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MMA Betting Analysis for the weekend.
For the first time since probably.... 2008? I am virtually sitting out the entire event (I had a cheapie freeplay on my 5dimes account that I put on a BS parlay for the entire card but that doesnt count).
My decision to sit on the sidelines has as much to do with a lack of perceived value as it does with my current financial situation (anyone on NT an electrician? My electrician is charging me $700 to install a couple of light fixtures and some recessed lighting... damn... i need a hookup). That being said, there are still a couple of somewhat decent plays to be had here.
Main Event:
Bisping (approx -200) v. Sexyama (approx +170)
This one is a tough tough one to call. My heart will be rooting for Akiyama, but my head says that Bisping should take this via 3 rd decision. Although Aki has recently moved to Greg Jackson's camp, I don't know if he will be able to get his cardio level up in such a short period of time. Bisping on the other hand is the friggin energizer bunny and cardio never seems to be the issue. While Aki does have good power in his hands, I think Bisping learned his lesson from the Hendo fight (dont circle into your opponents power hand you dummy). I dont see Bisping slugging it out with Aki here. Although Bisping lacks power (not to mention Aki has a tough tough chin) his technical striking and footwork should allow him to evade Aki's power punches while effectively counter punching on his own. UFC judging can be a little wonky and its hard to guess how the judges are going to score a fight on any particular night, but recent judging has shown that you CAN win a close decision even while backpeddling and counter punching the entire time (ex. Guillard > Stephens). Lets not forget that this fight is also in Bispings backyard and while I am not insinuating that the fix is in, I think they will give a close decision to the hometown boy more often than not. As long as Bisping can avoid getting into a slugfest or a clinch battle with Aki, I think he should be able to pull off a decision. If Aki can get his paws on the guy and use his judo to take this to the ground, things could look a bit more sketch for Bisping. Even though Bisping has exhibited solid ground defense (as well as takedown defense), idiot judges always tend to side with the guy in top position.
At -200 I dont see a ton of value but if you just want to wager something for fun, you might as well put it on Bisping. If your book has prop lines (5dimes does) I think the better value is taking the odds and betting on Bisping to win via decision. I believe 5d has this line around +135 which I feel is a much better line than -200 cause he is not going to KO Akiyama and I highly doubt he will sub him. Open invitation to any socal NTers. I will even go out on a limb and offer a free beer on my dime if Aki gets KO'd.
sorry fellas, I am running out of time so the rest of my analysis is gonna be a bit short.
Live Dogs:
I think there are definitely a couple live dogs for this event.
1. Curt Warburton - To be honest I dont know much about this kid. Never seen any of his fights. I only know what I've read about him on other sites. That being said, I have seen Spencer Fisher fight on many an occassion and I am not impressed with him at all. Warburton comes from a decent camp (Wolfslair) and is coming into the fight with no expectations. Hopefully this bum Fisher comes in out of shape and mentally unprepared. At +175 and rising, I think it might be worth a small play.
2. Mike Pyle - Almost +400 for a guy who has a real path to winning this fight? (via sub). Great price I think. This kid Hathaway is a legit rising prospect and has a solid win under his belt in his last fight against Diego. That being said, I dont know if his grappling has ever been tested by a high level jits guy. I mean... dont go betting your next mortgage payment on a 4:1 dog, but it might be worth a small play here as I think its going to be a lot closer than the odds indicate. If you want to play it safer, it might even be worth placing a hedge bet on Hathaway to win via decision.
If I was going to bet, the only bet I feel somewhat confident in is Cheick Kongo. I know... I know... hes a frog. he does that stupid zieg heil salute over and over. but Kongo is a legit HW. Maybe not championship level, but definitely a high gatekeeper at worst. While Kongo does not have devastating striking (atleast in my opinion), his technique and power seem legit. With Kongo you know what you are getting. Good kickboxing, good takedown defense, vicious GnP. To get -185 range on a tried and trued product like Kongo against an untested prospect like Browne is a solid play.
Good luck everyone
For the first time since probably.... 2008? I am virtually sitting out the entire event (I had a cheapie freeplay on my 5dimes account that I put on a BS parlay for the entire card but that doesnt count).
My decision to sit on the sidelines has as much to do with a lack of perceived value as it does with my current financial situation (anyone on NT an electrician? My electrician is charging me $700 to install a couple of light fixtures and some recessed lighting... damn... i need a hookup). That being said, there are still a couple of somewhat decent plays to be had here.
Main Event:
Bisping (approx -200) v. Sexyama (approx +170)
This one is a tough tough one to call. My heart will be rooting for Akiyama, but my head says that Bisping should take this via 3 rd decision. Although Aki has recently moved to Greg Jackson's camp, I don't know if he will be able to get his cardio level up in such a short period of time. Bisping on the other hand is the friggin energizer bunny and cardio never seems to be the issue. While Aki does have good power in his hands, I think Bisping learned his lesson from the Hendo fight (dont circle into your opponents power hand you dummy). I dont see Bisping slugging it out with Aki here. Although Bisping lacks power (not to mention Aki has a tough tough chin) his technical striking and footwork should allow him to evade Aki's power punches while effectively counter punching on his own. UFC judging can be a little wonky and its hard to guess how the judges are going to score a fight on any particular night, but recent judging has shown that you CAN win a close decision even while backpeddling and counter punching the entire time (ex. Guillard > Stephens). Lets not forget that this fight is also in Bispings backyard and while I am not insinuating that the fix is in, I think they will give a close decision to the hometown boy more often than not. As long as Bisping can avoid getting into a slugfest or a clinch battle with Aki, I think he should be able to pull off a decision. If Aki can get his paws on the guy and use his judo to take this to the ground, things could look a bit more sketch for Bisping. Even though Bisping has exhibited solid ground defense (as well as takedown defense), idiot judges always tend to side with the guy in top position.
At -200 I dont see a ton of value but if you just want to wager something for fun, you might as well put it on Bisping. If your book has prop lines (5dimes does) I think the better value is taking the odds and betting on Bisping to win via decision. I believe 5d has this line around +135 which I feel is a much better line than -200 cause he is not going to KO Akiyama and I highly doubt he will sub him. Open invitation to any socal NTers. I will even go out on a limb and offer a free beer on my dime if Aki gets KO'd.
sorry fellas, I am running out of time so the rest of my analysis is gonna be a bit short.
Live Dogs:
I think there are definitely a couple live dogs for this event.
1. Curt Warburton - To be honest I dont know much about this kid. Never seen any of his fights. I only know what I've read about him on other sites. That being said, I have seen Spencer Fisher fight on many an occassion and I am not impressed with him at all. Warburton comes from a decent camp (Wolfslair) and is coming into the fight with no expectations. Hopefully this bum Fisher comes in out of shape and mentally unprepared. At +175 and rising, I think it might be worth a small play.
2. Mike Pyle - Almost +400 for a guy who has a real path to winning this fight? (via sub). Great price I think. This kid Hathaway is a legit rising prospect and has a solid win under his belt in his last fight against Diego. That being said, I dont know if his grappling has ever been tested by a high level jits guy. I mean... dont go betting your next mortgage payment on a 4:1 dog, but it might be worth a small play here as I think its going to be a lot closer than the odds indicate. If you want to play it safer, it might even be worth placing a hedge bet on Hathaway to win via decision.
If I was going to bet, the only bet I feel somewhat confident in is Cheick Kongo. I know... I know... hes a frog. he does that stupid zieg heil salute over and over. but Kongo is a legit HW. Maybe not championship level, but definitely a high gatekeeper at worst. While Kongo does not have devastating striking (atleast in my opinion), his technique and power seem legit. With Kongo you know what you are getting. Good kickboxing, good takedown defense, vicious GnP. To get -185 range on a tried and trued product like Kongo against an untested prospect like Browne is a solid play.
Good luck everyone
