Originally Posted by
DubA169
http://www.basketballpros...ticle.php?articleid=1136
[font=times new roman, times, serif]Summer 2010 Preview[/font]
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New York Knicks
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Player/Asset 10-11 11-12 12-13 Total-----------------------------------------------Chris Bosh 12.4 10.3 7.7 30.4Danilo Gallinari 5.1 6.8 8.2 20.2Bill Walker 5.5 6.7 7.0 19.2Wilson Chandler 2.8 6.4 4.0 13.2Toney Douglas 4.0 4.8 3.3 12.22011 Cap Space 4.0 4.0 8.02010 Cap Space 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.02011 Rd 1 (HOU/NYK) 0.6 1.2 1.82010 Rd 2 (LAC) 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.72012 Rd 2 0.0 0.0-----------------------------------------------Total 30.7 41.0 36.9 108.7
I promise this is not our attempt to be part of the "LeBron PleaseCome to New York" storyline that has cropped up recently (besides, ofcourse,
evaluating other teams as part of New York Magazine's feature).We came by these numbers honestly, which is not to say I necessarilybelieve in them. The Knicks more than any other team benefited fromreassessing players and putting a premium on shooting, which was NewYork's lone offensive strength in 2009-10. Every returning player onthe roster shot plenty of threes, so our projections for them are muchmore favorable now. Toney Douglas, for example, was rated as anafterthought in March; now he looks like a potential starting pointguard. That's probably going a bit far, though certainly shooting takeson paramount importance when we're talking about playing alongside aplayer like James sure to draw double-team attention.
The most stunning projection of all belongs to Bill Walker. Going onWalker's hot shooting after the trade deadline (including 41.3 percentaccuracy on threes), SCHOENE compares Walker to Reggie Miller and
Peja Stojakovic,among others. Needless to say, that is a bit of a stretch. Walker was anice pickup and should be a tremendous bargain thanks to hisnon-guaranteed minimum contract for 2010-11, but I'd temper those
WARP projections quite a bit.
We've also given the Knicks the benefit of the doubt by using Boshto estimate their second max-contract spot. The projection dropsconsiderably if we replace Bosh with Amar'e Stoudemire or
David Lee(though the latter might be more cost-effective). Even if New York isnot as dominant as it looks by this assessment, though, the numberssuggest that the Knicks are a better option for James than the cynicswould have you believe. Gallinari is a solid, though not spectacular,No. 2 option and there is some other talent on hand.
I like the graphical comparison of teams' assets because it reallygets at the heart of this concept--considering all the different ways ateam can create wins in the future. The Clippers and the Nets havealready amassed quality talent and have draft picks on the way, butMiami and New York make up for it with their ability to add a secondmax free agent. Which is better? I think you could make an argument forany of the top four teams, as well as Chicago and possibly evenCleveland.
I wish there was a tidier conclusion to offer here, but there arestill important takeaways. The hype around the Bulls may be somewhatpremature, and if James does end up signing in New York, it's notnecessarily just for marketing purposes or the notion of winning overthe fans at Madison Square Garden. There's a basketball argument to bemade for the Knicks as well.
Kevin Pelton is an author of Basketball Prospectus.You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.
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