Chad Ford's final 2014 mock
It's draft day, baby!
After 364 days of scouting, physicals, interviews, workouts and thousands of hours of watching tape and endless debates on the pros and cons of certain players in the draft ... we are finally here.
Now, I only wish NBA front offices were. Believe it or not, teams are still firming up their draft boards, still arguing and, of course, still fielding trade calls. Some teams won't make up their minds until the night of the draft.
I've spent dozens of hours on the phone the past few days trying to sift through the flak to get an accurate read on what's happening. Here's my best stab on how the draft might play out tonight. (I will continue to update this mock throughout the day as we receive new intel.)
Remember: this is not a ranking the top players -- that's my Big Board. It's a reporting tool to convey our latest intel from NBA scouts and GMs on what each time might do in the draft.
Here we go:
1. Cleveland Cavaliers - Andrew Wiggins
This pick has shifted numerous times for me, but it ends up as Wiggins. On Wednesday, Jeff Goodman and I reported that owner Dan Gilbert was blown away with the Wiggins workout in Cleveland and was leaning in that direction. Gilbert has denied there is a rift between him and his front office, but the signals are starting to point to Wiggins at No. 1 if the Cavs keep the pick.
The question, however, is if they keep the pick. Multiple teams, including the Sixers, Magic, Jazz and Celtics are trying to get up to No. 1. As of Wednesday night the Magic's offer of Arron Afflalo, plus picks No. 4 and No. 12, was the most enticing of the offers. The Cavs expect the offers to sweeten on draft day.
If the offer gets good enough, look for the Cavs to take it, move down a few spots, take Joel Embiid and walk away with several other assets as they make their move to lure LeBron back to Cleveland this summer.
2. Milwaukee Bucks - Jabari Parker
The Bucks always have had a slight preference for Parker. They need the scoring, the maturity in the locker room, and frankly, they just need to get this pick right, and Parker is the surest thing in the draft. If Parker falls to them here they will be thrilled. I can't imagine they'll pass on him. He wants to be in Milwaukee and the Bucks want him there. They haven't been as high on Wiggins. However, Wiggins' strong workouts in Santa Barbara last week and in Milwaukee this week have cemented their resolve to take Wiggins if the Cavs take Parker.
The Bucks also have a strong affinity for Dante Exum, and he's still in the picture at No. 2. Exum really wants to be in Milwaukee and that means a lot to the Bucks. But the chances of Exum going No. 2 seem to have decreased quite a bit. The Bucks believe in him, but they think Wiggins has an even higher ceiling.
The Bucks also are getting their fair share of trade offers. The Sixers, Magic and Jazz all called them as well, offering similar packages. But it looks unlikely the Bucks are going to trade this pick. They need a franchise player and don't feel they'll get one later in the draft. Look for the Bucks to be very active, however, in acquiring a second first-round pick -- preferably a lottery pick.
3. Philadelphia 76ers - Dante Exum
There have been rumblings that the Sixers are seriously considering drafting Joel Embiid there. However, from what I can gather, this is likely a smokescreen to entice the Cavs to deal with them. Everyone believes that if the Cavs move down in the draft, it will be to land Embiid. While the Sixers like him, I think they're reluctant to commit to that timetable.
It sounds like Exum is now the heavy favorite there. He obviously plays the same position as Rookie of the Year Michael Carter-Williams. However, the Sixers feel the two can play together and they continue to explore Carter-Williams trades that would land them a third pick in the top 10. The Lakers have strong interest in a package of Carter-Williams and Thaddeus Young for the No. 7 pick and Steve Nash. The Kings also have interest in a Carter-Williams deal.
Vonleh is a darkhorse here. They need a big who spreads the floor and helps Noel on the defensive end. Vonleh is especially appealing as there aren't great bigs available to them at the No. 10 pick. If the Sixers can't get another pick in the Nos. 5-8 range, they could decide to go ahead and take Vonleh here.
4. Orlando Magic - Noah Vonleh
The Magic have also been trying to both move up and get another lottery pick. They've offered Nos. 4 and 12 and Afflalo to the Cavs and Bucks, but so far, have no takers.
The Magic also are taking a long look at Embiid. They know they need an athletic rim protector. Nikola Vucevic has been great, but he doesn't provide the defense they seek in the middle. But there is concern in Orlando that Embiid's timetable won't work with what they are trying to build. If he misses the season and then essentially has his rookie year in 2015-16, they can't really expect him to start helping until 2016 at the earliest.
The Magic are also very keen on Exum, and I'm told they would likely select him if he's on the board. If he's gone and Embiid seems like too much of a risk, then it comes down to Vonleh and Marcus Smart.
Vonleh has intrigued them ever since a stellar workout. His ability to stretch the floor and his ability to protect the rim make him a very good fit next to Vucevic. I think Vonleh has the edge, but itâ??s very close. If the Magic took Smart here I wouldnâ??t be shocked.
5. Utah Jazz - Aaron Gordon
The Jazz, like the Sixers and Magic, have been trying to get into the top. Sources say that while there was some internal debate for months, the Jazz would take Jabari Parker if they got the top pick. Sources say the Jazz have or are planning to increase their offer to include the 23rd pick and Alec Burks, but it's doubtful that will be enough to pry away the No. 1 pick.
If they stay at No. 5, it appears that Gordon has emerged as their top prospect after Parker, Wiggins and Exum. He had a stellar workout in Utah and the team is convinced that he could have an Andrei Kirilenko-like effect on the team. Because Gordon has never been a shooter; he's had to develop every other part of his game (ballhandling, passing, rebounding, defense) to justify putting him on the floor. But if he could ever learn how to shoot, he has everything else that you could want in an NBA star.
6. Boston Celtics - Joel Embiid
Embiid could go No. 3 to the Sixers (or to the Cavs in a Sixers-Cavs swap) or to the Magic at No. 4. But if he slides past both of those teams there's an increasing belief that GM Danny Ainge won't let him slide further. Ainge always has been a gambler and has always emphasized having great assets, and Embiid has the potential to be a franchise center. There's also no one else on the board the Celtics are in love with.
There are caveats. The Celtics, like everyone else, are still gathering medical info. Sources say that the foot and back fractures aren't the only issues with Embiid's physical. There are several other issues that need to be addressed. Something they see could scare them away. And second, the Celtics are engaged in a number of different trade scenarios that could alter this plan (by either trading the pick or getting an established star that would necessitate getting a player in the draft who could help them now).
If the Celtics pass on Embiid, it sounds like this will be between Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon and Marcus Smart. The Celtics love Smart's toughness and think he can play with Rondo as well as free them up to explore Rondo deals. Randle has also picked up momentum in the organization as an upgrade over Jared Sullinger at the four.
7. Los Angeles Lakers - Julius Randle
Randle went into the Lakers' workout and ferociously tried to end any doubt about where he belongs in the draft. After facing numerous questions about foot surgery this summer, Randle was dominant in the workout.
Yes, Randle will likely have to have a minor procedure to clean up a rogue screw in his foot. But the Lakers reportedly aren't as concerned as other teams. Marcus Smart seems to be the other strong contender for this pick. He came in for a second workout this weekend and had a strong one, but it looks like Randle has moved into the lead if the Lakers keep the pick. The Lakers have been very active in looking for a veteran for their pick. Players like Klay Thompson, Michael Carter-Williams and Thaddeus Young are all interesting to them. This is a team that wants to win now. Randle or Smart could help, but a veteran will be even more ready.
Doug McDermott and Elfrid Payton also have been getting long looks from the Lakers, but it appears that both players are only in play if Randle and Smart are off the board.
8. Sacramento Kings - Marcus Smart
The Kings are another team that will seriously consider Embiid if he's on the board. They are also active in trying to trade the pick with multiple sources saying that a trade is more likely than the Kings drafting here. The Sixers, Suns and Celtics seem to be the teams with the most traction in trade talks with the Kings.
Now that the team knows Rudy Gay will be back next season, the Kings are focusing on getting another point guard and an athletic big man to pair with DeMarcus Cousins.
Smart is the favorite if he's still there. He brings toughness, is NBA-ready and allows the team to get much bigger at the point. McDermott, Nik Stauskas and Elfrid Payton are also interesting to the Kings. The Kings want shooters and McDermott and Stauskas both qualify. Payton is another option at point guard if Smart is off the board.
9. Charlotte Hornets - Doug McDermott
The Hornets continue to focus on shooters. They are shopping Gerald Henderson and according to sources they offered the 24th pick and Henderson to the Magic for Arron Afflalo. McDermott remains a favorite there, even after his workout was just so-so. Stauskas is another strong possibility, as are Gary Harris and James Young. Payton is the other sleeper here. The Hornets would like some depth at the point guard position behind Kemba Walker.
10. Philadelphia 76ers - Nik Stauskas
If Embiid falls to No. 10, I think this is his backstop. Can't imagine he slides past Philly. Ideally, the 76ers need a forward here. But the draft board doesn't really support it in this scenario. Of the shooters available, Stauskas, Harris and Young all seem to be in the mix here. Stauskas gets the slight nod. I hear that Zach LaVine could be a sleeper here as well. The Sixers love, long, athletic guards.
I've had Dario Saric here in the past and he's still a possibility. However, Saric is staying in Europe for the next two years. While it doesn't preclude the 76ers from taking him here (especially given all the picks they have) this team needs players. The one dark horse here is Bosnian big man Jusuf Nurkic. The Sixers, along with several teams in this, range like him.
11. Denver Nuggets - Zach LaVine
The Nuggets are yet another wild card here. They've had talks with the Bulls, Magic, Warriors and Bucks that would move them out of this spot. A rumor that they made a promise to Saric has also been floating around, though a source close to the Nuggets and Saric deny it.
Nik Stauskas is the guy here, according to multiple sources, if heâ??s on the board. If he's not, Nurkic, LaVine or Gary Harris are all possibilities. It sounds like the Nuggets are leaning LaVine. He's one of the most raw prospects in the draft, but he's a crazy athlete and heâ??s a terrific shooter. If a team is patient with him, he could be a star.
12. Orlando Magic - Elfrid Payton
This pick remains highly contextual based on what the Magic do at No. 4. If Exum falls to them or if they take Smart, then they'll likely look at another big here -- though there just aren't a lot of great bigs available.
But if Exum is gone and they pass on Smart and take Vonleh, look for them to take a point guard. There are several intriguing point guards here, the most exciting of which might be Payton. His athleticism, quickness, defensive toughness and ability to get to the rim make him a great fix in Orlando if they pass on Exum. Shabazz Napier is the other name to watch. The Magic have concerns that pairing Payton and Oladipo would put two non-shooters in their backcourt. Napier, while small for the position, would alleviate that concern.
13. Minnesota T'Wolves - Gary Harris
The Wolves continue to discuss trades with a number of teams. A deal with the Warriors was "near the finish line" per one source before it stalled because of the other players involved in the deal. The Bulls, who are offering Taj Gibson and Tony Snell plus Nos. 16 and 19, are the latest suitors.
If they keep the pick, they'll look for a shooter. Stauskas is a favorite if he's here. If he's not, there is a strong buzz around LaVine. However, in this mock, both are off the board at 13. Harris' lack of size seems to be the thing dropping him in the draft. But he's one of the few two-way players in this draft, something head coach Flip Saunders will love. Rodney Hood and James Young are also possibilities.
14. Phoenix Suns - T.J. Warren
The Suns are talking trade with a number of teams. Interestingly, they've spoken with several teams about point guards despite having both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Could the Suns be thinking of trading Dragic or not matching an offer for Bledsoe?
Their biggest need is probably at wing. The team, according to sources has narrowed the list down to Warren, Rodney Hood, LaVine and Payton. Both LaVine and Payton are off the board here, which puts it between Warren and Hood. Of the two, Hood is the most likely to still be on the board at 18 -- the Hawks, Bulls and Celtics are all high on Warren. Warren gives them one of the best scorers in the draft, though they are going to have to find a shooter somewhere else.
15. Atlanta Hawks - Shabazz Napier
The Hawks like international players, and Nurkic would be a strong possibility if he's here. They'd also take a long look at Saric if he falls this far, though waiting two years might scare them away.
Kyle Anderson is another strong possibility here. Head coach Mike Budenholzer got to see firsthand how the Spurs used Boris Diaw. Anderson is the closest thing we've seen to him since Diaw entered the league, and the word is the Hawks are very high on him.
However, the Hawks are also not completely sold on Jeff Teague and could explore the market for him this summer. That's led them to take long looks at both Shabazz Napier and Payton at No. 15 if something materializes in the next few days. Napier, especially, seems to have gained momentum in workouts the past few weeks, and sources say he's moved into a strong possibility in Atlanta.
16. Chicago Bulls - Jusuf Nurkic
The Bulls are trying to package their picks to move up in the draft for a shooter like Nik Stauskas or Doug McDermott. If they can't get their, their other option appears to be to take an international player or trade out of the draft completely. Nurkic has great size, a soft touch around the basket and is simply a huge guy. NBA GMs are all over the place on him, but it's now possible that Nurkic is the second international player off the board.
17. Boston Celtics - Dario Saric
Saric might go as high as No. 10. He'll get looks at 11, 12, 14 and 15, as well. But with Saric staying in Europe for two more years, there seems to be more reluctance toward taking him that high. Again, I don't think the Celtics let him pass. Yes, I know that it means that Celtics fans would not see EITHER of their first-round picks play in Boston next season. But as far as talent goes, Ainge could walk away with possibly the best player in the draft and a top-10 pick for Nos. 6 and 17. I'm not sure he could pass on it. Anderson is another player who is in play here. Ditto for Warren if he falls.
18. Phoenix Suns - Rodney Hood
Hood has great size for his position and can really shoot the ball. The Suns will take a serious look at him at 14, but would be thrilled if he was still on the board here.
19. Chicago Bulls - Adreian Payne
The Bulls are shopping this pick and are also looking at international players in an attempt to save cap space for a run at either LeBron or Carmelo. But with no great international options here, I think they would lean toward Payne, who gives them a big and another shooter. He's also ready to play.
20. Toronto Raptors - Tyler Ennis
The Raptors have been eyeing a point guard and will be happy if local product Ennis falls here. Ennis is in the mix as high as the Kings at 8. But in workouts he has struggled to get ahead of Smart, Payton and Napier. Clint Capela is a possibility here as well.
21. Oklahoma City Thunder - Kyle Anderson
The Thunder are, according to sources, trying to trade both 21 and 29. So they may not be picking in either spot. If they stay, Anderson would be a strong possibility. His ability to facilitate from the 4 is special and could be a nice fit in a Thunder offense that could use a real distributor. Warren is another possibility here.
22. Memphis Grizzlies - P.J. Hairston
The Grizzlies had a last minute workout with Glenn Robinsion III, Jordan Adams, Joe Harris and Geron Johnson. Adams and Harris have a good shot of going here if available. But Hairston has size, shoots the ball and is ready to play now.
23. Utah Jazz - James Young
It would be a coup for the Jazz if Young fell this far. Young had to cancel some workouts due to a minor car accident. While there are no long-term issues, his inability to work out for teams has hurt his stock. He's rumored as high as Philly at 10, the Nuggets at 11, the Wolves at 13 and the Celtics at 17. But if he gets here, he gives the Jazz a big wing who can really shoot.
24. Charlotte Hornets - Mitch McGary
McGary has been the mystery man of the draft. He's only worked out for one team (Bucks) and hasn't really done anything else. He's healthy now, so what gives? Two theories. The first is that his agent wants him to slide into the second round where he can control the money and number of years McGary signs for. He essentially would push for a one-year deal, let McGary show he's healthy and then try to cash in next year with a much larger contract. The other theory is that a team in the first round promised they'd take him. Charlotte could be that team. Toughness and size are much needed on their front line.
25. Houston Rockets - Jarnell Stokes
The Rockets have Terrence Jones at the 4, but Stokes could give them a different look -- another big body that crashes the boards along with Dwight Howard. The Rockets are heavy into analytics and Stokes is one of the best values left on the board by the numbers.
26. Miami Heat - K.J. McDaniels
As we reported on Wednesday, the Heat are trying to move up in the draft to land Shabazz Napier. However if they can't get him, look for them to take a junior or senior who can help them in other ways. McDaniels can jump out of the gym, rebound, block shots and get to the basket. His jump shot needs to improve but he's the type of player who could help right now.
27. Phoenix Suns - Clint Capela
Capela's stock is all over the place. He's getting looks in the late lottery, but could end up down here. He's so raw, but his length and shot-blocking abilities appeal to every team looking for a rim protector. If he's gone, other international players like Walter Tavares or Artem Klimenko could go in his place. The Suns have three first-round picks, but I don't think there's any way they're bringing three rookies to their roster next season.
28. Los Angeles Clippers - Jordan Clarkson
The Clippers could use a backup point guard. Clarkson's been terrific in workouts and combines length, athleticism and the ability to play multiple positions on the floor.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder - Jordan Adams
Adams might be the most unathletic guard in the draft, but he really knows how to score the basketball and could be a spark plug off the bench for OKC next year.
30. San Antonio Spurs - Nikola Jokic
Jokic also turned a lot of heads in practices at the Nike Hoop Summit. He's not a great athlete, but he is very, very skilled for a 19-year-old. He finished in the top 5 of Kevin Pelton's projected WARP rankings.
