NBA teams are wrapping up workouts, with some of the top prospects going head to head early this week as they try to write their tickets to the draft.
Jonny Flynn is battling Brandon Jennings in Milwaukee.
Terrence Williams and Gerald Henderson are duking it out in Charlotte.
DeJuan Blair, James Johnson and B.J. Mullens are in callbacks in Chicago.
NBA teams are starting to firm up their draft boards. But, unlike in previous years, there is a lot of uncertainty at the top. Usually at this time of year,teams have narrowed it down to two or three guys. This year, most teams are still deciding between four or five guys.
And with teams in the top 16, like the Grizzlies, Wizards, Timberwolves, Knicks, Nets and Bulls, all talking trades, this whole thing could get out of whackpretty quickly.
So while we have a good feel for who is on the draft board of every team, who a team eventually will take is still up in the air.
Said one prominent NBA GM: "The only thing I can predict about this draft is that it will be one of the most unpredictable in draft history."
Here's our latest take, after talking to numerous NBA team sources, on how the draft might play out Thursday. Check out updated comments, too -- Idumped all my draft notes from the weekend here.
And for the first time this year, we have our second-round mock ready to roll.
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L.A. Clippers
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Blake Griffin
| Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 248 pounds
Age: 20
School: Oklahoma |
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Analysis: For the past several years, we've been blessed with at least a little suspense when it comes to who will be the No. 1 pick.Not this year. Griffin is going to be a Clipper. Sources around the league say trade talks with the Clippers are virtually nonexistent when it comes toGriffin. Instead, the Clippers are focusing on finding a new home for Chris Kaman or Zach Randolph.
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Memphis
|
Hasheem Thabeet
| Position: C
Height: 7-3
Weight: 267
Age: 22
School: Connecticut |
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Analysis: There is still a lot of talk about Memphis trading this pick. The Wolves, Wizards and Kings have all called. So have Boston andPortland. But if the Grizzlies don't trade it, whom will they take?
The consensus is that the Grizzlies will take Thabeet, who we've had here since our first mock draft. The Grizzlies need defense and shot blocking, andThabeet brings those skills.
However, the fact that Thabeet canceled his workout (shoulder injury) with Memphis on Sunday could be a big factor. Chris Wallace has already interviewedhim, but owner Michael Heisley hasn't. And the subtle message behind the cancellation can't be what the Grizzlies want to hear -- Thabeet doesn'twant to play in Memphis.
As for the rest of the Grizzlies' draft board? Notably absent is Ricky Rubio. Sources say he is off the board after refusing to visit.
So, does a desire to play in Memphis matter to Heisley?
If so, James Harden, Tyreke Evans and Jordan Hill might be more in the mix than we thought.
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Oklahoma City
|
Ricky Rubio
| Position: PG
Height: 6-4
Weight: 180
Age: 18
Country: Spain |
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Analysis: Thunder GM Sam Presti flew to L.A. on Saturday to talk to Rubio. He also got a chance to review Rubio's physical and contract-- two important pieces of the puzzle for whoever drafts him.
Then, on Sunday, he met with James Harden and Hasheem Thabeet in L.A. And just to make things even more confusing, we hear Presti is now hot for StephenCurry.
Whom will the Thunder draft? I think this one is going down to the wire. I know Presti is a fan of all four players -- Rubio and Thabeet have the upside,and Harden and Curry are the better fits. If Presti can get a couple of assets in return for the No. 3 pick, he won't be afraid to pull the trigger on atrade, either.
If the Thunder keep the pick, my brain says Harden is a perfect fit in Oklahoma City next to Russell Westbrook. The scuttle is that Curry is the hot name inthe Thunder's draft war room. And a few think Thabeet's size will win the day. But I have to believe that Rubio, whom we've had here since thenight of the lottery, will end up in OKC.
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Sacramento
|
Tyreke Evans
| Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 220
Age: 19
School: Memphis |
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Analysis: At this point, I think it's safe to say the Kings have narrowed it down to Flynn, Rubio and Evans.
Sources say the camp is pretty split among the three. Flynn brings vocal leadership, athleticism and an NBA-ready body to the mix. Rubio is physically lessready for the NBA, but he's a purer point guard who understands the game better than anyone in the draft. Evans isn't a true point, but the Kings lovehis strength, toughness and size -- especially after his second workout.
Evans was in Sacramento on Sunday and had his way with Flynn and Stephen Curry. He was relentless taking the ball to the basket. As one Kings scoutremarked, "It was a man beating up boys."
So, has Evans risen to the top of the Kings' list? Maybe.
Sources in Sacramento say the Kings have reservations about Rubio, and his rocky visit there last week didn't help the situation. They feel like Flynncould be a leader and the guy who could come in from day one and contribute, but they are worried about his size.
Evans has been described as sort of a compromise candidate. He gives the team size and some point-guard skills. As for Jrue Holiday? He was in the mix for awhile, but sources say he's fallen off the top three on their board.
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Washington
|
James Harden
| Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 222
Age: 19
School: Arizona State |
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Analysis: As we've been reporting since draft lottery night, the Wizards continue to shop this pick, and Washington sources saythey've had a number of interesting offers. The Wizards' goal is to get back a veteran who can play right now ... and to shed a few million dollars offtheir cap if possible.
A couple of NBA agents who have been talking to the Wizards say they believe it's highly likely the pick will get traded. But where? Every source has adifferent answer.
A number of teams -- including the Knicks, Rockets and Pacers -- are possibilities here. So are the Timberwolves, who have tried to pick up another lotterypick.
If the Wizards keep the pick, they'll have a tough choice among Harden, Curry and Hill. Hill's rebounding ability and motor are great, but adding adead-eye shooter in the backcourt like Curry or an all-around talent like Harden appears to be a bigger need.
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Analysis: The Wolves really need help at center and point guard. There aren't any centers worth taking at this spot, so they'vebeen looking hard at Curry, Tyreke Evans, DeMar DeRozan and Brandon Jennings here. If they move up, Ricky Rubio and Hasheem Thabeet move into the picture.
I think Curry can play both positions on the floor and, combined with Randy Foye, could give the Wolves a pretty formidable backcourt. Curry's maturity,dead-eye shooting and name recognition will make him a smart pick for the Wolves if he's still on the board. But if he's not, they will go with Evans.And if Evans is not there, DeRozan and Jennings will get looks.
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Analysis: The Warriors don't have a traditional point guard, and they'll have at least three to choosefrom here, including Jonny Flynn, Brandon Jennings and Jrue Holiday.
The problem for the Warriors is that they have a young player, Monta Ellis, who thinks he's a point guard and a coach, Don Nelson, who appears to becommitted to giving Ellis a shot at running the point.
That means that even though Flynn, Jennings and Holiday all are on the board here, the Warriors could pass on all three.
I think that puts Hill strongly in play here. He's a mobile big man, which Nellie likes, and he's got a great motor. It wouldn't shock me to seeGolden State move Brandan Wright this summer, and if it does, Hill fits right in.
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New York
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Brandon Jennings
| Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 165
Age: 19
Country: Italy |
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Analysis: The Knicks will be disappointed if Curry is off the board, but the truth is, they have needseverywhere.
With David Lee hitting restricted free agency this summer, Hill would be a perfect fit for New York at the 4. If he's there, I think he'll go aheadof any of the point guards not named Rubio or Curry.
If Hill is gone, as he is in this mock, they'll be drafting for a point guard. The Knicks likely would be deciding between two young, inexperiencedguards with terrific upside -- Jennings and Holiday.
Neither had a terrific season, but both have huge potential. Early on, Jennings was better than Holiday in the New York workouts -- Jennings held his own ina workout with Evans while Holiday got overshadowed a bit by Curry and
Gerald Henderson in his firstworkout.
The Knicks are bringing Holiday back on Monday. Holiday is all about substance, Jennings about flash. Holiday is low risk, Jennings is higher risk, buthigher reward. Right now, Jennings has a super slim lead, but that could change Monday.
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Analysis: The Raptors have some needs on the wing since Anthony Parker and Shawn Marion are hitting freeagency. DeRozan is one of the most gifted players in the draft, and his strong play at the end of the season combined with a confident performance at thecombine could push him even higher than No. 9. But if he's here, sources say the Raptors won't pass.
If DeRozan is gone, they'll decide between Duke's Henderson and Holiday, with Holiday in the lead. In fact, one source close to the Raptors insistedSunday that it was Holiday, not DeRozan, whom the Raptors would select in this scenario. We'll be watching that one closely.
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Analysis: The Bucks have a big workout Tuesday as they try to sort things out. Flynn,
Ty Lawson, Jennings and
Jeff Teague all will bethere.
But if the team has its way and Holiday is on the board, I think the Bucks will take him. If Holiday is off the board, this week's workout shoulddetermine the rest of their board. But going into the workout, it seems like it's Flynn, Teague, Jennings and Lawson in that order.
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Analysis: We've had
Tyler Hansbrough at this spot for the past few weeks, and he's still in consideration here. But if Flynn is on the board, Nets GM RodThorn won't hesitate to take him.
While Thorn has said he needs a moose up front, the Nets have needs in the backcourt, too. Devin Harris can play the 1 and the 2, and Vince Carter can playthe 2 and the 3, and without a significant backup point guard, Flynn seems like a terrific fit.
Flynn will have a shot at making his case Tuesday when he goes into a mega workout in New Jersey against his top competition at 11. Jennings, Henderson,
Terrence Williams,Hansbrough and
JeffPendergraph will join him in what could be the ultimate fight for the Nets' pick.
The Nets are high on all the players at 11 (with the exception of Pendergraph), and Tuesday's workout could go a long way in deciding whom they pick.That is, if they don't trade this pick to Chicago for No. 16 and No. 26.
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Charlotte
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Terrence Williams
| Position: SG
Height: 6-6
Weight: 213
Age: 21
School: Louisville |
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Analysis: Last week, I said I thought it was close to a sure thing that Henderson would be the pick here. What a difference a week makes.Williams went in and blew Larry Brown away. Now Williams and Henderson are going to square off in a second workout early this week. That workout will determinewho goes at No. 12, but sources are saying Williams has moved ahead for the time being.
Earl Clark and B.J.Mullens aren't out of the question here, either, nor is a Bobcats trade. Not only does Henderson not have this thing locked up, but I think he's inserious danger of slipping.
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Analysis: The Pacers have been on the hunt for a point guard and will snatch up either Holiday or Flynn if hefalls this far. If neither does, the Pacers will have a tough decision between going big or taking one of the point guards in the next tier.
If they go big, both Blair and Hansbrough are in the mix. The Pacers, like a lot of teams, have had concerns about Blair's knees, but Blair's circlehas been pretty proactive the past few days with an avalanche of documents, MRIs and medical opinions that all state Blair's knees should hold up fine.
If they go point guard, I think it will be a dog fight between Teague,
Eric Maynor, Lawson and Jennings.All four have been impressive at workouts for the Pacers. Maynor and Lawson are the most ready. Teague and Jennings have the upside.
For now, it appears Blair has moved back into the mix in Indiana. He fills a big need at the 4, and if he's going to be healthy, he deserves to go thishigh.
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Phoenix
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Gerald Henderson
| Position: SG
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age: 21
School: Duke |
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Analysis: The Suns could go in a lot of directions, depending on where GM Steve Kerr decides to take the team.
There's been a lot of talk about Earl Clark,
James Johnson and Mullens here.Clark and Johnson joined Jennings in a workout in Phoenix this weekend with word that Clark and Johnson were basically a tie.
But I think the Suns will have a hard time passing on Henderson if he's there. He's rated higher on their board than anyone else who'savailable. Henderson isn't a perfect fit, but he gives them some depth at the 2 and some insurance if they try to ship Jason Richardson this summer.
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Detroit
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Earl Clark
| Position: SF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 226
Age: 21
School: Louisville |
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Analysis: The Pistons will begin their summer makeover in the draft.
They'd love to add a dominant low-post scorer, but in lieu of that, they'll have to settle for choosing between two upside guys: Clark and
Austin Daye.
Clark could be the second coming of Lamar Odom if he's willing to put in the work. The versatile forward can play both the 3 and the 4 and is amazing intransition, an excellent rebounder and an emerging shooter. And he has the capability (albeit not always the inclination) to play great defense. But there area few questions about his background that might hurt him.
Daye is one of the most skilled players in the draft. He's like a 6-foot-11 version of Tayshaun Prince. He's super skinny, but he can really shootthe rock. He is also inconsistent but has major upside.
I think Clark gets the edge based on physicality and versatility. He's big enough to be a full-time 4 in the NBA, but it's a close call.
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Chicago
|
James Johnson
| Position: PF
Height: 6-8
Weight: 258
Age: 22
School: Wake Forest |
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Analysis: The Bulls have been working the phones this week trying to move up in the draft.
They've talked to the Nets, Bobcats and Pacers about swapping the 16th and 26th picks to move up a few spots.
Who are they after? I've heard everything from Johnson to Blair to Hansbrough to Williams to Mullens here. To be honest, I can't get a terrifichandle on which way they are leaning. In this scenario, Williams and Blair are gone, which leaves Johnson, Mullens and Hansbrough.
Hansbrough is the most NBA ready. Mullens has the most upside. Johnson is somewhere in between. I'm not sure exactly how Johnson fits in Chicago withLuol Deng on one side and Tyrus Thomas on the other, but there's no question about his upside.
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Philadelphia
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Ty Lawson
| Position: PG
Height: 6-1
Weight: 199
Age: 21
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: With Andre Miller hitting free agency this summer, look for the Sixers to address the point guardposition. Lou Williams is nice but not really a lead guard.
Maynor, Lawson and Teague all are in the mix here ... as are Williams, Henderson and
Sam Young.
Maynor would give Philly the total package as one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft. Lawson had the best season of any of the point guards and canreally play in an up-tempo style. Teague also will get a look here, but he's more of a combo guard, and the Sixers have that in Williams.
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Minnesota (from Miami)
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B.J. Mullens
| Position: C
Height: 7-1
Weight: 258
Age: 20
School: Ohio State |
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Analysis: I'm not sure whether the Wolves will keep this pick, and there are a number of teams that seem to be hot for Mullens thatwould be willing to trade for it. If the Wolves keep it, Mullens could fill a big hole in the paint in the long term.
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Atlanta
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Jeff Teague
| Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 175
Age: 20
School: Wake Forest |
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Analysis: The Hawks have blown it repeatedly when they've needed a point guard in the draft. They passedon Chris Paul to draft Marvin Williams and passed on Rajon Rondo to draft Shelden Williams.
Then, two years ago, when they finally got around to picking a point guard, they took Acie Law ahead of Rodney Stuckey.
The choice here likely will come down to Teague and Maynor. Maynor has the experience and leadership credentials, but Teague has the sizzle and upside.
Omri Casspi,Hansbrough and Sam Young also are in the mix here.
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Utah
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Tyler Hansbrough
| Position: PF
Height: 6-10
Weight: 234
Age: 23
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: The Jazz and Hansbrough seem like a match made in heaven. If Hansbrough falls this far (he'sgetting a look at 11, 13, 16 and 19), I don't see them passing on him. With Carlos Boozer heading out the door, they need more toughness in the paint. Butif he's off the board, they likely will be deciding among Austin Daye, Young and
Toney Douglas.
Young is the type of tough veteran the Jazz love. He is ready to step in and play right now, and would give them minutes at both the 2 and the 3.
Douglas is the type of combo guard the Jazz currently lack. He shoots, plays defense and could be a credible backup at both positions for Utah.
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New Orleans
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Sam Young
| Position: SF
Height: 6-7
Weight: 223
Age: 24
School: Pittsburgh |
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Analysis: Young is one of the most NBA-ready players in the draft.
He has size and strength and was super productive at Pitt the past two years. Most importantly for New Orleans, he can come in and contribute rightaway.
Daye,
Darren Collison,
Chase Budinger,
Taj Gibson and
Derrick Brown also are in themix.
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Dallas
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Eric Maynor
| Position: PG
Height: 6-3
Weight: 164
Age: 21
School: VCU |
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Analysis: The Mavs can kind of sit back and see who falls. Point guard is a need, and they'll have three interesting prospects withMaynor, Collison and
NickCalathes all on the board.
Of the three, it's hard to see them passing on Maynor. He is a four-year player who could come in and play immediately. He is a terrific floor leaderand can do a little of everything. There isn't one area in particular in which he stands out, but he can be special in lots of things.
Collison brings great speed to the table. Calathes will play in Greece this season, but he could be a nice pick down the road.
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Sacramento
(via Houston)
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Austin Daye
| Position: SF
Height: 6-11
Weight: 192
Age: 20
School: Gonzaga |
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Analysis: Daye could be in a little trouble if he slides past Detroit at No. 15.
A few other teams have interest, but there are no locks at this point. I think the Kings would seriously consider him here.
They could use help at both forward spots, and Daye has terrific upside. I think Calathes also is a real possibility here.
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Analysis: The Blazers are looking at trading this pick. But if they keep it, they can add another forward who can play both the 3 and the4. Summers already has an NBA body and the kind of shooting ability the team really covets.
Given how many players they already have on their roster, an international player like Casspi or
Jonas Jerebko also is apossibility.
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Oklahoma City
(via San Antonio)
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Chase Budinger
| Position: SG
Height: 6-7
Weight: 206
Age: 21
School: Arizona |
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Analysis: The Thunder would love to get their hands on a legitimate center, but there won't be anyoneworth gambling on at this point in the draft. If the team doesn't address its needs at the 2 earlier in the draft, Budinger could be an option. With hisshooting ability, he would be a nice complement in the backcourt to Russell Westbrook.
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Chicago
(via Denver)
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Toney Douglas
| Position: SG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 184
Age: 23
School: Florida State |
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Analysis: Douglas would be an insurance policy should
Ben Gordon bolt this summer. He's not as talented a shooter,but he's good enough to play both backcourt positions in Chicago, and his defense would earn him minutes right from the get-go.
If the Bulls trade this pick ... who knows? Although, a lot of teams trying to buy into the late first round love Casspi.
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Memphis
(via Orlando)
|
Omri Casspi
| Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 211
Age: 20
Country: Spain |
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Analysis: The Grizzlies lack toughness, and Casspi has an abundance of it. He's not the most skilled player in the draft, but fewplayers possess his grit. As an added bonus for the Grizzlies, they don't have to pay him to come over yet. There are a number of teams targeting this pickright now via trade ... so Memphis might not have it on draft night.
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Minnesota
(via Boston)
|
Jonas Jerebko
| Position: SF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 220
Age: 22
Country: Sweden |
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Analysis: It seems doubtful that the Wolves would keep three rookies on their roster this season, which gives them an interesting choice ofinternational players. Casspi would be an obvious choice. He is tough and physical and can keep developing overseas.
Victor Claver is the other. Butword is Jerebko from Sweden is the top choice at the moment.
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L.A. Lakers
|
Darren Collison
| Position: PG
Height: 6-2
Weight: 166
Age: 21
School: UCLA |
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Analysis: Collison is a small guard, something Phil Jackson isn't a big fan of. But he is super fast, has a smooth jumper and can getafter it defensively. With Derek Fisher winding down his career, he's worth a gamble here.
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Cleveland
|
Derrick Brown
| Position: PF
Height: 6-9
Weight: 225
Age: 21
School: Xavier |
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Analysis: The Cavs could lose both Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao this summer. And after getting bested by the Magic, their need for someathletic 4s who can guard players on the perimeter is paramount.
DeMarre Carroll isanother real possibility here