GILBERT?! %*%%%#* GILBERT!????!?? i wanted to break my television
and apparently half of team knicks could have helped Wilson get some bud. no need for him to put himself at risk. you need to reach out to the fans wilson! i'll spark up!
http://www.basketballpros...ticle.php?articleid=1136
This is a supplement to Basketball Prospectus' series previewing the NBA's 2010 free agency. Part one projected the future value of the top players on the market, part two compared the contenders to sign a max free agent and part three explored other ways those teams could use their cap space.
Since we last took a look at the top contenders in the summer of2010 free-agent derby in March, much has changed. It was always myintent to update that column after the NBA Draft Lottery, when we hadclarity about where several of these teams would pick. The timing alsoworks well because speculation about
LeBron Jameschanging teams has reached a fever pitch following Cleveland's earlyexit from the playoffs. Lastly, the cap projection has grown moreoptimistic, giving several teams more flexibility.
The most important difference here, however, might be something thathas nothing to do with any of these teams but simply the way I'mevaluating them. As I
introduced in my awards column, I'm moving toward an updated version of
WARPthat credits three-point shooters for their ability to space the floor.While the transition is not complete, and will not be until next seasonat the very earliest, I thought it would be appropriate to redo theplayer projections using these new and improved ratings that bettervalue perimeter players relative to their interior counterparts.
As a reminder, the goal is this: Trying to put some data behind whatis by nature the very subjective question of what is the bestdestination for the superstars expected to become free agents thissummer (James most notable among the group, which also includes
Dwyane Wade and
Chris Bosh)by rating the future prospects of the teams with space to sign a maxfree agent. Now, it's important to note that team quality is surelyjust one of many factors that will go into these players' decisions ofwhere to continue to career, but of them it's the only one we canreally quantify.
What this involves is a comprehensive valuation of all of a team'sassets--players, future draft picks and cap space. Think of this as anobjective version, if less comprehensive, of
ESPN's future power rankings (Insider). Underlying this effort is the use of three-year
WARP projections based on the 10 most similar players from
our SCHOENE projection system. Draft picks were valued using the average performance of past players by pick number, and cap space is generally valued at 1
WARP for each $2.5 million of room, a figure based on the historic efficiency of the free-agent market.
Because we're interested primarily in comparing these teams as theylook to prospective free-agent additions, we were able to simplify afew assumptions. The value of the first $16.6 million in cap space foreach team--the amount projections indicate will be needed to sign aplayer to a max contract--is the same, and picks from 2011 and beyondwere projected with identical value (at the level of the 15th overallpick in the first round; second-round picks beyond 2010 do not have anyvalue above replacement level by this method).
We'll go in reverse order, and apologies to the
Sacramento Kings, who are not included because I do not expect them to pursue a max free agent.
Washington Wizards
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------2010 Rd 1 2.9 5.0 7.3 15.2Andray Blatche 4.3 5.5 4.8 14.6Gilbert Arenas 6.2 3.9 3.2 13.3JaVale McGee 4.1 4.1 4.5 12.72011 Rd 1 0.7 1.5 2.22010 Rd 1 (CLE) 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.72010 Rd 2 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.92012 Rd 1 0.7 0.7Nick Young -0.1 0.4 0.3 0.72011 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.02012 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.0Quinton Ross -0.9 0.0 0.0 -0.9Al Thornton -0.1 -1.2 -1.8 -3.1-----------------------------------------------Total 16.7 19.3 22.0 57.9
Winning the lottery more than doubled the value of the Wizards'first-round pick, and with John Wall (presumably) around Washington'slong-term future is bright. Still, it would take an awfully hopefulassessment of Wall's game to convince any of this year's marquee freeagents to sign with a team that has so many other question marks. TheWizards should continue to point toward future free-agent classes, whenthe sales job is easier because Wall is closer to superstardom andWashington has added another lottery pick.
Chicago Bulls
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Derrick Rose 9.1 10.0 9.8 28.8Luol Deng 3.3 2.3 3.1 8.7Taj Gibson 3.0 2.7 0.7 6.4James Johnson 1.9 3.0 1.4 6.3Joakim Noah 3.4 1.7 1.1 6.3Kirk Hinrich 2.5 2.2 0.9 5.62010 Cap Space 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.52010 Rd 1 (MIL) 0.6 1.3 2.0 3.92011 Rd 1 0.7 1.5 2.22012 Rd 1 0.7 0.7-----------------------------------------------Total 25.3 25.4 22.9 73.6
In the last week, a loose consensus has developed that the Bullswould be the best destination for James if he wants to win and win big,so it should be a surprise they rank here, right? Well, yes and no. Yesto the extent that I think we can all agree this projection badly,badly underestimates Noah's value. He was worth 6.6
WARP this season and is entering his prime at age 25, so even a pessimistic guess would be somewhere closer to 18
WARPover the next three years. Why is Noah's projection so much lower? Justone of those flukes of using a small group to project, I suspect.Several more accomplished players were just outside the group of 10players most similar to Noah and many of the top 10 peaked early.
Still, even if we adjust Noah's value, Chicago still comes out as analso-ran among these teams. I think the last memory we were left withof the Bulls (playing Cleveland tough in the first round of theplayoffs) has overshadowed the fact that this was a .500 team--andworse than that after dealing
John Salmons.Noah and Derrick Rose are two great pieces, but nobody else on theroster projects as even an average starter over the long run, andChicago will have few avenues to improve after using its cap space thissummer.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Maurice Williams 6.9 7.8 6.6 21.3Leon Powe 4.5 3.4 4.3 12.1Delonte West 2.5 2.9 2.1 7.5Antawn Jamison 2.7 2.3 1.4 6.5Anderson Varejao 1.8 2.3 2.1 6.22010 MLE 2.0 2.0 2.0 6.0Daniel Gibson 1.9 1.7 1.5 5.1J.J. Hickson 0.0 1.2 1.4 2.6Jamario Moon 1.0 0.8 0.6 2.42011 Rd 1 0.7 1.5 2.2Sebastian Telfair 1.5 1.52012 Rd 1 0.7 0.72011 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.02012 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.0Anthony Parker 0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.3-----------------------------------------------Total 25.1 24.7 24.1 73.9
On paper, there's little reason from a basketball standpoint thatJames should re-sign with the Cavaliers. If taken extremely literally,the projections suggest that a Cleveland team without James would missthe playoffs next year. Several key players, including newcomer AntawnJamison, are aging badly and SCHOENE isn't especially bullish on J.J.Hickson's prospects. Where I do think this underrates the option ofstaying with the Cavaliers is that owner Dan Gilbert has shown thewillingness to spend to put a quality team around James, and expiringcontracts (like Jamison's in 2011-12) can be used to upgrade theroster. Still, as the Jamison trade itself shows, those additions tendto be second-tier solutions, not marquee additions.
L.A. Clippers
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Blake Griffin 9.3 9.8 9.1 28.2Eric Gordon 4.2 5.6 6.5 16.3Baron Davis 6.5 5.2 3.5 15.2DeAndre Jordan 3.6 3.8 3.9 11.2Chris Kaman 3.7 2.0 1.6 7.32010 Rd 1 1.2 2.3 3.4 6.92011 Rd 1 0.7 1.5 2.22012 Rd 1 0.7 0.72012 Rd 1 (MIN) 0.7 0.72010 Rd 2 (NYK) -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.62011 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.02011 Rd 2 (DET) 0.0 0.0 0.02012 Rd 2 0.0 0.0-----------------------------------------------Total 28.4 29.6 31.3 89.4
ESPN.com's excellent Kevin Arnovitz has already made the very reasonable case for
why the Clippers might be the best destination for James in basketball terms. The existing talent on the
L.A.roster rates better than any of the cores of the other teams withsignificant cap space. The Clippers are also the only team ready-madefor James, who could slide in at small forward without the need to signanyone else or make any other moves. (Chicago, for example, wouldsurely trade Luol Deng, while
Devin Harris' skills might be too redundant with James' addition in New Jersey.)
Comparing the Clippers to Chicago, Blake Griffin (whose projectionsare based on his translated college stats) rates as just as valuable asRose, his predecessor as the No. 1 overall pick, while Eric Gordon isof similar value to Noah. I'd take the rest of the Clippers' rosterover the other Bulls, and
L.A.has a superior first-round pick. Alas, because they are the Clippersand because of Donald Sterling's less-than-sterling reputation, theteam probably has no real shot at James.
Miami Heat
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Dwyane Wade 14.5 13.5 9.3 37.3Mario Chalmers 5.5 6.3 6.9 18.8Michael Beasley 3.8 5.3 6.0 15.1Dorell Wright 3.0 3.3 4.9 11.22010 Rd 1 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.72010 Cap Space 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0Daequan Cook 0.8 0.9 0.8 2.62011 Rd 1 0.7 1.5 2.2Joel Anthony 0.9 0.4 -0.3 1.02012 Rd 1 0.7 0.72010 Rd 2 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.42010 Rd 2 (NO) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.42010 Rd 2 (TOR) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.32012 Rd 2 (NO) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0-----------------------------------------------Total 30.0 33.0 33.8 96.8
For our purposes, we'll assume for the moment that the rest of theHeat's cap space will be used on re-signing Dwyane Wade. With thattaken for granted, there's a lot to like about Miami's future. Theplayers on hand should be good enough to continue to finish in one ofthe bottom four playoff spots in the East even without adding anothermax free agent. The upside is obvious. Worth noting: First, I carvedout a significant chunk of the Heat's leftover cap space with the ideaof re-signing Dorell Wright, who established himself as a quality wingthis season. If you'd rather assume that Miami will spend that money ona veteran, the expected value would be similar if not lower. Second,SCHOENE is much, much more optimistic about Chalmers' future than theHeat apparently is as an organization.
New Jersey Nets
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Brook Lopez 10.4 10.5 11.1 32.0Devin Harris 7.0 4.8 4.5 16.42010 Cap Space 4.0 4.0 4.0 12.02010 Rd 1 2.0 3.6 5.2 10.8Yi Jianlian 1.9 3.6 2.6 8.0Kris Humphries 2.2 2.5 2.0 6.7Terrence Williams 0.9 1.6 1.4 3.9Courtney Lee 0.0 1.2 1.3 2.52011 Rd 1 0.0 0.7 1.5 2.22010 Rd 1 (DAL) 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.1C. Douglas-Roberts -0.2 0.0 1.2 0.92012 Rd 1 0.7 0.72011 Rd 2 0.0 0.0 0.02012 Rd 2 0.0 0.02012 Rd 2 (MIA) 0.0 0.0-----------------------------------------------Total 28.5 33.2 36.6 98.3
When the Nets' logo came up third in the draft lottery, New Jerseylost its chance to became the "it" destination for free agents thissummer. Still, that's not the real reason the Nets no longer rate quiteas well as they did in March. The No. 3 pick represented just about theaverage of New Jersey's possible selections. In practice, even thoughthere appears to be a drop-off after the consensus top two playersavailable (Wall and Evan Turner), the Nets could fill a hole at powerforward by drafting Georgia Tech's Derrick Favors to complement BrookLopez in a talented young frontcourt.
No, the Nets' real problem is that they were one of the worst teamsin the league when it came to outside shooting, so several players tooka major hit with the new alternate
WARP.New Jersey's future still appears very bright, especially with thechance to spend $10 million more in free agency even after signing amax player, but the Nets are no longer far and away the best option onpaper.
New York Knicks
Code:
Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Chris Bosh 12.4 10.3 7.7 30.4Danilo Gallinari 5.1 6.8 8.2 20.2Bill Walker 5.5 6.7 7.0 19.2Wilson Chandler 2.8 6.4 4.0 13.2Toney Douglas 4.0 4.8 3.3 12.22011 Cap Space 4.0 4.0 8.02010 Cap Space 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.02011 Rd 1 (HOU/NYK) 0.6 1.2 1.82010 Rd 2 (LAC) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.72012 Rd 2 0.0 0.0-----------------------------------------------Total 30.7 41.0 36.9 108.7
I promise this is not our attempt to be part of the "LeBron PleaseCome to New York" storyline that has cropped up recently (besides, ofcourse,
evaluating other teams as part of New York Magazine's feature).We came by these numbers honestly, which is not to say I necessarilybelieve in them. The Knicks more than any other team benefited fromreassessing players and putting a premium on shooting, which was NewYork's lone offensive strength in 2009-10. Every returning player onthe roster shot plenty of threes, so our projections for them are muchmore favorable now. Toney Douglas, for example, was rated as anafterthought in March; now he looks like a potential starting pointguard. That's probably going a bit far, though certainly shooting takeson paramount importance when we're talking about playing alongside aplayer like James sure to draw double-team attention.
The most stunning projection of all belongs to Bill Walker. Going onWalker's hot shooting after the trade deadline (including 41.3 percentaccuracy on threes), SCHOENE compares Walker to Reggie Miller and
Peja Stojakovic,among others. Needless to say, that is a bit of a stretch. Walker was anice pickup and should be a tremendous bargain thanks to hisnon-guaranteed minimum contract for 2010-11, but I'd temper those
WARP projections quite a bit.
We've also given the Knicks the benefit of the doubt by using Boshto estimate their second max-contract spot. The projection dropsconsiderably if we replace Bosh with Amar'e Stoudemire or
David Lee(though the latter might be more cost-effective). Even if New York isnot as dominant as it looks by this assessment, though, the numberssuggest that the Knicks are a better option for James than the cynicswould have you believe. Gallinari is a solid, though not spectacular,No. 2 option and there is some other talent on hand.
I like the graphical comparison of teams' assets because it reallygets at the heart of this concept--considering all the different ways ateam can create wins in the future. The Clippers and the Nets havealready amassed quality talent and have draft picks on the way, butMiami and New York make up for it with their ability to add a secondmax free agent. Which is better? I think you could make an argument forany of the top four teams, as well as Chicago and possibly evenCleveland.
I wish there was a tidier conclusion to offer here, but there arestill important takeaways. The hype around the Bulls may be somewhatpremature, and if James does end up signing in New York, it's notnecessarily just for marketing purposes or the notion of winning overthe fans at Madison Square Garden. There's a basketball argument to bemade for the Knicks as well.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
