It's time for our first mock draft of 2012.
Although very little is set in stone at this point -- the draft order will change, players' stocks will change and we won't know
which underclassmen have officially declared for the draft until the April 29 deadline -- we can focus on what each team would likely do with its pick.
(If you want to see what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, play our
Lottery Mock Draft, which has more than 2,000 scenarios. Also check out our
Top 100 list, which is a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative draft value.)
Here's our first stab at the first round, after taking into account team needs.
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Charlotte
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Anthony Davis
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 220 pounds
Age: 19
School: Kentucky |
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Analysis: If the Bobcats are lucky enough to win the lottery, they'll land the consensus No. 1 player in the draft -- Davis. Davis is already a nightmare on the defensive end and is an emerging force on the offensive side. Pair him together with Bismack Biyombo on the front line, and I'm not sure anyone will score in the paint against the Bobcats.
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Analysis: The Wizards are desperately trying to change their culture, and landing Kidd-Gilchrist would be a major move in the right direction. He's not the most polished player in the draft, but few players work harder on either end of the floor. He cares more about winning than stats and would immediately add energy, toughness and heart to a team that urgently needs all three.
However,
Kidd-Gilchrist told reporters near the end of the regular season that he'll return to Kentucky for another season. If that holds true and the Wizards can't get him, Thomas Robinson or Harrison Barnes are their next best options.
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New Orleans
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Thomas Robinson
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 237 pounds
Age: 21
School: Kansas |
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Analysis: The Hornets have a tough call here. Andre Drummond has more upside and Perry Jones would be tempting. But if they're trying to build a team around winners, Robinson is the guy. He would bring toughness, physicality and energy to the paint for the Hornets.
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Portland (via Nets)
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Bradley Beal
| Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 195 pounds
Age: 18
School: Florida |
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Analysis: The Blazers grabbed this pick from the Nets as part of the Gerald Wallace trade last week. The pick is top-three protected, so if the Nets keep losing, it will revert back to New Jersey. For now, this is the best-case scenario for the Blazers, who have a lot of needs after blowing the team up. And shooting guard is a big one.
Beal hasn't had a domiant freshman season, but his scoring ability in the backcourt would help the Blazers get over the loss of Brandon Roy a little sooner.
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Toronto
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Harrison Barnes
| Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 19
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: The Raptors have been looking for a legit small forward for several years and Barnes would be a perfect fit. While he hasn't had the elite season we expected (those early Kobe comparisons have totally faded), he's still a lethal shooter who could turn into a Danny Granger/Glen Rice sort of player down the road.
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Detroit
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Andre Drummond
| Position: C
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 275 pounds
Age: 18
School: UConn |
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Analysis: The Pistons are in desperate need of size and athleticism in the front court. While Drummond is a bit of a gamble, it's a risk worth taking at this point in the draft. He has all the physical tools to be a dominant big man in the pros. Although he was really inconsistent during his freshman season at UConn, with time and patience he could be the perfect complement to Greg Monroe on the front line.
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Sacramento
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James Michael McAdoo
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 233 pounds
Age: 19
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: McAdoo's appearance this high might raise some eyebrows since he's been a backup for most of the season and hasn't put up great numbers. But he's played very well ever since John Henson went down with a wrist injury. Plus, his upside is really high. On the Kings, DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton take most of the shots, so they need a player like McAdoo who can make an impact without the ball.
If McAdoo doesn't declare for this year's draft, however, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Kings roll the dice with Baylor's Perry Jones.
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Cleveland
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Cody Zeller
| Position: C
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 19
School: Indiana |
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Analysis: The Cavs passed on drafting big man Jonas Valanciunas last year, so I don't think they'll pass on a big man again this year. They may have a greater need at the wing, but Zeller would give them a long-term answer at the 5.
One of the most efficient players in the country this season, Zeller has the quickness and skill level NBA teams like out of centers. The only caveat? Zeller, like Kidd-Gilchrist, is seriously considering returning to school for his sophomore season. If he does, expect the Cavs to go after a wing like Jeremy Lamb.
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Utah (via Warriors)
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Damian Lillard
| Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-2
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 21
School: Weber State |
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Analysis: The Jazz have talented young players at every position except point guard. Enes Kanter is the center of the future, Derrick Favors is set to take over at power forward, Gordon Hayward is already doing his thing at small forward, and the team is high on Alec Burks at the 2.
Enter Lillard. While the Jazz won't just draft to fill a position, Lillard is as talented as anyone in this range. He's more of a scorer than a pure point guard, but his ability to hit jump shots and get his teammates involved will be alluring to the Jazz.
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Milwaukee
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Perry Jones
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 235 pounds
Age: 20
School: Baylor |
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Analysis: The Bucks traded Andrew Bogut at the deadline for Monta Ellis. While Ellis will help with some of their scoring needs in the backcourt, the loss of Bogut creates some long-term problems up front. But with no elite center at this point in the draft, there's no exact fit here.
So I think the Bucks should do what they did with Brandon Jennings -- take the best talent available and hope they can bring out his potential.
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Portland
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Tyler Zeller
| Position: C
Height: 7-foot-0
Weight: 235 pounds
Age: 22
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: If the Blazers can land Beal with their first pick, they would likely look to fill their holes at center or point guard. In a weak point guard draft, their two available options here would be Kendall Marshall and Tony Wroten Jr. While both have strengths, I think the Blazers would go big and take Zeller. He's not going to be a star, but he runs the floor like a guard and has gotten better every year.
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New Orleans (via Wolves)
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Kendall Marshall
| Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 188 pounds
Age: 20
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: The Hornets gave up the best point guard in the NBA when they traded Chris Paul to the Clippers. They aren't going to be able to replace him in this draft. But the consolation prize is Marshall -- the best pure point guard in the draft. He wouldn't be the dynamic scorer that Paul was in New Orleans, but he would make everyone around him better.
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Phoenix
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Jared Sullinger
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 280 pounds
Age: 20
School: Ohio State |
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Analysis: Sullinger doesn't necessarily fill a need -- the Suns drafted Markieff Morris to play the 4 last year -- but he's the best player left on the board and the type of guy who could immediately give Phoenix a very different but dominant look in the paint.
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Utah
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Jeremy Lamb
| Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 185 pounds
Age: 19
School: UConn |
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Analysis: Lamb has elite talent, but his laid-back demeanor has given some scouts pause. Higher in the draft, he's a bit of a risk. But down here he's a good bargain for the Jazz as they continue to rebuild their backcourt.
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Houston (via Knicks)
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John Henson
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 21
School: North Carolina |
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Analysis: The Rockets lack long, athletic bigs, and Henson would give them a defensive presence who can guard both forward positions. He's still raw offensively, but he has a little Andrei Kirilenko in his game.
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New Jersey (via Rockets)
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Quincy Miller
| Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 210 pounds
Age: 19
School: Baylor |
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Analysis: Miller is another player on this list who might be better off returning to school. He's a blue-chip talent, but with another year to heal from an ACL tear in high school and more time in the weight room to bulk up a bit, he could go 10 spots higher in next year's draft. If he stays in the draft, the Nets won't let him slip too far.
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Boston
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Terrence Jones
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 244 pounds
Age: 20
School: Kentucky |
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Analysis: Jones is one of those players with top-five talent who doesn't play like it on a consistent basis. That is a gamble the Celtics should be willing to take at this spot in the draft. They did the same thing a few years ago with Rajon Rondo and it paid off big. The similarity between the two? Both players believed in their games, even when their coaches didn't. Jones could be the second coming of Antoine Walker.
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Denver
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Meyers Leonard
| Position: C
Height: 7-foot-0
Weight: 240 pounds
Age: 20
School: Illinois |
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Analysis: The Nuggets traded Nene for JaVale McGee, but they could still use more size in the middle. Leonard is pretty raw, but he's a terrific athlete who can play good defense right away.
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Atlanta
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Tony Wroten Jr.
| Position: PG
Height: 6-foot-5
Weight: 205 pounds
Age: 18
School: Washington |
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Analysis: The Hawks have been searching for their point guard of the future for a long time. Jeff Teague has been solid, but he doesn't have nearly the upside that Wroten has. If Wroten had a better reputation (and a better jump shot) he might be a top-five pick. Some scouts see him as another Gary Payton, but he's wild and can get out of control, and that may scare the Hawks away.
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Philadelphia
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Andrew Nicholson
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 222 pounds
Age: 22
School: St. Bonaventure |
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Analysis: The Sixers still could use size. Elton Brand won't be around forever and the team's next 4 off the bench is Lavoy Allen. Nicholson has gotten dramatically better every year and has some David West to his game. He would be a good fit in Philly and could contribute right away.
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Houston (via Mavericks)
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Austin Rivers
| Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 199 pounds
Age: 19
School: Duke |
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Analysis: The Mavericks sent this pick to the Lakers as part of the Lamar Odom trade and then the Lakers turned around and sent it to the Rockets as part of the Derek Fisher deal. The pick is top-20 protected.
There are a lot of opinions floating out there about Rivers. Many scouts have been disappointed with his play and think he needs to return to Duke for his sophomore season. But a handful think he has the potential to be special thanks to his quick crossover, high basketball IQ and killer mentality on the court. At pick No. 21, the upside-to-risk ratio strongly favors the Rockets, who really need to build around some star power.
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Memphis
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Patric Young
| Position: C
Height: 6-foot-9
Weight: 245 pounds
Age: 20
School: Florida |
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Analysis: The Grizzlies are looking for toughness and defense in the frontcourt, and Young brings both. He doesn't do much of anything on the offensive end, but he has Ben Wallace-like potential on the defensive end of the floor. Young has stated that he'll be returning to Florida for his junior season. If that's true, St. Bonaventure's Andrew Nicholson or Mississippi State's Arnett Moultrie could get the call here.
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Indiana
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Terrence Ross
| Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 190 pounds
Age: 21
School: Washington |
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Analysis: The Pacers are really stacked just about everywhere, so they'll take the best talent on the board. Ross is both an excellent athlete and a terrific shooter. He has some star power to his game, he just hasn't totally harnessed it yet.
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Boston (via Clippers)
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Arnett Moultrie
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-11
Weight: 225 pounds
Age: 21
School: Mississippi State |
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Analysis: Moultrie has all the physical tools to be a dominant NBA player. He's long and super-athletic, and he can even get things done on the perimeter. He's just taken a little longer to develop. He would be a good get here for the Celtics.
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Orlando
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C.J. Leslie
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 206 pounds
Age: 20
School: NC State |
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Analysis: Leslie may be one of the best athletes in the draft. He's still stuck a little bit between the 3 and the 4, but his game has really matured over the past few months. He's a top-10 talent and worth the risk here.
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Cleveland (via Lakers)
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Jeff Taylor
| Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-7
Weight: 225 pounds
Age: 22
School: Vanderbilt |
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Analysis: Taylor is another elite athlete who can play way above the rim. What he's lacked for most of his career is a great jump shot. But Taylor has improved dramatically in that area lately, making him a lethal weapon on both ends of the floor. The Cavs really need help at the 3, making him a nice match.
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Golden State(via Spurs)
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Dion Waiters
| Position: SG
Height: 6-foot-4
Weight: 215 pounds
Age: 20
School: Syracuse |
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Analysis: The Warriors lost one of the most relentless drivers in the game when they shipped Monta Ellis off to Milwaukee. Waiters would be able to fill some of that void as an electric scorer off the bench.
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Miami
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Draymond Green
| Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-6
Weight: 235 pounds
Age: 22
School: Michigan State |
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Analysis: The Heat need players with experience who excel in bringing out the best in their teammates. Green can be a point-forward type who does a little bit of everything. Think of him as a better-passing Udonis Haslem.
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Oklahoma City
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Mason Plumlee
| Position: PF
Height: 6-foot-10
Weight: 230 pounds
Age: 22
School: Duke |
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Analysis: Plumlee's upside is probably similar to that of the Pacers' Jeff Foster. While he won't be a dominant player on either end of the floor, he's big, he'll defend and he'll flush things around the rim.
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Chicago
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Moe Harkless
| Position: SF
Height: 6-foot-8
Weight: 190 pounds
Age: 18
School: St. John's |
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Analysis: Harkless reminds me a little of Trevor Ariza. He is a terrific scorer and defender who needs to get a more settled jump shot. Although the Bulls need a shooter, Harkless would be tough to pass up here if he's still on the board.
Next Five In: Tony Mitchell, North Texas;
Royce White, Iowa State; BJ Young, Arkansas;
C.J. McCollum, Lehigh;
Josh Smith, UCLA.