Do ugly May car sales mean a recession is coming? vol Merica'

Richard Read
2 Comments1,401 viewsJun 2, 2016Follow Richard
May 2016 & May 2015 auto sales by segment (via Wall Street Journal)May 2016 & May 2015 auto sales by segment (via Wall Street Journal)
The numbers are in, and as expected, May's auto sales stats are nothing to write home about. Is this a sign that America's headed toward a recession repeat?

For tl;dr types, the answer is: probably not, but we may be witnessing a cool-down in the country's red-hot auto market.

Auto sales in the tank?

Without question, sales were off for most car companies last month--in fact, the year-over-year drop of six percent is the biggest tumble we've seen since August 2010. Comparing the Wall Street Journal's numbers from May 2016 with May 2015, those in the red included (in order of U.S. market share):

General Motors (down 18 percent)
Ford (down 6.1 percent)
Toyota (down 9.6 percent)
Honda (down 4.8 percent)
Nissan (down 1 percent)
Mazda (down 4.3 percent)
Mitsubishi (down 5.7 percent)
Mercedes-Benz (down 0.6 percent)
Volkswagen (down 17.2 percent)
BMW (down 6.4 percent)
Fiat (down 18.9 percent)
Land Rover (down 8 percent)
Mini (down 21.2 percent)
However, there was more than a little upward movement, too:

Fiat Chrysler (up 1.5 percent)
Hyundai (up 11.6 percent)
Kia (up 0.8 percent)
Subaru (up 1.1 percent)
Volvo (up 10.2 percent)
Audi (up 1.6 percent)
Porsche (up 7.3 percent)
Tesla (up 55.3 percent)
Jaguar (up 79.7 percent)


:nerd:

AUDI up

BMW down

interesting..........
 
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One of my boys sells cars....

Went from caking last year, to saying he's eatin hot dogs and beans every night 
laugh.gif
 
These things just aren't affordable man, typical yearly income increase is 3-5 percent while these things increase at a higher rate starting from an already expensive standpoint. I remember Kia and Hyundai ate the last time around, looks like they will again.
 
If they made cars more affordable maybe, but these dealers and manufacturers are crazy of they think people are dropping that kind of money on a car
 
Good. I hope that car sales continue to decline. It's the only way that these car companies will get the message that $30,000 is too much for a mid-size sedan.
 
Tesla and Jaguar doe :wow:

Already got a call about Tesla inviting me to some event to try and get me to trade in my car for a newer one.
 
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Need to cop a new whip by the end of the month.

I hope this means I can get a good deal :lol:
 
Good. I hope that car sales continue to decline. It's the only way that these car companies will get the message that $30,000 is too much for a mid-size sedan.


word. these dealers inflate the prices and charge way too much money for cars. THen sucker ppl in terrible loans and on top of that hit you with bogus fees such as $700 prep fee, $900 document fee, and $600 destination fee. not all car salesmen are asshats so those honest ones will continue to eat. Hope the scumbag ones get what they deserve.
 
Consumers are getting smarter. They are buying used and holding on to their cars for longer periods of time. The banks have been rawdogging us for so long with credit cards, mortgage and loans that people aren't taking it anymore. The system will still make money of the short sighted people that take advantage of "no money down but $600 car monthly payments" but the truly woke have had enough. No longer going into deep debt for something that depreciates in value as soon as you drive it off the lot. Stick it to the man, get educated and buy used.
 
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Hyundai up tho :smokin [emoji]133664207351[/emoji]
Like how Jaguar re-branded and redesigned everything about them now they are doing numbers. Nice


Hyundai looks great these days imo, no hate from me, dare I say better than Toyota and Honda???




The new Jags look soooooooooooooooo sooooo dope. My boy is strongly headed toward Jag in 2017, have you seen the interior also?!?!!!!
 
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Been plotting on that F-Pace for the wife.

samething my buddy wants for his wife

F Pace is SUCH A BARGAIN TOO, unreal.........I even considered.........but I don't want or need a SUV.





Car & Driver gave it 5/5 stars :wow:




BTW I have no real hate for BMW, but I think the decline is because the cars are too ******* expensive..........

Audi sales are going to go up also, from a technology standpoint they are leading the pack...................
 
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There are a lot of potential factors, some that the article touches on and some others that I'll speculate about.

Like it mentions, these numbers are after record sales a year ago.  There are only so many buyers of new cars, so if a relatively large percentage of drivers purchased cars last year, they are no longer going to be in the market for a new car this year.  I'm curious how this Maay's numbers stack up to a typical year...it doesn't mean that this year's sales are bad, just not as astronomical as last year.

There's also a matter of inventory which can hurt sales, especially because often car buyers have identified the car they want, even the color and details but if that car is not available, they may be reluctant to buy.  I know someone who wanted a specific model but held off because there was very limited stock a month ago and they didn't want to settle on something or pay a higher price/lose negotiating power to get that vehicle.  They weren't in NEED of a new car so they figured they would just wait but they'll still probably get it in the next few months.

Also, the housing market was strengthening through last year but has continued through this year so while it may not have a substantial impact, it's possible that segment has dedicated their money towards purchasing a home this year rather than a vehicle.  For many, taking on an additional loan/debt can affect their borrowing power so most with prioritize the house over the car.  

Related note that while it's a little surprising that there hasn't seemed to be much of an impact of an election year on the housing market as is typically a trend, especially with such polarizing candidates, there could be a slight impact on people's willingness to spend.

OR it could mean that we are headed towards a recession. 
laugh.gif
 
BTW I have no real hate for BMW, but I think the decline is because the cars are too ******* expensive..........

Audi sales are going to go up also, from a technology standpoint they are leading the pack...................

Yeah man and one of their most expensive flagship cars that 7 series is getting ******* on by the S Class :lol:...as always so BMW will always take an L there.

Id have to disagree and say Mercedes is leading the pack in technology but Audi is next up
 
Yeah man and one of their most expensive flagship cars that 7 series is getting ******* on by the S Class :lol:...as always so BMW will always take an L there.

Id have to disagree and say Mercedes is leading the pack in technology but Audi is next up

S Class ***** on everybody though............:lol:

As far as big body..........

Benz interiors are crazy these days also.......they got the full panel dash but better tech wise than Audi? ill have to look into that some more I can't agree with that statement
 
S Class ***** on everybody though............:lol:

As far as big body..........

Benz interiors are crazy these days also.......they got the full panel dash but better tech wise than Audi? ill have to look into that some more I can't agree with that statement

:lol: you aint never lie

My fault I gotta take back that statement because its really only cars like the SCoupe, CLS and S550 that have Audi beat on tech. I think Audi def got them beat when it comes to the entry level cars and tech all the way up to the A8. I gotta look more into it
 
prior gen cars were muck.
Confirmed. My S-type and my XJ were the wake up call for me. I promissed myself that I would never buy luxury autos again after those two. Since then I've purchased a honda, dodge, and Chevrolet and all of them have been excellent.


Consumers are getting smarter. They are buying used and holding on to their cars for longer periods of time. The banks have been rawdogging us for so long with credit cards, mortgage and loans that people aren't taking it anymore. The system will still make money of the short sighted people that take advantage of "no money down but $600 car monthly payments" but the truly woke have had enough. No longer going into deep debt for something that depreciates in value as soon as you drive it off the lot. Stick it to the man, get educated and buy used.
agreed. I have saved tens of thousands by purshasing relible, pre-owned cars. I keep them maintained, and plan to drive them untl the wheels fall off.
 
recession always comes during around the end of a presidential term.

the unknown creates an unstable economy and people spend less
 
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