2014 NBA Draft Thread

[champcruthik]

Letting it be known I ride for Kendall Williams and Elfrid Payton. Would take both over Tyler Ennis, for value and ceiling.

 

[CP1708]

Is Randle a little David Westish?

Don't think he has the midrange and pick and pop game West does.

No, of course not, but body type wise, he seems more West than Zbo to me.

West got that elite 15 footer.

 

[awwsome]

Free throw shooting is very much an indicator of perimeter shooting.

How so when there all multiple examples of the opposite listed right in this thread?

Is shooting 69% on 2 FT's a game more of an indicator than shooting 43% from the perimeter on 4 a game?

 

[osh kosh bosh]

How so when there all multiple examples of the opposite listed right in this thread?

Is shooting 69% on 2 FT's a game more of an indicator than shooting 43% from the perimeter on 4 a game?

This isnt an opinion

I think it was from the hoopanaylyst.com, a numbers guy who uses statistics to project the NBA drat. (I think he was the guy that had Jermey Lin as a draft sleeper)

im just telling you what statistical models have found, FT% correlates well to future NBA 3P%.

Its not a hard and fast rule, for me its an eyes + numbers thing.


If you see a guy whos making threes in college, but has poor shooting fundamentals and/or poor mechanics AND a bad FT% I'm not ignoring that information.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

all im saying is

There is RISK in projecting Zach LaVine as a great NBA 3 point shooter, just as there was risk for Tim Hardaway JR (Who's 3P% fluctuated wildly throughout his college career) and there is risk projecting that for Wayne Selden.

dont underestimate it.

 

[buc em]

Son. The Sixers could come out of this draft with Wiggins/Jabari and Vonleh/Randle/Gordon to pair with MCW and Noel.

AND so much cap room that they're actually going to have to pay a fine this year for being under the limit.

 

[rook]

Son. The Sixers could come out of this draft with Wiggins/Jabari and Vonleh/Randle/Gordon to pair with MCW and Noel.

AND so much cap room that they're actually going to have to pay a fine this year for being under the limit.

I wish we could draft Lavine somehow too. Dude could be a monster at SG next to MCW

 

[worldbeefreeg]

Not many rookies shoot .37 percent from three, that's extremely good. His shot is so much better than it was last year (didn't like him at Mich at all). THJr will undoubtedly be an elite shooter in this league.

 

[ricardo malta]

Not many rookies shoot .37 percent from three, that's extremely good. His shot is so much better than it was last year (didn't like him at Mich at all). THJr will undoubtedly be an elite shooter in this league.

Have OKB tell it and he's taking Stauskas 10 times out of 10 over Hardaway Jr.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Not many rookies shoot .37 percent from three, that's extremely good. His shot is so much better than it was last year (didn't like him at Mich at all). THJr will undoubtedly be an elite shooter in this league.

undoubtedly?

this is Results based thinking, to act like that was clear at draft time is 20/20 hindsight.

SPLIT FGM FGA FG% PTS/SHOT
'10-'11 Catch and Shoot 55 156 35.3% 1.032
'11-'12 Catch and Shoot 40 141 28.4% 0.816
'12-'13 Catch and Shoot 55 139 39.6% 1.173
'10-'11 Pull-Up Jumper 18 63 28.6% 0.683
'11-'12 Pull-Up Jumper 37 83 44.6% 1.012
'12-'13 Pull-Up Jumper 30 98 30.6% 0.684
'10-'11 Runners and Around Rim 47 77 61% 1.311
'11-'12 Runners and Around Rim 49 102 48% 0.99
'12-'13 Runners and Around Rim 49 105 46.7% 0.942


Tim Hardaway JR jumpshot has been inconsistent in the past.

He has good mechanics, and looks like he has cleaned up is shot selection but to act like there shouldn't be any doubt or that there wasnt is foolish.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Like I said, there is risk in projecting 3PT shooters who shoot poorly from the line and have unorthodox mechanics.


you can heed my warning or not.

 

[アミーゴ]

undoubtedly?

this is Results based thinking, to act like that was clear at draft time is 20/20 hindsight.

SPLIT FGM FGA FG% PTS/SHOT
'10-'11 Catch and Shoot 55 156 35.3% 1.032
'11-'12 Catch and Shoot 40 141 28.4% 0.816
'12-'13 Catch and Shoot 55 139 39.6% 1.173
'10-'11 Pull-Up Jumper 18 63 28.6% 0.683
'11-'12 Pull-Up Jumper 37 83 44.6% 1.012
'12-'13 Pull-Up Jumper 30 98 30.6% 0.684
'10-'11 Runners and Around Rim 47 77 61% 1.311
'11-'12 Runners and Around Rim 49 102 48% 0.99
'12-'13 Runners and Around Rim 49 105 46.7% 0.942


Tim Hardaway JR jumpshot has been inconsistent in the past.

He has good mechanics, and looks like he has cleaned up is shot selection but to act like there shouldn't be any doubt or that there wasnt is foolish.

That alone turns a decent shooter into a good shooter.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

That alone turns a decent shooter into a good shooter.

sure, but the assumption that he would do that is where risk comes into play.

were talking about projection, each leap you ask a prospect to make just increases the variability of success.


All im saying is just writing Zach Lavine as an elite shooter, is bad process for evaluating a prospect. you have to take all the risk factors into account.

 

[アミーゴ]

sure, but the assumption that he would do that is where risk comes into play.

I'm not getting into the rest (since I wasn't a part of it), but if a prospect can just do that alone in his first year, I'd be pretty happy if I were a GM.

 

[dacomeup]

I'm not getting into the rest (since I wasn't a part of it), but if a prospect can just do that alone in his first year, I'd be pretty happy if I were a GM.

Completely different than saying he's undoubtedly going to be an elite shooter. And I've watched him countless times this year and like what he's done. Just not as sure fire as AMP proclaimed.

 

[wildkycat]

James Young from 3: 33%
Brad Beal from 3 at Florida: 34%

Young can certainly become a reliable shooter.

 

[アミーゴ]

Completely different than saying he's undoubtedly going to be an elite shooter. And I've watched him countless times this year and like what he's done. Just not as sure fire as AMP proclaimed.

I don't even know who u guys are talking about. I'm saying in general, if a decent shooter can cut down on his poor shots, he will undoubtedly be a good shooter in the league.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

I don't even know who u guys are talking about. I'm saying in general, if a decent shooter can cut down on his poor shots, he will undoubtedly be a good shooter in the league.

for people not understanding the argument.

-some statistical draft projection models have found that FT% has some correlation towards NBA 3P%
- basically a guy might hit 40% from three, but shoot sub 70% from the line, its tells you that they might not translate to the NBA three point line.
-"correlation" does not mean hard and fast rule.

but guys like

Zach LaVine
James Young
Wayne Selden

projecting them to be high end nba shooters is a bigger stretch than you think.

 

[pmatic]

Free throw shooting is very much an indicator of perimeter shooting.

How so when there all multiple examples of the opposite listed right in this thread?

Is shooting 69% on 2 FT's a game more of an indicator than shooting 43% from the perimeter on 4 a game?

In LaVine's case, I would like to see a bigger sample size because I'm not convinced he is going to carry his three point shooting into the league whenever he decides to make the jump with that funky looking form.

I'll be honest and say I hadn't checked his free throw shooting lately, but it was hovering in the low-mid 60s for a good portion of the season which made me cautious to begin with.

I tend to label players elite shooters if they are great at the the field (particularity from three) and free throw line (ex: Dirk, Curry, Durant, Jesus, Calderon, Nash, Korver).

 

[アミーゴ]

for people not understanding the argument.

-some statistical draft projection models have found that FT% has some correlation towards NBA 3P%
- basically a guy might hit 40% from three, but shoot sub 70% from the line, its tells you that they might not translate to the NBA three point line.
-"correlation" does not mean hard and fast rule.

but guys like

Zach LaVine
James Young
Wayne Selden

projecting them to be high end nba shooters is a bigger stretch than you think.

I completely understand the argument. I was just agreeing with you that there are other things to take into consideration.

 

[awwsome]

Nobody said LaVine was going to be an elite shooter, just that he can shoot

I don't care how funky his shot looks, he's shooting 43% on 4 attempts a game, that's not a fluke.

Nobody in here said James Young or Wayne Selden project to be elite shooters

 

[champcruthik]

Nobody said LaVine was going to be an elite shooter, just that he can shoot

I don't care how funky his shot looks, he's shooting 43% on 4 attempts a game, that's not a fluke.

Nobody in here said James Young or Wayne Selden project to be elite shooters

Truth. LaVine is a vaunted prospect for more than his outside jumper. First step, explosiveness, athleticism, length.

Selden beyond shooting is a bull. Better ball handler and passer than most 3's in the NBA.

Nobody compared James Young to Michael Redd. I'm very cool on him at the next level and have said repeatedly I'd take Clarkson, LaVine, Semaj, and Selden over him. Even Payton and Kendall Williams.

 

[pmatic]

Nobody said LaVine was going to be an elite shooter, just that he can shoot

I don't care how funky his shot looks, he's shooting 43% on 4 attempts a game, that's not a fluke.

Nobody in here said James Young or Wayne Selden project to be elite shooters

The elite part of my post was directed towards amp. I should have made that clearer.

And I'm not saying LaVine's three point shooting is a fluke as much as I am just very cautious about it.

 

[champcruthik]

The elite part of my post was directed towards amp. I should have made that clearer.

And I'm not saying LaVine's three point shooting is a fluke as much as I am just very cautious about it.

Who do you and OKB like in the 2014 class?

Because it's barer than most basketball fans think after Embiid, Bari, Ender, Exum, Vonleh, Randle, Smart.

8-30 is somewhat of a crapshoot depending on preference. Trez, Hood, Saric. So on and so forth.

 

[アミーゴ]

We know OKB only likes the Canadians, come on now.