**LA LAKERS THREAD** Sitting on 17! 2023-2024 offseason begins

If Vogel holds his clipboard at the right angle and wears the right color suit, PHX just might win it all next year.
 


What are the chances LeBron doesn’t return to Lakers? Plus, free-agent targets and other LA notes.

It’s been a little over a week since the Lakers’ season ended.

What’s the latest with LeBron James’ future? Who could the Lakers target in free agency? What are some of the various offseason paths? Is there a walk-away point with Rui Hachimura? What does D’Angelo Russell’s free-agent market look like?

Let’s dive into part one of a two-part Lakers mailbag.

What’s the percentage chance LeBron James either retires or isn’t on the Lakers next season? – @AdamKoffler

Based on conversations I’ve had over the past week or so, I’d say there’s about a 10 percent chance LeBron James isn’t back as a Laker next season, either due to retirement or playing for another team. Everyone with and around the team I’ve spoken to believes he’s returning.

James’ recent Instagram story, in which he stated, “I’m suppose to be #1 on everybody list/We’ll see what happens when I no longer exist,” referencing lyrics from Jay-Z’s “What More Can I Say,” was intriguing. Remember: Jay-Z announced he was retiring, only to return a few years later and make multiple albums since then. Could James be hinting he needs a break? Maybe a year away from the game, only to return to play alongside his son, Bronny, in 2024-25? That could be the case.

But the assumption remains that James will return. The Lakers are approaching this offseason as if he’ll be a part of the 2023-24 squad.

What potential feasible options would there be to get a solid 5 or traditional big man through free agency or trades? – @RichStapless

Realistically, what big man can the Lakers go after in free agency? – @shawnymoe2531


Let’s start with trades because those are always more fun.

The obvious candidate is Myles Turner, who the Lakers have been tied to for years. They could acquire the Pacers’ center by combining the salaries of Malik Beasley ($16.5 million) and Mo Bamba ($10.3 million), along with either their 2023 first-round pick (No. 17), a future first or multiple second-round picks. (More on the specifics of trading Beasley and Bamba below.)

Turner checks a lot of the boxes the Lakers need. He’s one of the few 3-and-D centers in the league, which would allow Los Angeles to remain big defensively, with Turner and Anthony Davis patrolling the paint, while also maintaining their spacing offensively (Turner shot 37.3 percent on four 3-point attempts per game last season). There are some within the Lakers that remain skeptical of the way a Turner-Davis frontcourt fits in the playoffs. I understand their skepticism, but I think Turner and Davis are skilled and versatile enough to make the partnership work. Turner took a leap last season and looks to be a legitimate “16-game player.”

Beyond Turner, there aren’t many, if any, difference-making centers available within the confines of what the Lakers could realistically offer (Beasley, Bamba and a first-round pick or multiple seconds).

Now, let’s look at free agency. Some realistic names Los Angeles could sign with its non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2 million) or taxpayer mid-level exception ($5 million):

  • Naz Reid
  • Dwight Powell
  • Xavier Tillman
  • Jock Landale
  • Andre Drummond
  • Bismack Biyombo

Reid, 23, is a hot commodity in NBA circles and would likely cost all or most of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which would trigger the hard cap ($169 million) for the Lakers.

Those aren’t the most appealing players, obviously, but each has shown they can eat innings in the regular season and at least provide spot minutes in the playoffs over the past couple of postseasons. Reid, Powell and Tillman would be clear upgrades over the trio of Bamba, Wenyen Gabriel and Tristan Thompson. Landale, Drummond and Biyombo are bigger bodies that the Lakers could use in certain matchups.

Who are the realistic options for the taxpayer midlevel exception? Is the bridge burned with Brook Lopez? – @batesjai_

Is Brook Lopez a realistic target? – @todii10

What real free-agency options are possible for the Lakers? – @MiguelJosSotoA2


The bridge isn’t burned with Brook Lopez after his rough 2017-18 season in LA, but the fact of the matter is that the Lakers aren’t going to get him for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception ($12.2 million). Lopez has earned more than that. He’d be an ideal fit for the Lakers, but I just don’t see it happening unless he’s set on playing in Los Angeles at a discount.

Here are some realistic targets for the Lakers on the wing (I don’t see them signing a point guard with their MLE):

  • Bruce Brown (player option)
  • Torrey Craig
  • Donte DiVincenzo
  • Dillon Brooks (yes, I know)
  • Jae Crowder
  • Josh Okogie
  • Alec Burks (team option)
  • Max Strus
  • Josh Richardson
  • Damion Lee
  • Terrence Ross
  • Yuta Watanabe
  • Joe Ingles
  • Seth Curry

Brown would almost certainly cost the Lakers’ entire non-taxpayer mid-level exception based on his play during the Nuggets’ Finals run. Several players on this list could certainly earn at least that much as well, since this free agent class is subpar.

In addition to the aforementioned bigs, some additional bigs that aren’t traditional 5s could include P.J. Washington (restricted), Grant Williams (restricted), Jeff Green and Georges Niang. Washington and Williams would likely cost all or most of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, triggering the hard cap. Each big could play the five in super-small lineups – Green fared reasonably well against the Lakers as a center in the Western Conference finals – and would provide the requisite floor-spacing around James and Davis that Los Angeles needs from its frontcourt players.

Can the Lakers use the non-guaranteed contracts of Bamba and Beasley before the new league year to take on a contract (with the new team being able to waive those players)? – @scotty_mac26

Yes to the first part of the question — and no to the second part. (Technically, a player can always be waived, but not in a way that would save money, which is what you mean.)

If the Lakers exercise Beasley’s 16.5 million team option and guarantee Bamba’s 10.3 million contract, they can combine the salaries, along with their 2023 No. 17 draft pick (or other picks), for a draft night trade. The potential issue for a rival team would be that Beasley would be locked into his salary for next season and Bamba would have his contract guaranteed. (The Lakers could guarantee it for less than the full amount, but his outgoing salary would only count for the guaranteed portion).

Therefore, any team taking on the tandem would only be doing so because they either want Beasley and/or Bamba in their rotation, want to salary-dump a player on the Lakers, need the cap flexibility of having two contracts that expire after the 2023-24 season and/or want the draft equity that the Lakers are offering.

If the Lakers made a draft-night deal, it’ll likely feature one of these two players given the Lakers’ needs and their above-market-value contracts. Los Angeles could also trade back in the draft, though with their track record of drafting so well, I’m skeptical of them passing on a mid-first-round pick.

What do you think the Lakers’ walking away point is on the Rui Hachimura contract? $20 million? – @jojobones28

Rui Hachimura is priority 1B for the Lakers behind Austin Reaves. Both players are restricted free agents, meaning the Lakers can match any contract sheet they sign with another team. As I reported last week, the Lakers plan to match any offer sheet Hachimura signs this summer (just like with Reaves).

But is there a walk-away number for Los Angeles? It feels like $20 million annually — something in the four-year, $80 million range — is where things might get a bit dicey. Anything at or below that $20 million threshold means Hachimura is probably back.

The new luxury tax penalties (more on that below) deter teams from spending too far above the first luxury tax band (projected at $162 million). If the Lakers roll back the same group, or flip Beasley, Bamba and/or D’Angelo Russell for bigger pieces, the matter of millions with Hachimura could come into play.

But the expectation is that the Lakers are going to re-sign him, be it agreeing to terms on a new deal themselves or matching another team’s offer sheet.

If the Lakers operate as an over-the-cap team and re-sign Reaves and Rui, then their only free agent spending option is the taxpayer mid-level, correct? Who fits and fills their biggest need at that price? – @ganoble8

With Austin and Rui’s cap hold, how much cap space can the Lakers create will retaining them both? – @Kdubb213


The answer to the first question is nuanced. The Lakers could use their bi-annual or non-taxpayer mid-level exception, but it would hard-cap them at around $169 million – $7 million above the first luxury tax line.

With James, Davis, Max Christie, Vanderbilt and the No. 17 pick, they’re at $97.5 million. Add in Reaves (if he signs for his Arenas-provision Bird Rights maximum of four years, $50.8 million, his base salary for 2023-24 will be $11.3 million) and Hachimura (let’s say his 2023-24 salary is $16 million), and that puts the Lakers at nearly $125 million with just seven players. Now, add in the $12.2 million for the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, and they’re up to just over $137 million before factoring in any cap holds or empty roster charges. To use the full non-taxpayer MLE, they’d probably have to renounce the cap holds of Russell and Lonnie Walker IV.

To your point, the most realistic scenario is Los Angeles using the taxpayer mid-level exception, which is roughly $5 million and up to three years. In that case, I think the Lakers have three holes (in order of importance): starting point guard, rotation wing and backup center. The point guard spot will likely be solved by either re-signing Russell or sign-and-trading him (less likely). Therefore, for about $5 million, some of the top targets could include the aforementioned Craig, DiVincenzo, Crowder, Lee, Tillman and Landale. (Craig possibly priced himself out of this range with his two-way play for Phoenix.)

To the second question, if the Lakers were to sign Hachimura to the aforementioned deal ($16 million annually), keep Reaves on his cap hold ($2.2 million) until signing him last, renounce the rights to Russell and Walker, waive Vanderbilt and Bamba, decline Beasley’s player option and trade away Christie and the No. 17 pick, they could create about $15-20 million in cap space when factoring in their eight empty roster charges (cap holds worth about $7.5 million total). That doesn’t get them much, particularly considering the cost of losing so much depth (Vanderbilt, Russell, etc.).

Are the Lakers more interested in using DLo in a sign and trade or to play next season? – @LakersSupply

My read on the situation is that the Lakers would prefer to use D’Angelo Russell in a sign-and-trade, but I’m not sure the market is there.

Landing Kyrie Irving for Russell is shaping up to be a pipe dream, especially with Dallas unlikely to help Los Angeles out. Fred VanVleet, a Klutch client, looms as a possibility, but adding him would require Toronto to agree to terms with Russell (or take on the Beasley and Bamba contracts).

Where, exactly, is the free-agency and trade market for Russell? I just don’t see it.

The Lakers don’t have a lot of leverage. Scouring the league, how many other teams would use Russell as a starter? If we’re being generous, maybe 10. But that’s with most of those teams starting another point guard (and those backcourts having serious defensive concerns). More realistically, it’s more like a few teams. Are any of those clamoring to pay Russell more than $20 million annually.

If ranking the probabilities for Russell’s future, I’d go: 1) The Lakers re-sign Russell; 2) The Lakers renounce his cap hold and let him walk; 3) The Lakers sign-and-trade him.

The Denver series was a significant blow to his reputation, which was already relatively low in comparison to his 2022-23 salary (over $31 million) and his pedigree (former No. 2 overall pick and an All-Star). Russell is still a useful player and, at worst, a sixth-man-type. But paying him anything more than $18-to-$20 million annually seems unreasonable, based on his clear limitations that were present throughout the Lakers’ playoff run.

The way Golden State and Denver played Vando off the floor concerned me. Are the Lakers concerned about his ineptitude on one side of the floor? – @LetRussBeRuss

Vanderbilt’s offensive limitations are a concern for the Lakers, but they weren’t surprising. The Lakers knew the reservations with Vanderbilt and were ultimately prepared with contingency plans (phasing him out of the rotation, playing Hachimura more, etc.). It helps that Vanderbilt is only making $4.7 million next season. He’s not on a ridiculous contract that would make the Lakers second-guess his place in the rotation or on the roster.

Retaining Hachimura is important as a counterbalance to Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt is a versatile defender and a good rebounder. Hachimura plugs in the holes of Vanderbilt’s game with his finishing, jump-shooting and ability to bang with bigs in the post.

Vanderbilt needs to improve as a cutter and catch-and-shoot threat for next season. He also needs to work on catching and finishing through traffic. But given his defensive prowess and the generic way most teams will approach him in the regular season, he still has a lot of value even if he remains the same player.

Did the Lakers’ second-half run to the Western Conference finals save Darvin Ham’s job? Or do you think he was coming back either way? – @RoemelloV

I don’t think Ham’s job was ever in jeopardy this season, even with the 2-10 start and 13th place seeding through late February. Most coaches are afforded at least two years in a new situation. The Lakers are still paying Frank Vogel after firing him after the 2021-22 season. They aren’t the type of franchise to pay three coaches at the same time.

That said, I think Ham bought himself some security in future seasons with this playoff run. I’d posit that he probably has at least two more seasons, regardless of the results, before the Lakers would consider going in a different direction. For as rough as his rookie coaching season started, Ham went farther than many coaches go in their career, let alone in their first season. He had an impressive year.

What’s your gut feeling on if the Lakers are willing to reach the second apron status? – @bersonwong

Is there a chance that the Lakers will enter the luxury tax? – @PatBevBR


I think the Lakers will try their best to stay under the second apron (projected at approximately $179.5 million – $17.5 million above the luxury tax at $162 million), as there are severe penalties, including the loss of their midlevel exception, a ban on including cash in trades, the inability to accept more salary in a trade than they send out, the inability to sign bought-out players, the inability to aggregate contacts in trades, limitations on trading their picks (including not being able to trade a first-round pick seven years in the future) and harsher tax penalties.

There’s a shrewd argument to be made that the costs outweighs the benefits in this case. Is the difference between, say, Dennis Schröder and a veteran’s minimum point guard worth those penalties? Almost certainly not.

What’s more, I think the Lakers try to avoid the tax entirely, considering they’d be repeaters after going over the tax this season. It’s going to be difficult to do so, given how hefty their cap sheet can become with the free agencies of Reaves, Hachimura and Russell, as well as the decisions with Bamba, Beasley and Vanderbilt. The new tax rules also levy additional penalties on teams above the first apron, but below the second. Teams above the first apron (a projected $169 million) would have a limited taxpayer midlevel exception, can’t take back more salary than they trade out and would also be unable to sign buyout players.

The Lakers have a lot to weigh as free agency approaches in the next few weeks, including, most notably, the benefits and costs of the new CBA.
Doesn't sound like Schroder is coming back after all.

Also, looks like they have to guarantee the contracts of Beasley and/or Bamba to trade them. BOO.



Chances the Lakers pursue Kyrie Irving, No. 17 pick plans and the big question looming over it all

In Part 1 of our Lakers offseason mailbag, we touched on LeBron James’ retirement, free-agency targets, D’Angelo Russell’s future, Rui Hachimura’s potential contract and more.

Here is Part 2, discussing the Lakers’ biggest offseason question, the fate of the No. 17 pick, the odds Kyrie Irving is a Laker, which players are and aren’t likely to return and Max Christie’s sophomore season, among other topics.

Are the Lakers more interested in retaining everyone who played in the playoffs and adding someone like Myles Turner (2023 first-round pick, Bamba, Beasley)? Or gutting their team to go all in for a third star (like DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Kyrie Irving or Trae Young)? — @j_shainn

Aside from LeBron James’ future, this is the Lakers’ question of the summer: Do they pursue a third star, or run it back with the group that made the Western Conference finals?

It’s basically been the question for Los Angeles each offseason, dating back to the summer of 2019 when the Lakers traded for Anthony Davis and tried to land Kawhi Leonard in free agency in an attempt to form a big three of James, Leonard and Davis. It was the question again in 2020 when they traded Danny Green and the No. 28 pick to Oklahoma City for Dennis Schröder — a half-measure that was an attempt to solve their supplementary ballhandling conundrum. Most famously, it was the dilemma in 2021 that led to the misguided Russell Westbrook trade.

The tentative plan for the Lakers is to run it back with as much of this past season’s group as they can possibly afford under the new, stricter collective bargaining agreement. They will only pursue a third star if they deem that player of a certain caliber and believe he can fit next to James and Davis.

I think they run it back, or try to upgrade the point guard/lead ballhandler spot (Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, Trae Young, etc.).

What’s the realistic percentage that Kyrie Irving is a Laker this summer? — @iKeepGrindin

This is a difficult question to answer, but if I had to peg a percentage, I’d go low — somewhere in the 10 to 15 percent range. It’s certainly possible, but there are so many factors that have to go in the Lakers’ favor for them to land Irving.

Ideally, they acquire him via sign-and-trade with Dallas. But that would require the Mavericks to play ball — and The Athletic’s Tim Cato reported Dallas is unlikely to do so. That also would hard-cap the Lakers, forcing them to make difficult decisions and likely resulting in them losing several key players from last season’s team (Schröder, Lonnie Walker IV and possibly Hachimura).

More realistically, Irving would have to take a substantial discount to sign with the Lakers in free agency, something he’s shown no willingness to do yet. To even make that a possibility, Los Angeles must willingly gut its depth to create cap space. In that scenario, the Lakers’ roster would probably be composed of James, Davis, Irving, Austin Reaves, a taxpayer mid-level exception signing and a bunch of minimum contracts.

Irving to Los Angeles remains a theoretical possibility until he signs a multiyear deal with Dallas or another team. (Even then, rumors of Irving to the Lakers could pop back up around the 2024 trade deadline if that partnership doesn’t work out.) But as I reported back in mid-March, all indications from the Lakers are that Irving to Los Angeles is nothing more than a pipe dream.

The Lakers already tried the three-star approach and failed. While Irving is a much better player than Westbrook and a much better fit next to James and Davis, Los Angeles once again would be risking its future by prioritizing star power over depth and continuity. Because of James’ affinity for Irving, and his potential leverage this offseason due to the uncertainty regarding his return, there’s a chance the Lakers cave and acquire Irving via trade or free agency. But there are several hurdles that make it unrealistic unless Irving is willing to get his hands dirty and force his way to Los Angeles.

How likely is signing (D’Angelo Russell) in the $22-$24 million range annually on a two-year contract? Is it a win-win for both sides heading into next season if it’s done as early as possible? — @yar07lav

Your proposal is a reasonable outcome for both sides, as it aligns Russell’s contract with the timetables of James (signed through 2024 with a player option for 2025) and Davis (signed through 2024 with an early termination option for 2025, though he becomes extension eligible in August).

That said, I think that’s a slight overpay for Russell considering his inconsistency in the playoffs and the current free-agent market. Where is the team that’s going to swoop in and compete with the Lakers’ offer? I think Los Angeles can squeeze Russell closer to the $18 million to $20 million range annually.

Every dollar is going to matter with the new CBA increasing the penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax. The difference between Russell at $18 million and Russell at $25 million annually could be consequential. If Russell performed better in the postseason, this would be a different conversation. But on multiple nights, he was the Lakers’ fifth- or sixth-best player behind James, Davis, Reaves, Hachimura and sometimes even Schröder. It’s hard to justify paying him anything over $20 million annually.

Do you think that the Lakers should keep or trade the No. 17 pick? What do you think they’re leaning towards? — @dagger112233

Are the Lakers entertaining a trade involving the No. 17 pick? — @phat24

What do you think they do with the 17th pick? — @is_it_right


The most likely outcome is the Lakers keeping the No. 17 pick, according to multiple team sources not authorized to speak publicly. But that could change if the right trade becomes available — including a team making an enticing offer for the Lakers to trade back later in the draft. I think the right trade would involve using the pick to secure a starting-level upgrade available in a trade on draft night or later this offseason — like, say, Myles Turner in Indiana, who I discussed in Part 1 of this mailbag.

However, given the impressive track record of Lakers assistant general manager and co-owner Jesse Buss and the organization’s scouting department, the Lakers have a chance to hit at least a double at that stage of the draft. Whoever they draft could eventually be more valuable on the trade market than the average No. 17 pick.

Los Angeles will strike if there is an obvious and appealing offer, but they haven’t retained one of their own first-round picks since 2018 (Mo Wagner at No. 25) or had a top-17 pick since 2017. Their last non-lottery pick in the teens was Javaris Crittenton at No. 19 in 2007. This is a chance to find a player who can help both now and in the future.

Which players are least likely to be retained? — @jrsmithrange

It’s tough to say because there are so many different ways the Lakers’ offseason could play out.

I think James ($46.9 million), Davis ($40.6 million), Reaves (about $12.5 million if he signs for the Arenas Provision max), Hachimura ($15 to $18 million), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4.7 million) and Christie ($1.7 million) are likely on next season’s roster. Beyond that, it gets murky.

The two players it’s appearing won’t be back are Mo Bamba and Malik Beasley, if only because of their contracts. With the aforementioned six names expected to return, the Lakers would be at around $120 million to $125 million — depending on the salary of Hachimura — in salary before factoring in cap holds or empty roster charges. Add Bamba’s $10.3 million non-guaranteed salary and Beasley’s $16.5 million team option, and they’re pushing $150-plus million with just eight players — and that’s before including free agents like Russell, Schröder or Walker.

Russell is more likely than not to be back, but his return is not a lock. The Lakers are going to explore their options and upgrade if it makes sense.

Los Angeles would like to keep Schröder, but they have his non-Bird rights, meaning the most they can offer him in free agency is a projected $3.8 million in his first year unless they’re willing to use one of their midlevel exceptions (most likely the taxpayer midlevel exception, which is projected to be about $5 million annually for a maximum of three years).

I suspect Walker won’t be back because he can parlay his late-postseason success into a larger role elsewhere. With Reaves’ emergence, and the potential returns of Russell and Schröder, Walker is, at best, fourth in the backcourt pecking order. I think there will be suitors offering more guaranteed minutes and shots.

Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel and Tristan Thompson all are veteran-minimum candidates who could be retained at a similar price should the Lakers choose to pursue them. Shaq Harrison will be waived (he has a $2.4 million non-guaranteed contract for next season).

Will Dennis Schröder come back? — @MulukenGuey

I think the Schröder situation is worth diving into in more detail.

The question for the Lakers is, essentially, what’s their greatest need this offseason?

Again, for them to realistically keep Schröder, they’d need to use one of their mid-level exceptions (either the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for up to a projected $12.2 million or the taxpayer mid-level exception for up to a projected $5.0 million). If they chose the former option, spending up to $12.2 million on Schröder, that would likely mean using him to replace Russell and saving meaningful salary on their cap sheet.

The downside to using an exception on Schröder is it costs the Lakers a valuable roster-building resource. They have additional needs, like another quality wing or a better backup center, and limited means to address them.

My guess would be they prefer another rotation-caliber wing — a player more reliable than Walker, Brown or Beasley. That was one of the weak spots in the rotation in the playoffs. Los Angeles isn’t oozing in wing talent the way more modernized teams like Boston, Denver, Golden State and the Clippers are. I expect the Lakers to try to address that with a trade and/or one of their exceptions.

Perhaps the Lakers, in an effort to run the group back as much as possible, strongly value Schröder’s performance in the 2023 playoffs and decide to bring him back. But they already have a solid foundation at point guard with James and the likely returns of Reaves and Russell (or his replacement). Schröder is probably expendable if it means addressing the team’s needs on the wing or the frontcourt.

How can the Lakers get more shooting on this team? The ability to score and avoid long droughts was the main difference between them and Denver. — @AvalloneCharlie

I think these are technically two different questions, though shooting is relevant in both instances.

The Lakers can get more shooting by signing or trading for it, as well as from internal improvement. I think Reaves, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, Russell and Christie all are young enough that they can shoot better and more consistently. Davis has been long overdue for positive regression with his jumper. James, too, after last season.

A top priority for the Lakers next season is 3-point shooting. With James and Davis as the stars, there always will be a limit to the volume of attempts they get up. The bread and butter of the offense will be James’ downhill attacks and Davis’ interior dominance, but a better cast of shooters would open up the paint even more and create better shots as a consequence.

As for the offense itself, I don’t think shooting is the only thing holding it back. That’s a big factor — arguably the biggest — but I think the Lakers’ stagnation, particularly down the stretch of games, was a significant issue. The Davis-less groups struggled to generate consistent offense when he was off the floor in the playoffs. James didn’t have his typical burst after returning from his foot injury. The Lakers’ offense did them in against Denver — and nearly cost them the Golden State series.

The Lakers need to implement more shooting with all three positional archetypes: bigs, wings and guards. They can’t afford to maintain the status quo offensively.

Is Darvin Ham gonna stop his three-guard lineups next season? — @DoingTheDada

It likely depends on how next season’s roster is constructed. For as much flak as Ham received from the fan base for his small lineups, the Lakers’ trio of Russell, Reaves and Schröder was quite effective together. The Lakers outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions with those three on the floor together in the playoffs, according to Cleaning the Glass. They were even more dominant in the regular season, outscoring opponents by 46.2 points per 100 possessions over a small sample of 188 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

Looking at the playoffs, the true barometer, Los Angeles’ lineups with Walker as one of the three guards were also fairly successful. Replace Russell with Walker and the group is even better (plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass). Walker in Reaves’ place was similarly useful (plus-3.0 points per 100 possessions).

Still, the Lakers’ three-guard configurations should be deployed only in certain matchups. They routinely suffered earlier in the season, even in the playoffs at times, because of mismatches after switches and larger opponents crashing the offensive glass against their guards.

The front office needs to be intentional about how they build the roster, giving Ham fewer small-guard options. Ham, in learning from last season, also can realize the self-imposed limitations of those lineups and adjust, as well.

How big of a second-year jump do you expect Max Christie to take next season? — @eyyjack

I expect Christie to take a considerable jump in his sophomore season. I think he should’ve been given a look, if only briefly, in the playoffs. He appeared to be a rotation-caliber player in January when he was the team’s eighth man for a few weeks. Over that stretch from Jan. 6 through Jan. 25, Christie averaged only 5.3 points and 2.3 rebounds but shot 52.5 percent overall and 47.6 percent on 3s.

His defense stood out all the way back to Las Vegas Summer League. He uses his hands well, he’s almost always in a proper stance, and he has a high basketball IQ from both a team and individual perspective. His rebounding is impressive for someone his size and frame. The one glaring weakness in his game was his strength, but Christie has gradually worked on his body throughout the season.

Christie, like Reaves in his rookie season, needs to play with greater confidence and assertiveness offensively. He needs to shoot when open. There were times he was clearly second-guessing himself or making the extra pass when he should’ve taken a shot.

There’s a chance that Christie works his way into the Lakers’ rotation permanently next season, potentially as the team’s eighth or ninth man, depending on the roster makeup. If he can knock down 3s at an above-league-average rate and continue to bulk up to better handle wings defensively, he’ll have an important role on next season’s team.
 


Chances the Lakers pursue Kyrie Irving, No. 17 pick plans and the big question looming over it all

In Part 1 of our Lakers offseason mailbag, we touched on LeBron James’ retirement, free-agency targets, D’Angelo Russell’s future, Rui Hachimura’s potential contract and more.

Here is Part 2, discussing the Lakers’ biggest offseason question, the fate of the No. 17 pick, the odds Kyrie Irving is a Laker, which players are and aren’t likely to return and Max Christie’s sophomore season, among other topics.

Are the Lakers more interested in retaining everyone who played in the playoffs and adding someone like Myles Turner (2023 first-round pick, Bamba, Beasley)? Or gutting their team to go all in for a third star (like DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, Kyrie Irving or Trae Young)? — @j_shainn

Aside from LeBron James’ future, this is the Lakers’ question of the summer: Do they pursue a third star, or run it back with the group that made the Western Conference finals?

It’s basically been the question for Los Angeles each offseason, dating back to the summer of 2019 when the Lakers traded for Anthony Davis and tried to land Kawhi Leonard in free agency in an attempt to form a big three of James, Leonard and Davis. It was the question again in 2020 when they traded Danny Green and the No. 28 pick to Oklahoma City for Dennis Schröder — a half-measure that was an attempt to solve their supplementary ballhandling conundrum. Most famously, it was the dilemma in 2021 that led to the misguided Russell Westbrook trade.

The tentative plan for the Lakers is to run it back with as much of this past season’s group as they can possibly afford under the new, stricter collective bargaining agreement. They will only pursue a third star if they deem that player of a certain caliber and believe he can fit next to James and Davis.

I think they run it back, or try to upgrade the point guard/lead ballhandler spot (Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, Trae Young, etc.).

What’s the realistic percentage that Kyrie Irving is a Laker this summer? — @iKeepGrindin

This is a difficult question to answer, but if I had to peg a percentage, I’d go low — somewhere in the 10 to 15 percent range. It’s certainly possible, but there are so many factors that have to go in the Lakers’ favor for them to land Irving.

Ideally, they acquire him via sign-and-trade with Dallas. But that would require the Mavericks to play ball — and The Athletic’s Tim Cato reported Dallas is unlikely to do so. That also would hard-cap the Lakers, forcing them to make difficult decisions and likely resulting in them losing several key players from last season’s team (Schröder, Lonnie Walker IV and possibly Hachimura).

More realistically, Irving would have to take a substantial discount to sign with the Lakers in free agency, something he’s shown no willingness to do yet. To even make that a possibility, Los Angeles must willingly gut its depth to create cap space. In that scenario, the Lakers’ roster would probably be composed of James, Davis, Irving, Austin Reaves, a taxpayer mid-level exception signing and a bunch of minimum contracts.

Irving to Los Angeles remains a theoretical possibility until he signs a multiyear deal with Dallas or another team. (Even then, rumors of Irving to the Lakers could pop back up around the 2024 trade deadline if that partnership doesn’t work out.) But as I reported back in mid-March, all indications from the Lakers are that Irving to Los Angeles is nothing more than a pipe dream.

The Lakers already tried the three-star approach and failed. While Irving is a much better player than Westbrook and a much better fit next to James and Davis, Los Angeles once again would be risking its future by prioritizing star power over depth and continuity. Because of James’ affinity for Irving, and his potential leverage this offseason due to the uncertainty regarding his return, there’s a chance the Lakers cave and acquire Irving via trade or free agency. But there are several hurdles that make it unrealistic unless Irving is willing to get his hands dirty and force his way to Los Angeles.

How likely is signing (D’Angelo Russell) in the $22-$24 million range annually on a two-year contract? Is it a win-win for both sides heading into next season if it’s done as early as possible? — @yar07lav

Your proposal is a reasonable outcome for both sides, as it aligns Russell’s contract with the timetables of James (signed through 2024 with a player option for 2025) and Davis (signed through 2024 with an early termination option for 2025, though he becomes extension eligible in August).

That said, I think that’s a slight overpay for Russell considering his inconsistency in the playoffs and the current free-agent market. Where is the team that’s going to swoop in and compete with the Lakers’ offer? I think Los Angeles can squeeze Russell closer to the $18 million to $20 million range annually.

Every dollar is going to matter with the new CBA increasing the penalties for teams that exceed the luxury tax. The difference between Russell at $18 million and Russell at $25 million annually could be consequential. If Russell performed better in the postseason, this would be a different conversation. But on multiple nights, he was the Lakers’ fifth- or sixth-best player behind James, Davis, Reaves, Hachimura and sometimes even Schröder. It’s hard to justify paying him anything over $20 million annually.

Do you think that the Lakers should keep or trade the No. 17 pick? What do you think they’re leaning towards? — @dagger112233

Are the Lakers entertaining a trade involving the No. 17 pick? — @phat24

What do you think they do with the 17th pick? — @is_it_right


The most likely outcome is the Lakers keeping the No. 17 pick, according to multiple team sources not authorized to speak publicly. But that could change if the right trade becomes available — including a team making an enticing offer for the Lakers to trade back later in the draft. I think the right trade would involve using the pick to secure a starting-level upgrade available in a trade on draft night or later this offseason — like, say, Myles Turner in Indiana, who I discussed in Part 1 of this mailbag.

However, given the impressive track record of Lakers assistant general manager and co-owner Jesse Buss and the organization’s scouting department, the Lakers have a chance to hit at least a double at that stage of the draft. Whoever they draft could eventually be more valuable on the trade market than the average No. 17 pick.

Los Angeles will strike if there is an obvious and appealing offer, but they haven’t retained one of their own first-round picks since 2018 (Mo Wagner at No. 25) or had a top-17 pick since 2017. Their last non-lottery pick in the teens was Javaris Crittenton at No. 19 in 2007. This is a chance to find a player who can help both now and in the future.

Which players are least likely to be retained? — @jrsmithrange

It’s tough to say because there are so many different ways the Lakers’ offseason could play out.

I think James ($46.9 million), Davis ($40.6 million), Reaves (about $12.5 million if he signs for the Arenas Provision max), Hachimura ($15 to $18 million), Jarred Vanderbilt ($4.7 million) and Christie ($1.7 million) are likely on next season’s roster. Beyond that, it gets murky.

The two players it’s appearing won’t be back are Mo Bamba and Malik Beasley, if only because of their contracts. With the aforementioned six names expected to return, the Lakers would be at around $120 million to $125 million — depending on the salary of Hachimura — in salary before factoring in cap holds or empty roster charges. Add Bamba’s $10.3 million non-guaranteed salary and Beasley’s $16.5 million team option, and they’re pushing $150-plus million with just eight players — and that’s before including free agents like Russell, Schröder or Walker.

Russell is more likely than not to be back, but his return is not a lock. The Lakers are going to explore their options and upgrade if it makes sense.

Los Angeles would like to keep Schröder, but they have his non-Bird rights, meaning the most they can offer him in free agency is a projected $3.8 million in his first year unless they’re willing to use one of their midlevel exceptions (most likely the taxpayer midlevel exception, which is projected to be about $5 million annually for a maximum of three years).

I suspect Walker won’t be back because he can parlay his late-postseason success into a larger role elsewhere. With Reaves’ emergence, and the potential returns of Russell and Schröder, Walker is, at best, fourth in the backcourt pecking order. I think there will be suitors offering more guaranteed minutes and shots.

Troy Brown Jr., Wenyen Gabriel and Tristan Thompson all are veteran-minimum candidates who could be retained at a similar price should the Lakers choose to pursue them. Shaq Harrison will be waived (he has a $2.4 million non-guaranteed contract for next season).

Will Dennis Schröder come back? — @MulukenGuey

I think the Schröder situation is worth diving into in more detail.

The question for the Lakers is, essentially, what’s their greatest need this offseason?

Again, for them to realistically keep Schröder, they’d need to use one of their mid-level exceptions (either the non-taxpayer mid-level exception for up to a projected $12.2 million or the taxpayer mid-level exception for up to a projected $5.0 million). If they chose the former option, spending up to $12.2 million on Schröder, that would likely mean using him to replace Russell and saving meaningful salary on their cap sheet.

The downside to using an exception on Schröder is it costs the Lakers a valuable roster-building resource. They have additional needs, like another quality wing or a better backup center, and limited means to address them.

My guess would be they prefer another rotation-caliber wing — a player more reliable than Walker, Brown or Beasley. That was one of the weak spots in the rotation in the playoffs. Los Angeles isn’t oozing in wing talent the way more modernized teams like Boston, Denver, Golden State and the Clippers are. I expect the Lakers to try to address that with a trade and/or one of their exceptions.

Perhaps the Lakers, in an effort to run the group back as much as possible, strongly value Schröder’s performance in the 2023 playoffs and decide to bring him back. But they already have a solid foundation at point guard with James and the likely returns of Reaves and Russell (or his replacement). Schröder is probably expendable if it means addressing the team’s needs on the wing or the frontcourt.

How can the Lakers get more shooting on this team? The ability to score and avoid long droughts was the main difference between them and Denver. — @AvalloneCharlie

I think these are technically two different questions, though shooting is relevant in both instances.

The Lakers can get more shooting by signing or trading for it, as well as from internal improvement. I think Reaves, Hachimura, Vanderbilt, Russell and Christie all are young enough that they can shoot better and more consistently. Davis has been long overdue for positive regression with his jumper. James, too, after last season.

A top priority for the Lakers next season is 3-point shooting. With James and Davis as the stars, there always will be a limit to the volume of attempts they get up. The bread and butter of the offense will be James’ downhill attacks and Davis’ interior dominance, but a better cast of shooters would open up the paint even more and create better shots as a consequence.

As for the offense itself, I don’t think shooting is the only thing holding it back. That’s a big factor — arguably the biggest — but I think the Lakers’ stagnation, particularly down the stretch of games, was a significant issue. The Davis-less groups struggled to generate consistent offense when he was off the floor in the playoffs. James didn’t have his typical burst after returning from his foot injury. The Lakers’ offense did them in against Denver — and nearly cost them the Golden State series.

The Lakers need to implement more shooting with all three positional archetypes: bigs, wings and guards. They can’t afford to maintain the status quo offensively.

Is Darvin Ham gonna stop his three-guard lineups next season? — @DoingTheDada

It likely depends on how next season’s roster is constructed. For as much flak as Ham received from the fan base for his small lineups, the Lakers’ trio of Russell, Reaves and Schröder was quite effective together. The Lakers outscored opponents by 6.7 points per 100 possessions with those three on the floor together in the playoffs, according to Cleaning the Glass. They were even more dominant in the regular season, outscoring opponents by 46.2 points per 100 possessions over a small sample of 188 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

Looking at the playoffs, the true barometer, Los Angeles’ lineups with Walker as one of the three guards were also fairly successful. Replace Russell with Walker and the group is even better (plus-8.4 points per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass). Walker in Reaves’ place was similarly useful (plus-3.0 points per 100 possessions).

Still, the Lakers’ three-guard configurations should be deployed only in certain matchups. They routinely suffered earlier in the season, even in the playoffs at times, because of mismatches after switches and larger opponents crashing the offensive glass against their guards.

The front office needs to be intentional about how they build the roster, giving Ham fewer small-guard options. Ham, in learning from last season, also can realize the self-imposed limitations of those lineups and adjust, as well.

How big of a second-year jump do you expect Max Christie to take next season? — @eyyjack

I expect Christie to take a considerable jump in his sophomore season. I think he should’ve been given a look, if only briefly, in the playoffs. He appeared to be a rotation-caliber player in January when he was the team’s eighth man for a few weeks. Over that stretch from Jan. 6 through Jan. 25, Christie averaged only 5.3 points and 2.3 rebounds but shot 52.5 percent overall and 47.6 percent on 3s.

His defense stood out all the way back to Las Vegas Summer League. He uses his hands well, he’s almost always in a proper stance, and he has a high basketball IQ from both a team and individual perspective. His rebounding is impressive for someone his size and frame. The one glaring weakness in his game was his strength, but Christie has gradually worked on his body throughout the season.

Christie, like Reaves in his rookie season, needs to play with greater confidence and assertiveness offensively. He needs to shoot when open. There were times he was clearly second-guessing himself or making the extra pass when he should’ve taken a shot.

There’s a chance that Christie works his way into the Lakers’ rotation permanently next season, potentially as the team’s eighth or ninth man, depending on the roster makeup. If he can knock down 3s at an above-league-average rate and continue to bulk up to better handle wings defensively, he’ll have an important role on next season’s team.

Buha is such a hack.
 
😂😂😂

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Lakers bucks nuggets. 3 of the last 4 title winners all “bigger stronger faster”


Get size. That’s our only hope.

6’5” and above
Throw Toronto on that list. What have I been saying since the dawn of man and since I joined NT in 2019 :lol:

However, the "championship formula" is rocket science. They think 3-point chucking guards run the league LOL
 
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