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ESPN Insider Request Mauer Contract
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The significance of the Mauer market
Friday, November 13, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
The agent for Joe Mauer wouldn't characterizethe state of the catcher's negotiations with the Twins on Thursday, or discuss them in any way, which isn't a surprise. That's not really RonShapiro's style. We are accustomed to hearing a lot from Scott Boras every winter about what his players deserve, about their standing as iconic playersand about whether owners are committed to winning (i.e., whether they are willing to give record-setting contracts to his iconic players).
As Mauer's contract negotiations with the Twins play out in the months ahead -- and really, in the big picture for baseball, this might be thesport's most important storyline, considering all the current concern about the state of parity and disparity in the majors -- you will not be hearing alot, if anything, from Shapiro. He has never believed in that.
Shapiro wrote a book called "ThePower of Nice: How to Negotiate So Everyone Wins -- Especially You!" The fact that Shapiro is representing Mauer should not be dismissed as a factorin these negotiations, because while the catcher -- whose talents are unique, when cast against history -- is ultimately going to get a whole lot of money nomatter where he winds up, Shapiro's history of negotiating suggests that money will not be the only issue.
Mauer is, of course, a Minnesota native; he was drafted and developed and has thrived for his hometown team. Presumably, this will be a major considerationfor him, as he weighs the offers he is given by the Twins in the months ahead. The question of whether the Twins will be able to compete will be part of theequation.
Shapiro has said in the past, in speaking at seminars, "My approach is an approach predicated on not having to beat the other side, but to gain theobjectives of my clients."
It's easy to say this, but Shapiro has walked the walk with this as his philosophy. He represented two superstars who played their entire careers withthe same team -- Kirby Puckett and Cal Ripken -- and along the way, he pushed thefinancial envelope, as well. He negotiated a tentative deal for Puckett, but as the negotiations neared the finish line, Carl Pohlad pulled the plug on theproposal that Shapiro and GM Andy MacPhail had discussed. Puckett went into free agency, and the Twins wound up re-signing him for a deal that wasrecord-setting at the time, and more than they would have had to pay him under the terms of the proposed deal.
Shapiro engaged in some tough talks with the Orioles over Ripken, who also got a record-setting deal to stay with his hometown team. So the Mauer talkswon't simply be a matter of the catcher's surrendering his negotiating leverage to stay with the Twins; Minnesota must be prepared to pay.
The Twins will go into this, however, knowing that they have a shot, and that Mauer (and Shapiro) won't be focused only on the great offer they knowthey could get, after the 2010 season, from the Yankees or the Red Sox. But Shapiro isn't going to talk about that with the media. He will talk with Mauer,and the Twins, and we'll see where it goes from here.
[h3]The Granderson market[/h3]
Even if Curtis Granderson wasn't capable of posting 30-30 seasons, he would bea star, because of his personality and his history of good works and his intelligence; he'll be part of the baseball landscape long after he retires, andthis is all part of why the Tigers would be reluctant to just give away the center fielder. He has become, in many ways, the face of the franchise.
But teams looking at Granderson also will pause before making a deal for him, because there are concerns among some talent evaluators about the trends inhis performance, and whether he might be overpriced in the years to come (Granderson will make at least $25.5 million over the next three seasons).
Granderson's OPS slipped 78 points last season, from .858 to .780, and it has dipped about 133 points since 2007. Early in Granderson's career, Tigers manager Jim Leyland limited the left-handed hitter's at-batsagainst left-handed pitching. But now, as a veteran, he is playing against left-handed pitchers -- and really struggling with it. In 2009, Granderson was33-for-180 (.183) against left-handed pitchers, with a .484 OPS and 42 strikeouts.
Granderson is renowned for his work ethic and for his willingness to make changes, but so far, hitting against left-handed pitchers has been serious aproblem for him. "He's basically an out," said one evaluator. So while teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles and others will lookat the possibility of making a deal for Granderson, it's unlikely that anybody is going to hand over a couple of big-time prospects for him because of hislefty/righty splits.
The Tigers are alteringtheir business model, writes Lynn Henning.
[h3]The non-tendered[/h3]
I've written here before about how executives expect a very high number of players who won't be tendered contracts.
Here are the year-by-year numbers of players who haven't been tendered contracts:
2009: 42 (going into the 2009 season)
2008: 43
2007: 28
2006: 50
2005: 41
2004: 58
2003: 46
2002: 34
2001: 27
2000: 28
1999: 39
1998: 32
1997: 28
1996: 48
1995: 45
1994: 35
1993: 39
1992: 16
1991: 13
There are 210arbitration-eligible players.
[h3]The GM meetings[/h3]
You get the sense that a whole lot of executives are dealing with information overload as they come out of the two days of meetings in Chicago, where theystarted to try to get their minds around all of the factors in play in this winter's market: the enormous ocean of free agents, the looming possibility ofdozens of non-tenders, the fact that teams like the Reds and Tigers are ready to unload players because of money concerns.
"Normally, you might look to be aggressive and identify a couple of moves you want to make," said one NL executive. "But if you do that thisyear, you might wind up looking a little silly and finding out in a couple of months that you really overpaid. It might be a year when you'll want to waitto get past the non-tender date [Dec. 12] to get a better sense of where the market is."
[h3]Around the league[/h3]
• Longtime reliever Doug Brocail has had quite a life journey, through 15 seasonsin the majors and a life-threatening heart procedure and a couple of Tommy John surgeries -- and now his journey has him out on hunting trips with his wife andfive daughters; all of his kids are avid hunters. Madison, his 15-year-old daughter, recently took down a 13-pointer in Texas.
It's unclear, however, whether Brocail will pitch again, whether teams will take another shot with him. "Would I love to play? Absolutely,"said Brocail, who figures to stay in baseball in one way or another.
• The Indians are willing to move Kerry Wood, who has one year remaining on histwo-year, $20 million deal. Signing Wood made all the sense in the world for them a year ago, when it seemed the Indians might compete in the AL Central. Butin the aftermath of the trades of Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, Cleveland is in rebuilding mode and thus Wood is an expensive bauble. Given thatthere are so many closers available on the market, however, the Indians might not be able to move Wood's contract without eating some money.
• The Mets have come out of the early conversations knowing that they will have the opportunity to move Luis Castillo, who still has two years remaining on the four-year, $25 million deal he signedtwo winters ago. Castillo was considered untradeable a year ago, but coming off a solid season in which he had a .387 on-base percentage, he is a moreattractive option now. If the Mets do move Castillo, they will probably be aggressive in pursuing Orlando Hudson.
• The topic of instant replay was barely touched the other day when general managers got together to discuss various items on their agenda. But for some inthe room, it wasn't because of a lack of interest in expanding instant replay; rather, some consider the topic a waste of time until commissioner Bud Seligis on board. "Would I like to do more with instant replay? Absolutely," said one executive. "But there won't be any changes made until Budgoes along with it, and that's not the way the winds are blowing now. It made more sense to talk about other stuff."
[h3]The sign says ...[/h3]
In the World Series, the Yankees pitchers and catchers got together over and over and over to discuss signs. I e-mailed former major league catcher Brent Mayne about his diagnosis of all this, and this is his reply: "Yeah, that was atruckload of mound meetings wasn't it? You'd be right in assuming it was related to the Phils' allegedly stealing signs (which probably stems fromthe fact that a player from the Yankees -- A-Rod -- is widely thought of as the biggest stealer of signs. Maybe he had 'em paranoid?
"First off, let me tell you that on all the teams I played on, with all the great sign-thieve teammates, rarely if ever were signs stolen and relayedto the hitter. Even when we did have them, most of the guys didn't want to know. The only exception was when a pitcher was giving away the pitches in someway that the hitter could see WITH HIS OWN EYES while he was in the box. Maybe his glove was pointed in a certain direction, or he gripped the balldifferently, etc., something that would tip the hitter off as to what was coming. If that was the case, most everybody jumped on board. But if it was a matterof stealing the sign from second or first and relaying it to the hitter, there wouldn't be too many takers.
"I personally thought it was more of a security blanket for guys, or something to keep them occupied. In other words, for guys like A-Rod or Shawn Green, or CarlosDelgado (who were really into picking off signs), I think they just felt more comfortable and in power when they felt like they were seeing something(whether they really did or not).
"Now, the big problem is the pitcher. It's really frustrating for them when they think the other team has something. They get all messed up becausethey're not sure if they're making bad pitches, or their stuff is bad -- or does the other team know what is coming? If for no other reason than thepitcher's peace of mind, you've got to take control of the situation and figure out a good sign system...and change it often. Does that mean you needto kill the grass between the mound and the plate by going out there eight billion times a game? Nope.
"For me, I just had a simple indicator that would change the sequence of the signs. An indicator that I could do (say, grab my cup or scratch my head)that everybody would see -- pitcher and middle infielders -- that would change the sign or sequence at any moment. That way, if we thought the opposition wasonto something or we'd just given up a couple hard hit balls, we could change the sequence on the fly without the other team knowing and without wastingtime.
"This is a simple explanation, but the solutions can get pretty complicated. The point is, though, that changing the signs without the oppositionknowing is possible and can be a weapon, especially if the other team is relaying signals and you change them without their knowing... Imagine a hitter sittingon a fastball and instead getting a bowel-locking slider. A beautiful thing!
"So in my mind, if you've got somewhat creative signals (not just a second sign or something) and have the ability to change them at any moment,and use this sequence even when a guy's on first (or all the time if you think they've got some kind of video/TV thing going), you should be justfine.
"Remind me sometime later to tell you the story of the game I caught with no signs. I caught one whole game where the pitchers just threw whatever theywanted and I just reacted (we thought, and I think we were correct, that the other team had cameras). Surprisingly, it wasn't that difficult."
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's hard to say exactly whether therereally were serious candidates for the Nationals job other than Jim Riggleman. Bobby Valentine is being cast as one of the two or three finalists, and yetat no point did he ever meet with the Washington ownership. Thomas Boswell writes that Riggleman is the man for the plan. I covered Riggleman when hemanaged the Padres in 1993 and 1994, and it is good to see him get a more extended opportunity than the interim thing he had with the Seattle Mariners at the end of 2008. This was his dream job, writes Mark Zuckerman, andI can vouch for that; he occasionally mentioned, in those years far gone, that he'd like a shot at managing a team in the Maryland area.
2. The Mariners will look deeply into the possible signing of John Lackey, writes Larry Stone, withinthis rumor-sifting piece.
3. Tim Hudson got his wish, David O'Brien writes.
4. The Royals signed an infielder.
5. The Twins are willing to consider Joe Crede at third base despite his back trouble,writes Joe Christensen.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Roy Halladay's status presents a test for newToronto GM Alex Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos has changed the makeup of the scouting staff, writes Bob Elliott.
• The D-backs are in a fight to berelevant, writes Dan Bickley.
• Brian Cashman can't afford to be emotional as he makes decisions about the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
• Jim Thome would be open to returning to the White Sox, he tellsMark Gonzales.
• Chase Utley won a Silver Slugger Award;so did Brian McCann and Albert Pujols and a couple of Jaysand RyanBraun.
• Limited range hurt Kevin Kouzmanoff in the Gold Glove conversation, writes TimSullivan.
• Jose Cruz helped Michael Bourn win a Gold Glove, writes Jerome Solomon.
• Aroldis Chapman told his defection story again.
• The Cardinals still have plenty of young assets despite their rentaldeals, writes Jeff Gordon.
• There are a number ofstorylines to ponder for the Red Sox, writes John Tomase.
• John Wetteland was hospitalized, and the Mariners have indicatedthey are ready to do whatever they can to help Wetteland. Hehad an extremely high heart rate. He was always different, writes Joel Sherman.
• A Vanderbilt running back is redshirting.
Friday, November 13, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry
The agent for Joe Mauer wouldn't characterizethe state of the catcher's negotiations with the Twins on Thursday, or discuss them in any way, which isn't a surprise. That's not really RonShapiro's style. We are accustomed to hearing a lot from Scott Boras every winter about what his players deserve, about their standing as iconic playersand about whether owners are committed to winning (i.e., whether they are willing to give record-setting contracts to his iconic players).
As Mauer's contract negotiations with the Twins play out in the months ahead -- and really, in the big picture for baseball, this might be thesport's most important storyline, considering all the current concern about the state of parity and disparity in the majors -- you will not be hearing alot, if anything, from Shapiro. He has never believed in that.
Shapiro wrote a book called "ThePower of Nice: How to Negotiate So Everyone Wins -- Especially You!" The fact that Shapiro is representing Mauer should not be dismissed as a factorin these negotiations, because while the catcher -- whose talents are unique, when cast against history -- is ultimately going to get a whole lot of money nomatter where he winds up, Shapiro's history of negotiating suggests that money will not be the only issue.
Mauer is, of course, a Minnesota native; he was drafted and developed and has thrived for his hometown team. Presumably, this will be a major considerationfor him, as he weighs the offers he is given by the Twins in the months ahead. The question of whether the Twins will be able to compete will be part of theequation.
Shapiro has said in the past, in speaking at seminars, "My approach is an approach predicated on not having to beat the other side, but to gain theobjectives of my clients."
It's easy to say this, but Shapiro has walked the walk with this as his philosophy. He represented two superstars who played their entire careers withthe same team -- Kirby Puckett and Cal Ripken -- and along the way, he pushed thefinancial envelope, as well. He negotiated a tentative deal for Puckett, but as the negotiations neared the finish line, Carl Pohlad pulled the plug on theproposal that Shapiro and GM Andy MacPhail had discussed. Puckett went into free agency, and the Twins wound up re-signing him for a deal that wasrecord-setting at the time, and more than they would have had to pay him under the terms of the proposed deal.
Shapiro engaged in some tough talks with the Orioles over Ripken, who also got a record-setting deal to stay with his hometown team. So the Mauer talkswon't simply be a matter of the catcher's surrendering his negotiating leverage to stay with the Twins; Minnesota must be prepared to pay.
The Twins will go into this, however, knowing that they have a shot, and that Mauer (and Shapiro) won't be focused only on the great offer they knowthey could get, after the 2010 season, from the Yankees or the Red Sox. But Shapiro isn't going to talk about that with the media. He will talk with Mauer,and the Twins, and we'll see where it goes from here.
[h3]The Granderson market[/h3]
Even if Curtis Granderson wasn't capable of posting 30-30 seasons, he would bea star, because of his personality and his history of good works and his intelligence; he'll be part of the baseball landscape long after he retires, andthis is all part of why the Tigers would be reluctant to just give away the center fielder. He has become, in many ways, the face of the franchise.
But teams looking at Granderson also will pause before making a deal for him, because there are concerns among some talent evaluators about the trends inhis performance, and whether he might be overpriced in the years to come (Granderson will make at least $25.5 million over the next three seasons).
Granderson's OPS slipped 78 points last season, from .858 to .780, and it has dipped about 133 points since 2007. Early in Granderson's career, Tigers manager Jim Leyland limited the left-handed hitter's at-batsagainst left-handed pitching. But now, as a veteran, he is playing against left-handed pitchers -- and really struggling with it. In 2009, Granderson was33-for-180 (.183) against left-handed pitchers, with a .484 OPS and 42 strikeouts.
Granderson is renowned for his work ethic and for his willingness to make changes, but so far, hitting against left-handed pitchers has been serious aproblem for him. "He's basically an out," said one evaluator. So while teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Orioles and others will lookat the possibility of making a deal for Granderson, it's unlikely that anybody is going to hand over a couple of big-time prospects for him because of hislefty/righty splits.
The Tigers are alteringtheir business model, writes Lynn Henning.
[h3]The non-tendered[/h3]
I've written here before about how executives expect a very high number of players who won't be tendered contracts.
Here are the year-by-year numbers of players who haven't been tendered contracts:
2009: 42 (going into the 2009 season)
2008: 43
2007: 28
2006: 50
2005: 41
2004: 58
2003: 46
2002: 34
2001: 27
2000: 28
1999: 39
1998: 32
1997: 28
1996: 48
1995: 45
1994: 35
1993: 39
1992: 16
1991: 13
There are 210arbitration-eligible players.
[h3]The GM meetings[/h3]
You get the sense that a whole lot of executives are dealing with information overload as they come out of the two days of meetings in Chicago, where theystarted to try to get their minds around all of the factors in play in this winter's market: the enormous ocean of free agents, the looming possibility ofdozens of non-tenders, the fact that teams like the Reds and Tigers are ready to unload players because of money concerns.
"Normally, you might look to be aggressive and identify a couple of moves you want to make," said one NL executive. "But if you do that thisyear, you might wind up looking a little silly and finding out in a couple of months that you really overpaid. It might be a year when you'll want to waitto get past the non-tender date [Dec. 12] to get a better sense of where the market is."
[h3]Around the league[/h3]
• Longtime reliever Doug Brocail has had quite a life journey, through 15 seasonsin the majors and a life-threatening heart procedure and a couple of Tommy John surgeries -- and now his journey has him out on hunting trips with his wife andfive daughters; all of his kids are avid hunters. Madison, his 15-year-old daughter, recently took down a 13-pointer in Texas.
It's unclear, however, whether Brocail will pitch again, whether teams will take another shot with him. "Would I love to play? Absolutely,"said Brocail, who figures to stay in baseball in one way or another.
• The Indians are willing to move Kerry Wood, who has one year remaining on histwo-year, $20 million deal. Signing Wood made all the sense in the world for them a year ago, when it seemed the Indians might compete in the AL Central. Butin the aftermath of the trades of Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee, Cleveland is in rebuilding mode and thus Wood is an expensive bauble. Given thatthere are so many closers available on the market, however, the Indians might not be able to move Wood's contract without eating some money.
• The Mets have come out of the early conversations knowing that they will have the opportunity to move Luis Castillo, who still has two years remaining on the four-year, $25 million deal he signedtwo winters ago. Castillo was considered untradeable a year ago, but coming off a solid season in which he had a .387 on-base percentage, he is a moreattractive option now. If the Mets do move Castillo, they will probably be aggressive in pursuing Orlando Hudson.
• The topic of instant replay was barely touched the other day when general managers got together to discuss various items on their agenda. But for some inthe room, it wasn't because of a lack of interest in expanding instant replay; rather, some consider the topic a waste of time until commissioner Bud Seligis on board. "Would I like to do more with instant replay? Absolutely," said one executive. "But there won't be any changes made until Budgoes along with it, and that's not the way the winds are blowing now. It made more sense to talk about other stuff."
[h3]The sign says ...[/h3]
In the World Series, the Yankees pitchers and catchers got together over and over and over to discuss signs. I e-mailed former major league catcher Brent Mayne about his diagnosis of all this, and this is his reply: "Yeah, that was atruckload of mound meetings wasn't it? You'd be right in assuming it was related to the Phils' allegedly stealing signs (which probably stems fromthe fact that a player from the Yankees -- A-Rod -- is widely thought of as the biggest stealer of signs. Maybe he had 'em paranoid?
"First off, let me tell you that on all the teams I played on, with all the great sign-thieve teammates, rarely if ever were signs stolen and relayedto the hitter. Even when we did have them, most of the guys didn't want to know. The only exception was when a pitcher was giving away the pitches in someway that the hitter could see WITH HIS OWN EYES while he was in the box. Maybe his glove was pointed in a certain direction, or he gripped the balldifferently, etc., something that would tip the hitter off as to what was coming. If that was the case, most everybody jumped on board. But if it was a matterof stealing the sign from second or first and relaying it to the hitter, there wouldn't be too many takers.
"I personally thought it was more of a security blanket for guys, or something to keep them occupied. In other words, for guys like A-Rod or Shawn Green, or CarlosDelgado (who were really into picking off signs), I think they just felt more comfortable and in power when they felt like they were seeing something(whether they really did or not).
"Now, the big problem is the pitcher. It's really frustrating for them when they think the other team has something. They get all messed up becausethey're not sure if they're making bad pitches, or their stuff is bad -- or does the other team know what is coming? If for no other reason than thepitcher's peace of mind, you've got to take control of the situation and figure out a good sign system...and change it often. Does that mean you needto kill the grass between the mound and the plate by going out there eight billion times a game? Nope.
"For me, I just had a simple indicator that would change the sequence of the signs. An indicator that I could do (say, grab my cup or scratch my head)that everybody would see -- pitcher and middle infielders -- that would change the sign or sequence at any moment. That way, if we thought the opposition wasonto something or we'd just given up a couple hard hit balls, we could change the sequence on the fly without the other team knowing and without wastingtime.
"This is a simple explanation, but the solutions can get pretty complicated. The point is, though, that changing the signs without the oppositionknowing is possible and can be a weapon, especially if the other team is relaying signals and you change them without their knowing... Imagine a hitter sittingon a fastball and instead getting a bowel-locking slider. A beautiful thing!
"So in my mind, if you've got somewhat creative signals (not just a second sign or something) and have the ability to change them at any moment,and use this sequence even when a guy's on first (or all the time if you think they've got some kind of video/TV thing going), you should be justfine.
"Remind me sometime later to tell you the story of the game I caught with no signs. I caught one whole game where the pitchers just threw whatever theywanted and I just reacted (we thought, and I think we were correct, that the other team had cameras). Surprisingly, it wasn't that difficult."
[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. It's hard to say exactly whether therereally were serious candidates for the Nationals job other than Jim Riggleman. Bobby Valentine is being cast as one of the two or three finalists, and yetat no point did he ever meet with the Washington ownership. Thomas Boswell writes that Riggleman is the man for the plan. I covered Riggleman when hemanaged the Padres in 1993 and 1994, and it is good to see him get a more extended opportunity than the interim thing he had with the Seattle Mariners at the end of 2008. This was his dream job, writes Mark Zuckerman, andI can vouch for that; he occasionally mentioned, in those years far gone, that he'd like a shot at managing a team in the Maryland area.
2. The Mariners will look deeply into the possible signing of John Lackey, writes Larry Stone, withinthis rumor-sifting piece.
3. Tim Hudson got his wish, David O'Brien writes.
4. The Royals signed an infielder.
5. The Twins are willing to consider Joe Crede at third base despite his back trouble,writes Joe Christensen.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Roy Halladay's status presents a test for newToronto GM Alex Anthopoulos. Anthopoulos has changed the makeup of the scouting staff, writes Bob Elliott.
• The D-backs are in a fight to berelevant, writes Dan Bickley.
• Brian Cashman can't afford to be emotional as he makes decisions about the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.
• Jim Thome would be open to returning to the White Sox, he tellsMark Gonzales.
• Chase Utley won a Silver Slugger Award;so did Brian McCann and Albert Pujols and a couple of Jaysand RyanBraun.
• Limited range hurt Kevin Kouzmanoff in the Gold Glove conversation, writes TimSullivan.
• Jose Cruz helped Michael Bourn win a Gold Glove, writes Jerome Solomon.
• Aroldis Chapman told his defection story again.
• The Cardinals still have plenty of young assets despite their rentaldeals, writes Jeff Gordon.
• There are a number ofstorylines to ponder for the Red Sox, writes John Tomase.
• John Wetteland was hospitalized, and the Mariners have indicatedthey are ready to do whatever they can to help Wetteland. Hehad an extremely high heart rate. He was always different, writes Joel Sherman.
• A Vanderbilt running back is redshirting.
