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ESPN Insider Request NBA Free Agency
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[h1]2010 Free Agency Watch: The top 15[/h1]
Let the 2010 NBA free-agent frenzy begin!
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh headline what should be one of the greatest free-agent classes ever.
Though historically, most big free agents don't change teams, this year could be different.
LeBron's Cavs have, once again, come up short in the playoffs. Wade's Heat haven't gotten past the first round since they won the title in 2006. Bosh's Raptors failed to make the playoffs again this year.
If each player wants to get serious about a title, they might have to look elsewhere. Given the number of high-profile teams -- the Knicks, Heat, Bulls and the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets -- with lots of money, things could get very interesting.
The plotlines are dramatic, and in many ways, intertwined. Can the Cavs hold onto their hometown star? Can the Knicks score a superstar or two in an effort to bring some honor back to the Garden? Can the Nets -- now led by a Russian billionaire -- remake the team into a premier destination in Brooklyn? Will friends like James, Wade and Bosh decide to hook up together to create a permanent NBA dream team?
Here's our latest take on who could be available July 1, plus a look at where they might land:
[h3]Group I: The unrestricted free agents[/h3]
Note: This group of players can hit the open market with no strings attached. Some have an "early termination option" or a "player option" -- those players can choose to become unrestricted free agents this summer. This list includes only those players most likely to enter free agency.
Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO) | team option (TO)
James[h2]1. LeBron James, Cavaliers[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Cavs, Heat, Knicks, Nets, Mavs
The buzz surrounding LeBron's potential foray into free agency has been the loudest in NBA history, and the consensus continues to be remarkably fluid. One day the word -- from LeBron's camp and other parties -- is that he's staying in Cleveland. The next day, we hear that the Bulls and Knicks are the favorites. And today it sounds like the Heat could be the front-runners.
Of course, the first question to address is whether he would actually leave the Cavaliers. LeBron is an Ohio product and has shown a special loyalty to Akron and the surrounding area. It won't be easy for him to defect and leave the Cleveland sports scene in shambles.
The Cavs underperformed again in the playoffs -- with LeBron taking much of the blame, despite the fact his supporting cast in Cleveland was appreciably weaker than that of the other title contenders. A combo of Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao just isn't going to cut it, as we can now see.
[h4]POTENTIAL 2011 FREE AGENTS[/h4]
• Yao Ming, C, Rockets
• Tony Parker, PG, Spurs
• Tim Duncan, C, Spurs
• Caron Butler, G/F, Mavs
• David West, F, Hornets
• T.J. Ford, PG, Pacers
• Richard Jefferson, F, Spurs
• Tayshaun Prince, F, Pistons
• Jason Richardson, SG, Suns
• Andrei Kirilenko, F, Jazz
• Kenyon Martin, PF, Nuggets
• Troy Murphy, PF, Pacers
• Mike Dunleavy, F, Pacers
• Nick Collison, F, Thunder
• Samuel Dalembert, C, Kings
• Michael Redd, SG, Bucks
• Complete list of 2011 free agents
For months, sources close to LeBron told me he was struggling with the idea of abandoning his hometown and most likely would stay because of, if nothing else, loyalty. However, the competition for LeBron will be fierce.
The Knicks have been the most-publicized and aggressive potential suitors, clearing salary at a rapid rate to put themselves in position to pay James. But the Knicks' talent depletion may discourage LeBron from signing on -- even if they add a second star, the Knicks might not have enough to contend for a title.
The Nets have more young talent, and a new owner who promises to spend whatever it takes to bring the team a championship. The team's eventual home of Brooklyn could also be of real appeal to LeBron. But without a true star to pair with him, it isn't clear that the Nets' future is any brighter than that of the Cavs.
The Heat can offer LeBron a chance to play with Dwyane Wade in a great locale. Team president Pat Riley has been aggressive in clearing more cap room to lure another big-time free agent to Miami to potentially pair with LeBron and Wade.
The Mavs will go a different route, offering a sign-and-trade deal that could pair LeBron with a former MVP, Dirk Nowitzki, and a former MVP runner-up, Jason Kidd.
The Clippers will give LeBron the chance to play in Los Angeles, and a young supporting cast headlined by Blake Griffin, the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NBA draft.
But at the moment, the favorites appear to be the Chicago Bulls. Several NBA GMs told me after the Cavs were eliminated from the playoffs that they believe James will leave the Cavs for the Bulls. With the Bulls recently dumping Kirk Hinrich's salary, the threat looks as dangerous as ever. The Bulls are close to being far enough under the cap to offer two free agents a max deal. And if James wants to team up with young talent in a huge market, the Bulls seem to be the best fit.
Last time I wrote a free-agent update, I said that if I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron is going to leave the Cavs. I still believe that, and believe that the Bulls are the most likely destination. His best chance at a title would probably come from Chicago or Dallas. His best chance at being a "global icon" probably would come from New York or New Jersey. And perhaps the most interesting destination he could choose would be Miami.
I don't think anyone knows what he'll end up deciding, but it should be a lot of fun (unless you're a Cavs fan, that is) watching the process unfold.
Wade[h2]2. Dwyane Wade, Heat[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Knicks, Nets, Bulls
There hasn't been nearly the hype around Wade's potential departure that there has been regarding LeBron's. Why? One, because most people in the league believe Wade wants to re-sign with Miami. In recent weeks, he's made it clear that he wants to stay in Miami if he can. And two, Wade turned 28 in January and has a history of injuries. He's not quite the young franchise cornerstone LeBron is.
But the assumptions that Wade will merely re-up with the Heat might not end up being correct. Sources say Wade is clearly losing patience in Miami. So if Pat Riley is unable to lure a superstar to South Beach to play alongside Wade, the Heat guard may very well leave.
Of course, the Heat will have a strong hometown advantage. Currently, the team has just two players under contract and tons of cap space to pay Wade and another max player, and still have room to offer another big contract to a free agent. Given the desirability of South Beach and Wade's preference to stay home, the expectations are that Miami will be a hot destination for other free agents.
There are plenty of other teams interested in Wade, however. The Knicks and Nets, especially, will come courting if LeBron goes elsewhere. If they can't have LeBron, Wade is the next best thing. I'm not sure Wade would leave for New York, a team with a weak supporting cast, but the Nets could be very intriguing to him given the young talent already on the team.
Bosh[h2]3. Chris Bosh, Raptors
[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Heat, Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Rockets
Bosh has been pegged since last year as the young star free agent most likely to bolt his team this summer. After the Raptors failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season, all signs now point to him leaving. On Monday, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo said "it's likely" Bosh will leave. So, the question is: Where will he go?
The Bulls and Heat appear to be the most interesting options for Bosh. A Bosh-LeBron combination in Chicago or a Bosh-Wade combo in Miami sounds very formidable.
The Knicks and Nets are potential players, too. Both teams need his size and will throw max offers his way.
There are also a couple of dark horses. The Lakers have shown interest since the February trade deadline and could offer the Raptors a deal that would give them Andrew Bynum in return. That way the Raptors could sign-and-trade Bosh, giving him an extra year and around $30 million extra on his contract. That has to be appealing to Bosh.
The Rockets have also shown interest in Bosh, but they would have to work out a sign-and-trade deal to make it happen. The same holds true for teams like the Mavs, Spurs (what about a Tony Parker-for-Bosh swap?) and Pistons.
Stoudemire[h2]4. Amare Stoudemire, Suns (ETO)[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Nets, Bulls, Rockets, Knicks, Suns
When he's healthy, Stoudemire is as good as any other big man in the league. Just 27 years old, he's hyper-athletic and a monster on the offensive end. But questions surrounding his knees, an eye injury and his attitude have hurt his stock a bit and led to the Suns' placing him on the trading block the past couple of years.
The Suns held off on an Amare trade at this February's deadline and really got rolling, ultimately winning 54 games and earning a spot in the Western Conference finals against the Lakers. The word out of Phoenix at the time was that the chemistry had never been better and, for the first time in a long time, the odds of Amare staying in Phoenix were better than 50 percent. However, things have gone downhill in recent weeks. Suns GM Steve Kerr stepped down from running the team and owner Robert Sarver has taken over negotiations.
The Suns have been unwilling to offer Stoudemire a max deal, in part because his past injuries might make his contract uninsurable. If the Suns won't offer him the max, the chances are good that he'll find a home somewhere else.
Should he decide to look elsewhere, the Heat and Rockets showed the most interest in Stoudemire in February. In fact, the Rockets almost worked out a last-minute trade for him, but ran out of time. If Houston offers the Suns the right package as part of a sign-and-trade, they could be players again. We also expect teams like the Bulls and Nets to make a play if their other plans don't work out.
Nowitzki[h2]5. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (ETO)[/h2]
Potential destinations: Mavericks, Heat, Bulls, Knicks
Nowitzki turned 31 in June but is still playing like an All-Star. The question is, how much longer will that last? Dallas is hoping to get a few more seasons out of him, and Mark Cuban sounds confident that come July 1, the Mavs and Nowitzki will agree on a deal.
But the Mavs don't want to give him the maximum. If another suitor comes calling, it's not inconceivable that Dirk could walk away, just like Steve Nash did when Cuban balked at breaking the bank for him.
Miami and New York might be very interested if they can't land one of the top four. But given the Mavs' commitments to Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd over the next few years, I'd expect them to lock up Dirk, too.
Boozer[h2]6. Carlos Boozer, Jazz[/h2]
Potential destinations: Nets, Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Pistons, Jazz
Boozer had another good season for Utah, but his future there is very much in doubt. The Jazz are paying a lot of money to backup power forward Paul Millsap, and it's doubtful they can afford to keep Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur and Boozer.
You can expect the Jazz to explore moving Kirilenko or Okur in an attempt to clear more space under the luxury-tax threshold for Boozer. But it's not a given that Boozer wants to return.
He'd like to play in either Miami or New Jersey and could wind up there, depending on what LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Amare do. If Miami goes another direction, I'm told the Pistons still have interest via a sign-and-trade deal.
Johnson[h2] 7. Joe Johnson, Hawks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Hawks
Johnson's poor playoff performance -- along with some disparaging words directed at Hawks fans -- might have hurt his best chance at a massive payday. Teams have to be asking themselves whether Johnson will be worth the money he's going to want -- including the Hawks, who were horrible in the playoffs and may decide it's time to shake things up.
On the positive side, Johnson can score in a lot of ways and can play both backcourt positions. He turns 29 in June, so he still has four or five good years left in him. Johnson has already shown interest in the Knicks, Heat and Bulls. If one of those teams fails to land one of the players higher on the list, Johnson might luck out despite the negatives.
Lee[h2]8. David Lee, Knicks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Nets, Heat, Raptors, Knicks
Lee was a coveted restricted free agent in 2009, but a lack of teams with cap room combined with his restricted status forced him to sign a one-year deal with the Knicks. Lee put up huge numbers again in coach Mike D'Antoni's system this past season, but will he be able to cash in this summer?
It really depends on what Bosh, Boozer and Stoudemire do. Once those players have chosen their homes, Lee should be the top big man on the market.
If the Knicks can't land LeBron, Bosh, Boozer or Stoudemire, they'll probably re-sign Lee -- but he clearly looks to be the fifth option for them. The Knicks are also hoping Lee could be an important pawn in a potential sign-and-trade deal for Bosh, or if everything else falls through, another team that covets him. If New York does strike gold on a big free agent, Lee's probably changing uniforms. The Bulls, Nets and Heat are potential destinations.
O'Neal[h2]9. Shaquille O'Neal, Cavs[/h2]
Potential destinations: Mavs, Spurs, Cavs
In Cleveland, Shaq had to play second fiddle to LeBron to try to prove he could still win a title. But ultimately the experiment failed. Shaq is clearly slowing down, and at times he looked like he hindered the Cavs more than he helped them. He turned 38 in March, and has played more games than any other active player in the league.
Still, there's probably a GM or two willing to offer him millions on a two- or three-year contract.
Allen[h2]10. Ray Allen, Celtics[/h2]
Potential Destinations: Celtics, Bulls, Knicks, Nets, Heat
Allen's game continues to slowly decline, but he remains one of the best shooters in the league. The Celtics would certainly like to lock him up, but they aren't the only team interested.
There have been lots of rumblings around the league that the team that locks up LeBron will come running to Allen, who would be the perfect floor spacer for James. He's 34 years old, so I don't expect a long-term deal.
Other notables: John Salmons, Bucks (ETO); Raymond Felton, Bobcats; Channing Frye, Suns; Josh Howard, Wizards; Udonis Haslem, Heat; Tracy McGrady, Knicks; Randy Foye, Wizards; Travis Outlaw, Clippers; Al Harrington, Knicks; Mike Miller, Wizards; Nate Robinson, Celtics; Brendan Haywood, Mavs; Luke Ridnour, Bucks; Steve Blake, Clippers; Derek Fisher, Lakers; Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs; Jermaine O'Neal, Heat; Brad Miller, Bulls; Larry Hughes, Bobcats; Kyle Korver, Jazz; Darko Milicic, Timberwolves; Drew Gooden, Clippers; Chris Duhon, Knicks; Sergio Rodriguez, Knicks; Craig Smith, Clippers; Roger Mason, Spurs; Earl Watson, Pacers; Eddie House, Knicks; Antoine Wright, Raptors; Amir Johnson, Raptors; Raja Bell, Warriors; Bobby Simmons, Nets; Rasual Butler, Clippers; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kwame Brown, Pistons; Joe Alexander, Bulls; Oleksiy Pecherov, Timberwolves; Javaris Crittenton, Wizards; Ian Mahinmi, Spurs; Adam Morrison, Lakers; J.R. Giddens, Knicks.
[h3]Group II: The restricted free agents[/h3]
Only six first-rounders from the draft class of 2006 -- Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Andrea Bargnani, Thabo Sefolosha and Renaldo Balkman -- signed contract extensions last summer, leaving a huge number of restricted free agents this summer. As we've seen in recent years, it's very difficult for restricted free agents to move. Don't expect things to change this year, even though there will be more teams with serious cap space.
Gay[h2]1. Rudy Gay, Grizzlies[/h2]
Potential destinations: Knicks, Nets, Heat, Clippers, Wizards, Grizzlies
With so many teams now under the cap, it's pretty much guaranteed that at least one club will make a big run at Gay this summer.
The Grizzlies have been running a bare-bones operation for the past few years, and it's unclear whether owner Michael Heisley is ready to break the bank to match a huge offer for Gay. The 23-year-old swingman is a terrific athlete and an accomplished shooter who can put the ball in the basket, but his game is a bit one-dimensional at the moment.
The Knicks, Nets, Heat, Clippers and Wizards have all shown interest.
Thomas[h2]2. Tyrus Thomas, Bobcats[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bobcats, Knicks, Heat
Thomas had another rocky season, and despite playing better after a midseason trade from Chicago to Charlotte, he remains an enigma. He's terrific one night, then disappears the next. And with a reputation as a locker-room problem, Thomas may struggle to get a long-term deal.
Scola[h2]3. Luis Scola, Rockets[/h2]
Potential destinations: Rockets, Heat, Knicks, Raptors
Scola proved once again this season to be a legit threat in the paint for the Rockets. He's already 30, so he doesn't have more than one more big contract in him. Given that the Rockets have traded away Carl Landry and used up all of their cap space, I expect they'll re-sign Scola. However, the Argentine big man could see some interest from some of the big-cap-room teams if they strike out with their respective A or B lists.
Brewer[h2]4. Ronnie Brewer, Grizzlies[/h2]
Potential destinations: Grizzlies, Kings, Mavs
Brewer's numbers aren't sexy, but he's a versatile guard who can defend and get to the basket. If he ever figured out how to shoot a jumper, he could be really good.
The Jazz, who are in a financial crunch, swapped him to Memphis at the trade deadline for a protected first-round pick in 2011. I don't think the Grizzlies would have given up a pick unless they had the intention of re-signing him.
Childress[h2]5. Josh Childress, Hawks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Hawks, Knicks, Nets
Childress went back to Greece for a second straight season after failing to be wowed by an offer from an NBA team. He's been solid there, and a number of NBA teams that saw him play in the Euroleague Final Four believe he once again could be a terrific role player in the U.S.
The Hawks still hold his restricted rights, but by now, no one thinks they actually would match an offer for him unless they lost Joe Johnson. Look for a team like the Knicks to try to use some of their cash on Childress if they can't land a star.
Other notables: Kyle Lowry, Rockets; Jordan Farmar, Lakers; J.J. Redick, Magic; Hilton Armstrong, Rockets; Josh Boone, Nets.
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[h1]2010 Free Agency Watch: The top 15[/h1]
Let the 2010 NBA free-agent frenzy begin!
LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh headline what should be one of the greatest free-agent classes ever.
Though historically, most big free agents don't change teams, this year could be different.
LeBron's Cavs have, once again, come up short in the playoffs. Wade's Heat haven't gotten past the first round since they won the title in 2006. Bosh's Raptors failed to make the playoffs again this year.
If each player wants to get serious about a title, they might have to look elsewhere. Given the number of high-profile teams -- the Knicks, Heat, Bulls and the soon-to-be Brooklyn Nets -- with lots of money, things could get very interesting.
The plotlines are dramatic, and in many ways, intertwined. Can the Cavs hold onto their hometown star? Can the Knicks score a superstar or two in an effort to bring some honor back to the Garden? Can the Nets -- now led by a Russian billionaire -- remake the team into a premier destination in Brooklyn? Will friends like James, Wade and Bosh decide to hook up together to create a permanent NBA dream team?
Here's our latest take on who could be available July 1, plus a look at where they might land:
[h3]Group I: The unrestricted free agents[/h3]
Note: This group of players can hit the open market with no strings attached. Some have an "early termination option" or a "player option" -- those players can choose to become unrestricted free agents this summer. This list includes only those players most likely to enter free agency.
Key: player option (PO) | early termination option (ETO) | team option (TO)
James[h2]1. LeBron James, Cavaliers[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Cavs, Heat, Knicks, Nets, Mavs
The buzz surrounding LeBron's potential foray into free agency has been the loudest in NBA history, and the consensus continues to be remarkably fluid. One day the word -- from LeBron's camp and other parties -- is that he's staying in Cleveland. The next day, we hear that the Bulls and Knicks are the favorites. And today it sounds like the Heat could be the front-runners.
Of course, the first question to address is whether he would actually leave the Cavaliers. LeBron is an Ohio product and has shown a special loyalty to Akron and the surrounding area. It won't be easy for him to defect and leave the Cleveland sports scene in shambles.
The Cavs underperformed again in the playoffs -- with LeBron taking much of the blame, despite the fact his supporting cast in Cleveland was appreciably weaker than that of the other title contenders. A combo of Mo Williams, Antawn Jamison and Anderson Varejao just isn't going to cut it, as we can now see.
[h4]POTENTIAL 2011 FREE AGENTS[/h4]
• Yao Ming, C, Rockets
• Tony Parker, PG, Spurs
• Tim Duncan, C, Spurs
• Caron Butler, G/F, Mavs
• David West, F, Hornets
• T.J. Ford, PG, Pacers
• Richard Jefferson, F, Spurs
• Tayshaun Prince, F, Pistons
• Jason Richardson, SG, Suns
• Andrei Kirilenko, F, Jazz
• Kenyon Martin, PF, Nuggets
• Troy Murphy, PF, Pacers
• Mike Dunleavy, F, Pacers
• Nick Collison, F, Thunder
• Samuel Dalembert, C, Kings
• Michael Redd, SG, Bucks
• Complete list of 2011 free agents
For months, sources close to LeBron told me he was struggling with the idea of abandoning his hometown and most likely would stay because of, if nothing else, loyalty. However, the competition for LeBron will be fierce.
The Knicks have been the most-publicized and aggressive potential suitors, clearing salary at a rapid rate to put themselves in position to pay James. But the Knicks' talent depletion may discourage LeBron from signing on -- even if they add a second star, the Knicks might not have enough to contend for a title.
The Nets have more young talent, and a new owner who promises to spend whatever it takes to bring the team a championship. The team's eventual home of Brooklyn could also be of real appeal to LeBron. But without a true star to pair with him, it isn't clear that the Nets' future is any brighter than that of the Cavs.
The Heat can offer LeBron a chance to play with Dwyane Wade in a great locale. Team president Pat Riley has been aggressive in clearing more cap room to lure another big-time free agent to Miami to potentially pair with LeBron and Wade.
The Mavs will go a different route, offering a sign-and-trade deal that could pair LeBron with a former MVP, Dirk Nowitzki, and a former MVP runner-up, Jason Kidd.
The Clippers will give LeBron the chance to play in Los Angeles, and a young supporting cast headlined by Blake Griffin, the No. 1 pick in the 2009 NBA draft.
But at the moment, the favorites appear to be the Chicago Bulls. Several NBA GMs told me after the Cavs were eliminated from the playoffs that they believe James will leave the Cavs for the Bulls. With the Bulls recently dumping Kirk Hinrich's salary, the threat looks as dangerous as ever. The Bulls are close to being far enough under the cap to offer two free agents a max deal. And if James wants to team up with young talent in a huge market, the Bulls seem to be the best fit.
Last time I wrote a free-agent update, I said that if I were a betting man, I'd wager that LeBron is going to leave the Cavs. I still believe that, and believe that the Bulls are the most likely destination. His best chance at a title would probably come from Chicago or Dallas. His best chance at being a "global icon" probably would come from New York or New Jersey. And perhaps the most interesting destination he could choose would be Miami.
I don't think anyone knows what he'll end up deciding, but it should be a lot of fun (unless you're a Cavs fan, that is) watching the process unfold.
Wade[h2]2. Dwyane Wade, Heat[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Knicks, Nets, Bulls
There hasn't been nearly the hype around Wade's potential departure that there has been regarding LeBron's. Why? One, because most people in the league believe Wade wants to re-sign with Miami. In recent weeks, he's made it clear that he wants to stay in Miami if he can. And two, Wade turned 28 in January and has a history of injuries. He's not quite the young franchise cornerstone LeBron is.
But the assumptions that Wade will merely re-up with the Heat might not end up being correct. Sources say Wade is clearly losing patience in Miami. So if Pat Riley is unable to lure a superstar to South Beach to play alongside Wade, the Heat guard may very well leave.
Of course, the Heat will have a strong hometown advantage. Currently, the team has just two players under contract and tons of cap space to pay Wade and another max player, and still have room to offer another big contract to a free agent. Given the desirability of South Beach and Wade's preference to stay home, the expectations are that Miami will be a hot destination for other free agents.
There are plenty of other teams interested in Wade, however. The Knicks and Nets, especially, will come courting if LeBron goes elsewhere. If they can't have LeBron, Wade is the next best thing. I'm not sure Wade would leave for New York, a team with a weak supporting cast, but the Nets could be very intriguing to him given the young talent already on the team.
Bosh[h2]3. Chris Bosh, Raptors
[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Heat, Lakers, Knicks, Nets, Rockets
Bosh has been pegged since last year as the young star free agent most likely to bolt his team this summer. After the Raptors failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season, all signs now point to him leaving. On Monday, Raptors GM Bryan Colangelo said "it's likely" Bosh will leave. So, the question is: Where will he go?
The Bulls and Heat appear to be the most interesting options for Bosh. A Bosh-LeBron combination in Chicago or a Bosh-Wade combo in Miami sounds very formidable.
The Knicks and Nets are potential players, too. Both teams need his size and will throw max offers his way.
There are also a couple of dark horses. The Lakers have shown interest since the February trade deadline and could offer the Raptors a deal that would give them Andrew Bynum in return. That way the Raptors could sign-and-trade Bosh, giving him an extra year and around $30 million extra on his contract. That has to be appealing to Bosh.
The Rockets have also shown interest in Bosh, but they would have to work out a sign-and-trade deal to make it happen. The same holds true for teams like the Mavs, Spurs (what about a Tony Parker-for-Bosh swap?) and Pistons.
Stoudemire[h2]4. Amare Stoudemire, Suns (ETO)[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Nets, Bulls, Rockets, Knicks, Suns
When he's healthy, Stoudemire is as good as any other big man in the league. Just 27 years old, he's hyper-athletic and a monster on the offensive end. But questions surrounding his knees, an eye injury and his attitude have hurt his stock a bit and led to the Suns' placing him on the trading block the past couple of years.
The Suns held off on an Amare trade at this February's deadline and really got rolling, ultimately winning 54 games and earning a spot in the Western Conference finals against the Lakers. The word out of Phoenix at the time was that the chemistry had never been better and, for the first time in a long time, the odds of Amare staying in Phoenix were better than 50 percent. However, things have gone downhill in recent weeks. Suns GM Steve Kerr stepped down from running the team and owner Robert Sarver has taken over negotiations.
The Suns have been unwilling to offer Stoudemire a max deal, in part because his past injuries might make his contract uninsurable. If the Suns won't offer him the max, the chances are good that he'll find a home somewhere else.
Should he decide to look elsewhere, the Heat and Rockets showed the most interest in Stoudemire in February. In fact, the Rockets almost worked out a last-minute trade for him, but ran out of time. If Houston offers the Suns the right package as part of a sign-and-trade, they could be players again. We also expect teams like the Bulls and Nets to make a play if their other plans don't work out.
Nowitzki[h2]5. Dirk Nowitzki, Mavericks (ETO)[/h2]
Potential destinations: Mavericks, Heat, Bulls, Knicks
Nowitzki turned 31 in June but is still playing like an All-Star. The question is, how much longer will that last? Dallas is hoping to get a few more seasons out of him, and Mark Cuban sounds confident that come July 1, the Mavs and Nowitzki will agree on a deal.
But the Mavs don't want to give him the maximum. If another suitor comes calling, it's not inconceivable that Dirk could walk away, just like Steve Nash did when Cuban balked at breaking the bank for him.
Miami and New York might be very interested if they can't land one of the top four. But given the Mavs' commitments to Shawn Marion and Jason Kidd over the next few years, I'd expect them to lock up Dirk, too.
Boozer[h2]6. Carlos Boozer, Jazz[/h2]
Potential destinations: Nets, Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Pistons, Jazz
Boozer had another good season for Utah, but his future there is very much in doubt. The Jazz are paying a lot of money to backup power forward Paul Millsap, and it's doubtful they can afford to keep Millsap, Andrei Kirilenko, Mehmet Okur and Boozer.
You can expect the Jazz to explore moving Kirilenko or Okur in an attempt to clear more space under the luxury-tax threshold for Boozer. But it's not a given that Boozer wants to return.
He'd like to play in either Miami or New Jersey and could wind up there, depending on what LeBron, Wade, Bosh and Amare do. If Miami goes another direction, I'm told the Pistons still have interest via a sign-and-trade deal.
Johnson[h2] 7. Joe Johnson, Hawks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Heat, Knicks, Bulls, Nets, Hawks
Johnson's poor playoff performance -- along with some disparaging words directed at Hawks fans -- might have hurt his best chance at a massive payday. Teams have to be asking themselves whether Johnson will be worth the money he's going to want -- including the Hawks, who were horrible in the playoffs and may decide it's time to shake things up.
On the positive side, Johnson can score in a lot of ways and can play both backcourt positions. He turns 29 in June, so he still has four or five good years left in him. Johnson has already shown interest in the Knicks, Heat and Bulls. If one of those teams fails to land one of the players higher on the list, Johnson might luck out despite the negatives.
Lee[h2]8. David Lee, Knicks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bulls, Nets, Heat, Raptors, Knicks
Lee was a coveted restricted free agent in 2009, but a lack of teams with cap room combined with his restricted status forced him to sign a one-year deal with the Knicks. Lee put up huge numbers again in coach Mike D'Antoni's system this past season, but will he be able to cash in this summer?
It really depends on what Bosh, Boozer and Stoudemire do. Once those players have chosen their homes, Lee should be the top big man on the market.
If the Knicks can't land LeBron, Bosh, Boozer or Stoudemire, they'll probably re-sign Lee -- but he clearly looks to be the fifth option for them. The Knicks are also hoping Lee could be an important pawn in a potential sign-and-trade deal for Bosh, or if everything else falls through, another team that covets him. If New York does strike gold on a big free agent, Lee's probably changing uniforms. The Bulls, Nets and Heat are potential destinations.
O'Neal[h2]9. Shaquille O'Neal, Cavs[/h2]
Potential destinations: Mavs, Spurs, Cavs
In Cleveland, Shaq had to play second fiddle to LeBron to try to prove he could still win a title. But ultimately the experiment failed. Shaq is clearly slowing down, and at times he looked like he hindered the Cavs more than he helped them. He turned 38 in March, and has played more games than any other active player in the league.
Still, there's probably a GM or two willing to offer him millions on a two- or three-year contract.
Allen[h2]10. Ray Allen, Celtics[/h2]
Potential Destinations: Celtics, Bulls, Knicks, Nets, Heat
Allen's game continues to slowly decline, but he remains one of the best shooters in the league. The Celtics would certainly like to lock him up, but they aren't the only team interested.
There have been lots of rumblings around the league that the team that locks up LeBron will come running to Allen, who would be the perfect floor spacer for James. He's 34 years old, so I don't expect a long-term deal.
Other notables: John Salmons, Bucks (ETO); Raymond Felton, Bobcats; Channing Frye, Suns; Josh Howard, Wizards; Udonis Haslem, Heat; Tracy McGrady, Knicks; Randy Foye, Wizards; Travis Outlaw, Clippers; Al Harrington, Knicks; Mike Miller, Wizards; Nate Robinson, Celtics; Brendan Haywood, Mavs; Luke Ridnour, Bucks; Steve Blake, Clippers; Derek Fisher, Lakers; Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Cavs; Jermaine O'Neal, Heat; Brad Miller, Bulls; Larry Hughes, Bobcats; Kyle Korver, Jazz; Darko Milicic, Timberwolves; Drew Gooden, Clippers; Chris Duhon, Knicks; Sergio Rodriguez, Knicks; Craig Smith, Clippers; Roger Mason, Spurs; Earl Watson, Pacers; Eddie House, Knicks; Antoine Wright, Raptors; Amir Johnson, Raptors; Raja Bell, Warriors; Bobby Simmons, Nets; Rasual Butler, Clippers; Dorell Wright, Heat; Kwame Brown, Pistons; Joe Alexander, Bulls; Oleksiy Pecherov, Timberwolves; Javaris Crittenton, Wizards; Ian Mahinmi, Spurs; Adam Morrison, Lakers; J.R. Giddens, Knicks.
[h3]Group II: The restricted free agents[/h3]
Only six first-rounders from the draft class of 2006 -- Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rajon Rondo, Andrea Bargnani, Thabo Sefolosha and Renaldo Balkman -- signed contract extensions last summer, leaving a huge number of restricted free agents this summer. As we've seen in recent years, it's very difficult for restricted free agents to move. Don't expect things to change this year, even though there will be more teams with serious cap space.
Gay[h2]1. Rudy Gay, Grizzlies[/h2]
Potential destinations: Knicks, Nets, Heat, Clippers, Wizards, Grizzlies
With so many teams now under the cap, it's pretty much guaranteed that at least one club will make a big run at Gay this summer.
The Grizzlies have been running a bare-bones operation for the past few years, and it's unclear whether owner Michael Heisley is ready to break the bank to match a huge offer for Gay. The 23-year-old swingman is a terrific athlete and an accomplished shooter who can put the ball in the basket, but his game is a bit one-dimensional at the moment.
The Knicks, Nets, Heat, Clippers and Wizards have all shown interest.
Thomas[h2]2. Tyrus Thomas, Bobcats[/h2]
Potential destinations: Bobcats, Knicks, Heat
Thomas had another rocky season, and despite playing better after a midseason trade from Chicago to Charlotte, he remains an enigma. He's terrific one night, then disappears the next. And with a reputation as a locker-room problem, Thomas may struggle to get a long-term deal.
Scola[h2]3. Luis Scola, Rockets[/h2]
Potential destinations: Rockets, Heat, Knicks, Raptors
Scola proved once again this season to be a legit threat in the paint for the Rockets. He's already 30, so he doesn't have more than one more big contract in him. Given that the Rockets have traded away Carl Landry and used up all of their cap space, I expect they'll re-sign Scola. However, the Argentine big man could see some interest from some of the big-cap-room teams if they strike out with their respective A or B lists.
Brewer[h2]4. Ronnie Brewer, Grizzlies[/h2]
Potential destinations: Grizzlies, Kings, Mavs
Brewer's numbers aren't sexy, but he's a versatile guard who can defend and get to the basket. If he ever figured out how to shoot a jumper, he could be really good.
The Jazz, who are in a financial crunch, swapped him to Memphis at the trade deadline for a protected first-round pick in 2011. I don't think the Grizzlies would have given up a pick unless they had the intention of re-signing him.
Childress[h2]5. Josh Childress, Hawks[/h2]
Potential destinations: Hawks, Knicks, Nets
Childress went back to Greece for a second straight season after failing to be wowed by an offer from an NBA team. He's been solid there, and a number of NBA teams that saw him play in the Euroleague Final Four believe he once again could be a terrific role player in the U.S.
The Hawks still hold his restricted rights, but by now, no one thinks they actually would match an offer for him unless they lost Joe Johnson. Look for a team like the Knicks to try to use some of their cash on Childress if they can't land a star.
Other notables: Kyle Lowry, Rockets; Jordan Farmar, Lakers; J.J. Redick, Magic; Hilton Armstrong, Rockets; Josh Boone, Nets.
