***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

[scuse7]

Originally Posted by jordanfreek45

Fellas what's your take on the Pitt @ RU game this Saturday afternoon?

I was at the Pitt, USF game, and Pitt looked dominant. It seems like Tino Sunseri is getting a lot better, which is the only way this offense works. Pitt dominated a athletic usf team.
Rutgers, looked like %%%+ and only won that game because syracuse sucks. The line keeps dropping, started at -9, now at 7. Any lower and I will take Pitt probably.

 

[scuse7]

Originally Posted by jordanfreek45

Fellas what's your take on the Pitt @ RU game this Saturday afternoon?

I was at the Pitt, USF game, and Pitt looked dominant. It seems like Tino Sunseri is getting a lot better, which is the only way this offense works. Pitt dominated a athletic usf team.
Rutgers, looked like %%%+ and only won that game because syracuse sucks. The line keeps dropping, started at -9, now at 7. Any lower and I will take Pitt probably.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Really liking a lot of the games I've peeked at on Saturday. I have a feeling I'm going to be paid out quite nice the rest of the college season.

Let it ride man.  Last year by week 5 I had lost my limit.

I'm up so far this year with a pretty small initial investment so I cant complain... Hopefully keep it going this week.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Really liking a lot of the games I've peeked at on Saturday. I have a feeling I'm going to be paid out quite nice the rest of the college season.

Let it ride man.  Last year by week 5 I had lost my limit.

I'm up so far this year with a pretty small initial investment so I cant complain... Hopefully keep it going this week.

 

[scuse7]

Yeah, I started with 80 bucks...trying to get to 500. Aiming high

But yeah, I like a Eagles -1 and Pittsburgh -3 a lot. Probably will lay heavy on both of those.

 

[scuse7]

Yeah, I started with 80 bucks...trying to get to 500. Aiming high

But yeah, I like a Eagles -1 and Pittsburgh -3 a lot. Probably will lay heavy on both of those.

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

Boise -20

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

Boise -20

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

 

[fraij da 5 11]

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

 

[pauliepeppas]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

same, finally learned to stop betting all my winnings bc i think im invincible 

 

[pauliepeppas]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

same, finally learned to stop betting all my winnings bc i think im invincible 

 

[Bert.]

down to $15 on my bodog

 

[Bert.]

down to $15 on my bodog

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

Originally Posted by PauliePeppas

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

same, finally learned to stop betting all my winnings bc i think im invincible 

im tryna learn this way of thinking....
gonna b hard, i use to bet anywhere from 100-1000$ on games, just don't got it like that no more tho...

so im try going smaller...

 

[fr3sh like ughh]

Originally Posted by PauliePeppas

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

Varies for me... $25 would be a "unit" for me... I've been putting 50-70 on a lot of games recently though... I've liked them all a lot though.

same, finally learned to stop betting all my winnings bc i think im invincible 

im tryna learn this way of thinking....
gonna b hard, i use to bet anywhere from 100-1000$ on games, just don't got it like that no more tho...

so im try going smaller...

 

[mojodmonky1]

I'm also a $25/unit player here. Small time.

Fresh it really depends on what your bankroll is and your tolerance for risk. Typically, most people consider a unit of play to equal 1% of their entire bankroll. So for me, if I ever go down $2,500 I am busto and calling it a year.

I am a hobby player and a fairly risk averse player myself, so I try to limit my unit play per game. Of course I want to make money, but the entertainment factor is the #1 reason why I bet. I will usually go 1u or 1.25u on games that I like, and up to 3u on games that I REALLY like. Other people have different systems and will go 1-5u plays (obviously based on how much they like that particular bet) but will go 6-10u plays on their "lock" type of plays.

My only exception to my rule (and it is a big exception) is on MMA betting because I often bet big favorites. In these situations I find myself risking upwards of 4-6 units to win 1-2 units. With MMA bets I work with a partner and we try to breakdown and assess future probabilities on outcome.

quick example:

Lets take this weekends Maynard v. Edgar UFC title fight.

I will try to breakdown each fighters different paths to victory and then break down the probability of each of those paths chance of occuring. We then compare our assessed probability against the current betting lines to see if there is any +EV on either side. Obviously this is an imperfect science (since the key data "probability of certain outcomes" is somewhat arbitrarily decided by me), but it helps give both me and my partner some pseudo-science based reasoning behind our picks.

So say after doing all our analysis we think that its gonna be real tight and Maynard has a 48% chance of victory and his current betting odds are at +125. +125 implies that Maynard has a 44.45% chance of victory (100/225). Therefore if we truly believe our analysis and probability is correct at 48% chance of victory, there would be slight value at that price.

Obviously the more perceived value, the bigger the unit bet size.

This past weekends card had a fight that my boy and I thought was a huge value play. Anthony Rumble Johnson opened at -185 against Charlie Brennamen. We believed that Rumble legitimately had a 80% chance or better to win that fight whereas -185 would put it closer to 65%. We bet big units on that fight, and thankfully we were correct with our assessment (we got crushed on another fight, but that is not relevant to this discussion

)

 

[mojodmonky1]

I'm also a $25/unit player here. Small time.

Fresh it really depends on what your bankroll is and your tolerance for risk. Typically, most people consider a unit of play to equal 1% of their entire bankroll. So for me, if I ever go down $2,500 I am busto and calling it a year.

I am a hobby player and a fairly risk averse player myself, so I try to limit my unit play per game. Of course I want to make money, but the entertainment factor is the #1 reason why I bet. I will usually go 1u or 1.25u on games that I like, and up to 3u on games that I REALLY like. Other people have different systems and will go 1-5u plays (obviously based on how much they like that particular bet) but will go 6-10u plays on their "lock" type of plays.

My only exception to my rule (and it is a big exception) is on MMA betting because I often bet big favorites. In these situations I find myself risking upwards of 4-6 units to win 1-2 units. With MMA bets I work with a partner and we try to breakdown and assess future probabilities on outcome.

quick example:

Lets take this weekends Maynard v. Edgar UFC title fight.

I will try to breakdown each fighters different paths to victory and then break down the probability of each of those paths chance of occuring. We then compare our assessed probability against the current betting lines to see if there is any +EV on either side. Obviously this is an imperfect science (since the key data "probability of certain outcomes" is somewhat arbitrarily decided by me), but it helps give both me and my partner some pseudo-science based reasoning behind our picks.

So say after doing all our analysis we think that its gonna be real tight and Maynard has a 48% chance of victory and his current betting odds are at +125. +125 implies that Maynard has a 44.45% chance of victory (100/225). Therefore if we truly believe our analysis and probability is correct at 48% chance of victory, there would be slight value at that price.

Obviously the more perceived value, the bigger the unit bet size.

This past weekends card had a fight that my boy and I thought was a huge value play. Anthony Rumble Johnson opened at -185 against Charlie Brennamen. We believed that Rumble legitimately had a 80% chance or better to win that fight whereas -185 would put it closer to 65%. We bet big units on that fight, and thankfully we were correct with our assessment (we got crushed on another fight, but that is not relevant to this discussion

)

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Really liking a lot of the games I've peeked at on Saturday. I have a feeling I'm going to be paid out quite nice the rest of the college season.

Let it ride man.  Last year by week 5 I had lost my limit.

I'm up so far this year with a pretty small initial investment so I cant complain... Hopefully keep it going this week.

Let it ride it is and it plays into the question of the amount of my unit.

I started the season at $50/unit, but now that we're in the full swing of the season and I've developed a bankroll and a great grasp of a majority of the teams, I'm going $100/unit.  My play on Wisconsin last week was well over a few units, which netted me some good cash and allows me to roll $100/game for the rest of the year.

  

 

[651akathepaul]

Originally Posted by fraij da 5 11

Originally Posted by 651akathePaul

Really liking a lot of the games I've peeked at on Saturday. I have a feeling I'm going to be paid out quite nice the rest of the college season.

Let it ride man.  Last year by week 5 I had lost my limit.

I'm up so far this year with a pretty small initial investment so I cant complain... Hopefully keep it going this week.

Let it ride it is and it plays into the question of the amount of my unit.

I started the season at $50/unit, but now that we're in the full swing of the season and I've developed a bankroll and a great grasp of a majority of the teams, I'm going $100/unit.  My play on Wisconsin last week was well over a few units, which netted me some good cash and allows me to roll $100/game for the rest of the year.

  

 

[mr marcus]

Originally Posted by FR3SH like UgHH

just a question

how much do u guys usually bet a game?

$100/unit 

 

[scuse7]

20= 1 unit

 

[venom lyrix]

Put a chalk parlay together for Baseball tomorrow.

Brewers, Phillies, Yankees.