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[JD617]

Signing Mauer a percentage play

Monday, November 23, 2009 | Feedback | Print Entry

There are a couple of Dodgers fans in Aberdeen, S.D., as I learned over the last week, and a lot of Orioles fans, because of the team's past minor league affiliation there. There is at least one fan of the Angels, a young man of about 10 who likes how Erick Aybar plays. Others root for the Milwaukee Brewers. And yes, there are Yankees fans who have proudly emerged from the muddy fields of barley and corn (harvesters are getting stuck all over the place because of the staggering October rains) with caps of interlocking N's and Y's to annoy their neighbors.

Getty Images

Keeping Joe Mauer is an easy call, but the side effects will persist.

But mostly, South Dakota is the realm of the Minnesota Twins, and last week, Aberdeen's Twins fans asked the same question over and over and over again: Are they going to re-sign Joe Mauer?

And I'd say that my best guess is yes, the Twins will open the checkbook and spend big dollars to keep the superstar catcher, who will be told on Monday, officially, that he is the winner of the AL Most Valuable Player Award. He and Albert Pujols are baseball's best hitters now, and in time, he might be regarded as the greatest catcher ever. He is, of course, a hometown guy for the Twins, and the last thing the team wants, as it begins play in a publicly funded park, is to have the imminent departure of its most marketable player hang over the franchise throughout the 2010 season.

The Twins would never give Mauer an A-Rod kind of deal, but they know that he and agent Ron Shapiro aren't going to give them a blue-light special, either (and neither will the leadership of the Players Association, which has been aggressively leaning on agents to muster good contracts and essentially is making it clear that it will scour any deal it considers to be less than worthy.)

The team will undoubtedly offer him a record-setting deal for his position, and if he signs, there would appear to be a pretty good chance that he will make a larger percentage of his team's payroll than any player in the majors by the 2012 season. Mauer will want to take advantage of his place in the market, but at the same time, I don't think he'll try to scrape loose every nickel that is available to him (and let's face it -- in order to do that, he'd probably have to go to Boston or the Yankees.)

But through the process, the central part of the Twins' evaluation must be in addressing the question of whether it's smart business to devote such an inordinate portion of their payroll to one player. And for their purposes, it is worth it for them to study the example of Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies.

Before the 2003 season, the Rockies' first baseman signed a nine-year, $141.5 million contract with the Colorado Rockies; he earned $10.6 million in 2003, $11.6 million in 2004, $12.6 million in 2005 and, over the past four seasons, he has made $16.6 million annually. He will earn $16.6 million in 2010, and then $19.1 million in 2011, when he'll start the season at 37 years old.

The team holds a $23 million option for 2012, which it will presumably reject, choosing instead the $4.6 million buyout.

Helton batted .264 in his injury-plagued 2008 season, but otherwise, he has never hit less than .302 in the first seven seasons of the deal, and he has consistently posted a high on-base percentage and racked up 40-double, 15-homer seasons. He has been a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman throughout his contract, and he has always done everything possible to honor his deal, generally playing well, representing the organization well, and working diligently through rehabilitation when he has dealt with back trouble.

But somewhere along the way, the Rockies came to regard Helton's contract as an albatross -- and by 2006, it was regarded within the industry as an example of bad business, mostly because Helton's salary ate up such an enormous portion of the team's payroll. Consider Helton's salary percentage, using the payroll figures contained within Cot's Baseball Contracts.

Helton's salary as percent of team payroll
Year	Helton	Payroll	Percent
2003	$10.6M	$67.1M	15.8
2004	11.6	65.4	17.8
2005	12.6	48.2	26.1
2006	16.6	41.2	40.3
2007	16.6	54.4	30.6
2008	16.6	68.7	24.2
2009	16.6	75.2	22.0

In the first four years of Helton's deal, the Rockies won 74, 68, 67 and 76 games. His enormous salary strangled their ability to make moves with their major league roster, and they talked about trading Helton to the Red Sox. If the deal had gone through, Colorado would have eaten a significant portion of the Helton's salary.

But by 2007, the Rockies began benefiting from the organization's devotion to player development, which provided players like Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki, and the Rockies made it to the World Series; this season, they reached the playoffs. Going forward, Colorado is set up nicely. "They really have a lot of balance in their farm system," a GM mused in early November. "They've got a nice feeder system in place. [GM] Dan [O'Dowd] has done a nice job reshaping their focus."

So as the Twins, who have always had a payroll similar to that of the Rockies, mull over their offer to Mauer, they can draw some lessons from the Helton contract:

1. Carrying a player who absorbs such an enormous share of the team's payroll will not work unless you develop a farm system that consistently churns out excellent prospects.
2. If the Twins sign Mauer, they will have to be prepared to make difficult choices with other veterans, such as Justin Morneau. Just as the Rockies could not afford to keep Holliday, the Twins probably will forgo any shot of keeping top-flight position players other than Mauer.
3. There is an excellent chance that at the end of his contract, Mauer's salary would probably far outweigh his actual production and market value, as is the case with Helton.

Can the Twins sign Mauer to a big-money contract and make it work? Absolutely. He will be firmly entrenched as the face of the franchise, which will have tremendous financial benefits, as the Orioles can attest from their investment in Cal Ripken. And even if Mauer changes positions sometime in the next five years, he would seem to have a very good chance to continue on as one of the best left-handed hitters in the AL.

Would there be high risk? Undoubtedly. If Mauer suffered a significant injury, the Twins' ability to compete would be greatly hampered.

You can bet all of this is being discussed behind closed doors in Minnesota's front office.
[h3]Mauer's MVP year[/h3]
Mauer is expected to win the MVP on Monday, but that isn't the Twins' greatest concern. Mauer is likely the MVP, writes George King.

It will be ridiculous if Mauer isn't a unanimous selection for Most Valuable Player. He's a Gold Glove catcher for the team with the 24th-ranked payroll in the majors, and this is how he finished up in the offensive categories, in AL ranks:

BA: .365 (1st)
OBP: .444 (1st)
Slug Pct: .587 (1st)
Runs Created: 138 (1st) (Here's a link on this stat.)


Since 1980, there haven't been many who have won the pseudo Triple Crown of batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage:

Joe Mauer - 2009 Twins
Barry Bonds - 2004 Giants
Barry Bonds - 2002 Giants
Todd Helton - 2000 Rockies
Larry Walker - 1999 Rockies
George Brett - 1980 Royals


Mauer's batting average was the second-highest ever for a catcher:

Babe Phelps - .367 (1936)
Joe Mauer - .365 (2009)
Mike Piazza - .362 (1997)
Bill Dickey - .362 (1936)
Chief Meyers - .358 (1912)

[h3]Moves, deals and decisions[/h3]
1. The Braves are seeking to bolster their offense, writes David O'Brien.

2. The Rays are going to be aggressive in looking for a new catcher, writes Joe Smith.

3. The Astros are going to take a go-slow approach with Jason Castro and Chris Johnson, writes Richard Justice.

4. The Rays' stadium issue is flaring again, writes Michael Sasso, with talk of a new stadium just over the Howard Frankland Bridge in downtown Tampa and the West Shore area. The Rays' leadership smartly tabled the issue of a new ballpark at about the time that the economy took an ugly turn, but eventually, the team is going to press this issue. The city of St. Petersburg reminded everybody this week that the Rays are legally required to play at the Trop for the next 17 years, writes Stephen Nolgren.

5. The Rockies have expressed preliminary interest in Brian Schneider, writes Troy Renck.

6. I found this fascinating: The Mariners are going to look at Dustin Ackley at second base. Hey, it worked for the Cardinals and Skip Schumaker, so why not give it a look?

7. Padres GM Jed Hoyer met with the agent for Adrian Gonzalez.

8. No one should be surprised if there's a trade between the Mariners and Tigers involving Curtis Granderson, writes Lynn Henning. Totally agree: Granderson would be a great fit for the Seattle blueprint. Granderson would also be a great fit for the Cubs, writes Rick Morrissey.

9. The Cubs are looking to block some rooftop signage.

10. The White Sox are close to a deal with Omar Vizquel, writes Dave van Dyck. That will be a little like having Ozzie Guillen on the field; Vizquel, like Guillen, is smart, passionate and opinionated, and when working with the young middle infielders of the White Sox, he will let them know when they have made a mistake.

11. Johnny Damon is not discouraged by the slow pace of his talks with the Yankees, writes Mark Feinsand.

12. The Mets might play some games in Puerto Rico in 2010, writes Adam Rubin; this would entail the Marlins moving some of their home games.

13. The Mets are among the teams looking at Ben Sheets, writes Bart Hubbuch.

14. The Orioles are expected to take a deliberate approach to assessing the free-agent market, writes Dan Connolly. Hearing that from a lot of teams.
[h3]Dings and dents[/h3]
J.D. Drew recently had shoulder surgery, writes John Tomase.
[h3]Other stuff[/h3]
• Curtis Granderson is looking to host a reality series. He'd be an interesting guy to follow around.

• Manny Acta wants to become one of the best managers in baseball, writes Paul Hoynes.

• John Fay considers some of the options the Reds have in their farm system.

• Joe Morgan will sell cars.

• Tim Kawakami saw good signs in Tim Lincecum's awkward press conference on Thursday.

• Some Jays' fans are not happy about an increase in ticket prices, writes Morgan Campbell.

• Here are thumbnails on the seven players the Yankees added to their 40-man roster, courtesy of Marc Carig.

• The Jays could benefit from hiring Pat Gillick, writes Dave Perkins.

• Gary Sheffield says he's preparing for another season. With so many free agents available, it would seem that the best Sheffield could hope for would be a very low-cost contract, and he'll have the same choice that a lot of older stars have had to make the last few years -- play for very little money or not play at all.

• Fans swung for the fences at the Big A last week, as Cindy Murphy writes.

• The Cubs' next major hire: a marketing guru.

• Former Rays owner Vince Naimoli is giving his side of the story.

• Miller Park will get some upgrades for the winter.

• The Royals are bringing out the powder blue hats for 2010.

 

[RyGuy45]

Thanks for the post!

While there is some validity there, I'm not sure why you use Todd Helton's case as the example. The Rockies gave $142 million to Helton at basically 30years old. He turns 37 next season and is scheduled to make $16.6 next year and then $19.1 the following year, and then a buyout they have to pay the followingyear.

Like we have said how many times in pro sports when these huge contracts are signed, it's rarely ever a good sign to back load a contract that sees theplayer (no matter how good he is) making insane amounts of money into his late 30's. Helton has had a great career no doubt but would anyone outside of NYor BOS want to pay him a guaranteed $36 million the next two seasons right now? And we could have guessed that back in 2003.

In Mauer's case he is 26 years old. That's a big difference. I really do not know how much the team should give him. I am not, and will likely neverbe, in the camp that says back up the truck and give Mauer whatever he wants. As the article states that only means this cheap organization cuts more players,likely does not also sign Morneau, and also gets killed if Mauer ever gets hurt (which has happened). Mauer deserves to be paid...but I am not seeing how thisteam is going to pony up upwards of $20+ million a year. And as we have gone over in here many times, the players union has likely told Mauer and his agent theresponsibility he has to his fellow and future players. You get as much money as you can. It's not often "as much money as you can" equalsstaying in a small to mid market for superstars.

Does Joe and his agent take say $120 million from the Twins knowing his agent has likely had backroom talks with the Yanks stating they would give him over$200 if he was ever available? That is the responsibility that lies at his feet right now, even with this being his hometown team. It's the sad state ofMajor League Baseball and that is nothing new.

As usual, I'm just glad I'm not Bill Smith.