Why isn't Julius Randle a top-10 sophomore?
Chad Ford: Last week we tackled our top 10 sophomores and -- controversially, if you believe our Twitter followers -- left Lakers forward Julius Randle out of our top 10.
Randle was the No. 7 pick in the draft in 2014 and was regarded as a top-two or top-three pick before his freshman season at Kentucky. At least one draft expert even said he'd take Randle No. 1 over Andrew Wiggins.
Randle is off to a solid start on his first real season (he had a season-ending injury on opening night of his rookie campaign), averaging 11 points per game and 9.5 rebounds for the Lakers. But he's shooting only 41 percent from the field and has played questionable defense all season -- leading head coach Byron Scott to sit him often in favor of rookie Larry Nance Jr.
Scott and Randle have sparred in the media in recent days, and Scott said Randle needs to grow up. Randle says he feels as if he's being singled out on a team that has been filled with poor performers.
So, Kevin, why did you leave him out of your top 10?
Kevin Pelton: Because I remembered Jusuf Nurkic qualified for the list despite not playing all season. Randle was originally in my 10th spot, so he wasn't far off.
I've been pleasantly surprised by his rebounding. He's pulling down 29.5 percent of all available defensive rebounds, putting him in the league's top 10. Perhaps more important, the Lakers have been much better on the glass with Randle on the court, suggesting he's not just stealing rebounds from his teammates. Add in Randle's ability to initiate the fast break after grabbing a rebound and that's useful.
Randle's issues have actually been more on the offensive end. He's shooting only 41.3 percent on 2-point attempts and his shot chart shows his problems, from both close range and further out. Randle is barely making half of his attempts within three feet (51.2 percent), struggling to score over length. Per NBAminer.com, the 35 times he has had his shot blocked put him in the league's top 20 in that undesirable category.
And outside 10 feet, Randle has shot 23.1 percent (21-91), according to Basketball Reference.
Chad, is there hope for him to become an efficient scorer?
Will Randle improve his weaknesses?
Ford: So, in short, you're a Laker hater.
I too had Randle just outside my top 10. He was the next guy in. But I don't think that will pacify Lakers fans. They want a superstar to build around and Randle shows enough flashes as a rebounder and ball handler in the open court to give them hope. I think that the long-term hope is Randle will start hitting jump shots. In high school, scouts thought of him as a very advanced offensive player with the ability to stretch the floor and put it on the deck.
Kentucky primarily used Randle in the low post, but his lack of elite size and explosiveness meant he struggled to finish. Shot blockers loved him in college.
So I think the hope has been that Randle would thrive in the NBA, given the predilection for 4s who can space the floor. But as you've pointed out, not only is he continuing to struggle at the rim, he's also missing almost 80 percent of his shots from beyond 10 feet.
Randle is going to have to improve at least one of those numbers to be an effective player in the NBA. Given his size limitations, I don't think it will be him scoring at the rim.
But I'm also concerned about him on the defensive end. Other than rebounding, I don't see much effort. I'm sure you remember wringing your hands a bit during the draft over Randle's painfully low steal rate. Do you see him ever turning into potentially an elite defender?
Pelton: Elite? I'd settle for average, but there is reason to expect that as a possibility.
Believe it or not, Randle is actually coming up with steals at an above-average rate for a power forward. And while he rarely blocks shots, opponents have shot a below-average 50 percent against Randle inside five feet, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) still rates him as a below-average defender because the Lakers are allowing 4.3 more points per 100 possessions with Randle on the court, but he's close enough to potentially get to average with experience.
We heard a few comps for Randle during the draft process, most notably Zach Randolph. Having seen him in the NBA for a couple of months now, who does Randle remind you of, Chad?
Does Randle compare to star players?
Ford: Before the draft, Randolph and to a lesser extent Paul Millsap were the comps. I'm not confident he can hit either of those ceilings, which leads me to guys like Tristan Thompson (the rebounding!), J.J. Hickson and possibly Jared Sullinger.
I'm sure you've spit out some more accurate ones.
Pelton: You hit on several of the names my SCHOENE projection system has as comparisons for Randle. Sullinger and Thompson are both in the top 10 and Hickson and Randolph in the top 20.
SCHOENE's best comp is Drew Gooden, which I think makes a lot of sense in terms of lottery pedigree, rebounding prowess and relatively low-percentage shooting. Besides the pre-draft comps, there are a lot of long careers in that group but very few All-Star appearances.
Unless Randle can dramatically improve his shooting and finishing, stardom doesn't seem to be in the cards for him. There's nothing wrong with that -- none of the players drafted after Randle are surefire stars -- but it does dampen the enthusiasm about the Lakers' young core to some extent.
Speaking of which, despite the second-best scoring average among sophomores, Lakers second-round pick Jordan Clarkson didn't make our top 10s either. What do you see in his future?
Ford: Clarkson was right behind Randle just outside my top 10. Ideally he's a rotation player who gives your team a scoring punch coming off the bench. That's valuable -- especially because he can play both the one and the two.
But his stellar rookie year might have moved him from underrated to overrated. I see him as a Rodney Stuckey or maybe a Jerryd Bayless type of player down the road.
To me this whole exercise means that, right now, D'Angelo Russell is their only true building block for the future -- unless, that is, Nance has you excited, Kevin. Russell has bounced back from a rough start to really begin to produce.
What do you think of the rest of the Lakers' young talent?
Pelton: I just assumed before the exercise that Clarkson would rank in the top 10 because of how effective he was as a rookie, but when I looked closely at the numbers, I wasn't impressed. Clarkson has never rated well by RPM, and his box-score stats have taken a turn for the worse this season, which is problematic for a 23-year-old player.
While there's certainly still room for Clarkson to develop at that age, when we talk about potential, remember that we're comparing him to what another second-year player like Marcus Smart will become with two more seasons of experience.
I thought taking Nance in the first round was a stretch, and I'm not sure he has done anything to change that opinion. He has provided energy and high-percentage finishing but has been ineffective on the defensive glass and is rarely creating his own shot. I see Nance having an extended career, but primarily as a reserve.
So I think Russell is the only Lakers youngster with a good shot at becoming an above-average starter. That's what makes it so important for them to retain their pick and find another young star in this year's draft.