ESPN Insider Request Impact Of Cliff Lee Deal

Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Cliff Lee's trade impact

[table][tr][td][/td][td]
mlb_g_clee_576.jpg
[/td][/tr][tr][td][font=verdana, arial, geneva]The numbers are in: Cliff Lee would make a significant difference in nearly every division race.[/font][/td][/tr][/table]
The Cliff Lee trade talks are "heating up," according to a high-ranking source, because contending teams want to get him in place as quickly as possible.

How much of a difference could Cliff Lee make to a contender?

I posed this question to Stephen Oh of Accuscore and he came up with some interesting statistics, including a short description of Lee's potential impact on each team:

[h4]Lee with Reds[/h4]
Reds with Lee have a 51 to 48 percent edge to win the division over St. Louis.
[table][tr][th=""]Cincinnati Reds[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]42[/td][td]64[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][td]56.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Mets[/h4]
Mets projected to win NL East with Lee.
[table][tr][th=""]New York Mets[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][td]53.7[/td][td]32[/td][td]37[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][td]55.6[/td][td]57[/td][td]65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+3 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]25[/td][td]28[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Yankees[/h4]
Yankees are finishing 6 games ahead of Boston and Tampa in AL East.
[table][tr][th=""]New York Yankees[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]97[/td][td]65[/td][td]59.9[/td][td]65[/td][td]88[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]99[/td][td]63[/td][td]61.1[/td][td]77[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]12[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Phillies[/h4]
With Lee, Phillies go from third in NL East to slight lead over Braves and Mets.
[table][tr][th=""]Philadelphia Phillies[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][td]52.5[/td][td]23[/td][td]29[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][td]53.7[/td][td]34[/td][td]41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]11[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Dodgers[/h4]
Win impact is only one more game, but Dodgers become favorites in the West.
[table][tr][th=""]Los Angeles Dodgers[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]40[/td][td]52[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][td]55.6[/td][td]49[/td][td]62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+1 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]9[/td][td]10[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Rangers[/h4]
Texas becomes a playoff lock with Lee, just behind Yankees for best projected AL record.
[table][tr][th=""]Texas Rangers[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][td]56.8[/td][td]88[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]96[/td][td]66[/td][td]59.3[/td][td]97[/td][td]88[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+4 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]9[/td][td]9[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Twins[/h4]
The Twins go from a projected 1-game lead over Detroit to a 4-game lead with Lee.
[table][tr][th=""]Minnesota Twins[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]49[/td][td]51[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][td]56.8[/td][td]67[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+3 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]18[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]

The percentages, obviously, are higher for those teams involved in three-team races, where a couple of extra wins from Lee could make a big difference. I'd guess that the current leaderboard in terms of trading for Lee looks something like this:

1. Twins
2. Reds
3. Rays
4. Mets
5. Rangers
6. The Field

It's time for the Rays to be bold, writes Joe Henderson of the Tampa Tribune. There are rumors about B.J. Upton, although it's really hard to see how he would satisfy the Mariners right now. Upton is in the midst of another disappointing season while simultaneously climbing the arbitration ladder and becoming more expensive.

Here's one scenario that might be worth Tampa Bay exploring
 
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Cliff Lee's trade impact

[table][tr][td][/td][td]
mlb_g_clee_576.jpg
[/td][/tr][tr][td][font=verdana, arial, geneva]The numbers are in: Cliff Lee would make a significant difference in nearly every division race.[/font][/td][/tr][/table]
The Cliff Lee trade talks are "heating up," according to a high-ranking source, because contending teams want to get him in place as quickly as possible.

How much of a difference could Cliff Lee make to a contender?

I posed this question to Stephen Oh of Accuscore and he came up with some interesting statistics, including a short description of Lee's potential impact on each team:

[h4]Lee with Reds[/h4]
Reds with Lee have a 51 to 48 percent edge to win the division over St. Louis.
[table][tr][th=""]Cincinnati Reds[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]42[/td][td]64[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]91[/td][td]71[/td][td]56.2[/td][td]51[/td][td]75[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]9[/td][td]11[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Mets[/h4]
Mets projected to win NL East with Lee.
[table][tr][th=""]New York Mets[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][td]53.7[/td][td]32[/td][td]37[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][td]55.6[/td][td]57[/td][td]65[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+3 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]25[/td][td]28[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Yankees[/h4]
Yankees are finishing 6 games ahead of Boston and Tampa in AL East.
[table][tr][th=""]New York Yankees[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]97[/td][td]65[/td][td]59.9[/td][td]65[/td][td]88[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]99[/td][td]63[/td][td]61.1[/td][td]77[/td][td]94[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]12[/td][td]6[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Phillies[/h4]
With Lee, Phillies go from third in NL East to slight lead over Braves and Mets.
[table][tr][th=""]Philadelphia Phillies[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]85[/td][td]77[/td][td]52.5[/td][td]23[/td][td]29[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]87[/td][td]75[/td][td]53.7[/td][td]34[/td][td]41[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+2 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.2[/td][td]11[/td][td]12[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Dodgers[/h4]
Win impact is only one more game, but Dodgers become favorites in the West.
[table][tr][th=""]Los Angeles Dodgers[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]40[/td][td]52[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]90[/td][td]72[/td][td]55.6[/td][td]49[/td][td]62[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+1 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]0.6[/td][td]9[/td][td]10[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Rangers[/h4]
Texas becomes a playoff lock with Lee, just behind Yankees for best projected AL record.
[table][tr][th=""]Texas Rangers[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][td]56.8[/td][td]88[/td][td]89[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]96[/td][td]66[/td][td]59.3[/td][td]97[/td][td]88[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+4 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]9[/td][td]9[/td][/tr][/table]

[h4]Lee with Twins[/h4]
The Twins go from a projected 1-game lead over Detroit to a 4-game lead with Lee.
[table][tr][th=""]Minnesota Twins[/th][th=""]Win[/th][th=""]Loss[/th][th=""]%[/th][th=""]Win Div.[/th][th=""]Playoffs[/th][/tr][tr][td]Current Forecast[/td][td]89[/td][td]73[/td][td]54.9[/td][td]49[/td][td]51[/td][/tr][tr][td]w/ Cliff Lee[/td][td]92[/td][td]70[/td][td]56.8[/td][td]67[/td][td]70[/td][/tr][tr][td]Lee Impact[/td][td]+3 wins[/td][td]
[/td][td]1.9[/td][td]18[/td][td]19[/td][/tr][/table]

The percentages, obviously, are higher for those teams involved in three-team races, where a couple of extra wins from Lee could make a big difference. I'd guess that the current leaderboard in terms of trading for Lee looks something like this:

1. Twins
2. Reds
3. Rays
4. Mets
5. Rangers
6. The Field

It's time for the Rays to be bold, writes Joe Henderson of the Tampa Tribune. There are rumors about B.J. Upton, although it's really hard to see how he would satisfy the Mariners right now. Upton is in the midst of another disappointing season while simultaneously climbing the arbitration ladder and becoming more expensive.

Here's one scenario that might be worth Tampa Bay exploring
 
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