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[h3]Putting zig zag theory to the test 
[/h3]
April, 16, 2010
Apr 16
10:52
AM ET
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Bettors have theories -- lots of theories -- on everything from NCAA expansion to health care to the best brunch in all of Las Vegas (Bally's Sterling Brunch; at least that was the consensus this past February, the last time I had 12 wise guys around a table).
Naturally, those theories tend to get adjusted based on a variety of circumstances. But when it comes to betting the NBA playoffs, one theory has been a constant since Wes Unseld was battling Jack Sikma in tape-delayed NBA Finals. And it will help dictate point spreads throughout the postseason.
It's called the zig zag theory, because everything in Vegas has to sound like some scam cooked up by Damon Runyan characters over highballs at the 21 Club. The zig zag is an amalgam of historical trends, bettors' logic and bookmakers' strategy. Here's how it works: If a team covers the spread in one game, bet against it to cover in the next. The reason being, in the playoffs, the team that just got the worst of it will be extra-motivated in the following game. "How much we actually fudge the line is situational depending on the teams involved," says The Sports Club's lead bookmaker, Pete Korner. "But we do make concessions, because it's what the bettors look at and use for their next play. So we have to be mindful of it."
For example, right now the Cleveland Cavaliers are favored by 11 over the Chicago Bulls. Let's say LeBron and Co. blow up Chicago by 26 points. You'd think the line on the same two teams meeting in the same stadium 48 hours later would bounce up, to at least 12 or maybe even 13. But, more than likely -- depending on where the game closes; it was down from 11.5 -- it will be closer to single digits.
I wrote about this last year and used the Atlanta Hawks-Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs-Dallas Mavericks series to illuminate the zig zag process: In Game 1, the Hawks were favored by five and won by 26. And yet, in Game 2, the spread actually dropped half a point, to Hawks minus-4.5. Most of the wise guy money still came in on the Heat, and they easily covered. With the Mavs and Spurs, San Antonio was a 4.5-point fave in Game 1 and lost. But what happened in Game 2? The Spurs opened as a 5.5-point fave and got bet up by professionals to six-point favorites. They won going away by 21.
A couple rules to remember if you're tracking the zig zag theory: One, obviously it doesn't apply to the first game in a series. Two, it resets whenever the series changes locations. Which means you have only a few opportunities in each showdown to take advantage. And that leads to another challenge: Is there anything to take advantage of?
While all the wise guys still incorporate the zig zag into their playoff power ratings, a lot of them don't think it gives them much of a play anymore. Bookmakers are too wise to the theory. "If everyone is aware and has the same thought process, then whatever value there might have been is taken away," says Teddy Covers.
And that's what bettors have to look out for. With bookmakers like Korner incorporating the bettors' logic into the point spread, will gamblers be playing inflated or deflated lines? Over the next couple of months -- seriously, how is any postseason two months long? -- the bloggy blog will peek in on the zig zag theory to see how it's taking shape. It's time we learned once and for all if it still works, or if it's time to make an adjustment.
(But we won't start until the week of April 26. I'm on vacation next week.)
[/h3]April, 16, 2010
Apr 16
10:52
AM ET
Comment Print http:///sendtofriend.espn.go.com/sendtofriend/SendToFriend?URL=http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/...Putting zig zag theory to the test&id=5098788">http://sendtofriend.espn....he test...le,noscrollbars,width=400,height=500');return false;" target="_blank" href="#">Email Share
Bettors have theories -- lots of theories -- on everything from NCAA expansion to health care to the best brunch in all of Las Vegas (Bally's Sterling Brunch; at least that was the consensus this past February, the last time I had 12 wise guys around a table).
Naturally, those theories tend to get adjusted based on a variety of circumstances. But when it comes to betting the NBA playoffs, one theory has been a constant since Wes Unseld was battling Jack Sikma in tape-delayed NBA Finals. And it will help dictate point spreads throughout the postseason.
It's called the zig zag theory, because everything in Vegas has to sound like some scam cooked up by Damon Runyan characters over highballs at the 21 Club. The zig zag is an amalgam of historical trends, bettors' logic and bookmakers' strategy. Here's how it works: If a team covers the spread in one game, bet against it to cover in the next. The reason being, in the playoffs, the team that just got the worst of it will be extra-motivated in the following game. "How much we actually fudge the line is situational depending on the teams involved," says The Sports Club's lead bookmaker, Pete Korner. "But we do make concessions, because it's what the bettors look at and use for their next play. So we have to be mindful of it."
For example, right now the Cleveland Cavaliers are favored by 11 over the Chicago Bulls. Let's say LeBron and Co. blow up Chicago by 26 points. You'd think the line on the same two teams meeting in the same stadium 48 hours later would bounce up, to at least 12 or maybe even 13. But, more than likely -- depending on where the game closes; it was down from 11.5 -- it will be closer to single digits.
I wrote about this last year and used the Atlanta Hawks-Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs-Dallas Mavericks series to illuminate the zig zag process: In Game 1, the Hawks were favored by five and won by 26. And yet, in Game 2, the spread actually dropped half a point, to Hawks minus-4.5. Most of the wise guy money still came in on the Heat, and they easily covered. With the Mavs and Spurs, San Antonio was a 4.5-point fave in Game 1 and lost. But what happened in Game 2? The Spurs opened as a 5.5-point fave and got bet up by professionals to six-point favorites. They won going away by 21.
A couple rules to remember if you're tracking the zig zag theory: One, obviously it doesn't apply to the first game in a series. Two, it resets whenever the series changes locations. Which means you have only a few opportunities in each showdown to take advantage. And that leads to another challenge: Is there anything to take advantage of?
While all the wise guys still incorporate the zig zag into their playoff power ratings, a lot of them don't think it gives them much of a play anymore. Bookmakers are too wise to the theory. "If everyone is aware and has the same thought process, then whatever value there might have been is taken away," says Teddy Covers.
And that's what bettors have to look out for. With bookmakers like Korner incorporating the bettors' logic into the point spread, will gamblers be playing inflated or deflated lines? Over the next couple of months -- seriously, how is any postseason two months long? -- the bloggy blog will peek in on the zig zag theory to see how it's taking shape. It's time we learned once and for all if it still works, or if it's time to make an adjustment.
(But we won't start until the week of April 26. I'm on vacation next week.)