Jeff Bagwell is one of 12 players in baseball history with 400 or more homers and a career on-base percentage of .400 or better. He slugged 449 homers, finished first in the MVP voting in one season, second in another, and in the top 10 six times.
He was a strong defensive player, once winning a Gold Glove Award, and he was an exceptional baserunner, stealing 202 bases despite relatively modest speed. He was a great teammate, didn't live on police blogs, and treated others with tremendous respect. There is nothing about Bagwell's performance that isn't worthy of the Hall of Fame.
But he got votes from just
56 percent of the writers in this year's Hall of Fame voting, and in many respects, his candidacy has become the perfect barometer to gauge the size and scope of the writers' bloc that has devoted itself to doing something that the institution of baseball still doesn't do -- protect the Hall of Fame from performance-enhancing drugs.
To date, there is no evidence that Bagwell ever tested positive for a PED. No documentation, through a report or a lawsuit or investigation, has ever linked Bagwell to the use of a PED.
But some writers have explained in columns that they haven't voted for Bagwell because of
suspicion of PED-use, an extraordinary standard. Bagwell's voting percentage climbed from 41.7 to 56 this year, a significant jump, but there appears to be a wall of dissent before him. All it takes to keep a player out of the Hall of Fame is 25 percent plus one of the writers voting 'no.' Bagwell is seemingly close, and yet he is so far away if the steroid vigilantes among the writers don't change their stance.
Bagwell played his first game on April 8, 1991, and his final game on Oct. 2, 2005. In a career of almost 10,000 plate appearances, Bagwell's last 14 plate appearances came
after the first notable suspension of any major-leaguer for performance-enhancing drugs --
Rafael Palmeiro.
For almost the entirety of Bagwell's career, there was no attempt to curb the use of steroids in Major League Baseball. The union leadership, the most powerful entity in the sport, didn't address it. The owners didn't address it, nor did the players, clean or dirty. It was in that climate of indifference that
a lot of players -- some estimate more than 50 percent -- chose to use PEDs to help their careers, to compete against other users, to make money.
The sport cashed in; owners cashed in. The
Houston Astros cashed in; they built a new ballpark, and Drayton McLane recently
sold the franchise -- which he purchased in 1992 for $117 million, right after Bagwell began his career -- for $680 million.
Despite the broad suspicion that many, many players used performance-enhancing drugs, no outcome has been altered. No won-loss record has been altered. No championships have been taken away, in the way that Olympics have stripped medals.
None of the results of the Astros' games or seasons have been vacated; the team hasn't given back any of the money it made. Major League Baseball hasn't added asterisks to the record book because suspected steroid use, and in many respects, the sport has moved on, beyond an era it would like to forget.
Mark McGwire has been the St. Louis Cardinals' hitting coach, and since his retirement, Bagwell been hired by the Astros.
Manny Ramirez was signed by the
Tampa Bay Rays after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs while with the
Los Angeles Dodgers, and he probably will be signed again.
At no point has Major League Baseball or the Hall of Fame moved to make PED users -- suspected or proven -- ineligible for induction, maybe because they realize you can't fully determine who did what, and when they did it, and what the impact of that use was, in its time.
But there are writers who want to pretend that what happened in the steroid era didn't happen, that those achievements that McGwire and
Barry Bonds and
Roger Clemens and Bagwell and others accomplished -- all bought, all paid for, all under the auspices of baseball's powers that be -- didn't happen.
You'd like to think that the work of writers is to reflect history. Not whitewash it.
[h3]Hall of Fame[/h3]
•
Barry Larkin was voted in, and I described him to my 7-year-old this way: He was a lot like
Derek Jeter, a combination of speed and power, someone who could really hit in any spot of the lineup, while excelling at a premium defensive position. Larkin didn't play as long as Jeter has, nor did he play on the October stage as Jeter, but the reasons why Larkin was special are the same as why we laud Jeter now.
Congrats to a classy colleague ...
Larkin
wants to celebrate with
Cincinnati Reds fans. His former teammates are
really happy for him. The writers
got it right this time, writes Hal McCoy.
Larkin was
always about grace, writes Paul Daugherty. Larkin would be a charter member in the
hall of class guys, writes Bob Ryan.
Some
Atlanta Braves offered
raves about Larkin, as Carroll Rogers writes.
• Next year, a whole bunch of big names become eligible -- Bonds, Clemens,
Sammy Sosa,
Mike Piazza,
Craig Biggio and
Curt Schilling.
Some arguments supporting Schilling's candidacy, from Mark Simon of ESPN Research:
Argument No. 1: Schilling was the ___ of his time
"Let's do a simple comparison here. Let's compare Curt Schilling to the first-ballot Hall of Famer whose career he most res
embles. Though the two played in different eras, we can use a cross-era Next Level stat to compare them.
[h4]Schilling's Cooperstown case[/h4]
How Curt Schilling's career compares to a Hall of Fame pitcher
| | |
Win Pct
|
.597
|
.591
|
Games over .500
|
70
|
77
|
ERA+
|
128
|
128
|
Strikeouts
|
3,116
|
3,117
|
K per 9
|
8.6
|
7.2
|
K-BB Ratio
|
4.4
|
2.3
|
Starts
|
436
|
482
|
World Series W-L
|
4-1
|
7-2
|
Postseason ERA
|
2.06
|
1.89
|
WS Titles
|
3
|
2
|
[th=""]
Career
[/th][th=""]
Schilling
[/th][th=""]
Pitcher X
[/th]
"We use ERA+, which compares a pitcher's ERA to that of his peers in his era, making a slight adjustment for ballparks pitched in. The higher the number, the better the pitcher was than his peers. The numbers are available on Baseball-Reference.com."
Pitcher X is Hall of Famer Bob Gibson.
For reference, Schilling's ERA+ is a match both for Gibson and fellow Hall of Famer Tom Seaver. And it's better than Hall of Famer Jim Palmer's 126.
Argument #2: Postseason performance
"Curt Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 career ERA in postseason. Schilling pitched in the postseason between 1993 and 2007. The major-league postseason ERA in that span was 3.98. Of the 93 pitchers to make at least five postseason starts in the last 25 seasons, Schilling's ERA ranks second-best to Doug Drabek (2.05).
"Schilling was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA in seven career World Series starts. Since the first season after the end of World War II (1946), 38 pitchers have started at least five World Series games."
"The only pitchers with a better World Series ERA than Schilling in that span are Sandy Koufax (0.95) and Bob Gibson (1.89)."
• Jack Morris took a
big jump in the voting. I agree with what Lynn Henning
writes here: Morris' candidacy could be caught in the vortex of next year's ballot. So far, Morris is
0-for-13.
Fred McGriff's polling numbers
grew a little.
Bernie Williams' Hall of Fame candidacy
did not start strongly, as
Bernie Williams writes.
Edgar Martinez's climb to the Hall of Fame will
require patience, writes Larry Stone.
[h3]Notables[/h3]
• It's the middle of January and the start of spring training is five weeks away, and if you're the agent for a free player, said one general manager, "you have to get a job for your guy." This would go a long way toward explaining the renewed aggression being shown by some agents in recent days, general managers say, and why a flurry of signings have kicked off -- from
Aaron Cook signing with the
Boston Red Sox, who has a good relationship with Boston pitching coach Bob McClure, to
Paul Maholm, who
landed with the
Chicago Cubs.
"There are some good value buys out there," said one executive. "If you've got some extra cash, there are some good pitchers left."
Time will tell whether the prices on the highest-profile pitchers will drop, as well.
Hiroki Kuroda, who seems to be waiting for someone to pull the trigger on his asking price of $13-14 million.
Edwin Jackson, who had hoped for a
John Lackey-type contract when the offseason began. And
Ryan Madson, who seemingly was on the verge of re-signing with the
Philadelphia Phillies back in November and is, instead, left standing with the closers' game of musical chairs all but over.
It's now Jan. 10 and
Prince Fielder is still not signed, and Adam Kilgore
wonders why.
• The
Oakland Athletics were mostly irrelevant in the AL West race last year, so if you didn't notice how good
Brandon McCarthy was, you're forgiven. After the All-Star break, McCarthy had a
3.15 ERA, allowing just 13 walks in 94.1 innings, holding opponents to a .241 batting average. McCarthy is on target to be eligible for free agency next fall, so it figures that one of two things will happen:
1) The 28-year-old McCarthy could be traded by the Athletics, becoming the latest starting pitcher to be dealt by an organization that is loading up for 2015 and beyond.
2) Oakland could sign McCarthy to a multi-year deal, as the two sides go through the arbitration process this month. Signing McCarthy, of course, wouldn't preclude the Athletics from trading the right-hander sometime down the road.
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The
New York Yankees will determine in the next couple of weeks whether they will expand their current budget, and this, of course, will determine exactly who they might add for their pitching staff.
2. The
Washington Nationals continue to look for another relief pitcher, whether it be
Todd Coffey or someone who could do for them what Coffey did last year.
3. The Phillies are
among the teams considering
Kerry Wood.
4. The
Toronto Blue Jays completed their
signing of
Darren Oliver.
5. The
Baltimore Orioles signed a
lefty from Taiwan.
6. The Orioles formally hired a
front-office official, as Eduardo Encina writes.
7. The
Cleveland Indians signed a
lefty.
8. Jeff Moorad's
ownership acquisition of the
San Diego Padres will be completed Thursday. John Moores deserves credit for
saving baseball in San Diego.
9. The
Milwaukee Brewers watched an
outfielder.