The Knicks play the Heat Friday night
(8 p.m. ET, ESPN), and undoubtedly you'll hear a lot of comparisons heading into the game, given the teams' former rivalry and the Knicks' slightly less successful imitation of Miami's three-superstars strategy.
And that's where things get a bit weird. Because inevitably, we're going to focus on the difference between the Heat's top-ranked offense and the Knicks' 24th-ranked offense, which is a bit odd juxtaposed against the reputations of the two coaches and organizations.
Inevitably, everybody will point out that the Knicks' big problem is their lack of point guard production, and, in particular, their inability to get the ball to the Knicks' high-scoring frontcourt players. To an extent this is correct;
Toney Douglas has been disastrously bad and
Iman Shumpert erratic, and one could argue that
Tyson Chandler and
Amare Stoudemire have been starved for service.
But here's the thing: Once you break down the numbers it's hard to find the supporting evidence. For starters, Miami is not exactly awash in John Stockton clones itself, so pointing that out as the defining difference between a great offense and a bad one has some glaring holes to begin with.
Besides, it's not even clear if the Knicks are lacking in the distribution department. New York has assists on 55.4 percent of its baskets this season. The Heat have assists on 55.7 percent of theirs. You can have a great offense even if the wing players are isolation a fair amount.
Break down the other numbers and you get similar results. The Knicks and Heat are virtually identical in offensive rebounds, turnovers and free throws. In fact, New York has a very small advantage in all three.
The only reason the Heat are first and the Knicks are 24th is because Miami's shots go in the basket and New York's don't.
It's an elemental truth -- we think much more highly of a team's offense and its plays when the ball goes through the net at the end of it. Neither Miami nor New York plays a particularly attractive style for the traditionalists -- there's a lot of isos for the stars, there isn't much traditional point guard play, and many of the baskets come by brute force. The Heat are just a lot better at it.
Miami makes 51.1 percent of its 2-point shots (second-best in the NBA) and 38.8 percent of its 3s (fourth). The 'Bockers, on the other hand, are 18th in 2s and 24th from downtown.
Four players --
Carmelo Anthony, Stoudemire, Shumpert and Douglas -- have taken nearly two-thirds of the Knicks' shots. They're shooting 39.4 percent, 42.6 percent, 36.6 percent and 32.8 percent, respectively. The lack of a great distributor isn't helpful, but I'm not sure it's the primary issue. We've seen plenty of good offenses before that had low assist rates -- this year's Thunder, for instance, assist on barely half their baskets. Moreover, the Knicks' assist rate isn't even particularly low. In fact, it's barely different than the team's mark last season, with
Raymond Felton and
Chauncey Billups splitting the year at point guard.
All of this has important implications because of the impending return of
Baron Davis, who has been hailed in some quarters as an impending savior. On the one hand, Davis's passing is going to help; my work on assist quality indicates his dimes are some of the most valuable in basketball.
On the other hand, he's joining a team whose primary problem seems to be an inability to shoot straight. And in that context, his career percentages of 45.7 percent on 2s and 32.1 percent on 3s don't figure to raise the water level any (his 2-point mark is actually below that of his team, and his 3