We should never expect a big number of rookies to present themselves as "the real deal" early in an NBA season. The summer league and preseason are history, as are many of their storied pasts from preps to college. NBA coaches, typically, only care about winning today and don't worry about young or fragile egos. So, thus far, we have only four rookies who have proved they can be impact players in real games, and that's it.
We can expect to see others step forward as the year evolves, but for now our top 10 is really a top 4 plus six other guys. It will be fun to see who can go from "other guy" status to impact player as winter arrives in full force.
The Top 4
ROOKIE 50 RANKINGS
We're keeping track of every NBA rook. Here are the latest Top 50 rankings.
Rank Player Stock
1 Damian Lillard
2 Dion Waiters
3 Anthony Davis
4 Jae Crowder
5 Tyler Zeller
6 Jonas Valanciunas
7 Alexey Shved
8 Kyle Singler
9 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
10 Harrison Barnes
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1. Damian Lillard, PG, Trail Blazers
There are many things Lillard is doing that are impressive, which we will be discussing at length all season. But what jumps out at me as I watch film on him is his patience and his willingness to think about the 5-on-5 game rather than the 1-on-1 game that so many point guards end up focusing on.
Lillard can score in big numbers, and it would be wrong for him to just ignore that. As a scoring threat that the defense is focused on, he opens up passing angles for his teammates. He understands that and is doing a great job of remaining a threat while looking for the best overall play.
Against a Dallas team that worked to frustrate and attack him the other night, Lillard made a play that greatly exemplifies this part of his game. With a minute to play in the third quarter and Portland trying to hang on in a road game, Lillard came off a side ball screen with Nicolas Batum, causing a defensive switch that put Vince Carter on Lillard and Darren Collison on Batum.
As Lillard squared up at the top of the key against Carter, who was playing high school basketball when Lillard was still in diapers, it looked like Lillard was going to try to take the slower Carter to the rim. But instead Lillard recognized that the Batum-Collison matchup might be the better option. So he patiently allowed Batum to body up Collison. Then in an instant, Batum faked moving up the floor and went backdoor, where Lillard easily hit him in stride. The play resulted in a nice dunk by Batum. Great players make great plays seem routine, and that is what Lillard is doing in this league already.
Waiters
2. Dion Waiters, SG, Cavaliers
It's easy to argue that Waiters has put up some of the more spectacular games thus far among rookies. But there are some troubling signs for Waiters. If he continues to use the kind of shot selection he is currently employing and still shoots as accurately as he is, then he'll be the first player his size to ever have done so. Don't take this the wrong way -- he has a long time to figure out how to play, obviously, and we have every reason to believe he will.
Waiters was fantastic in a win over the Clippers in L.A. His fearlessness and confidence was on full display that night, which must have been something the Cavs execs loved when they scouted him. Without growth, though, his ceiling will be Marcus Thornton, a quality player who is likely best suited for a "scorer off the bench" role. If Waiters focuses on taking great shots and ultimately learns how to get to the free throw line (which he did in college), then his upside is greater than Thornton's.
Davis
3. Anthony Davis, PF, Hornets
After just a week of play, we know for certain that the league is a better place when Anthony Davis is playing in it. Remember how Blake Griffin took the league by storm during his rookie season? Davis has shown similar potential. The Hornets expect to get him back from his concussion soon.
4. Jae Crowder, SF, Mavericks
Crowder reminds me of a smaller version of Kenneth Faried (as I wrote last week) and Corey Brewer, two of the best energy guys in the league. While he isn't the chaos creator that Brewer is or the monster rebounder that Faried is, Crowder is a better shooter it appears, and that projects extremely well for him and for Dallas. A combination of energy and a reliable shot is a rare thing.
Crowder will not continue to make more than 45 percent of his 3-point shots this season, but anything better than 35 percent for a player who plays as hard as he does means a long future for this second-round pick.
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The Next 6
Zeller
5. Tyler Zeller, C, Cavaliers
The second rookie to suffer a concussion and be forced to miss game action, Zeller was doing some decent things for the Cavs before the injury. He ran the floor with some purpose rather than to just change ends and showed he wants the ball in transition. However, he hasn't shown the same hunger in the half-court game, standing near the paint rather than banging a defender and demanding the ball. In time, when healthy, this would be a good way for him to increase his production and help the team.
Valanciunas
6. Jonas Valanciunas, C, Raptors
You can see that Valanciunas has been well-schooled as a big man. He runs to the rim in transition. He rolls to the rim after ball screens. And when he gets the ball high in the air on a catch down low, he leaves it there when he's trying to score. All of that is "Big Man 101" stuff.
The next step for him is to avoid the baseline, even when it looks kind of open, and to not drop toward the baseline when a double-team comes. He has decent touch and a nose for the ball, which is a good start.
Shved
7. Alexey Shved, PG, Timberwolves
Shved is another "veteran" rookie who reads the game, rather than just plays it. He has shown he can be capable as a shooter and an opportunistic driver. And, because he is reading the game, he is moving the ball to the right spots on offense, getting "Gretzkys" -- the pass that leads to the assist -- and assists. He could end up partnering well with Ricky Rubio, giving the Wolves two excellent passers on the court.
Singler
8. Kyle Singler, SF, Pistons
Detroit might be the league's worst team right now, but the Pistons have to be happy with the play of Singler. His play thus far screams "steady" and, since he has significant upside as a shooter, he looks to have a real chance at being a solid rotation player. He leads all rookies in true shooting percentage (.686) thanks to excellent shot selection. Singler is going to be part of the solution in Detroit, not part of the problem.
Kidd-
Gilchrist
9. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF, Bobcats
The Bobcats are the NBA's worst defenders so far this season, but MKG might be their top defensive player. That is unheard of in the NBA -- it often takes years for a rookie to grow into his team's best player on the defensive side of the floor.
MKG is not the quickest guy at his position, but he does a great job of rotating his hips and sliding to a deeper spot on the floor when his man attacks him by changing directions. When he unfurls his arms, he ends up being in a good spot to defend the shot.
Barnes
10. Harrison Barnes, SF, Warriors
Barnes is not shining, but his team is playing well when he is on the floor. In fact, the Warriors are often playing their best offense with him at small forward, simply because he is making the easy plays and not trying to do too much. That has allowed him to keep his turnovers down.
Barnes is playing both forward spots on offense and is so close to making a number of nice scoring plays, but he's just a little off on finishing. Expect big improvement from Barnes soon, as his coach is expertly putting him in spots that he should be able to excel in.
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Five guys who look ready to start playing better soon
Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards
First of all, he can really only get better, because he's been awful up to now. But since he gets so much playing time anyway, the game is starting to slow down for him. He earned a number of great looks against Boston, but couldn't knock down those shots. Yet.
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Andre Drummond, C, Pistons
He's doing a nice job of rolling to the rim after ball screens and just hanging around the paint, giving him a chance to make a play at the rim thanks to his size and wingspan. Given Detroit's rough start, we might see significant playing time for Drummond relatively soon to help jump-start his learning curve.
Andrew Nicholson, PF, Magic
He has a solid shot from the perimeter. He can put the ball down and drive to the paint before finishing with a soft hook. And he goes to the offensive glass fairly well. Once he locks in on his defensive rebounding role better, his playing time should improve.
Thomas Robinson, PF, Kings
This might be the last week that Robinson doesn't make the top 10 in our rankings. He is ultra-competitive and that hurts him with turnovers almost as much as it helps him on defense and the boards. Expect him to slow down on offense and try to play within himself more on that end while he continues to "beast it" in the other areas of the game.
Jared Sullinger, PF, Celtics
The Celtics are not playing their typical brand of stifling defense, but it's not because Sullinger is hurting them. He has been smart and tough on that end of the court and is moving his feet well, hedging ball screens and providing curl protection with nimble feet and active hands. He's also making an effort to sprint back on defense rather than just run.