Super Bowl dreaming: 10 reasons the Raiders will win it all next year
By Vic Tafur 12 hours ago
The Super Bowl is now only three days away, and while for some bizarre reason the majority of the people in the country are betting on the Eagles, there is a sense of pending gloom hanging over the heads of Raider Nation.
The dark clouds are thick because Raiders fans know that Tom Brady and the Patriots are going to win their sixth Super Bowl trophy.
It’s a run that started at the expense of the Raiders, thanks to the ridiculous Tuck Rule on that snowy day in January 2002.
So, Raiders fans, enjoy the Super Bowl commercials and dream of next season. And dream big.
The Raiders were the most-heavily bet team before last season, with the odds of them winning Super Bowl 52 dropping from 20-1 to 6-1. We all know how that turned out (Las Vegas just put up another hotel with that money), but it just sets everyone up to buy low now. The Raiders are 30-1 to win the Super Bowl in 2019.
Here are 10 reasons the Raiders can win the Super Bowl next year.
- It’s wide open. The Jaguars are one third-and-18 stop from being in the Super Bowl instead of the Patriots. The Jaguars! Their quarterback, Blake Bortles, was finally better this season but still not good. Plus, the Eagles made it to the Super Bowl without Carson Wentz, mainly because the teams in the NFC don’t play well on the road.
- The Chiefs traded Alex Smith. He owned the Raiders (8-2 the last five years). He even married one of their cheerleaders. (This one gets erased if Kirk Cousins, who Smith is replacing in Washington, lands with the Broncos. Denver has two great receivers who everyone has forgotten about the last two seasons, and its defense is still formidable.)
- The Chucky effect. Jon Gruden brings intensity and fun — his interaction with players has made for a lot of entertaining videos on the internet — but more importantly, a control of the offense that the Raiders were lacking last season. Rookie offensive coordinator Todd Downing struggled last season, and things got worse when Jack Del Rio tried to help. Del Rio likes to think of himself as an all-around coach, but his forte is defense — even if the Raiders didn’t improve on that side of the ball in his three years.
- The Derek Carr project. The Raiders gave Gruden $100 million to come back, sell some tickets here and in Las Vegas and fix Carr. Then they hired former coordinator Greg Olson as offensive coordinator to help, since he knows Carr well from being here for his rookie season. If that wasn’t enough, they then threw a pretty good chunk of money at Brian Callahan, son of Bill, to be the quarterbacks coach after he was well regarded for his work with the Lions. This after they weren’t even sure if they were going to hire a quarterbacks coach. Carr will have a coach in his ear every waking minute of the day. He is already thrilled about the plans to use more no-huddle.
- The team chemistry will be a lot better. Both players, coaches and players with coaches. In his conversation with The Athletic 10 days ago, Carr alluded to problems that nobody will know about because nobody on the Raiders will talk about them. He wouldn’t elaborate, but it’s pretty clear what he was talking about. There were not only leadership issues, which we’ve written about, but when the team was shocked and routed in Washington in Week 3, the coaches and players didn’t know how to respond. Some players thought it was a fluke, some coaches panicked and the Raiders never really found their identity again.
- Reggie McKenzie is due for a good draft. Picking ninth or 10th (depending on the coin toss) is a blessing, since Reggie tends to roll the dice or shred up injury histories when he picks later in the first round. Two impact players the first two rounds, especially at receiver or in the front seven defensively, will go a long way.
- Khalil Mack is the best defensive player in the NFL.
- Paul Guenther is a very respected defensive coordinator. He brings pressure on the quarterback without blitzing. He has quite a chess piece in Mack, a great pass rusher who might be better against the run, and likes veteran linebacker NaVorro Bowman and second-year cornerback Gareon Conley. Bruce Irvin had eight sacks last season and should also be back.
- The Amari Cooper clean slate. Throw out last season, except for that Chiefs game where he ran wild and caught everything. Gruden worked well with Tim Brown and Jerry Rice the first time Gruden wore silver and black, and has to be giddy about working with such a great route runner and hard worker. Olson may need smelling salts after the first practice, given what he had to work with here four years ago. They will use Cooper more in the slot.
- Money is no object. People say that’s because owner Mark Davis has Vegas bank accounts now, but since this is a dream, we’re going to say that Davis is really doing all he can to make good on his pledge to win a Super Bowl for Oakland before the Raiders skip town in two years.
Raiders Film Room: How they can address linebacker, edge rusher and right tackle this offseason
By Ted Nguyen 8 hours ago
In my last article, I wrote about the Raiders' three biggest pressing needs: cornerback, defensive tackle and wide receiver. There aren't any possible answers on the roster to fill those three positions.
In this article, we'll look at three less pressing needs. These are positions in which they have players on the roster that can potentially develop into average to better-than-average starters or have bounce-back seasons.
General manager Reggie McKenzie can't be too comfortable with the current depth chart at these positions, but with some good coaching, the Raiders can potentially be better at those spots. Not every position has to be stacked for a team to win. Still, the Raiders should look to add a possible starter or good role player to these position groups.
Linebacker
Current Starters: Corey James, Marquel Lee, Nicolas Morrow
Depth: Brady Sheldon
There seems to be interest in bringing back NaVorro Bowman. He played well last year and his leadership would be a welcome presence in Paul Guenther's defense. If he does return, the Raiders aren't as bad at linebacker as people think. James looked like he was ready to have a breakout year before being slowed by injuries and eventually shut down for the year.
Lee had some issues in coverage but started to play well before getting hurt and later replaced by Bowman. With a season under his belt, Lee could make some major strides next year.
Morrow was a converted safety and played well in coverage for most of the year but started playing very well against the run towards the end of the year. He'll at least be a solid role player in passing situations and provide some depth.
FA Target: Nigel Bradham
Bradham (Eagles) is an excellent fit for Guenther's 4-3 scheme. He is coming off a down year and didn't play as well against the run, which could lower his asking price, but he's only 28 and is excellent in coverage. Adding Bradham would make a lot of sense for the Raiders especially if Bowman decides to leave.
Draft Prospect: Roquan Smith
Smith (Georgia) is one of the top prospects in the draft. Reuben Foster was one of the highest inside linebacker prospects I graded last season. Smith isn't too far behind and he doesn't have any known behavior or medical issues. The Raiders are in a good spot with the ninth or 10th pick. It seems as if at least three quarterbacks will be picked in front of them, which means at least one elite non-quarterback prospect will fall to them. Linebacker prospects are similar to running back prospects — teams don't typically draft them high unless they are truly elite. Smith might be one of those rare exceptions.
Edge Rusher
Current Starters: Bruce Irvin, Khalil Mack
Depth: James Cowser, Shilique Calhoun
There's a chance that Irvin could end up being a cap casualty, but his strong finish to the end of 2017 season could be enough to convince Gruden to keep him around. It's not easy to find a player as talented and versatile as Irvin. In the final six games in which John Pagano took over as defensive play caller, Irvin had 5.5 sacks. Needless to say, if he can keep that pace up for the entire season, the Raiders would have one of the best pass rushes in the league with Mack on the other side.
However, you can never have enough rushers. Even if Irvin comes back, the Raiders should look to add another pass rusher. McKenzie should look to add an interior rusher early in the draft but add a situational edge rusher in free agency or in the mid-rounds of the draft. If Irvin doesn't come back, McKenzie could either break the bank for a free agent rusher or look to draft one in the first two rounds.
FA Target: Ezekiel Ansah
Ansah (Lions) should be the Raiders' top target if they part ways with Irvin. It doesn't seem likely that the Cowboys are going to let DeMarcus Lawrence go, but Ansah could be ready to test the market. Despite playing through multiple injuries the last few years, Ansah has been very productive, racking up 26 sacks in the last three years, including 11 last year. His injury history could drive his price down. When he's healthy, Ansah is one of the league's top edge rushers.
Draft Prospects: Bradley Chubb, Jeff Holland
Chubb (North Carolina State) is the top edge rusher on most draft boards right now. He is a refined pass rusher with a full arsenal of moves. If he somehow falls to the Raiders, he'd be very hard to pass up.
Holland (Auburn) doesn't have ideal height for an edge defender at 6-foot-2 but length is one of the most overrated traits for a pass rusher. It doesn't matter how long your arms are if you don't have proper technique. Holland uses the long arm technique that Mack uses. He has exceptional burst and uses hand fighting techniques. He could be a mid-round target if he doesn't start shooting up draft boards.
Right Tackle
Current Starter: Marshall Newhouse
Depth: Vadal Alexander, David Sharpe, Denver Kirkland, Jylan Ware
The right tackle for the Raiders will be a tough position to fill. The Raiders already have a lot of money spent on the other four offensive line positions (they had the second-highest paid line in the league last year) and can't break the bank at right tackle. They turned to the veteran Newhouse last year but he was wildly inconsistent. He had some great games where he would allow one to two pressures and terrible games when pass rushers blew by him.
His play dropped off so much towards the end of the season that coaches were hesitant to put in longer developing plays in the game plan because they were concerned about the right edge. McKenzie should be looking for a more reliable replacement.
Sharpe was drafted last year in the fourth round. The previous regime thought that he had all the tools to be a very good player with some technical development. He flashed some of his ability when he manhandled some of the Eagles' very talented defensive line in Week 16 but also had some reps where he didn't belong in the final game against the Chargers. He played left tackle but has the ability to move to right tackle. Sharpe is still very raw but is an interesting player and should get a shot at battling Newhouse.
Though Sharpe has flashed, he still has a lot to prove. McKenzie has to add another tackle to the mix that can compete and provide insurance in case Sharpe doesn't pan out.
FA Target: Chris Hubbard
Hubbard (Steelers) has been a backup for one of the best right tackles in the NFL: Marcus Gilbert. He filled in admirably this season when Gilbert was suspended and the Steelers didn't miss a beat with Gilbert out. Hubbard is undersized but he is highly technical and has experience blocking in a gap-scheme run game that Gruden is likely to bring back to Oakland. He's only 26 years old and shouldn't be too expensive.
Draft Prospect: Alex Cappa
Cappa (Humboldt State) is one of the draft's most intriguing prospects. Raiders fans are probably tired of developmental players but the reality is that tackles that have plus traits and are technically refined are getting snatched up early. Again, the Raiders will likely have to spend their early picks on defense.
Cappa is from a small school, but he did what he was supposed to do — and then some — which is to not only dominate but annihilate the competition. His highlight tape is almost comical. He proved that he could play with the big school guys and brought the same level of savagery to the Senior Bowl. However, he wasn't perfect; he did get beat on some occasions because his game needs refinement, but Cappa is certainly catching the NFL's eye with his immense physical ability.
In conclusion, not every free agent signing the Raiders make has to be a superstar. There are some very good players that don't have big names, like Hubbard, that could help out the Raiders immensely. Fans may not like to hear this but there are times when you have to trust former draft picks to develop because spending big in free agency isn't the formula for sustained success. The Raiders have holes but filling them prudently with smart signings and draft picks will be the key to success.
Raiders Film Room: Searching free agency and the draft to solve their three biggest needs
By Ted Nguyen Feb 6, 2018
Despite last year's disappointing season, the Raiders roster is not far from being a playoff team. There are some blue-chip players in important positions and the Raiders will likely get their first two 2017 draft picks back from injury; Gareon Conley and Obi Melifonwu should help improve the secondary, but the Raiders still have several pressing needs they have to fill through the draft or free agency.
We saw the difference a new coaching staff can make on an existing roster that included players that people were ready to give up on with the Los Angeles Rams last season. Not that we should expect Jon Gruden to have the same impact with the Raiders in 2018 as Coach of the Year Sean McVay had on the Rams in 2017, but it's fair to believe that Gruden should be a significant upgrade over Jack Del Rio.
With that said, general manager Reggie McKenzie has his most important offseason ahead of him. There is tremendous pressure to make the correct choices — deciding which players should stay with the team, which to pursue in free agency, and landing an instant impact player or two in the draft. The Raiders have an opportunity to set themselves up for a nice run, but they will have to address a few glaring holes either through the draft or free agency.
Cornerback
Yes, you have to pressure the quarterback, but you also have to cover long enough for the rush to hit home. It's a balance, but John Pagano's brief tenure as the defensive play caller proved that the Raiders have enough talent on their front to manufacture a decent rush. The secondary played better because of the improved rush, but it simply masked the Raiders' serious lack of talent on the back end.
Al Davis would tell John Madden that you have to start building your team with cornerbacks. In 2018, the Raiders need to start their rebuild with the corner position in mind. The team just cut David Amerson, Sean Smith could be next, and T.J. Carrie could leave in free agency. The team is very high on Conley, but even if he is everything they believe he can be, they still need another starting cornerback and they need depth.
Also, new defensive coordinator Paul Guenther's system requires corners to play a lot of bump and run and in some situations do it without safety help. McKenzie will have to add to the position with a high draft pick and free agency.
— Free-agent targets:
Trumaine Johnson, LA Rams: He'll be the top cornerback on the market and he won't be cheap. However, he is a big corner (6-foot-2) who specializes in press coverage and he just turned 28. Sound familiar? Johnson's situation is very similar to Sean Smith's when Smith hit free agency in 2016. I'd be wary if I were McKenzie.
That doesn't mean I'd take him off my radar, but McKenzie will have to do his homework and make sure that Johnson is a high-character player. The concern with bigger corners is that they have to continually work hard to keep their weight down or else their straight-line speed can become a concern, which has been a problem with Smith.
Kyle Fuller, Chicago: Fuller made some huge strides and finally played to his potential in 2017. He's very young (25), has room to improve, and could play inside or outside. However, McKenzie will have to decide whether he's actually trending up or last year was more of an aberration.
— Draft prospects:
Minkah Fitzpatrick, Alabama: He's a top-10 overall prospect, but there's a good chance he'll be available for the Raiders when they pick (ninth or 10th pending a coin flip with the 49ers) because several of the teams that pick ahead of the Raiders could go with quarterbacks. However, Fitzpatrick played mostly slot corner and the Raiders have a huge need on the outside. He has the potential to play outside but is unproven in that area. However, he might be too good to pass up if he falls.
Denzel Ward, Ohio State: He's undersized for today's NFL at 5-10, but he plays much bigger than his height. He is an extremely fluid athlete. He's physical and does a good job of going up for the ball. He's very good in press coverage and would be a great fit in Guenther's system. Reuniting Ward with Conley, his former Buckeye teammate, could give the Raiders a very talented pair of outside corners for a long time.
Defensive tackle
When he was running the Cincinnati defense, Guenther had the luxury of one of the most disruptive players in the league in defensive tackle Geno Atkins. The Raiders have some decent players on the interior and they played better after Pagano took over — but there isn't a true star at the position on the team.
Mario Edwards Jr. started the season very strong but faded away before he was injured once again. Though he once again flashed his high ceiling, Edwards is an unknown commodity who shouldn't be relied on. Pencil him as a rotational player, and if he is able to maintain a high-level of play for 16 games, then it's a bonus.
The Raiders' best interior lineman last year was Denico Autry. However, he's set to be a free agent and some team is likely going to give him an inflated contract. If he leaves, it'd be a loss for the Raiders — he could be a really good as a single-gap player in Guenther's defense.
Even if Autry does come back, the Raiders could really use a star in the middle of the defense to help Khalil Mack with some interior pressure. Luckily for the Raiders, there are some really intriguing draft prospects potentially available at the end of the top 10.
— Draft prospects:
Vita Vea, Washington: Vea will be one of the draft's fast risers. He has unreal strength and just toys with college offensive linemen. He is an absolute monster against the run, but when you pick a defensive tackle in the top 10, you want a pass rusher. Vea has shown potential as a pass rusher but mostly relies on brute strength rather than quickness. McKenzie will have to decide if Vea's pass-rushing skills can be refined and translate to the NFL.
Mo Hurst, Michigan: He's undersized at 269 pounds, but his game closely resembles Atkins'. He has elite quick-twitch and athleticism, and a motor that doesn't stop, yet he still had the strength to play nose tackle for Michigan. If scouts believe that he has the ability to add some weight to his frame, he could be a big-time disruptor in the middle.
Wide receiver
In the last few years, the Raiders' offensive identity was built on having two star receivers. Amari Cooper would draw the double-teams, while Michael Crabtree would feast on one-on-one opportunities. However, Crabtree's well-documented fallout with the previous coaching staff could be the cause of his departure.
If Crabtree is cut, Derek Carr needs another target. He doesn't necessarily have to be a superstar, but adding a receiver with a big body who can win jump ball situations would be key. Crabtree made several game-winning catches on fades throughout his career in Oakland, and McKenzie would have to replace that. Finding a veteran free agent with some experience in the league might be ideal in this situation.
— Free-agent targets:
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville: He'll be at the top of the market even though he is coming off a knee injury, which could drop his price a little. Robinson had by far his best year as a pro when Greg Olson, now the Raiders' offensive coordinator, was the Jaguars' offensive coordinator, so that could be a draw to come to Oakland.
Terrelle Pryor, Washington: He took a bet on himself last year by signing a one year contract with Washington but wasn't productive before suffering a season-ending injury playing for Jay Gruden. Pryor's stock has taken a big hit, but that could make him a bargain to return to the Raiders, where he started his career as a quarterback. There is no doubt he would be a boom-or-bust prospect, but he's still only 28 and could be worth a gamble.
These are three positions that the Raiders absolutely do not have on their current roster, especially if Crabtree is cut.
Some fans will point to linebacker as a pressing need, but there seems to be mutual interest in NaVorro Bowman coming back and there is enough young talent at that position to get by. I'll talk about the Raiders' three less-pressing needs in my next article later this week. I'll also being doing in-depth scouting reports on potential Raiders draft picks in the coming weeks.
Is his contract up or nah?
