates for a moment, freezing Murray, before spinning baseline and shouldering him underneath the basket. That’s just too easy.
Denver can sag off James in the pick-and-roll, going under screens and daring him to shoot 3s. James shot 32.1 percent on 3s in the regular season and is currently at 26.3 percent in the playoffs. But the Lakers have counters: James using the space as a runway, Davis slipping the screen, the screener rolling into the Nuggets involved in the action.
The Nuggets actually have one of the league’s better James defenders in Gordon, who spent his second-most defensive minutes on James this season. James shot 10-for-16 (62.5 percent), per NBA.com. He had 12 assists, though he also seven turnovers. Despite those numbers, over the past few seasons, Gordon has relatively held his own against James. Gordon is just as strong and even more athletic (at least compared to the late 30s version of James). James can’t physically overwhelm him the way he can most opposing wing defenders.
But considering the alternatives of Jokić and Murray, and the Nuggets’ paint defense limitations, and this should be a vintage James series.
The Lakers have been winning with James playing below his lofty standard on offense. It hasn’t mattered because his teammates have stepped up, the Lakers’ defense has been great and their opponents have both suffered from internal strife, to varying degrees. But that isn’t the case with Denver. The Nuggets are better than the Grizzlies and Warriors. The Lakers will need James’ A-game to win this series. And they should be able to get it, given his advantages against non-Gordon defenders.
Lakers’ X-factor: Rui Hachimura
Outside of James and Davis, any Laker can be an X-factor on a given night. But this is a particularly important series on both ends for Hachimura.
Ham successfully determined that the best way to counter the way the Warriors were defending Vanderbilt – or, rather, not defending him – was to insert Schröder into the starting lineup to alleviate spacing and maintain ball pressure. But this is a tough matchup to play three guards. Los Angeles likely need to go back to Vanderbilt for defensive purposes. Or, they can insert Hachimura, who toes the line between Vanderbilt and Schröder.
The Nuggets are often relatively big, with Gordon, Porter, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown Jr. flanking the 6-foot-11 Jokić. The Lakers will likely have to counter with bigger lineups, at times. Hachmiura allows for that. He can play any frontcourt position. The Nuggets likely won’t guard him at the 3-point line, but he’s made 53.3 percent of 3-point shots this postseason (on just 2.5 attempts per game).
Los Angeles was impressed with Hachimura’s post-defense against Karl-Anthony Towns in the regular season and Play-In tournament, as well as his work against Jaren Jackson Jr. in the first-round series. Jokić is at a different level as a post scorer and passer, but Hachimura should be able to at least not get bulldozed. Another option is Hachimura fronting Jokić, with Davis and James lurking behind him ready to help on the catch. (It’s only worth trying Hachimura on Jokić if Davis is on the floor to help prevent any problems that arise.)
If Vanderbilt is squeezed from the rotation, Gabriel is too small for Jokić and Bamba is still recovering, the Lakers need to turn somewhere. Hachimura has the physicality to match Denver’s bigs and wings.
Nuggets’ X-factor: Michael Porter Jr.
11, 5, 21, 11, 19, 10.
Those are Michael Porter Jr.’s scoring totals across the six games of the Phoenix. Denver doesn’t need Porter to score consistently to win this series. But he’s a swing player that can elevate their ceiling when he’s making multiple 3s and easy baskets at the rim.
It’s not uncommon for scorers to shoot better and score more in wins, but Porter’s splits in the regular season were drastic: 18.8 points on a 65.3 true shooting percentage in wins vs. 14.8 points on a 55.3 true shooting percentage in losses. In the playoffs, it hasn’t been as severe: 14.0 points on a 60.6 true shooting percentage in wins vs. 15.7 points on a 57.0 true shooting percentage in losses.
He’s capable of erupting at any moment, be it a walk-in 3-pointer in transition or a back-cut for a dunk off an assist from Jokić. With his 6-foot-10 frame and high release point, his shot is almost impossible to block or even alter. The Lakers will likely put a guard on him – the guess here is Reaves – when they deploy their three-guard lineups, and Porter should be able to rise up and drain jumpers over them. If he can exploit the Lakers’ smaller, three-guard lineups, forcing them to go away from them, he’ll have had a considerable impact.
Porter has been a glaring defensive minus for much of his career. He’s been better this season, at times, but the Lakers will be able to exploit him in most of their lineups. Denver will try to hide him as best they can, but the Lakers will target him and test his off-ball awareness and screen navigation.
Porter is in his fourth season (he missed his rookie season due to a back injury). Most of his peers from the 2018 draft class have had a playoff moment. This is his chance.
Series X-factor: Points in the paint
To borrow a Ham phrase, both of these teams live in and love the paint.
Whichever team outscored the other in points in the paint has a solid chance of winning that game. Neither team is a prolific 3-point shooting group. In the regular season, the Nuggets and Lakers ranked 25th and 26th, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game. In the playoffs, the Lakers ranked 13th (out of 16) and the Nuggets rank 15th. This is going to be a paint war.
The Nuggets and Lakers currently rank first and second, respectively, in points in the paint per game in the playoffs. The Lakers are allowing the ninth-most paint points in the playoffs; the Nuggets are allowing the seventh-most. This is also a reflection, to some extent, of fastbreak points and second-chance points, as those are often (but not always) in the paint. Something is going to give one way or the other.
Denver is the better rebounding team on both ends. That’s a potential pivot point. Los Angeles’ guards have a propensity to leak out in an effort to ignite their transition game. That can’t happen when the Nuggets have players like Gordon, Porter, Brown and Christian Braun on the floor. Active, athletic wings and guards can make the Lakers pay. Los Angeles has to be locked in.
Additional questions
Prediction
It’s impossible to take much, if anything, from the four regular-season matchups. Each matchup happened before mid-January. The Lakers have only four rotation players from those games (James, Davis, Reaves and Schröder). They didn’t have James or Davis for the most recent tilt.
That said, Denver is the toughest opponent the Lakers have faced in the James-Davis era. Jokić has been the best player in the playoffs. The Nuggets’ offense is a well-oiled machine. They’ve been the best team this postseason. It’s reasonable to make a case that they should be the championship favorites at this point.
But it’s difficult to bet against James and Davis, at least until a team beats them when they’re both (relatively) healthy and available.
Los Angeles has two players who can match Jokić during a given game or series. Both superstars attack the Nuggets’ defense where they’re most vulnerable. For as great as Jokić is, and as underrated as he is on the defensive end, he’s still an average rim-protector at best and often worse than that. Denver’s defense has been better in the playoffs, but Los Angeles has too many ballhandlers and scoring threats that can get downhill and either to the rim or the free-throw line. Memphis and Golden State couldn’t stop them with better defensive personnel.
Defensively, the Lakers already solved the Nuggets’ offense once and have the personnel to do it again. Jokić and Murray are better. The supporting cast is, too. It won’t be easy. The Nuggets could win this series handily, and it wouldn’t necessarily be surprising. They’re that good.
But now that James can sniff his fifth NBA championship – one that would match him with Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, and put him one behind Michael Jordan – he’s going to play with a resolve he’s only shown glimpses of this postseason. This is why he’s been conserving his energy. The decisive version of him, mixed with Davis’ defensive dominance, is too much for Denver to overcome. The Lakers make the NBA Finals, where the Boston Celtics await them in the Battle for Banner No. 18.
Lakers in seven.
Remember when people said the NBA bubble wasn’t real?
As if the four teams needed any validation, the NBA bubble rerun in the conference finals three years later only cements the credibility of their respective runs (Boston and Miami are both on their second conference finals run since then). With Los Angeles and Denver both finally healthy after two seasons derailed by injuries, and the Lakers dramatically rebuilding their roster at this year’s trade deadline, these two teams are back in the Western Conference finals for a rematch.
This isn’t 2020, though. Both teams are effectively different.
Denver’s Nikola Jokić has become arguably the best player in the world — a two-time MVP who was the runner-up for a three-peat bid this season. Jamal Murray is healthy and playing like his peak self. Aaron Gordon is a better version of the player Jerami Grant was in 2020 – better defender, rebounder and cutter. Michael Porter Jr. has emerged as a starter and legitimate third option since 2020. Kentavious-Caldwell Pope – who started for the Lakers in the 2020 bubble – and Bruce Brown Jr. are two of the league’s better role players on the wing. The Nuggets have posted the best offensive rating in the playoffs. The Jokić-Murray pick-and-roll is the gold standard of two-man games. Denver is a bona fide contender.
The Lakers have also undergone significant change, with a new head coach and completely new roster. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have transformed their games and roles since the championship. Austin Reaves has broken out as a legitimate third option. D’Angelo Russell is a wild card that raises their nightly ceiling. Dennis Schröder is a ball-pressuring sparkplug. Rui Hachimura and Jarred Vanderbilt provide frontcourt versatility that recent Lakers rosters lacked. Lonnie Walker IV, Troy Brown Jr. and Malik Beasley can contribute if called upon. The Lakers have a clear identity built on their league-leading defense, dynamic transition attack, newfound roster depth and the sheer greatness of their superstar duo.
This is a heavyweight bout between the postseason’s best offense and defense, as well the two best teams in the West post-All-Star break. These are two deserving contenders, though only one can win. This time around, the Nuggets, not the Lakers, are the No. 1 seed and the slight series favorite.
Let’s get into it.
Series schedule
Here are the statistical profiles of the two teams in the playoffs:
Postseason stats
And here is the season-series breakdown:
Season series stats
The big Lakers question: How do they try to slow Jokić?
Three years later, the Lakers’ goal against Jokić remains unchanged: Make him uncomfortable.
That was the strategy in 2020 when then-Lakers center Dwight Howard dubbed himself “Batman” as a playful antihero to Jokić’s “Joker” nickname. Howard’s post defense, which remained elite into his mid-30s, and physicality, allowed Davis and James to wreak havoc from the opposite side as elite help defenders rather than having to take on the Jokić assignment themselves.
Not only is Jokić is at least a couple of levels higher than he was in 2020, but the Lakers don’t have a Howard on this roster. Mo Bamba is doubtful for Game 1, and his return timeline is still unclear. Wenyen Gabriel doesn’t have the required strength or physicality. Tristan Thompson checks those boxes, but he’s limited offensively and hasn’t been a rotation player in a calendar year.
That means Davis will draw the Jokić matchup, as Ham revealed to little surprise on Monday.
“Man, try to catch him coming out of his house and kidnap him,” Ham joked of the strategy against Jokić. “Nah, I mean, obviously, everyone knows how great he is. We’re gonna have to mix up pitches. AD will start on him. We have a few different guys that will see action against him.”
Davis spent nearly 22 minutes defending Jokic during the regular season, according to NBA.com – his second-most time spent against a player in the regular season. Jokić shot 16-for-25 against Davis (64.0 percent), though he only dished six assists compared with three turnovers.
Of course, Davis has been on a defensive tear this postseason, playing some of the most impressive individual defense in modern NBA history. Jokić, meanwhile, is scoring and passing with unprecedented efficiency. This has the makings of an all-time center clash.
Jokić is arguably at his best when he’s posting up in the middle of the floor, which allows him to attack a defense from either direction. On this possession, Jokić screens and then rolls into an isolation at the free-throw line. He methodically backs Davis down, pushing him closer and closer to the rim, before spinning off him for a funky reverse layup plus the foul.
Jokić’s heft and ground-bound game can be difficult for Davis to defend. The Nuggets’ star moves with patience, allowing defenders to fly by him as he lays the ball in. Jokić can move Davis the way most opponents can’t. Davis, of course, will counter with his length, athleticism and instincts.
Los Angeles will mix up its coverages, allowing Davis to defend Jokić one-on-one while also sprinkling in some double teams at certain spots on the floor. During the regular season, the Lakers often doubled Jokić from high up on the floor, with the nearest defender crashing down and another defender bumping over to replace him.
This is a delicate balance for the Lakers. If the Lakers send the same look at him too frequently, Jokić will immediately counter. On this play, Walker IV retreats momentarily, giving Jokić a sliver of space to finds a cutting Gordon for a wide-open dunk.
“You’re not gonna speed him up. You’re not gonna slow him down,” Ham said. “You just have to make sure you have a presence on him at all times.”
Jokić isn’t just deadly from inside the arc. He’s dangerous from beyond it as well, shooting 47.5 percent on 3s in these playoffs.
Watch him set a backscreen for Gordon and quickly pop into a wide-open 3. Davis, who is often looking to stay closer to the paint and protect the rim in drop coverage, can’t get out to Jokić in time.
Davis showed in the Warriors series that he’s capable of doing multiple things at once. He can drop back, corral Murray and still recover to Jokić in case he receives a pocket pass or he pops out. But Murray and Jokić are going to make him work. Collectively, they aren’t the perimeter threats that Steph Curry or Klay Thompson were shooting off the dribble or zipping off pindown screens off the ball. But the Nuggets’ combination is lethal with exquisite chemistry and timing.
The Jokić-Davis clash is fascinating. The game’s best offensive big vs. its best defensive big, both at the peak of their respective powers. Each game could just be determined by whichever superstar center is able to exert his will more.
The big Nuggets question: Can they limit James’ bully-ball pick-and-roll tactics?
James’ performance in Game 6 against Golden State was a reminder of both how smart and ruthless he can be as a ballhandler. He picked on Curry, relentlessly targeting him pick-and-roll action after pick-and-roll action. He also played bully-ball from the post and controlled the pace of the game, pushing all of the right buttons.
James has been conserving his energy to some degree, even if he publicly rejects that premise. He’s playing off the ball more than ever. But the Lakers are still at their best with the ball in his hands – not Reaves’, Russell’s or Schröder’s. All three ballhandlers are effective, even in crunchtime. But the Lakers, at some point, will only go as far as James can take them offensively.
This is the ideal series for James to rediscover his mojo and assert his dominance. He has two bright-red targets in Jokić and Murray (and possibly a third in Porter). If the Nuggets try to hide Jokic or Murray on another player – say, Jarred Vanderbilt in the corner – the Lakers will have that player come up to screen for James.
Here’s James calling for Troy Brown Jr. to come across the floor and screen for him, dragging Jokić into the fray. James retreats, giving Brown a chance to flip the screen. With a runway to the rim, James crosses over and back before finishing with his left hand.
And here’s another example with Murray instead. James subtly calls for the drag screen from Walker early in the shot clock, drawing the switch from Murray. James hesitates for a moment, freezing Murray, before spinning baseline and shouldering him underneath the basket. That’s just too easy.
Denver can sag off James in the pick-and-roll, going under screens and daring him to shoot 3s. James shot 32.1 percent on 3s in the regular season and is currently at 26.3 percent in the playoffs. But the Lakers have counters: James using the space as a runway, Davis slipping the screen, the screener rolling into the Nuggets involved in the action.
The Nuggets actually have one of the league’s better James defenders in Gordon, who spent his second-most defensive minutes on James this season. James shot 10-for-16 (62.5 percent), per NBA.com. He had 12 assists, though he also seven turnovers. Despite those numbers, over the past few seasons, Gordon has relatively held his own against James. Gordon is just as strong and even more athletic (at least compared to the late 30s version of James). James can’t physically overwhelm him the way he can most opposing wing defenders.
But considering the alternatives of Jokić and Murray, and the Nuggets’ paint defense limitations, and this should be a vintage James series.
The Lakers have been winning with James playing below his lofty standard on offense. It hasn’t mattered because his teammates have stepped up, the Lakers’ defense has been great and their opponents have both suffered from internal strife, to varying degrees. But that isn’t the case with Denver. The Nuggets are better than the Grizzlies and Warriors. The Lakers will need James’ A-game to win this series. And they should be able to get it, given his advantages against non-Gordon defenders.
Lakers’ X-factor: Rui Hachimura
Outside of James and Davis, any Laker can be an X-factor on a given night. But this is a particularly important series on both ends for Hachimura.
Ham successfully determined that the best way to counter the way the Warriors were defending Vanderbilt – or, rather, not defending him – was to insert Schröder into the starting lineup to alleviate spacing and maintain ball pressure. But this is a tough matchup to play three guards. Los Angeles likely need to go back to Vanderbilt for defensive purposes. Or, they can insert Hachimura, who toes the line between Vanderbilt and Schröder.
The Nuggets are often relatively big, with Gordon, Porter, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown Jr. flanking the 6-foot-11 Jokić. The Lakers will likely have to counter with bigger lineups, at times. Hachmiura allows for that. He can play any frontcourt position. The Nuggets likely won’t guard him at the 3-point line, but he’s made 53.3 percent of 3-point shots this postseason (on just 2.5 attempts per game).
Los Angeles was impressed with Hachimura’s post-defense against Karl-Anthony Towns in the regular season and Play-In tournament, as well as his work against Jaren Jackson Jr. in the first-round series. Jokić is at a different level as a post scorer and passer, but Hachimura should be able to at least not get bulldozed. Another option is Hachimura fronting Jokić, with Davis and James lurking behind him ready to help on the catch. (It’s only worth trying Hachimura on Jokić if Davis is on the floor to help prevent any problems that arise.)
If Vanderbilt is squeezed from the rotation, Gabriel is too small for Jokić and Bamba is still recovering, the Lakers need to turn somewhere. Hachimura has the physicality to match Denver’s bigs and wings.
Nuggets’ X-factor: Michael Porter Jr.
11, 5, 21, 11, 19, 10.
Those are Michael Porter Jr.’s scoring totals across the six games of the Phoenix. Denver doesn’t need Porter to score consistently to win this series. But he’s a swing player that can elevate their ceiling when he’s making multiple 3s and easy baskets at the rim.
It’s not uncommon for scorers to shoot better and score more in wins, but Porter’s splits in the regular season were drastic: 18.8 points on a 65.3 true shooting percentage in wins vs. 14.8 points on a 55.3 true shooting percentage in losses. In the playoffs, it hasn’t been as severe: 14.0 points on a 60.6 true shooting percentage in wins vs. 15.7 points on a 57.0 true shooting percentage in losses.
He’s capable of erupting at any moment, be it a walk-in 3-pointer in transition or a back-cut for a dunk off an assist from Jokić. With his 6-foot-10 frame and high release point, his shot is almost impossible to block or even alter. The Lakers will likely put a guard on him – the guess here is Reaves – when they deploy their three-guard lineups, and Porter should be able to rise up and drain jumpers over them. If he can exploit the Lakers’ smaller, three-guard lineups, forcing them to go away from them, he’ll have had a considerable impact.
Porter has been a glaring defensive minus for much of his career. He’s been better this season, at times, but the Lakers will be able to exploit him in most of their lineups. Denver will try to hide him as best they can, but the Lakers will target him and test his off-ball awareness and screen navigation.
Porter is in his fourth season (he missed his rookie season due to a back injury). Most of his peers from the 2018 draft class have had a playoff moment. This is his chance.
Series X-factor: Points in the paint
To borrow a Ham phrase, both of these teams live in and love the paint.
Whichever team outscored the other in points in the paint has a solid chance of winning that game. Neither team is a prolific 3-point shooting group. In the regular season, the Nuggets and Lakers ranked 25th and 26th, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game. In the playoffs, the Lakers ranked 13th (out of 16) and the Nuggets rank 15th. This is going to be a paint war.
The Nuggets and Lakers currently rank first and second, respectively, in points in the paint per game in the playoffs. The Lakers are allowing the ninth-most paint points in the playoffs; the Nuggets are allowing the seventh-most. This is also a reflection, to some extent, of fastbreak points and second-chance points, as those are often (but not always) in the paint. Something is going to give one way or the other.
Denver is the better rebounding team on both ends. That’s a potential pivot point. Los Angeles’ guards have a propensity to leak out in an effort to ignite their transition game. That can’t happen when the Nuggets have players like Gordon, Porter, Brown and Christian Braun on the floor. Active, athletic wings and guards can make the Lakers pay. Los Angeles has to be locked in.
Additional questions
- Who do the Lakers start? Davis, James, Reaves and Russell are locks. Vanderbilt is the favorite, given the continuity with the starting group, but Schröder and Hachimura both make some sense, for different reasons (Hachimura more so).
- Does Ham start Vanderbilt but pull the plug early if the idea isn’t working? Who does he turn to then? (Again, between Schröder and Hachimura.) For what it’s worth, here’s what Ham said on Monday about the rotation: “We have to do what’s best for the Lakers. … If it calls for us changing up the lineup or someone having a prominent role early in the series and as the series wears on it gets reduced, then it is what it is.”
- How do James and Davis continue to hold up under the stress of an every-other-day series?
- Will James look spryer after a few days of rest?
- How many players does Ham use? What rotational tweaks does he make?
- Can the Lakers get Jokić in foul trouble? What about the Nuggets with Davis? The answer will likely sway a game or two, and possibly the series.
- If Jokic is in foul trouble, does Malone use former Lakers Thomas Bryant or DeAndre Jordan?
- Which big man is dusted off for this series? Gabriel? Bamba? Thompson?
- Who has the pass of the series: Jokić or James?
- Who’s the fifth-best player in this series after Jokić, Davis, James and Murray?
- Who’s the random role player — likely one on each side — who ends up swinging a game?
Prediction
It’s impossible to take much, if anything, from the four regular-season matchups. Each matchup happened before mid-January. The Lakers have only four rotation players from those games (James, Davis, Reaves and Schröder). They didn’t have James or Davis for the most recent tilt.
That said, Denver is the toughest opponent the Lakers have faced in the James-Davis era. Jokić has been the best player in the playoffs. The Nuggets’ offense is a well-oiled machine. They’ve been the best team this postseason. It’s reasonable to make a case that they should be the championship favorites at this point.
But it’s difficult to bet against James and Davis, at least until a team beats them when they’re both (relatively) healthy and available.
Los Angeles has two players who can match Jokić during a given game or series. Both superstars attack the Nuggets’ defense where they’re most vulnerable. For as great as Jokić is, and as underrated as he is on the defensive end, he’s still an average rim-protector at best and often worse than that. Denver’s defense has been better in the playoffs, but Los Angeles has too many ballhandlers and scoring threats that can get downhill and either to the rim or the free-throw line. Memphis and Golden State couldn’t stop them with better defensive personnel.
Defensively, the Lakers already solved the Nuggets’ offense once and have the personnel to do it again. Jokić and Murray are better. The supporting cast is, too. It won’t be easy. The Nuggets could win this series handily, and it wouldn’t necessarily be surprising. They’re that good.
But now that James can sniff his fifth NBA championship – one that would match him with Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, and put him one behind Michael Jordan – he’s going to play with a resolve he’s only shown glimpses of this postseason. This is why he’s been conserving his energy. The decisive version of him, mixed with Davis’ defensive dominance, is too much for Denver to overcome. The Lakers make the NBA Finals, where the Boston Celtics await them in the Battle for Banner No. 18.
Lakers in seven.
